Get trending papers in your email inbox once a day!
Get trending papers in your email inbox!
SubscribeEvaluating Large Language Models for Health-Related Text Classification Tasks with Public Social Media Data
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable success in NLP tasks. However, there is a paucity of studies that attempt to evaluate their performances on social media-based health-related natural language processing tasks, which have traditionally been difficult to achieve high scores in. We benchmarked one supervised classic machine learning model based on Support Vector Machines (SVMs), three supervised pretrained language models (PLMs) based on RoBERTa, BERTweet, and SocBERT, and two LLM based classifiers (GPT3.5 and GPT4), across 6 text classification tasks. We developed three approaches for leveraging LLMs for text classification: employing LLMs as zero-shot classifiers, us-ing LLMs as annotators to annotate training data for supervised classifiers, and utilizing LLMs with few-shot examples for augmentation of manually annotated data. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate that employ-ing data augmentation using LLMs (GPT-4) with relatively small human-annotated data to train lightweight supervised classification models achieves superior results compared to training with human-annotated data alone. Supervised learners also outperform GPT-4 and GPT-3.5 in zero-shot settings. By leveraging this data augmentation strategy, we can harness the power of LLMs to develop smaller, more effective domain-specific NLP models. LLM-annotated data without human guidance for training light-weight supervised classification models is an ineffective strategy. However, LLM, as a zero-shot classifier, shows promise in excluding false negatives and potentially reducing the human effort required for data annotation. Future investigations are imperative to explore optimal training data sizes and the optimal amounts of augmented data.
Explainable Automated Fact-Checking for Public Health Claims
Fact-checking is the task of verifying the veracity of claims by assessing their assertions against credible evidence. The vast majority of fact-checking studies focus exclusively on political claims. Very little research explores fact-checking for other topics, specifically subject matters for which expertise is required. We present the first study of explainable fact-checking for claims which require specific expertise. For our case study we choose the setting of public health. To support this case study we construct a new dataset PUBHEALTH of 11.8K claims accompanied by journalist crafted, gold standard explanations (i.e., judgments) to support the fact-check labels for claims. We explore two tasks: veracity prediction and explanation generation. We also define and evaluate, with humans and computationally, three coherence properties of explanation quality. Our results indicate that, by training on in-domain data, gains can be made in explainable, automated fact-checking for claims which require specific expertise.
Should we tweet this? Generative response modeling for predicting reception of public health messaging on Twitter
The way people respond to messaging from public health organizations on social media can provide insight into public perceptions on critical health issues, especially during a global crisis such as COVID-19. It could be valuable for high-impact organizations such as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or the World Health Organization (WHO) to understand how these perceptions impact reception of messaging on health policy recommendations. We collect two datasets of public health messages and their responses from Twitter relating to COVID-19 and Vaccines, and introduce a predictive method which can be used to explore the potential reception of such messages. Specifically, we harness a generative model (GPT-2) to directly predict probable future responses and demonstrate how it can be used to optimize expected reception of important health guidance. Finally, we introduce a novel evaluation scheme with extensive statistical testing which allows us to conclude that our models capture the semantics and sentiment found in actual public health responses.
Benchmarking for Public Health Surveillance tasks on Social Media with a Domain-Specific Pretrained Language Model
A user-generated text on social media enables health workers to keep track of information, identify possible outbreaks, forecast disease trends, monitor emergency cases, and ascertain disease awareness and response to official health correspondence. This exchange of health information on social media has been regarded as an attempt to enhance public health surveillance (PHS). Despite its potential, the technology is still in its early stages and is not ready for widespread application. Advancements in pretrained language models (PLMs) have facilitated the development of several domain-specific PLMs and a variety of downstream applications. However, there are no PLMs for social media tasks involving PHS. We present and release PHS-BERT, a transformer-based PLM, to identify tasks related to public health surveillance on social media. We compared and benchmarked the performance of PHS-BERT on 25 datasets from different social medial platforms related to 7 different PHS tasks. Compared with existing PLMs that are mainly evaluated on limited tasks, PHS-BERT achieved state-of-the-art performance on all 25 tested datasets, showing that our PLM is robust and generalizable in the common PHS tasks. By making PHS-BERT available, we aim to facilitate the community to reduce the computational cost and introduce new baselines for future works across various PHS-related tasks.
Leveraging Natural Language Processing For Public Health Screening On YouTube: A COVID-19 Case Study
Background: Social media platforms have become a viable source of medical information, with patients and healthcare professionals using them to share health-related information and track diseases. Similarly, YouTube, the largest video-sharing platform in the world contains vlogs where individuals talk about their illnesses. The aim of our study was to investigate the use of Natural Language Processing (NLP) to identify the spoken content of YouTube vlogs related to the diagnosis of Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) for public health screening. Methods: COVID-19 videos on YouTube were searched using relevant keywords. A total of 1000 videos being spoken in English were downloaded out of which 791 were classified as vlogs, 192 were non-vlogs, and 17 were deleted by the channel. The videos were converted into a textual format using Microsoft Streams. The textual data was preprocessed using basic and advanced preprocessing methods. A lexicon of 200 words was created which contained words related to COVID-19. The data was analyzed using topic modeling, word clouds, and lexicon matching. Results: The word cloud results revealed discussions about COVID-19 symptoms like "fever", along with generic terms such as "mask" and "isolation". Lexical analysis demonstrated that in 96.46% of videos, patients discussed generic terms, and in 95.45% of videos, people talked about COVID-19 symptoms. LDA Topic Modeling results also generated topics that successfully captured key themes and content related to our investigation of COVID-19 diagnoses in YouTube vlogs. Conclusion: By leveraging NLP techniques on YouTube vlogs public health practitioners can enhance their ability to mitigate the effects of pandemics and effectively respond to public health challenges.
DengueNet: Dengue Prediction using Spatiotemporal Satellite Imagery for Resource-Limited Countries
Dengue fever presents a substantial challenge in developing countries where sanitation infrastructure is inadequate. The absence of comprehensive healthcare systems exacerbates the severity of dengue infections, potentially leading to life-threatening circumstances. Rapid response to dengue outbreaks is also challenging due to limited information exchange and integration. While timely dengue outbreak forecasts have the potential to prevent such outbreaks, the majority of dengue prediction studies have predominantly relied on data that impose significant burdens on individual countries for collection. In this study, our aim is to improve health equity in resource-constrained countries by exploring the effectiveness of high-resolution satellite imagery as a nontraditional and readily accessible data source. By leveraging the wealth of publicly available and easily obtainable satellite imagery, we present a scalable satellite extraction framework based on Sentinel Hub, a cloud-based computing platform. Furthermore, we introduce DengueNet, an innovative architecture that combines Vision Transformer, Radiomics, and Long Short-term Memory to extract and integrate spatiotemporal features from satellite images. This enables dengue predictions on an epi-week basis. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method, we conducted experiments on five municipalities in Colombia. We utilized a dataset comprising 780 high-resolution Sentinel-2 satellite images for training and evaluation. The performance of DengueNet was assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE) metric. Across the five municipalities, DengueNet achieved an average MAE of 43.92. Our findings strongly support the efficacy of satellite imagery as a valuable resource for dengue prediction, particularly in informing public health policies within countries where manually collected data is scarce and dengue virus prevalence is severe.
A Large-Scale Dataset of Search Interests Related to Disease X Originating from Different Geographic Regions
The World Health Organization added Disease X to their shortlist of blueprint priority diseases to represent a hypothetical, unknown pathogen that could cause a future epidemic. During different virus outbreaks of the past, such as COVID-19, Influenza, Lyme Disease, and Zika virus, researchers from various disciplines utilized Google Trends to mine multimodal components of web behavior to study, investigate, and analyze the global awareness, preparedness, and response associated with these respective virus outbreaks. As the world prepares for Disease X, a dataset on web behavior related to Disease X would be crucial to contribute towards the timely advancement of research in this field. Furthermore, none of the prior works in this field have focused on the development of a dataset to compile relevant web behavior data, which would help to prepare for Disease X. To address these research challenges, this work presents a dataset of web behavior related to Disease X, which emerged from different geographic regions of the world, between February 2018 and August 2023. Specifically, this dataset presents the search interests related to Disease X from 94 geographic regions. The dataset was developed by collecting data using Google Trends. The relevant search interests for all these regions for each month in this time range are available in this dataset. This paper also discusses the compliance of this dataset with the FAIR principles of scientific data management. Finally, an analysis of this dataset is presented to uphold the applicability, relevance, and usefulness of this dataset for the investigation of different research questions in the interrelated fields of Big Data, Data Mining, Healthcare, Epidemiology, and Data Analysis with a specific focus on Disease X.
SDOH-NLI: a Dataset for Inferring Social Determinants of Health from Clinical Notes
Social and behavioral determinants of health (SDOH) play a significant role in shaping health outcomes, and extracting these determinants from clinical notes is a first step to help healthcare providers systematically identify opportunities to provide appropriate care and address disparities. Progress on using NLP methods for this task has been hindered by the lack of high-quality publicly available labeled data, largely due to the privacy and regulatory constraints on the use of real patients' information. This paper introduces a new dataset, SDOH-NLI, that is based on publicly available notes and which we release publicly. We formulate SDOH extraction as a natural language inference (NLI) task, and provide binary textual entailment labels obtained from human raters for a cross product of a set of social history snippets as premises and SDOH factors as hypotheses. Our dataset differs from standard NLI benchmarks in that our premises and hypotheses are obtained independently. We evaluate both "off-the-shelf" entailment models as well as models fine-tuned on our data, and highlight the ways in which our dataset appears more challenging than commonly used NLI datasets.
The Health Gym: Synthetic Health-Related Datasets for the Development of Reinforcement Learning Algorithms
In recent years, the machine learning research community has benefited tremendously from the availability of openly accessible benchmark datasets. Clinical data are usually not openly available due to their highly confidential nature. This has hampered the development of reproducible and generalisable machine learning applications in health care. Here we introduce the Health Gym - a growing collection of highly realistic synthetic medical datasets that can be freely accessed to prototype, evaluate, and compare machine learning algorithms, with a specific focus on reinforcement learning. The three synthetic datasets described in this paper present patient cohorts with acute hypotension and sepsis in the intensive care unit, and people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) receiving antiretroviral therapy in ambulatory care. The datasets were created using a novel generative adversarial network (GAN). The distributions of variables, and correlations between variables and trends over time in the synthetic datasets mirror those in the real datasets. Furthermore, the risk of sensitive information disclosure associated with the public distribution of the synthetic datasets is estimated to be very low.
ASHABot: An LLM-Powered Chatbot to Support the Informational Needs of Community Health Workers
Community health workers (CHWs) provide last-mile healthcare services but face challenges due to limited medical knowledge and training. This paper describes the design, deployment, and evaluation of ASHABot, an LLM-powered, experts-in-the-loop, WhatsApp-based chatbot to address the information needs of CHWs in India. Through interviews with CHWs and their supervisors and log analysis, we examine factors affecting their engagement with ASHABot, and ASHABot's role in addressing CHWs' informational needs. We found that ASHABot provided a private channel for CHWs to ask rudimentary and sensitive questions they hesitated to ask supervisors. CHWs trusted the information they received on ASHABot and treated it as an authoritative resource. CHWs' supervisors expanded their knowledge by contributing answers to questions ASHABot failed to answer, but were concerned about demands on their workload and increased accountability. We emphasize positioning LLMs as supplemental fallible resources within the community healthcare ecosystem, instead of as replacements for supervisor support.
Study of the effectiveness of incentive measures on Covid-19 vaccination in the United States of America
With COVID-19 having emerged as the most widespread human pandemic disease in a century, the need to control its spread to avoid massive loss of life became more than necessary, and extremely fast. Several vaccines were developed and the task of policy makers was suddenly to convince the reluctant population to be vaccinated by various means. While some countries have chosen a policy of mandatory vaccination or punitive incentives, many states in the United States have adopted various incentives to try to increase vaccination coverage. A study we conducted in recent months quantified the effect of these measures on the proportion of the population vaccinated, using the synthetic control method, by simulating what would have happened without these measures. The aim now is to generalize this study to smaller scales, to improve the results of our previous study, to quantify their robustness and to provide a tool that can be used by policy makers to adapt their behavior in light of the results obtained.
COVID-19 what have we learned? The rise of social machines and connected devices in pandemic management following the concepts of predictive, preventive and personalised medicine
A comprehensive bibliographic review with R statistical methods of the COVID pandemic in PubMed literature and Web of Science Core Collection, supported with Google Scholar search. In addition, a case study review of emerging new approaches in different regions, using medical literature, academic literature, news articles and other reliable data sources. Public responses of mistrust about privacy data misuse differ across countries, depending on the chosen public communication strategy.
SMHD: A Large-Scale Resource for Exploring Online Language Usage for Multiple Mental Health Conditions
Mental health is a significant and growing public health concern. As language usage can be leveraged to obtain crucial insights into mental health conditions, there is a need for large-scale, labeled, mental health-related datasets of users who have been diagnosed with one or more of such conditions. In this paper, we investigate the creation of high-precision patterns to identify self-reported diagnoses of nine different mental health conditions, and obtain high-quality labeled data without the need for manual labelling. We introduce the SMHD (Self-reported Mental Health Diagnoses) dataset and make it available. SMHD is a novel large dataset of social media posts from users with one or multiple mental health conditions along with matched control users. We examine distinctions in users' language, as measured by linguistic and psychological variables. We further explore text classification methods to identify individuals with mental conditions through their language.
PATIENT-Ψ: Using Large Language Models to Simulate Patients for Training Mental Health Professionals
Mental illness remains one of the most critical public health issues. Despite its importance, many mental health professionals highlight a disconnect between their training and actual real-world patient practice. To help bridge this gap, we propose PATIENT-{\Psi}, a novel patient simulation framework for cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) training. To build PATIENT-{\Psi}, we construct diverse patient cognitive models based on CBT principles and use large language models (LLMs) programmed with these cognitive models to act as a simulated therapy patient. We propose an interactive training scheme, PATIENT-{\Psi}-TRAINER, for mental health trainees to practice a key skill in CBT -- formulating the cognitive model of the patient -- through role-playing a therapy session with PATIENT-{\Psi}. To evaluate PATIENT-{\Psi}, we conducted a comprehensive user study of 13 mental health trainees and 20 experts. The results demonstrate that practice using PATIENT-{\Psi}-TRAINER enhances the perceived skill acquisition and confidence of the trainees beyond existing forms of training such as textbooks, videos, and role-play with non-patients. Based on the experts' perceptions, PATIENT-{\Psi} is perceived to be closer to real patient interactions than GPT-4, and PATIENT-{\Psi}-TRAINER holds strong promise to improve trainee competencies. Our code and data are released at https://github.com/ruiyiw/patient-psi.
In-Context Learning for Preserving Patient Privacy: A Framework for Synthesizing Realistic Patient Portal Messages
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, clinicians have seen a large and sustained influx in patient portal messages, significantly contributing to clinician burnout. To the best of our knowledge, there are no large-scale public patient portal messages corpora researchers can use to build tools to optimize clinician portal workflows. Informed by our ongoing work with a regional hospital, this study introduces an LLM-powered framework for configurable and realistic patient portal message generation. Our approach leverages few-shot grounded text generation, requiring only a small number of de-identified patient portal messages to help LLMs better match the true style and tone of real data. Clinical experts in our team deem this framework as HIPAA-friendly, unlike existing privacy-preserving approaches to synthetic text generation which cannot guarantee all sensitive attributes will be protected. Through extensive quantitative and human evaluation, we show that our framework produces data of higher quality than comparable generation methods as well as all related datasets. We believe this work provides a path forward for (i) the release of large-scale synthetic patient message datasets that are stylistically similar to ground-truth samples and (ii) HIPAA-friendly data generation which requires minimal human de-identification efforts.
Causal Modeling of Twitter Activity During COVID-19
Understanding the characteristics of public attention and sentiment is an essential prerequisite for appropriate crisis management during adverse health events. This is even more crucial during a pandemic such as COVID-19, as primary responsibility of risk management is not centralized to a single institution, but distributed across society. While numerous studies utilize Twitter data in descriptive or predictive context during COVID-19 pandemic, causal modeling of public attention has not been investigated. In this study, we propose a causal inference approach to discover and quantify causal relationships between pandemic characteristics (e.g. number of infections and deaths) and Twitter activity as well as public sentiment. Our results show that the proposed method can successfully capture the epidemiological domain knowledge and identify variables that affect public attention and sentiment. We believe our work contributes to the field of infodemiology by distinguishing events that correlate with public attention from events that cause public attention.
The opportunities and risks of large language models in mental health
Global rates of mental health concerns are rising and there is increasing realization that existing models of mental healthcare will not adequately expand to meet the demand. With the emergence of large language models (LLMs) has come great optimism regarding their promise to create novel, large-scale solutions to support mental health. Despite their nascence, LLMs have already been applied to mental health-related tasks. In this review, we summarize the extant literature on efforts to use LLMs to provide mental health education, assessment, and intervention and highlight key opportunities for positive impact in each area. We then highlight risks associated with LLMs application to mental health and encourage adoption of strategies to mitigate these risks. The urgent need for mental health support must be balanced with responsible development, testing, and deployment of mental health LLMs. Especially critical is ensuring that mental health LLMs are fine-tuned for mental health, enhance mental health equity, adhere to ethical standards, and that people, including those with lived experience with mental health concerns, are involved in all stages from development through deployment. Prioritizing these efforts will minimize potential harms to mental health and maximize the likelihood that LLMs will positively impact mental health globally.
Rapid Biomedical Research Classification: The Pandemic PACT Advanced Categorisation Engine
This paper introduces the Pandemic PACT Advanced Categorisation Engine (PPACE) along with its associated dataset. PPACE is a fine-tuned model developed to automatically classify research abstracts from funded biomedical projects according to WHO-aligned research priorities. This task is crucial for monitoring research trends and identifying gaps in global health preparedness and response. Our approach builds on human-annotated projects, which are allocated one or more categories from a predefined list. A large language model is then used to generate `rationales' explaining the reasoning behind these annotations. This augmented data, comprising expert annotations and rationales, is subsequently used to fine-tune a smaller, more efficient model. Developed as part of the Pandemic PACT project, which aims to track and analyse research funding and clinical evidence for a wide range of diseases with outbreak potential, PPACE supports informed decision-making by research funders, policymakers, and independent researchers. We introduce and release both the trained model and the instruction-based dataset used for its training. Our evaluation shows that PPACE significantly outperforms its baselines. The release of PPACE and its associated dataset offers valuable resources for researchers in multilabel biomedical document classification and supports advancements in aligning biomedical research with key global health priorities.
Twitter conversations predict the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases
As of writing this paper, COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) has spread to more than 220 countries and territories. Following the outbreak, the pandemic's seriousness has made people more active on social media, especially on the microblogging platforms such as Twitter and Weibo. The pandemic-specific discourse has remained on-trend on these platforms for months now. Previous studies have confirmed the contributions of such socially generated conversations towards situational awareness of crisis events. The early forecasts of cases are essential to authorities to estimate the requirements of resources needed to cope with the outgrowths of the virus. Therefore, this study attempts to incorporate the public discourse in the design of forecasting models particularly targeted for the steep-hill region of an ongoing wave. We propose a sentiment-involved topic-based latent variables search methodology for designing forecasting models from publicly available Twitter conversations. As a use case, we implement the proposed methodology on Australian COVID-19 daily cases and Twitter conversations generated within the country. Experimental results: (i) show the presence of latent social media variables that Granger-cause the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases, and (ii) confirm that those variables offer additional prediction capability to forecasting models. Further, the results show that the inclusion of social media variables introduces 48.83--51.38% improvements on RMSE over the baseline models. We also release the large-scale COVID-19 specific geotagged global tweets dataset, MegaGeoCOV, to the public anticipating that the geotagged data of this scale would aid in understanding the conversational dynamics of the pandemic through other spatial and temporal contexts.
Understanding the Impact of Long-Term Memory on Self-Disclosure with Large Language Model-Driven Chatbots for Public Health Intervention
Recent large language models (LLMs) offer the potential to support public health monitoring by facilitating health disclosure through open-ended conversations but rarely preserve the knowledge gained about individuals across repeated interactions. Augmenting LLMs with long-term memory (LTM) presents an opportunity to improve engagement and self-disclosure, but we lack an understanding of how LTM impacts people's interaction with LLM-driven chatbots in public health interventions. We examine the case of CareCall -- an LLM-driven voice chatbot with LTM -- through the analysis of 1,252 call logs and interviews with nine users. We found that LTM enhanced health disclosure and fostered positive perceptions of the chatbot by offering familiarity. However, we also observed challenges in promoting self-disclosure through LTM, particularly around addressing chronic health conditions and privacy concerns. We discuss considerations for LTM integration in LLM-driven chatbots for public health monitoring, including carefully deciding what topics need to be remembered in light of public health goals.
Large Language Models to Identify Social Determinants of Health in Electronic Health Records
Social determinants of health (SDoH) have an important impact on patient outcomes but are incompletely collected from the electronic health records (EHR). This study researched the ability of large language models to extract SDoH from free text in EHRs, where they are most commonly documented, and explored the role of synthetic clinical text for improving the extraction of these scarcely documented, yet extremely valuable, clinical data. 800 patient notes were annotated for SDoH categories, and several transformer-based models were evaluated. The study also experimented with synthetic data generation and assessed for algorithmic bias. Our best-performing models were fine-tuned Flan-T5 XL (macro-F1 0.71) for any SDoH, and Flan-T5 XXL (macro-F1 0.70). The benefit of augmenting fine-tuning with synthetic data varied across model architecture and size, with smaller Flan-T5 models (base and large) showing the greatest improvements in performance (delta F1 +0.12 to +0.23). Model performance was similar on the in-hospital system dataset but worse on the MIMIC-III dataset. Our best-performing fine-tuned models outperformed zero- and few-shot performance of ChatGPT-family models for both tasks. These fine-tuned models were less likely than ChatGPT to change their prediction when race/ethnicity and gender descriptors were added to the text, suggesting less algorithmic bias (p<0.05). At the patient-level, our models identified 93.8% of patients with adverse SDoH, while ICD-10 codes captured 2.0%. Our method can effectively extracted SDoH information from clinic notes, performing better compare to GPT zero- and few-shot settings. These models could enhance real-world evidence on SDoH and aid in identifying patients needing social support.
The Drift of #MyBodyMyChoice Discourse on Twitter
#MyBodyMyChoice is a well-known hashtag originally created to advocate for women's rights, often used in discourse about abortion and bodily autonomy. The Covid-19 outbreak prompted governments to take containment measures such as vaccination campaigns and mask mandates. Population groups opposed to such measures started to use the slogan "My Body My Choice" to claim their bodily autonomy. In this paper, we investigate whether the discourse around the hashtag #MyBodyMyChoice on Twitter changed its usage after the Covid-19 outbreak. We observe that the conversation around the hashtag changed in two ways. First, semantically, the hashtag #MyBodyMyChoice drifted towards conversations around Covid-19, especially in messages opposed to containment measures. Second, while before the pandemic users used to share content produced by experts and authorities, after Covid-19 the users' attention has shifted towards individuals.
Perpetual Observational Studies: New strategies to support efficient implementation of observational studies and randomized trials in the infectious diseases arena
The increasing threat of emerging infectious diseases and antimicrobial resistance requires more efficient, high-quality research. Perpetual Observational Studies (POS) nested within a clinical research network can improve planning, quality and efficiency of interventional and observational studies, although real-life benefits and challenges need to be assessed. Ecraid (European Clinical Research Alliance on Infectious Diseases) has initiated POS and will monitor the impact for five specific infectious syndromes.
Generalization in Healthcare AI: Evaluation of a Clinical Large Language Model
Advances in large language models (LLMs) provide new opportunities in healthcare for improved patient care, clinical decision-making, and enhancement of physician and administrator workflows. However, the potential of these models importantly depends on their ability to generalize effectively across clinical environments and populations, a challenge often underestimated in early development. To better understand reasons for these challenges and inform mitigation approaches, we evaluated ClinicLLM, an LLM trained on [HOSPITAL]'s clinical notes, analyzing its performance on 30-day all-cause readmission prediction focusing on variability across hospitals and patient characteristics. We found poorer generalization particularly in hospitals with fewer samples, among patients with government and unspecified insurance, the elderly, and those with high comorbidities. To understand reasons for lack of generalization, we investigated sample sizes for fine-tuning, note content (number of words per note), patient characteristics (comorbidity level, age, insurance type, borough), and health system aspects (hospital, all-cause 30-day readmission, and mortality rates). We used descriptive statistics and supervised classification to identify features. We found that, along with sample size, patient age, number of comorbidities, and the number of words in notes are all important factors related to generalization. Finally, we compared local fine-tuning (hospital specific), instance-based augmented fine-tuning and cluster-based fine-tuning for improving generalization. Among these, local fine-tuning proved most effective, increasing AUC by 0.25% to 11.74% (most helpful in settings with limited data). Overall, this study provides new insights for enhancing the deployment of large language models in the societally important domain of healthcare, and improving their performance for broader populations.
CHBench: A Chinese Dataset for Evaluating Health in Large Language Models
With the rapid development of large language models (LLMs), assessing their performance on health-related inquiries has become increasingly essential. It is critical that these models provide accurate and trustworthy health information, as their application in real-world contexts--where misinformation can have serious consequences for individuals seeking medical advice and support--depends on their reliability. In this work, we present CHBench, the first comprehensive Chinese Health-related Benchmark designed to evaluate LLMs' capabilities in understanding physical and mental health across diverse scenarios. CHBench includes 6,493 entries related to mental health and 2,999 entries focused on physical health, covering a broad spectrum of topics. This dataset serves as a foundation for evaluating Chinese LLMs' capacity to comprehend and generate accurate health-related information. Our extensive evaluations of four popular Chinese LLMs demonstrate that there remains considerable room for improvement in their understanding of health-related information. The code is available at https://github.com/TracyGuo2001/CHBench.
Synthetic Observational Health Data with GANs: from slow adoption to a boom in medical research and ultimately digital twins?
After being collected for patient care, Observational Health Data (OHD) can further benefit patient well-being by sustaining the development of health informatics and medical research. Vast potential is unexploited because of the fiercely private nature of patient-related data and regulations to protect it. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have recently emerged as a groundbreaking way to learn generative models that produce realistic synthetic data. They have revolutionized practices in multiple domains such as self-driving cars, fraud detection, digital twin simulations in industrial sectors, and medical imaging. The digital twin concept could readily apply to modelling and quantifying disease progression. In addition, GANs posses many capabilities relevant to common problems in healthcare: lack of data, class imbalance, rare diseases, and preserving privacy. Unlocking open access to privacy-preserving OHD could be transformative for scientific research. In the midst of COVID-19, the healthcare system is facing unprecedented challenges, many of which of are data related for the reasons stated above. Considering these facts, publications concerning GAN applied to OHD seemed to be severely lacking. To uncover the reasons for this slow adoption, we broadly reviewed the published literature on the subject. Our findings show that the properties of OHD were initially challenging for the existing GAN algorithms (unlike medical imaging, for which state-of-the-art model were directly transferable) and the evaluation synthetic data lacked clear metrics. We find more publications on the subject than expected, starting slowly in 2017, and since then at an increasing rate. The difficulties of OHD remain, and we discuss issues relating to evaluation, consistency, benchmarking, data modelling, and reproducibility.
Integrating Earth Observation Data into Causal Inference: Challenges and Opportunities
Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.
Modelling Major Disease Outbreaks in the 21st Century: A Causal Approach
Epidemiologists aiming to model the dynamics of global events face a significant challenge in identifying the factors linked with anomalies such as disease outbreaks. In this paper, we present a novel method for identifying the most important development sectors sensitive to disease outbreaks by using global development indicators as markers. We use statistical methods to assess the causative linkages between these indicators and disease outbreaks, as well as to find the most often ranked indicators. We used data imputation techniques in addition to statistical analysis to convert raw real-world data sets into meaningful data for causal inference. The application of various algorithms for the detection of causal linkages between the indicators is the subject of this research. Despite the fact that disparities in governmental policies between countries account for differences in causal linkages, several indicators emerge as important determinants sensitive to disease outbreaks over the world in the 21st Century.
A Comprehensive Benchmark for COVID-19 Predictive Modeling Using Electronic Health Records in Intensive Care
The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a heavy burden to the healthcare system worldwide and caused huge social disruption and economic loss. Many deep learning models have been proposed to conduct clinical predictive tasks such as mortality prediction for COVID-19 patients in intensive care units using Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. Despite their initial success in certain clinical applications, there is currently a lack of benchmarking results to achieve a fair comparison so that we can select the optimal model for clinical use. Furthermore, there is a discrepancy between the formulation of traditional prediction tasks and real-world clinical practice in intensive care. To fill these gaps, we propose two clinical prediction tasks, Outcome-specific length-of-stay prediction and Early mortality prediction for COVID-19 patients in intensive care units. The two tasks are adapted from the naive length-of-stay and mortality prediction tasks to accommodate the clinical practice for COVID-19 patients. We propose fair, detailed, open-source data-preprocessing pipelines and evaluate 17 state-of-the-art predictive models on two tasks, including 5 machine learning models, 6 basic deep learning models and 6 deep learning predictive models specifically designed for EHR data. We provide benchmarking results using data from two real-world COVID-19 EHR datasets. One dataset is publicly available without needing any inquiry and another dataset can be accessed on request. We provide fair, reproducible benchmarking results for two tasks. We deploy all experiment results and models on an online platform. We also allow clinicians and researchers to upload their data to the platform and get quick prediction results using our trained models. We hope our efforts can further facilitate deep learning and machine learning research for COVID-19 predictive modeling.
Evaluation of GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 for supporting real-world information needs in healthcare delivery
Despite growing interest in using large language models (LLMs) in healthcare, current explorations do not assess the real-world utility and safety of LLMs in clinical settings. Our objective was to determine whether two LLMs can serve information needs submitted by physicians as questions to an informatics consultation service in a safe and concordant manner. Sixty six questions from an informatics consult service were submitted to GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 via simple prompts. 12 physicians assessed the LLM responses' possibility of patient harm and concordance with existing reports from an informatics consultation service. Physician assessments were summarized based on majority vote. For no questions did a majority of physicians deem either LLM response as harmful. For GPT-3.5, responses to 8 questions were concordant with the informatics consult report, 20 discordant, and 9 were unable to be assessed. There were 29 responses with no majority on "Agree", "Disagree", and "Unable to assess". For GPT-4, responses to 13 questions were concordant, 15 discordant, and 3 were unable to be assessed. There were 35 responses with no majority. Responses from both LLMs were largely devoid of overt harm, but less than 20% of the responses agreed with an answer from an informatics consultation service, responses contained hallucinated references, and physicians were divided on what constitutes harm. These results suggest that while general purpose LLMs are able to provide safe and credible responses, they often do not meet the specific information need of a given question. A definitive evaluation of the usefulness of LLMs in healthcare settings will likely require additional research on prompt engineering, calibration, and custom-tailoring of general purpose models.
Investigating the Relationship Between World Development Indicators and the Occurrence of Disease Outbreaks in the 21st Century: A Case Study
The timely identification of socio-economic sectors vulnerable to a disease outbreak presents an important challenge to the civic authorities and healthcare workers interested in outbreak mitigation measures. This problem was traditionally solved by studying the aberrances in small-scale healthcare data. In this paper, we leverage data driven models to determine the relationship between the trends of World Development Indicators and occurrence of disease outbreaks using worldwide historical data from 2000-2019, and treat it as a classic supervised classification problem. CART based feature selection was employed in an unorthodox fashion to determine the covariates getting affected by the disease outbreak, thus giving the most vulnerable sectors. The result involves a comprehensive analysis of different classification algorithms and is indicative of the relationship between the disease outbreak occurrence and the magnitudes of various development indicators.
Time Series Forecasting of HIV/AIDS in the Philippines Using Deep Learning: Does COVID-19 Epidemic Matter?
With a 676% growth rate in HIV incidence between 2010 and 2021, the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Philippines is the one that is spreading the quickest in the western Pacific. Although the full effects of COVID-19 on HIV services and development are still unknown, it is predicted that such disruptions could lead to a significant increase in HIV casualties. Therefore, the nation needs some modeling and forecasting techniques to foresee the spread pattern and enhance the governments prevention, treatment, testing, and care program. In this study, the researcher uses Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network to forecast time series during the period when the COVID-19 pandemic strikes the nation, using statistics taken from the HIV/AIDS and ART Registry of the Philippines. After training, validation, and testing of data, the study finds that the predicted cumulative cases in the nation by 2030 will reach 145,273. Additionally, there is very little difference between observed and anticipated HIV epidemic levels, as evidenced by reduced RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values as well as a greater coefficient of determination. Further research revealed that the Philippines seems far from achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 of Project 2030 due to an increase in the nations rate of new HIV infections. Despite the detrimental effects of COVID-19 spread on HIV/AIDS efforts nationwide, the Philippine government, under the Marcos administration, must continue to adhere to the United Nations 90-90-90 targets by enhancing its ART program and ensuring that all vital health services are readily accessible and available.
What Makes Digital Support Effective? How Therapeutic Skills Affect Clinical Well-Being
Online mental health support communities have grown in recent years for providing accessible mental and emotional health support through volunteer counselors. Despite millions of people participating in chat support on these platforms, the clinical effectiveness of these communities on mental health symptoms remains unknown. Furthermore, although volunteers receive some training based on established therapeutic skills studied in face-to-face environments such as active listening and motivational interviewing, it remains understudied how the usage of these skills in this online context affects people's mental health status. In our work, we collaborate with one of the largest online peer support platforms and use both natural language processing and machine learning techniques to measure how one-on-one support chats affect depression and anxiety symptoms. We measure how the techniques and characteristics of support providers, such as using affirmation, empathy, and past experience on the platform, affect support-seekers' mental health changes. We find that online peer support chats improve both depression and anxiety symptoms with a statistically significant but relatively small effect size. Additionally, support providers' techniques such as emphasizing the autonomy of the client lead to better mental health outcomes. However, we also found that some behaviors (e.g. persuading) are actually harmful to depression and anxiety outcomes. Our work provides key understanding for mental health care in the online setting and designing training systems for online support providers.
Conceptualizing Suicidal Behavior: Utilizing Explanations of Predicted Outcomes to Analyze Longitudinal Social Media Data
The COVID-19 pandemic has escalated mental health crises worldwide, with social isolation and economic instability contributing to a rise in suicidal behavior. Suicide can result from social factors such as shame, abuse, abandonment, and mental health conditions like depression, Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), anxiety disorders, and bipolar disorders. As these conditions develop, signs of suicidal ideation may manifest in social media interactions. Analyzing social media data using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques can help identify patterns of suicidal behavior, providing invaluable insights for suicide prevention agencies, professionals, and broader community awareness initiatives. Machine learning algorithms for this purpose require large volumes of accurately labeled data. Previous research has not fully explored the potential of incorporating explanations in analyzing and labeling longitudinal social media data. In this study, we employed a model explanation method, Layer Integrated Gradients, on top of a fine-tuned state-of-the-art language model, to assign each token from Reddit users' posts an attribution score for predicting suicidal ideation. By extracting and analyzing attributions of tokens from the data, we propose a methodology for preliminary screening of social media posts for suicidal ideation without using large language models during inference.
A study of a deterministic model for meningitis epidemic
A compartmental deterministic model that allows (1) immunity from two stages of infection and carriage, and (2) disease induced death, is used in studying the dynamics of meningitis epidemic process in a closed population. It allows for difference in the transmission rate of infection to a susceptible by a carrier and an infective. It is generalized to allow a proportion ({\phi}) of those susceptibles infected to progress directly to infectives in stage I. Both models are used in this study. The threshold conditions for the spread of carrier and infectives in stage I are derived for the two models. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the reproductive number derived from the next generation matrix. The case-carrier ratio profile for various parameters and threshold values are shown. So also are the graphs of the total number ever infected as influenced by {\epsilon} and {\phi}. The infection transmission rate (eta), the odds in favor of a carrier, over an infective, in transmitting an infection to a susceptible ({\epsilon}) and the carrier conversion rate ({\phi}) to an infective in stage I, are identified as key parameters that should be subject of attention for any control intervention strategy. The case-carrier ratio profiles provide evidence of a critical case-carrier ratio attained before the number of reported cases grows to an epidemic level. They also provide visual evidence of epidemiological context, in this case, epidemic incidence (in later part of dry season) and endemic incidence (during rainy season). Results from total proportion ever infected suggest that the model, in which {\phi}=0 obtained, can adequately represent, in essence, the generalized model for this study.
Comparing the Efficacy of GPT-4 and Chat-GPT in Mental Health Care: A Blind Assessment of Large Language Models for Psychological Support
Background: Rapid advancements in natural language processing have led to the development of large language models with the potential to revolutionize mental health care. These models have shown promise in assisting clinicians and providing support to individuals experiencing various psychological challenges. Objective: This study aims to compare the performance of two large language models, GPT-4 and Chat-GPT, in responding to a set of 18 psychological prompts, to assess their potential applicability in mental health care settings. Methods: A blind methodology was employed, with a clinical psychologist evaluating the models' responses without knowledge of their origins. The prompts encompassed a diverse range of mental health topics, including depression, anxiety, and trauma, to ensure a comprehensive assessment. Results: The results demonstrated a significant difference in performance between the two models (p > 0.05). GPT-4 achieved an average rating of 8.29 out of 10, while Chat-GPT received an average rating of 6.52. The clinical psychologist's evaluation suggested that GPT-4 was more effective at generating clinically relevant and empathetic responses, thereby providing better support and guidance to potential users. Conclusions: This study contributes to the growing body of literature on the applicability of large language models in mental health care settings. The findings underscore the importance of continued research and development in the field to optimize these models for clinical use. Further investigation is necessary to understand the specific factors underlying the performance differences between the two models and to explore their generalizability across various populations and mental health conditions.
LaTeX: Language Pattern-aware Triggering Event Detection for Adverse Experience during Pandemics
The COVID-19 pandemic has accentuated socioeconomic disparities across various racial and ethnic groups in the United States. While previous studies have utilized traditional survey methods like the Household Pulse Survey (HPS) to elucidate these disparities, this paper explores the role of social media platforms in both highlighting and addressing these challenges. Drawing from real-time data sourced from Twitter, we analyzed language patterns related to four major types of adverse experiences: loss of employment income (LI), food scarcity (FS), housing insecurity (HI), and unmet needs for mental health services (UM). We first formulate a sparsity optimization problem that extracts low-level language features from social media data sources. Second, we propose novel constraints on feature similarity exploiting prior knowledge about the similarity of the language patterns among the adverse experiences. The proposed problem is challenging to solve due to the non-convexity objective and non-smoothness penalties. We develop an algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) framework to solve the proposed formulation. Extensive experiments and comparisons to other models on real-world social media and the detection of adverse experiences justify the efficacy of our model.
What Types of COVID-19 Conspiracies are Populated by Twitter Bots?
With people moving out of physical public spaces due to containment measures to tackle the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, online platforms become even more prominent tools to understand social discussion. Studying social media can be informative to assess how we are collectively coping with this unprecedented global crisis. However, social media platforms are also populated by bots, automated accounts that can amplify certain topics of discussion at the expense of others. In this paper, we study 43.3M English tweets about COVID-19 and provide early evidence of the use of bots to promote political conspiracies in the United States, in stark contrast with humans who focus on public health concerns.
Forecasting Patient Flows with Pandemic Induced Concept Drift using Explainable Machine Learning
Accurately forecasting patient arrivals at Urgent Care Clinics (UCCs) and Emergency Departments (EDs) is important for effective resourcing and patient care. However, correctly estimating patient flows is not straightforward since it depends on many drivers. The predictability of patient arrivals has recently been further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic conditions and the resulting lockdowns. This study investigates how a suite of novel quasi-real-time variables like Google search terms, pedestrian traffic, the prevailing incidence levels of influenza, as well as the COVID-19 Alert Level indicators can both generally improve the forecasting models of patient flows and effectively adapt the models to the unfolding disruptions of pandemic conditions. This research also uniquely contributes to the body of work in this domain by employing tools from the eXplainable AI field to investigate more deeply the internal mechanics of the models than has previously been done. The Voting ensemble-based method combining machine learning and statistical techniques was the most reliable in our experiments. Our study showed that the prevailing COVID-19 Alert Level feature together with Google search terms and pedestrian traffic were effective at producing generalisable forecasts. The implications of this study are that proxy variables can effectively augment standard autoregressive features to ensure accurate forecasting of patient flows. The experiments showed that the proposed features are potentially effective model inputs for preserving forecast accuracies in the event of future pandemic outbreaks.
Rapidly Bootstrapping a Question Answering Dataset for COVID-19
We present CovidQA, the beginnings of a question answering dataset specifically designed for COVID-19, built by hand from knowledge gathered from Kaggle's COVID-19 Open Research Dataset Challenge. To our knowledge, this is the first publicly available resource of its type, and intended as a stopgap measure for guiding research until more substantial evaluation resources become available. While this dataset, comprising 124 question-article pairs as of the present version 0.1 release, does not have sufficient examples for supervised machine learning, we believe that it can be helpful for evaluating the zero-shot or transfer capabilities of existing models on topics specifically related to COVID-19. This paper describes our methodology for constructing the dataset and presents the effectiveness of a number of baselines, including term-based techniques and various transformer-based models. The dataset is available at http://covidqa.ai/
A Toolbox for Surfacing Health Equity Harms and Biases in Large Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) hold immense promise to serve complex health information needs but also have the potential to introduce harm and exacerbate health disparities. Reliably evaluating equity-related model failures is a critical step toward developing systems that promote health equity. In this work, we present resources and methodologies for surfacing biases with potential to precipitate equity-related harms in long-form, LLM-generated answers to medical questions and then conduct an empirical case study with Med-PaLM 2, resulting in the largest human evaluation study in this area to date. Our contributions include a multifactorial framework for human assessment of LLM-generated answers for biases, and EquityMedQA, a collection of seven newly-released datasets comprising both manually-curated and LLM-generated questions enriched for adversarial queries. Both our human assessment framework and dataset design process are grounded in an iterative participatory approach and review of possible biases in Med-PaLM 2 answers to adversarial queries. Through our empirical study, we find that the use of a collection of datasets curated through a variety of methodologies, coupled with a thorough evaluation protocol that leverages multiple assessment rubric designs and diverse rater groups, surfaces biases that may be missed via narrower evaluation approaches. Our experience underscores the importance of using diverse assessment methodologies and involving raters of varying backgrounds and expertise. We emphasize that while our framework can identify specific forms of bias, it is not sufficient to holistically assess whether the deployment of an AI system promotes equitable health outcomes. We hope the broader community leverages and builds on these tools and methods towards realizing a shared goal of LLMs that promote accessible and equitable healthcare for all.
Crowdsourcing Dermatology Images with Google Search Ads: Creating a Real-World Skin Condition Dataset
Background: Health datasets from clinical sources do not reflect the breadth and diversity of disease in the real world, impacting research, medical education, and artificial intelligence (AI) tool development. Dermatology is a suitable area to develop and test a new and scalable method to create representative health datasets. Methods: We used Google Search advertisements to invite contributions to an open access dataset of images of dermatology conditions, demographic and symptom information. With informed contributor consent, we describe and release this dataset containing 10,408 images from 5,033 contributions from internet users in the United States over 8 months starting March 2023. The dataset includes dermatologist condition labels as well as estimated Fitzpatrick Skin Type (eFST) and Monk Skin Tone (eMST) labels for the images. Results: We received a median of 22 submissions/day (IQR 14-30). Female (66.72%) and younger (52% < age 40) contributors had a higher representation in the dataset compared to the US population, and 32.6% of contributors reported a non-White racial or ethnic identity. Over 97.5% of contributions were genuine images of skin conditions. Dermatologist confidence in assigning a differential diagnosis increased with the number of available variables, and showed a weaker correlation with image sharpness (Spearman's P values <0.001 and 0.01 respectively). Most contributions were short-duration (54% with onset < 7 days ago ) and 89% were allergic, infectious, or inflammatory conditions. eFST and eMST distributions reflected the geographical origin of the dataset. The dataset is available at github.com/google-research-datasets/scin . Conclusion: Search ads are effective at crowdsourcing images of health conditions. The SCIN dataset bridges important gaps in the availability of representative images of common skin conditions.
HRDE: Retrieval-Augmented Large Language Models for Chinese Health Rumor Detection and Explainability
As people increasingly prioritize their health, the speed and breadth of health information dissemination on the internet have also grown. At the same time, the presence of false health information (health rumors) intermingled with genuine content poses a significant potential threat to public health. However, current research on Chinese health rumors still lacks a large-scale, public, and open-source dataset of health rumor information, as well as effective and reliable rumor detection methods. This paper addresses this gap by constructing a dataset containing 1.12 million health-related rumors (HealthRCN) through web scraping of common health-related questions and a series of data processing steps. HealthRCN is the largest known dataset of Chinese health information rumors to date. Based on this dataset, we propose retrieval-augmented large language models for Chinese health rumor detection and explainability (HRDE). This model leverages retrieved relevant information to accurately determine whether the input health information is a rumor and provides explanatory responses, effectively aiding users in verifying the authenticity of health information. In evaluation experiments, we compared multiple models and found that HRDE outperformed them all, including GPT-4-1106-Preview, in rumor detection accuracy and answer quality. HRDE achieved an average accuracy of 91.04% and an F1 score of 91.58%.
Emergency Department Optimization and Load Prediction in Hospitals
Over the past several years, across the globe, there has been an increase in people seeking care in emergency departments (EDs). ED resources, including nurse staffing, are strained by such increases in patient volume. Accurate forecasting of incoming patient volume in emergency departments (ED) is crucial for efficient utilization and allocation of ED resources. Working with a suburban ED in the Pacific Northwest, we developed a tool powered by machine learning models, to forecast ED arrivals and ED patient volume to assist end-users, such as ED nurses, in resource allocation. In this paper, we discuss the results from our predictive models, the challenges, and the learnings from users' experiences with the tool in active clinical deployment in a real world setting.
On the Generation of Medical Dialogues for COVID-19
Under the pandemic of COVID-19, people experiencing COVID19-related symptoms or exposed to risk factors have a pressing need to consult doctors. Due to hospital closure, a lot of consulting services have been moved online. Because of the shortage of medical professionals, many people cannot receive online consultations timely. To address this problem, we aim to develop a medical dialogue system that can provide COVID19-related consultations. We collected two dialogue datasets -- CovidDialog -- (in English and Chinese respectively) containing conversations between doctors and patients about COVID-19. On these two datasets, we train several dialogue generation models based on Transformer, GPT, and BERT-GPT. Since the two COVID-19 dialogue datasets are small in size, which bear high risk of overfitting, we leverage transfer learning to mitigate data deficiency. Specifically, we take the pretrained models of Transformer, GPT, and BERT-GPT on dialog datasets and other large-scale texts, then finetune them on our CovidDialog tasks. We perform both automatic and human evaluation of responses generated by these models. The results show that the generated responses are promising in being doctor-like, relevant to the conversation history, and clinically informative. The data and code are available at https://github.com/UCSD-AI4H/COVID-Dialogue.
The EpiBench Platform to Propel AI/ML-based Epidemic Forecasting: A Prototype Demonstration Reaching Human Expert-level Performance
During the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant effort has gone into developing ML-driven epidemic forecasting techniques. However, benchmarks do not exist to claim if a new AI/ML technique is better than the existing ones. The "covid-forecast-hub" is a collection of more than 30 teams, including us, that submit their forecasts weekly to the CDC. It is not possible to declare whether one method is better than the other using those forecasts because each team's submission may correspond to different techniques over the period and involve human interventions as the teams are continuously changing/tuning their approach. Such forecasts may be considered "human-expert" forecasts and do not qualify as AI/ML approaches, although they can be used as an indicator of human expert performance. We are interested in supporting AI/ML research in epidemic forecasting which can lead to scalable forecasting without human intervention. Which modeling technique, learning strategy, and data pre-processing technique work well for epidemic forecasting is still an open problem. To help advance the state-of-the-art AI/ML applied to epidemiology, a benchmark with a collection of performance points is needed and the current "state-of-the-art" techniques need to be identified. We propose EpiBench a platform consisting of community-driven benchmarks for AI/ML applied to epidemic forecasting to standardize the challenge with a uniform evaluation protocol. In this paper, we introduce a prototype of EpiBench which is currently running and accepting submissions for the task of forecasting COVID-19 cases and deaths in the US states and We demonstrate that we can utilize the prototype to develop an ensemble relying on fully automated epidemic forecasts (no human intervention) that reaches human-expert level ensemble currently being used by the CDC.
Forecasting Patient Demand at Urgent Care Clinics using Machine Learning
Urgent care clinics and emergency departments around the world periodically suffer from extended wait times beyond patient expectations due to inadequate staffing levels. These delays have been linked with adverse clinical outcomes. Previous research into forecasting demand this domain has mostly used a collection of statistical techniques, with machine learning approaches only now beginning to emerge in recent literature. The forecasting problem for this domain is difficult and has also been complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic which has introduced an additional complexity to this estimation due to typical demand patterns being disrupted. This study explores the ability of machine learning methods to generate accurate patient presentations at two large urgent care clinics located in Auckland, New Zealand. A number of machine learning algorithms were explored in order to determine the most effective technique for this problem domain, with the task of making forecasts of daily patient demand three months in advance. The study also performed an in-depth analysis into the model behaviour in respect to the exploration of which features are most effective at predicting demand and which features are capable of adaptation to the volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. The results showed that ensemble-based methods delivered the most accurate and consistent solutions on average, generating improvements in the range of 23%-27% over the existing in-house methods for estimating the daily demand.
Algorithmic Behaviors Across Regions: A Geolocation Audit of YouTube Search for COVID-19 Misinformation between the United States and South Africa
Despite being an integral tool for finding health-related information online, YouTube has faced criticism for disseminating COVID-19 misinformation globally to its users. Yet, prior audit studies have predominantly investigated YouTube within the Global North contexts, often overlooking the Global South. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive 10-day geolocation-based audit on YouTube to compare the prevalence of COVID-19 misinformation in search results between the United States (US) and South Africa (SA), the countries heavily affected by the pandemic in the Global North and the Global South, respectively. For each country, we selected 3 geolocations and placed sock-puppets, or bots emulating "real" users, that collected search results for 48 search queries sorted by 4 search filters for 10 days, yielding a dataset of 915K results. We found that 31.55% of the top-10 search results contained COVID-19 misinformation. Among the top-10 search results, bots in SA faced significantly more misinformative search results than their US counterparts. Overall, our study highlights the contrasting algorithmic behaviors of YouTube search between two countries, underscoring the need for the platform to regulate algorithmic behavior consistently across different regions of the Globe.
Depression Detection and Analysis using Large Language Models on Textual and Audio-Visual Modalities
Depression has proven to be a significant public health issue, profoundly affecting the psychological well-being of individuals. If it remains undiagnosed, depression can lead to severe health issues, which can manifest physically and even lead to suicide. Generally, Diagnosing depression or any other mental disorder involves conducting semi-structured interviews alongside supplementary questionnaires, including variants of the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ) by Clinicians and mental health professionals. This approach places significant reliance on the experience and judgment of trained physicians, making the diagnosis susceptible to personal biases. Given that the underlying mechanisms causing depression are still being actively researched, physicians often face challenges in diagnosing and treating the condition, particularly in its early stages of clinical presentation. Recently, significant strides have been made in Artificial neural computing to solve problems involving text, image, and speech in various domains. Our analysis has aimed to leverage these state-of-the-art (SOTA) models in our experiments to achieve optimal outcomes leveraging multiple modalities. The experiments were performed on the Extended Distress Analysis Interview Corpus Wizard of Oz dataset (E-DAIC) corpus presented in the Audio/Visual Emotion Challenge (AVEC) 2019 Challenge. The proposed solutions demonstrate better results achieved by Proprietary and Open-source Large Language Models (LLMs), which achieved a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) score of 3.98 on Textual Modality, beating the AVEC 2019 challenge baseline results and current SOTA regression analysis architectures. Additionally, the proposed solution achieved an accuracy of 71.43% in the classification task. The paper also includes a novel audio-visual multi-modal network that predicts PHQ-8 scores with an RMSE of 6.51.
Chasing Your Long Tails: Differentially Private Prediction in Health Care Settings
Machine learning models in health care are often deployed in settings where it is important to protect patient privacy. In such settings, methods for differentially private (DP) learning provide a general-purpose approach to learn models with privacy guarantees. Modern methods for DP learning ensure privacy through mechanisms that censor information judged as too unique. The resulting privacy-preserving models, therefore, neglect information from the tails of a data distribution, resulting in a loss of accuracy that can disproportionately affect small groups. In this paper, we study the effects of DP learning in health care. We use state-of-the-art methods for DP learning to train privacy-preserving models in clinical prediction tasks, including x-ray classification of images and mortality prediction in time series data. We use these models to perform a comprehensive empirical investigation of the tradeoffs between privacy, utility, robustness to dataset shift, and fairness. Our results highlight lesser-known limitations of methods for DP learning in health care, models that exhibit steep tradeoffs between privacy and utility, and models whose predictions are disproportionately influenced by large demographic groups in the training data. We discuss the costs and benefits of differentially private learning in health care.
COVID-19 SignSym: a fast adaptation of a general clinical NLP tool to identify and normalize COVID-19 signs and symptoms to OMOP common data model
The COVID-19 pandemic swept across the world rapidly, infecting millions of people. An efficient tool that can accurately recognize important clinical concepts of COVID-19 from free text in electronic health records (EHRs) will be valuable to accelerate COVID-19 clinical research. To this end, this study aims at adapting the existing CLAMP natural language processing tool to quickly build COVID-19 SignSym, which can extract COVID-19 signs/symptoms and their 8 attributes (body location, severity, temporal expression, subject, condition, uncertainty, negation, and course) from clinical text. The extracted information is also mapped to standard concepts in the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership common data model. A hybrid approach of combining deep learning-based models, curated lexicons, and pattern-based rules was applied to quickly build the COVID-19 SignSym from CLAMP, with optimized performance. Our extensive evaluation using 3 external sites with clinical notes of COVID-19 patients, as well as the online medical dialogues of COVID-19, shows COVID-19 Sign-Sym can achieve high performance across data sources. The workflow used for this study can be generalized to other use cases, where existing clinical natural language processing tools need to be customized for specific information needs within a short time. COVID-19 SignSym is freely accessible to the research community as a downloadable package (https://clamp.uth.edu/covid/nlp.php) and has been used by 16 healthcare organizations to support clinical research of COVID-19.
Large Language Model for Mental Health: A Systematic Review
Large language models (LLMs) have received much attention and shown their potential in digital health, while their application in mental health is subject to ongoing debate. This systematic review aims to summarize and characterize the use of LLMs in mental health by investigating the strengths and limitations of the latest work in LLMs and discusses the challenges and opportunities for early screening, digital interventions, and other clinical applications in mental health. Following PRISMA guidelines, we examined English articles from PubMed, DBLP Computer Science Bibliography, and IEEE Xplore, published between 1 January 2017, and 1 September 2023, focusing on mental health and LLMs. The review analyzed 32 articles, including mental health analysis using social media datasets (n=13), mental health chatbots (n=10), and other mental health applications (n=9). Findings reveal LLMs' effectiveness in mental health issue detection and the enhancement of telepsychological services through personalised healthcare. Nonetheless, risks like text inconsistencies, hallucinatory content, and the lack of an ethical framework raise concerns about their clinical use. Despite these challenges, the advancement of LLMs underscores their potential as innovative clinical tools, necessitating further research and development. The review emphasizes that LLMs should complement, not replace, professional mental health services.