Daily Papers

Off-policy learning (OPL) aims at finding improved policies from logged bandit data, often by minimizing the inverse propensity scoring (IPS) estimator of the risk. In this work, we investigate a smooth regularization for IPS, for which we derive a two-sided PAC-Bayes generalization bound. The bound is tractable, scalable, interpretable and provides learning certificates. In particular, it is also valid for standard IPS without making the assumption that the importance weights are bounded. We demonstrate the relevance of our approach and its favorable performance through a set of learning tasks. Since our bound holds for standard IPS, we are able to provide insight into when regularizing IPS is useful. Namely, we identify cases where regularization might not be needed. This goes against the belief that, in practice, clipped IPS often enjoys favorable performance than standard IPS in OPL.

Transformers have been actively studied for time-series forecasting in recent years. While often showing promising results in various scenarios, traditional Transformers are not designed to fully exploit the characteristics of time-series data and thus suffer some fundamental limitations, e.g., they generally lack of decomposition capability and interpretability, and are neither effective nor efficient for long-term forecasting. In this paper, we propose ETSFormer, a novel time-series Transformer architecture, which exploits the principle of exponential smoothing in improving Transformers for time-series forecasting. In particular, inspired by the classical exponential smoothing methods in time-series forecasting, we propose the novel exponential smoothing attention (ESA) and frequency attention (FA) to replace the self-attention mechanism in vanilla Transformers, thus improving both accuracy and efficiency. Based on these, we redesign the Transformer architecture with modular decomposition blocks such that it can learn to decompose the time-series data into interpretable time-series components such as level, growth and seasonality. Extensive experiments on various time-series benchmarks validate the efficacy and advantages of the proposed method. Code is available at https://github.com/salesforce/ETSformer.

For a long-time, researchers have been developing a reliable and accurate predictive model for stock price prediction. According to the literature, if predictive models are correctly designed and refined, they can painstakingly and faithfully estimate future stock values. This paper demonstrates a set of time series, econometric, and various learning-based models for stock price prediction. The data of Infosys, ICICI, and SUN PHARMA from the period of January 2004 to December 2019 was used here for training and testing the models to know which model performs best in which sector. One time series model (Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing), one econometric model (ARIMA), two machine Learning models (Random Forest and MARS), and two deep learning-based models (simple RNN and LSTM) have been included in this paper. MARS has been proved to be the best performing machine learning model, while LSTM has proved to be the best performing deep learning model. But overall, for all three sectors - IT (on Infosys data), Banking (on ICICI data), and Health (on SUN PHARMA data), MARS has proved to be the best performing model in sales forecasting.

We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor graph associated with the emission distribution. This allows the exponential-in-dimension cost of exact filtering and smoothing to be avoided. We prove that the approximation accuracy, measured in a local total variation norm, is "dimension-free" in the sense that as the overall dimension of the model increases the error bounds we derive do not necessarily degrade. A key step in the analysis is to quantify the error introduced by localizing the likelihood function in a Bayes' rule update. The factorial structure of the likelihood function which we exploit arises naturally when data have known spatial or network structure. We demonstrate the new algorithms on synthetic examples and a London Underground passenger flow problem, where the factor graph is effectively given by the train network.

Spectrograms are pivotal in time-frequency signal analysis, widely used in audio processing and computational neuroscience. Chirp-like patterns in electroencephalogram (EEG) spectrograms (marked by linear or exponential frequency sweep) are key biomarkers for seizure dynamics, but automated tools for their detection, localization, and feature extraction are lacking. This study bridges this gap by fine-tuning a Vision Transformer (ViT) model on synthetic spectrograms, augmented with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) to boost adaptability. We generated 100000 synthetic spectrograms with chirp parameters, creating the first large-scale benchmark for chirp localization. These spectrograms mimic neural chirps using linear or exponential frequency sweep, Gaussian noise, and smoothing. A ViT model, adapted for regression, predicted chirp parameters. LoRA fine-tuned the attention layers, enabling efficient updates to the pre-trained backbone. Training used MSE loss and the AdamW optimizer, with a learning rate scheduler and early stopping to curb overfitting. Only three features were targeted: Chirp Start Time (Onset Time), Chirp Start Frequency (Onset Frequency), and Chirp End Frequency (Offset Frequency). Performance was evaluated via Pearson correlation between predicted and actual labels. Results showed strong alignment: 0.9841 correlation for chirp start time, with stable inference times (137 to 140s) and minimal bias in error distributions. This approach offers a tool for chirp analysis in EEG time-frequency representation, filling a critical methodological void.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

The recovery of time-varying graph signals is a fundamental problem with numerous applications in sensor networks and forecasting in time series. Effectively capturing the spatio-temporal information in these signals is essential for the downstream tasks. Previous studies have used the smoothness of the temporal differences of such graph signals as an initial assumption. Nevertheless, this smoothness assumption could result in a degradation of performance in the corresponding application when the prior does not hold. In this work, we relax the requirement of this hypothesis by including a learning module. We propose a Time Graph Neural Network (TimeGNN) for the recovery of time-varying graph signals. Our algorithm uses an encoder-decoder architecture with a specialized loss composed of a mean squared error function and a Sobolev smoothness operator.TimeGNN shows competitive performance against previous methods in real datasets.

Oil production forecasting is an important step in controlling the cost-effect and monitoring the functioning of petroleum reservoirs. As a result, oil production forecasting makes it easier for reservoir engineers to develop feasible projects, which helps to avoid risky investments and achieve long-term growth. As a result, reliable petroleum reservoir forecasting is critical for controlling and managing the effective cost of oil reservoirs. Oil production is influenced by reservoir qualities such as porosity, permeability, compressibility, fluid saturation, and other well operational parameters. Three-time series algorithms i.e., Seasonal Naive method, Exponential Smoothening and ARIMA to forecast the Distillate Fuel Oil Refinery and Propane Blender net production for the next two years.

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly when considering exponential or non-parametric kernels. Although non-parametric kernels are an option, such models require large datasets. While exponential kernels are more data efficient and relevant for specific applications where events immediately trigger more events, they are ill-suited for applications where latencies need to be estimated, such as in neuroscience. This work aims to offer an efficient solution to TPP inference using general parametric kernels with finite support. The developed solution consists of a fast ell_2 gradient-based solver leveraging a discretized version of the events. After theoretically supporting the use of discretization, the statistical and computational efficiency of the novel approach is demonstrated through various numerical experiments. Finally, the method's effectiveness is evaluated by modeling the occurrence of stimuli-induced patterns from brain signals recorded with magnetoencephalography (MEG). Given the use of general parametric kernels, results show that the proposed approach leads to an improved estimation of pattern latency than the state-of-the-art.

Computers calculate transcendental functions by approximating them through the composition of a few limited-precision instructions. For example, an exponential can be calculated with a Taylor series. These approximation methods were developed over the centuries by mathematicians, who emphasized the attainability of arbitrary precision. Computers, however, operate on few limited precision types, such as the popular float32. In this study, we show that when aiming for limited precision, existing approximation methods can be outperformed by programs automatically discovered from scratch by a simple evolutionary algorithm. In particular, over real numbers, our method can approximate the exponential function reaching orders of magnitude more precision for a given number of operations when compared to previous approaches. More practically, over float32 numbers and constrained to less than 1 ULP of error, the same method attains a speedup over baselines by generating code that triggers better XLA/LLVM compilation paths. In other words, in both cases, evolution searched a vast space of possible programs, without knowledge of mathematics, to discover previously unknown optimized approximations to high precision, for the first time. We also give evidence that these results extend beyond the exponential. The ubiquity of transcendental functions suggests that our method has the potential to reduce the cost of scientific computing applications.

Kernel methods are widely used in machine learning, especially for classification problems. However, the theoretical analysis of kernel classification is still limited. This paper investigates the statistical performances of kernel classifiers. With some mild assumptions on the conditional probability eta(x)=P(Y=1mid X=x), we derive an upper bound on the classification excess risk of a kernel classifier using recent advances in the theory of kernel regression. We also obtain a minimax lower bound for Sobolev spaces, which shows the optimality of the proposed classifier. Our theoretical results can be extended to the generalization error of overparameterized neural network classifiers. To make our theoretical results more applicable in realistic settings, we also propose a simple method to estimate the interpolation smoothness of 2eta(x)-1 and apply the method to real datasets.

In this paper, we study the problem of principal component analysis with generative modeling assumptions, adopting a general model for the observed matrix that encompasses notable special cases, including spiked matrix recovery and phase retrieval. The key assumption is that the underlying signal lies near the range of an L-Lipschitz continuous generative model with bounded k-dimensional inputs. We propose a quadratic estimator, and show that it enjoys a statistical rate of order frac{klog L{m}}, where m is the number of samples. We also provide a near-matching algorithm-independent lower bound. Moreover, we provide a variant of the classic power method, which projects the calculated data onto the range of the generative model during each iteration. We show that under suitable conditions, this method converges exponentially fast to a point achieving the above-mentioned statistical rate. We perform experiments on various image datasets for spiked matrix and phase retrieval models, and illustrate performance gains of our method to the classic power method and the truncated power method devised for sparse principal component analysis.

When fitting the learning data of an individual to algorithm-like learning models, the observations are so dependent and non-stationary that one may wonder what the classical Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) could do, even if it is the usual tool applied to experimental cognition. Our objective in this work is to show that the estimation of the learning rate cannot be efficient if the learning rate is constant in the classical Exp3 (Exponential weights for Exploration and Exploitation) algorithm. Secondly, we show that if the learning rate decreases polynomially with the sample size, then the prediction error and in some cases the estimation error of the MLE satisfy bounds in probability that decrease at a polynomial rate.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

Robustness is essential for deep neural networks, especially in security-sensitive applications. To this end, randomized smoothing provides theoretical guarantees for certifying robustness against adversarial perturbations. Recently, diffusion models have been successfully employed for randomized smoothing to purify noise-perturbed samples before making predictions with a standard classifier. While these methods excel at small perturbation radii, they struggle with larger perturbations and incur a significant computational overhead during inference compared to classical methods. To address this, we reformulate the generative modeling task along the diffusion trajectories in pixel space as a discriminative task in the latent space. Specifically, we use instance discrimination to achieve consistent representations along the trajectories by aligning temporally adjacent points. After fine-tuning based on the learned representations, our model enables implicit denoising-then-classification via a single prediction, substantially reducing inference costs. We conduct extensive experiments on various datasets and achieve state-of-the-art performance with minimal computation budget during inference. For example, our method outperforms the certified accuracy of diffusion-based methods on ImageNet across all perturbation radii by 5.3% on average, with up to 11.6% at larger radii, while reducing inference costs by 85times on average. Codes are available at: https://github.com/jiachenlei/rRCM.

Various optimal gradient-based algorithms have been developed for smooth nonconvex optimization. However, many nonconvex machine learning problems do not belong to the class of smooth functions and therefore the existing algorithms are sub-optimal. Instead, these problems have been shown to satisfy certain generalized-smooth conditions, which have not been well understood in the existing literature. In this paper, we propose a notion of alpha-symmetric generalized-smoothness that extends the existing notions and covers many important functions such as high-order polynomials and exponential functions. We study the fundamental properties and establish descent lemmas for the functions in this class. Then, to solve such a large class of nonconvex problems, we design a special deterministic normalized gradient descent algorithm that achieves the optimal iteration complexity O(epsilon^{-2}), and also prove that the popular SPIDER variance reduction algorithm achieves the optimal sample complexity O(epsilon^{-3}) in the stochastic setting. Our results show that solving generalized-smooth nonconvex problems is as efficient as solving smooth nonconvex problems.

We consider a family of algorithms that successively sample and minimize simple stochastic models of the objective function. We show that under reasonable conditions on approximation quality and regularity of the models, any such algorithm drives a natural stationarity measure to zero at the rate O(k^{-1/4}). As a consequence, we obtain the first complexity guarantees for the stochastic proximal point, proximal subgradient, and regularized Gauss-Newton methods for minimizing compositions of convex functions with smooth maps. The guiding principle, underlying the complexity guarantees, is that all algorithms under consideration can be interpreted as approximate descent methods on an implicit smoothing of the problem, given by the Moreau envelope. Specializing to classical circumstances, we obtain the long-sought convergence rate of the stochastic projected gradient method, without batching, for minimizing a smooth function on a closed convex set.

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

Non-linear state-space models, also known as general hidden Markov models, are ubiquitous in statistical machine learning, being the most classical generative models for serial data and sequences in general. The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother PaRIS is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under the smoothing distribution in these models. Such expectations appear naturally in several learning contexts, such as likelihood estimation (MLE) and Markov score climbing (MSC). PARIS has linear computational complexity, limited memory requirements and comes with non-asymptotic bounds, convergence results and stability guarantees. Still, being based on self-normalised importance sampling, the PaRIS estimator is biased. Our first contribution is to design a novel additive smoothing algorithm, the Parisian particle Gibbs PPG sampler, which can be viewed as a PaRIS algorithm driven by conditional SMC moves, resulting in bias-reduced estimates of the targeted quantities. We substantiate the PPG algorithm with theoretical results, including new bounds on bias and variance as well as deviation inequalities. Our second contribution is to apply PPG in a learning framework, covering MLE and MSC as special examples. In this context, we establish, under standard assumptions, non-asymptotic bounds highlighting the value of bias reduction and the implicit Rao--Blackwellization of PPG. These are the first non-asymptotic results of this kind in this setting. We illustrate our theoretical results with numerical experiments supporting our claims.

Diffusion models have recently been increasingly applied to temporal data such as video, fluid mechanics simulations, or climate data. These methods generally treat subsequent frames equally regarding the amount of noise in the diffusion process. This paper explores Rolling Diffusion: a new approach that uses a sliding window denoising process. It ensures that the diffusion process progressively corrupts through time by assigning more noise to frames that appear later in a sequence, reflecting greater uncertainty about the future as the generation process unfolds. Empirically, we show that when the temporal dynamics are complex, Rolling Diffusion is superior to standard diffusion. In particular, this result is demonstrated in a video prediction task using the Kinetics-600 video dataset and in a chaotic fluid dynamics forecasting experiment.

We develop a framework for non-asymptotic analysis of deterministic samplers used for diffusion generative modeling. Several recent works have analyzed stochastic samplers using tools like Girsanov's theorem and a chain rule variant of the interpolation argument. Unfortunately, these techniques give vacuous bounds when applied to deterministic samplers. We give a new operational interpretation for deterministic sampling by showing that one step along the probability flow ODE can be expressed as two steps: 1) a restoration step that runs gradient ascent on the conditional log-likelihood at some infinitesimally previous time, and 2) a degradation step that runs the forward process using noise pointing back towards the current iterate. This perspective allows us to extend denoising diffusion implicit models to general, non-linear forward processes. We then develop the first polynomial convergence bounds for these samplers under mild conditions on the data distribution.

Understanding and analyzing markets is crucial, yet analytical equilibrium solutions remain largely infeasible. Recent breakthroughs in equilibrium computation rely on zeroth-order policy gradient estimation. These approaches commonly suffer from high variance and are computationally expensive. The use of fully differentiable simulators would enable more efficient gradient estimation. However, the discrete allocation of goods in economic simulations is a non-differentiable operation. This renders the first-order Monte Carlo gradient estimator inapplicable and the learning feedback systematically misleading. We propose a novel smoothing technique that creates a surrogate market game, in which first-order methods can be applied. We provide theoretical bounds on the resulting bias which justifies solving the smoothed game instead. These bounds also allow choosing the smoothing strength a priori such that the resulting estimate has low variance. Furthermore, we validate our approach via numerous empirical experiments. Our method theoretically and empirically outperforms zeroth-order methods in approximation quality and computational efficiency.

In recent years, denoising diffusion models have become a crucial area of research due to their abundance in the rapidly expanding field of generative AI. While recent statistical advances have delivered explanations for the generation ability of idealised denoising diffusion models for high-dimensional target data, implementations introduce thresholding procedures for the generating process to overcome issues arising from the unbounded state space of such models. This mismatch between theoretical design and implementation of diffusion models has been addressed empirically by using a reflected diffusion process as the driver of noise instead. In this paper, we study statistical guarantees of these denoising reflected diffusion models. In particular, we establish minimax optimal rates of convergence in total variation, up to a polylogarithmic factor, under Sobolev smoothness assumptions. Our main contributions include the statistical analysis of this novel class of denoising reflected diffusion models and a refined score approximation method in both time and space, leveraging spectral decomposition and rigorous neural network analysis.

Given a matrix Ain R^{ntimes d} and a vector bin R^n, we consider the regression problem with ell_infty guarantees: finding a vector x'in R^d such that |x'-x^*|_infty leq epsilon{d}cdot |Ax^*-b|_2cdot |A^dagger| where x^*=argmin_{xin R^d}|Ax-b|_2. One popular approach for solving such ell_2 regression problem is via sketching: picking a structured random matrix Sin R^{mtimes n} with mll n and SA can be quickly computed, solve the ``sketched'' regression problem argmin_{xin R^d} |SAx-Sb|_2. In this paper, we show that in order to obtain such ell_infty guarantee for ell_2 regression, one has to use sketching matrices that are dense. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first user case in which dense sketching matrices are necessary. On the algorithmic side, we prove that there exists a distribution of dense sketching matrices with m=epsilon^{-2}dlog^3(n/delta) such that solving the sketched regression problem gives the ell_infty guarantee, with probability at least 1-delta. Moreover, the matrix SA can be computed in time O(ndlog n). Our row count is nearly-optimal up to logarithmic factors, and significantly improves the result in [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], in which a super-linear in d rows, m=Omega(epsilon^{-2}d^{1+gamma}) for gamma=Theta(frac{loglog n{log d}}) is required. We also develop a novel analytical framework for ell_infty guarantee regression that utilizes the Oblivious Coordinate-wise Embedding (OCE) property introduced in [Song and Yu, ICML'21]. Our analysis is arguably much simpler and more general than [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], and it extends to dense sketches for tensor product of vectors.

We give an improved theoretical analysis of score-based generative modeling. Under a score estimate with small L^2 error (averaged across timesteps), we provide efficient convergence guarantees for any data distribution with second-order moment, by either employing early stopping or assuming smoothness condition on the score function of the data distribution. Our result does not rely on any log-concavity or functional inequality assumption and has a logarithmic dependence on the smoothness. In particular, we show that under only a finite second moment condition, approximating the following in reverse KL divergence in epsilon-accuracy can be done in tilde Oleft(d log (1/delta){epsilon}right) steps: 1) the variance-delta Gaussian perturbation of any data distribution; 2) data distributions with 1/delta-smooth score functions. Our analysis also provides a quantitative comparison between different discrete approximations and may guide the choice of discretization points in practice.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

In this work, we develop new optimization algorithms that use approximate second-order information combined with the gradient regularization technique to achieve fast global convergence rates for both convex and non-convex objectives. The key innovation of our analysis is a novel notion called Gradient-Normalized Smoothness, which characterizes the maximum radius of a ball around the current point that yields a good relative approximation of the gradient field. Our theory establishes a natural intrinsic connection between Hessian approximation and the linearization of the gradient. Importantly, Gradient-Normalized Smoothness does not depend on the specific problem class of the objective functions, while effectively translating local information about the gradient field and Hessian approximation into the global behavior of the method. This new concept equips approximate second-order algorithms with universal global convergence guarantees, recovering state-of-the-art rates for functions with H\"older-continuous Hessians and third derivatives, quasi-self-concordant functions, as well as smooth classes in first-order optimization. These rates are achieved automatically and extend to broader classes, such as generalized self-concordant functions. We demonstrate direct applications of our results for global linear rates in logistic regression and softmax problems with approximate Hessians, as well as in non-convex optimization using Fisher and Gauss-Newton approximations.

Smoothness and low dimensional structures play central roles in improving generalization and stability in learning and statistics. This work combines techniques from semi-infinite constrained learning and manifold regularization to learn representations that are globally smooth on a manifold. To do so, it shows that under typical conditions the problem of learning a Lipschitz continuous function on a manifold is equivalent to a dynamically weighted manifold regularization problem. This observation leads to a practical algorithm based on a weighted Laplacian penalty whose weights are adapted using stochastic gradient techniques. It is shown that under mild conditions, this method estimates the Lipschitz constant of the solution, learning a globally smooth solution as a byproduct. Experiments on real world data illustrate the advantages of the proposed method relative to existing alternatives.

We present new algorithms for optimizing non-smooth, non-convex stochastic objectives based on a novel analysis technique. This improves the current best-known complexity for finding a (delta,epsilon)-stationary point from O(epsilon^{-4}delta^{-1}) stochastic gradient queries to O(epsilon^{-3}delta^{-1}), which we also show to be optimal. Our primary technique is a reduction from non-smooth non-convex optimization to online learning, after which our results follow from standard regret bounds in online learning. For deterministic and second-order smooth objectives, applying more advanced optimistic online learning techniques enables a new complexity of O(epsilon^{-1.5}delta^{-0.5}). Our techniques also recover all optimal or best-known results for finding epsilon stationary points of smooth or second-order smooth objectives in both stochastic and deterministic settings.

Hyperspectral image (HSI) restoration aims at recovering clean images from degraded observations and plays a vital role in downstream tasks. Existing model-based methods have limitations in accurately modeling the complex image characteristics with handcraft priors, and deep learning-based methods suffer from poor generalization ability. To alleviate these issues, this paper proposes an unsupervised HSI restoration framework with pre-trained diffusion model (HIR-Diff), which restores the clean HSIs from the product of two low-rank components, i.e., the reduced image and the coefficient matrix. Specifically, the reduced image, which has a low spectral dimension, lies in the image field and can be inferred from our improved diffusion model where a new guidance function with total variation (TV) prior is designed to ensure that the reduced image can be well sampled. The coefficient matrix can be effectively pre-estimated based on singular value decomposition (SVD) and rank-revealing QR (RRQR) factorization. Furthermore, a novel exponential noise schedule is proposed to accelerate the restoration process (about 5times acceleration for denoising) with little performance decrease. Extensive experimental results validate the superiority of our method in both performance and speed on a variety of HSI restoration tasks, including HSI denoising, noisy HSI super-resolution, and noisy HSI inpainting. The code is available at https://github.com/LiPang/HIRDiff.

Recent studies of gradient descent with large step sizes have shown that there is often a regime with an initial increase in the largest eigenvalue of the loss Hessian (progressive sharpening), followed by a stabilization of the eigenvalue near the maximum value which allows convergence (edge of stability). These phenomena are intrinsically non-linear and do not happen for models in the constant Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime, for which the predictive function is approximately linear in the parameters. As such, we consider the next simplest class of predictive models, namely those that are quadratic in the parameters, which we call second-order regression models. For quadratic objectives in two dimensions, we prove that this second-order regression model exhibits progressive sharpening of the NTK eigenvalue towards a value that differs slightly from the edge of stability, which we explicitly compute. In higher dimensions, the model generically shows similar behavior, even without the specific structure of a neural network, suggesting that progressive sharpening and edge-of-stability behavior aren't unique features of neural networks, and could be a more general property of discrete learning algorithms in high-dimensional non-linear models.

Diffusion models currently dominate the field of data-driven image synthesis with their unparalleled scaling to large datasets. In this paper, we identify and rectify several causes for uneven and ineffective training in the popular ADM diffusion model architecture, without altering its high-level structure. Observing uncontrolled magnitude changes and imbalances in both the network activations and weights over the course of training, we redesign the network layers to preserve activation, weight, and update magnitudes on expectation. We find that systematic application of this philosophy eliminates the observed drifts and imbalances, resulting in considerably better networks at equal computational complexity. Our modifications improve the previous record FID of 2.41 in ImageNet-512 synthesis to 1.81, achieved using fast deterministic sampling. As an independent contribution, we present a method for setting the exponential moving average (EMA) parameters post-hoc, i.e., after completing the training run. This allows precise tuning of EMA length without the cost of performing several training runs, and reveals its surprising interactions with network architecture, training time, and guidance.

We study the problem of online generalized linear regression in the stochastic setting, where the label is generated from a generalized linear model with possibly unbounded additive noise. We provide a sharp analysis of the classical follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) algorithm to cope with the label noise. More specifically, for sigma-sub-Gaussian label noise, our analysis provides a regret upper bound of O(sigma^2 d log T) + o(log T), where d is the dimension of the input vector, T is the total number of rounds. We also prove a Omega(sigma^2dlog(T/d)) lower bound for stochastic online linear regression, which indicates that our upper bound is nearly optimal. In addition, we extend our analysis to a more refined Bernstein noise condition. As an application, we study generalized linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise and propose an algorithm based on FTRL to achieve the first variance-aware regret bound.

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a widely used weight averaging (WA) regularization to learn flat optima for better generalizations without extra cost in deep neural network (DNN) optimization. Despite achieving better flatness, existing WA methods might fall into worse final performances or require extra test-time computations. This work unveils the full potential of EMA with a single line of modification, i.e., switching the EMA parameters to the original model after each epoch, dubbed as Switch EMA (SEMA). From both theoretical and empirical aspects, we demonstrate that SEMA can help DNNs to reach generalization optima that better trade-off between flatness and sharpness. To verify the effectiveness of SEMA, we conduct comparison experiments with discriminative, generative, and regression tasks on vision and language datasets, including image classification, self-supervised learning, object detection and segmentation, image generation, video prediction, attribute regression, and language modeling. Comprehensive results with popular optimizers and networks show that SEMA is a free lunch for DNN training by improving performances and boosting convergence speeds.

In this work, we consider rather general and broad class of Markov chains, Ito chains, that look like Euler-Maryama discretization of some Stochastic Differential Equation. The chain we study is a unified framework for theoretical analysis. It comes with almost arbitrary isotropic and state-dependent noise instead of normal and state-independent one as in most related papers. Moreover, in our chain the drift and diffusion coefficient can be inexact in order to cover wide range of applications as Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics, sampling, Stochastic Gradient Descent or Stochastic Gradient Boosting. We prove the bound in W_{2}-distance between the laws of our Ito chain and corresponding differential equation. These results improve or cover most of the known estimates. And for some particular cases, our analysis is the first.

We present an algorithm for minimizing an objective with hard-to-compute gradients by using a related, easier-to-access function as a proxy. Our algorithm is based on approximate proximal point iterations on the proxy combined with relatively few stochastic gradients from the objective. When the difference between the objective and the proxy is delta-smooth, our algorithm guarantees convergence at a rate matching stochastic gradient descent on a delta-smooth objective, which can lead to substantially better sample efficiency. Our algorithm has many potential applications in machine learning, and provides a principled means of leveraging synthetic data, physics simulators, mixed public and private data, and more.

Recent years have witnessed the rapid progress and broad application of diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs). Sampling from DPMs can be viewed as solving an ordinary differential equation (ODE). Despite the promising performance, the generation of DPMs usually consumes much time due to the large number of function evaluations (NFE). Though recent works have accelerated the sampling to around 20 steps with high-order solvers, the sample quality with less than 10 NFE can still be improved. In this paper, we propose a unified sampling framework (USF) to study the optional strategies for solver. Under this framework, we further reveal that taking different solving strategies at different timesteps may help further decrease the truncation error, and a carefully designed solver schedule has the potential to improve the sample quality by a large margin. Therefore, we propose a new sampling framework based on the exponential integral formulation that allows free choices of solver strategy at each step and design specific decisions for the framework. Moreover, we propose S^3, a predictor-based search method that automatically optimizes the solver schedule to get a better time-quality trade-off of sampling. We demonstrate that S^3 can find outstanding solver schedules which outperform the state-of-the-art sampling methods on CIFAR-10, CelebA, ImageNet, and LSUN-Bedroom datasets. Specifically, we achieve 2.69 FID with 10 NFE and 6.86 FID with 5 NFE on CIFAR-10 dataset, outperforming the SOTA method significantly. We further apply S^3 to Stable-Diffusion model and get an acceleration ratio of 2times, showing the feasibility of sampling in very few steps without retraining the neural network.

Appropriately designing the proposal kernel of particle filters is an issue of significant importance, since a bad choice may lead to deterioration of the particle sample and, consequently, waste of computational power. In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm adaptively approximating the so-called optimal proposal kernel by a mixture of integrated curved exponential distributions with logistic weights. This family of distributions, referred to as mixtures of experts, is broad enough to be used in the presence of multi-modality or strongly skewed distributions. The mixtures are fitted, via online-EM methods, to the optimal kernel through minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the auxiliary target and instrumental distributions of the particle filter. At each iteration of the particle filter, the algorithm is required to solve only a single optimisation problem for the whole particle sample, yielding an algorithm with only linear complexity. In addition, we illustrate in a simulation study how the method can be successfully applied to optimal filtering in nonlinear state-space models.

Training neural networks requires optimizing a loss function that may be highly irregular, and in particular neither convex nor smooth. Popular training algorithms are based on stochastic gradient descent with momentum (SGDM), for which classical analysis applies only if the loss is either convex or smooth. We show that a very small modification to SGDM closes this gap: simply scale the update at each time point by an exponentially distributed random scalar. The resulting algorithm achieves optimal convergence guarantees. Intriguingly, this result is not derived by a specific analysis of SGDM: instead, it falls naturally out of a more general framework for converting online convex optimization algorithms to non-convex optimization algorithms.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

The past few years have witnessed the great success of Diffusion models~(DMs) in generating high-fidelity samples in generative modeling tasks. A major limitation of the DM is its notoriously slow sampling procedure which normally requires hundreds to thousands of time discretization steps of the learned diffusion process to reach the desired accuracy. Our goal is to develop a fast sampling method for DMs with a much less number of steps while retaining high sample quality. To this end, we systematically analyze the sampling procedure in DMs and identify key factors that affect the sample quality, among which the method of discretization is most crucial. By carefully examining the learned diffusion process, we propose Diffusion Exponential Integrator Sampler~(DEIS). It is based on the Exponential Integrator designed for discretizing ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and leverages a semilinear structure of the learned diffusion process to reduce the discretization error. The proposed method can be applied to any DMs and can generate high-fidelity samples in as few as 10 steps. In our experiments, it takes about 3 minutes on one A6000 GPU to generate 50k images from CIFAR10. Moreover, by directly using pre-trained DMs, we achieve the state-of-art sampling performance when the number of score function evaluation~(NFE) is limited, e.g., 4.17 FID with 10 NFEs, 3.37 FID, and 9.74 IS with only 15 NFEs on CIFAR10. Code is available at https://github.com/qsh-zh/deis

Given the exponential growth of the volume of the ball w.r.t. its radius, the hyperbolic space is capable of embedding trees with arbitrarily small distortion and hence has received wide attention for representing hierarchical datasets. However, this exponential growth property comes at a price of numerical instability such that training hyperbolic learning models will sometimes lead to catastrophic NaN problems, encountering unrepresentable values in floating point arithmetic. In this work, we carefully analyze the limitation of two popular models for the hyperbolic space, namely, the Poincar\'e ball and the Lorentz model. We first show that, under the 64 bit arithmetic system, the Poincar\'e ball has a relatively larger capacity than the Lorentz model for correctly representing points. Then, we theoretically validate the superiority of the Lorentz model over the Poincar\'e ball from the perspective of optimization. Given the numerical limitations of both models, we identify one Euclidean parametrization of the hyperbolic space which can alleviate these limitations. We further extend this Euclidean parametrization to hyperbolic hyperplanes and exhibits its ability in improving the performance of hyperbolic SVM.

For infinite action contextual bandits, smoothed regret and reduction to regression results in state-of-the-art online performance with computational cost independent of the action set: unfortunately, the resulting data exhaust does not have well-defined importance-weights. This frustrates the execution of downstream data science processes such as offline model selection. In this paper we describe an online algorithm with an equivalent smoothed regret guarantee, but which generates well-defined importance weights: in exchange, the online computational cost increases, but only to order smoothness (i.e., still independent of the action set). This removes a key obstacle to adoption of smoothed regret in production scenarios.

Risk-averse reinforcement learning finds application in various high-stakes fields. Unlike classical reinforcement learning, which aims to maximize expected returns, risk-averse agents choose policies that minimize risk, occasionally sacrificing expected value. These preferences can be framed through utility theory. We focus on the specific case of the exponential utility function, where we can derive the Bellman equations and employ various reinforcement learning algorithms with few modifications. However, these methods suffer from numerical instability due to the need for exponent computation throughout the process. To address this, we introduce a numerically stable and mathematically sound loss function based on the Itakura-Saito divergence for learning state-value and action-value functions. We evaluate our proposed loss function against established alternatives, both theoretically and empirically. In the experimental section, we explore multiple financial scenarios, some with known analytical solutions, and show that our loss function outperforms the alternatives.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

Computing the optimal transport distance between statistical distributions is a fundamental task in machine learning. One remarkable recent advancement is entropic regularization and the Sinkhorn algorithm, which utilizes only matrix scaling and guarantees an approximated solution with near-linear runtime. Despite the success of the Sinkhorn algorithm, its runtime may still be slow due to the potentially large number of iterations needed for convergence. To achieve possibly super-exponential convergence, we present Sinkhorn-Newton-Sparse (SNS), an extension to the Sinkhorn algorithm, by introducing early stopping for the matrix scaling steps and a second stage featuring a Newton-type subroutine. Adopting the variational viewpoint that the Sinkhorn algorithm maximizes a concave Lyapunov potential, we offer the insight that the Hessian matrix of the potential function is approximately sparse. Sparsification of the Hessian results in a fast O(n^2) per-iteration complexity, the same as the Sinkhorn algorithm. In terms of total iteration count, we observe that the SNS algorithm converges orders of magnitude faster across a wide range of practical cases, including optimal transportation between empirical distributions and calculating the Wasserstein W_1, W_2 distance of discretized densities. The empirical performance is corroborated by a rigorous bound on the approximate sparsity of the Hessian matrix.

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

Randomized smoothing is the state-of-the-art approach to construct image classifiers that are provably robust against additive adversarial perturbations of bounded magnitude. However, it is more complicated to construct reasonable certificates against semantic transformation (e.g., image blurring, translation, gamma correction) and their compositions. In this work, we propose General Lipschitz (GL), a new framework to certify neural networks against composable resolvable semantic perturbations. Within the framework, we analyze transformation-dependent Lipschitz-continuity of smoothed classifiers w.r.t. transformation parameters and derive corresponding robustness certificates. Our method performs comparably to state-of-the-art approaches on the ImageNet dataset.

Diffusion models have been recently studied as powerful generative inverse problem solvers, owing to their high quality reconstructions and the ease of combining existing iterative solvers. However, most works focus on solving simple linear inverse problems in noiseless settings, which significantly under-represents the complexity of real-world problems. In this work, we extend diffusion solvers to efficiently handle general noisy (non)linear inverse problems via approximation of the posterior sampling. Interestingly, the resulting posterior sampling scheme is a blended version of diffusion sampling with the manifold constrained gradient without a strict measurement consistency projection step, yielding a more desirable generative path in noisy settings compared to the previous studies. Our method demonstrates that diffusion models can incorporate various measurement noise statistics such as Gaussian and Poisson, and also efficiently handle noisy nonlinear inverse problems such as Fourier phase retrieval and non-uniform deblurring. Code available at https://github.com/DPS2022/diffusion-posterior-sampling

Diffusion models have gained traction as powerful algorithms for synthesizing high-quality images. Central to these algorithms is the diffusion process, a set of equations which maps data to noise in a way that can significantly affect performance. In this paper, we explore whether the diffusion process can be learned from data. Our work is grounded in Bayesian inference and seeks to improve log-likelihood estimation by casting the learned diffusion process as an approximate variational posterior that yields a tighter lower bound (ELBO) on the likelihood. A widely held assumption is that the ELBO is invariant to the noise process: our work dispels this assumption and proposes multivariate learned adaptive noise (MULAN), a learned diffusion process that applies noise at different rates across an image. Specifically, our method relies on a multivariate noise schedule that is a function of the data to ensure that the ELBO is no longer invariant to the choice of the noise schedule as in previous works. Empirically, MULAN sets a new state-of-the-art in density estimation on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet and reduces the number of training steps by 50%. Code is available at https://github.com/s-sahoo/MuLAN

Unlabeled data is a key component of modern machine learning. In general, the role of unlabeled data is to impose a form of smoothness, usually from the similarity information encoded in a base kernel, such as the epsilon-neighbor kernel or the adjacency matrix of a graph. This work revisits the classical idea of spectrally transformed kernel regression (STKR), and provides a new class of general and scalable STKR estimators able to leverage unlabeled data. Intuitively, via spectral transformation, STKR exploits the data distribution for which unlabeled data can provide additional information. First, we show that STKR is a principled and general approach, by characterizing a universal type of "target smoothness", and proving that any sufficiently smooth function can be learned by STKR. Second, we provide scalable STKR implementations for the inductive setting and a general transformation function, while prior work is mostly limited to the transductive setting. Third, we derive statistical guarantees for two scenarios: STKR with a known polynomial transformation, and STKR with kernel PCA when the transformation is unknown. Overall, we believe that this work helps deepen our understanding of how to work with unlabeled data, and its generality makes it easier to inspire new methods.

We prove new convergence rates for a generalized version of stochastic Nesterov acceleration under interpolation conditions. Unlike previous analyses, our approach accelerates any stochastic gradient method which makes sufficient progress in expectation. The proof, which proceeds using the estimating sequences framework, applies to both convex and strongly convex functions and is easily specialized to accelerated SGD under the strong growth condition. In this special case, our analysis reduces the dependence on the strong growth constant from rho to rho as compared to prior work. This improvement is comparable to a square-root of the condition number in the worst case and address criticism that guarantees for stochastic acceleration could be worse than those for SGD.

Optimal transport (OT) aims to find a map T that transports mass from one probability measure to another while minimizing a cost function. Recently, neural OT solvers have gained popularity in high dimensional biological applications such as drug perturbation, due to their superior computational and memory efficiency compared to traditional exact Sinkhorn solvers. However, the overly complex high dimensional maps learned by neural OT solvers often suffer from poor interpretability. Prior work addressed this issue in the context of exact OT solvers by introducing displacement-sparse maps via designed elastic cost, but such method failed to be applied to neural OT settings. In this work, we propose an intuitive and theoretically grounded approach to learning displacement-sparse maps within neural OT solvers. Building on our new formulation, we introduce a novel smoothed ell_0 regularizer that outperforms the ell_1 based alternative from prior work. Leveraging Input Convex Neural Network's flexibility, we further develop a heuristic framework for adaptively controlling sparsity intensity, an approach uniquely enabled by the neural OT paradigm. We demonstrate the necessity of this adaptive framework in large-scale, high-dimensional training, showing not only improved accuracy but also practical ease of use for downstream applications.

Machine learning models have recently found tremendous success in data-driven control systems. However, standard learning models often suffer from an accuracy-robustness trade-off, which is a limitation that must be overcome in the control of safety-critical systems that require both high performance and rigorous robustness guarantees. In this work, we build upon the recent "locally biased smoothing" method to develop classifiers that simultaneously inherit high accuracy from standard models and high robustness from robust models. Specifically, we extend locally biased smoothing to the multi-class setting, and then overcome its performance bottleneck by generalizing the formulation to "mix" the outputs of a standard neural network and a robust neural network. We prove that when the robustness of the robust base model is certifiable, within a closed-form ell_p radius, no alteration or attack on an input can result in misclassification of the mixed classifier; the proposed model inherits the certified robustness. Moreover, we use numerical experiments on the CIFAR-10 benchmark dataset to verify that the mixed model noticeably improves the accuracy-robustness trade-off.

Despite their remarkable effectiveness and broad application, the drivers of success underlying ensembles of trees are still not fully understood. In this paper, we highlight how interpreting tree ensembles as adaptive and self-regularizing smoothers can provide new intuition and deeper insight to this topic. We use this perspective to show that, when studied as smoothers, randomized tree ensembles not only make predictions that are quantifiably more smooth than the predictions of the individual trees they consist of, but also further regulate their smoothness at test-time based on the dissimilarity between testing and training inputs. First, we use this insight to revisit, refine and reconcile two recent explanations of forest success by providing a new way of quantifying the conjectured behaviors of tree ensembles objectively by measuring the effective degree of smoothing they imply. Then, we move beyond existing explanations for the mechanisms by which tree ensembles improve upon individual trees and challenge the popular wisdom that the superior performance of forests should be understood as a consequence of variance reduction alone. We argue that the current high-level dichotomy into bias- and variance-reduction prevalent in statistics is insufficient to understand tree ensembles -- because the prevailing definition of bias does not capture differences in the expressivity of the hypothesis classes formed by trees and forests. Instead, we show that forests can improve upon trees by three distinct mechanisms that are usually implicitly entangled. In particular, we demonstrate that the smoothing effect of ensembling can reduce variance in predictions due to noise in outcome generation, reduce variability in the quality of the learned function given fixed input data and reduce potential bias in learnable functions by enriching the available hypothesis space.

Real-life applications of deep neural networks are hindered by their unsteady predictions when faced with noisy inputs and adversarial attacks. The certified radius in this context is a crucial indicator of the robustness of models. However how to design an efficient classifier with an associated certified radius? Randomized smoothing provides a promising framework by relying on noise injection into the inputs to obtain a smoothed and robust classifier. In this paper, we first show that the variance introduced by the Monte-Carlo sampling in the randomized smoothing procedure estimate closely interacts with two other important properties of the classifier, i.e. its Lipschitz constant and margin. More precisely, our work emphasizes the dual impact of the Lipschitz constant of the base classifier, on both the smoothed classifier and the empirical variance. To increase the certified robust radius, we introduce a different way to convert logits to probability vectors for the base classifier to leverage the variance-margin trade-off. We leverage the use of Bernstein's concentration inequality along with enhanced Lipschitz bounds for randomized smoothing. Experimental results show a significant improvement in certified accuracy compared to current state-of-the-art methods. Our novel certification procedure allows us to use pre-trained models with randomized smoothing, effectively improving the current certification radius in a zero-shot manner.

Diffusion models, which employ stochastic differential equations to sample images through integrals, have emerged as a dominant class of generative models. However, the rationality of the diffusion process itself receives limited attention, leaving the question of whether the problem is well-posed and well-conditioned. In this paper, we uncover a vexing propensity of diffusion models: they frequently exhibit the infinite Lipschitz near the zero point of timesteps. This poses a threat to the stability and accuracy of the diffusion process, which relies on integral operations. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of the issue from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. To address this challenge, we propose a novel approach, dubbed E-TSDM, which eliminates the Lipschitz singularity of the diffusion model near zero. Remarkably, our technique yields a substantial improvement in performance, e.g., on the high-resolution FFHQ dataset (256times256). Moreover, as a byproduct of our method, we manage to achieve a dramatic reduction in the Frechet Inception Distance of other acceleration methods relying on network Lipschitz, including DDIM and DPM-Solver, by over 33%. We conduct extensive experiments on diverse datasets to validate our theory and method. Our work not only advances the understanding of the general diffusion process, but also provides insights for the design of diffusion models.

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

While diffusion models can learn complex distributions, sampling requires a computationally expensive iterative process. Existing distillation methods enable efficient sampling, but have notable limitations, such as performance degradation with very few sampling steps, reliance on training data access, or mode-seeking optimization that may fail to capture the full distribution. We propose EM Distillation (EMD), a maximum likelihood-based approach that distills a diffusion model to a one-step generator model with minimal loss of perceptual quality. Our approach is derived through the lens of Expectation-Maximization (EM), where the generator parameters are updated using samples from the joint distribution of the diffusion teacher prior and inferred generator latents. We develop a reparametrized sampling scheme and a noise cancellation technique that together stabilizes the distillation process. We further reveal an interesting connection of our method with existing methods that minimize mode-seeking KL. EMD outperforms existing one-step generative methods in terms of FID scores on ImageNet-64 and ImageNet-128, and compares favorably with prior work on distilling text-to-image diffusion models.

We introduce a multi-fidelity estimator of covariance matrices that employs the log-Euclidean geometry of the symmetric positive-definite manifold. The estimator fuses samples from a hierarchy of data sources of differing fidelities and costs for variance reduction while guaranteeing definiteness, in contrast with previous approaches. The new estimator makes covariance estimation tractable in applications where simulation or data collection is expensive; to that end, we develop an optimal sample allocation scheme that minimizes the mean-squared error of the estimator given a fixed budget. Guaranteed definiteness is crucial to metric learning, data assimilation, and other downstream tasks. Evaluations of our approach using data from physical applications (heat conduction, fluid dynamics) demonstrate more accurate metric learning and speedups of more than one order of magnitude compared to benchmarks.

Bilevel optimization is an important formulation for many machine learning problems. Current bilevel optimization algorithms assume that the gradient of the upper-level function is Lipschitz. However, recent studies reveal that certain neural networks such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and long-short-term memory networks (LSTMs) exhibit potential unbounded smoothness, rendering conventional bilevel optimization algorithms unsuitable. In this paper, we design a new bilevel optimization algorithm, namely BO-REP, to address this challenge. This algorithm updates the upper-level variable using normalized momentum and incorporates two novel techniques for updating the lower-level variable: initialization refinement and periodic updates. Specifically, once the upper-level variable is initialized, a subroutine is invoked to obtain a refined estimate of the corresponding optimal lower-level variable, and the lower-level variable is updated only after every specific period instead of each iteration. When the upper-level problem is nonconvex and unbounded smooth, and the lower-level problem is strongly convex, we prove that our algorithm requires mathcal{O}(1/epsilon^4) iterations to find an epsilon-stationary point in the stochastic setting, where each iteration involves calling a stochastic gradient or Hessian-vector product oracle. Notably, this result matches the state-of-the-art complexity results under the bounded smoothness setting and without mean-squared smoothness of the stochastic gradient, up to logarithmic factors. Our proof relies on novel technical lemmas for the periodically updated lower-level variable, which are of independent interest. Our experiments on hyper-representation learning, hyperparameter optimization, and data hyper-cleaning for text classification tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm.

Bayesian filtering approximates the true underlying behavior of a time-varying system by inverting an explicit generative model to convert noisy measurements into state estimates. This process typically requires either storage, inversion, and multiplication of large matrices or Monte Carlo estimation, neither of which are practical in high-dimensional state spaces such as the weight spaces of artificial neural networks. Here, we frame the standard Bayesian filtering problem as optimization over a time-varying objective. Instead of maintaining matrices for the filtering equations or simulating particles, we specify an optimizer that defines the Bayesian filter implicitly. In the linear-Gaussian setting, we show that every Kalman filter has an equivalent formulation using K steps of gradient descent. In the nonlinear setting, our experiments demonstrate that our framework results in filters that are effective, robust, and scalable to high-dimensional systems, comparing well against the standard toolbox of Bayesian filtering solutions. We suggest that it is easier to fine-tune an optimizer than it is to specify the correct filtering equations, making our framework an attractive option for high-dimensional filtering problems.

Advancements in 3D Gaussian Splatting have significantly accelerated 3D reconstruction and generation. However, it may require a large number of Gaussians, which creates a substantial memory footprint. This paper introduces GES (Generalized Exponential Splatting), a novel representation that employs Generalized Exponential Function (GEF) to model 3D scenes, requiring far fewer particles to represent a scene and thus significantly outperforming Gaussian Splatting methods in efficiency with a plug-and-play replacement ability for Gaussian-based utilities. GES is validated theoretically and empirically in both principled 1D setup and realistic 3D scenes. It is shown to represent signals with sharp edges more accurately, which are typically challenging for Gaussians due to their inherent low-pass characteristics. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that GEF outperforms Gaussians in fitting natural-occurring signals (e.g. squares, triangles, and parabolic signals), thereby reducing the need for extensive splitting operations that increase the memory footprint of Gaussian Splatting. With the aid of a frequency-modulated loss, GES achieves competitive performance in novel-view synthesis benchmarks while requiring less than half the memory storage of Gaussian Splatting and increasing the rendering speed by up to 39%. The code is available on the project website https://abdullahamdi.com/ges .

The kernel thinning (KT) algorithm of Dwivedi and Mackey (2021) compresses a probability distribution more effectively than independent sampling by targeting a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and leveraging a less smooth square-root kernel. Here we provide four improvements. First, we show that KT applied directly to the target RKHS yields tighter, dimension-free guarantees for any kernel, any distribution, and any fixed function in the RKHS. Second, we show that, for analytic kernels like Gaussian, inverse multiquadric, and sinc, target KT admits maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) guarantees comparable to or better than those of square-root KT without making explicit use of a square-root kernel. Third, we prove that KT with a fractional power kernel yields better-than-Monte-Carlo MMD guarantees for non-smooth kernels, like Laplace and Mat\'ern, that do not have square-roots. Fourth, we establish that KT applied to a sum of the target and power kernels (a procedure we call KT+) simultaneously inherits the improved MMD guarantees of power KT and the tighter individual function guarantees of target KT. In our experiments with target KT and KT+, we witness significant improvements in integration error even in 100 dimensions and when compressing challenging differential equation posteriors.

This paper focuses on the problem of constrained stochastic optimization. A zeroth order Frank-Wolfe algorithm is proposed, which in addition to the projection-free nature of the vanilla Frank-Wolfe algorithm makes it gradient free. Under convexity and smoothness assumption, we show that the proposed algorithm converges to the optimal objective function at a rate Oleft(1/T^{1/3}right), where T denotes the iteration count. In particular, the primal sub-optimality gap is shown to have a dimension dependence of Oleft(d^{1/3}right), which is the best known dimension dependence among all zeroth order optimization algorithms with one directional derivative per iteration. For non-convex functions, we obtain the Frank-Wolfe gap to be Oleft(d^{1/3}T^{-1/4}right). Experiments on black-box optimization setups demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm.

We study nonparametric density estimation in non-stationary drift settings. Given a sequence of independent samples taken from a distribution that gradually changes in time, the goal is to compute the best estimate for the current distribution. We prove tight minimax risk bounds for both discrete and continuous smooth densities, where the minimum is over all possible estimates and the maximum is over all possible distributions that satisfy the drift constraints. Our technique handles a broad class of drift models, and generalizes previous results on agnostic learning under drift.

In recent years, multiple notions of algorithmic fairness have arisen. One such notion is individual fairness (IF), which requires that individuals who are similar receive similar treatment. In parallel, matrix estimation (ME) has emerged as a natural paradigm for handling noisy data with missing values. In this work, we connect the two concepts. We show that pre-processing data using ME can improve an algorithm's IF without sacrificing performance. Specifically, we show that using a popular ME method known as singular value thresholding (SVT) to pre-process the data provides a strong IF guarantee under appropriate conditions. We then show that, under analogous conditions, SVT pre-processing also yields estimates that are consistent and approximately minimax optimal. As such, the ME pre-processing step does not, under the stated conditions, increase the prediction error of the base algorithm, i.e., does not impose a fairness-performance trade-off. We verify these results on synthetic and real data.

The asymptotically precise estimation of the generalization of kernel methods has recently received attention due to the parallels between neural networks and their associated kernels. However, prior works derive such estimates for training by kernel ridge regression (KRR), whereas neural networks are typically trained with gradient descent (GD). In the present work, we consider the training of kernels with a family of spectral algorithms specified by profile h(lambda), and including KRR and GD as special cases. Then, we derive the generalization error as a functional of learning profile h(lambda) for two data models: high-dimensional Gaussian and low-dimensional translation-invariant model. Under power-law assumptions on the spectrum of the kernel and target, we use our framework to (i) give full loss asymptotics for both noisy and noiseless observations (ii) show that the loss localizes on certain spectral scales, giving a new perspective on the KRR saturation phenomenon (iii) conjecture, and demonstrate for the considered data models, the universality of the loss w.r.t. non-spectral details of the problem, but only in case of noisy observation.

We study the problem of constrained efficient global optimization, where both the objective and constraints are expensive black-box functions that can be learned with Gaussian processes. We propose CONFIG (CONstrained efFIcient Global Optimization), a simple and effective algorithm to solve it. Under certain regularity assumptions, we show that our algorithm enjoys the same cumulative regret bound as that in the unconstrained case and similar cumulative constraint violation upper bounds. For commonly used Matern and Squared Exponential kernels, our bounds are sublinear and allow us to derive a convergence rate to the optimal solution of the original constrained problem. In addition, our method naturally provides a scheme to declare infeasibility when the original black-box optimization problem is infeasible. Numerical experiments on sampled instances from the Gaussian process, artificial numerical problems, and a black-box building controller tuning problem all demonstrate the competitive performance of our algorithm. Compared to the other state-of-the-art methods, our algorithm significantly improves the theoretical guarantees, while achieving competitive empirical performance.

We study the problem of approximating stationary points of Lipschitz and smooth functions under (varepsilon,delta)-differential privacy (DP) in both the finite-sum and stochastic settings. A point w is called an alpha-stationary point of a function F:R^drightarrowR if |nabla F(w)|leq alpha. We provide a new efficient algorithm that finds an Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3}big)-stationary point in the finite-sum setting, where n is the number of samples. This improves on the previous best rate of Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big). We also give a new construction that improves over the existing rates in the stochastic optimization setting, where the goal is to find approximate stationary points of the population risk. Our construction finds a Obig(1{n^{1/3}} + big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big)-stationary point of the population risk in time linear in n. Furthermore, under the additional assumption of convexity, we completely characterize the sample complexity of finding stationary points of the population risk (up to polylog factors) and show that the optimal rate on population stationarity is tilde Thetabig(1{n}+sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big). Finally, we show that our methods can be used to provide dimension-independent rates of Obig(1{n}+minbig(big[sqrt{rank}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3},1{(nvarepsilon)^{2/5}}big)big) on population stationarity for Generalized Linear Models (GLM), where rank is the rank of the design matrix, which improves upon the previous best known rate.

Stochastically Extended Adversarial (SEA) model is introduced by Sachs et al. [2022] as an interpolation between stochastic and adversarial online convex optimization. Under the smoothness condition, they demonstrate that the expected regret of optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) depends on the cumulative stochastic variance sigma_{1:T}^2 and the cumulative adversarial variation Sigma_{1:T}^2 for convex functions. They also provide a slightly weaker bound based on the maximal stochastic variance sigma_{max}^2 and the maximal adversarial variation Sigma_{max}^2 for strongly convex functions. Inspired by their work, we investigate the theoretical guarantees of optimistic online mirror descent (OMD) for the SEA model. For convex and smooth functions, we obtain the same O(sigma_{1:T^2}+Sigma_{1:T^2}) regret bound, without the convexity requirement of individual functions. For strongly convex and smooth functions, we establish an O(min{log (sigma_{1:T}^2+Sigma_{1:T}^2), (sigma_{max}^2 + Sigma_{max}^2) log T}) bound, better than their O((sigma_{max}^2 + Sigma_{max}^2) log T) bound. For exp-concave and smooth functions, we achieve a new O(dlog(sigma_{1:T}^2+Sigma_{1:T}^2)) bound. Owing to the OMD framework, we can further extend our result to obtain dynamic regret guarantees, which are more favorable in non-stationary online scenarios. The attained results allow us to recover excess risk bounds of the stochastic setting and regret bounds of the adversarial setting, and derive new guarantees for many intermediate scenarios.

Partial differential equations (PDEs) are important tools to model physical systems, and including them into machine learning models is an important way of incorporating physical knowledge. Given any system of linear PDEs with constant coefficients, we propose a family of Gaussian process (GP) priors, which we call EPGP, such that all realizations are exact solutions of this system. We apply the Ehrenpreis-Palamodov fundamental principle, which works like a non-linear Fourier transform, to construct GP kernels mirroring standard spectral methods for GPs. Our approach can infer probable solutions of linear PDE systems from any data such as noisy measurements, or pointwise defined initial and boundary conditions. Constructing EPGP-priors is algorithmic, generally applicable, and comes with a sparse version (S-EPGP) that learns the relevant spectral frequencies and works better for big data sets. We demonstrate our approach on three families of systems of PDE, the heat equation, wave equation, and Maxwell's equations, where we improve upon the state of the art in computation time and precision, in some experiments by several orders of magnitude.

In this paper, we find a sample complexity bound for learning a simplex from noisy samples. Assume a dataset of size n is given which includes i.i.d. samples drawn from a uniform distribution over an unknown simplex in R^K, where samples are assumed to be corrupted by a multi-variate additive Gaussian noise of an arbitrary magnitude. We prove the existence of an algorithm that with high probability outputs a simplex having a ell_2 distance of at most varepsilon from the true simplex (for any varepsilon>0). Also, we theoretically show that in order to achieve this bound, it is sufficient to have ngeleft(K^2/varepsilon^2right)e^{Omegaleft(K/SNR^2right)} samples, where SNR stands for the signal-to-noise ratio. This result solves an important open problem and shows as long as SNRgeOmegaleft(K^{1/2}right), the sample complexity of the noisy regime has the same order to that of the noiseless case. Our proofs are a combination of the so-called sample compression technique in ashtiani2018nearly, mathematical tools from high-dimensional geometry, and Fourier analysis. In particular, we have proposed a general Fourier-based technique for recovery of a more general class of distribution families from additive Gaussian noise, which can be further used in a variety of other related problems.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works disagree on whether specialized methods grounded in dynamical systems theory, such as reservoir computers or neural ordinary differential equations, outperform general-purpose large-scale learning methods such as transformers or recurrent neural networks. These prior studies perform comparisons on few individually-chosen chaotic systems, thereby precluding robust quantification of how statistical modeling choices and dynamical invariants of different chaotic systems jointly determine empirical predictability. Here, we perform the largest to-date comparative study of forecasting methods on the classical problem of forecasting chaos: we benchmark 24 state-of-the-art forecasting methods on a crowdsourced database of 135 low-dimensional systems with 17 forecast metrics. We find that large-scale, domain-agnostic forecasting methods consistently produce predictions that remain accurate up to two dozen Lyapunov times, thereby accessing a new long-horizon forecasting regime well beyond classical methods. We find that, in this regime, accuracy decorrelates with classical invariant measures of predictability like the Lyapunov exponent. However, in data-limited settings outside the long-horizon regime, we find that physics-based hybrid methods retain a comparative advantage due to their strong inductive biases.

Generalized self-concordance is a key property present in the objective function of many important learning problems. We establish the convergence rate of a simple Frank-Wolfe variant that uses the open-loop step size strategy gamma_t = 2/(t+2), obtaining a O(1/t) convergence rate for this class of functions in terms of primal gap and Frank-Wolfe gap, where t is the iteration count. This avoids the use of second-order information or the need to estimate local smoothness parameters of previous work. We also show improved convergence rates for various common cases, e.g., when the feasible region under consideration is uniformly convex or polyhedral.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are popular nonparametric statistical models for learning unknown functions and quantifying the spatiotemporal uncertainty in data. Recent works have extended GPs to model scalar and vector quantities distributed over non-Euclidean domains, including smooth manifolds appearing in numerous fields such as computer vision, dynamical systems, and neuroscience. However, these approaches assume that the manifold underlying the data is known, limiting their practical utility. We introduce RVGP, a generalisation of GPs for learning vector signals over latent Riemannian manifolds. Our method uses positional encoding with eigenfunctions of the connection Laplacian, associated with the tangent bundle, readily derived from common graph-based approximation of data. We demonstrate that RVGP possesses global regularity over the manifold, which allows it to super-resolve and inpaint vector fields while preserving singularities. Furthermore, we use RVGP to reconstruct high-density neural dynamics derived from low-density EEG recordings in healthy individuals and Alzheimer's patients. We show that vector field singularities are important disease markers and that their reconstruction leads to a comparable classification accuracy of disease states to high-density recordings. Thus, our method overcomes a significant practical limitation in experimental and clinical applications.

Variational inference is becoming more and more popular for approximating intractable posterior distributions in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. Meanwhile, a few recent works have provided theoretical justification and new insights on deep neural networks for estimating smooth functions in usual settings such as nonparametric regression. In this paper, we show that variational inference for sparse deep learning retains the same generalization properties than exact Bayesian inference. In particular, we highlight the connection between estimation and approximation theories via the classical bias-variance trade-off and show that it leads to near-minimax rates of convergence for H\"older smooth functions. Additionally, we show that the model selection framework over the neural network architecture via ELBO maximization does not overfit and adaptively achieves the optimal rate of convergence.

We present a new algorithm to optimize distributions defined implicitly by parameterized stochastic diffusions. Doing so allows us to modify the outcome distribution of sampling processes by optimizing over their parameters. We introduce a general framework for first-order optimization of these processes, that performs jointly, in a single loop, optimization and sampling steps. This approach is inspired by recent advances in bilevel optimization and automatic implicit differentiation, leveraging the point of view of sampling as optimization over the space of probability distributions. We provide theoretical guarantees on the performance of our method, as well as experimental results demonstrating its effectiveness in real-world settings.

Randomized Smoothing (RS) has been proven a promising method for endowing an arbitrary image classifier with certified robustness. However, the substantial uncertainty inherent in the high-dimensional isotropic Gaussian noise imposes the curse of dimensionality on RS. Specifically, the upper bound of {ell_2} certified robustness radius provided by RS exhibits a diminishing trend with the expansion of the input dimension d, proportionally decreasing at a rate of 1/d. This paper explores the feasibility of providing {ell_2} certified robustness for high-dimensional input through the utilization of dual smoothing in the lower-dimensional space. The proposed Dual Randomized Smoothing (DRS) down-samples the input image into two sub-images and smooths the two sub-images in lower dimensions. Theoretically, we prove that DRS guarantees a tight {ell_2} certified robustness radius for the original input and reveal that DRS attains a superior upper bound on the {ell_2} robustness radius, which decreases proportionally at a rate of (1/sqrt m + 1/sqrt n ) with m+n=d. Extensive experiments demonstrate the generalizability and effectiveness of DRS, which exhibits a notable capability to integrate with established methodologies, yielding substantial improvements in both accuracy and {ell_2} certified robustness baselines of RS on the CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/xiasong0501/DRS.

We first propose a decentralized proximal stochastic gradient tracking method (DProxSGT) for nonconvex stochastic composite problems, with data heterogeneously distributed on multiple workers in a decentralized connected network. To save communication cost, we then extend DProxSGT to a compressed method by compressing the communicated information. Both methods need only O(1) samples per worker for each proximal update, which is important to achieve good generalization performance on training deep neural networks. With a smoothness condition on the expected loss function (but not on each sample function), the proposed methods can achieve an optimal sample complexity result to produce a near-stationary point. Numerical experiments on training neural networks demonstrate the significantly better generalization performance of our methods over large-batch training methods and momentum variance-reduction methods and also, the ability of handling heterogeneous data by the gradient tracking scheme.

Invariance and equivariance to geometrical transformations have proven to be very useful inductive biases when training (convolutional) neural network models, especially in the low-data regime. Much work has focused on the case where the symmetry group employed is compact or abelian, or both. Recent work has explored enlarging the class of transformations used to the case of Lie groups, principally through the use of their Lie algebra, as well as the group exponential and logarithm maps. The applicability of such methods to larger transformation groups is limited by the fact that depending on the group of interest G, the exponential map may not be surjective. Further limitations are encountered when G is neither compact nor abelian. Using the structure and geometry of Lie groups and their homogeneous spaces, we present a framework by which it is possible to work with such groups primarily focusing on the Lie groups G = GL^{+}(n, R) and G = SL(n, R), as well as their representation as affine transformations R^{n} rtimes G. Invariant integration as well as a global parametrization is realized by decomposing the `larger` groups into subgroups and submanifolds which can be handled individually. Under this framework, we show how convolution kernels can be parametrized to build models equivariant with respect to affine transformations. We evaluate the robustness and out-of-distribution generalisation capability of our model on the standard affine-invariant benchmark classification task, where we outperform all previous equivariant models as well as all Capsule Network proposals.

We consider the problem of linear estimation, and establish an extension of the Gauss-Markov theorem, in which the bias operator is allowed to be non-zero but bounded with respect to a matrix norm of Schatten type. We derive simple and explicit formulas for the optimal estimator in the cases of Nuclear and Spectral norms (with the Frobenius case recovering ridge regression). Additionally, we analytically derive the generalization error in multiple random matrix ensembles, and compare with Ridge regression. Finally, we conduct an extensive simulation study, in which we show that the cross-validated Nuclear and Spectral regressors can outperform Ridge in several circumstances.

Diffusion models are generative models that have recently demonstrated impressive performances in terms of sampling quality and density estimation in high dimensions. They rely on a forward continuous diffusion process and a backward continuous denoising process, which can be described by a time-dependent vector field and is used as a generative model. In the original formulation of the diffusion model, this vector field is assumed to be the score function (i.e. it is the gradient of the log-probability at a given time in the diffusion process). Curiously, on the practical side, most studies on diffusion models implement this vector field as a neural network function and do not constrain it be the gradient of some energy function (that is, most studies do not constrain the vector field to be conservative). Even though some studies investigated empirically whether such a constraint will lead to a performance gain, they lead to contradicting results and failed to provide analytical results. Here, we provide three analytical results regarding the extent of the modeling freedom of this vector field. {Firstly, we propose a novel decomposition of vector fields into a conservative component and an orthogonal component which satisfies a given (gauge) freedom. Secondly, from this orthogonal decomposition, we show that exact density estimation and exact sampling is achieved when the conservative component is exactly equals to the true score and therefore conservativity is neither necessary nor sufficient to obtain exact density estimation and exact sampling. Finally, we show that when it comes to inferring local information of the data manifold, constraining the vector field to be conservative is desirable.

When solving inverse problems, it is increasingly popular to use pre-trained diffusion models as plug-and-play priors. This framework can accommodate different forward models without re-training while preserving the generative capability of diffusion models. Despite their success in many imaging inverse problems, most existing methods rely on privileged information such as derivative, pseudo-inverse, or full knowledge about the forward model. This reliance poses a substantial limitation that restricts their use in a wide range of problems where such information is unavailable, such as in many scientific applications. To address this issue, we propose Ensemble Kalman Diffusion Guidance (EnKG) for diffusion models, a derivative-free approach that can solve inverse problems by only accessing forward model evaluations and a pre-trained diffusion model prior. We study the empirical effectiveness of our method across various inverse problems, including scientific settings such as inferring fluid flows and astronomical objects, which are highly non-linear inverse problems that often only permit black-box access to the forward model.

This paper investigates the global convergence of stepsized Newton methods for convex functions. We propose several simple stepsize schedules with fast global convergence guarantees, up to O (k^{-3}), nearly matching lower complexity bounds Omega (k^{-3.5}) of second-order methods. For cases with multiple plausible smoothness parameterizations or an unknown smoothness constant, we introduce a stepsize backtracking procedure that ensures convergence as if the optimal smoothness parameters were known.

We study Stochastic Gradient Descent with AdaGrad stepsizes: a popular adaptive (self-tuning) method for first-order stochastic optimization. Despite being well studied, existing analyses of this method suffer from various shortcomings: they either assume some knowledge of the problem parameters, impose strong global Lipschitz conditions, or fail to give bounds that hold with high probability. We provide a comprehensive analysis of this basic method without any of these limitations, in both the convex and non-convex (smooth) cases, that additionally supports a general ``affine variance'' noise model and provides sharp rates of convergence in both the low-noise and high-noise~regimes.

Variational inference (VI) seeks to approximate a target distribution pi by an element of a tractable family of distributions. Of key interest in statistics and machine learning is Gaussian VI, which approximates pi by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to pi over the space of Gaussians. In this work, we develop the (Stochastic) Forward-Backward Gaussian Variational Inference (FB-GVI) algorithm to solve Gaussian VI. Our approach exploits the composite structure of the KL divergence, which can be written as the sum of a smooth term (the potential) and a non-smooth term (the entropy) over the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) space of Gaussians endowed with the Wasserstein distance. For our proposed algorithm, we obtain state-of-the-art convergence guarantees when pi is log-smooth and log-concave, as well as the first convergence guarantees to first-order stationary solutions when pi is only log-smooth.

We propose a penalized nonparametric approach to estimating the quantile regression process (QRP) in a nonseparable model using rectifier quadratic unit (ReQU) activated deep neural networks and introduce a novel penalty function to enforce non-crossing of quantile regression curves. We establish the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for the estimated QRP and derive the mean integrated squared error for the estimated QRP under mild smoothness and regularity conditions. To establish these non-asymptotic risk and estimation error bounds, we also develop a new error bound for approximating C^s smooth functions with s >0 and their derivatives using ReQU activated neural networks. This is a new approximation result for ReQU networks and is of independent interest and may be useful in other problems. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with or outperforms two existing methods, including methods using reproducing kernels and random forests, for nonparametric quantile regression.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

Few neural architectures lend themselves to provable learning with gradient based methods. One popular model is the single-index model, in which labels are produced by composing an unknown linear projection with a possibly unknown scalar link function. Learning this model with SGD is relatively well-understood, whereby the so-called information exponent of the link function governs a polynomial sample complexity rate. However, extending this analysis to deeper or more complicated architectures remains challenging. In this work, we consider single index learning in the setting of symmetric neural networks. Under analytic assumptions on the activation and maximum degree assumptions on the link function, we prove that gradient flow recovers the hidden planted direction, represented as a finitely supported vector in the feature space of power sum polynomials. We characterize a notion of information exponent adapted to our setting that controls the efficiency of learning.

Because diffusion models have shown impressive performances in a number of tasks, such as image synthesis, there is a trend in recent works to prove (with certain assumptions) that these models have strong approximation capabilities. In this paper, we show that current diffusion models actually have an expressive bottleneck in backward denoising and some assumption made by existing theoretical guarantees is too strong. Based on this finding, we prove that diffusion models have unbounded errors in both local and global denoising. In light of our theoretical studies, we introduce soft mixture denoising (SMD), an expressive and efficient model for backward denoising. SMD not only permits diffusion models to well approximate any Gaussian mixture distributions in theory, but also is simple and efficient for implementation. Our experiments on multiple image datasets show that SMD significantly improves different types of diffusion models (e.g., DDPM), espeically in the situation of few backward iterations.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

Denoising is intuitively related to projection. Indeed, under the manifold hypothesis, adding random noise is approximately equivalent to orthogonal perturbation. Hence, learning to denoise is approximately learning to project. In this paper, we use this observation to reinterpret denoising diffusion models as approximate gradient descent applied to the Euclidean distance function. We then provide straight-forward convergence analysis of the DDIM sampler under simple assumptions on the projection-error of the denoiser. Finally, we propose a new sampler based on two simple modifications to DDIM using insights from our theoretical results. In as few as 5-10 function evaluations, our sampler achieves state-of-the-art FID scores on pretrained CIFAR-10 and CelebA models and can generate high quality samples on latent diffusion models.

Self-predictive unsupervised learning methods such as BYOL or SimSiam have shown impressive results, and counter-intuitively, do not collapse to trivial representations. In this work, we aim at exploring the simplest possible mathematical arguments towards explaining the underlying mechanisms behind self-predictive unsupervised learning. We start with the observation that those methods crucially rely on the presence of a predictor network (and stop-gradient). With simple linear algebra, we show that when using a linear predictor, the optimal predictor is close to an orthogonal projection, and propose a general framework based on orthonormalization that enables to interpret and give intuition on why BYOL works. In addition, this framework demonstrates the crucial role of the exponential moving average and stop-gradient operator in BYOL as an efficient orthonormalization mechanism. We use these insights to propose four new closed-form predictor variants of BYOL to support our analysis. Our closed-form predictors outperform standard linear trainable predictor BYOL at 100 and 300 epochs (top-1 linear accuracy on ImageNet).

We consider the general class of time-homogeneous stochastic dynamical systems, both discrete and continuous, and study the problem of learning a representation of the state that faithfully captures its dynamics. This is instrumental to learning the transfer operator or the generator of the system, which in turn can be used for numerous tasks, such as forecasting and interpreting the system dynamics. We show that the search for a good representation can be cast as an optimization problem over neural networks. Our approach is supported by recent results in statistical learning theory, highlighting the role of approximation error and metric distortion in the learning problem. The objective function we propose is associated with projection operators from the representation space to the data space, overcomes metric distortion, and can be empirically estimated from data. In the discrete-time setting, we further derive a relaxed objective function that is differentiable and numerically well-conditioned. We compare our method against state-of-the-art approaches on different datasets, showing better performance across the board.

We study the robust interpolation problem of arbitrary data distributions supported on a bounded space and propose a two-fold law of robustness. Robust interpolation refers to the problem of interpolating n noisy training data points in R^d by a Lipschitz function. Although this problem has been well understood when the samples are drawn from an isoperimetry distribution, much remains unknown concerning its performance under generic or even the worst-case distributions. We prove a Lipschitzness lower bound Omega(n/p) of the interpolating neural network with p parameters on arbitrary data distributions. With this result, we validate the law of robustness conjecture in prior work by Bubeck, Li, and Nagaraj on two-layer neural networks with polynomial weights. We then extend our result to arbitrary interpolating approximators and prove a Lipschitzness lower bound Omega(n^{1/d}) for robust interpolation. Our results demonstrate a two-fold law of robustness: i) we show the potential benefit of overparametrization for smooth data interpolation when n=poly(d), and ii) we disprove the potential existence of an O(1)-Lipschitz robust interpolating function when n=exp(omega(d)).

Most models in machine learning contain at least one hyperparameter to control for model complexity. Choosing an appropriate set of hyperparameters is both crucial in terms of model accuracy and computationally challenging. In this work we propose an algorithm for the optimization of continuous hyperparameters using inexact gradient information. An advantage of this method is that hyperparameters can be updated before model parameters have fully converged. We also give sufficient conditions for the global convergence of this method, based on regularity conditions of the involved functions and summability of errors. Finally, we validate the empirical performance of this method on the estimation of regularization constants of L2-regularized logistic regression and kernel Ridge regression. Empirical benchmarks indicate that our approach is highly competitive with respect to state of the art methods.

Optimizing neural networks with loss that contain high-dimensional and high-order differential operators is expensive to evaluate with back-propagation due to O(d^{k}) scaling of the derivative tensor size and the O(2^{k-1}L) scaling in the computation graph, where d is the dimension of the domain, L is the number of ops in the forward computation graph, and k is the derivative order. In previous works, the polynomial scaling in d was addressed by amortizing the computation over the optimization process via randomization. Separately, the exponential scaling in k for univariate functions (d=1) was addressed with high-order auto-differentiation (AD). In this work, we show how to efficiently perform arbitrary contraction of the derivative tensor of arbitrary order for multivariate functions, by properly constructing the input tangents to univariate high-order AD, which can be used to efficiently randomize any differential operator. When applied to Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), our method provides >1000times speed-up and >30times memory reduction over randomization with first-order AD, and we can now solve 1-million-dimensional PDEs in 8 minutes on a single NVIDIA A100 GPU. This work opens the possibility of using high-order differential operators in large-scale problems.

Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models have shown an impressive generation quality, although their long sampling chain leads to high computational costs. In this paper, we observe that a long sampling chain also leads to an error accumulation phenomenon, which is similar to the exposure bias problem in autoregressive text generation. Specifically, we note that there is a discrepancy between training and testing, since the former is conditioned on the ground truth samples, while the latter is conditioned on the previously generated results. To alleviate this problem, we propose a very simple but effective training regularization, consisting in perturbing the ground truth samples to simulate the inference time prediction errors. We empirically show that, without affecting the recall and precision, the proposed input perturbation leads to a significant improvement in the sample quality while reducing both the training and the inference times. For instance, on CelebA 64times64, we achieve a new state-of-the-art FID score of 1.27, while saving 37.5% of the training time. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/forever208/DDPM-IP

MDPs with low-rank transitions -- that is, the transition matrix can be factored into the product of two matrices, left and right -- is a highly representative structure that enables tractable learning. The left matrix enables expressive function approximation for value-based learning and has been studied extensively. In this work, we instead investigate sample-efficient learning with density features, i.e., the right matrix, which induce powerful models for state-occupancy distributions. This setting not only sheds light on leveraging unsupervised learning in RL, but also enables plug-in solutions for convex RL. In the offline setting, we propose an algorithm for off-policy estimation of occupancies that can handle non-exploratory data. Using this as a subroutine, we further devise an online algorithm that constructs exploratory data distributions in a level-by-level manner. As a central technical challenge, the additive error of occupancy estimation is incompatible with the multiplicative definition of data coverage. In the absence of strong assumptions like reachability, this incompatibility easily leads to exponential error blow-up, which we overcome via novel technical tools. Our results also readily extend to the representation learning setting, when the density features are unknown and must be learned from an exponentially large candidate set.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of task-agnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).

In this paper, by introducing Generalized Bernstein condition, we propose the first Obig(sqrt{p}{nepsilon}big) high probability excess population risk bound for differentially private algorithms under the assumptions G-Lipschitz, L-smooth, and Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz condition, based on gradient perturbation method. If we replace the properties G-Lipschitz and L-smooth by alpha-H{\"o}lder smoothness (which can be used in non-smooth setting), the high probability bound comes to Obig(n^{-alpha{1+2alpha}}big) w.r.t n, which cannot achieve Oleft(1/nright) when alphain(0,1]. To solve this problem, we propose a variant of gradient perturbation method, max{1,g-Normalized Gradient Perturbation} (m-NGP). We further show that by normalization, the high probability excess population risk bound under assumptions alpha-H{\"o}lder smooth and Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz condition can achieve Obig(sqrt{p}{nepsilon}big), which is the first Oleft(1/nright) high probability excess population risk bound w.r.t n for differentially private algorithms under non-smooth conditions. Moreover, we evaluate the performance of the new proposed algorithm m-NGP, the experimental results show that m-NGP improves the performance of the differentially private model over real datasets. It demonstrates that m-NGP improves the utility bound and the accuracy of the DP model on real datasets simultaneously.

We introduce infty-Diff, a generative diffusion model which directly operates on infinite resolution data. By randomly sampling subsets of coordinates during training and learning to denoise the content at those coordinates, a continuous function is learned that allows sampling at arbitrary resolutions. In contrast to other recent infinite resolution generative models, our approach operates directly on the raw data, not requiring latent vector compression for context, using hypernetworks, nor relying on discrete components. As such, our approach achieves significantly higher sample quality, as evidenced by lower FID scores, as well as being able to effectively scale to higher resolutions than the training data while retaining detail.

Typical generative diffusion models rely on a Gaussian diffusion process for training the backward transformations, which can then be used to generate samples from Gaussian noise. However, real world data often takes place in discrete-state spaces, including many scientific applications. Here, we develop a theoretical formulation for arbitrary discrete-state Markov processes in the forward diffusion process using exact (as opposed to variational) analysis. We relate the theory to the existing continuous-state Gaussian diffusion as well as other approaches to discrete diffusion, and identify the corresponding reverse-time stochastic process and score function in the continuous-time setting, and the reverse-time mapping in the discrete-time setting. As an example of this framework, we introduce ``Blackout Diffusion'', which learns to produce samples from an empty image instead of from noise. Numerical experiments on the CIFAR-10, Binarized MNIST, and CelebA datasets confirm the feasibility of our approach. Generalizing from specific (Gaussian) forward processes to discrete-state processes without a variational approximation sheds light on how to interpret diffusion models, which we discuss.

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting, where generating stable and accurate rollout forecasts remains challenging, Our method, DYffusion, leverages the temporal dynamics in the data, directly coupling it with the diffusion steps in the model. We train a stochastic, time-conditioned interpolator and a forecaster network that mimic the forward and reverse processes of standard diffusion models, respectively. DYffusion naturally facilitates multi-step and long-range forecasting, allowing for highly flexible, continuous-time sampling trajectories and the ability to trade-off performance with accelerated sampling at inference time. In addition, the dynamics-informed diffusion process in DYffusion imposes a strong inductive bias and significantly improves computational efficiency compared to traditional Gaussian noise-based diffusion models. Our approach performs competitively on probabilistic forecasting of complex dynamics in sea surface temperatures, Navier-Stokes flows, and spring mesh systems.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

The trade-off between regret and computational cost is a fundamental problem for online kernel regression, and previous algorithms worked on the trade-off can not keep optimal regret bounds at a sublinear computational complexity. In this paper, we propose two new algorithms, AOGD-ALD and NONS-ALD, which can keep nearly optimal regret bounds at a sublinear computational complexity, and give sufficient conditions under which our algorithms work. Both algorithms dynamically maintain a group of nearly orthogonal basis used to approximate the kernel mapping, and keep nearly optimal regret bounds by controlling the approximate error. The number of basis depends on the approximate error and the decay rate of eigenvalues of the kernel matrix. If the eigenvalues decay exponentially, then AOGD-ALD and NONS-ALD separately achieves a regret of O(L(f)) and O(d_{eff}(mu)T) at a computational complexity in O(ln^2{T}). If the eigenvalues decay polynomially with degree pgeq 1, then our algorithms keep the same regret bounds at a computational complexity in o(T) in the case of p>4 and pgeq 10, respectively. L(f) is the cumulative losses of f and d_{eff}(mu) is the effective dimension of the problem. The two regret bounds are nearly optimal and are not comparable.

Irregularly sampled time series data arise naturally in many application domains including biology, ecology, climate science, astronomy, and health. Such data represent fundamental challenges to many classical models from machine learning and statistics due to the presence of non-uniform intervals between observations. However, there has been significant progress within the machine learning community over the last decade on developing specialized models and architectures for learning from irregularly sampled univariate and multivariate time series data. In this survey, we first describe several axes along which approaches to learning from irregularly sampled time series differ including what data representations they are based on, what modeling primitives they leverage to deal with the fundamental problem of irregular sampling, and what inference tasks they are designed to perform. We then survey the recent literature organized primarily along the axis of modeling primitives. We describe approaches based on temporal discretization, interpolation, recurrence, attention and structural invariance. We discuss similarities and differences between approaches and highlight primary strengths and weaknesses.

To minimize the average of a set of log-convex functions, the stochastic Newton method iteratively updates its estimate using subsampled versions of the full objective's gradient and Hessian. We contextualize this optimization problem as sequential Bayesian inference on a latent state-space model with a discriminatively-specified observation process. Applying Bayesian filtering then yields a novel optimization algorithm that considers the entire history of gradients and Hessians when forming an update. We establish matrix-based conditions under which the effect of older observations diminishes over time, in a manner analogous to Polyak's heavy ball momentum. We illustrate various aspects of our approach with an example and review other relevant innovations for the stochastic Newton method.

This paper presents OLinear, a linear-based multivariate time series forecasting model that operates in an orthogonally transformed domain. Recent forecasting models typically adopt the temporal forecast (TF) paradigm, which directly encode and decode time series in the time domain. However, the entangled step-wise dependencies in series data can hinder the performance of TF. To address this, some forecasters conduct encoding and decoding in the transformed domain using fixed, dataset-independent bases (e.g., sine and cosine signals in the Fourier transform). In contrast, we utilize OrthoTrans, a data-adaptive transformation based on an orthogonal matrix that diagonalizes the series' temporal Pearson correlation matrix. This approach enables more effective encoding and decoding in the decorrelated feature domain and can serve as a plug-in module to enhance existing forecasters. To enhance the representation learning for multivariate time series, we introduce a customized linear layer, NormLin, which employs a normalized weight matrix to capture multivariate dependencies. Empirically, the NormLin module shows a surprising performance advantage over multi-head self-attention, while requiring nearly half the FLOPs. Extensive experiments on 24 benchmarks and 140 forecasting tasks demonstrate that OLinear consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Notably, as a plug-in replacement for self-attention, the NormLin module consistently enhances Transformer-based forecasters. The code and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/OLinear

Bayesian optimization (BO) has established itself as a leading strategy for efficiently optimizing expensive-to-evaluate functions. Existing BO methods mostly rely on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models and are not applicable to (doubly-stochastic) Gaussian Cox processes, where the observation process is modulated by a latent intensity function modeled as a GP. In this paper, we propose a novel maximum a posteriori inference of Gaussian Cox processes. It leverages the Laplace approximation and change of kernel technique to transform the problem into a new reproducing kernel Hilbert space, where it becomes more tractable computationally. It enables us to obtain both a functional posterior of the latent intensity function and the covariance of the posterior, thus extending existing works that often focus on specific link functions or estimating the posterior mean. Using the result, we propose a BO framework based on the Gaussian Cox process model and further develop a Nystr\"om approximation for efficient computation. Extensive evaluations on various synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvement over state-of-the-art inference solutions for Gaussian Cox processes, as well as effective BO with a wide range of acquisition functions designed through the underlying Gaussian Cox process model.

We consider the problem of estimating (diagonally dominant) M-matrices as precision matrices in Gaussian graphical models. These models exhibit intriguing properties, such as the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator with merely two observations for M-matrices lauritzen2019maximum,slawski2015estimation and even one observation for diagonally dominant M-matrices truell2021maximum. We propose an adaptive multiple-stage estimation method that refines the estimate by solving a weighted ell_1-regularized problem at each stage. Furthermore, we develop a unified framework based on the gradient projection method to solve the regularized problem, incorporating distinct projections to handle the constraints of M-matrices and diagonally dominant M-matrices. A theoretical analysis of the estimation error is provided. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in precision matrix estimation and graph edge identification, as evidenced by synthetic and financial time-series data sets.

Diffusion models for continuous data gained widespread adoption owing to their high quality generation and control mechanisms. However, controllable diffusion on discrete data faces challenges given that continuous guidance methods do not directly apply to discrete diffusion. Here, we provide a straightforward derivation of classifier-free and classifier-based guidance for discrete diffusion, as well as a new class of diffusion models that leverage uniform noise and that are more guidable because they can continuously edit their outputs. We improve the quality of these models with a novel continuous-time variational lower bound that yields state-of-the-art performance, especially in settings involving guidance or fast generation. Empirically, we demonstrate that our guidance mechanisms combined with uniform noise diffusion improve controllable generation relative to autoregressive and diffusion baselines on several discrete data domains, including genomic sequences, small molecule design, and discretized image generation.

One method for obtaining generalizable solutions to machine learning tasks when presented with diverse training environments is to find invariant representations of the data. These are representations of the covariates such that the best model on top of the representation is invariant across training environments. In the context of linear Structural Equation Models (SEMs), invariant representations might allow us to learn models with out-of-distribution guarantees, i.e., models that are robust to interventions in the SEM. To address the invariant representation problem in a {\em finite sample} setting, we consider the notion of epsilon-approximate invariance. We study the following question: If a representation is approximately invariant with respect to a given number of training interventions, will it continue to be approximately invariant on a larger collection of unseen SEMs? This larger collection of SEMs is generated through a parameterized family of interventions. Inspired by PAC learning, we obtain finite-sample out-of-distribution generalization guarantees for approximate invariance that holds probabilistically over a family of linear SEMs without faithfulness assumptions. Our results show bounds that do not scale in ambient dimension when intervention sites are restricted to lie in a constant size subset of in-degree bounded nodes. We also show how to extend our results to a linear indirect observation model that incorporates latent variables.

Denoising diffusion models are a powerful type of generative models used to capture complex distributions of real-world signals. However, their applicability is limited to scenarios where training samples are readily available, which is not always the case in real-world applications. For example, in inverse graphics, the goal is to generate samples from a distribution of 3D scenes that align with a given image, but ground-truth 3D scenes are unavailable and only 2D images are accessible. To address this limitation, we propose a novel class of denoising diffusion probabilistic models that learn to sample from distributions of signals that are never directly observed. Instead, these signals are measured indirectly through a known differentiable forward model, which produces partial observations of the unknown signal. Our approach involves integrating the forward model directly into the denoising process. This integration effectively connects the generative modeling of observations with the generative modeling of the underlying signals, allowing for end-to-end training of a conditional generative model over signals. During inference, our approach enables sampling from the distribution of underlying signals that are consistent with a given partial observation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three challenging computer vision tasks. For instance, in the context of inverse graphics, our model enables direct sampling from the distribution of 3D scenes that align with a single 2D input image.

In this work, we study first-order algorithms for solving Bilevel Optimization (BO) where the objective functions are smooth but possibly nonconvex in both levels and the variables are restricted to closed convex sets. As a first step, we study the landscape of BO through the lens of penalty methods, in which the upper- and lower-level objectives are combined in a weighted sum with penalty parameter sigma > 0. In particular, we establish a strong connection between the penalty function and the hyper-objective by explicitly characterizing the conditions under which the values and derivatives of the two must be O(sigma)-close. A by-product of our analysis is the explicit formula for the gradient of hyper-objective when the lower-level problem has multiple solutions under minimal conditions, which could be of independent interest. Next, viewing the penalty formulation as O(sigma)-approximation of the original BO, we propose first-order algorithms that find an epsilon-stationary solution by optimizing the penalty formulation with sigma = O(epsilon). When the perturbed lower-level problem uniformly satisfies the small-error proximal error-bound (EB) condition, we propose a first-order algorithm that converges to an epsilon-stationary point of the penalty function, using in total O(epsilon^{-3}) and O(epsilon^{-7}) accesses to first-order (stochastic) gradient oracles when the oracle is deterministic and oracles are noisy, respectively. Under an additional assumption on stochastic oracles, we show that the algorithm can be implemented in a fully {\it single-loop} manner, i.e., with O(1) samples per iteration, and achieves the improved oracle-complexity of O(epsilon^{-3}) and O(epsilon^{-5}), respectively.

We consider in this work quantities that can be obtained as limits of powers of parametrized matrices, for instance the inverse matrix or the logarithm of the determinant. Under the assumption of affine dependence in the parameters, we use the Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM) to derive an approximation for powers of these matrices, from which we derive a nonintrusive approximation for the aforementioned limits. We derive upper bounds of the error made by the obtained formula. Finally, numerical comparisons with classical intrusive and nonintrusive approximation techniques are provided: in the considered test-cases, our algorithm performs well compared to the nonintrusive ones.

We derive a minimalist but powerful deterministic denoising-diffusion model. While denoising diffusion has shown great success in many domains, its underlying theory remains largely inaccessible to non-expert users. Indeed, an understanding of graduate-level concepts such as Langevin dynamics or score matching appears to be required to grasp how it works. We propose an alternative approach that requires no more than undergrad calculus and probability. We consider two densities and observe what happens when random samples from these densities are blended (linearly interpolated). We show that iteratively blending and deblending samples produces random paths between the two densities that converge toward a deterministic mapping. This mapping can be evaluated with a neural network trained to deblend samples. We obtain a model that behaves like deterministic denoising diffusion: it iteratively maps samples from one density (e.g., Gaussian noise) to another (e.g., cat images). However, compared to the state-of-the-art alternative, our model is simpler to derive, simpler to implement, more numerically stable, achieves higher quality results in our experiments, and has interesting connections to computer graphics.

Denoising diffusion models have recently shown impressive results in generative tasks. By learning powerful priors from huge collections of training images, such models are able to gradually modify complete noise to a clean natural image via a sequence of small denoising steps, seemingly making them well-suited for single image denoising. However, effectively applying denoising diffusion models to removal of realistic noise is more challenging than it may seem, since their formulation is based on additive white Gaussian noise, unlike noise in real-world images. In this work, we present SVNR, a novel formulation of denoising diffusion that assumes a more realistic, spatially-variant noise model. SVNR enables using the noisy input image as the starting point for the denoising diffusion process, in addition to conditioning the process on it. To this end, we adapt the diffusion process to allow each pixel to have its own time embedding, and propose training and inference schemes that support spatially-varying time maps. Our formulation also accounts for the correlation that exists between the condition image and the samples along the modified diffusion process. In our experiments we demonstrate the advantages of our approach over a strong diffusion model baseline, as well as over a state-of-the-art single image denoising method.

We propose a method that achieves near-optimal rates for smooth stochastic convex optimization and requires essentially no prior knowledge of problem parameters. This improves on prior work which requires knowing at least the initial distance to optimality d0. Our method, U-DoG, combines UniXGrad (Kavis et al., 2019) and DoG (Ivgi et al., 2023) with novel iterate stabilization techniques. It requires only loose bounds on d0 and the noise magnitude, provides high probability guarantees under sub-Gaussian noise, and is also near-optimal in the non-smooth case. Our experiments show consistent, strong performance on convex problems and mixed results on neural network training.

Previous literature offers limited clues on how to learn a periodic function using modern neural networks. We start with a study of the extrapolation properties of neural networks; we prove and demonstrate experimentally that the standard activations functions, such as ReLU, tanh, sigmoid, along with their variants, all fail to learn to extrapolate simple periodic functions. We hypothesize that this is due to their lack of a "periodic" inductive bias. As a fix of this problem, we propose a new activation, namely, x + sin^2(x), which achieves the desired periodic inductive bias to learn a periodic function while maintaining a favorable optimization property of the ReLU-based activations. Experimentally, we apply the proposed method to temperature and financial data prediction.

It is widely believed that noise conditioning is indispensable for denoising diffusion models to work successfully. This work challenges this belief. Motivated by research on blind image denoising, we investigate a variety of denoising-based generative models in the absence of noise conditioning. To our surprise, most models exhibit graceful degradation, and in some cases, they even perform better without noise conditioning. We provide a theoretical analysis of the error caused by removing noise conditioning and demonstrate that our analysis aligns with empirical observations. We further introduce a noise-unconditional model that achieves a competitive FID of 2.23 on CIFAR-10, significantly narrowing the gap to leading noise-conditional models. We hope our findings will inspire the community to revisit the foundations and formulations of denoising generative models.

We study the task of agnostically learning halfspaces under the Gaussian distribution. Specifically, given labeled examples (x,y) from an unknown distribution on R^n times { pm 1}, whose marginal distribution on x is the standard Gaussian and the labels y can be arbitrary, the goal is to output a hypothesis with 0-1 loss OPT+epsilon, where OPT is the 0-1 loss of the best-fitting halfspace. We prove a near-optimal computational hardness result for this task, under the widely believed sub-exponential time hardness of the Learning with Errors (LWE) problem. Prior hardness results are either qualitatively suboptimal or apply to restricted families of algorithms. Our techniques extend to yield near-optimal lower bounds for related problems, including ReLU regression.

This paper develops a new mathematical-statistical approach to analyze a class of Flajolet-Martin algorithms (FMa), and provides analytical confidence intervals for the number F0 of distinct elements in a stream, based on Chernoff bounds. The class of FMa has reached a significant popularity in bigdata stream learning, and the attention of the literature has mainly been based on algorithmic aspects, basically complexity optimality, while the statistical analysis of these class of algorithms has been often faced heuristically. The analysis provided here shows deep connections with mathematical special functions and with extreme value theory. The latter connection may help in explaining heuristic considerations, while the first opens many numerical issues, faced at the end of the present paper. Finally, the algorithms are tested on an anonymized real data stream and MonteCarlo simulations are provided to support our analytical choice in this context.

The optimization of the latents and parameters of diffusion models with respect to some differentiable metric defined on the output of the model is a challenging and complex problem. The sampling for diffusion models is done by solving either the probability flow ODE or diffusion SDE wherein a neural network approximates the score function allowing a numerical ODE/SDE solver to be used. However, naive backpropagation techniques are memory intensive, requiring the storage of all intermediate states, and face additional complexity in handling the injected noise from the diffusion term of the diffusion SDE. We propose a novel family of bespoke ODE solvers to the continuous adjoint equations for diffusion models, which we call AdjointDEIS. We exploit the unique construction of diffusion SDEs to further simplify the formulation of the continuous adjoint equations using exponential integrators. Moreover, we provide convergence order guarantees for our bespoke solvers. Significantly, we show that continuous adjoint equations for diffusion SDEs actually simplify to a simple ODE. Lastly, we demonstrate the effectiveness of AdjointDEIS for guided generation with an adversarial attack in the form of the face morphing problem. Our code will be released on our project page https://zblasingame.github.io/AdjointDEIS/

The SIML (abbreviation of Separating Information Maximal Likelihood) method, has been introduced by N. Kunitomo and S. Sato and their collaborators to estimate the integrated volatility of high-frequency data that is assumed to be an It\^o process but with so-called microstructure noise. The SIML estimator turned out to share many properties with the estimator introduced by P. Malliavin and M.E. Mancino. The present paper establishes the consistency and the asymptotic normality under a general sampling scheme but without microstructure noise. Specifically, a fast convergence shown for Malliavin--Mancino estimator by E. Clement and A. Gloter is also established for the SIML estimator.

Diffusion-based generative models use stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and their equivalent ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to establish a smooth connection between a complex data distribution and a tractable prior distribution. In this paper, we identify several intriguing trajectory properties in the ODE-based sampling process of diffusion models. We characterize an implicit denoising trajectory and discuss its vital role in forming the coupled sampling trajectory with a strong shape regularity, regardless of the generated content. We also describe a dynamic programming-based scheme to make the time schedule in sampling better fit the underlying trajectory structure. This simple strategy requires minimal modification to any given ODE-based numerical solvers and incurs negligible computational cost, while delivering superior performance in image generation, especially in 5sim 10 function evaluations.

We propose a novel neural algorithm for the fundamental problem of computing the entropic optimal transport (EOT) plan between continuous probability distributions which are accessible by samples. Our algorithm is based on the saddle point reformulation of the dynamic version of EOT which is known as the Schr\"odinger Bridge problem. In contrast to the prior methods for large-scale EOT, our algorithm is end-to-end and consists of a single learning step, has fast inference procedure, and allows handling small values of the entropy regularization coefficient which is of particular importance in some applied problems. Empirically, we show the performance of the method on several large-scale EOT tasks. https://github.com/ngushchin/EntropicNeuralOptimalTransport

Black box optimisation of an unknown function from expensive and noisy evaluations is a ubiquitous problem in machine learning, academic research and industrial production. An abstraction of the problem can be formulated as a kernel based bandit problem (also known as Bayesian optimisation), where a learner aims at optimising a kernelized function through sequential noisy observations. The existing work predominantly assumes feedback is immediately available; an assumption which fails in many real world situations, including recommendation systems, clinical trials and hyperparameter tuning. We consider a kernel bandit problem under stochastically delayed feedback, and propose an algorithm with mathcal{O}(Gamma_k(T)T+E[tau]) regret, where T is the number of time steps, Gamma_k(T) is the maximum information gain of the kernel with T observations, and tau is the delay random variable. This represents a significant improvement over the state of the art regret bound of mathcal{O}(Gamma_k(T)T+E[tau]Gamma_k(T)) reported in Verma et al. (2022). In particular, for very non-smooth kernels, the information gain grows almost linearly in time, trivializing the existing results. We also validate our theoretical results with simulations.

At initialization, artificial neural networks (ANNs) are equivalent to Gaussian processes in the infinite-width limit, thus connecting them to kernel methods. We prove that the evolution of an ANN during training can also be described by a kernel: during gradient descent on the parameters of an ANN, the network function f_theta (which maps input vectors to output vectors) follows the kernel gradient of the functional cost (which is convex, in contrast to the parameter cost) w.r.t. a new kernel: the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK). This kernel is central to describe the generalization features of ANNs. While the NTK is random at initialization and varies during training, in the infinite-width limit it converges to an explicit limiting kernel and it stays constant during training. This makes it possible to study the training of ANNs in function space instead of parameter space. Convergence of the training can then be related to the positive-definiteness of the limiting NTK. We prove the positive-definiteness of the limiting NTK when the data is supported on the sphere and the non-linearity is non-polynomial. We then focus on the setting of least-squares regression and show that in the infinite-width limit, the network function f_theta follows a linear differential equation during training. The convergence is fastest along the largest kernel principal components of the input data with respect to the NTK, hence suggesting a theoretical motivation for early stopping. Finally we study the NTK numerically, observe its behavior for wide networks, and compare it to the infinite-width limit.

We present a new accelerated stochastic second-order method that is robust to both gradient and Hessian inexactness, which occurs typically in machine learning. We establish theoretical lower bounds and prove that our algorithm achieves optimal convergence in both gradient and Hessian inexactness in this key setting. We further introduce a tensor generalization for stochastic higher-order derivatives. When the oracles are non-stochastic, the proposed tensor algorithm matches the global convergence of Nesterov Accelerated Tensor method. Both algorithms allow for approximate solutions of their auxiliary subproblems with verifiable conditions on the accuracy of the solution.

The Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM) is a greedy procedure that constructs approximate representations of two-variable functions in separated form. In its classical presentation, the two variables play a non-symmetric role. In this work, we give an equivalent definition of the EIM approximation, in which the two variables play symmetric roles. Then, we give a proof for the existence of this approximation, and extend it up to the convergence of the EIM, and for any norm chosen to compute the error in the greedy step. Finally, we introduce a way to compute a separated representation in the case where the number of selected values is different for each variable. In the case of a physical field measured by sensors, this is useful to discard a broken sensor while keeping the information provided by the associated selected field.

Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) can generate high-quality samples such as image and audio samples. However, DDPMs require hundreds to thousands of iterations to produce final samples. Several prior works have successfully accelerated DDPMs through adjusting the variance schedule (e.g., Improved Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models) or the denoising equation (e.g., Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models (DDIMs)). However, these acceleration methods cannot maintain the quality of samples and even introduce new noise at a high speedup rate, which limit their practicability. To accelerate the inference process while keeping the sample quality, we provide a fresh perspective that DDPMs should be treated as solving differential equations on manifolds. Under such a perspective, we propose pseudo numerical methods for diffusion models (PNDMs). Specifically, we figure out how to solve differential equations on manifolds and show that DDIMs are simple cases of pseudo numerical methods. We change several classical numerical methods to corresponding pseudo numerical methods and find that the pseudo linear multi-step method is the best in most situations. According to our experiments, by directly using pre-trained models on Cifar10, CelebA and LSUN, PNDMs can generate higher quality synthetic images with only 50 steps compared with 1000-step DDIMs (20x speedup), significantly outperform DDIMs with 250 steps (by around 0.4 in FID) and have good generalization on different variance schedules. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/luping-liu/PNDM.

Error Feedback (EF) is a highly popular and immensely effective mechanism for fixing convergence issues which arise in distributed training methods (such as distributed GD or SGD) when these are enhanced with greedy communication compression techniques such as TopK. While EF was proposed almost a decade ago (Seide et al., 2014), and despite concentrated effort by the community to advance the theoretical understanding of this mechanism, there is still a lot to explore. In this work we study a modern form of error feedback called EF21 (Richtarik et al., 2021) which offers the currently best-known theoretical guarantees, under the weakest assumptions, and also works well in practice. In particular, while the theoretical communication complexity of EF21 depends on the quadratic mean of certain smoothness parameters, we improve this dependence to their arithmetic mean, which is always smaller, and can be substantially smaller, especially in heterogeneous data regimes. We take the reader on a journey of our discovery process. Starting with the idea of applying EF21 to an equivalent reformulation of the underlying problem which (unfortunately) requires (often impractical) machine cloning, we continue to the discovery of a new weighted version of EF21 which can (fortunately) be executed without any cloning, and finally circle back to an improved analysis of the original EF21 method. While this development applies to the simplest form of EF21, our approach naturally extends to more elaborate variants involving stochastic gradients and partial participation. Further, our technique improves the best-known theory of EF21 in the rare features regime (Richtarik et al., 2023). Finally, we validate our theoretical findings with suitable experiments.

Existing customization methods require access to multiple reference examples to align pre-trained diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) with user-provided concepts. This paper aims to address the challenge of DPM customization when the only available supervision is a differentiable metric defined on the generated contents. Since the sampling procedure of DPMs involves recursive calls to the denoising UNet, na\"ive gradient backpropagation requires storing the intermediate states of all iterations, resulting in extremely high memory consumption. To overcome this issue, we propose a novel method AdjointDPM, which first generates new samples from diffusion models by solving the corresponding probability-flow ODEs. It then uses the adjoint sensitivity method to backpropagate the gradients of the loss to the models' parameters (including conditioning signals, network weights, and initial noises) by solving another augmented ODE. To reduce numerical errors in both the forward generation and gradient backpropagation processes, we further reparameterize the probability-flow ODE and augmented ODE as simple non-stiff ODEs using exponential integration. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of AdjointDPM on three interesting tasks: converting visual effects into identification text embeddings, finetuning DPMs for specific types of stylization, and optimizing initial noise to generate adversarial samples for security auditing.

Label smoothing regularization (LSR) has a great success in training deep neural networks by stochastic algorithms such as stochastic gradient descent and its variants. However, the theoretical understanding of its power from the view of optimization is still rare. This study opens the door to a deep understanding of LSR by initiating the analysis. In this paper, we analyze the convergence behaviors of stochastic gradient descent with label smoothing regularization for solving non-convex problems and show that an appropriate LSR can help to speed up the convergence by reducing the variance. More interestingly, we proposed a simple yet effective strategy, namely Two-Stage LAbel smoothing algorithm (TSLA), that uses LSR in the early training epochs and drops it off in the later training epochs. We observe from the improved convergence result of TSLA that it benefits from LSR in the first stage and essentially converges faster in the second stage. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work for understanding the power of LSR via establishing convergence complexity of stochastic methods with LSR in non-convex optimization. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in comparison with baselines on training ResNet models over benchmark data sets.

Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.

Solving a linear system Ax=b is a fundamental scientific computing primitive for which numerous solvers and preconditioners have been developed. These come with parameters whose optimal values depend on the system being solved and are often impossible or too expensive to identify; thus in practice sub-optimal heuristics are used. We consider the common setting in which many related linear systems need to be solved, e.g. during a single numerical simulation. In this scenario, can we sequentially choose parameters that attain a near-optimal overall number of iterations, without extra matrix computations? We answer in the affirmative for Successive Over-Relaxation (SOR), a standard solver whose parameter omega has a strong impact on its runtime. For this method, we prove that a bandit online learning algorithm--using only the number of iterations as feedback--can select parameters for a sequence of instances such that the overall cost approaches that of the best fixed omega as the sequence length increases. Furthermore, when given additional structural information, we show that a contextual bandit method asymptotically achieves the performance of the instance-optimal policy, which selects the best omega for each instance. Our work provides the first learning-theoretic treatment of high-precision linear system solvers and the first end-to-end guarantees for data-driven scientific computing, demonstrating theoretically the potential to speed up numerical methods using well-understood learning algorithms.

We consider the optimization problem of the form min_{x in R^d} f(x) triangleq E_{xi} [F(x; xi)], where the component F(x;xi) is L-mean-squared Lipschitz but possibly nonconvex and nonsmooth. The recently proposed gradient-free method requires at most O( L^4 d^{3/2} epsilon^{-4} + Delta L^3 d^{3/2} delta^{-1} epsilon^{-4}) stochastic zeroth-order oracle complexity to find a (delta,epsilon)-Goldstein stationary point of objective function, where Delta = f(x_0) - inf_{x in R^d} f(x) and x_0 is the initial point of the algorithm. This paper proposes a more efficient algorithm using stochastic recursive gradient estimators, which improves the complexity to O(L^3 d^{3/2} epsilon^{-3}+ Delta L^2 d^{3/2} delta^{-1} epsilon^{-3}).

Recent work has shown how denoising and contractive autoencoders implicitly capture the structure of the data-generating density, in the case where the corruption noise is Gaussian, the reconstruction error is the squared error, and the data is continuous-valued. This has led to various proposals for sampling from this implicitly learned density function, using Langevin and Metropolis-Hastings MCMC. However, it remained unclear how to connect the training procedure of regularized auto-encoders to the implicit estimation of the underlying data-generating distribution when the data are discrete, or using other forms of corruption process and reconstruction errors. Another issue is the mathematical justification which is only valid in the limit of small corruption noise. We propose here a different attack on the problem, which deals with all these issues: arbitrary (but noisy enough) corruption, arbitrary reconstruction loss (seen as a log-likelihood), handling both discrete and continuous-valued variables, and removing the bias due to non-infinitesimal corruption noise (or non-infinitesimal contractive penalty).

We present AI-SARAH, a practical variant of SARAH. As a variant of SARAH, this algorithm employs the stochastic recursive gradient yet adjusts step-size based on local geometry. AI-SARAH implicitly computes step-size and efficiently estimates local Lipschitz smoothness of stochastic functions. It is fully adaptive, tune-free, straightforward to implement, and computationally efficient. We provide technical insight and intuitive illustrations on its design and convergence. We conduct extensive empirical analysis and demonstrate its strong performance compared with its classical counterparts and other state-of-the-art first-order methods in solving convex machine learning problems.

Recently, there has been extensive research interest in training deep networks to denoise images without clean reference. However, the representative approaches such as Noise2Noise, Noise2Void, Stein's unbiased risk estimator (SURE), etc. seem to differ from one another and it is difficult to find the coherent mathematical structure. To address this, here we present a novel approach, called Noise2Score, which reveals a missing link in order to unite these seemingly different approaches. Specifically, we show that image denoising problems without clean images can be addressed by finding the mode of the posterior distribution and that the Tweedie's formula offers an explicit solution through the score function (i.e. the gradient of log likelihood). Our method then uses the recent finding that the score function can be stably estimated from the noisy images using the amortized residual denoising autoencoder, the method of which is closely related to Noise2Noise or Nose2Void. Our Noise2Score approach is so universal that the same network training can be used to remove noises from images that are corrupted by any exponential family distributions and noise parameters. Using extensive experiments with Gaussian, Poisson, and Gamma noises, we show that Noise2Score significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art self-supervised denoising methods in the benchmark data set such as (C)BSD68, Set12, and Kodak, etc.

This paper rigorously shows how over-parameterization changes the convergence behaviors of gradient descent (GD) for the matrix sensing problem, where the goal is to recover an unknown low-rank ground-truth matrix from near-isotropic linear measurements. First, we consider the symmetric setting with the symmetric parameterization where M^* in R^{n times n} is a positive semi-definite unknown matrix of rank r ll n, and one uses a symmetric parameterization XX^top to learn M^*. Here X in R^{n times k} with k > r is the factor matrix. We give a novel Omega (1/T^2) lower bound of randomly initialized GD for the over-parameterized case (k >r) where T is the number of iterations. This is in stark contrast to the exact-parameterization scenario (k=r) where the convergence rate is exp (-Omega (T)). Next, we study asymmetric setting where M^* in R^{n_1 times n_2} is the unknown matrix of rank r ll min{n_1,n_2}, and one uses an asymmetric parameterization FG^top to learn M^* where F in R^{n_1 times k} and G in R^{n_2 times k}. Building on prior work, we give a global exact convergence result of randomly initialized GD for the exact-parameterization case (k=r) with an exp (-Omega(T)) rate. Furthermore, we give the first global exact convergence result for the over-parameterization case (k>r) with an exp(-Omega(alpha^2 T)) rate where alpha is the initialization scale. This linear convergence result in the over-parameterization case is especially significant because one can apply the asymmetric parameterization to the symmetric setting to speed up from Omega (1/T^2) to linear convergence. On the other hand, we propose a novel method that only modifies one step of GD and obtains a convergence rate independent of alpha, recovering the rate in the exact-parameterization case.

Calibration measures and reliability diagrams are two fundamental tools for measuring and interpreting the calibration of probabilistic predictors. Calibration measures quantify the degree of miscalibration, and reliability diagrams visualize the structure of this miscalibration. However, the most common constructions of reliability diagrams and calibration measures -- binning and ECE -- both suffer from well-known flaws (e.g. discontinuity). We show that a simple modification fixes both constructions: first smooth the observations using an RBF kernel, then compute the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of this smoothed function. We prove that with a careful choice of bandwidth, this method yields a calibration measure that is well-behaved in the sense of (B{\l}asiok, Gopalan, Hu, and Nakkiran 2023a) -- a consistent calibration measure. We call this measure the SmoothECE. Moreover, the reliability diagram obtained from this smoothed function visually encodes the SmoothECE, just as binned reliability diagrams encode the BinnedECE. We also provide a Python package with simple, hyperparameter-free methods for measuring and plotting calibration: `pip install relplot\`.

There is a growing gap between the impressive results of deep image generative models and classical algorithms that offer theoretical guarantees. The former suffer from mode collapse or memorization issues, limiting their application to scientific data. The latter require restrictive assumptions such as log-concavity to escape the curse of dimensionality. We partially bridge this gap by introducing conditionally strongly log-concave (CSLC) models, which factorize the data distribution into a product of conditional probability distributions that are strongly log-concave. This factorization is obtained with orthogonal projectors adapted to the data distribution. It leads to efficient parameter estimation and sampling algorithms, with theoretical guarantees, although the data distribution is not globally log-concave. We show that several challenging multiscale processes are conditionally log-concave using wavelet packet orthogonal projectors. Numerical results are shown for physical fields such as the varphi^4 model and weak lensing convergence maps with higher resolution than in previous works.

Yes. SE data can have "smoother" boundaries between classes (compared to traditional AI data sets). To be more precise, the magnitude of the second derivative of the loss function found in SE data is typically much smaller. A new hyper-parameter optimizer, called SMOOTHIE, can exploit this idiosyncrasy of SE data. We compare SMOOTHIE and a state-of-the-art AI hyper-parameter optimizer on three tasks: (a) GitHub issue lifetime prediction (b) detecting static code warnings false alarm; (c) defect prediction. For completeness, we also show experiments on some standard AI datasets. SMOOTHIE runs faster and predicts better on the SE data--but ties on non-SE data with the AI tool. Hence we conclude that SE data can be different to other kinds of data; and those differences mean that we should use different kinds of algorithms for our data. To support open science and other researchers working in this area, all our scripts and datasets are available on-line at https://github.com/yrahul3910/smoothness-hpo/.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Recent years have witnessed significant progress in developing efficient training and fast sampling approaches for diffusion models. A recent remarkable advancement is the use of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to describe data perturbation and generative modeling in a unified mathematical framework. In this paper, we reveal several intriguing geometric structures of diffusion models and contribute a simple yet powerful interpretation to their sampling dynamics. Through carefully inspecting a popular variance-exploding SDE and its marginal-preserving ordinary differential equation (ODE) for sampling, we discover that the data distribution and the noise distribution are smoothly connected with an explicit, quasi-linear sampling trajectory, and another implicit denoising trajectory, which even converges faster in terms of visual quality. We also establish a theoretical relationship between the optimal ODE-based sampling and the classic mean-shift (mode-seeking) algorithm, with which we can characterize the asymptotic behavior of diffusion models and identify the score deviation. These new geometric observations enable us to improve previous sampling algorithms, re-examine latent interpolation, as well as re-explain the working principles of distillation-based fast sampling techniques.

A diffusion model, which is formulated to produce an image using thousands of denoising steps, usually suffers from a slow inference speed. Existing acceleration algorithms simplify the sampling by skipping most steps yet exhibit considerable performance degradation. By viewing the generation of diffusion models as a discretized integrating process, we argue that the quality drop is partly caused by applying an inaccurate integral direction to a timestep interval. To rectify this issue, we propose a timestep aligner that helps find a more accurate integral direction for a particular interval at the minimum cost. Specifically, at each denoising step, we replace the original parameterization by conditioning the network on a new timestep, which is obtained by aligning the sampling distribution to the real distribution. Extensive experiments show that our plug-in design can be trained efficiently and boost the inference performance of various state-of-the-art acceleration methods, especially when there are few denoising steps. For example, when using 10 denoising steps on the popular LSUN Bedroom dataset, we improve the FID of DDIM from 9.65 to 6.07, simply by adopting our method for a more appropriate set of timesteps. Code will be made publicly available.

Accelerated stochastic gradient descent (ASGD) is a workhorse in deep learning and often achieves better generalization performance than SGD. However, existing optimization theory can only explain the faster convergence of ASGD, but cannot explain its better generalization. In this paper, we study the generalization of ASGD for overparameterized linear regression, which is possibly the simplest setting of learning with overparameterization. We establish an instance-dependent excess risk bound for ASGD within each eigen-subspace of the data covariance matrix. Our analysis shows that (i) ASGD outperforms SGD in the subspace of small eigenvalues, exhibiting a faster rate of exponential decay for bias error, while in the subspace of large eigenvalues, its bias error decays slower than SGD; and (ii) the variance error of ASGD is always larger than that of SGD. Our result suggests that ASGD can outperform SGD when the difference between the initialization and the true weight vector is mostly confined to the subspace of small eigenvalues. Additionally, when our analysis is specialized to linear regression in the strongly convex setting, it yields a tighter bound for bias error than the best-known result.

We introduce the FRactional-Order graph Neural Dynamical network (FROND), a new continuous graph neural network (GNN) framework. Unlike traditional continuous GNNs that rely on integer-order differential equations, FROND employs the Caputo fractional derivative to leverage the non-local properties of fractional calculus. This approach enables the capture of long-term dependencies in feature updates, moving beyond the Markovian update mechanisms in conventional integer-order models and offering enhanced capabilities in graph representation learning. We offer an interpretation of the node feature updating process in FROND from a non-Markovian random walk perspective when the feature updating is particularly governed by a diffusion process. We demonstrate analytically that oversmoothing can be mitigated in this setting. Experimentally, we validate the FROND framework by comparing the fractional adaptations of various established integer-order continuous GNNs, demonstrating their consistently improved performance and underscoring the framework's potential as an effective extension to enhance traditional continuous GNNs. The code is available at https://github.com/zknus/ICLR2024-FROND.

Finding the mode of a high dimensional probability distribution D is a fundamental algorithmic problem in statistics and data analysis. There has been particular interest in efficient methods for solving the problem when D is represented as a mixture model or kernel density estimate, although few algorithmic results with worst-case approximation and runtime guarantees are known. In this work, we significantly generalize a result of (LeeLiMusco:2021) on mode approximation for Gaussian mixture models. We develop randomized dimensionality reduction methods for mixtures involving a broader class of kernels, including the popular logistic, sigmoid, and generalized Gaussian kernels. As in Lee et al.'s work, our dimensionality reduction results yield quasi-polynomial algorithms for mode finding with multiplicative accuracy (1-epsilon) for any epsilon > 0. Moreover, when combined with gradient descent, they yield efficient practical heuristics for the problem. In addition to our positive results, we prove a hardness result for box kernels, showing that there is no polynomial time algorithm for finding the mode of a kernel density estimate, unless P = NP. Obtaining similar hardness results for kernels used in practice (like Gaussian or logistic kernels) is an interesting future direction.

Deep models have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series forecasting. However, due to the partially-observed nature of real-world applications, solely focusing on the target of interest, so-called endogenous variables, is usually insufficient to guarantee accurate forecasting. Notably, a system is often recorded into multiple variables, where the exogenous variables can provide valuable external information for endogenous variables. Thus, unlike well-established multivariate or univariate forecasting paradigms that either treat all the variables equally or ignore exogenous information, this paper focuses on a more practical setting: time series forecasting with exogenous variables. We propose a novel approach, TimeXer, to ingest external information to enhance the forecasting of endogenous variables. With deftly designed embedding layers, TimeXer empowers the canonical Transformer with the ability to reconcile endogenous and exogenous information, where patch-wise self-attention and variate-wise cross-attention are used simultaneously. Moreover, global endogenous tokens are learned to effectively bridge the causal information underlying exogenous series into endogenous temporal patches. Experimentally, TimeXer achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance on twelve real-world forecasting benchmarks and exhibits notable generality and scalability. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/TimeXer.

Preserving training dynamics across batch sizes is an important tool for practical machine learning as it enables the trade-off between batch size and wall-clock time. This trade-off is typically enabled by a scaling rule, for example, in stochastic gradient descent, one should scale the learning rate linearly with the batch size. Another important tool for practical machine learning is the model Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is a model copy that does not receive gradient information, but instead follows its target model with some momentum. This model EMA can improve the robustness and generalization properties of supervised learning, stabilize pseudo-labeling, and provide a learning signal for Self-Supervised Learning (SSL). Prior works have treated the model EMA separately from optimization, leading to different training dynamics across batch sizes and lower model performance. In this work, we provide a scaling rule for optimization in the presence of model EMAs and demonstrate its validity across a range of architectures, optimizers, and data modalities. We also show the rule's validity where the model EMA contributes to the optimization of the target model, enabling us to train EMA-based pseudo-labeling and SSL methods at small and large batch sizes. For SSL, we enable training of BYOL up to batch size 24,576 without sacrificing performance, optimally a 6times wall-clock time reduction.

This paper investigates the problem of generalized linear bandits with heavy-tailed rewards, whose (1+epsilon)-th moment is bounded for some epsilonin (0,1]. Although there exist methods for generalized linear bandits, most of them focus on bounded or sub-Gaussian rewards and are not well-suited for many real-world scenarios, such as financial markets and web-advertising. To address this issue, we propose two novel algorithms based on truncation and mean of medians. These algorithms achieve an almost optimal regret bound of O(dT^{1{1+epsilon}}), where d is the dimension of contextual information and T is the time horizon. Our truncation-based algorithm supports online learning, distinguishing it from existing truncation-based approaches. Additionally, our mean-of-medians-based algorithm requires only O(log T) rewards and one estimator per epoch, making it more practical. Moreover, our algorithms improve the regret bounds by a logarithmic factor compared to existing algorithms when epsilon=1. Numerical experimental results confirm the merits of our algorithms.

A common pipeline in learning-based control is to iteratively estimate a model of system dynamics, and apply a trajectory optimization algorithm - e.g.~iLQR - on the learned model to minimize a target cost. This paper conducts a rigorous analysis of a simplified variant of this strategy for general nonlinear systems. We analyze an algorithm which iterates between estimating local linear models of nonlinear system dynamics and performing iLQR-like policy updates. We demonstrate that this algorithm attains sample complexity polynomial in relevant problem parameters, and, by synthesizing locally stabilizing gains, overcomes exponential dependence in problem horizon. Experimental results validate the performance of our algorithm, and compare to natural deep-learning baselines.

Image denoisers have been shown to be powerful priors for solving inverse problems in imaging. In this work, we introduce a generalization of these methods that allows any image restoration network to be used as an implicit prior. The proposed method uses priors specified by deep neural networks pre-trained as general restoration operators. The method provides a principled approach for adapting state-of-the-art restoration models for other inverse problems. Our theoretical result analyzes its convergence to a stationary point of a global functional associated with the restoration operator. Numerical results show that the method using a super-resolution prior achieves state-of-the-art performance both quantitatively and qualitatively. Overall, this work offers a step forward for solving inverse problems by enabling the use of powerful pre-trained restoration models as priors.

Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference is to initially invest computational cost in training an inference network on simulated data, which can subsequently be used to rapidly perform inference (i.e., to return estimates of posterior distributions) for new observations. This approach has been applied to many real-world models in the sciences and engineering, but it is unclear how robust the approach is to adversarial perturbations in the observed data. Here, we study the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference, focusing on simulation-based estimation of multi-dimensional posterior distributions. We show that almost unrecognizable, targeted perturbations of the observations can lead to drastic changes in the predicted posterior and highly unrealistic posterior predictive samples, across several benchmark tasks and a real-world example from neuroscience. We propose a computationally efficient regularization scheme based on penalizing the Fisher information of the conditional density estimator, and show how it improves the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference.

In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to achieve asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds in several models. However, its optimality has been mainly addressed under light-tailed or one-parameter models that belong to exponential families. In this paper, we consider the optimality of TS for the Pareto model that has a heavy tail and is parameterized by two unknown parameters. Specifically, we discuss the optimality of TS with probability matching priors that include the Jeffreys prior and the reference priors. We first prove that TS with certain probability matching priors can achieve the optimal regret bound. Then, we show the suboptimality of TS with other priors, including the Jeffreys and the reference priors. Nevertheless, we find that TS with the Jeffreys and reference priors can achieve the asymptotic lower bound if one uses a truncation procedure. These results suggest carefully choosing noninformative priors to avoid suboptimality and show the effectiveness of truncation procedures in TS-based policies.

The instantaneous emission from a relativistic surface endowed with a Lorentz factor Gamma that decreases away from the outflow symmetry axis can naturally explain the three phases observed by Swift/XRT in GRBs and their afterglows (GRB tail, afterglow plateau and post-plateau). We expand the analytical formalism of the "Larger-Angle Emission" model previously developed for "Power-Law" outflows to "n-Exponential" outflows (e.g. exponential with n=1 and Gaussian with n=2) and compare their abilities to account for the X-ray emission of XRT afterglows. We assume power-law Gamma-dependences of two spectral characteristics (peak-energy and peak intensity) and find that, unlike Power-Law outflows, n-Exponential outflows cannot account for plateaus with a temporal dynamical range larger than 100. To include all information existing in the Swift/XRT measurements of X-ray aferglows (0.3-10 keV unabsorbed flux and effective spectral slope), we calculate 0.3 keV and 10 keV light-curves using a broken power-law emission spectrum of peak-energy and low-and high-energy slopes that are derived from the effective slope measured by XRT. This economical peak-energy determination is found to be consistent with more expensive spectral fits. The angular distributions of the Lorentz factor, comoving frame peak-energy, and peak-intensity (Gamma (theta), E'_p (theta), i'_p(theta)) constrain the (yet-to-be determined) convolution of various features of the production of relativistic jets by solar-mass black-holes and of their propagation through the progenitor/circumburst medium, while the E'_p (Gamma) and i'_p (Gamma) dependences may constrain the GRB dissipation mechanism and the GRB emission process.

Proximal causal learning is a promising framework for identifying the causal effect under the existence of unmeasured confounders. Within this framework, the doubly robust (DR) estimator was derived and has shown its effectiveness in estimation, especially when the model assumption is violated. However, the current form of the DR estimator is restricted to binary treatments, while the treatment can be continuous in many real-world applications. The primary obstacle to continuous treatments resides in the delta function present in the original DR estimator, making it infeasible in causal effect estimation and introducing a heavy computational burden in nuisance function estimation. To address these challenges, we propose a kernel-based DR estimator that can well handle continuous treatments. Equipped with its smoothness, we show that its oracle form is a consistent approximation of the influence function. Further, we propose a new approach to efficiently solve the nuisance functions. We then provide a comprehensive convergence analysis in terms of the mean square error. We demonstrate the utility of our estimator on synthetic datasets and real-world applications.

Pre-trained diffusion models have been successfully used as priors in a variety of linear inverse problems, where the goal is to reconstruct a signal from noisy linear measurements. However, existing approaches require knowledge of the linear operator. In this paper, we propose GibbsDDRM, an extension of Denoising Diffusion Restoration Models (DDRM) to a blind setting in which the linear measurement operator is unknown. GibbsDDRM constructs a joint distribution of the data, measurements, and linear operator by using a pre-trained diffusion model for the data prior, and it solves the problem by posterior sampling with an efficient variant of a Gibbs sampler. The proposed method is problem-agnostic, meaning that a pre-trained diffusion model can be applied to various inverse problems without fine-tuning. In experiments, it achieved high performance on both blind image deblurring and vocal dereverberation tasks, despite the use of simple generic priors for the underlying linear operators.

We present EGN, a stochastic second-order optimization algorithm that combines the generalized Gauss-Newton (GN) Hessian approximation with low-rank linear algebra to compute the descent direction. Leveraging the Duncan-Guttman matrix identity, the parameter update is obtained by factorizing a matrix which has the size of the mini-batch. This is particularly advantageous for large-scale machine learning problems where the dimension of the neural network parameter vector is several orders of magnitude larger than the batch size. Additionally, we show how improvements such as line search, adaptive regularization, and momentum can be seamlessly added to EGN to further accelerate the algorithm. Moreover, under mild assumptions, we prove that our algorithm converges to an epsilon-stationary point at a linear rate. Finally, our numerical experiments demonstrate that EGN consistently exceeds, or at most matches the generalization performance of well-tuned SGD, Adam, and SGN optimizers across various supervised and reinforcement learning tasks.

We present a faster algorithm to generate a warm start for sampling an arbitrary logconcave density specified by an evaluation oracle, leading to the first sub-cubic sampling algorithms for inputs in (near-)isotropic position. A long line of prior work incurred a warm-start penalty of at least linear in the dimension, hitting a cubic barrier, even for the special case of uniform sampling from convex bodies. Our improvement relies on two key ingredients of independent interest. (1) We show how to sample given a warm start in weaker notions of distance, in particular q-R\'enyi divergence for q=mathcal{O}(1), whereas previous analyses required stringent infty-R\'enyi divergence (with the exception of Hit-and-Run, whose known mixing time is higher). This marks the first improvement in the required warmness since Lov\'asz and Simonovits (1991). (2) We refine and generalize the log-Sobolev inequality of Lee and Vempala (2018), originally established for isotropic logconcave distributions in terms of the diameter of the support, to logconcave distributions in terms of a geometric average of the support diameter and the largest eigenvalue of the covariance matrix.

We propose a unified framework to study policy evaluation (PE) and the associated temporal difference (TD) methods for reinforcement learning in continuous time and space. We show that PE is equivalent to maintaining the martingale condition of a process. From this perspective, we find that the mean--square TD error approximates the quadratic variation of the martingale and thus is not a suitable objective for PE. We present two methods to use the martingale characterization for designing PE algorithms. The first one minimizes a "martingale loss function", whose solution is proved to be the best approximation of the true value function in the mean--square sense. This method interprets the classical gradient Monte-Carlo algorithm. The second method is based on a system of equations called the "martingale orthogonality conditions" with test functions. Solving these equations in different ways recovers various classical TD algorithms, such as TD(lambda), LSTD, and GTD. Different choices of test functions determine in what sense the resulting solutions approximate the true value function. Moreover, we prove that any convergent time-discretized algorithm converges to its continuous-time counterpart as the mesh size goes to zero, and we provide the convergence rate. We demonstrate the theoretical results and corresponding algorithms with numerical experiments and applications.

Diffusion models have demonstrated impressive generative capabilities, but their exposure bias problem, described as the input mismatch between training and sampling, lacks in-depth exploration. In this paper, we systematically investigate the exposure bias problem in diffusion models by first analytically modelling the sampling distribution, based on which we then attribute the prediction error at each sampling step as the root cause of the exposure bias issue. Furthermore, we discuss potential solutions to this issue and propose an intuitive metric for it. Along with the elucidation of exposure bias, we propose a simple, yet effective, training-free method called Epsilon Scaling to alleviate the exposure bias. We show that Epsilon Scaling explicitly moves the sampling trajectory closer to the vector field learned in the training phase by scaling down the network output (Epsilon), mitigating the input mismatch between training and sampling. Experiments on various diffusion frameworks (ADM, DDPM/DDIM, EDM, LDM), unconditional and conditional settings, and deterministic vs. stochastic sampling verify the effectiveness of our method. Remarkably, our ADM-ES, as a SOTA stochastic sampler, obtains 2.17 FID on CIFAR-10 under 100-step unconditional generation. The code is available at https://github.com/forever208/ADM-ES and https://github.com/forever208/EDM-ES.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

We revisit the theoretical properties of Hamiltonian stochastic differential equations (SDES) for Bayesian posterior sampling, and we study the two types of errors that arise from numerical SDE simulation: the discretization error and the error due to noisy gradient estimates in the context of data subsampling. Our main result is a novel analysis for the effect of mini-batches through the lens of differential operator splitting, revising previous literature results. The stochastic component of a Hamiltonian SDE is decoupled from the gradient noise, for which we make no normality assumptions. This leads to the identification of a convergence bottleneck: when considering mini-batches, the best achievable error rate is O(eta^2), with eta being the integrator step size. Our theoretical results are supported by an empirical study on a variety of regression and classification tasks for Bayesian neural networks.

Diffusion models achieve state-of-the-art performance in various generation tasks. However, their theoretical foundations fall far behind. This paper studies score approximation, estimation, and distribution recovery of diffusion models, when data are supported on an unknown low-dimensional linear subspace. Our result provides sample complexity bounds for distribution estimation using diffusion models. We show that with a properly chosen neural network architecture, the score function can be both accurately approximated and efficiently estimated. Furthermore, the generated distribution based on the estimated score function captures the data geometric structures and converges to a close vicinity of the data distribution. The convergence rate depends on the subspace dimension, indicating that diffusion models can circumvent the curse of data ambient dimensionality.

Recently, denoising diffusion models have led to significant breakthroughs in the generation of images, audio and text. However, it is still an open question on how to adapt their strong modeling ability to model time series. In this paper, we propose TimeDiff, a non-autoregressive diffusion model that achieves high-quality time series prediction with the introduction of two novel conditioning mechanisms: future mixup and autoregressive initialization. Similar to teacher forcing, future mixup allows parts of the ground-truth future predictions for conditioning, while autoregressive initialization helps better initialize the model with basic time series patterns such as short-term trends. Extensive experiments are performed on nine real-world datasets. Results show that TimeDiff consistently outperforms existing time series diffusion models, and also achieves the best overall performance across a variety of the existing strong baselines (including transformers and FiLM).

Score-based generative modeling, informally referred to as diffusion models, continue to grow in popularity across several important domains and tasks. While they provide high-quality and diverse samples from empirical distributions, important questions remain on the reliability and trustworthiness of these sampling procedures for their responsible use in critical scenarios. Conformal prediction is a modern tool to construct finite-sample, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees for any black-box predictor. In this work, we focus on image-to-image regression tasks and we present a generalization of the Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets (RCPS) procedure, that we term K-RCPS, which allows to (i) provide entrywise calibrated intervals for future samples of any diffusion model, and (ii) control a certain notion of risk with respect to a ground truth image with minimal mean interval length. Differently from existing conformal risk control procedures, ours relies on a novel convex optimization approach that allows for multidimensional risk control while provably minimizing the mean interval length. We illustrate our approach on two real-world image denoising problems: on natural images of faces as well as on computed tomography (CT) scans of the abdomen, demonstrating state of the art performance.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

While efficient distribution learning is no doubt behind the groundbreaking success of diffusion modeling, its theoretical guarantees are quite limited. In this paper, we provide the first rigorous analysis on approximation and generalization abilities of diffusion modeling for well-known function spaces. The highlight of this paper is that when the true density function belongs to the Besov space and the empirical score matching loss is properly minimized, the generated data distribution achieves the nearly minimax optimal estimation rates in the total variation distance and in the Wasserstein distance of order one. Furthermore, we extend our theory to demonstrate how diffusion models adapt to low-dimensional data distributions. We expect these results advance theoretical understandings of diffusion modeling and its ability to generate verisimilar outputs.

Breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) and advances in quantum computing (QC) drive the interdisciplinary field of quantum machine learning to new levels. However, due to the susceptibility of ML models to adversarial attacks, practical use raises safety-critical concerns. Existing Randomized Smoothing (RS) certification methods for classical machine learning models are computationally intensive. In this paper, we propose the combination of QC and the concept of discrete randomized smoothing to speed up the stochastic certification of ML models for discrete data. We show how to encode all the perturbations of the input binary data in superposition and use Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE) to obtain a quadratic reduction in the number of calls to the model that are required compared to traditional randomized smoothing techniques. In addition, we propose a new binary threat model to allow for an extensive evaluation of our approach on images, graphs, and text.

Clustering is a widely deployed unsupervised learning tool. Model-based clustering is a flexible framework to tackle data heterogeneity when the clusters have different shapes. Likelihood-based inference for mixture distributions often involves non-convex and high-dimensional objective functions, imposing difficult computational and statistical challenges. The classic expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a computationally thrifty iterative method that maximizes a surrogate function minorizing the log-likelihood of observed data in each iteration, which however suffers from bad local maxima even in the special case of the standard Gaussian mixture model with common isotropic covariance matrices. On the other hand, recent studies reveal that the unique global solution of a semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxed K-means achieves the information-theoretically sharp threshold for perfectly recovering the cluster labels under the standard Gaussian mixture model. In this paper, we extend the SDP approach to a general setting by integrating cluster labels as model parameters and propose an iterative likelihood adjusted SDP (iLA-SDP) method that directly maximizes the exact observed likelihood in the presence of data heterogeneity. By lifting the cluster assignment to group-specific membership matrices, iLA-SDP avoids centroids estimation -- a key feature that allows exact recovery under well-separateness of centroids without being trapped by their adversarial configurations. Thus iLA-SDP is less sensitive than EM to initialization and more stable on high-dimensional data. Our numeric experiments demonstrate that iLA-SDP can achieve lower mis-clustering errors over several widely used clustering methods including K-means, SDP and EM algorithms.

Reversing a diffusion process by learning its score forms the heart of diffusion-based generative modeling and for estimating properties of scientific systems. The diffusion processes that are tractable center on linear processes with a Gaussian stationary distribution. This limits the kinds of models that can be built to those that target a Gaussian prior or more generally limits the kinds of problems that can be generically solved to those that have conditionally linear score functions. In this work, we introduce a family of tractable denoising score matching objectives, called local-DSM, built using local increments of the diffusion process. We show how local-DSM melded with Taylor expansions enables automated training and score estimation with nonlinear diffusion processes. To demonstrate these ideas, we use automated-DSM to train generative models using non-Gaussian priors on challenging low dimensional distributions and the CIFAR10 image dataset. Additionally, we use the automated-DSM to learn the scores for nonlinear processes studied in statistical physics.

Solving Bayesian inverse problems efficiently remains a significant challenge due to the complexity of posterior distributions and the computational cost of traditional sampling methods. Given a series of observations and the forward model, we want to recover the distribution of the parameters, conditioned on observed experimental data. We show, that combining Conditional Flow Mathching (CFM) with transformer-based architecture, we can efficiently sample from such kind of distribution, conditioned on variable number of observations.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

The present work investigates two properties of level crossings of a stationary Gaussian process X(t) with autocorrelation function R_X(tau). We show firstly that if R_X(tau) admits finite second and fourth derivatives at the origin, the length of up-excursions above a large negative level -gamma is asymptotically exponential as -gamma to -infty. Secondly, assuming that R_X(tau) admits a finite second derivative at the origin and some defined properties, we derive the mean number of crossings as well as the length of successive excursions above two subsequent large levels. The asymptotic results are shown to be effective even for moderate values of crossing level. An application of the developed results is proposed to derive the probability of successive excursions above adjacent levels during a time window.

Given sparse observations of buoy velocities, oceanographers are interested in reconstructing ocean currents away from the buoys and identifying divergences in a current vector field. As a first and modular step, we focus on the time-stationary case - for instance, by restricting to short time periods. Since we expect current velocity to be a continuous but highly non-linear function of spatial location, Gaussian processes (GPs) offer an attractive model. But we show that applying a GP with a standard stationary kernel directly to buoy data can struggle at both current reconstruction and divergence identification, due to some physically unrealistic prior assumptions. To better reflect known physical properties of currents, we propose to instead put a standard stationary kernel on the divergence and curl-free components of a vector field obtained through a Helmholtz decomposition. We show that, because this decomposition relates to the original vector field just via mixed partial derivatives, we can still perform inference given the original data with only a small constant multiple of additional computational expense. We illustrate the benefits of our method with theory and experiments on synthetic and real ocean data.

Diffusion models have exhibited excellent performance in various domains. The probability flow ordinary differential equation (ODE) of diffusion models (i.e., diffusion ODEs) is a particular case of continuous normalizing flows (CNFs), which enables deterministic inference and exact likelihood evaluation. However, the likelihood estimation results by diffusion ODEs are still far from those of the state-of-the-art likelihood-based generative models. In this work, we propose several improved techniques for maximum likelihood estimation for diffusion ODEs, including both training and evaluation perspectives. For training, we propose velocity parameterization and explore variance reduction techniques for faster convergence. We also derive an error-bounded high-order flow matching objective for finetuning, which improves the ODE likelihood and smooths its trajectory. For evaluation, we propose a novel training-free truncated-normal dequantization to fill the training-evaluation gap commonly existing in diffusion ODEs. Building upon these techniques, we achieve state-of-the-art likelihood estimation results on image datasets (2.56 on CIFAR-10, 3.43/3.69 on ImageNet-32) without variational dequantization or data augmentation.

Well-known activation functions like ReLU or Leaky ReLU are non-differentiable at the origin. Over the years, many smooth approximations of ReLU have been proposed using various smoothing techniques. We propose new smooth approximations of a non-differentiable activation function by convolving it with approximate identities. In particular, we present smooth approximations of Leaky ReLU and show that they outperform several well-known activation functions in various datasets and models. We call this function Smooth Activation Unit (SAU). Replacing ReLU by SAU, we get 5.12% improvement with ShuffleNet V2 (2.0x) model on CIFAR100 dataset.

Nesterov's accelerated gradient (AG) is a popular technique to optimize objective functions comprising two components: a convex loss and a penalty function. While AG methods perform well for convex penalties, such as the LASSO, convergence issues may arise when it is applied to nonconvex penalties, such as SCAD. A recent proposal generalizes Nesterov's AG method to the nonconvex setting. The proposed algorithm requires specification of several hyperparameters for its practical application. Aside from some general conditions, there is no explicit rule for selecting the hyperparameters, and how different selection can affect convergence of the algorithm. In this article, we propose a hyperparameter setting based on the complexity upper bound to accelerate convergence, and consider the application of this nonconvex AG algorithm to high-dimensional linear and logistic sparse learning problems. We further establish the rate of convergence and present a simple and useful bound to characterize our proposed optimal damping sequence. Simulation studies show that convergence can be made, on average, considerably faster than that of the conventional proximal gradient algorithm. Our experiments also show that the proposed method generally outperforms the current state-of-the-art methods in terms of signal recovery.

Posterior sampling, i.e., exponential mechanism to sample from the posterior distribution, provides varepsilon-pure differential privacy (DP) guarantees and does not suffer from potentially unbounded privacy breach introduced by (varepsilon,delta)-approximate DP. In practice, however, one needs to apply approximate sampling methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), thus re-introducing the unappealing delta-approximation error into the privacy guarantees. To bridge this gap, we propose the Approximate SAample Perturbation (abbr. ASAP) algorithm which perturbs an MCMC sample with noise proportional to its Wasserstein-infinity (W_infty) distance from a reference distribution that satisfies pure DP or pure Gaussian DP (i.e., delta=0). We then leverage a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to generate the sample and prove that the algorithm converges in W_infty distance. We show that by combining our new techniques with a careful localization step, we obtain the first nearly linear-time algorithm that achieves the optimal rates in the DP-ERM problem with strongly convex and smooth losses.

We study the cost of overfitting in noisy kernel ridge regression (KRR), which we define as the ratio between the test error of the interpolating ridgeless model and the test error of the optimally-tuned model. We take an "agnostic" view in the following sense: we consider the cost as a function of sample size for any target function, even if the sample size is not large enough for consistency or the target is outside the RKHS. We analyze the cost of overfitting under a Gaussian universality ansatz using recently derived (non-rigorous) risk estimates in terms of the task eigenstructure. Our analysis provides a more refined characterization of benign, tempered and catastrophic overfitting (cf. Mallinar et al. 2022).

Generative Models (GMs) have attracted considerable attention due to their tremendous success in various domains, such as computer vision where they are capable to generate impressive realistic-looking images. Likelihood-based GMs are attractive due to the possibility to generate new data by a single model evaluation. However, they typically achieve lower sample quality compared to state-of-the-art score-based diffusion models (DMs). This paper provides a significant step in the direction of addressing this limitation. The idea is to borrow one of the strengths of score-based DMs, which is the ability to perform accurate density estimation in low-density regions and to address manifold overfitting by means of data mollification. We connect data mollification through the addition of Gaussian noise to Gaussian homotopy, which is a well-known technique to improve optimization. Data mollification can be implemented by adding one line of code in the optimization loop, and we demonstrate that this provides a boost in generation quality of likelihood-based GMs, without computational overheads. We report results on image data sets with popular likelihood-based GMs, including variants of variational autoencoders and normalizing flows, showing large improvements in FID score.

The gradual nature of a diffusion process that synthesizes samples in small increments constitutes a key ingredient of Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM), which have presented unprecedented quality in image synthesis and been recently explored in the motion domain. In this work, we propose to adapt the gradual diffusion concept (operating along a diffusion time-axis) into the temporal-axis of the motion sequence. Our key idea is to extend the DDPM framework to support temporally varying denoising, thereby entangling the two axes. Using our special formulation, we iteratively denoise a motion buffer that contains a set of increasingly-noised poses, which auto-regressively produces an arbitrarily long stream of frames. With a stationary diffusion time-axis, in each diffusion step we increment only the temporal-axis of the motion such that the framework produces a new, clean frame which is removed from the beginning of the buffer, followed by a newly drawn noise vector that is appended to it. This new mechanism paves the way towards a new framework for long-term motion synthesis with applications to character animation and other domains.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Recent advancements in data-driven weather forecasting models have delivered deterministic models that outperform the leading operational forecast systems based on traditional, physics-based models. However, these data-driven models are typically trained with a mean squared error loss function, which causes smoothing of fine scales through a "double penalty" effect. We develop a simple, parameter-free modification to this loss function that avoids this problem by separating the loss attributable to decorrelation from the loss attributable to spectral amplitude errors. Fine-tuning the GraphCast model with this new loss function results in sharp deterministic weather forecasts, an increase of the model's effective resolution from 1,250km to 160km, improvements to ensemble spread, and improvements to predictions of tropical cyclone strength and surface wind extremes.

Model attribution is a popular tool to explain the rationales behind model predictions. However, recent work suggests that the attributions are vulnerable to minute perturbations, which can be added to input samples to fool the attributions while maintaining the prediction outputs. Although empirical studies have shown positive performance via adversarial training, an effective certified defense method is eminently needed to understand the robustness of attributions. In this work, we propose to use uniform smoothing technique that augments the vanilla attributions by noises uniformly sampled from a certain space. It is proved that, for all perturbations within the attack region, the cosine similarity between uniformly smoothed attribution of perturbed sample and the unperturbed sample is guaranteed to be lower bounded. We also derive alternative formulations of the certification that is equivalent to the original one and provides the maximum size of perturbation or the minimum smoothing radius such that the attribution can not be perturbed. We evaluate the proposed method on three datasets and show that the proposed method can effectively protect the attributions from attacks, regardless of the architecture of networks, training schemes and the size of the datasets.

Given a factorization of an image into a sum of linear components, we present a zero-shot method to control each individual component through diffusion model sampling. For example, we can decompose an image into low and high spatial frequencies and condition these components on different text prompts. This produces hybrid images, which change appearance depending on viewing distance. By decomposing an image into three frequency subbands, we can generate hybrid images with three prompts. We also use a decomposition into grayscale and color components to produce images whose appearance changes when they are viewed in grayscale, a phenomena that naturally occurs under dim lighting. And we explore a decomposition by a motion blur kernel, which produces images that change appearance under motion blurring. Our method works by denoising with a composite noise estimate, built from the components of noise estimates conditioned on different prompts. We also show that for certain decompositions, our method recovers prior approaches to compositional generation and spatial control. Finally, we show that we can extend our approach to generate hybrid images from real images. We do this by holding one component fixed and generating the remaining components, effectively solving an inverse problem.