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Jun 13

Beyond the Mean: Limit Theory and Tests for Infinite-Mean Autoregressive Conditional Durations

Integrated autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models serve as natural counterparts to the well-known integrated GARCH models used for financial returns. However, despite their resemblance, asymptotic theory for ACD is challenging and also not complete, in particular for integrated ACD. Central challenges arise from the facts that (i) integrated ACD processes imply durations with infinite expectation, and (ii) even in the non-integrated case, conventional asymptotic approaches break down due to the randomness in the number of durations within a fixed observation period. Addressing these challenges, we provide here unified asymptotic theory for the (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimator for ACD models; a unified theory which includes integrated ACD models. Based on the new results, we also provide a novel framework for hypothesis testing in duration models, enabling inference on a key empirical question: whether durations possess a finite or infinite expectation. We apply our results to high-frequency cryptocurrency ETF trading data. Motivated by parameter estimates near the integrated ACD boundary, we assess whether durations between trades in these markets have finite expectation, an assumption often made implicitly in the literature on point process models. Our empirical findings indicate infinite-mean durations for all the five cryptocurrencies examined, with the integrated ACD hypothesis rejected -- against alternatives with tail index less than one -- for four out of the five cryptocurrencies considered.

Hallo2: Long-Duration and High-Resolution Audio-Driven Portrait Image Animation

Recent advances in latent diffusion-based generative models for portrait image animation, such as Hallo, have achieved impressive results in short-duration video synthesis. In this paper, we present updates to Hallo, introducing several design enhancements to extend its capabilities. First, we extend the method to produce long-duration videos. To address substantial challenges such as appearance drift and temporal artifacts, we investigate augmentation strategies within the image space of conditional motion frames. Specifically, we introduce a patch-drop technique augmented with Gaussian noise to enhance visual consistency and temporal coherence over long duration. Second, we achieve 4K resolution portrait video generation. To accomplish this, we implement vector quantization of latent codes and apply temporal alignment techniques to maintain coherence across the temporal dimension. By integrating a high-quality decoder, we realize visual synthesis at 4K resolution. Third, we incorporate adjustable semantic textual labels for portrait expressions as conditional inputs. This extends beyond traditional audio cues to improve controllability and increase the diversity of the generated content. To the best of our knowledge, Hallo2, proposed in this paper, is the first method to achieve 4K resolution and generate hour-long, audio-driven portrait image animations enhanced with textual prompts. We have conducted extensive experiments to evaluate our method on publicly available datasets, including HDTF, CelebV, and our introduced "Wild" dataset. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in long-duration portrait video animation, successfully generating rich and controllable content at 4K resolution for duration extending up to tens of minutes. Project page https://fudan-generative-vision.github.io/hallo2

Predicting the duration of traffic incidents for Sydney greater metropolitan area using machine learning methods

This research presents a comprehensive approach to predicting the duration of traffic incidents and classifying them as short-term or long-term across the Sydney Metropolitan Area. Leveraging a dataset that encompasses detailed records of traffic incidents, road network characteristics, and socio-economic indicators, we train and evaluate a variety of advanced machine learning models including Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT), Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost. The models are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for regression tasks and F1 score for classification tasks. Our experimental results demonstrate that XGBoost and LightGBM outperform conventional models with XGBoost achieving the lowest RMSE of 33.7 for predicting incident duration and highest classification F1 score of 0.62 for a 30-minute duration threshold. For classification, the 30-minute threshold balances performance with 70.84% short-term duration classification accuracy and 62.72% long-term duration classification accuracy. Feature importance analysis, employing both tree split counts and SHAP values, identifies the number of affected lanes, traffic volume, and types of primary and secondary vehicles as the most influential features. The proposed methodology not only achieves high predictive accuracy but also provides stakeholders with vital insights into factors contributing to incident durations. These insights enable more informed decision-making for traffic management and response strategies. The code is available by the link: https://github.com/Future-Mobility-Lab/SydneyIncidents

MiraData: A Large-Scale Video Dataset with Long Durations and Structured Captions

Sora's high-motion intensity and long consistent videos have significantly impacted the field of video generation, attracting unprecedented attention. However, existing publicly available datasets are inadequate for generating Sora-like videos, as they mainly contain short videos with low motion intensity and brief captions. To address these issues, we propose MiraData, a high-quality video dataset that surpasses previous ones in video duration, caption detail, motion strength, and visual quality. We curate MiraData from diverse, manually selected sources and meticulously process the data to obtain semantically consistent clips. GPT-4V is employed to annotate structured captions, providing detailed descriptions from four different perspectives along with a summarized dense caption. To better assess temporal consistency and motion intensity in video generation, we introduce MiraBench, which enhances existing benchmarks by adding 3D consistency and tracking-based motion strength metrics. MiraBench includes 150 evaluation prompts and 17 metrics covering temporal consistency, motion strength, 3D consistency, visual quality, text-video alignment, and distribution similarity. To demonstrate the utility and effectiveness of MiraData, we conduct experiments using our DiT-based video generation model, MiraDiT. The experimental results on MiraBench demonstrate the superiority of MiraData, especially in motion strength.

Lumina-T2X: Transforming Text into Any Modality, Resolution, and Duration via Flow-based Large Diffusion Transformers

Sora unveils the potential of scaling Diffusion Transformer for generating photorealistic images and videos at arbitrary resolutions, aspect ratios, and durations, yet it still lacks sufficient implementation details. In this technical report, we introduce the Lumina-T2X family - a series of Flow-based Large Diffusion Transformers (Flag-DiT) equipped with zero-initialized attention, as a unified framework designed to transform noise into images, videos, multi-view 3D objects, and audio clips conditioned on text instructions. By tokenizing the latent spatial-temporal space and incorporating learnable placeholders such as [nextline] and [nextframe] tokens, Lumina-T2X seamlessly unifies the representations of different modalities across various spatial-temporal resolutions. This unified approach enables training within a single framework for different modalities and allows for flexible generation of multimodal data at any resolution, aspect ratio, and length during inference. Advanced techniques like RoPE, RMSNorm, and flow matching enhance the stability, flexibility, and scalability of Flag-DiT, enabling models of Lumina-T2X to scale up to 7 billion parameters and extend the context window to 128K tokens. This is particularly beneficial for creating ultra-high-definition images with our Lumina-T2I model and long 720p videos with our Lumina-T2V model. Remarkably, Lumina-T2I, powered by a 5-billion-parameter Flag-DiT, requires only 35% of the training computational costs of a 600-million-parameter naive DiT. Our further comprehensive analysis underscores Lumina-T2X's preliminary capability in resolution extrapolation, high-resolution editing, generating consistent 3D views, and synthesizing videos with seamless transitions. We expect that the open-sourcing of Lumina-T2X will further foster creativity, transparency, and diversity in the generative AI community.

Using Explainable AI and Transfer Learning to understand and predict the maintenance of Atlantic blocking with limited observational data

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial Intelligence are a class of data analysis methods that can help identify physical causes of prolonged blocking events and diagnose model deficiencies. We demonstrate this approach on an idealized quasigeostrophic model developed by Marshall and Molteni (1993). We train a convolutional neural network (CNN), and subsequently, build a sparse predictive model for the persistence of Atlantic blocking, conditioned on an initial high-pressure anomaly. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) analysis reveals that high-pressure anomalies in the American Southeast and North Atlantic, separated by a trough over Atlantic Canada, contribute significantly to prediction of sustained blocking events in the Atlantic region. This agrees with previous work that identified precursors in the same regions via wave train analysis. When we apply the same CNN to blockings in the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, there is insufficient data to accurately predict persistent blocks. We partially overcome this limitation by pre-training the CNN on the plentiful data of the Marshall-Molteni model, and then using Transfer Learning to achieve better predictions than direct training. SHAP analysis before and after transfer learning allows a comparison between the predictive features in the reanalysis and the quasigeostrophic model, quantifying dynamical biases in the idealized model. This work demonstrates the potential for machine learning methods to extract meaningful precursors of extreme weather events and achieve better prediction using limited observational data.

FlexSpeech: Towards Stable, Controllable and Expressive Text-to-Speech

Current speech generation research can be categorized into two primary classes: non-autoregressive and autoregressive. The fundamental distinction between these approaches lies in the duration prediction strategy employed for predictable-length sequences. The NAR methods ensure stability in speech generation by explicitly and independently modeling the duration of each phonetic unit. Conversely, AR methods employ an autoregressive paradigm to predict the compressed speech token by implicitly modeling duration with Markov properties. Although this approach improves prosody, it does not provide the structural guarantees necessary for stability. To simultaneously address the issues of stability and naturalness in speech generation, we propose FlexSpeech, a stable, controllable, and expressive TTS model. The motivation behind FlexSpeech is to incorporate Markov dependencies and preference optimization directly on the duration predictor to boost its naturalness while maintaining explicit modeling of the phonetic units to ensure stability. Specifically, we decompose the speech generation task into two components: an AR duration predictor and a NAR acoustic model. The acoustic model is trained on a substantial amount of data to learn to render audio more stably, given reference audio prosody and phone durations. The duration predictor is optimized in a lightweight manner for different stylistic variations, thereby enabling rapid style transfer while maintaining a decoupled relationship with the specified speaker timbre. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves SOTA stability and naturalness in zero-shot TTS. More importantly, when transferring to a specific stylistic domain, we can accomplish lightweight optimization of the duration module solely with about 100 data samples, without the need to adjust the acoustic model, thereby enabling rapid and stable style transfer.