Daily Papers

The U-Net was presented in 2015. With its straight-forward and successful architecture it quickly evolved to a commonly used benchmark in medical image segmentation. The adaptation of the U-Net to novel problems, however, comprises several degrees of freedom regarding the exact architecture, preprocessing, training and inference. These choices are not independent of each other and substantially impact the overall performance. The present paper introduces the nnU-Net ('no-new-Net'), which refers to a robust and self-adapting framework on the basis of 2D and 3D vanilla U-Nets. We argue the strong case for taking away superfluous bells and whistles of many proposed network designs and instead focus on the remaining aspects that make out the performance and generalizability of a method. We evaluate the nnU-Net in the context of the Medical Segmentation Decathlon challenge, which measures segmentation performance in ten disciplines comprising distinct entities, image modalities, image geometries and dataset sizes, with no manual adjustments between datasets allowed. At the time of manuscript submission, nnU-Net achieves the highest mean dice scores across all classes and seven phase 1 tasks (except class 1 in BrainTumour) in the online leaderboard of the challenge.

Purpose: To evaluate the performance of an automated deep learning method in detecting ascites and subsequently quantifying its volume in patients with liver cirrhosis and ovarian cancer. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included contrast-enhanced and non-contrast abdominal-pelvic CT scans of patients with cirrhotic ascites and patients with ovarian cancer from two institutions, National Institutes of Health (NIH) and University of Wisconsin (UofW). The model, trained on The Cancer Genome Atlas Ovarian Cancer dataset (mean age, 60 years +/- 11 [s.d.]; 143 female), was tested on two internal (NIH-LC and NIH-OV) and one external dataset (UofW-LC). Its performance was measured by the Dice coefficient, standard deviations, and 95% confidence intervals, focusing on ascites volume in the peritoneal cavity. Results: On NIH-LC (25 patients; mean age, 59 years +/- 14 [s.d.]; 14 male) and NIH-OV (166 patients; mean age, 65 years +/- 9 [s.d.]; all female), the model achieved Dice scores of 0.855 +/- 0.061 (CI: 0.831-0.878) and 0.826 +/- 0.153 (CI: 0.764-0.887), with median volume estimation errors of 19.6% (IQR: 13.2-29.0) and 5.3% (IQR: 2.4-9.7) respectively. On UofW-LC (124 patients; mean age, 46 years +/- 12 [s.d.]; 73 female), the model had a Dice score of 0.830 +/- 0.107 (CI: 0.798-0.863) and median volume estimation error of 9.7% (IQR: 4.5-15.1). The model showed strong agreement with expert assessments, with r^2 values of 0.79, 0.98, and 0.97 across the test sets. Conclusion: The proposed deep learning method performed well in segmenting and quantifying the volume of ascites in concordance with expert radiologist assessments.

Accurate computer-aided polyp detection and segmentation during colonoscopy examinations can help endoscopists resect abnormal tissue and thereby decrease chances of polyps growing into cancer. Towards developing a fully automated model for pixel-wise polyp segmentation, we propose ResUNet++, which is an improved ResUNet architecture for colonoscopic image segmentation. Our experimental evaluations show that the suggested architecture produces good segmentation results on publicly available datasets. Furthermore, ResUNet++ significantly outperforms U-Net and ResUNet, two key state-of-the-art deep learning architectures, by achieving high evaluation scores with a dice coefficient of 81.33%, and a mean Intersection over Union (mIoU) of 79.27% for the Kvasir-SEG dataset and a dice coefficient of 79.55%, and a mIoU of 79.62% with CVC-612 dataset.

Digital pathology enables automatic analysis of histopathological sections using artificial intelligence (AI). Automatic evaluation could improve diagnostic efficiency and help find associations between morphological features and clinical outcome. For development of such prediction models, identifying invasive epithelial cells, and separating these from benign epithelial cells and in situ lesions would be the first step. In this study, we aimed to develop an AI model for segmentation of epithelial cells in sections from breast cancer. We generated epithelial ground truth masks by restaining hematoxylin and eosin (HE) sections with cytokeratin (CK) AE1/AE3, and by pathologists' annotations. HE/CK image pairs were used to train a convolutional neural network, and data augmentation was used to make the model more robust. Tissue microarrays (TMAs) from 839 patients, and whole slide images from two patients were used for training and evaluation of the models. The sections were derived from four cohorts of breast cancer patients. TMAs from 21 patients from a fifth cohort was used as a second test set. In quantitative evaluation, a mean Dice score of 0.70, 0.79, and 0.75 for invasive epithelial cells, benign epithelial cells, and in situ lesions, respectively, were achieved. In qualitative scoring (0-5) by pathologists, results were best for all epithelium and invasive epithelium, with scores of 4.7 and 4.4. Scores for benign epithelium and in situ lesions were 3.7 and 2.0. The proposed model segmented epithelial cells in HE stained breast cancer slides well, but further work is needed for accurate division between the classes. Immunohistochemistry, together with pathologists' annotations, enabled the creation of accurate ground truths. The model is made freely available in FastPathology and the code is available at https://github.com/AICAN-Research/breast-epithelium-segmentation

Precision medicine, such as patient-adaptive treatments assisted by medical image analysis, poses new challenges for segmentation algorithms in adapting to new patients, due to the large variability across different patients and the limited availability of annotated data for each patient. In this work, we propose a data-efficient segmentation algorithm, namely Part-aware Prompted Segment Anything Model (P^2SAM). Without any model fine-tuning, P^2SAM enables seamless adaptation to any new patients relying only on one-shot patient-specific data. We introduce a novel part-aware prompt mechanism to select multiple-point prompts based on the part-level features of the one-shot data, which can be extensively integrated into different promptable segmentation models, such as SAM and SAM 2. Moreover, to determine the optimal number of parts for each specific case, we propose a distribution-guided retrieval approach that further enhances the robustness of the part-aware prompt mechanism. P^2SAM improves the performance by +8.0% and +2.0% mean Dice score for two different patient-adaptive segmentation applications, respectively. In addition, P^2SAM also exhibits impressive generalizability in other adaptive segmentation tasks in the natural image domain, e.g., +6.4% mIoU within personalized object segmentation task. The code is available at: https://github.com/Zch0414/p2sam

Tissue segmentation is a routine preprocessing step to reduce the computational cost of whole slide image (WSI) analysis by excluding background regions. Traditional image processing techniques are commonly used for tissue segmentation, but often require manual adjustments to parameter values for atypical cases, fail to exclude all slide and scanning artifacts from the background, and are unable to segment adipose tissue. Pen marking artifacts in particular can be a potential source of bias for subsequent analyses if not removed. In addition, several applications require the separation of individual cross-sections, which can be challenging due to tissue fragmentation and adjacent positioning. To address these problems, we develop a convolutional neural network for tissue and pen marking segmentation using a dataset of 200 H&E stained WSIs. For separating tissue cross-sections, we propose a novel post-processing method based on clustering predicted centroid locations of the cross-sections in a 2D histogram. On an independent test set, the model achieved a mean Dice score of 0.981pm0.033 for tissue segmentation and a mean Dice score of 0.912pm0.090 for pen marking segmentation. The mean absolute difference between the number of annotated and separated cross-sections was 0.075pm0.350. Our results demonstrate that the proposed model can accurately segment H&E stained tissue cross-sections and pen markings in WSIs while being robust to many common slide and scanning artifacts. The model with trained model parameters and post-processing method are made publicly available as a Python package called SlideSegmenter.

Accurately segmenting different organs from medical images is a critical prerequisite for computer-assisted diagnosis and intervention planning. This study proposes a deep learning-based approach for segmenting various organs from CT and MRI scans and classifying diseases. Our study introduces a novel technique integrating momentum within residual blocks for enhanced training dynamics in medical image analysis. We applied our method in two distinct tasks: segmenting liver, lung, & colon data and classifying abdominal pelvic CT and MRI scans. The proposed approach has shown promising results, outperforming state-of-the-art methods on publicly available benchmarking datasets. For instance, in the lung segmentation dataset, our approach yielded significant enhancements over the TransNetR model, including a 5.72% increase in dice score, a 5.04% improvement in mean Intersection over Union (mIoU), an 8.02% improvement in recall, and a 4.42% improvement in precision. Hence, incorporating momentum led to state-of-the-art performance in both segmentation and classification tasks, representing a significant advancement in the field of medical imaging.

Existing function-calling benchmarks focus on single-turn interactions. However, they overlook the complexity of real-world scenarios. To quantify how existing benchmarks address practical applications, we introduce DICE-SCORE, a metric that evaluates the dispersion of tool-related information such as function name and parameter values throughout the dialogue. Analyzing existing benchmarks through DICE-SCORE reveals notably low scores, highlighting the need for more realistic scenarios. To address this gap, we present DICE-BENCH, a framework that constructs practical function-calling datasets by synthesizing conversations through a tool graph that maintains dependencies across rounds and a multi-agent system with distinct personas to enhance dialogue naturalness. The final dataset comprises 1,607 high-DICE-SCORE instances. Our experiments on 19 LLMs with DICE-BENCH show that significant advances are still required before such models can be deployed effectively in real-world settings. Our code and data are all publicly available: https://snuhcc.github.io/DICE-Bench/.

Since the introduction of TotalSegmentator CT, there is demand for a similar robust automated MRI segmentation tool that can be applied across all MRI sequences and anatomic structures. In this retrospective study, a nnU-Net model (TotalSegmentator) was trained on MRI and CT examinations to segment 80 anatomic structures relevant for use cases such as organ volumetry, disease characterization, surgical planning and opportunistic screening. Examinations were randomly sampled from routine clinical studies to represent real-world examples. Dice scores were calculated between the predicted segmentations and expert radiologist reference standard segmentations to evaluate model performance on an internal test set, two external test sets and against two publicly available models, and TotalSegmentator CT. The model was applied to an internal dataset containing abdominal MRIs to investigate age-dependent volume changes. A total of 1143 examinations (616 MRIs, 527 CTs) (median age 61 years, IQR 50-72) were split into training (n=1088, CT and MRI) and an internal test set (n=55; only MRI), two external test sets (AMOS, n=20; CHAOS, n=20; only MRI), and an internal aging-study dataset of 8672 abdominal MRIs (median age 59 years, IQR 45-70) were included. The model showed a Dice Score of 0.839 on the internal test set and outperformed two other models (Dice Score, 0.862 versus 0.759; and 0.838 versus 0.560; p<.001 for both). The proposed open-source, easy-to-use model allows for automatic, robust segmentation of 80 structures, extending the capabilities of TotalSegmentator to MRIs of any sequence. The ready-to-use online tool is available at https://totalsegmentator.com, the model at https://github.com/wasserth/TotalSegmentator, and the dataset at https://zenodo.org/records/14710732.

Current studies on adversarial robustness mainly focus on aggregating local robustness results from a set of data samples to evaluate and rank different models. However, the local statistics may not well represent the true global robustness of the underlying unknown data distribution. To address this challenge, this paper makes the first attempt to present a new framework, called GREAT Score , for global robustness evaluation of adversarial perturbation using generative models. Formally, GREAT Score carries the physical meaning of a global statistic capturing a mean certified attack-proof perturbation level over all samples drawn from a generative model. For finite-sample evaluation, we also derive a probabilistic guarantee on the sample complexity and the difference between the sample mean and the true mean. GREAT Score has several advantages: (1) Robustness evaluations using GREAT Score are efficient and scalable to large models, by sparing the need of running adversarial attacks. In particular, we show high correlation and significantly reduced computation cost of GREAT Score when compared to the attack-based model ranking on RobustBench (Croce,et. al. 2021). (2) The use of generative models facilitates the approximation of the unknown data distribution. In our ablation study with different generative adversarial networks (GANs), we observe consistency between global robustness evaluation and the quality of GANs. (3) GREAT Score can be used for remote auditing of privacy-sensitive black-box models, as demonstrated by our robustness evaluation on several online facial recognition services.

Expert interpretation of anatomical images of the human brain is the central part of neuro-radiology. Several machine learning-based techniques have been proposed to assist in the analysis process. However, the ML models typically need to be trained to perform a specific task, e.g., brain tumour segmentation or classification. Not only do the corresponding training data require laborious manual annotations, but a wide variety of abnormalities can be present in a human brain MRI - even more than one simultaneously, which renders representation of all possible anomalies very challenging. Hence, a possible solution is an unsupervised anomaly detection (UAD) system that can learn a data distribution from an unlabelled dataset of healthy subjects and then be applied to detect out of distribution samples. Such a technique can then be used to detect anomalies - lesions or abnormalities, for example, brain tumours, without explicitly training the model for that specific pathology. Several Variational Autoencoder (VAE) based techniques have been proposed in the past for this task. Even though they perform very well on controlled artificially simulated anomalies, many of them perform poorly while detecting anomalies in clinical data. This research proposes a compact version of the "context-encoding" VAE (ceVAE) model, combined with pre and post-processing steps, creating a UAD pipeline (StRegA), which is more robust on clinical data, and shows its applicability in detecting anomalies such as tumours in brain MRIs. The proposed pipeline achieved a Dice score of 0.642pm0.101 while detecting tumours in T2w images of the BraTS dataset and 0.859pm0.112 while detecting artificially induced anomalies, while the best performing baseline achieved 0.522pm0.135 and 0.783pm0.111, respectively.

The soft Dice loss (SDL) has taken a pivotal role in numerous automated segmentation pipelines in the medical imaging community. Over the last years, some reasons behind its superior functioning have been uncovered and further optimizations have been explored. However, there is currently no implementation that supports its direct utilization in scenarios involving soft labels. Hence, a synergy between the use of SDL and research leveraging the use of soft labels, also in the context of model calibration, is still missing. In this work, we introduce Dice semimetric losses (DMLs), which (i) are by design identical to SDL in a standard setting with hard labels, but (ii) can be employed in settings with soft labels. Our experiments on the public QUBIQ, LiTS and KiTS benchmarks confirm the potential synergy of DMLs with soft labels (e.g.\ averaging, label smoothing, and knowledge distillation) over hard labels (e.g.\ majority voting and random selection). As a result, we obtain superior Dice scores and model calibration, which supports the wider adoption of DMLs in practice. The code is available at https://github.com/zifuwanggg/JDTLosses{https://github.com/zifuwanggg/JDTLosses}.

This study evaluates the performance of OpenAI's o1-preview model in higher-order cognitive domains, including critical thinking, systematic thinking, computational thinking, data literacy, creative thinking, logical reasoning, and scientific reasoning. Using established benchmarks, we compared the o1-preview models's performance to human participants from diverse educational levels. o1-preview achieved a mean score of 24.33 on the Ennis-Weir Critical Thinking Essay Test (EWCTET), surpassing undergraduate (13.8) and postgraduate (18.39) participants (z = 1.60 and 0.90, respectively). In systematic thinking, it scored 46.1, SD = 4.12 on the Lake Urmia Vignette, significantly outperforming the human mean (20.08, SD = 8.13, z = 3.20). For data literacy, o1-preview scored 8.60, SD = 0.70 on Merk et al.'s "Use Data" dimension, compared to the human post-test mean of 4.17, SD = 2.02 (z = 2.19). On creative thinking tasks, the model achieved originality scores of 2.98, SD = 0.73, higher than the human mean of 1.74 (z = 0.71). In logical reasoning (LogiQA), it outperformed humans with average 90%, SD = 10% accuracy versus 86%, SD = 6.5% (z = 0.62). For scientific reasoning, it achieved near-perfect performance (mean = 0.99, SD = 0.12) on the TOSLS,, exceeding the highest human scores of 0.85, SD = 0.13 (z = 1.78). While o1-preview excelled in structured tasks, it showed limitations in problem-solving and adaptive reasoning. These results demonstrate the potential of AI to complement education in structured assessments but highlight the need for ethical oversight and refinement for broader applications.

Extent of resection after surgery is one of the main prognostic factors for patients diagnosed with glioblastoma. To achieve this, accurate segmentation and classification of residual tumor from post-operative MR images is essential. The current standard method for estimating it is subject to high inter- and intra-rater variability, and an automated method for segmentation of residual tumor in early post-operative MRI could lead to a more accurate estimation of extent of resection. In this study, two state-of-the-art neural network architectures for pre-operative segmentation were trained for the task. The models were extensively validated on a multicenter dataset with nearly 1000 patients, from 12 hospitals in Europe and the United States. The best performance achieved was a 61\% Dice score, and the best classification performance was about 80\% balanced accuracy, with a demonstrated ability to generalize across hospitals. In addition, the segmentation performance of the best models was on par with human expert raters. The predicted segmentations can be used to accurately classify the patients into those with residual tumor, and those with gross total resection.

For patients suffering from central nervous system tumors, prognosis estimation, treatment decisions, and postoperative assessments are made from the analysis of a set of magnetic resonance (MR) scans. Currently, the lack of open tools for standardized and automatic tumor segmentation and generation of clinical reports, incorporating relevant tumor characteristics, leads to potential risks from inherent decisions' subjectivity. To tackle this problem, the proposed Raidionics open-source software has been developed, offering both a user-friendly graphical user interface and stable processing backend. The software includes preoperative segmentation models for each of the most common tumor types (i.e., glioblastomas, lower grade gliomas, meningiomas, and metastases), together with one early postoperative glioblastoma segmentation model. Preoperative segmentation performances were quite homogeneous across the four different brain tumor types, with an average Dice around 85% and patient-wise recall and precision around 95%. Postoperatively, performances were lower with an average Dice of 41%. Overall, the generation of a standardized clinical report, including the tumor segmentation and features computation, requires about ten minutes on a regular laptop. The proposed Raidionics software is the first open solution enabling an easy use of state-of-the-art segmentation models for all major tumor types, including preoperative and postsurgical standardized reports.

The S{\o}rensen--Dice Coefficient has recently seen rising popularity as a loss function (also known as Dice loss) due to its robustness in tasks where the number of negative samples significantly exceeds that of positive samples, such as semantic segmentation, natural language processing, and sound event detection. Conventional training of polyphonic sound event detection systems with binary cross-entropy loss often results in suboptimal detection performance as the training is often overwhelmed by updates from negative samples. In this paper, we investigated the effect of the Dice loss, intra- and inter-modal transfer learning, data augmentation, and recording formats, on the performance of polyphonic sound event detection systems with multichannel inputs. Our analysis showed that polyphonic sound event detection systems trained with Dice loss consistently outperformed those trained with cross-entropy loss across different training settings and recording formats in terms of F1 score and error rate. We achieved further performance gains via the use of transfer learning and an appropriate combination of different data augmentation techniques.

Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. We collected 350{,}757 coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing developed by Diaconis, Holmes, and Montgomery (DHM; 2007). The model asserts that when people flip an ordinary coin, it tends to land on the same side it started -- DHM estimated the probability of a same-side outcome to be about 51\%. Our data lend strong support to this precise prediction: the coins landed on the same side more often than not, Pr(same side) = 0.508, 95\% credible interval (CI) [0.506, 0.509], BF_{same-side bias} = 2359. Furthermore, the data revealed considerable between-people variation in the degree of this same-side bias. Our data also confirmed the generic prediction that when people flip an ordinary coin -- with the initial side-up randomly determined -- it is equally likely to land heads or tails: Pr(heads) = 0.500, 95\% CI [0.498, 0.502], BF_{heads-tails bias} = 0.182. Furthermore, this lack of heads-tails bias does not appear to vary across coins. Additional analyses revealed that the within-people same-side bias decreased as more coins were flipped, an effect that is consistent with the possibility that practice makes people flip coins in a less wobbly fashion. Our data therefore provide strong evidence that when some (but not all) people flip a fair coin, it tends to land on the same side it started.

Automated Essay Score (AES) is proven to be one of the cutting-edge technologies. Scoring techniques are used for various purposes. Reliable scores are calculated based on influential variables. Such variables can be computed by different methods based on the domain. The research is concentrated on the user's understanding of a given topic. The analysis is based on a scoring index by using Large Language Models. The user can then compare and contrast the understanding of a topic that they recently learned. The results are then contributed towards learning analytics and progression is made for enhancing the learning ability. In this research, the focus is on summarizing a PDF document and gauging a user's understanding of its content. The process involves utilizing a Langchain tool to summarize the PDF and extract the essential information. By employing this technique, the research aims to determine how well the user comprehends the summarized content.

Risk scores are simple classification models that let users make quick risk predictions by adding and subtracting a few small numbers. These models are widely used in medicine and criminal justice, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be calibrated, sparse, use small integer coefficients, and obey application-specific operational constraints. In this paper, we present a new machine learning approach to learn risk scores. We formulate the risk score problem as a mixed integer nonlinear program, and present a cutting plane algorithm for non-convex settings to efficiently recover its optimal solution. We improve our algorithm with specialized techniques to generate feasible solutions, narrow the optimality gap, and reduce data-related computation. Our approach can fit risk scores in a way that scales linearly in the number of samples, provides a certificate of optimality, and obeys real-world constraints without parameter tuning or post-processing. We benchmark the performance benefits of this approach through an extensive set of numerical experiments, comparing to risk scores built using heuristic approaches. We also discuss its practical benefits through a real-world application where we build a customized risk score for ICU seizure prediction in collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital.

The development of state-of-the-art systems in different applied areas of machine learning (ML) is driven by benchmarks, which have shaped the paradigm of evaluating generalisation capabilities from multiple perspectives. Although the paradigm is shifting towards more fine-grained evaluation across diverse tasks, the delicate question of how to aggregate the performances has received particular interest in the community. In general, benchmarks follow the unspoken utilitarian principles, where the systems are ranked based on their mean average score over task-specific metrics. Such aggregation procedure has been viewed as a sub-optimal evaluation protocol, which may have created the illusion of progress. This paper proposes Vote'n'Rank, a framework for ranking systems in multi-task benchmarks under the principles of the social choice theory. We demonstrate that our approach can be efficiently utilised to draw new insights on benchmarking in several ML sub-fields and identify the best-performing systems in research and development case studies. The Vote'n'Rank's procedures are more robust than the mean average while being able to handle missing performance scores and determine conditions under which the system becomes the winner.

There is a growing literature on reasoning by large language models (LLMs), but the discussion on the uncertainty in their responses is still lacking. Our aim is to assess the extent of confidence that LLMs have in their answers and how it correlates with accuracy. Confidence is measured (i) qualitatively in terms of persistence in keeping their answer when prompted to reconsider, and (ii) quantitatively in terms of self-reported confidence score. We investigate the performance of three LLMs -- GPT4o, GPT4-turbo and Mistral -- on two benchmark sets of questions on causal judgement and formal fallacies and a set of probability and statistical puzzles and paradoxes. Although the LLMs show significantly better performance than random guessing, there is a wide variability in their tendency to change their initial answers. There is a positive correlation between qualitative confidence and accuracy, but the overall accuracy for the second answer is often worse than for the first answer. There is a strong tendency to overstate the self-reported confidence score. Confidence is only partially explained by the underlying token-level probability. The material effects of prompting on qualitative confidence and the strong tendency for overconfidence indicate that current LLMs do not have any internally coherent sense of confidence.

We describe recent research on the use of actual causality in the definition of responsibility scores as explanations for query answers in databases, and for outcomes from classification models in machine learning. In the case of databases, useful connections with database repairs are illustrated and exploited. Repairs are also used to give a quantitative measure of the consistency of a database. For classification models, the responsibility score is properly extended and illustrated. The efficient computation of Shap-score is also analyzed and discussed. The emphasis is placed on work done by the author and collaborators.

In this paper I investigate the effect of random seed selection on the accuracy when using popular deep learning architectures for computer vision. I scan a large amount of seeds (up to 10^4) on CIFAR 10 and I also scan fewer seeds on Imagenet using pre-trained models to investigate large scale datasets. The conclusions are that even if the variance is not very large, it is surprisingly easy to find an outlier that performs much better or much worse than the average.

Math reasoning is becoming an ever increasing area of focus as we scale large language models. However, even the previously-toughest evals like MATH are now close to saturated by frontier models (90.0% for o1-mini and 86.5% for Gemini 1.5 Pro). We introduce HARP, Human Annotated Reasoning Problems (for Math), consisting of 5,409 problems from the US national math competitions (A(J)HSME, AMC, AIME, USA(J)MO). Of these, 4,780 have answers that are automatically check-able (with libraries such as SymPy). These problems range six difficulty levels, with frontier models performing relatively poorly on the hardest bracket of 197 problems (average accuracy 41.1% for o1-mini, and 9.6% for Gemini 1.5 Pro). Our dataset also features multiple choices (for 4,110 problems) and an average of two human-written, ground-truth solutions per problem, offering new avenues of research that we explore briefly. We report evaluations for many frontier models and share some interesting analyses, such as demonstrating that frontier models across families intrinsically scale their inference-time compute for more difficult problems. Finally, we open source all code used for dataset construction (including scraping) and all code for evaluation (including answer checking) to enable future research at: https://github.com/aadityasingh/HARP.

Constructing benchmarks that test the abilities of modern natural language understanding models is difficult - pre-trained language models exploit artifacts in benchmarks to achieve human parity, but still fail on adversarial examples and make errors that demonstrate a lack of common sense. In this work, we propose gamification as a framework for data construction. The goal of players in the game is to compose questions that mislead a rival AI while using specific phrases for extra points. The game environment leads to enhanced user engagement and simultaneously gives the game designer control over the collected data, allowing us to collect high-quality data at scale. Using our method we create CommonsenseQA 2.0, which includes 14,343 yes/no questions, and demonstrate its difficulty for models that are orders-of-magnitude larger than the AI used in the game itself. Our best baseline, the T5-based Unicorn with 11B parameters achieves an accuracy of 70.2%, substantially higher than GPT-3 (52.9%) in a few-shot inference setup. Both score well below human performance which is at 94.1%.

Current rating systems update ratings incrementally and may not always accurately reflect a player's true strength at all times, especially for rapidly improving players or very rusty players. To overcome this, we explore a method to estimate player ratings directly from game moves and clock times. We compiled a benchmark dataset from Lichess, encompassing various time controls and including move sequences and clock times. Our model architecture comprises a CNN to learn positional features, which are then integrated with clock-time data into a bidirectional LSTM, predicting player ratings after each move. The model achieved an MAE of 182 rating points in the test data. Additionally, we applied our model to the 2024 IEEE Big Data Cup Chess Puzzle Difficulty Competition dataset, predicted puzzle ratings and achieved competitive results. This model is the first to use no hand-crafted features to estimate chess ratings and also the first to output a rating prediction for each move. Our method highlights the potential of using move-based rating estimation for enhancing rating systems and potentially other applications such as cheating detection.

In most machine learning tasks, we evaluate a model M on a given data population S by measuring a population-level metric F(S;M). Examples of such evaluation metric F include precision/recall for (binary) recognition, the F1 score for multi-class classification, and the BLEU metric for language generation. On the other hand, the model M is trained by optimizing a sample-level loss G(S_t;M) at each learning step t, where S_t is a subset of S (a.k.a. the mini-batch). Popular choices of G include cross-entropy loss, the Dice loss, and sentence-level BLEU scores. A fundamental assumption behind this paradigm is that the mean value of the sample-level loss G, if averaged over all possible samples, should effectively represent the population-level metric F of the task, such as, that E[ G(S_t;M) ] approx F(S;M). In this paper, we systematically investigate the above assumption in several NLP tasks. We show, both theoretically and experimentally, that some popular designs of the sample-level loss G may be inconsistent with the true population-level metric F of the task, so that models trained to optimize the former can be substantially sub-optimal to the latter, a phenomenon we call it, Simpson's bias, due to its deep connections with the classic paradox known as Simpson's reversal paradox in statistics and social sciences.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

We investigated the temporal distribution of goals in soccer using event-level data from 3,433 matches across 21 leagues and competitions. Contrary to the prevailing notion of randomness, we found that the probability of a goal being scored is higher as matches progress, and we observed fewer-than-expected goals in the early minutes of each half. Further analysis of the time between subsequent goals shows an exponential decay, indicating that most goals naturally cluster closer together in time. By splitting this distribution by the team that scores the next goal, we observe bursty goal-scoring dynamics, wherein the same team is more likely to score again shortly after its previous goal. These findings highlight the importance of match context (whether driven by fatigue, tactical adaptations, or psychological momentum) in shaping when teams are able to score. Moreover, the results open avenues for extending data-driven methods for identifying high-impact moments in a match and refining strategic decision-making in soccer's evolving analytical landscape.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.