Datasets:

ellisbrown
/

BDML25SP_hw1_processed_data

	Climate Change 2022:
	Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
	Working Group II Contribution to the
	Sixth Assessment Report of the
	Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
	Edited by
	Hans-Otto Pörtner
	Working Group II Co-ChairDebra C. Roberts
	Working Group II Co-Chair
	Melinda M. B. Tignor
	Head of TSUElvira Poloczanska
	Science Advisor to the
	WGII Co-Chairs and TSU Katja Mintenbeck
	Director of Science
	Andrés Alegría
	Graphics OfficerMarlies Craig
	Science OfficerStefanie Langsdorf
	Graphics Officer

	Sina Löschke
	Communications ManagerVincent Möller
	Science OfficerAndrew Okem
	Science OfficerBardhyl Rama
	Director of Operations
	With editorial assistance from Daniel Belling, Wolfgang Dieck, Sandra Götze, Tijama Kersher, Philisiwe Mangele,
	Bastian Maus, Anka Mühle, Komila Nabiyeva, Maike Nicolai, Almut Niebuhr, Jan Petzold, Esté Prentzler, Jussi
	Savolainen, Hanna Scheuffele, Stefan Weisfeld and Nora Weyer
	Working Group II Technical Support Unit

	© 2022 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
	The boundaries of the data and the designations used do not imply official endorsement, acceptance or the expression of any opinion whatsoever
	on the part of the IPCC or the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the
	delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
	Please use the following reference to cite the whole report:
	IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the
	Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf,
	S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY , USA,
	3056 pp., doi:10.1017/9781009325844.
	Front cover artwork: A Borrowed Planet - Inherited from our ancestors. On loan from our children. by Alisa Singer www.environmentalgraphiti.org
	© 2022 Alisa Singer

	iii
	ContentsForeword � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � vii
	Preface � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ix
	Dedication � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � xi
	Summary for Policymakers � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 3
	Technical Summary � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 37
	Chapter 1 P oint of Departure and Key Concepts � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 121
	Chapter 2 T errestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems and Their Services � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 197
	Chapter 3 O ceans and Coastal Ecosystems and Their Services � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 379
	Chapter 4 Water � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 551
	Chapter 5 F ood, Fibre and Other Ecosystem Products � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 713
	Chapter 6 Cities , Settlements and Key Infrastructure � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 907
	Chapter 7 Health, Wellbeing and the Changing Structure of Communities � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1041
	Chapter 8 P overty, Livelihoods and Sustainable Development � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1171
	Chapter 9 Africa � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1285
	Chapter 10 Asia � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1457
	Chapter 11 Australasia � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1581
	Chapter 12 Central and South America � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1689
	Chapter 13 Europe � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1817
	Chapter 14 North America � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1929
	Chapter 15 Small Islands � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2043
	Cross-Chapter Paper 1 Biodiversity Hotspots � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2123
	Cross-Chapter Paper 2 Cities and Settlements by the Sea � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2163
	Cross-Chapter Paper 3 Deserts , Semiarid Areas and Desertification � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2195
	Cross-Chapter Paper 4 Mediterranean Region � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2233
	Cross-Chapter Paper 5 Mountains � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2273Front Matter
	Chapters and
	Cross-Chapter PapersTSSPM

	AnnexesCross-Chapter Paper 6
	P
	olar Regions � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2319
	Cross-Chapter Paper 7 T ropical Forests � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2369
	Chapter 16 K ey Risks across Sectors and Regions � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2411
	Chapter 17 Decision-Making Options for Managing Risk � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2539
	Chapter 18 Climate Resilient Development P athways � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2655
	Annex I Global to Regional Atlas � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2811
	Annex II Glossary � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2897
	Annex III Acronyms � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2931
	Annex IV Contributors to the Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC Sixth
	Assessment Report � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2939
	Annex V Expert Reviewers of the Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC Sixth
	Assessment Report � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2965
	Index � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 3005 Index

	Foreword, Preface
	and Dedication

	viiForeword
	Foreword
	‘Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’, the
	Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
	Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report presents a comprehensive
	assessment of the current state of knowledge of the observed impacts
	and projected risks of climate change as well as the adaptation options.
	The report confirms the strong interactions of the natural, social and
	climate systems and that human-induced climate change has caused
	widespread adverse impacts to nature and people. It is clear that
	across sectors and regions, the most vulnerable people and systems are
	disproportionately affected and climate extremes have led to irreversible
	impacts. The assessment underscores the importance of limiting global
	warming to 1.5°C if we are to achieve a fair, equitable and sustainable
	world. While the assessment concluded that there are feasible and
	effective adaptation options which can reduce risks to nature and
	people, it also found that there are limits to adaptation and that there
	is a need for increased ambition in both adaptation and mitigation.
	These and other findings confirm and enhance our understanding of the
	importance of climate resilient development across sectors and regions
	and, as such, demands the urgent attention of both policymakers and
	the general public.
	As an intergovernmental body jointly established in 1988 by the
	World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations
	Environment Programme (UNEP), the IPCC has provided policymakers
	with the most authoritative and objective scientific and technical
	assessments. Beginning in 1990, this series of IPCC Assessment Reports,
	Special Reports, Technical Papers, Methodology Reports and other
	products have become standard works of reference.
	This Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment
	Report contains important new scientific, technical and socio-economic
	knowledge that can be used to produce information and services for
	assisting society to act to address the challenges of climate change.
	The timing is particularly significant, as this information provides a
	new impetus, through clear assessment findings, to inform the first
	Global Stocktake under the United Nations Framework Convention on
	Climate Change.
	This Working Group II assessment was made possible thanks to the
	commitment and dedication of many hundreds of experts worldwide, representing a wide range of disciplines. WMO and UNEP are proud
	that so many of the experts belong to their communities and networks.
	We express our deep gratitude to all authors, review editors and expert
	reviewers for devoting their knowledge, expertise and time especially
	given the challenges created by the Covid pandemic. We would like
	to thank the staff of the Working Group II Technical Support Unit, the
	WGII Science Advisor and the IPCC Secretariat for their dedication.
	We are also grateful to the governments that supported their scientists'
	participation in developing this report and that contributed to the IPCC
	Trust Fund to provide for the essential participation of experts from
	developing countries and countries with economies in transition. We
	would like to express our appreciation to the government of Ethiopia
	for hosting the scoping meeting for the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report,
	to the governments of South Africa, Nepal, Portugal and Guatemala for
	hosting drafting meetings of the Working Group II contribution and to
	the government of Germany for hosting the Twelfth Session of Working
	Group II held virtually for approval of the Working Group II Report. The
	generous financial support by the government of Germany and the
	logistical support by the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for
	Polar and Marine Research (Germany), enabled the smooth operation
	of the Working Group II Technical Support Unit in Bremen, Germany.
	Additional funding from the Governments of Germany, Norway and
	New Zealand provided key support to the Technical Support Unit office
	in Durban, South Africa.
	We would particularly like to thank Dr Hoesung Lee, Chairman of the
	IPCC, for his direction of the IPCC and we express our deep gratitude to
	Dr Hans-Otto Pörtner and Dr Debra Roberts, the Co-Chairs of Working
	Group II for their tireless leadership throughout the development and
	production of this report.
	Climate change is a long-term challenge, but the need for urgent
	action now is clear. The conclusion of the report’s Summary for
	Policymakers summarizes this succinctly. ‘The cumulative scientific
	evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human well-
	being and planetary health. Any further delay in concerted anticipatory
	global action on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly
	closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable
	future for all.’ We couldn’t agree more.
	Petteri Taalas
	Secretary-General
	World Meteorological Organization
	Inger Andersen
	Executive Director
	United Nations Environment Programme

	ixPreface
	Preface
	The Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report
	of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides
	a comprehensive assessment of the scientific, technical and socio-
	economic literature relevant to impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.
	It builds upon the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth
	Assessment Report, the three Special Reports of the Sixth Assessment
	cycle: ‘Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the
	impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and
	related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of
	strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change,
	sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty (SR1.5)’;
	‘Climate Change and Land: An IPCC Special Report on climate change,
	desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food
	security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems (SRCCL)’;
	‘IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing
	Climate (SROCC)’, and the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC
	Sixth Assessment Report.
	The report recognizes the interactions of climate, ecosystems and
	biodiversity, and human societies, and integrates knowledge more
	strongly across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences
	than earlier IPCC assessments. The assessment of climate change
	impacts and risks as well as adaptation is set against concurrently
	unfolding non-climatic global trends e.g., biodiversity loss, overall
	unsustainable consumption of natural resources, land and ecosystem
	degradation, rapid urbanisation, human demographic shifts, social and
	economic inequalities and a pandemic.
	Working Group II introduces several new components in its latest
	report: These include the novel cross-chapter papers which provide
	focused assessments and updates from the special reports and include
	coverage of topics such as biodiversity hotspots, cities and settlements
	by the sea, deserts and desertification, mountains, tropical forests as
	well as the Mediterranean and polar regions. Another new component
	is an atlas that presents data and findings on observed climate change
	impacts and projected risks from global to regional scales, thus offering
	even more insights for decision makers. The Working Group II Report is
	based on the published scientific and technical literature accepted for
	publication by 1 September 2021.
	Scope of the Report
	During the process of scoping and approving the outline of its Sixth
	Assessment Report, the IPCC focussed on those aspects of the current
	knowledge of climate change that were judged to be most relevant to
	policymakers. In this report, Working Group II examines the impacts
	of climate change on nature and people around the globe. It explores
	future impacts at different levels of warming and the resulting risks,
	and offers options to strengthen nature’s and society’s resilience to
	ongoing climate change, to fight hunger, poverty, and inequality and
	keep Earth a place worth living on – for current as well as for future
	generations.Structure of the Report
	This report consists of a short Summary for Policymakers, a Technical
	Summary, eighteen Chapters, seven Cross-Chapter Papers, five Annexes
	including the Global to Regional Atlas, as well as online Supplementary
	Material.
	The introductory chapter (Chapter 1) provides the reader with the
	framing and context of the report and highlights key concepts used
	throughout the report.
	The sectoral chapters (Chapters 2–8) cover risks, adaptation and
	sustainability for systems impacted by climate change. They assess
	impacts, risks, adaptation options and limits and the interactions of
	risks and responses for climate resilient development for ecosystems,
	water, food, cities, human health, communities and livelihoods.
	The regional chapters (Chapters 9–15) assess the observed impacts
	and projected risks at regional and sub-regional levels for Africa, Asia,
	Australasia, Central and South America, Europe, North America and
	Small Islands. They assess adaptation options including limits, barriers
	and adaptive capacity, as well as the interaction of risks and responses
	for climate resilient development.
	The Cross-Chapter Papers (1–7) consider additional regionalisation’s
	including polar regions, tropical forests, deserts, mountains and the
	Mediterranean, as well as highlighting the topics of biodiversity
	hotspots and cities by the sea. The cross-chapter papers assess observed
	impacts and projected risks of climate change, vulnerability, adaptation
	options and, where applicable, climate resilient development.
	The synthesis chapters (Chapters 16–18) address sustainable devel-
	opment pathways integrating adaptation and mitigation. They assess
	key risks across sectors and regions (Chapter 16) and decision-making
	options for managing risk (Chapter 17) and the ways climate impacts
	and risks hinder climate resilient development in different sectoral and
	regional contexts as well as the pathways to achieving climate resilient
	development (Chapter 18).
	The Process
	This Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment
	Report represents the combined efforts of hundreds of experts in the
	scientific, technological and socio-economic fields of climate science
	and has been prepared in accordance with rules and procedures
	established by the IPCC. A scoping meeting for the Sixth Assessment
	Report was held in May 2017 and the outlines for the contributions
	of the three Working Groups were approved at the 46th Session
	of the Panel in September 2017. Governments and IPCC observer
	organisations nominated experts for the author team. The team of 231
	Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors plus 39 Review Editors
	selected by the Working Group II Bureau was accepted at the 55th

	x
	PrefacePreface
	Session of the IPCC Bureau in January 2018. In addition, more than
	675 Contributing Authors provided draft text and information to the
	author teams at their request. Drafts prepared by the authors were
	subject to two rounds of formal review and revision followed by a final
	round of government comments on the Summary for Policymakers. A
	total of 62,418 written review comments were submitted by more than
	1600 individual expert reviewers and 51 governments. The Review
	Editors for each chapter monitored the review process to ensure that
	all substantive review comments received appropriate consideration.
	The Summary for Policymakers was approved line-by-line and the
	underlying report was then accepted at the 12th Session of IPCC
	Working Group II from 14 to 27 February 2022.
	Acknowledgements
	We express our deepest appreciation for the expertise and commitment
	shown by the Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors throughout
	the process. They were ably helped by the many Contributing Authors
	who supported the drafting or the report. The Review Editors were
	critical in assisting the author teams and ensuring the integrity of
	the review process. We are grateful to the Chapter Scientists who
	supported the chapter and cross-chapter paper teams in the delivery of
	the report. We would also like to thank all the expert and government
	reviewers who submitted comments on the drafts.
	The production of the report was guided by members of the Working
	Group II Bureau. We would like to thank our colleagues who supported
	and advised us in the development of the report: Working Group II Vice-
	Chairs Andreas Fischlin, Mark Howden, Carlos Méndez, Joy Jacqueline
	Pereira, Roberto A. Sánchez-Rodríguez, Sergey Semenov, Pius Yanda,
	and Taha M. Zatari. Our appreciation also goes to Ko Barrett, Thelma
	Krug, and Youba Sokona, Vice Chairs of IPCC, who ably supported us
	during the planning process and approval.
	Our sincere thanks go to the hosts and organizers of the Scoping
	Meeting, the four Lead Author Meetings, and the Working Group II
	Session. We gratefully acknowledge the support from the United
	Nations Economic Commission for Africa; the Government of South
	Africa and the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment;
	the Government of Nepal and the International Centre for Integrated
	Mountain Development; the Government of Portugal, the Center for
	Marine Sciences, and the University of Algarve; the Government of
	Guatemala and the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources; and the Government of Germany. We also note with appreciation the
	additional support for inclusivity training provided by the International
	Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. The support provided by
	many governments as well as through the IPCC Trust Fund for the many
	experts participating in the process is also noted with appreciation.
	The staff of the IPCC Secretariat based in Geneva provided a wide
	range of support for which we would like to thank Abdalah Mokssit,
	Secretary of the IPCC, Deputy Secretaries, Ermira Fida and Kerstin
	Stendahl, and their colleagues Jesbin Baidya, Laura Biagioni, Annie
	Courtin, Oksana Ekzarkho, Judith Ewa, Joelle Fernandez, Jennifer
	Lew Schneider, Jonathan Lynn, Andrej Mahecic, Nina Peeva, Sophie
	Schlingemann, Mxolisi Shongwe, Melissa Walsh, and Werani Zabula.
	The report production was managed by the Technical Support Unit of
	IPCC Working Group II, through the generous financial support of the
	German Federal Ministry for Education and Research and the Alfred
	Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research.
	Additional funding from the Governments of Germany, Norway and
	New Zealand supports the Working Group II Technical Support Unit
	office in Durban, South Africa. Without the support of all these bodies
	this report would not have been possible.
	This Report could not have been prepared without the dedication,
	commitment, and professionalism of the members of the Working
	Group II Technical Support Unit and Science Advisor: Melinda Tignor,
	Elvira Poloczanska, Katja Mintenbeck, Andrés Alegría, Marlies Craig,
	Sandra Götze, Tijama Kersher, Stefanie Langsdorf, Sina Löschke,
	Philisiwe Manqele, Vincent Möller, Anka Mühle, Komila Nabiyeva,
	Almut Niebuhr, Andrew Okem, Esté Prentzler, Bardhyl Rama, Jussi
	Savolainen, and Stefan Weisfeld. Additional contributions from Daniel
	Belling, Wolfgang Dieck, Bastian Maus, Maike Nicolai, Jan Petzold,
	Hanna Scheuffele, and Nora Weyer are recalled with appreciation. The
	support provided by Nina Hunter and Michelle North is also recognized.
	Our warmest thanks go to the collegial and collaborative support
	provided by Working Group I and Working Group III Co-Chairs,
	Vice-Chairs and Technical Support Units. In addition, the following
	contributions are gratefully acknowledged: le-tex publishing services
	GmbH (copyedit and layout), Marilyn Anderson (index).
	And a final, special thank you to the colleagues, family and friends who
	supported us through the many long hours and days spent at home
	and away from home while producing this report.
	Hans-Otto Pörtner
	IPCC Working Group II Co-Chair
	Debra C. Roberts
	IPCC Working Group II Co-Chair

	xi
	DedicationDedication
	Bob (Robert) Scholes
	(28 October 1957 – 28 April 2021)
	The chapter on Africa of the Working Group II Contribution to
	the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
	on Climate Change (IPCC), is dedicated to the memory of Bob
	Scholes who was one of the Review Editors for the chapter.
	Bob, one of the world’s leading climate change scientists, was a
	Professor of Systems Ecology, a Director of the Global Change
	Institute and a Distinguished Professor at the University of
	the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa. Known for
	his towering intellect and insatiable curiosity, Bob published
	widely in the fields of savanna ecology, earth observation
	and global change. As a well-respected member of the global
	research community he played a major role in the IPCC as a Lead
	Author and Co-ordinating Lead Author during the third, fourth
	and fifth assessment cycles and as Co-Chair of the IPBES Land
	Degradation and Ecosystem Assessment. He was also a leading
	figure in African scientific circles and undertook multidisciplinary
	research to support policy development, risk assessment and
	development planning in South Africa and on the continent.
	Bob was acutely aware of the need to build a more equitable
	and just society and was always generous with his knowledge
	and wisdom. He will be remembered as a remarkable role model,
	inspirational teacher and a thoughtful mentor to both students
	and colleagues. He was a son of African soil and dedicated
	much of his life to preserving Africa’s natural heritage for future
	generations. But he was also at home anywhere on Earth – truly
	a person of the planet. Bob lived life to its fullest, as was evident
	in his love of gourmet cooking.
	Bob’s loss is felt deeply by all who knew him, and he will be
	remembered as a multi-talented and passionate scientist who
	motivated everyone to avoid complacency, think critically and to
	use their knowledge to improve the world.
	Hamba kahle Bob.
	Rebecca Mary Bernadette Harris
	(01 August 1969 – 24 December 2021)
	Chapter 2, ‘Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and their
	services’, and Cross-Chapter Paper 3, ‘Deserts, semi-arid areas
	and desertification’ of the Working Group II contribution to the
	IPCC Sixth Assessment Report are dedicated to the memory of
	Rebecca Harris, who was one of the Lead Authors.
	Bec was the Director of the Climate Futures Program at the Univer -
	sity of Tasmania. This award-winning team is globally recognised
	for its impacts and adaptation work including for the skiing and
	wine industries, biosecurity threats to agriculture, and what cli-
	mate change meant for Tasmanian fire management. Bec helped
	both government and industry partners better assess their expo-
	sure to climate risk, and develop adaptation solutions. A highlight
	is the work that she launched in 2020: Australia’s Wine Future: A
	Climate Atlas. Bec oversaw this multidisciplinary climate model-
	ling and adaptation project (2016-2020) involving 15 researchers
	from six organisations, bringing national recognition to her work.
	Prior to starting her PhD studies relatively late in life, Bec worked
	in invertebrate and botanical biodiversity assessment, island
	biogeography and disturbance ecology. In the short decade-long
	research career, Bec authored 66 publications, won numerous
	research contracts and consultancy projects and in 2016 was
	awarded a prestigious Humboldt Fellowship.
	Bec also supervised many honours and PhD students over the
	last decade and was a mentor and sponsor for many early career
	researchers. She was particularly passionate about supporting
	women in science. She was an inspiring lecturer and was also
	committed to enhancing community climate literacy as an avenue
	for making change. She had a talent for translating the complex
	science work she undertook for non-expert audiences in a way
	that was clear and impactful.
	As a researcher and scholar, Bec is an exemplar, and she will be
	very sorely missed.

	Summary for
	Policymakers

	SPM3
	Summary for Policymakers
	Drafting Authors: Hans-O. Pörtner (Germany), Debra C. Roberts (South Africa), Helen Adams
	(UK), Carolina Adler (Switzerland/Chile/Australia), Paulina Aldunce (Chile), Elham Ali (Egypt),
	Rawshan Ara Begum (Malaysia/Australia/Bangladesh), Richard Betts (UK), Rachel Bezner Kerr
	(Canada/USA), Robbert Biesbroek (The Netherlands), Joern Birkmann (Germany), Kathryn Bowen
	(Australia), Edwin Castellanos (Guatemala), Guéladio Cissé (Mauritania/Switzerland/France),
	Andrew Constable (Australia), Wolfgang Cramer (France), David Dodman (Jamaica/UK), Siri
	H. Eriksen (Norway), Andreas Fischlin (Switzerland), Matthias Garschagen (Germany), Bruce
	Glavovic (New Zealand/South Africa), Elisabeth Gilmore (USA/Canada), Marjolijn Haasnoot (The
	Netherlands), Sherilee Harper (Canada), Toshihiro Hasegawa (Japan), Bronwyn Hayward (New
	Zealand), Yukiko Hirabayashi (Japan), Mark Howden (Australia), Kanungwe Kalaba (Zambia),
	Wolfgang Kiessling (Germany), Rodel Lasco (Philippines), Judy Lawrence (New Zealand),
	Maria Fernanda Lemos (Brazil), Robert Lempert (USA), Debora Ley (Mexico/Guatemala), Tabea
	Lissner (Germany), Salvador Lluch-Cota (Mexico), Sina Loeschke (Germany), Simone Lucatello
	(Mexico), Yong Luo (China), Brendan Mackey (Australia), Shobha Maharaj (Germany/Trinidad and
	Tobago), Carlos Mendez (Venezuela), Katja Mintenbeck (Germany), Vincent Möller (Germany),
	Mariana Moncassim Vale (Brazil), Mike D Morecroft (UK), Aditi Mukherji (India), Michelle Mycoo
	(Trinidad and Tobago), Tero Mustonen (Finland), Johanna Nalau (Australia/Finland), Andrew
	Okem (SouthAfrica/Nigeria), Jean Pierre Ometto (Brazil), Camille Parmesan (France/USA/UK),
	Mark Pelling (UK), Patricia Pinho (Brazil), Elvira Poloczanska (UK/Australia), Marie-Fanny Racault
	(UK/France), Diana Reckien (The Netherlands/Germany), Joy Pereira (Malaysia), Aromar Revi
	(India), Steven Rose (USA), Roberto Sanchez-Rodriguez (Mexico), E. Lisa F . Schipper (Sweden/
	UK), Daniela Schmidt (UK/Germany), David Schoeman (Australia), Rajib Shaw (Japan), Chandni
	Singh (India), William Solecki (USA), Lindsay Stringer (UK), Adelle Thomas (Bahamas), Edmond
	Totin (Benin), Christopher Trisos (South Africa), Maarten van Aalst (The Netherlands), David Viner
	(UK), Morgan Wairiu (Solomon Islands), Rachel Warren (UK), Pius Yanda (Tanzania), Zelina Zaiton
	Ibrahim (Malaysia)
	Drafting Contributing Authors: Rita Adrian (Germany), Marlies Craig (South Africa),
	Frode Degvold (Norway), Kristie L. Ebi (USA), Katja Frieler (Germany), Ali Jamshed (Germany/
	Pakistan), Joanna McMillan (German/Australia), Reinhard Mechler (Austria), Mark New (South
	Africa), Nicholas P . Simpson (South Africa/Zimbabwe), Nicola Stevens (South Africa)
	Visual Conception and Information Design: Andrés Alegría (Germany/Honduras), Stefanie
	Langsdorf (Germany)
	This Summary for Policymakers should be cited as:
	IPCC, 2022: Summary for Policymakers [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Tignor,
	A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V . Möller, A. Okem (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation
	and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
	on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig,
	S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V . Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York,
	NY , USA, pp. 3–33, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.001.

	4SPM
	Summary for PolicymakersTable of Contents
	A: Introduction �� 5
	Box SPM.1 \| AR6 Common Climate Dimensions, Global Warming Levels and Reference Periods �� 7
	B: Observed and Projected Impacts and Risks �� 8
	Observed Impacts from Climate Change �� 9
	Vulnerability and Exposure of Ecosystems and People �� 12
	Risks in the near term (2021–2040) �� 13
	Mid to Long-term Risks (2041–2100) �� 14
	Complex, Compound and Cascading Risks �� 18
	Impacts of Temporary Overshoot �� 19
	C: Adaptation Measures and Enabling Conditions �� 20
	Current Adaptation and its Benefits �� 20
	Future Adaptation Options and their Feasibility �� 21
	Limits to Adaptation �� 26
	Avoiding Maladaptation �� 27
	Enabling Conditions �� 27
	D: Climate Resilient Development �� 28
	Conditions for Climate Resilient Development �� 29
	Enabling Climate Resilient Development �� 29
	Climate Resilient Development for Natural and Human Systems �� 31
	Achieving Climate Resilient Development �� 33

	5SPM
	Summary for PolicymakersA: Introduction
	This Summary for Policymakers (SPM) presents key findings of the Working Group II (WGII) contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of
	the IPCC1. The report builds on the WGII contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC, three Special Reports2, and the Working
	Group I (WGI) contribution to the AR6 cycle.
	This report recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity3, and human societies (Figure SPM.1) and integrates
	knowledge more strongly across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences than earlier IPCC assessments. The assessment of climate
	change impacts and risks as well as adaptation is set against concurrently unfolding non-climatic global trends e.g., biodiversity loss, overall
	unsustainable consumption of natural resources, land and ecosystem degradation, rapid urbanisation, human demographic shifts, social and
	economic inequalities and a pandemic.
	The scientific evidence for each key finding is found in the 18 chapters of the underlying report and in the 7 cross-chapter papers as well as the
	integrated synthesis presented in the Technical Summary (hereafter TS) and referred to in curly brackets {}. Based on scientific understanding, key
	findings can be formulated as statements of fact or associated with an assessed level of confidence using the IPCC calibrated language4. The WGII
	Global to Regional Atlas (Annex I) facilitates exploration of key synthesis findings across the WGII regions.
	The concept of risk is central to all three AR6 Working Groups. A risk framing and the concepts of adaptation, vulnerability, exposure, resilience,
	equity and justice, and transformation provide alternative, overlapping, complementary, and widely used entry points to the literature assessed
	in this WGII report.
	Across all three AR6 working groups, risk5 provides a framework for understanding the increasingly severe, interconnected and often irreversible
	impacts of climate change on ecosystems, biodiversity, and human systems; differing impacts across regions, sectors and communities; and
	how to best reduce adverse consequences for current and future generations. In the context of climate change, risk can arise from the dynamic
	interactions among climate-related hazards6 (see Working Group I), the exposure7 and vulnerability8 of affected human and ecological systems.
	The risk that can be introduced by human responses to climate change is a new aspect considered in the risk concept. This report identifies 127
	key risks9. {1.3, 16.5}
	The vulnerability of exposed human and natural systems is a component of risk, but also, independently, an important focus in the literature.
	Approaches to analysing and assessing vulnerability have evolved since previous IPCC assessments. Vulnerability is widely understood to differ
	within communities and across societies, regions and countries, also changing through time.
	Adaptation10 plays a key role in reducing exposure and vulnerability to climate change. Adaptation in ecological systems includes autonomous
	adjustments through ecological and evolutionary processes. In human systems, adaptation can be anticipatory or reactive, as well as incremental
	1 Decision IPCC/XLVI-3, The assessment covers scientific literature accepted for publication by 1 September 2021.
	2 The three Special Reports are: ‘Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission
	pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty (SR1.5)’; ‘Climate Change and Land. An IPCC
	Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems (SRCCL)’; ‘IPCC Special Report
	on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC)’.
	3 Biodiversity: Biodiversity or biological diversity means the variability among living organisms from all sources including, among other things, terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems, and the
	ecological complexes of which they are part; this includes diversity within species, between species, and of ecosystems.
	4 Each finding is grounded in an evaluation of underlying evidence and agreement. A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high and very high, and typeset in italics,
	e.g., medium confidence. The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%,
	as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., very likely. This is consistent with AR5 and the other AR6 Reports.
	5 Risk is defined as the potential for adverse consequences for human or ecological systems, recognising the diversity of values and objectives associated with such systems.
	6 Hazard is defined as the potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property,
	infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and environmental resources. Physical climate conditions that may be associated with hazards are assessed in Working Group I as climatic
	impact-drivers.
	7 Exposure is defined as the presence of people; livelihoods; species or ecosystems; environmental functions, services and resources; infrastructure; or economic, social or cultural assets in places and
	settings that could be adversely affected.
	8 Vulnerability in this report is defined as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected and encompasses a variety of concepts and elements, including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and
	lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
	9 Key risks have potentially severe adverse consequences for humans and social-ecological systems resulting from the interaction of climate related hazards with vulnerabilities of societies and systems
	exposed.
	10 Adaptation is defined, in human systems, as the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects in order to moderate harm or take advantage of beneficial opportunities. In natural
	systems, adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate this.

	6SPM
	Summary for Policymakers
	Human Society
	Limits to adaptation
	Losses and damagesClimate Change
	causes
	Impacts and Risks
	Human Systems
	Transitions
	Societal\|E nergy
	Industry \| Urban, Rural
	& InfrastructureFuture Climate Change
	Limiting Global Warming
	s
	ral
	Ecosystems
	Transitions
	Land\|Freshwater
	Coastal \|Ocean
	Ecosystems and
	their biodiversityEcosystems
	including biodiversity
	Limits to adaptation
	Losses and damages(a) Main interactions and trendsFrom climate risk to climate resilient development: climate, ecosystems (including biodiversity) and human society as coupled systems
	n
	s
	includ
	Lim
	Risks
	VulnerabilityThe risk propeller shows that risk emerges from the overlap of:
	...of human systems, ecosystems and their biodiversityExposur e Climate hazard(s)Governance
	Finance
	Knowledge and capacity
	Catalysing conditions
	Technologies From urgent to
	timely actionprovision
	Livelihoods,Ecosystem
	Servicesadaptto,mitigate impactsimpacts
	Ecosystembasedapproaches
	conserve,restore
	impact
	adaptsto,mitigatesGreenhousegasemissionsprovision
	Livelihoods,Ecosystem
	Servicesadapts,maladapts,mitigatesimpactsimpacts
	conserves,restores
	impactsadaptto,mitigate Climate Resilient
	Development
	Human health & well-being
	equity, justice
	Ecosystem health
	Planetary health(b) Options to reduce climate risks and establish resilience
	Figure SPM.1 \| This report has a strong focus on the interactions among the coupled systems climate, ecosystems (including their biodiversity) and human society. These interactions are the basis of emerging risks
	from climate change, ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss and, at the same time, offer opportunities for the future.
	(a) Human society causes climate change. Climate change, through hazards, exposure and vulnerability generates impacts and risks that can surpass limits to adaptation and result in losses and damages. Human society can adapt to,
	maladapt and mitigate climate change, ecosystems can adapt and mitigate within limits. Ecosystems and their biodiversity provision livelihoods and ecosystem services. Human society impacts ecosystems and can restore and conserve them.
	(b) Meeting the objectives of climate resilient development thereby supporting human, ecosystem and planetary health, as well as human well-being, requires society and ecosystems to move over (transition) to a more resilient state.
	The recognition of climate risks can strengthen adaptation and mitigation actions and transitions that reduce risks. Taking action is enabled by governance, finance, knowledge and capacity building, technology and catalysing conditions.
	Transformation entails system transitions strengthening the resilience of ecosystems and society (Section D). In a) arrow colours represent principle human society interactions (blue), ecosystem (including biodiversity) interactions (green)
	and the impacts of climate change and human activities, including losses and damages, under continued climate change (red). In b) arrow colours represent human system interactions (blue), ecosystem (including biodiversity) interactions
	(green) and reduced impacts from climate change and human activities (grey). {1.2, Figure 1.2, Figure TS. 2}

	7SPM
	Summary for Policymakersand/ or transformational. The latter changes the fundamental attributes of a social-ecological system in anticipation of climate change and its
	impacts. Adaptation is subject to hard and soft limits11.
	Resilience12 in the literature has a wide range of meanings. Adaptation is often organized around resilience as bouncing back and returning to
	a previous state after a disturbance. More broadly the term describes not just the ability to maintain essential function, identity and structure,
	but also the capacity for transformation.
	This report recognises the value of diverse forms of knowledge such as scientific, as well as Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge in
	understanding and evaluating climate adaptation processes and actions to reduce risks from human-induced climate change. AR6 highlights
	adaptation solutions which are effective, feasible13, and conform to principles of justice14. The term climate justice, while used in different ways in
	different contexts by different communities, generally includes three principles: distributive justice which refers to the allocation of burdens and
	benefits among individuals, nations and generations; procedural justice which refers to who decides and participates in decision-making; and
	recognition which entails basic respect and robust engagement with and fair consideration of diverse cultures and perspectives.
	Effectiveness refers to the extent to which an action reduces vulnerability and climate-related risk, increases resilience, and avoids maladaptation15.
	This report has a particular focus on transformation16 and system transitions in energy; land, ocean, coastal and freshwater ecosystems; urban,
	rural and infrastructure; and industry and society. These transitions make possible the adaptation required for high levels of human health and
	well-being, economic and social resilience, ecosystem health17, and planetary health18 (Figure SPM.1). These system transitions are also important
	for achieving the low global warming levels (Working Group III) that would avoid many limits to adaptation11. The report also assesses economic
	and non-economic losses and damages19. This report labels the process of implementing mitigation and adaptation together in support of
	sustainable development for all as climate resilient development20.
	Box SPM.1 \| AR6 Common Climate Dimensions, Global Warming Levels and Reference Periods
	Assessments of climate risks consider possible future climate change, societal development and responses. This report assesses literature
	including that based on climate model simulations that are part of the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase
	(CMIP5, CMIP6) of the World Climate Research Programme. Future projections are driven by emissions and/or concentrations from
	illustrative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)21 and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)22 scenarios, respectively23.
	Climate impacts literature is based primarily on climate projections assessed in AR5 or earlier, or assumed global warming levels, though
	some recent impacts literature uses newer projections based on the CMIP6 exercise. Given differences in the impacts literature regarding
	11 Adaptation limits: The point at which an actor’s objectives (or system needs) cannot be secured from intolerable risks through adaptive actions.
	Hard adaptation limit—No adaptive actions are possible to avoid intolerable risks.
	Soft adaptation limit—Options may exist but are currently not available to avoid intolerable risks through adaptive action.
	12 Resilience in this report is defined as the capacity of social, economic and ecosystems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganising in ways that maintain their
	essential function, identity and structure as well as biodiversity in case of ecosystems while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation. Resilience is a positive attribute
	when it maintains such a capacity for adaptation, learning, and/or transformation.
	13 Feasibility refers to the potential for an adaptation option to be implemented.
	14 Justice is concerned with setting out the moral or legal principles of fairness and equity in the way people are treated, often based on the ethics and values of society. Social justice comprises just or
	fair relations within society that seek to address the distribution of wealth, access to resources, opportunity and support according to principles of justice and fairness. Climate justice comprises justice
	that links development and human rights to achieve a rights-based approach to addressing climate change.
	15 Maladaptation refers to actions that may lead to increased risk of adverse climate-related outcomes, including via increased greenhouse gas emissions, increased or shifted vulnerability to climate
	change, more inequitable outcomes, or diminished welfare, now or in the future. Most often, maladaptation is an unintended consequence.
	16 Transformation refers to a change in the fundamental attributes of natural and human systems.
	17 Ecosystem health: a metaphor used to describe the condition of an ecosystem, by analogy with human health. Note that there is no universally accepted benchmark for a healthy ecosystem. Rather,
	the apparent health status of an ecosystem is judged on the ecosystem’s resilience to change, with details depending upon which metrics (such as species richness and abundance) are employed in
	judging it and which societal aspirations are driving the assessment.
	18 Planetary health: a concept based on the understanding that human health and human civilisation depend on ecosystem health and the wise stewardship of ecosystems.
	19 In this report, the term ‘losses and damages’ refers to adverse observed impacts and/or projected risks and can be economic and/or non-economic.
	20 In the WGII report, climate resilient development refers to the process of implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation measures to support sustainable development for all.
	21 RCP-based scenarios are referred to as RCPy, where ‘y’ refers to the level of radiative forcing (in watts per square meter, or W m-2) resulting from the scenario in the year 2100.
	22 SSP-based scenarios are referred to as SSPx-y, where ‘SSPx’ refers to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway describing the socioeconomic trends underlying the scenarios, and ‘y’ refers to the level of
	radiative forcing (in watts per square meter, or W m-2) resulting from the scenario in the year 2100.
	23 IPCC is neutral with regard to the assumptions underlying the SSPs, which do not cover all possible scenarios. Alternative scenarios may be considered or developed.

	8SPM
	Summary for Policymakerssocioeconomic details and assumptions, WGII chapters contextualize impacts with respect to exposure, vulnerability and adaptation as
	appropriate for their literature, this includes assessments regarding sustainable development and climate resilient development. There are
	many emissions and socioeconomic pathways that are consistent with a given global warming outcome. These represent a broad range
	of possibilities as available in the literature assessed that affect future climate change exposure and vulnerability. Where available, WGII
	also assesses literature that is based on an integrative SSP-RCP framework where climate projections obtained under the RCP scenarios
	are analysed against the backdrop of various illustrative SSPs22. The WGII assessment combines multiple lines of evidence including
	impacts modelling driven by climate projections, observations, and process understanding. {1.2, 16.5, 18.2, CCB CLIMATE, WGI AR6
	SPM.C, WGI AR6 Box SPM.1, WGI AR6 1.6, WGI AR6 12, AR5 WGI}
	A common set of reference years and time periods are adopted for assessing climate change and its impacts and risks: the reference
	period 1850–1900 approximates pre-industrial global surface temperature, and three future reference periods cover the near-term
	(2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060) and long-term (2081–2100). {CCB CLIMATE}
	Common levels of global warming relative to 1850–1900 are used to contextualize and facilitate analysis, synthesis and communication
	of assessed past, present and future climate change impacts and risks considering multiple lines of evidence. Robust geographical
	patterns of many variables can be identified at a given level of global warming, common to all scenarios considered and independent of
	timing when the global warming level is reached. {16.5, CCB CLIMATE, WGI AR6 Box SPM.1, WGI AR6 4.2, WGI AR6 CCB11.1}
	WGI assessed the increase in global surface temperature is 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20]24 °C in 2011–2020 above 1850–1900. The estimated
	increase in global surface temperature since AR5 is principally due to further warming since 2003–2012 (+0.19 [0.16 to 0.22] °C).25
	Considering all five illustrative scenarios assessed by WGI, there is at least a greater than 50% likelihood that global warming will reach
	or exceed 1.5°C in the near -term, even for the very low greenhouse gas emissions scenario26. { WGI AR6 SPM A1.2, WGI AR6 SPM B1.3,
	WGI AR6 Table SPM.1, WGI AR6 CCB 2.3}
	B: Observed and Projected Impacts and Risks
	Since AR5, the knowledge base on observed and projected impacts and risks generated by climate hazards, exposure and vulnerability has
	increased with impacts attributed to climate change and key risks identified across the report. Impacts and risks are expressed in terms of their
	damages, harms, economic, and non-economic losses. Risks from observed vulnerabilities and responses to climate change are highlighted.
	Risks are projected for the near-term (2021–2040), the mid (2041–2060) and long term (2081–2100), at different global warming levels and
	for pathways that overshoot 1.5°C global warming level for multiple decades27. Complex risks result from multiple climate hazards occurring
	concurrently, and from multiple risks interacting, compounding overall risk and resulting in risks transmitting through interconnected systems
	and across regions.
	24 In the WGI report, square brackets [x to y] are used to provide the assessed very likely range, or 90% interval.
	25 Since AR5, methodological advances and new datasets have provided a more complete spatial representation of changes in surface temperature, including in the Arctic. These and other improvements
	have also increased the estimate of global surface temperature change by approximately 0.1°C, but this increase does not represent additional physical warming since AR5.
	26 Global warming of 1.5°C relative to 1850–1900 would be exceeded during the 21st century under the intermediate, high and very high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios considered in this report
	(SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively). Under the five illustrative scenarios, in the near term (2021–2040), the 1.5°C global warming level is very likely to be exceeded under the very high
	greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), likely to be exceeded under the intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0), more likely than not to be exceeded
	under the low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) and more likely than not to be reached under the very low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9). Furthermore, for the very low
	greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9), it is more likely than not that global surface temperature would decline back to below 1.5°C toward the end of the 21st century, with a temporary
	overshoot of no more than 0.1°C above 1.5°C global warming.
	27 Overshoot: In this report, pathways that first exceed a specified global warming level (usually 1.5°C, by more than 0.1°C), and then return to or below that level again before the end of a specified
	period of time (e.g., before 2100). Sometimes the magnitude and likelihood of the overshoot is also characterized. The overshoot duration can vary from at least one decade up to several decades.Box SPM.1 (continued)

	9SPM
	Summary for PolicymakersObserved Impacts from Climate Change
	28 Attribution is defined as the process of evaluating the relative contributions of multiple causal factors to a change or event with an assessment of confidence. {Annex II Glossary, CWGB ATTRIB}
	29 Impacts of climate change are caused by slow onset and extreme events. Slow onset events are described among the climatic-impact drivers of the WGI AR6 and refer to the risks and impacts
	associated with e.g., increasing temperature means, desertification, decreasing precipitation, loss of biodiversity, land and forest degradation, glacial retreat and related impacts, ocean acidification,
	sea level rise and salinization (https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch).
	30 Acute food insecurity can occur at any time with a severity that threatens lives, livelihoods or both, regardless of the causes, context or duration, as a result of shocks risking determinants of food
	security and nutrition, and used to assess the need for humanitarian action.B.1 Human-induced climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme events, has caused widespread adverse
	impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people, beyond natural climate variability. Some development and
	adaptation efforts have reduced vulnerability. Across sectors and regions the most vulnerable people and systems are ob-
	served to be disproportionately affected. The rise in weather and climate extremes has led to some irreversible impacts as
	natural and human systems are pushed beyond their ability to adapt. (high confidence) (Figure SPM.2) {TS B.1, Figure TS.5,
	1.3, 2.3, 2.4, 2.6, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 4.2, 4.3, 5.2, 5.12, 6.2, 7.2, 8.2, 9.6, 9.8, 9.10, 9.11, 10.4, 11.3, 12.3, 12.4, 13.10, 14.4, 14.5,
	15.3, 16.2, CCP1.2, CCP3.2, CCP4.1, CCP5.2, CCP6.2, CCP7.2, CCP7.3, CCB DISASTER, CCB EXTREMES, CCB ILLNESS, CCB
	MIGRATE, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR}
	B.1.1 Widespread, pervasive impacts to ecosystems, people, settlements, and infrastructure have resulted from observed increases in the
	frequency and intensity of climate and weather extremes, including hot extremes on land and in the ocean, heavy precipitation events,
	drought and fire weather (high confidence). Increasingly since AR5, these observed impacts have been attributed28 to human-induced
	climate change particularly through increased frequency and severity of extreme events. These include increased heat-related human
	mortality (medium confidence), warm-water coral bleaching and mortality (high confidence), and increased drought-related tree
	mortality (high confidence). Observed increases in areas burned by wildfires have been attributed to human-induced climate change
	in some regions (medium to high confidence). Adverse impacts from tropical cyclones, with related losses and damages19, have
	increased due to sea level rise and the increase in heavy precipitation (medium confidence). Impacts in natural and human systems
	from slow-onset processes29 such as ocean acidification, sea level rise or regional decreases in precipitation have also been attributed
	to human induced climate change (high confidence). {1.3, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5, 3.2, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 4.2, 5.2, 5.4, 5.6, 5.12, 7.2, 9.6, 9.7, 9.8, 9.11,
	11.3, Box 11.1, Box 11.2, Table 11.9, 12.3, 12.4, 13.3, 13.5, 13.10, 14.2, 14.5, 15.7, 15.8, 16.2, CCP1.2, CCP2.2, Box CCP5.1, CCP7.3,
	CCB DISASTER, CCB EXTREME, CCB ILLNESS, WGI AR6 SPM.3, WGI AR6 9, WGI AR6 11.3–11.8, SROCC Chapter 4}
	B.1.2 Climate change has caused substantial damages, and increasingly irreversible losses, in terrestrial, freshwater and coastal and open
	ocean marine ecosystems (high confidence). The extent and magnitude of climate change impacts are larger than estimated in previous
	assessments (high confidence). Widespread deterioration of ecosystem structure and function, resilience and natural adaptive capacity,
	as well as shifts in seasonal timing have occurred due to climate change (high confidence), with adverse socioeconomic consequences
	(high confidence). Approximately half of the species assessed globally have shifted polewards or, on land, also to higher elevations
	(very high confidence). Hundreds of local losses of species have been driven by increases in the magnitude of heat extremes (high
	confidence), as well as mass mortality events on land and in the ocean (very high confidence) and loss of kelp forests (high confidence).
	Some losses are already irreversible, such as the first species extinctions driven by climate change (medium confidence). Other impacts
	are approaching irreversibility such as the impacts of hydrological changes resulting from the retreat of glaciers, or the changes in
	some mountain (medium confidence) and Arctic ecosystems driven by permafrost thaw (high confidence). (Figure SPM.2a). { TS B.1,
	Figure TS.5, 2.3, 2.4, 3.4, 3.5, 4.2, 4.3, 4.5, 9.6, 10.4, 11.3, 12.3, 12.8, 13.3, 13.4, 13.10, 14.4, 14.5, 14.6, 15.3, 16.2, CCP1.2, CCP3.2,
	CCP4.1, CCP5.2, Figure CCP5.4, CCP6.1, CCP6.2, CCP7.2, CCP7.3, CCB EXTREMES, CCB ILLNESS, CCB MOVING PLATE, CCB NATURAL,
	CCB PALEO, CCB SLR, SROCC 2.3}
	B.1.3 Climate change including increases in frequency and intensity of extremes have reduced food and water security, hindering efforts
	to meet Sustainable Development Goals (high confidence). Although overall agricultural productivity has increased, climate change
	has slowed this growth over the past 50 years globally (medium confidence), related negative impacts were mainly in mid- and low
	latitude regions but positive impacts occurred in some high latitude regions (high confidence). Ocean warming and ocean acidification
	have adversely affected food production from shellfish aquaculture and fisheries in some oceanic regions (high confidence). Increasing
	weather and climate extreme events have exposed millions of people to acute food insecurity30 and reduced water security, with the
	largest impacts observed in many locations and/or communities in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Small Islands and the Arctic
	(high confidence). Jointly, sudden losses of food production and access to food compounded by decreased diet diversity have increased
	malnutrition in many communities (high confidence), especially for Indigenous Peoples, small-scale food producers and low-income
	households (high confidence), with children, elderly people and pregnant women particularly impacted (high confidence). Roughly half
	of the world’s population currently experience severe water scarcity for at least some part of the year due to climatic and non-climatic
	drivers (medium confidence). (Figure SPM.2b) {3.5, 4.3, 4.4, Box 4.1, 5.2, 5.4, 5.8, 5.9, 5.12, 7.1, 7.2, 9.8, 10.4, 11.3, 12.3, 13.5, 14.4,
	14.5, 15.3, 16.2, CCP5.2, CCP6.2}

	10SPM
	Summary for Policymakers
	na¹not
	assessed
	notassessed
	notassessed
	notassessed
	Impacts of climate change are observed in many ecosystems and human systems worldwide
	(a) Observed impacts of climate change on ecosystems
	Conﬁdence
	in attribution
	to climate change
	High or very high
	Medium
	Low
	(b) Observed impacts of climate change on human systems
	Impacts
	to human systems
	in panel (b)Africa
	Biodiversity hotspotsSmall IslandsNorth AmericaAustralasiaAsia
	EuropeCentral and
	South America
	DesertsMountain regionsArctic
	Antarctic
	Tropical forestsMediterranean regionChanges in
	ecosystem structureSpecies
	range shifts
	/Changes in timing
	(phenology)
	Terrestrial Freshwater Ocean Terrestrial Freshwater Ocean Terrestrial Freshwater Ocean Ecosystems
	na nanana
	nanana
	nanana
	na naGlobal
	Evidence limited,
	insufﬁcient
	Not applicablena
	not
	assessed
	Impacts on
	water scarcity and food productionImpacts on
	health and wellbeingImpacts on
	cities, settlements and infrastructure
	Infectious
	diseases DisplacementWater
	scarcityAgriculture/
	crop
	productionFisheries
	yields and
	aquaculture
	productionInland
	ﬂooding and
	associated
	damagesFlood/storm
	induced
	damages in
	coastal areasDamages
	to key
	economic
	sectorsHuman
	systemsAnimal and
	livestock
	health and
	productivityDamages
	to
	infrastructureMental
	healthHeat,
	malnutrition
	and other
	Asia
	Central and
	South AmericaAustralasia
	Europe
	Mediterranean regionSmall Islands
	Cities by the seaArcticNorth America
	Mountain regionsAfricaGlobalIncreasing
	adverse
	impacts
	Increasing
	adverse
	and positive
	impacts
	Figure SPM.2 \| Observed global and regional impacts on ecosystems and human systems attributed to climate change. Confidence levels reflect uncertainty
	in attribution of the observed impact to climate change. Global assessments focus on large studies, multi-species, meta-analyses and large reviews. For that reason they can be
	assessed with higher confidence than regional studies, which may often rely on smaller studies that have more limited data. Regional assessments consider evidence on impacts
	across an entire region and do not focus on any country in particular.
	(a) Climate change has already altered terrestrial, freshwater and ocean ecosystems at global scale, with multiple impacts evident at regional and local scales where there is
	sufficient literature to make an assessment. Impacts are evident on ecosystem structure, species geographic ranges and timing of seasonal life cycles (phenology) (for methodology
	and detailed references to chapters and cross-chapter papers see SMTS.1 and SMTS.1.1).

	11SPM
	Summary for Policymakers
	B.1.4 Climate change has adversely affected physical health of people globally (very high confidence) and mental health of people in the
	assessed regions (very high confidence). Climate change impacts on health are mediated through natural and human systems, including
	economic and social conditions and disruptions (high confidence). In all regions extreme heat events have resulted in human mortality
	and morbidity (very high confidence). The occurrence of climate-related food-borne and water-borne diseases has increased (very high
	confidence). The incidence of vector-borne diseases has increased from range expansion and/or increased reproduction of disease vectors
	(high confidence). Animal and human diseases, including zoonoses, are emerging in new areas (high confidence). Water and food-borne
	disease risks have increased regionally from climate-sensitive aquatic pathogens, including Vibrio spp. ( high confidence), and from toxic
	substances from harmful freshwater cyanobacteria (medium confidence). Although diarrheal diseases have decreased globally, higher
	temperatures, increased rain and flooding have increased the occurrence of diarrheal diseases, including cholera (very high confidence)
	and other gastrointestinal infections (high confidence). In assessed regions, some mental health challenges are associated with increasing
	temperatures (high confidence), trauma from weather and climate extreme events (very high confidence), and loss of livelihoods and culture
	(high confidence). Increased exposure to wildfire smoke, atmospheric dust, and aeroallergens have been associated with climate-sensitive
	cardiovascular and respiratory distress (high confidence). Health services have been disrupted by extreme events such as floods (high
	confidence). {4.3, 5.12, 7.2, Box 7.3, 8.2, 8.3, Box 8.6, Figure 8.10, 9.10, Figure 9.33, Figure 9.34, 10.4, 11.3, 12.3, 13.7, 14.4, 14.5,
	Figure 14.8, 15.3, 16.2, CCP5.2, Table CCP5.1, CCP6.2, Figure CCP6.3, Table CCB ILLNESS.1}
	B.1.5 In urban settings, observed climate change has caused impacts on human health, livelihoods and key infrastructure (high confidence).
	Multiple climate and non-climate hazards impact cities, settlements and infrastructure and sometimes coincide, magnifying damage
	(high confidence). Hot extremes including heatwaves have intensified in cities (high confidence), where they have also aggravated
	air pollution events (medium confidence) and limited functioning of key infrastructure (high confidence). Observed impacts are
	concentrated amongst the economically and socially marginalized urban residents, e.g., in informal settlements (high confidence).
	Infrastructure, including transportation, water, sanitation and energy systems have been compromised by extreme and slow-onset
	events, with resulting economic losses, disruptions of services and impacts to well-being (high confidence). {4.3, 6.2, 7.1, 7.2, 9.9, 10.4,
	11.3, 12.3, 13.6, 14.5, 15.3, CCP2.2, CCP4.2, CCP5.2}
	B.1.6 Overall adverse economic impacts attributable to climate change, including slow-onset and extreme weather events, have been
	increasingly identified (medium confidence). Some positive economic effects have been identified in regions that have benefited from
	lower energy demand as well as comparative advantages in agricultural markets and tourism (high confidence). Economic damages
	from climate change have been detected in climate-exposed sectors, with regional effects to agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy,
	and tourism (high confidence), and through outdoor labour productivity (high confidence). Some extreme weather events, such as
	tropical cyclones, have reduced economic growth in the short-term (high confidence). Non-climatic factors including some patterns
	of settlement, and siting of infrastructure have contributed to the exposure of more assets to extreme climate hazards increasing the
	magnitude of the losses (high confidence). Individual livelihoods have been affected through changes in agricultural productivity,
	impacts on human health and food security, destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss of property and income, with adverse
	effects on gender and social equity (high confidence). {3.5, 4.2, 5.12, 6.2, 7.2, 8.2, 9.6, 10.4, 13.10, 14.5, Box 14.6, 16.2, Table 16.5,
	18.3, CCP6.2, CCB GENDER, CWGB ECONOMICS}
	B.1.7 Climate change is contributing to humanitarian crises where climate hazards interact with high vulnerability (high confidence). Climate
	and weather extremes are increasingly driving displacement in all regions (high confidence), with Small Island States disproportionately
	affected (high confidence). Flood and drought-related acute food insecurity and malnutrition have increased in Africa (high confidence)
	and Central and South America (high confidence). While non-climatic factors are the dominant drivers of existing intrastate violent
	conflicts, in some assessed regions extreme weather and climate events have had a small, adverse impact on their length, severity or
	frequency, but the statistical association is weak (medium confidence). Through displacement and involuntary migration from extreme
	weather and climate events, climate change has generated and perpetuated vulnerability (medium confidence). {4.2, 4.3, 5.4, 7.2, 9.8,
	Box 9.9, Box 10.4, 12.3, 12.5, 16.2, CCB DISASTER, CCB MIGRATE}(b) Climate change has already had diverse adverse impacts on human systems, including on water security and food production, health and well-being, and cities, settlements and
	infrastructure. The + and – symbols indicate the direction of observed impacts, with a – denoting an increasing adverse impact and a ± denoting that, within a region or globally, both
	adverse and positive impacts have been observed (e.g., adverse impacts in one area or food item may occur with positive impacts in another area or food item). Globally, ‘–’ denotes an
	overall adverse impact; ‘Water scarcity’ considers, e.g., water availability in general, groundwater, water quality, demand for water, drought in cities. Impacts on food production were
	assessed by excluding non-climatic drivers of production increases; Global assessment for agricultural production is based on the impacts on global aggregated production; ‘Reduced
	animal and livestock health and productivity’ considers, e.g., heat stress, diseases, productivity, mortality; ‘Reduced fisheries yields and aquaculture production’ includes marine and
	freshwater fisheries/production; ‘Infectious diseases’ include, e.g., water-borne and vector-borne diseases; ‘Heat, malnutrition and other’ considers, e.g., human heat-related morbidity
	and mortality, labour productivity, harm from wildfire, nutritional deficiencies; ‘Mental health’ includes impacts from extreme weather events, cumulative events, and vicarious or
	anticipatory events; ‘Displacement’ assessments refer to evidence of displacement attributable to climate and weather extremes; ‘Inland flooding and associated damages’ considers,
	e.g., river overflows, heavy rain, glacier outbursts, urban flooding; ‘Flood/storm induced damages in coastal areas’ include damages due to, e.g., cyclones, sea level rise, storm surges.
	Damages by key economic sectors are observed impacts related to an attributable mean or extreme climate hazard or directly attributed. Key economic sectors include standard
	classifications and sectors of importance to regions (for methodology and detailed references to chapters and cross-chapter papers see SMTS.1 and SMTS.1.2).

	12SPM
	Summary for PolicymakersVulnerability and Exposure of Ecosystems and People
	31 Governance: The structures, processes and actions through which private and public actors interact to address societal goals. This includes formal and informal institutions and the associated norms,
	rules, laws and procedures for deciding, managing, implementing and monitoring policies and measures at any geographic or political scale, from global to local.
	32 Balanced diets feature plant-based foods, such as those based on coarse grains, legumes fruits and vegetables, nuts and seeds, and animal-source foods produced in resilient, sustainable and
	low-greenhouse gas emissions systems, as described in SRCCL.B.2 Vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change differs substantially among and within regions (very high
	confidence), driven by patterns of intersecting socioeconomic development, unsustainable ocean and land use, inequity,
	marginalization, historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, and governance31 (high confidence).
	Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change (high confidence).
	A high proportion of species is vulnerable to climate change (high confidence). Human and ecosystem vulnerability are
	interdependent (high confidence). Current unsustainable development patterns are increasing exposure of ecosystems
	and people to climate hazards (high confidence). {2.3, 2.4, 3.5, 4.3, 6.2, 8.2, 8.3, 9.4, 9.7, 10.4, 12.3, 14.5, 15.3, CCP5.2,
	CCP6.2, CCP7.3, CCP7.4, CCB GENDER}
	B.2.1 Since AR5 there is increasing evidence that degradation and destruction of ecosystems by humans increases the vulnerability of
	people (high confidence). Unsustainable land-use and land cover change, unsustainable use of natural resources, deforestation, loss
	of biodiversity, pollution, and their interactions, adversely affect the capacities of ecosystems, societies, communities and individuals
	to adapt to climate change (high confidence). Loss of ecosystems and their services has cascading and long-term impacts on people
	globally, especially for Indigenous Peoples and local communities who are directly dependent on ecosystems, to meet basic needs (high
	confidence). {2.3, 2.5, 2.6, 3.5, 3.6, 4.2, 4.3, 4.6, 5.1, 5.4, 5.5, 5.7, 5.8, 7.2, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 9.6, 10.4, 11.3, 12.2, 12.5, 13.8, 14.4,
	14.5, 15.3, CCP1.2, CCP1.3, CCP2.2, CCP3, CCP4.3, CCP5.2, CCP6.2, CCP7.2, CCP7.3, CCP7.4, CCB ILLNESS, CCB MOVING PLATE, CCB
	SLR}
	B.2.2 Non-climatic human-induced factors exacerbate current ecosystem vulnerability to climate change (very high confidence). Globally,
	and even within protected areas, unsustainable use of natural resources, habitat fragmentation, and ecosystem damage by pollutants
	increase ecosystem vulnerability to climate change (high confidence). Globally, less than 15% of the land, 21% of the freshwater and
	8% of the ocean are protected areas. In most protected areas, there is insufficient stewardship to contribute to reducing damage from,
	or increasing resilience to, climate change (high confidence). {2.4, 2.5, 2.6, 3.4, 3.6, 4.2, 4.3, 5.8, 9.6, 11.3, 12.3, 13.3, 13.4, 14.5, 15.3,
	CCP1.2, Figure CCP1.15, CCP2.1, CCP2.2, CCP4.2, CCP5.2, CCP6.2, CCP7.2, CCP7.3, CCB NATURAL}
	B.2.3 Future vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change will be strongly influenced by the past, present and future development of human
	society, including from overall unsustainable consumption and production, and increasing demographic pressures, as well as persistent
	unsustainable use and management of land, ocean, and water (high confidence). Projected climate change, combined with non-climatic
	drivers, will cause loss and degradation of much of the world’s forests (high confidence), coral reefs and low-lying coastal wetlands
	(very high confidence). While agricultural development contributes to food security, unsustainable agricultural expansion, driven in part
	by unbalanced diets32, increases ecosystem and human vulnerability and leads to competition for land and/or water resources (high
	confidence). {2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.6, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 4.3, 4.5, 5.6, 5.12, 5.13, 7.2, 12.3, 13.3, 13.4, 13.10, 14.5, CCP1.2, CCP2.2, CCP5.2, CCP6.2,
	CCP7.2, CCP7.3, CCB HEALTH, CCB NATURAL}
	B.2.4 Regions and people with considerable development constraints have high vulnerability to climatic hazards (high confidence). Global
	hotspots of high human vulnerability are found particularly in West-, Central- and East Africa, South Asia, Central and South America,
	Small Island Developing States and the Arctic (high confidence). Vulnerability is higher in locations with poverty, governance challenges
	and limited access to basic services and resources, violent conflict and high levels of climate-sensitive livelihoods (e.g., smallholder
	farmers, pastoralists, fishing communities) (high confidence). Between 2010–2020, human mortality from floods, droughts and storms
	was 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions, compared to regions with very low vulnerability (high confidence). Vulnerability
	at different spatial levels is exacerbated by inequity and marginalization linked to gender, ethnicity, low income or combinations
	thereof (high confidence), especially for many Indigenous Peoples and local communities (high confidence). Present development
	challenges causing high vulnerability are influenced by historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, especially for
	many Indigenous Peoples and local communities (high confidence). {4.2, 5.12, 6.2, 6.4, 7.1, 7.2, Box 7.1, 8.2, 8.3, Box 8.4, Figure 8.6,
	Box 9.1, 9.4, 9.7, 9.9, 10.3, 10.4, 10.6, 12.3, 12.5, Box 13.2, 14.4, 15.3, 15.6, 16.2, CCP6.2, CCP7.4}
	B.2.5 Future human vulnerability will continue to concentrate where the capacities of local, municipal and national governments,
	communities and the private sector are least able to provide infrastructures and basic services (high confidence). Under the global
	trend of urbanization, human vulnerability will also concentrate in informal settlements and rapidly growing smaller settlements (high

	13SPM
	Summary for Policymakersconfidence). In rural areas vulnerability will be heightened by compounding processes including high emigration, reduced habitability and
	high reliance on climate-sensitive livelihoods (high confidence). Key infrastructure systems including sanitation, water, health, transport,
	communications and energy will be increasingly vulnerable if design standards do not account for changing climate conditions (high
	confidence). Vulnerability will also rapidly rise in low-lying Small Island Developing States and atolls in the context of sea level rise and
	in some mountain regions, already characterised by high vulnerability due to high dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods, rising
	population displacement, the accelerating loss of ecosystem services and limited adaptive capacities (high confidence). Future exposure
	to climatic hazards is also increasing globally due to socioeconomic development trends including migration, growing inequality and
	urbanization (high confidence). {4.5, 5.5, 6.2, 7.2, 8.3, 9.9, 9.11, 10.3, 10.4, 12.3, 12.5, 13.6, 14.5, 15.3, 15.4, 16.5, CCP2.3, CCP4.3,
	CCP5.2, CCP5.3, CCP5.4, CCP6.2, CCB MIGRATE}
	Risks in the near term (2021–2040)
	B.3 Global warming, reaching 1.5°C in the near-term, would cause unavoidable increases in multiple climate hazards and
	present multiple risks to ecosystems and humans (very high confidence). The level of risk will depend on concurrent near-
	term trends in vulnerability, exposure, level of socioeconomic development and adaptation (high confidence). Near-term
	actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5°C would substantially reduce projected losses and damages related to
	climate change in human systems and ecosystems, compared to higher warming levels, but cannot eliminate them all
	(very high confidence). (Figure SPM.3, Box SPM.1) {16.4, 16.5, 16.6, CCP1.2, CCP5.3, CCB SLR, WGI AR6 SPM B1.3, WGI AR6
	Table SPM.1}
	B.3.1 Near-term warming and increased frequency, severity and duration of extreme events will place many terrestrial, freshwater, coastal
	and marine ecosystems at high or very high risks of biodiversity loss (medium to very high confidence, depending on ecosystem).
	Near-term risks for biodiversity loss are moderate to high in forest ecosystems (medium confidence), kelp and seagrass ecosystems
	(high to very high confidence), and high to very high in Arctic sea-ice and terrestrial ecosystems (high confidence) and warm-water
	coral reefs (very high confidence). Continued and accelerating sea level rise will encroach on coastal settlements and infrastructure
	(high confidence) and commit low-lying coastal ecosystems to submergence and loss (medium confidence). If trends in urbanisation in
	exposed areas continue, this will exacerbate the impacts, with more challenges where energy, water and other services are constrained
	(medium confidence). The number of people at risk from climate change and associated loss of biodiversity will progressively increase
	(medium confidence). Violent conflict and, separately, migration patterns, in the near-term will be driven by socioeconomic conditions
	and governance more than by climate change (medium confidence). (Figure SPM.3) {2.5, 3.4, 4.6, 6.2, 7.3, 8.7, 9.2, 9.9, 11.6, 12.5, 13.6,
	13.10, 14.6, 15.3, 16.5, 16.6, CCP1.2, CCP2.1, CCP2.2, CCP5.3, CCP6.2, CCP6.3, CCB MIGRATE, CCB SLR}
	B.3.2 In the near term, climate-associated risks to natural and human systems depend more strongly on changes in their vulnerability and
	exposure than on differences in climate hazards between emissions scenarios (high confidence). Regional differences exist, and risks
	are highest where species and people exist close to their upper thermal limits, along coastlines, in close association with ice or seasonal
	rivers (high confidence). Risks are also high where multiple non-climate drivers persist or where vulnerability is otherwise elevated
	(high confidence). Many of these risks are unavoidable in the near-term, irrespective of emissions scenario (high confidence). Several
	risks can be moderated with adaptation (high confidence). (Figure SPM.3, Section C) {2.5, 3.3, 3.4, 4.5, 6.2, 7.1, 7.3, 8.2, 11.6, 12.4,
	13.6, 13.7, 13.10, 14.5, 16.4, 16.5, CCP2.2, CCP4.3, CCP5.3, CCB SLR, WGI AR6 Table SPM.1}
	B.3.3 Levels of risk for all Reasons for Concern (RFC) are assessed to become high to very high at lower global warming levels than in
	AR5 (high confidence). Between 1.2°C and 4.5°C global warming level very high risks emerge in all five RFCs compared to just two
	RFCs in AR5 (high confidence). Two of these transitions from high to very high risk are associated with near-term warming: risks to
	unique and threatened systems at a median value of 1.5 [1.2 to 2.0] °C (high confidence) and risks associated with extreme weather
	events at a median value of 2.0 [1.8 to 2.5] °C (medium confidence). Some key risks contributing to the RFCs are projected to lead to
	widespread, pervasive, and potentially irreversible impacts at global warming levels of 1.5–2°C if exposure and vulnerability are high
	and adaptation is low (medium confidence). Near-term actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5°C would substantially reduce
	projected losses and damages related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems, compared to higher warming levels, but
	cannot eliminate them all (very high confidence). (Figure SPM.3b) {16.5, 16.6, CCB SLR}

	14SPM
	Summary for PolicymakersMid to Long-term Risks (2041–2100)
	33 Numbers of species assessed are in the tens of thousands globally.
	34 The term ‘very high risks of extinction’ is used here consistently with the IUCN categories and criteria and equates with ‘critically endangered’.B.4 Beyond 2040 and depending on the level of global warming, climate change will lead to numerous risks to natural and
	human systems (high confidence). For 127 identified key risks, assessed mid- and long-term impacts are up to multiple
	times higher than currently observed (high confidence). The magnitude and rate of climate change and associated risks
	depend strongly on near-term mitigation and adaptation actions, and projected adverse impacts and related losses and
	damages escalate with every increment of global warming (very high confidence). (Figure SPM.3) {2.5, 3.4, 4.4, 5.2, 6.2,
	7.3, 8.4, 9.2, 10.2, 11.6, 12.4, 13.2, 13.3, 13.4, 13.5, 13.6, 13.7, 13.8, 14.6, 15.3, 16.5, 16.6, CCP1.2, CCP2.2, CCP3.3, CCP4.3,
	CCP5.3, CCP6.3, CCP7.3}
	B.4.1 Biodiversity loss and degradation, damages to and transformation of ecosystems are already key risks for every region due to past
	global warming and will continue to escalate with every increment of global warming (very high confidence). In terrestrial ecosystems,
	3 to 14% of species assessed33 will likely face very high risk of extinction34 at global warming levels of 1.5°C, increasing up to 3 to
	18% at 2°C, 3 to 29% at 3°C, 3 to 39% at 4°C, and 3 to 48% at 5°C. In ocean and coastal ecosystems, risk of biodiversity loss ranges
	between moderate and very high by 1.5°C global warming level and is moderate to very high by 2°C but with more ecosystems at high
	and very high risk (high confidence), and increases to high to very high across most ocean and coastal ecosystems by 3°C (medium
	to high confidence, depending on ecosystem). Very high extinction risk for endemic species in biodiversity hotspots is projected to at
	least double from 2% between 1.5°C and 2°C global warming levels and to increase at least tenfold if warming rises from 1.5°C to
	3°C (medium confidence). (Figure SPM.3c, d, f) {2.4, 2.5, 3.4, 3.5,12.3, 12.5, Table 12.6, 13.4, 13.10, 16.4, 16.6, CCP1.2, Figure CCP1.6,
	Figure CCP1.7, CCP5.3, CCP6.3, CCB PALEO}
	B.4.2 Risks in physical water availability and water-related hazards will continue to increase by the mid- to long-term in all assessed regions,
	with greater risk at higher global warming levels (high confidence). At approximately 2°C global warming, snowmelt water availability
	for irrigation is projected to decline in some snowmelt dependent river basins by up to 20%, and global glacier mass loss of 18 ± 13%
	is projected to diminish water availability for agriculture, hydropower, and human settlements in the mid- to long-term, with these
	changes projected to double with 4°C global warming (medium confidence). In Small Islands, groundwater availability is threatened by
	climate change (high confidence). Changes to streamflow magnitude, timing and associated extremes are projected to adversely impact
	freshwater ecosystems in many watersheds by the mid- to long-term across all assessed scenarios (medium confidence). Projected
	increases in direct flood damages are higher by 1.4 to 2 times at 2°C and 2.5 to 3.9 times at 3°C compared to 1.5°C global warming
	without adaptation (medium confidence). At global warming of 4°C, approximately 10% of the global land area is projected to face
	increases in both extreme high and low river flows in the same location, with implications for planning for all water use sectors (medium
	confidence). Challenges for water management will be exacerbated in the near, mid and long term, depending on the magnitude, rate
	and regional details of future climate change and will be particularly challenging for regions with constrained resources for water
	management (high confidence). {2.3, 4.4, 4.5, Box 4.2, Figure 4.20, 15.3, CCP5.3, CCB DISASTER, SROCC 2.3}
	B.4.3 Climate change will increasingly put pressure on food production and access, especially in vulnerable regions, undermining food security
	and nutrition (high confidence). Increases in frequency, intensity and severity of droughts, floods and heatwaves, and continued sea
	level rise will increase risks to food security (high confidence) in vulnerable regions from moderate to high between 1.5°C and 2°C
	global warming level, with no or low levels of adaptation (medium confidence). At 2°C or higher global warming level in the mid-term,
	food security risks due to climate change will be more severe, leading to malnutrition and micro-nutrient deficiencies, concentrated
	in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Central and South America and Small Islands (high confidence). Global warming will progressively
	weaken soil health and ecosystem services such as pollination, increase pressure from pests and diseases, and reduce marine animal
	biomass, undermining food productivity in many regions on land and in the ocean (medium confidence). At 3°C or higher global warming
	level in the long term, areas exposed to climate-related hazards will expand substantially compared with 2°C or lower global warming
	level (high confidence), exacerbating regional disparity in food security risks (high confidence). (Figure SPM.3) {1.1, 3.3, 4.5, 5.2, 5.4, 5.5,
	5.8, 5.9, 5.12, 7.3, 8.3, 9.11, 13.5, 15.3, 16.5, 16.6, CCB MOVING PLATE, CCB SLR}

	15SPM
	Summary for PolicymakersB.4.4 Climate change and related extreme events will significantly increase ill health and premature deaths from the near- to long-term (high
	confidence). Globally, population exposure to heatwaves will continue to increase with additional warming, with strong geographical
	differences in heat-related mortality without additional adaptation (very high confidence). Climate-sensitive food-borne, water-borne,
	and vector-borne disease risks are projected to increase under all levels of warming without additional adaptation (high confidence). In
	particular, dengue risk will increase with longer seasons and a wider geographic distribution in Asia, Europe, Central and South America
	and sub-Saharan Africa, potentially putting additional billions of people at risk by the end of the century (high confidence). Mental health
	challenges, including anxiety and stress, are expected to increase under further global warming in all assessed regions, particularly for
	children, adolescents, elderly, and those with underlying health conditions (very high confidence). {4.5, 5.12, Box 5.10, 7.3, Figure 7.9,
	8.4, 9.10, Figure 9.32, Figure 9.35, 10.4, Figure 10.11, 11.3, 12.3, Figure 12.5, Figure 12.6, 13.7, Figure 13.23, Figure 13.24, 14.5, 15.3,
	CCP6.2}
	B.4.5 Climate change risks to cities, settlements and key infrastructure will rise rapidly in the mid- and long-term with further global
	warming, especially in places already exposed to high temperatures, along coastlines, or with high vulnerabilities (high confidence).
	Globally, population change in low-lying cities and settlements will lead to approximately a billion people projected to be at risk
	from coastal-specific climate hazards in the mid-term under all scenarios, including in Small Islands (high confidence). The population
	potentially exposed to a 100-year coastal flood is projected to increase by about 20% if global mean sea level rises by 0.15 m relative
	to 2020 levels; this exposed population doubles at a 0.75 m rise in mean sea level and triples at 1.4 m without population change
	and additional adaptation (medium confidence). Sea level rise poses an existential threat for some Small Islands and some low-lying
	coasts (medium confidence). By 2100 the value of global assets within the future 1-in-100 year coastal floodplains is projected to
	be between US$7.9 and US$12.7 trillion (2011 value) under RCP4.5, rising to between US$8.8 and US$14.2 trillion under RCP8.5
	(medium confidence). Costs for maintenance and reconstruction of urban infrastructure, including building, transportation, and energy
	will increase with global warming level (medium confidence), the associated functional disruptions are projected to be substantial
	particularly for cities, settlements and infrastructure located on permafrost in cold regions and on coasts (high confidence). {6.2, 9.9,
	10.4, 13.6, 13.10, 15.3, 16.5, CCP2.1, CCP2.2, CCP5.3, CCP6.2, CCB SLR, SROCC 2.3, SROCC CCB9}
	B.4.6 Projected estimates of global aggregate net economic damages generally increase non-linearly with global warming levels (high
	confidence).35 The wide range of global estimates, and the lack of comparability between methodologies, does not allow for identification
	of a robust range of estimates (high confidence). The existence of higher estimates than assessed in AR5 indicates that global aggregate
	economic impacts could be higher than previous estimates (low confidence).36 Significant regional variation in aggregate economic
	damages from climate change is projected (high confidence) with estimated economic damages per capita for developing countries
	often higher as a fraction of income (high confidence). Economic damages, including both those represented and those not represented
	in economic markets, are projected to be lower at 1.5°C than at 3°C or higher global warming levels (high confidence). {4.4, 9.11, 11.5,
	13.10, Box 14.6, 16.5, CWGB ECONOMIC}
	B.4.7 In the mid- to long-term, displacement will increase with intensification of heavy precipitation and associated flooding, tropical cyclones,
	drought and, increasingly, sea level rise (high confidence). At progressive levels of warming, involuntary migration from regions with
	high exposure and low adaptive capacity would occur (medium confidence). Compared to other socioeconomic factors the influence of
	climate on conflict is assessed as relatively weak (high confidence). Along long-term socioeconomic pathways that reduce non-climatic
	drivers, risk of violent conflict would decline (medium confidence). At higher global warming levels, impacts of weather and climate
	extremes, particularly drought, by increasing vulnerability will increasingly affect violent intrastate conflict (medium confidence). {TS
	B.7.4, 7.3, 16.5, CCB MIGRATE }
	35 The assessment found estimated rates of increase in projected global economic damages that were both greater than linear and less than linear as global warming level increases. There is evidence
	that some regions could benefit from low levels of warming (high confidence). {CWGB ECONOMIC}
	36 Low confidence assigned due to the assessed lack of comparability and robustness of global aggregate economic damage estimates. {CWGB ECONOMIC}

	16SPM
	Summary for PolicymakersGlobal and regional risks for increasing levels of global warming
	(a) Global surface temperature change
	Increase relative to the period 1850–1900(b) Reasons for Concern (RFC)
	Impact and risk assessments assuming low to no adaptation
	234
	1.5
	1
	0
	2100 2050 2000 1950Projections for different scenarios°C
	SSP1-1.9
	SSP1-2.6 (shade representin gvery likely range)
	SSP2-4.5
	SSP3-7.0 (shade representin gvery likely range)
	SSP5-8.5
	RFC4
	Global
	aggregate
	impactsRFC1
	Unique and
	threatened
	systemsRFC2
	Extreme
	weather
	eventsRFC3
	Distribution
	of impactsRFC5
	Large scale
	singular
	events
	•••• •••• ••••••• ••• ••••• •• ••••• •• ••• •• ••5
	Conﬁdence level
	assigned to
	transition
	rangeRisk/impact
	LowV ery highVery high
	High
	Moderate
	Undetectable•
	•••••
	••••
	Historical average
	temperature increase
	in 2011–2020 was
	1.09°C (dashed line)
	range 0.95–1.20°CTransition range
	0234
	1.5
	1••••••
	•• •••• •• •
	•• ••••• •• ••
	•• ••• ••
	Warm water
	corals(d) Impacts and risks
	to ocean ecosystems
	Kelp
	forestsSeagrass
	meadowsEpipelagic Salt
	marshesRocky
	shoresStructure
	changeBiodiversity
	lossCarbon
	lossWildﬁre
	increaseTree
	mortality(c) Impacts and risks to terrestrial
	and freshwater ecosystems•••••••••••••• ••• ••••••• ••• •••••• •• ••••• •• ••
	•• •• •Global surface temperature change (°C)
	* Mortality projections include demographic trends but do not include future efforts to improve air quality that reduce ozone c oncentrations.
	0234
	1.5
	1(e) Climate sensitive health outcomes under three adaptation scenarios
	Global surface temperature change (°C) Limited
	adaptation
	•••• ••• •
	Limited
	adaptation•••• ••• ••
	Limited
	adaptation•••••• •
	Limited
	adaptation
	•••• ••• ••Heat-related morbidity
	and mortalityDengue and other diseases carried
	by species of Aedes mosquitoes Malaria Ozone-related mortality *Scenario narratives
	Limited adaptation:
	Failure to proactively adapt;
	low investment in health
	systems
	Incomplete adaptation:
	Incomplete adaptation
	planning; moderate
	investment in health systems
	Proactive adaptation:
	Proactive adaptive
	management; higher
	investment in health systems Proactive
	adaptation
	••••
	Proactive
	adaptation••••
	Proactive
	adaptation••••
	Incomplete
	adaptation
	•••• •••
	Incomplete
	adaptation
	•••• •••
	Incomplete
	adaptation•••• ••
	Incomplete
	adaptation•••• •••
	Proactive
	adaptation••••5°C 5°C

	17SPM
	Summary for Policymakers(f) Examples of regional key risks
	4
	023
	1.5
	1Global surface temperature change (°C) Sea-ice
	ecosystems
	from sea-ice
	change in
	the Arctic
	••••••••
	Changes in
	ﬁsheries catch
	for Pollock
	and
	Paciﬁc Cod
	in the Arctic
	•• •• •••
	Costs
	and losses
	for key
	infrastructure
	in the Arctic
	•• ••
	Changes
	in krill
	ﬁsheries
	in the
	Antarctic
	••• •• ••
	Sea-ice
	dependent
	ecosystems
	in the
	Antarctic
	•• •• ••
	0234
	1.5
	1Global surface temperature change (°C)Cascading
	impacts on
	cities and
	settlements
	in Australasia
	••••••••
	Loss and
	degradation of
	coral reefs in
	Australia
	••••••••••
	Reduced
	viability of
	tourism-
	related
	activities in
	North
	America
	••• ••••
	Costs and
	damages
	related to
	maintenance and
	reconstruction of
	transportation
	infrastructure in
	North America
	•••• ••
	Lyme
	disease in
	North
	America
	under
	incomplete
	adaptation
	scenario
	•••• •••
	0234
	1.5
	1Global surface temperature change (°C)Delayed
	impacts of
	sea level
	rise in the
	Mediterranean
	••••••
	Food
	production
	from crops,
	ﬁsheries and
	livestock
	in Africa
	•••• • •••
	Biodiversity
	and
	ecosystems
	in Africa
	••• ••• •••
	Mortality and
	morbidity
	from heat and
	infectious
	disease
	in Africa
	•••••• ••
	0234
	1.5
	1Global surface temperature change (°C)
	Heat stress ,
	mortality
	and
	morbidity
	to people
	in Europe
	••• ••• ••
	Coastal
	ﬂooding to
	people
	and
	infrastructures
	in Europe
	•• •• ••
	Water scarcity
	to people in
	southeastern
	Europe
	••• ••• ••
	Water quality
	and
	availability
	in the
	Mediterranean
	••• ••• •••
	Health and
	wellbeing
	in the
	Mediterranean
	•• ••• ••Absence of risk diagrams does not imply absence of risks within a
	region. The development of synthetic diagrams for Small Islands, Asia and Central and
	South America was limited due to the paucity of adequately downscaled climate projections,
	with uncertainty in the direction of change, the diversity of climatologies and socioeconomic
	contexts across countries within a region, and the resulting few numbers of impact and risk
	projections for different warming levels.
	The risks listed are of at least medium conﬁdence level:
	Europe - Risks to people, economies and infrastructures due to coastal and inland ﬂooding
	- Stress and mortality to people due to increasing temperatures and heat extremes
	- Marine and terrestrial ecosystems disruptions
	- Water scarcity to multiple interconnected sectors
	- Losses in crop production, due to compound heat and dry conditions, and extreme
	weatherSmall
	Islands- Loss of terrestrial, marine and coastal biodiversity and ecosystem services
	- Loss of lives and assets, risk to food security and economic disruption due to
	destruction of settlements and infrastructure
	- Economic decline and livelihood failure of ﬁsheries, agriculture, tourism and from
	biodiversity loss from traditional agroecosystems
	- Reduced habitability of reef and non-reef islands leading to increased displacemen t
	- Risk to water security in almost every small island
	Africa - Species extinction and reduction or irreversible loss of ecosystems and their
	services, including freshwater, land and ocean ecosystems
	- Risk to food security, risk of malnutrition (micronutrient deﬁciency), and loss of
	livelihood due to reduced food production from crops, livestock and ﬁsheries
	- Risks to marine ecosystem health and to livelihoods in coastal communities
	- Increased human mortality and morbidity due to increased heat and infectious
	diseases (including vector-borne and diarrhoeal diseases)
	- Reduced economic output and growth, and increased inequality and poverty rates
	- Increased risk to water and energy security due to drought and heat Aus-
	tralasia- Degradation of tropical shallow coral reefs and associated biodiversity and
	ecosystem service values
	- Loss of human and natural systems in low-lying coastal areas due to sea level rise
	- Impact on livelihoods and incomes due to decline in agricultural production
	- Increase in heat-related mortality and morbidity for people and wildlife
	- Loss of alpine biodiversity in Australia due to less snow
	Asia - Urban infrastructure damage and impacts on human well-being and health due
	to ﬂooding, especially in coastal cities and settlements
	- Biodiversity loss and habitat shifts as well as associated disruptions in
	dependent human systems across freshwater, land, and ocean ecosystems
	- More frequent, extensive coral bleaching and subsequent coral mortality
	induced by ocean warming and acidiﬁcation, sea level rise, marine heat waves
	and resource extraction
	- Decline in coastal ﬁshery resources due to sea level rise, decrease in
	precipitation in some parts and increase in temperature
	- Risk to food and water security due to increased temperature extremes, rainfall
	variability and droughtCentral
	and
	South
	America- Risk to water security
	- Severe health effects due to increasing epidemics, in particular vector-borne
	diseases
	- Coral reef ecosystems degradation due to coral bleaching
	- Risk to food security due to frequent/extreme droughts
	- Damages to life and infrastructure due to ﬂoods, landslides, sea level rise, storm
	surges and coastal erosion North
	America- Climate-sensitive mental health outcomes, human mortality and morbidity due
	to increasing average temperature, weather and climate extremes, and
	compound climate hazards
	- Risk of degradation of marine, coastal and terrestrial ecosystems, including loss
	of biodiversity, function, and protective services
	- Risk to freshwater resources with consequences for ecosystems, reduced surface
	water availability for irrigated agriculture, other human uses, and degraded
	water quality
	- Risk to food and nutritional security through changes in agriculture, livestock,
	hunting, ﬁsheries, and aquaculture productivity and access
	- Risks to well-being, livelihoods and economic activities from cascading and
	compounding climate hazards, including risks to coastal cities, settlements and
	infrastructure from sea level rise
	Figure SPM.3 \| Synthetic diagrams of global and sectoral assessments and examples of regional key risks. Diagrams show the change in the levels of impacts and
	risks assessed for global warming of 0–5°C global surface temperature change relative to pre-industrial period (1850–1900) over the range.

	18SPM
	Summary for Policymakers
	Complex, Compound and Cascading Risks
	B.5 Climate change impacts and risks are becoming increasingly complex and more difficult to manage. Multiple climate
	hazards will occur simultaneously, and multiple climatic and non-climatic risks will interact, resulting in compounding
	overall risk and risks cascading across sectors and regions. Some responses to climate change result in new impacts and
	risks. (high confidence) {1.3, 2.4, Box 2.2, Box 9.5, 11.5, 13.5, 14.6, Box 15.1, CCP1.2, CCP2.2, CCB COVID, CCB DISASTER,
	CCB INTEREG, CCB SRM, }
	B.5.1 Concurrent and repeated climate hazards occur in all regions, increasing impacts and risks to health, ecosystems, infrastructure, livelihoods
	and food (high confidence). Multiple risks interact, generating new sources of vulnerability to climate hazards, and compounding overall
	risk (high confidence). Increasing concurrence of heat and drought events are causing crop production losses and tree mortality (high
	confidence). Above 1.5°C global warming increasing concurrent climate extremes will increase risk of simultaneous crop losses of maize
	in major food-producing regions, with this risk increasing further with higher global warming levels (medium confidence). Future sea
	level rise combined with storm surge and heavy rainfall will increase compound flood risks (high confidence). Risks to health and food
	production will be made more severe from the interaction of sudden food production losses from heat and drought, exacerbated by
	heat-induced labour productivity losses (high confidence). These interacting impacts will increase food prices, reduce household incomes,
	and lead to health risks of malnutrition and climate-related mortality with no or low levels of adaptation, especially in tropical regions
	(high confidence). Risks to food safety from climate change will further compound the risks to health by increasing food contamination
	of crops from mycotoxins and contamination of seafood from harmful algal blooms, mycotoxins, and chemical contaminants (high
	confidence). {Figure TS.10c, 5.2, 5.4, 5.8, 5.9, 5.11, 5.12, 7.2, 7.3, 9.8, 9.11, 10.4, 11.3, 11.5, 12.3, 13.5, 14.5, 15.3, Box 15.1, 16.6, CCP1.2,
	CCP6.2, , WGI AR6 SPM A.3.1, WGI AR6 SPM A.3.2, WGI AR6 SPM C.2.7}
	B.5.2 Adverse impacts from climate hazards and resulting risks are cascading across sectors and regions (high confidence), propagating
	impacts along coasts and urban centres (medium confidence) and in mountain regions (high confidence). These hazards and cascading
	risks also trigger tipping points in sensitive ecosystems and in significantly and rapidly changing social-ecological systems impacted
	by ice melt, permafrost thaw and changing hydrology in polar regions (high confidence). Wildfires, in many regions, have affected
	ecosystems and species, people and their built assets, economic activity, and health (medium to high confidence). In cities and (a) Global surface temperature changes in °C relative to 1850–1900. These changes were obtained by combining CMIP6 model simulations with observational constraints based
	on past simulated warming, as well as an updated assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity (Box SPM.1). Changes relative to 1850–1900 based on 20-year averaging periods
	are calculated by adding 0.85°C (the observed global surface temperature increase from 1850–1900 to 1995–2014) to simulated changes relative to 1995–2014. Very likely ranges
	are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 (WGI AR6 Figure SPM.8). Assessments were carried out at the global scale for (b), (c), (d) and (e).
	(b) The Reasons for Concern (RFC) framework communicates scientific understanding about accrual of risk for five broad categories. Diagrams are shown for each RFC, assuming
	low to no adaptation (i.e., adaptation is fragmented, localized and comprises incremental adjustments to existing practices). However, the transition to a very high risk level has an
	emphasis on irreversibility and adaptation limits. Undetectable risk level (white) indicates no associated impacts are detectable and attributable to climate change; moderate risk
	(yellow) indicates associated impacts are both detectable and attributable to climate change with at least medium confidence, also accounting for the other specific criteria for key
	risks; high risk (red) indicates severe and widespread impacts that are judged to be high on one or more criteria for assessing key risks; and very high risk level (purple) indicates
	very high risk of severe impacts and the presence of significant irreversibility or the persistence of climate-related hazards, combined with limited ability to adapt due to the nature
	of the hazard or impacts/risks. The horizontal line denotes the present global warming of 1.09°C which is used to separate the observed, past impacts below the line from the future
	projected risks above it. RFC1: Unique and threatened systems: ecological and human systems that have restricted geographic ranges constrained by climate-related conditions and
	have high endemism or other distinctive properties. Examples include coral reefs, the Arctic and its Indigenous Peoples, mountain glaciers and biodiversity hotspots. RFC2: Extreme
	weather events: risks/impacts to human health, livelihoods, assets and ecosystems from extreme weather events such as heatwaves, heavy rain, drought and associated wildfires,
	and coastal flooding. RFC3: Distribution of impacts: risks/impacts that disproportionately affect particular groups due to uneven distribution of physical climate change hazards,
	exposure or vulnerability. RFC4: Global aggregate impacts: impacts to socio-ecological systems that can be aggregated globally into a single metric, such as monetary damages, lives
	affected, species lost or ecosystem degradation at a global scale. RFC5: Large-scale singular events: relatively large, abrupt and sometimes irreversible changes in systems caused
	by global warming, such as ice sheet disintegration or thermohaline circulation slowing. Assessment methods are described in SM16.6 and are identical to AR5, but are enhanced
	by a structured approach to improve robustness and facilitate comparison between AR5 and AR6.
	Risks for (c) terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and (d) ocean ecosystems. For c) and d), diagrams shown for each risk assume low to no adaptation. The transition to a very high
	risk level has an emphasis on irreversibility and adaptation limits.
	(e) Climate-sensitive human health outcomes under three scenarios of adaptation effectiveness. The assessed projections were based on a range of scenarios, including SRES,
	CMIP5, and ISIMIP , and, in some cases, demographic trends. The diagrams are truncated at the nearest whole ºC within the range of temperature change in 2100 under three SSP
	scenarios in panel (a).
	(f) Examples of regional key risks. Risks identified are of at least medium confidence level. Key risks are identified based on the magnitude of adverse consequences (pervasiveness
	of the consequences, degree of change, irreversibility of consequences, potential for impact thresholds or tipping points, potential for cascading effects beyond system boundaries);
	likelihood of adverse consequences; temporal characteristics of the risk; and ability to respond to the risk, e.g., by adaptation. The full set of 127 assessed global and regional key
	risks is given in SM16.7. Diagrams are provided for some risks. The development of synthetic diagrams for Small Islands, Asia and Central and South America were limited by the
	availability of adequately downscaled climate projections, with uncertainty in the direction of change, the diversity of climatologies and socioeconomic contexts across countries
	within a region, and the resulting low number of impact and risk projections for different warming levels. Absence of risks diagrams does not imply absence of risks within a region.
	(Box SPM.1) {Figure TS.4, Figure 2.11, Figure SM3.1, Figure 7.9, Figure 9.6, Figure 11.6, Figure 13.28, 16.5, 16.6, Figure 16.15, SM16.3, SM16.4, SM16.5, SM16.6 (methodologies),
	SM16.7, Figure CCP4.8, Figure CCP4.10, Figure CCP6.5, WGI AR6 2, WGI AR6 SPM A.1.2, WGI AR6 Figure SPM.8}