Daily Papers

Portfolio Selection is an important real-world financial task and has attracted extensive attention in artificial intelligence communities. This task, however, has two main difficulties: (i) the non-stationary price series and complex asset correlations make the learning of feature representation very hard; (ii) the practicality principle in financial markets requires controlling both transaction and risk costs. Most existing methods adopt handcraft features and/or consider no constraints for the costs, which may make them perform unsatisfactorily and fail to control both costs in practice. In this paper, we propose a cost-sensitive portfolio selection method with deep reinforcement learning. Specifically, a novel two-stream portfolio policy network is devised to extract both price series patterns and asset correlations, while a new cost-sensitive reward function is developed to maximize the accumulated return and constrain both costs via reinforcement learning. We theoretically analyze the near-optimality of the proposed reward, which shows that the growth rate of the policy regarding this reward function can approach the theoretical optimum. We also empirically evaluate the proposed method on real-world datasets. Promising results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method in terms of profitability, cost-sensitivity and representation abilities.

Financial portfolio management is the process of constant redistribution of a fund into different financial products. This paper presents a financial-model-free Reinforcement Learning framework to provide a deep machine learning solution to the portfolio management problem. The framework consists of the Ensemble of Identical Independent Evaluators (EIIE) topology, a Portfolio-Vector Memory (PVM), an Online Stochastic Batch Learning (OSBL) scheme, and a fully exploiting and explicit reward function. This framework is realized in three instants in this work with a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), a basic Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). They are, along with a number of recently reviewed or published portfolio-selection strategies, examined in three back-test experiments with a trading period of 30 minutes in a cryptocurrency market. Cryptocurrencies are electronic and decentralized alternatives to government-issued money, with Bitcoin as the best-known example of a cryptocurrency. All three instances of the framework monopolize the top three positions in all experiments, outdistancing other compared trading algorithms. Although with a high commission rate of 0.25% in the backtests, the framework is able to achieve at least 4-fold returns in 50 days.

A diversified risk-adjusted time-series momentum (TSMOM) portfolio can deliver substantial abnormal returns and offer some degree of tail risk protection during extreme market events. The performance of existing TSMOM strategies, however, relies not only on the quality of the momentum signal but also on the efficacy of the volatility estimator. Yet many of the existing studies have always considered these two factors to be independent. Inspired by recent progress in Multi-Task Learning (MTL), we present a new approach using MTL in a deep neural network architecture that jointly learns portfolio construction and various auxiliary tasks related to volatility, such as forecasting realized volatility as measured by different volatility estimators. Through backtesting from January 2000 to December 2020 on a diversified portfolio of continuous futures contracts, we demonstrate that even after accounting for transaction costs of up to 3 basis points, our approach outperforms existing TSMOM strategies. Moreover, experiments confirm that adding auxiliary tasks indeed boosts the portfolio's performance. These findings demonstrate that MTL can be a powerful tool in finance.

We develop a portfolio allocation framework that leverages deep learning techniques to address challenges arising from high-dimensional, non-stationary, and low-signal-to-noise market information. Our approach includes a dynamic embedding method that reduces the non-stationary, high-dimensional state space into a lower-dimensional representation. We design a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that integrates generative autoencoders and online meta-learning to dynamically embed market information, enabling the RL agent to focus on the most impactful parts of the state space for portfolio allocation decisions. Empirical analysis based on the top 500 U.S. stocks demonstrates that our framework outperforms common portfolio benchmarks and the predict-then-optimize (PTO) approach using machine learning, particularly during periods of market stress. Traditional factor models do not fully explain this superior performance. The framework's ability to time volatility reduces its market exposure during turbulent times. Ablation studies confirm the robustness of this performance across various reinforcement learning algorithms. Additionally, the embedding and meta-learning techniques effectively manage the complexities of high-dimensional, noisy, and non-stationary financial data, enhancing both portfolio performance and risk management.

This research paper delves into the application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) in asset-class agnostic portfolio optimization, integrating industry-grade methodologies with quantitative finance. At the heart of this integration is our robust framework that not only merges advanced DRL algorithms with modern computational techniques but also emphasizes stringent statistical analysis, software engineering and regulatory compliance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study integrating financial Reinforcement Learning with sim-to-real methodologies from robotics and mathematical physics, thus enriching our frameworks and arguments with this unique perspective. Our research culminates with the introduction of AlphaOptimizerNet, a proprietary Reinforcement Learning agent (and corresponding library). Developed from a synthesis of state-of-the-art (SOTA) literature and our unique interdisciplinary methodology, AlphaOptimizerNet demonstrates encouraging risk-return optimization across various asset classes with realistic constraints. These preliminary results underscore the practical efficacy of our frameworks. As the finance sector increasingly gravitates towards advanced algorithmic solutions, our study bridges theoretical advancements with real-world applicability, offering a template for ensuring safety and robust standards in this technologically driven future.

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to address the concept drifting problem by efficiently updating forecasting models based on streaming data. Many algorithms are designed for online time series forecasting, with some exploiting cross-variable dependency while others assume independence among variables. Given every data assumption has its own pros and cons in online time series modeling, we propose Online ensembling Network (OneNet). It dynamically updates and combines two models, with one focusing on modeling the dependency across the time dimension and the other on cross-variate dependency. Our method incorporates a reinforcement learning-based approach into the traditional online convex programming framework, allowing for the linear combination of the two models with dynamically adjusted weights. OneNet addresses the main shortcoming of classical online learning methods that tend to be slow in adapting to the concept drift. Empirical results show that OneNet reduces online forecasting error by more than 50% compared to the State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) method. The code is available at https://github.com/yfzhang114/OneNet.

This paper introduces DeepUnifiedMom, a deep learning framework that enhances portfolio management through a multi-task learning approach and a multi-gate mixture of experts. The essence of DeepUnifiedMom lies in its ability to create unified momentum portfolios that incorporate the dynamics of time series momentum across a spectrum of time frames, a feature often missing in traditional momentum strategies. Our comprehensive backtesting, encompassing diverse asset classes such as equity indexes, fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodities, demonstrates that DeepUnifiedMom consistently outperforms benchmark models, even after factoring in transaction costs. This superior performance underscores DeepUnifiedMom's capability to capture the full spectrum of momentum opportunities within financial markets. The findings highlight DeepUnifiedMom as an effective tool for practitioners looking to exploit the entire range of momentum opportunities. It offers a compelling solution for improving risk-adjusted returns and is a valuable strategy for navigating the complexities of portfolio management.

We study both stream-based and pool-based active learning with neural network approximations. A recent line of works proposed bandit-based approaches that transformed active learning into a bandit problem, achieving both theoretical and empirical success. However, the performance and computational costs of these methods may be susceptible to the number of classes, denoted as K, due to this transformation. Therefore, this paper seeks to answer the question: "How can we mitigate the adverse impacts of K while retaining the advantages of principled exploration and provable performance guarantees in active learning?" To tackle this challenge, we propose two algorithms based on the newly designed exploitation and exploration neural networks for stream-based and pool-based active learning. Subsequently, we provide theoretical performance guarantees for both algorithms in a non-parametric setting, demonstrating a slower error-growth rate concerning K for the proposed approaches. We use extensive experiments to evaluate the proposed algorithms, which consistently outperform state-of-the-art baselines.

This paper advances the computational efficiency of Deep Hedging frameworks through the novel integration of Kronecker-Factored Approximate Curvature (K-FAC) optimization. While recent literature has established Deep Hedging as a data-driven alternative to traditional risk management strategies, the computational burden of training neural networks with first-order methods remains a significant impediment to practical implementation. The proposed architecture couples Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with K-FAC second-order optimization, specifically addressing the challenges of sequential financial data and curvature estimation in recurrent networks. Empirical validation using simulated paths from a calibrated Heston stochastic volatility model demonstrates that the K-FAC implementation achieves marked improvements in convergence dynamics and hedging efficacy. The methodology yields a 78.3% reduction in transaction costs (t = 56.88, p < 0.001) and a 34.4% decrease in profit and loss (P&L) variance compared to Adam optimization. Moreover, the K-FAC-enhanced model exhibits superior risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 0.0401, contrasting with -0.0025 for the baseline model. These results provide compelling evidence that second-order optimization methods can materially enhance the tractability of Deep Hedging implementations. The findings contribute to the growing literature on computational methods in quantitative finance while highlighting the potential for advanced optimization techniques to bridge the gap between theoretical frameworks and practical applications in financial markets.

In this work, we explore the possibility of utilizing transfer learning techniques to address the financial portfolio optimization problem. We introduce a novel concept called "transfer risk", within the optimization framework of transfer learning. A series of numerical experiments are conducted from three categories: cross-continent transfer, cross-sector transfer, and cross-frequency transfer. In particular, 1. a strong correlation between the transfer risk and the overall performance of transfer learning methods is established, underscoring the significance of transfer risk as a viable indicator of "transferability"; 2. transfer risk is shown to provide a computationally efficient way to identify appropriate source tasks in transfer learning, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the transfer learning approach; 3. additionally, the numerical experiments offer valuable new insights for portfolio management across these different settings.

This paper investigates the problem of ensembling multiple strategies for sequential portfolios to outperform individual strategies in terms of long-term wealth. Due to the uncertainty of strategies' performances in the future market, which are often based on specific models and statistical assumptions, investors often mitigate risk and enhance robustness by combining multiple strategies, akin to common approaches in collective learning prediction. However, the absence of a distribution-free and consistent preference framework complicates decisions of combination due to the ambiguous objective. To address this gap, we introduce a novel framework for decision-making in combining strategies, irrespective of market conditions, by establishing the investor's preference between decisions and then forming a clear objective. Through this framework, we propose a combinatorial strategy construction, free from statistical assumptions, for any scale of component strategies, even infinite, such that it meets the determined criterion. Finally, we test the proposed strategy along with its accelerated variant and some other multi-strategies. The numerical experiments show results in favor of the proposed strategies, albeit with small tradeoffs in their Sharpe ratios, in which their cumulative wealths eventually exceed those of the best component strategies while the accelerated strategy significantly improves performance.

In quantitative finance, machine learning methods are essential for alpha generation. This study introduces a new approach that combines Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and neural networks, integrated with Black-Litterman portfolio optimization. During the COVID period (2019-2022), this dual-model approach achieved a 83% return with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77. It incorporates two risk models to enhance risk management, showing efficiency during volatile periods. The methodology was implemented on the QuantConnect platform, which was chosen for its robust framework and experimental reproducibility. The system, which predicts future price movements, includes a three-year warm-up to ensure proper algorithm function. It targets highly liquid, large-cap energy stocks to ensure stable and predictable performance while also considering broker payments. The dual-model alpha system utilizes log returns to select the optimal state based on the historical performance. It combines state predictions with neural network outputs, which are based on historical data, to generate trading signals. This study examined the architecture of the trading system, data pre-processing, training, and performance. The full code and backtesting data are available under the QuantConnect terms.

Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) aims to assess the effectiveness of counterfactual policies using only offline logged data and is often used to identify the top-k promising policies for deployment in online A/B tests. Existing evaluation metrics for OPE estimators primarily focus on the "accuracy" of OPE or that of downstream policy selection, neglecting risk-return tradeoff in the subsequent online policy deployment. To address this issue, we draw inspiration from portfolio evaluation in finance and develop a new metric, called SharpeRatio@k, which measures the risk-return tradeoff of policy portfolios formed by an OPE estimator under varying online evaluation budgets (k). We validate our metric in two example scenarios, demonstrating its ability to effectively distinguish between low-risk and high-risk estimators and to accurately identify the most efficient one. Efficiency of an estimator is characterized by its capability to form the most advantageous policy portfolios, maximizing returns while minimizing risks during online deployment, a nuance that existing metrics typically overlook. To facilitate a quick, accurate, and consistent evaluation of OPE via SharpeRatio@k, we have also integrated this metric into an open-source software, SCOPE-RL (https://github.com/hakuhodo-technologies/scope-rl). Employing SharpeRatio@k and SCOPE-RL, we conduct comprehensive benchmarking experiments on various estimators and RL tasks, focusing on their risk-return tradeoff. These experiments offer several interesting directions and suggestions for future OPE research.

Artificial intelligence is transforming financial investment decision-making frameworks, with deep reinforcement learning demonstrating substantial potential in robo-advisory applications. This paper addresses the limitations of traditional portfolio optimization methods in dynamic asset weight adjustment through the development of a deep reinforcement learning-based dynamic optimization model grounded in practical trading processes. The research advances two key innovations: first, the introduction of a novel Sharpe ratio reward function engineered for Actor-Critic deep reinforcement learning algorithms, which ensures stable convergence during training while consistently achieving positive average Sharpe ratios; second, the development of an innovative comprehensive approach to portfolio optimization utilizing deep reinforcement learning, which significantly enhances model optimization capability through the integration of random sampling strategies during training with image-based deep neural network architectures for multi-dimensional financial time series data processing, average Sharpe ratio reward functions, and deep reinforcement learning algorithms. The empirical analysis validates the model using randomly selected constituent stocks from the CSI 300 Index, benchmarking against established financial econometric optimization models. Backtesting results demonstrate the model's efficacy in optimizing portfolio allocation and mitigating investment risk, yielding superior comprehensive performance metrics.

This work aims to implement Long Short-Term Memory mixture density networks (LSTM-MDNs) for Value-at-Risk forecasting and compare their performance with established models (historical simulation, CMM, and GARCH) using a defined backtesting procedure. The focus was on the neural network's ability to capture volatility clustering and its real-world applicability. Three architectures were tested: a 2-component mixture density network, a regularized 2-component model (Arimond et al., 2020), and a 3-component mixture model, the latter being tested for the first time in Value-at-Risk forecasting. Backtesting was performed on three stock indices (FTSE 100, S&P 500, EURO STOXX 50) over two distinct two-year periods (2017-2018 as a calm period, 2021-2022 as turbulent). Model performance was assessed through unconditional coverage and independence assumption tests. The neural network's ability to handle volatility clustering was validated via correlation analysis and graphical evaluation. Results show limited success for the neural network approach. LSTM-MDNs performed poorly for 2017/2018 but outperformed benchmark models in 2021/2022. The LSTM mechanism allowed the neural network to capture volatility clustering similarly to GARCH models. However, several issues were identified: the need for proper model initialization and reliance on large datasets for effective learning. The findings suggest that while LSTM-MDNs provide adequate risk forecasts, further research and adjustments are necessary for stable performance.

Combinatorial optimization (CO) problems are often NP-hard and thus out of reach for exact algorithms, making them a tempting domain to apply machine learning methods. The highly structured constraints in these problems can hinder either optimization or sampling directly in the solution space. On the other hand, GFlowNets have recently emerged as a powerful machinery to efficiently sample from composite unnormalized densities sequentially and have the potential to amortize such solution-searching processes in CO, as well as generate diverse solution candidates. In this paper, we design Markov decision processes (MDPs) for different combinatorial problems and propose to train conditional GFlowNets to sample from the solution space. Efficient training techniques are also developed to benefit long-range credit assignment. Through extensive experiments on a variety of different CO tasks with synthetic and realistic data, we demonstrate that GFlowNet policies can efficiently find high-quality solutions.

This work introduces a novel graph neural networks (GNNs)-based method to predict stream water temperature and reduce model bias across locations of different income and education levels. Traditional physics-based models often have limited accuracy because they are necessarily approximations of reality. Recently, there has been an increasing interest of using GNNs in modeling complex water dynamics in stream networks. Despite their promise in improving the accuracy, GNNs can bring additional model bias through the aggregation process, where node features are updated by aggregating neighboring nodes. The bias can be especially pronounced when nodes with similar sensitive attributes are frequently connected. We introduce a new method that leverages physical knowledge to represent the node influence in GNNs, and then utilizes physics-based influence to refine the selection and weights over the neighbors. The objective is to facilitate equitable treatment over different sensitive groups in the graph aggregation, which helps reduce spatial bias over locations, especially for those in underprivileged groups. The results on the Delaware River Basin demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in preserving equitable performance across locations in different sensitive groups.

Generative flow networks (GFlowNets) are a family of algorithms for training a sequential sampler of discrete objects under an unnormalized target density and have been successfully used for various probabilistic modeling tasks. Existing training objectives for GFlowNets are either local to states or transitions, or propagate a reward signal over an entire sampling trajectory. We argue that these alternatives represent opposite ends of a gradient bias-variance tradeoff and propose a way to exploit this tradeoff to mitigate its harmful effects. Inspired by the TD(lambda) algorithm in reinforcement learning, we introduce subtrajectory balance or SubTB(lambda), a GFlowNet training objective that can learn from partial action subsequences of varying lengths. We show that SubTB(lambda) accelerates sampler convergence in previously studied and new environments and enables training GFlowNets in environments with longer action sequences and sparser reward landscapes than what was possible before. We also perform a comparative analysis of stochastic gradient dynamics, shedding light on the bias-variance tradeoff in GFlowNet training and the advantages of subtrajectory balance.

The Reinforcement Learning (RL) building blocks, i.e. Q-functions and policy networks, usually take elements from the cartesian product of two domains as input. In particular, the input of the Q-function is both the state and the action, and in multi-task problems (Meta-RL) the policy can take a state and a context. Standard architectures tend to ignore these variables' underlying interpretations and simply concatenate their features into a single vector. In this work, we argue that this choice may lead to poor gradient estimation in actor-critic algorithms and high variance learning steps in Meta-RL algorithms. To consider the interaction between the input variables, we suggest using a Hypernetwork architecture where a primary network determines the weights of a conditional dynamic network. We show that this approach improves the gradient approximation and reduces the learning step variance, which both accelerates learning and improves the final performance. We demonstrate a consistent improvement across different locomotion tasks and different algorithms both in RL (TD3 and SAC) and in Meta-RL (MAML and PEARL).

Graphon games have been introduced to study games with many players who interact through a weighted graph of interaction. By passing to the limit, a game with a continuum of players is obtained, in which the interactions are through a graphon. In this paper, we focus on a graphon game for optimal investment under relative performance criteria, and we propose a deep learning method. The method builds upon two key ingredients: first, a characterization of Nash equilibria by forward-backward stochastic differential equations and, second, recent advances of machine learning algorithms for stochastic differential games. We provide numerical experiments on two different financial models. In each model, we compare the effect of several graphons, which correspond to different structures of interactions.

Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often fail to model complex, non-linear interdependencies between multiple indices. This paper proposes a novel approach using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to represent global financial markets as dynamic graphs. The Temporal Graph Attention Network (Temporal GAT) combines Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Graph Attention Networks (GATs) to capture the temporal and structural dynamics of volatility spillovers. By utilizing correlation-based and volatility spillover indices, the Temporal GAT constructs directed graphs that enhance the accuracy of volatility predictions. Empirical results from a 15-year study of eight major global indices show that the Temporal GAT outperforms traditional GARCH models and other machine learning methods, particularly in short- to mid-term forecasts. The sensitivity and scenario-based analysis over a range of parameters and hyperparameters further demonstrate the significance of the proposed technique. Hence, this work highlights the potential of GNNs in modeling complex market behaviors, providing valuable insights for financial analysts and investors.

Deep neural policies have recently been installed in a diverse range of settings, from biotechnology to automated financial systems. However, the utilization of deep neural networks to approximate the value function leads to concerns on the decision boundary stability, in particular, with regard to the sensitivity of policy decision making to indiscernible, non-robust features due to highly non-convex and complex deep neural manifolds. These concerns constitute an obstruction to understanding the reasoning made by deep neural policies, and their foundational limitations. Hence, it is crucial to develop techniques that aim to understand the sensitivities in the learnt representations of neural network policies. To achieve this we introduce a theoretically founded method that provides a systematic analysis of the unstable directions in the deep neural policy decision boundary across both time and space. Through experiments in the Arcade Learning Environment (ALE), we demonstrate the effectiveness of our technique for identifying correlated directions of instability, and for measuring how sample shifts remold the set of sensitive directions in the neural policy landscape. Most importantly, we demonstrate that state-of-the-art robust training techniques yield learning of disjoint unstable directions, with dramatically larger oscillations over time, when compared to standard training. We believe our results reveal the fundamental properties of the decision process made by reinforcement learning policies, and can help in constructing reliable and robust deep neural policies.

This paper investigates the application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) for Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) financial portfolio management, with a specific focus on the potential benefits of ESG score-based market regulation. We leveraged an Advantage Actor-Critic (A2C) agent and conducted our experiments using environments encoded within the OpenAI Gym, adapted from the FinRL platform. The study includes a comparative analysis of DRL agent performance under standard Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) market conditions and a scenario where returns are regulated in line with company ESG scores. In the ESG-regulated market, grants were proportionally allotted to portfolios based on their returns and ESG scores, while taxes were assigned to portfolios below the mean ESG score of the index. The results intriguingly reveal that the DRL agent within the ESG-regulated market outperforms the standard DJIA market setup. Furthermore, we considered the inclusion of ESG variables in the agent state space, and compared this with scenarios where such data were excluded. This comparison adds to the understanding of the role of ESG factors in portfolio management decision-making. We also analyze the behaviour of the DRL agent in IBEX 35 and NASDAQ-100 indexes. Both the A2C and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithms were applied to these additional markets, providing a broader perspective on the generalization of our findings. This work contributes to the evolving field of ESG investing, suggesting that market regulation based on ESG scoring can potentially improve DRL-based portfolio management, with significant implications for sustainable investing strategies.

Recent advances in deep learning and large language models (LLMs) have facilitated the deployment of the mixture-of-experts (MoE) mechanism in the stock investment domain. While these models have demonstrated promising trading performance, they are often unimodal, neglecting the wealth of information available in other modalities, such as textual data. Moreover, the traditional neural network-based router selection mechanism fails to consider contextual and real-world nuances, resulting in suboptimal expert selection. To address these limitations, we propose LLMoE, a novel framework that employs LLMs as the router within the MoE architecture. Specifically, we replace the conventional neural network-based router with LLMs, leveraging their extensive world knowledge and reasoning capabilities to select experts based on historical price data and stock news. This approach provides a more effective and interpretable selection mechanism. Our experiments on multimodal real-world stock datasets demonstrate that LLMoE outperforms state-of-the-art MoE models and other deep neural network approaches. Additionally, the flexible architecture of LLMoE allows for easy adaptation to various downstream tasks.

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio with weights allocated to the stocks in a way that optimizes its return and the risk. This paper presents a systematic approach towards building two types of portfolios, optimum risk, and eigen, for four critical economic sectors of India. The prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. Sector-wise portfolios are built based on their ten most significant stocks. An LSTM model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Six months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on Jul 1, 2021, the actual returns and the LSTM-predicted returns for the portfolios are computed. A comparison of the predicted and the actual returns indicate a high accuracy level of the LSTM model.

This paper investigates the application of Feature-Enriched Generative Adversarial Networks (FE-GAN) in financial risk management, with a focus on improving the estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). FE-GAN enhances existing GANs architectures by incorporating an additional input sequence derived from preceding data to improve model performance. Two specialized GANs models, the Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (WGAN) and the Tail Generative Adversarial Network (Tail-GAN), were evaluated under the FE-GAN framework. The results demonstrate that FE-GAN significantly outperforms traditional architectures in both VaR and ES estimation. Tail-GAN, leveraging its task-specific loss function, consistently outperforms WGAN in ES estimation, while both models exhibit similar performance in VaR estimation. Despite these promising results, the study acknowledges limitations, including reliance on highly correlated temporal data and restricted applicability to other domains. Future research directions include exploring alternative input generation methods, dynamic forecasting models, and advanced neural network architectures to further enhance GANs-based financial risk estimation.

We study the problem of learning optimal policy from a set of discrete treatment options using observational data. We propose a piecewise linear neural network model that can balance strong prescriptive performance and interpretability, which we refer to as the prescriptive ReLU network, or P-ReLU. We show analytically that this model (i) partitions the input space into disjoint polyhedra, where all instances that belong to the same partition receive the same treatment, and (ii) can be converted into an equivalent prescriptive tree with hyperplane splits for interpretability. We demonstrate the flexibility of the P-ReLU network as constraints can be easily incorporated with minor modifications to the architecture. Through experiments, we validate the superior prescriptive accuracy of P-ReLU against competing benchmarks. Lastly, we present examples of interpretable prescriptive trees extracted from trained P-ReLUs using a real-world dataset, for both the unconstrained and constrained scenarios.

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the performances of three portfolio optimization approaches. Three approaches of portfolio optimization that are considered in this work are the mean-variance portfolio (MVP), hierarchical risk parity (HRP) portfolio, and reinforcement learning-based portfolio. The portfolios are trained and tested over several stock data and their performances are compared on their annual returns, annual risks, and Sharpe ratios. In the reinforcement learning-based portfolio design approach, the deep Q learning technique has been utilized. Due to the large number of possible states, the construction of the Q-table is done using a deep neural network. The historical prices of the 50 premier stocks from the Indian stock market, known as the NIFTY50 stocks, and several stocks from 10 important sectors of the Indian stock market are used to create the environment for training the agent.

Privacy restrictions hinder the sharing of real-world Water Distribution Network (WDN) models, limiting the application of emerging data-driven machine learning, which typically requires extensive observations. To address this challenge, we propose the dataset DiTEC-WDN that comprises 36,000 unique scenarios simulated over either short-term (24 hours) or long-term (1 year) periods. We constructed this dataset using an automated pipeline that optimizes crucial parameters (e.g., pressure, flow rate, and demand patterns), facilitates large-scale simulations, and records discrete, synthetic but hydraulically realistic states under standard conditions via rule validation and post-hoc analysis. With a total of 228 million generated graph-based states, DiTEC-WDN can support a variety of machine-learning tasks, including graph-level, node-level, and link-level regression, as well as time-series forecasting. This contribution, released under a public license, encourages open scientific research in the critical water sector, eliminates the risk of exposing sensitive data, and fulfills the need for a large-scale water distribution network benchmark for study comparisons and scenario analysis.

Deep Reinforcement Learning approaches to Online Portfolio Selection have grown in popularity in recent years. The sensitive nature of training Reinforcement Learning agents implies a need for extensive efforts in market representation, behavior objectives, and training processes, which have often been lacking in previous works. We propose a training and evaluation process to assess the performance of classical DRL algorithms for portfolio management. We found that most Deep Reinforcement Learning algorithms were not robust, with strategies generalizing poorly and degrading quickly during backtesting.

Portfolio optimization has been a broad and intense area of interest for quantitative and statistical finance researchers and financial analysts. It is a challenging task to design a portfolio of stocks to arrive at the optimized values of the return and risk. This paper presents an algorithmic approach for designing optimum risk and eigen portfolios for five thematic sectors of the NSE of India. The prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. Optimum risk and eigen portfolios for each sector are designed based on ten critical stocks from the sector. An LSTM model is designed for predicting future stock prices. Seven months after the portfolios were formed, on Aug 3, 2021, the actual returns of the portfolios are compared with the LSTM-predicted returns. The predicted and the actual returns indicate a very high-level accuracy of the LSTM model.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are one of the most popular approaches to using deep learning on graph-structured data, and they have shown state-of-the-art performances on a variety of tasks. However, according to a recent study, a careful choice of pooling functions, which are used for the aggregation and readout operations in GNNs, is crucial for enabling GNNs to extrapolate. Without proper choices of pooling functions, which varies across tasks, GNNs completely fail to generalize to out-of-distribution data, while the number of possible choices grows exponentially with the number of layers. In this paper, we present GNP, a L^p norm-like pooling function that is trainable end-to-end for any given task. Notably, GNP generalizes most of the widely-used pooling functions. We verify experimentally that simply using GNP for every aggregation and readout operation enables GNNs to extrapolate well on many node-level, graph-level, and set-related tasks; and GNP sometimes performs even better than the best-performing choices among existing pooling functions.

We introduce distributional dynamic programming (DP) methods for optimizing statistical functionals of the return distribution, with standard reinforcement learning as a special case. Previous distributional DP methods could optimize the same class of expected utilities as classic DP. To go beyond expected utilities, we combine distributional DP with stock augmentation, a technique previously introduced for classic DP in the context of risk-sensitive RL, where the MDP state is augmented with a statistic of the rewards obtained so far (since the first time step). We find that a number of recently studied problems can be formulated as stock-augmented return distribution optimization, and we show that we can use distributional DP to solve them. We analyze distributional value and policy iteration, with bounds and a study of what objectives these distributional DP methods can or cannot optimize. We describe a number of applications outlining how to use distributional DP to solve different stock-augmented return distribution optimization problems, for example maximizing conditional value-at-risk, and homeostatic regulation. To highlight the practical potential of stock-augmented return distribution optimization and distributional DP, we combine the core ideas of distributional value iteration with the deep RL agent DQN, and empirically evaluate it for solving instances of the applications discussed.

The optimal stopping problem is a category of decision problems with a specific constrained configuration. It is relevant to various real-world applications such as finance and management. To solve the optimal stopping problem, state-of-the-art algorithms in dynamic programming, such as the least-squares Monte Carlo (LSMC), are employed. This type of algorithm relies on path simulations using only the last price of the underlying asset as a state representation. Also, the LSMC was thinking for option valuation where risk-neutral probabilities can be employed to account for uncertainty. However, the general optimal stopping problem goals may not fit the requirements of the LSMC showing auto-correlated prices. We employ a data-driven method that uses Monte Carlo simulation to train and test artificial neural networks (ANN) to solve the optimal stopping problem. Using ANN to solve decision problems is not entirely new. We propose a different architecture that uses convolutional neural networks (CNN) to deal with the dimensionality problem that arises when we transform the whole history of prices into a Markovian state. We present experiments that indicate that our proposed architecture improves results over the previous implementations under specific simulated time series function sets. Lastly, we employ our proposed method to compare the optimal exercise of the financial options problem with the LSMC algorithm. Our experiments show that our method can capture more accurate exercise opportunities when compared to the LSMC. We have outstandingly higher (above 974\% improvement) expected payoff from these exercise policies under the many Monte Carlo simulations that used the real-world return database on the out-of-sample (test) data.

Risk-averse reinforcement learning finds application in various high-stakes fields. Unlike classical reinforcement learning, which aims to maximize expected returns, risk-averse agents choose policies that minimize risk, occasionally sacrificing expected value. These preferences can be framed through utility theory. We focus on the specific case of the exponential utility function, where we can derive the Bellman equations and employ various reinforcement learning algorithms with few modifications. However, these methods suffer from numerical instability due to the need for exponent computation throughout the process. To address this, we introduce a numerically stable and mathematically sound loss function based on the Itakura-Saito divergence for learning state-value and action-value functions. We evaluate our proposed loss function against established alternatives, both theoretically and empirically. In the experimental section, we explore multiple financial scenarios, some with known analytical solutions, and show that our loss function outperforms the alternatives.

This paper presents a novel risk-sensitive trading agent combining reinforcement learning and large language models (LLMs). We extend the Conditional Value-at-Risk Proximal Policy Optimization (CPPO) algorithm, by adding risk assessment and trading recommendation signals generated by a LLM from financial news. Our approach is backtested on the Nasdaq-100 index benchmark, using financial news data from the FNSPID dataset and the DeepSeek V3, Qwen 2.5 and Llama 3.3 language models. The code, data, and trading agents are available at: https://github.com/benstaf/FinRL_DeepSeek

Traditional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are effective for handling sequential data but have limitations such as gradient vanishing and difficulty in capturing long-term dependencies, which can impact their performance in dynamic and risky environments like stock trading. To address these limitations, this study explores the usage of the newly introduced Extended Long Short Term Memory (xLSTM) network in combination with a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach for automated stock trading. Our proposed method utilizes xLSTM networks in both actor and critic components, enabling effective handling of time series data and dynamic market environments. Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), with its ability to balance exploration and exploitation, is employed to optimize the trading strategy. Experiments were conducted using financial data from major tech companies over a comprehensive timeline, demonstrating that the xLSTM-based model outperforms LSTM-based methods in key trading evaluation metrics, including cumulative return, average profitability per trade, maximum earning rate, maximum pullback, and Sharpe ratio. These findings mark the potential of xLSTM for enhancing DRL-based stock trading systems.

Models with fewer parameters are necessary for the neural control of memory-limited, performant robots. Finding these smaller neural network architectures can be time-consuming. We propose HyperPPO, an on-policy reinforcement learning algorithm that utilizes graph hypernetworks to estimate the weights of multiple neural architectures simultaneously. Our method estimates weights for networks that are much smaller than those in common-use networks yet encode highly performant policies. We obtain multiple trained policies at the same time while maintaining sample efficiency and provide the user the choice of picking a network architecture that satisfies their computational constraints. We show that our method scales well - more training resources produce faster convergence to higher-performing architectures. We demonstrate that the neural policies estimated by HyperPPO are capable of decentralized control of a Crazyflie2.1 quadrotor. Website: https://sites.google.com/usc.edu/hyperppo

Natural intelligence processes experience as a continuous stream, sensing, acting, and learning moment-by-moment in real time. Streaming learning, the modus operandi of classic reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms like Q-learning and TD, mimics natural learning by using the most recent sample without storing it. This approach is also ideal for resource-constrained, communication-limited, and privacy-sensitive applications. However, in deep RL, learners almost always use batch updates and replay buffers, making them computationally expensive and incompatible with streaming learning. Although the prevalence of batch deep RL is often attributed to its sample efficiency, a more critical reason for the absence of streaming deep RL is its frequent instability and failure to learn, which we refer to as stream barrier. This paper introduces the stream-x algorithms, the first class of deep RL algorithms to overcome stream barrier for both prediction and control and match sample efficiency of batch RL. Through experiments in Mujoco Gym, DM Control Suite, and Atari Games, we demonstrate stream barrier in existing algorithms and successful stable learning with our stream-x algorithms: stream Q, stream AC, and stream TD, achieving the best model-free performance in DM Control Dog environments. A set of common techniques underlies the stream-x algorithms, enabling their success with a single set of hyperparameters and allowing for easy extension to other algorithms, thereby reviving streaming RL.

While bigger and deeper neural network architectures continue to advance the state-of-the-art for many computer vision tasks, real-world adoption of these networks is impeded by hardware and speed constraints. Conventional model compression methods attempt to address this problem by modifying the architecture manually or using pre-defined heuristics. Since the space of all reduced architectures is very large, modifying the architecture of a deep neural network in this way is a difficult task. In this paper, we tackle this issue by introducing a principled method for learning reduced network architectures in a data-driven way using reinforcement learning. Our approach takes a larger `teacher' network as input and outputs a compressed `student' network derived from the `teacher' network. In the first stage of our method, a recurrent policy network aggressively removes layers from the large `teacher' model. In the second stage, another recurrent policy network carefully reduces the size of each remaining layer. The resulting network is then evaluated to obtain a reward -- a score based on the accuracy and compression of the network. Our approach uses this reward signal with policy gradients to train the policies to find a locally optimal student network. Our experiments show that we can achieve compression rates of more than 10x for models such as ResNet-34 while maintaining similar performance to the input `teacher' network. We also present a valuable transfer learning result which shows that policies which are pre-trained on smaller `teacher' networks can be used to rapidly speed up training on larger `teacher' networks.

Generative flow networks (GFlowNets) are a family of algorithms that learn a generative policy to sample discrete objects x with non-negative reward R(x). Learning objectives guarantee the GFlowNet samples x from the target distribution p^*(x) propto R(x) when loss is globally minimized over all states or trajectories, but it is unclear how well they perform with practical limits on training resources. We introduce an efficient evaluation strategy to compare the learned sampling distribution to the target reward distribution. As flows can be underdetermined given training data, we clarify the importance of learned flows to generalization and matching p^*(x) in practice. We investigate how to learn better flows, and propose (i) prioritized replay training of high-reward x, (ii) relative edge flow policy parametrization, and (iii) a novel guided trajectory balance objective, and show how it can solve a substructure credit assignment problem. We substantially improve sample efficiency on biochemical design tasks.

Subgraph GNNs are provably expressive neural architectures that learn graph representations from sets of subgraphs. Unfortunately, their applicability is hampered by the computational complexity associated with performing message passing on many subgraphs. In this paper, we consider the problem of learning to select a small subset of the large set of possible subgraphs in a data-driven fashion. We first motivate the problem by proving that there are families of WL-indistinguishable graphs for which there exist efficient subgraph selection policies: small subsets of subgraphs that can already identify all the graphs within the family. We then propose a new approach, called Policy-Learn, that learns how to select subgraphs in an iterative manner. We prove that, unlike popular random policies and prior work addressing the same problem, our architecture is able to learn the efficient policies mentioned above. Our experimental results demonstrate that Policy-Learn outperforms existing baselines across a wide range of datasets.

Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large/small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics.

Generative flow networks (GFlowNets) are sequential sampling models trained to match a given distribution. GFlowNets have been successfully applied to various structured object generation tasks, sampling a diverse set of high-reward objects quickly. We propose expected flow networks (EFlowNets), which extend GFlowNets to stochastic environments. We show that EFlowNets outperform other GFlowNet formulations in stochastic tasks such as protein design. We then extend the concept of EFlowNets to adversarial environments, proposing adversarial flow networks (AFlowNets) for two-player zero-sum games. We show that AFlowNets learn to find above 80% of optimal moves in Connect-4 via self-play and outperform AlphaZero in tournaments.

This paper introduces StreamV2V, a diffusion model that achieves real-time streaming video-to-video (V2V) translation with user prompts. Unlike prior V2V methods using batches to process limited frames, we opt to process frames in a streaming fashion, to support unlimited frames. At the heart of StreamV2V lies a backward-looking principle that relates the present to the past. This is realized by maintaining a feature bank, which archives information from past frames. For incoming frames, StreamV2V extends self-attention to include banked keys and values and directly fuses similar past features into the output. The feature bank is continually updated by merging stored and new features, making it compact but informative. StreamV2V stands out for its adaptability and efficiency, seamlessly integrating with image diffusion models without fine-tuning. It can run 20 FPS on one A100 GPU, being 15x, 46x, 108x, and 158x faster than FlowVid, CoDeF, Rerender, and TokenFlow, respectively. Quantitative metrics and user studies confirm StreamV2V's exceptional ability to maintain temporal consistency.

This paper introduces PG-Rainbow, a novel algorithm that incorporates a distributional reinforcement learning framework with a policy gradient algorithm. Existing policy gradient methods are sample inefficient and rely on the mean of returns when calculating the state-action value function, neglecting the distributional nature of returns in reinforcement learning tasks. To address this issue, we use an Implicit Quantile Network that provides the quantile information of the distribution of rewards to the critic network of the Proximal Policy Optimization algorithm. We show empirical results that through the integration of reward distribution information into the policy network, the policy agent acquires enhanced capabilities to comprehensively evaluate the consequences of potential actions in a given state, facilitating more sophisticated and informed decision-making processes. We evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm in the Atari-2600 game suite, simulated via the Arcade Learning Environment (ALE).

This paper introduces Bayesian Flow Networks (BFNs), a new class of generative model in which the parameters of a set of independent distributions are modified with Bayesian inference in the light of noisy data samples, then passed as input to a neural network that outputs a second, interdependent distribution. Starting from a simple prior and iteratively updating the two distributions yields a generative procedure similar to the reverse process of diffusion models; however it is conceptually simpler in that no forward process is required. Discrete and continuous-time loss functions are derived for continuous, discretised and discrete data, along with sample generation procedures. Notably, the network inputs for discrete data lie on the probability simplex, and are therefore natively differentiable, paving the way for gradient-based sample guidance and few-step generation in discrete domains such as language modelling. The loss function directly optimises data compression and places no restrictions on the network architecture. In our experiments BFNs achieve competitive log-likelihoods for image modelling on dynamically binarized MNIST and CIFAR-10, and outperform all known discrete diffusion models on the text8 character-level language modelling task.

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) are amortized samplers that learn stochastic policies to sequentially generate compositional objects from a given unnormalized reward distribution. They can generate diverse sets of high-reward objects, which is an important consideration in scientific discovery tasks. However, as they are typically trained from a given extrinsic reward function, it remains an important open challenge about how to leverage the power of pre-training and train GFlowNets in an unsupervised fashion for efficient adaptation to downstream tasks. Inspired by recent successes of unsupervised pre-training in various domains, we introduce a novel approach for reward-free pre-training of GFlowNets. By framing the training as a self-supervised problem, we propose an outcome-conditioned GFlowNet (OC-GFN) that learns to explore the candidate space. Specifically, OC-GFN learns to reach any targeted outcomes, akin to goal-conditioned policies in reinforcement learning. We show that the pre-trained OC-GFN model can allow for a direct extraction of a policy capable of sampling from any new reward functions in downstream tasks. Nonetheless, adapting OC-GFN on a downstream task-specific reward involves an intractable marginalization over possible outcomes. We propose a novel way to approximate this marginalization by learning an amortized predictor enabling efficient fine-tuning. Extensive experimental results validate the efficacy of our approach, demonstrating the effectiveness of pre-training the OC-GFN, and its ability to swiftly adapt to downstream tasks and discover modes more efficiently. This work may serve as a foundation for further exploration of pre-training strategies in the context of GFlowNets.

With the emerging diffusion models, recently, text-to-video generation has aroused increasing attention. But an important bottleneck therein is that generative videos often tend to carry some flickers and artifacts. In this work, we propose a dual-stream diffusion net (DSDN) to improve the consistency of content variations in generating videos. In particular, the designed two diffusion streams, video content and motion branches, could not only run separately in their private spaces for producing personalized video variations as well as content, but also be well-aligned between the content and motion domains through leveraging our designed cross-transformer interaction module, which would benefit the smoothness of generated videos. Besides, we also introduce motion decomposer and combiner to faciliate the operation on video motion. Qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate that our method could produce amazing continuous videos with fewer flickers.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

Learning in strategy games (e.g. StarCraft, poker) requires the discovery of diverse policies. This is often achieved by iteratively training new policies against existing ones, growing a policy population that is robust to exploit. This iterative approach suffers from two issues in real-world games: a) under finite budget, approximate best-response operators at each iteration needs truncating, resulting in under-trained good-responses populating the population; b) repeated learning of basic skills at each iteration is wasteful and becomes intractable in the presence of increasingly strong opponents. In this work, we propose Neural Population Learning (NeuPL) as a solution to both issues. NeuPL offers convergence guarantees to a population of best-responses under mild assumptions. By representing a population of policies within a single conditional model, NeuPL enables transfer learning across policies. Empirically, we show the generality, improved performance and efficiency of NeuPL across several test domains. Most interestingly, we show that novel strategies become more accessible, not less, as the neural population expands.

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are typically trained by backpropagation in a batch learning setting, which requires the entire training data to be made available prior to the learning task. This is not scalable for many real-world scenarios where new data arrives sequentially in a stream form. We aim to address an open challenge of "Online Deep Learning" (ODL) for learning DNNs on the fly in an online setting. Unlike traditional online learning that often optimizes some convex objective function with respect to a shallow model (e.g., a linear/kernel-based hypothesis), ODL is significantly more challenging since the optimization of the DNN objective function is non-convex, and regular backpropagation does not work well in practice, especially for online learning settings. In this paper, we present a new online deep learning framework that attempts to tackle the challenges by learning DNN models of adaptive depth from a sequence of training data in an online learning setting. In particular, we propose a novel Hedge Backpropagation (HBP) method for online updating the parameters of DNN effectively, and validate the efficacy of our method on large-scale data sets, including both stationary and concept drifting scenarios.

We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key component: (i) clean values, (ii) initial margin and Collateral Valuation Adjustment (ColVA), (iii) Credit/Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA/DVA) together with Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and (iv) Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA). Because these layers depend on one another through collateral and default effects, a naive Monte Carlo approach would require deeply nested simulations, making the problem computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we use an iterative deep BSDE approach, handling each layer sequentially so that earlier outputs serve as inputs to the subsequent layers. Initial margin is computed via deep quantile regression to reflect margin requirements over the Margin Period of Risk. We also adopt a change-of-measure method that highlights rare but significant defaults of the bank or counterparty, ensuring that these events are accurately captured in the training process. We further extend Han and Long's (2020) a posteriori error analysis to BSDEs on bounded domains. Due to the random exit from the domain, we obtain an order of convergence of O(h^{1/4-epsilon}) rather than the usual O(h^{1/2}). Numerical experiments illustrate that this method drastically reduces computational demands and successfully scales to high-dimensional, non-symmetric portfolios. The results confirm its effectiveness and accuracy, offering a practical alternative to nested Monte Carlo simulations in multi-counterparty xVA analyses.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

We propose a learning algorithm for local routing policies that needs only a few data samples obtained from a single graph while generalizing to all random graphs in a standard model of wireless networks. We thus solve the all-pairs near-shortest path problem by training deep neural networks (DNNs) that efficiently and scalably learn routing policies that are local, i.e., they only consider node states and the states of neighboring nodes. Remarkably, one of these DNNs we train learns a policy that exactly matches the performance of greedy forwarding; another generally outperforms greedy forwarding. Our algorithm design exploits network domain knowledge in several ways: First, in the selection of input features and, second, in the selection of a ``seed graph'' and subsamples from its shortest paths. The leverage of domain knowledge provides theoretical explainability of why the seed graph and node subsampling suffice for learning that is efficient, scalable, and generalizable. Simulation-based results on uniform random graphs with diverse sizes and densities empirically corroborate that using samples generated from a few routing paths in a modest-sized seed graph quickly learns a model that is generalizable across (almost) all random graphs in the wireless network model.

Institutional investors have been increasing the allocation of the illiquid alternative assets such as private equity funds in their portfolios, yet there exists a very limited literature on cash flow forecasting of illiquid alternative assets. The net cash flow of private equity funds typically follow a J-curve pattern, however the timing and the size of the contributions and distributions depend on the investment opportunities. In this paper, we develop a benchmark model and present two novel approaches (direct vs. indirect) to predict the cash flows of private equity funds. We introduce a sliding window approach to apply on our cash flow data because different vintage year funds contain different lengths of cash flow information. We then pass the data to an LSTM/ GRU model to predict the future cash flows either directly or indirectly (based on the benchmark model). We further integrate macroeconomic indicators into our data, which allows us to consider the impact of market environment on cash flows and to apply stress testing. Our results indicate that the direct model is easier to implement compared to the benchmark model and the indirect model, but still the predicted cash flows align better with the actual cash flows. We also show that macroeconomic variables improve the performance of the direct model whereas the impact is not obvious on the indirect model.

Differentiable architecture search (DARTS) is an effective method for data-driven neural network design based on solving a bilevel optimization problem. Despite its success in many architecture search tasks, there are still some concerns about the accuracy of first-order DARTS and the efficiency of the second-order DARTS. In this paper, we formulate a single level alternative and a relaxed architecture search (RARTS) method that utilizes the whole dataset in architecture learning via both data and network splitting, without involving mixed second derivatives of the corresponding loss functions like DARTS. In our formulation of network splitting, two networks with different but related weights cooperate in search of a shared architecture. The advantage of RARTS over DARTS is justified by a convergence theorem and an analytically solvable model. Moreover, RARTS outperforms DARTS and its variants in accuracy and search efficiency, as shown in adequate experimental results. For the task of searching topological architecture, i.e., the edges and the operations, RARTS obtains a higher accuracy and 60\% reduction of computational cost than second-order DARTS on CIFAR-10. RARTS continues to out-perform DARTS upon transfer to ImageNet and is on par with recent variants of DARTS even though our innovation is purely on the training algorithm without modifying search space. For the task of searching width, i.e., the number of channels in convolutional layers, RARTS also outperforms the traditional network pruning benchmarks. Further experiments on the public architecture search benchmark like NATS-Bench also support the preeminence of RARTS.

Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs) are critical in many high-stakes applications, where decisions must optimize cumulative rewards while strictly adhering to complex nonlinear constraints. In domains such as power systems, finance, supply chains, and precision robotics, violating these constraints can result in significant financial or societal costs. Existing Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods often struggle with sample efficiency and effectiveness in finding feasible policies for highly and strictly constrained CMDPs, limiting their applicability in these environments. Stochastic dual dynamic programming is often used in practice on convex relaxations of the original problem, but they also encounter computational challenges and loss of optimality. This paper introduces a novel approach, Two-Stage Deep Decision Rules (TS-DDR), to efficiently train parametric actor policies using Lagrangian Duality. TS-DDR is a self-supervised learning algorithm that trains general decision rules (parametric policies) using stochastic gradient descent (SGD); its forward passes solve {\em deterministic} optimization problems to find feasible policies, and its backward passes leverage duality theory to train the parametric policy with closed-form gradients. TS-DDR inherits the flexibility and computational performance of deep learning methodologies to solve CMDP problems. Applied to the Long-Term Hydrothermal Dispatch (LTHD) problem using actual power system data from Bolivia, TS-DDR is shown to enhance solution quality and to reduce computation times by several orders of magnitude when compared to current state-of-the-art methods.

In recent years there have been many successes of using deep representations in reinforcement learning. Still, many of these applications use conventional architectures, such as convolutional networks, LSTMs, or auto-encoders. In this paper, we present a new neural network architecture for model-free reinforcement learning. Our dueling network represents two separate estimators: one for the state value function and one for the state-dependent action advantage function. The main benefit of this factoring is to generalize learning across actions without imposing any change to the underlying reinforcement learning algorithm. Our results show that this architecture leads to better policy evaluation in the presence of many similar-valued actions. Moreover, the dueling architecture enables our RL agent to outperform the state-of-the-art on the Atari 2600 domain.

Neural architecture search (NAS) has achieved remarkable results in deep neural network design. Differentiable architecture search converts the search over discrete architectures into a hyperparameter optimization problem which can be solved by gradient descent. However, questions have been raised regarding the effectiveness and generalizability of gradient methods for solving non-convex architecture hyperparameter optimization problems. In this paper, we propose L^{2}NAS, which learns to intelligently optimize and update architecture hyperparameters via an actor neural network based on the distribution of high-performing architectures in the search history. We introduce a quantile-driven training procedure which efficiently trains L^{2}NAS in an actor-critic framework via continuous-action reinforcement learning. Experiments show that L^{2}NAS achieves state-of-the-art results on NAS-Bench-201 benchmark as well as DARTS search space and Once-for-All MobileNetV3 search space. We also show that search policies generated by L^{2}NAS are generalizable and transferable across different training datasets with minimal fine-tuning.

Graph neural networks achieve high accuracy in link prediction by jointly leveraging graph topology and node attributes. Topology, however, is represented indirectly; state-of-the-art methods based on subgraph classification label nodes with distance to the target link, so that, although topological information is present, it is tempered by pooling. This makes it challenging to leverage features like loops and motifs associated with network formation mechanisms. We propose a link prediction algorithm based on a new pooling scheme called WalkPool. WalkPool combines the expressivity of topological heuristics with the feature-learning ability of neural networks. It summarizes a putative link by random walk probabilities of adjacent paths. Instead of extracting transition probabilities from the original graph, it computes the transition matrix of a "predictive" latent graph by applying attention to learned features; this may be interpreted as feature-sensitive topology fingerprinting. WalkPool can leverage unsupervised node features or be combined with GNNs and trained end-to-end. It outperforms state-of-the-art methods on all common link prediction benchmarks, both homophilic and heterophilic, with and without node attributes. Applying WalkPool to a set of unsupervised GNNs significantly improves prediction accuracy, suggesting that it may be used as a general-purpose graph pooling scheme.

Deep hedging is a promising direction in quantitative finance, incorporating models and techniques from deep learning research. While giving excellent hedging strategies, models inherently requires careful treatment in designing architectures for neural networks. To mitigate such difficulties, we introduce SigFormer, a novel deep learning model that combines the power of path signatures and transformers to handle sequential data, particularly in cases with irregularities. Path signatures effectively capture complex data patterns, while transformers provide superior sequential attention. Our proposed model is empirically compared to existing methods on synthetic data, showcasing faster learning and enhanced robustness, especially in the presence of irregular underlying price data. Additionally, we validate our model performance through a real-world backtest on hedging the SP 500 index, demonstrating positive outcomes.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are limited in their propagation operators. In many cases, these operators often contain non-negative elements only and are shared across channels, limiting the expressiveness of GNNs. Moreover, some GNNs suffer from over-smoothing, limiting their depth. On the other hand, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) can learn diverse propagation filters, and phenomena like over-smoothing are typically not apparent in CNNs. In this paper, we bridge these gaps by incorporating trainable channel-wise weighting factors omega to learn and mix multiple smoothing and sharpening propagation operators at each layer. Our generic method is called omegaGNN, and is easy to implement. We study two variants: omegaGCN and omegaGAT. For omegaGCN, we theoretically analyse its behaviour and the impact of omega on the obtained node features. Our experiments confirm these findings, demonstrating and explaining how both variants do not over-smooth. Additionally, we experiment with 15 real-world datasets on node- and graph-classification tasks, where our omegaGCN and omegaGAT perform on par with state-of-the-art methods.

There has been a recent surge in interest in the application of artificial intelligence to automated trading. Reinforcement learning has been applied to single- and multi-instrument use cases, such as market making or portfolio management. This paper proposes a new approach to framing cryptocurrency market making as a reinforcement learning challenge by introducing an event-based environment wherein an event is defined as a change in price greater or less than a given threshold, as opposed to by tick or time-based events (e.g., every minute, hour, day, etc.). Two policy-based agents are trained to learn a market making trading strategy using eight days of training data and evaluate their performance using 30 days of testing data. Limit order book data recorded from Bitmex exchange is used to validate this approach, which demonstrates improved profit and stability compared to a time-based approach for both agents when using a simple multi-layer perceptron neural network for function approximation and seven different reward functions.

We introduce a new paradigm for generative modeling built on Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs), allowing us to train CNFs at unprecedented scale. Specifically, we present the notion of Flow Matching (FM), a simulation-free approach for training CNFs based on regressing vector fields of fixed conditional probability paths. Flow Matching is compatible with a general family of Gaussian probability paths for transforming between noise and data samples -- which subsumes existing diffusion paths as specific instances. Interestingly, we find that employing FM with diffusion paths results in a more robust and stable alternative for training diffusion models. Furthermore, Flow Matching opens the door to training CNFs with other, non-diffusion probability paths. An instance of particular interest is using Optimal Transport (OT) displacement interpolation to define the conditional probability paths. These paths are more efficient than diffusion paths, provide faster training and sampling, and result in better generalization. Training CNFs using Flow Matching on ImageNet leads to consistently better performance than alternative diffusion-based methods in terms of both likelihood and sample quality, and allows fast and reliable sample generation using off-the-shelf numerical ODE solvers.

Realistic graphs contain both (1) rich self-features of nodes and (2) informative structures of neighborhoods, jointly handled by a Graph Neural Network (GNN) in the typical setup. We propose to decouple the two modalities by Mixture of weak and strong experts (Mowst), where the weak expert is a light-weight Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), and the strong expert is an off-the-shelf GNN. To adapt the experts' collaboration to different target nodes, we propose a "confidence" mechanism based on the dispersion of the weak expert's prediction logits. The strong expert is conditionally activated in the low-confidence region when either the node's classification relies on neighborhood information, or the weak expert has low model quality. We reveal interesting training dynamics by analyzing the influence of the confidence function on loss: our training algorithm encourages the specialization of each expert by effectively generating soft splitting of the graph. In addition, our "confidence" design imposes a desirable bias toward the strong expert to benefit from GNN's better generalization capability. Mowst is easy to optimize and achieves strong expressive power, with a computation cost comparable to a single GNN. Empirically, Mowst on 4 backbone GNN architectures show significant accuracy improvement on 6 standard node classification benchmarks, including both homophilous and heterophilous graphs (https://github.com/facebookresearch/mowst-gnn).

Recent deep-learning-based approaches to single-image reflection removal have shown promising advances, primarily for two reasons: 1) the utilization of recognition-pretrained features as inputs, and 2) the design of dual-stream interaction networks. However, according to the Information Bottleneck principle, high-level semantic clues tend to be compressed or discarded during layer-by-layer propagation. Additionally, interactions in dual-stream networks follow a fixed pattern across different layers, limiting overall performance. To address these limitations, we propose a novel architecture called Reversible Decoupling Network (RDNet), which employs a reversible encoder to secure valuable information while flexibly decoupling transmission- and reflection-relevant features during the forward pass. Furthermore, we customize a transmission-rate-aware prompt generator to dynamically calibrate features, further boosting performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of RDNet over existing SOTA methods on five widely-adopted benchmark datasets. Our code will be made publicly available.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are transforming the domain of Quantitative Trading (QT) through the deployment of advanced algorithms capable of sifting through extensive financial datasets to pinpoint lucrative investment openings. AI-driven models, particularly those employing ML techniques such as deep learning and reinforcement learning, have shown great prowess in predicting market trends and executing trades at a speed and accuracy that far surpass human capabilities. Its capacity to automate critical tasks, such as discerning market conditions and executing trading strategies, has been pivotal. However, persistent challenges exist in current QT methods, especially in effectively handling noisy and high-frequency financial data. Striking a balance between exploration and exploitation poses another challenge for AI-driven trading agents. To surmount these hurdles, our proposed solution, QTNet, introduces an adaptive trading model that autonomously formulates QT strategies through an intelligent trading agent. Incorporating deep reinforcement learning (DRL) with imitative learning methodologies, we bolster the proficiency of our model. To tackle the challenges posed by volatile financial datasets, we conceptualize the QT mechanism within the framework of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). Moreover, by embedding imitative learning, the model can capitalize on traditional trading tactics, nurturing a balanced synergy between discovery and utilization. For a more realistic simulation, our trading agent undergoes training using minute-frequency data sourced from the live financial market. Experimental findings underscore the model's proficiency in extracting robust market features and its adaptability to diverse market conditions.

Stock Price Trend Prediction (SPTP) based on Limit Order Book (LOB) data is a fundamental challenge in financial markets. Despite advances in deep learning, existing models fail to generalize across different market conditions and struggle to reliably predict short-term trends. Surprisingly, by adapting a simple MLP-based architecture to LOB, we show that we surpass SoTA performance; thus, challenging the necessity of complex architectures. Unlike past work that shows robustness issues, we propose TLOB, a transformer-based model that uses a dual attention mechanism to capture spatial and temporal dependencies in LOB data. This allows it to adaptively focus on the market microstructure, making it particularly effective for longer-horizon predictions and volatile market conditions. We also introduce a new labeling method that improves on previous ones, removing the horizon bias. We evaluate TLOB's effectiveness using the established FI-2010 benchmark, which exceeds the state-of-the-art by an average of 3.7 F1-score(\%). Additionally, TLOB shows improvements on Tesla and Intel with a 1.3 and 7.7 increase in F1-score(\%), respectively. Additionally, we empirically show how stock price predictability has declined over time (-6.68 absolute points in F1-score(\%)), highlighting the growing market efficiencies. Predictability must be considered in relation to transaction costs, so we experimented with defining trends using an average spread, reflecting the primary transaction cost. The resulting performance deterioration underscores the complexity of translating trend classification into profitable trading strategies. We argue that our work provides new insights into the evolving landscape of stock price trend prediction and sets a strong foundation for future advancements in financial AI. We release the code at https://github.com/LeonardoBerti00/TLOB.

Optimization problems over dynamic networks have been extensively studied and widely used in the past decades to formulate numerous real-world problems. However, (1) traditional optimization-based approaches do not scale to large networks, and (2) the design of good heuristics or approximation algorithms often requires significant manual trial-and-error. In this work, we argue that data-driven strategies can automate this process and learn efficient algorithms without compromising optimality. To do so, we present network control problems through the lens of reinforcement learning and propose a graph network-based framework to handle a broad class of problems. Instead of naively computing actions over high-dimensional graph elements, e.g., edges, we propose a bi-level formulation where we (1) specify a desired next state via RL, and (2) solve a convex program to best achieve it, leading to drastically improved scalability and performance. We further highlight a collection of desirable features to system designers, investigate design decisions, and present experiments on real-world control problems showing the utility, scalability, and flexibility of our framework.

AI and reinforcement learning (RL) have improved many areas, but are not yet widely adopted in economic policy design, mechanism design, or economics at large. At the same time, current economic methodology is limited by a lack of counterfactual data, simplistic behavioral models, and limited opportunities to experiment with policies and evaluate behavioral responses. Here we show that machine-learning-based economic simulation is a powerful policy and mechanism design framework to overcome these limitations. The AI Economist is a two-level, deep RL framework that trains both agents and a social planner who co-adapt, providing a tractable solution to the highly unstable and novel two-level RL challenge. From a simple specification of an economy, we learn rational agent behaviors that adapt to learned planner policies and vice versa. We demonstrate the efficacy of the AI Economist on the problem of optimal taxation. In simple one-step economies, the AI Economist recovers the optimal tax policy of economic theory. In complex, dynamic economies, the AI Economist substantially improves both utilitarian social welfare and the trade-off between equality and productivity over baselines. It does so despite emergent tax-gaming strategies, while accounting for agent interactions and behavioral change more accurately than economic theory. These results demonstrate for the first time that two-level, deep RL can be used for understanding and as a complement to theory for economic design, unlocking a new computational learning-based approach to understanding economic policy.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

We study the problem of training diffusion models to sample from a distribution with a given unnormalized density or energy function. We benchmark several diffusion-structured inference methods, including simulation-based variational approaches and off-policy methods (continuous generative flow networks). Our results shed light on the relative advantages of existing algorithms while bringing into question some claims from past work. We also propose a novel exploration strategy for off-policy methods, based on local search in the target space with the use of a replay buffer, and show that it improves the quality of samples on a variety of target distributions. Our code for the sampling methods and benchmarks studied is made public at https://github.com/GFNOrg/gfn-diffusion as a base for future work on diffusion models for amortized inference.

Generative Flow Networks or GFlowNets are related to Monte-Carlo Markov chain methods (as they sample from a distribution specified by an energy function), reinforcement learning (as they learn a policy to sample composed objects through a sequence of steps), generative models (as they learn to represent and sample from a distribution) and amortized variational methods (as they can be used to learn to approximate and sample from an otherwise intractable posterior, given a prior and a likelihood). They are trained to generate an object x through a sequence of steps with probability proportional to some reward function R(x) (or exp(-E(x)) with E(x) denoting the energy function), given at the end of the generative trajectory. Like for other RL settings where the reward is only given at the end, the efficiency of training and credit assignment may suffer when those trajectories are longer. With previous GFlowNet work, no learning was possible from incomplete trajectories (lacking a terminal state and the computation of the associated reward). In this paper, we consider the case where the energy function can be applied not just to terminal states but also to intermediate states. This is for example achieved when the energy function is additive, with terms available along the trajectory. We show how to reparameterize the GFlowNet state flow function to take advantage of the partial reward already accrued at each state. This enables a training objective that can be applied to update parameters even with incomplete trajectories. Even when complete trajectories are available, being able to obtain more localized credit and gradients is found to speed up training convergence, as demonstrated across many simulations.

Portfolio optimization has been an area that has attracted considerable attention from the financial research community. Designing a profitable portfolio is a challenging task involving precise forecasting of future stock returns and risks. This chapter presents a comparative study of three portfolio design approaches, the mean-variance portfolio (MVP), hierarchical risk parity (HRP)-based portfolio, and autoencoder-based portfolio. These three approaches to portfolio design are applied to the historical prices of stocks chosen from ten thematic sectors listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The portfolios are designed using the stock price data from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021, and their performances are tested on the out-of-sample data from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022. Extensive results are analyzed on the performance of the portfolios. It is observed that the performance of the MVP portfolio is the best on the out-of-sample data for the risk-adjusted returns. However, the autoencoder portfolios outperformed their counterparts on annual returns.

This paper sets forth a framework for deep reinforcement learning as applied to market making (DRLMM) for cryptocurrencies. Two advanced policy gradient-based algorithms were selected as agents to interact with an environment that represents the observation space through limit order book data, and order flow arrival statistics. Within the experiment, a forward-feed neural network is used as the function approximator and two reward functions are compared. The performance of each combination of agent and reward function is evaluated by daily and average trade returns. Using this DRLMM framework, this paper demonstrates the effectiveness of deep reinforcement learning in solving stochastic inventory control challenges market makers face.

Designing an optimum portfolio for allocating suitable weights to its constituent assets so that the return and risk associated with the portfolio are optimized is a computationally hard problem. The seminal work of Markowitz that attempted to solve the problem by estimating the future returns of the stocks is found to perform sub-optimally on real-world stock market data. This is because the estimation task becomes extremely challenging due to the stochastic and volatile nature of stock prices. This work illustrates three approaches to portfolio design minimizing the risk, optimizing the risk, and assigning equal weights to the stocks of a portfolio. Thirteen critical sectors listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India are first chosen. Three portfolios are designed following the above approaches choosing the top ten stocks from each sector based on their free-float market capitalization. The portfolios are designed using the historical prices of the stocks from Jan 1, 2017, to Dec 31, 2022. The portfolios are evaluated on the stock price data from Jan 1, 2022, to Dec 31, 2022. The performances of the portfolios are compared, and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified.

We seek to improve deep neural networks by generalizing the pooling operations that play a central role in current architectures. We pursue a careful exploration of approaches to allow pooling to learn and to adapt to complex and variable patterns. The two primary directions lie in (1) learning a pooling function via (two strategies of) combining of max and average pooling, and (2) learning a pooling function in the form of a tree-structured fusion of pooling filters that are themselves learned. In our experiments every generalized pooling operation we explore improves performance when used in place of average or max pooling. We experimentally demonstrate that the proposed pooling operations provide a boost in invariance properties relative to conventional pooling and set the state of the art on several widely adopted benchmark datasets; they are also easy to implement, and can be applied within various deep neural network architectures. These benefits come with only a light increase in computational overhead during training and a very modest increase in the number of model parameters.

Recent improvements in conditional generative modeling have made it possible to generate high-quality images from language descriptions alone. We investigate whether these methods can directly address the problem of sequential decision-making. We view decision-making not through the lens of reinforcement learning (RL), but rather through conditional generative modeling. To our surprise, we find that our formulation leads to policies that can outperform existing offline RL approaches across standard benchmarks. By modeling a policy as a return-conditional diffusion model, we illustrate how we may circumvent the need for dynamic programming and subsequently eliminate many of the complexities that come with traditional offline RL. We further demonstrate the advantages of modeling policies as conditional diffusion models by considering two other conditioning variables: constraints and skills. Conditioning on a single constraint or skill during training leads to behaviors at test-time that can satisfy several constraints together or demonstrate a composition of skills. Our results illustrate that conditional generative modeling is a powerful tool for decision-making.

Given a dataset on actions and resulting long-term rewards, a direct estimation approach fits value functions that minimize prediction error on the training data. Temporal difference learning (TD) methods instead fit value functions by minimizing the degree of temporal inconsistency between estimates made at successive time-steps. Focusing on finite state Markov chains, we provide a crisp asymptotic theory of the statistical advantages of this approach. First, we show that an intuitive inverse trajectory pooling coefficient completely characterizes the percent reduction in mean-squared error of value estimates. Depending on problem structure, the reduction could be enormous or nonexistent. Next, we prove that there can be dramatic improvements in estimates of the difference in value-to-go for two states: TD's errors are bounded in terms of a novel measure - the problem's trajectory crossing time - which can be much smaller than the problem's time horizon.

Dealing with multi-task trade-offs during inference can be addressed via Pareto Front Learning (PFL) methods that parameterize the Pareto Front with a single model, contrary to traditional Multi-Task Learning (MTL) approaches that optimize for a single trade-off which has to be decided prior to training. However, recent PFL methodologies suffer from limited scalability, slow convergence and excessive memory requirements compared to MTL approaches while exhibiting inconsistent mappings from preference space to objective space. In this paper, we introduce PaLoRA, a novel parameter-efficient method that augments the original model with task-specific low-rank adapters and continuously parameterizes the Pareto Front in their convex hull. Our approach dedicates the original model and the adapters towards learning general and task-specific features, respectively. Additionally, we propose a deterministic sampling schedule of preference vectors that reinforces this division of labor, enabling faster convergence and scalability to real world networks. Our experimental results show that PaLoRA outperforms MTL and PFL baselines across various datasets, scales to large networks and provides a continuous parameterization of the Pareto Front, reducing the memory overhead 23.8-31.7 times compared with competing PFL baselines in scene understanding benchmarks.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

The expanding computational costs and limited resources underscore the critical need for budgeted-iteration training, which aims to achieve optimal learning within predetermined iteration budgets.While learning rate schedules fundamentally govern the performance of different networks and tasks, particularly in budgeted-iteration scenarios, their design remains largely heuristic, lacking theoretical foundations.In addition, the optimal learning rate schedule requires extensive trial-and-error selection, making the training process inefficient.In this work, we propose the Unified Budget-Aware (UBA) schedule, a theoretically grounded learning rate schedule that consistently outperforms commonly-used schedules among diverse architectures and tasks under different constrained training budgets.First, we bridge the gap by constructing a novel training budget-aware optimization framework, which explicitly accounts for the robustness to landscape curvature variations.From this framework, we derive the UBA schedule, controlled by a single hyper-parameter varphi that provides a trade-off between flexibility and simplicity, eliminating the need for per-network numerical optimization. Moreover, we establish a theoretical connection between varphi and the condition number, adding interpretation and justification to our approach. Besides, we prove the convergence for different values of varphi.We offer practical guidelines for its selection via theoretical analysis and empirical results.xtensive experimental results show that UBA consistently surpasses the commonly-used schedules across diverse vision and language tasks, spanning network architectures (e.g., ResNet, OLMo) and scales, under different training-iteration budgets.

In this work, we present a new network design paradigm. Our goal is to help advance the understanding of network design and discover design principles that generalize across settings. Instead of focusing on designing individual network instances, we design network design spaces that parametrize populations of networks. The overall process is analogous to classic manual design of networks, but elevated to the design space level. Using our methodology we explore the structure aspect of network design and arrive at a low-dimensional design space consisting of simple, regular networks that we call RegNet. The core insight of the RegNet parametrization is surprisingly simple: widths and depths of good networks can be explained by a quantized linear function. We analyze the RegNet design space and arrive at interesting findings that do not match the current practice of network design. The RegNet design space provides simple and fast networks that work well across a wide range of flop regimes. Under comparable training settings and flops, the RegNet models outperform the popular EfficientNet models while being up to 5x faster on GPUs.

Designing an optimum portfolio that allocates weights to its constituent stocks in a way that achieves the best trade-off between the return and the risk is a challenging research problem. The classical mean-variance theory of portfolio proposed by Markowitz is found to perform sub-optimally on the real-world stock market data since the error in estimation for the expected returns adversely affects the performance of the portfolio. This paper presents three approaches to portfolio design, viz, the minimum risk portfolio, the optimum risk portfolio, and the Eigen portfolio, for seven important sectors of the Indian stock market. The daily historical prices of the stocks are scraped from Yahoo Finance website from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Three portfolios are built for each of the seven sectors chosen for this study, and the portfolios are analyzed on the training data based on several metrics such as annualized return and risk, weights assigned to the constituent stocks, the correlation heatmaps, and the principal components of the Eigen portfolios. Finally, the optimum risk portfolios and the Eigen portfolios for all sectors are tested on their return over a period of a six-month period. The performances of the portfolios are compared and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified.

Neural network approaches for meta-learning distributions over functions have desirable properties such as increased flexibility and a reduced complexity of inference. Building on the successes of denoising diffusion models for generative modelling, we propose Neural Diffusion Processes (NDPs), a novel approach that learns to sample from a rich distribution over functions through its finite marginals. By introducing a custom attention block we are able to incorporate properties of stochastic processes, such as exchangeability, directly into the NDP's architecture. We empirically show that NDPs can capture functional distributions close to the true Bayesian posterior, demonstrating that they can successfully emulate the behaviour of Gaussian processes and surpass the performance of neural processes. NDPs enable a variety of downstream tasks, including regression, implicit hyperparameter marginalisation, non-Gaussian posterior prediction and global optimisation.

This paper studies generative flow networks (GFlowNets) to sample objects from the Boltzmann energy distribution via a sequence of actions. In particular, we focus on improving GFlowNet with partial inference: training flow functions with the evaluation of the intermediate states or transitions. To this end, the recently developed forward-looking GFlowNet reparameterizes the flow functions based on evaluating the energy of intermediate states. However, such an evaluation of intermediate energies may (i) be too expensive or impossible to evaluate and (ii) even provide misleading training signals under large energy fluctuations along the sequence of actions. To resolve this issue, we propose learning energy decompositions for GFlowNets (LED-GFN). Our main idea is to (i) decompose the energy of an object into learnable potential functions defined on state transitions and (ii) reparameterize the flow functions using the potential functions. In particular, to produce informative local credits, we propose to regularize the potential to change smoothly over the sequence of actions. It is also noteworthy that training GFlowNet with our learned potential can preserve the optimal policy. We empirically verify the superiority of LED-GFN in five problems including the generation of unstructured and maximum independent sets, molecular graphs, and RNA sequences.

We introduce new differentially private (DP) mechanisms for gradient-based machine learning (ML) with multiple passes (epochs) over a dataset, substantially improving the achievable privacy-utility-computation tradeoffs. We formalize the problem of DP mechanisms for adaptive streams with multiple participations and introduce a non-trivial extension of online matrix factorization DP mechanisms to our setting. This includes establishing the necessary theory for sensitivity calculations and efficient computation of optimal matrices. For some applications like >!! 10,000 SGD steps, applying these optimal techniques becomes computationally expensive. We thus design an efficient Fourier-transform-based mechanism with only a minor utility loss. Extensive empirical evaluation on both example-level DP for image classification and user-level DP for language modeling demonstrate substantial improvements over all previous methods, including the widely-used DP-SGD . Though our primary application is to ML, our main DP results are applicable to arbitrary linear queries and hence may have much broader applicability.

Although Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) methods can learn effective policies for challenging problems such as Atari games and robotics tasks, algorithms are complex and training times are often long. This study investigates how evolution strategies (ES) perform compared to gradient-based deep reinforcement learning methods. We use ES to optimize the weights of a neural network via neuroevolution, performing direct policy search. We benchmark both regular networks and policy networks consisting of a single linear layer from observations to actions; for three classical ES methods and for three gradient-based methods such as PPO. Our results reveal that ES can find effective linear policies for many RL benchmark tasks, in contrast to DRL methods that can only find successful policies using much larger networks, suggesting that current benchmarks are easier to solve than previously assumed. Interestingly, also for higher complexity tasks, ES achieves results comparable to gradient-based DRL algorithms. Furthermore, we find that by directly accessing the memory state of the game, ES are able to find successful policies in Atari, outperforming DQN. While gradient-based methods have dominated the field in recent years, ES offers an alternative that is easy to implement, parallelize, understand, and tune.

Transfer learning has gained significant attention in recent deep learning research due to its ability to accelerate convergence and enhance performance on new tasks. However, its success is often contingent on the similarity between source and target data, and training on numerous datasets can be costly, leading to blind selection of pretrained models with limited insight into their effectiveness. To address these challenges, we introduce D2NWG, a diffusion-based neural network weights generation technique that efficiently produces high-performing weights for transfer learning, conditioned on the target dataset. Our method extends generative hyper-representation learning to recast the latent diffusion paradigm for neural network weights generation, learning the weight distributions of models pretrained on various datasets. This allows for automatic generation of weights that generalize well across both seen and unseen tasks, outperforming state-of-the-art meta-learning methods and pretrained models. Moreover, our approach is scalable to large architectures such as large language models (LLMs), overcoming the limitations of current parameter generation techniques that rely on task-specific model collections or access to original training data. By modeling the parameter distribution of LLMs, D2NWG enables task-specific parameter generation without requiring additional fine-tuning or large collections of model variants. Extensive experiments show that our method consistently enhances the performance of diverse base models, regardless of their size or complexity, positioning it as a robust solution for scalable transfer learning.

The core challenge of high-dimensional and expensive black-box optimization (BBO) is how to obtain better performance faster with little function evaluation cost. The essence of the problem is how to design an efficient optimization strategy tailored to the target task. This paper designs a powerful optimization framework to automatically learn the optimization strategies from the target or cheap surrogate task without human intervention. However, current methods are weak for this due to poor representation of optimization strategy. To achieve this, 1) drawing on the mechanism of genetic algorithm, we propose a deep neural network framework called B2Opt, which has a stronger representation of optimization strategies based on survival of the fittest; 2) B2Opt can utilize the cheap surrogate functions of the target task to guide the design of the efficient optimization strategies. Compared to the state-of-the-art BBO baselines, B2Opt can achieve multiple orders of magnitude performance improvement with less function evaluation cost. We validate our proposal on high-dimensional synthetic functions and two real-world applications. We also find that deep B2Opt performs better than shallow ones.

Large-scale AI model training divides work across thousands of GPUs, then synchronizes gradients across them at each step. This incurs a significant network burden that only centralized, monolithic clusters can support, driving up infrastructure costs and straining power systems. We propose Decentralized Diffusion Models, a scalable framework for distributing diffusion model training across independent clusters or datacenters by eliminating the dependence on a centralized, high-bandwidth networking fabric. Our method trains a set of expert diffusion models over partitions of the dataset, each in full isolation from one another. At inference time, the experts ensemble through a lightweight router. We show that the ensemble collectively optimizes the same objective as a single model trained over the whole dataset. This means we can divide the training burden among a number of "compute islands," lowering infrastructure costs and improving resilience to localized GPU failures. Decentralized diffusion models empower researchers to take advantage of smaller, more cost-effective and more readily available compute like on-demand GPU nodes rather than central integrated systems. We conduct extensive experiments on ImageNet and LAION Aesthetics, showing that decentralized diffusion models FLOP-for-FLOP outperform standard diffusion models. We finally scale our approach to 24 billion parameters, demonstrating that high-quality diffusion models can now be trained with just eight individual GPU nodes in less than a week.

Stock market prediction has remained an extremely challenging problem for many decades owing to its inherent high volatility and low information noisy ratio. Existing solutions based on machine learning or deep learning demonstrate superior performance by employing a single model trained on the entire stock dataset to generate predictions across all types of stocks. However, due to the significant variations in stock styles and market trends, a single end-to-end model struggles to fully capture the differences in these stylized stock features, leading to relatively inaccurate predictions for all types of stocks. In this paper, we present MIGA, a novel Mixture of Expert with Group Aggregation framework designed to generate specialized predictions for stocks with different styles by dynamically switching between distinct style experts. To promote collaboration among different experts in MIGA, we propose a novel inner group attention architecture, enabling experts within the same group to share information and thereby enhancing the overall performance of all experts. As a result, MIGA significantly outperforms other end-to-end models on three Chinese Stock Index benchmarks including CSI300, CSI500, and CSI1000. Notably, MIGA-Conv reaches 24 % excess annual return on CSI300 benchmark, surpassing the previous state-of-the-art model by 8% absolute. Furthermore, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of mixture of experts for stock market prediction, providing valuable insights for future research.

Fleets of robots ingest massive amounts of heterogeneous streaming data silos generated by interacting with their environments, far more than what can be stored or transmitted with ease. At the same time, teams of robots should co-acquire diverse skills through their heterogeneous experiences in varied settings. How can we enable such fleet-level learning without having to transmit or centralize fleet-scale data? In this paper, we investigate policy merging (PoMe) from such distributed heterogeneous datasets as a potential solution. To efficiently merge policies in the fleet setting, we propose FLEET-MERGE, an instantiation of distributed learning that accounts for the permutation invariance that arises when parameterizing the control policies with recurrent neural networks. We show that FLEET-MERGE consolidates the behavior of policies trained on 50 tasks in the Meta-World environment, with good performance on nearly all training tasks at test time. Moreover, we introduce a novel robotic tool-use benchmark, FLEET-TOOLS, for fleet policy learning in compositional and contact-rich robot manipulation tasks, to validate the efficacy of FLEET-MERGE on the benchmark.

Ensuring alignment of language models' outputs with human preferences is critical to guarantee a useful, safe, and pleasant user experience. Thus, human alignment has been extensively studied recently and several methods such as Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), Direct Policy Optimisation (DPO) and Sequence Likelihood Calibration (SLiC) have emerged. In this paper, our contribution is two-fold. First, we show the equivalence between two recent alignment methods, namely Identity Policy Optimisation (IPO) and Nash Mirror Descent (Nash-MD). Second, we introduce a generalisation of IPO, named IPO-MD, that leverages the regularised sampling approach proposed by Nash-MD. This equivalence may seem surprising at first sight, since IPO is an offline method whereas Nash-MD is an online method using a preference model. However, this equivalence can be proven when we consider the online version of IPO, that is when both generations are sampled by the online policy and annotated by a trained preference model. Optimising the IPO loss with such a stream of data becomes then equivalent to finding the Nash equilibrium of the preference model through self-play. Building on this equivalence, we introduce the IPO-MD algorithm that generates data with a mixture policy (between the online and reference policy) similarly as the general Nash-MD algorithm. We compare online-IPO and IPO-MD to different online versions of existing losses on preference data such as DPO and SLiC on a summarisation task.

Learning to play optimally against any mixture over a diverse set of strategies is of important practical interests in competitive games. In this paper, we propose simplex-NeuPL that satisfies two desiderata simultaneously: i) learning a population of strategically diverse basis policies, represented by a single conditional network; ii) using the same network, learn best-responses to any mixture over the simplex of basis policies. We show that the resulting conditional policies incorporate prior information about their opponents effectively, enabling near optimal returns against arbitrary mixture policies in a game with tractable best-responses. We verify that such policies behave Bayes-optimally under uncertainty and offer insights in using this flexibility at test time. Finally, we offer evidence that learning best-responses to any mixture policies is an effective auxiliary task for strategic exploration, which, by itself, can lead to more performant populations.

Stock markets play an important role in the global economy, where accurate stock price predictions can lead to significant financial returns. While existing transformer-based models have outperformed long short-term memory networks and convolutional neural networks in financial time series prediction, their high computational complexity and memory requirements limit their practicality for real-time trading and long-sequence data processing. To address these challenges, we propose SAMBA, an innovative framework for stock return prediction that builds on the Mamba architecture and integrates graph neural networks. SAMBA achieves near-linear computational complexity by utilizing a bidirectional Mamba block to capture long-term dependencies in historical price data and employing adaptive graph convolution to model dependencies between daily stock features. Our experimental results demonstrate that SAMBA significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baseline models in prediction accuracy, maintaining low computational complexity. The code and datasets are available at github.com/Ali-Meh619/SAMBA.

In recent years, large-scale pre-trained diffusion models have demonstrated their outstanding capabilities in image and video generation tasks. However, existing models tend to produce visual objects commonly found in the training dataset, which diverges from user input prompts. The underlying reason behind the inaccurate generated results lies in the model's difficulty in sampling from specific intervals of the initial noise distribution corresponding to the prompt. Moreover, it is challenging to directly optimize the initial distribution, given that the diffusion process involves multiple denoising steps. In this paper, we introduce a Fine-tuning Initial Noise Distribution (FIND) framework with policy optimization, which unleashes the powerful potential of pre-trained diffusion networks by directly optimizing the initial distribution to align the generated contents with user-input prompts. To this end, we first reformulate the diffusion denoising procedure as a one-step Markov decision process and employ policy optimization to directly optimize the initial distribution. In addition, a dynamic reward calibration module is proposed to ensure training stability during optimization. Furthermore, we introduce a ratio clipping algorithm to utilize historical data for network training and prevent the optimized distribution from deviating too far from the original policy to restrain excessive optimization magnitudes. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in both text-to-image and text-to-video tasks, surpassing SOTA methods in achieving consistency between prompts and the generated content. Our method achieves 10 times faster than the SOTA approach. Our homepage is available at https://github.com/vpx-ecnu/FIND-website.

We present a general convergent class of reinforcement learning algorithms that is founded on two distinct principles: (1) mapping value estimates to a different space using arbitrary functions from a broad class, and (2) linearly decomposing the reward signal into multiple channels. The first principle enables incorporating specific properties into the value estimator that can enhance learning. The second principle, on the other hand, allows for the value function to be represented as a composition of multiple utility functions. This can be leveraged for various purposes, e.g. dealing with highly varying reward scales, incorporating a priori knowledge about the sources of reward, and ensemble learning. Combining the two principles yields a general blueprint for instantiating convergent algorithms by orchestrating diverse mapping functions over multiple reward channels. This blueprint generalizes and subsumes algorithms such as Q-Learning, Log Q-Learning, and Q-Decomposition. In addition, our convergence proof for this general class relaxes certain required assumptions in some of these algorithms. Based on our theory, we discuss several interesting configurations as special cases. Finally, to illustrate the potential of the design space that our theory opens up, we instantiate a particular algorithm and evaluate its performance on the Atari suite.

Robust optimization provides a mathematical framework for modeling and solving decision-making problems under worst-case uncertainty. This work addresses two-stage robust optimization (2RO) problems (also called adjustable robust optimization), wherein first-stage and second-stage decisions are made before and after uncertainty is realized, respectively. This results in a nested min-max-min optimization problem which is extremely challenging computationally, especially when the decisions are discrete. We propose Neur2RO, an efficient machine learning-driven instantiation of column-and-constraint generation (CCG), a classical iterative algorithm for 2RO. Specifically, we learn to estimate the value function of the second-stage problem via a novel neural network architecture that is easy to optimize over by design. Embedding our neural network into CCG yields high-quality solutions quickly as evidenced by experiments on two 2RO benchmarks, knapsack and capital budgeting. For knapsack, Neur2RO finds solutions that are within roughly 2% of the best-known values in a few seconds compared to the three hours of the state-of-the-art exact branch-and-price algorithm; for larger and more complex instances, Neur2RO finds even better solutions. For capital budgeting, Neur2RO outperforms three variants of the k-adaptability algorithm, particularly on the largest instances, with a 10 to 100-fold reduction in solution time. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/khalil-research/Neur2RO.

We introduce a novel approach for concept blending in pretrained text-to-image diffusion models, aiming to generate images at the intersection of multiple text prompts. At each time step during diffusion denoising, our algorithm forecasts predictions w.r.t. the generated image and makes informed text conditioning decisions. Central to our method is the unique analogy between diffusion models, which are rooted in non-equilibrium thermodynamics, and the Black-Scholes model for financial option pricing. By drawing parallels between key variables in both domains, we derive a robust algorithm for concept blending that capitalizes on the Markovian dynamics of the Black-Scholes framework. Our text-based concept blending algorithm is data-efficient, meaning it does not need additional training. Furthermore, it operates without human intervention or hyperparameter tuning. We highlight the benefits of our approach by comparing it qualitatively and quantitatively to other text based concept blending techniques, including linear interpolation, alternating prompts, step-wise prompt switching, and CLIP-guided prompt selection across various scenarios such as single object per text prompt, multiple objects per text prompt and objects against backgrounds. Our work shows that financially inspired techniques can enhance text-to-image concept blending in generative AI, paving the way for broader innovation. Code is available at https://github.com/divyakraman/BlackScholesDiffusion2024.

In many applications of machine learning, like drug discovery and material design, the goal is to generate candidates that simultaneously maximize a set of objectives. As these objectives are often conflicting, there is no single candidate that simultaneously maximizes all objectives, but rather a set of Pareto-optimal candidates where one objective cannot be improved without worsening another. Moreover, in practice, these objectives are often under-specified, making the diversity of candidates a key consideration. The existing multi-objective optimization methods focus predominantly on covering the Pareto front, failing to capture diversity in the space of candidates. Motivated by the success of GFlowNets for generation of diverse candidates in a single objective setting, in this paper we consider Multi-Objective GFlowNets (MOGFNs). MOGFNs consist of a novel Conditional GFlowNet which models a family of single-objective sub-problems derived by decomposing the multi-objective optimization problem. Our work is the first to empirically demonstrate conditional GFlowNets. Through a series of experiments on synthetic and benchmark tasks, we empirically demonstrate that MOGFNs outperform existing methods in terms of Hypervolume, R2-distance and candidate diversity. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of MOGFNs over existing methods in active learning settings. Finally, we supplement our empirical results with a careful analysis of each component of MOGFNs.

Representation learning methods have revolutionized machine learning on networks by converting discrete network structures into continuous domains. However, dynamic networks that evolve over time pose new challenges. To address this, dynamic representation learning methods have gained attention, offering benefits like reduced learning time and improved accuracy by utilizing temporal information. T-batching is a valuable technique for training dynamic network models that reduces training time while preserving vital conditions for accurate modeling. However, we have identified a limitation in the training loss function used with t-batching. Through mathematical analysis, we propose two alternative loss functions that overcome these issues, resulting in enhanced training performance. We extensively evaluate the proposed loss functions on synthetic and real-world dynamic networks. The results consistently demonstrate superior performance compared to the original loss function. Notably, in a real-world network characterized by diverse user interaction histories, the proposed loss functions achieved more than 26.9% enhancement in Mean Reciprocal Rank (MRR) and more than 11.8% improvement in Recall@10. These findings underscore the efficacy of the proposed loss functions in dynamic network modeling.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Based on the weight-sharing mechanism, one-shot NAS methods train a supernet and then inherit the pre-trained weights to evaluate sub-models, largely reducing the search cost. However, several works have pointed out that the shared weights suffer from different gradient descent directions during training. And we further find that large gradient variance occurs during supernet training, which degrades the supernet ranking consistency. To mitigate this issue, we propose to explicitly minimize the gradient variance of the supernet training by jointly optimizing the sampling distributions of PAth and DAta (PA&DA). We theoretically derive the relationship between the gradient variance and the sampling distributions, and reveal that the optimal sampling probability is proportional to the normalized gradient norm of path and training data. Hence, we use the normalized gradient norm as the importance indicator for path and training data, and adopt an importance sampling strategy for the supernet training. Our method only requires negligible computation cost for optimizing the sampling distributions of path and data, but achieves lower gradient variance during supernet training and better generalization performance for the supernet, resulting in a more consistent NAS. We conduct comprehensive comparisons with other improved approaches in various search spaces. Results show that our method surpasses others with more reliable ranking performance and higher accuracy of searched architectures, showing the effectiveness of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/ShunLu91/PA-DA.

We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework under a broad class of risk objectives, characterized by convex scoring functions. This class covers many common risk measures, such as variance, Expected Shortfall, entropic Value-at-Risk, and mean-risk utility. To resolve the time-inconsistency issue, we consider an augmented state space and an auxiliary variable and recast the problem as a two-state optimization problem. We propose a customized Actor-Critic algorithm and establish some theoretical approximation guarantees. A key theoretical contribution is that our results do not require the Markov decision process to be continuous. Additionally, we propose an auxiliary variable sampling method inspired by the alternating minimization algorithm, which is convergent under certain conditions. We validate our approach in simulation experiments with a financial application in statistical arbitrage trading, demonstrating the effectiveness of the algorithm.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

Uniform random exploration in decision-making systems supports off-policy learning via supervision but incurs high regret, making it impractical for many applications. Conversely, non-uniform exploration offers better immediate performance but lacks support for off-policy learning. Recent research suggests that regression oracles can bridge this gap by combining non-uniform exploration with supervised learning. In this paper, we analyze these approaches within a real-world industrial context at Adyen, a large global payments processor characterized by batch logged delayed feedback, short-term memory, and dynamic action spaces under the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework. Our analysis reveals that while regression oracles significantly improve performance, they introduce challenges due to rigid algorithmic assumptions. Specifically, we observe that as a policy improves, subsequent generations may perform worse due to shifts in the reward distribution and increased class imbalance in the training data. This degradation occurs de spite improvements in other aspects of the training data, leading to decreased performance in successive policy iterations. We further explore the long-term impact of regression oracles, identifying a potential "oscillation effect." This effect arises when regression oracles influence probability estimates and the realizability of subsequent policy models, leading to fluctuations in performance across iterations. Our findings highlight the need for more adaptable algorithms that can leverage the benefits of regression oracles without introducing instability in policy performance over time.

In many real-world settings, agents must learn from an offline dataset gathered by some prior behavior policy. Such a setting naturally leads to distribution shift between the behavior policy and the target policy being trained - requiring policy conservatism to avoid instability and overestimation bias. Autoregressive world models offer a different solution to this by generating synthetic, on-policy experience. However, in practice, model rollouts must be severely truncated to avoid compounding error. As an alternative, we propose policy-guided diffusion. Our method uses diffusion models to generate entire trajectories under the behavior distribution, applying guidance from the target policy to move synthetic experience further on-policy. We show that policy-guided diffusion models a regularized form of the target distribution that balances action likelihood under both the target and behavior policies, leading to plausible trajectories with high target policy probability, while retaining a lower dynamics error than an offline world model baseline. Using synthetic experience from policy-guided diffusion as a drop-in substitute for real data, we demonstrate significant improvements in performance across a range of standard offline reinforcement learning algorithms and environments. Our approach provides an effective alternative to autoregressive offline world models, opening the door to the controllable generation of synthetic training data.

Training multiple tasks jointly in one deep network yields reduced latency during inference and better performance over the single-task counterpart by sharing certain layers of a network. However, over-sharing a network could erroneously enforce over-generalization, causing negative knowledge transfer across tasks. Prior works rely on human intuition or pre-computed task relatedness scores for ad hoc branching structures. They provide sub-optimal end results and often require huge efforts for the trial-and-error process. In this work, we present an automated multi-task learning algorithm that learns where to share or branch within a network, designing an effective network topology that is directly optimized for multiple objectives across tasks. Specifically, we propose a novel tree-structured design space that casts a tree branching operation as a gumbel-softmax sampling procedure. This enables differentiable network splitting that is end-to-end trainable. We validate the proposed method on controlled synthetic data, CelebA, and Taskonomy.

We propose a unified framework to study policy evaluation (PE) and the associated temporal difference (TD) methods for reinforcement learning in continuous time and space. We show that PE is equivalent to maintaining the martingale condition of a process. From this perspective, we find that the mean--square TD error approximates the quadratic variation of the martingale and thus is not a suitable objective for PE. We present two methods to use the martingale characterization for designing PE algorithms. The first one minimizes a "martingale loss function", whose solution is proved to be the best approximation of the true value function in the mean--square sense. This method interprets the classical gradient Monte-Carlo algorithm. The second method is based on a system of equations called the "martingale orthogonality conditions" with test functions. Solving these equations in different ways recovers various classical TD algorithms, such as TD(lambda), LSTD, and GTD. Different choices of test functions determine in what sense the resulting solutions approximate the true value function. Moreover, we prove that any convergent time-discretized algorithm converges to its continuous-time counterpart as the mesh size goes to zero, and we provide the convergence rate. We demonstrate the theoretical results and corresponding algorithms with numerical experiments and applications.

The vast majority of Reinforcement Learning methods is largely impacted by the computation effort and data requirements needed to obtain effective estimates of action-value functions, which in turn determine the quality of the overall performance and the sample-efficiency of the learning procedure. Typically, action-value functions are estimated through an iterative scheme that alternates the application of an empirical approximation of the Bellman operator and a subsequent projection step onto a considered function space. It has been observed that this scheme can be potentially generalized to carry out multiple iterations of the Bellman operator at once, benefiting the underlying learning algorithm. However, till now, it has been challenging to effectively implement this idea, especially in high-dimensional problems. In this paper, we introduce iterated Q-Network (i-QN), a novel principled approach that enables multiple consecutive Bellman updates by learning a tailored sequence of action-value functions where each serves as the target for the next. We show that i-QN is theoretically grounded and that it can be seamlessly used in value-based and actor-critic methods. We empirically demonstrate the advantages of i-QN in Atari 2600 games and MuJoCo continuous control problems.

Generating time series data using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) presents several prevalent challenges, such as slow convergence, information loss in embedding spaces, instability, and performance variability depending on the series length. To tackle these obstacles, we introduce a robust framework aimed at addressing and mitigating these issues effectively. This advanced framework integrates the benefits of an Autoencoder-generated embedding space with the adversarial training dynamics of GANs. This framework benefits from a time series-based loss function and oversight from a supervisory network, both of which capture the stepwise conditional distributions of the data effectively. The generator functions within the latent space, while the discriminator offers essential feedback based on the feature space. Moreover, we introduce an early generation algorithm and an improved neural network architecture to enhance stability and ensure effective generalization across both short and long time series. Through joint training, our framework consistently outperforms existing benchmarks, generating high-quality time series data across a range of real and synthetic datasets with diverse characteristics.

Recent progress in Graph Neural Networks has resulted in wide adoption by many applications, including recommendation systems. The reason for Graph Neural Networks' superiority over other approaches is that many problems in recommendation systems can be naturally modeled as graphs, where nodes can be either users or items and edges represent preference relationships. In current Graph Neural Network approaches, nodes are represented with a static vector learned at training time. This static vector might only be suitable to capture some of the nuances of users or items they define. To overcome this limitation, we propose using a recently proposed model inspired by category theory: Sheaf Neural Networks. Sheaf Neural Networks, and its connected Laplacian, can address the previous problem by associating every node (and edge) with a vector space instead than a single vector. The vector space representation is richer and allows picking the proper representation at inference time. This approach can be generalized for different related tasks on graphs and achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of F1-Score@N in collaborative filtering and Hits@20 in link prediction. For collaborative filtering, the approach is evaluated on the MovieLens 100K with a 5.1% improvement, on MovieLens 1M with a 5.4% improvement and on Book-Crossing with a 2.8% improvement, while for link prediction on the ogbl-ddi dataset with a 1.6% refinement with respect to the respective baselines.

The recent rapid progress in (self) supervised learning models is in large part predicted by empirical scaling laws: a model's performance scales proportionally to its size. Analogous scaling laws remain elusive for reinforcement learning domains, however, where increasing the parameter count of a model often hurts its final performance. In this paper, we demonstrate that incorporating Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) modules, and in particular Soft MoEs (Puigcerver et al., 2023), into value-based networks results in more parameter-scalable models, evidenced by substantial performance increases across a variety of training regimes and model sizes. This work thus provides strong empirical evidence towards developing scaling laws for reinforcement learning.

Financial asset recommendation (FAR) is a sub-domain of recommender systems which identifies useful financial securities for investors, with the expectation that they will invest capital on the recommended assets. FAR solutions analyse and learn from multiple data sources, including time series pricing data, customer profile information and expectations, as well as past investments. However, most models have been developed over proprietary datasets, making a comparison over a common benchmark impossible. In this paper, we aim to solve this problem by introducing FAR-Trans, the first public dataset for FAR, containing pricing information and retail investor transactions acquired from a large European financial institution. We also provide a bench-marking comparison between eleven FAR algorithms over the data for use as future baselines. The dataset can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.5525/gla.researchdata.1658 .

Large Language Models have shown remarkable efficacy in generating streaming data such as text and audio, thanks to their temporally uni-directional attention mechanism, which models correlations between the current token and previous tokens. However, video streaming remains much less explored, despite a growing need for live video processing. State-of-the-art video diffusion models leverage bi-directional temporal attention to model the correlations between the current frame and all the surrounding (i.e. including future) frames, which hinders them from processing streaming videos. To address this problem, we present Live2Diff, the first attempt at designing a video diffusion model with uni-directional temporal attention, specifically targeting live streaming video translation. Compared to previous works, our approach ensures temporal consistency and smoothness by correlating the current frame with its predecessors and a few initial warmup frames, without any future frames. Additionally, we use a highly efficient denoising scheme featuring a KV-cache mechanism and pipelining, to facilitate streaming video translation at interactive framerates. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed attention mechanism and pipeline, outperforming previous methods in terms of temporal smoothness and/or efficiency.

The wide popularity of short videos on social media poses new opportunities and challenges to optimize recommender systems on the video-sharing platforms. Users sequentially interact with the system and provide complex and multi-faceted responses, including watch time and various types of interactions with multiple videos. One the one hand, the platforms aims at optimizing the users' cumulative watch time (main goal) in long term, which can be effectively optimized by Reinforcement Learning. On the other hand, the platforms also needs to satisfy the constraint of accommodating the responses of multiple user interactions (auxiliary goals) such like, follow, share etc. In this paper, we formulate the problem of short video recommendation as a Constrained Markov Decision Process (CMDP). We find that traditional constrained reinforcement learning algorithms can not work well in this setting. We propose a novel two-stage constrained actor-critic method: At stage one, we learn individual policies to optimize each auxiliary signal. At stage two, we learn a policy to (i) optimize the main signal and (ii) stay close to policies learned at the first stage, which effectively guarantees the performance of this main policy on the auxiliaries. Through extensive offline evaluations, we demonstrate effectiveness of our method over alternatives in both optimizing the main goal as well as balancing the others. We further show the advantage of our method in live experiments of short video recommendations, where it significantly outperforms other baselines in terms of both watch time and interactions. Our approach has been fully launched in the production system to optimize user experiences on the platform.

As post-training processes utilize increasingly large datasets and base models continue to grow in size, the computational demands and implementation challenges of existing algorithms are escalating significantly. In this paper, we propose modeling the changes at the logits level during post-training using a separate neural network (i.e., the value network). After training this network on a small base model using demonstrations, this network can be seamlessly integrated with other pre-trained models during inference, enables them to achieve similar capability enhancements. We systematically investigate the best practices for this paradigm in terms of pre-training weights and connection schemes. We demonstrate that the resulting value network has broad transferability across pre-trained models of different parameter sizes within the same family, models undergoing continuous pre-training within the same family, and models with different vocabularies across families. In certain cases, it can achieve performance comparable to full-parameter fine-tuning. Furthermore, we explore methods to enhance the transferability of the value model and prevent overfitting to the base model used during training.

Backpropagation, which uses the chain rule, is the de-facto standard algorithm for optimizing neural networks nowadays. Recently, Hinton (2022) proposed the forward-forward algorithm, a promising alternative that optimizes neural nets layer-by-layer, without propagating gradients throughout the network. Although such an approach has several advantages over back-propagation and shows promising results, the fact that each layer is being trained independently limits the optimization process. Specifically, it prevents the network's layers from collaborating to learn complex and rich features. In this work, we study layer collaboration in the forward-forward algorithm. We show that the current version of the forward-forward algorithm is suboptimal when considering information flow in the network, resulting in a lack of collaboration between layers of the network. We propose an improved version that supports layer collaboration to better utilize the network structure, while not requiring any additional assumptions or computations. We empirically demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed version when considering both information flow and objective metrics. Additionally, we provide a theoretical motivation for the proposed method, inspired by functional entropy theory.

Climate-economic modeling under uncertainty presents significant computational challenges that may limit policymakers' ability to address climate change effectively. This paper explores neural network-based approaches for solving high-dimensional optimal control problems arising from models that incorporate ambiguity aversion in climate mitigation decisions. We develop a continuous-time endogenous-growth economic model that accounts for multiple mitigation pathways, including emission-free capital and carbon intensity reductions. Given the inherent complexity and high dimensionality of these models, traditional numerical methods become computationally intractable. We benchmark several neural network architectures against finite-difference generated solutions, evaluating their ability to capture the dynamic interactions between uncertainty, technology transitions, and optimal climate policy. Our findings demonstrate that appropriate neural architecture selection significantly impacts both solution accuracy and computational efficiency when modeling climate-economic systems under uncertainty. These methodological advances enable more sophisticated modeling of climate policy decisions, allowing for better representation of technology transitions and uncertainty-critical elements for developing effective mitigation strategies in the face of climate change.

This paper introduces a novel Hamiltonian-inspired neural network approach to credit scoring, designed to address the challenges of class imbalance and out-of-time (OOT) prediction in financial risk management. Drawing from concepts in Hamiltonian mechanics, we develop a symplectic optimizer and a new loss function to capture the complex dynamics of credit risk evolution. Using the Freddie Mac Single-Family Loan-Level Dataset, we evaluate our model's performance against other machine learning approaches. Our method shows superior discriminative power in OOT scenarios, as measured by the Area Under the Curve (AUC), indicating better ranking ability and robustness to class imbalance. The Hamiltonian-inspired approach shows particular strength in maintaining consistent performance between in-sample and OOT test sets, suggesting improved generalization to future, unseen data. These findings suggest that physics-inspired techniques offer a promising direction for developing more robust and reliable credit scoring models, particularly in uncertain economic situations.

We introduce NeuralProphet, a successor to Facebook Prophet, which set an industry standard for explainable, scalable, and user-friendly forecasting frameworks. With the proliferation of time series data, explainable forecasting remains a challenging task for business and operational decision making. Hybrid solutions are needed to bridge the gap between interpretable classical methods and scalable deep learning models. We view Prophet as a precursor to such a solution. However, Prophet lacks local context, which is essential for forecasting the near-term future and is challenging to extend due to its Stan backend. NeuralProphet is a hybrid forecasting framework based on PyTorch and trained with standard deep learning methods, making it easy for developers to extend the framework. Local context is introduced with auto-regression and covariate modules, which can be configured as classical linear regression or as Neural Networks. Otherwise, NeuralProphet retains the design philosophy of Prophet and provides the same basic model components. Our results demonstrate that NeuralProphet produces interpretable forecast components of equivalent or superior quality to Prophet on a set of generated time series. NeuralProphet outperforms Prophet on a diverse collection of real-world datasets. For short to medium-term forecasts, NeuralProphet improves forecast accuracy by 55 to 92 percent.

MDPs with low-rank transitions -- that is, the transition matrix can be factored into the product of two matrices, left and right -- is a highly representative structure that enables tractable learning. The left matrix enables expressive function approximation for value-based learning and has been studied extensively. In this work, we instead investigate sample-efficient learning with density features, i.e., the right matrix, which induce powerful models for state-occupancy distributions. This setting not only sheds light on leveraging unsupervised learning in RL, but also enables plug-in solutions for convex RL. In the offline setting, we propose an algorithm for off-policy estimation of occupancies that can handle non-exploratory data. Using this as a subroutine, we further devise an online algorithm that constructs exploratory data distributions in a level-by-level manner. As a central technical challenge, the additive error of occupancy estimation is incompatible with the multiplicative definition of data coverage. In the absence of strong assumptions like reachability, this incompatibility easily leads to exponential error blow-up, which we overcome via novel technical tools. Our results also readily extend to the representation learning setting, when the density features are unknown and must be learned from an exponentially large candidate set.

Deep learning classifiers face significant challenges when dealing with heterogeneous multi-modal and multi-organ biomedical datasets. The low-level feature distinguishability limited to imaging-modality hinders the classifiers' ability to learn high-level semantic relationships, resulting in sub-optimal performance. To address this issue, image augmentation strategies are employed as regularization techniques. While additive noise input during network training is a well-established augmentation as regularization method, modern pipelines often favor more robust techniques such as dropout and weight decay. This preference stems from the observation that combining these established techniques with noise input can adversely affect model performance. In this study, we propose a novel pretraining pipeline that learns to generate conditional noise mask specifically tailored to improve performance on multi-modal and multi-organ datasets. As a reinforcement learning algorithm, our approach employs a dual-component system comprising a very light-weight policy network that learns to sample conditional noise using a differentiable beta distribution as well as a classifier network. The policy network is trained using the reinforce algorithm to generate image-specific noise masks that regularize the classifier during pretraining. A key aspect is that the policy network's role is limited to obtaining an intermediate (or heated) model before fine-tuning. During inference, the policy network is omitted, allowing direct comparison between the baseline and noise-regularized models. We conducted experiments and related analyses on RadImageNet datasets. Results demonstrate that fine-tuning the intermediate models consistently outperforms conventional training algorithms on both classification and generalization to unseen concept tasks.

Techniques for automatically designing deep neural network architectures such as reinforcement learning based approaches have recently shown promising results. However, their success is based on vast computational resources (e.g. hundreds of GPUs), making them difficult to be widely used. A noticeable limitation is that they still design and train each network from scratch during the exploration of the architecture space, which is highly inefficient. In this paper, we propose a new framework toward efficient architecture search by exploring the architecture space based on the current network and reusing its weights. We employ a reinforcement learning agent as the meta-controller, whose action is to grow the network depth or layer width with function-preserving transformations. As such, the previously validated networks can be reused for further exploration, thus saves a large amount of computational cost. We apply our method to explore the architecture space of the plain convolutional neural networks (no skip-connections, branching etc.) on image benchmark datasets (CIFAR-10, SVHN) with restricted computational resources (5 GPUs). Our method can design highly competitive networks that outperform existing networks using the same design scheme. On CIFAR-10, our model without skip-connections achieves 4.23\% test error rate, exceeding a vast majority of modern architectures and approaching DenseNet. Furthermore, by applying our method to explore the DenseNet architecture space, we are able to achieve more accurate networks with fewer parameters.

We introduce a novel neural network-based algorithm to compute optimal transport (OT) plans for general cost functionals. In contrast to common Euclidean costs, i.e., ell^1 or ell^2, such functionals provide more flexibility and allow using auxiliary information, such as class labels, to construct the required transport map. Existing methods for general costs are discrete and have limitations in practice, i.e. they do not provide an out-of-sample estimation. We address the challenge of designing a continuous OT approach for general costs that generalizes to new data points in high-dimensional spaces, such as images. Additionally, we provide the theoretical error analysis for our recovered transport plans. As an application, we construct a cost functional to map data distributions while preserving the class-wise structure.

The quest for Continual Learning (CL) seeks to empower neural networks with the ability to learn and adapt incrementally. Central to this pursuit is addressing the stability-plasticity dilemma, which involves striking a balance between two conflicting objectives: preserving previously learned knowledge and acquiring new knowledge. While numerous CL methods aim to achieve this trade-off, they often overlook the impact of network architecture on stability and plasticity, restricting the trade-off to the parameter level. In this paper, we delve into the conflict between stability and plasticity at the architectural level. We reveal that under an equal parameter constraint, deeper networks exhibit better plasticity, while wider networks are characterized by superior stability. To address this architectural-level dilemma, we introduce a novel framework denoted Dual-Arch, which serves as a plug-in component for CL. This framework leverages the complementary strengths of two distinct and independent networks: one dedicated to plasticity and the other to stability. Each network is designed with a specialized and lightweight architecture, tailored to its respective objective. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Dual-Arch enhances the performance of existing CL methods while being up to 87% more compact in terms of parameters.

Off-policy reinforcement learning (RL) has proven to be a powerful framework for guiding agents' actions in environments with stochastic rewards and unknown or noisy state dynamics. In many real-world settings, these agents must operate in multiple environments, each with slightly different dynamics. For example, we may be interested in developing policies to guide medical treatment for patients with and without a given disease, or policies to navigate curriculum design for students with and without a learning disability. Here, we introduce nested policy fitted Q-iteration (NFQI), an RL framework that finds optimal policies in environments that exhibit such a structure. Our approach develops a nested Q-value function that takes advantage of the shared structure between two groups of observations from two separate environments while allowing their policies to be distinct from one another. We find that NFQI yields policies that rely on relevant features and perform at least as well as a policy that does not consider group structure. We demonstrate NFQI's performance using an OpenAI Gym environment and a clinical decision making RL task. Our results suggest that NFQI can develop policies that are better suited to many real-world clinical environments.

This paper introduces KAMoE, a novel Mixture of Experts (MoE) framework based on Gated Residual Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (GRKAN). We propose GRKAN as an alternative to the traditional gating function, aiming to enhance efficiency and interpretability in MoE modeling. Through extensive experiments on digital asset markets and real estate valuation, we demonstrate that KAMoE consistently outperforms traditional MoE architectures across various tasks and model types. Our results show that GRKAN exhibits superior performance compared to standard Gating Residual Networks, particularly in LSTM-based models for sequential tasks. We also provide insights into the trade-offs between model complexity and performance gains in MoE and KAMoE architectures.

Downsampling layers, including pooling and strided convolutions, are crucial components of the convolutional neural network architecture that determine both the granularity/scale of image feature analysis as well as the receptive field size of a given layer. To fully understand this problem, we analyse the performance of models independently trained with each pooling configurations on CIFAR10, using a ResNet20 network, and show that the position of the downsampling layers can highly influence the performance of a network and predefined downsampling configurations are not optimal. Network Architecture Search (NAS) might be used to optimize downsampling configurations as an hyperparameter. However, we find that common one-shot NAS based on a single SuperNet does not work for this problem. We argue that this is because a SuperNet trained for finding the optimal pooling configuration fully shares its parameters among all pooling configurations. This makes its training hard, because learning some configurations can harm the performance of others. Therefore, we propose a balanced mixture of SuperNets that automatically associates pooling configurations to different weight models and helps to reduce the weight-sharing and inter-influence of pooling configurations on the SuperNet parameters. We evaluate our proposed approach on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, as well as Food101 and show that in all cases, our model outperforms other approaches and improves over the default pooling configurations.

We introduce TimeMCL, a method leveraging the Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) paradigm to forecast multiple plausible time series futures. Our approach employs a neural network with multiple heads and utilizes the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss to promote diversity among predictions. MCL has recently gained attention due to its simplicity and ability to address ill-posed and ambiguous tasks. We propose an adaptation of this framework for time-series forecasting, presenting it as an efficient method to predict diverse futures, which we relate to its implicit quantization objective. We provide insights into our approach using synthetic data and evaluate it on real-world time series, demonstrating its promising performance at a light computational cost.

Neural networks (NN) achieve remarkable results in various tasks, but lack key characteristics: interpretability, support for categorical features, and lightweight implementations suitable for edge devices. While ongoing efforts aim to address these challenges, Gradient Boosting Trees (GBT) inherently meet these requirements. As a result, GBTs have become the go-to method for supervised learning tasks in many real-world applications and competitions. However, their application in online learning scenarios, notably in reinforcement learning (RL), has been limited. In this work, we bridge this gap by introducing Gradient-Boosting RL (GBRL), a framework that extends the advantages of GBT to the RL domain. Using the GBRL framework, we implement various actor-critic algorithms and compare their performance with their NN counterparts. Inspired by shared backbones in NN we introduce a tree-sharing approach for policy and value functions with distinct learning rates, enhancing learning efficiency over millions of interactions. GBRL achieves competitive performance across a diverse array of tasks, excelling in domains with structured or categorical features. Additionally, we present a high-performance, GPU-accelerated implementation that integrates seamlessly with widely-used RL libraries (available at https://github.com/NVlabs/gbrl). GBRL expands the toolkit for RL practitioners, demonstrating the viability and promise of GBT within the RL paradigm, particularly in domains characterized by structured or categorical features.

In modern large-scale deep learning, a prevalent and effective workflow for solving low-data problems is adapting powerful pre-trained foundation models (FMs) to new tasks via parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT). However, while empirically effective, the resulting solutions lack generalisation guarantees to certify their accuracy - which may be required for ethical or legal reasons prior to deployment in high-importance applications. In this paper we develop a novel transfer learning approach that is designed to facilitate non-vacuous learning theoretic generalisation guarantees for downstream tasks, even in the low-shot regime. Specifically, we first use upstream tasks to train a distribution over PEFT parameters. We then learn the downstream task by a sample-and-evaluate procedure -- sampling plausible PEFTs from the trained diffusion model and selecting the one with the highest likelihood on the downstream data. Crucially, this confines our model hypothesis to a finite set of PEFT samples. In contrast to learning in the typical continuous hypothesis spaces of neural network weights, this facilitates tighter risk certificates. We instantiate our bound and show non-trivial generalization guarantees compared to existing learning approaches which lead to vacuous bounds in the low-shot regime.

Portfolio optimization has been an area of research that has attracted a lot of attention from researchers and financial analysts. Designing an optimum portfolio is a complex task since it not only involves accurate forecasting of future stock returns and risks but also needs to optimize them. This paper presents a systematic approach to portfolio optimization using two approaches, the hierarchical risk parity algorithm and the Eigen portfolio on seven sectors of the Indian stock market. The portfolios are built following the two approaches to historical stock prices from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. The portfolio performances are evaluated on the test data from Jan 1, 2021, to Nov 1, 2021. The backtesting results of the portfolios indicate that the performance of the HRP portfolio is superior to that of its Eigen counterpart on both training and test data for the majority of the sectors studied.

Simulated annealing (SA) is a stochastic global optimisation technique applicable to a wide range of discrete and continuous variable problems. Despite its simplicity, the development of an effective SA optimiser for a given problem hinges on a handful of carefully handpicked components; namely, neighbour proposal distribution and temperature annealing schedule. In this work, we view SA from a reinforcement learning perspective and frame the proposal distribution as a policy, which can be optimised for higher solution quality given a fixed computational budget. We demonstrate that this Neural SA with such a learnt proposal distribution, parametrised by small equivariant neural networks, outperforms SA baselines on a number of problems: Rosenbrock's function, the Knapsack problem, the Bin Packing problem, and the Travelling Salesperson problem. We also show that Neural SA scales well to large problems - generalising to significantly larger problems than the ones seen during training - while achieving comparable performance to popular off-the-shelf solvers and other machine learning methods in terms of solution quality and wall-clock time.

In this study, we propose Feature-aligned N-BEATS as a domain generalization model for univariate time series forecasting problems. The proposed model is an extension of the doubly residual stacking architecture of N-BEATS (Oreshkin et al. [34]) into a representation learning framework. The model is a new structure that involves marginal feature probability measures (i.e., pushforward measures of multiple source domains) induced by the intricate composition of residual operators of N-BEATS in each stack and aligns them stack-wise via an entropic regularized Wasserstein distance referred to as the Sinkhorn divergence (Genevay et al. [14]). The loss function consists of a typical forecasting loss for multiple source domains and an alignment loss calculated with the Sinkhorn divergence, which allows the model to learn invariant features stack-wise across multiple source data sequences while retaining N-BEATS's interpretable design. We conduct a comprehensive experimental evaluation of the proposed approach and the results demonstrate the model's forecasting and generalization capabilities in comparison with methods based on the original N-BEATS.

Recent works have successfully demonstrated that sparse deep reinforcement learning agents can be competitive against their dense counterparts. This opens up opportunities for reinforcement learning applications in fields where inference time and memory requirements are cost-sensitive or limited by hardware. Until now, dense-to-sparse methods have relied on hand-designed sparsity schedules that are not synchronized with the agent's learning pace. Crucially, the final sparsity level is chosen as a hyperparameter, which requires careful tuning as setting it too high might lead to poor performances. In this work, we address these shortcomings by crafting a dense-to-sparse algorithm that we name Eau De Q-Network (EauDeQN). To increase sparsity at the agent's learning pace, we consider multiple online networks with different sparsity levels, where each online network is trained from a shared target network. At each target update, the online network with the smallest loss is chosen as the next target network, while the other networks are replaced by a pruned version of the chosen network. We evaluate the proposed approach on the Atari 2600 benchmark and the MuJoCo physics simulator, showing that EauDeQN reaches high sparsity levels while keeping performances high.

In collaborative learning with streaming data, nodes (e.g., organizations) jointly and continuously learn a machine learning (ML) model by sharing the latest model updates computed from their latest streaming data. For the more resourceful nodes to be willing to share their model updates, they need to be fairly incentivized. This paper explores an incentive design that guarantees fairness so that nodes receive rewards commensurate to their contributions. Our approach leverages an explore-then-exploit formulation to estimate the nodes' contributions (i.e., exploration) for realizing our theoretically guaranteed fair incentives (i.e., exploitation). However, we observe a "rich get richer" phenomenon arising from the existing approaches to guarantee fairness and it discourages the participation of the less resourceful nodes. To remedy this, we additionally preserve asymptotic equality, i.e., less resourceful nodes achieve equal performance eventually to the more resourceful/"rich" nodes. We empirically demonstrate in two settings with real-world streaming data: federated online incremental learning and federated reinforcement learning, that our proposed approach outperforms existing baselines in fairness and learning performance while remaining competitive in preserving equality.

We tackle the problem of sampling from intractable high-dimensional density functions, a fundamental task that often appears in machine learning and statistics. We extend recent sampling-based approaches that leverage controlled stochastic processes to model approximate samples from these target densities. The main drawback of these approaches is that the training objective requires full trajectories to compute, resulting in sluggish credit assignment issues due to use of entire trajectories and a learning signal present only at the terminal time. In this work, we present Diffusion Generative Flow Samplers (DGFS), a sampling-based framework where the learning process can be tractably broken down into short partial trajectory segments, via parameterizing an additional "flow function". Our method takes inspiration from the theory developed for generative flow networks (GFlowNets), allowing us to make use of intermediate learning signals. Through various challenging experiments, we demonstrate that DGFS achieves more accurate estimates of the normalization constant than closely-related prior methods.

By routing input tokens to only a few split experts, Sparse Mixture-of-Experts has enabled efficient training of large language models. Recent findings suggest that fixing the routers can achieve competitive performance by alleviating the collapsing problem, where all experts eventually learn similar representations. However, this strategy has two key limitations: (i) the policy derived from random routers might be sub-optimal, and (ii) it requires extensive resources during training and evaluation, leading to limited efficiency gains. This work introduces \HyperRout, which dynamically generates the router's parameters through a fixed hypernetwork and trainable embeddings to achieve a balance between training the routers and freezing them to learn an improved routing policy. Extensive experiments across a wide range of tasks demonstrate the superior performance and efficiency gains of \HyperRouter compared to existing routing methods. Our implementation is publicly available at {{https://github.com/giangdip2410/HyperRouter}}.

As the Chinese stock market continues to evolve and its market structure grows increasingly complex, traditional quantitative trading methods are facing escalating challenges. Particularly, due to policy uncertainty and the frequent market fluctuations triggered by sudden economic events, existing models often struggle to accurately predict market dynamics. To address these challenges, this paper introduces Stockformer, a price-volume factor stock selection model that integrates wavelet transformation and a multitask self-attention network, aimed at enhancing responsiveness and predictive accuracy regarding market instabilities. Through discrete wavelet transform, Stockformer decomposes stock returns into high and low frequencies, meticulously capturing long-term market trends and short-term fluctuations, including abrupt events. Moreover, the model incorporates a Dual-Frequency Spatiotemporal Encoder and graph embedding techniques to effectively capture complex temporal and spatial relationships among stocks. Employing a multitask learning strategy, it simultaneously predicts stock returns and directional trends. Experimental results show that Stockformer outperforms existing advanced methods on multiple real stock market datasets. In strategy backtesting, Stockformer consistently demonstrates exceptional stability and reliability across market conditions-whether rising, falling, or fluctuating-particularly maintaining high performance during downturns or volatile periods, indicating a high adaptability to market fluctuations. To foster innovation and collaboration in the financial analysis sector, the Stockformer model's code has been open-sourced and is available on the GitHub repository: https://github.com/Eric991005/Multitask-Stockformer.

Generative models inspired by dynamical transport of measure -- such as flows and diffusions -- construct a continuous-time map between two probability densities. Conventionally, one of these is the target density, only accessible through samples, while the other is taken as a simple base density that is data-agnostic. In this work, using the framework of stochastic interpolants, we formalize how to couple the base and the target densities. This enables us to incorporate information about class labels or continuous embeddings to construct dynamical transport maps that serve as conditional generative models. We show that these transport maps can be learned by solving a simple square loss regression problem analogous to the standard independent setting. We demonstrate the usefulness of constructing dependent couplings in practice through experiments in super-resolution and in-painting.

Diffusion and flow-based models have enabled significant progress in generation tasks across various modalities and have recently found applications in world modeling. However, unlike typical generation tasks that encourage sample diversity, world models entail different sources of uncertainty and require consistent samples aligned with the ground-truth trajectory, which is a limitation we empirically observe in diffusion models. We argue that a key bottleneck in learning consistent diffusion-based world models lies in the suboptimal predictive ability, which we attribute to the entanglement of condition understanding and target denoising within shared architectures and co-training schemes. To address this, we propose Foresight Diffusion (ForeDiff), a diffusion-based world modeling framework that enhances consistency by decoupling condition understanding from target denoising. ForeDiff incorporates a separate deterministic predictive stream to process conditioning inputs independently of the denoising stream, and further leverages a pretrained predictor to extract informative representations that guide generation. Extensive experiments on robot video prediction and scientific spatiotemporal forecasting show that ForeDiff improves both predictive accuracy and sample consistency over strong baselines, offering a promising direction for diffusion-based world models.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) show promising results for graph tasks. However, existing GNNs' generalization ability will degrade when there exist distribution shifts between testing and training graph data. The cardinal impetus underlying the severe degeneration is that the GNNs are architected predicated upon the I.I.D assumptions. In such a setting, GNNs are inclined to leverage imperceptible statistical correlations subsisting in the training set to predict, albeit it is a spurious correlation. In this paper, we study the problem of the generalization ability of GNNs in Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) settings. To solve this problem, we propose the Learning to Reweight for Generalizable Graph Neural Network (L2R-GNN) to enhance the generalization ability for achieving satisfactory performance on unseen testing graphs that have different distributions with training graphs. We propose a novel nonlinear graph decorrelation method, which can substantially improve the out-of-distribution generalization ability and compares favorably to previous methods in restraining the over-reduced sample size. The variables of the graph representation are clustered based on the stability of the correlation, and the graph decorrelation method learns weights to remove correlations between the variables of different clusters rather than any two variables. Besides, we interpose an efficacious stochastic algorithm upon bi-level optimization for the L2R-GNN framework, which facilitates simultaneously learning the optimal weights and GNN parameters, and avoids the overfitting problem. Experimental results show that L2R-GNN greatly outperforms baselines on various graph prediction benchmarks under distribution shifts.

It is typically understood that the training of modern neural networks is a process of fitting the probability distribution of desired output. However, recent paradoxical observations in a number of language generation tasks let one wonder if this canonical probability-based explanation can really account for the empirical success of deep learning. To resolve this issue, we propose an alternative utility-based explanation to the standard supervised learning procedure in deep learning. The basic idea is to interpret the learned neural network not as a probability model but as an ordinal utility function that encodes the preference revealed in training data. In this perspective, training of the neural network corresponds to a utility learning process. Specifically, we show that for all neural networks with softmax outputs, the SGD learning dynamic of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) can be seen as an iteration process that optimizes the neural network toward an optimal utility function. This utility-based interpretation can explain several otherwise-paradoxical observations about the neural networks thus trained. Moreover, our utility-based theory also entails an equation that can transform the learned utility values back to a new kind of probability estimation with which probability-compatible decision rules enjoy dramatic (double-digits) performance improvements. These evidences collectively reveal a phenomenon of utility-probability duality in terms of what modern neural networks are (truly) modeling: We thought they are one thing (probabilities), until the unexplainable showed up; changing mindset and treating them as another thing (utility values) largely reconcile the theory, despite remaining subtleties regarding its original (probabilistic) identity.

The enduring challenge in the field of artificial intelligence has been the control of systems to achieve desired behaviours. While for systems governed by straightforward dynamics equations, methods like Linear Quadratic Regulation (LQR) have historically proven highly effective, most real-world tasks, which require a general problem-solver, demand world models with dynamics that cannot be easily described by simple equations. Consequently, these models must be learned from data using neural networks. Most model predictive control (MPC) algorithms designed for visual world models have traditionally explored gradient-free population-based optimisation methods, such as Cross Entropy and Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) for planning. However, we present an exploration of a gradient-based alternative that fully leverages the differentiability of the world model. In our study, we conduct a comparative analysis between our method and other MPC-based alternatives, as well as policy-based algorithms. In a sample-efficient setting, our method achieves on par or superior performance compared to the alternative approaches in most tasks. Additionally, we introduce a hybrid model that combines policy networks and gradient-based MPC, which outperforms pure policy based methods thereby holding promise for Gradient-based planning with world models in complex real-world tasks.

Deep representation learning methods struggle with continual learning, suffering from both catastrophic forgetting of useful units and loss of plasticity, often due to rigid and unuseful units. While many methods address these two issues separately, only a few currently deal with both simultaneously. In this paper, we introduce Utility-based Perturbed Gradient Descent (UPGD) as a novel approach for the continual learning of representations. UPGD combines gradient updates with perturbations, where it applies smaller modifications to more useful units, protecting them from forgetting, and larger modifications to less useful units, rejuvenating their plasticity. We use a challenging streaming learning setup where continual learning problems have hundreds of non-stationarities and unknown task boundaries. We show that many existing methods suffer from at least one of the issues, predominantly manifested by their decreasing accuracy over tasks. On the other hand, UPGD continues to improve performance and surpasses or is competitive with all methods in all problems. Finally, in extended reinforcement learning experiments with PPO, we show that while Adam exhibits a performance drop after initial learning, UPGD avoids it by addressing both continual learning issues.

Predicting future stock prices and their movement patterns is a complex problem. Hence, building a portfolio of capital assets using the predicted prices to achieve the optimization between its return and risk is an even more difficult task. This work has carried out an analysis of the time series of the historical prices of the top five stocks from the nine different sectors of the Indian stock market from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Optimum portfolios are built for each of these sectors. For predicting future stock prices, a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) model is also designed and fine-tuned. After five months of the portfolio construction, the actual and the predicted returns and risks of each portfolio are computed. The predicted and the actual returns of each portfolio are found to be high, indicating the high precision of the LSTM model.

Portfolio design and optimization have been always an area of research that has attracted a lot of attention from researchers from the finance domain. Designing an optimum portfolio is a complex task since it involves accurate forecasting of future stock returns and risks and making a suitable tradeoff between them. This paper proposes a systematic approach to designing portfolios using two algorithms, the critical line algorithm, and the hierarchical risk parity algorithm on eight sectors of the Indian stock market. While the portfolios are designed using the stock price data from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020, they are tested on the data from Jan 1, 2021, to Aug 26, 2021. The backtesting results of the portfolios indicate while the performance of the CLA algorithm is superior on the training data, the HRP algorithm has outperformed the CLA algorithm on the test data.

We study the variance of stochastic policy gradients (SPGs) with many action samples per state. We derive a many-actions optimality condition, which determines when many-actions SPG yields lower variance as compared to a single-action agent with proportionally extended trajectory. We propose Model-Based Many-Actions (MBMA), an approach leveraging dynamics models for many-actions sampling in the context of SPG. MBMA addresses issues associated with existing implementations of many-actions SPG and yields lower bias and comparable variance to SPG estimated from states in model-simulated rollouts. We find that MBMA bias and variance structure matches that predicted by theory. As a result, MBMA achieves improved sample efficiency and higher returns on a range of continuous action environments as compared to model-free, many-actions, and model-based on-policy SPG baselines.

Network pruning techniques, including weight pruning and filter pruning, reveal that most state-of-the-art neural networks can be accelerated without a significant performance drop. This work focuses on filter pruning which enables accelerated inference with any off-the-shelf deep learning library and hardware. We propose the concept of network pruning spaces that parametrize populations of subnetwork architectures. Based on this concept, we explore the structure aspect of subnetworks that result in minimal loss of accuracy in different pruning regimes and arrive at a series of observations by comparing subnetwork distributions. We conjecture through empirical studies that there exists an optimal FLOPs-to-parameter-bucket ratio related to the design of original network in a pruning regime. Statistically, the structure of a winning subnetwork guarantees an approximately optimal ratio in this regime. Upon our conjectures, we further refine the initial pruning space to reduce the cost of searching a good subnetwork architecture. Our experimental results on ImageNet show that the subnetwork we found is superior to those from the state-of-the-art pruning methods under comparable FLOPs.

Generalizing policies across different domains with dynamics mismatch poses a significant challenge in reinforcement learning. For example, a robot learns the policy in a simulator, but when it is deployed in the real world, the dynamics of the environment may be different. Given the source and target domain with dynamics mismatch, we consider the online dynamics adaptation problem, in which case the agent can access sufficient source domain data while online interactions with the target domain are limited. Existing research has attempted to solve the problem from the dynamics discrepancy perspective. In this work, we reveal the limitations of these methods and explore the problem from the value difference perspective via a novel insight on the value consistency across domains. Specifically, we present the Value-Guided Data Filtering (VGDF) algorithm, which selectively shares transitions from the source domain based on the proximity of paired value targets across the two domains. Empirical results on various environments with kinematic and morphology shifts demonstrate that our method achieves superior performance compared to prior approaches.

Financial trading is a crucial component of the markets, informed by a multimodal information landscape encompassing news, prices, and Kline charts, and encompasses diverse tasks such as quantitative trading and high-frequency trading with various assets. While advanced AI techniques like deep learning and reinforcement learning are extensively utilized in finance, their application in financial trading tasks often faces challenges due to inadequate handling of multimodal data and limited generalizability across various tasks. To address these challenges, we present FinAgent, a multimodal foundational agent with tool augmentation for financial trading. FinAgent's market intelligence module processes a diverse range of data-numerical, textual, and visual-to accurately analyze the financial market. Its unique dual-level reflection module not only enables rapid adaptation to market dynamics but also incorporates a diversified memory retrieval system, enhancing the agent's ability to learn from historical data and improve decision-making processes. The agent's emphasis on reasoning for actions fosters trust in its financial decisions. Moreover, FinAgent integrates established trading strategies and expert insights, ensuring that its trading approaches are both data-driven and rooted in sound financial principles. With comprehensive experiments on 6 financial datasets, including stocks and Crypto, FinAgent significantly outperforms 9 state-of-the-art baselines in terms of 6 financial metrics with over 36% average improvement on profit. Specifically, a 92.27% return (a 84.39% relative improvement) is achieved on one dataset. Notably, FinAgent is the first advanced multimodal foundation agent designed for financial trading tasks.

This paper proposes a novel deep reinforcement learning architecture that was inspired by previous tree structured architectures which were only useable in discrete action spaces. Policy Prediction Network offers a way to improve sample complexity and performance on continuous control problems in exchange for extra computation at training time but at no cost in computation at rollout time. Our approach integrates a mix between model-free and model-based reinforcement learning. Policy Prediction Network is the first to introduce implicit model-based learning to Policy Gradient algorithms for continuous action space and is made possible via the empirically justified clipping scheme. Our experiments are focused on the MuJoCo environments so that they can be compared with similar work done in this area.

We identify a new phenomenon in neural network optimization which arises from the interaction of depth and a particular heavy-tailed structure in natural data. Our result offers intuitive explanations for several previously reported observations about network training dynamics. In particular, it implies a conceptually new cause for progressive sharpening and the edge of stability; we also highlight connections to other concepts in optimization and generalization including grokking, simplicity bias, and Sharpness-Aware Minimization. Experimentally, we demonstrate the significant influence of paired groups of outliers in the training data with strong opposing signals: consistent, large magnitude features which dominate the network output throughout training and provide gradients which point in opposite directions. Due to these outliers, early optimization enters a narrow valley which carefully balances the opposing groups; subsequent sharpening causes their loss to rise rapidly, oscillating between high on one group and then the other, until the overall loss spikes. We describe how to identify these groups, explore what sets them apart, and carefully study their effect on the network's optimization and behavior. We complement these experiments with a mechanistic explanation on a toy example of opposing signals and a theoretical analysis of a two-layer linear network on a simple model. Our finding enables new qualitative predictions of training behavior which we confirm experimentally. It also provides a new lens through which to study and improve modern training practices for stochastic optimization, which we highlight via a case study of Adam versus SGD.

This paper presents a novel approach that enables autoregressive video generation with high efficiency. We propose to reformulate the video generation problem as a non-quantized autoregressive modeling of temporal frame-by-frame prediction and spatial set-by-set prediction. Unlike raster-scan prediction in prior autoregressive models or joint distribution modeling of fixed-length tokens in diffusion models, our approach maintains the causal property of GPT-style models for flexible in-context capabilities, while leveraging bidirectional modeling within individual frames for efficiency. With the proposed approach, we train a novel video autoregressive model without vector quantization, termed NOVA. Our results demonstrate that NOVA surpasses prior autoregressive video models in data efficiency, inference speed, visual fidelity, and video fluency, even with a much smaller model capacity, i.e., 0.6B parameters. NOVA also outperforms state-of-the-art image diffusion models in text-to-image generation tasks, with a significantly lower training cost. Additionally, NOVA generalizes well across extended video durations and enables diverse zero-shot applications in one unified model. Code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/baaivision/NOVA.

Current deep learning models for dynamics forecasting struggle with generalization. They can only forecast in a specific domain and fail when applied to systems with different parameters, external forces, or boundary conditions. We propose a model-based meta-learning method called DyAd which can generalize across heterogeneous domains by partitioning them into different tasks. DyAd has two parts: an encoder which infers the time-invariant hidden features of the task with weak supervision, and a forecaster which learns the shared dynamics of the entire domain. The encoder adapts and controls the forecaster during inference using adaptive instance normalization and adaptive padding. Theoretically, we prove that the generalization error of such procedure is related to the task relatedness in the source domain, as well as the domain differences between source and target. Experimentally, we demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on both turbulent flow and real-world ocean data forecasting tasks.

We introduce a new function-preserving transformation for efficient neural architecture search. This network transformation allows reusing previously trained networks and existing successful architectures that improves sample efficiency. We aim to address the limitation of current network transformation operations that can only perform layer-level architecture modifications, such as adding (pruning) filters or inserting (removing) a layer, which fails to change the topology of connection paths. Our proposed path-level transformation operations enable the meta-controller to modify the path topology of the given network while keeping the merits of reusing weights, and thus allow efficiently designing effective structures with complex path topologies like Inception models. We further propose a bidirectional tree-structured reinforcement learning meta-controller to explore a simple yet highly expressive tree-structured architecture space that can be viewed as a generalization of multi-branch architectures. We experimented on the image classification datasets with limited computational resources (about 200 GPU-hours), where we observed improved parameter efficiency and better test results (97.70% test accuracy on CIFAR-10 with 14.3M parameters and 74.6% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet in the mobile setting), demonstrating the effectiveness and transferability of our designed architectures.

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) are amortized sampling methods that learn a distribution over discrete objects proportional to their rewards. GFlowNets exhibit a remarkable ability to generate diverse samples, yet occasionally struggle to consistently produce samples with high rewards due to over-exploration on wide sample space. This paper proposes to train GFlowNets with local search, which focuses on exploiting high-rewarded sample space to resolve this issue. Our main idea is to explore the local neighborhood via backtracking and reconstruction guided by backward and forward policies, respectively. This allows biasing the samples toward high-reward solutions, which is not possible for a typical GFlowNet solution generation scheme, which uses the forward policy to generate the solution from scratch. Extensive experiments demonstrate a remarkable performance improvement in several biochemical tasks. Source code is available: https://github.com/dbsxodud-11/ls_gfn.

The Multi-Prize Lottery Ticket Hypothesis posits that randomly initialized neural networks contain several subnetworks that achieve comparable accuracy to fully trained models of the same architecture. However, current methods require that the network is sufficiently overparameterized. In this work, we propose a modification to two state-of-the-art algorithms (Edge-Popup and Biprop) that finds high-accuracy subnetworks with no additional storage cost or scaling. The algorithm, Iterative Weight Recycling, identifies subsets of important weights within a randomly initialized network for intra-layer reuse. Empirically we show improvements on smaller network architectures and higher prune rates, finding that model sparsity can be increased through the "recycling" of existing weights. In addition to Iterative Weight Recycling, we complement the Multi-Prize Lottery Ticket Hypothesis with a reciprocal finding: high-accuracy, randomly initialized subnetwork's produce diverse masks, despite being generated with the same hyperparameter's and pruning strategy. We explore the landscapes of these masks, which show high variability.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are neural models that leverage the dependency structure in graphical data via message passing among the graph nodes. GNNs have emerged as pivotal architectures in analyzing graph-structured data, and their expansive application in sensitive domains requires a comprehensive understanding of their decision-making processes -- necessitating a framework for GNN explainability. An explanation function for GNNs takes a pre-trained GNN along with a graph as input, to produce a `sufficient statistic' subgraph with respect to the graph label. A main challenge in studying GNN explainability is to provide fidelity measures that evaluate the performance of these explanation functions. This paper studies this foundational challenge, spotlighting the inherent limitations of prevailing fidelity metrics, including Fid_+, Fid_-, and Fid_Delta. Specifically, a formal, information-theoretic definition of explainability is introduced and it is shown that existing metrics often fail to align with this definition across various statistical scenarios. The reason is due to potential distribution shifts when subgraphs are removed in computing these fidelity measures. Subsequently, a robust class of fidelity measures are introduced, and it is shown analytically that they are resilient to distribution shift issues and are applicable in a wide range of scenarios. Extensive empirical analysis on both synthetic and real datasets are provided to illustrate that the proposed metrics are more coherent with gold standard metrics. The source code is available at https://trustai4s-lab.github.io/fidelity.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have recently become the standard approach for learning with graph-structured data. Prior work has shed light into their potential, but also their limitations. Unfortunately, it was shown that standard GNNs are limited in their expressive power. These models are no more powerful than the 1-dimensional Weisfeiler-Leman (1-WL) algorithm in terms of distinguishing non-isomorphic graphs. In this paper, we propose Path Neural Networks (PathNNs), a model that updates node representations by aggregating paths emanating from nodes. We derive three different variants of the PathNN model that aggregate single shortest paths, all shortest paths and all simple paths of length up to K. We prove that two of these variants are strictly more powerful than the 1-WL algorithm, and we experimentally validate our theoretical results. We find that PathNNs can distinguish pairs of non-isomorphic graphs that are indistinguishable by 1-WL, while our most expressive PathNN variant can even distinguish between 3-WL indistinguishable graphs. The different PathNN variants are also evaluated on graph classification and graph regression datasets, where in most cases, they outperform the baseline methods.

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) have been introduced as a method to sample a diverse set of candidates with probabilities proportional to a given reward. However, GFlowNets can only be used with a predefined scalar reward, which can be either computationally expensive or not directly accessible, in the case of multi-objective optimization (MOO) tasks for example. Moreover, to prioritize identifying high-reward candidates, the conventional practice is to raise the reward to a higher exponent, the optimal choice of which may vary across different environments. To address these issues, we propose Order-Preserving GFlowNets (OP-GFNs), which sample with probabilities in proportion to a learned reward function that is consistent with a provided (partial) order on the candidates, thus eliminating the need for an explicit formulation of the reward function. We theoretically prove that the training process of OP-GFNs gradually sparsifies the learned reward landscape in single-objective maximization tasks. The sparsification concentrates on candidates of a higher hierarchy in the ordering, ensuring exploration at the beginning and exploitation towards the end of the training. We demonstrate OP-GFN's state-of-the-art performance in single-objective maximization (totally ordered) and multi-objective Pareto front approximation (partially ordered) tasks, including synthetic datasets, molecule generation, and neural architecture search.

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in developing foundation models for time series data that can generalize across diverse downstream tasks. While numerous forecasting-oriented foundation models have been introduced, there is a notable scarcity of models tailored for time series classification. To address this gap, we present Mantis, a new open-source foundation model for time series classification based on the Vision Transformer (ViT) architecture that has been pre-trained using a contrastive learning approach. Our experimental results show that Mantis outperforms existing foundation models both when the backbone is frozen and when fine-tuned, while achieving the lowest calibration error. In addition, we propose several adapters to handle the multivariate setting, reducing memory requirements and modeling channel interdependence.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) methods are emerging as a way to fine-tune diffusion models (DMs) for visual generation. However, commonly used on-policy strategies are limited by the generalization capability of the reward model, while off-policy approaches require large amounts of difficult-to-obtain paired human-annotated data, particularly in visual generation tasks. To address the limitations of both on- and off-policy RLHF, we propose a preference optimization method that aligns DMs with preferences without relying on reward models or paired human-annotated data. Specifically, we introduce a Semi-Policy Preference Optimization (SePPO) method. SePPO leverages previous checkpoints as reference models while using them to generate on-policy reference samples, which replace "losing images" in preference pairs. This approach allows us to optimize using only off-policy "winning images." Furthermore, we design a strategy for reference model selection that expands the exploration in the policy space. Notably, we do not simply treat reference samples as negative examples for learning. Instead, we design an anchor-based criterion to assess whether the reference samples are likely to be winning or losing images, allowing the model to selectively learn from the generated reference samples. This approach mitigates performance degradation caused by the uncertainty in reference sample quality. We validate SePPO across both text-to-image and text-to-video benchmarks. SePPO surpasses all previous approaches on the text-to-image benchmarks and also demonstrates outstanding performance on the text-to-video benchmarks. Code will be released in https://github.com/DwanZhang-AI/SePPO.

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio of stocks with the identification of proper weights of allocation to achieve the optimized values of return and risk. We present optimized portfolios based on the seven sectors of the Indian economy. The past prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Optimum portfolios are designed on the selected seven sectors. An LSTM regression model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Five months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on June 1, 2021, the actual and predicted returns and risks of each portfolio are computed. The predicted and the actual returns indicate the very high accuracy of the LSTM model.

In this paper, we present a new MTL framework that searches for structures optimized for multiple tasks with diverse graph topologies and shares features among tasks. We design a restricted DAG-based central network with read-in/read-out layers to build topologically diverse task-adaptive structures while limiting search space and time. We search for a single optimized network that serves as multiple task adaptive sub-networks using our three-stage training process. To make the network compact and discretized, we propose a flow-based reduction algorithm and a squeeze loss used in the training process. We evaluate our optimized network on various public MTL datasets and show ours achieves state-of-the-art performance. An extensive ablation study experimentally validates the effectiveness of the sub-module and schemes in our framework.

In recent years, generative pre-trained paradigms such as Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Vision Models (LVMs) have achieved revolutionary advancements and widespread real-world applications. Particularly, the emergence of pre-trained LLMs-based temporal works, compared to previous deep model approaches, has demonstrated superior generalization and robustness, showcasing the potential of generative pre-trained paradigms as foundation models for time series. However, those LLMs-based works mainly focus on cross-modal research, i.e., leveraging the language capabilities of LLMs in time series contexts. Although they have achieved impressive performance, there still exist the issues of concept drift caused by differences in data distribution and inflexibility caused by misalignment of dimensions. To this end, inspired by recent work on LVMs, we reconsider the paradigm of time series modeling. In this paper, we comprehensively explore, for the first time, the effectiveness and superiority of the Generative Pre-trained Diffusion (GPD) paradigm in real-world multivariate time series forecasting (TSF). Specifically, to mitigate performance bias introduced by sophisticated networks, we propose a straightforward MLP diffusion network for unconditional modeling of time series. Then we employ a zero-shot and tuning-free method to predict (generate) future data using historical data as prompts. The GPD paradigm is established on the time series modality, effectively preventing the phenomenon of concept drift, and enabling flexible forecasting of arbitrary lengths. We demonstrate that the GPD paradigm achieves comprehensive performance and generalization comparable to current SOTA LLM-based and deep model paradigms on mainstream benchmarks and various TSF tasks. Extensive experiments validate the potential of the GPD paradigm and its assistance in future related research.

Generative policies trained with human demonstrations can autonomously accomplish multimodal, long-horizon tasks. However, during inference, humans are often removed from the policy execution loop, limiting the ability to guide a pre-trained policy towards a specific sub-goal or trajectory shape among multiple predictions. Naive human intervention may inadvertently exacerbate distribution shift, leading to constraint violations or execution failures. To better align policy output with human intent without inducing out-of-distribution errors, we propose an Inference-Time Policy Steering (ITPS) framework that leverages human interactions to bias the generative sampling process, rather than fine-tuning the policy on interaction data. We evaluate ITPS across three simulated and real-world benchmarks, testing three forms of human interaction and associated alignment distance metrics. Among six sampling strategies, our proposed stochastic sampling with diffusion policy achieves the best trade-off between alignment and distribution shift. Videos are available at https://yanweiw.github.io/itps/.

In recent years, graph pre-training has gained significant attention, focusing on acquiring transferable knowledge from unlabeled graph data to improve downstream performance. Despite these recent endeavors, the problem of negative transfer remains a major concern when utilizing graph pre-trained models to downstream tasks. Previous studies made great efforts on the issue of what to pre-train and how to pre-train by designing a variety of graph pre-training and fine-tuning strategies. However, there are cases where even the most advanced "pre-train and fine-tune" paradigms fail to yield distinct benefits. This paper introduces a generic framework W2PGNN to answer the crucial question of when to pre-train (i.e., in what situations could we take advantage of graph pre-training) before performing effortful pre-training or fine-tuning. We start from a new perspective to explore the complex generative mechanisms from the pre-training data to downstream data. In particular, W2PGNN first fits the pre-training data into graphon bases, each element of graphon basis (i.e., a graphon) identifies a fundamental transferable pattern shared by a collection of pre-training graphs. All convex combinations of graphon bases give rise to a generator space, from which graphs generated form the solution space for those downstream data that can benefit from pre-training. In this manner, the feasibility of pre-training can be quantified as the generation probability of the downstream data from any generator in the generator space. W2PGNN offers three broad applications: providing the application scope of graph pre-trained models, quantifying the feasibility of pre-training, and assistance in selecting pre-training data to enhance downstream performance. We provide a theoretically sound solution for the first application and extensive empirical justifications for the latter two applications.

Reinforcement learning has demonstrated great potential for performing financial tasks. However, it faces two major challenges: policy instability and sampling bottlenecks. In this paper, we revisit ensemble methods with massively parallel simulations on graphics processing units (GPUs), significantly enhancing the computational efficiency and robustness of trained models in volatile financial markets. Our approach leverages the parallel processing capability of GPUs to significantly improve the sampling speed for training ensemble models. The ensemble models combine the strengths of component agents to improve the robustness of financial decision-making strategies. We conduct experiments in both stock and cryptocurrency trading tasks to evaluate the effectiveness of our approach. Massively parallel simulation on a single GPU improves the sampling speed by up to 1,746times using 2,048 parallel environments compared to a single environment. The ensemble models have high cumulative returns and outperform some individual agents, reducing maximum drawdown by up to 4.17% and improving the Sharpe ratio by up to 0.21. This paper describes trading tasks at ACM ICAIF FinRL Contests in 2023 and 2024.

We tackle the challenge of large-scale network intervention for guiding excitatory point processes, such as infectious disease spread or traffic congestion control. Our model-based reinforcement learning utilizes neural ODEs to capture how the networked excitatory point processes will evolve subject to the time-varying changes in network topology. Our approach incorporates Gradient-Descent based Model Predictive Control (GD-MPC), offering policy flexibility to accommodate prior knowledge and constraints. To address the intricacies of planning and overcome the high dimensionality inherent to such decision-making problems, we design an Amortize Network Interventions (ANI) framework, allowing for the pooling of optimal policies from history and other contexts, while ensuring a permutation equivalent property. This property enables efficient knowledge transfer and sharing across diverse contexts. Our approach has broad applications, from curbing infectious disease spread to reducing carbon emissions through traffic light optimization, and thus has the potential to address critical societal and environmental challenges.

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

Bitcoin, with its ever-growing popularity, has demonstrated extreme price volatility since its origin. This volatility, together with its decentralised nature, make Bitcoin highly subjective to speculative trading as compared to more traditional assets. In this paper, we propose a multimodal model for predicting extreme price fluctuations. This model takes as input a variety of correlated assets, technical indicators, as well as Twitter content. In an in-depth study, we explore whether social media discussions from the general public on Bitcoin have predictive power for extreme price movements. A dataset of 5,000 tweets per day containing the keyword `Bitcoin' was collected from 2015 to 2021. This dataset, called PreBit, is made available online. In our hybrid model, we use sentence-level FinBERT embeddings, pretrained on financial lexicons, so as to capture the full contents of the tweets and feed it to the model in an understandable way. By combining these embeddings with a Convolutional Neural Network, we built a predictive model for significant market movements. The final multimodal ensemble model includes this NLP model together with a model based on candlestick data, technical indicators and correlated asset prices. In an ablation study, we explore the contribution of the individual modalities. Finally, we propose and backtest a trading strategy based on the predictions of our models with varying prediction threshold and show that it can used to build a profitable trading strategy with a reduced risk over a `hold' or moving average strategy.