Daily Papers

Landslides pose severe threats to infrastructure, economies, and human lives, necessitating accurate detection and predictive mapping across diverse geographic regions. With advancements in deep learning and remote sensing, automated landslide detection has become increasingly effective. This study presents a comprehensive approach integrating multi-source satellite imagery and deep learning models to enhance landslide identification and prediction. We leverage Sentinel-2 multispectral data and ALOS PALSAR-derived slope and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) layers to capture critical environmental features influencing landslide occurrences. Various geospatial analysis techniques are employed to assess the impact of terra in characteristics, vegetation cover, and rainfall on detection accuracy. Additionally, we evaluate the performance of multiple stateof-the-art deep learning segmentation models, including U-Net, DeepLabV3+, and Res-Net, to determine their effectiveness in landslide detection. The proposed framework contributes to the development of reliable early warning systems, improved disaster risk management, and sustainable land-use planning. Our findings provide valuable insights into the potential of deep learning and multi-source remote sensing in creating robust, scalable, and transferable landslide prediction models.

The damage and the impact of natural disasters are becoming more destructive with the increase of urbanization. Today's metropolitan cities are not sufficiently prepared for the pre and post-disaster situations. Digital Twin technology can provide a solution. A virtual copy of the physical city could be created by collecting data from sensors of the Internet of Things (IoT) devices and stored on the cloud infrastructure. This virtual copy is kept current and up to date with the continuous flow of the data coming from the sensors. We propose a disaster management system utilizing machine learning called DT-DMS is used to support decision-making mechanisms. This study aims to show how to educate and prepare emergency center staff by simulating potential disaster situations on the virtual copy. The event of a disaster will be simulated allowing emergency center staff to make decisions and depicting the potential outcomes of these decisions. A rescue operation after an earthquake is simulated. Test results are promising and the simulation scope is planned to be extended.

Disaster events occur around the world and cause significant damage to human life and property. Earth observation (EO) data enables rapid and comprehensive building damage assessment (BDA), an essential capability in the aftermath of a disaster to reduce human casualties and to inform disaster relief efforts. Recent research focuses on the development of AI models to achieve accurate mapping of unseen disaster events, mostly using optical EO data. However, solutions based on optical data are limited to clear skies and daylight hours, preventing a prompt response to disasters. Integrating multimodal (MM) EO data, particularly the combination of optical and SAR imagery, makes it possible to provide all-weather, day-and-night disaster responses. Despite this potential, the development of robust multimodal AI models has been constrained by the lack of suitable benchmark datasets. In this paper, we present a BDA dataset using veRy-hIGH-resoluTion optical and SAR imagery (BRIGHT) to support AI-based all-weather disaster response. To the best of our knowledge, BRIGHT is the first open-access, globally distributed, event-diverse MM dataset specifically curated to support AI-based disaster response. It covers five types of natural disasters and two types of man-made disasters across 12 regions worldwide, with a particular focus on developing countries where external assistance is most needed. The optical and SAR imagery in BRIGHT, with a spatial resolution between 0.3-1 meters, provides detailed representations of individual buildings, making it ideal for precise BDA. In our experiments, we have tested seven advanced AI models trained with our BRIGHT to validate the transferability and robustness. The dataset and code are available at https://github.com/ChenHongruixuan/BRIGHT. BRIGHT also serves as the official dataset for the 2025 IEEE GRSS Data Fusion Contest.

In recent decades, wildfires, as widespread and extremely destructive natural disasters, have caused tremendous property losses and fatalities, as well as extensive damage to forest ecosystems. Many fire risk assessment projects have been proposed to prevent wildfires, but GIS-based methods are inherently challenging to scale to different geographic areas due to variations in data collection and local conditions. Inspired by the abundance of publicly available remote sensing projects and the burgeoning development of deep learning in computer vision, our research focuses on assessing fire risk using remote sensing imagery. In this work, we propose a novel remote sensing dataset, FireRisk, consisting of 7 fire risk classes with a total of 91872 labelled images for fire risk assessment. This remote sensing dataset is labelled with the fire risk classes supplied by the Wildfire Hazard Potential (WHP) raster dataset, and remote sensing images are collected using the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP), a high-resolution remote sensing imagery program. On FireRisk, we present benchmark performance for supervised and self-supervised representations, with Masked Autoencoders (MAE) pre-trained on ImageNet1k achieving the highest classification accuracy, 65.29%. This remote sensing dataset, FireRisk, provides a new direction for fire risk assessment, and we make it publicly available on https://github.com/CharmonyShen/FireRisk.

Due to the increasing frequency of natural and man-made disasters worldwide, the scientific community has paid considerable attention to the concept of resilience engineering in recent years. Authorities and decision-makers, on the other hand, have been focusing their efforts to develop strategies that can help increase community resilience to different types of extreme events. Since it is often impossible to prevent every risk, the focus is on adapting and managing risks in ways that minimize impacts to communities (e.g., humans and other systems). Several resilience strategies have been proposed in the literature to reduce disaster risk and improve community resilience. Generally, resilience assessment is challenging due to uncertainty and unavailability of data necessary for the estimation process. This paper proposes a Fuzzy Logic method for quantifying community resilience. The methodology is based on the PEOPLES framework, an indicator-based hierarchical framework that defines all aspects of the community. A fuzzy-based approach is implemented to quantify the PEOPLES indicators using descriptive knowledge instead of hard data, accounting also for the uncertainties involved in the analysis. To demonstrate the applicability of the methodology, data regarding the functionality of the city San Francisco before and after the Loma Prieta earthquake are used to obtain a resilience index of the Physical Infrastructure dimension of the PEOPLES framework. The results show that the methodology can provide good estimates of community resilience despite the uncertainty of the indicators. Hence, it serves as a decision-support tool to help decision-makers and stakeholders assess and improve the resilience of their communities.

Natural disasters are increasing in frequency and severity, causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage annually and posing growing threats to infrastructure and human livelihoods. Accurate data on roofing materials is critical for modeling building vulnerability to natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, wildfires, and hurricanes, yet such data remain unavailable. To address this gap, we introduce RoofNet, the largest and most geographically diverse novel multimodal dataset to date, comprising over 51,500 samples from 184 geographically diverse sites pairing high-resolution Earth Observation (EO) imagery with curated text annotations for global roof material classification. RoofNet includes geographically diverse satellite imagery labeled with 14 key roofing types -- such as asphalt shingles, clay tiles, and metal sheets -- and is designed to enhance the fidelity of global exposure datasets through vision-language modeling (VLM). We sample EO tiles from climatically and architecturally distinct regions to construct a representative dataset. A subset of 6,000 images was annotated in collaboration with domain experts to fine-tune a VLM. We used geographic- and material-aware prompt tuning to enhance class separability. The fine-tuned model was then applied to the remaining EO tiles, with predictions refined through rule-based and human-in-the-loop verification. In addition to material labels, RoofNet provides rich metadata including roof shape, footprint area, solar panel presence, and indicators of mixed roofing materials (e.g., HVAC systems). RoofNet supports scalable, AI-driven risk assessment and serves as a downstream benchmark for evaluating model generalization across regions -- offering actionable insights for insurance underwriting, disaster preparedness, and infrastructure policy planning.

Global floods, exacerbated by climate change, pose severe threats to human life, infrastructure, and the environment. Recent catastrophic events in Pakistan and New Zealand underscore the urgent need for precise flood mapping to guide restoration efforts, understand vulnerabilities, and prepare for future occurrences. While Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) remote sensing offers day-and-night, all-weather imaging capabilities, its application in deep learning for flood segmentation is limited by the lack of large annotated datasets. To address this, we introduce Kuro Siwo, a manually annotated multi-temporal dataset, spanning 43 flood events globally. Our dataset maps more than 338 billion m^2 of land, with 33 billion designated as either flooded areas or permanent water bodies. Kuro Siwo includes a highly processed product optimized for flood mapping based on SAR Ground Range Detected, and a primal SAR Single Look Complex product with minimal preprocessing, designed to promote research on the exploitation of both the phase and amplitude information and to offer maximum flexibility for downstream task preprocessing. To leverage advances in large scale self-supervised pretraining methods for remote sensing data, we augment Kuro Siwo with a large unlabeled set of SAR samples. Finally, we provide an extensive benchmark, namely BlackBench, offering strong baselines for a diverse set of flood events from Europe, America, Africa, Asia and Australia.

Natural disasters, such as floods, tornadoes, or wildfires, are increasingly pervasive as the Earth undergoes global warming. It is difficult to predict when and where an incident will occur, so timely emergency response is critical to saving the lives of those endangered by destructive events. Fortunately, technology can play a role in these situations. Social media posts can be used as a low-latency data source to understand the progression and aftermath of a disaster, yet parsing this data is tedious without automated methods. Prior work has mostly focused on text-based filtering, yet image and video-based filtering remains largely unexplored. In this work, we present the Incidents1M Dataset, a large-scale multi-label dataset which contains 977,088 images, with 43 incident and 49 place categories. We provide details of the dataset construction, statistics and potential biases; introduce and train a model for incident detection; and perform image-filtering experiments on millions of images on Flickr and Twitter. We also present some applications on incident analysis to encourage and enable future work in computer vision for humanitarian aid. Code, data, and models are available at http://incidentsdataset.csail.mit.edu.

ML-based computer vision models are promising tools for supporting emergency management operations following natural disasters. Arial photographs taken from small manned and unmanned aircraft can be available soon after a disaster and provide valuable information from multiple perspectives for situational awareness and damage assessment applications. However, emergency managers often face challenges finding the most relevant photos among the tens of thousands that may be taken after an incident. While ML-based solutions could enable more effective use of aerial photographs, there is still a lack of training data for imagery of this type from multiple perspectives and for multiple hazard types. To address this, we present the LADI v2 (Low Altitude Disaster Imagery version 2) dataset, a curated set of about 10,000 disaster images captured in the United States by the Civil Air Patrol (CAP) in response to federally-declared emergencies (2015-2023) and annotated for multi-label classification by trained CAP volunteers. We also provide two pretrained baseline classifiers and compare their performance to state-of-the-art vision-language models in multi-label classification. The data and code are released publicly to support the development of computer vision models for emergency management research and applications.

The shared real-time information about natural disasters on social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook plays a critical role in informing volunteers, emergency managers, and response organizations. However, supervised learning models for monitoring disaster events require large amounts of annotated data, making them unrealistic for real-time use in disaster events. To address this challenge, we present a fine-grained disaster tweet classification model under the semi-supervised, few-shot learning setting where only a small number of annotated data is required. Our model, CrisisMatch, effectively classifies tweets into fine-grained classes of interest using few labeled data and large amounts of unlabeled data, mimicking the early stage of a disaster. Through integrating effective semi-supervised learning ideas and incorporating TextMixUp, CrisisMatch achieves performance improvement on two disaster datasets of 11.2\% on average. Further analyses are also provided for the influence of the number of labeled data and out-of-domain results.

Floods cause extensive global damage annually, making effective monitoring essential. While satellite observations have proven invaluable for flood detection and tracking, comprehensive global flood datasets spanning extended time periods remain scarce. In this study, we introduce a novel deep learning flood detection model that leverages the cloud-penetrating capabilities of Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite imagery, enabling consistent flood extent mapping in any weather condition. By applying this model to nearly 10 years of SAR data, we create a unique, longitudinal global flood extent dataset with predictions unaffected by cloud coverage, offering comprehensive and consistent insights into historically flood-prone areas over the past decade. We use our model predictions to identify historically flood-prone areas in Ethiopia and demonstrate real-time disaster response capabilities during the May 2024 floods in Kenya. Additionally, our longitudinal analysis reveals potential increasing trends in global flood extent over time, although further validation is required to explore links to climate change. To maximize impact, we provide public access to both our model predictions and a code repository, empowering researchers and practitioners worldwide to advance flood monitoring and enhance disaster response strategies.

Fully decentralized learning enables the distribution of learning resources and decision-making capabilities across multiple user devices or nodes, and is rapidly gaining popularity due to its privacy-preserving and decentralized nature. Importantly, this crowdsourcing of the learning process allows the system to continue functioning even if some nodes are affected or disconnected. In a disaster scenario, communication infrastructure and centralized systems may be disrupted or completely unavailable, hindering the possibility of carrying out standard centralized learning tasks in these settings. Thus, fully decentralized learning can help in this case. However, transitioning from centralized to peer-to-peer communications introduces a dependency between the learning process and the topology of the communication graph among nodes. In a disaster scenario, even peer-to-peer communications are susceptible to abrupt changes, such as devices running out of battery or getting disconnected from others due to their position. In this study, we investigate the effects of various disruptions to peer-to-peer communications on decentralized learning in a disaster setting. We examine the resilience of a decentralized learning process when a subset of devices drop from the process abruptly. To this end, we analyze the difference between losing devices holding data, i.e., potential knowledge, vs. devices contributing only to the graph connectivity, i.e., with no data. Our findings on a Barabasi-Albert graph topology, where training data is distributed across nodes in an IID fashion, indicate that the accuracy of the learning process is more affected by a loss of connectivity than by a loss of data. Nevertheless, the network remains relatively robust, and the learning process can achieve a good level of accuracy.

During natural and man-made disasters, people use social media platforms such as Twitter to post textual and multime- dia content to report updates about injured or dead people, infrastructure damage, and missing or found people among other information types. Studies have revealed that this on- line information, if processed timely and effectively, is ex- tremely useful for humanitarian organizations to gain situational awareness and plan relief operations. In addition to the analysis of textual content, recent studies have shown that imagery content on social media can boost disaster response significantly. Despite extensive research that mainly focuses on textual content to extract useful information, limited work has focused on the use of imagery content or the combination of both content types. One of the reasons is the lack of labeled imagery data in this domain. Therefore, in this paper, we aim to tackle this limitation by releasing a large multi-modal dataset collected from Twitter during different natural disasters. We provide three types of annotations, which are useful to address a number of crisis response and management tasks for different humanitarian organizations.

This paper introduces RiskCards, a framework for structured assessment and documentation of risks associated with an application of language models. As with all language, text generated by language models can be harmful, or used to bring about harm. Automating language generation adds both an element of scale and also more subtle or emergent undesirable tendencies to the generated text. Prior work establishes a wide variety of language model harms to many different actors: existing taxonomies identify categories of harms posed by language models; benchmarks establish automated tests of these harms; and documentation standards for models, tasks and datasets encourage transparent reporting. However, there is no risk-centric framework for documenting the complexity of a landscape in which some risks are shared across models and contexts, while others are specific, and where certain conditions may be required for risks to manifest as harms. RiskCards address this methodological gap by providing a generic framework for assessing the use of a given language model in a given scenario. Each RiskCard makes clear the routes for the risk to manifest harm, their placement in harm taxonomies, and example prompt-output pairs. While RiskCards are designed to be open-source, dynamic and participatory, we present a "starter set" of RiskCards taken from a broad literature survey, each of which details a concrete risk presentation. Language model RiskCards initiate a community knowledge base which permits the mapping of risks and harms to a specific model or its application scenario, ultimately contributing to a better, safer and shared understanding of the risk landscape.

With the rapid development of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), they are increasingly deployed as autonomous computer-use agents capable of accomplishing complex computer tasks. However, a pressing issue arises: Can the safety risk principles designed and aligned for general MLLMs in dialogue scenarios be effectively transferred to real-world computer-use scenarios? Existing research on evaluating the safety risks of MLLM-based computer-use agents suffers from several limitations: it either lacks realistic interactive environments, or narrowly focuses on one or a few specific risk types. These limitations ignore the complexity, variability, and diversity of real-world environments, thereby restricting comprehensive risk evaluation for computer-use agents. To this end, we introduce RiOSWorld, a benchmark designed to evaluate the potential risks of MLLM-based agents during real-world computer manipulations. Our benchmark includes 492 risky tasks spanning various computer applications, involving web, social media, multimedia, os, email, and office software. We categorize these risks into two major classes based on their risk source: (i) User-originated risks and (ii) Environmental risks. For the evaluation, we evaluate safety risks from two perspectives: (i) Risk goal intention and (ii) Risk goal completion. Extensive experiments with multimodal agents on RiOSWorld demonstrate that current computer-use agents confront significant safety risks in real-world scenarios. Our findings highlight the necessity and urgency of safety alignment for computer-use agents in real-world computer manipulation, providing valuable insights for developing trustworthy computer-use agents. Our benchmark is publicly available at https://yjyddq.github.io/RiOSWorld.github.io/.

With the development of the Internet, social media has become an important channel for posting disaster-related information. Analyzing attitudes hidden in these texts, known as sentiment analysis, is crucial for the government or relief agencies to improve disaster response efficiency, but it has not received sufficient attention. This paper aims to fill this gap by focusing on investigating attitudes towards disaster response and analyzing targeted relief supplies during disaster response. The contributions of this paper are fourfold. First, we propose several machine learning models for classifying public sentiment concerning disaster-related social media data. Second, we create a natural disaster dataset with sentiment labels, which contains nearly 50,00 Twitter data about different natural disasters in the United States (e.g., a tornado in 2011, a hurricane named Sandy in 2012, a series of floods in 2013, a hurricane named Matthew in 2016, a blizzard in 2016, a hurricane named Harvey in 2017, a hurricane named Michael in 2018, a series of wildfires in 2018, and a hurricane named Dorian in 2019). We are making our dataset available to the research community: https://github.com/Dong-UTIL/Natural-Hazards-Twitter-Dataset. It is our hope that our contribution will enable the study of sentiment analysis in disaster response. Third, we focus on extracting public attitudes and analyzing the essential needs (e.g., food, housing, transportation, and medical supplies) for the public during disaster response, instead of merely targeting on studying positive or negative attitudes of the public to natural disasters. Fourth, we conduct this research from two different dimensions for a comprehensive understanding of public opinion on disaster response, since disparate hazards caused by different types of natural disasters.

Recent advances in high-fidelity virtual environments serve as one of the major driving forces for building intelligent embodied agents to perceive, reason and interact with the physical world. Typically, these environments remain unchanged unless agents interact with them. However, in real-world scenarios, agents might also face dynamically changing environments characterized by unexpected events and need to rapidly take action accordingly. To remedy this gap, we propose a new simulated embodied benchmark, called HAZARD, specifically designed to assess the decision-making abilities of embodied agents in dynamic situations. HAZARD consists of three unexpected disaster scenarios, including fire, flood, and wind, and specifically supports the utilization of large language models (LLMs) to assist common sense reasoning and decision-making. This benchmark enables us to evaluate autonomous agents' decision-making capabilities across various pipelines, including reinforcement learning (RL), rule-based, and search-based methods in dynamically changing environments. As a first step toward addressing this challenge using large language models, we further develop an LLM-based agent and perform an in-depth analysis of its promise and challenge of solving these challenging tasks. HAZARD is available at https://vis-www.cs.umass.edu/hazard/.

Online social media platforms, such as Twitter, provide valuable information during disaster events. Existing tweet disaster summarization approaches provide a summary of these events to aid government agencies, humanitarian organizations, etc., to ensure effective disaster response. In the literature, there are two types of approaches for disaster summarization, namely, supervised and unsupervised approaches. Although supervised approaches are typically more effective, they necessitate a sizable number of disaster event summaries for testing and training. However, there is a lack of good number of disaster summary datasets for training and evaluation. This motivates us to add more datasets to make supervised learning approaches more efficient. In this paper, we present ADSumm, which adds annotated ground-truth summaries for eight disaster events which consist of both natural and man-made disaster events belonging to seven different countries. Our experimental analysis shows that the newly added datasets improve the performance of the supervised summarization approaches by 8-28% in terms of ROUGE-N F1-score. Moreover, in newly annotated dataset, we have added a category label for each input tweet which helps to ensure good coverage from different categories in summary. Additionally, we have added two other features relevance label and key-phrase, which provide information about the quality of a tweet and explanation about the inclusion of the tweet into summary, respectively. For ground-truth summary creation, we provide the annotation procedure adapted in detail, which has not been described in existing literature. Experimental analysis shows the quality of ground-truth summary is very good with Coverage, Relevance and Diversity.

This paper details four principal challenges encountered with machine learning (ML) damage assessment using small uncrewed aerial systems (sUAS) at Hurricanes Debby and Helene that prevented, degraded, or delayed the delivery of data products during operations and suggests three research directions for future real-world deployments. The presence of these challenges is not surprising given that a review of the literature considering both datasets and proposed ML models suggests this is the first sUAS-based ML system for disaster damage assessment actually deployed as a part of real-world operations. The sUAS-based ML system was applied by the State of Florida to Hurricanes Helene (2 orthomosaics, 3.0 gigapixels collected over 2 sorties by a Wintra WingtraOne sUAS) and Debby (1 orthomosaic, 0.59 gigapixels collected via 1 sortie by a Wintra WingtraOne sUAS) in Florida. The same model was applied to crewed aerial imagery of inland flood damage resulting from post-tropical remnants of Hurricane Debby in Pennsylvania (436 orthophotos, 136.5 gigapixels), providing further insights into the advantages and limitations of sUAS for disaster response. The four challenges (variationin spatial resolution of input imagery, spatial misalignment between imagery and geospatial data, wireless connectivity, and data product format) lead to three recommendations that specify research needed to improve ML model capabilities to accommodate the wide variation of potential spatial resolutions used in practice, handle spatial misalignment, and minimize the dependency on wireless connectivity. These recommendations are expected to improve the effective operational use of sUAS and sUAS-based ML damage assessment systems for disaster response.

We present xBD, a new, large-scale dataset for the advancement of change detection and building damage assessment for humanitarian assistance and disaster recovery research. Natural disaster response requires an accurate understanding of damaged buildings in an affected region. Current response strategies require in-person damage assessments within 24-48 hours of a disaster. Massive potential exists for using aerial imagery combined with computer vision algorithms to assess damage and reduce the potential danger to human life. In collaboration with multiple disaster response agencies, xBD provides pre- and post-event satellite imagery across a variety of disaster events with building polygons, ordinal labels of damage level, and corresponding satellite metadata. Furthermore, the dataset contains bounding boxes and labels for environmental factors such as fire, water, and smoke. xBD is the largest building damage assessment dataset to date, containing 850,736 building annotations across 45,362 km2 of imagery.

Globally, artificial intelligence (AI) implementation is growing, holding the capability to fundamentally alter organisational processes and decision making. Simultaneously, this brings a multitude of emergent risks to organisations, exposing vulnerabilities in their extant risk management frameworks. This necessitates a greater understanding of how organisations can position themselves in response. This issue is particularly pertinent within the financial sector with relatively mature AI applications matched with severe societal repercussions of potential risk events. Despite this, academic risk management literature is trailing behind the speed of AI implementation. Adopting a management perspective, this study aims to contribute to the understanding of AI risk management in organisations through an exploratory empirical investigation into these practices. In-depth insights are gained through interviews with nine practitioners from different organisations within the UK financial sector. Through examining areas of organisational convergence and divergence, the findings of this study unearth levels of risk management framework readiness and prevailing approaches to risk management at both a processual and organisational level. Whilst enhancing the developing literature concerning AI risk management within organisations, the study simultaneously offers a practical contribution, providing key areas of guidance for practitioners in the operational development of AI risk management frameworks.

Landslides are one of the most critical and destructive geohazards. Widespread development of human activities and settlements combined with the effects of climate change on weather are resulting in a high increase in the frequency and destructive power of landslides, making them a major threat to human life and the economy. In this paper, we explore methodologies to map newly-occurred landslides using Sentinel-2 imagery automatically. All approaches presented are framed as a bi-temporal change detection problem, requiring only a pair of Sentinel-2 images, taken respectively before and after a landslide-triggering event. Furthermore, we introduce a novel deep learning architecture for fusing Sentinel-2 bi-temporal image pairs with Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data, showcasing its promising performances w.r.t. other change detection models in the literature. As a parallel task, we address limitations in existing datasets by creating a novel geodatabase, which includes manually validated open-access landslide inventories over heterogeneous ecoregions of the world. We release both code and dataset with an open-source license.

Severe convective weather events, such as hail, tornadoes, and thunderstorms, often occur quickly yet cause significant damage, costing billions of dollars every year. This highlights the importance of forecasting severe weather threats hours in advance to better prepare meteorologists and residents in at-risk areas. Can modern large foundation models perform such forecasting? Existing weather benchmarks typically focus only on predicting time-series changes in certain weather parameters (e.g., temperature, moisture) with text-only features. In this work, we introduce WeatherQA, the first multimodal dataset designed for machines to reason about complex combinations of weather parameters (a.k.a., ingredients) and predict severe weather in real-world scenarios. The dataset includes over 8,000 (multi-images, text) pairs for diverse severe weather events. Each pair contains rich information crucial for forecasting -- the images describe the ingredients capturing environmental instability, surface observations, and radar reflectivity, and the text contains forecast analyses written by human experts. With WeatherQA, we evaluate state-of-the-art vision language models, including GPT4, Claude3.5, Gemini-1.5, and a fine-tuned Llama3-based VLM, by designing two challenging tasks: (1) multi-choice QA for predicting affected area and (2) classification of the development potential of severe convection. These tasks require deep understanding of domain knowledge (e.g., atmospheric dynamics) and complex reasoning over multimodal data (e.g., interactions between weather parameters). We show a substantial gap between the strongest VLM, GPT4o, and human reasoning. Our comprehensive case study with meteorologists further reveals the weaknesses of the models, suggesting that better training and data integration are necessary to bridge this gap. WeatherQA link: https://github.com/chengqianma/WeatherQA.

Recent research in disaster informatics demonstrates a practical and important use case of artificial intelligence to save human lives and suffering during natural disasters based on social media contents (text and images). While notable progress has been made using texts, research on exploiting the images remains relatively under-explored. To advance image-based approaches, we propose MEDIC (Available at: https://crisisnlp.qcri.org/medic/index.html), which is the largest social media image classification dataset for humanitarian response consisting of 71,198 images to address four different tasks in a multi-task learning setup. This is the first dataset of its kind: social media images, disaster response, and multi-task learning research. An important property of this dataset is its high potential to facilitate research on multi-task learning, which recently receives much interest from the machine learning community and has shown remarkable results in terms of memory, inference speed, performance, and generalization capability. Therefore, the proposed dataset is an important resource for advancing image-based disaster management and multi-task machine learning research. We experiment with different deep learning architectures and report promising results, which are above the majority baselines for all tasks. Along with the dataset, we also release all relevant scripts (https://github.com/firojalam/medic).

In the face of escalating climate changes, typhoon intensities and their ensuing damage have surged. Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for effective damage control. Traditional physics-based models, while comprehensive, are computationally intensive and rely heavily on the expertise of forecasters. Contemporary data-driven methods often rely on reanalysis data, which can be considered to be the closest to the true representation of weather conditions. However, reanalysis data is not produced in real-time and requires time for adjustment because prediction models are calibrated with observational data. This reanalysis data, such as ERA5, falls short in challenging real-world situations. Optimal preparedness necessitates predictions at least 72 hours in advance, beyond the capabilities of standard physics models. In response to these constraints, we present an approach that harnesses real-time Unified Model (UM) data, sidestepping the limitations of reanalysis data. Our model provides predictions at 6-hour intervals for up to 72 hours in advance and outperforms both state-of-the-art data-driven methods and numerical weather prediction models. In line with our efforts to mitigate adversities inflicted by typhoons, we release our preprocessed PHYSICS TRACK dataset, which includes ERA5 reanalysis data, typhoon best-track, and UM forecast data.

Climate change is a major threat to humanity, and the actions required to prevent its catastrophic consequences include changes in both policy-making and individual behaviour. However, taking action requires understanding the effects of climate change, even though they may seem abstract and distant. Projecting the potential consequences of extreme climate events such as flooding in familiar places can help make the abstract impacts of climate change more concrete and encourage action. As part of a larger initiative to build a website that projects extreme climate events onto user-chosen photos, we present our solution to simulate photo-realistic floods on authentic images. To address this complex task in the absence of suitable training data, we propose ClimateGAN, a model that leverages both simulated and real data for unsupervised domain adaptation and conditional image generation. In this paper, we describe the details of our framework, thoroughly evaluate components of our architecture and demonstrate that our model is capable of robustly generating photo-realistic flooding.

Earthquake monitoring is necessary to promptly identify the affected areas, the severity of the events, and, finally, to estimate damages and plan the actions needed for the restoration process. The use of seismic stations to monitor the strength and origin of earthquakes is limited when dealing with remote areas (we cannot have global capillary coverage). Identification and analysis of all affected areas is mandatory to support areas not monitored by traditional stations. Using social media images in crisis management has proven effective in various situations. However, they are still limited by the possibility of using communication infrastructures in case of an earthquake and by the presence of people in the area. Moreover, social media images and messages cannot be used to estimate the actual severity of earthquakes and their characteristics effectively. The employment of satellites to monitor changes around the globe grants the possibility of exploiting instrumentation that is not limited by the visible spectrum, the presence of land infrastructures, and people in the affected areas. In this work, we propose a new dataset composed of images taken from Sentinel-1 and a new series of tasks to help monitor earthquakes from a new detailed view. Coupled with the data, we provide a series of traditional machine learning and deep learning models as baselines to assess the effectiveness of ML-based models in earthquake analysis.

This study addresses challenges in reverse logistics, a frequently overlooked but essential component of last-mile delivery, particularly in disaster relief scenarios where infrastructure disruptions demand adaptive solutions. While hub-and-spoke logistics networks excel at long-distance scalability, they often fail to optimize closely spaced spokes reliant on distant hubs, introducing inefficiencies in transit times and resource allocation. Using 20 Apple AirTags embedded in packages, this research provides empirical insights into logistical flows, capturing granular spatial and temporal data through Bluetooth LE (BLE) 5 trackers integrated with the Apple Find My network. These trackers demonstrated their value in monitoring dynamic cargo movements, enabling real-time adjustments in mobile hub placement and route optimization, particularly in disaster relief contexts like Hurricane Helene. A novel application of discrete event simulation (DES) further explored the saddle point in hub-spoke configurations, where excessive hub reliance clashes with diminishing spoke interaction demand. By coupling simulation results with empirical AirTag tracking, the study highlights the potential of BLE technology to refine reverse logistics, reduce delays, and improve operational flexibility in both routine and crisis-driven delivery networks.

Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have sparked growing concerns among experts, policymakers, and world leaders regarding the potential for increasingly advanced AI systems to pose catastrophic risks. Although numerous risks have been detailed separately, there is a pressing need for a systematic discussion and illustration of the potential dangers to better inform efforts to mitigate them. This paper provides an overview of the main sources of catastrophic AI risks, which we organize into four categories: malicious use, in which individuals or groups intentionally use AIs to cause harm; AI race, in which competitive environments compel actors to deploy unsafe AIs or cede control to AIs; organizational risks, highlighting how human factors and complex systems can increase the chances of catastrophic accidents; and rogue AIs, describing the inherent difficulty in controlling agents far more intelligent than humans. For each category of risk, we describe specific hazards, present illustrative stories, envision ideal scenarios, and propose practical suggestions for mitigating these dangers. Our goal is to foster a comprehensive understanding of these risks and inspire collective and proactive efforts to ensure that AIs are developed and deployed in a safe manner. Ultimately, we hope this will allow us to realize the benefits of this powerful technology while minimizing the potential for catastrophic outcomes.

There has been considerable recent interest in scoring properties on the basis of eviction risk. The success of methods for eviction prediction is typically evaluated using different measures of predictive accuracy. However, the underlying goal of such prediction is to direct appropriate assistance to households that may be at greater risk so they remain stably housed. Thus, we must ask the question of how useful such predictions are in targeting outreach efforts - informing action. In this paper, we investigate this question using a novel dataset that matches information on properties, evictions, and owners. We perform an eviction prediction task to produce risk scores and then use these risk scores to plan targeted outreach policies. We show that the risk scores are, in fact, useful, enabling a theoretical team of caseworkers to reach more eviction-prone properties in the same amount of time, compared to outreach policies that are either neighborhood-based or focus on buildings with a recent history of evictions. We also discuss the importance of neighborhood and ownership features in both risk prediction and targeted outreach.

This research showcases the innovative integration of Large Language Models into machine learning workflows for traffic incident management, focusing on the classification of incident severity using accident reports. By leveraging features generated by modern language models alongside conventional data extracted from incident reports, our research demonstrates improvements in the accuracy of severity classification across several machine learning algorithms. Our contributions are threefold. First, we present an extensive comparison of various machine learning models paired with multiple large language models for feature extraction, aiming to identify the optimal combinations for accurate incident severity classification. Second, we contrast traditional feature engineering pipelines with those enhanced by language models, showcasing the superiority of language-based feature engineering in processing unstructured text. Third, our study illustrates how merging baseline features from accident reports with language-based features can improve the severity classification accuracy. This comprehensive approach not only advances the field of incident management but also highlights the cross-domain application potential of our methodology, particularly in contexts requiring the prediction of event outcomes from unstructured textual data or features translated into textual representation. Specifically, our novel methodology was applied to three distinct datasets originating from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Queensland, Australia. This cross-continental application underlines the robustness of our approach, suggesting its potential for widespread adoption in improving incident management processes globally.

T\"urkiye is located on a fault line; earthquakes often occur on a large and small scale. There is a need for effective solutions for gathering current information during disasters. We can use social media to get insight into public opinion. This insight can be used in public relations and disaster management. In this study, Twitter posts on Izmir Earthquake that took place on October 2020 are analyzed. We question if this analysis can be used to make social inferences on time. Data mining and natural language processing (NLP) methods are used for this analysis. NLP is used for sentiment analysis and topic modelling. The latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) algorithm is used for topic modelling. We used the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model working with Transformers architecture for sentiment analysis. It is shown that the users shared their goodwill wishes and aimed to contribute to the initiated aid activities after the earthquake. The users desired to make their voices heard by competent institutions and organizations. The proposed methods work effectively. Future studies are also discussed.

This document presents the Center for Robot Assisted Search And Rescue - Uncrewed Aerial Systems - Disaster Response Overhead Inspection Dataset (CRASAR-U-DROIDs) for building damage assessment and spatial alignment collected from small uncrewed aerial systems (sUAS) geospatial imagery. This dataset is motivated by the increasing use of sUAS in disaster response and the lack of previous work in utilizing high-resolution geospatial sUAS imagery for machine learning and computer vision models, the lack of alignment with operational use cases, and with hopes of enabling further investigations between sUAS and satellite imagery. The CRASAR-U-DRIODs dataset consists of fifty-two (52) orthomosaics from ten (10) federally declared disasters (Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Ida, Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Idalia, Hurricane Laura, Hurricane Michael, Musset Bayou Fire, Mayfield Tornado, Kilauea Eruption, and Champlain Towers Collapse) spanning 67.98 square kilometers (26.245 square miles), containing 21,716 building polygons and damage labels, and 7,880 adjustment annotations. The imagery was tiled and presented in conjunction with overlaid building polygons to a pool of 130 annotators who provided human judgments of damage according to the Joint Damage Scale. These annotations were then reviewed via a two-stage review process in which building polygon damage labels were first reviewed individually and then again by committee. Additionally, the building polygons have been aligned spatially to precisely overlap with the imagery to enable more performant machine learning models to be trained. It appears that CRASAR-U-DRIODs is the largest labeled dataset of sUAS orthomosaic imagery.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit advancing capabilities in complex tasks, such as reasoning and graduate-level question answering, yet their resilience against misuse, particularly involving scientifically sophisticated risks, remains underexplored. Existing safety benchmarks typically focus either on instructions requiring minimal knowledge comprehension (e.g., ``tell me how to build a bomb") or utilize prompts that are relatively low-risk (e.g., multiple-choice or classification tasks about hazardous content). Consequently, they fail to adequately assess model safety when handling knowledge-intensive, hazardous scenarios. To address this critical gap, we introduce SOSBench, a regulation-grounded, hazard-focused benchmark encompassing six high-risk scientific domains: chemistry, biology, medicine, pharmacology, physics, and psychology. The benchmark comprises 3,000 prompts derived from real-world regulations and laws, systematically expanded via an LLM-assisted evolutionary pipeline that introduces diverse, realistic misuse scenarios (e.g., detailed explosive synthesis instructions involving advanced chemical formulas). We evaluate frontier models within a unified evaluation framework using our SOSBench. Despite their alignment claims, advanced models consistently disclose policy-violating content across all domains, demonstrating alarmingly high rates of harmful responses (e.g., 79.1% for Deepseek-R1 and 47.3% for GPT-4.1). These results highlight significant safety alignment deficiencies and underscore urgent concerns regarding the responsible deployment of powerful LLMs.

The rise of Agent AI and Large Language Model-powered Multi-Agent Systems (LLM-MAS) has underscored the need for responsible and dependable system operation. Tools like LangChain and Retrieval-Augmented Generation have expanded LLM capabilities, enabling deeper integration into MAS through enhanced knowledge retrieval and reasoning. However, these advancements introduce critical challenges: LLM agents exhibit inherent unpredictability, and uncertainties in their outputs can compound across interactions, threatening system stability. To address these risks, a human-centered design approach with active dynamic moderation is essential. Such an approach enhances traditional passive oversight by facilitating coherent inter-agent communication and effective system governance, allowing MAS to achieve desired outcomes more efficiently.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) and generative AI become increasingly widespread, concerns about content safety have grown in parallel. Currently, there is a clear lack of high-quality, human-annotated datasets that address the full spectrum of LLM-related safety risks and are usable for commercial applications. To bridge this gap, we propose a comprehensive and adaptable taxonomy for categorizing safety risks, structured into 12 top-level hazard categories with an extension to 9 fine-grained subcategories. This taxonomy is designed to meet the diverse requirements of downstream users, offering more granular and flexible tools for managing various risk types. Using a hybrid data generation pipeline that combines human annotations with a multi-LLM "jury" system to assess the safety of responses, we obtain Aegis 2.0, a carefully curated collection of 34,248 samples of human-LLM interactions, annotated according to our proposed taxonomy. To validate its effectiveness, we demonstrate that several lightweight models, trained using parameter-efficient techniques on Aegis 2.0, achieve performance competitive with leading safety models fully fine-tuned on much larger, non-commercial datasets. In addition, we introduce a novel training blend that combines safety with topic following data.This approach enhances the adaptability of guard models, enabling them to generalize to new risk categories defined during inference. We plan to open-source Aegis 2.0 data and models to the research community to aid in the safety guardrailing of LLMs.

Forest wildfires represent one of the catastrophic events that, over the last decades, caused huge environmental and humanitarian damages. In addition to a significant amount of carbon dioxide emission, they are a source of risk to society in both short-term (e.g., temporary city evacuation due to fire) and long-term (e.g., higher risks of landslides) cases. Consequently, the availability of tools to support local authorities in automatically identifying burned areas plays an important role in the continuous monitoring requirement to alleviate the aftereffects of such catastrophic events. The great availability of satellite acquisitions coupled with computer vision techniques represents an important step in developing such tools. This paper introduces a novel open dataset that tackles the burned area delineation problem, a binary segmentation problem applied to satellite imagery. The presented resource consists of pre- and post-fire Sentinel-2 L2A acquisitions of California forest fires that took place starting in 2015. Raster annotations were generated from the data released by California's Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Moreover, in conjunction with the dataset, we release three different baselines based on spectral indexes analyses, SegFormer, and U-Net models.

This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have demonstrated significant limitations during periods of market stress, as evidenced during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent volatile periods. This study develops an advanced expectile-based framework that addresses the shortcomings of conventional quantile-based approaches by providing greater sensitivity to tail losses and improved stability in extreme market conditions. The research employs a dataset spanning two decades of FTSE 100 returns, incorporating periods of high volatility, market crashes, and recovery phases. Our methodology introduces novel mathematical formulations for expectile regression models, enhanced threshold determination techniques using time series analysis, and robust backtesting procedures. The empirical results demonstrate that expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) consistently outperforms traditional VaR measures across various confidence levels and market conditions. The framework exhibits superior performance during volatile periods, with reduced model risk and enhanced predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the study establishes practical implementation guidelines for financial institutions and provides evidence-based recommendations for regulatory compliance and portfolio management. The findings contribute significantly to the literature on financial risk management and offer practical tools for practitioners dealing with volatile market environments.

Floods wreak havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damages, and uprooting communities, ecosystems and economies. The NASA Impact Flood Detection competition tasked participants with predicting flooded pixels after training with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images in a supervised setting. We propose a semi-supervised learning pseudo-labeling scheme that derives confidence estimates from U-Net ensembles, progressively improving accuracy. Concretely, we use a cyclical approach involving multiple stages (1) training an ensemble model of multiple U-Net architectures with the provided high confidence hand-labeled data and, generated pseudo labels or low confidence labels on the entire unlabeled test dataset, and then, (2) filter out quality generated labels and, (3) combine the generated labels with the previously available high confidence hand-labeled dataset. This assimilated dataset is used for the next round of training ensemble models and the cyclical process is repeated until the performance improvement plateaus. We post process our results with Conditional Random Fields. Our approach sets a new state-of-the-art on the Sentinel-1 dataset with 0.7654 IoU, an impressive improvement over the 0.60 IoU baseline. Our method, which we release with all the code and models, can also be used as an open science benchmark for the Sentinel-1 dataset.

Large language models (LLMs) are demonstrating increasing prowess in cybersecurity applications, creating creating inherent risks alongside their potential for strengthening defenses. In this position paper, we argue that current efforts to evaluate risks posed by these capabilities are misaligned with the goal of understanding real-world impact. Evaluating LLM cybersecurity risk requires more than just measuring model capabilities -- it demands a comprehensive risk assessment that incorporates analysis of threat actor adoption behavior and potential for impact. We propose a risk assessment framework for LLM cyber capabilities and apply it to a case study of language models used as cybersecurity assistants. Our evaluation of frontier models reveals high compliance rates but moderate accuracy on realistic cyber assistance tasks. However, our framework suggests that this particular use case presents only moderate risk due to limited operational advantages and impact potential. Based on these findings, we recommend several improvements to align research priorities with real-world impact assessment, including closer academia-industry collaboration, more realistic modeling of attacker behavior, and inclusion of economic metrics in evaluations. This work represents an important step toward more effective assessment and mitigation of LLM-enabled cybersecurity risks.

Understanding the characteristics of public attention and sentiment is an essential prerequisite for appropriate crisis management during adverse health events. This is even more crucial during a pandemic such as COVID-19, as primary responsibility of risk management is not centralized to a single institution, but distributed across society. While numerous studies utilize Twitter data in descriptive or predictive context during COVID-19 pandemic, causal modeling of public attention has not been investigated. In this study, we propose a causal inference approach to discover and quantify causal relationships between pandemic characteristics (e.g. number of infections and deaths) and Twitter activity as well as public sentiment. Our results show that the proposed method can successfully capture the epidemiological domain knowledge and identify variables that affect public attention and sentiment. We believe our work contributes to the field of infodemiology by distinguishing events that correlate with public attention from events that cause public attention.

Predicting wildfire spread is critical for land management and disaster preparedness. To this end, we present `Next Day Wildfire Spread,' a curated, large-scale, multivariate data set of historical wildfires aggregating nearly a decade of remote-sensing data across the United States. In contrast to existing fire data sets based on Earth observation satellites, our data set combines 2D fire data with multiple explanatory variables (e.g., topography, vegetation, weather, drought index, population density) aligned over 2D regions, providing a feature-rich data set for machine learning. To demonstrate the usefulness of this data set, we implement a neural network that takes advantage of the spatial information of this data to predict wildfire spread. We compare the performance of the neural network with other machine learning models: logistic regression and random forest. This data set can be used as a benchmark for developing wildfire propagation models based on remote sensing data for a lead time of one day.

With the global refugee crisis at a historic high, there is a growing need to assess the impact of refugee settlements on their hosting countries and surrounding environments. Because fires are an important land management practice in smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa, burned area (BA) mappings can help provide information about the impacts of land management practices on local environments. However, a lack of BA ground-truth data in much of sub-Saharan Africa limits the use of highly scalable deep learning (DL) techniques for such BA mappings. In this work, we propose a scalable transfer learning approach to study BA dynamics in areas with little to no ground-truth data such as the West Nile region in Northern Uganda. We train a deep learning model on BA ground-truth data in Portugal and propose the application of that model on refugee-hosting districts in West Nile between 2015 and 2020. By comparing the district-level BA dynamic with the wider West Nile region, we aim to add understanding of the land management impacts of refugee settlements on their surrounding environments.

Risk management in finance involves recognizing, evaluating, and addressing financial risks to maintain stability and ensure regulatory compliance. Extracting relevant insights from extensive regulatory documents is a complex challenge requiring advanced retrieval and language models. This paper introduces RiskData, a dataset specifically curated for finetuning embedding models in risk management, and RiskEmbed, a finetuned embedding model designed to improve retrieval accuracy in financial question-answering systems. The dataset is derived from 94 regulatory guidelines published by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) from 1991 to 2024. We finetune a state-of-the-art sentence BERT embedding model to enhance domain-specific retrieval performance typically for Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. Experimental results demonstrate that RiskEmbed significantly outperforms general-purpose and financial embedding models, achieving substantial improvements in ranking metrics. By open-sourcing both the dataset and the model, we provide a valuable resource for financial institutions and researchers aiming to develop more accurate and efficient risk management AI solutions.

Canada experienced in 2023 one of the most severe wildfire seasons in recent history, causing damage across ecosystems, destroying communities, and emitting large quantities of CO2. This extreme wildfire season is symptomatic of a climate-change-induced increase in the length and severity of the fire season that affects the boreal ecosystem. Therefore, it is critical to empower wildfire management in boreal communities with better mitigation solutions. Wildfire probability maps represent an important tool for understanding the likelihood of wildfire occurrence and the potential severity of future wildfires. The massive increase in the availability of Earth observation data has enabled the development of deep learning-based wildfire forecasting models, aiming at providing precise wildfire probability maps at different spatial and temporal scales. A main limitation of such methods is their reliance on coarse-resolution environmental drivers and satellite products, leading to wildfire occurrence prediction of reduced resolution, typically around sim 0.1{\deg}. This paper presents a benchmark dataset: CanadaFireSat, and baseline methods for high-resolution: 100 m wildfire forecasting across Canada, leveraging multi-modal data from high-resolution multi-spectral satellite images (Sentinel-2 L1C), mid-resolution satellite products (MODIS), and environmental factors (ERA5 reanalysis data). Our experiments consider two major deep learning architectures. We observe that using multi-modal temporal inputs outperforms single-modal temporal inputs across all metrics, achieving a peak performance of 60.3% in F1 score for the 2023 wildfire season, a season never seen during model training. This demonstrates the potential of multi-modal deep learning models for wildfire forecasting at high-resolution and continental scale.

The Internet of Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state of the art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.

After a hurricane, damage assessment is critical to emergency managers for efficient response and resource allocation. One way to gauge the damage extent is to quantify the number of flooded/damaged buildings, which is traditionally done by ground survey. This process can be labor-intensive and time-consuming. In this paper, we propose to improve the efficiency of building damage assessment by applying image classification algorithms to post-hurricane satellite imagery. At the known building coordinates (available from public data), we extract square-sized images from the satellite imagery to create training, validation, and test datasets. Each square-sized image contains a building to be classified as either 'Flooded/Damaged' (labeled by volunteers in a crowd-sourcing project) or 'Undamaged'. We design and train a convolutional neural network from scratch and compare it with an existing neural network used widely for common object classification. We demonstrate the promise of our damage annotation model (over 97% accuracy) in the case study of building damage assessment in the Greater Houston area affected by 2017 Hurricane Harvey.

The increasing population of objects in geostationary orbit has raised concerns about the potential risks posed by debris clouds resulting from fragmentation. The short-term evolution and associated hazards of debris generated by collisions in the geostationary region is investigated in this study. The initial distribution of two debris clouds is modeled using a single probability density function.The combined distribution of the evolved clouds is determined by solving boundary value problems.The risks associated with these debris clouds are evaluated by calculating the instantaneous impact rate and cumulative collision probability.The probability of collisions with millimeter-sized fragments may increase to 1% within 36 hours, while the probability of collisions with fragments 5 cm or larger is approximately 10^{-5}.These findings underscore the vulnerability of the geostationary region to space traffic accidents.

Through a systematic review of academic literature, we propose a taxonomy of systemic risks associated with artificial intelligence (AI), in particular general-purpose AI. Following the EU AI Act's definition, we consider systemic risks as large-scale threats that can affect entire societies or economies. Starting with an initial pool of 1,781 documents, we analyzed 86 selected papers to identify 13 categories of systemic risks and 50 contributing sources. Our findings reveal a complex landscape of potential threats, ranging from environmental harm and structural discrimination to governance failures and loss of control. Key sources of systemic risk emerge from knowledge gaps, challenges in recognizing harm, and the unpredictable trajectory of AI development. The taxonomy provides a snapshot of current academic literature on systemic risks. This paper contributes to AI safety research by providing a structured groundwork for understanding and addressing the potential large-scale negative societal impacts of general-purpose AI. The taxonomy can inform policymakers in risk prioritization and regulatory development.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

This paper aims to help structure the risk landscape associated with large-scale Language Models (LMs). In order to foster advances in responsible innovation, an in-depth understanding of the potential risks posed by these models is needed. A wide range of established and anticipated risks are analysed in detail, drawing on multidisciplinary expertise and literature from computer science, linguistics, and social sciences. We outline six specific risk areas: I. Discrimination, Exclusion and Toxicity, II. Information Hazards, III. Misinformation Harms, V. Malicious Uses, V. Human-Computer Interaction Harms, VI. Automation, Access, and Environmental Harms. The first area concerns the perpetuation of stereotypes, unfair discrimination, exclusionary norms, toxic language, and lower performance by social group for LMs. The second focuses on risks from private data leaks or LMs correctly inferring sensitive information. The third addresses risks arising from poor, false or misleading information including in sensitive domains, and knock-on risks such as the erosion of trust in shared information. The fourth considers risks from actors who try to use LMs to cause harm. The fifth focuses on risks specific to LLMs used to underpin conversational agents that interact with human users, including unsafe use, manipulation or deception. The sixth discusses the risk of environmental harm, job automation, and other challenges that may have a disparate effect on different social groups or communities. In total, we review 21 risks in-depth. We discuss the points of origin of different risks and point to potential mitigation approaches. Lastly, we discuss organisational responsibilities in implementing mitigations, and the role of collaboration and participation. We highlight directions for further research, particularly on expanding the toolkit for assessing and evaluating the outlined risks in LMs.