Daily Papers

Neural posterior estimation (NPE), a type of amortized variational inference, is a computationally efficient means of constructing probabilistic catalogs of light sources from astronomical images. To date, NPE has not been used to perform inference in models with spatially varying covariates. However, ground-based astronomical images have spatially varying sky backgrounds and point spread functions (PSFs), and accounting for this variation is essential for constructing accurate catalogs of imaged light sources. In this work, we introduce a method of performing NPE with spatially varying backgrounds and PSFs. In this method, we generate synthetic catalogs and semi-synthetic images for these catalogs using randomly sampled PSF and background estimates from existing surveys. Using this data, we train a neural network, which takes an astronomical image and representations of its background and PSF as input, to output a probabilistic catalog. Our experiments with Sloan Digital Sky Survey data demonstrate the effectiveness of NPE in the presence of spatially varying backgrounds and PSFs for light source detection, star/galaxy separation, and flux measurement.

Simulation-based inference with conditional neural density estimators is a powerful approach to solving inverse problems in science. However, these methods typically treat the underlying forward model as a black box, with no way to exploit geometric properties such as equivariances. Equivariances are common in scientific models, however integrating them directly into expressive inference networks (such as normalizing flows) is not straightforward. We here describe an alternative method to incorporate equivariances under joint transformations of parameters and data. Our method -- called group equivariant neural posterior estimation (GNPE) -- is based on self-consistently standardizing the "pose" of the data while estimating the posterior over parameters. It is architecture-independent, and applies both to exact and approximate equivariances. As a real-world application, we use GNPE for amortized inference of astrophysical binary black hole systems from gravitational-wave observations. We show that GNPE achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while reducing inference times by three orders of magnitude.

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

Autoencoders and their variants are among the most widely used models in representation learning and generative modeling. However, autoencoder-based models usually assume that the learned representations are i.i.d. and fail to capture the correlations between the data samples. To address this issue, we propose a novel Sparse Gaussian Process Bayesian Autoencoder (SGPBAE) model in which we impose fully Bayesian sparse Gaussian Process priors on the latent space of a Bayesian Autoencoder. We perform posterior estimation for this model via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We evaluate our approach qualitatively and quantitatively on a wide range of representation learning and generative modeling tasks and show that our approach consistently outperforms multiple alternatives relying on Variational Autoencoders.

We develop a novel method for carrying out model selection for Bayesian autoencoders (BAEs) by means of prior hyper-parameter optimization. Inspired by the common practice of type-II maximum likelihood optimization and its equivalence to Kullback-Leibler divergence minimization, we propose to optimize the distributional sliced-Wasserstein distance (DSWD) between the output of the autoencoder and the empirical data distribution. The advantages of this formulation are that we can estimate the DSWD based on samples and handle high-dimensional problems. We carry out posterior estimation of the BAE parameters via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and turn our BAE into a generative model by fitting a flexible Dirichlet mixture model in the latent space. Consequently, we obtain a powerful alternative to variational autoencoders, which are the preferred choice in modern applications of autoencoders for representation learning with uncertainty. We evaluate our approach qualitatively and quantitatively using a vast experimental campaign on a number of unsupervised learning tasks and show that, in small-data regimes where priors matter, our approach provides state-of-the-art results, outperforming multiple competitive baselines.

Motivation: Ab initio protein docking represents a major challenge for optimizing a noisy and costly "black box"-like function in a high-dimensional space. Despite progress in this field, there is no docking method available for rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) of its solution quality (e.g. interface RMSD or iRMSD). Results: We introduce a novel algorithm, Bayesian Active Learning (BAL), for optimization and UQ of such black-box functions and flexible protein docking. BAL directly models the posterior distribution of the global optimum (or native structures for protein docking) with active sampling and posterior estimation iteratively feeding each other. Furthermore, we use complex normal modes to represent a homogeneous Euclidean conformation space suitable for high-dimension optimization and construct funnel-like energy models for encounter complexes. Over a protein docking benchmark set and a CAPRI set including homology docking, we establish that BAL significantly improve against both starting points by rigid docking and refinements by particle swarm optimization, providing for one third targets a top-3 near-native prediction. BAL also generates tight confidence intervals with half range around 25% of iRMSD and confidence level at 85%. Its estimated probability of a prediction being native or not achieves binary classification AUROC at 0.93 and AUPRC over 0.60 (compared to 0.14 by chance); and also found to help ranking predictions. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first uncertainty quantification solution for protein docking, with theoretical rigor and comprehensive assessment. Source codes are available at https://github.com/Shen-Lab/BAL.

Bayesian Inference offers principled tools to tackle many critical problems with modern neural networks such as poor calibration and generalization, and data inefficiency. However, scaling Bayesian inference to large architectures is challenging and requires restrictive approximations. Monte Carlo Dropout has been widely used as a relatively cheap way for approximate Inference and to estimate uncertainty with deep neural networks. Traditionally, the dropout mask is sampled independently from a fixed distribution. Recent works show that the dropout mask can be viewed as a latent variable, which can be inferred with variational inference. These methods face two important challenges: (a) the posterior distribution over masks can be highly multi-modal which can be difficult to approximate with standard variational inference and (b) it is not trivial to fully utilize sample-dependent information and correlation among dropout masks to improve posterior estimation. In this work, we propose GFlowOut to address these issues. GFlowOut leverages the recently proposed probabilistic framework of Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) to learn the posterior distribution over dropout masks. We empirically demonstrate that GFlowOut results in predictive distributions that generalize better to out-of-distribution data, and provide uncertainty estimates which lead to better performance in downstream tasks.

We present microlux, which is a Jax-based code that can compute the binary microlensing light curve and its derivatives both efficiently and accurately. The key feature of microlux is the implementation of a modified version of the adaptive sampling algorithm that was originally proposed by V. Bozza to account for the finite-source effect most efficiently. The efficiency and accuracy of microlux have been verified across the relevant parameter space for binary microlensing. As a differentiable code, microlux makes it possible to apply gradient-based algorithms to the search and posterior estimation of the microlensing modeling. As an example, we use microlux to model a real microlensing event and infer the model posterior via both Fisher information matrix and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, neither of which would have been possible without the access to accurate model gradients.

Decentralized stochastic gradient descent (D-SGD) allows collaborative learning on massive devices simultaneously without the control of a central server. However, existing theories claim that decentralization invariably undermines generalization. In this paper, we challenge the conventional belief and present a completely new perspective for understanding decentralized learning. We prove that D-SGD implicitly minimizes the loss function of an average-direction Sharpness-aware minimization (SAM) algorithm under general non-convex non-beta-smooth settings. This surprising asymptotic equivalence reveals an intrinsic regularization-optimization trade-off and three advantages of decentralization: (1) there exists a free uncertainty evaluation mechanism in D-SGD to improve posterior estimation; (2) D-SGD exhibits a gradient smoothing effect; and (3) the sharpness regularization effect of D-SGD does not decrease as total batch size increases, which justifies the potential generalization benefit of D-SGD over centralized SGD (C-SGD) in large-batch scenarios.

Diffusion-based generative models have shown great potential for image synthesis, but there is a lack of research on the security and privacy risks they may pose. In this paper, we investigate the vulnerability of diffusion models to Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs), a common privacy concern. Our results indicate that existing MIAs designed for GANs or VAE are largely ineffective on diffusion models, either due to inapplicable scenarios (e.g., requiring the discriminator of GANs) or inappropriate assumptions (e.g., closer distances between synthetic samples and member samples). To address this gap, we propose Step-wise Error Comparing Membership Inference (SecMI), a query-based MIA that infers memberships by assessing the matching of forward process posterior estimation at each timestep. SecMI follows the common overfitting assumption in MIA where member samples normally have smaller estimation errors, compared with hold-out samples. We consider both the standard diffusion models, e.g., DDPM, and the text-to-image diffusion models, e.g., Latent Diffusion Models and Stable Diffusion. Experimental results demonstrate that our methods precisely infer the membership with high confidence on both of the two scenarios across multiple different datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/jinhaoduan/SecMI.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

Algorithms such as Differentially Private SGD enable training machine learning models with formal privacy guarantees. However, there is a discrepancy between the protection that such algorithms guarantee in theory and the protection they afford in practice. An emerging strand of work empirically estimates the protection afforded by differentially private training as a confidence interval for the privacy budget varepsilon spent on training a model. Existing approaches derive confidence intervals for varepsilon from confidence intervals for the false positive and false negative rates of membership inference attacks. Unfortunately, obtaining narrow high-confidence intervals for epsilon using this method requires an impractically large sample size and training as many models as samples. We propose a novel Bayesian method that greatly reduces sample size, and adapt and validate a heuristic to draw more than one sample per trained model. Our Bayesian method exploits the hypothesis testing interpretation of differential privacy to obtain a posterior for varepsilon (not just a confidence interval) from the joint posterior of the false positive and false negative rates of membership inference attacks. For the same sample size and confidence, we derive confidence intervals for varepsilon around 40% narrower than prior work. The heuristic, which we adapt from label-only DP, can be used to further reduce the number of trained models needed to get enough samples by up to 2 orders of magnitude.

A Neural Process (NP) estimates a stochastic process implicitly defined with neural networks given a stream of data, rather than pre-specifying priors already known, such as Gaussian processes. An ideal NP would learn everything from data without any inductive biases, but in practice, we often restrict the class of stochastic processes for the ease of estimation. One such restriction is the use of a finite-dimensional latent variable accounting for the uncertainty in the functions drawn from NPs. Some recent works show that this can be improved with more "data-driven" source of uncertainty such as bootstrapping. In this work, we take a different approach based on the martingale posterior, a recently developed alternative to Bayesian inference. For the martingale posterior, instead of specifying prior-likelihood pairs, a predictive distribution for future data is specified. Under specific conditions on the predictive distribution, it can be shown that the uncertainty in the generated future data actually corresponds to the uncertainty of the implicitly defined Bayesian posteriors. Based on this result, instead of assuming any form of the latent variables, we equip a NP with a predictive distribution implicitly defined with neural networks and use the corresponding martingale posteriors as the source of uncertainty. The resulting model, which we name as Martingale Posterior Neural Process (MPNP), is demonstrated to outperform baselines on various tasks.

Posterior sampling has been shown to be a powerful Bayesian approach for solving imaging inverse problems. The recent plug-and-play unadjusted Langevin algorithm (PnP-ULA) has emerged as a promising method for Monte Carlo sampling and minimum mean squared error (MMSE) estimation by combining physical measurement models with deep-learning priors specified using image denoisers. However, the intricate relationship between the sampling distribution of PnP-ULA and the mismatched data-fidelity and denoiser has not been theoretically analyzed. We address this gap by proposing a posterior-L2 pseudometric and using it to quantify an explicit error bound for PnP-ULA under mismatched posterior distribution. We numerically validate our theory on several inverse problems such as sampling from Gaussian mixture models and image deblurring. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of the sampling distribution of PnP-ULA to a mismatch in the measurement model and the denoiser can be precisely characterized.

Treatment effect estimation in continuous time is crucial for personalized medicine. However, existing methods for this task are limited to point estimates of the potential outcomes, whereas uncertainty estimates have been ignored. Needless to say, uncertainty quantification is crucial for reliable decision-making in medical applications. To fill this gap, we propose a novel Bayesian neural controlled differential equation (BNCDE) for treatment effect estimation in continuous time. In our BNCDE, the time dimension is modeled through a coupled system of neural controlled differential equations and neural stochastic differential equations, where the neural stochastic differential equations allow for tractable variational Bayesian inference. Thereby, for an assigned sequence of treatments, our BNCDE provides meaningful posterior predictive distributions of the potential outcomes. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first tailored neural method to provide uncertainty estimates of treatment effects in continuous time. As such, our method is of direct practical value for promoting reliable decision-making in medicine.

3D human pose estimation has been a long-standing challenge in computer vision and graphics, where multi-view methods have significantly progressed but are limited by the tedious calibration processes. Existing multi-view methods are restricted to fixed camera pose and therefore lack generalization ability. This paper presents a novel Probabilistic Triangulation module that can be embedded in a calibrated 3D human pose estimation method, generalizing it to uncalibration scenes. The key idea is to use a probability distribution to model the camera pose and iteratively update the distribution from 2D features instead of using camera pose. Specifically, We maintain a camera pose distribution and then iteratively update this distribution by computing the posterior probability of the camera pose through Monte Carlo sampling. This way, the gradients can be directly back-propagated from the 3D pose estimation to the 2D heatmap, enabling end-to-end training. Extensive experiments on Human3.6M and CMU Panoptic demonstrate that our method outperforms other uncalibration methods and achieves comparable results with state-of-the-art calibration methods. Thus, our method achieves a trade-off between estimation accuracy and generalizability. Our code is in https://github.com/bymaths/probabilistic_triangulation

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

In contrastive learning, two views of an original image, generated by different augmentations, are considered a positive pair, and their similarity is required to be high. Similarly, two views of distinct images form a negative pair, with encouraged low similarity. Typically, a single similarity measure, provided by a lone projection head, evaluates positive and negative sample pairs. However, due to diverse augmentation strategies and varying intra-sample similarity, views from the same image may not always be similar. Additionally, owing to inter-sample similarity, views from different images may be more akin than those from the same image. Consequently, enforcing high similarity for positive pairs and low similarity for negative pairs may be unattainable, and in some cases, such enforcement could detrimentally impact performance. To address this challenge, we propose using multiple projection heads, each producing a distinct set of features. Our pre-training loss function emerges from a solution to the maximum likelihood estimation over head-wise posterior distributions of positive samples given observations. This loss incorporates the similarity measure over positive and negative pairs, each re-weighted by an individual adaptive temperature, regulated to prevent ill solutions. Our approach, Adaptive Multi-Head Contrastive Learning (AMCL), can be applied to and experimentally enhances several popular contrastive learning methods such as SimCLR, MoCo, and Barlow Twins. The improvement remains consistent across various backbones and linear probing epochs, and becomes more significant when employing multiple augmentation methods.

Diffusion models have gained traction as powerful algorithms for synthesizing high-quality images. Central to these algorithms is the diffusion process, a set of equations which maps data to noise in a way that can significantly affect performance. In this paper, we explore whether the diffusion process can be learned from data. Our work is grounded in Bayesian inference and seeks to improve log-likelihood estimation by casting the learned diffusion process as an approximate variational posterior that yields a tighter lower bound (ELBO) on the likelihood. A widely held assumption is that the ELBO is invariant to the noise process: our work dispels this assumption and proposes multivariate learned adaptive noise (MULAN), a learned diffusion process that applies noise at different rates across an image. Specifically, our method relies on a multivariate noise schedule that is a function of the data to ensure that the ELBO is no longer invariant to the choice of the noise schedule as in previous works. Empirically, MULAN sets a new state-of-the-art in density estimation on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet and reduces the number of training steps by 50%. Code is available at https://github.com/s-sahoo/MuLAN

We present SURE-Score: an approach for learning score-based generative models using training samples corrupted by additive Gaussian noise. When a large training set of clean samples is available, solving inverse problems via score-based (diffusion) generative models trained on the underlying fully-sampled data distribution has recently been shown to outperform end-to-end supervised deep learning. In practice, such a large collection of training data may be prohibitively expensive to acquire in the first place. In this work, we present an approach for approximately learning a score-based generative model of the clean distribution, from noisy training data. We formulate and justify a novel loss function that leverages Stein's unbiased risk estimate to jointly denoise the data and learn the score function via denoising score matching, while using only the noisy samples. We demonstrate the generality of SURE-Score by learning priors and applying posterior sampling to ill-posed inverse problems in two practical applications from different domains: compressive wireless multiple-input multiple-output channel estimation and accelerated 2D multi-coil magnetic resonance imaging reconstruction, where we demonstrate competitive reconstruction performance when learning at signal-to-noise ratio values of 0 and 10 dB, respectively.

Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference is to initially invest computational cost in training an inference network on simulated data, which can subsequently be used to rapidly perform inference (i.e., to return estimates of posterior distributions) for new observations. This approach has been applied to many real-world models in the sciences and engineering, but it is unclear how robust the approach is to adversarial perturbations in the observed data. Here, we study the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference, focusing on simulation-based estimation of multi-dimensional posterior distributions. We show that almost unrecognizable, targeted perturbations of the observations can lead to drastic changes in the predicted posterior and highly unrealistic posterior predictive samples, across several benchmark tasks and a real-world example from neuroscience. We propose a computationally efficient regularization scheme based on penalizing the Fisher information of the conditional density estimator, and show how it improves the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild differentiability conditions, even works in the intractable case. Our contributions are two-fold. First, we show that a reparameterization of the variational lower bound yields a lower bound estimator that can be straightforwardly optimized using standard stochastic gradient methods. Second, we show that for i.i.d. datasets with continuous latent variables per datapoint, posterior inference can be made especially efficient by fitting an approximate inference model (also called a recognition model) to the intractable posterior using the proposed lower bound estimator. Theoretical advantages are reflected in experimental results.

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when working under multi-party privacy constraints. Many existing approaches resort to approximating the individual sub-posteriors for practical necessity, then find either an analytical approximation or sample approximation of the resulting (product-pooled) posterior. The quality of the posterior approximation for these approaches is poor when the sub-posteriors fall out-with a narrow range of distributional form, such as being approximately Gaussian. Recently, a Fusion approach has been proposed which finds an exact Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, circumventing the drawbacks of approximate approaches. Unfortunately, existing Fusion approaches have a number of computational limitations, particularly when unifying a large number of sub-posteriors. In this paper, we generalise the theory underpinning existing Fusion approaches, and embed the resulting methodology within a recursive divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo paradigm. This ultimately leads to a competitive Fusion approach, which is robust to increasing numbers of sub-posteriors.

Approximate inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with non-conjugate likelihoods gets entangled with the learning of the model hyperparameters. We improve hyperparameter learning in GP models and focus on the interplay between variational inference (VI) and the learning target. While VI's lower bound to the marginal likelihood is a suitable objective for inferring the approximate posterior, we show that a direct approximation of the marginal likelihood as in Expectation Propagation (EP) is a better learning objective for hyperparameter optimization. We design a hybrid training procedure to bring the best of both worlds: it leverages conjugate-computation VI for inference and uses an EP-like marginal likelihood approximation for hyperparameter learning. We compare VI, EP, Laplace approximation, and our proposed training procedure and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal across a wide range of data sets.

Denoisers play a central role in many applications, from noise suppression in low-grade imaging sensors, to empowering score-based generative models. The latter category of methods makes use of Tweedie's formula, which links the posterior mean in Gaussian denoising (\ie the minimum MSE denoiser) with the score of the data distribution. Here, we derive a fundamental relation between the higher-order central moments of the posterior distribution, and the higher-order derivatives of the posterior mean. We harness this result for uncertainty quantification of pre-trained denoisers. Particularly, we show how to efficiently compute the principal components of the posterior distribution for any desired region of an image, as well as to approximate the full marginal distribution along those (or any other) one-dimensional directions. Our method is fast and memory-efficient, as it does not explicitly compute or store the high-order moment tensors and it requires no training or fine tuning of the denoiser. Code and examples are available on the project webpage in https://hilamanor.github.io/GaussianDenoisingPosterior/ .

Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs leverage large-scale machine learning techniques to approximate a large set of posteriors. The only requirement for PFNs to work is the ability to sample from a prior distribution over supervised learning tasks (or functions). Our method restates the objective of posterior approximation as a supervised classification problem with a set-valued input: it repeatedly draws a task (or function) from the prior, draws a set of data points and their labels from it, masks one of the labels and learns to make probabilistic predictions for it based on the set-valued input of the rest of the data points. Presented with a set of samples from a new supervised learning task as input, PFNs make probabilistic predictions for arbitrary other data points in a single forward propagation, having learned to approximate Bayesian inference. We demonstrate that PFNs can near-perfectly mimic Gaussian processes and also enable efficient Bayesian inference for intractable problems, with over 200-fold speedups in multiple setups compared to current methods. We obtain strong results in very diverse areas such as Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural networks, classification for small tabular data sets, and few-shot image classification, demonstrating the generality of PFNs. Code and trained PFNs are released at https://github.com/automl/TransformersCanDoBayesianInference.

This review paper is intended for the 2nd edition of the Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo. We provide an introduction to approximate inference techniques as Bayesian computation methods applied to deep learning models. We organize the chapter by presenting popular computational methods for Bayesian neural networks and deep generative models, explaining their unique challenges in posterior inference as well as the solutions.

Contrastively trained encoders have recently been proven to invert the data-generating process: they encode each input, e.g., an image, into the true latent vector that generated the image (Zimmermann et al., 2021). However, real-world observations often have inherent ambiguities. For instance, images may be blurred or only show a 2D view of a 3D object, so multiple latents could have generated them. This makes the true posterior for the latent vector probabilistic with heteroscedastic uncertainty. In this setup, we extend the common InfoNCE objective and encoders to predict latent distributions instead of points. We prove that these distributions recover the correct posteriors of the data-generating process, including its level of aleatoric uncertainty, up to a rotation of the latent space. In addition to providing calibrated uncertainty estimates, these posteriors allow the computation of credible intervals in image retrieval. They comprise images with the same latent as a given query, subject to its uncertainty. Code is available at https://github.com/mkirchhof/Probabilistic_Contrastive_Learning

Priors are essential for reconstructing images from noisy and/or incomplete measurements. The choice of the prior determines both the quality and uncertainty of recovered images. We propose turning score-based diffusion models into principled image priors ("score-based priors") for analyzing a posterior of images given measurements. Previously, probabilistic priors were limited to handcrafted regularizers and simple distributions. In this work, we empirically validate the theoretically-proven probability function of a score-based diffusion model. We show how to sample from resulting posteriors by using this probability function for variational inference. Our results, including experiments on denoising, deblurring, and interferometric imaging, suggest that score-based priors enable principled inference with a sophisticated, data-driven image prior.

We present the first framework to solve linear inverse problems leveraging pre-trained latent diffusion models. Previously proposed algorithms (such as DPS and DDRM) only apply to pixel-space diffusion models. We theoretically analyze our algorithm showing provable sample recovery in a linear model setting. The algorithmic insight obtained from our analysis extends to more general settings often considered in practice. Experimentally, we outperform previously proposed posterior sampling algorithms in a wide variety of problems including random inpainting, block inpainting, denoising, deblurring, destriping, and super-resolution.

Recent studies on inverse problems have proposed posterior samplers that leverage the pre-trained diffusion models as powerful priors. These attempts have paved the way for using diffusion models in a wide range of inverse problems. However, the existing methods entail computationally demanding iterative sampling procedures and optimize a separate solution for each measurement, which leads to limited scalability and lack of generalization capability across unseen samples. To address these limitations, we propose a novel approach, Diffusion prior-based Amortized Variational Inference (DAVI) that solves inverse problems with a diffusion prior from an amortized variational inference perspective. Specifically, instead of separate measurement-wise optimization, our amortized inference learns a function that directly maps measurements to the implicit posterior distributions of corresponding clean data, enabling a single-step posterior sampling even for unseen measurements. Extensive experiments on image restoration tasks, e.g., Gaussian deblur, 4times super-resolution, and box inpainting with two benchmark datasets, demonstrate our approach's superior performance over strong baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/mlvlab/DAVI.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

The distribution of the weights of modern deep neural networks (DNNs) - crucial for uncertainty quantification and robustness - is an eminently complex object due to its extremely high dimensionality. This paper proposes one of the first large-scale explorations of the posterior distribution of deep Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), expanding its study to real-world vision tasks and architectures. Specifically, we investigate the optimal approach for approximating the posterior, analyze the connection between posterior quality and uncertainty quantification, delve into the impact of modes on the posterior, and explore methods for visualizing the posterior. Moreover, we uncover weight-space symmetries as a critical aspect for understanding the posterior. To this extent, we develop an in-depth assessment of the impact of both permutation and scaling symmetries that tend to obfuscate the Bayesian posterior. While the first type of transformation is known for duplicating modes, we explore the relationship between the latter and L2 regularization, challenging previous misconceptions. Finally, to help the community improve our understanding of the Bayesian posterior, we will shortly release the first large-scale checkpoint dataset, including thousands of real-world models and our codes.

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex multimodal and correlated posteriors in high-dimensional spaces. Our approach introduces novel bounds for approximate inference using implicit distributions by locally linearising the neural sampler. This is distinct from existing methods that rely on additional discriminator networks and unstable adversarial objectives. Furthermore, we present a new sampler architecture that, for the first time, enables implicit distributions over tens of millions of latent variables, addressing computational concerns by using differentiable numerical approximations. We empirically show that our method is capable of recovering correlations across layers in large Bayesian neural networks, a property that is crucial for a network's performance but notoriously challenging to achieve. To the best of our knowledge, no other method has been shown to accomplish this task for such large models. Through experiments in downstream tasks, we demonstrate that our expressive posteriors outperform state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, validating the effectiveness of our training algorithm and the quality of the learned implicit approximation.

Bayesian optimization (BO) has established itself as a leading strategy for efficiently optimizing expensive-to-evaluate functions. Existing BO methods mostly rely on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models and are not applicable to (doubly-stochastic) Gaussian Cox processes, where the observation process is modulated by a latent intensity function modeled as a GP. In this paper, we propose a novel maximum a posteriori inference of Gaussian Cox processes. It leverages the Laplace approximation and change of kernel technique to transform the problem into a new reproducing kernel Hilbert space, where it becomes more tractable computationally. It enables us to obtain both a functional posterior of the latent intensity function and the covariance of the posterior, thus extending existing works that often focus on specific link functions or estimating the posterior mean. Using the result, we propose a BO framework based on the Gaussian Cox process model and further develop a Nystr\"om approximation for efficient computation. Extensive evaluations on various synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvement over state-of-the-art inference solutions for Gaussian Cox processes, as well as effective BO with a wide range of acquisition functions designed through the underlying Gaussian Cox process model.

To achieve scalable and accurate inference for latent Gaussian processes, we propose a variational approximation based on a family of Gaussian distributions whose covariance matrices have sparse inverse Cholesky (SIC) factors. We combine this variational approximation of the posterior with a similar and efficient SIC-restricted Kullback-Leibler-optimal approximation of the prior. We then focus on a particular SIC ordering and nearest-neighbor-based sparsity pattern resulting in highly accurate prior and posterior approximations. For this setting, our variational approximation can be computed via stochastic gradient descent in polylogarithmic time per iteration. We provide numerical comparisons showing that the proposed double-Kullback-Leibler-optimal Gaussian-process approximation (DKLGP) can sometimes be vastly more accurate for stationary kernels than alternative approaches such as inducing-point and mean-field approximations at similar computational complexity.

While recent advancements in large multimodal models (LMMs) have significantly improved their abilities in image quality assessment (IQA) relying on absolute quality rating, how to transfer reliable relative quality comparison outputs to continuous perceptual quality scores remains largely unexplored. To address this gap, we introduce Compare2Score-an all-around LMM-based no-reference IQA (NR-IQA) model, which is capable of producing qualitatively comparative responses and effectively translating these discrete comparative levels into a continuous quality score. Specifically, during training, we present to generate scaled-up comparative instructions by comparing images from the same IQA dataset, allowing for more flexible integration of diverse IQA datasets. Utilizing the established large-scale training corpus, we develop a human-like visual quality comparator. During inference, moving beyond binary choices, we propose a soft comparison method that calculates the likelihood of the test image being preferred over multiple predefined anchor images. The quality score is further optimized by maximum a posteriori estimation with the resulting probability matrix. Extensive experiments on nine IQA datasets validate that the Compare2Score effectively bridges text-defined comparative levels during training with converted single image quality score for inference, surpassing state-of-the-art IQA models across diverse scenarios. Moreover, we verify that the probability-matrix-based inference conversion not only improves the rating accuracy of Compare2Score but also zero-shot general-purpose LMMs, suggesting its intrinsic effectiveness.

Variational inference is becoming more and more popular for approximating intractable posterior distributions in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. Meanwhile, a few recent works have provided theoretical justification and new insights on deep neural networks for estimating smooth functions in usual settings such as nonparametric regression. In this paper, we show that variational inference for sparse deep learning retains the same generalization properties than exact Bayesian inference. In particular, we highlight the connection between estimation and approximation theories via the classical bias-variance trade-off and show that it leads to near-minimax rates of convergence for H\"older smooth functions. Additionally, we show that the model selection framework over the neural network architecture via ELBO maximization does not overfit and adaptively achieves the optimal rate of convergence.

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However, existing methods are often computationally expensive, or demand costly retraining when priors change, limiting their utility, particularly in sequential inference problems such as real-time sensor fusion. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distribution Transformer -- a novel architecture that can learn arbitrary distribution-to-distribution mappings. Our method can be trained to map a prior to the corresponding posterior, conditioned on some dataset -- thus performing approximate Bayesian inference. Our novel architecture represents a prior distribution as a (universally-approximating) Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and transforms it into a GMM representation of the posterior. The components of the GMM attend to each other via self-attention, and to the datapoints via cross-attention. We demonstrate that Distribution Transformers both maintain flexibility to vary the prior, and significantly reduces computation times-from minutes to milliseconds-while achieving log-likelihood performance on par with or superior to existing approximate inference methods across tasks such as sequential inference, quantum system parameter inference, and Gaussian Process predictive posterior inference with hyperpriors.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models, variational inference (VI) is often the preferable option. Unfortunately, VI makes strong assumptions on both the factorization and functional form of the posterior. In this work, we propose a new non-parametric variational approximation that makes no assumptions about the approximate posterior's functional form and allows practitioners to specify the exact dependencies the algorithm should respect or break. The approach relies on a new Langevin-type algorithm that operates on a modified energy function, where parts of the latent variables are averaged over samples from earlier iterations of the Markov chain. This way, statistical dependencies can be broken in a controlled way, allowing the chain to mix faster. This scheme can be further modified in a "dropout" manner, leading to even more scalability. We test our scheme for ResNet-20 on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and FMNIST. In all cases, we find improvements in convergence speed and/or final accuracy compared to SG-MCMC and VI.

Diffusion models have been recently studied as powerful generative inverse problem solvers, owing to their high quality reconstructions and the ease of combining existing iterative solvers. However, most works focus on solving simple linear inverse problems in noiseless settings, which significantly under-represents the complexity of real-world problems. In this work, we extend diffusion solvers to efficiently handle general noisy (non)linear inverse problems via approximation of the posterior sampling. Interestingly, the resulting posterior sampling scheme is a blended version of diffusion sampling with the manifold constrained gradient without a strict measurement consistency projection step, yielding a more desirable generative path in noisy settings compared to the previous studies. Our method demonstrates that diffusion models can incorporate various measurement noise statistics such as Gaussian and Poisson, and also efficiently handle noisy nonlinear inverse problems such as Fourier phase retrieval and non-uniform deblurring. Code available at https://github.com/DPS2022/diffusion-posterior-sampling

In this work, we initiate the idea of using denoising diffusion models to learn priors for online decision making problems. Our special focus is on the meta-learning for bandit framework, with the goal of learning a strategy that performs well across bandit tasks of a same class. To this end, we train a diffusion model that learns the underlying task distribution and combine Thompson sampling with the learned prior to deal with new tasks at test time. Our posterior sampling algorithm is designed to carefully balance between the learned prior and the noisy observations that come from the learner's interaction with the environment. To capture realistic bandit scenarios, we also propose a novel diffusion model training procedure that trains even from incomplete and/or noisy data, which could be of independent interest. Finally, our extensive experimental evaluations clearly demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

Image restoration problems are typically ill-posed in the sense that each degraded image can be restored in infinitely many valid ways. To accommodate this, many works generate a diverse set of outputs by attempting to randomly sample from the posterior distribution of natural images given the degraded input. Here we argue that this strategy is commonly of limited practical value because of the heavy tail of the posterior distribution. Consider for example inpainting a missing region of the sky in an image. Since there is a high probability that the missing region contains no object but clouds, any set of samples from the posterior would be entirely dominated by (practically identical) completions of sky. However, arguably, presenting users with only one clear sky completion, along with several alternative solutions such as airships, birds, and balloons, would better outline the set of possibilities. In this paper, we initiate the study of meaningfully diverse image restoration. We explore several post-processing approaches that can be combined with any diverse image restoration method to yield semantically meaningful diversity. Moreover, we propose a practical approach for allowing diffusion based image restoration methods to generate meaningfully diverse outputs, while incurring only negligent computational overhead. We conduct extensive user studies to analyze the proposed techniques, and find the strategy of reducing similarity between outputs to be significantly favorable over posterior sampling. Code and examples are available at https://noa-cohen.github.io/MeaningfulDiversityInIR.

We consider the stochastic linear contextual bandit problem with high-dimensional features. We analyze the Thompson sampling algorithm using special classes of sparsity-inducing priors (e.g., spike-and-slab) to model the unknown parameter and provide a nearly optimal upper bound on the expected cumulative regret. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that provides theoretical guarantees of Thompson sampling in high-dimensional and sparse contextual bandits. For faster computation, we use variational inference instead of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate the posterior distribution. Extensive simulations demonstrate the improved performance of our proposed algorithm over existing ones.

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.

This paper proposes a new type of generative model that is able to quickly learn a latent representation without an encoder. This is achieved using empirical Bayes to calculate the expectation of the posterior, which is implemented by initialising a latent vector with zeros, then using the gradient of the log-likelihood of the data with respect to this zero vector as new latent points. The approach has similar characteristics to autoencoders, but with a simpler architecture, and is demonstrated in a variational autoencoder equivalent that permits sampling. This also allows implicit representation networks to learn a space of implicit functions without requiring a hypernetwork, retaining their representation advantages across datasets. The experiments show that the proposed method converges faster, with significantly lower reconstruction error than autoencoders, while requiring half the parameters.

We present a novel stochastic variational Gaussian process (GP) inference method, based on a posterior over a learnable set of weighted pseudo input-output points (coresets). Instead of a free-form variational family, the proposed coreset-based, variational tempered family for GPs (CVTGP) is defined in terms of the GP prior and the data-likelihood; hence, accommodating the modeling inductive biases. We derive CVTGP's lower bound for the log-marginal likelihood via marginalization of the proposed posterior over latent GP coreset variables, and show it is amenable to stochastic optimization. CVTGP reduces the learnable parameter size to O(M), enjoys numerical stability, and maintains O(M^3) time- and O(M^2) space-complexity, by leveraging a coreset-based tempered posterior that, in turn, provides sparse and explainable representations of the data. Results on simulated and real-world regression problems with Gaussian observation noise validate that CVTGP provides better evidence lower-bound estimates and predictive root mean squared error than alternative stochastic GP inference methods.

Sequential learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is challenging when access to past data is limited, for example, in continual and active learning. In such cases, errors can accumulate over time due to inaccuracies in the posterior, hyperparameters, and inducing points, making accurate learning challenging. Here, we present a method to keep all such errors in check using the recently proposed dual sparse variational GP. Our method enables accurate inference for generic likelihoods and improves learning by actively building and updating a memory of past data. We demonstrate its effectiveness in several applications involving Bayesian optimization, active learning, and continual learning.

The variational autoencoder (VAE; Kingma, Welling (2014)) is a recently proposed generative model pairing a top-down generative network with a bottom-up recognition network which approximates posterior inference. It typically makes strong assumptions about posterior inference, for instance that the posterior distribution is approximately factorial, and that its parameters can be approximated with nonlinear regression from the observations. As we show empirically, the VAE objective can lead to overly simplified representations which fail to use the network's entire modeling capacity. We present the importance weighted autoencoder (IWAE), a generative model with the same architecture as the VAE, but which uses a strictly tighter log-likelihood lower bound derived from importance weighting. In the IWAE, the recognition network uses multiple samples to approximate the posterior, giving it increased flexibility to model complex posteriors which do not fit the VAE modeling assumptions. We show empirically that IWAEs learn richer latent space representations than VAEs, leading to improved test log-likelihood on density estimation benchmarks.

Diffusion models have emerged as a key pillar of foundation models in visual domains. One of their critical applications is to universally solve different downstream inverse tasks via a single diffusion prior without re-training for each task. Most inverse tasks can be formulated as inferring a posterior distribution over data (e.g., a full image) given a measurement (e.g., a masked image). This is however challenging in diffusion models since the nonlinear and iterative nature of the diffusion process renders the posterior intractable. To cope with this challenge, we propose a variational approach that by design seeks to approximate the true posterior distribution. We show that our approach naturally leads to regularization by denoising diffusion process (RED-Diff) where denoisers at different timesteps concurrently impose different structural constraints over the image. To gauge the contribution of denoisers from different timesteps, we propose a weighting mechanism based on signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR). Our approach provides a new variational perspective for solving inverse problems with diffusion models, allowing us to formulate sampling as stochastic optimization, where one can simply apply off-the-shelf solvers with lightweight iterates. Our experiments for image restoration tasks such as inpainting and superresolution demonstrate the strengths of our method compared with state-of-the-art sampling-based diffusion models.

The Bayesian treatment of neural networks dictates that a prior distribution is specified over their weight and bias parameters. This poses a challenge because modern neural networks are characterized by a large number of parameters, and the choice of these priors has an uncontrolled effect on the induced functional prior, which is the distribution of the functions obtained by sampling the parameters from their prior distribution. We argue that this is a hugely limiting aspect of Bayesian deep learning, and this work tackles this limitation in a practical and effective way. Our proposal is to reason in terms of functional priors, which are easier to elicit, and to "tune" the priors of neural network parameters in a way that they reflect such functional priors. Gaussian processes offer a rigorous framework to define prior distributions over functions, and we propose a novel and robust framework to match their prior with the functional prior of neural networks based on the minimization of their Wasserstein distance. We provide vast experimental evidence that coupling these priors with scalable Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling offers systematically large performance improvements over alternative choices of priors and state-of-the-art approximate Bayesian deep learning approaches. We consider this work a considerable step in the direction of making the long-standing challenge of carrying out a fully Bayesian treatment of neural networks, including convolutional neural networks, a concrete possibility.

Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables (BNN+LVs) capture predictive uncertainty by explicitly modeling model uncertainty (via priors on network weights) and environmental stochasticity (via a latent input noise variable). In this work, we first show that BNN+LV suffers from a serious form of non-identifiability: explanatory power can be transferred between the model parameters and latent variables while fitting the data equally well. We demonstrate that as a result, in the limit of infinite data, the posterior mode over the network weights and latent variables is asymptotically biased away from the ground-truth. Due to this asymptotic bias, traditional inference methods may in practice yield parameters that generalize poorly and misestimate uncertainty. Next, we develop a novel inference procedure that explicitly mitigates the effects of likelihood non-identifiability during training and yields high-quality predictions as well as uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that our inference method improves upon benchmark methods across a range of synthetic and real data-sets.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

Approximations to Gaussian processes based on inducing variables, combined with variational inference techniques, enable state-of-the-art sparse approaches to infer GPs at scale through mini batch-based learning. In this work, we address one limitation of sparse GPs, which is due to the challenge in dealing with a large number of inducing variables without imposing a special structure on the inducing inputs. In particular, we introduce a novel hierarchical prior, which imposes sparsity on the set of inducing variables. We treat our model variationally, and we experimentally show considerable computational gains compared to standard sparse GPs when sparsity on the inducing variables is realized considering the nearest inducing inputs of a random mini-batch of the data. We perform an extensive experimental validation that demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach compared to the state-of-the-art. Our approach enables the possibility to use sparse GPs using a large number of inducing points without incurring a prohibitive computational cost.

Accelerated magnetic resonance (MR) imaging attempts to reduce acquisition time by collecting data below the Nyquist rate. As an ill-posed inverse problem, many plausible solutions exist, yet the majority of deep learning approaches generate only a single solution. We instead focus on sampling from the posterior distribution, which provides more comprehensive information for downstream inference tasks. To do this, we design a novel conditional normalizing flow (CNF) that infers the signal component in the measurement operator's nullspace, which is later combined with measured data to form complete images. Using fastMRI brain and knee data, we demonstrate fast inference and accuracy that surpasses recent posterior sampling techniques for MRI. Code is available at https://github.com/jwen307/mri_cnf/

Posterior sampling, i.e., exponential mechanism to sample from the posterior distribution, provides varepsilon-pure differential privacy (DP) guarantees and does not suffer from potentially unbounded privacy breach introduced by (varepsilon,delta)-approximate DP. In practice, however, one needs to apply approximate sampling methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), thus re-introducing the unappealing delta-approximation error into the privacy guarantees. To bridge this gap, we propose the Approximate SAample Perturbation (abbr. ASAP) algorithm which perturbs an MCMC sample with noise proportional to its Wasserstein-infinity (W_infty) distance from a reference distribution that satisfies pure DP or pure Gaussian DP (i.e., delta=0). We then leverage a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to generate the sample and prove that the algorithm converges in W_infty distance. We show that by combining our new techniques with a careful localization step, we obtain the first nearly linear-time algorithm that achieves the optimal rates in the DP-ERM problem with strongly convex and smooth losses.

Photo-realistic image restoration algorithms are typically evaluated by distortion measures (e.g., PSNR, SSIM) and by perceptual quality measures (e.g., FID, NIQE), where the desire is to attain the lowest possible distortion without compromising on perceptual quality. To achieve this goal, current methods typically attempt to sample from the posterior distribution, or to optimize a weighted sum of a distortion loss (e.g., MSE) and a perceptual quality loss (e.g., GAN). Unlike previous works, this paper is concerned specifically with the optimal estimator that minimizes the MSE under a constraint of perfect perceptual index, namely where the distribution of the reconstructed images is equal to that of the ground-truth ones. A recent theoretical result shows that such an estimator can be constructed by optimally transporting the posterior mean prediction (MMSE estimate) to the distribution of the ground-truth images. Inspired by this result, we introduce Posterior-Mean Rectified Flow (PMRF), a simple yet highly effective algorithm that approximates this optimal estimator. In particular, PMRF first predicts the posterior mean, and then transports the result to a high-quality image using a rectified flow model that approximates the desired optimal transport map. We investigate the theoretical utility of PMRF and demonstrate that it consistently outperforms previous methods on a variety of image restoration tasks.

The successes of modern deep machine learning methods are founded on their ability to transform inputs across multiple layers to build good high-level representations. It is therefore critical to understand this process of representation learning. However, standard theoretical approaches (formally NNGPs) involving infinite width limits eliminate representation learning. We therefore develop a new infinite width limit, the Bayesian representation learning limit, that exhibits representation learning mirroring that in finite-width models, yet at the same time, retains some of the simplicity of standard infinite-width limits. In particular, we show that Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) in the Bayesian representation learning limit have exactly multivariate Gaussian posteriors, and the posterior covariances can be obtained by optimizing an interpretable objective combining a log-likelihood to improve performance with a series of KL-divergences which keep the posteriors close to the prior. We confirm these results experimentally in wide but finite DGPs. Next, we introduce the possibility of using this limit and objective as a flexible, deep generalisation of kernel methods, that we call deep kernel machines (DKMs). Like most naive kernel methods, DKMs scale cubically in the number of datapoints. We therefore use methods from the Gaussian process inducing point literature to develop a sparse DKM that scales linearly in the number of datapoints. Finally, we extend these approaches to NNs (which have non-Gaussian posteriors) in the Appendices.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

Tucker decomposition is a powerful tensor model to handle multi-aspect data. It demonstrates the low-rank property by decomposing the grid-structured data as interactions between a core tensor and a set of object representations (factors). A fundamental assumption of such decomposition is that there are finite objects in each aspect or mode, corresponding to discrete indexes of data entries. However, real-world data is often not naturally posed in this setting. For example, geographic data is represented as continuous indexes of latitude and longitude coordinates, and cannot fit tensor models directly. To generalize Tucker decomposition to such scenarios, we propose Functional Bayesian Tucker Decomposition (FunBaT). We treat the continuous-indexed data as the interaction between the Tucker core and a group of latent functions. We use Gaussian processes (GP) as functional priors to model the latent functions. Then, we convert each GP into a state-space prior by constructing an equivalent stochastic differential equation (SDE) to reduce computational cost. An efficient inference algorithm is developed for scalable posterior approximation based on advanced message-passing techniques. The advantage of our method is shown in both synthetic data and several real-world applications. We release the code of FunBaT at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Functional-Bayesian-Tucker-Decomposition.

Solving ill-posed inverse problems requires careful formulation of prior beliefs over the signals of interest and an accurate description of their manifestation into noisy measurements. Handcrafted signal priors based on e.g. sparsity are increasingly replaced by data-driven deep generative models, and several groups have recently shown that state-of-the-art score-based diffusion models yield particularly strong performance and flexibility. In this paper, we show that the powerful paradigm of posterior sampling with diffusion models can be extended to include rich, structured, noise models. To that end, we propose a joint conditional reverse diffusion process with learned scores for the noise and signal-generating distribution. We demonstrate strong performance gains across various inverse problems with structured noise, outperforming competitive baselines that use normalizing flows and adversarial networks. This opens up new opportunities and relevant practical applications of diffusion modeling for inverse problems in the context of non-Gaussian measurement models.

Bayesian filtering approximates the true underlying behavior of a time-varying system by inverting an explicit generative model to convert noisy measurements into state estimates. This process typically requires either storage, inversion, and multiplication of large matrices or Monte Carlo estimation, neither of which are practical in high-dimensional state spaces such as the weight spaces of artificial neural networks. Here, we frame the standard Bayesian filtering problem as optimization over a time-varying objective. Instead of maintaining matrices for the filtering equations or simulating particles, we specify an optimizer that defines the Bayesian filter implicitly. In the linear-Gaussian setting, we show that every Kalman filter has an equivalent formulation using K steps of gradient descent. In the nonlinear setting, our experiments demonstrate that our framework results in filters that are effective, robust, and scalable to high-dimensional systems, comparing well against the standard toolbox of Bayesian filtering solutions. We suggest that it is easier to fine-tune an optimizer than it is to specify the correct filtering equations, making our framework an attractive option for high-dimensional filtering problems.

We study the behavior of deterministic methods for solving inverse problems in imaging. These methods are commonly designed to achieve two goals: (1) attaining high perceptual quality, and (2) generating reconstructions that are consistent with the measurements. We provide a rigorous proof that the better a predictor satisfies these two requirements, the larger its Lipschitz constant must be, regardless of the nature of the degradation involved. In particular, to approach perfect perceptual quality and perfect consistency, the Lipschitz constant of the model must grow to infinity. This implies that such methods are necessarily more susceptible to adversarial attacks. We demonstrate our theory on single image super-resolution algorithms, addressing both noisy and noiseless settings. We also show how this undesired behavior can be leveraged to explore the posterior distribution, thereby allowing the deterministic model to imitate stochastic methods.

Dirichlet Process mixture models (DPMM) in combination with Gaussian kernels have been an important modeling tool for numerous data domains arising from biological, physical, and social sciences. However, this versatility in applications does not extend to strong theoretical guarantees for the underlying parameter estimates, for which only a logarithmic rate is achieved. In this work, we (re)introduce and investigate a metric, named Orlicz-Wasserstein distance, in the study of the Bayesian contraction behavior for the parameters. We show that despite the overall slow convergence guarantees for all the parameters, posterior contraction for parameters happens at almost polynomial rates in outlier regions of the parameter space. Our theoretical results provide new insight in understanding the convergence behavior of parameters arising from various settings of hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models. In addition, we provide an algorithm to compute the metric by leveraging Sinkhorn divergences and validate our findings through a simulation study.

Recently, partial Bayesian neural networks (pBNNs), which only consider a subset of the parameters to be stochastic, were shown to perform competitively with full Bayesian neural networks. However, pBNNs are often multi-modal in the latent-variable space and thus challenging to approximate with parametric models. To address this problem, we propose an efficient sampling-based training strategy, wherein the training of a pBNN is formulated as simulating a Feynman--Kac model. We then describe variations of sequential Monte Carlo samplers that allow us to simultaneously estimate the parameters and the latent posterior distribution of this model at a tractable computational cost. We show on various synthetic and real-world datasets that our proposed training scheme outperforms the state of the art in terms of predictive performance.

To minimize the average of a set of log-convex functions, the stochastic Newton method iteratively updates its estimate using subsampled versions of the full objective's gradient and Hessian. We contextualize this optimization problem as sequential Bayesian inference on a latent state-space model with a discriminatively-specified observation process. Applying Bayesian filtering then yields a novel optimization algorithm that considers the entire history of gradients and Hessians when forming an update. We establish matrix-based conditions under which the effect of older observations diminishes over time, in a manner analogous to Polyak's heavy ball momentum. We illustrate various aspects of our approach with an example and review other relevant innovations for the stochastic Newton method.

Multitarget Tracking (MTT) is the problem of tracking the states of an unknown number of objects using noisy measurements, with important applications to autonomous driving, surveillance, robotics, and others. In the model-based Bayesian setting, there are conjugate priors that enable us to express the multi-object posterior in closed form, which could theoretically provide Bayes-optimal estimates. However, the posterior involves a super-exponential growth of the number of hypotheses over time, forcing state-of-the-art methods to resort to approximations for remaining tractable, which can impact their performance in complex scenarios. Model-free methods based on deep-learning provide an attractive alternative, as they can, in principle, learn the optimal filter from data, but to the best of our knowledge were never compared to current state-of-the-art Bayesian filters, specially not in contexts where accurate models are available. In this paper, we propose a high-performing deep-learning method for MTT based on the Transformer architecture and compare it to two state-of-the-art Bayesian filters, in a setting where we assume the correct model is provided. Although this gives an edge to the model-based filters, it also allows us to generate unlimited training data. We show that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art Bayesian filters in complex scenarios, while matching their performance in simpler cases, which validates the applicability of deep-learning also in the model-based regime. The code for all our implementations is made available at https://github.com/JulianoLagana/MT3 .

Posterior sampling allows the exploitation of prior knowledge of the environment's transition dynamics to improve the sample efficiency of reinforcement learning. The prior is typically specified as a class of parametric distributions, a task that can be cumbersome in practice, often resulting in the choice of uninformative priors. In this work, we propose a novel posterior sampling approach in which the prior is given as a (partial) causal graph over the environment's variables. The latter is often more natural to design, such as listing known causal dependencies between biometric features in a medical treatment study. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian procedure, called C-PSRL, simultaneously learning the full causal graph at the higher level and the parameters of the resulting factored dynamics at the lower level. For this procedure, we provide an analysis of its Bayesian regret, which explicitly connects the regret rate with the degree of prior knowledge. Our numerical evaluation conducted in illustrative domains confirms that C-PSRL strongly improves the efficiency of posterior sampling with an uninformative prior while performing close to posterior sampling with the full causal graph.

Real-world single image denoising is crucial and practical in computer vision. Bayesian inversions combined with score priors now have proven effective for single image denoising but are limited to white Gaussian noise. Moreover, applying existing score-based methods for real-world denoising requires not only the explicit train of score priors on the target domain but also the careful design of sampling procedures for posterior inference, which is complicated and impractical. To address these limitations, we propose a score priors-guided deep variational inference, namely ScoreDVI, for practical real-world denoising. By considering the deep variational image posterior with a Gaussian form, score priors are extracted based on easily accessible minimum MSE Non-i.i.d Gaussian denoisers and variational samples, which in turn facilitate optimizing the variational image posterior. Such a procedure adaptively applies cheap score priors to denoising. Additionally, we exploit a Non-i.i.d Gaussian mixture model and variational noise posterior to model the real-world noise. This scheme also enables the pixel-wise fusion of multiple image priors and variational image posteriors. Besides, we develop a noise-aware prior assignment strategy that dynamically adjusts the weight of image priors in the optimization. Our method outperforms other single image-based real-world denoising methods and achieves comparable performance to dataset-based unsupervised methods.

Bayesian optimization is an approach to optimizing objective functions that take a long time (minutes or hours) to evaluate. It is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20 dimensions, and tolerates stochastic noise in function evaluations. It builds a surrogate for the objective and quantifies the uncertainty in that surrogate using a Bayesian machine learning technique, Gaussian process regression, and then uses an acquisition function defined from this surrogate to decide where to sample. In this tutorial, we describe how Bayesian optimization works, including Gaussian process regression and three common acquisition functions: expected improvement, entropy search, and knowledge gradient. We then discuss more advanced techniques, including running multiple function evaluations in parallel, multi-fidelity and multi-information source optimization, expensive-to-evaluate constraints, random environmental conditions, multi-task Bayesian optimization, and the inclusion of derivative information. We conclude with a discussion of Bayesian optimization software and future research directions in the field. Within our tutorial material we provide a generalization of expected improvement to noisy evaluations, beyond the noise-free setting where it is more commonly applied. This generalization is justified by a formal decision-theoretic argument, standing in contrast to previous ad hoc modifications.

We propose a Monte Carlo sampler from the reverse diffusion process. Unlike the practice of diffusion models, where the intermediary updates -- the score functions -- are learned with a neural network, we transform the score matching problem into a mean estimation one. By estimating the means of the regularized posterior distributions, we derive a novel Monte Carlo sampling algorithm called reverse diffusion Monte Carlo (rdMC), which is distinct from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We determine the sample size from the error tolerance and the properties of the posterior distribution to yield an algorithm that can approximately sample the target distribution with any desired accuracy. Additionally, we demonstrate and prove under suitable conditions that sampling with rdMC can be significantly faster than that with MCMC. For multi-modal target distributions such as those in Gaussian mixture models, rdMC greatly improves over the Langevin-style MCMC sampling methods both theoretically and in practice. The proposed rdMC method offers a new perspective and solution beyond classical MCMC algorithms for the challenging complex distributions.

Variational inference (VI) seeks to approximate a target distribution pi by an element of a tractable family of distributions. Of key interest in statistics and machine learning is Gaussian VI, which approximates pi by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to pi over the space of Gaussians. In this work, we develop the (Stochastic) Forward-Backward Gaussian Variational Inference (FB-GVI) algorithm to solve Gaussian VI. Our approach exploits the composite structure of the KL divergence, which can be written as the sum of a smooth term (the potential) and a non-smooth term (the entropy) over the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) space of Gaussians endowed with the Wasserstein distance. For our proposed algorithm, we obtain state-of-the-art convergence guarantees when pi is log-smooth and log-concave, as well as the first convergence guarantees to first-order stationary solutions when pi is only log-smooth.

Maximizing the log-likelihood is a crucial aspect of learning latent variable models, and variational inference (VI) stands as the commonly adopted method. However, VI can encounter challenges in achieving a high log-likelihood when dealing with complicated posterior distributions. In response to this limitation, we introduce a novel variational importance sampling (VIS) approach that directly estimates and maximizes the log-likelihood. VIS leverages the optimal proposal distribution, achieved by minimizing the forward chi^2 divergence, to enhance log-likelihood estimation. We apply VIS to various popular latent variable models, including mixture models, variational auto-encoders, and partially observable generalized linear models. Results demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, both in terms of log-likelihood and model parameter estimation.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

In recent years, particle-based variational inference (ParVI) methods such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) have grown in popularity as scalable methods for Bayesian inference. Unfortunately, the properties of such methods invariably depend on hyperparameters such as the learning rate, which must be carefully tuned by the practitioner in order to ensure convergence to the target measure at a suitable rate. In this paper, we introduce a suite of new particle-based methods for scalable Bayesian inference based on coin betting, which are entirely learning-rate free. We illustrate the performance of our approach on a range of numerical examples, including several high-dimensional models and datasets, demonstrating comparable performance to other ParVI algorithms with no need to tune a learning rate.

We generalise an existing construction of Bayesian Lenses to admit lenses between pairs of objects where the backwards object is dependent on states on the forwards object (interpreted as probability distributions). This gives a natural setting for studying stochastic maps with Bayesian inverses restricted to the points supported by a given prior. In order to state this formally we develop a proposed definition by Fritz of a support object in a Markov category and show that these give rise to a section into the category of dependent Bayesian lenses encoding a more canonical notion of Bayesian inversion.

Inspired by the foundational works by Spivak and Fong and Cruttwell et al., we introduce a categorical framework to formalize Bayesian inference and learning. The two key ideas at play here are the notions of Bayesian inversions and the functor GL as constructed by Cruttwell et al.. In this context, we find that Bayesian learning is the simplest case of the learning paradigm. We then obtain categorical formulations of batch and sequential Bayes updates while also verifying that the two coincide in a specific example.

Bayesian optimization is a highly efficient approach to optimizing objective functions which are expensive to query. These objectives are typically represented by Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models which are easy to optimize and support exact inference. While standard GP surrogates have been well-established in Bayesian optimization, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently become practical function approximators, with many benefits over standard GPs such as the ability to naturally handle non-stationarity and learn representations for high-dimensional data. In this paper, we study BNNs as alternatives to standard GP surrogates for optimization. We consider a variety of approximate inference procedures for finite-width BNNs, including high-quality Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, low-cost stochastic MCMC, and heuristics such as deep ensembles. We also consider infinite-width BNNs and partially stochastic models such as deep kernel learning. We evaluate this collection of surrogate models on diverse problems with varying dimensionality, number of objectives, non-stationarity, and discrete and continuous inputs. We find: (i) the ranking of methods is highly problem dependent, suggesting the need for tailored inductive biases; (ii) HMC is the most successful approximate inference procedure for fully stochastic BNNs; (iii) full stochasticity may be unnecessary as deep kernel learning is relatively competitive; (iv) infinite-width BNNs are particularly promising, especially in high dimensions.

Latent Gaussian process (GP) models are widely used in neuroscience to uncover hidden state evolutions from sequential observations, mainly in neural activity recordings. While latent GP models provide a principled and powerful solution in theory, the intractable posterior in non-conjugate settings necessitates approximate inference schemes, which may lack scalability. In this work, we propose cvHM, a general inference framework for latent GP models leveraging Hida-Mat\'ern kernels and conjugate computation variational inference (CVI). With cvHM, we are able to perform variational inference of latent neural trajectories with linear time complexity for arbitrary likelihoods. The reparameterization of stationary kernels using Hida-Mat\'ern GPs helps us connect the latent variable models that encode prior assumptions through dynamical systems to those that encode trajectory assumptions through GPs. In contrast to previous work, we use bidirectional information filtering, leading to a more concise implementation. Furthermore, we employ the Whittle approximate likelihood to achieve highly efficient hyperparameter learning.

Bayesian approaches for learning deep neural networks (BNN) have been received much attention and successfully applied to various applications. Particularly, BNNs have the merit of having better generalization ability as well as better uncertainty quantification. For the success of BNN, search an appropriate architecture of the neural networks is an important task, and various algorithms to find good sparse neural networks have been proposed. In this paper, we propose a new node-sparse BNN model which has good theoretical properties and is computationally feasible. We prove that the posterior concentration rate to the true model is near minimax optimal and adaptive to the smoothness of the true model. In particular the adaptiveness is the first of its kind for node-sparse BNNs. In addition, we develop a novel MCMC algorithm which makes the Bayesian inference of the node-sparse BNN model feasible in practice.

A key advance in learning generative models is the use of amortized inference distributions that are jointly trained with the models. We find that existing training objectives for variational autoencoders can lead to inaccurate amortized inference distributions and, in some cases, improving the objective provably degrades the inference quality. In addition, it has been observed that variational autoencoders tend to ignore the latent variables when combined with a decoding distribution that is too flexible. We again identify the cause in existing training criteria and propose a new class of objectives (InfoVAE) that mitigate these problems. We show that our model can significantly improve the quality of the variational posterior and can make effective use of the latent features regardless of the flexibility of the decoding distribution. Through extensive qualitative and quantitative analyses, we demonstrate that our models outperform competing approaches on multiple performance metrics.

Score-based Generative Models (SGMs) have achieved state-of-the-art synthesis results on diverse tasks. However, the current design space of the forward diffusion process is largely unexplored and often relies on physical intuition or simplifying assumptions. Leveraging results from the design of scalable Bayesian posterior samplers, we present a complete recipe for constructing forward processes in SGMs, all of which are guaranteed to converge to the target distribution of interest. We show that several existing SGMs can be cast as specific instantiations of this parameterization. Furthermore, building on this recipe, we construct a novel SGM: Phase Space Langevin Diffusion (PSLD), which performs score-based modeling in a space augmented with auxiliary variables akin to a physical phase space. We show that PSLD outperforms competing baselines in terms of sample quality and the speed-vs-quality tradeoff across different samplers on various standard image synthesis benchmarks. Moreover, we show that PSLD achieves sample quality comparable to state-of-the-art SGMs (FID: 2.10 on unconditional CIFAR-10 generation), providing an attractive alternative as an SGM backbone for further development. We will publish our code and model checkpoints for reproducibility at https://github.com/mandt-lab/PSLD.

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

We describe nonparametric deconvolution models (NDMs), a family of Bayesian nonparametric models for collections of data in which each observation is the average over the features from heterogeneous particles. For example, these types of data are found in elections, where we observe precinct-level vote tallies (observations) of individual citizens' votes (particles) across each of the candidates or ballot measures (features), where each voter is part of a specific voter cohort or demographic (factor). Like the hierarchical Dirichlet process, NDMs rely on two tiers of Dirichlet processes to explain the data with an unknown number of latent factors; each observation is modeled as a weighted average of these latent factors. Unlike existing models, NDMs recover how factor distributions vary locally for each observation. This uniquely allows NDMs both to deconvolve each observation into its constituent factors, and also to describe how the factor distributions specific to each observation vary across observations and deviate from the corresponding global factors. We present variational inference techniques for this family of models and study its performance on simulated data and voting data from California. We show that including local factors improves estimates of global factors and provides a novel scaffold for exploring data.

In the field of decision trees, most previous studies have difficulty ensuring the statistical optimality of a prediction of new data and suffer from overfitting because trees are usually used only to represent prediction functions to be constructed from given data. In contrast, some studies, including this paper, used the trees to represent stochastic data observation processes behind given data. Moreover, they derived the statistically optimal prediction, which is robust against overfitting, based on the Bayesian decision theory by assuming a prior distribution for the trees. However, these studies still have a problem in computing this Bayes optimal prediction because it involves an infeasible summation for all division patterns of a feature space, which is represented by the trees and some parameters. In particular, an open problem is a summation with respect to combinations of division axes, i.e., the assignment of features to inner nodes of the tree. We solve this by a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, whose step size is adaptively tuned according to a posterior distribution for the trees.

We introduced a novel method to solve Bayesian inverse problems governed by PDE equations with a hybrid two-level MCMC where we took advantage of the AI surrogate model speed and the accuracy of numerical models. We show theoretically the potential to solve Bayesian inverse problems accurately with only a small number of numerical samples when the AI surrogate model error is small. Several numerical experiment results are included which demonstrates the advantage of the hybrid method.

The infinitely wide neural network has been proven a useful and manageable mathematical model that enables the understanding of many phenomena appearing in deep learning. One example is the convergence of random deep networks to Gaussian processes that allows a rigorous analysis of the way the choice of activation function and network weights impacts the training dynamics. In this paper, we extend the seminal proof of Matthews et al. (2018) to a larger class of initial weight distributions (which we call PSEUDO-IID), including the established cases of IID and orthogonal weights, as well as the emerging low-rank and structured sparse settings celebrated for their computational speed-up benefits. We show that fully-connected and convolutional networks initialized with PSEUDO-IID distributions are all effectively equivalent up to their variance. Using our results, one can identify the Edge-of-Chaos for a broader class of neural networks and tune them at criticality in order to enhance their training. Moreover, they enable the posterior distribution of Bayesian Neural Networks to be tractable across these various initialization schemes.

Solving Bayesian inverse problems efficiently remains a significant challenge due to the complexity of posterior distributions and the computational cost of traditional sampling methods. Given a series of observations and the forward model, we want to recover the distribution of the parameters, conditioned on observed experimental data. We show, that combining Conditional Flow Mathching (CFM) with transformer-based architecture, we can efficiently sample from such kind of distribution, conditioned on variable number of observations.

Diffusion models have recently achieved success in solving Bayesian inverse problems with learned data priors. Current methods build on top of the diffusion sampling process, where each denoising step makes small modifications to samples from the previous step. However, this process struggles to correct errors from earlier sampling steps, leading to worse performance in complicated nonlinear inverse problems, such as phase retrieval. To address this challenge, we propose a new method called Decoupled Annealing Posterior Sampling (DAPS) that relies on a novel noise annealing process. Specifically, we decouple consecutive steps in a diffusion sampling trajectory, allowing them to vary considerably from one another while ensuring their time-marginals anneal to the true posterior as we reduce noise levels. This approach enables the exploration of a larger solution space, improving the success rate for accurate reconstructions. We demonstrate that DAPS significantly improves sample quality and stability across multiple image restoration tasks, particularly in complicated nonlinear inverse problems. For example, we achieve a PSNR of 30.72dB on the FFHQ 256 dataset for phase retrieval, which is an improvement of 9.12dB compared to existing methods.

In discriminative settings such as regression and classification there are two random variables at play, the inputs X and the targets Y. Here, we demonstrate that the Variational Information Bottleneck can be viewed as a compromise between fully empirical and fully Bayesian objectives, attempting to minimize the risks due to finite sampling of Y only. We argue that this approach provides some of the benefits of Bayes while requiring only some of the work.

We present a novel variational framework for performing inference in (neural) stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Markov-approximate fractional Brownian motion (fBM). SDEs offer a versatile tool for modeling real-world continuous-time dynamic systems with inherent noise and randomness. Combining SDEs with the powerful inference capabilities of variational methods, enables the learning of representative function distributions through stochastic gradient descent. However, conventional SDEs typically assume the underlying noise to follow a Brownian motion (BM), which hinders their ability to capture long-term dependencies. In contrast, fractional Brownian motion (fBM) extends BM to encompass non-Markovian dynamics, but existing methods for inferring fBM parameters are either computationally demanding or statistically inefficient. In this paper, building upon the Markov approximation of fBM, we derive the evidence lower bound essential for efficient variational inference of posterior path measures, drawing from the well-established field of stochastic analysis. Additionally, we provide a closed-form expression to determine optimal approximation coefficients. Furthermore, we propose the use of neural networks to learn the drift, diffusion and control terms within our variational posterior, leading to the variational training of neural-SDEs. In this framework, we also optimize the Hurst index, governing the nature of our fractional noise. Beyond validation on synthetic data, we contribute a novel architecture for variational latent video prediction,-an approach that, to the best of our knowledge, enables the first variational neural-SDE application to video perception.

Diffusion models are the current state of the art for generating photorealistic images. Controlling the sampling process for constrained image generation tasks such as inpainting, however, remains challenging since exact conditioning on such constraints is intractable. While existing methods use various techniques to approximate the constrained posterior, this paper proposes to exploit the ability of Tractable Probabilistic Models (TPMs) to exactly and efficiently compute the constrained posterior, and to leverage this signal to steer the denoising process of diffusion models. Specifically, this paper adopts a class of expressive TPMs termed Probabilistic Circuits (PCs). Building upon prior advances, we further scale up PCs and make them capable of guiding the image generation process of diffusion models. Empirical results suggest that our approach can consistently improve the overall quality and semantic coherence of inpainted images across three natural image datasets (i.e., CelebA-HQ, ImageNet, and LSUN) with only ~10% additional computational overhead brought by the TPM. Further, with the help of an image encoder and decoder, our method can readily accept semantic constraints on specific regions of the image, which opens up the potential for more controlled image generation tasks. In addition to proposing a new framework for constrained image generation, this paper highlights the benefit of more tractable models and motivates the development of expressive TPMs.

We introduce a deterministic variational formulation for training Bayesian last layer neural networks. This yields a sampling-free, single-pass model and loss that effectively improves uncertainty estimation. Our variational Bayesian last layer (VBLL) can be trained and evaluated with only quadratic complexity in last layer width, and is thus (nearly) computationally free to add to standard architectures. We experimentally investigate VBLLs, and show that they improve predictive accuracy, calibration, and out of distribution detection over baselines across both regression and classification. Finally, we investigate combining VBLL layers with variational Bayesian feature learning, yielding a lower variance collapsed variational inference method for Bayesian neural networks.

Variational inference using the reparameterization trick has enabled large-scale approximate Bayesian inference in complex probabilistic models, leveraging stochastic optimization to sidestep intractable expectations. The reparameterization trick is applicable when we can simulate a random variable by applying a differentiable deterministic function on an auxiliary random variable whose distribution is fixed. For many distributions of interest (such as the gamma or Dirichlet), simulation of random variables relies on acceptance-rejection sampling. The discontinuity introduced by the accept-reject step means that standard reparameterization tricks are not applicable. We propose a new method that lets us leverage reparameterization gradients even when variables are outputs of a acceptance-rejection sampling algorithm. Our approach enables reparameterization on a larger class of variational distributions. In several studies of real and synthetic data, we show that the variance of the estimator of the gradient is significantly lower than other state-of-the-art methods. This leads to faster convergence of stochastic gradient variational inference.

The optimization of expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions is prevalent in various scientific disciplines. Bayesian optimization is an automatic, general and sample-efficient method to solve these problems with minimal knowledge of the underlying function dynamics. However, the ability of Bayesian optimization to incorporate prior knowledge or beliefs about the function at hand in order to accelerate the optimization is limited, which reduces its appeal for knowledgeable practitioners with tight budgets. To allow domain experts to customize the optimization routine, we propose ColaBO, the first Bayesian-principled framework for incorporating prior beliefs beyond the typical kernel structure, such as the likely location of the optimizer or the optimal value. The generality of ColaBO makes it applicable across different Monte Carlo acquisition functions and types of user beliefs. We empirically demonstrate ColaBO's ability to substantially accelerate optimization when the prior information is accurate, and to retain approximately default performance when it is misleading.

This paper presents a Bayesian nonparametric latent feature model specially suitable for exploratory analysis of high-dimensional count data. We perform a non-negative doubly sparse matrix factorization that has two main advantages: not only we are able to better approximate the row input distributions, but the inferred topics are also easier to interpret. By combining the three-parameter and restricted Indian buffet processes into a single prior, we increase the model flexibility, allowing for a full spectrum of sparse solutions in the latent space. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach in the analysis of countries' economic structure. Compared to other approaches, empirical results show our model's ability to give easy-to-interpret information and better capture the underlying sparsity structure of data.

Training data attribution (TDA) techniques find influential training data for the model's prediction on the test data of interest. They approximate the impact of down- or up-weighting a particular training sample. While conceptually useful, they are hardly applicable to deep models in practice, particularly because of their sensitivity to different model initialisation. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian perspective on the TDA task, where the learned model is treated as a Bayesian posterior and the TDA estimates as random variables. From this novel viewpoint, we observe that the influence of an individual training sample is often overshadowed by the noise stemming from model initialisation and SGD batch composition. Based on this observation, we argue that TDA can only be reliably used for explaining deep model predictions that are consistently influenced by certain training data, independent of other noise factors. Our experiments demonstrate the rarity of such noise-independent training-test data pairs but confirm their existence. We recommend that future researchers and practitioners trust TDA estimates only in such cases. Further, we find a disagreement between ground truth and estimated TDA distributions and encourage future work to study this gap. Code is provided at https://github.com/ElisaNguyen/bayesian-tda.

The posterior collapse phenomenon in variational autoencoder (VAE), where the variational posterior distribution closely matches the prior distribution, can hinder the quality of the learned latent variables. As a consequence of posterior collapse, the latent variables extracted by the encoder in VAE preserve less information from the input data and thus fail to produce meaningful representations as input to the reconstruction process in the decoder. While this phenomenon has been an actively addressed topic related to VAE performance, the theory for posterior collapse remains underdeveloped, especially beyond the standard VAE. In this work, we advance the theoretical understanding of posterior collapse to two important and prevalent yet less studied classes of VAE: conditional VAE and hierarchical VAE. Specifically, via a non-trivial theoretical analysis of linear conditional VAE and hierarchical VAE with two levels of latent, we prove that the cause of posterior collapses in these models includes the correlation between the input and output of the conditional VAE and the effect of learnable encoder variance in the hierarchical VAE. We empirically validate our theoretical findings for linear conditional and hierarchical VAE and demonstrate that these results are also predictive for non-linear cases with extensive experiments.

The Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) is a quantity that plays a key role in variational inference. It can also be used as a criterion in model selection. However, though extremely popular in practice in the variational Bayes community, there has never been a general theoretic justification for selecting based on the ELBO. In this paper, we show that the ELBO maximization strategy has strong theoretical guarantees, and is robust to model misspecification while most works rely on the assumption that one model is correctly specified. We illustrate our theoretical results by an application to the selection of the number of principal components in probabilistic PCA.

We propose a novel Bayesian inference framework for distributed differentially private linear regression. We consider a distributed setting where multiple parties hold parts of the data and share certain summary statistics of their portions in privacy-preserving noise. We develop a novel generative statistical model for privately shared statistics, which exploits a useful distributional relation between the summary statistics of linear regression. Bayesian estimation of the regression coefficients is conducted mainly using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, while we also provide a fast version to perform Bayesian estimation in one iteration. The proposed methods have computational advantages over their competitors. We provide numerical results on both real and simulated data, which demonstrate that the proposed algorithms provide well-rounded estimation and prediction.

Latent variable models (LVMs) with discrete compositional latents are an important but challenging setting due to a combinatorially large number of possible configurations of the latents. A key tradeoff in modeling the posteriors over latents is between expressivity and tractable optimization. For algorithms based on expectation-maximization (EM), the E-step is often intractable without restrictive approximations to the posterior. We propose the use of GFlowNets, algorithms for sampling from an unnormalized density by learning a stochastic policy for sequential construction of samples, for this intractable E-step. By training GFlowNets to sample from the posterior over latents, we take advantage of their strengths as amortized variational inference algorithms for complex distributions over discrete structures. Our approach, GFlowNet-EM, enables the training of expressive LVMs with discrete compositional latents, as shown by experiments on non-context-free grammar induction and on images using discrete variational autoencoders (VAEs) without conditional independence enforced in the encoder.

Anomaly detection methods identify examples that do not follow the expected behaviour, typically in an unsupervised fashion, by assigning real-valued anomaly scores to the examples based on various heuristics. These scores need to be transformed into actual predictions by thresholding, so that the proportion of examples marked as anomalies equals the expected proportion of anomalies, called contamination factor. Unfortunately, there are no good methods for estimating the contamination factor itself. We address this need from a Bayesian perspective, introducing a method for estimating the posterior distribution of the contamination factor of a given unlabeled dataset. We leverage on outputs of several anomaly detectors as a representation that already captures the basic notion of anomalousness and estimate the contamination using a specific mixture formulation. Empirically on 22 datasets, we show that the estimated distribution is well-calibrated and that setting the threshold using the posterior mean improves the anomaly detectors' performance over several alternative methods. All code is publicly available for full reproducibility.

Structured variational autoencoders (SVAEs) combine probabilistic graphical model priors on latent variables, deep neural networks to link latent variables to observed data, and structure-exploiting algorithms for approximate posterior inference. These models are particularly appealing for sequential data, where the prior can capture temporal dependencies. However, despite their conceptual elegance, SVAEs have proven difficult to implement, and more general approaches have been favored in practice. Here, we revisit SVAEs using modern machine learning tools and demonstrate their advantages over more general alternatives in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. First, we develop a modern implementation for hardware acceleration, parallelization, and automatic differentiation of the message passing algorithms at the core of the SVAE. Second, we show that by exploiting structure in the prior, the SVAE learns more accurate models and posterior distributions, which translate into improved performance on prediction tasks. Third, we show how the SVAE can naturally handle missing data, and we leverage this ability to develop a novel, self-supervised training approach. Altogether, these results show that the time is ripe to revisit structured variational autoencoders.

This paper proposes an online, provably robust, and scalable Bayesian approach for changepoint detection. The resulting algorithm has key advantages over previous work: it provides provable robustness by leveraging the generalised Bayesian perspective, and also addresses the scalability issues of previous attempts. Specifically, the proposed generalised Bayesian formalism leads to conjugate posteriors whose parameters are available in closed form by leveraging diffusion score matching. The resulting algorithm is exact, can be updated through simple algebra, and is more than 10 times faster than its closest competitor.

Selecting hyperparameters in deep learning greatly impacts its effectiveness but requires manual effort and expertise. Recent works show that Bayesian model selection with Laplace approximations can allow to optimize such hyperparameters just like standard neural network parameters using gradients and on the training data. However, estimating a single hyperparameter gradient requires a pass through the entire dataset, limiting the scalability of such algorithms. In this work, we overcome this issue by introducing lower bounds to the linearized Laplace approximation of the marginal likelihood. In contrast to previous estimators, these bounds are amenable to stochastic-gradient-based optimization and allow to trade off estimation accuracy against computational complexity. We derive them using the function-space form of the linearized Laplace, which can be estimated using the neural tangent kernel. Experimentally, we show that the estimators can significantly accelerate gradient-based hyperparameter optimization.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

Subsampling is commonly used to mitigate costs associated with data acquisition, such as time or energy requirements, motivating the development of algorithms for estimating the fully-sampled signal of interest x from partially observed measurements y. In maximum-entropy sampling, one selects measurement locations that are expected to have the highest entropy, so as to minimize uncertainty about x. This approach relies on an accurate model of the posterior distribution over future measurements, given the measurements observed so far. Recently, diffusion models have been shown to produce high-quality posterior samples of high-dimensional signals using guided diffusion. In this work, we propose Active Diffusion Subsampling (ADS), a method for performing active subsampling using guided diffusion in which the model tracks a distribution of beliefs over the true state of x throughout the reverse diffusion process, progressively decreasing its uncertainty by choosing to acquire measurements with maximum expected entropy, and ultimately generating the posterior distribution p(x | y). ADS can be applied using pre-trained diffusion models for any subsampling rate, and does not require task-specific retraining - just the specification of a measurement model. Furthermore, the maximum entropy sampling policy employed by ADS is interpretable, enhancing transparency relative to existing methods using black-box policies. Experimentally, we show that ADS outperforms fixed sampling strategies, and study an application of ADS in Magnetic Resonance Imaging acceleration using the fastMRI dataset, finding that ADS performs competitively with supervised methods. Code available at https://active-diffusion-subsampling.github.io/.

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are one of the deep generative models that have experienced enormous success over the past decades. However, in practice, they suffer from a problem called posterior collapse, which occurs when the encoder coincides, or collapses, with the prior taking no information from the latent structure of the input data into consideration. In this work, we introduce an inverse Lipschitz neural network into the decoder and, based on this architecture, provide a new method that can control in a simple and clear manner the degree of posterior collapse for a wide range of VAE models equipped with a concrete theoretical guarantee. We also illustrate the effectiveness of our method through several numerical experiments.

High-quality calibrated uncertainty estimates are crucial for numerous real-world applications, especially for deep learning-based deployed ML systems. While Bayesian deep learning techniques allow uncertainty estimation, training them with large-scale datasets is an expensive process that does not always yield models competitive with non-Bayesian counterparts. Moreover, many of the high-performing deep learning models that are already trained and deployed are non-Bayesian in nature and do not provide uncertainty estimates. To address these issues, we propose BayesCap that learns a Bayesian identity mapping for the frozen model, allowing uncertainty estimation. BayesCap is a memory-efficient method that can be trained on a small fraction of the original dataset, enhancing pretrained non-Bayesian computer vision models by providing calibrated uncertainty estimates for the predictions without (i) hampering the performance of the model and (ii) the need for expensive retraining the model from scratch. The proposed method is agnostic to various architectures and tasks. We show the efficacy of our method on a wide variety of tasks with a diverse set of architectures, including image super-resolution, deblurring, inpainting, and crucial application such as medical image translation. Moreover, we apply the derived uncertainty estimates to detect out-of-distribution samples in critical scenarios like depth estimation in autonomous driving. Code is available at https://github.com/ExplainableML/BayesCap.

Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for learning from complex data and reasoning under uncertainty. It has been widely applied in machine learning tasks such as medical diagnosis, drug design, and policymaking. In these common applications, data can be highly sensitive. Differential privacy (DP) offers data analysis tools with powerful worst-case privacy guarantees and has been developed as the leading approach in privacy-preserving data analysis. In this paper, we study Metropolis-Hastings (MH), one of the most fundamental MCMC methods, for large-scale Bayesian inference under differential privacy. While most existing private MCMC algorithms sacrifice accuracy and efficiency to obtain privacy, we provide the first exact and fast DP MH algorithm, using only a minibatch of data in most iterations. We further reveal, for the first time, a three-way trade-off among privacy, scalability (i.e. the batch size), and efficiency (i.e. the convergence rate), theoretically characterizing how privacy affects the utility and computational cost in Bayesian inference. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our algorithm in various experiments.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen future data. Under this view, we show that deep ensembling (Lakshminarayanan et al., 2017) is a fundamentally mis-specified model class, since it assumes that future data are supported on existing observations only -- a situation rarely encountered in practice. To address this limitation, we propose MixupMP, a method that constructs a more realistic predictive distribution using popular data augmentation techniques. MixupMP operates as a drop-in replacement for deep ensembles, where each ensemble member is trained on a random simulation from this predictive distribution. Grounded in the recently-proposed framework of Martingale posteriors (Fong et al., 2023), MixupMP returns samples from an implicitly defined Bayesian posterior. Our empirical analysis showcases that MixupMP achieves superior predictive performance and uncertainty quantification on various image classification datasets, when compared with existing Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches.

Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum distance estimation, generalised Bayesian inference, and within the nonparametric learning framework. The MMD is commonly estimated at a root-m rate, where m is the number of simulated samples. This can lead to significant computational challenges since a large m is required to obtain an accurate estimate, which is crucial for parameter estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for the MMD with significantly improved sample complexity. The estimator is particularly well suited for computationally expensive smooth simulators with low- to mid-dimensional inputs. This claim is supported through both theoretical results and an extensive simulation study on benchmark simulators.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

We use Bayesian convolutional neural networks and a novel generative model of Galaxy Zoo volunteer responses to infer posteriors for the visual morphology of galaxies. Bayesian CNN can learn from galaxy images with uncertain labels and then, for previously unlabelled galaxies, predict the probability of each possible label. Our posteriors are well-calibrated (e.g. for predicting bars, we achieve coverage errors of 11.8% within a vote fraction deviation of 0.2) and hence are reliable for practical use. Further, using our posteriors, we apply the active learning strategy BALD to request volunteer responses for the subset of galaxies which, if labelled, would be most informative for training our network. We show that training our Bayesian CNNs using active learning requires up to 35-60% fewer labelled galaxies, depending on the morphological feature being classified. By combining human and machine intelligence, Galaxy Zoo will be able to classify surveys of any conceivable scale on a timescale of weeks, providing massive and detailed morphology catalogues to support research into galaxy evolution.

We study the problem of approximate sampling from non-log-concave distributions, e.g., Gaussian mixtures, which is often challenging even in low dimensions due to their multimodality. We focus on performing this task via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods derived from discretizations of the overdamped Langevin diffusions, which are commonly known as Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms. Furthermore, we are also interested in two nonsmooth cases for which a large class of proximal MCMC methods have been developed: (i) a nonsmooth prior is considered with a Gaussian mixture likelihood; (ii) a Laplacian mixture distribution. Such nonsmooth and non-log-concave sampling tasks arise from a wide range of applications to Bayesian inference and imaging inverse problems such as image deconvolution. We perform numerical simulations to compare the performance of most commonly used Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms.

Learning-based outlier (mismatched correspondence) rejection for robust 3D registration generally formulates the outlier removal as an inlier/outlier classification problem. The core for this to be successful is to learn the discriminative inlier/outlier feature representations. In this paper, we develop a novel variational non-local network-based outlier rejection framework for robust alignment. By reformulating the non-local feature learning with variational Bayesian inference, the Bayesian-driven long-range dependencies can be modeled to aggregate discriminative geometric context information for inlier/outlier distinction. Specifically, to achieve such Bayesian-driven contextual dependencies, each query/key/value component in our non-local network predicts a prior feature distribution and a posterior one. Embedded with the inlier/outlier label, the posterior feature distribution is label-dependent and discriminative. Thus, pushing the prior to be close to the discriminative posterior in the training step enables the features sampled from this prior at test time to model high-quality long-range dependencies. Notably, to achieve effective posterior feature guidance, a specific probabilistic graphical model is designed over our non-local model, which lets us derive a variational low bound as our optimization objective for model training. Finally, we propose a voting-based inlier searching strategy to cluster the high-quality hypothetical inliers for transformation estimation. Extensive experiments on 3DMatch, 3DLoMatch, and KITTI datasets verify the effectiveness of our method.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) offer uncertainty quantification but come with the downside of substantially increased training and inference costs. Sparse BNNs have been investigated for efficient inference, typically by either slowly introducing sparsity throughout the training or by post-training compression of dense BNNs. The dilemma of how to cut down massive training costs remains, particularly given the requirement to learn about the uncertainty. To solve this challenge, we introduce Sparse Subspace Variational Inference (SSVI), the first fully sparse BNN framework that maintains a consistently highly sparse Bayesian model throughout the training and inference phases. Starting from a randomly initialized low-dimensional sparse subspace, our approach alternately optimizes the sparse subspace basis selection and its associated parameters. While basis selection is characterized as a non-differentiable problem, we approximate the optimal solution with a removal-and-addition strategy, guided by novel criteria based on weight distribution statistics. Our extensive experiments show that SSVI sets new benchmarks in crafting sparse BNNs, achieving, for instance, a 10-20x compression in model size with under 3\% performance drop, and up to 20x FLOPs reduction during training compared with dense VI training. Remarkably, SSVI also demonstrates enhanced robustness to hyperparameters, reducing the need for intricate tuning in VI and occasionally even surpassing VI-trained dense BNNs on both accuracy and uncertainty metrics.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

The estimation of repeatedly nested expectations is a challenging task that arises in many real-world systems. However, existing methods generally suffer from high computational costs when the number of nestings becomes large. Fix any non-negative integer D for the total number of nestings. Standard Monte Carlo methods typically cost at least O(varepsilon^{-(2+D)}) and sometimes O(varepsilon^{-2(1+D)}) to obtain an estimator up to varepsilon-error. More advanced methods, such as multilevel Monte Carlo, currently only exist for D = 1. In this paper, we propose a novel Monte Carlo estimator called READ, which stands for "Recursive Estimator for Arbitrary Depth.'' Our estimator has an optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2}) for every fixed D under suitable assumptions, and a nearly optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2(1 + delta)}) for any 0 < delta < frac12 under much more general assumptions. Our estimator is also unbiased, which makes it easy to parallelize. The key ingredients in our construction are an observation of the problem's recursive structure and the recursive use of the randomized multilevel Monte Carlo method.

The Variational Autoencoder (VAE) is a seminal approach in deep generative modeling with latent variables. Interpreting its reconstruction process as a nonlinear transformation of samples from the latent posterior distribution, we apply the Unscented Transform (UT) -- a well-known distribution approximation used in the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) from the field of filtering. A finite set of statistics called sigma points, sampled deterministically, provides a more informative and lower-variance posterior representation than the ubiquitous noise-scaling of the reparameterization trick, while ensuring higher-quality reconstruction. We further boost the performance by replacing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence with the Wasserstein distribution metric that allows for a sharper posterior. Inspired by the two components, we derive a novel, deterministic-sampling flavor of the VAE, the Unscented Autoencoder (UAE), trained purely with regularization-like terms on the per-sample posterior. We empirically show competitive performance in Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID) scores over closely-related models, in addition to a lower training variance than the VAE.

The kernel thinning (KT) algorithm of Dwivedi and Mackey (2021) compresses a probability distribution more effectively than independent sampling by targeting a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and leveraging a less smooth square-root kernel. Here we provide four improvements. First, we show that KT applied directly to the target RKHS yields tighter, dimension-free guarantees for any kernel, any distribution, and any fixed function in the RKHS. Second, we show that, for analytic kernels like Gaussian, inverse multiquadric, and sinc, target KT admits maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) guarantees comparable to or better than those of square-root KT without making explicit use of a square-root kernel. Third, we prove that KT with a fractional power kernel yields better-than-Monte-Carlo MMD guarantees for non-smooth kernels, like Laplace and Mat\'ern, that do not have square-roots. Fourth, we establish that KT applied to a sum of the target and power kernels (a procedure we call KT+) simultaneously inherits the improved MMD guarantees of power KT and the tighter individual function guarantees of target KT. In our experiments with target KT and KT+, we witness significant improvements in integration error even in 100 dimensions and when compressing challenging differential equation posteriors.

Diffusion models have impressive image generation capability, but low-quality generations still exist, and their identification remains challenging due to the lack of a proper sample-wise metric. To address this, we propose BayesDiff, a pixel-wise uncertainty estimator for generations from diffusion models based on Bayesian inference. In particular, we derive a novel uncertainty iteration principle to characterize the uncertainty dynamics in diffusion, and leverage the last-layer Laplace approximation for efficient Bayesian inference. The estimated pixel-wise uncertainty can not only be aggregated into a sample-wise metric to filter out low-fidelity images but also aids in augmenting successful generations and rectifying artifacts in failed generations in text-to-image tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of BayesDiff and its promise for practical applications.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

We study the problem of training a flow-based generative model, parametrized by a two-layer autoencoder, to sample from a high-dimensional Gaussian mixture. We provide a sharp end-to-end analysis of the problem. First, we provide a tight closed-form characterization of the learnt velocity field, when parametrized by a shallow denoising auto-encoder trained on a finite number n of samples from the target distribution. Building on this analysis, we provide a sharp description of the corresponding generative flow, which pushes the base Gaussian density forward to an approximation of the target density. In particular, we provide closed-form formulae for the distance between the mean of the generated mixture and the mean of the target mixture, which we show decays as Theta_n(1{n}). Finally, this rate is shown to be in fact Bayes-optimal.

We study the sparse recovery problem with an underdetermined linear system characterized by a Kronecker-structured dictionary and a Kronecker-supported sparse vector. We cast this problem into the sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) framework and rely on the expectation-maximization method for a solution. To this end, we model the Kronecker-structured support with a hierarchical Gaussian prior distribution parameterized by a Kronecker-structured hyperparameter, leading to a non-convex optimization problem. The optimization problem is solved using the alternating minimization (AM) method and a singular value decomposition (SVD)-based method, resulting in two algorithms. Further, we analytically guarantee that the AM-based method converges to the stationary point of the SBL cost function. The SVD-based method, though it adopts approximations, is empirically shown to be more efficient and accurate. We then apply our algorithm to estimate the uplink wireless channel in an intelligent reflecting surface-aided MIMO system and extend the AM-based algorithm to address block sparsity in the channel. We also study the SBL cost to show that the minima of the cost function are achieved at sparse solutions and that incorporating the Kronecker structure reduces the number of local minima of the SBL cost function. Our numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms compared to the state-of-the-art.

Sampling from the posterior distribution poses a major computational challenge in solving inverse problems using latent diffusion models. Common methods rely on Tweedie's first-order moments, which are known to induce a quality-limiting bias. Existing second-order approximations are impractical due to prohibitive computational costs, making standard reverse diffusion processes intractable for posterior sampling. This paper introduces Second-order Tweedie sampler from Surrogate Loss (STSL), a novel sampler that offers efficiency comparable to first-order Tweedie with a tractable reverse process using second-order approximation. Our theoretical results reveal that the second-order approximation is lower bounded by our surrogate loss that only requires O(1) compute using the trace of the Hessian, and by the lower bound we derive a new drift term to make the reverse process tractable. Our method surpasses SoTA solvers PSLD and P2L, achieving 4X and 8X reduction in neural function evaluations, respectively, while notably enhancing sampling quality on FFHQ, ImageNet, and COCO benchmarks. In addition, we show STSL extends to text-guided image editing and addresses residual distortions present from corrupted images in leading text-guided image editing methods. To our best knowledge, this is the first work to offer an efficient second-order approximation in solving inverse problems using latent diffusion and editing real-world images with corruptions.

We revisit the theoretical properties of Hamiltonian stochastic differential equations (SDES) for Bayesian posterior sampling, and we study the two types of errors that arise from numerical SDE simulation: the discretization error and the error due to noisy gradient estimates in the context of data subsampling. Our main result is a novel analysis for the effect of mini-batches through the lens of differential operator splitting, revising previous literature results. The stochastic component of a Hamiltonian SDE is decoupled from the gradient noise, for which we make no normality assumptions. This leads to the identification of a convergence bottleneck: when considering mini-batches, the best achievable error rate is O(eta^2), with eta being the integrator step size. Our theoretical results are supported by an empirical study on a variety of regression and classification tasks for Bayesian neural networks.

Multiple types of inference are available for probabilistic graphical models, e.g., marginal, maximum-a-posteriori, and even marginal maximum-a-posteriori. Which one do researchers mean when they talk about ``planning as inference''? There is no consistency in the literature, different types are used, and their ability to do planning is further entangled with specific approximations or additional constraints. In this work we use the variational framework to show that, just like all commonly used types of inference correspond to different weightings of the entropy terms in the variational problem, planning corresponds exactly to a different set of weights. This means that all the tricks of variational inference are readily applicable to planning. We develop an analogue of loopy belief propagation that allows us to perform approximate planning in factored-state Markov decisions processes without incurring intractability due to the exponentially large state space. The variational perspective shows that the previous types of inference for planning are only adequate in environments with low stochasticity, and allows us to characterize each type by its own merits, disentangling the type of inference from the additional approximations that its practical use requires. We validate these results empirically on synthetic MDPs and tasks posed in the International Planning Competition.

We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor graph associated with the emission distribution. This allows the exponential-in-dimension cost of exact filtering and smoothing to be avoided. We prove that the approximation accuracy, measured in a local total variation norm, is "dimension-free" in the sense that as the overall dimension of the model increases the error bounds we derive do not necessarily degrade. A key step in the analysis is to quantify the error introduced by localizing the likelihood function in a Bayes' rule update. The factorial structure of the likelihood function which we exploit arises naturally when data have known spatial or network structure. We demonstrate the new algorithms on synthetic examples and a London Underground passenger flow problem, where the factor graph is effectively given by the train network.

Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs. In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves warrants a Bayesian approach, existing methods are (i) overly restrictive, and/or (ii) computationally expensive. We describe the first application of prior-data fitted neural networks (PFNs) in this context. A PFN is a transformer, pre-trained on data generated from a prior, to perform approximate Bayesian inference in a single forward pass. We propose LC-PFN, a PFN trained to extrapolate 10 million artificial right-censored learning curves generated from a parametric prior proposed in prior art using MCMC. We demonstrate that LC-PFN can approximate the posterior predictive distribution more accurately than MCMC, while being over 10 000 times faster. We also show that the same LC-PFN achieves competitive performance extrapolating a total of 20 000 real learning curves from four learning curve benchmarks (LCBench, NAS-Bench-201, Taskset, and PD1) that stem from training a wide range of model architectures (MLPs, CNNs, RNNs, and Transformers) on 53 different datasets with varying input modalities (tabular, image, text, and protein data). Finally, we investigate its potential in the context of model selection and find that a simple LC-PFN based predictive early stopping criterion obtains 2 - 6x speed-ups on 45 of these datasets, at virtually no overhead.

Stochastic restoration algorithms allow to explore the space of solutions that correspond to the degraded input. In this paper we reveal additional fundamental advantages of stochastic methods over deterministic ones, which further motivate their use. First, we prove that any restoration algorithm that attains perfect perceptual quality and whose outputs are consistent with the input must be a posterior sampler, and is thus required to be stochastic. Second, we illustrate that while deterministic restoration algorithms may attain high perceptual quality, this can be achieved only by filling up the space of all possible source images using an extremely sensitive mapping, which makes them highly vulnerable to adversarial attacks. Indeed, we show that enforcing deterministic models to be robust to such attacks profoundly hinders their perceptual quality, while robustifying stochastic models hardly influences their perceptual quality, and improves their output variability. These findings provide a motivation to foster progress in stochastic restoration methods, paving the way to better recovery algorithms.

We provide a framework for solving inverse problems with diffusion models learned from linearly corrupted data. Our method, Ambient Diffusion Posterior Sampling (A-DPS), leverages a generative model pre-trained on one type of corruption (e.g. image inpainting) to perform posterior sampling conditioned on measurements from a potentially different forward process (e.g. image blurring). We test the efficacy of our approach on standard natural image datasets (CelebA, FFHQ, and AFHQ) and we show that A-DPS can sometimes outperform models trained on clean data for several image restoration tasks in both speed and performance. We further extend the Ambient Diffusion framework to train MRI models with access only to Fourier subsampled multi-coil MRI measurements at various acceleration factors (R=2, 4, 6, 8). We again observe that models trained on highly subsampled data are better priors for solving inverse problems in the high acceleration regime than models trained on fully sampled data. We open-source our code and the trained Ambient Diffusion MRI models: https://github.com/utcsilab/ambient-diffusion-mri .

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have shown promise in applications like view synthesis and depth estimation, but learning from multiview images faces inherent uncertainties. Current methods to quantify them are either heuristic or computationally demanding. We introduce BayesRays, a post-hoc framework to evaluate uncertainty in any pre-trained NeRF without modifying the training process. Our method establishes a volumetric uncertainty field using spatial perturbations and a Bayesian Laplace approximation. We derive our algorithm statistically and show its superior performance in key metrics and applications. Additional results available at: https://bayesrays.github.io.

We present a probabilistic model for point cloud generation, which is fundamental for various 3D vision tasks such as shape completion, upsampling, synthesis and data augmentation. Inspired by the diffusion process in non-equilibrium thermodynamics, we view points in point clouds as particles in a thermodynamic system in contact with a heat bath, which diffuse from the original distribution to a noise distribution. Point cloud generation thus amounts to learning the reverse diffusion process that transforms the noise distribution to the distribution of a desired shape. Specifically, we propose to model the reverse diffusion process for point clouds as a Markov chain conditioned on certain shape latent. We derive the variational bound in closed form for training and provide implementations of the model. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves competitive performance in point cloud generation and auto-encoding. The code is available at https://github.com/luost26/diffusion-point-cloud.

Modeling latent variables with priors and hyperpriors is an essential problem in variational image compression. Formally, trade-off between rate and distortion is handled well if priors and hyperpriors precisely describe latent variables. Current practices only adopt univariate priors and process each variable individually. However, we find inter-correlations and intra-correlations exist when observing latent variables in a vectorized perspective. These findings reveal visual redundancies to improve rate-distortion performance and parallel processing ability to speed up compression. This encourages us to propose a novel vectorized prior. Specifically, a multivariate Gaussian mixture is proposed with means and covariances to be estimated. Then, a novel probabilistic vector quantization is utilized to effectively approximate means, and remaining covariances are further induced to a unified mixture and solved by cascaded estimation without context models involved. Furthermore, codebooks involved in quantization are extended to multi-codebooks for complexity reduction, which formulates an efficient compression procedure. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets against state-of-the-art indicate our model has better rate-distortion performance and an impressive 3.18times compression speed up, giving us the ability to perform real-time, high-quality variational image compression in practice. Our source code is publicly available at https://github.com/xiaosu-zhu/McQuic.

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

This paper proposes a vision-based fire and smoke segmentation system which use spatial, temporal and motion information to extract the desired regions from the video frames. The fusion of information is done using multiple features such as optical flow, divergence and intensity values. These features extracted from the images are used to segment the pixels into different classes in an unsupervised way. A comparative analysis is done by using multiple clustering algorithms for segmentation. Here the Markov Random Field performs more accurately than other segmentation algorithms since it characterizes the spatial interactions of pixels using a finite number of parameters. It builds a probabilistic image model that selects the most likely labeling using the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. This unsupervised approach is tested on various images and achieves a frame-wise fire detection rate of 95.39%. Hence this method can be used for early detection of fire in real-time and it can be incorporated into an indoor or outdoor surveillance system.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

Jointly identifying a mixture of discrete and continuous factors of variability without supervision is a key problem in unraveling complex phenomena. Variational inference has emerged as a promising method to learn interpretable mixture representations. However, posterior approximation in high-dimensional latent spaces, particularly for discrete factors remains challenging. Here, we propose an unsupervised variational framework using multiple interacting networks called cpl-mixVAE that scales well to high-dimensional discrete settings. In this framework, the mixture representation of each network is regularized by imposing a consensus constraint on the discrete factor. We justify the use of this framework by providing both theoretical and experimental results. Finally, we use the proposed method to jointly uncover discrete and continuous factors of variability describing gene expression in a single-cell transcriptomic dataset profiling more than a hundred cortical neuron types.

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $sum_{i=1}^k w_i N(mu_i,sigma^2), i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set S. The goal is to learn the weights w_i and the means \mu_i. We propose an algorithm that takes only 1{\varepsilon^{O(k)}} samples to estimate the weights w_i and the means \mu_i within \varepsilon$ error.

Neural network pruning is a highly effective technique aimed at reducing the computational and memory demands of large neural networks. In this research paper, we present a novel approach to pruning neural networks utilizing Bayesian inference, which can seamlessly integrate into the training procedure. Our proposed method leverages the posterior probabilities of the neural network prior to and following pruning, enabling the calculation of Bayes factors. The calculated Bayes factors guide the iterative pruning. Through comprehensive evaluations conducted on multiple benchmarks, we demonstrate that our method achieves desired levels of sparsity while maintaining competitive accuracy.

Image reconstruction in low-light conditions is a challenging problem. Many solutions have been proposed for it, where the main approach is trying to learn a good prior of natural images along with modeling the true statistics of the noise in the scene. In the presence of very low lighting conditions, such approaches are usually not enough, and additional information is required, e.g., in the form of using multiple captures. In this work, we suggest as an alternative to add a description of the scene as prior, which can be easily done by the photographer who is capturing the scene. Using a text-conditioned diffusion model, we show that adding image caption information improves significantly the image reconstruction in low-light conditions on both synthetic and real-world images.

When training large flexible models, practitioners often rely on grid search to select hyperparameters that control over-fitting. This grid search has several disadvantages: the search is computationally expensive, requires carving out a validation set that reduces the available data for training, and requires users to specify candidate values. In this paper, we propose an alternative: directly learning regularization hyperparameters on the full training set via the evidence lower bound ("ELBo") objective from variational methods. For deep neural networks with millions of parameters, we recommend a modified ELBo that upweights the influence of the data likelihood relative to the prior. Our proposed technique overcomes all three disadvantages of grid search. In a case study on transfer learning of image classifiers, we show how our method reduces the 88+ hour grid search of past work to under 3 hours while delivering comparable accuracy. We further demonstrate how our approach enables efficient yet accurate approximations of Gaussian processes with learnable length-scale kernels.

Disentangled representations, where the higher level data generative factors are reflected in disjoint latent dimensions, offer several benefits such as ease of deriving invariant representations, transferability to other tasks, interpretability, etc. We consider the problem of unsupervised learning of disentangled representations from large pool of unlabeled observations, and propose a variational inference based approach to infer disentangled latent factors. We introduce a regularizer on the expectation of the approximate posterior over observed data that encourages the disentanglement. We also propose a new disentanglement metric which is better aligned with the qualitative disentanglement observed in the decoder's output. We empirically observe significant improvement over existing methods in terms of both disentanglement and data likelihood (reconstruction quality).

Gravitational waves from merging binary neutron stars carry characteristic information about their astrophysical properties, including masses and tidal deformabilities, that are needed to infer their radii. In this study, we use Bayesian inference to quantify the precision with which radius can inferred with upgrades in the current gravitational wave detectors and next-generation observatories such as the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer. We assign evidences for a set of plausible equations of state, which are then used as weights to obtain radius posteriors. We find that prior choices and the loudness of observed signals limit the precision and accuracy of inferred radii by current detectors. In contrast, next-generation observatories can resolve the radius precisely and accurately, across most of the mass range to within lesssim 5% for both soft and stiff equations of state. We also explore how the choice of the neutron star mass prior can influence the inferred masses and potentially affect radii measurements, finding that choosing an astrophysically motivated prior does not notably impact an individual neutron star's radius measurements.

Diffusion models have emerged as the new state-of-the-art generative model with high quality samples, with intriguing properties such as mode coverage and high flexibility. They have also been shown to be effective inverse problem solvers, acting as the prior of the distribution, while the information of the forward model can be granted at the sampling stage. Nonetheless, as the generative process remains in the same high dimensional (i.e. identical to data dimension) space, the models have not been extended to 3D inverse problems due to the extremely high memory and computational cost. In this paper, we combine the ideas from the conventional model-based iterative reconstruction with the modern diffusion models, which leads to a highly effective method for solving 3D medical image reconstruction tasks such as sparse-view tomography, limited angle tomography, compressed sensing MRI from pre-trained 2D diffusion models. In essence, we propose to augment the 2D diffusion prior with a model-based prior in the remaining direction at test time, such that one can achieve coherent reconstructions across all dimensions. Our method can be run in a single commodity GPU, and establishes the new state-of-the-art, showing that the proposed method can perform reconstructions of high fidelity and accuracy even in the most extreme cases (e.g. 2-view 3D tomography). We further reveal that the generalization capacity of the proposed method is surprisingly high, and can be used to reconstruct volumes that are entirely different from the training dataset.

What do auto-encoders learn about the underlying data generating distribution? Recent work suggests that some auto-encoder variants do a good job of capturing the local manifold structure of data. This paper clarifies some of these previous observations by showing that minimizing a particular form of regularized reconstruction error yields a reconstruction function that locally characterizes the shape of the data generating density. We show that the auto-encoder captures the score (derivative of the log-density with respect to the input). It contradicts previous interpretations of reconstruction error as an energy function. Unlike previous results, the theorems provided here are completely generic and do not depend on the parametrization of the auto-encoder: they show what the auto-encoder would tend to if given enough capacity and examples. These results are for a contractive training criterion we show to be similar to the denoising auto-encoder training criterion with small corruption noise, but with contraction applied on the whole reconstruction function rather than just encoder. Similarly to score matching, one can consider the proposed training criterion as a convenient alternative to maximum likelihood because it does not involve a partition function. Finally, we show how an approximate Metropolis-Hastings MCMC can be setup to recover samples from the estimated distribution, and this is confirmed in sampling experiments.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is typically used to optimize an unknown function f that is noisy and costly to evaluate, by exploiting an acquisition function that must be maximized at each optimization step. Even if provably asymptotically optimal BO algorithms are efficient at optimizing low-dimensional functions, scaling them to high-dimensional spaces remains an open problem, often tackled by assuming an additive structure for f. By doing so, BO algorithms typically introduce additional restrictive assumptions on the additive structure that reduce their applicability domain. This paper contains two main contributions: (i) we relax the restrictive assumptions on the additive structure of f without weakening the maximization guarantees of the acquisition function, and (ii) we address the over-exploration problem for decentralized BO algorithms. To these ends, we propose DuMBO, an asymptotically optimal decentralized BO algorithm that achieves very competitive performance against state-of-the-art BO algorithms, especially when the additive structure of f comprises high-dimensional factors.

We introduce a general framework for solving partial differential equations (PDEs) using generative diffusion models. In particular, we focus on the scenarios where we do not have the full knowledge of the scene necessary to apply classical solvers. Most existing forward or inverse PDE approaches perform poorly when the observations on the data or the underlying coefficients are incomplete, which is a common assumption for real-world measurements. In this work, we propose DiffusionPDE that can simultaneously fill in the missing information and solve a PDE by modeling the joint distribution of the solution and coefficient spaces. We show that the learned generative priors lead to a versatile framework for accurately solving a wide range of PDEs under partial observation, significantly outperforming the state-of-the-art methods for both forward and inverse directions.

Estimating the uncertainty of responses of Large Language Models~(LLMs) remains a critical challenge. While recent Bayesian methods have demonstrated effectiveness in quantifying uncertainty through low-rank weight updates, they typically require complex fine-tuning or post-training procedures. In this paper, we propose Training-Free Bayesianization~(TFB), a novel framework that transforms existing off-the-shelf trained LoRA adapters into Bayesian ones without additional training. TFB systematically searches for the maximally acceptable level of variance in the weight posterior, constrained within a family of low-rank isotropic Gaussian distributions. We theoretically demonstrate that under mild conditions, this search process is equivalent to variational inference for the weights. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that TFB achieves superior uncertainty estimation and generalization compared to existing methods while eliminating the need for complex training procedures. Code will be available at https://github.com/Wang-ML-Lab/bayesian-peft.

Given time series data, how can we answer questions like "what will happen in the future?" and "how did we get here?" These sorts of probabilistic inference questions are challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In this paper, we show how these questions can have compact, closed form solutions in terms of learned representations. The key idea is to apply a variant of contrastive learning to time series data. Prior work already shows that the representations learned by contrastive learning encode a probability ratio. By extending prior work to show that the marginal distribution over representations is Gaussian, we can then prove that joint distribution of representations is also Gaussian. Taken together, these results show that representations learned via temporal contrastive learning follow a Gauss-Markov chain, a graphical model where inference (e.g., prediction, planning) over representations corresponds to inverting a low-dimensional matrix. In one special case, inferring intermediate representations will be equivalent to interpolating between the learned representations. We validate our theory using numerical simulations on tasks up to 46-dimensions.

We propose efficient Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms for sampling distributions with nonsmooth convex composite potentials, which is the sum of a continuously differentiable function and a possibly nonsmooth function. We devise such algorithms leveraging recent advances in convex analysis and optimization methods involving Bregman divergences, namely the Bregman--Moreau envelopes and the Bregman proximity operators, and in the Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms reminiscent of mirror descent. The proposed algorithms extend existing Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms in two aspects -- the ability to sample nonsmooth distributions with mirror descent-like algorithms, and the use of the more general Bregman--Moreau envelope in place of the Moreau envelope as a smooth approximation of the nonsmooth part of the potential. A particular case of the proposed scheme is reminiscent of the Bregman proximal gradient algorithm. The efficiency of the proposed methodology is illustrated with various sampling tasks at which existing Langevin Monte Carlo methods are known to perform poorly.

We introduce a new family of particle evolution samplers suitable for constrained domains and non-Euclidean geometries. Stein Variational Mirror Descent and Mirrored Stein Variational Gradient Descent minimize the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to constrained target distributions by evolving particles in a dual space defined by a mirror map. Stein Variational Natural Gradient exploits non-Euclidean geometry to more efficiently minimize the KL divergence to unconstrained targets. We derive these samplers from a new class of mirrored Stein operators and adaptive kernels developed in this work. We demonstrate that these new samplers yield accurate approximations to distributions on the simplex, deliver valid confidence intervals in post-selection inference, and converge more rapidly than prior methods in large-scale unconstrained posterior inference. Finally, we establish the convergence of our new procedures under verifiable conditions on the target distribution.

We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent flexible preference structure, is that the posterior distribution is a computationally intractable skew GP. The most widely used approach for preferential BO is Gaussian approximation, which ignores the skewness of the true posterior. Alternatively, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based preferential BO is also proposed. In this work, we first verify the accuracy of Gaussian approximation, from which we reveal the critical problem that the predictive probability of duels can be inaccurate. This observation motivates us to improve the MCMC-based estimation for skew GP, for which we show the practical efficiency of Gibbs sampling and derive the low variance MC estimator. However, the computational time of MCMC can still be a bottleneck in practice. Towards building a more practical preferential BO, we develop a new method that achieves both high computational efficiency and low sample complexity, and then demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive numerical experiments.

We propose a new method for solving imaging inverse problems using text-to-image latent diffusion models as general priors. Existing methods using latent diffusion models for inverse problems typically rely on simple null text prompts, which can lead to suboptimal performance. To address this limitation, we introduce a method for prompt tuning, which jointly optimizes the text embedding on-the-fly while running the reverse diffusion process. This allows us to generate images that are more faithful to the diffusion prior. In addition, we propose a method to keep the evolution of latent variables within the range space of the encoder, by projection. This helps to reduce image artifacts, a major problem when using latent diffusion models instead of pixel-based diffusion models. Our combined method, called P2L, outperforms both image- and latent-diffusion model-based inverse problem solvers on a variety of tasks, such as super-resolution, deblurring, and inpainting.

Image denoisers have been shown to be powerful priors for solving inverse problems in imaging. In this work, we introduce a generalization of these methods that allows any image restoration network to be used as an implicit prior. The proposed method uses priors specified by deep neural networks pre-trained as general restoration operators. The method provides a principled approach for adapting state-of-the-art restoration models for other inverse problems. Our theoretical result analyzes its convergence to a stationary point of a global functional associated with the restoration operator. Numerical results show that the method using a super-resolution prior achieves state-of-the-art performance both quantitatively and qualitatively. Overall, this work offers a step forward for solving inverse problems by enabling the use of powerful pre-trained restoration models as priors.

Diffusion model-based inverse problem solvers have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in cases where the forward operator is known (i.e. non-blind). However, the applicability of the method to blind inverse problems has yet to be explored. In this work, we show that we can indeed solve a family of blind inverse problems by constructing another diffusion prior for the forward operator. Specifically, parallel reverse diffusion guided by gradients from the intermediate stages enables joint optimization of both the forward operator parameters as well as the image, such that both are jointly estimated at the end of the parallel reverse diffusion procedure. We show the efficacy of our method on two representative tasks -- blind deblurring, and imaging through turbulence -- and show that our method yields state-of-the-art performance, while also being flexible to be applicable to general blind inverse problems when we know the functional forms.

We show that taking the width and depth to infinity in a deep neural network with skip connections, when branches are scaled by 1/depth (the only nontrivial scaling), result in the same covariance structure no matter how that limit is taken. This explains why the standard infinite-width-then-depth approach provides practical insights even for networks with depth of the same order as width. We also demonstrate that the pre-activations, in this case, have Gaussian distributions which has direct applications in Bayesian deep learning. We conduct extensive simulations that show an excellent match with our theoretical findings.

Ensembles of independently trained neural networks are a state-of-the-art approach to estimate predictive uncertainty in Deep Learning, and can be interpreted as an approximation of the posterior distribution via a mixture of delta functions. The training of ensembles relies on non-convexity of the loss landscape and random initialization of their individual members, making the resulting posterior approximation uncontrolled. This paper proposes a novel and principled method to tackle this limitation, minimizing an f-divergence between the true posterior and a kernel density estimator (KDE) in a function space. We analyze this objective from a combinatorial point of view, and show that it is submodular with respect to mixture components for any f. Subsequently, we consider the problem of greedy ensemble construction. From the marginal gain on the negative f-divergence, which quantifies an improvement in posterior approximation yielded by adding a new component into the KDE, we derive a novel diversity term for ensemble methods. The performance of our approach is demonstrated on computer vision out-of-distribution detection benchmarks in a range of architectures trained on multiple datasets. The source code of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/greedy_ensembles_training.

Clustering is a widely deployed unsupervised learning tool. Model-based clustering is a flexible framework to tackle data heterogeneity when the clusters have different shapes. Likelihood-based inference for mixture distributions often involves non-convex and high-dimensional objective functions, imposing difficult computational and statistical challenges. The classic expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a computationally thrifty iterative method that maximizes a surrogate function minorizing the log-likelihood of observed data in each iteration, which however suffers from bad local maxima even in the special case of the standard Gaussian mixture model with common isotropic covariance matrices. On the other hand, recent studies reveal that the unique global solution of a semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxed K-means achieves the information-theoretically sharp threshold for perfectly recovering the cluster labels under the standard Gaussian mixture model. In this paper, we extend the SDP approach to a general setting by integrating cluster labels as model parameters and propose an iterative likelihood adjusted SDP (iLA-SDP) method that directly maximizes the exact observed likelihood in the presence of data heterogeneity. By lifting the cluster assignment to group-specific membership matrices, iLA-SDP avoids centroids estimation -- a key feature that allows exact recovery under well-separateness of centroids without being trapped by their adversarial configurations. Thus iLA-SDP is less sensitive than EM to initialization and more stable on high-dimensional data. Our numeric experiments demonstrate that iLA-SDP can achieve lower mis-clustering errors over several widely used clustering methods including K-means, SDP and EM algorithms.

Recent work showed that large diffusion models can be reused as highly precise monocular depth estimators by casting depth estimation as an image-conditional image generation task. While the proposed model achieved state-of-the-art results, high computational demands due to multi-step inference limited its use in many scenarios. In this paper, we show that the perceived inefficiency was caused by a flaw in the inference pipeline that has so far gone unnoticed. The fixed model performs comparably to the best previously reported configuration while being more than 200times faster. To optimize for downstream task performance, we perform end-to-end fine-tuning on top of the single-step model with task-specific losses and get a deterministic model that outperforms all other diffusion-based depth and normal estimation models on common zero-shot benchmarks. We surprisingly find that this fine-tuning protocol also works directly on Stable Diffusion and achieves comparable performance to current state-of-the-art diffusion-based depth and normal estimation models, calling into question some of the conclusions drawn from prior works.

We consider the problem of estimating (diagonally dominant) M-matrices as precision matrices in Gaussian graphical models. These models exhibit intriguing properties, such as the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator with merely two observations for M-matrices lauritzen2019maximum,slawski2015estimation and even one observation for diagonally dominant M-matrices truell2021maximum. We propose an adaptive multiple-stage estimation method that refines the estimate by solving a weighted ell_1-regularized problem at each stage. Furthermore, we develop a unified framework based on the gradient projection method to solve the regularized problem, incorporating distinct projections to handle the constraints of M-matrices and diagonally dominant M-matrices. A theoretical analysis of the estimation error is provided. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in precision matrix estimation and graph edge identification, as evidenced by synthetic and financial time-series data sets.