Daily Papers

Neural waveform models such as the WaveNet are used in many recent text-to-speech systems, but the original WaveNet is quite slow in waveform generation because of its autoregressive (AR) structure. Although faster non-AR models were recently reported, they may be prohibitively complicated due to the use of a distilling training method and the blend of other disparate training criteria. This study proposes a non-AR neural source-filter waveform model that can be directly trained using spectrum-based training criteria and the stochastic gradient descent method. Given the input acoustic features, the proposed model first uses a source module to generate a sine-based excitation signal and then uses a filter module to transform the excitation signal into the output speech waveform. Our experiments demonstrated that the proposed model generated waveforms at least 100 times faster than the AR WaveNet and the quality of its synthetic speech is close to that of speech generated by the AR WaveNet. Ablation test results showed that both the sine-wave excitation signal and the spectrum-based training criteria were essential to the performance of the proposed model.

Neural network based end-to-end text to speech (TTS) has significantly improved the quality of synthesized speech. Prominent methods (e.g., Tacotron 2) usually first generate mel-spectrogram from text, and then synthesize speech from the mel-spectrogram using vocoder such as WaveNet. Compared with traditional concatenative and statistical parametric approaches, neural network based end-to-end models suffer from slow inference speed, and the synthesized speech is usually not robust (i.e., some words are skipped or repeated) and lack of controllability (voice speed or prosody control). In this work, we propose a novel feed-forward network based on Transformer to generate mel-spectrogram in parallel for TTS. Specifically, we extract attention alignments from an encoder-decoder based teacher model for phoneme duration prediction, which is used by a length regulator to expand the source phoneme sequence to match the length of the target mel-spectrogram sequence for parallel mel-spectrogram generation. Experiments on the LJSpeech dataset show that our parallel model matches autoregressive models in terms of speech quality, nearly eliminates the problem of word skipping and repeating in particularly hard cases, and can adjust voice speed smoothly. Most importantly, compared with autoregressive Transformer TTS, our model speeds up mel-spectrogram generation by 270x and the end-to-end speech synthesis by 38x. Therefore, we call our model FastSpeech.

Normalising Flows are non-parametric statistical models characterised by their dual capabilities of density estimation and generation. This duality requires an inherently invertible architecture. However, the requirement of invertibility imposes constraints on their expressiveness, necessitating a large number of parameters and innovative architectural designs to achieve good results. Whilst flow-based models predominantly rely on neural-network-based transformations for expressive designs, alternative transformation methods have received limited attention. In this work, we present Ferumal flow, a novel kernelised normalising flow paradigm that integrates kernels into the framework. Our results demonstrate that a kernelised flow can yield competitive or superior results compared to neural network-based flows whilst maintaining parameter efficiency. Kernelised flows excel especially in the low-data regime, enabling flexible non-parametric density estimation in applications with sparse data availability.

Normalizing flows are powerful non-parametric statistical models that function as a hybrid between density estimators and generative models. Current learning algorithms for normalizing flows assume that data points are sampled independently, an assumption that is frequently violated in practice, which may lead to erroneous density estimation and data generation. We propose a likelihood objective of normalizing flows incorporating dependencies between the data points, for which we derive a flexible and efficient learning algorithm suitable for different dependency structures. We show that respecting dependencies between observations can improve empirical results on both synthetic and real-world data, and leads to higher statistical power in a downstream application to genome-wide association studies.

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.

Top-K sparse softmax gating mixture of experts has been widely used for scaling up massive deep-learning architectures without increasing the computational cost. Despite its popularity in real-world applications, the theoretical understanding of that gating function has remained an open problem. The main challenge comes from the structure of the top-K sparse softmax gating function, which partitions the input space into multiple regions with distinct behaviors. By focusing on a Gaussian mixture of experts, we establish theoretical results on the effects of the top-K sparse softmax gating function on both density and parameter estimations. Our results hinge upon defining novel loss functions among parameters to capture different behaviors of the input regions. When the true number of experts k_{ast} is known, we demonstrate that the convergence rates of density and parameter estimations are both parametric on the sample size. However, when k_{ast} becomes unknown and the true model is over-specified by a Gaussian mixture of k experts where k > k_{ast}, our findings suggest that the number of experts selected from the top-K sparse softmax gating function must exceed the total cardinality of a certain number of Voronoi cells associated with the true parameters to guarantee the convergence of the density estimation. Moreover, while the density estimation rate remains parametric under this setting, the parameter estimation rates become substantially slow due to an intrinsic interaction between the softmax gating and expert functions.

The activation function plays a crucial role in model optimisation, yet the optimal choice remains unclear. For example, the Sigmoid activation is the de-facto activation in balanced classification tasks, however, in imbalanced classification, it proves inappropriate due to bias towards frequent classes. In this work, we delve deeper in this phenomenon by performing a comprehensive statistical analysis in the classification and intermediate layers of both balanced and imbalanced networks and we empirically show that aligning the activation function with the data distribution, enhances the performance in both balanced and imbalanced tasks. To this end, we propose the Adaptive Parametric Activation (APA) function, a novel and versatile activation function that unifies most common activation functions under a single formula. APA can be applied in both intermediate layers and attention layers, significantly outperforming the state-of-the-art on several imbalanced benchmarks such as ImageNet-LT, iNaturalist2018, Places-LT, CIFAR100-LT and LVIS and balanced benchmarks such as ImageNet1K, COCO and V3DET. The code is available at https://github.com/kostas1515/AGLU.

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly when considering exponential or non-parametric kernels. Although non-parametric kernels are an option, such models require large datasets. While exponential kernels are more data efficient and relevant for specific applications where events immediately trigger more events, they are ill-suited for applications where latencies need to be estimated, such as in neuroscience. This work aims to offer an efficient solution to TPP inference using general parametric kernels with finite support. The developed solution consists of a fast ell_2 gradient-based solver leveraging a discretized version of the events. After theoretically supporting the use of discretization, the statistical and computational efficiency of the novel approach is demonstrated through various numerical experiments. Finally, the method's effectiveness is evaluated by modeling the occurrence of stimuli-induced patterns from brain signals recorded with magnetoencephalography (MEG). Given the use of general parametric kernels, results show that the proposed approach leads to an improved estimation of pattern latency than the state-of-the-art.

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful tool rivaling GANs in generating high-quality samples with improved fidelity, flexibility, and robustness. A key component of these models is to learn the score function through score matching. Despite empirical success on various tasks, it remains unclear whether gradient-based algorithms can learn the score function with a provable accuracy. As a first step toward answering this question, this paper establishes a mathematical framework for analyzing score estimation using neural networks trained by gradient descent. Our analysis covers both the optimization and the generalization aspects of the learning procedure. In particular, we propose a parametric form to formulate the denoising score-matching problem as a regression with noisy labels. Compared to the standard supervised learning setup, the score-matching problem introduces distinct challenges, including unbounded input, vector-valued output, and an additional time variable, preventing existing techniques from being applied directly. In this paper, we show that with proper designs, the evolution of neural networks during training can be accurately modeled by a series of kernel regression tasks. Furthermore, by applying an early-stopping rule for gradient descent and leveraging recent developments in neural tangent kernels, we establish the first generalization error (sample complexity) bounds for learning the score function with neural networks, despite the presence of noise in the observations. Our analysis is grounded in a novel parametric form of the neural network and an innovative connection between score matching and regression analysis, facilitating the application of advanced statistical and optimization techniques.

Experiments with pre-trained models such as BERT are often based on a single checkpoint. While the conclusions drawn apply to the artifact tested in the experiment (i.e., the particular instance of the model), it is not always clear whether they hold for the more general procedure which includes the architecture, training data, initialization scheme, and loss function. Recent work has shown that repeating the pre-training process can lead to substantially different performance, suggesting that an alternate strategy is needed to make principled statements about procedures. To enable researchers to draw more robust conclusions, we introduce the MultiBERTs, a set of 25 BERT-Base checkpoints, trained with similar hyper-parameters as the original BERT model but differing in random weight initialization and shuffling of training data. We also define the Multi-Bootstrap, a non-parametric bootstrap method for statistical inference designed for settings where there are multiple pre-trained models and limited test data. To illustrate our approach, we present a case study of gender bias in coreference resolution, in which the Multi-Bootstrap lets us measure effects that may not be detected with a single checkpoint. We release our models and statistical library along with an additional set of 140 intermediate checkpoints captured during pre-training to facilitate research on learning dynamics.

Gene regulatory network inference (GRNI) is a challenging problem, particularly owing to the presence of zeros in single-cell RNA sequencing data: some are biological zeros representing no gene expression, while some others are technical zeros arising from the sequencing procedure (aka dropouts), which may bias GRNI by distorting the joint distribution of the measured gene expressions. Existing approaches typically handle dropout error via imputation, which may introduce spurious relations as the true joint distribution is generally unidentifiable. To tackle this issue, we introduce a causal graphical model to characterize the dropout mechanism, namely, Causal Dropout Model. We provide a simple yet effective theoretical result: interestingly, the conditional independence (CI) relations in the data with dropouts, after deleting the samples with zero values (regardless if technical or not) for the conditioned variables, are asymptotically identical to the CI relations in the original data without dropouts. This particular test-wise deletion procedure, in which we perform CI tests on the samples without zeros for the conditioned variables, can be seamlessly integrated with existing structure learning approaches including constraint-based and greedy score-based methods, thus giving rise to a principled framework for GRNI in the presence of dropouts. We further show that the causal dropout model can be validated from data, and many existing statistical models to handle dropouts fit into our model as specific parametric instances. Empirical evaluation on synthetic, curated, and real-world experimental transcriptomic data comprehensively demonstrate the efficacy of our method.

We introduce Structured 3D Features, a model based on a novel implicit 3D representation that pools pixel-aligned image features onto dense 3D points sampled from a parametric, statistical human mesh surface. The 3D points have associated semantics and can move freely in 3D space. This allows for optimal coverage of the person of interest, beyond just the body shape, which in turn, additionally helps modeling accessories, hair, and loose clothing. Owing to this, we present a complete 3D transformer-based attention framework which, given a single image of a person in an unconstrained pose, generates an animatable 3D reconstruction with albedo and illumination decomposition, as a result of a single end-to-end model, trained semi-supervised, and with no additional postprocessing. We show that our S3F model surpasses the previous state-of-the-art on various tasks, including monocular 3D reconstruction, as well as albedo and shading estimation. Moreover, we show that the proposed methodology allows novel view synthesis, relighting, and re-posing the reconstruction, and can naturally be extended to handle multiple input images (e.g. different views of a person, or the same view, in different poses, in video). Finally, we demonstrate the editing capabilities of our model for 3D virtual try-on applications.

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

Asymmetrical distance structures (quasimetrics) are ubiquitous in our lives and are gaining more attention in machine learning applications. Imposing such quasimetric structures in model representations has been shown to improve many tasks, including reinforcement learning (RL) and causal relation learning. In this work, we present four desirable properties in such quasimetric models, and show how prior works fail at them. We propose Interval Quasimetric Embedding (IQE), which is designed to satisfy all four criteria. On three quasimetric learning experiments, IQEs show strong approximation and generalization abilities, leading to better performance and improved efficiency over prior methods. Project Page: https://www.tongzhouwang.info/interval_quasimetric_embedding Quasimetric Learning Code Package: https://www.github.com/quasimetric-learning/torch-quasimetric

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

We introduce a new class of spatially stochastic physics and data informed deep latent models for parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) which operate through scalable variational neural processes. We achieve this by assigning probability measures to the spatial domain, which allows us to treat collocation grids probabilistically as random variables to be marginalised out. Adapting this spatial statistics view, we solve forward and inverse problems for parametric PDEs in a way that leads to the construction of Gaussian process models of solution fields. The implementation of these random grids poses a unique set of challenges for inverse physics informed deep learning frameworks and we propose a new architecture called Grid Invariant Convolutional Networks (GICNets) to overcome these challenges. We further show how to incorporate noisy data in a principled manner into our physics informed model to improve predictions for problems where data may be available but whose measurement location does not coincide with any fixed mesh or grid. The proposed method is tested on a nonlinear Poisson problem, Burgers equation, and Navier-Stokes equations, and we provide extensive numerical comparisons. We demonstrate significant computational advantages over current physics informed neural learning methods for parametric PDEs while improving the predictive capabilities and flexibility of these models.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

The analysis of parametric and non-parametric uncertainties of very large dynamical systems requires the construction of a stochastic model of said system. Linear approaches relying on random matrix theory and principal componant analysis can be used when systems undergo low-frequency vibrations. In the case of fast dynamics and wave propagation, we investigate a random generator of boundary conditions for fast submodels by using machine learning. We show that the use of non-linear techniques in machine learning and data-driven methods is highly relevant. Physics-informed neural networks is a possible choice for a data-driven method to replace linear modal analysis. An architecture that support a random component is necessary for the construction of the stochastic model of the physical system for non-parametric uncertainties, since the goal is to learn the underlying probabilistic distribution of uncertainty in the data. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are suited for such applications, where the Wasserstein-GAN with gradient penalty variant offers improved convergence results for our problem. The objective of our approach is to train a GAN on data from a finite element method code (Fenics) so as to extract stochastic boundary conditions for faster finite element predictions on a submodel. The submodel and the training data have both the same geometrical support. It is a zone of interest for uncertainty quantification and relevant to engineering purposes. In the exploitation phase, the framework can be viewed as a randomized and parametrized simulation generator on the submodel, which can be used as a Monte Carlo estimator.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Many state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms rely on model-based optimizers that learn surrogate models of the target function to guide the search. Gaussian processes are the de facto surrogate model due to their ability to capture uncertainty but they make strong assumptions about the observation noise, which might not be warranted in practice. In this work, we propose to leverage conformalized quantile regression which makes minimal assumptions about the observation noise and, as a result, models the target function in a more realistic and robust fashion which translates to quicker HPO convergence on empirical benchmarks. To apply our method in a multi-fidelity setting, we propose a simple, yet effective, technique that aggregates observed results across different resource levels and outperforms conventional methods across many empirical tasks.

Dirichlet Process mixture models (DPMM) in combination with Gaussian kernels have been an important modeling tool for numerous data domains arising from biological, physical, and social sciences. However, this versatility in applications does not extend to strong theoretical guarantees for the underlying parameter estimates, for which only a logarithmic rate is achieved. In this work, we (re)introduce and investigate a metric, named Orlicz-Wasserstein distance, in the study of the Bayesian contraction behavior for the parameters. We show that despite the overall slow convergence guarantees for all the parameters, posterior contraction for parameters happens at almost polynomial rates in outlier regions of the parameter space. Our theoretical results provide new insight in understanding the convergence behavior of parameters arising from various settings of hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models. In addition, we provide an algorithm to compute the metric by leveraging Sinkhorn divergences and validate our findings through a simulation study.

We propose a novel Bayesian inference framework for distributed differentially private linear regression. We consider a distributed setting where multiple parties hold parts of the data and share certain summary statistics of their portions in privacy-preserving noise. We develop a novel generative statistical model for privately shared statistics, which exploits a useful distributional relation between the summary statistics of linear regression. Bayesian estimation of the regression coefficients is conducted mainly using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, while we also provide a fast version to perform Bayesian estimation in one iteration. The proposed methods have computational advantages over their competitors. We provide numerical results on both real and simulated data, which demonstrate that the proposed algorithms provide well-rounded estimation and prediction.

We propose a penalized nonparametric approach to estimating the quantile regression process (QRP) in a nonseparable model using rectifier quadratic unit (ReQU) activated deep neural networks and introduce a novel penalty function to enforce non-crossing of quantile regression curves. We establish the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for the estimated QRP and derive the mean integrated squared error for the estimated QRP under mild smoothness and regularity conditions. To establish these non-asymptotic risk and estimation error bounds, we also develop a new error bound for approximating C^s smooth functions with s >0 and their derivatives using ReQU activated neural networks. This is a new approximation result for ReQU networks and is of independent interest and may be useful in other problems. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with or outperforms two existing methods, including methods using reproducing kernels and random forests, for nonparametric quantile regression.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum distance estimation, generalised Bayesian inference, and within the nonparametric learning framework. The MMD is commonly estimated at a root-m rate, where m is the number of simulated samples. This can lead to significant computational challenges since a large m is required to obtain an accurate estimate, which is crucial for parameter estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for the MMD with significantly improved sample complexity. The estimator is particularly well suited for computationally expensive smooth simulators with low- to mid-dimensional inputs. This claim is supported through both theoretical results and an extensive simulation study on benchmark simulators.

Bayesian optimization is an approach to optimizing objective functions that take a long time (minutes or hours) to evaluate. It is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20 dimensions, and tolerates stochastic noise in function evaluations. It builds a surrogate for the objective and quantifies the uncertainty in that surrogate using a Bayesian machine learning technique, Gaussian process regression, and then uses an acquisition function defined from this surrogate to decide where to sample. In this tutorial, we describe how Bayesian optimization works, including Gaussian process regression and three common acquisition functions: expected improvement, entropy search, and knowledge gradient. We then discuss more advanced techniques, including running multiple function evaluations in parallel, multi-fidelity and multi-information source optimization, expensive-to-evaluate constraints, random environmental conditions, multi-task Bayesian optimization, and the inclusion of derivative information. We conclude with a discussion of Bayesian optimization software and future research directions in the field. Within our tutorial material we provide a generalization of expected improvement to noisy evaluations, beyond the noise-free setting where it is more commonly applied. This generalization is justified by a formal decision-theoretic argument, standing in contrast to previous ad hoc modifications.

This work studies the estimation of many statistical quantiles under differential privacy. More precisely, given a distribution and access to i.i.d. samples from it, we study the estimation of the inverse of its cumulative distribution function (the quantile function) at specific points. For instance, this task is of key importance in private data generation. We present two different approaches. The first one consists in privately estimating the empirical quantiles of the samples and using this result as an estimator of the quantiles of the distribution. In particular, we study the statistical properties of the recently published algorithm introduced by Kaplan et al. 2022 that privately estimates the quantiles recursively. The second approach is to use techniques of density estimation in order to uniformly estimate the quantile function on an interval. In particular, we show that there is a tradeoff between the two methods. When we want to estimate many quantiles, it is better to estimate the density rather than estimating the quantile function at specific points.

As the issue of robustness in AI systems becomes vital, statistical learning techniques that are reliable even in presence of partly contaminated data have to be developed. Preference data, in the form of (complete) rankings in the simplest situations, are no exception and the demand for appropriate concepts and tools is all the more pressing given that technologies fed by or producing this type of data (e.g. search engines, recommending systems) are now massively deployed. However, the lack of vector space structure for the set of rankings (i.e. the symmetric group S_n) and the complex nature of statistics considered in ranking data analysis make the formulation of robustness objectives in this domain challenging. In this paper, we introduce notions of robustness, together with dedicated statistical methods, for Consensus Ranking the flagship problem in ranking data analysis, aiming at summarizing a probability distribution on S_n by a median ranking. Precisely, we propose specific extensions of the popular concept of breakdown point, tailored to consensus ranking, and address the related computational issues. Beyond the theoretical contributions, the relevance of the approach proposed is supported by an experimental study.

In an industrial group like Safran, numerical simulations of physical phenomena are integral to most design processes. At Safran's corporate research center, we enhance these processes by developing fast and reliable surrogate models for various physics. We focus here on two technologies developed in recent years. The first is a physical reduced-order modeling method for non-linear structural mechanics and thermal analysis, used for calculating the lifespan of high-pressure turbine blades and performing heat analysis of high-pressure compressors. The second technology involves learning physics simulations with non-parameterized geometrical variability using classical machine learning tools, such as Gaussian process regression. Finally, we present our contributions to the open-source and open-data community.

Epidemiologists often wish to estimate quantities that are easy to communicate and correspond to the results of realistic public health scenarios. Methods from causal inference can answer these questions. We adopt the language of potential outcomes under Rubin's original Bayesian framework and show that the parametric g-formula is easily amenable to a Bayesian approach. We show that the frequentist properties of the Bayesian g-formula suggest it improves the accuracy of estimates of causal effects in small samples or when data may be sparse. We demonstrate our approach to estimate the effect of environmental tobacco smoke on body mass index z-scores among children aged 4-9 years who were enrolled in a longitudinal birth cohort in New York, USA. We give a general algorithm and supply SAS and Stan code that can be adopted to implement our computational approach in both time-fixed and longitudinal data.

Numerical simulations in climate, chemistry, or astrophysics are computationally too expensive for uncertainty quantification or parameter-exploration at high-resolution. Reduced-order or surrogate models are multiple orders of magnitude faster, but traditional surrogates are inflexible or inaccurate and pure machine learning (ML)-based surrogates too data-hungry. We propose a hybrid, flexible surrogate model that exploits known physics for simulating large-scale dynamics and limits learning to the hard-to-model term, which is called parametrization or closure and captures the effect of fine- onto large-scale dynamics. Leveraging neural operators, we are the first to learn grid-independent, non-local, and flexible parametrizations. Our multiscale neural operator is motivated by a rich literature in multiscale modeling, has quasilinear runtime complexity, is more accurate or flexible than state-of-the-art parametrizations and demonstrated on the chaotic equation multiscale Lorenz96.

This work derives methods for performing nonparametric, nonasymptotic statistical inference for population means under the constraint of local differential privacy (LDP). Given bounded observations (X_1, dots, X_n) with mean mu^star that are privatized into (Z_1, dots, Z_n), we present confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for mu^star when only given access to the privatized data. To achieve this, we introduce a nonparametric and sequentially interactive generalization of Warner's famous ``randomized response'' mechanism, satisfying LDP for arbitrary bounded random variables, and then provide CIs and CSs for their means given access to the resulting privatized observations. For example, our results yield private analogues of Hoeffding's inequality in both fixed-time and time-uniform regimes. We extend these Hoeffding-type CSs to capture time-varying (non-stationary) means, and conclude by illustrating how these methods can be used to conduct private online A/B tests.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $sum_{i=1}^k w_i N(mu_i,sigma^2), i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set S. The goal is to learn the weights w_i and the means \mu_i. We propose an algorithm that takes only 1{\varepsilon^{O(k)}} samples to estimate the weights w_i and the means \mu_i within \varepsilon$ error.

We initiate the study of statistical inference and A/B testing for first-price pacing equilibria (FPPE). The FPPE model captures the dynamics resulting from large-scale first-price auction markets where buyers use pacing-based budget management. Such markets arise in the context of internet advertising, where budgets are prevalent. We propose a statistical framework for the FPPE model, in which a limit FPPE with a continuum of items models the long-run steady-state behavior of the auction platform, and an observable FPPE consisting of a finite number of items provides the data to estimate primitives of the limit FPPE, such as revenue, Nash social welfare (a fair metric of efficiency), and other parameters of interest. We develop central limit theorems and asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic local minimax optimality of our estimators. We then show that the theory can be used for conducting statistically valid A/B testing on auction platforms. Numerical simulations verify our central limit theorems, and empirical coverage rates for our confidence intervals agree with our theory.

There is a long history, as well as a recent explosion of interest, in statistical and generative modeling approaches based on score functions -- derivatives of the log-likelihood of a distribution. In seminal works, Hyv\"arinen proposed vanilla score matching as a way to learn distributions from data by computing an estimate of the score function of the underlying ground truth, and established connections between this method and established techniques like Contrastive Divergence and Pseudolikelihood estimation. It is by now well-known that vanilla score matching has significant difficulties learning multimodal distributions. Although there are various ways to overcome this difficulty, the following question has remained unanswered -- is there a natural way to sample multimodal distributions using just the vanilla score? Inspired by a long line of related experimental works, we prove that the Langevin diffusion with early stopping, initialized at the empirical distribution, and run on a score function estimated from data successfully generates natural multimodal distributions (mixtures of log-concave distributions).

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

We consider the problem of global optimization with noisy zeroth order oracles - a well-motivated problem useful for various applications ranging from hyper-parameter tuning for deep learning to new material design. Existing work relies on Gaussian processes or other non-parametric family, which suffers from the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm GO-UCB that leverages a parametric family of functions (e.g., neural networks) instead. Under a realizable assumption and a few other mild geometric conditions, we show that GO-UCB achieves a cumulative regret of O(T) where T is the time horizon. At the core of GO-UCB is a carefully designed uncertainty set over parameters based on gradients that allows optimistic exploration. Synthetic and real-world experiments illustrate GO-UCB works better than Bayesian optimization approaches in high dimensional cases, even if the model is misspecified.

Finding the mode of a high dimensional probability distribution D is a fundamental algorithmic problem in statistics and data analysis. There has been particular interest in efficient methods for solving the problem when D is represented as a mixture model or kernel density estimate, although few algorithmic results with worst-case approximation and runtime guarantees are known. In this work, we significantly generalize a result of (LeeLiMusco:2021) on mode approximation for Gaussian mixture models. We develop randomized dimensionality reduction methods for mixtures involving a broader class of kernels, including the popular logistic, sigmoid, and generalized Gaussian kernels. As in Lee et al.'s work, our dimensionality reduction results yield quasi-polynomial algorithms for mode finding with multiplicative accuracy (1-epsilon) for any epsilon > 0. Moreover, when combined with gradient descent, they yield efficient practical heuristics for the problem. In addition to our positive results, we prove a hardness result for box kernels, showing that there is no polynomial time algorithm for finding the mode of a kernel density estimate, unless P = NP. Obtaining similar hardness results for kernels used in practice (like Gaussian or logistic kernels) is an interesting future direction.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

The lack of freely available standardized datasets represents an aggravating factor during the development and testing the performance of novel computational techniques in exposure assessment and dosimetry research. This hinders progress as researchers are required to generate numerical data (field, power and temperature distribution) anew using simulation software for each exposure scenario. Other than being time consuming, this approach is highly susceptible to errors that occur during the configuration of the electromagnetic model. To address this issue, in this paper, the limited available data on the incident power density and resultant maximum temperature rise on the skin surface considering various steady-state exposure scenarios at 10-90 GHz have been statistically modeled. The synthetic data have been sampled from the fitted statistical multivariate distribution with respect to predetermined dosimetric constraints. We thus present a comprehensive and open-source dataset compiled of the high-fidelity numerical data considering various exposures to a realistic source. Furthermore, different surrogate models for predicting maximum temperature rise on the skin surface were fitted based on the synthetic dataset. All surrogate models were tested on the originally available data where satisfactory predictive performance has been demonstrated. A simple technique of combining quadratic polynomial and tensor-product spline surrogates, each operating on its own cluster of data, has achieved the lowest mean absolute error of 0.058 {\deg}C. Therefore, overall experimental results indicate the validity of the proposed synthetic dataset.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Large language models with a huge number of parameters, when trained on near internet-sized number of tokens, have been empirically shown to obey neural scaling laws: specifically, their performance behaves predictably as a power law in either parameters or dataset size until bottlenecked by the other resource. To understand this better, we first identify the necessary properties allowing such scaling laws to arise and then propose a statistical model -- a joint generative data model and random feature model -- that captures this neural scaling phenomenology. By solving this model in the dual limit of large training set size and large number of parameters, we gain insight into (i) the statistical structure of datasets and tasks that lead to scaling laws, (ii) the way nonlinear feature maps, such as those provided by neural networks, enable scaling laws when trained on these datasets, (iii) the optimality of the equiparameterization scaling of training sets and parameters, and (iv) whether such scaling laws can break down and how they behave when they do. Key findings are the manner in which the power laws that occur in the statistics of natural datasets are extended by nonlinear random feature maps and then translated into power-law scalings of the test loss and how the finite extent of the data's spectral power law causes the model's performance to plateau.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

We use tools from geometric statistics to analyze the usual estimation procedure of a template shape. This applies to shapes from landmarks, curves, surfaces, images etc. We demonstrate the asymptotic bias of the template shape estimation using the stratified geometry of the shape space. We give a Taylor expansion of the bias with respect to a parameter sigma describing the measurement error on the data. We propose two bootstrap procedures that quantify the bias and correct it, if needed. They are applicable for any type of shape data. We give a rule of thumb to provide intuition on whether the bias has to be corrected. This exhibits the parameters that control the bias' magnitude. We illustrate our results on simulated and real shape data.

Linear structural equation models are multivariate statistical models encoded by mixed graphs. In particular, the set of covariance matrices for distributions belonging to a linear structural equation model for a fixed mixed graph G=(V, D,B) is parameterized by a rational function with parameters for each vertex and edge in G. This rational parametrization naturally allows for the study of these models from an algebraic and combinatorial point of view. Indeed, this point of view has led to a collection of results in the literature, mainly focusing on questions related to identifiability and determining relationships between covariances (i.e., finding polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal). So far, a large proportion of these results has focused on the case when D, the directed part of the mixed graph G, is acyclic. This is due to the fact that in the acyclic case, the parametrization becomes polynomial and there is a description of the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of a finite sum. We move beyond the acyclic case and give a closed form expression for the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of the one-connections in a graph obtained from D through some small operations. This closed form expression then allows us to show that if G is simple, then the parametrization map is generically finite-to-one. Finally, having a closed form expression for the covariance matrices allows for the development of an algorithm for systematically exploring possible polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal.

We consider the general class of time-homogeneous stochastic dynamical systems, both discrete and continuous, and study the problem of learning a representation of the state that faithfully captures its dynamics. This is instrumental to learning the transfer operator or the generator of the system, which in turn can be used for numerous tasks, such as forecasting and interpreting the system dynamics. We show that the search for a good representation can be cast as an optimization problem over neural networks. Our approach is supported by recent results in statistical learning theory, highlighting the role of approximation error and metric distortion in the learning problem. The objective function we propose is associated with projection operators from the representation space to the data space, overcomes metric distortion, and can be empirically estimated from data. In the discrete-time setting, we further derive a relaxed objective function that is differentiable and numerically well-conditioned. We compare our method against state-of-the-art approaches on different datasets, showing better performance across the board.

We study the problem of approximating stationary points of Lipschitz and smooth functions under (varepsilon,delta)-differential privacy (DP) in both the finite-sum and stochastic settings. A point w is called an alpha-stationary point of a function F:R^drightarrowR if |nabla F(w)|leq alpha. We provide a new efficient algorithm that finds an Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3}big)-stationary point in the finite-sum setting, where n is the number of samples. This improves on the previous best rate of Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big). We also give a new construction that improves over the existing rates in the stochastic optimization setting, where the goal is to find approximate stationary points of the population risk. Our construction finds a Obig(1{n^{1/3}} + big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big)-stationary point of the population risk in time linear in n. Furthermore, under the additional assumption of convexity, we completely characterize the sample complexity of finding stationary points of the population risk (up to polylog factors) and show that the optimal rate on population stationarity is tilde Thetabig(1{n}+sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big). Finally, we show that our methods can be used to provide dimension-independent rates of Obig(1{n}+minbig(big[sqrt{rank}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3},1{(nvarepsilon)^{2/5}}big)big) on population stationarity for Generalized Linear Models (GLM), where rank is the rank of the design matrix, which improves upon the previous best known rate.

Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.

Given the exponential growth of the volume of the ball w.r.t. its radius, the hyperbolic space is capable of embedding trees with arbitrarily small distortion and hence has received wide attention for representing hierarchical datasets. However, this exponential growth property comes at a price of numerical instability such that training hyperbolic learning models will sometimes lead to catastrophic NaN problems, encountering unrepresentable values in floating point arithmetic. In this work, we carefully analyze the limitation of two popular models for the hyperbolic space, namely, the Poincar\'e ball and the Lorentz model. We first show that, under the 64 bit arithmetic system, the Poincar\'e ball has a relatively larger capacity than the Lorentz model for correctly representing points. Then, we theoretically validate the superiority of the Lorentz model over the Poincar\'e ball from the perspective of optimization. Given the numerical limitations of both models, we identify one Euclidean parametrization of the hyperbolic space which can alleviate these limitations. We further extend this Euclidean parametrization to hyperbolic hyperplanes and exhibits its ability in improving the performance of hyperbolic SVM.

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

Combined electric power system and High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) models are being developed to determine the effect of a HEMP on the US power grid. The work relies primarily on deterministic methods; however, it is computationally untenable to evaluate the E1 HEMP response of large numbers of grid components distributed across a large interconnection. Further, the deterministic assessment of these components' failures are largely unachievable. E1 HEMP laboratory testing of the components is accomplished, but is expensive, leaving few data points to construct failure models of grid components exposed to E1 HEMP. The use of Bayesian priors, developed using the subject matter expertise, combined with the minimal test data in a Bayesian inference process, provides the basis for the development of more robust and cost-effective statistical component failure models. These can be used with minimal computational burden in a simulation environment such as sampling of Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs).

We study the problem of efficiently generating differentially private synthetic data that approximate the statistical properties of an underlying sensitive dataset. In recent years, there has been a growing line of work that approaches this problem using first-order optimization techniques. However, such techniques are restricted to optimizing differentiable objectives only, severely limiting the types of analyses that can be conducted. For example, first-order mechanisms have been primarily successful in approximating statistical queries only in the form of marginals for discrete data domains. In some cases, one can circumvent such issues by relaxing the task's objective to maintain differentiability. However, even when possible, these approaches impose a fundamental limitation in which modifications to the minimization problem become additional sources of error. Therefore, we propose Private-GSD, a private genetic algorithm based on zeroth-order optimization heuristics that do not require modifying the original objective. As a result, it avoids the aforementioned limitations of first-order optimization. We empirically evaluate Private-GSD against baseline algorithms on data derived from the American Community Survey across a variety of statistics--otherwise known as statistical queries--both for discrete and real-valued attributes. We show that Private-GSD outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on non-differential queries while matching accuracy in approximating differentiable ones.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

Automatic analysis of the enormous sets of images is a critical task in life sciences. This faces many challenges such as: algorithms are highly parameterized, significant human input is intertwined, and lacking a standard meta-visualization approach. This paper proposes an alternative iterative approach for optimizing input parameters, saving time by minimizing the user involvement, and allowing for understanding the workflow of algorithms and discovering new ones. The main focus is on developing an interactive visualization technique that enables users to analyze the relationships between sampled input parameters and corresponding output. This technique is implemented as a prototype called Veni Vidi Vici, or "I came, I saw, I conquered." This strategy is inspired by the mathematical formulas of numbering computable functions and is developed atop ImageJ, a scientific image processing program. A case study is presented to investigate the proposed framework. Finally, the paper explores some potential future issues in the application of the proposed approach in parameter space analysis in visualization.

We present BabyLlama-2, a 345 million parameter model distillation-pretrained from two teachers on a 10 million word corpus for the BabyLM competition. On BLiMP and SuperGLUE benchmarks, BabyLlama-2 outperforms baselines trained on both 10 and 100 million word datasets with the same data mix, as well as its teacher models. Through an extensive hyperparameter sweep, we demonstrate that the advantages of distillation cannot be attributed to suboptimal hyperparameter selection of the teachers. Our findings underscore the need for further investigation into distillation techniques, particularly in data-limited settings.

We present a generic framework for creating differentially private versions of any hypothesis test in a black-box way. We analyze the resulting tests analytically and experimentally. Most crucially, we show good practical performance for small data sets, showing that at epsilon = 1 we only need 5-6 times as much data as in the fully public setting. We compare our work to the one existing framework of this type, as well as to several individually-designed private hypothesis tests. Our framework is higher power than other generic solutions and at least competitive with (and often better than) individually-designed tests.

Bayesian optimization (BO) has established itself as a leading strategy for efficiently optimizing expensive-to-evaluate functions. Existing BO methods mostly rely on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models and are not applicable to (doubly-stochastic) Gaussian Cox processes, where the observation process is modulated by a latent intensity function modeled as a GP. In this paper, we propose a novel maximum a posteriori inference of Gaussian Cox processes. It leverages the Laplace approximation and change of kernel technique to transform the problem into a new reproducing kernel Hilbert space, where it becomes more tractable computationally. It enables us to obtain both a functional posterior of the latent intensity function and the covariance of the posterior, thus extending existing works that often focus on specific link functions or estimating the posterior mean. Using the result, we propose a BO framework based on the Gaussian Cox process model and further develop a Nystr\"om approximation for efficient computation. Extensive evaluations on various synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvement over state-of-the-art inference solutions for Gaussian Cox processes, as well as effective BO with a wide range of acquisition functions designed through the underlying Gaussian Cox process model.

A lot of Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) research is of an empirical nature. Nevertheless, statistical significance testing (SST) is still not widely used. This endangers true progress, as seeming improvements over a baseline might be statistical flukes, leading follow-up research astray while wasting human and computational resources. Here, we provide an easy-to-use package containing different significance tests and utility functions specifically tailored towards research needs and usability.

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

Approximate inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with non-conjugate likelihoods gets entangled with the learning of the model hyperparameters. We improve hyperparameter learning in GP models and focus on the interplay between variational inference (VI) and the learning target. While VI's lower bound to the marginal likelihood is a suitable objective for inferring the approximate posterior, we show that a direct approximation of the marginal likelihood as in Expectation Propagation (EP) is a better learning objective for hyperparameter optimization. We design a hybrid training procedure to bring the best of both worlds: it leverages conjugate-computation VI for inference and uses an EP-like marginal likelihood approximation for hyperparameter learning. We compare VI, EP, Laplace approximation, and our proposed training procedure and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal across a wide range of data sets.

We introduce a flexible framework that produces high-quality almost-exact matches for causal inference. Most prior work in matching uses ad-hoc distance metrics, often leading to poor quality matches, particularly when there are irrelevant covariates. In this work, we learn an interpretable distance metric for matching, which leads to substantially higher quality matches. The learned distance metric stretches the covariate space according to each covariate's contribution to outcome prediction: this stretching means that mismatches on important covariates carry a larger penalty than mismatches on irrelevant covariates. Our ability to learn flexible distance metrics leads to matches that are interpretable and useful for the estimation of conditional average treatment effects.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

We propose a goodness-of-fit measure for probability densities modeling observations with varying dimensionality, such as text documents of differing lengths or variable-length sequences. The proposed measure is an instance of the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), which has been used to construct goodness-of-fit tests for unnormalized densities. The KSD is defined by its Stein operator: current operators used in testing apply to fixed-dimensional spaces. As our main contribution, we extend the KSD to the variable-dimension setting by identifying appropriate Stein operators, and propose a novel KSD goodness-of-fit test. As with the previous variants, the proposed KSD does not require the density to be normalized, allowing the evaluation of a large class of models. Our test is shown to perform well in practice on discrete sequential data benchmarks.

How might one test the hypothesis that networks were sampled from the same distribution? Here, we compare two statistical tests that use subgraph counts to address this question. The first uses the empirical subgraph densities themselves as estimates of those of the underlying distribution. The second test uses a new approach that converts these subgraph densities into estimates of the graph cumulants of the distribution (without any increase in computational complexity). We demonstrate -- via theory, simulation, and application to real data -- the superior statistical power of using graph cumulants. In summary, when analyzing data using subgraph/motif densities, we suggest using the corresponding graph cumulants instead.

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

We study the problem of estimating the time delay between two signals representing delayed, irregularly sampled and noisy versions of the same underlying pattern. We propose and demonstrate an evolutionary algorithm for the (hyper)parameter estimation of a kernel-based technique in the context of an astronomical problem, namely estimating the time delay between two gravitationally lensed signals from a distant quasar. Mixed types (integer and real) are used to represent variables within the evolutionary algorithm. We test the algorithm on several artificial data sets, and also on real astronomical observations of quasar Q0957+561. By carrying out a statistical analysis of the results we present a detailed comparison of our method with the most popular methods for time delay estimation in astrophysics. Our method yields more accurate and more stable time delay estimates: for Q0957+561, we obtain 419.6 days for the time delay between images A and B. Our methodology can be readily applied to current state-of-the-art optical monitoring data in astronomy, but can also be applied in other disciplines involving similar time series data.

To effectively optimize and personalize treatments, it is necessary to investigate the heterogeneity of treatment effects. With the wide range of users being treated over many online controlled experiments, the typical approach of manually investigating each dimension of heterogeneity becomes overly cumbersome and prone to subjective human biases. We need an efficient way to search through thousands of experiments with hundreds of target covariates and hundreds of breakdown dimensions. In this paper, we propose a systematic paradigm for detecting, surfacing and characterizing heterogeneous treatment effects. First, we detect if treatment effect variation is present in an experiment, prior to specifying any breakdowns. Second, we surface the most relevant dimensions for heterogeneity. Finally, we characterize the heterogeneity beyond just the conditional average treatment effects (CATE) by studying the conditional distributions of the estimated individual treatment effects. We show the effectiveness of our methods using simulated data and empirical studies.

In computational social science (CSS), researchers analyze documents to explain social and political phenomena. In most scenarios, CSS researchers first obtain labels for documents and then explain labels using interpretable regression analyses in the second step. One increasingly common way to annotate documents cheaply at scale is through large language models (LLMs). However, like other scalable ways of producing annotations, such surrogate labels are often imperfect and biased. We present a new algorithm for using imperfect annotation surrogates for downstream statistical analyses while guaranteeing statistical properties -- like asymptotic unbiasedness and proper uncertainty quantification -- which are fundamental to CSS research. We show that direct use of surrogate labels in downstream statistical analyses leads to substantial bias and invalid confidence intervals, even with high surrogate accuracy of 80-90%. To address this, we build on debiased machine learning to propose the design-based supervised learning (DSL) estimator. DSL employs a doubly-robust procedure to combine surrogate labels with a smaller number of high-quality, gold-standard labels. Our approach guarantees valid inference for downstream statistical analyses, even when surrogates are arbitrarily biased and without requiring stringent assumptions, by controlling the probability of sampling documents for gold-standard labeling. Both our theoretical analysis and experimental results show that DSL provides valid statistical inference while achieving root mean squared errors comparable to existing alternatives that focus only on prediction without inferential guarantees.

This paper presents a brief, semi-technical comparison of the essential features of the frequentist and Bayesian approaches to statistical inference, with several illustrative examples implemented in Python. The differences between frequentism and Bayesianism fundamentally stem from differing definitions of probability, a philosophical divide which leads to distinct approaches to the solution of statistical problems as well as contrasting ways of asking and answering questions about unknown parameters. After an example-driven discussion of these differences, we briefly compare several leading Python statistical packages which implement frequentist inference using classical methods and Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

This paper studies distributional model risk in marginal problems, where each marginal measure is assumed to lie in a Wasserstein ball centered at a fixed reference measure with a given radius. Theoretically, we establish several fundamental results including strong duality, finiteness of the proposed Wasserstein distributional model risk, and the existence of an optimizer at each radius. In addition, we show continuity of the Wasserstein distributional model risk as a function of the radius. Using strong duality, we extend the well-known Makarov bounds for the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with given marginals to Wasserstein distributionally robust Markarov bounds. Practically, we illustrate our results on four distinct applications when the sample information comes from multiple data sources and only some marginal reference measures are identified. They are: partial identification of treatment effects; externally valid treatment choice via robust welfare functions; Wasserstein distributionally robust estimation under data combination; and evaluation of the worst aggregate risk measures.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

We present an end-to-end and practical randomness amplification and privatisation protocol based on Bell tests. This allows the building of device-independent random number generators which output (near-)perfectly unbiased and private numbers, even if using an uncharacterised quantum device potentially built by an adversary. Our generation rates are linear in the repetition rate of the quantum device and the classical randomness post-processing has quasi-linear complexity - making it efficient on a standard personal laptop. The statistical analysis is also tailored for real-world quantum devices. Our protocol is then showcased on several different quantum computers. Although not purposely built for the task, we show that quantum computers can run faithful Bell tests by adding minimal assumptions. In this semi-device-independent manner, our protocol generates (near-)perfectly unbiased and private random numbers on today's quantum computers.

From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization and analysis of many aspects of machine learning. Using categorical methods, we construct models for parametric and nonparametric Bayesian reasoning on function spaces, thus providing a basis for the supervised learning problem. In particular, stochastic processes are arrows to these function spaces which serve as prior probabilities. The resulting inference maps can often be analytically constructed in this symmetric monoidal weakly closed category. We also show how to view general stochastic processes using functor categories and demonstrate the Kalman filter as an archetype for the hidden Markov model.

Abstractive summarization models are commonly trained using maximum likelihood estimation, which assumes a deterministic (one-point) target distribution in which an ideal model will assign all the probability mass to the reference summary. This assumption may lead to performance degradation during inference, where the model needs to compare several system-generated (candidate) summaries that have deviated from the reference summary. To address this problem, we propose a novel training paradigm which assumes a non-deterministic distribution so that different candidate summaries are assigned probability mass according to their quality. Our method achieves a new state-of-the-art result on the CNN/DailyMail (47.78 ROUGE-1) and XSum (49.07 ROUGE-1) datasets. Further analysis also shows that our model can estimate probabilities of candidate summaries that are more correlated with their level of quality.

Given a sample of size N, it is often useful to select a subsample of smaller size n<N to be used for statistical estimation or learning. Such a data selection step is useful to reduce the requirements of data labeling and the computational complexity of learning. We assume to be given N unlabeled samples {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{ile N}, and to be given access to a `surrogate model' that can predict labels y_i better than random guessing. Our goal is to select a subset of the samples, to be denoted by {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{iin G}, of size |G|=n<N. We then acquire labels for this set and we use them to train a model via regularized empirical risk minimization. By using a mixture of numerical experiments on real and synthetic data, and mathematical derivations under low- and high- dimensional asymptotics, we show that: (i)~Data selection can be very effective, in particular beating training on the full sample in some cases; (ii)~Certain popular choices in data selection methods (e.g. unbiased reweighted subsampling, or influence function-based subsampling) can be substantially suboptimal.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are popular nonparametric statistical models for learning unknown functions and quantifying the spatiotemporal uncertainty in data. Recent works have extended GPs to model scalar and vector quantities distributed over non-Euclidean domains, including smooth manifolds appearing in numerous fields such as computer vision, dynamical systems, and neuroscience. However, these approaches assume that the manifold underlying the data is known, limiting their practical utility. We introduce RVGP, a generalisation of GPs for learning vector signals over latent Riemannian manifolds. Our method uses positional encoding with eigenfunctions of the connection Laplacian, associated with the tangent bundle, readily derived from common graph-based approximation of data. We demonstrate that RVGP possesses global regularity over the manifold, which allows it to super-resolve and inpaint vector fields while preserving singularities. Furthermore, we use RVGP to reconstruct high-density neural dynamics derived from low-density EEG recordings in healthy individuals and Alzheimer's patients. We show that vector field singularities are important disease markers and that their reconstruction leads to a comparable classification accuracy of disease states to high-density recordings. Thus, our method overcomes a significant practical limitation in experimental and clinical applications.

Over the broad landscape of experimental design, regression has been a powerful tool to accurately predict the outcome metrics of a system or model given a set of parameters, but has been traditionally restricted to methods which are only applicable to a specific task. In this paper, we propose OmniPred, a framework for training language models as universal end-to-end regressors over (x,y) evaluation data from diverse real world experiments. Using data sourced from Google Vizier, one of the largest blackbox optimization databases in the world, our extensive experiments demonstrate that through only textual representations of mathematical parameters and values, language models are capable of very precise numerical regression, and if given the opportunity to train over multiple tasks, can significantly outperform traditional regression models.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

Scaling laws are typically fit using a family of models with a narrow range of frozen hyper-parameter choices. In this work we study scaling laws using a wide range of architecture and hyper-parameter choices, and highlight their impact on resulting prescriptions. As a primary artifact of our research, we release the Gemstones: the most comprehensive open-source scaling law dataset to date, consisting of over 4000 checkpoints from transformers with up to 2 billion parameters; these models have been trained with different learning rates, cooldown schedules, and architectural shapes. Our checkpoints enable more complex studies of scaling, such as a law that predicts language modeling performance as a function of model width and depth. By examining the various facets of our model suite, we find that the prescriptions of scaling laws can be highly sensitive to the experimental design process and the specific model checkpoints used during fitting. Code: https://github.com/mcleish7/gemstone-scaling-laws

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

In high dimension, low sample size (HDLSS) settings, classifiers based on Euclidean distances like the nearest neighbor classifier and the average distance classifier perform quite poorly if differences between locations of the underlying populations get masked by scale differences. To rectify this problem, several modifications of these classifiers have been proposed in the literature. However, existing methods are confined to location and scale differences only, and often fail to discriminate among populations differing outside of the first two moments. In this article, we propose some simple transformations of these classifiers resulting into improved performance even when the underlying populations have the same location and scale. We further propose a generalization of these classifiers based on the idea of grouping of variables. The high-dimensional behavior of the proposed classifiers is studied theoretically. Numerical experiments with a variety of simulated examples as well as an extensive analysis of real data sets exhibit advantages of the proposed methods.

We propose ParaSCI, the first large-scale paraphrase dataset in the scientific field, including 33,981 paraphrase pairs from ACL (ParaSCI-ACL) and 316,063 pairs from arXiv (ParaSCI-arXiv). Digging into characteristics and common patterns of scientific papers, we construct this dataset though intra-paper and inter-paper methods, such as collecting citations to the same paper or aggregating definitions by scientific terms. To take advantage of sentences paraphrased partially, we put up PDBERT as a general paraphrase discovering method. The major advantages of paraphrases in ParaSCI lie in the prominent length and textual diversity, which is complementary to existing paraphrase datasets. ParaSCI obtains satisfactory results on human evaluation and downstream tasks, especially long paraphrase generation.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

The approximation of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) using neural networks has seen significant advancements through Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs). Despite their straightforward optimization framework and flexibility in implementing various PDEs, PINNs often suffer from limited accuracy due to the spectral bias of Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), which struggle to effectively learn high-frequency and non-linear components. Recently, parametric mesh representations in combination with neural networks have been investigated as a promising approach to eliminate the inductive biases of neural networks. However, they usually require very high-resolution grids and a large number of collocation points to achieve high accuracy while avoiding overfitting issues. In addition, the fixed positions of the mesh parameters restrict their flexibility, making it challenging to accurately approximate complex PDEs. To overcome these limitations, we propose Physics-Informed Gaussians (PIGs), which combine feature embeddings using Gaussian functions with a lightweight neural network. Our approach uses trainable parameters for the mean and variance of each Gaussian, allowing for dynamic adjustment of their positions and shapes during training. This adaptability enables our model to optimally approximate PDE solutions, unlike models with fixed parameter positions. Furthermore, the proposed approach maintains the same optimization framework used in PINNs, allowing us to benefit from their excellent properties. Experimental results show the competitive performance of our model across various PDEs, demonstrating its potential as a robust tool for solving complex PDEs. Our project page is available at https://namgyukang.github.io/Physics-Informed-Gaussians/

We study the problem of designing models for machine learning tasks defined on sets. In contrast to traditional approach of operating on fixed dimensional vectors, we consider objective functions defined on sets that are invariant to permutations. Such problems are widespread, ranging from estimation of population statistics poczos13aistats, to anomaly detection in piezometer data of embankment dams Jung15Exploration, to cosmology Ntampaka16Dynamical,Ravanbakhsh16ICML1. Our main theorem characterizes the permutation invariant functions and provides a family of functions to which any permutation invariant objective function must belong. This family of functions has a special structure which enables us to design a deep network architecture that can operate on sets and which can be deployed on a variety of scenarios including both unsupervised and supervised learning tasks. We also derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for permutation equivariance in deep models. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on population statistic estimation, point cloud classification, set expansion, and outlier detection.

In this paper, we study the problem of principal component analysis with generative modeling assumptions, adopting a general model for the observed matrix that encompasses notable special cases, including spiked matrix recovery and phase retrieval. The key assumption is that the underlying signal lies near the range of an L-Lipschitz continuous generative model with bounded k-dimensional inputs. We propose a quadratic estimator, and show that it enjoys a statistical rate of order frac{klog L{m}}, where m is the number of samples. We also provide a near-matching algorithm-independent lower bound. Moreover, we provide a variant of the classic power method, which projects the calculated data onto the range of the generative model during each iteration. We show that under suitable conditions, this method converges exponentially fast to a point achieving the above-mentioned statistical rate. We perform experiments on various image datasets for spiked matrix and phase retrieval models, and illustrate performance gains of our method to the classic power method and the truncated power method devised for sparse principal component analysis.

Machine learning based solvers have garnered much attention in physical simulation and scientific computing, with a prominent example, physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). However, PINNs often struggle to solve high-frequency and multi-scale PDEs, which can be due to spectral bias during neural network training. To address this problem, we resort to the Gaussian process (GP) framework. To flexibly capture the dominant frequencies, we model the power spectrum of the PDE solution with a student t mixture or Gaussian mixture. We apply the inverse Fourier transform to obtain the covariance function (by Wiener-Khinchin theorem). The covariance derived from the Gaussian mixture spectrum corresponds to the known spectral mixture kernel. Next, we estimate the mixture weights in the log domain, which we show is equivalent to placing a Jeffreys prior. It automatically induces sparsity, prunes excessive frequencies, and adjusts the remaining toward the ground truth. Third, to enable efficient and scalable computation on massive collocation points, which are critical to capture high frequencies, we place the collocation points on a grid, and multiply our covariance function at each input dimension. We use the GP conditional mean to predict the solution and its derivatives so as to fit the boundary condition and the equation itself. As a result, we can derive a Kronecker product structure in the covariance matrix. We use Kronecker product properties and multilinear algebra to promote computational efficiency and scalability, without low-rank approximations. We show the advantage of our method in systematic experiments. The code is released at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Gaussian-Process-Slover-for-High-Freq-PDE.

In this article, we develop an asymptotic method for constructing confidence regions for the set of all linear subspaces arising from PCA, from which we derive hypothesis tests on this set. Our method is based on the geometry of Riemannian manifolds with which some sets of linear subspaces are endowed.

Score-based generative models (SGMs) are a powerful class of generative models that exhibit remarkable empirical performance. Score-based generative modelling (SGM) consists of a ``noising'' stage, whereby a diffusion is used to gradually add Gaussian noise to data, and a generative model, which entails a ``denoising'' process defined by approximating the time-reversal of the diffusion. Existing SGMs assume that data is supported on a Euclidean space, i.e. a manifold with flat geometry. In many domains such as robotics, geoscience or protein modelling, data is often naturally described by distributions living on Riemannian manifolds and current SGM techniques are not appropriate. We introduce here Riemannian Score-based Generative Models (RSGMs), a class of generative models extending SGMs to Riemannian manifolds. We demonstrate our approach on a variety of manifolds, and in particular with earth and climate science spherical data.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Posterior sampling allows the exploitation of prior knowledge of the environment's transition dynamics to improve the sample efficiency of reinforcement learning. The prior is typically specified as a class of parametric distributions, a task that can be cumbersome in practice, often resulting in the choice of uninformative priors. In this work, we propose a novel posterior sampling approach in which the prior is given as a (partial) causal graph over the environment's variables. The latter is often more natural to design, such as listing known causal dependencies between biometric features in a medical treatment study. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian procedure, called C-PSRL, simultaneously learning the full causal graph at the higher level and the parameters of the resulting factored dynamics at the lower level. For this procedure, we provide an analysis of its Bayesian regret, which explicitly connects the regret rate with the degree of prior knowledge. Our numerical evaluation conducted in illustrative domains confirms that C-PSRL strongly improves the efficiency of posterior sampling with an uninformative prior while performing close to posterior sampling with the full causal graph.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Many recently trained neural networks employ large numbers of parameters to achieve good performance. One may intuitively use the number of parameters required as a rough gauge of the difficulty of a problem. But how accurate are such notions? How many parameters are really needed? In this paper we attempt to answer this question by training networks not in their native parameter space, but instead in a smaller, randomly oriented subspace. We slowly increase the dimension of this subspace, note at which dimension solutions first appear, and define this to be the intrinsic dimension of the objective landscape. The approach is simple to implement, computationally tractable, and produces several suggestive conclusions. Many problems have smaller intrinsic dimensions than one might suspect, and the intrinsic dimension for a given dataset varies little across a family of models with vastly different sizes. This latter result has the profound implication that once a parameter space is large enough to solve a problem, extra parameters serve directly to increase the dimensionality of the solution manifold. Intrinsic dimension allows some quantitative comparison of problem difficulty across supervised, reinforcement, and other types of learning where we conclude, for example, that solving the inverted pendulum problem is 100 times easier than classifying digits from MNIST, and playing Atari Pong from pixels is about as hard as classifying CIFAR-10. In addition to providing new cartography of the objective landscapes wandered by parameterized models, the method is a simple technique for constructively obtaining an upper bound on the minimum description length of a solution. A byproduct of this construction is a simple approach for compressing networks, in some cases by more than 100 times.

We introduce the concept of programmable feature engineering for time series modeling and propose a feature programming framework. This framework generates large amounts of predictive features for noisy multivariate time series while allowing users to incorporate their inductive bias with minimal effort. The key motivation of our framework is to view any multivariate time series as a cumulative sum of fine-grained trajectory increments, with each increment governed by a novel spin-gas dynamical Ising model. This fine-grained perspective motivates the development of a parsimonious set of operators that summarize multivariate time series in an abstract fashion, serving as the foundation for large-scale automated feature engineering. Numerically, we validate the efficacy of our method on several synthetic and real-world noisy time series datasets.

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such as Allee population sizes. Before a collapse, we do not know where the tipping points lie, if they exist at all. Hence, we know neither a complete model of the system dynamics nor do we have access to data in some large region of state-space where such a tipping point might exist. We illustrate how a Bayesian Non-Parametric (BNP) approach using a Gaussian Process (GP) prior provides a flexible representation of this inherent uncertainty. We embed GPs in a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) framework in order to make robust management predictions with both model uncertainty and limited data. We use simulations to evaluate this approach as compared with the standard approach of using model selection to choose from a set of candidate models. We find that model selection erroneously favors models without tipping points -- leading to harvest policies that guarantee extinction. The GPDP performs nearly as well as the true model and significantly outperforms standard approaches. We illustrate this using examples of simulated single-species dynamics, where the standard model selection approach should be most effective, and find that it still fails to account for uncertainty appropriately and leads to population crashes, while management based on the GPDP does not, since it does not underestimate the uncertainty outside of the observed data.

We present Symphony, an E(3)-equivariant autoregressive generative model for 3D molecular geometries that iteratively builds a molecule from molecular fragments. Existing autoregressive models such as G-SchNet and G-SphereNet for molecules utilize rotationally invariant features to respect the 3D symmetries of molecules. In contrast, Symphony uses message-passing with higher-degree E(3)-equivariant features. This allows a novel representation of probability distributions via spherical harmonic signals to efficiently model the 3D geometry of molecules. We show that Symphony is able to accurately generate small molecules from the QM9 dataset, outperforming existing autoregressive models and approaching the performance of diffusion models.

Separating a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) from noise is a challenging statistical task. One approach to establishing a detection criterion for the SGWB is using Bayesian evidence. If the evidence ratio (Bayes factor) between models with and without the signal exceeds a certain threshold, the signal is considered detected. We present a formalism to compute the averaged Bayes factor, incorporating instrumental-noise and SGWB uncertainties. As an example, we consider the case of power-law-shaped SGWB in LISA and generate the corresponding bayesian sensitivity curve. Unlike existing methods in the literature, which typically neglect uncertainties in both the signal and noise, our approach provides a reliable and realistic alternative. This flexible framework opens avenues for more robust stochastic gravitational wave background detection across gravitational-wave experiments.

This paper studies the fitting of Hessian or its inverse with stochastic Hessian-vector products. A Hessian fitting criterion, which can be used to derive most of the commonly used methods, e.g., BFGS, Gaussian-Newton, AdaGrad, etc., is used for the analysis. Our studies reveal different convergence rates for different Hessian fitting methods, e.g., sublinear rates for gradient descent in the Euclidean space and a commonly used closed-form solution, linear rates for gradient descent on the manifold of symmetric positive definite (SPL) matrices and certain Lie groups. The Hessian fitting problem is further shown to be strongly convex under mild conditions on a specific yet general enough Lie group. To confirm our analysis, these methods are tested under different settings like noisy Hessian-vector products, time varying Hessians, and low precision arithmetic. These findings are useful for stochastic second order optimizations that rely on fast, robust and accurate Hessian estimations.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

This paper revisits datasets and evaluation criteria for Symbolic Regression, a task of expressing given data using mathematical equations, specifically focused on its potential for scientific discovery. Focused on a set of formulas used in the existing datasets based on Feynman Lectures on Physics, we recreate 120 datasets to discuss the performance of symbolic regression for scientific discovery (SRSD). For each of the 120 SRSD datasets, we carefully review the properties of the formula and its variables to design reasonably realistic sampling range of values so that our new SRSD datasets can be used for evaluating the potential of SRSD such as whether or not an SR method can (re)discover physical laws from such datasets. As an evaluation metric, we also propose to use normalized edit distances between a predicted equation and the ground-truth equation trees. While existing metrics are either binary or errors between the target values and an SR model's predicted values for a given input, normalized edit distances evaluate a sort of similarity between the ground-truth and predicted equation trees. We have conducted experiments on our new SRSD datasets using five state-of-the-art SR methods in SRBench and a simple baseline based on a recent Transformer architecture. The results show that we provide a more realistic performance evaluation and open up a new machine learning-based approach for scientific discovery. Our datasets and code repository are publicly available.

PySR is an open-source library for practical symbolic regression, a type of machine learning which aims to discover human-interpretable symbolic models. PySR was developed to democratize and popularize symbolic regression for the sciences, and is built on a high-performance distributed back-end, a flexible search algorithm, and interfaces with several deep learning packages. PySR's internal search algorithm is a multi-population evolutionary algorithm, which consists of a unique evolve-simplify-optimize loop, designed for optimization of unknown scalar constants in newly-discovered empirical expressions. PySR's backend is the extremely optimized Julia library SymbolicRegression.jl, which can be used directly from Julia. It is capable of fusing user-defined operators into SIMD kernels at runtime, performing automatic differentiation, and distributing populations of expressions to thousands of cores across a cluster. In describing this software, we also introduce a new benchmark, "EmpiricalBench," to quantify the applicability of symbolic regression algorithms in science. This benchmark measures recovery of historical empirical equations from original and synthetic datasets.

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.

Causal effects are usually studied in terms of the means of counterfactual distributions, which may be insufficient in many scenarios. Given a class of densities known up to normalizing constants, we propose to model counterfactual distributions by minimizing kernel Stein discrepancies in a doubly robust manner. This enables the estimation of counterfactuals over large classes of distributions while exploiting the desired double robustness. We present a theoretical analysis of the proposed estimator, providing sufficient conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality, as well as an examination of its empirical performance.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

Practitioners frequently aim to infer an unobserved population trajectory using sample snapshots at multiple time points. For instance, in single-cell sequencing, scientists would like to learn how gene expression evolves over time. But sequencing any cell destroys that cell. So we cannot access any cell's full trajectory, but we can access snapshot samples from many cells. Stochastic differential equations are commonly used to analyze systems with full individual-trajectory access; since here we have only sample snapshots, these methods are inapplicable. The deep learning community has recently explored using Schr\"odinger bridges (SBs) and their extensions to estimate these dynamics. However, these methods either (1) interpolate between just two time points or (2) require a single fixed reference dynamic within the SB, which is often just set to be Brownian motion. But learning piecewise from adjacent time points can fail to capture long-term dependencies. And practitioners are typically able to specify a model class for the reference dynamic but not the exact values of the parameters within it. So we propose a new method that (1) learns the unobserved trajectories from sample snapshots across multiple time points and (2) requires specification only of a class of reference dynamics, not a single fixed one. In particular, we suggest an iterative projection method inspired by Schr\"odinger bridges; we alternate between learning a piecewise SB on the unobserved trajectories and using the learned SB to refine our best guess for the dynamics within the reference class. We demonstrate the advantages of our method via a well-known simulated parametric model from ecology, simulated and real data from systems biology, and real motion-capture data.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

In this manuscript we consider the problem of generalized linear estimation on Gaussian mixture data with labels given by a single-index model. Our first result is a sharp asymptotic expression for the test and training errors in the high-dimensional regime. Motivated by the recent stream of results on the Gaussian universality of the test and training errors in generalized linear estimation, we ask ourselves the question: "when is a single Gaussian enough to characterize the error?". Our formula allow us to give sharp answers to this question, both in the positive and negative directions. More precisely, we show that the sufficient conditions for Gaussian universality (or lack of thereof) crucially depend on the alignment between the target weights and the means and covariances of the mixture clusters, which we precisely quantify. In the particular case of least-squares interpolation, we prove a strong universality property of the training error, and show it follows a simple, closed-form expression. Finally, we apply our results to real datasets, clarifying some recent discussion in the literature about Gaussian universality of the errors in this context.

Selecting hyperparameters in deep learning greatly impacts its effectiveness but requires manual effort and expertise. Recent works show that Bayesian model selection with Laplace approximations can allow to optimize such hyperparameters just like standard neural network parameters using gradients and on the training data. However, estimating a single hyperparameter gradient requires a pass through the entire dataset, limiting the scalability of such algorithms. In this work, we overcome this issue by introducing lower bounds to the linearized Laplace approximation of the marginal likelihood. In contrast to previous estimators, these bounds are amenable to stochastic-gradient-based optimization and allow to trade off estimation accuracy against computational complexity. We derive them using the function-space form of the linearized Laplace, which can be estimated using the neural tangent kernel. Experimentally, we show that the estimators can significantly accelerate gradient-based hyperparameter optimization.

We consider the problem of linear estimation, and establish an extension of the Gauss-Markov theorem, in which the bias operator is allowed to be non-zero but bounded with respect to a matrix norm of Schatten type. We derive simple and explicit formulas for the optimal estimator in the cases of Nuclear and Spectral norms (with the Frobenius case recovering ridge regression). Additionally, we analytically derive the generalization error in multiple random matrix ensembles, and compare with Ridge regression. Finally, we conduct an extensive simulation study, in which we show that the cross-validated Nuclear and Spectral regressors can outperform Ridge in several circumstances.

We begin the study of list-decodable linear regression using batches. In this setting only an alpha in (0,1] fraction of the batches are genuine. Each genuine batch contains ge n i.i.d. samples from a common unknown distribution and the remaining batches may contain arbitrary or even adversarial samples. We derive a polynomial time algorithm that for any nge tilde Omega(1/alpha) returns a list of size mathcal O(1/alpha^2) such that one of the items in the list is close to the true regression parameter. The algorithm requires only mathcal{O}(d/alpha^2) genuine batches and works under fairly general assumptions on the distribution. The results demonstrate the utility of batch structure, which allows for the first polynomial time algorithm for list-decodable regression, which may be impossible for the non-batch setting, as suggested by a recent SQ lower bound diakonikolas2021statistical for the non-batch setting.

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

We propose a new approach for propagating stable probability distributions through neural networks. Our method is based on local linearization, which we show to be an optimal approximation in terms of total variation distance for the ReLU non-linearity. This allows propagating Gaussian and Cauchy input uncertainties through neural networks to quantify their output uncertainties. To demonstrate the utility of propagating distributions, we apply the proposed method to predicting calibrated confidence intervals and selective prediction on out-of-distribution data. The results demonstrate a broad applicability of propagating distributions and show the advantages of our method over other approaches such as moment matching.

The task of mixture proportion estimation (MPE) is to estimate the weight of a component distribution in a mixture, given observations from both the component and mixture. Previous work on MPE adopts the irreducibility assumption, which ensures identifiablity of the mixture proportion. In this paper, we propose a more general sufficient condition that accommodates several settings of interest where irreducibility does not hold. We further present a resampling-based meta-algorithm that takes any existing MPE algorithm designed to work under irreducibility and adapts it to work under our more general condition. Our approach empirically exhibits improved estimation performance relative to baseline methods and to a recently proposed regrouping-based algorithm.

We consider in this work quantities that can be obtained as limits of powers of parametrized matrices, for instance the inverse matrix or the logarithm of the determinant. Under the assumption of affine dependence in the parameters, we use the Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM) to derive an approximation for powers of these matrices, from which we derive a nonintrusive approximation for the aforementioned limits. We derive upper bounds of the error made by the obtained formula. Finally, numerical comparisons with classical intrusive and nonintrusive approximation techniques are provided: in the considered test-cases, our algorithm performs well compared to the nonintrusive ones.

This article presents Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) plots, a tool for visualizing the model estimated by any supervised learning algorithm. Classical partial dependence plots (PDPs) help visualize the average partial relationship between the predicted response and one or more features. In the presence of substantial interaction effects, the partial response relationship can be heterogeneous. Thus, an average curve, such as the PDP, can obfuscate the complexity of the modeled relationship. Accordingly, ICE plots refine the partial dependence plot by graphing the functional relationship between the predicted response and the feature for individual observations. Specifically, ICE plots highlight the variation in the fitted values across the range of a covariate, suggesting where and to what extent heterogeneities might exist. In addition to providing a plotting suite for exploratory analysis, we include a visual test for additive structure in the data generating model. Through simulated examples and real data sets, we demonstrate how ICE plots can shed light on estimated models in ways PDPs cannot. Procedures outlined are available in the R package ICEbox.

Tucker decomposition is a powerful tensor model to handle multi-aspect data. It demonstrates the low-rank property by decomposing the grid-structured data as interactions between a core tensor and a set of object representations (factors). A fundamental assumption of such decomposition is that there are finite objects in each aspect or mode, corresponding to discrete indexes of data entries. However, real-world data is often not naturally posed in this setting. For example, geographic data is represented as continuous indexes of latitude and longitude coordinates, and cannot fit tensor models directly. To generalize Tucker decomposition to such scenarios, we propose Functional Bayesian Tucker Decomposition (FunBaT). We treat the continuous-indexed data as the interaction between the Tucker core and a group of latent functions. We use Gaussian processes (GP) as functional priors to model the latent functions. Then, we convert each GP into a state-space prior by constructing an equivalent stochastic differential equation (SDE) to reduce computational cost. An efficient inference algorithm is developed for scalable posterior approximation based on advanced message-passing techniques. The advantage of our method is shown in both synthetic data and several real-world applications. We release the code of FunBaT at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Functional-Bayesian-Tucker-Decomposition.

In observational studies, balancing covariates in different treatment groups is essential to estimate treatment effects. One of the most commonly used methods for such purposes is weighting. The performance of this class of methods usually depends on strong regularity conditions for the underlying model, which might not hold in practice. In this paper, we investigate weighting methods from a functional estimation perspective and argue that the weights needed for covariate balancing could differ from those needed for treatment effects estimation under low regularity conditions. Motivated by this observation, we introduce a new framework of weighting that directly targets the treatment effects estimation. Unlike existing methods, the resulting estimator for a treatment effect under this new framework is a simple kernel-based U-statistic after applying a data-driven transformation to the observed covariates. We characterize the theoretical properties of the new estimators of treatment effects under a nonparametric setting and show that they are able to work robustly under low regularity conditions. The new framework is also applied to several numerical examples to demonstrate its practical merits.

This is the 1st part of the dissertation for my master degree and compares the power consumption using the default floating point (32bit) and Nvidia mixed precision (16bit and 32bit) while training a classification ML model. A custom PC with specific hardware was built to perform the experiments, and different ML hyper-parameters, such as batch size, neurons, and epochs, were chosen to build Deep Neural Networks (DNN). Additionally, various software was used during the experiments to collect the power consumption data in Watts from the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), Central Processing Unit (CPU), Random Access Memory (RAM) and manually from a wattmeter connected to the wall. A benchmarking test with default hyper parameter values for the DNN was used as a reference, while the experiments used a combination of different settings. The results were recorded in Excel, and descriptive statistics were chosen to calculate the mean between the groups and compare them using graphs and tables. The outcome was positive when using mixed precision combined with specific hyper-parameters. Compared to the benchmarking, the optimisation for the classification reduced the power consumption between 7 and 11 Watts. Similarly, the carbon footprint is reduced because the calculation uses the same power consumption data. Still, a consideration is required when configuring hyper-parameters because it can negatively affect hardware performance. However, this research required inferential statistics, specifically ANOVA and T-test, to compare the relationship between the means. Furthermore, tests indicated no statistical significance of the relationship between the benchmarking and experiments. However, a more extensive implementation with a cluster of GPUs can increase the sample size significantly, as it is an essential factor and can change the outcome of the statistical analysis.

Amid mounting concern about the reliability and credibility of machine learning research, we present a principled framework for making robust and generalizable claims: the multiverse analysis. Our framework builds upon the multiverse analysis (Steegen et al., 2016) introduced in response to psychology's own reproducibility crisis. To efficiently explore high-dimensional and often continuous ML search spaces, we model the multiverse with a Gaussian Process surrogate and apply Bayesian experimental design. Our framework is designed to facilitate drawing robust scientific conclusions about model performance, and thus our approach focuses on exploration rather than conventional optimization. In the first of two case studies, we investigate disputed claims about the relative merit of adaptive optimizers. Second, we synthesize conflicting research on the effect of learning rate on the large batch training generalization gap. For the machine learning community, the multiverse analysis is a simple and effective technique for identifying robust claims, for increasing transparency, and a step toward improved reproducibility.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

This paper focuses on the construction of a general parametric model that can be implemented executing multiple swap tests over few qubits and applying a suitable measurement protocol. The model turns out to be equivalent to a two-layer feedforward neural network which can be realized combining small quantum modules. The advantages and the perspectives of the proposed quantum method are discussed.

Multi-document summarization (MDS) is a difficult task in Natural Language Processing, aiming to summarize information from several documents. However, the source documents are often insufficient to obtain a qualitative summary. We propose a retriever-guided model combined with non-parametric memory for summary generation. This model retrieves relevant candidates from a database and then generates the summary considering the candidates with a copy mechanism and the source documents. The retriever is implemented with Approximate Nearest Neighbor Search (ANN) to search large databases. Our method is evaluated on the MultiXScience dataset which includes scientific articles. Finally, we discuss our results and possible directions for future work.

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.

Empirically validating new 3D-printing related algorithms and implementations requires testing data representative of inputs encountered in the wild. An ideal benchmarking dataset should not only draw from the same distribution of shapes people print in terms of class (e.g., toys, mechanisms, jewelry), representation type (e.g., triangle soup meshes) and complexity (e.g., number of facets), but should also capture problems and artifacts endemic to 3D printing models (e.g., self-intersections, non-manifoldness). We observe that the contextual and geometric characteristics of 3D printing models differ significantly from those used for computer graphics applications, not to mention standard models (e.g., Stanford bunny, Armadillo, Fertility). We present a new dataset of 10,000 models collected from an online 3D printing model-sharing database. Via analysis of both geometric (e.g., triangle aspect ratios, manifoldness) and contextual (e.g., licenses, tags, classes) characteristics, we demonstrate that this dataset represents a more concise summary of real-world models used for 3D printing compared to existing datasets. To facilitate future research endeavors, we also present an online query interface to select subsets of the dataset according to project-specific characteristics. The complete dataset and per-model statistical data are freely available to the public.

Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to select ``interesting'' instances with large unobserved labels from a pool of unlabeled data, while controlling the FDR in finite sample. For validity, existing solutions require the model choice to be independent of the data used to construct the p-values and calibrate the selection set. However, when presented with many model choices and limited labeled data, it is desirable to (i) select the best model in a data-driven manner, and (ii) mitigate power loss due to sample splitting. This paper presents OptCS, a general framework that allows valid statistical testing (selection) after flexible data-driven model optimization. We introduce general conditions under which OptCS constructs valid conformal p-values despite substantial data reuse and handles complex p-value dependencies to maintain finite-sample FDR control via a novel multiple testing procedure. We instantiate this general recipe to propose three FDR-controlling procedures, each optimizing the models differently: (i) selecting the most powerful one among multiple pre-trained candidate models, (ii) using all data for model fitting without sample splitting, and (iii) combining full-sample model fitting and selection. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods via simulation studies and real applications in drug discovery and alignment of large language models in radiology report generation.

We describe nonparametric deconvolution models (NDMs), a family of Bayesian nonparametric models for collections of data in which each observation is the average over the features from heterogeneous particles. For example, these types of data are found in elections, where we observe precinct-level vote tallies (observations) of individual citizens' votes (particles) across each of the candidates or ballot measures (features), where each voter is part of a specific voter cohort or demographic (factor). Like the hierarchical Dirichlet process, NDMs rely on two tiers of Dirichlet processes to explain the data with an unknown number of latent factors; each observation is modeled as a weighted average of these latent factors. Unlike existing models, NDMs recover how factor distributions vary locally for each observation. This uniquely allows NDMs both to deconvolve each observation into its constituent factors, and also to describe how the factor distributions specific to each observation vary across observations and deviate from the corresponding global factors. We present variational inference techniques for this family of models and study its performance on simulated data and voting data from California. We show that including local factors improves estimates of global factors and provides a novel scaffold for exploring data.

We introduce SummScreen, a summarization dataset comprised of pairs of TV series transcripts and human written recaps. The dataset provides a challenging testbed for abstractive summarization for several reasons. Plot details are often expressed indirectly in character dialogues and may be scattered across the entirety of the transcript. These details must be found and integrated to form the succinct plot descriptions in the recaps. Also, TV scripts contain content that does not directly pertain to the central plot but rather serves to develop characters or provide comic relief. This information is rarely contained in recaps. Since characters are fundamental to TV series, we also propose two entity-centric evaluation metrics. Empirically, we characterize the dataset by evaluating several methods, including neural models and those based on nearest neighbors. An oracle extractive approach outperforms all benchmarked models according to automatic metrics, showing that the neural models are unable to fully exploit the input transcripts. Human evaluation and qualitative analysis reveal that our non-oracle models are competitive with their oracle counterparts in terms of generating faithful plot events and can benefit from better content selectors. Both oracle and non-oracle models generate unfaithful facts, suggesting future research directions.

We give the first efficient algorithm for learning halfspaces in the testable learning model recently defined by Rubinfeld and Vasilyan (2023). In this model, a learner certifies that the accuracy of its output hypothesis is near optimal whenever the training set passes an associated test, and training sets drawn from some target distribution -- e.g., the Gaussian -- must pass the test. This model is more challenging than distribution-specific agnostic or Massart noise models where the learner is allowed to fail arbitrarily if the distributional assumption does not hold. We consider the setting where the target distribution is Gaussian (or more generally any strongly log-concave distribution) in d dimensions and the noise model is either Massart or adversarial (agnostic). For Massart noise, our tester-learner runs in polynomial time and outputs a hypothesis with (information-theoretically optimal) error opt + epsilon for any strongly log-concave target distribution. For adversarial noise, our tester-learner obtains error O(opt) + epsilon in polynomial time when the target distribution is Gaussian; for strongly log-concave distributions, we obtain O(opt) + epsilon in quasipolynomial time. Prior work on testable learning ignores the labels in the training set and checks that the empirical moments of the covariates are close to the moments of the base distribution. Here we develop new tests of independent interest that make critical use of the labels and combine them with the moment-matching approach of Gollakota et al. (2023). This enables us to simulate a variant of the algorithm of Diakonikolas et al. (2020) for learning noisy halfspaces using nonconvex SGD but in the testable learning setting.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

Despite its importance to experimental design, statistical power (the probability that, given a real effect, an experiment will reject the null hypothesis) has largely been ignored by the NLP community. Underpowered experiments make it more difficult to discern the difference between statistical noise and meaningful model improvements, and increase the chances of exaggerated findings. By meta-analyzing a set of existing NLP papers and datasets, we characterize typical power for a variety of settings and conclude that underpowered experiments are common in the NLP literature. In particular, for several tasks in the popular GLUE benchmark, small test sets mean that most attempted comparisons to state of the art models will not be adequately powered. Similarly, based on reasonable assumptions, we find that the most typical experimental design for human rating studies will be underpowered to detect small model differences, of the sort that are frequently studied. For machine translation, we find that typical test sets of 2000 sentences have approximately 75% power to detect differences of 1 BLEU point. To improve the situation going forward, we give an overview of best practices for power analysis in NLP and release a series of notebooks to assist with future power analyses.

When fitting the learning data of an individual to algorithm-like learning models, the observations are so dependent and non-stationary that one may wonder what the classical Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) could do, even if it is the usual tool applied to experimental cognition. Our objective in this work is to show that the estimation of the learning rate cannot be efficient if the learning rate is constant in the classical Exp3 (Exponential weights for Exploration and Exploitation) algorithm. Secondly, we show that if the learning rate decreases polynomially with the sample size, then the prediction error and in some cases the estimation error of the MLE satisfy bounds in probability that decrease at a polynomial rate.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

In this paper, we introduce FITS, a lightweight yet powerful model for time series analysis. Unlike existing models that directly process raw time-domain data, FITS operates on the principle that time series can be manipulated through interpolation in the complex frequency domain. By discarding high-frequency components with negligible impact on time series data, FITS achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art models for time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks, while having a remarkably compact size of only approximately 10k parameters. Such a lightweight model can be easily trained and deployed in edge devices, creating opportunities for various applications. The code is available in: https://github.com/VEWOXIC/FITS

We reanalyze the spectral lag data for GRB 160625B using frequentist inference in order to constrain the energy scale (E_{QG}) of Lorentz Invariance Violation (LIV). For this purpose, we use profile likelihood to deal with the astrophysical nuisance parameters. This is in contrast to Bayesian inference implemented in previous works, where marginalization was carried out over the nuisance parameters. We show that with profile likelihood, we do not find a global minimum for chi^2 as a function of E_{QG} below the Planck scale for both linear and quadratic models of LIV, whereas bounded credible intervals were previously obtained using Bayesian inference. Therefore, we can set one-sided lower limits in a straightforward manner. We find that E_{QG} geq 2.55 times 10^{16} GeV and E_{QG} geq 1.85 times 10^7 GeV at 95\% c.l., for linear and quadratic LIV, respectively. Therefore, this is the first proof-of-principles application of profile likelihood method to the analysis of GRB spectral lag data to constrain LIV.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

The recent success of distributed word representations has led to an increased interest in analyzing the properties of their spatial distribution. Several studies have suggested that contextualized word embedding models do not isotropically project tokens into vector space. However, current methods designed to measure isotropy, such as average random cosine similarity and the partition score, have not been thoroughly analyzed and are not appropriate for measuring isotropy. We propose IsoScore: a novel tool that quantifies the degree to which a point cloud uniformly utilizes the ambient vector space. Using rigorously designed tests, we demonstrate that IsoScore is the only tool available in the literature that accurately measures how uniformly distributed variance is across dimensions in vector space. Additionally, we use IsoScore to challenge a number of recent conclusions in the NLP literature that have been derived using brittle metrics of isotropy. We caution future studies from using existing tools to measure isotropy in contextualized embedding space as resulting conclusions will be misleading or altogether inaccurate.

We initiate the study of proper losses for evaluating generative models in the discrete setting. Unlike traditional proper losses, we treat both the generative model and the target distribution as black-boxes, only assuming ability to draw i.i.d. samples. We define a loss to be black-box proper if the generative distribution that minimizes expected loss is equal to the target distribution. Using techniques from statistical estimation theory, we give a general construction and characterization of black-box proper losses: they must take a polynomial form, and the number of draws from the model and target distribution must exceed the degree of the polynomial. The characterization rules out a loss whose expectation is the cross-entropy between the target distribution and the model. By extending the construction to arbitrary sampling schemes such as Poisson sampling, however, we show that one can construct such a loss.

Unlabeled data is a key component of modern machine learning. In general, the role of unlabeled data is to impose a form of smoothness, usually from the similarity information encoded in a base kernel, such as the epsilon-neighbor kernel or the adjacency matrix of a graph. This work revisits the classical idea of spectrally transformed kernel regression (STKR), and provides a new class of general and scalable STKR estimators able to leverage unlabeled data. Intuitively, via spectral transformation, STKR exploits the data distribution for which unlabeled data can provide additional information. First, we show that STKR is a principled and general approach, by characterizing a universal type of "target smoothness", and proving that any sufficiently smooth function can be learned by STKR. Second, we provide scalable STKR implementations for the inductive setting and a general transformation function, while prior work is mostly limited to the transductive setting. Third, we derive statistical guarantees for two scenarios: STKR with a known polynomial transformation, and STKR with kernel PCA when the transformation is unknown. Overall, we believe that this work helps deepen our understanding of how to work with unlabeled data, and its generality makes it easier to inspire new methods.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

Variational inference using the reparameterization trick has enabled large-scale approximate Bayesian inference in complex probabilistic models, leveraging stochastic optimization to sidestep intractable expectations. The reparameterization trick is applicable when we can simulate a random variable by applying a differentiable deterministic function on an auxiliary random variable whose distribution is fixed. For many distributions of interest (such as the gamma or Dirichlet), simulation of random variables relies on acceptance-rejection sampling. The discontinuity introduced by the accept-reject step means that standard reparameterization tricks are not applicable. We propose a new method that lets us leverage reparameterization gradients even when variables are outputs of a acceptance-rejection sampling algorithm. Our approach enables reparameterization on a larger class of variational distributions. In several studies of real and synthetic data, we show that the variance of the estimator of the gradient is significantly lower than other state-of-the-art methods. This leads to faster convergence of stochastic gradient variational inference.

We present a new algorithm to optimize distributions defined implicitly by parameterized stochastic diffusions. Doing so allows us to modify the outcome distribution of sampling processes by optimizing over their parameters. We introduce a general framework for first-order optimization of these processes, that performs jointly, in a single loop, optimization and sampling steps. This approach is inspired by recent advances in bilevel optimization and automatic implicit differentiation, leveraging the point of view of sampling as optimization over the space of probability distributions. We provide theoretical guarantees on the performance of our method, as well as experimental results demonstrating its effectiveness in real-world settings.

When two different parties use the same learning rule on their own data, how can we test whether the distributions of the two outcomes are similar? In this paper, we study the similarity of outcomes of learning rules through the lens of the Total Variation (TV) distance of distributions. We say that a learning rule is TV indistinguishable if the expected TV distance between the posterior distributions of its outputs, executed on two training data sets drawn independently from the same distribution, is small. We first investigate the learnability of hypothesis classes using TV indistinguishable learners. Our main results are information-theoretic equivalences between TV indistinguishability and existing algorithmic stability notions such as replicability and approximate differential privacy. Then, we provide statistical amplification and boosting algorithms for TV indistinguishable learners.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

In this paper, we find a sample complexity bound for learning a simplex from noisy samples. Assume a dataset of size n is given which includes i.i.d. samples drawn from a uniform distribution over an unknown simplex in R^K, where samples are assumed to be corrupted by a multi-variate additive Gaussian noise of an arbitrary magnitude. We prove the existence of an algorithm that with high probability outputs a simplex having a ell_2 distance of at most varepsilon from the true simplex (for any varepsilon>0). Also, we theoretically show that in order to achieve this bound, it is sufficient to have ngeleft(K^2/varepsilon^2right)e^{Omegaleft(K/SNR^2right)} samples, where SNR stands for the signal-to-noise ratio. This result solves an important open problem and shows as long as SNRgeOmegaleft(K^{1/2}right), the sample complexity of the noisy regime has the same order to that of the noiseless case. Our proofs are a combination of the so-called sample compression technique in ashtiani2018nearly, mathematical tools from high-dimensional geometry, and Fourier analysis. In particular, we have proposed a general Fourier-based technique for recovery of a more general class of distribution families from additive Gaussian noise, which can be further used in a variety of other related problems.

Generalized Category Discovery (GCD) aims to discover novel categories in unlabelled datasets using knowledge learned from labelled samples. Previous studies argued that parametric classifiers are prone to overfitting to seen categories, and endorsed using a non-parametric classifier formed with semi-supervised k-means. However, in this study, we investigate the failure of parametric classifiers, verify the effectiveness of previous design choices when high-quality supervision is available, and identify unreliable pseudo-labels as a key problem. We demonstrate that two prediction biases exist: the classifier tends to predict seen classes more often, and produces an imbalanced distribution across seen and novel categories. Based on these findings, we propose a simple yet effective parametric classification method that benefits from entropy regularisation, achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple GCD benchmarks and shows strong robustness to unknown class numbers. We hope the investigation and proposed simple framework can serve as a strong baseline to facilitate future studies in this field. Our code is available at: https://github.com/CVMI-Lab/SimGCD.

Kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD) is a score-based discrepancy widely used in goodness-of-fit tests. It can be applied even when the target distribution has an unknown normalising factor, such as in Bayesian analysis. We show theoretically and empirically that the KSD test can suffer from low power when the target and the alternative distributions have the same well-separated modes but differ in mixing proportions. We propose to perturb the observed sample via Markov transition kernels, with respect to which the target distribution is invariant. This allows us to then employ the KSD test on the perturbed sample. We provide numerical evidence that with suitably chosen transition kernels the proposed approach can lead to substantially higher power than the KSD test.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

We introduce a model-based asynchronous multi-fidelity method for hyperparameter and neural architecture search that combines the strengths of asynchronous Hyperband and Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization. At the heart of our method is a probabilistic model that can simultaneously reason across hyperparameters and resource levels, and supports decision-making in the presence of pending evaluations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on a wide range of challenging benchmarks, for tabular data, image classification and language modelling, and report substantial speed-ups over current state-of-the-art methods. Our new methods, along with asynchronous baselines, are implemented in a distributed framework which will be open sourced along with this publication.

Recent work has highlighted the complex influence training hyperparameters, e.g., the number of training epochs, can have on the prunability of machine learning models. Perhaps surprisingly, a systematic approach to predict precisely how adjusting a specific hyperparameter will affect prunability remains elusive. To address this gap, we introduce a phenomenological model grounded in the statistical mechanics of learning. Our approach uses temperature-like and load-like parameters to model the impact of neural network (NN) training hyperparameters on pruning performance. A key empirical result we identify is a sharp transition phenomenon: depending on the value of a load-like parameter in the pruned model, increasing the value of a temperature-like parameter in the pre-pruned model may either enhance or impair subsequent pruning performance. Based on this transition, we build a three-regime model by taxonomizing the global structure of the pruned NN loss landscape. Our model reveals that the dichotomous effect of high temperature is associated with transitions between distinct types of global structures in the post-pruned model. Based on our results, we present three case-studies: 1) determining whether to increase or decrease a hyperparameter for improved pruning; 2) selecting the best model to prune from a family of models; and 3) tuning the hyperparameter of the Sharpness Aware Minimization method for better pruning performance.

We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor graph associated with the emission distribution. This allows the exponential-in-dimension cost of exact filtering and smoothing to be avoided. We prove that the approximation accuracy, measured in a local total variation norm, is "dimension-free" in the sense that as the overall dimension of the model increases the error bounds we derive do not necessarily degrade. A key step in the analysis is to quantify the error introduced by localizing the likelihood function in a Bayes' rule update. The factorial structure of the likelihood function which we exploit arises naturally when data have known spatial or network structure. We demonstrate the new algorithms on synthetic examples and a London Underground passenger flow problem, where the factor graph is effectively given by the train network.

Systems based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) have achieved state-of-the-art results in many natural language processing tasks. Although ANNs do not require manually engineered features, ANNs have many hyperparameters to be optimized. The choice of hyperparameters significantly impacts models' performances. However, the ANN hyperparameters are typically chosen by manual, grid, or random search, which either requires expert experiences or is computationally expensive. Recent approaches based on Bayesian optimization using Gaussian processes (GPs) is a more systematic way to automatically pinpoint optimal or near-optimal machine learning hyperparameters. Using a previously published ANN model yielding state-of-the-art results for dialog act classification, we demonstrate that optimizing hyperparameters using GP further improves the results, and reduces the computational time by a factor of 4 compared to a random search. Therefore it is a useful technique for tuning ANN models to yield the best performances for natural language processing tasks.

Symbolic regression plays a crucial role in modern scientific research thanks to its capability of discovering concise and interpretable mathematical expressions from data. A grand challenge lies in the arduous search for parsimonious and generalizable mathematical formulas, in an infinite search space, while intending to fit the training data. Existing algorithms have faced a critical bottleneck of accuracy and efficiency over a decade when handling problems of complexity, which essentially hinders the pace of applying symbolic regression for scientific exploration across interdisciplinary domains. To this end, we introduce a parallelized tree search (PTS) model to efficiently distill generic mathematical expressions from limited data. Through a series of extensive experiments, we demonstrate the superior accuracy and efficiency of PTS for equation discovery, which greatly outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline models on over 80 synthetic and experimental datasets (e.g., lifting its performance by up to 99% accuracy improvement and one-order of magnitude speed up). PTS represents a key advance in accurate and efficient data-driven discovery of symbolic, interpretable models (e.g., underlying physical laws) and marks a pivotal transition towards scalable symbolic learning.

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

Cluster analysis relies on effective benchmarks for evaluating and comparing different algorithms. Simulation studies on synthetic data are popular because important features of the data sets, such as the overlap between clusters, or the variation in cluster shapes, can be effectively varied. Unfortunately, creating evaluation scenarios is often laborious, as practitioners must translate higher-level scenario descriptions like "clusters with very different shapes" into lower-level geometric parameters such as cluster centers, covariance matrices, etc. To make benchmarks more convenient and informative, we propose synthetic data generation based on direct specification of high-level scenarios, either through verbal descriptions or high-level geometric parameters. Our open-source Python package repliclust implements this workflow, making it easy to set up interpretable and reproducible benchmarks for cluster analysis. A demo of data generation from verbal inputs is available at https://demo.repliclust.org.

Modularization is a cornerstone of computer science, abstracting complex functions into atomic building blocks. In this paper, we introduce a new level of modularization by abstracting generative models into atomic generative modules. Analogous to fractals in mathematics, our method constructs a new type of generative model by recursively invoking atomic generative modules, resulting in self-similar fractal architectures that we call fractal generative models. As a running example, we instantiate our fractal framework using autoregressive models as the atomic generative modules and examine it on the challenging task of pixel-by-pixel image generation, demonstrating strong performance in both likelihood estimation and generation quality. We hope this work could open a new paradigm in generative modeling and provide a fertile ground for future research. Code is available at https://github.com/LTH14/fractalgen.

We introduce a multi-fidelity estimator of covariance matrices that employs the log-Euclidean geometry of the symmetric positive-definite manifold. The estimator fuses samples from a hierarchy of data sources of differing fidelities and costs for variance reduction while guaranteeing definiteness, in contrast with previous approaches. The new estimator makes covariance estimation tractable in applications where simulation or data collection is expensive; to that end, we develop an optimal sample allocation scheme that minimizes the mean-squared error of the estimator given a fixed budget. Guaranteed definiteness is crucial to metric learning, data assimilation, and other downstream tasks. Evaluations of our approach using data from physical applications (heat conduction, fluid dynamics) demonstrate more accurate metric learning and speedups of more than one order of magnitude compared to benchmarks.

The recent advancements in text-to-3D generation mark a significant milestone in generative models, unlocking new possibilities for creating imaginative 3D assets across various real-world scenarios. While recent advancements in text-to-3D generation have shown promise, they often fall short in rendering detailed and high-quality 3D models. This problem is especially prevalent as many methods base themselves on Score Distillation Sampling (SDS). This paper identifies a notable deficiency in SDS, that it brings inconsistent and low-quality updating direction for the 3D model, causing the over-smoothing effect. To address this, we propose a novel approach called Interval Score Matching (ISM). ISM employs deterministic diffusing trajectories and utilizes interval-based score matching to counteract over-smoothing. Furthermore, we incorporate 3D Gaussian Splatting into our text-to-3D generation pipeline. Extensive experiments show that our model largely outperforms the state-of-the-art in quality and training efficiency.

We present a web-based software tool, the Virtual Quantum Optics Laboratory (VQOL), that may be used for designing and executing realistic simulations of quantum optics experiments. A graphical user interface allows one to rapidly build and configure a variety of different optical experiments, while the runtime environment provides unique capabilities for visualization and analysis. All standard linear optical components are available as well as sources of thermal, coherent, and entangled Gaussian states. A unique aspect of VQOL is the introduction of non-Gaussian measurements using detectors modeled as deterministic devices that "click" when the amplitude of the light falls above a given threshold. We describe the underlying theoretical models and provide several illustrative examples. We find that VQOL provides a a faithful representation of many experimental quantum optics phenomena and may serve as both a useful instructional tool for students as well as a valuable research tool for practitioners.

Riemannian diffusion models draw inspiration from standard Euclidean space diffusion models to learn distributions on general manifolds. Unfortunately, the additional geometric complexity renders the diffusion transition term inexpressible in closed form, so prior methods resort to imprecise approximations of the score matching training objective that degrade performance and preclude applications in high dimensions. In this work, we reexamine these approximations and propose several practical improvements. Our key observation is that most relevant manifolds are symmetric spaces, which are much more amenable to computation. By leveraging and combining various ans\"{a}tze, we can quickly compute relevant quantities to high precision. On low dimensional datasets, our correction produces a noticeable improvement, allowing diffusion to compete with other methods. Additionally, we show that our method enables us to scale to high dimensional tasks on nontrivial manifolds. In particular, we model QCD densities on SU(n) lattices and contrastively learned embeddings on high dimensional hyperspheres.

We give an improved theoretical analysis of score-based generative modeling. Under a score estimate with small L^2 error (averaged across timesteps), we provide efficient convergence guarantees for any data distribution with second-order moment, by either employing early stopping or assuming smoothness condition on the score function of the data distribution. Our result does not rely on any log-concavity or functional inequality assumption and has a logarithmic dependence on the smoothness. In particular, we show that under only a finite second moment condition, approximating the following in reverse KL divergence in epsilon-accuracy can be done in tilde Oleft(d log (1/delta){epsilon}right) steps: 1) the variance-delta Gaussian perturbation of any data distribution; 2) data distributions with 1/delta-smooth score functions. Our analysis also provides a quantitative comparison between different discrete approximations and may guide the choice of discretization points in practice.

The performance of many machine learning models depends on their hyper-parameter settings. Bayesian Optimization has become a successful tool for hyper-parameter optimization of machine learning algorithms, which aims to identify optimal hyper-parameters during an iterative sequential process. However, most of the Bayesian Optimization algorithms are designed to select models for effectiveness only and ignore the important issue of model training efficiency. Given that both model effectiveness and training time are important for real-world applications, models selected for effectiveness may not meet the strict training time requirements necessary to deploy in a production environment. In this work, we present a unified Bayesian Optimization framework for jointly optimizing models for both prediction effectiveness and training efficiency. We propose an objective that captures the tradeoff between these two metrics and demonstrate how we can jointly optimize them in a principled Bayesian Optimization framework. Experiments on model selection for recommendation tasks indicate models selected this way significantly improves model training efficiency while maintaining strong effectiveness as compared to state-of-the-art Bayesian Optimization algorithms.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

We here propose a machine learning approach for monitoring particle detectors in real-time. The goal is to assess the compatibility of incoming experimental data with a reference dataset, characterising the data behaviour under normal circumstances, via a likelihood-ratio hypothesis test. The model is based on a modern implementation of kernel methods, nonparametric algorithms that can learn any continuous function given enough data. The resulting approach is efficient and agnostic to the type of anomaly that may be present in the data. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of this strategy on multivariate data from drift tube chamber muon detectors.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

Galaxy Zoo: Clump Scout is a web-based citizen science project designed to identify and spatially locate giant star forming clumps in galaxies that were imaged by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Legacy Survey. We present a statistically driven software framework that is designed to aggregate two-dimensional annotations of clump locations provided by multiple independent Galaxy Zoo: Clump Scout volunteers and generate a consensus label that identifies the locations of probable clumps within each galaxy. The statistical model our framework is based on allows us to assign false-positive probabilities to each of the clumps we identify, to estimate the skill levels of each of the volunteers who contribute to Galaxy Zoo: Clump Scout and also to quantitatively assess the reliability of the consensus labels that are derived for each subject. We apply our framework to a dataset containing 3,561,454 two-dimensional points, which constitute 1,739,259 annotations of 85,286 distinct subjects provided by 20,999 volunteers. Using this dataset, we identify 128,100 potential clumps distributed among 44,126 galaxies. This dataset can be used to study the prevalence and demographics of giant star forming clumps in low-redshift galaxies. The code for our aggregation software framework is publicly available at: https://github.com/ou-astrophysics/BoxAggregator

Many clustering schemes are defined by optimizing an objective function defined on the partitions of the underlying set of a finite metric space. In this paper, we construct a framework for studying what happens when we instead impose various structural conditions on the clustering schemes, under the general heading of functoriality. Functoriality refers to the idea that one should be able to compare the results of clustering algorithms as one varies the data set, for example by adding points or by applying functions to it. We show that within this framework, one can prove a theorems analogous to one of J. Kleinberg, in which for example one obtains an existence and uniqueness theorem instead of a non-existence result. We obtain a full classification of all clustering schemes satisfying a condition we refer to as excisiveness. The classification can be changed by varying the notion of maps of finite metric spaces. The conditions occur naturally when one considers clustering as the statistical version of the geometric notion of connected components. By varying the degree of functoriality that one requires from the schemes it is possible to construct richer families of clustering schemes that exhibit sensitivity to density.

Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs leverage large-scale machine learning techniques to approximate a large set of posteriors. The only requirement for PFNs to work is the ability to sample from a prior distribution over supervised learning tasks (or functions). Our method restates the objective of posterior approximation as a supervised classification problem with a set-valued input: it repeatedly draws a task (or function) from the prior, draws a set of data points and their labels from it, masks one of the labels and learns to make probabilistic predictions for it based on the set-valued input of the rest of the data points. Presented with a set of samples from a new supervised learning task as input, PFNs make probabilistic predictions for arbitrary other data points in a single forward propagation, having learned to approximate Bayesian inference. We demonstrate that PFNs can near-perfectly mimic Gaussian processes and also enable efficient Bayesian inference for intractable problems, with over 200-fold speedups in multiple setups compared to current methods. We obtain strong results in very diverse areas such as Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural networks, classification for small tabular data sets, and few-shot image classification, demonstrating the generality of PFNs. Code and trained PFNs are released at https://github.com/automl/TransformersCanDoBayesianInference.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

We present Manifold Diffusion Fields (MDF), an approach to learn generative models of continuous functions defined over Riemannian manifolds. Leveraging insights from spectral geometry analysis, we define an intrinsic coordinate system on the manifold via the eigen-functions of the Laplace-Beltrami Operator. MDF represents functions using an explicit parametrization formed by a set of multiple input-output pairs. Our approach allows to sample continuous functions on manifolds and is invariant with respect to rigid and isometric transformations of the manifold. Empirical results on several datasets and manifolds show that MDF can capture distributions of such functions with better diversity and fidelity than previous approaches.

We consider a biological population whose environment varies periodically in time, exhibiting two very different "seasons" : one is favorable and the other one is unfavorable. For monotone differential models with concave nonlinearities, we address the following question: the system's period being fixed, under what conditions does there exist a critical duration for the unfavorable season? By "critical duration" we mean that above some threshold, the population cannot sustain and extincts, while below this threshold, the system converges to a unique periodic and positive solution. We term this a "sharp seasonal threshold property" (SSTP, for short). Building upon a previous result, we obtain sufficient conditions for SSTP in any dimension and apply our criterion to a two-dimensional model featuring juvenile and adult populations of insects.

We consider the problem of ranking n experts based on their performances on d tasks. We make a monotonicity assumption stating that for each pair of experts, one outperforms the other on all tasks. We consider the sequential setting where in each round, the learner has access to noisy evaluations of actively chosen pair of expert-task, given the information available up to the actual round. Given a confidence parameter delta in (0, 1), we provide strategies allowing to recover the correct ranking of experts and develop a bound on the total number of queries made by our algorithm that hold with probability at least 1 -- delta. We show that our strategy is adaptive to the complexity of the problem (our bounds are instance dependent), and develop matching lower bounds up to a poly-logarithmic factor. Finally, we adapt our strategy to the relaxed problem of best expert identification and provide numerical simulation consistent with our theoretical results.

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

A primary cost driver for training large models is wall-clock training time. We show that popular time estimates based on FLOPs are poor estimates, and construct a more accurate proxy based on memory copies. We show that with some simple accounting, we can estimate the training speed of a transformer model from its hyperparameters. Combined with a scaling law curve like Chinchilla, this lets us estimate the final loss of the model. We fit our estimate to real data with a linear regression, and apply the result to rewrite Chinchilla in terms of a model's estimated training time as opposed to the amount of training data. This gives an expression for the loss in terms of the model's hyperparameters alone. We show that this expression is accurate across a wide range of model hyperparameter values, enabling us to analytically make architectural decisions and train models more efficiently.

We present Simplex Random Features (SimRFs), a new random feature (RF) mechanism for unbiased approximation of the softmax and Gaussian kernels by geometrical correlation of random projection vectors. We prove that SimRFs provide the smallest possible mean square error (MSE) on unbiased estimates of these kernels among the class of weight-independent geometrically-coupled positive random feature (PRF) mechanisms, substantially outperforming the previously most accurate Orthogonal Random Features at no observable extra cost. We present a more computationally expensive SimRFs+ variant, which we prove is asymptotically optimal in the broader family of weight-dependent geometrical coupling schemes (which permit correlations between random vector directions and norms). In extensive empirical studies, we show consistent gains provided by SimRFs in settings including pointwise kernel estimation, nonparametric classification and scalable Transformers.

We study the robust interpolation problem of arbitrary data distributions supported on a bounded space and propose a two-fold law of robustness. Robust interpolation refers to the problem of interpolating n noisy training data points in R^d by a Lipschitz function. Although this problem has been well understood when the samples are drawn from an isoperimetry distribution, much remains unknown concerning its performance under generic or even the worst-case distributions. We prove a Lipschitzness lower bound Omega(n/p) of the interpolating neural network with p parameters on arbitrary data distributions. With this result, we validate the law of robustness conjecture in prior work by Bubeck, Li, and Nagaraj on two-layer neural networks with polynomial weights. We then extend our result to arbitrary interpolating approximators and prove a Lipschitzness lower bound Omega(n^{1/d}) for robust interpolation. Our results demonstrate a two-fold law of robustness: i) we show the potential benefit of overparametrization for smooth data interpolation when n=poly(d), and ii) we disprove the potential existence of an O(1)-Lipschitz robust interpolating function when n=exp(omega(d)).

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Modern foundation models rely heavily on using scaling laws to guide crucial training decisions. Researchers often extrapolate the optimal architecture and hyper parameters settings from smaller training runs by describing the relationship between, loss, or task performance, and scale. All components of this process vary, from the specific equation being fit, to the training setup, to the optimization method. Each of these factors may affect the fitted law, and therefore, the conclusions of a given study. We discuss discrepancies in the conclusions that several prior works reach, on questions such as the optimal token to parameter ratio. We augment this discussion with our own analysis of the critical impact that changes in specific details may effect in a scaling study, and the resulting altered conclusions. Additionally, we survey over 50 papers that study scaling trends: while 45 of these papers quantify these trends using a power law, most under-report crucial details needed to reproduce their findings. To mitigate this, we we propose a checklist for authors to consider while contributing to scaling law research.

The kernel thinning (KT) algorithm of Dwivedi and Mackey (2021) compresses a probability distribution more effectively than independent sampling by targeting a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and leveraging a less smooth square-root kernel. Here we provide four improvements. First, we show that KT applied directly to the target RKHS yields tighter, dimension-free guarantees for any kernel, any distribution, and any fixed function in the RKHS. Second, we show that, for analytic kernels like Gaussian, inverse multiquadric, and sinc, target KT admits maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) guarantees comparable to or better than those of square-root KT without making explicit use of a square-root kernel. Third, we prove that KT with a fractional power kernel yields better-than-Monte-Carlo MMD guarantees for non-smooth kernels, like Laplace and Mat\'ern, that do not have square-roots. Fourth, we establish that KT applied to a sum of the target and power kernels (a procedure we call KT+) simultaneously inherits the improved MMD guarantees of power KT and the tighter individual function guarantees of target KT. In our experiments with target KT and KT+, we witness significant improvements in integration error even in 100 dimensions and when compressing challenging differential equation posteriors.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Measuring geometric similarity between high-dimensional network representations is a topic of longstanding interest to neuroscience and deep learning. Although many methods have been proposed, only a few works have rigorously analyzed their statistical efficiency or quantified estimator uncertainty in data-limited regimes. Here, we derive upper and lower bounds on the worst-case convergence of standard estimators of shape distancex2014a measure of representational dissimilarity proposed by Williams et al. (2021).These bounds reveal the challenging nature of the problem in high-dimensional feature spaces. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a new method-of-moments estimator with a tunable bias-variance tradeoff. We show that this estimator achieves substantially lower bias than standard estimators in simulation and on neural data, particularly in high-dimensional settings. Thus, we lay the foundation for a rigorous statistical theory for high-dimensional shape analysis, and we contribute a new estimation method that is well-suited to practical scientific settings.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is a critical requirement for the deployment of deep neural networks. This paper introduces the HEAT model, a new post-hoc OOD detection method estimating the density of in-distribution (ID) samples using hybrid energy-based models (EBM) in the feature space of a pre-trained backbone. HEAT complements prior density estimators of the ID density, e.g. parametric models like the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), to provide an accurate yet robust density estimation. A second contribution is to leverage the EBM framework to provide a unified density estimation and to compose several energy terms. Extensive experiments demonstrate the significance of the two contributions. HEAT sets new state-of-the-art OOD detection results on the CIFAR-10 / CIFAR-100 benchmark as well as on the large-scale Imagenet benchmark. The code is available at: https://github.com/MarcLafon/heatood.

Distinction of OFDM signals from single carrier signals is highly important for adaptive receiver algorithms and signal identification applications. OFDM signals exhibit Gaussian characteristics in time domain and fourth order cumulants of Gaussian distributed signals vanish in contrary to the cumulants of other signals. Thus fourth order cumulants can be utilized for OFDM signal identification. In this paper, first, formulations of the estimates of the fourth order cumulants for OFDM signals are provided. Then it is shown these estimates are affected significantly from the wireless channel impairments, frequency offset, phase offset and sampling mismatch. To overcome these problems, a general chi-square constant false alarm rate Gaussianity test which employs estimates of cumulants and their covariances is adapted to the specific case of wireless OFDM signals. Estimation of the covariance matrix of the fourth order cumulants are greatly simplified peculiar to the OFDM signals. A measurement setup is developed to analyze the performance of the identification method and for comparison purposes. A parametric measurement analysis is provided depending on modulation order, signal to noise ratio, number of symbols, and degree of freedom of the underlying test. The proposed method outperforms statistical tests which are based on fixed thresholds or empirical values, while a priori information requirement and complexity of the proposed method are lower than the coherent identification techniques.

The Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) is a computationally efficient and theoretically grounded alternative to the Wasserstein distance. Yet, the literature on its statistical properties -- or, more accurately, its generalization properties -- with respect to the distribution of slices, beyond the uniform measure, is scarce. To bring new contributions to this line of research, we leverage the PAC-Bayesian theory and a central observation that SW may be interpreted as an average risk, the quantity PAC-Bayesian bounds have been designed to characterize. We provide three types of results: i) PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds that hold on what we refer as adaptive Sliced-Wasserstein distances, i.e. SW defined with respect to arbitrary distributions of slices (among which data-dependent distributions), ii) a principled procedure to learn the distribution of slices that yields maximally discriminative SW, by optimizing our theoretical bounds, and iii) empirical illustrations of our theoretical findings.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Simulation-based inference with conditional neural density estimators is a powerful approach to solving inverse problems in science. However, these methods typically treat the underlying forward model as a black box, with no way to exploit geometric properties such as equivariances. Equivariances are common in scientific models, however integrating them directly into expressive inference networks (such as normalizing flows) is not straightforward. We here describe an alternative method to incorporate equivariances under joint transformations of parameters and data. Our method -- called group equivariant neural posterior estimation (GNPE) -- is based on self-consistently standardizing the "pose" of the data while estimating the posterior over parameters. It is architecture-independent, and applies both to exact and approximate equivariances. As a real-world application, we use GNPE for amortized inference of astrophysical binary black hole systems from gravitational-wave observations. We show that GNPE achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while reducing inference times by three orders of magnitude.

In many neural networks, different values of the parameters may result in the same loss value. Parameter space symmetries are loss-invariant transformations that change the model parameters. Teleportation applies such transformations to accelerate optimization. However, the exact mechanism behind this algorithm's success is not well understood. In this paper, we show that teleportation not only speeds up optimization in the short-term, but gives overall faster time to convergence. Additionally, teleporting to minima with different curvatures improves generalization, which suggests a connection between the curvature of the minimum and generalization ability. Finally, we show that integrating teleportation into a wide range of optimization algorithms and optimization-based meta-learning improves convergence. Our results showcase the versatility of teleportation and demonstrate the potential of incorporating symmetry in optimization.

Statistics of grain sizes and orientations in metals correlate to the material's mechanical properties. Reproducing representative volume elements for further analysis of deformation and failure in metals, like 316L stainless steel, is particularly important due to their wide use in manufacturing goods today. Two approaches, initially created for video games, were considered for the procedural generation of representative grain microstructures. The first is the Wave Function Collapse (WFC) algorithm, and the second is constraint propagation and probabilistic inference through Markov Junior, a free and open-source software. This study aimed to investigate these two algorithms' effectiveness in using reference electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) maps and recreating a statistically similar one that could be used in further research. It utilized two stainless steel EBSD maps as references to test both algorithms. First, the WFC algorithm was too constricting and, thus, incapable of producing images that resembled EBSDs. The second, MarkovJunior, was much more effective in creating a Voronoi tessellation that could be used to create an EBSD map in Python. When comparing the results between the reference and the generated EBSD, we discovered that the orientation and volume fractions were extremely similar. With the study, it was concluded that MarkovJunior is an effective machine learning tool that can reproduce representative grain microstructures.

Unsupervised pretraining, which learns a useful representation using a large amount of unlabeled data to facilitate the learning of downstream tasks, is a critical component of modern large-scale machine learning systems. Despite its tremendous empirical success, the rigorous theoretical understanding of why unsupervised pretraining generally helps remains rather limited -- most existing results are restricted to particular methods or approaches for unsupervised pretraining with specialized structural assumptions. This paper studies a generic framework, where the unsupervised representation learning task is specified by an abstract class of latent variable models Phi and the downstream task is specified by a class of prediction functions Psi. We consider a natural approach of using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for unsupervised pretraining and Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) for learning downstream tasks. We prove that, under a mild ''informative'' condition, our algorithm achieves an excess risk of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_Phi/m} + mathcal{C_Psi/n}) for downstream tasks, where C_Phi, C_Psi are complexity measures of function classes Phi, Psi, and m, n are the number of unlabeled and labeled data respectively. Comparing to the baseline of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_{Phi circ Psi}/n}) achieved by performing supervised learning using only the labeled data, our result rigorously shows the benefit of unsupervised pretraining when m gg n and C_{Phicirc Psi} > C_Psi. This paper further shows that our generic framework covers a wide range of approaches for unsupervised pretraining, including factor models, Gaussian mixture models, and contrastive learning.

Reversing a diffusion process by learning its score forms the heart of diffusion-based generative modeling and for estimating properties of scientific systems. The diffusion processes that are tractable center on linear processes with a Gaussian stationary distribution. This limits the kinds of models that can be built to those that target a Gaussian prior or more generally limits the kinds of problems that can be generically solved to those that have conditionally linear score functions. In this work, we introduce a family of tractable denoising score matching objectives, called local-DSM, built using local increments of the diffusion process. We show how local-DSM melded with Taylor expansions enables automated training and score estimation with nonlinear diffusion processes. To demonstrate these ideas, we use automated-DSM to train generative models using non-Gaussian priors on challenging low dimensional distributions and the CIFAR10 image dataset. Additionally, we use the automated-DSM to learn the scores for nonlinear processes studied in statistical physics.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

Despite the recent advances in the field of computational Schr\"odinger Bridges (SB), most existing SB solvers are still heavy-weighted and require complex optimization of several neural networks. It turns out that there is no principal solver which plays the role of simple-yet-effective baseline for SB just like, e.g., k-means method in clustering, logistic regression in classification or Sinkhorn algorithm in discrete optimal transport. We address this issue and propose a novel fast and simple SB solver. Our development is a smart combination of two ideas which recently appeared in the field: (a) parameterization of the Schr\"odinger potentials with sum-exp quadratic functions and (b) viewing the log-Schr\"odinger potentials as the energy functions. We show that combined together these ideas yield a lightweight, simulation-free and theoretically justified SB solver with a simple straightforward optimization objective. As a result, it allows solving SB in moderate dimensions in a matter of minutes on CPU without a painful hyperparameter selection. Our light solver resembles the Gaussian mixture model which is widely used for density estimation. Inspired by this similarity, we also prove an important theoretical result showing that our light solver is a universal approximator of SBs. Furthemore, we conduct the analysis of the generalization error of our light solver. The code for our solver can be found at https://github.com/ngushchin/LightSB

Performance of machine learning algorithms depends critically on identifying a good set of hyperparameters. While recent approaches use Bayesian optimization to adaptively select configurations, we focus on speeding up random search through adaptive resource allocation and early-stopping. We formulate hyperparameter optimization as a pure-exploration non-stochastic infinite-armed bandit problem where a predefined resource like iterations, data samples, or features is allocated to randomly sampled configurations. We introduce a novel algorithm, Hyperband, for this framework and analyze its theoretical properties, providing several desirable guarantees. Furthermore, we compare Hyperband with popular Bayesian optimization methods on a suite of hyperparameter optimization problems. We observe that Hyperband can provide over an order-of-magnitude speedup over our competitor set on a variety of deep-learning and kernel-based learning problems.

In this work, we aim to estimate the stellar parameters of the primary (Aa) by performing asteroseismic analysis on its period-spacing pattern. We use the C-3PO neural network to perform asteroseismic modelling of the g-mode period-spacing pattern of Aa, discussing the interplay of this information with external constraints from spectroscopy (T_{rm eff} and log(g)) and eclipse modelling (R). To estimate the level of uncertainty due to different frequency extraction and pattern identification processes, we consider four different variations on the period-spacing patterns. To better understand the correlations between and the uncertainty structure of our parameter estimates, we also employed a classical, parameter-based MCMC grid search on four different stellar grids. The best-fitting, externally constrained model to the period-spacing pattern arrives at estimates of the stellar properties for Aa of: M=1.51 pm 0.05 M_odot, X_c =0.43 pm 0.04, R=1.66 pm 0.1 R_odot, f_{rm ov}=0.010, Omega_c=1.58 pm 0.01 d^{-1} with rigid rotation to within the measurement errors, log(T_{rm eff})=3.856 pm 0.008 dex, log(g)=4.18 pm 0.04 dex, and log(L)=0.809 pm 0.005 dex, which agree well with previous measurements from eclipse modelling, spectroscopy, and the Gaia DR3 luminosity. We find that the near-core properties of the best-fitting asteroseismic models are consistent with external constraints from eclipse modelling and spectroscopy. Aa appears to be a typical example of a gamma Dor star, fitting well within existing populations. We find that Aa is quasi-rigidly rotating to within the uncertainties, and note that the asteroseismic age estimate for Aa (1100 pm 100 Myr) is considerably older than the young (35 Myr) age implied by previous isochrone fits to the B binary in the literature. Our MCMC parameter-based grid-search agrees well with our pattern-modelling approach.

Distribution inference, sometimes called property inference, infers statistical properties about a training set from access to a model trained on that data. Distribution inference attacks can pose serious risks when models are trained on private data, but are difficult to distinguish from the intrinsic purpose of statistical machine learning -- namely, to produce models that capture statistical properties about a distribution. Motivated by Yeom et al.'s membership inference framework, we propose a formal definition of distribution inference attacks that is general enough to describe a broad class of attacks distinguishing between possible training distributions. We show how our definition captures previous ratio-based property inference attacks as well as new kinds of attack including revealing the average node degree or clustering coefficient of a training graph. To understand distribution inference risks, we introduce a metric that quantifies observed leakage by relating it to the leakage that would occur if samples from the training distribution were provided directly to the adversary. We report on a series of experiments across a range of different distributions using both novel black-box attacks and improved versions of the state-of-the-art white-box attacks. Our results show that inexpensive attacks are often as effective as expensive meta-classifier attacks, and that there are surprising asymmetries in the effectiveness of attacks. Code is available at https://github.com/iamgroot42/FormEstDistRisks

In astrophysical and cosmological analyses, the increasing quality and volume of astronomical data demand efficient and precise computational tools. This work introduces a novel adaptive algorithm for automatic knots (AutoKnots) allocation in spline interpolation, designed to meet user-defined precision requirements. Unlike traditional methods that rely on manually configured knot distributions with numerous parameters, the proposed technique automatically determines the optimal number and placement of knots based on interpolation error criteria. This simplifies configuration, often requiring only a single parameter. The algorithm progressively improves the interpolation by adaptively sampling the function-to-be-approximated, f(x), in regions where the interpolation error exceeds the desired threshold. All function evaluations contribute directly to the final approximation, ensuring efficiency. While each resampling step involves recomputing the interpolation table, this process is highly optimized and usually computationally negligible compared to the cost of evaluating f(x). We show the algorithm's efficacy through a series of precision tests on different functions. However, the study underscores the necessity for caution when dealing with certain function types, notably those featuring plateaus. To address this challenge, a heuristic enhancement is incorporated, improving accuracy in flat regions. This algorithm has been extensively used and tested over the years. NumCosmo includes a comprehensive set of unit tests that rigorously evaluate the algorithm both directly and indirectly, underscoring its robustness and reliability. As a practical application, we compute the surface mass density Sigma(R) and the average surface mass density Sigma(<R) for Navarro-Frenk-White and Hernquist halo density profiles, which provide analytical benchmarks. (abridged)

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

The correct use of model evaluation, model selection, and algorithm selection techniques is vital in academic machine learning research as well as in many industrial settings. This article reviews different techniques that can be used for each of these three subtasks and discusses the main advantages and disadvantages of each technique with references to theoretical and empirical studies. Further, recommendations are given to encourage best yet feasible practices in research and applications of machine learning. Common methods such as the holdout method for model evaluation and selection are covered, which are not recommended when working with small datasets. Different flavors of the bootstrap technique are introduced for estimating the uncertainty of performance estimates, as an alternative to confidence intervals via normal approximation if bootstrapping is computationally feasible. Common cross-validation techniques such as leave-one-out cross-validation and k-fold cross-validation are reviewed, the bias-variance trade-off for choosing k is discussed, and practical tips for the optimal choice of k are given based on empirical evidence. Different statistical tests for algorithm comparisons are presented, and strategies for dealing with multiple comparisons such as omnibus tests and multiple-comparison corrections are discussed. Finally, alternative methods for algorithm selection, such as the combined F-test 5x2 cross-validation and nested cross-validation, are recommended for comparing machine learning algorithms when datasets are small.

Recently, 3D Gaussian splatting (3D-GS) has achieved great success in reconstructing and rendering real-world scenes. To transfer the high rendering quality to generation tasks, a series of research works attempt to generate 3D-Gaussian assets from text. However, the generated assets have not achieved the same quality as those in reconstruction tasks. We observe that Gaussians tend to grow without control as the generation process may cause indeterminacy. Aiming at highly enhancing the generation quality, we propose a novel framework named GaussianDreamerPro. The main idea is to bind Gaussians to reasonable geometry, which evolves over the whole generation process. Along different stages of our framework, both the geometry and appearance can be enriched progressively. The final output asset is constructed with 3D Gaussians bound to mesh, which shows significantly enhanced details and quality compared with previous methods. Notably, the generated asset can also be seamlessly integrated into downstream manipulation pipelines, e.g. animation, composition, and simulation etc., greatly promoting its potential in wide applications. Demos are available at https://taoranyi.com/gaussiandreamerpro/.

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and tractability. The essential idea, inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, is to systematically and slowly destroy structure in a data distribution through an iterative forward diffusion process. We then learn a reverse diffusion process that restores structure in data, yielding a highly flexible and tractable generative model of the data. This approach allows us to rapidly learn, sample from, and evaluate probabilities in deep generative models with thousands of layers or time steps, as well as to compute conditional and posterior probabilities under the learned model. We additionally release an open source reference implementation of the algorithm.