Daily Papers

The observed similarities in the behavior of humans and Large Language Models (LLMs) have prompted researchers to consider the potential of using LLMs as models of human cognition. However, several significant challenges must be addressed before LLMs can be legitimately regarded as cognitive models. For instance, LLMs are trained on far more data than humans typically encounter, and may have been directly trained on human data in specific cognitive tasks or aligned with human preferences. Consequently, the origins of these behavioral similarities are not well understood. In this paper, we propose a novel way to enhance the utility of LLMs as cognitive models. This approach involves (i) leveraging computationally equivalent tasks that both an LLM and a rational agent need to master for solving a cognitive problem and (ii) examining the specific task distributions required for an LLM to exhibit human-like behaviors. We apply this approach to decision-making -- specifically risky and intertemporal choice -- where the key computationally equivalent task is the arithmetic of expected value calculations. We show that an LLM pretrained on an ecologically valid arithmetic dataset, which we call Arithmetic-GPT, predicts human behavior better than many traditional cognitive models. Pretraining LLMs on ecologically valid arithmetic datasets is sufficient to produce a strong correspondence between these models and human decision-making. Our results also suggest that LLMs used as cognitive models should be carefully investigated via ablation studies of the pretraining data.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

This report overviews our ongoing work in enriching chain-of-thoughts datasets requiring arithmetical reasoning with the integration of non-parametric components, such as a calculator. We conduct an analysis of prominent relevant datasets such as GSM8K, Ape210K, AQuA-RAT, and MathQA and propose a machine-processable HTML-like format specifically tailored for working with semi-structured chains. By converting the datasets into this unified format, we enable the effective integration of large language models and symbolic systems, empowering them to tackle arithmetical reasoning tasks more efficiently.

Large neural networks spend most computation on floating point tensor multiplications. In this work, we find that a floating point multiplier can be approximated by one integer adder with high precision. We propose the linear-complexity multiplication L-Mul algorithm that approximates floating point number multiplication with integer addition operations. The new algorithm costs significantly less computation resource than 8-bit floating point multiplication but achieves higher precision. Compared to 8-bit floating point multiplications, the proposed method achieves higher precision but consumes significantly less bit-level computation. Since multiplying floating point numbers requires substantially higher energy compared to integer addition operations, applying the L-Mul operation in tensor processing hardware can potentially reduce 95% energy cost by element-wise floating point tensor multiplications and 80% energy cost of dot products. We calculated the theoretical error expectation of L-Mul, and evaluated the algorithm on a wide range of textual, visual, and symbolic tasks, including natural language understanding, structural reasoning, mathematics, and commonsense question answering. Our numerical analysis experiments agree with the theoretical error estimation, which indicates that L-Mul with 4-bit mantissa achieves comparable precision as float8_e4m3 multiplications, and L-Mul with 3-bit mantissa outperforms float8_e5m2. Evaluation results on popular benchmarks show that directly applying L-Mul to the attention mechanism is almost lossless. We further show that replacing all floating point multiplications with 3-bit mantissa L-Mul in a transformer model achieves equivalent precision as using float8_e4m3 as accumulation precision in both fine-tuning and inference.

Solving linear systems of equations is a common problem that arises both on its own and as a subroutine in more complex problems: given a matrix A and a vector b, find a vector x such that Ax=b. We consider the case where one doesn't need to know the solution x itself, but rather an approximation of the expectation value of some operator associated with x, e.g., x'Mx for some matrix M. In this case, when A is sparse, N by N and has condition number kappa, classical algorithms can find x and estimate x'Mx in O(N sqrt(kappa)) time. Here, we exhibit a quantum algorithm for this task that runs in poly(log N, kappa) time, an exponential improvement over the best classical algorithm.

This paper presents a quantitative program verification infrastructure for discrete probabilistic programs. Our infrastructure can be viewed as the probabilistic analogue of Boogie: its central components are an intermediate verification language (IVL) together with a real-valued logic. Our IVL provides a programming-language-style for expressing verification conditions whose validity implies the correctness of a program under investigation. As our focus is on verifying quantitative properties such as bounds on expected outcomes, expected run-times, or termination probabilities, off-the-shelf IVLs based on Boolean first-order logic do not suffice. Instead, a paradigm shift from the standard Boolean to a real-valued domain is required. Our IVL features quantitative generalizations of standard verification constructs such as assume- and assert-statements. Verification conditions are generated by a weakest-precondition-style semantics, based on our real-valued logic. We show that our verification infrastructure supports natural encodings of numerous verification techniques from the literature. With our SMT-based implementation, we automatically verify a variety of benchmarks. To the best of our knowledge, this establishes the first deductive verification infrastructure for expectation-based reasoning about probabilistic programs.

Solving arithmetic tasks is a simple and fundamental skill, yet modern Large Language Models (LLMs) have great difficulty with them. We introduce the Integrated Gated Calculator (IGC), a module that enables LLMs to perform arithmetic by emulating a calculator on the GPU. We finetune a Llama model with our module and test it on the BigBench Arithmetic benchmark, where it beats the State of the Art, outperforming all models on the benchmark, including models almost two orders of magnitude larger. Our approach takes only a single iteration to run and requires no external tools. It performs arithmetic operations entirely inside the LLM without the need to produce intermediate tokens. It is computationally efficient, interpretable, and avoids side-effects on tasks that do not require arithmetic operations. It reliably achieves 98\% to 99\% accuracy across multiple training runs and for all subtasks, including the substantially harder subtask of multiplication, which was previously unsolved.

This paper introduces a novel training methodology that enables a small Transformer model to generalize the addition of two-digit numbers to numbers with unseen lengths of digits. The proposed approach employs an autoregressive generation technique, processing from right to left, which mimics a common manual method for adding large numbers. To the best of my knowledge, this methodology has not been previously explored in the literature. All results are reproducible, and the corresponding R code is available at: https://github.com/AGPatriota/ALGA-R/.

Recent advancements in Chain-of-Thoughts (CoT) and Program-of-Thoughts (PoT) methods have greatly enhanced language models' mathematical reasoning capabilities, facilitating their integration into instruction tuning datasets with LLMs. However, existing methods for large-scale dataset creation require substantial seed data and high computational costs for data synthesis, posing significant challenges for scalability. We introduce InfinityMATH, a scalable instruction tuning dataset for programmatic mathematical reasoning. The construction pipeline emphasizes decoupling numbers from mathematical problems to synthesize number-independent programs, enabling efficient and flexible scaling while minimizing dependency on specific numerical values. Fine-tuning experiments with open-source language and code models, such as Llama2 and CodeLlama, demonstrate the practical benefits of InfinityMATH. These fine-tuned models, showed significant relative improvements on both in-domain and out-of-domain benchmarks, ranging from 184.7% to 514.3% on average. Additionally, these models exhibited high robustness on the GSM8K+ and MATH+ benchmarks, which are enhanced version of test sets with simply the number variations. InfinityMATH ensures that models are more versatile and effective across a broader range of mathematical problems. The data is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/flagopen/InfinityMATH.

Computers calculate transcendental functions by approximating them through the composition of a few limited-precision instructions. For example, an exponential can be calculated with a Taylor series. These approximation methods were developed over the centuries by mathematicians, who emphasized the attainability of arbitrary precision. Computers, however, operate on few limited precision types, such as the popular float32. In this study, we show that when aiming for limited precision, existing approximation methods can be outperformed by programs automatically discovered from scratch by a simple evolutionary algorithm. In particular, over real numbers, our method can approximate the exponential function reaching orders of magnitude more precision for a given number of operations when compared to previous approaches. More practically, over float32 numbers and constrained to less than 1 ULP of error, the same method attains a speedup over baselines by generating code that triggers better XLA/LLVM compilation paths. In other words, in both cases, evolution searched a vast space of possible programs, without knowledge of mathematics, to discover previously unknown optimized approximations to high precision, for the first time. We also give evidence that these results extend beyond the exponential. The ubiquity of transcendental functions suggests that our method has the potential to reduce the cost of scientific computing applications.

The estimation of repeatedly nested expectations is a challenging task that arises in many real-world systems. However, existing methods generally suffer from high computational costs when the number of nestings becomes large. Fix any non-negative integer D for the total number of nestings. Standard Monte Carlo methods typically cost at least O(varepsilon^{-(2+D)}) and sometimes O(varepsilon^{-2(1+D)}) to obtain an estimator up to varepsilon-error. More advanced methods, such as multilevel Monte Carlo, currently only exist for D = 1. In this paper, we propose a novel Monte Carlo estimator called READ, which stands for "Recursive Estimator for Arbitrary Depth.'' Our estimator has an optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2}) for every fixed D under suitable assumptions, and a nearly optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2(1 + delta)}) for any 0 < delta < frac12 under much more general assumptions. Our estimator is also unbiased, which makes it easy to parallelize. The key ingredients in our construction are an observation of the problem's recursive structure and the recursive use of the randomized multilevel Monte Carlo method.

We present a methodology to price options and portfolios of options on a gate-based quantum computer using amplitude estimation, an algorithm which provides a quadratic speedup compared to classical Monte Carlo methods. The options that we cover include vanilla options, multi-asset options and path-dependent options such as barrier options. We put an emphasis on the implementation of the quantum circuits required to build the input states and operators needed by amplitude estimation to price the different option types. Additionally, we show simulation results to highlight how the circuits that we implement price the different option contracts. Finally, we examine the performance of option pricing circuits on quantum hardware using the IBM Q Tokyo quantum device. We employ a simple, yet effective, error mitigation scheme that allows us to significantly reduce the errors arising from noisy two-qubit gates.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

The Neural Arithmetic Logic Unit (NALU) is a neural network layer that can learn exact arithmetic operations between the elements of a hidden state. The goal of NALU is to learn perfect extrapolation, which requires learning the exact underlying logic of an unknown arithmetic problem. Evaluating the performance of the NALU is non-trivial as one arithmetic problem might have many solutions. As a consequence, single-instance MSE has been used to evaluate and compare performance between models. However, it can be hard to interpret what magnitude of MSE represents a correct solution and models sensitivity to initialization. We propose using a success-criterion to measure if and when a model converges. Using a success-criterion we can summarize success-rate over many initialization seeds and calculate confidence intervals. We contribute a generalized version of the previous arithmetic benchmark to measure models sensitivity under different conditions. This is, to our knowledge, the first extensive evaluation with respect to convergence of the NALU and its sub-units. Using a success-criterion to summarize 4800 experiments we find that consistently learning arithmetic extrapolation is challenging, in particular for multiplication.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide range of natural language processing and reasoning tasks. However, their performance in the foundational domain of arithmetic remains unsatisfactory. When dealing with arithmetic tasks, LLMs often memorize specific examples rather than learning the underlying computational logic, limiting their ability to generalize to new problems. In this paper, we propose a Composable Arithmetic Execution Framework (CAEF) that enables LLMs to learn to execute step-by-step computations by emulating Turing Machines, thereby gaining a genuine understanding of computational logic. Moreover, the proposed framework is highly scalable, allowing composing learned operators to significantly reduce the difficulty of learning complex operators. In our evaluation, CAEF achieves nearly 100% accuracy across seven common mathematical operations on the LLaMA 3.1-8B model, effectively supporting computations involving operands with up to 100 digits, a level where GPT-4o falls short noticeably in some settings.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

Large language models like GPT-4 exhibit emergent capabilities across general-purpose tasks, such as basic arithmetic, when trained on extensive text data, even though these tasks are not explicitly encoded by the unsupervised, next-token prediction objective. This study investigates how small transformers, trained from random initialization, can efficiently learn arithmetic operations such as addition, multiplication, and elementary functions like square root, using the next-token prediction objective. We first demonstrate that conventional training data is not the most effective for arithmetic learning, and simple formatting changes can significantly improve accuracy. This leads to sharp phase transitions as a function of training data scale, which, in some cases, can be explained through connections to low-rank matrix completion. Building on prior work, we then train on chain-of-thought style data that includes intermediate step results. Even in the complete absence of pretraining, this approach significantly and simultaneously improves accuracy, sample complexity, and convergence speed. We also study the interplay between arithmetic and text data during training and examine the effects of few-shot prompting, pretraining, and model scale. Additionally, we discuss length generalization challenges. Our work highlights the importance of high-quality, instructive data that considers the particular characteristics of the next-word prediction objective for rapidly eliciting arithmetic capabilities.

Instructing large language models (LLMs) to solve elementary school math problems has shown great success using Chain of Thought (CoT). However, the CoT approach relies on an LLM to generate a sequence of arithmetic calculations which can be prone to cascaded calculation errors. We hypothesize that an LLM should focus on extracting predicates and generating symbolic formulas from the math problem description so that the underlying calculation can be done via an external code interpreter. We investigate using LLM to generate Prolog programs to solve mathematical questions. Experimental results show that our Prolog-based arithmetic problem-solving outperforms CoT generation in the GSM8K benchmark across three distinct LLMs. In addition, given the insensitive ordering of predicates and symbolic formulas in Prolog, we propose to permute the ground truth predicates for more robust LLM training via data augmentation.

Transformers, central to the successes in modern Natural Language Processing, often falter on arithmetic tasks despite their vast capabilities --which paradoxically include remarkable coding abilities. We observe that a crucial challenge is their naive reliance on positional information to solve arithmetic problems with a small number of digits, leading to poor performance on larger numbers. Herein, we delve deeper into the role of positional encoding, and propose several ways to fix the issue, either by modifying the positional encoding directly, or by modifying the representation of the arithmetic task to leverage standard positional encoding differently. We investigate the value of these modifications for three tasks: (i) classical multiplication, (ii) length extrapolation in addition, and (iii) addition in natural language context. For (i) we train a small model on a small dataset (100M parameters and 300k samples) with remarkable aptitude in (direct, no scratchpad) 15 digits multiplication and essentially perfect up to 12 digits, while usual training in this context would give a model failing at 4 digits multiplication. In the experiments on addition, we use a mere 120k samples to demonstrate: for (ii) extrapolation from 10 digits to testing on 12 digits numbers while usual training would have no extrapolation, and for (iii) almost perfect accuracy up to 5 digits while usual training would be correct only up to 3 digits (which is essentially memorization with a training set of 120k samples).

As opposed to evaluating computation and logic-based reasoning, current benchmarks for evaluating large language models (LLMs) in medicine are primarily focused on question-answering involving domain knowledge and descriptive reasoning. While such qualitative capabilities are vital to medical diagnosis, in real-world scenarios, doctors frequently use clinical calculators that follow quantitative equations and rule-based reasoning paradigms for evidence-based decision support. To this end, we propose MedCalc-Bench, a first-of-its-kind dataset focused on evaluating the medical calculation capability of LLMs. MedCalc-Bench contains an evaluation set of over 1000 manually reviewed instances from 55 different medical calculation tasks. Each instance in MedCalc-Bench consists of a patient note, a question requesting to compute a specific medical value, a ground truth answer, and a step-by-step explanation showing how the answer is obtained. While our evaluation results show the potential of LLMs in this area, none of them are effective enough for clinical settings. Common issues include extracting the incorrect entities, not using the correct equation or rules for a calculation task, or incorrectly performing the arithmetic for the computation. We hope our study highlights the quantitative knowledge and reasoning gaps in LLMs within medical settings, encouraging future improvements of LLMs for various clinical calculation tasks.

We discuss the numerical solution of initial value problems for varepsilon^2,varphi''+a(x),varphi=0 in the highly oscillatory regime, i.e., with a(x)>0 and 0<varepsilonll 1. We analyze and implement an approximate solution based on the well-known WKB-ansatz. The resulting approximation error is of magnitude O(varepsilon^{N}) where N refers to the truncation order of the underlying asymptotic series. When the optimal truncation order N_{opt} is chosen, the error behaves like O(varepsilon^{-2}exp(-cvarepsilon^{-1})) with some c>0.

Low-precision training is considered an effective strategy for reducing both training and downstream inference costs. Previous scaling laws for precision mainly focus on integer quantization, which pay less attention to the constituents in floating-point quantization and thus cannot well fit the LLM losses in this scenario. In contrast, while floating-point quantization training is more commonly implemented in production, the research on it has been relatively superficial. In this paper, we thoroughly explore the effects of floating-point quantization targets, exponent bits, mantissa bits, and the calculation granularity of the scaling factor in floating-point quantization training performance of LLM models. While presenting an accurate floating-point quantization unified scaling law, we also provide valuable suggestions for the community: (1) Exponent bits contribute slightly more to the model performance than mantissa bits. We provide the optimal exponent-mantissa bit ratio for different bit numbers, which is available for future reference by hardware manufacturers; (2) We discover the formation of the critical data size in low-precision LLM training. Too much training data exceeding the critical data size will inversely bring in degradation of LLM performance; (3) The optimal floating-point quantization precision is directly proportional to the computational power, but within a wide computational power range, we estimate that the best cost-performance precision lies between 4-8 bits.

The widespread adoption of machine learning algorithms necessitates hardware acceleration to ensure efficient performance. This acceleration relies on custom matrix engines that operate on full or reduced-precision floating-point arithmetic. However, conventional floating-point implementations can be power hungry. This paper proposes a method to improve the energy efficiency of the matrix engines used in machine learning algorithm acceleration. Our approach leverages approximate normalization within the floating-point multiply-add units as a means to reduce their hardware complexity, without sacrificing overall machine-learning model accuracy. Hardware synthesis results show that this technique reduces area and power consumption roughly by 16% and 13% on average for Bfloat16 format. Also, the error introduced in transformer model accuracy is 1% on average, for the most efficient configuration of the proposed approach.

Large linear systems play an important role in high-energy theory, appearing in amplitude bootstraps and during integral reduction. This paper introduces FiniteFieldSolve, a general-purpose toolkit for exactly solving large linear systems over the rationals. The solver interfaces directly with Mathematica, is straightforward to install, and seamlessly replaces Mathematica's native solvers. In testing, FiniteFieldSolve is approximately two orders of magnitude faster than Mathematica and uses an order of magnitude less memory. The package also compares favorably against other public solvers in FiniteFieldSolve's intended use cases. As the name of the package suggests, solutions are obtained via well-known finite field methods. These methods suffer from introducing an inordinate number of modulo (or integer division) operations with respect to different primes. By automatically recompiling itself for each prime, FiniteFieldSolve converts the division operations into much faster combinations of instructions, dramatically improving performance. The technique of compiling the prime can be applied to any finite field solver, where the time savings will be solver dependent. The operation of the package is illustrated through a detailed example of an amplitude bootstrap.

The term GreenAI refers to a novel approach to Deep Learning, that is more aware of the ecological impact and the computational efficiency of its methods. The promoters of GreenAI suggested the use of Floating Point Operations (FLOPs) as a measure of the computational cost of Neural Networks; however, that measure does not correlate well with the energy consumption of hardware equipped with massively parallel processing units like GPUs or TPUs. In this article, we propose a simple refinement of the formula used to compute floating point operations for convolutional layers, called {\alpha}-FLOPs, explaining and correcting the traditional discrepancy with respect to different layers, and closer to reality. The notion of {\alpha}-FLOPs relies on the crucial insight that, in case of inputs with multiple dimensions, there is no reason to believe that the speedup offered by parallelism will be uniform along all different axes.

Though Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable abilities in mathematics reasoning, they are still struggling with performing numeric operations accurately, such as addition and multiplication. Numbers can be tokenized into tokens in various ways by different LLMs and affect the numeric operations performance. Currently, there are two representatives: 1) Tokenize into 1-digit, and 2) Tokenize into 1sim 3 digit. The difference is roughly equivalent to using different numeral systems (namely base 10 or base 10^{3}). In light of this, we study the scaling behavior of different numeral systems in the context of transformer-based large language models. We empirically show that a base 10 system is consistently more data-efficient than a base 10^{2} or 10^{3} system across training data scale, model sizes under from-scratch training settings, while different number systems have very similar fine-tuning performances. We attribute this to higher token frequencies of a base 10 system. Additionally, we reveal extrapolation behavior patterns on addition and multiplication. We identify that base 100 and base 1000 systems struggle on token-level discernment and token-level operations. We also sheds light on the mechanism learnt by the models.

The ability (and inability) of large language models (LLMs) to perform arithmetic tasks has been the subject of much theoretical and practical debate. We show that LLMs are frequently able to correctly and confidently predict the first digit of n-digit by m-digit multiplication tasks without using chain of thought reasoning, despite these tasks require compounding operations to solve. Simultaneously, LLMs in practice often fail to correctly or confidently predict the last digit of an n-digit by m-digit multiplication, a task equivalent to 1-digit by 1-digit multiplication which can be easily learned or memorized. We show that the latter task can be solved more robustly when the LLM is conditioned on all of the correct higher-order digits, which on average increases the confidence of the correct last digit on 5-digit by 5-digit multiplication tasks using Llama 2-13B by over 230% (0.13 to 0.43) and Mistral-7B by 150% (0.22 to 0.55).

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have substantially enhanced their mathematical reasoning abilities. However, these models still struggle with complex problems that require multiple reasoning steps, frequently leading to logical or numerical errors. While numerical mistakes can be largely addressed by integrating a code interpreter, identifying logical errors within intermediate steps is more challenging. Moreover, manually annotating these steps for training is not only expensive but also labor-intensive, requiring the expertise of professional annotators. In our study, we introduce an innovative approach that bypasses the need for process annotations (from human or GPTs) by utilizing the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) framework. This technique automatically generates both the process supervision and the step-level evaluation signals. Our method iteratively trains the policy and value models, leveraging the capabilities of a well-pretrained LLM to progressively enhance its mathematical reasoning skills. Furthermore, we propose an efficient inference strategy-step-level beam search, where the value model is crafted to assist the policy model (i.e., LLM) in navigating more effective reasoning paths, rather than solely relying on prior probabilities. The experimental results on both in-domain and out-of-domain datasets demonstrate that even without GPT-4 or human-annotated process supervision, our AlphaMath framework achieves comparable or superior results to previous state-of-the-art methods.

We define a probabilistic programming language for Gaussian random variables with a first-class exact conditioning construct. We give operational, denotational and equational semantics for this language, establishing convenient properties like exchangeability of conditions. Conditioning on equality of continuous random variables is nontrivial, as the exact observation may have probability zero; this is Borel's paradox. Using categorical formulations of conditional probability, we show that the good properties of our language are not particular to Gaussians, but can be derived from universal properties, thus generalizing to wider settings. We define the Cond construction, which internalizes conditioning as a morphism, providing general compositional semantics for probabilistic programming with exact conditioning.

We give a quantum algorithm for computing an epsilon-approximate Nash equilibrium of a zero-sum game in a m times n payoff matrix with bounded entries. Given a standard quantum oracle for accessing the payoff matrix our algorithm runs in time O(m + ncdot epsilon^{-2.5} + epsilon^{-3}) and outputs a classical representation of the epsilon-approximate Nash equilibrium. This improves upon the best prior quantum runtime of O(m + n cdot epsilon^{-3}) obtained by [vAG19] and the classic O((m + n) cdot epsilon^{-2}) runtime due to [GK95] whenever epsilon = Omega((m +n)^{-1}). We obtain this result by designing new quantum data structures for efficiently sampling from a slowly-changing Gibbs distribution.

We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key component: (i) clean values, (ii) initial margin and Collateral Valuation Adjustment (ColVA), (iii) Credit/Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA/DVA) together with Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and (iv) Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA). Because these layers depend on one another through collateral and default effects, a naive Monte Carlo approach would require deeply nested simulations, making the problem computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we use an iterative deep BSDE approach, handling each layer sequentially so that earlier outputs serve as inputs to the subsequent layers. Initial margin is computed via deep quantile regression to reflect margin requirements over the Margin Period of Risk. We also adopt a change-of-measure method that highlights rare but significant defaults of the bank or counterparty, ensuring that these events are accurately captured in the training process. We further extend Han and Long's (2020) a posteriori error analysis to BSDEs on bounded domains. Due to the random exit from the domain, we obtain an order of convergence of O(h^{1/4-epsilon}) rather than the usual O(h^{1/2}). Numerical experiments illustrate that this method drastically reduces computational demands and successfully scales to high-dimensional, non-symmetric portfolios. The results confirm its effectiveness and accuracy, offering a practical alternative to nested Monte Carlo simulations in multi-counterparty xVA analyses.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Mathematical reasoning in large language models (LMs) has garnered significant attention in recent work, but there is a limited understanding of how these models process and store information related to arithmetic tasks within their architecture. In order to improve our understanding of this aspect of language models, we present a mechanistic interpretation of Transformer-based LMs on arithmetic questions using a causal mediation analysis framework. By intervening on the activations of specific model components and measuring the resulting changes in predicted probabilities, we identify the subset of parameters responsible for specific predictions. This provides insights into how information related to arithmetic is processed by LMs. Our experimental results indicate that LMs process the input by transmitting the information relevant to the query from mid-sequence early layers to the final token using the attention mechanism. Then, this information is processed by a set of MLP modules, which generate result-related information that is incorporated into the residual stream. To assess the specificity of the observed activation dynamics, we compare the effects of different model components on arithmetic queries with other tasks, including number retrieval from prompts and factual knowledge questions.

We obtain almost sure bounds for the weighted sum sum_{n leq t} f(n){n}, where f(n) is a Steinhaus random multiplicative function. Specifically, we obtain the bounds predicted by exponentiating the law of the iterated logarithm, giving sharp upper and lower bounds.

Code has been shown to be effective in enhancing the mathematical reasoning abilities of large language models due to its precision and accuracy. Previous works involving continued mathematical pretraining often include code that utilizes math-related packages, which are primarily designed for fields such as engineering, machine learning, signal processing, or module testing, rather than being directly focused on mathematical reasoning. In this paper, we introduce a novel method for generating mathematical code accompanied with corresponding reasoning steps for continued pretraining. Our approach begins with the construction of a high-quality mathematical continued pretraining dataset by incorporating math-related web data, code using mathematical packages, math textbooks, and synthetic data. Next, we construct reasoning steps by extracting LaTeX expressions, the conditions needed for the expressions, and the results of the expressions from the previously collected dataset. Based on this extracted information, we generate corresponding code to accurately capture the mathematical reasoning process. Appending the generated code to each reasoning step results in data consisting of paired natural language reasoning steps and their corresponding code. Combining this data with the original dataset results in a 19.2B-token high-performing mathematical pretraining corpus, which we name MathCode-Pile. Training several popular base models with this corpus significantly improves their mathematical abilities, leading to the creation of the MathCoder2 family of models. All of our data processing and training code is open-sourced, ensuring full transparency and easy reproducibility of the entire data collection and training pipeline. The code is released at https://github.com/mathllm/MathCoder2 .

We consider in this work quantities that can be obtained as limits of powers of parametrized matrices, for instance the inverse matrix or the logarithm of the determinant. Under the assumption of affine dependence in the parameters, we use the Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM) to derive an approximation for powers of these matrices, from which we derive a nonintrusive approximation for the aforementioned limits. We derive upper bounds of the error made by the obtained formula. Finally, numerical comparisons with classical intrusive and nonintrusive approximation techniques are provided: in the considered test-cases, our algorithm performs well compared to the nonintrusive ones.

Introduction: The paper addresses the challenging problem of predicting the short-term realized volatility of the Bitcoin price using order flow information. The inherent stochastic nature and anti-persistence of price pose difficulties in accurate prediction. Methods: To address this, we propose a method that transforms order flow data over a fixed time interval (snapshots) into images. The order flow includes trade sizes, trade directions, and limit order book, and is mapped into image colour channels. These images are then used to train both a simple 3-layer Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and more advanced ResNet-18 and ConvMixer, with additionally supplementing them with hand-crafted features. The models are evaluated against classical GARCH, Multilayer Perceptron trained on raw data, and a naive guess method that considers current volatility as a prediction. Results: The experiments are conducted using price data from January 2021 and evaluate model performance in terms of root mean square error (RMSPE). The results show that our order flow representation with a CNN as a predictive model achieves the best performance, with an RMSPE of 0.85+/-1.1 for the model with aggregated features and 1.0+/-1.4 for the model without feature supplementation. ConvMixer with feature supplementation follows closely. In comparison, the RMSPE for the naive guess method was 1.4+/-3.0.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning has enabled Large Language Model (LLM) to achieve remarkable performance in various NLP tasks, including arithmetic problem-solving. However, this success does not generalize to small language model (sLM) like T5, due to their limited capacity and absence of emergent abilities associated with larger models. Recent works to enhance sLM through knowledge distillation have yielded some improvements but still face significant limitations, particularly high ambiguity from the variability in natural language expressions and substantial computational costs. In this paper, we investigate why sLM perform poorly on arithmetic reasoning tasks and hypothesize that natural language format variability introduces high ambiguity for these smaller models. Based on this hypothesis, we conduct experiments with equation-only format, which is a reasoning format that unifies arithmetic reasoning previously expressed in natural language formats into mathematical equations. Experiment results demonstrate that equation-only format effectively boosts the arithmetic reasoning abilities of sLM, especially in very small models like T5-Tiny.

Lara is a key-value algebra that aims at unifying linear and relational algebra with three types of operation abstraction. The study of Lara's expressive ability reports that it can represent relational algebra and most linear algebra operations. However, several essential computations, such as matrix inversion and determinant, cannot be expressed in Lara. Lara cannot represent global and iterative computation, either. This article proposes IterLara, extending Lara with iterative operators, to provide an algebraic model that unifies operations in general-purpose computing, like big data, AI, scientific computing, and database. We study the expressive ability of Lara and IterLara and prove that IterLara with aggregation functions can represent matrix inversion, determinant. Besides, we demonstrate that IterLara with no limitation of function utility is Turing complete. We also propose the Operation Count (OP) as a metric of computation amount for IterLara and ensure that the OP metric is in accordance with the existing computation metrics.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive problem-solving capabilities in mathematics through step-by-step reasoning chains. However, they are susceptible to reasoning errors that impact the quality of subsequent reasoning chains and the final answer due to language models' autoregressive token-by-token generating nature. Recent works have proposed adopting external verifiers to guide the generation of reasoning paths, but existing works utilize models that have been trained with step-by-step labels to assess the correctness of token-by-token reasoning chains. Consequently, they struggle to recognize discriminative details of tokens within a reasoning path and lack the ability to evaluate whether an intermediate reasoning path is on a promising track toward the correct final answer. To amend the lack of sound and token-grained math-verification signals, we devise a novel training scheme for verifiers that apply token-level supervision with the expected cumulative reward (i.e., value). Furthermore, we propose a practical formulation of the cumulative reward by reducing it to finding the probability of future correctness of the final answer and thereby enabling the empirical estimation of the value. Experimental results on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that Token-Supervised Value Model (TVM) can outperform step-by-step verifiers on GSM8K and MATH with Mistral and Llama.

Convolution is a broadly useful operation with applications including signal processing, machine learning, probability, optics, polynomial multiplication, and efficient parsing. Usually, however, this operation is understood and implemented in more specialized forms, hiding commonalities and limiting usefulness. This paper formulates convolution in the common algebraic framework of semirings and semimodules and populates that framework with various representation types. One of those types is the grand abstract template and itself generalizes to the free semimodule monad. Other representations serve varied uses and performance trade-offs, with implementations calculated from simple and regular specifications. Of particular interest is Brzozowski's method for regular expression matching. Uncovering the method's essence frees it from syntactic manipulations, while generalizing from boolean to weighted membership (such as multisets and probability distributions) and from sets to n-ary relations. The classic trie data structure then provides an elegant and efficient alternative to syntax. Pleasantly, polynomial arithmetic requires no additional implementation effort, works correctly with a variety of representations, and handles multivariate polynomials and power series with ease. Image convolution also falls out as a special case.

Do large language models (LLMs) solve reasoning tasks by learning robust generalizable algorithms, or do they memorize training data? To investigate this question, we use arithmetic reasoning as a representative task. Using causal analysis, we identify a subset of the model (a circuit) that explains most of the model's behavior for basic arithmetic logic and examine its functionality. By zooming in on the level of individual circuit neurons, we discover a sparse set of important neurons that implement simple heuristics. Each heuristic identifies a numerical input pattern and outputs corresponding answers. We hypothesize that the combination of these heuristic neurons is the mechanism used to produce correct arithmetic answers. To test this, we categorize each neuron into several heuristic types-such as neurons that activate when an operand falls within a certain range-and find that the unordered combination of these heuristic types is the mechanism that explains most of the model's accuracy on arithmetic prompts. Finally, we demonstrate that this mechanism appears as the main source of arithmetic accuracy early in training. Overall, our experimental results across several LLMs show that LLMs perform arithmetic using neither robust algorithms nor memorization; rather, they rely on a "bag of heuristics".

Transformer-based large language models have achieved remarkable performance across various natural language processing tasks. However, they often struggle with seemingly easy tasks like arithmetic despite their vast capabilities. This stark disparity raise human's concerns about their safe and ethical use, hinder their widespread adoption.In this paper, we focus on a typical arithmetic task, integer multiplication, to explore and explain the imperfection of transformers in this domain. We provide comprehensive analysis of a vanilla transformer trained to perform n-digit integer multiplication. Our observations indicate that the model decomposes multiplication task into multiple parallel subtasks, sequentially optimizing each subtask for each digit to complete the final multiplication. Based on observation and analysis, we infer the reasons of transformers deficiencies in multiplication tasks lies in their difficulty in calculating successive carryovers and caching intermediate results, and confirmed this inference through experiments. Guided by these findings, we propose improvements to enhance transformers performance on multiplication tasks. These enhancements are validated through rigorous testing and mathematical modeling, not only enhance transformer's interpretability, but also improve its performance, e.g., we achieve over 99.9% accuracy on 5-digit integer multiplication with a tiny transformer, outperform LLMs GPT-4. Our method contributes to the broader fields of model understanding and interpretability, paving the way for analyzing more complex tasks and Transformer models. This work underscores the importance of explainable AI, helping to build trust in large language models and promoting their adoption in critical applications.

Decoder-only Transformers often struggle with complex reasoning tasks, particularly arithmetic reasoning requiring multiple sequential operations. In this work, we identify representation collapse in the model's intermediate layers as a key factor limiting their reasoning capabilities. To address this, we propose Sequential Variance-Covariance Regularization (Seq-VCR), which enhances the entropy of intermediate representations and prevents collapse. Combined with dummy pause tokens as substitutes for chain-of-thought (CoT) tokens, our method significantly improves performance in arithmetic reasoning problems. In the challenging 5 times 5 integer multiplication task, our approach achieves 99.5% exact match accuracy, outperforming models of the same size (which yield 0% accuracy) and GPT-4 with five-shot CoT prompting (44%). We also demonstrate superior results on arithmetic expression and longest increasing subsequence (LIS) datasets. Our findings highlight the importance of preventing intermediate layer representation collapse to enhance the reasoning capabilities of Transformers and show that Seq-VCR offers an effective solution without requiring explicit CoT supervision.