Daily Papers

The neural semi-Markov Conditional Random Field (semi-CRF) framework has demonstrated promise for event-based piano transcription. In this framework, all events (notes or pedals) are represented as closed time intervals tied to specific event types. The neural semi-CRF approach requires an interval scoring matrix that assigns a score for every candidate interval. However, designing an efficient and expressive architecture for scoring intervals is not trivial. This paper introduces a simple method for scoring intervals using scaled inner product operations that resemble how attention scoring is done in transformers. We show theoretically that, due to the special structure from encoding the non-overlapping intervals, under a mild condition, the inner product operations are expressive enough to represent an ideal scoring matrix that can yield the correct transcription result. We then demonstrate that an encoder-only structured non-hierarchical transformer backbone, operating only on a low-time-resolution feature map, is capable of transcribing piano notes and pedals with high accuracy and time precision. The experiment shows that our approach achieves the new state-of-the-art performance across all subtasks in terms of the F1 measure on the Maestro dataset.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in various NLP tasks, yet they still face significant challenges in reasoning and arithmetic. Temporal reasoning, a critical component of natural language understanding, has raised increasing research attention. However, comprehensive testing of Allen's interval relations (e.g., before, after, during) -- a fundamental framework for temporal relationships -- remains underexplored. To fill this gap, we present ChronoSense, a new benchmark for evaluating LLMs' temporal understanding. It includes 16 tasks, focusing on identifying the Allen relation between two temporal events and temporal arithmetic, using both abstract events and real-world data from Wikidata. We assess the performance of seven recent LLMs using this benchmark and the results indicate that models handle Allen relations, even symmetrical ones, quite differently. Moreover, the findings suggest that the models may rely on memorization to answer time-related questions. Overall, the models' low performance highlights the need for improved temporal understanding in LLMs and ChronoSense offers a robust framework for future research in this area. Our dataset and the source code are available at https://github.com/duyguislakoglu/chronosense.

Diverse actions give rise to rich audio-visual signals in long videos. Recent works showcase that the two modalities of audio and video exhibit different temporal extents of events and distinct labels. We address the interplay between the two modalities in long videos by explicitly modelling the temporal extents of audio and visual events. We propose the Time Interval Machine (TIM) where a modality-specific time interval poses as a query to a transformer encoder that ingests a long video input. The encoder then attends to the specified interval, as well as the surrounding context in both modalities, in order to recognise the ongoing action. We test TIM on three long audio-visual video datasets: EPIC-KITCHENS, Perception Test, and AVE, reporting state-of-the-art (SOTA) for recognition. On EPIC-KITCHENS, we beat previous SOTA that utilises LLMs and significantly larger pre-training by 2.9% top-1 action recognition accuracy. Additionally, we show that TIM can be adapted for action detection, using dense multi-scale interval queries, outperforming SOTA on EPIC-KITCHENS-100 for most metrics, and showing strong performance on the Perception Test. Our ablations show the critical role of integrating the two modalities and modelling their time intervals in achieving this performance. Code and models at: https://github.com/JacobChalk/TIM

Spoken Question Answering (SQA) is to find the answer from a spoken document given a question, which is crucial for personal assistants when replying to the queries from the users. Existing SQA methods all rely on Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) transcripts. Not only does ASR need to be trained with massive annotated data that are time and cost-prohibitive to collect for low-resourced languages, but more importantly, very often the answers to the questions include name entities or out-of-vocabulary words that cannot be recognized correctly. Also, ASR aims to minimize recognition errors equally over all words, including many function words irrelevant to the SQA task. Therefore, SQA without ASR transcripts (textless) is always highly desired, although known to be very difficult. This work proposes Discrete Spoken Unit Adaptive Learning (DUAL), leveraging unlabeled data for pre-training and fine-tuned by the SQA downstream task. The time intervals of spoken answers can be directly predicted from spoken documents. We also release a new SQA benchmark corpus, NMSQA, for data with more realistic scenarios. We empirically showed that DUAL yields results comparable to those obtained by cascading ASR and text QA model and robust to real-world data. Our code and model will be open-sourced.

Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) have been widely used for event sequence modeling, but they often struggle to incorporate rich textual event descriptions effectively. Conversely, while Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown remarkable capabilities in processing textual data, they lack mechanisms for handling temporal dynamics. To bridge this gap, we introduce Language-TPP, a unified framework that integrates TPPs with LLMs for enhanced event sequence modeling. Language-TPP introduces a novel temporal encoding mechanism that converts continuous time intervals into specialized byte-tokens, enabling seamless integration with standard LLM architectures. This approach allows Language-TPP to achieve state-of-the-art performance across multiple TPP tasks, including event time prediction, type prediction, and intensity estimation, on five datasets. Additionally, we demonstrate that incorporating temporal information significantly improves the quality of generated event descriptions.

We present Bit Diffusion: a simple and generic approach for generating discrete data with continuous state and continuous time diffusion models. The main idea behind our approach is to first represent the discrete data as binary bits, and then train a continuous diffusion model to model these bits as real numbers which we call analog bits. To generate samples, the model first generates the analog bits, which are then thresholded to obtain the bits that represent the discrete variables. We further propose two simple techniques, namely Self-Conditioning and Asymmetric Time Intervals, which lead to a significant improvement in sample quality. Despite its simplicity, the proposed approach can achieve strong performance in both discrete image generation and image captioning tasks. For discrete image generation, we significantly improve previous state-of-the-art on both CIFAR-10 (which has 3K discrete 8-bit tokens) and ImageNet-64x64 (which has 12K discrete 8-bit tokens), outperforming the best autoregressive model in both sample quality (measured by FID) and efficiency. For image captioning on MS-COCO dataset, our approach achieves competitive results compared to autoregressive models.

The oceans are a source of an impressive mixture of complex data that could be used to uncover relationships yet to be discovered. Such data comes from the oceans and their surface, such as Automatic Identification System (AIS) messages used for tracking vessels' trajectories. AIS messages are transmitted over radio or satellite at ideally periodic time intervals but vary irregularly over time. As such, this paper aims to model the AIS message transmission behavior through neural networks for forecasting upcoming AIS messages' content from multiple vessels, particularly in a simultaneous approach despite messages' temporal irregularities as outliers. We present a set of experiments comprising multiple algorithms for forecasting tasks with horizon sizes of varying lengths. Deep learning models (e.g., neural networks) revealed themselves to adequately preserve vessels' spatial awareness regardless of temporal irregularity. We show how convolutional layers, feed-forward networks, and recurrent neural networks can improve such tasks by working together. Experimenting with short, medium, and large-sized sequences of messages, our model achieved 36/37/38% of the Relative Percentage Difference - the lower, the better, whereas we observed 92/45/96% on the Elman's RNN, 51/52/40% on the GRU, and 129/98/61% on the LSTM. These results support our model as a driver for improving the prediction of vessel routes when analyzing multiple vessels of diverging types simultaneously under temporally noise data.

We introduce Constellation, a dataset of 13K images suitable for research on detection of objects in dense urban streetscapes observed from high-elevation cameras, collected for a variety of temporal conditions. The dataset addresses the need for curated data to explore problems in small object detection exemplified by the limited pixel footprint of pedestrians observed tens of meters from above. It enables the testing of object detection models for variations in lighting, building shadows, weather, and scene dynamics. We evaluate contemporary object detection architectures on the dataset, observing that state-of-the-art methods have lower performance in detecting small pedestrians compared to vehicles, corresponding to a 10% difference in average precision (AP). Using structurally similar datasets for pretraining the models results in an increase of 1.8% mean AP (mAP). We further find that incorporating domain-specific data augmentations helps improve model performance. Using pseudo-labeled data, obtained from inference outcomes of the best-performing models, improves the performance of the models. Finally, comparing the models trained using the data collected in two different time intervals, we find a performance drift in models due to the changes in intersection conditions over time. The best-performing model achieves a pedestrian AP of 92.0% with 11.5 ms inference time on NVIDIA A100 GPUs, and an mAP of 95.4%.

Deep saliency prediction algorithms complement the object recognition features, they typically rely on additional information, such as scene context, semantic relationships, gaze direction, and object dissimilarity. However, none of these models consider the temporal nature of gaze shifts during image observation. We introduce a novel saliency prediction model that learns to output saliency maps in sequential time intervals by exploiting human temporal attention patterns. Our approach locally modulates the saliency predictions by combining the learned temporal maps. Our experiments show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art models, including a multi-duration saliency model, on the SALICON benchmark. Our code will be publicly available on GitHub.

In the field of natural language processing, open-domain chatbots have emerged as an important research topic. However, a major limitation of existing open-domain chatbot research is its singular focus on short single-session dialogue, neglecting the potential need for understanding contextual information in multiple consecutive sessions that precede an ongoing dialogue. Among the elements that compose the context in multi-session conversation settings, the time intervals between sessions and the relationships between speakers would be particularly important. Despite their importance, current research efforts have not sufficiently addressed these dialogical components. In this paper, we introduce a new 1M multi-session dialogue dataset, called Conversation Chronicles, for implementing a long-term conversation setup in which time intervals and fine-grained speaker relationships are incorporated. Following recent works, we exploit a large language model to produce the data. The extensive human evaluation shows that dialogue episodes in Conversation Chronicles reflect those properties while maintaining coherent and consistent interactions across all the sessions. We also propose a dialogue model, called ReBot, which consists of chronological summarization and dialogue generation modules using only around 630M parameters. When trained on Conversation Chronicles, ReBot demonstrates long-term context understanding with a high human engagement score.

This paper considers the problem of Multi-Hop Video Question Answering (MH-VidQA) in long-form egocentric videos. This task not only requires to answer visual questions, but also to localize multiple relevant time intervals within the video as visual evidences. We develop an automated pipeline to create multi-hop question-answering pairs with associated temporal evidence, enabling to construct a large-scale dataset for instruction-tuning. To monitor the progress of this new task, we further curate a high-quality benchmark, MultiHop-EgoQA, with careful manual verification and refinement. Experimental results reveal that existing multi-modal systems exhibit inadequate multi-hop grounding and reasoning abilities, resulting in unsatisfactory performance. We then propose a novel architecture, termed as Grounding Scattered Evidence with Large Language Model (GeLM), that enhances multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) by incorporating a grounding module to retrieve temporal evidence from videos using flexible grounding tokens. Trained on our visual instruction data, GeLM demonstrates improved multi-hop grounding and reasoning capabilities, setting a new baseline for this challenging task. Furthermore, when trained on third-person view videos, the same architecture also achieves state-of-the-art performance on the single-hop VidQA benchmark, ActivityNet-RTL, demonstrating its effectiveness.

Audio Description (AD) is the task of generating descriptions of visual content, at suitable time intervals, for the benefit of visually impaired audiences. For movies, this presents notable challenges -- AD must occur only during existing pauses in dialogue, should refer to characters by name, and ought to aid understanding of the storyline as a whole. To this end, we develop a new model for automatically generating movie AD, given CLIP visual features of the frames, the cast list, and the temporal locations of the speech; addressing all three of the 'who', 'when', and 'what' questions: (i) who -- we introduce a character bank consisting of the character's name, the actor that played the part, and a CLIP feature of their face, for the principal cast of each movie, and demonstrate how this can be used to improve naming in the generated AD; (ii) when -- we investigate several models for determining whether an AD should be generated for a time interval or not, based on the visual content of the interval and its neighbours; and (iii) what -- we implement a new vision-language model for this task, that can ingest the proposals from the character bank, whilst conditioning on the visual features using cross-attention, and demonstrate how this improves over previous architectures for AD text generation in an apples-to-apples comparison.

Discovering the underlying relationships among variables from temporal observations has been a longstanding challenge in numerous scientific disciplines, including biology, finance, and climate science. The dynamics of such systems are often best described using continuous-time stochastic processes. Unfortunately, most existing structure learning approaches assume that the underlying process evolves in discrete-time and/or observations occur at regular time intervals. These mismatched assumptions can often lead to incorrect learned structures and models. In this work, we introduce a novel structure learning method, SCOTCH, which combines neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) with variational inference to infer a posterior distribution over possible structures. This continuous-time approach can naturally handle both learning from and predicting observations at arbitrary time points. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions for an SDE and SCOTCH to be structurally identifiable, and prove its consistency under infinite data limits. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach leads to improved structure learning performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to relevant baselines under regular and irregular sampling intervals.

Humans share a wide variety of images related to their personal experiences within conversations via instant messaging tools. However, existing works focus on (1) image-sharing behavior in singular sessions, leading to limited long-term social interaction, and (2) a lack of personalized image-sharing behavior. In this work, we introduce Stark, a large-scale long-term multi-modal conversation dataset that covers a wide range of social personas in a multi-modality format, time intervals, and images. To construct Stark automatically, we propose a novel multi-modal contextualization framework, Mcu, that generates long-term multi-modal dialogue distilled from ChatGPT and our proposed Plan-and-Execute image aligner. Using our Stark, we train a multi-modal conversation model, Ultron 7B, which demonstrates impressive visual imagination ability. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our dataset in human evaluation. We make our source code and dataset publicly available.

Second-order training methods have better convergence properties than gradient descent but are rarely used in practice for large-scale training due to their computational overhead. This can be viewed as a hardware limitation (imposed by digital computers). Here we show that natural gradient descent (NGD), a second-order method, can have a similar computational complexity per iteration to a first-order method, when employing appropriate hardware. We present a new hybrid digital-analog algorithm for training neural networks that is equivalent to NGD in a certain parameter regime but avoids prohibitively costly linear system solves. Our algorithm exploits the thermodynamic properties of an analog system at equilibrium, and hence requires an analog thermodynamic computer. The training occurs in a hybrid digital-analog loop, where the gradient and Fisher information matrix (or any other positive semi-definite curvature matrix) are calculated at given time intervals while the analog dynamics take place. We numerically demonstrate the superiority of this approach over state-of-the-art digital first- and second-order training methods on classification tasks and language model fine-tuning tasks.

Foundation Models (FMs) trained on Electronic Health Records (EHRs) have achieved state-of-the-art results on numerous clinical prediction tasks. However, most existing EHR FMs have context windows of <1k tokens. This prevents them from modeling full patient EHRs which can exceed 10k's of events. Recent advancements in subquadratic long-context architectures (e.g., Mamba) offer a promising solution. However, their application to EHR data has not been well-studied. We address this gap by presenting the first systematic evaluation of the effect of context length on modeling EHR data. We find that longer context models improve predictive performance -- our Mamba-based model surpasses the prior state-of-the-art on 9/14 tasks on the EHRSHOT prediction benchmark. For clinical applications, however, model performance alone is insufficient -- robustness to the unique properties of EHR is crucial. Thus, we also evaluate models across three previously underexplored properties of EHR data: (1) the prevalence of "copy-forwarded" diagnoses which creates artificial repetition of tokens within EHR sequences; (2) the irregular time intervals between EHR events which can lead to a wide range of timespans within a context window; and (3) the natural increase in disease complexity over time which makes later tokens in the EHR harder to predict than earlier ones. Stratifying our EHRSHOT results, we find that higher levels of each property correlate negatively with model performance, but that longer context models are more robust to more extreme levels of these properties. Our work highlights the potential for using long-context architectures to model EHR data, and offers a case study for identifying new challenges in modeling sequential data motivated by domains outside of natural language. We release our models and code at: https://github.com/som-shahlab/long_context_clues

We propose a generative model that, given a coarsely edited image, synthesizes a photorealistic output that follows the prescribed layout. Our method transfers fine details from the original image and preserves the identity of its parts. Yet, it adapts it to the lighting and context defined by the new layout. Our key insight is that videos are a powerful source of supervision for this task: objects and camera motions provide many observations of how the world changes with viewpoint, lighting, and physical interactions. We construct an image dataset in which each sample is a pair of source and target frames extracted from the same video at randomly chosen time intervals. We warp the source frame toward the target using two motion models that mimic the expected test-time user edits. We supervise our model to translate the warped image into the ground truth, starting from a pretrained diffusion model. Our model design explicitly enables fine detail transfer from the source frame to the generated image, while closely following the user-specified layout. We show that by using simple segmentations and coarse 2D manipulations, we can synthesize a photorealistic edit faithful to the user's input while addressing second-order effects like harmonizing the lighting and physical interactions between edited objects.

Health conditions among patients in intensive care units (ICUs) are monitored via electronic health records (EHRs), composed of numerical time series and lengthy clinical note sequences, both taken at irregular time intervals. Dealing with such irregularity in every modality, and integrating irregularity into multimodal representations to improve medical predictions, is a challenging problem. Our method first addresses irregularity in each single modality by (1) modeling irregular time series by dynamically incorporating hand-crafted imputation embeddings into learned interpolation embeddings via a gating mechanism, and (2) casting a series of clinical note representations as multivariate irregular time series and tackling irregularity via a time attention mechanism. We further integrate irregularity in multimodal fusion with an interleaved attention mechanism across temporal steps. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to thoroughly model irregularity in multimodalities for improving medical predictions. Our proposed methods for two medical prediction tasks consistently outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) baselines in each single modality and multimodal fusion scenarios. Specifically, we observe relative improvements of 6.5\%, 3.6\%, and 4.3\% in F1 for time series, clinical notes, and multimodal fusion, respectively. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods and the importance of considering irregularity in multimodal EHRs.

Reinforcement learning (RL) tasks are typically framed as Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), assuming that decisions are made at fixed time intervals. However, many applications of great importance, including healthcare, do not satisfy this assumption, yet they are commonly modelled as MDPs after an artificial reshaping of the data. In addition, most healthcare (and similar) problems are offline by nature, allowing for only retrospective studies. To address both challenges, we begin by discussing the Semi-MDP (SMDP) framework, which formally handles actions of variable timings. We next present a formal way to apply SMDP modifications to nearly any given value-based offline RL method. We use this theory to introduce three SMDP-based offline RL algorithms, namely, SDQN, SDDQN, and SBCQ. We then experimentally demonstrate that only these SMDP-based algorithms learn the optimal policy in variable-time environments, whereas their MDP counterparts do not. Finally, we apply our new algorithms to a real-world offline dataset pertaining to warfarin dosing for stroke prevention and demonstrate similar results.

While accurately detecting and correcting factual contradictions in language model outputs has become increasingly important as their capabilities improve, doing so is highly challenging. We propose a novel method, FACTTRACK, for tracking atomic facts and addressing factual contradictions. Crucially, FACTTRACK also maintains time-aware validity intervals for each fact, allowing for change over time. At a high level, FACTTRACK consists of a four-step pipeline to update a world state data structure for each new event: (1) decompose the event into directional atomic facts; (2) determine the validity interval of each atomic fact using the world state; (3) detect contradictions with existing facts in the world state; and finally (4) add new facts to the world state and update existing atomic facts. When we apply FACTTRACK to contradiction detection on structured story outlines, we find that FACTTRACK using LLaMA2-7B-Chat substantially outperforms a fair baseline using LLaMA2-7B-Chat, and achieves performance comparable to a GPT4 baseline. Moreover, when using GPT4, FACTTRACK significantly outperforms the GPT4 baseline.

Prediction of stock price and stock price movement patterns has always been a critical area of research. While the well-known efficient market hypothesis rules out any possibility of accurate prediction of stock prices, there are formal propositions in the literature demonstrating accurate modeling of the predictive systems that can enable us to predict stock prices with a very high level of accuracy. In this paper, we present a suite of deep learning-based regression models that yields a very high level of accuracy in stock price prediction. To build our predictive models, we use the historical stock price data of a well-known company listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India during the period December 31, 2012 to January 9, 2015. The stock prices are recorded at five minutes intervals of time during each working day in a week. Using these extremely granular stock price data, we build four convolutional neural network (CNN) and five long- and short-term memory (LSTM)-based deep learning models for accurate forecasting of the future stock prices. We provide detailed results on the forecasting accuracies of all our proposed models based on their execution time and their root mean square error (RMSE) values.

Irregular sampling intervals and missing values in real-world time series data present challenges for conventional methods that assume consistent intervals and complete data. Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs) offer an alternative approach, utilizing neural networks combined with ODE solvers to learn continuous latent representations through parameterized vector fields. Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (Neural SDEs) extend Neural ODEs by incorporating a diffusion term, although this addition is not trivial, particularly when addressing irregular intervals and missing values. Consequently, careful design of drift and diffusion functions is crucial for maintaining stability and enhancing performance, while incautious choices can result in adverse properties such as the absence of strong solutions, stochastic destabilization, or unstable Euler discretizations, significantly affecting Neural SDEs' performance. In this study, we propose three stable classes of Neural SDEs: Langevin-type SDE, Linear Noise SDE, and Geometric SDE. Then, we rigorously demonstrate their robustness in maintaining excellent performance under distribution shift, while effectively preventing overfitting. To assess the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets for interpolation, forecasting, and classification tasks, and analyze the robustness of our methods with 30 public datasets under different missing rates. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method in handling real-world irregular time series data.

Evaluating anomaly detection algorithms in time series data is critical as inaccuracies can lead to flawed decision-making in various domains where real-time analytics and data-driven strategies are essential. Traditional performance metrics assume iid data and fail to capture the complex temporal dynamics and specific characteristics of time series anomalies, such as early and delayed detections. We introduce Proximity-Aware Time series anomaly Evaluation (PATE), a novel evaluation metric that incorporates the temporal relationship between prediction and anomaly intervals. PATE uses proximity-based weighting considering buffer zones around anomaly intervals, enabling a more detailed and informed assessment of a detection. Using these weights, PATE computes a weighted version of the area under the Precision and Recall curve. Our experiments with synthetic and real-world datasets show the superiority of PATE in providing more sensible and accurate evaluations than other evaluation metrics. We also tested several state-of-the-art anomaly detectors across various benchmark datasets using the PATE evaluation scheme. The results show that a common metric like Point-Adjusted F1 Score fails to characterize the detection performances well, and that PATE is able to provide a more fair model comparison. By introducing PATE, we redefine the understanding of model efficacy that steers future studies toward developing more effective and accurate detection models.

This paper analyses the degree to which dialect classifiers based on syntactic representations remain stable over space and time. While previous work has shown that the combination of grammar induction and geospatial text classification produces robust dialect models, we do not know what influence both changing grammars and changing populations have on dialect models. This paper constructs a test set for 12 dialects of English that spans three years at monthly intervals with a fixed spatial distribution across 1,120 cities. Syntactic representations are formulated within the usage-based Construction Grammar paradigm (CxG). The decay rate of classification performance for each dialect over time allows us to identify regions undergoing syntactic change. And the distribution of classification accuracy within dialect regions allows us to identify the degree to which the grammar of a dialect is internally heterogeneous. The main contribution of this paper is to show that a rigorous evaluation of dialect classification models can be used to find both variation over space and change over time.

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper, we propose a Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. We prove that CopulaCPTS has finite sample validity guarantee. On several synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and sharp confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.

While recent multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have advanced automated ECG interpretation, they still face two key limitations: (1) insufficient multimodal synergy between time series signals and visual ECG representations, and (2) limited explainability in linking diagnoses to granular waveform evidence. We introduce GEM, the first MLLM unifying ECG time series, 12-lead ECG images and text for grounded and clinician-aligned ECG interpretation. GEM enables feature-grounded analysis, evidence-driven reasoning, and a clinician-like diagnostic process through three core innovations: a dual-encoder framework extracting complementary time series and image features, cross-modal alignment for effective multimodal understanding, and knowledge-guided instruction generation for generating high-granularity grounding data (ECG-Grounding) linking diagnoses to measurable parameters (e.g., QRS/PR Intervals). Additionally, we propose the Grounded ECG Understanding task, a clinically motivated benchmark designed to comprehensively assess the MLLM's capability in grounded ECG understanding. Experimental results on both existing and our proposed benchmarks show GEM significantly improves predictive performance (CSN 7.4% uparrow), explainability (22.7% uparrow), and grounding (24.8% uparrow), making it more suitable for real-world clinical applications. GitHub repository: https://github.com/lanxiang1017/GEM.git

Irregularly sampled time series data arise naturally in many application domains including biology, ecology, climate science, astronomy, and health. Such data represent fundamental challenges to many classical models from machine learning and statistics due to the presence of non-uniform intervals between observations. However, there has been significant progress within the machine learning community over the last decade on developing specialized models and architectures for learning from irregularly sampled univariate and multivariate time series data. In this survey, we first describe several axes along which approaches to learning from irregularly sampled time series differ including what data representations they are based on, what modeling primitives they leverage to deal with the fundamental problem of irregular sampling, and what inference tasks they are designed to perform. We then survey the recent literature organized primarily along the axis of modeling primitives. We describe approaches based on temporal discretization, interpolation, recurrence, attention and structural invariance. We discuss similarities and differences between approaches and highlight primary strengths and weaknesses.

Recent work has demonstrated the significant potential of denoising diffusion models for generating human motion, including text-to-motion capabilities. However, these methods are restricted by the paucity of annotated motion data, a focus on single-person motions, and a lack of detailed control. In this paper, we introduce three forms of composition based on diffusion priors: sequential, parallel, and model composition. Using sequential composition, we tackle the challenge of long sequence generation. We introduce DoubleTake, an inference-time method with which we generate long animations consisting of sequences of prompted intervals and their transitions, using a prior trained only for short clips. Using parallel composition, we show promising steps toward two-person generation. Beginning with two fixed priors as well as a few two-person training examples, we learn a slim communication block, ComMDM, to coordinate interaction between the two resulting motions. Lastly, using model composition, we first train individual priors to complete motions that realize a prescribed motion for a given joint. We then introduce DiffusionBlending, an interpolation mechanism to effectively blend several such models to enable flexible and efficient fine-grained joint and trajectory-level control and editing. We evaluate the composition methods using an off-the-shelf motion diffusion model, and further compare the results to dedicated models trained for these specific tasks.

Music foundation models possess impressive music generation capabilities. When people compose music, they may infuse their understanding of music into their work, by using notes and intervals to craft melodies, chords to build progressions, and tempo to create a rhythmic feel. To what extent is this true of music generation models? More specifically, are fundamental Western music theory concepts observable within the "inner workings" of these models? Recent work proposed leveraging latent audio representations from music generation models towards music information retrieval tasks (e.g. genre classification, emotion recognition), which suggests that high-level musical characteristics are encoded within these models. However, probing individual music theory concepts (e.g. tempo, pitch class, chord quality) remains under-explored. Thus, we introduce SynTheory, a synthetic MIDI and audio music theory dataset, consisting of tempos, time signatures, notes, intervals, scales, chords, and chord progressions concepts. We then propose a framework to probe for these music theory concepts in music foundation models (Jukebox and MusicGen) and assess how strongly they encode these concepts within their internal representations. Our findings suggest that music theory concepts are discernible within foundation models and that the degree to which they are detectable varies by model size and layer.

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop new online conformal prediction methods that minimize the strongly adaptive regret, which measures the worst-case regret over all intervals of a fixed length. We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage. Experiments show that our methods consistently obtain better coverage and smaller prediction sets than existing methods on real-world tasks, such as time series forecasting and image classification under distribution shift.

This work derives methods for performing nonparametric, nonasymptotic statistical inference for population means under the constraint of local differential privacy (LDP). Given bounded observations (X_1, dots, X_n) with mean mu^star that are privatized into (Z_1, dots, Z_n), we present confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for mu^star when only given access to the privatized data. To achieve this, we introduce a nonparametric and sequentially interactive generalization of Warner's famous ``randomized response'' mechanism, satisfying LDP for arbitrary bounded random variables, and then provide CIs and CSs for their means given access to the resulting privatized observations. For example, our results yield private analogues of Hoeffding's inequality in both fixed-time and time-uniform regimes. We extend these Hoeffding-type CSs to capture time-varying (non-stationary) means, and conclude by illustrating how these methods can be used to conduct private online A/B tests.

Most knowledge graph completion (KGC) methods learn latent representations of entities and relations of a given graph by mapping them into a vector space. Although the majority of these methods focus on static knowledge graphs, a large number of publicly available KGs contain temporal information stating the time instant/period over which a certain fact has been true. Such graphs are often known as temporal knowledge graphs. Furthermore, knowledge graphs may also contain textual descriptions of entities and relations. Both temporal information and textual descriptions are not taken into account during representation learning by static KGC methods, and only structural information of the graph is leveraged. Recently, some studies have used temporal information to improve link prediction, yet they do not exploit textual descriptions and do not support inductive inference (prediction on entities that have not been seen in training). We propose a novel framework called TEMT that exploits the power of pre-trained language models (PLMs) for text-enhanced temporal knowledge graph completion. The knowledge stored in the parameters of a PLM allows TEMT to produce rich semantic representations of facts and to generalize on previously unseen entities. TEMT leverages textual and temporal information available in a KG, treats them separately, and fuses them to get plausibility scores of facts. Unlike previous approaches, TEMT effectively captures dependencies across different time points and enables predictions on unseen entities. To assess the performance of TEMT, we carried out several experiments including time interval prediction, both in transductive and inductive settings, and triple classification. The experimental results show that TEMT is competitive with the state-of-the-art.

Video outpainting aims to adequately complete missing areas at the edges of video frames. Compared to image outpainting, it presents an additional challenge as the model should maintain the temporal consistency of the filled area. In this paper, we introduce a masked 3D diffusion model for video outpainting. We use the technique of mask modeling to train the 3D diffusion model. This allows us to use multiple guide frames to connect the results of multiple video clip inferences, thus ensuring temporal consistency and reducing jitter between adjacent frames. Meanwhile, we extract the global frames of the video as prompts and guide the model to obtain information other than the current video clip using cross-attention. We also introduce a hybrid coarse-to-fine inference pipeline to alleviate the artifact accumulation problem. The existing coarse-to-fine pipeline only uses the infilling strategy, which brings degradation because the time interval of the sparse frames is too large. Our pipeline benefits from bidirectional learning of the mask modeling and thus can employ a hybrid strategy of infilling and interpolation when generating sparse frames. Experiments show that our method achieves state-of-the-art results in video outpainting tasks. More results are provided at our https://fanfanda.github.io/M3DDM/.

Introduction: The paper addresses the challenging problem of predicting the short-term realized volatility of the Bitcoin price using order flow information. The inherent stochastic nature and anti-persistence of price pose difficulties in accurate prediction. Methods: To address this, we propose a method that transforms order flow data over a fixed time interval (snapshots) into images. The order flow includes trade sizes, trade directions, and limit order book, and is mapped into image colour channels. These images are then used to train both a simple 3-layer Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and more advanced ResNet-18 and ConvMixer, with additionally supplementing them with hand-crafted features. The models are evaluated against classical GARCH, Multilayer Perceptron trained on raw data, and a naive guess method that considers current volatility as a prediction. Results: The experiments are conducted using price data from January 2021 and evaluate model performance in terms of root mean square error (RMSPE). The results show that our order flow representation with a CNN as a predictive model achieves the best performance, with an RMSPE of 0.85+/-1.1 for the model with aggregated features and 1.0+/-1.4 for the model without feature supplementation. ConvMixer with feature supplementation follows closely. In comparison, the RMSPE for the naive guess method was 1.4+/-3.0.

Facial aging is a complex process, highly dependent on multiple factors like gender, ethnicity, lifestyle, etc., making it extremely challenging to learn a global aging prior to predict aging for any individual accurately. Existing techniques often produce realistic and plausible aging results, but the re-aged images often do not resemble the person's appearance at the target age and thus need personalization. In many practical applications of virtual aging, e.g. VFX in movies and TV shows, access to a personal photo collection of the user depicting aging in a small time interval (20sim40 years) is often available. However, naive attempts to personalize global aging techniques on personal photo collections often fail. Thus, we propose MyTimeMachine (MyTM), which combines a global aging prior with a personal photo collection (using as few as 50 images) to learn a personalized age transformation. We introduce a novel Adapter Network that combines personalized aging features with global aging features and generates a re-aged image with StyleGAN2. We also introduce three loss functions to personalize the Adapter Network with personalized aging loss, extrapolation regularization, and adaptive w-norm regularization. Our approach can also be extended to videos, achieving high-quality, identity-preserving, and temporally consistent aging effects that resemble actual appearances at target ages, demonstrating its superiority over state-of-the-art approaches.

Video Temporal Grounding (VTG), which aims to ground target clips from videos (such as consecutive intervals or disjoint shots) according to custom language queries (e.g., sentences or words), is key for video browsing on social media. Most methods in this direction develop taskspecific models that are trained with type-specific labels, such as moment retrieval (time interval) and highlight detection (worthiness curve), which limits their abilities to generalize to various VTG tasks and labels. In this paper, we propose to Unify the diverse VTG labels and tasks, dubbed UniVTG, along three directions: Firstly, we revisit a wide range of VTG labels and tasks and define a unified formulation. Based on this, we develop data annotation schemes to create scalable pseudo supervision. Secondly, we develop an effective and flexible grounding model capable of addressing each task and making full use of each label. Lastly, thanks to the unified framework, we are able to unlock temporal grounding pretraining from large-scale diverse labels and develop stronger grounding abilities e.g., zero-shot grounding. Extensive experiments on three tasks (moment retrieval, highlight detection and video summarization) across seven datasets (QVHighlights, Charades-STA, TACoS, Ego4D, YouTube Highlights, TVSum, and QFVS) demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of our proposed framework. The codes are available at https://github.com/showlab/UniVTG.

(Dis)agreement detection aims to identify the authors' attitudes or positions ({agree, disagree, neutral}) towards a specific text. It is limited for existing methods merely using textual information for identifying (dis)agreements, especially for cross-domain settings. Social relation information can play an assistant role in the (dis)agreement task besides textual information. We propose a novel method to extract such relation information from (dis)agreement data into an inductive social relation graph, merely using the comment-reply pairs without any additional platform-specific information. The inductive social relation globally considers the historical discussion and the relation between authors. Textual information based on a pre-trained language model and social relation information encoded by pre-trained RGCN are jointly considered for (dis)agreement detection. Experimental results show that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance for both the in-domain and cross-domain tasks on the benchmark -- DEBAGREEMENT. We find social relations can boost the performance of the (dis)agreement detection model, especially for the long-token comment-reply pairs, demonstrating the effectiveness of the social relation graph. We also explore the effect of the knowledge graph embedding methods, the information fusing method, and the time interval in constructing the social relation graph, which shows the effectiveness of our model.

Given an untrimmed video and a language query depicting a specific temporal moment in the video, video grounding aims to localize the time interval by understanding the text and video simultaneously. One of the most challenging issues is an extremely time- and cost-consuming annotation collection, including video captions in a natural language form and their corresponding temporal regions. In this paper, we present a simple yet novel training framework for video grounding in the zero-shot setting, which learns a network with only video data without any annotation. Inspired by the recent language-free paradigm, i.e. training without language data, we train the network without compelling the generation of fake (pseudo) text queries into a natural language form. Specifically, we propose a method for learning a video grounding model by selecting a temporal interval as a hypothetical correct answer and considering the visual feature selected by our method in the interval as a language feature, with the help of the well-aligned visual-language space of CLIP. Extensive experiments demonstrate the prominence of our language-free training framework, outperforming the existing zero-shot video grounding method and even several weakly-supervised approaches with large margins on two standard datasets.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

Recognizing the flow of time in a story is a crucial aspect of understanding it. Prior work related to time has primarily focused on identifying temporal expressions or relative sequencing of events, but here we propose computationally annotating each line of a book with wall clock times, even in the absence of explicit time-descriptive phrases. To do so, we construct a data set of hourly time phrases from 52,183 fictional books. We then construct a time-of-day classification model that achieves an average error of 2.27 hours. Furthermore, we show that by analyzing a book in whole using dynamic programming of breakpoints, we can roughly partition a book into segments that each correspond to a particular time-of-day. This approach improves upon baselines by over two hours. Finally, we apply our model to a corpus of literature categorized by different periods in history, to show interesting trends of hourly activity throughout the past. Among several observations we find that the fraction of events taking place past 10 P.M jumps past 1880 - coincident with the advent of the electric light bulb and city lights.

Time is an important dimension in our physical world. Lots of facts can evolve with respect to time. For example, the U.S. President might change every four years. Therefore, it is important to consider the time dimension and empower the existing QA models to reason over time. However, the existing QA datasets contain rather few time-sensitive questions, hence not suitable for diagnosing or benchmarking the model's temporal reasoning capability. In order to promote research in this direction, we propose to construct a time-sensitive QA dataset. The dataset is constructed by 1) mining time-evolving facts from WikiData and aligning them to their corresponding Wikipedia page, 2) employing crowd workers to verify and calibrate these noisy facts, 3) generating question-answer pairs based on the annotated time-sensitive facts. Our dataset poses challenges in the aspect of both temporal understanding and temporal reasoning. We evaluate different SoTA long-document QA systems like BigBird and FiD on our dataset. The best-performing model FiD can only achieve 46\% accuracy, still far behind the human performance of 87\%. We demonstrate that these models are still lacking the ability to perform consistent temporal reasoning. Therefore, we believe that our dataset could serve as a benchmark to develop NLP models more sensitive to temporal shifts. The dataset and code are released in~https://github.com/wenhuchen/Time-Sensitive-QA.

Reasoning about time is of fundamental importance. Many facts are time-dependent. For example, athletes change teams from time to time, and different government officials are elected periodically. Previous time-dependent question answering (QA) datasets tend to be biased in either their coverage of time spans or question types. In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive probing dataset \tempreason to evaluate the temporal reasoning capability of large language models. Our dataset includes questions of three temporal reasoning levels. In addition, we also propose a novel learning framework to improve the temporal reasoning capability of large language models, based on temporal span extraction and time-sensitive reinforcement learning. We conducted experiments in closed book QA, open book QA, and reasoning QA settings and demonstrated the effectiveness of our approach. Our code and data are released on https://github.com/DAMO-NLP-SG/TempReason.

Knowing how to end and resume conversations over time is a natural part of communication, allowing for discussions to span weeks, months, or years. The duration of gaps between conversations dictates which topics are relevant and which questions to ask, and dialogue systems which do not explicitly model time may generate responses that are unnatural. In this work we explore the idea of making dialogue models aware of time, and present GapChat, a multi-session dialogue dataset in which the time between each session varies. While the dataset is constructed in real-time, progress on events in speakers' lives is simulated in order to create realistic dialogues occurring across a long timespan. We expose time information to the model and compare different representations of time and event progress. In human evaluation we show that time-aware models perform better in metrics that judge the relevance of the chosen topics and the information gained from the conversation.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

We present time vectors, a simple tool to customize language models to new time periods. Time vectors are created by finetuning a language model on data from a single time (e.g., a year or month), and then subtracting the weights of the original pretrained model. This vector specifies a direction in weight space that, as our experiments show, improves performance on text from that time period. Time vectors specialized to adjacent time periods appear to be positioned closer together in a manifold. Using this structure, we interpolate between time vectors to induce new models that perform better on intervening and future time periods, without any additional training. We demonstrate the consistency of our findings across different tasks, domains, model sizes, and time scales. Our results suggest that time is encoded in the weight space of finetuned models.

Chronotype compares individuals' circadian phase to others. It contextualizes mental health risk assessments and detection of social jet lag, which can hamper mental health and cognitive performance. Existing ways of determining chronotypes, such as Dim Light Melatonin Onset (DLMO) or the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire (MEQ), are limited by being discrete in time and time-intensive to update, meaning they rarely capture real-world variability across time. Chronotyping users based on a daily planner app might augment existing methods to enable assessment continuously and at scale. This paper reports the construction of a supervised binary classifier that attempts to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach. 1,460 registered users from the Owaves app opted in by filling out the MEQ survey between July 14, 2022, and May 1, 2023. 142 met the eligibility criteria. We used multimodal app data from individuals identified as morning and evening types from MEQ data, basing the classifier on app time series data. This included daily timing for 8 main lifestyle activity types: exercise, sleep, social interactions, meal times, relaxation, work, play, and miscellaneous, as defined in the app. The timing of activities showed substantial change across time, as well as heterogeneity by activity type. Our novel chronotyping classifier was able to predict the morningness and eveningness of its users with an ROC AUC of 0.70. Our findings demonstrate the feasibility of chronotype classification from multimodal, real-world app data, while highlighting fundamental challenges to applying discrete and fixed labels to complex, dynamic, multimodal behaviors. Our findings suggest a potential for real-time monitoring of shifts in chronotype specific to different causes (i.e. types of activity), which could feasibly be used to support future, prospective mental health support research.

Earthquakes are evaluated among the most destructive disasters for human beings, as also experienced for Turkiye region. Data science has the property of discovering hidden patterns in case a sufficient volume of data is supplied. Time dependency of events, specifically being defined by co-occurrence in a specific time window, may be handled as an associate rule mining task such as a market-basket analysis application. In this regard, we assumed each day's seismic activity as a single basket of events, leading to discovering the association patterns between these events. Consequently, this study presents the most prominent association rules for the earthquakes recorded in Turkiye region in the last 5 years, each year presented separately. Results indicate statistical inference with events recorded from regions of various distances, which could be further verified with geologic evidence from the field. As a result, we believe that the current study may form a statistical basis for the future works with the aid of machine learning algorithm performed for associate rule mining.

Understanding time is crucial for understanding events expressed in natural language. Because people rarely say the obvious, it is often necessary to have commonsense knowledge about various temporal aspects of events, such as duration, frequency, and temporal order. However, this important problem has so far received limited attention. This paper systematically studies this temporal commonsense problem. Specifically, we define five classes of temporal commonsense, and use crowdsourcing to develop a new dataset, MCTACO, that serves as a test set for this task. We find that the best current methods used on MCTACO are still far behind human performance, by about 20%, and discuss several directions for improvement. We hope that the new dataset and our study here can foster more future research on this topic.

In the real world, objects reveal internal textures when sliced or cut, yet this behavior is not well-studied in 3D generation tasks today. For example, slicing a virtual 3D watermelon should reveal flesh and seeds. Given that no available dataset captures an object's full internal structure and collecting data from all slices is impractical, generative methods become the obvious approach. However, current 3D generation and inpainting methods often focus on visible appearance and overlook internal textures. To bridge this gap, we introduce FruitNinja, the first method to generate internal textures for 3D objects undergoing geometric and topological changes. Our approach produces objects via 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) with both surface and interior textures synthesized, enabling real-time slicing and rendering without additional optimization. FruitNinja leverages a pre-trained diffusion model to progressively inpaint cross-sectional views and applies voxel-grid-based smoothing to achieve cohesive textures throughout the object. Our OpaqueAtom GS strategy overcomes 3DGS limitations by employing densely distributed opaque Gaussians, avoiding biases toward larger particles that destabilize training and sharp color transitions for fine-grained textures. Experimental results show that FruitNinja substantially outperforms existing approaches, showcasing unmatched visual quality in real-time rendered internal views across arbitrary geometry manipulations.

Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility.

Time series models face significant challenges in scaling to handle large and complex datasets, akin to the scaling achieved by large language models (LLMs). The unique characteristics of time series data and the computational demands of model scaling necessitate innovative approaches. While researchers have explored various architectures such as Transformers, LSTMs, and GRUs to address these challenges, we propose a novel solution using RWKV-7, which incorporates meta-learning into its state update mechanism. By integrating RWKV-7's time mix and channel mix components into the transformer-based time series model Timer, we achieve a substantial performance improvement of approximately 1.13 to 43.3x and a 4.5x reduction in training time with 1/23 parameters, all while utilizing fewer parameters. Our code and model weights are publicly available for further research and development at https://github.com/Alic-Li/BlackGoose_Rimer.

Time series analysis has witnessed the inspiring development from traditional autoregressive models, deep learning models, to recent Transformers and Large Language Models (LLMs). Efforts in leveraging vision models for time series analysis have also been made along the way but are less visible to the community due to the predominant research on sequence modeling in this domain. However, the discrepancy between continuous time series and the discrete token space of LLMs, and the challenges in explicitly modeling the correlations of variates in multivariate time series have shifted some research attentions to the equally successful Large Vision Models (LVMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs). To fill the blank in the existing literature, this survey discusses the advantages of vision models over LLMs in time series analysis. It provides a comprehensive and in-depth overview of the existing methods, with dual views of detailed taxonomy that answer the key research questions including how to encode time series as images and how to model the imaged time series for various tasks. Additionally, we address the challenges in the pre- and post-processing steps involved in this framework and outline future directions to further advance time series analysis with vision models.

Large language models (LLMs) are often trained on extensive, temporally indiscriminate text corpora, reflecting the lack of datasets with temporal metadata. This approach is not aligned with the evolving nature of language. Conventional methods for creating temporally adapted language models often depend on further pre-training static models on time-specific data. This paper presents a new approach: a series of point-in-time LLMs called Time Machine GPT (TiMaGPT), specifically designed to be nonprognosticative. This ensures they remain uninformed about future factual information and linguistic changes. This strategy is beneficial for understanding language evolution and is of critical importance when applying models in dynamic contexts, such as time-series forecasting, where foresight of future information can prove problematic. We provide access to both the models and training datasets.

Time series has been left behind in the era of pre-training and transfer learning. While research in the fields of natural language processing and computer vision are enjoying progressively larger datasets to train massive models, the most popular time series datasets consist of only tens of thousands of time steps, limiting our ability to study the effectiveness of pre-training and scaling. Recent studies have also cast doubt on the need for expressive models and scale. To alleviate these issues, we introduce three large-scale time series forecasting datasets from the cloud operations (CloudOps) domain, the largest having billions of observations, enabling further study into pre-training and scaling of time series models. We build the empirical groundwork for studying pre-training and scaling of time series models and pave the way for future research by identifying a promising candidate architecture. We show that it is a strong zero-shot baseline and benefits from further scaling, both in model and dataset size. Accompanying these datasets and results is a suite of comprehensive benchmark results comparing classical and deep learning baselines to our pre-trained method - achieving a 27% reduction in error on the largest dataset. Code and datasets will be released.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are typically trained to predict in the forward direction of time. However, recent works have shown that prompting these models to look back and critique their own generations can produce useful feedback. Motivated by this, we explore the question of whether LLMs can be empowered to think (predict and score) backwards to provide unsupervised feedback that complements forward LLMs. Towards this, we introduce Time Reversed Language Models (TRLMs), which can score and generate queries when conditioned on responses, effectively functioning in the reverse direction of time. Further, to effectively infer in the response to query direction, we pre-train and fine-tune a language model (TRLM-Ba) in the reverse token order from scratch. We show empirically (and theoretically in a stylized setting) that time-reversed models can indeed complement forward model predictions when used to score the query given response for re-ranking multiple forward generations. We obtain up to 5\% improvement on the widely used AlpacaEval Leaderboard over the competent baseline of best-of-N re-ranking using self log-perplexity scores. We further show that TRLM scoring outperforms conventional forward scoring of response given query, resulting in significant gains in applications such as citation generation and passage retrieval. We next leverage the generative ability of TRLM to augment or provide unsupervised feedback to input safety filters of LLMs, demonstrating a drastic reduction in false negative rate with negligible impact on false positive rates against several attacks published on the popular JailbreakBench leaderboard.

One of the main challenges in optimal scaling of large language models (LLMs) is the prohibitive cost of hyperparameter tuning, particularly learning rate eta and batch size B. While techniques like muP (Yang et al., 2022) provide scaling rules for optimal eta transfer in the infinite model size limit, the optimal scaling behavior in the infinite data size limit remains unknown. We fill in this gap by observing for the first time an intricate dependence of optimal eta scaling on the pretraining token budget T, B and its relation to the critical batch size B_crit, which we measure to evolve as B_crit propto T. Furthermore, we show that the optimal batch size is positively correlated with B_crit: keeping it fixed becomes suboptimal over time even if learning rate is scaled optimally. Surprisingly, our results demonstrate that the observed optimal eta and B dynamics are preserved with muP model scaling, challenging the conventional view of B_crit dependence solely on loss value. Complementing optimality, we examine the sensitivity of loss to changes in learning rate, where we find the sensitivity to decrease with increase of T and to remain constant with muP model scaling. We hope our results make the first step towards a unified picture of the joint optimal data and model scaling.

Time series data, characterized by its intrinsic long and short-range dependencies, poses a unique challenge across analytical applications. While Transformer-based models excel at capturing long-range dependencies, they face limitations in noise sensitivity, computational efficiency, and overfitting with smaller datasets. In response, we introduce a novel Time Series Lightweight Adaptive Network (TSLANet), as a universal convolutional model for diverse time series tasks. Specifically, we propose an Adaptive Spectral Block, harnessing Fourier analysis to enhance feature representation and to capture both long-term and short-term interactions while mitigating noise via adaptive thresholding. Additionally, we introduce an Interactive Convolution Block and leverage self-supervised learning to refine the capacity of TSLANet for decoding complex temporal patterns and improve its robustness on different datasets. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate that TSLANet outperforms state-of-the-art models in various tasks spanning classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection, showcasing its resilience and adaptability across a spectrum of noise levels and data sizes. The code is available at https://github.com/emadeldeen24/TSLANet

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making across various domains, but it presents significant challenges. Recent studies have explored image-driven approaches using computer vision models to address these challenges, often employing lineplots as the visual representation of time series data. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that uses time-frequency spectrograms as the visual representation of time series data. We introduce the use of a vision transformer for multimodal learning, showcasing the advantages of our approach across diverse datasets from different domains. To evaluate its effectiveness, we compare our method against statistical baselines (EMA and ARIMA), a state-of-the-art deep learning-based approach (DeepAR), other visual representations of time series data (lineplot images), and an ablation study on using only the time series as input. Our experiments demonstrate the benefits of utilizing spectrograms as a visual representation for time series data, along with the advantages of employing a vision transformer for simultaneous learning in both the time and frequency domains.

With a 676% growth rate in HIV incidence between 2010 and 2021, the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Philippines is the one that is spreading the quickest in the western Pacific. Although the full effects of COVID-19 on HIV services and development are still unknown, it is predicted that such disruptions could lead to a significant increase in HIV casualties. Therefore, the nation needs some modeling and forecasting techniques to foresee the spread pattern and enhance the governments prevention, treatment, testing, and care program. In this study, the researcher uses Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network to forecast time series during the period when the COVID-19 pandemic strikes the nation, using statistics taken from the HIV/AIDS and ART Registry of the Philippines. After training, validation, and testing of data, the study finds that the predicted cumulative cases in the nation by 2030 will reach 145,273. Additionally, there is very little difference between observed and anticipated HIV epidemic levels, as evidenced by reduced RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values as well as a greater coefficient of determination. Further research revealed that the Philippines seems far from achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 of Project 2030 due to an increase in the nations rate of new HIV infections. Despite the detrimental effects of COVID-19 spread on HIV/AIDS efforts nationwide, the Philippine government, under the Marcos administration, must continue to adhere to the United Nations 90-90-90 targets by enhancing its ART program and ensuring that all vital health services are readily accessible and available.

Diffusion models have demonstrated robust data generation capabilities in various research fields. In this paper, a Time Series Diffusion Method (TSDM) is proposed for vibration signal generation, leveraging the foundational principles of diffusion models. The TSDM uses an improved U-net architecture with attention block to effectively segment and extract features from one-dimensional time series data. It operates based on forward diffusion and reverse denoising processes for time-series generation. Experimental validation is conducted using single-frequency, multi-frequency datasets, and bearing fault datasets. The results show that TSDM can accurately generate the single-frequency and multi-frequency features in the time series and retain the basic frequency features for the diffusion generation results of the bearing fault series. Finally, TSDM is applied to the small sample fault diagnosis of three public bearing fault datasets, and the results show that the accuracy of small sample fault diagnosis of the three datasets is improved by 32.380%, 18.355% and 9.298% at most, respectively

Spatially dense self-supervised learning is a rapidly growing problem domain with promising applications for unsupervised segmentation and pretraining for dense downstream tasks. Despite the abundance of temporal data in the form of videos, this information-rich source has been largely overlooked. Our paper aims to address this gap by proposing a novel approach that incorporates temporal consistency in dense self-supervised learning. While methods designed solely for images face difficulties in achieving even the same performance on videos, our method improves not only the representation quality for videos-but also images. Our approach, which we call time-tuning, starts from image-pretrained models and fine-tunes them with a novel self-supervised temporal-alignment clustering loss on unlabeled videos. This effectively facilitates the transfer of high-level information from videos to image representations. Time-tuning improves the state-of-the-art by 8-10% for unsupervised semantic segmentation on videos and matches it for images. We believe this method paves the way for further self-supervised scaling by leveraging the abundant availability of videos. The implementation can be found here : https://github.com/SMSD75/Timetuning

Time series forecasting is important across various domains for decision-making. In particular, financial time series such as stock prices can be hard to predict as it is difficult to model short-term and long-term temporal dependencies between data points. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) are good at capturing local patterns for modeling short-term dependencies. However, CNNs cannot learn long-term dependencies due to the limited receptive field. Transformers on the other hand are capable of learning global context and long-term dependencies. In this paper, we propose to harness the power of CNNs and Transformers to model both short-term and long-term dependencies within a time series, and forecast if the price would go up, down or remain the same (flat) in the future. In our experiments, we demonstrated the success of the proposed method in comparison to commonly adopted statistical and deep learning methods on forecasting intraday stock price change of S&P 500 constituents.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

Multi-subject fMRI studies are challenging due to the high variability of both brain anatomy and functional brain topographies across participants. An effective way of aggregating multi-subject fMRI data is to extract a shared representation that filters out unwanted variability among subjects. Some recent work has implemented probabilistic models to extract a shared representation in task fMRI. In the present work, we improve upon these models by incorporating temporal information in the common latent structures. We introduce a new model, Shared Gaussian Process Factor Analysis (S-GPFA), that discovers shared latent trajectories and subject-specific functional topographies, while modelling temporal correlation in fMRI data. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model in revealing ground truth latent structures using simulated data, and replicate experimental performance of time-segment matching and inter-subject similarity on the publicly available Raider and Sherlock datasets. We further test the utility of our model by analyzing its learned model parameters in the large multi-site SPINS dataset, on a social cognition task from participants with and without schizophrenia.

Understanding historical and cultural artifacts demands human expertise and advanced computational techniques, yet the process remains complex and time-intensive. While large multimodal models offer promising support, their evaluation and improvement require a standardized benchmark. To address this, we introduce TimeTravel, a benchmark of 10,250 expert-verified samples spanning 266 distinct cultures across 10 major historical regions. Designed for AI-driven analysis of manuscripts, artworks, inscriptions, and archaeological discoveries, TimeTravel provides a structured dataset and robust evaluation framework to assess AI models' capabilities in classification, interpretation, and historical comprehension. By integrating AI with historical research, TimeTravel fosters AI-powered tools for historians, archaeologists, researchers, and cultural tourists to extract valuable insights while ensuring technology contributes meaningfully to historical discovery and cultural heritage preservation. We evaluate contemporary AI models on TimeTravel, highlighting their strengths and identifying areas for improvement. Our goal is to establish AI as a reliable partner in preserving cultural heritage, ensuring that technological advancements contribute meaningfully to historical discovery. Our code is available at: https://github.com/mbzuai-oryx/TimeTravel.

Time-series forecasting is crucial for numerous real-world applications including weather prediction and financial market modeling. While temporal-domain methods remain prevalent, frequency-domain approaches can effectively capture multi-scale periodic patterns, reduce sequence dependencies, and naturally denoise signals. However, existing approaches typically train model components for all frequencies under a unified training objective, often leading to mismatched learning speeds: high-frequency components converge faster and risk overfitting, while low-frequency components underfit due to insufficient training time. To deal with this challenge, we propose BEAT (Balanced frEquency Adaptive Tuning), a novel framework that dynamically monitors the training status for each frequency and adaptively adjusts their gradient updates. By recognizing convergence, overfitting, or underfitting for each frequency, BEAT dynamically reallocates learning priorities, moderating gradients for rapid learners and increasing those for slower ones, alleviating the tension between competing objectives across frequencies and synchronizing the overall learning process. Extensive experiments on seven real-world datasets demonstrate that BEAT consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in data mining, driving rapid advancements across numerous industries. With the emergence of large models, time series foundation models (TSFMs) have exhibited remarkable generalization capabilities, such as zero-shot learning, through large-scale pre-training. Meanwhile, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) methods have been widely employed to enhance the performance of foundation models on unseen data, allowing models to access to external knowledge. In this paper, we introduce TimeRAF, a Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting model that enhance zero-shot time series forecasting through retrieval-augmented techniques. We develop customized time series knowledge bases that are tailored to the specific forecasting tasks. TimeRAF employs an end-to-end learnable retriever to extract valuable information from the knowledge base. Additionally, we propose Channel Prompting for knowledge integration, which effectively extracts relevant information from the retrieved knowledge along the channel dimension. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, showing significant improvement across various domains and datasets.

Robots are increasingly being used in dynamic environments like workplaces, hospitals, and homes. As a result, interactions with robots must be simple and intuitive, with robots perception adapting efficiently to human-induced changes. This paper presents a robot control architecture that addresses key challenges in human-robot interaction, with a particular focus on the dynamic creation and continuous update of the robot state representation. The architecture uses Large Language Models to integrate diverse information sources, including natural language commands, robotic skills representation, real-time dynamic semantic mapping of the perceived scene. This enables flexible and adaptive robotic behavior in complex, dynamic environments. Traditional robotic systems often rely on static, pre-programmed instructions and settings, limiting their adaptability to dynamic environments and real-time collaboration. In contrast, this architecture uses LLMs to interpret complex, high-level instructions and generate actionable plans that enhance human-robot collaboration. At its core, the system Perception Module generates and continuously updates a semantic scene graph using RGB-D sensor data, providing a detailed and structured representation of the environment. A particle filter is employed to ensure accurate object localization in dynamic, real-world settings. The Planner Module leverages this up-to-date semantic map to break down high-level tasks into sub-tasks and link them to robotic skills such as navigation, object manipulation (e.g., PICK and PLACE), and movement (e.g., GOTO). By combining real-time perception, state tracking, and LLM-driven communication and task planning, the architecture enhances adaptability, task efficiency, and human-robot collaboration in dynamic environments.

Time series foundation models have demonstrated impressive performance as zero-shot forecasters. However, achieving effectively unified training on time series remains an open challenge. Existing approaches introduce some level of model specialization to account for the highly heterogeneous nature of time series data. For instance, Moirai pursues unified training by employing multiple input/output projection layers, each tailored to handle time series at a specific frequency. Similarly, TimesFM maintains a frequency embedding dictionary for this purpose. We identify two major drawbacks to this human-imposed frequency-level model specialization: (1) Frequency is not a reliable indicator of the underlying patterns in time series. For example, time series with different frequencies can display similar patterns, while those with the same frequency may exhibit varied patterns. (2) Non-stationarity is an inherent property of real-world time series, leading to varied distributions even within a short context window of a single time series. Frequency-level specialization is too coarse-grained to capture this level of diversity. To address these limitations, this paper introduces Moirai-MoE, using a single input/output projection layer while delegating the modeling of diverse time series patterns to the sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers. With these designs, Moirai-MoE reduces reliance on human-defined heuristics and enables automatic token-level specialization. Extensive experiments on 39 datasets demonstrate the superiority of Moirai-MoE over existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios. Furthermore, this study conducts comprehensive model analyses to explore the inner workings of time series MoE foundation models and provides valuable insights for future research.

Time series foundation models excel in zero-shot forecasting, handling diverse tasks without explicit training. However, the advancement of these models has been hindered by the lack of comprehensive benchmarks. To address this gap, we introduce the General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation, GIFT-Eval, a pioneering benchmark aimed at promoting evaluation across diverse datasets. GIFT-Eval encompasses 28 datasets over 144,000 time series and 177 million data points, spanning seven domains, 10 frequencies, multivariate inputs, and prediction lengths ranging from short to long-term forecasts. To facilitate the effective pretraining and evaluation of foundation models, we also provide a non-leaking pretraining dataset containing approximately 230 billion data points. Additionally, we provide a comprehensive analysis of 17 baselines, which includes statistical models, deep learning models, and foundation models. We discuss each model in the context of various benchmark characteristics and offer a qualitative analysis that spans both deep learning and foundation models. We believe the insights from this analysis, along with access to this new standard zero-shot time series forecasting benchmark, will guide future developments in time series foundation models. The codebase, datasets, and a leaderboard showing all the results in detail will be available soon.

Time series foundation models have shown impressive performance on a variety of tasks, across a wide range of domains, even in zero-shot settings. However, most of these models are designed to handle short univariate time series as an input. This limits their practical use, especially in domains such as healthcare with copious amounts of long and multivariate data with strong temporal and intra-variate dependencies. Our study bridges this gap by cataloging and systematically comparing various context expansion techniques from both language and time series domains, and introducing a novel compressive memory mechanism to allow encoder-only TSFMs to effectively model intra-variate dependencies. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach by imbuing MOMENT, a recent family of multi-task time series foundation models, with the multivariate context.

Who is the US President? The answer changes depending on when the question is asked. While large language models (LLMs) are evaluated on various reasoning tasks, they often miss a crucial dimension: time. In real-world scenarios, the correctness of answers is frequently tied to temporal context. In this paper, we introduce a novel dataset designed to rigorously test LLMs' ability to handle time-sensitive facts. Our benchmark offers a systematic way to measure how well LLMs align their knowledge with the correct time context, filling a key gap in current evaluation methods and offering a valuable tool for improving real-world applicability in future models.

Recent advancements in the collection and analysis of sequential educational data have brought time series analysis to a pivotal position in educational research, highlighting its essential role in facilitating data-driven decision-making. However, there is a lack of comprehensive summaries that consolidate these advancements. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to provide a comprehensive review of time series analysis techniques specifically within the educational context. We begin by exploring the landscape of educational data analytics, categorizing various data sources and types relevant to education. We then review four prominent time series methods-forecasting, classification, clustering, and anomaly detection-illustrating their specific application points in educational settings. Subsequently, we present a range of educational scenarios and applications, focusing on how these methods are employed to address diverse educational tasks, which highlights the practical integration of multiple time series methods to solve complex educational problems. Finally, we conclude with a discussion on future directions, including personalized learning analytics, multimodal data fusion, and the role of large language models (LLMs) in educational time series. The contributions of this paper include a detailed taxonomy of educational data, a synthesis of time series techniques with specific educational applications, and a forward-looking perspective on emerging trends and future research opportunities in educational analysis. The related papers and resources are available and regularly updated at the project page.

A primary cost driver for training large models is wall-clock training time. We show that popular time estimates based on FLOPs are poor estimates, and construct a more accurate proxy based on memory copies. We show that with some simple accounting, we can estimate the training speed of a transformer model from its hyperparameters. Combined with a scaling law curve like Chinchilla, this lets us estimate the final loss of the model. We fit our estimate to real data with a linear regression, and apply the result to rewrite Chinchilla in terms of a model's estimated training time as opposed to the amount of training data. This gives an expression for the loss in terms of the model's hyperparameters alone. We show that this expression is accurate across a wide range of model hyperparameter values, enabling us to analytically make architectural decisions and train models more efficiently.

Time series data are ubiquitous across a wide range of real-world domains. While real-world time series analysis (TSA) requires human experts to integrate numerical series data with multimodal domain-specific knowledge, most existing TSA models rely solely on numerical data, overlooking the significance of information beyond numerical series. This oversight is due to the untapped potential of textual series data and the absence of a comprehensive, high-quality multimodal dataset. To overcome this obstacle, we introduce Time-MMD, the first multi-domain, multimodal time series dataset covering 9 primary data domains. Time-MMD ensures fine-grained modality alignment, eliminates data contamination, and provides high usability. Additionally, we develop MM-TSFlib, the first multimodal time-series forecasting (TSF) library, seamlessly pipelining multimodal TSF evaluations based on Time-MMD for in-depth analyses. Extensive experiments conducted on Time-MMD through MM-TSFlib demonstrate significant performance enhancements by extending unimodal TSF to multimodality, evidenced by over 15% mean squared error reduction in general, and up to 40% in domains with rich textual data. More importantly, our datasets and library revolutionize broader applications, impacts, research topics to advance TSA. The dataset and library are available at https://github.com/AdityaLab/Time-MMD and https://github.com/AdityaLab/MM-TSFlib.

Robust reinforcement learning is essential for deploying reinforcement learning algorithms in real-world scenarios where environmental uncertainty predominates. Traditional robust reinforcement learning often depends on rectangularity assumptions, where adverse probability measures of outcome states are assumed to be independent across different states and actions. This assumption, rarely fulfilled in practice, leads to overly conservative policies. To address this problem, we introduce a new time-constrained robust MDP (TC-RMDP) formulation that considers multifactorial, correlated, and time-dependent disturbances, thus more accurately reflecting real-world dynamics. This formulation goes beyond the conventional rectangularity paradigm, offering new perspectives and expanding the analytical framework for robust RL. We propose three distinct algorithms, each using varying levels of environmental information, and evaluate them extensively on continuous control benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that these algorithms yield an efficient tradeoff between performance and robustness, outperforming traditional deep robust RL methods in time-constrained environments while preserving robustness in classical benchmarks. This study revisits the prevailing assumptions in robust RL and opens new avenues for developing more practical and realistic RL applications.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capability in different tasks and are bringing transformative changes to many domains. However, keeping the knowledge in LLMs up-to-date remains a challenge once pretraining is complete. It is thus essential to design effective methods to both update obsolete knowledge and induce new knowledge into LLMs. Existing locate-and-edit knowledge editing (KE) method suffers from two limitations. First, the post-edit LLMs by such methods generally have poor capability in answering complex queries that require multi-hop reasoning. Second, the long run-time of such locate-and-edit methods to perform knowledge edits make it infeasible for large scale KE in practice. In this paper, we explore Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques as an alternative for KE. We curate a more comprehensive temporal KE dataset with both knowledge update and knowledge injection examples for KE performance benchmarking. We further probe the effect of fine-tuning on a range of layers in an LLM for the multi-hop QA task. We find that PEFT performs better than locate-and-edit techniques for time-sensitive knowledge edits.

Time series classification (TSC) on multivariate time series is a critical problem. We propose a novel multi-view approach integrating frequency-domain and time-domain features to provide complementary contexts for TSC. Our method fuses continuous wavelet transform spectral features with temporal convolutional or multilayer perceptron features. We leverage the Mamba state space model for efficient and scalable sequence modeling. We also introduce a novel tango scanning scheme to better model sequence relationships. Experiments on 10 standard benchmark datasets demonstrate our approach achieves an average 6.45% accuracy improvement over state-of-the-art TSC models.

In practical scenarios, time series forecasting necessitates not only accuracy but also efficiency. Consequently, the exploration of model architectures remains a perennially trending topic in research. To address these challenges, we propose a novel backbone architecture named Time Evidence Fusion Network (TEFN) from the perspective of information fusion. Specifically, we introduce the Basic Probability Assignment (BPA) Module based on evidence theory to capture the uncertainty of multivariate time series data from both channel and time dimensions. Additionally, we develop a novel multi-source information fusion method to effectively integrate the two distinct dimensions from BPA output, leading to improved forecasting accuracy. Lastly, we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate that TEFN achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art methods while maintaining significantly lower complexity and reduced training time. Also, our experiments show that TEFN exhibits high robustness, with minimal error fluctuations during hyperparameter selection. Furthermore, due to the fact that BPA is derived from fuzzy theory, TEFN offers a high degree of interpretability. Therefore, the proposed TEFN balances accuracy, efficiency, stability, and interpretability, making it a desirable solution for time series forecasting.

Time series have numerous applications in finance, healthcare, IoT, and smart city. In many of these applications, time series typically contain personal data, so privacy infringement may occur if they are released directly to the public. Recently, local differential privacy (LDP) has emerged as the state-of-the-art approach to protecting data privacy. However, existing works on LDP-based collections cannot preserve the shape of time series. A recent work, PatternLDP, attempts to address this problem, but it can only protect a finite group of elements in a time series due to {\omega}-event level privacy guarantee. In this paper, we propose PrivShape, a trie-based mechanism under user-level LDP to protect all elements. PrivShape first transforms a time series to reduce its length, and then adopts trie-expansion and two-level refinement to improve utility. By extensive experiments on real-world datasets, we demonstrate that PrivShape outperforms PatternLDP when adapted for offline use, and can effectively extract frequent shapes.

This study discusses the critical issues of Virtual Try-On in contemporary e-commerce and the prospective metaverse, emphasizing the challenges of preserving intricate texture details and distinctive features of the target person and the clothes in various scenarios, such as clothing texture and identity characteristics like tattoos or accessories. In addition to the fidelity of the synthesized images, the efficiency of the synthesis process presents a significant hurdle. Various existing approaches are explored, highlighting the limitations and unresolved aspects, e.g., identity information omission, uncontrollable artifacts, and low synthesis speed. It then proposes a novel diffusion-based solution that addresses garment texture preservation and user identity retention during virtual try-on. The proposed network comprises two primary modules - a warping module aligning clothing with individual features and a try-on module refining the attire and generating missing parts integrated with a mask-aware post-processing technique ensuring the integrity of the individual's identity. It demonstrates impressive results, surpassing the state-of-the-art in speed by nearly 20 times during inference, with superior fidelity in qualitative assessments. Quantitative evaluations confirm comparable performance with the recent SOTA method on the VITON-HD and Dresscode datasets.

Time series analysis is vital for numerous applications, and transformers have become increasingly prominent in this domain. Leading methods customize the transformer architecture from NLP and CV, utilizing a patching technique to convert continuous signals into segments. Yet, time series data are uniquely challenging due to significant distribution shifts and intrinsic noise levels. To address these two challenges,we introduce the Sparse Vector Quantized FFN-Free Transformer (Sparse-VQ). Our methodology capitalizes on a sparse vector quantization technique coupled with Reverse Instance Normalization (RevIN) to reduce noise impact and capture sufficient statistics for forecasting, serving as an alternative to the Feed-Forward layer (FFN) in the transformer architecture. Our FFN-free approach trims the parameter count, enhancing computational efficiency and reducing overfitting. Through evaluations across ten benchmark datasets, including the newly introduced CAISO dataset, Sparse-VQ surpasses leading models with a 7.84% and 4.17% decrease in MAE for univariate and multivariate time series forecasting, respectively. Moreover, it can be seamlessly integrated with existing transformer-based models to elevate their performance.

Time series forecasting is an important and forefront task in many real-world applications. However, most of time series forecasting techniques assume that the training data is clean without anomalies. This assumption is unrealistic since the collected time series data can be contaminated in practice. The forecasting model will be inferior if it is directly trained by time series with anomalies. Thus it is essential to develop methods to automatically learn a robust forecasting model from the contaminated data. In this paper, we first statistically define three types of anomalies, then theoretically and experimentally analyze the loss robustness and sample robustness when these anomalies exist. Based on our analyses, we propose a simple and efficient algorithm to learn a robust forecasting model. Extensive experiments show that our method is highly robust and outperforms all existing approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/haochenglouis/RobustTSF.

Change detection, a prominent research area in remote sensing, is pivotal in observing and analyzing surface transformations. Despite significant advancements achieved through deep learning-based methods, executing high-precision change detection in spatio-temporally complex remote sensing scenarios still presents a substantial challenge. The recent emergence of foundation models, with their powerful universality and generalization capabilities, offers potential solutions. However, bridging the gap of data and tasks remains a significant obstacle. In this paper, we introduce Time Travelling Pixels (TTP), a novel approach that integrates the latent knowledge of the SAM foundation model into change detection. This method effectively addresses the domain shift in general knowledge transfer and the challenge of expressing homogeneous and heterogeneous characteristics of multi-temporal images. The state-of-the-art results obtained on the LEVIR-CD underscore the efficacy of the TTP. The Code is available at https://kychen.me/TTP.

Time series domain adaptation stands as a pivotal and intricate challenge with diverse applications, including but not limited to human activity recognition, sleep stage classification, and machine fault diagnosis. Despite the numerous domain adaptation techniques proposed to tackle this complex problem, they primarily focus on domain adaptation from a single source domain. Yet, it is more crucial to investigate domain adaptation from multiple domains due to the potential for greater improvements. To address this, three important challenges need to be overcome: 1). The lack of exploration to utilize domain-specific information for domain adaptation, 2). The difficulty to learn domain-specific information that changes over time, and 3). The difficulty to evaluate learned domain-specific information. In order to tackle these challenges simultaneously, in this paper, we introduce PrOmpt-based domaiN Discrimination (POND), the first framework to utilize prompts for time series domain adaptation. Specifically, to address Challenge 1, we extend the idea of prompt tuning to time series analysis and learn prompts to capture common and domain-specific information from all source domains. To handle Challenge 2, we introduce a conditional module for each source domain to generate prompts from time series input data. For Challenge 3, we propose two criteria to select good prompts, which are used to choose the most suitable source domain for domain adaptation. The efficacy and robustness of our proposed POND model are extensively validated through experiments across 50 scenarios encompassing four datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed POND model outperforms all state-of-the-art comparison methods by up to 66% on the F1-score.

Time-series causal discovery (TSCD) is a fundamental problem of machine learning. However, existing synthetic datasets cannot properly evaluate or predict the algorithms' performance on real data. This study introduces the CausalTime pipeline to generate time-series that highly resemble the real data and with ground truth causal graphs for quantitative performance evaluation. The pipeline starts from real observations in a specific scenario and produces a matching benchmark dataset. Firstly, we harness deep neural networks along with normalizing flow to accurately capture realistic dynamics. Secondly, we extract hypothesized causal graphs by performing importance analysis on the neural network or leveraging prior knowledge. Thirdly, we derive the ground truth causal graphs by splitting the causal model into causal term, residual term, and noise term. Lastly, using the fitted network and the derived causal graph, we generate corresponding versatile time-series proper for algorithm assessment. In the experiments, we validate the fidelity of the generated data through qualitative and quantitative experiments, followed by a benchmarking of existing TSCD algorithms using these generated datasets. CausalTime offers a feasible solution to evaluating TSCD algorithms in real applications and can be generalized to a wide range of fields. For easy use of the proposed approach, we also provide a user-friendly website, hosted on www.causaltime.cc.

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks, models for time series forecasting are often specialized, necessitating distinct designs for different tasks and applications. While pre-trained foundation models have made impressive strides in NLP and CV, their development in time series domains has been constrained by data sparsity. Recent studies have revealed that large language models (LLMs) possess robust pattern recognition and reasoning abilities over complex sequences of tokens. However, the challenge remains in effectively aligning the modalities of time series data and natural language to leverage these capabilities. In this work, we present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose LLMs for general time series forecasting with the backbone language models kept intact. We begin by reprogramming the input time series with text prototypes before feeding it into the frozen LLM to align the two modalities. To augment the LLM's ability to reason with time series data, we propose Prompt-as-Prefix (PaP), which enriches the input context and directs the transformation of reprogrammed input patches. The transformed time series patches from the LLM are finally projected to obtain the forecasts. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Time-LLM is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models. Moreover, Time-LLM excels in both few-shot and zero-shot learning scenarios.

Data contamination, i.e., the presence of test data from downstream tasks in the training data of large language models (LLMs), is a potential major issue in measuring LLMs' real effectiveness on other tasks. We propose a straightforward yet effective method for identifying data contamination within LLMs. At its core, our approach starts by identifying potential contamination at the instance level; using this information, our approach then assesses wider contamination at the partition level. To estimate contamination of individual instances, we employ "guided instruction:" a prompt consisting of the dataset name, partition type, and the random-length initial segment of a reference instance, asking the LLM to complete it. An instance is flagged as contaminated if the LLM's output either exactly or nearly matches the latter segment of the reference. To understand if an entire partition is contaminated, we propose two ideas. The first idea marks a dataset partition as contaminated if the average overlap score with the reference instances (as measured by ROUGE-L or BLEURT) is statistically significantly better with the completions from guided instruction compared to a "general instruction" that does not include the dataset and partition name. The second idea marks a dataset partition as contaminated if a classifier based on GPT-4 with few-shot in-context learning prompt marks multiple generated completions as exact/near-exact matches of the corresponding reference instances. Our best method achieves an accuracy between 92% and 100% in detecting if an LLM is contaminated with seven datasets, containing train and test/validation partitions, when contrasted with manual evaluation by human experts. Further, our findings indicate that GPT-4 is contaminated with AG News, WNLI, and XSum datasets.

Time series analysis is a fundamental task in various application domains, and deep learning approaches have demonstrated remarkable performance in this area. However, many real-world time series data exhibit significant periodic or quasi-periodic dynamics that are often not adequately captured by existing deep learning-based solutions. This results in an incomplete representation of the underlying dynamic behaviors of interest. To address this gap, we propose an unsupervised method called Floss that automatically regularizes learned representations in the frequency domain. The Floss method first automatically detects major periodicities from the time series. It then employs periodic shift and spectral density similarity measures to learn meaningful representations with periodic consistency. In addition, Floss can be easily incorporated into both supervised, semi-supervised, and unsupervised learning frameworks. We conduct extensive experiments on common time series classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection tasks to demonstrate the effectiveness of Floss. We incorporate Floss into several representative deep learning solutions to justify our design choices and demonstrate that it is capable of automatically discovering periodic dynamics and improving state-of-the-art deep learning models.

Time series are the primary data type used to record dynamic system measurements and generated in great volume by both physical sensors and online processes (virtual sensors). Time series analytics is therefore crucial to unlocking the wealth of information implicit in available data. With the recent advancements in graph neural networks (GNNs), there has been a surge in GNN-based approaches for time series analysis. These approaches can explicitly model inter-temporal and inter-variable relationships, which traditional and other deep neural network-based methods struggle to do. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of graph neural networks for time series analysis (GNN4TS), encompassing four fundamental dimensions: forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. Our aim is to guide designers and practitioners to understand, build applications, and advance research of GNN4TS. At first, we provide a comprehensive task-oriented taxonomy of GNN4TS. Then, we present and discuss representative research works and introduce mainstream applications of GNN4TS. A comprehensive discussion of potential future research directions completes the survey. This survey, for the first time, brings together a vast array of knowledge on GNN-based time series research, highlighting foundations, practical applications, and opportunities of graph neural networks for time series analysis.

The online knapsack problem is a classic problem in the field of online algorithms. Its canonical version asks how to pack items of different values and weights arriving online into a capacity-limited knapsack so as to maximize the total value of the admitted items. Although optimal competitive algorithms are known for this problem, they may be fundamentally unfair, i.e., individual items may be treated inequitably in different ways. Inspired by recent attention to fairness in online settings, we develop a natural and practically-relevant notion of time fairness for the online knapsack problem, and show that the existing optimal algorithms perform poorly under this metric. We propose a parameterized deterministic algorithm where the parameter precisely captures the Pareto-optimal trade-off between fairness and competitiveness. We show that randomization is theoretically powerful enough to be simultaneously competitive and fair; however, it does not work well in practice, using trace-driven experiments. To further improve the trade-off between fairness and competitiveness, we develop a fair, robust (competitive), and consistent learning-augmented algorithm with substantial performance improvement in trace-driven experiments.

The recovery of time-varying graph signals is a fundamental problem with numerous applications in sensor networks and forecasting in time series. Effectively capturing the spatio-temporal information in these signals is essential for the downstream tasks. Previous studies have used the smoothness of the temporal differences of such graph signals as an initial assumption. Nevertheless, this smoothness assumption could result in a degradation of performance in the corresponding application when the prior does not hold. In this work, we relax the requirement of this hypothesis by including a learning module. We propose a Time Graph Neural Network (TimeGNN) for the recovery of time-varying graph signals. Our algorithm uses an encoder-decoder architecture with a specialized loss composed of a mean squared error function and a Sobolev smoothness operator.TimeGNN shows competitive performance against previous methods in real datasets.

Time series forecasting has been a widely explored task of great importance in many applications. However, it is common that real-world time series data are recorded in a short time period, which results in a big gap between the deep model and the limited and noisy time series. In this work, we propose to address the time series forecasting problem with generative modeling and propose a bidirectional variational auto-encoder (BVAE) equipped with diffusion, denoise, and disentanglement, namely D3VAE. Specifically, a coupled diffusion probabilistic model is proposed to augment the time series data without increasing the aleatoric uncertainty and implement a more tractable inference process with BVAE. To ensure the generated series move toward the true target, we further propose to adapt and integrate the multiscale denoising score matching into the diffusion process for time series forecasting. In addition, to enhance the interpretability and stability of the prediction, we treat the latent variable in a multivariate manner and disentangle them on top of minimizing total correlation. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that D3VAE outperforms competitive algorithms with remarkable margins. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/PaddlePaddle/PaddleSpatial/tree/main/research/D3VAE.

Time Series Forecasting has been an active area of research due to its many applications ranging from network usage prediction, resource allocation, anomaly detection, and predictive maintenance. Numerous publications published in the last five years have proposed diverse sets of objective loss functions to address cases such as biased data, long-term forecasting, multicollinear features, etc. In this paper, we have summarized 14 well-known regression loss functions commonly used for time series forecasting and listed out the circumstances where their application can aid in faster and better model convergence. We have also demonstrated how certain categories of loss functions perform well across all data sets and can be considered as a baseline objective function in circumstances where the distribution of the data is unknown. Our code is available at GitHub: https://github.com/aryan-jadon/Regression-Loss-Functions-in-Time-Series-Forecasting-Tensorflow.

Time series analysis is of immense importance in extensive applications, such as weather forecasting, anomaly detection, and action recognition. This paper focuses on temporal variation modeling, which is the common key problem of extensive analysis tasks. Previous methods attempt to accomplish this directly from the 1D time series, which is extremely challenging due to the intricate temporal patterns. Based on the observation of multi-periodicity in time series, we ravel out the complex temporal variations into the multiple intraperiod- and interperiod-variations. To tackle the limitations of 1D time series in representation capability, we extend the analysis of temporal variations into the 2D space by transforming the 1D time series into a set of 2D tensors based on multiple periods. This transformation can embed the intraperiod- and interperiod-variations into the columns and rows of the 2D tensors respectively, making the 2D-variations to be easily modeled by 2D kernels. Technically, we propose the TimesNet with TimesBlock as a task-general backbone for time series analysis. TimesBlock can discover the multi-periodicity adaptively and extract the complex temporal variations from transformed 2D tensors by a parameter-efficient inception block. Our proposed TimesNet achieves consistent state-of-the-art in five mainstream time series analysis tasks, including short- and long-term forecasting, imputation, classification, and anomaly detection. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/TimesNet.

Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods to address it. This paper addresses situations when data evolves gradually. We introduce a time-varying propensity score that can detect gradual shifts in the distribution of data which allows us to selectively sample past data to update the model -- not just similar data from the past like that of a standard propensity score but also data that evolved in a similar fashion in the past. The time-varying propensity score is quite general: we demonstrate different ways of implementing it and evaluate it on a variety of problems ranging from supervised learning (e.g., image classification problems) where data undergoes a sequence of gradual shifts, to reinforcement learning tasks (e.g., robotic manipulation and continuous control) where data shifts as the policy or the task changes.

Time-domain Transformer neural networks have proven their superiority in speech separation tasks. However, these models usually have a large number of network parameters, thus often encountering the problem of GPU memory explosion. In this paper, we proposed Tiny-Sepformer, a tiny version of Transformer network for speech separation. We present two techniques to reduce the model parameters and memory consumption: (1) Convolution-Attention (CA) block, spliting the vanilla Transformer to two paths, multi-head attention and 1D depthwise separable convolution, (2) parameter sharing, sharing the layer parameters within the CA block. In our experiments, Tiny-Sepformer could greatly reduce the model size, and achieves comparable separation performance with vanilla Sepformer on WSJ0-2/3Mix datasets.

We establish, in general terms, the conditions to be satisfied by a time-fractional approach formulation of the Poisson-Nernst-Planck model in order to guarantee that the total current across the sample be solenoidal, as required by the Maxwell equation. Only in this case the electric impedance of a cell can be determined as the ratio between the applied difference of potential and the current across the cell. We show that in the case of anomalous diffusion, the model predicts for the electric impedance of the cell a constant phase element behaviour in the low frequency region. In the parametric curve of the reactance versus the resistance, the slope coincides with the order of the fractional time derivative.

Time-series representation learning is a fundamental task for time-series analysis. While significant progress has been made to achieve accurate representations for downstream applications, the learned representations often lack interpretability and do not expose semantic meanings. Different from previous efforts on the entangled feature space, we aim to extract the semantic-rich temporal correlations in the latent interpretable factorized representation of the data. Motivated by the success of disentangled representation learning in computer vision, we study the possibility of learning semantic-rich time-series representations, which remains unexplored due to three main challenges: 1) sequential data structure introduces complex temporal correlations and makes the latent representations hard to interpret, 2) sequential models suffer from KL vanishing problem, and 3) interpretable semantic concepts for time-series often rely on multiple factors instead of individuals. To bridge the gap, we propose Disentangle Time Series (DTS), a novel disentanglement enhancement framework for sequential data. Specifically, to generate hierarchical semantic concepts as the interpretable and disentangled representation of time-series, DTS introduces multi-level disentanglement strategies by covering both individual latent factors and group semantic segments. We further theoretically show how to alleviate the KL vanishing problem: DTS introduces a mutual information maximization term, while preserving a heavier penalty on the total correlation and the dimension-wise KL to keep the disentanglement property. Experimental results on various real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that the representations learned by DTS achieve superior performance in downstream applications, with high interpretability of semantic concepts.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Time series research has gathered lots of interests in the last decade, especially for Time Series Classification (TSC) and Time Series Forecasting (TSF). Research in TSC has greatly benefited from the University of California Riverside and University of East Anglia (UCR/UEA) Time Series Archives. On the other hand, the advancement in Time Series Forecasting relies on time series forecasting competitions such as the Makridakis competitions, NN3 and NN5 Neural Network competitions, and a few Kaggle competitions. Each year, thousands of papers proposing new algorithms for TSC and TSF have utilized these benchmarking archives. These algorithms are designed for these specific problems, but may not be useful for tasks such as predicting the heart rate of a person using photoplethysmogram (PPG) and accelerometer data. We refer to this problem as Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER), where we are interested in a more general methodology of predicting a single continuous value, from univariate or multivariate time series. This prediction can be from the same time series or not directly related to the predictor time series and does not necessarily need to be a future value or depend heavily on recent values. To the best of our knowledge, research into TSER has received much less attention in the time series research community and there are no models developed for general time series extrinsic regression problems. Most models are developed for a specific problem. Therefore, we aim to motivate and support the research into TSER by introducing the first TSER benchmarking archive. This archive contains 19 datasets from different domains, with varying number of dimensions, unequal length dimensions, and missing values. In this paper, we introduce the datasets in this archive and did an initial benchmark on existing models.

Multi-horizon forecasting problems often contain a complex mix of inputs -- including static (i.e. time-invariant) covariates, known future inputs, and other exogenous time series that are only observed historically -- without any prior information on how they interact with the target. While several deep learning models have been proposed for multi-step prediction, they typically comprise black-box models which do not account for the full range of inputs present in common scenarios. In this paper, we introduce the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) -- a novel attention-based architecture which combines high-performance multi-horizon forecasting with interpretable insights into temporal dynamics. To learn temporal relationships at different scales, the TFT utilizes recurrent layers for local processing and interpretable self-attention layers for learning long-term dependencies. The TFT also uses specialized components for the judicious selection of relevant features and a series of gating layers to suppress unnecessary components, enabling high performance in a wide range of regimes. On a variety of real-world datasets, we demonstrate significant performance improvements over existing benchmarks, and showcase three practical interpretability use-cases of TFT.

Graphical emoji are ubiquitous in modern-day online conversations. So is a single thumbs-up emoji able to signify an agreement, without any words. We argue that the current state-of-the-art systems are ill-equipped to correctly interpret these emoji, especially in a conversational context. However, in a casual context, the benefits might be high: a better understanding of users' utterances and more natural, emoji-rich responses. With this in mind, we modify BERT to fully support emoji, both from the Unicode Standard and custom emoji. This modified BERT is then trained on a corpus of question-answer (QA) tuples with a high number of emoji, where we're able to increase the 1-of-100 accuracy from 12.7% for the current state-of-the-art to 17.8% for our model with emoji support.

Time-frequency (TF) representations provide powerful and intuitive features for the analysis of time series such as audio. But still, generative modeling of audio in the TF domain is a subtle matter. Consequently, neural audio synthesis widely relies on directly modeling the waveform and previous attempts at unconditionally synthesizing audio from neurally generated invertible TF features still struggle to produce audio at satisfying quality. In this article, focusing on the short-time Fourier transform, we discuss the challenges that arise in audio synthesis based on generated invertible TF features and how to overcome them. We demonstrate the potential of deliberate generative TF modeling by training a generative adversarial network (GAN) on short-time Fourier features. We show that by applying our guidelines, our TF-based network was able to outperform a state-of-the-art GAN generating waveforms directly, despite the similar architecture in the two networks.

Time series analysis and forecasting of stock market prices has been a very active area of research over the last two decades. Availability of extremely fast and parallel architecture of computing and sophisticated algorithms has made it possible to extract, store, process and analyze high volume stock market time series data very efficiently. In this paper, we have used time series data of the two sectors of the Indian economy: Information Technology and Capital Goods for the period January 2009 till April 2016 and have studied the relationships of these two time series with the time series of DJIA index, NIFTY index and the US Dollar to Indian Rupee exchange rate. We establish by graphical and statistical tests that while the IT sector of India has a strong association with DJIA index and the Dollar to Rupee exchange rate, the Indian CG sector exhibits a strong association with the NIFTY index. We contend that these observations corroborate our hypotheses that the Indian IT sector is strongly coupled with the world economy whereas the CG sector of India reflects internal economic growth of India. We also present several models of regression between the time series which exhibit strong association among them. The effectiveness of these models have been demonstrated by very low values of their forecasting errors.

We propose a simple but strong baseline for time series classification from scratch with deep neural networks. Our proposed baseline models are pure end-to-end without any heavy preprocessing on the raw data or feature crafting. The proposed Fully Convolutional Network (FCN) achieves premium performance to other state-of-the-art approaches and our exploration of the very deep neural networks with the ResNet structure is also competitive. The global average pooling in our convolutional model enables the exploitation of the Class Activation Map (CAM) to find out the contributing region in the raw data for the specific labels. Our models provides a simple choice for the real world application and a good starting point for the future research. An overall analysis is provided to discuss the generalization capability of our models, learned features, network structures and the classification semantics.

Learning-based approaches to monocular motion capture have recently shown promising results by learning to regress in a data-driven manner. However, due to the challenges in data collection and network designs, it remains challenging for existing solutions to achieve real-time full-body capture while being accurate in world space. In this work, we contribute a sequential proxy-to-motion learning scheme together with a proxy dataset of 2D skeleton sequences and 3D rotational motions in world space. Such proxy data enables us to build a learning-based network with accurate full-body supervision while also mitigating the generalization issues. For more accurate and physically plausible predictions, a contact-aware neural motion descent module is proposed in our network so that it can be aware of foot-ground contact and motion misalignment with the proxy observations. Additionally, we share the body-hand context information in our network for more compatible wrist poses recovery with the full-body model. With the proposed learning-based solution, we demonstrate the first real-time monocular full-body capture system with plausible foot-ground contact in world space. More video results can be found at our project page: https://liuyebin.com/proxycap.

Prior work has established test-time training (TTT) as a general framework to further improve a trained model at test time. Before making a prediction on each test instance, the model is trained on the same instance using a self-supervised task, such as image reconstruction with masked autoencoders. We extend TTT to the streaming setting, where multiple test instances - video frames in our case - arrive in temporal order. Our extension is online TTT: The current model is initialized from the previous model, then trained on the current frame and a small window of frames immediately before. Online TTT significantly outperforms the fixed-model baseline for four tasks, on three real-world datasets. The relative improvement is 45% and 66% for instance and panoptic segmentation. Surprisingly, online TTT also outperforms its offline variant that accesses more information, training on all frames from the entire test video regardless of temporal order. This differs from previous findings using synthetic videos. We conceptualize locality as the advantage of online over offline TTT. We analyze the role of locality with ablations and a theory based on bias-variance trade-off.

Existing methods for the 4D reconstruction of general, non-rigidly deforming objects focus on novel-view synthesis and neglect correspondences. However, time consistency enables advanced downstream tasks like 3D editing, motion analysis, or virtual-asset creation. We propose SceNeRFlow to reconstruct a general, non-rigid scene in a time-consistent manner. Our dynamic-NeRF method takes multi-view RGB videos and background images from static cameras with known camera parameters as input. It then reconstructs the deformations of an estimated canonical model of the geometry and appearance in an online fashion. Since this canonical model is time-invariant, we obtain correspondences even for long-term, long-range motions. We employ neural scene representations to parametrize the components of our method. Like prior dynamic-NeRF methods, we use a backwards deformation model. We find non-trivial adaptations of this model necessary to handle larger motions: We decompose the deformations into a strongly regularized coarse component and a weakly regularized fine component, where the coarse component also extends the deformation field into the space surrounding the object, which enables tracking over time. We show experimentally that, unlike prior work that only handles small motion, our method enables the reconstruction of studio-scale motions.

Large-scale, weakly-supervised speech recognition models, such as Whisper, have demonstrated impressive results on speech recognition across domains and languages. However, their application to long audio transcription via buffered or sliding window approaches is prone to drifting, hallucination & repetition; and prohibits batched transcription due to their sequential nature. Further, timestamps corresponding each utterance are prone to inaccuracies and word-level timestamps are not available out-of-the-box. To overcome these challenges, we present WhisperX, a time-accurate speech recognition system with word-level timestamps utilising voice activity detection and forced phoneme alignment. In doing so, we demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on long-form transcription and word segmentation benchmarks. Additionally, we show that pre-segmenting audio with our proposed VAD Cut & Merge strategy improves transcription quality and enables a twelve-fold transcription speedup via batched inference.

Range anxiety is a major concern of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) users or potential users. Previous work has explored the influential factors of distance-related range anxiety. However, time-related range anxiety has rarely been explored. The time cost when charging or waiting to charge the BEVs can negatively impact BEV users' experience. As a preliminary attempt, this survey study investigated time-related anxiety by observing BEV users' charging decisions in scenarios when both battery level and time cost are of concern. We collected and analyzed responses from 217 BEV users in mainland China. The results revealed that time-related anxiety exists and could affect users' charging decisions. Further, users' charging decisions can be a result of the trade-off between distance-related and time-related anxiety, and can be moderated by several external factors (e.g., regions and individual differences). The findings can support the optimization of charge station distribution and EV charge recommendation algorithms.

Large language models excel at a variety of language tasks when prompted with examples or instructions. Yet controlling these models through prompting alone is limited. Tailoring language models through fine-tuning (e.g., via reinforcement learning) can be effective, but it is expensive and requires model access. We propose Inference-time Policy Adapters (IPA), which efficiently tailors a language model such as GPT-3 without fine-tuning it. IPA guides a large base model during decoding time through a lightweight policy adaptor trained to optimize an arbitrary user objective with reinforcement learning. On five challenging text generation tasks, such as toxicity reduction and open-domain generation, IPA consistently brings significant improvements over off-the-shelf language models. It outperforms competitive baseline methods, sometimes even including expensive fine-tuning. In particular, tailoring GPT-2 with IPA can outperform GPT-3, while tailoring GPT- 3 with IPA brings a major performance boost over GPT-3 (and sometimes even over GPT-4). Our promising results highlight the potential of IPA as a lightweight alternative to tailoring extreme-scale language models.

We present a complete system for real-time rendering of scenes with complex appearance previously reserved for offline use. This is achieved with a combination of algorithmic and system level innovations. Our appearance model utilizes learned hierarchical textures that are interpreted using neural decoders, which produce reflectance values and importance-sampled directions. To best utilize the modeling capacity of the decoders, we equip the decoders with two graphics priors. The first prior -- transformation of directions into learned shading frames -- facilitates accurate reconstruction of mesoscale effects. The second prior -- a microfacet sampling distribution -- allows the neural decoder to perform importance sampling efficiently. The resulting appearance model supports anisotropic sampling and level-of-detail rendering, and allows baking deeply layered material graphs into a compact unified neural representation. By exposing hardware accelerated tensor operations to ray tracing shaders, we show that it is possible to inline and execute the neural decoders efficiently inside a real-time path tracer. We analyze scalability with increasing number of neural materials and propose to improve performance using code optimized for coherent and divergent execution. Our neural material shaders can be over an order of magnitude faster than non-neural layered materials. This opens up the door for using film-quality visuals in real-time applications such as games and live previews.

Automatic speech recognition systems have created exciting possibilities for applications, however they also enable opportunities for systematic eavesdropping. We propose a method to camouflage a person's voice over-the-air from these systems without inconveniencing the conversation between people in the room. Standard adversarial attacks are not effective in real-time streaming situations because the characteristics of the signal will have changed by the time the attack is executed. We introduce predictive attacks, which achieve real-time performance by forecasting the attack that will be the most effective in the future. Under real-time constraints, our method jams the established speech recognition system DeepSpeech 3.9x more than baselines as measured through word error rate, and 6.6x more as measured through character error rate. We furthermore demonstrate our approach is practically effective in realistic environments over physical distances.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) aims to adapt a pre-trained model to the target domain in a batch-by-batch manner during inference. While label distributions often exhibit imbalances in real-world scenarios, most previous TTA approaches typically assume that both source and target domain datasets have balanced label distribution. Due to the fact that certain classes appear more frequently in certain domains (e.g., buildings in cities, trees in forests), it is natural that the label distribution shifts as the domain changes. However, we discover that the majority of existing TTA methods fail to address the coexistence of covariate and label shifts. To tackle this challenge, we propose a novel label shift adapter that can be incorporated into existing TTA approaches to deal with label shifts during the TTA process effectively. Specifically, we estimate the label distribution of the target domain to feed it into the label shift adapter. Subsequently, the label shift adapter produces optimal parameters for the target label distribution. By predicting only the parameters for a part of the pre-trained source model, our approach is computationally efficient and can be easily applied, regardless of the model architectures. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that integrating our strategy with TTA approaches leads to substantial performance improvements under the joint presence of label and covariate shifts.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods, which generally rely on the model's predictions (e.g., entropy minimization) to adapt the source pretrained model to the unlabeled target domain, suffer from noisy signals originating from 1) incorrect or 2) open-set predictions. Long-term stable adaptation is hampered by such noisy signals, so training models without such error accumulation is crucial for practical TTA. To address these issues, including open-set TTA, we propose a simple yet effective sample selection method inspired by the following crucial empirical finding. While entropy minimization compels the model to increase the probability of its predicted label (i.e., confidence values), we found that noisy samples rather show decreased confidence values. To be more specific, entropy minimization attempts to raise the confidence values of an individual sample's prediction, but individual confidence values may rise or fall due to the influence of signals from numerous other predictions (i.e., wisdom of crowds). Due to this fact, noisy signals misaligned with such 'wisdom of crowds', generally found in the correct signals, fail to raise the individual confidence values of wrong samples, despite attempts to increase them. Based on such findings, we filter out the samples whose confidence values are lower in the adapted model than in the original model, as they are likely to be noisy. Our method is widely applicable to existing TTA methods and improves their long-term adaptation performance in both image classification (e.g., 49.4% reduced error rates with TENT) and semantic segmentation (e.g., 11.7% gain in mIoU with TENT).

While the design of blind image quality assessment (IQA) algorithms has improved significantly, the distribution shift between the training and testing scenarios often leads to a poor performance of these methods at inference time. This motivates the study of test time adaptation (TTA) techniques to improve their performance at inference time. Existing auxiliary tasks and loss functions used for TTA may not be relevant for quality-aware adaptation of the pre-trained model. In this work, we introduce two novel quality-relevant auxiliary tasks at the batch and sample levels to enable TTA for blind IQA. In particular, we introduce a group contrastive loss at the batch level and a relative rank loss at the sample level to make the model quality aware and adapt to the target data. Our experiments reveal that even using a small batch of images from the test distribution helps achieve significant improvement in performance by updating the batch normalization statistics of the source model.

The classification of fifth-generation New-Radio (5G-NR) mobile network traffic is an emerging topic in the field of telecommunications. It can be utilized for quality of service (QoS) management and dynamic resource allocation. However, traditional approaches such as Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) can not be directly applied to encrypted data flows. Therefore, new real-time encrypted traffic classification algorithms need to be investigated to handle dynamic transmission. In this study, we examine the real-time encrypted 5G Non-Standalone (NSA) application-level traffic classification using physical channel records. Due to the vastness of their features, decision-tree-based gradient boosting algorithms are a viable approach for classification. We generate a noise-limited 5G NSA trace dataset with traffic from multiple applications. We develop a new pipeline to convert sequences of physical channel records into numerical vectors. A set of machine learning models are tested, and we propose our solution based on Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) due to its advantages in fast parallel training and low computational burden in practical scenarios. Our experiments demonstrate that our algorithm can achieve 95% accuracy on the classification task with a state-of-the-art response time as quick as 10ms.

Energy time-series analysis describes the process of analyzing past energy observations and possibly external factors so as to predict the future. Different tasks are involved in the general field of energy time-series analysis and forecasting, with electric load demand forecasting, personalized energy consumption forecasting, as well as renewable energy generation forecasting being among the most common ones. Following the exceptional performance of Deep Learning (DL) in a broad area of vision tasks, DL models have successfully been utilized in time-series forecasting tasks. This paper aims to provide insight into various DL methods geared towards improving the performance in energy time-series forecasting tasks, with special emphasis in Greek Energy Market, and equip the reader with the necessary knowledge to apply these methods in practice.

Interpretable time series prediction is crucial for safety-critical areas such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Most existing methods focus on interpreting predictions by assigning important scores to segments of time series. In this paper, we take a different and more challenging route and aim at developing a self-interpretable model, dubbed Counterfactual Time Series (CounTS), which generates counterfactual and actionable explanations for time series predictions. Specifically, we formalize the problem of time series counterfactual explanations, establish associated evaluation protocols, and propose a variational Bayesian deep learning model equipped with counterfactual inference capability of time series abduction, action, and prediction. Compared with state-of-the-art baselines, our self-interpretable model can generate better counterfactual explanations while maintaining comparable prediction accuracy.

In domain generalization (DG), the target domain is unknown when the model is being trained, and the trained model should successfully work on an arbitrary (and possibly unseen) target domain during inference. This is a difficult problem, and despite active studies in recent years, it remains a great challenge. In this paper, we take a simple yet effective approach to tackle this issue. We propose test-time style shifting, which shifts the style of the test sample (that has a large style gap with the source domains) to the nearest source domain that the model is already familiar with, before making the prediction. This strategy enables the model to handle any target domains with arbitrary style statistics, without additional model update at test-time. Additionally, we propose style balancing, which provides a great platform for maximizing the advantage of test-time style shifting by handling the DG-specific imbalance issues. The proposed ideas are easy to implement and successfully work in conjunction with various other DG schemes. Experimental results on different datasets show the effectiveness of our methods.

Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) has recently emerged as a promising approach for tackling the robustness challenge under distribution shifts. However, the lack of consistent settings and systematic studies in prior literature hinders thorough assessments of existing methods. To address this issue, we present TTAB, a test-time adaptation benchmark that encompasses ten state-of-the-art algorithms, a diverse array of distribution shifts, and two evaluation protocols. Through extensive experiments, our benchmark reveals three common pitfalls in prior efforts. First, selecting appropriate hyper-parameters, especially for model selection, is exceedingly difficult due to online batch dependency. Second, the effectiveness of TTA varies greatly depending on the quality and properties of the model being adapted. Third, even under optimal algorithmic conditions, none of the existing methods are capable of addressing all common types of distribution shifts. Our findings underscore the need for future research in the field to conduct rigorous evaluations on a broader set of models and shifts, and to re-examine the assumptions behind the empirical success of TTA. Our code is available at https://github.com/lins-lab/ttab.

Latent Gaussian process (GP) models are widely used in neuroscience to uncover hidden state evolutions from sequential observations, mainly in neural activity recordings. While latent GP models provide a principled and powerful solution in theory, the intractable posterior in non-conjugate settings necessitates approximate inference schemes, which may lack scalability. In this work, we propose cvHM, a general inference framework for latent GP models leveraging Hida-Mat\'ern kernels and conjugate computation variational inference (CVI). With cvHM, we are able to perform variational inference of latent neural trajectories with linear time complexity for arbitrary likelihoods. The reparameterization of stationary kernels using Hida-Mat\'ern GPs helps us connect the latent variable models that encode prior assumptions through dynamical systems to those that encode trajectory assumptions through GPs. In contrast to previous work, we use bidirectional information filtering, leading to a more concise implementation. Furthermore, we employ the Whittle approximate likelihood to achieve highly efficient hyperparameter learning.

Real-time object detection is a crucial problem to solve when in comes to computer vision systems that needs to make appropriate decision based on detection in a timely manner. I have chosen the YOLO v1 architecture to implement it using PyTorch framework, with goal to familiarize with entire object detection pipeline I attempted different techniques to modify the original architecture to improve the results. Finally, I compare the metrics of my implementation to the original.

We study the problem of privately estimating the parameters of d-dimensional Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) with k components. For this, we develop a technique to reduce the problem to its non-private counterpart. This allows us to privatize existing non-private algorithms in a blackbox manner, while incurring only a small overhead in the sample complexity and running time. As the main application of our framework, we develop an (varepsilon, delta)-differentially private algorithm to learn GMMs using the non-private algorithm of Moitra and Valiant [MV10] as a blackbox. Consequently, this gives the first sample complexity upper bound and first polynomial time algorithm for privately learning GMMs without any boundedness assumptions on the parameters. As part of our analysis, we prove a tight (up to a constant factor) lower bound on the total variation distance of high-dimensional Gaussians which can be of independent interest.

Vessel transit in ice-covered waters poses unique challenges in safe and efficient motion planning. When the concentration of ice is high, it may not be possible to find collision-free trajectories. Instead, ice can be pushed out of the way if it is small or if contact occurs near the edge of the ice. In this work, we propose a real-time navigation framework that minimizes collisions with ice and distance travelled by the vessel. We exploit a lattice-based planner with a cost that captures the ship interaction with ice. To address the dynamic nature of the environment, we plan motion in a receding horizon manner based on updated vessel and ice state information. Further, we present a novel planning heuristic for evaluating the cost-to-go, which is applicable to navigation in a channel without a fixed goal location. The performance of our planner is evaluated across several levels of ice concentration both in simulated and in real-world experiments.

Recent efforts in Neural Rendering Fields (NeRF) have shown impressive results on novel view synthesis by utilizing implicit neural representation to represent 3D scenes. Due to the process of volumetric rendering, the inference speed for NeRF is extremely slow, limiting the application scenarios of utilizing NeRF on resource-constrained hardware, such as mobile devices. Many works have been conducted to reduce the latency of running NeRF models. However, most of them still require high-end GPU for acceleration or extra storage memory, which is all unavailable on mobile devices. Another emerging direction utilizes the neural light field (NeLF) for speedup, as only one forward pass is performed on a ray to predict the pixel color. Nevertheless, to reach a similar rendering quality as NeRF, the network in NeLF is designed with intensive computation, which is not mobile-friendly. In this work, we propose an efficient network that runs in real-time on mobile devices for neural rendering. We follow the setting of NeLF to train our network. Unlike existing works, we introduce a novel network architecture that runs efficiently on mobile devices with low latency and small size, i.e., saving 15times sim 24times storage compared with MobileNeRF. Our model achieves high-resolution generation while maintaining real-time inference for both synthetic and real-world scenes on mobile devices, e.g., 18.04ms (iPhone 13) for rendering one 1008times756 image of real 3D scenes. Additionally, we achieve similar image quality as NeRF and better quality than MobileNeRF (PSNR 26.15 vs. 25.91 on the real-world forward-facing dataset).

A prominent paradigm for graph neural networks is based on the message-passing framework. In this framework, information communication is realized only between neighboring nodes. The challenge of approaches that use this paradigm is to ensure efficient and accurate long-distance communication between nodes, as deep convolutional networks are prone to oversmoothing. In this paper, we present a novel method based on time derivative graph diffusion (TIDE) to overcome these structural limitations of the message-passing framework. Our approach allows for optimizing the spatial extent of diffusion across various tasks and network channels, thus enabling medium and long-distance communication efficiently. Furthermore, we show that our architecture design also enables local message-passing and thus inherits from the capabilities of local message-passing approaches. We show that on both widely used graph benchmarks and synthetic mesh and graph datasets, the proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods by a significant margin

Test-Time-Training (TTT) is an approach to cope with out-of-distribution (OOD) data by adapting a trained model to distribution shifts occurring at test-time. We propose to perform this adaptation via Activation Matching (ActMAD): We analyze activations of the model and align activation statistics of the OOD test data to those of the training data. In contrast to existing methods, which model the distribution of entire channels in the ultimate layer of the feature extractor, we model the distribution of each feature in multiple layers across the network. This results in a more fine-grained supervision and makes ActMAD attain state of the art performance on CIFAR-100C and Imagenet-C. ActMAD is also architecture- and task-agnostic, which lets us go beyond image classification, and score 15.4% improvement over previous approaches when evaluating a KITTI-trained object detector on KITTI-Fog. Our experiments highlight that ActMAD can be applied to online adaptation in realistic scenarios, requiring little data to attain its full performance.

Direct time-of-flight (dToF) sensors are promising for next-generation on-device 3D sensing. However, limited by manufacturing capabilities in a compact module, the dToF data has a low spatial resolution (e.g., sim 20times30 for iPhone dToF), and it requires a super-resolution step before being passed to downstream tasks. In this paper, we solve this super-resolution problem by fusing the low-resolution dToF data with the corresponding high-resolution RGB guidance. Unlike the conventional RGB-guided depth enhancement approaches, which perform the fusion in a per-frame manner, we propose the first multi-frame fusion scheme to mitigate the spatial ambiguity resulting from the low-resolution dToF imaging. In addition, dToF sensors provide unique depth histogram information for each local patch, and we incorporate this dToF-specific feature in our network design to further alleviate spatial ambiguity. To evaluate our models on complex dynamic indoor environments and to provide a large-scale dToF sensor dataset, we introduce DyDToF, the first synthetic RGB-dToF video dataset that features dynamic objects and a realistic dToF simulator following the physical imaging process. We believe the methods and dataset are beneficial to a broad community as dToF depth sensing is becoming mainstream on mobile devices. Our code and data are publicly available: https://github.com/facebookresearch/DVSR/

Test-time domain adaptation aims to adapt a source pre-trained model to a target domain without using any source data. Existing works mainly consider the case where the target domain is static. However, real-world machine perception systems are running in non-stationary and continually changing environments where the target domain distribution can change over time. Existing methods, which are mostly based on self-training and entropy regularization, can suffer from these non-stationary environments. Due to the distribution shift over time in the target domain, pseudo-labels become unreliable. The noisy pseudo-labels can further lead to error accumulation and catastrophic forgetting. To tackle these issues, we propose a continual test-time adaptation approach~(CoTTA) which comprises two parts. Firstly, we propose to reduce the error accumulation by using weight-averaged and augmentation-averaged predictions which are often more accurate. On the other hand, to avoid catastrophic forgetting, we propose to stochastically restore a small part of the neurons to the source pre-trained weights during each iteration to help preserve source knowledge in the long-term. The proposed method enables the long-term adaptation for all parameters in the network. CoTTA is easy to implement and can be readily incorporated in off-the-shelf pre-trained models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on four classification tasks and a segmentation task for continual test-time adaptation, on which we outperform existing methods. Our code is available at https://qin.ee/cotta.

Current supervised visual detectors, though impressive within their training distribution, often fail to segment out-of-distribution scenes into their constituent entities. Recent test-time adaptation methods use auxiliary self-supervised losses to adapt the network parameters to each test example independently and have shown promising results towards generalization outside the training distribution for the task of image classification. In our work, we find evidence that these losses can be insufficient for instance segmentation tasks, without also considering architectural inductive biases. For image segmentation, recent slot-centric generative models break such dependence on supervision by attempting to segment scenes into entities in a self-supervised manner by reconstructing pixels. Drawing upon these two lines of work, we propose Slot-TTA, a semi-supervised instance segmentation model equipped with a slot-centric inductive bias, that is adapted per scene at test time through gradient descent on reconstruction or novel view synthesis objectives. We show that test-time adaptation in Slot-TTA greatly improves instance segmentation in out-of-distribution scenes. We evaluate Slot-TTA in several 3D and 2D scene instance segmentation benchmarks and show substantial out-of-distribution performance improvements against state-of-the-art supervised feed-forward detectors and self-supervised test-time adaptation methods.

Most of the open-domain dialogue models tend to perform poorly in the setting of long-term human-bot conversations. The possible reason is that they lack the capability of understanding and memorizing long-term dialogue history information. To address this issue, we present a novel task of Long-term Memory Conversation (LeMon) and then build a new dialogue dataset DuLeMon and a dialogue generation framework with Long-Term Memory (LTM) mechanism (called PLATO-LTM). This LTM mechanism enables our system to accurately extract and continuously update long-term persona memory without requiring multiple-session dialogue datasets for model training. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to conduct real-time dynamic management of persona information of both parties, including the user and the bot. Results on DuLeMon indicate that PLATO-LTM can significantly outperform baselines in terms of long-term dialogue consistency, leading to better dialogue engagingness.

Recently, segmentation-based scene text detection methods have drawn extensive attention in the scene text detection field, because of their superiority in detecting the text instances of arbitrary shapes and extreme aspect ratios, profiting from the pixel-level descriptions. However, the vast majority of the existing segmentation-based approaches are limited to their complex post-processing algorithms and the scale robustness of their segmentation models, where the post-processing algorithms are not only isolated to the model optimization but also time-consuming and the scale robustness is usually strengthened by fusing multi-scale feature maps directly. In this paper, we propose a Differentiable Binarization (DB) module that integrates the binarization process, one of the most important steps in the post-processing procedure, into a segmentation network. Optimized along with the proposed DB module, the segmentation network can produce more accurate results, which enhances the accuracy of text detection with a simple pipeline. Furthermore, an efficient Adaptive Scale Fusion (ASF) module is proposed to improve the scale robustness by fusing features of different scales adaptively. By incorporating the proposed DB and ASF with the segmentation network, our proposed scene text detector consistently achieves state-of-the-art results, in terms of both detection accuracy and speed, on five standard benchmarks.

StyleGAN is arguably one of the most intriguing and well-studied generative models, demonstrating impressive performance in image generation, inversion, and manipulation. In this work, we explore the recent StyleGAN3 architecture, compare it to its predecessor, and investigate its unique advantages, as well as drawbacks. In particular, we demonstrate that while StyleGAN3 can be trained on unaligned data, one can still use aligned data for training, without hindering the ability to generate unaligned imagery. Next, our analysis of the disentanglement of the different latent spaces of StyleGAN3 indicates that the commonly used W/W+ spaces are more entangled than their StyleGAN2 counterparts, underscoring the benefits of using the StyleSpace for fine-grained editing. Considering image inversion, we observe that existing encoder-based techniques struggle when trained on unaligned data. We therefore propose an encoding scheme trained solely on aligned data, yet can still invert unaligned images. Finally, we introduce a novel video inversion and editing workflow that leverages the capabilities of a fine-tuned StyleGAN3 generator to reduce texture sticking and expand the field of view of the edited video.

Violence rates however have been brought down about 57% during the span of the past 4 decades yet it doesn't change the way that the demonstration of violence actually happens, unseen by the law. Violence can be mass controlled sometimes by higher authorities, however, to hold everything in line one must "Microgovern" over each movement occurring in every road of each square. To address the butterfly effects impact in our setting, I made a unique model and a theorized system to handle the issue utilizing deep learning. The model takes the input of the CCTV video feeds and after drawing inference, recognizes if a violent movement is going on. And hypothesized architecture aims towards probability-driven computation of video feeds and reduces overhead from naively computing for every CCTV video feeds.

We present a causal speech enhancement model working on the raw waveform that runs in real-time on a laptop CPU. The proposed model is based on an encoder-decoder architecture with skip-connections. It is optimized on both time and frequency domains, using multiple loss functions. Empirical evidence shows that it is capable of removing various kinds of background noise including stationary and non-stationary noises, as well as room reverb. Additionally, we suggest a set of data augmentation techniques applied directly on the raw waveform which further improve model performance and its generalization abilities. We perform evaluations on several standard benchmarks, both using objective metrics and human judgements. The proposed model matches state-of-the-art performance of both causal and non causal methods while working directly on the raw waveform.

Scene understanding is paramount in robotics, self-navigation, augmented reality, and many other fields. To fully accomplish this task, an autonomous agent has to infer the 3D structure of the sensed scene (to know where it looks at) and its content (to know what it sees). To tackle the two tasks, deep neural networks trained to infer semantic segmentation and depth from stereo images are often the preferred choices. Specifically, Semantic Stereo Matching can be tackled by either standalone models trained for the two tasks independently or joint end-to-end architectures. Nonetheless, as proposed so far, both solutions are inefficient because requiring two forward passes in the former case or due to the complexity of a single network in the latter, although jointly tackling both tasks is usually beneficial in terms of accuracy. In this paper, we propose a single compact and lightweight architecture for real-time semantic stereo matching. Our framework relies on coarse-to-fine estimations in a multi-stage fashion, allowing: i) very fast inference even on embedded devices, with marginal drops in accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art networks, ii) trade accuracy for speed, according to the specific application requirements. Experimental results on high-end GPUs as well as on an embedded Jetson TX2 confirm the superiority of semantic stereo matching compared to standalone tasks and highlight the versatility of our framework on any hardware and for any application.

In coal-fired power plants, it is critical to improve the operational efficiency of boilers for sustainability. In this work, we formulate real-time boiler control as an optimization problem that looks for the best distribution of temperature in different zones and oxygen content from the flue to improve the boiler's stability and energy efficiency. We employ an efficient algorithm by integrating appropriate machine learning and optimization techniques. We obtain a large dataset collected from a real boiler for more than two months from our industry partner, and conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Deep convolutional neural networks trained end-to-end are the state-of-the-art methods to regress dense disparity maps from stereo pairs. These models, however, suffer from a notable decrease in accuracy when exposed to scenarios significantly different from the training set, e.g., real vs synthetic images, etc.). We argue that it is extremely unlikely to gather enough samples to achieve effective training/tuning in any target domain, thus making this setup impractical for many applications. Instead, we propose to perform unsupervised and continuous online adaptation of a deep stereo network, which allows for preserving its accuracy in any environment. However, this strategy is extremely computationally demanding and thus prevents real-time inference. We address this issue introducing a new lightweight, yet effective, deep stereo architecture, Modularly ADaptive Network (MADNet) and developing a Modular ADaptation (MAD) algorithm, which independently trains sub-portions of the network. By deploying MADNet together with MAD we introduce the first real-time self-adaptive deep stereo system enabling competitive performance on heterogeneous datasets.

This paper introduces UnSeenTimeQA, a novel time-sensitive question-answering (TSQA) benchmark that diverges from traditional TSQA benchmarks by avoiding factual and web-searchable queries. We present a series of time-sensitive event scenarios decoupled from real-world factual information. It requires large language models (LLMs) to engage in genuine temporal reasoning, disassociating from the knowledge acquired during the pre-training phase. Our evaluation of six open-source LLMs (ranging from 2B to 70B in size) and three closed-source LLMs reveal that the questions from the UnSeenTimeQA present substantial challenges. This indicates the models' difficulties in handling complex temporal reasoning scenarios. Additionally, we present several analyses shedding light on the models' performance in answering time-sensitive questions.

Transformers have revolutionized machine learning, yet their inner workings remain opaque to many. We present Transformer Explainer, an interactive visualization tool designed for non-experts to learn about Transformers through the GPT-2 model. Our tool helps users understand complex Transformer concepts by integrating a model overview and enabling smooth transitions across abstraction levels of mathematical operations and model structures. It runs a live GPT-2 instance locally in the user's browser, empowering users to experiment with their own input and observe in real-time how the internal components and parameters of the Transformer work together to predict the next tokens. Our tool requires no installation or special hardware, broadening the public's education access to modern generative AI techniques. Our open-sourced tool is available at https://poloclub.github.io/transformer-explainer/. A video demo is available at https://youtu.be/ECR4oAwocjs.

Time series is a collection of data instances that are ordered according to a time stamp. Stock prices, temperature, etc are examples of time series data in real life. Time series data are used for forecasting sales, predicting trends. Visualization is the process of visually representing data or the relationship between features of a data either in a two-dimensional plot or a three-dimensional plot. Visualizing the time series data constitutes an important part of the process for working with a time series dataset. Visualizing the data not only helps in the modelling process but it can also be used to identify trends and features that cause those trends. In this work, we take a real-life time series dataset and analyse how the target feature relates to other features of the dataset through visualization. From the work that has been carried out, we present an effective method of visualization for time series data which will be much useful for machine learning modelling with such datasets.

We introduce Inference-Time Intervention (ITI), a technique designed to enhance the truthfulness of large language models (LLMs). ITI operates by shifting model activations during inference, following a set of directions across a limited number of attention heads. This intervention significantly improves the performance of LLaMA models on the TruthfulQA benchmark. On an instruction-finetuned LLaMA called Alpaca, ITI improves its truthfulness from 32.5% to 65.1%. We identify a tradeoff between truthfulness and helpfulness and demonstrate how to balance it by tuning the intervention strength. ITI is minimally invasive and computationally inexpensive. Moreover, the technique is data efficient: while approaches like RLHF require extensive annotations, ITI locates truthful directions using only few hundred examples. Our findings suggest that LLMs may have an internal representation of the likelihood of something being true, even as they produce falsehoods on the surface.

Classification of time series data is an important task for many application domains. One of the best existing methods for this task, in terms of accuracy and computation time, is MiniROCKET. In this work, we extend this approach to provide better global temporal encodings using hyperdimensional computing (HDC) mechanisms. HDC (also known as Vector Symbolic Architectures, VSA) is a general method to explicitly represent and process information in high-dimensional vectors. It has previously been used successfully in combination with deep neural networks and other signal processing algorithms. We argue that the internal high-dimensional representation of MiniROCKET is well suited to be complemented by the algebra of HDC. This leads to a more general formulation, HDC-MiniROCKET, where the original algorithm is only a special case. We will discuss and demonstrate that HDC-MiniROCKET can systematically overcome catastrophic failures of MiniROCKET on simple synthetic datasets. These results are confirmed by experiments on the 128 datasets from the UCR time series classification benchmark. The extension with HDC can achieve considerably better results on datasets with high temporal dependence without increasing the computational effort for inference.

Stateful policies play an important role in reinforcement learning, such as handling partially observable environments, enhancing robustness, or imposing an inductive bias directly into the policy structure. The conventional method for training stateful policies is Backpropagation Through Time (BPTT), which comes with significant drawbacks, such as slow training due to sequential gradient propagation and the occurrence of vanishing or exploding gradients. The gradient is often truncated to address these issues, resulting in a biased policy update. We present a novel approach for training stateful policies by decomposing the latter into a stochastic internal state kernel and a stateless policy, jointly optimized by following the stateful policy gradient. We introduce different versions of the stateful policy gradient theorem, enabling us to easily instantiate stateful variants of popular reinforcement learning and imitation learning algorithms. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical analysis of our new gradient estimator and compare it with BPTT. We evaluate our approach on complex continuous control tasks, e.g., humanoid locomotion, and demonstrate that our gradient estimator scales effectively with task complexity while offering a faster and simpler alternative to BPTT.

Knowledge-intensive language understanding tasks require Language Models (LMs) to integrate relevant context, mitigating their inherent weaknesses, such as incomplete or outdated knowledge. Nevertheless, studies indicate that LMs often ignore the provided context as it can conflict with the pre-existing LM's memory learned during pre-training. Moreover, conflicting knowledge can already be present in the LM's parameters, termed intra-memory conflict. Existing works have studied the two types of knowledge conflicts only in isolation. We conjecture that the (degree of) intra-memory conflicts can in turn affect LM's handling of context-memory conflicts. To study this, we introduce the DYNAMICQA dataset, which includes facts with a temporal dynamic nature where a fact can change with a varying time frequency and disputable dynamic facts, which can change depending on the viewpoint. DYNAMICQA is the first to include real-world knowledge conflicts and provide context to study the link between the different types of knowledge conflicts. With the proposed dataset, we assess the use of uncertainty for measuring the intra-memory conflict and introduce a novel Coherent Persuasion (CP) score to evaluate the context's ability to sway LM's semantic output. Our extensive experiments reveal that static facts, which are unlikely to change, are more easily updated with additional context, relative to temporal and disputable facts.

When translating words referring to the speaker, speech translation (ST) systems should not resort to default masculine generics nor rely on potentially misleading vocal traits. Rather, they should assign gender according to the speakers' preference. The existing solutions to do so, though effective, are hardly feasible in practice as they involve dedicated model re-training on gender-labeled ST data. To overcome these limitations, we propose the first inference-time solution to control speaker-related gender inflections in ST. Our approach partially replaces the (biased) internal language model (LM) implicitly learned by the ST decoder with gender-specific external LMs. Experiments on en->es/fr/it show that our solution outperforms the base models and the best training-time mitigation strategy by up to 31.0 and 1.6 points in gender accuracy, respectively, for feminine forms. The gains are even larger (up to 32.0 and 3.4) in the challenging condition where speakers' vocal traits conflict with their gender.

Estimating robot pose from RGB images is a crucial problem in computer vision and robotics. While previous methods have achieved promising performance, most of them presume full knowledge of robot internal states, e.g. ground-truth robot joint angles. However, this assumption is not always valid in practical situations. In real-world applications such as multi-robot collaboration or human-robot interaction, the robot joint states might not be shared or could be unreliable. On the other hand, existing approaches that estimate robot pose without joint state priors suffer from heavy computation burdens and thus cannot support real-time applications. This work introduces an efficient framework for real-time robot pose estimation from RGB images without requiring known robot states. Our method estimates camera-to-robot rotation, robot state parameters, keypoint locations, and root depth, employing a neural network module for each task to facilitate learning and sim-to-real transfer. Notably, it achieves inference in a single feed-forward pass without iterative optimization. Our approach offers a 12-time speed increase with state-of-the-art accuracy, enabling real-time holistic robot pose estimation for the first time. Code and models are available at https://github.com/Oliverbansk/Holistic-Robot-Pose-Estimation.

Optics and lenses are abstract categorical gadgets that model systems with bidirectional data flow. In this paper we observe that the denotational definition of optics - identifying two optics as equivalent by observing their behaviour from the outside - is not suitable for operational, software oriented approaches where optics are not merely observed, but built with their internal setups in mind. We identify operational differences between denotationally isomorphic categories of cartesian optics and lenses: their different composition rule and corresponding space-time tradeoffs, positioning them at two opposite ends of a spectrum. With these motivations we lift the existing categorical constructions and their relationships to the 2-categorical level, showing that the relevant operational concerns become visible. We define the 2-category 2-Optic(C) whose 2-cells explicitly track optics' internal configuration. We show that the 1-category Optic(C) arises by locally quotienting out the connected components of this 2-category. We show that the embedding of lenses into cartesian optics gets weakened from a functor to an oplax functor whose oplaxator now detects the different composition rule. We determine the difficulties in showing this functor forms a part of an adjunction in any of the standard 2-categories. We establish a conjecture that the well-known isomorphism between cartesian lenses and optics arises out of the lax 2-adjunction between their double-categorical counterparts. In addition to presenting new research, this paper is also meant to be an accessible introduction to the topic.

Knowledge hallucination have raised widespread concerns for the security and reliability of deployed LLMs. Previous efforts in detecting hallucinations have been employed at logit-level uncertainty estimation or language-level self-consistency evaluation, where the semantic information is inevitably lost during the token-decoding procedure. Thus, we propose to explore the dense semantic information retained within LLMs' INternal States for hallucInation DEtection (INSIDE). In particular, a simple yet effective EigenScore metric is proposed to better evaluate responses' self-consistency, which exploits the eigenvalues of responses' covariance matrix to measure the semantic consistency/diversity in the dense embedding space. Furthermore, from the perspective of self-consistent hallucination detection, a test time feature clipping approach is explored to truncate extreme activations in the internal states, which reduces overconfident generations and potentially benefits the detection of overconfident hallucinations. Extensive experiments and ablation studies are performed on several popular LLMs and question-answering (QA) benchmarks, showing the effectiveness of our proposal.

Diffusion models have been shown to be capable of generating high-quality images, suggesting that they could contain meaningful internal representations. Unfortunately, the feature maps that encode a diffusion model's internal information are spread not only over layers of the network, but also over diffusion timesteps, making it challenging to extract useful descriptors. We propose Diffusion Hyperfeatures, a framework for consolidating multi-scale and multi-timestep feature maps into per-pixel feature descriptors that can be used for downstream tasks. These descriptors can be extracted for both synthetic and real images using the generation and inversion processes. We evaluate the utility of our Diffusion Hyperfeatures on the task of semantic keypoint correspondence: our method achieves superior performance on the SPair-71k real image benchmark. We also demonstrate that our method is flexible and transferable: our feature aggregation network trained on the inversion features of real image pairs can be used on the generation features of synthetic image pairs with unseen objects and compositions. Our code is available at https://diffusion-hyperfeatures.github.io.

The success of deep learning models has led to their adaptation and adoption by prominent video understanding methods. The majority of these approaches encode features in a joint space-time modality for which the inner workings and learned representations are difficult to visually interpret. We propose LEArned Preconscious Synthesis (LEAPS), an architecture-independent method for synthesizing videos from the internal spatiotemporal representations of models. Using a stimulus video and a target class, we prime a fixed space-time model and iteratively optimize a video initialized with random noise. Additional regularizers are used to improve the feature diversity of the synthesized videos alongside the cross-frame temporal coherence of motions. We quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate the applicability of LEAPS by inverting a range of spatiotemporal convolutional and attention-based architectures trained on Kinetics-400, which to the best of our knowledge has not been previously accomplished.

Democratization of machine learning requires architectures that automatically adapt to new problems. Neural Differential Equations (NDEs) have emerged as a popular modeling framework by removing the need for ML practitioners to choose the number of layers in a recurrent model. While we can control the computational cost by choosing the number of layers in standard architectures, in NDEs the number of neural network evaluations for a forward pass can depend on the number of steps of the adaptive ODE solver. But, can we force the NDE to learn the version with the least steps while not increasing the training cost? Current strategies to overcome slow prediction require high order automatic differentiation, leading to significantly higher training time. We describe a novel regularization method that uses the internal cost heuristics of adaptive differential equation solvers combined with discrete adjoint sensitivities to guide the training process towards learning NDEs that are easier to solve. This approach opens up the blackbox numerical analysis behind the differential equation solver's algorithm and directly uses its local error estimates and stiffness heuristics as cheap and accurate cost estimates. We incorporate our method without any change in the underlying NDE framework and show that our method extends beyond Ordinary Differential Equations to accommodate Neural Stochastic Differential Equations. We demonstrate how our approach can halve the prediction time and, unlike other methods which can increase the training time by an order of magnitude, we demonstrate similar reduction in training times. Together this showcases how the knowledge embedded within state-of-the-art equation solvers can be used to enhance machine learning.

We present Large Language Model for Mixed Reality (LLMR), a framework for the real-time creation and modification of interactive Mixed Reality experiences using LLMs. LLMR leverages novel strategies to tackle difficult cases where ideal training data is scarce, or where the design goal requires the synthesis of internal dynamics, intuitive analysis, or advanced interactivity. Our framework relies on text interaction and the Unity game engine. By incorporating techniques for scene understanding, task planning, self-debugging, and memory management, LLMR outperforms the standard GPT-4 by 4x in average error rate. We demonstrate LLMR's cross-platform interoperability with several example worlds, and evaluate it on a variety of creation and modification tasks to show that it can produce and edit diverse objects, tools, and scenes. Finally, we conducted a usability study (N=11) with a diverse set that revealed participants had positive experiences with the system and would use it again.

While the problem of hallucinations in neural machine translation has long been recognized, so far the progress on its alleviation is very little. Indeed, recently it turned out that without artificially encouraging models to hallucinate, previously existing methods fall short and even the standard sequence log-probability is more informative. It means that characteristics internal to the model can give much more information than we expect, and before using external models and measures, we first need to ask: how far can we go if we use nothing but the translation model itself ? We propose to use a method that evaluates the percentage of the source contribution to a generated translation. Intuitively, hallucinations are translations "detached" from the source, hence they can be identified by low source contribution. This method improves detection accuracy for the most severe hallucinations by a factor of 2 and is able to alleviate hallucinations at test time on par with the previous best approach that relies on external models. Next, if we move away from internal model characteristics and allow external tools, we show that using sentence similarity from cross-lingual embeddings further improves these results.

Despite their remarkable capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to generate responses that contradict verifiable facts, i.e., unfaithful hallucination content. Existing efforts generally focus on optimizing model parameters or editing semantic representations, which compromise the internal factual knowledge of target LLMs. In addition, hallucinations typically exhibit multifaceted patterns in downstream tasks, limiting the model's holistic performance across tasks. In this paper, we propose a Comparator-driven Decoding-Time (CDT) framework to alleviate the response hallucination. Firstly, we construct hallucinatory and truthful comparators with multi-task fine-tuning samples. In this case, we present an instruction prototype-guided mixture of experts strategy to enhance the ability of the corresponding comparators to capture different hallucination or truthfulness patterns in distinct task instructions. CDT constrains next-token predictions to factuality-robust distributions by contrasting the logit differences between the target LLMs and these comparators. Systematic experiments on multiple downstream tasks show that our framework can significantly improve the model performance and response factuality.

Our aim is to contribute to quantum field theory (QFT) formalisms useful for descriptions of short time phenomena, dominant especially in heavy ion collisions. We formulate out-of-equilibrium QFT within the finite-time-path formalism (FTP) and renormalization theory (RT). The potential conflict of FTP and RT is investigated in g phi^3 QFT, by using the retarded/advanced (R/A) basis of Green functions and dimensional renormalization (DR). For example, vertices immediately after (in time) divergent self-energy loops do not conserve energy, as integrals diverge. We "repair" them, while keeping d<4, to obtain energy conservation at those vertices. Already in the S-matrix theory, the renormalized, finite part of Feynman self-energy Sigma_{F}(p_0) does not vanish when |p_0|rightarrowinfty and cannot be split to retarded and advanced parts. In the Glaser--Epstein approach, the causality is repaired in the composite object G_F(p_0)Sigma_{F}(p_0). In the FTP approach, after repairing the vertices, the corresponding composite objects are G_R(p_0)Sigma_{R}(p_0) and Sigma_{A}(p_0)G_A(p_0). In the limit drightarrow 4, one obtains causal QFT. The tadpole contribution splits into diverging and finite parts. The diverging, constant component is eliminated by the renormalization condition langle 0|phi|0rangle =0 of the S-matrix theory. The finite, oscillating energy-nonconserving tadpole contributions vanish in the limit trightarrow infty .

Recent techniques for real-time view synthesis have rapidly advanced in fidelity and speed, and modern methods are capable of rendering near-photorealistic scenes at interactive frame rates. At the same time, a tension has arisen between explicit scene representations amenable to rasterization and neural fields built on ray marching, with state-of-the-art instances of the latter surpassing the former in quality while being prohibitively expensive for real-time applications. In this work, we introduce SMERF, a view synthesis approach that achieves state-of-the-art accuracy among real-time methods on large scenes with footprints up to 300 m^2 at a volumetric resolution of 3.5 mm^3. Our method is built upon two primary contributions: a hierarchical model partitioning scheme, which increases model capacity while constraining compute and memory consumption, and a distillation training strategy that simultaneously yields high fidelity and internal consistency. Our approach enables full six degrees of freedom (6DOF) navigation within a web browser and renders in real-time on commodity smartphones and laptops. Extensive experiments show that our method exceeds the current state-of-the-art in real-time novel view synthesis by 0.78 dB on standard benchmarks and 1.78 dB on large scenes, renders frames three orders of magnitude faster than state-of-the-art radiance field models, and achieves real-time performance across a wide variety of commodity devices, including smartphones. We encourage readers to explore these models interactively at our project website: https://smerf-3d.github.io.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in natural language processing but exhibit significant performance gaps among different languages. Most existing approaches to address these disparities rely on pretraining or fine-tuning, which are resource-intensive. To overcome these limitations without incurring significant costs, we propose Inference-Time Cross-Lingual Intervention (INCLINE), a novel framework that enhances LLM performance on low-performing (source) languages by aligning their internal representations with those of high-performing (target) languages during inference. INCLINE initially learns alignment matrices using parallel sentences from source and target languages through a Least-Squares optimization, and then applies these matrices during inference to transform the low-performing language representations toward the high-performing language space. Extensive experiments on nine benchmarks with five LLMs demonstrate that INCLINE significantly improves performance across diverse tasks and languages, compared to recent strong baselines. Our analysis demonstrates that INCLINE is highly cost-effective and applicable to a wide range of applications. In addition, we release the code to foster research along this line: https://github.com/weixuan-wang123/INCLINE.

This study presents a detailed analysis of the YOLOv8 object detection model, focusing on its architecture, training techniques, and performance improvements over previous iterations like YOLOv5. Key innovations, including the CSPNet backbone for enhanced feature extraction, the FPN+PAN neck for superior multi-scale object detection, and the transition to an anchor-free approach, are thoroughly examined. The paper reviews YOLOv8's performance across benchmarks like Microsoft COCO and Roboflow 100, highlighting its high accuracy and real-time capabilities across diverse hardware platforms. Additionally, the study explores YOLOv8's developer-friendly enhancements, such as its unified Python package and CLI, which streamline model training and deployment. Overall, this research positions YOLOv8 as a state-of-the-art solution in the evolving object detection field.

Background. Fully automatic analysis of myocardial perfusion MRI datasets enables rapid and objective reporting of stress/rest studies in patients with suspected ischemic heart disease. Developing deep learning techniques that can analyze multi-center datasets despite limited training data and variations in software and hardware is an ongoing challenge. Methods. Datasets from 3 medical centers acquired at 3T (n = 150 subjects) were included: an internal dataset (inD; n = 95) and two external datasets (exDs; n = 55) used for evaluating the robustness of the trained deep neural network (DNN) models against differences in pulse sequence (exD-1) and scanner vendor (exD-2). A subset of inD (n = 85) was used for training/validation of a pool of DNNs for segmentation, all using the same spatiotemporal U-Net architecture and hyperparameters but with different parameter initializations. We employed a space-time sliding-patch analysis approach that automatically yields a pixel-wise "uncertainty map" as a byproduct of the segmentation process. In our approach, a given test case is segmented by all members of the DNN pool and the resulting uncertainty maps are leveraged to automatically select the "best" one among the pool of solutions. Results. The proposed DAUGS analysis approach performed similarly to the established approach on the internal dataset (p = n.s.) whereas it significantly outperformed on the external datasets (p < 0.005 for exD-1 and exD-2). Moreover, the number of image series with "failed" segmentation was significantly lower for the proposed vs. the established approach (4.3% vs. 17.1%, p < 0.0005). Conclusions. The proposed DAUGS analysis approach has the potential to improve the robustness of deep learning methods for segmentation of multi-center stress perfusion datasets with variations in the choice of pulse sequence, site location or scanner vendor.