Daily Papers

Encoder-decoder Large Language Models (LLMs), such as BERT and RoBERTa, require that all categories in an annotation task be sufficiently represented in the training data for optimal performance. However, it is often difficult to find sufficient examples for all categories in a task when building a high-quality training set. In this article, I describe this problem and propose a solution, the synthetic imputation approach. Leveraging a generative LLM (GPT-4o), this approach generates synthetic texts based on careful prompting and five original examples drawn randomly with replacement from the sample. This approach ensures that new synthetic texts are sufficiently different from the original texts to reduce overfitting, but retain the underlying substantive meaning of the examples to maximize out-of-sample performance. With 75 original examples or more, synthetic imputation's performance is on par with a full sample of original texts, and overfitting remains low, predictable and correctable with 50 original samples. The synthetic imputation approach provides a novel role for generative LLMs in research and allows applied researchers to balance their datasets for best performance.

Synthetic data generation for tabular datasets must balance fidelity, efficiency, and versatility to meet the demands of real-world applications. We introduce the Tabular Auto-Regressive Generative Network (TabularARGN), a flexible framework designed to handle mixed-type, multivariate, and sequential datasets. By training on all possible conditional probabilities, TabularARGN supports advanced features such as fairness-aware generation, imputation, and conditional generation on any subset of columns. The framework achieves state-of-the-art synthetic data quality while significantly reducing training and inference times, making it ideal for large-scale datasets with diverse structures. Evaluated across established benchmarks, including realistic datasets with complex relationships, TabularARGN demonstrates its capability to synthesize high-quality data efficiently. By unifying flexibility and performance, this framework paves the way for practical synthetic data generation across industries.

In-context learning (ICL) enables task adaptation at inference time by conditioning on demonstrations rather than updating model parameters. Although recent time-series foundation models incorporate contextual conditioning, retrieval, or example-based prompting, they typically rely on implicit positional structure or task-specific objectives rather than explicit instruction-conditioned input-output demonstrations. We introduce iAmTime, a time-series foundation model trained with instruction-conditioned amortized meta-learning to infer tasks directly from example demonstrations. iAmTime represents each episode as a structured prompt over historical context and future-known variables using specialized semantic tokens that attend to designated time-series regions, exchange information across demonstrations, and inject task information into the query representation. The model combines a Hierarchical Multi-Scope Transformer Encoder, which captures temporal and covariate dynamics while inferring latent task structure from demonstrated input-output mappings, with a Task-Conditioned Patch Decoder, which adapts decoding through expert-based routing. We train iAmTime on large-scale real and synthetic corpora using supervised and self-supervised instruction-conditioned tasks, including forecasting, imputation, reconstruction, classification, anomaly detection, and source de-mixing. Across diverse domains, frequencies, and horizons, iAmTime improves zero-shot adaptation over strong time-series foundation baselines on probabilistic and point forecasting benchmarks, while achieving competitive or superior performance on four non-forecasting tasks.

Smart meter data is the foundation for planning and operating the distribution network. Unfortunately, such data are not always available due to privacy regulations. Meanwhile, the collected data may be corrupted due to sensor or transmission failure, or it may not have sufficient resolution for downstream tasks. A wide range of generative tasks is formulated to address these issues, including synthetic data generation, missing data imputation, and super-resolution. Despite the success of machine learning models on these tasks, dedicated models need to be designed and trained for each task, leading to redundancy and inefficiency. In this paper, by recognizing the powerful modeling capability of flow matching models, we propose a new approach to unify diverse smart meter data generative tasks with a single model trained for conditional generation. The proposed flow matching models are trained to generate challenging, high-dimensional time series data, specifically monthly smart meter data at a 15 min resolution. By viewing different generative tasks as distinct forms of partial data observations and injecting them into the generation process, we unify tasks such as imputation and super-resolution with a single model, eliminating the need for re-training. The data generated by our model not only are consistent with the given observations but also remain realistic, showing better performance against interpolation and other machine learning based baselines dedicated to the tasks.

Recently, the topic of table pre-training has attracted considerable research interest. However, how to employ table pre-training to boost the performance of tabular prediction remains an open challenge. In this paper, we propose TapTap, the first attempt that leverages table pre-training to empower models for tabular prediction. After pre-training on a large corpus of real-world tabular data, TapTap can generate high-quality synthetic tables to support various applications on tabular data, including privacy protection, low resource regime, missing value imputation, and imbalanced classification. Extensive experiments on 12 datasets demonstrate that TapTap outperforms a total of 16 baselines in different scenarios. Meanwhile, it can be easily combined with various backbone models, including LightGBM, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Transformer. Moreover, with the aid of table pre-training, models trained using synthetic data generated by TapTap can even compete with models using the original dataset on half of the experimental datasets, marking a milestone in the development of synthetic tabular data generation. The codes are available at https://github.com/ZhangTP1996/TapTap.

Tabular data is hard to acquire and is subject to missing values. This paper proposes a novel approach to generate and impute mixed-type (continuous and categorical) tabular data using score-based diffusion and conditional flow matching. Contrary to previous work that relies on neural networks as function approximators, we instead utilize XGBoost, a popular Gradient-Boosted Tree (GBT) method. In addition to being elegant, we empirically show on various datasets that our method i) generates highly realistic synthetic data when the training dataset is either clean or tainted by missing data and ii) generates diverse plausible data imputations. Our method often outperforms deep-learning generation methods and can trained in parallel using CPUs without the need for a GPU. To make it easily accessible, we release our code through a Python library on PyPI and an R package on CRAN.

We study the problem of imputing missing values in a dataset, which has important applications in many domains. The key to missing value imputation is to capture the data distribution with incomplete samples and impute the missing values accordingly. In this paper, by leveraging the fact that any two batches of data with missing values come from the same data distribution, we propose to impute the missing values of two batches of samples by transforming them into a latent space through deep invertible functions and matching them distributionally. To learn the transformations and impute the missing values simultaneously, a simple and well-motivated algorithm is proposed. Our algorithm has fewer hyperparameters to fine-tune and generates high-quality imputations regardless of how missing values are generated. Extensive experiments over a large number of datasets and competing benchmark algorithms show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

While data are the primary fuel for machine learning models, they often suffer from missing values, especially when collected in real-world scenarios. However, many off-the-shelf machine learning models, including artificial neural network models, are unable to handle these missing values directly. Therefore, extra data preprocessing and curation steps, such as data imputation, are inevitable before learning and prediction processes. In this study, we propose a simple and intuitive yet effective method for pruning missing values (PROMISSING) during learning and inference steps in neural networks. In this method, there is no need to remove or impute the missing values; instead, the missing values are treated as a new source of information (representing what we do not know). Our experiments on simulated data, several classification and regression benchmarks, and a multi-modal clinical dataset show that PROMISSING results in similar prediction performance compared to various imputation techniques. In addition, our experiments show models trained using PROMISSING techniques are becoming less decisive in their predictions when facing incomplete samples with many unknowns. This finding hopefully advances machine learning models from being pure predicting machines to more realistic thinkers that can also say "I do not know" when facing incomplete sources of information.

Multivariate time series data for real-world applications typically contain a significant amount of missing values. The dominant approach for classification with such missing values is to impute them heuristically with specific values (zero, mean, values of adjacent time-steps) or learnable parameters. However, these simple strategies do not take the data generative process into account, and more importantly, do not effectively capture the uncertainty in prediction due to the multiple possibilities for the missing values. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic framework for classification with multivariate time series data with missing values. Our model consists of two parts; a deep generative model for missing value imputation and a classifier. Extending the existing deep generative models to better capture structures of time-series data, our deep generative model part is trained to impute the missing values in multiple plausible ways, effectively modeling the uncertainty of the imputation. The classifier part takes the time series data along with the imputed missing values and classifies signals, and is trained to capture the predictive uncertainty due to the multiple possibilities of imputations. Importantly, we show that na\"ively combining the generative model and the classifier could result in trivial solutions where the generative model does not produce meaningful imputations. To resolve this, we present a novel regularization technique that can promote the model to produce useful imputation values that help classification. Through extensive experiments on real-world time series data with missing values, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Missing data is a significant problem impacting all domains. State-of-the-art framework for minimizing missing data bias is multiple imputation, for which the choice of an imputation model remains nontrivial. We propose a multiple imputation model based on overcomplete deep denoising autoencoders. Our proposed model is capable of handling different data types, missingness patterns, missingness proportions and distributions. Evaluation on several real life datasets show our proposed model significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art methods under varying conditions while simultaneously improving end of the line analytics.

Missing values are common in real-world time series, and multivariate time series forecasting with missing values (MTSF-M) has become a crucial area of research for ensuring reliable predictions. To address the challenge of missing data, current approaches have developed an imputation-then-prediction framework that uses imputation modules to fill in missing values, followed by forecasting on the imputed data. However, this framework overlooks a critical issue: there is no ground truth for the missing values, making the imputation process susceptible to errors that can degrade prediction accuracy. In this paper, we conduct a systematic empirical study and reveal that imputation without direct supervision can corrupt the underlying data distribution and actively degrade prediction accuracy. To address this, we propose a paradigm shift that moves away from imputation and directly predicts from the partially observed time series. We introduce Consistency-Regularized Information Bottleneck (CRIB), a novel framework built on the Information Bottleneck principle. CRIB combines a unified-variate attention mechanism with a consistency regularization scheme to learn robust representations that filter out noise introduced by missing values while preserving essential predictive signals. Comprehensive experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of CRIB, which predicts accurately even under high missing rates. Our code is available in https://github.com/Muyiiiii/CRIB.

Two different approaches exist to handle missing values for prediction: either imputation, prior to fitting any predictive algorithms, or dedicated methods able to natively incorporate missing values. While imputation is widely (and easily) use, it is unfortunately biased when low-capacity predictors (such as linear models) are applied afterward. However, in practice, naive imputation exhibits good predictive performance. In this paper, we study the impact of imputation in a high-dimensional linear model with MCAR missing data. We prove that zero imputation performs an implicit regularization closely related to the ridge method, often used in high-dimensional problems. Leveraging on this connection, we establish that the imputation bias is controlled by a ridge bias, which vanishes in high dimension. As a predictor, we argue in favor of the averaged SGD strategy, applied to zero-imputed data. We establish an upper bound on its generalization error, highlighting that imputation is benign in the d sqrt n regime. Experiments illustrate our findings.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

We study a missing-value imputation method, termed kNNSampler, that imputes a given unit's missing response by randomly sampling from the observed responses of the k most similar units to the given unit in terms of the observed covariates. This method can sample unknown missing values from their distributions, quantify the uncertainties of missing values, and be readily used for multiple imputation. Unlike popular kNNImputer, which estimates the conditional mean of a missing response given an observed covariate, kNNSampler is theoretically shown to estimate the conditional distribution of a missing response given an observed covariate. Experiments demonstrate its effectiveness in recovering the distribution of missing values. The code for kNNSampler is made publicly available (https://github.com/SAP/knn-sampler).

Visual recognition models are prone to learning spurious correlations induced by a biased training set where certain conditions B (\eg, Indoors) are over-represented in certain classes Y (\eg, Big Dogs). Synthetic data from off-the-shelf large-scale generative models offers a promising direction to mitigate this issue by augmenting underrepresented subgroups in the real dataset. However, by using a mixed distribution of real and synthetic data, we introduce another source of bias due to distributional differences between synthetic and real data (\eg synthetic artifacts). As we will show, prior work's approach for using synthetic data to resolve the model's bias toward B do not correct the model's bias toward the pair (B, G), where G denotes whether the sample is real or synthetic. Thus, the model could simply learn signals based on the pair (B, G) (\eg, Synthetic Indoors) to make predictions about Y (\eg, Big Dogs). To address this issue, we propose a simple, easy-to-implement, two-step training pipeline that we call From Fake to Real (FFR). The first step of FFR pre-trains a model on balanced synthetic data to learn robust representations across subgroups. In the second step, FFR fine-tunes the model on real data using ERM or common loss-based bias mitigation methods. By training on real and synthetic data separately, FFR does not expose the model to the statistical differences between real and synthetic data and thus avoids the issue of bias toward the pair (B, G). Our experiments show that FFR improves worst group accuracy over the state-of-the-art by up to 20\% over three datasets. Code available: https://github.com/mqraitem/From-Fake-to-Real

Anomaly detection is the task of identifying examples that do not behave as expected. Because anomalies are rare and unexpected events, collecting real anomalous examples is often challenging in several applications. In addition, learning an anomaly detector with limited (or no) anomalies often yields poor prediction performance. One option is to employ auxiliary synthetic anomalies to improve the model training. However, synthetic anomalies may be of poor quality: anomalies that are unrealistic or indistinguishable from normal samples may deteriorate the detector's performance. Unfortunately, no existing methods quantify the quality of auxiliary anomalies. We fill in this gap and propose the expected anomaly posterior (EAP), an uncertainty-based score function that measures the quality of auxiliary anomalies by quantifying the total uncertainty of an anomaly detector. Experimentally on 40 benchmark datasets of images and tabular data, we show that EAP outperforms 12 adapted data quality estimators in the majority of cases.

Synthetic data has been proposed as a solution to address the issue of high-quality data scarcity in the training of large language models (LLMs). Studies have shown that synthetic data can effectively improve the performance of LLMs on downstream benchmarks. However, despite its potential benefits, our analysis suggests that there may be inherent flaws in synthetic data. The uniform format of synthetic data can lead to pattern overfitting and cause significant shifts in the output distribution, thereby reducing the model's instruction-following capabilities. Our work delves into these specific flaws associated with question-answer (Q-A) pairs, a prevalent type of synthetic data, and presents a method based on unlearning techniques to mitigate these flaws. The empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, which can reverse the instruction-following issues caused by pattern overfitting without compromising performance on benchmarks at relatively low cost. Our work has yielded key insights into the effective use of synthetic data, aiming to promote more robust and efficient LLM training.

AI scientist systems are increasingly deployed for autonomous research, yet their academic integrity has never been systematically evaluated. We introduce SCIINTEGRITY-BENCH, the first benchmark designed around a dilemmatic evaluation paradigm: each of its 33 scenarios across 11 trap categories is constructed so that honest acknowledgment of failure is the only correct response, while task completion requires misconduct. Across 231 evaluation runs spanning 7 state-of-the-art LLMs, the overall integrity problem rate reaches 34.2%, and no model achieves zero failures. Most strikingly, across missing-data scenarios, all seven models generate synthetic data rather than acknowledging infeasibility, differing only in whether they disclose the substitution. A further prompt ablation study separates two drivers: removing explicit completion pressure sharply reduces undisclosed fabrication from 20.6% to 3.2%, while the underlying synthesis rate remains unchanged, revealing an intrinsic completion bias that persists independent of prompt-level instructions. These findings point to the absence of honest refusal as a trained disposition as the primary driver of observed failures. We release SCIINTEGRITY-BENCH at https://github.com/liuxingtong/Sci-Integrity-Bench.

Synthetic data (SIM) drawn from simulators have emerged as a popular alternative for training models where acquiring annotated real-world images is difficult. However, transferring models trained on synthetic images to real-world applications can be challenging due to appearance disparities. A commonly employed solution to counter this SIM2REAL gap is unsupervised domain adaptation, where models are trained using labeled SIM data and unlabeled REAL data. Mispredictions made by such SIM2REAL adapted models are often associated with miscalibration - stemming from overconfident predictions on real data. In this paper, we introduce AUGCAL, a simple training-time patch for unsupervised adaptation that improves SIM2REAL adapted models by - (1) reducing overall miscalibration, (2) reducing overconfidence in incorrect predictions and (3) improving confidence score reliability by better guiding misclassification detection - all while retaining or improving SIM2REAL performance. Given a base SIM2REAL adaptation algorithm, at training time, AUGCAL involves replacing vanilla SIM images with strongly augmented views (AUG intervention) and additionally optimizing for a training time calibration loss on augmented SIM predictions (CAL intervention). We motivate AUGCAL using a brief analytical justification of how to reduce miscalibration on unlabeled REAL data. Through our experiments, we empirically show the efficacy of AUGCAL across multiple adaptation methods, backbones, tasks and shifts.

Machine learning (ML) has become a ubiquitous tool across various domains of data mining and big data analysis. The efficacy of ML models depends heavily on high-quality datasets, which are often complicated by the presence of missing values. Consequently, the performance and generalization of ML models are at risk in the face of such datasets. This paper aims to examine the nuanced impact of missing values on ML workflows, including their types, causes, and consequences. Our analysis focuses on the challenges posed by missing values, including biased inferences, reduced predictive power, and increased computational burdens. The paper further explores strategies for handling missing values, including imputation techniques and removal strategies, and investigates how missing values affect model evaluation metrics and introduces complexities in cross-validation and model selection. The study employs case studies and real-world examples to illustrate the practical implications of addressing missing values. Finally, the discussion extends to future research directions, emphasizing the need for handling missing values ethically and transparently. The primary goal of this paper is to provide insights into the pervasive impact of missing values on ML models and guide practitioners toward effective strategies for achieving robust and reliable model outcomes.

We present ReMasker, a new method of imputing missing values in tabular data by extending the masked autoencoding framework. Compared with prior work, ReMasker is both simple -- besides the missing values (i.e., naturally masked), we randomly ``re-mask'' another set of values, optimize the autoencoder by reconstructing this re-masked set, and apply the trained model to predict the missing values; and effective -- with extensive evaluation on benchmark datasets, we show that ReMasker performs on par with or outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of both imputation fidelity and utility under various missingness settings, while its performance advantage often increases with the ratio of missing data. We further explore theoretical justification for its effectiveness, showing that ReMasker tends to learn missingness-invariant representations of tabular data. Our findings indicate that masked modeling represents a promising direction for further research on tabular data imputation. The code is publicly available.

Missing values are ubiquitous in multivariate time series (MTS) data, posing significant challenges for accurate analysis and downstream applications. In recent years, deep learning-based methods have successfully handled missing data by leveraging complex temporal dependencies and learned data distributions. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive summary of deep learning approaches for multivariate time series imputation (MTSI) tasks. We propose a novel taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on two key perspectives: imputation uncertainty and neural network architecture. Furthermore, we summarize existing MTSI toolkits with a particular emphasis on the PyPOTS Ecosystem, which provides an integrated and standardized foundation for MTSI research. Finally, we discuss key challenges and future research directions, which give insight for further MTSI research. This survey aims to serve as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners in the field of time series analysis and missing data imputation tasks.A well-maintained MTSI paper and tool list are available at https://github.com/WenjieDu/Awesome_Imputation.

Multi-modal foundation models such as CLIP have showcased impressive zero-shot capabilities. However, their applicability in resource-constrained environments is limited due to their large number of parameters and high inference time. While existing approaches have scaled down the entire CLIP architecture, we focus on training smaller variants of the image encoder, which suffices for efficient zero-shot classification. The use of synthetic data has shown promise in distilling representations from larger teachers, resulting in strong few-shot and linear probe performance. However, we find that this approach surprisingly fails in true zero-shot settings when using contrastive losses. We identify the exploitation of spurious features as being responsible for poor generalization between synthetic and real data. However, by using the image feature-based L2 distillation loss, we mitigate these problems and train students that achieve zero-shot performance which on four domain-specific datasets is on-par with a ViT-B/32 teacher model trained on DataCompXL, while featuring up to 92% fewer parameters.

Chest X-rays (CXR) are the most common medical imaging study and are used to diagnose multiple medical conditions. This study examines the impact of synthetic data supplementation, using diffusion models, on the performance of deep learning (DL) classifiers for CXR analysis. We employed three datasets: CheXpert, MIMIC-CXR, and Emory Chest X-ray, training conditional denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) to generate synthetic frontal radiographs. Our approach ensured that synthetic images mirrored the demographic and pathological traits of the original data. Evaluating the classifiers' performance on internal and external datasets revealed that synthetic data supplementation enhances model accuracy, particularly in detecting less prevalent pathologies. Furthermore, models trained on synthetic data alone approached the performance of those trained on real data. This suggests that synthetic data can potentially compensate for real data shortages in training robust DL models. However, despite promising outcomes, the superiority of real data persists.

We marry ideas from deep neural networks and approximate Bayesian inference to derive a generalised class of deep, directed generative models, endowed with a new algorithm for scalable inference and learning. Our algorithm introduces a recognition model to represent approximate posterior distributions, and that acts as a stochastic encoder of the data. We develop stochastic back-propagation -- rules for back-propagation through stochastic variables -- and use this to develop an algorithm that allows for joint optimisation of the parameters of both the generative and recognition model. We demonstrate on several real-world data sets that the model generates realistic samples, provides accurate imputations of missing data and is a useful tool for high-dimensional data visualisation.

Synthetic data generation offers a promising solution to enhance the usefulness of Electronic Healthcare Records (EHR) by generating realistic de-identified data. However, the existing literature primarily focuses on the quality of synthetic health data, neglecting the crucial aspect of fairness in downstream predictions. Consequently, models trained on synthetic EHR have faced criticism for producing biased outcomes in target tasks. These biases can arise from either spurious correlations between features or the failure of models to accurately represent sub-groups. To address these concerns, we present Bias-transforming Generative Adversarial Networks (Bt-GAN), a GAN-based synthetic data generator specifically designed for the healthcare domain. In order to tackle spurious correlations (i), we propose an information-constrained Data Generation Process that enables the generator to learn a fair deterministic transformation based on a well-defined notion of algorithmic fairness. To overcome the challenge of capturing exact sub-group representations (ii), we incentivize the generator to preserve sub-group densities through score-based weighted sampling. This approach compels the generator to learn from underrepresented regions of the data manifold. We conduct extensive experiments using the MIMIC-III database. Our results demonstrate that Bt-GAN achieves SOTA accuracy while significantly improving fairness and minimizing bias amplification. We also perform an in-depth explainability analysis to provide additional evidence supporting the validity of our study. In conclusion, our research introduces a novel and professional approach to addressing the limitations of synthetic data generation in the healthcare domain. By incorporating fairness considerations and leveraging advanced techniques such as GANs, we pave the way for more reliable and unbiased predictions in healthcare applications.

Gaussian Mixture models (GMMs) are a powerful tool for clustering, classification and density estimation when clustering structures are embedded in the data. The presence of missing values can largely impact the GMMs estimation process, thus handling missing data turns out to be a crucial point in clustering, classification and density estimation. Several techniques have been developed to impute the missing values before model estimation. Among these, multiple imputation is a simple and useful general approach to handle missing data. In this paper we propose two different methods to fit Gaussian mixtures in the presence of missing data. Both methods use a variant of the Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximisation (MCEM) algorithm for data augmentation. Thus, multiple imputations are performed during the E-step, followed by the standard M-step for a given eigen-decomposed component-covariance matrix. We show that the proposed methods outperform the multiple imputation approach, both in terms of clusters identification and density estimation.

We study a capability the dominant paradigm in synthetic tabular data does not provide: exact satisfaction of a declared analytical outcome with no source data. Imitation methods (copulas, GANs, diffusion) learn a real distribution and sample from it, and are judged on fidelity to real data. A large, practical class of needs is different: generating data with no source data ("cold start") that reproduces a declared outcome (a revenue curve, a churn rate, a group share) across a relational schema. Off-the-shelf imitation tools offer no interface for such targets, and no sampler can hit an exact aggregate, because sampling has variance. On a real public dataset, off-the-shelf learned synthesizers trained on that very data miss the declared monthly aggregate by 74 to 86 percent; a per-period steelman cuts the miss to about 19 percent and still cannot reach 0; a closed-form generator reaches exactly 0. We name this task outcome-conformant synthesis, argue its evaluation axis is conformance rather than fidelity, and show the two axes are orthogonal. We contribute: (1) a formal account showing a widely-used family of exact-aggregate generators is exactly conditional-sum sampling of a Gamma population (via Lukacs' characterization), with closed-form exactness, a closed-form marginal CV, and scale-invariance; a controlled experiment maps the boundary, enforcing the exact aggregate costs at most 0.006 in 1-Wasserstein distance to an arbitrary external marginal, the rest being shape-family mismatch; (2) SpecBench, to our knowledge the first benchmark to measure conformance to analytical outcomes for cold-start relational synthesis; and (3) a closed-form, deterministic reference system. Exact aggregation alone is trivial; the contribution is conformance jointly with closed-form marginals, integrity, determinism, and zero source data. We concede fidelity to imitation where real data exists.

Multivariate time series data in practical applications, such as health care, geoscience, and biology, are characterized by a variety of missing values. In time series prediction and other related tasks, it has been noted that missing values and their missing patterns are often correlated with the target labels, a.k.a., informative missingness. There is very limited work on exploiting the missing patterns for effective imputation and improving prediction performance. In this paper, we develop novel deep learning models, namely GRU-D, as one of the early attempts. GRU-D is based on Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), a state-of-the-art recurrent neural network. It takes two representations of missing patterns, i.e., masking and time interval, and effectively incorporates them into a deep model architecture so that it not only captures the long-term temporal dependencies in time series, but also utilizes the missing patterns to achieve better prediction results. Experiments of time series classification tasks on real-world clinical datasets (MIMIC-III, PhysioNet) and synthetic datasets demonstrate that our models achieve state-of-the-art performance and provides useful insights for better understanding and utilization of missing values in time series analysis.

Missing data in time series is a pervasive problem that puts obstacles in the way of advanced analysis. A popular solution is imputation, where the fundamental challenge is to determine what values should be filled in. This paper proposes SAITS, a novel method based on the self-attention mechanism for missing value imputation in multivariate time series. Trained by a joint-optimization approach, SAITS learns missing values from a weighted combination of two diagonally-masked self-attention (DMSA) blocks. DMSA explicitly captures both the temporal dependencies and feature correlations between time steps, which improves imputation accuracy and training speed. Meanwhile, the weighted-combination design enables SAITS to dynamically assign weights to the learned representations from two DMSA blocks according to the attention map and the missingness information. Extensive experiments quantitatively and qualitatively demonstrate that SAITS outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on the time-series imputation task efficiently and reveal SAITS' potential to improve the learning performance of pattern recognition models on incomplete time-series data from the real world. The code is open source on GitHub at https://github.com/WenjieDu/SAITS.

The success of AI models relies on the availability of large, diverse, and high-quality datasets, which can be challenging to obtain due to data scarcity, privacy concerns, and high costs. Synthetic data has emerged as a promising solution by generating artificial data that mimics real-world patterns. This paper provides an overview of synthetic data research, discussing its applications, challenges, and future directions. We present empirical evidence from prior art to demonstrate its effectiveness and highlight the importance of ensuring its factuality, fidelity, and unbiasedness. We emphasize the need for responsible use of synthetic data to build more powerful, inclusive, and trustworthy language models.

Inspired by the principle of deliberate practice in human learning, we propose Deliberate Practice for Synthetic Data Generation (DP), a novel framework that improves sample efficiency through dynamic synthetic data generation. Prior work has shown that scaling synthetic data is inherently challenging, as naively adding new data leads to diminishing returns. To address this, pruning has been identified as a key mechanism for improving scaling, enabling models to focus on the most informative synthetic samples. Rather than generating a large dataset and pruning it afterward, DP efficiently approximates the direct generation of informative samples. We theoretically show how training on challenging, informative examples improves scaling laws and empirically validate that DP achieves better scaling performance with significantly fewer training samples and iterations. On ImageNet-100, DP generates 3.4x fewer samples and requires six times fewer iterations, while on ImageNet-1k, it generates 8x fewer samples with a 30 percent reduction in iterations, all while achieving superior performance compared to prior work.

Faced with an expensive human annotation process, creators of NLP systems increasingly turn to synthetic data generation. While this method shows promise, the extent to which synthetic data can replace human annotation is poorly understood. We investigate the use of synthetic data in Fact Verification (FV) and Question Answering (QA) by studying the effects of incrementally replacing human generated data with synthetic points on eight diverse datasets. Strikingly, replacing up to 90% of the training data only marginally decreases performance, but replacing the final 10% leads to severe declines. We find that models trained on purely synthetic data can be reliably improved by including as few as 125 human generated data points. We show that matching the performance gain of just a little additional human data (only 200 points) requires an order of magnitude more synthetic data and estimate price ratios at which human annotation would be a more cost-effective solution. Our results suggest that even when human annotation at scale is infeasible, there is great value to having a small proportion of the dataset being human generated.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

Time Series Imputation (TSI), which aims to recover missing values in temporal data, remains a fundamental challenge due to the complex and often high-rate missingness in real-world scenarios. Existing models typically optimize the point-wise reconstruction loss, focusing on recovering numerical values (local information). However, we observe that under high missing rates, these models still perform well in the training phase yet produce poor imputations and distorted latent representation distributions (global information) in the inference phase. This reveals a critical optimization dilemma: current objectives lack global guidance, leading models to overfit local noise and fail to capture global information of the data. To address this issue, we propose a new training paradigm, Glocal Information Bottleneck (Glocal-IB). Glocal-IB is model-agnostic and extends the standard IB framework by introducing a Global Alignment loss, derived from a tractable mutual information approximation. This loss aligns the latent representations of masked inputs with those of their originally observed counterparts. It helps the model retain global structure and local details while suppressing noise caused by missing values, giving rise to better generalization under high missingness. Extensive experiments on nine datasets confirm that Glocal-IB leads to consistently improved performance and aligned latent representations under missingness. Our code implementation is available in https://github.com/Muyiiiii/NeurIPS-25-Glocal-IB.

Foundation models mark a profound paradigm shift in time series modeling, with task-specific models being superseded by general-purpose zero-shot models. Yet, current approaches primarily focus on forecasting, while real-world time series are often irregularly and partially observed, requiring models that can jointly forecast, impute missing values, and handle degraded sampling conditions. To address these challenges, we introduce TS-ICL, a novel probabilistic In-Context Learning encoder--regressor Transformer that unifies forecasting and imputation. TS-ICL formulates time series tasks as timestamp-aligned regression and naturally incorporates covariates by training on synthetic dependency structures generated from a novel causal data prior. Empirically, TS-ICL achieves a new state-of-the-art in imputation, while remaining competitive with leading forecasting foundation models across both univariate and covariate-aware benchmarks. It shows particularly strong performance in forecasting with partially observed look-back windows.

How well can AI-derived synthetic research data replicate the responses of human participants? An emerging literature has begun to engage with this question, which carries deep implications for organizational research practice. This article presents a comparison between a human-respondent survey of 420 Silicon Valley coders and developers and synthetic survey data designed to simulate real survey takers generated by five leading Generative AI Large Language Models: ChatGPT Thinking 5 Pro, Claude Sonnet 4.5 Pro plus Claude CoWork 1.123, Gemini Advanced 2.5 Pro, Incredible 1.0, and DeepSeek 3.2. Our findings reveal that while AI agents produced technically plausible results that lean more towards replicability and harmonization than assumed, none were able to capture the counterintuitive insights that made the human survey valuable. Moreover, deviations grouped together for all models, leaving the real data as the outlier. Our key finding is that while leading LLMs are increasingly being used to scale, replicate and replace human survey responses in research, these advances only show an increased capacity to parrot conventional wisdom in harmony with each other rather than revealing novel findings. If synthetic respondents are used in future research, we need more replicable validation protocols and reporting standards for when and where synthetic survey data can be used responsibly, a gap that this paper fills. Our results suggest that synthetic survey responses cannot meaningfully model real human social beliefs within organizations, particularly in contexts lacking previously documented evidence. We conclude that synthetic survey-based research should be cast not as a substitute for rigorous survey methods, but as an increasingly reliable pre- or post-fieldwork instrument for identifying societal assumptions, conventional wisdoms, and other expectations about research populations.

This work empirically evaluates machine learning models on two imbalanced public datasets (KDDCUP99 and Credit Card Fraud 2013). The method includes data preparation, model training, and evaluation, using an 80/20 (train/test) split. Models tested include eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP), Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), Variational Autoencoder (VAE), and Multiple-Objective Generative Adversarial Active Learning (MO-GAAL), with XGB and MLP further combined with Random-Over-Sampling (ROS) and Self-Paced-Ensemble (SPE). Evaluation involves 5-fold cross-validation and imputation techniques (mean, median, and IterativeImputer) with 10, 20, 30, and 50 % missing data. Findings show XGB and MLP outperform generative models. IterativeImputer results are comparable to mean and median, but not recommended for large datasets due to increased complexity and execution time. The code used is publicly available on GitHub (github.com/markushaug/acr-25).

Per-subgroup fairness audits of medical image classifiers face a sample-size problem: minority subgroups in held-out test sets have so few samples that the resulting confidence intervals on per-subgroup performance are wider than the bias the audit is meant to detect. We argue that a demographically-conditioned synthetic generator can do both: mitigate bias on the training side and detect bias on the evaluation side. Working on COVID-19 chest CT classification with an end-to-end fine-tuned Stable Diffusion 2.1 generator, we make two findings. For bias mitigation (training), a demographically-balanced synthetic cohort is most useful as a pretraining prior, not as joint augmentation: with the same fixed data, sequential pretraining followed by fine-tuning substantially outperforms joint augmentation, and the resulting classifier surpasses the full-real baseline at sim100times real-data efficiency. For bias detection (evaluation), across five synthetic minority cohorts and five classifier seeds, the synthetic estimator reproduces the subgroup ranking of a well-powered real oracle (Spearman ρ= 1.00 on MCC and Recall) and gives the more reliable per-cell estimate where the small real test set runs out of samples. The synthetic cohort is therefore most useful in exactly the cells that fairness audits care about, as both a fix for and a measure of subgroup bias.

This paper presents a comprehensive systematic review of generative models (GANs, VAEs, DMs, and LLMs) used to synthesize various medical data types, including imaging (dermoscopic, mammographic, ultrasound, CT, MRI, and X-ray), text, time-series, and tabular data (EHR). Unlike previous narrowly focused reviews, our study encompasses a broad array of medical data modalities and explores various generative models. Our search strategy queries databases such as Scopus, PubMed, and ArXiv, focusing on recent works from January 2021 to November 2023, excluding reviews and perspectives. This period emphasizes recent advancements beyond GANs, which have been extensively covered previously. The survey reveals insights from three key aspects: (1) Synthesis applications and purpose of synthesis, (2) generation techniques, and (3) evaluation methods. It highlights clinically valid synthesis applications, demonstrating the potential of synthetic data to tackle diverse clinical requirements. While conditional models incorporating class labels, segmentation masks and image translations are prevalent, there is a gap in utilizing prior clinical knowledge and patient-specific context, suggesting a need for more personalized synthesis approaches and emphasizing the importance of tailoring generative approaches to the unique characteristics of medical data. Additionally, there is a significant gap in using synthetic data beyond augmentation, such as for validation and evaluation of downstream medical AI models. The survey uncovers that the lack of standardized evaluation methodologies tailored to medical images is a barrier to clinical application, underscoring the need for in-depth evaluation approaches, benchmarking, and comparative studies to promote openness and collaboration.

Synthetic data generated by large language models has become integral to modern NLP training pipelines, from bootstrapping reasoning capabilities to augmenting instruction-following datasets. While recent work demonstrates successful applications maintaining high external data ratios, systematic understanding of how synthetic data proportion affects model behavior across different scales remains limited. This paper presents a controlled empirical study examining model performance, calibration, and output characteristics when trained on varying synthetic-to-external data ratios. Using the Pythia model suite (410M-12B parameters) across five diverse tasks, we evaluate models after one to three training iterations with synthetic data proportions ranging from 0-50\%. Our key findings include: models maintain stable performance with up to 20\% synthetic data, but degradation accelerates beyond 30\%; larger models (6.9B-12B) show greater robustness to synthetic data than smaller models (410M-1.4B); calibration degradation precedes accuracy loss, providing an early warning signal; and task characteristics matter, with reasoning tasks degrading faster than retrieval tasks under synthetic data training. Importantly, we find that current best practices, such as those employed in STaR and Self-Instruct systems that maintain greater than 80\% external data, operate well within safe regimes identified by our experiments. We provide practical guidance for practitioners on synthetic data budgets based on model scale and task requirements, alongside detailed comparison with concurrent work including Shumailov et al.'s model collapse findings.

Synthetic data is emerging as one of the most promising solutions to share individual-level data while safeguarding privacy. While membership inference attacks (MIAs), based on shadow modeling, have become the standard to evaluate the privacy of synthetic data, they currently assume the attacker to have access to an auxiliary dataset sampled from a similar distribution as the training dataset. This is often seen as a very strong assumption in practice, especially as the proposed main use cases for synthetic tabular data (e.g. medical data, financial transactions) are very specific and don't have any reference datasets directly available. We here show how this assumption can be removed, allowing for MIAs to be performed using only the synthetic data. Specifically, we developed three different scenarios: (S1) Black-box access to the generator, (S2) only access to the released synthetic dataset and (S3) a theoretical setup as upper bound for the attack performance using only synthetic data. Our results show that MIAs are still successful, across two real-world datasets and two synthetic data generators. These results show how the strong hypothesis made when auditing synthetic data releases - access to an auxiliary dataset - can be relaxed, making the attacks more realistic in practice.

Data collection is often difficult in critical fields such as medicine, physics, and chemistry. As a result, classification methods usually perform poorly with these small datasets, leading to weak predictive performance. Increasing the training set with additional synthetic data, similar to data augmentation in images, is commonly believed to improve downstream classification performance. However, current tabular generative methods that learn either the joint distribution p(x, y) or the class-conditional distribution p(x mid y) often overfit on small datasets, resulting in poor-quality synthetic data, usually worsening classification performance compared to using real data alone. To solve these challenges, we introduce TabEBM, a novel class-conditional generative method using Energy-Based Models (EBMs). Unlike existing methods that use a shared model to approximate all class-conditional densities, our key innovation is to create distinct EBM generative models for each class, each modelling its class-specific data distribution individually. This approach creates robust energy landscapes, even in ambiguous class distributions. Our experiments show that TabEBM generates synthetic data with higher quality and better statistical fidelity than existing methods. When used for data augmentation, our synthetic data consistently improves the classification performance across diverse datasets of various sizes, especially small ones. Code is available at https://github.com/andreimargeloiu/TabEBM.

Despite much work on advanced deep learning and generative modeling techniques for tabular data generation and imputation, traditional methods have continued to win on imputation benchmarks. We herein present UnmaskingTrees, a simple method for tabular imputation (and generation) employing gradient-boosted decision trees which are used to incrementally unmask individual features. On a benchmark for out-of-the-box performance on 27 small tabular datasets, UnmaskingTrees offers leading performance on imputation; state-of-the-art performance on generation given data with missingness; and competitive performance on vanilla generation given data without missingness. To solve the conditional generation subproblem, we propose a tabular probabilistic prediction method, BaltoBot, which fits a balanced tree of boosted tree classifiers. Unlike older methods, it requires no parametric assumption on the conditional distribution, accommodating features with multimodal distributions; unlike newer diffusion methods, it offers fast sampling, closed-form density estimation, and flexible handling of discrete variables. We finally consider our two approaches as meta-algorithms, demonstrating in-context learning-based generative modeling with TabPFN.

Health-related misinformation is very prevalent and potentially harmful. It is difficult to identify, especially when claims distort or misinterpret scientific findings. We investigate the impact of synthetic data generation and lightweight fine-tuning techniques on the ability of large language models (LLMs) to recognize fallacious arguments using the MISSCI dataset and framework. In this work, we propose MisSynth, a pipeline that applies retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) to produce synthetic fallacy samples, which are then used to fine-tune an LLM model. Our results show substantial accuracy gains with fine-tuned models compared to vanilla baselines. For instance, the LLaMA 3.1 8B fine-tuned model achieved an over 35% F1-score absolute improvement on the MISSCI test split over its vanilla baseline. We demonstrate that introducing synthetic fallacy data to augment limited annotated resources can significantly enhance zero-shot LLM classification performance on real-world scientific misinformation tasks, even with limited computational resources. The code and synthetic dataset are available on https://github.com/mxpoliakov/MisSynth.

The capability gap between open-source and closed-source large language models (LLMs) remains a challenge in text-to-SQL tasks. In this paper, we introduce a synthetic data approach that combines data produced by larger, more powerful models (strong models) with error information data generated by smaller, not well-aligned models (weak models). The method not only enhances the domain generalization of text-to-SQL models but also explores the potential of error data supervision through preference learning. Furthermore, we employ the synthetic data approach for instruction tuning on open-source LLMs, resulting SENSE, a specialized text-to-SQL model. The effectiveness of SENSE is demonstrated through state-of-the-art results on the SPIDER and BIRD benchmarks, bridging the performance gap between open-source models and methods prompted by closed-source models.

Data-driven modeling in real-world regression tasks often suffers from limited training samples, high collection costs, and noisy observations. Inspired by the impact of data augmentation in vision and language, we propose a novel Counterfactual Residual Data Augmentation (CRDA) technique for tabular regression. Our key insight is that once a regressor has modeled the systematic component of the data, the remaining noise can be viewed as an invariant residual that remains stable under small perturbations of carefully selected features. We exploit this residual invariance to generate new, yet realistic, training samples, effectively expanding the dataset without requiring additional real data. Our method is model-agnostic and readily applicable to various types of regressors. In experiments across datasets from a variety of benchmark repositories, on average, CRDA reduces an MLP Regressor's MSE by 22.9% and an XGBoost Regressor's MSE by 6.4%. When compared to existing state-of-the-art data generators and augmentation techniques, CRDA consistently outperforms in MSE reduction. By adding principled counterfactual variations to the training data, our method offers a simple and efficient remedy for noise-prone, small-sample regression settings.

Estimation of causal effects is critical to a range of scientific disciplines. Existing methods for this task either require interventional data, knowledge about the ground truth causal graph, or rely on assumptions such as unconfoundedness, restricting their applicability in real-world settings. In the domain of tabular machine learning, Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have achieved state-of-the-art predictive performance, having been pre-trained on synthetic data to solve tabular prediction problems via in-context learning. To assess whether this can be transferred to the harder problem of causal effect estimation, we pre-train PFNs on synthetic data drawn from a wide variety of causal structures, including interventions, to predict interventional outcomes given observational data. Through extensive experiments on synthetic case studies, we show that our approach allows for the accurate estimation of causal effects without knowledge of the underlying causal graph. We also perform ablation studies that elucidate Do-PFN's scalability and robustness across datasets with a variety of causal characteristics.

Machine learning classification problems are widespread in bioinformatics, but the technical knowledge required to perform model training, optimization, and inference can prevent researchers from utilizing this technology. This article presents an automated tool for machine learning classification problems to simplify the process of training models and producing results while providing informative visualizations and insights into the data. This tool supports both binary and multiclass classification problems, and it provides access to a variety of models and methods. Synthetic data can be generated within the interface to fill missing values, balance class labels, or generate entirely new datasets. It also provides support for feature evaluation and generates explainability scores to indicate which features influence the output the most. We present CLASSify, an open-source tool for simplifying the user experience of solving classification problems without the need for knowledge of machine learning.

The imputation of missing values in time series has many applications in healthcare and finance. While autoregressive models are natural candidates for time series imputation, score-based diffusion models have recently outperformed existing counterparts including autoregressive models in many tasks such as image generation and audio synthesis, and would be promising for time series imputation. In this paper, we propose Conditional Score-based Diffusion models for Imputation (CSDI), a novel time series imputation method that utilizes score-based diffusion models conditioned on observed data. Unlike existing score-based approaches, the conditional diffusion model is explicitly trained for imputation and can exploit correlations between observed values. On healthcare and environmental data, CSDI improves by 40-65% over existing probabilistic imputation methods on popular performance metrics. In addition, deterministic imputation by CSDI reduces the error by 5-20% compared to the state-of-the-art deterministic imputation methods. Furthermore, CSDI can also be applied to time series interpolation and probabilistic forecasting, and is competitive with existing baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/ermongroup/CSDI.

Frontier language models are rarely used in clinical workflows because the realistic, longitudinal benchmarks needed to develop them are scarce. Real electronic health record (EHR) data cannot be openly shared due to privacy, ethics or data use issues and it does not contain verifiable ground truth since the chart records only reflect what clinicians documented. We introduce Synthetic Hospital, an open, fully synthetic, fact-grounded longitudinal EHR benchmark that resolves the open sharing and verifiable ground truth barriers. Built entirely from public medical-education material with no protected health information, it comprises 1,268 longitudinal patients and 5,602 encounters, where every diagnosis, finding, and temporal relation is grounded in standard ontologies (ICD-10-CM, SNOMED CT, LOINC) and with a complete provenance chain back to its source medical education material. Synthetic Hospital is served through a simulated hospital record system that mirrors real EHR infrastructure (standard interoperability APIs, role-based access and function-calling interface). In a blinded review, physicians distinguished its records from real patient charts at near-chance rates (53\%). Across 10 frontier and open models, none approaches ceiling: the best model reconstructs a patient's longitudinal problem list with a severity-weighted F1 of 0.73, level with the mean of seven physicians on a matched subset but well below the best of them (0.89), and misses roughly half of clinically relevant findings when summarizing a chart. Overall, these results highlight that Synthetic Hospital is a difficult and realistic test of clinical AI performance.

Synthetic data is a standard component in training large language models, yet systematic comparisons across design dimensions, including rephrasing strategy, generator model, and source data, remain absent. We conduct extensive controlled experiments, generating over one trillion tokens, to identify critical factors in rephrasing web text into synthetic pretraining data. Our results reveal that structured output formats, such as tables, math problems, FAQs, and tutorials, consistently outperform both curated web baselines and prior synthetic methods. Notably, increasing the size of the generator model beyond 1B parameters provides no additional benefit. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of the original data used for mixing substantially influences performance. By applying our findings, we develop \textsc{FinePhrase}, a 486-billion-token open dataset of rephrased web text. We show that FinePhrase outperforms all existing synthetic data baselines while reducing generation costs by up to 30 times. We provide the dataset, all prompts, and the generation framework to the research community.

Real-world regression often exhibits shortcuts: attributes that are spuriously correlated with continuous targets in training, yet unreliable under deployment shifts; regressing targets using such shortcuts may fail catastrophically at test time. Existing studies on spurious correlations focus primarily on classification, where labels are categorical and groups are naturally defined. However, many real-world tasks require continuous prediction, where hard label boundaries or discrete group-label pairs do not exist. We define Deep Spurious Regression (DSR) as learning from regression data with attribute-label confounding, addressing continuous spurious correlations, and generalizing to all attribute-label combinations at test time. Motivated by the intrinsic difference between classification and regression shortcuts, we propose to exploit the similarity among spurious attributes in both label and feature spaces, thereby accounting for nearby targets and related groups while calibrating both label and learned feature distributions across attributes. Extensive experiments on common real-world DSR datasets that span computer vision, environmental sensing, and large language model (LLM) regression verify the superior performance of our strategies. Our work fills the gap in benchmarks and techniques for studying spurious correlations in continuous prediction.

Generating synthetic data through generative models is gaining interest in the ML community and beyond, promising a future where datasets can be tailored to individual needs. Unfortunately, synthetic data is usually not perfect, resulting in potential errors in downstream tasks. In this work we explore how the generative process affects the downstream ML task. We show that the naive synthetic data approach -- using synthetic data as if it is real -- leads to downstream models and analyses that do not generalize well to real data. As a first step towards better ML in the synthetic data regime, we introduce Deep Generative Ensemble (DGE) -- a framework inspired by Deep Ensembles that aims to implicitly approximate the posterior distribution over the generative process model parameters. DGE improves downstream model training, evaluation, and uncertainty quantification, vastly outperforming the naive approach on average. The largest improvements are achieved for minority classes and low-density regions of the original data, for which the generative uncertainty is largest.

This paper addresses the synthetic-to-real domain gap in object detection, focusing on training a YOLOv11 model to detect a specific object (a soup can) using only synthetic data and domain randomization strategies. The methodology involves extensive experimentation with data augmentation, dataset composition, and model scaling. While synthetic validation metrics were consistently high, they proved to be poor predictors of real-world performance. Consequently, models were also evaluated qualitatively, through visual inspection of predictions, and quantitatively, on a manually labeled real-world test set, to guide development. Final mAP@50 scores were provided by the official Kaggle competition. Key findings indicate that increasing synthetic dataset diversity, specifically by including varied perspectives and complex backgrounds, combined with carefully tuned data augmentation, were crucial in bridging the domain gap. The best performing configuration, a YOLOv11l model trained on an expanded and diverse dataset, achieved a final mAP@50 of 0.910 on the competition's hidden test set. This result demonstrates the potential of a synthetic-only training approach while also highlighting the remaining challenges in fully capturing real-world variability.

Existing private synthetic data generation algorithms are agnostic to downstream tasks. However, end users may have specific requirements that the synthetic data must satisfy. Failure to meet these requirements could significantly reduce the utility of the data for downstream use. We introduce a post-processing technique that improves the utility of the synthetic data with respect to measures selected by the end user, while preserving strong privacy guarantees and dataset quality. Our technique involves resampling from the synthetic data to filter out samples that do not meet the selected utility measures, using an efficient stochastic first-order algorithm to find optimal resampling weights. Through comprehensive numerical experiments, we demonstrate that our approach consistently improves the utility of synthetic data across multiple benchmark datasets and state-of-the-art synthetic data generation algorithms.

*Data Synthesis* is a promising way to train a small model with very little labeled data. One approach for data synthesis is to leverage the rich knowledge from large language models to synthesize pseudo training examples for small models, making it possible to achieve both data and compute efficiency at the same time. However, a key challenge in data synthesis is that the synthesized dataset often suffers from a large distributional discrepancy from the *real task* data distribution. Thus, in this paper, we propose *Synthesis Step by Step* (**S3**), a data synthesis framework that shrinks this distribution gap by iteratively extrapolating the errors made by a small model trained on the synthesized dataset on a small real-world validation dataset using a large language model. Extensive experiments on multiple NLP tasks show that our approach improves the performance of a small model by reducing the gap between the synthetic dataset and the real data, resulting in significant improvement compared to several baselines: 9.48% improvement compared to ZeroGen and 2.73% compared to GoldGen, and at most 15.17% improvement compared to the small model trained on human-annotated data.

Extreme events in air transport, such as severe arrival delays and abnormal air times, cause cascading network disruptions with substantial operational, economic, and safety costs. Such events are rare in historical records, leaving insufficient training signal for machine learning models. Synthetic data augmentation offers a principled solution, but conventional generative models under-represent distributional tails and give no guarantee against operationally infeasible instances, such as a short air time paired with a long flight distance. No existing approach addresses both limitations for mixed-type tabular records. We propose TailBooster, a dual-layer generative framework combining generative modelling with two anomaly detection layers. A statistical layer extracts extremes via the interquartile range, supplying tail-concentrated training signal to dedicated generative models, here a Tabular Variational Autoencoder. A deep learning layer then applies autoencoder-based cleaning, discarding synthetic records that violate the operational envelope learned from historical data. The framework was evaluated on US flight records across five dimensions: diversity, statistical similarity, fidelity, operational validity, and utility, the latter two being the primary improvement targets. Data-driven cleaning markedly improved operational validity, while targeted augmentation enhanced utility for extreme-event prediction. Across six regression algorithms, training on the framework's records reduced Mean Absolute Error by 47-49% on extreme air time and 29-57% on extreme arrival delay prediction relative to conventional synthetic data, with comparable gains when real records were enriched with synthetic extremes. Being fully data-driven and model-agnostic, TailBooster extends to domains where extreme-event prediction is critical and domain-specific rules are unavailable.

Causal inference plays a vital role in diverse domains like epidemiology, healthcare, and economics. De-confounding and counterfactual prediction in observational data has emerged as a prominent concern in causal inference research. While existing models tackle observed confounders, the presence of unobserved confounders remains a significant challenge, distorting causal inference and impacting counterfactual outcome accuracy. To address this, we propose a novel variational learning model of unobserved confounders for counterfactual inference (VLUCI), which generates the posterior distribution of unobserved confounders. VLUCI relaxes the unconfoundedness assumption often overlooked by most causal inference methods. By disentangling observed and unobserved confounders, VLUCI constructs a doubly variational inference model to approximate the distribution of unobserved confounders, which are used for inferring more accurate counterfactual outcomes. Extensive experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate VLUCI's superior performance in inferring unobserved confounders. It is compatible with state-of-the-art counterfactual inference models, significantly improving inference accuracy at both group and individual levels. Additionally, VLUCI provides confidence intervals for counterfactual outcomes, aiding decision-making in risk-sensitive domains. We further clarify the considerations when applying VLUCI to cases where unobserved confounders don't strictly conform to our model assumptions using the public IHDP dataset as an example, highlighting the practical advantages of VLUCI.

Benchmark contamination is diagnosed with n-gram overlap, likelihood-based membership inference, or canary strings, and each needs something usually unavailable: the training corpus, a well-chosen test statistic, or foresight at release. A recent alternative reads it off a linear probe on internal activations. We show the natural way to do this does not work, specify one that survives measurement, then find that the correction making it work carries more variance than the null it is tested against. The protocol reports a zero-sum contrast on the depth profile of probe accuracy, recentred on a level-matched placebo baseline, tested against a label-permutation null, with the reference set twice the size of the suspect set. Each choice replaces a simpler alternative we rejected on measurement. Reporting the level of excess separability rather than its shape makes the false positive rate track the size of the analyst's own control set, 0.03 to 0.99 under a true null. Contrasting against a flat depth profile rejects a true null 0.72 of the time when surface decodability rises with depth, and loses all power when it falls. On real transformers the protocol fails a test the simulations did not pose. The recentring subtracts an estimate, and the permutation null holds it fixed. Re-estimated across split seeds on four audits of contaminated checkpoints, its standard deviation is 1.30 to 1.56 times the null's own in every arm: what is subtracted to remove a bias is more variable than what it corrects. The one nominally significant result, p = 0.0075, becomes 0.0745 once that variance is propagated, and no verdict is issued. The simulations missed this because their surface key is the covariate driving item variation; on real text it is a proxy, and degrading key quality in simulation reproduces it. We add a companion measurement and a widened null. No arm shows contamination.

Proof assistants like Lean have revolutionized mathematical proof verification, ensuring high accuracy and reliability. Although large language models (LLMs) show promise in mathematical reasoning, their advancement in formal theorem proving is hindered by a lack of training data. To address this issue, we introduce an approach to generate extensive Lean 4 proof data derived from high-school and undergraduate-level mathematical competition problems. This approach involves translating natural language problems into formal statements, filtering out low-quality statements, and generating proofs to create synthetic data. After fine-tuning the DeepSeekMath 7B model on this synthetic dataset, which comprises 8 million formal statements with proofs, our model achieved whole-proof generation accuracies of 46.3% with 64 samples and 52% cumulatively on the Lean 4 miniF2F test, surpassing the baseline GPT-4 at 23.0% with 64 samples and a tree search reinforcement learning method at 41.0%. Additionally, our model successfully proved 5 out of 148 problems in the Lean 4 Formalized International Mathematical Olympiad (FIMO) benchmark, while GPT-4 failed to prove any. These results demonstrate the potential of leveraging large-scale synthetic data to enhance theorem-proving capabilities in LLMs. Both the synthetic dataset and the model will be made available to facilitate further research in this promising field.

Predicting missing cell values in tabular data is a fundamental problem in data cleaning. While state-of-the-art reasoning models show great promise in predicting missing values in tables, by reasoning holistically across rows and columns, they are costly to deploy at scale and tend to be overconfident, often generating hallucinated or false-positive predictions. In this paper, we observe that achieving high-precision missing-value prediction in tables requires a distinct combination of three capabilities: (1) world knowledge, (2) text-based reasoning, and (3) code-based reasoning. We systematically explore design choices for combining these capabilities, and propose an Auto-Fill approach that post-trains three specialist small language models (SLMs), each optimized for one capability. We develop a calibrated ensemble mechanism that either dynamically selects the most confident specialist or abstains, ensuring high accuracy. Extensive experiments on 11 benchmarks with 2200 real tables drawn from diverse domains show that Auto-Fill achieves superior accuracy compared to state-of-the-art reasoning models (e.g., o3-pro, Gemini 3 Pro, and DeepSeek R1), while operating at a fraction (less than 1%) of the cost of these frontier models. Our results highlight the effectiveness of specialization and calibrated abstention in the important domain of tabular data. Auto-Fill is publicly available at https://github.com/lyrain2001/auto-fill.

Reliable machine learning and statistical analysis rely on diverse, well-distributed training data. However, real-world datasets are often limited in size and exhibit underrepresentation across key subpopulations, leading to biased predictions and reduced performance, particularly in supervised tasks such as classification. To address these challenges, we propose Conditional Data Synthesis Augmentation (CoDSA), a novel framework that leverages generative models, such as diffusion models, to synthesize high-fidelity data for improving model performance across multimodal domains including tabular, textual, and image data. CoDSA generates synthetic samples that faithfully capture the conditional distributions of the original data, with a focus on under-sampled or high-interest regions. Through transfer learning, CoDSA fine-tunes pre-trained generative models to enhance the realism of synthetic data and increase sample density in sparse areas. This process preserves inter-modal relationships, mitigates data imbalance, improves domain adaptation, and boosts generalization. We also introduce a theoretical framework that quantifies the statistical accuracy improvements enabled by CoDSA as a function of synthetic sample volume and targeted region allocation, providing formal guarantees of its effectiveness. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CoDSA consistently outperforms non-adaptive augmentation strategies and state-of-the-art baselines in both supervised and unsupervised settings.

Achieving robust performance and fairness across diverse patient populations remains a challenge in developing clinically deployable deep learning models for diagnostic imaging. Synthetic data generation has emerged as a promising strategy to address limitations in dataset scale and diversity. We introduce RoentGen-v2, a text-to-image diffusion model for chest radiographs that enables fine-grained control over both radiographic findings and patient demographic attributes, including sex, age, and race/ethnicity. RoentGen-v2 is the first model to generate clinically plausible images with demographic conditioning, facilitating the creation of a large, demographically balanced synthetic dataset comprising over 565,000 images. We use this large synthetic dataset to evaluate optimal training pipelines for downstream disease classification models. In contrast to prior work that combines real and synthetic data naively, we propose an improved training strategy that leverages synthetic data for supervised pretraining, followed by fine-tuning on real data. Through extensive evaluation on over 137,000 chest radiographs from five institutions, we demonstrate that synthetic pretraining consistently improves model performance, generalization to out-of-distribution settings, and fairness across demographic subgroups. Across datasets, synthetic pretraining led to a 6.5% accuracy increase in the performance of downstream classification models, compared to a modest 2.7% increase when naively combining real and synthetic data. We observe this performance improvement simultaneously with the reduction of the underdiagnosis fairness gap by 19.3%. These results highlight the potential of synthetic imaging to advance equitable and generalizable medical deep learning under real-world data constraints. We open source our code, trained models, and synthetic dataset at https://github.com/StanfordMIMI/RoentGen-v2 .

Synthetic data is increasingly used to enable the development and evaluation of AI systems in domains where access to real-world data is restricted. In healthcare, clinical documentation presents particular challenges due to its sensitivity. This work introduces a synthetic clinical notes pipeline and dataset designed to support the development of clinical AI tools while avoiding the privacy risks associated with real patient data. The dataset is generated using a modular pipeline that combines structured patient generation, semi-structured patient journey simulation, and unstructured clinical note generation using large language models. The pipeline is designed to prioritise internal consistency across longitudinal patient records, while also capturing variation in writing style, note structure, and clinical detail. Additional mechanisms, including LLM-based validation and augmentation steps, are used to improve faithfulness, realism, and diversity of the generated notes. We release a dataset of 70 synthetic patients, each associated with 20-50 clinical notes spanning a full hospital journey. The dataset is provided at multiple levels of validation, enabling users to balance realism and scalability depending on their use case. This dataset supports the development, testing, and evaluation of clinical AI systems, including summarisation tools, coding models, and decision support systems, without reliance on real patient data.

Large language models (LLMs) show great potential for synthetic data generation. This work shows that useful data can be synthetically generated even for tasks that cannot be solved directly by the LLM: we show that, for problems with structured outputs, it is possible to prompt an LLM to perform the task in the opposite direction, to generate plausible text for the target structure. Leveraging the asymmetry in task difficulty makes it possible to produce large-scale, high-quality data for complex tasks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach on closed information extraction, where collecting ground-truth data is challenging, and no satisfactory dataset exists to date. We synthetically generate a dataset of 1.8M data points, demonstrate its superior quality compared to existing datasets in a human evaluation and use it to finetune small models (220M and 770M parameters). The models we introduce, SynthIE, outperform existing baselines of comparable size with a substantial gap of 57 and 79 absolute points in micro and macro F1, respectively. Code, data, and models are available at https://github.com/epfl-dlab/SynthIE.

Synthetic data is widely adopted in embedding models to ensure diversity in training data distributions across dimensions such as difficulty, length, and language. However, existing prompt-based synthesis methods struggle to capture domain-specific data distributions, particularly in data-scarce domains, and often overlook fine-grained relevance diversity. In this paper, we present a Chinese short video dataset with 4-level relevance annotations, filling a critical resource void. Further, we propose a semi-supervised synthetic data pipeline where two collaboratively trained models generate domain-adaptive short video data with controllable relevance labels. Our method enhances relevance-level diversity by synthesizing samples for underrepresented intermediate relevance labels, resulting in a more balanced and semantically rich training data set. Extensive offline experiments show that the embedding model trained on our synthesized data outperforms those using data generated based on prompting or vanilla supervised fine-tuning(SFT). Moreover, we demonstrate that incorporating more diverse fine-grained relevance levels in training data enhances the model's sensitivity to subtle semantic distinctions, highlighting the value of fine-grained relevance supervision in embedding learning. In the search enhanced recommendation pipeline of Douyin's dual-column scenario, through online A/B testing, the proposed model increased click-through rate(CTR) by 1.45%, raised the proportion of Strong Relevance Ratio (SRR) by 4.9%, and improved the Image User Penetration Rate (IUPR) by 0.1054%.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful way to adapt foundation models to specialized tasks, but its reliance on large-scale human-labeled data limits broad adoption. We introduce Synthetic Data RL, a simple and general framework that reinforcement fine-tunes models using only synthetic data generated from a task definition. Our method first generates question and answer pairs from the task definition and retrieved documents, then adapts the difficulty of the question based on model solvability, and selects questions using the average pass rate of the model across samples for RL training. On Qwen-2.5-7B, our method achieves a 29.2% absolute improvement over the base model on GSM8K (+2.9 pp vs. instruction-tuned, +6.6 pp vs. Self-Instruct), 8.7% on MATH, 13.1% on GPQA (+7.0 pp vs. SynthLLM), 8.9% on MedQA, 17.7% on CQA (law) and 13.7% on CFA (finance). It surpasses supervised fine-tuning under the same data budget and nearly matches RL with full human data across datasets (e.g., +17.2 pp on GSM8K). Adding 100 human demonstrations improves the performance of GSM8K only by 0.4 pp, showing a limited added value. By reducing human data annotation, Synthetic Data RL enables scalable and efficient RL-based model adaptation. Code and demos are available at https://github.com/gydpku/Data_Synthesis_RL/.

Given only a few observed entries from a low-rank matrix X, matrix completion is the problem of imputing the missing entries, and it formalizes a wide range of real-world settings that involve estimating missing data. However, when there are too few observed entries to complete the matrix, what other aspects of the underlying matrix can be reliably recovered? We study one such problem setting, that of "one-sided" matrix completion, where our goal is to recover the right singular vectors of X, even in the regime where recovering the left singular vectors is impossible, which arises when there are more rows than columns and very few observations. We propose a natural algorithm that involves imputing the missing values of the matrix X^TX and show that even with only two observations per row in X, we can provably recover X^TX as long as we have at least Omega(r^2 d log d) rows, where r is the rank and d is the number of columns. We evaluate our algorithm on one-sided recovery of synthetic data and low-coverage genome sequencing. In these settings, our algorithm substantially outperforms standard matrix completion and a variety of direct factorization methods.

Recommendation systems (RS) aim to provide personalized content, but they face a challenge in unbiased learning due to selection bias, where users only interact with items they prefer. This bias leads to a distorted representation of user preferences, which hinders the accuracy and fairness of recommendations. To address the issue, various methods such as error imputation based, inverse propensity scoring, and doubly robust techniques have been developed. Despite the progress, from the structural causal model perspective, previous debiasing methods in RS assume the independence of the exogenous variables. In this paper, we release this assumption and propose a learning algorithm based on likelihood maximization to learn a prediction model. We first discuss the correlation and difference between unmeasured confounding and our scenario, then we propose a unified method that effectively handles latent exogenous variables. Specifically, our method models the data generation process with latent exogenous variables under mild normality assumptions. We then develop a Monte Carlo algorithm to numerically estimate the likelihood function. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets and three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method. The code is at https://github.com/WallaceSUI/kdd25-background-variable.

Recent text-to-image generation models have shown promising results in generating high-fidelity photo-realistic images. Though the results are astonishing to human eyes, how applicable these generated images are for recognition tasks remains under-explored. In this work, we extensively study whether and how synthetic images generated from state-of-the-art text-to-image generation models can be used for image recognition tasks, and focus on two perspectives: synthetic data for improving classification models in data-scarce settings (i.e. zero-shot and few-shot), and synthetic data for large-scale model pre-training for transfer learning. We showcase the powerfulness and shortcomings of synthetic data from existing generative models, and propose strategies for better applying synthetic data for recognition tasks. Code: https://github.com/CVMI-Lab/SyntheticData.

Deep Generative Models (DGMs) have been shown to be powerful tools for generating tabular data, as they have been increasingly able to capture the complex distributions that characterize them. However, to generate realistic synthetic data, it is often not enough to have a good approximation of their distribution, as it also requires compliance with constraints that encode essential background knowledge on the problem at hand. In this paper, we address this limitation and show how DGMs for tabular data can be transformed into Constrained Deep Generative Models (C-DGMs), whose generated samples are guaranteed to be compliant with the given constraints. This is achieved by automatically parsing the constraints and transforming them into a Constraint Layer (CL) seamlessly integrated with the DGM. Our extensive experimental analysis with various DGMs and tasks reveals that standard DGMs often violate constraints, some exceeding 95% non-compliance, while their corresponding C-DGMs are never non-compliant. Then, we quantitatively demonstrate that, at training time, C-DGMs are able to exploit the background knowledge expressed by the constraints to outperform their standard counterparts with up to 6.5% improvement in utility and detection. Further, we show how our CL does not necessarily need to be integrated at training time, as it can be also used as a guardrail at inference time, still producing some improvements in the overall performance of the models. Finally, we show that our CL does not hinder the sample generation time of the models.

This study leverages synthetic data as a validation set to reduce overfitting and ease the selection of the best model in AI development. While synthetic data have been used for augmenting the training set, we find that synthetic data can also significantly diversify the validation set, offering marked advantages in domains like healthcare, where data are typically limited, sensitive, and from out-domain sources (i.e., hospitals). In this study, we illustrate the effectiveness of synthetic data for early cancer detection in computed tomography (CT) volumes, where synthetic tumors are generated and superimposed onto healthy organs, thereby creating an extensive dataset for rigorous validation. Using synthetic data as validation can improve AI robustness in both in-domain and out-domain test sets. Furthermore, we establish a new continual learning framework that continuously trains AI models on a stream of out-domain data with synthetic tumors. The AI model trained and validated in dynamically expanding synthetic data can consistently outperform models trained and validated exclusively on real-world data. Specifically, the DSC score for liver tumor segmentation improves from 26.7% (95% CI: 22.6%-30.9%) to 34.5% (30.8%-38.2%) when evaluated on an in-domain dataset and from 31.1% (26.0%-36.2%) to 35.4% (32.1%-38.7%) on an out-domain dataset. Importantly, the performance gain is particularly significant in identifying very tiny liver tumors (radius < 5mm) in CT volumes, with Sensitivity improving from 33.1% to 55.4% on an in-domain dataset and 33.9% to 52.3% on an out-domain dataset, justifying the efficacy in early detection of cancer. The application of synthetic data, from both training and validation perspectives, underlines a promising avenue to enhance AI robustness when dealing with data from varying domains.

A common and effective means for improving language model capabilities involves finetuning a ``student'' language model's parameters on generations from a more proficient ``teacher'' model. Termed ``synthetic data'', these generations are often produced before any student finetuning, but some work has considered generating new synthetic samples as training progresses. This paper studies and advocates for the latter case, where data are generated in an iterative, closed-loop fashion that is guided by the current state of the student model. For a fixed budget of generated samples, or a budget in terms of compute spent querying a teacher, we show that this curation of finetuning data affords improved student performance over static generation. Further, while there have been several LLM-specific methods proposed that operate in this regime, we find that simple, inexpensive selection criteria from the active learning literature tend to be most performant. We validate these claims across four mathematical and logical reasoning datasets using four different small language models.

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals' outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.

We introduce a simple and intuitive self-supervision task, Natural Synthetic Anomalies (NSA), for training an end-to-end model for anomaly detection and localization using only normal training data. NSA integrates Poisson image editing to seamlessly blend scaled patches of various sizes from separate images. This creates a wide range of synthetic anomalies which are more similar to natural sub-image irregularities than previous data-augmentation strategies for self-supervised anomaly detection. We evaluate the proposed method using natural and medical images. Our experiments with the MVTec AD dataset show that a model trained to localize NSA anomalies generalizes well to detecting real-world a priori unknown types of manufacturing defects. Our method achieves an overall detection AUROC of 97.2 outperforming all previous methods that learn without the use of additional datasets. Code available at https://github.com/hmsch/natural-synthetic-anomalies.

Generative text-to-image models enable us to synthesize unlimited amounts of images in a controllable manner, spurring many recent efforts to train vision models with synthetic data. However, every synthetic image ultimately originates from the upstream data used to train the generator. What additional value does the intermediate generator provide over directly training on relevant parts of the upstream data? Grounding this question in the setting of image classification,a we compare finetuning on task-relevant, targeted synthetic data generated by Stable Diffusion -- a generative model trained on the LAION-2B dataset -- against finetuning on targeted real images retrieved directly from LAION-2B. We show that while synthetic data can benefit some downstream tasks, it is universally matched or outperformed by real data from our simple retrieval baseline. Our analysis suggests that this underperformance is partially due to generator artifacts and inaccurate task-relevant visual details in the synthetic images. Overall, we argue that retrieval is a critical baseline to consider when training with synthetic data -- a baseline that current methods do not yet surpass. We release code, data, and models at https://github.com/scottgeng00/unmet-promise.

Recent improvements in synthetic data generation make it possible to produce images that are highly photorealistic and indistinguishable from real ones. Furthermore, synthetic generation pipelines have the potential to generate an unlimited number of images. The combination of high photorealism and scale turn the synthetic data into a promising candidate for potentially improving various machine learning (ML) pipelines. Thus far, a large body of research in this field has focused on using synthetic images for training, by augmenting and enlarging training data. In contrast to using synthetic data for training, in this work we explore whether synthetic data can be beneficial for model selection. Considering the task of image classification, we demonstrate that when data is scarce, synthetic data can be used to replace the held out validation set, thus allowing to train on a larger dataset.

We introduce a deep learning image segmentation framework that is extremely robust to missing imaging modalities. Instead of attempting to impute or synthesize missing data, the proposed approach learns, for each modality, an embedding of the input image into a single latent vector space for which arithmetic operations (such as taking the mean) are well defined. Points in that space, which are averaged over modalities available at inference time, can then be further processed to yield the desired segmentation. As such, any combinatorial subset of available modalities can be provided as input, without having to learn a combinatorial number of imputation models. Evaluated on two neurological MRI datasets (brain tumors and MS lesions), the approach yields state-of-the-art segmentation results when provided with all modalities; moreover, its performance degrades remarkably gracefully when modalities are removed, significantly more so than alternative mean-filling or other synthesis approaches.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

The increasing adoption of synthetic data in aviation research offers a promising solution to data scarcity and confidentiality challenges. This study investigates the potential of generative models to produce realistic synthetic flight data and evaluates their quality through a comprehensive four-stage assessment framework. The need for synthetic flight data arises from their potential to serve as an alternative to confidential real-world records and to augment rare events in historical datasets. These enhanced datasets can then be used to train machine learning models that predict critical events, such as flight delays, cancellations, diversions, and turnaround times. Two generative models, Tabular Variational Autoencoder (TVAE) and Gaussian Copula (GC), are adapted to generate synthetic flight information and compared based on their ability to preserve statistical similarity, fidelity, diversity, and predictive utility. Results indicate that while GC achieves higher statistical similarity and fidelity, its computational cost hinders its applicability to large datasets. In contrast, TVAE efficiently handles large datasets and enables scalable synthetic data generation. The findings demonstrate that synthetic data can support flight delay prediction models with accuracy comparable to those trained on real data. These results pave the way for leveraging synthetic flight data to enhance predictive modeling in air transportation.

Data augmentation is becoming essential for improving regression performance in critical applications including manufacturing, climate prediction, and finance. Existing techniques for data augmentation largely focus on classification tasks and do not readily apply to regression tasks. In particular, the recent Mixup techniques for classification have succeeded in improving the model performance, which is reasonable due to the characteristics of the classification task, but has limitations in regression. We show that mixing examples that have large data distances using linear interpolations may have increasingly-negative effects on model performance. Our key idea is thus to limit the distances between examples that are mixed. We propose RegMix, a data augmentation framework for regression that learns for each example how many nearest neighbors it should be mixed with for the best model performance using a validation set. Our experiments conducted both on synthetic and real datasets show that RegMix outperforms state-of-the-art data augmentation baselines applicable to regression.

With the rapid development of large language models (LLMs), the quality of training data has become crucial. Among the various types of training data, mathematical data plays a key role in enabling LLMs to acquire strong reasoning abilities. While high-quality open-source data is important, it is often insufficient for pre-training, necessitating the addition of synthetic math problems. However, synthetic math questions and answers can introduce inaccuracies, which may degrade both the training data and web data. Therefore, an effective method for cleaning synthetic math data is essential. In this paper, we propose the MathClean benchmark to evaluate the effectiveness of math data cleaning models. The MathClean benchmark consists of 2,000 correct questions and 2,000 erroneous questions with additional 2,000 correct and erroneous answers sourced from augmented data based on GSM8K and MATH. Moreover, we also annotate error types for each question or answer, since it can assess whether models can correctly identify the error categories for future improvements. Finally, we present comprehensive evaluations using state-of-the-art (SOTA) models. Our results demonstrate that even strong models like GPT-o1 and DeepSeek-R1 perform poorly on this benchmark, highlighting the utility of MathClean. Our code and data is available at https://github.com/YuYingLi0/MathClean.

We investigate whether synthetic question-answer (QA) data generated by large language models (LLMs) can serve as an effective proxy for human-labeled benchmarks when such data is unavailable. We assess the reliability of synthetic benchmarks across two experiments: one varying retriever parameters while keeping the generator fixed, and another varying the generator with fixed retriever parameters. Across four datasets, of which two open-domain and two proprietary, we find that synthetic benchmarks reliably rank the RAGs varying in terms of retriever configuration, aligning well with human-labeled benchmark baselines. However, they fail to produce consistent RAG rankings when comparing generator architectures. The breakdown possibly arises from a combination of task mismatch between the synthetic and human benchmarks, and stylistic bias favoring certain generators.

Data collected from the real world tends to be biased, unbalanced, and at risk of exposing sensitive and private information. This reality has given rise to the idea of creating synthetic datasets to alleviate risk, bias, harm, and privacy concerns inherent in the real data. This concept relies on Generative AI models to produce unbiased, privacy-preserving synthetic data while being true to the real data. In this new paradigm, how can we tell if this approach delivers on its promises? We present an auditing framework that offers a holistic assessment of synthetic datasets and AI models trained on them, centered around bias and discrimination prevention, fidelity to the real data, utility, robustness, and privacy preservation. We showcase our framework by auditing multiple generative models on diverse use cases, including education, healthcare, banking, human resources, and across different modalities, from tabular, to time-series, to natural language. Our use cases demonstrate the importance of a holistic assessment in order to ensure compliance with socio-technical safeguards that regulators and policymakers are increasingly enforcing. For this purpose, we introduce the trust index that ranks multiple synthetic datasets based on their prescribed safeguards and their desired trade-offs. Moreover, we devise a trust-index-driven model selection and cross-validation procedure via auditing in the training loop that we showcase on a class of transformer models that we dub TrustFormers, across different modalities. This trust-driven model selection allows for controllable trust trade-offs in the resulting synthetic data. We instrument our auditing framework with workflows that connect different stakeholders from model development to audit and certification via a synthetic data auditing report.

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We propose a general deep probabilistic model designed to produce interpretable predictions. The model parameters can be learned via maximum likelihood, and the method can be adapted to any predictor network architecture and any type of prediction problem. Our method is a case of amortized interpretability models, where a neural network is used as a selector to allow for fast interpretation at inference time. Several popular interpretability methods are shown to be particular cases of regularised maximum likelihood for our general model. We propose new datasets with ground truth selection which allow for the evaluation of the features importance map. Using these datasets, we show experimentally that using multiple imputation provides more reasonable interpretations.

Recent advances in computer vision have shown promising results in image generation. Diffusion probabilistic models in particular have generated realistic images from textual input, as demonstrated by DALL-E 2, Imagen and Stable Diffusion. However, their use in medicine, where image data typically comprises three-dimensional volumes, has not been systematically evaluated. Synthetic images may play a crucial role in privacy preserving artificial intelligence and can also be used to augment small datasets. Here we show that diffusion probabilistic models can synthesize high quality medical imaging data, which we show for Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) and Computed Tomography (CT) images. We provide quantitative measurements of their performance through a reader study with two medical experts who rated the quality of the synthesized images in three categories: Realistic image appearance, anatomical correctness and consistency between slices. Furthermore, we demonstrate that synthetic images can be used in a self-supervised pre-training and improve the performance of breast segmentation models when data is scarce (dice score 0.91 vs. 0.95 without vs. with synthetic data). The code is publicly available on GitHub: https://github.com/FirasGit/medicaldiffusion.

The evaluation of machine learning models using human-labeled validation data can be expensive and time-consuming. AI-labeled synthetic data can be used to decrease the number of human annotations required for this purpose in a process called autoevaluation. We suggest efficient and statistically principled algorithms for this purpose that improve sample efficiency while remaining unbiased. These algorithms increase the effective human-labeled sample size by up to 50% on experiments with GPT-4.

Training on model-generated synthetic data is a promising approach for finetuning LLMs, but it remains unclear when it helps or hurts. In this paper, we investigate this question for math reasoning via an empirical study, followed by building a conceptual understanding of our observations. First, we find that while the typical approach of finetuning a model on synthetic correct or positive problem-solution pairs generated by capable models offers modest performance gains, sampling more correct solutions from the finetuned learner itself followed by subsequent fine-tuning on this self-generated data doubles the efficiency of the same synthetic problems. At the same time, training on model-generated positives can amplify various spurious correlations, resulting in flat or even inverse scaling trends as the amount of data increases. Surprisingly, we find that several of these issues can be addressed if we also utilize negative responses, i.e., model-generated responses that are deemed incorrect by a final answer verifier. Crucially, these negatives must be constructed such that the training can appropriately recover the utility or advantage of each intermediate step in the negative response. With this per-step scheme, we are able to attain consistent gains over only positive data, attaining performance similar to amplifying the amount of synthetic data by 8 times. We show that training on per-step negatives can help to unlearn spurious correlations in the positive data, and is equivalent to advantage-weighted reinforcement learning (RL), implying that it inherits robustness benefits of RL over imitating positive data alone.

Text-based causal inference increasingly employs textual data as proxies for unobserved confounders, yet this approach introduces a previously undertheorized source of bias: treatment leakage. Treatment leakage occurs when text intended to capture confounding information also contains signals predictive of treatment status, thereby inducing post-treatment bias in causal estimates. Critically, this problem can arise even when documents precede treatment assignment, as authors may employ future-referencing language that anticipates subsequent interventions. Despite growing recognition of this issue, no systematic methods exist for identifying and mitigating treatment leakage in text-as-confounder applications. This paper addresses this gap through three contributions. First, we provide formal statistical and set-theoretic definitions of treatment leakage that clarify when and why bias occurs. Second, we propose four text distillation methods -- similarity-based passage removal, distant supervision classification, salient feature removal, and iterative nullspace projection -- designed to eliminate treatment-predictive content while preserving confounder information. Third, we validate these methods through simulations using synthetic text and an empirical application examining International Monetary Fund structural adjustment programs and child mortality. Our findings indicate that moderate distillation optimally balances bias reduction against confounder retention, whereas overly stringent approaches degrade estimate precision.

Multi-modal classification leverages complementary information across diverse data sources to enhance predictive performance. However, real-world scenarios subject to operational constraints, such as sensor failures or privacy restrictions, lead to inconsistent modality availability between training and inference times. To handle missing modalities, prior studies have mainly covered bimodal data setups and focused on designing robust fusion processes. Instead, we adopt a multi-modal co-learning framework that prioritizes inter-modal collaboration rather than multi-modal fusion. Specifically, we consider that any subset of modalities may be absent, without assuming predefined missing-modality patterns, an inference scenario we refer to as missing arbitrary modalities. To address this challenge, we introduce two alternative approaches that leverage information at both feature- and decision-level. Experiments on two multi-modal classification benchmarks demonstrate significant robustness gains in various missing modality conditions. The first method shows more robust behavior under minimal missing conditions, where a single modality is absent, whereas the second performs better under extreme missing conditions, where all-but-one modalities are missing. Our code is available at https://github.com/fmenat/Co4Miss.

As the demand for high-quality data in model training grows, researchers and developers are increasingly generating synthetic data to tune and train LLMs. A common assumption about synthetic data is that sampling from instruct-tuned models is sufficient; however, these models struggle to produce diverse outputs-a key requirement for generalization. Despite various prompting methods, in this work we show that achieving meaningful diversity from instruct-tuned models remains challenging. In contrast, we find base models without post-training exhibit greater diversity, but are less capable at instruction following and hence of lower quality. Leveraging this insight, we propose Base-Refine (BARE), a synthetic data generation method that combines the diversity of base models with the quality of instruct-tuned models through a two-stage process. With minimal few-shot examples and curation, BARE generates diverse and high-quality datasets, improving downstream task performance. We show that fine-tuning with as few as 1,000 BARE-generated samples can reach performance comparable to the best similarly sized models on LiveCodeBench tasks. Furthermore, fine-tuning with BARE-generated data achieves a 101% improvement over instruct-only data on GSM8K and a 18.4% improvement over SOTA methods on RAFT.

Recent synthetic 3D human datasets for the face, body, and hands have pushed the limits on photorealism. Face recognition and body pose estimation have achieved state-of-the-art performance using synthetic training data alone, but for the hand, there is still a large synthetic-to-real gap. This paper presents the first systematic study of the synthetic-to-real gap of 3D hand pose estimation. We analyze the gap and identify key components such as the forearm, image frequency statistics, hand pose, and object occlusions. To facilitate our analysis, we propose a data synthesis pipeline to synthesize high-quality data. We demonstrate that synthetic hand data can achieve the same level of accuracy as real data when integrating our identified components, paving the path to use synthetic data alone for hand pose estimation. Code and data are available at: https://github.com/delaprada/HandSynthesis.git.

Scaling generative AI models is bottlenecked by the scarcity of high-quality training data. The ease of synthesizing from a generative model suggests using (unverified) synthetic data to augment a limited corpus of real data for the purpose of fine-tuning in the hope of improving performance. Unfortunately, however, the resulting positive feedback loop leads to model autophagy disorder (MAD, aka model collapse) that results in a rapid degradation in sample quality and/or diversity. In this paper, we introduce Neon (for Negative Extrapolation frOm self-traiNing), a new learning method that turns the degradation from self-training into a powerful signal for self-improvement. Given a base model, Neon first fine-tunes it on its own self-synthesized data but then, counterintuitively, reverses its gradient updates to extrapolate away from the degraded weights. We prove that Neon works because typical inference samplers that favor high-probability regions create a predictable anti-alignment between the synthetic and real data population gradients, which negative extrapolation corrects to better align the model with the true data distribution. Neon is remarkably easy to implement via a simple post-hoc merge that requires no new real data, works effectively with as few as 1k synthetic samples, and typically uses less than 1% additional training compute. We demonstrate Neon's universality across a range of architectures (diffusion, flow matching, autoregressive, and inductive moment matching models) and datasets (ImageNet, CIFAR-10, and FFHQ). In particular, on ImageNet 256x256, Neon elevates the xAR-L model to a new state-of-the-art FID of 1.02 with only 0.36% additional training compute. Code is available at https://github.com/SinaAlemohammad/Neon

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) from right-censored survival data is critical in high-stakes applications such as precision medicine and individualized policy-making. Yet, the survival analysis setting poses unique challenges for HTE estimation due to censoring, unobserved counterfactuals, and complex identification assumptions. Despite recent advances, from Causal Survival Forests to survival meta-learners and outcome imputation approaches, evaluation practices remain fragmented and inconsistent. We introduce SurvHTE-Bench, the first comprehensive benchmark for HTE estimation with censored outcomes. The benchmark spans (i) a modular suite of synthetic datasets with known ground truth, systematically varying causal assumptions and survival dynamics, (ii) semi-synthetic datasets that pair real-world covariates with simulated treatments and outcomes, and (iii) real-world datasets from a twin study (with known ground truth) and from an HIV clinical trial. Across synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world settings, we provide the first rigorous comparison of survival HTE methods under diverse conditions and realistic assumption violations. SurvHTE-Bench establishes a foundation for fair, reproducible, and extensible evaluation of causal survival methods. The data and code of our benchmark are available at: https://github.com/Shahriarnz14/SurvHTE-Bench .

Despite significant progress in applying large language models (LLMs) to the medical domain, several limitations still prevent them from practical applications. Among these are the constraints on model size and the lack of cohort-specific labeled datasets. In this work, we investigated the potential of improving a lightweight LLM, such as Llama 3.1-8B, through fine-tuning with datasets using synthetic labels. Two tasks are jointly trained by combining their respective instruction datasets. When the quality of the task-specific synthetic labels is relatively high (e.g., generated by GPT4- o), Llama 3.1-8B achieves satisfactory performance on the open-ended disease detection task, with a micro F1 score of 0.91. Conversely, when the quality of the task-relevant synthetic labels is relatively low (e.g., from the MIMIC-CXR dataset), fine-tuned Llama 3.1-8B is able to surpass its noisy teacher labels (micro F1 score of 0.67 v.s. 0.63) when calibrated against curated labels, indicating the strong inherent underlying capability of the model. These findings demonstrate the potential of fine-tuning LLMs with synthetic labels, offering a promising direction for future research on LLM specialization in the medical domain.

Recent generative models can now produce visual artifacts with realistic embedded text and layouts, creating a new misinformation threat: synthetic credibility. We introduce SYNCRED-Bench, a benchmark of 600 AI-generated misinformation images balanced across six credible-form categories and seven fine-grained circulation styles, together with FP450, a real-image negative set for measuring false positives. Extensive evaluation shows that existing systems remain unreliable: under a 5% false-positive-rate constraint, 15 MLLMs achieve only 10.5% true positive rate (TPR), open-source AIGC detectors achieve less than 5%, and commercial APIs reach 57.6%. Human annotators also struggled to identify synthetic credibility, reaching only 63% TPR. These findings establish synthetic credibility as a severe and underexplored visual misinformation challenge, and provide a benchmark for developing detectors that reason beyond superficial credibility cues.

Evaluating the quality of synthetic data remains a key challenge for ensuring privacy and utility in data-driven research. In this work, we present an evaluation framework that quantifies how well synthetic data replicates original distributional properties while ensuring privacy. The proposed approach employs a holdout-based benchmarking strategy that facilitates quantitative assessment through low- and high-dimensional distribution comparisons, embedding-based similarity measures, and nearest-neighbor distance metrics. The framework supports various data types and structures, including sequential and contextual information, and enables interpretable quality diagnostics through a set of standardized metrics. These contributions aim to support reproducibility and methodological consistency in benchmarking of synthetic data generation techniques. The code of the framework is available at https://github.com/mostly-ai/mostlyai-qa.

Model collapse in synthetic data indicates that iterative training on self-generated data leads to a gradual decline in performance. With the proliferation of AI models, synthetic data will fundamentally reshape the web data ecosystem. Future GPT-{n} models will inevitably be trained on a blend of synthetic and human-produced data. In this paper, we focus on two questions: what is the impact of synthetic data on language model training, and how to synthesize data without model collapse? We first pre-train language models across different proportions of synthetic data, revealing a negative correlation between the proportion of synthetic data and model performance. We further conduct statistical analysis on synthetic data to uncover distributional shift phenomenon and over-concentration of n-gram features. Inspired by the above findings, we propose token editing on human-produced data to obtain semi-synthetic data. As a proof of concept, we theoretically demonstrate that token-level editing can prevent model collapse, as the test error is constrained by a finite upper bound. We conduct extensive experiments on pre-training from scratch, continual pre-training, and supervised fine-tuning. The results validate our theoretical proof that token-level editing improves data quality and enhances model performance.

Deep learning in computer vision has achieved great success with the price of large-scale labeled training data. However, exhaustive data annotation is impracticable for each task of all domains of interest, due to high labor costs and unguaranteed labeling accuracy. Besides, the uncontrollable data collection process produces non-IID training and test data, where undesired duplication may exist. All these nuisances may hinder the verification of typical theories and exposure to new findings. To circumvent them, an alternative is to generate synthetic data via 3D rendering with domain randomization. We in this work push forward along this line by doing profound and extensive research on bare supervised learning and downstream domain adaptation. Specifically, under the well-controlled, IID data setting enabled by 3D rendering, we systematically verify the typical, important learning insights, e.g., shortcut learning, and discover the new laws of various data regimes and network architectures in generalization. We further investigate the effect of image formation factors on generalization, e.g., object scale, material texture, illumination, camera viewpoint, and background in a 3D scene. Moreover, we use the simulation-to-reality adaptation as a downstream task for comparing the transferability between synthetic and real data when used for pre-training, which demonstrates that synthetic data pre-training is also promising to improve real test results. Lastly, to promote future research, we develop a new large-scale synthetic-to-real benchmark for image classification, termed S2RDA, which provides more significant challenges for transfer from simulation to reality. The code and datasets are available at https://github.com/huitangtang/On_the_Utility_of_Synthetic_Data.

We present the Open Stamped Parts Dataset (OSPD), featuring synthetic and real images of stamped metal sheets for auto manufacturing. The real part images, captured from 7 cameras, consist of 7,980 unlabeled images and 1,680 labeled images. In addition, we have compiled a defect dataset by overlaying synthetically generated masks on 10\% of the holes. The synthetic dataset replicates the real manufacturing environment in terms of lighting and part placement relative to the cameras. The synthetic data includes 7,980 training images, 1,680 validation images and 1,680 test images, each with bounding box and segmentation mask annotations around all holes. 10\% of the holes in the synthetic data mimic defects generated in the real image dataset. We trained a hole-detection model on the synthetic-OSPD, achieving a modified recall score of 67.2\% and a precision of 94.4\% . We anticipate researchers in auto manufacturing use OSPD to advance the state of the art in defect detection of stamped holes in the metal-sheet stamping process. The dataset is available for download at: https://tinyurl.com/hm6xatd7.

Synthetic data is increasingly used to train large language models (LLMs), yet its security implications remain poorly understood. Prior work on subliminal learning suggests that models can inherit behavioral traits from seemingly unrelated training data. In this work, we investigate whether such mechanisms can be exploited to inject targeted social biases into aligned models through semantically benign synthetic data. We construct a pipeline in which a misaligned teacher model generates filtered synthetic datasets across domains such as creative writing and code generation, which are then used to fine-tune aligned student models. Our experiments show that benign-looking synthetic data can act as a covert channel for transmitting targeted biases while largely preserving the student model's general task capabilities. These results reveal a previously underexplored security risk in synthetic data-driven LLM training pipelines and highlight the need for improved safeguards. As one possible step toward this goal, we suggest that log-linearity-based scoring may provide a useful signal for screening seemingly benign synthetic data.

Synthetic simulation data and real-world human data provide scalable alternatives to circumvent the prohibitive costs of robot data collection. However, these sources suffer from the sim-to-real visual gap and the human-to-robot embodiment gap, respectively, which limits the policy's generalization to real-world scenarios. In this work, we identify a natural yet underexplored complementarity between these sources: simulation offers the robot action that human data lacks, while human data provides the real-world observation that simulation struggles to render. Motivated by this insight, we present SimHum, a co-training framework to simultaneously extract kinematic prior from simulated robot actions and visual prior from real-world human observations. Based on the two complementary priors, we achieve data-efficient and generalizable robotic manipulation in real-world tasks. Empirically, SimHum outperforms the baseline by up to 40% under the same data collection budget, and achieves a 62.5% OOD success with only 80 real data, outperforming the real only baseline by 7.1times. Videos and additional information can be found at https://kaipengfang.github.io/sim-and-human{project website}.

In order to fully harness the potential of machine learning, it is crucial to establish a system that renders the field more accessible and less daunting for individuals who may not possess a comprehensive understanding of its intricacies. The paper describes the design of a system that integrates AutoML, XAI, and synthetic data generation to provide a great UX design for users. The system allows users to navigate and harness the power of machine learning while abstracting its complexities and providing high usability. The paper proposes two novel classifiers, Logistic Regression Forest and Support Vector Tree, for enhanced model performance, achieving 96\% accuracy on a diabetes dataset and 93\% on a survey dataset. The paper also introduces a model-dependent local interpreter called MEDLEY and evaluates its interpretation against LIME, Greedy, and Parzen. Additionally, the paper introduces LLM-based synthetic data generation, library-based data generation, and enhancing the original dataset with GAN. The findings on synthetic data suggest that enhancing the original dataset with GAN is the most reliable way to generate synthetic data, as evidenced by KS tests, standard deviation, and feature importance. The authors also found that GAN works best for quantitative datasets.

Finetuning can cause spurious correlations to arise between non-essential features and the target labels, but benchmarks to study these effects involve contrived settings and narrow tasks. In contrast, we consider spurious correlations in multi-modal Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) pretrained on extensive and diverse datasets without explicit task supervision. We develop a benchmark by sourcing GPT-4o errors on real-world visual-question-answering (VQA) benchmarks, then curating a subset through LVLM-human annotation and synthetic counterfactual evaluation to identify errors caused by spurious correlations. This process yields SpuriVerse, a novel benchmark comprised of 124 distinct types of spurious correlations extracted from real-world datasets, each containing 1 realistic and 10 synthetic VQA samples for a total of 1364 multiple choice questions. We evaluate 15 open and closed-source LVLMs on SpuriVerse, finding that even state-of-the-art closed-source models struggle significantly, achieving at best only 37.1% accuracy. Fine-tuning on synthetic examples that emphasize the spurious correlation improves performance to 78.40%, suggesting that training on diverse spurious patterns generalizes to unseen situations: models appear to learn to avoid "shortcuts" and attend to the overall image context.

Factual consistency evaluation is often conducted using Natural Language Inference (NLI) models, yet these models exhibit limited success in evaluating summaries. Previous work improved such models with synthetic training data. However, the data is typically based on perturbed human-written summaries, which often differ in their characteristics from real model-generated summaries and have limited coverage of possible factual errors. Alternatively, large language models (LLMs) have recently shown promising results in directly evaluating generative tasks, but are too computationally expensive for practical use. Motivated by these limitations, we introduce TrueTeacher, a method for generating synthetic data by annotating diverse model-generated summaries using a LLM. Unlike prior work, TrueTeacher does not rely on human-written summaries, and is multilingual by nature. Experiments on the TRUE benchmark show that a student model trained using our data, substantially outperforms both the state-of-the-art model with similar capacity, and the LLM teacher. In a systematic study, we compare TrueTeacher to existing synthetic data generation methods and demonstrate its superiority and robustness to domain-shift. Using the the mFACE dataset, we also show that our method generalizes to multilingual scenarios. Finally, we release a large-scale synthetic dataset with 1.4M examples generated using TrueTeacher.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) advancement is heavily dependent on access to large-scale, high-quality training data. However, in specialized domains such as healthcare, data acquisition faces significant constraints due to privacy regulations, ethical considerations, and limited availability. While synthetic data generation offers a promising solution, conventional approaches typically require substantial real data for training generative models. The emergence of large-scale prompt-based models presents new opportunities for synthetic data generation without direct access to protected data. However, crafting effective prompts for domain-specific data generation remains challenging, and manual prompt engineering proves insufficient for achieving output with sufficient precision and authenticity. We review recent developments in automatic prompt optimization, following PRISMA guidelines. We analyze six peer-reviewed studies published between 2020 and 2024 that focus on automatic data-free prompt optimization methods. Our analysis reveals three approaches: feedback-driven, error-based, and control-theoretic. Although all approaches demonstrate promising capabilities in prompt refinement and adaptation, our findings suggest the need for an integrated framework that combines complementary optimization techniques to enhance synthetic data generation while minimizing manual intervention. We propose future research directions toward developing robust, iterative prompt optimization frameworks capable of improving the quality of synthetic data. This advancement can be particularly crucial for sensitive fields and in specialized domains where data access is restricted, potentially transforming how we approach synthetic data generation for AI development.

Access to real-world medical data is often restricted due to privacy regulations, posing a significant barrier to the advancement of healthcare research. Synthetic data offers a promising alternative; however, generating realistic, clinically valid, and privacy-conscious records remains a major challenge. Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) offer new opportunities for structured data generation; however, existing approaches frequently lack systematic prompting strategies and comprehensive, multi-dimensional evaluation frameworks. In this paper, we present SynLLM, a modular framework for generating high-quality synthetic medical tabular data using 20 state-of-the-art open-source LLMs, including LLaMA, Mistral, and GPT variants, guided by structured prompts. We propose four distinct prompt types, ranging from example-driven to rule-based constraints, that encode schema, metadata, and domain knowledge to control generation without model fine-tuning. Our framework features a comprehensive evaluation pipeline that rigorously assesses generated data across statistical fidelity, clinical consistency, and privacy preservation. We evaluate SynLLM across three public medical datasets, including Diabetes, Cirrhosis, and Stroke, using 20 open-source LLMs. Our results show that prompt engineering significantly impacts data quality and privacy risk, with rule-based prompts achieving the best privacy-quality balance. SynLLM establishes that, when guided by well-designed prompts and evaluated with robust, multi-metric criteria, LLMs can generate synthetic medical data that is both clinically plausible and privacy-aware, paving the way for safer and more effective data sharing in healthcare research.

Causal generative models provide a principled framework for answering observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries from observational data. However, many deep causal models rely on highly expressive architectures with opaque mechanisms, limiting auditability in high-stakes domains. We propose KaCGM, a causal generative model for mixed-type tabular data where each structural equation is parameterized by a Kolmogorov--Arnold Network (KAN). This decomposition enables direct inspection of learned causal mechanisms, including symbolic approximations and visualization of parent--child relationships, while preserving query-agnostic generative semantics. We introduce a validation pipeline based on distributional matching and independence diagnostics of inferred exogenous variables, allowing assessment using observational data alone. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks show competitive performance against state-of-the-art methods. A real-world cardiovascular case study further demonstrates the extraction of simplified structural equations and interpretable causal effects. These results suggest that expressive causal generative modeling and functional transparency can be achieved jointly, supporting trustworthy deployment in tabular decision-making settings. Code: https://github.com/aalmodovares/kacgm

Objective: To enhance automated de-identification of radiology reports by scaling transformer-based models through extensive training datasets and benchmarking performance against commercial cloud vendor systems for protected health information (PHI) detection. Materials and Methods: In this retrospective study, we built upon a state-of-the-art, transformer-based, PHI de-identification pipeline by fine-tuning on two large annotated radiology corpora from Stanford University, encompassing chest X-ray, chest CT, abdomen/pelvis CT, and brain MR reports and introducing an additional PHI category (AGE) into the architecture. Model performance was evaluated on test sets from Stanford and the University of Pennsylvania (Penn) for token-level PHI detection. We further assessed (1) the stability of synthetic PHI generation using a "hide-in-plain-sight" method and (2) performance against commercial systems. Precision, recall, and F1 scores were computed across all PHI categories. Results: Our model achieved overall F1 scores of 0.973 on the Penn dataset and 0.996 on the Stanford dataset, outperforming or maintaining the previous state-of-the-art model performance. Synthetic PHI evaluation showed consistent detectability (overall F1: 0.959 [0.958-0.960]) across 50 independently de-identified Penn datasets. Our model outperformed all vendor systems on synthetic Penn reports (overall F1: 0.960 vs. 0.632-0.754). Discussion: Large-scale, multimodal training improved cross-institutional generalization and robustness. Synthetic PHI generation preserved data utility while ensuring privacy. Conclusion: A transformer-based de-identification model trained on diverse radiology datasets outperforms prior academic and commercial systems in PHI detection and establishes a new benchmark for secure clinical text processing.

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect or CATE. Our method focuses on an intermediate layer in a neural network trained to predict the outcome from the features. In contrast to previous approaches that encourage the distribution of representations to be treatment-invariant, we leverage a genetic algorithm that optimizes over representations useful for predicting the outcome to select those less useful for predicting the treatment. This allows us to retain information within the features useful for predicting outcome even if that information may be related to treatment assignment. We validate our method on synthetic examples and illustrate its use on a real life dataset.

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series data is of paramount importance for ensuring the efficient operation of large-scale systems across diverse domains. However, accurately detecting anomalies in such data poses significant challenges. Existing approaches, including forecasting and reconstruction-based methods, struggle to address these challenges effectively. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel anomaly detection framework named ImDiffusion, which combines time series imputation and diffusion models to achieve accurate and robust anomaly detection. The imputation-based approach employed by ImDiffusion leverages the information from neighboring values in the time series, enabling precise modeling of temporal and inter-correlated dependencies, reducing uncertainty in the data, thereby enhancing the robustness of the anomaly detection process. ImDiffusion further leverages diffusion models as time series imputers to accurately capturing complex dependencies. We leverage the step-by-step denoised outputs generated during the inference process to serve as valuable signals for anomaly prediction, resulting in improved accuracy and robustness of the detection process. We evaluate the performance of ImDiffusion via extensive experiments on benchmark datasets. The results demonstrate that our proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in terms of detection accuracy and timeliness. ImDiffusion is further integrated into the real production system in Microsoft and observe a remarkable 11.4% increase in detection F1 score compared to the legacy approach. To the best of our knowledge, ImDiffusion represents a pioneering approach that combines imputation-based techniques with time series anomaly detection, while introducing the novel use of diffusion models to the field.

The performance of machine learning models depends heavily on training data. The scarcity of large-scale, well-annotated datasets poses significant challenges in creating robust models. To address this, synthetic data generated through simulations and generative models has emerged as a promising solution, enhancing dataset diversity and improving the performance, reliability, and resilience of models. However, evaluating the quality of this generated data requires an effective metric. This paper introduces the Synthetic Dataset Quality Metric (SDQM) to assess data quality for object detection tasks without requiring model training to converge. This metric enables more efficient generation and selection of synthetic datasets, addressing a key challenge in resource-constrained object detection tasks. In our experiments, SDQM demonstrated a strong correlation with the mean Average Precision (mAP) scores of YOLOv11, a leading object detection model, while previous metrics only exhibited moderate or weak correlations. Additionally, it provides actionable insights for improving dataset quality, minimizing the need for costly iterative training. This scalable and efficient metric sets a new standard for evaluating synthetic data. The code for SDQM is available at https://github.com/ayushzenith/SDQM

Large Language models (LLMs), while powerful, exhibit harmful social biases. Debiasing is often challenging due to computational costs, data constraints, and potential degradation of multi-task language capabilities. This work introduces a novel approach utilizing ChatGPT to generate synthetic training data, aiming to enhance the debiasing of LLMs. We propose two strategies: Targeted Prompting, which provides effective debiasing for known biases but necessitates prior specification of bias in question; and General Prompting, which, while slightly less effective, offers debiasing across various categories. We leverage resource-efficient LLM debiasing using adapter tuning and compare the effectiveness of our synthetic data to existing debiasing datasets. Our results reveal that: (1) ChatGPT can efficiently produce high-quality training data for debiasing other LLMs; (2) data produced via our approach surpasses existing datasets in debiasing performance while also preserving internal knowledge of a pre-trained LLM; and (3) synthetic data exhibits generalizability across categories, effectively mitigating various biases, including intersectional ones. These findings underscore the potential of synthetic data in advancing the fairness of LLMs with minimal retraining cost.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have improved their performance on coding benchmarks. However, improvement is plateauing due to the exhaustion of readily available high-quality data. Prior work has shown the potential of synthetic self-instruct data, but naively training on a model's own outputs can cause error accumulation, especially in coding tasks, where generalization may collapse due to overly simple or erroneous training data, highlighting the need for rigorous quality checks on synthetic data. In this work, we explore an effective approach whereby the model itself verifies the correctness of its own data. We thus propose Sol-Ver, a self-play solver-verifier framework that jointly improves a single model's code and test generation capacity. By iteratively refining code (LLM-as-a-solver) and tests (LLM-as-a-verifier) together, we boost both capabilities without relying on human annotations or larger teacher models. Experiments with the Llama 3.1 8B model demonstrate substantial performance enhancements, achieving average relative improvements of 19.63% in code generation and 17.49% in test generation on MBPP and LiveCodeBench.

Synthetic data has the potential to improve the performance, training efficiency, and privacy of real training examples. Nevertheless, existing approaches for synthetic text generation are mostly heuristics and cannot generate human-readable text without compromising the privacy of real data, or provide performance guarantees for training Large Language Models (LLMs). In this work, we propose the first theoretically rigorous approach for generating synthetic human-readable text that provides convergence, performance, and privacy guarantees for fine-tuning LLMs on a target task. To do so, we leverage Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) that iteratively optimizes the embeddings of synthetic examples to match the noisy gradient of the target training or validation data, and maps them to a sequence of text tokens with low perplexity. In doing so, the generated synthetic text guarantees convergence of the model to a close neighborhood of the solution obtained by fine-tuning on real data and preserves their privacy. Experiments on various classification tasks confirm the effectiveness of our proposed approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/BigML-CS-UCLA/GRADMM.

Synthetic data has been increasingly used to train frontier generative models. However, recent studies raise key concerns that iteratively retraining a generative model on its self-generated synthetic data may keep deteriorating model performance, a phenomenon often coined model collapse. In this paper, we investigate ways to modify the synthetic retraining process to avoid model collapse, and even possibly help reverse the trend from collapse to improvement. Our key finding is that by injecting information through an external synthetic data verifier, whether a human or a better model, synthetic retraining will not cause model collapse. Specifically, we situate our theoretical analysis in the fundamental linear regression setting, showing that verifier-guided retraining can yield near-term improvements, but ultimately drives the parameter estimate to the verifier's "knowledge center" in the long run. Our theory further predicts that, unless the verifier is perfectly reliable, these early gains will plateau and may even reverse. Indeed, our experiments across linear regression, Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) trained on MNIST, and fining-tuning SmolLM2-135M on the XSUM task confirm these theoretical insights.

In an era of model and data proliferation in machine learning/AI especially marked by the rapid advancement of open-sourced technologies, there arises a critical need for standardized consistent documentation. Our work addresses the information incompleteness in current human-generated model and data cards. We propose an automated generation approach using Large Language Models (LLMs). Our key contributions include the establishment of CardBench, a comprehensive dataset aggregated from over 4.8k model cards and 1.4k data cards, coupled with the development of the CardGen pipeline comprising a two-step retrieval process. Our approach exhibits enhanced completeness, objectivity, and faithfulness in generated model and data cards, a significant step in responsible AI documentation practices ensuring better accountability and traceability.