Daily Papers

Cold-start active learning (CSAL) selects valuable instances from an unlabeled dataset for manual annotation. It provides high-quality data at a low annotation cost for label-scarce text classification. However, existing CSAL methods overlook weak classes and hard representative examples, resulting in biased learning. To address these issues, this paper proposes a novel dual-diversity enhancing and uncertainty-aware (DEUCE) framework for CSAL. Specifically, DEUCE leverages a pretrained language model (PLM) to efficiently extract textual representations, class predictions, and predictive uncertainty. Then, it constructs a Dual-Neighbor Graph (DNG) to combine information on both textual diversity and class diversity, ensuring a balanced data distribution. It further propagates uncertainty information via density-based clustering to select hard representative instances. DEUCE performs well in selecting class-balanced and hard representative data by dual-diversity and informativeness. Experiments on six NLP datasets demonstrate the superiority and efficiency of DEUCE.

In any ranking system, the retrieval model outputs a single score for a document based on its belief on how relevant it is to a given search query. While retrieval models have continued to improve with the introduction of increasingly complex architectures, few works have investigated a retrieval model's belief in the score beyond the scope of a single value. We argue that capturing the model's uncertainty with respect to its own scoring of a document is a critical aspect of retrieval that allows for greater use of current models across new document distributions, collections, or even improving effectiveness for down-stream tasks. In this paper, we address this problem via an efficient Bayesian framework for retrieval models which captures the model's belief in the relevance score through a stochastic process while adding only negligible computational overhead. We evaluate this belief via a ranking based calibration metric showing that our approximate Bayesian framework significantly improves a retrieval model's ranking effectiveness through a risk aware reranking as well as its confidence calibration. Lastly, we demonstrate that this additional uncertainty information is actionable and reliable on down-stream tasks represented via cutoff prediction.

Recent advances in language models (LMs) have led to significant improvements in quality on complex NLP tasks, but at the expense of increased inference costs. Cascading offers a simple strategy to achieve more favorable cost-quality tradeoffs: here, a small model is invoked for most "easy" instances, while a few "hard" instances are deferred to the large model. While the principles underpinning cascading are well-studied for classification tasks - with deferral based on predicted class uncertainty favored theoretically and practically - a similar understanding is lacking for generative LM tasks. In this work, we initiate a systematic study of deferral rules for LM cascades. We begin by examining the natural extension of predicted class uncertainty to generative LM tasks, namely, the predicted sequence uncertainty. We show that this measure suffers from the length bias problem, either over- or under-emphasizing outputs based on their lengths. This is because LMs produce a sequence of uncertainty values, one for each output token; and moreover, the number of output tokens is variable across examples. To mitigate this issue, we propose to exploit the richer token-level uncertainty information implicit in generative LMs. We argue that naive predicted sequence uncertainty corresponds to a simple aggregation of these uncertainties. By contrast, we show that incorporating token-level uncertainty through learned post-hoc deferral rules can significantly outperform such simple aggregation strategies, via experiments on a range of natural language benchmarks with FLAN-T5 models. We further show that incorporating embeddings from the smaller model and intermediate layers of the larger model can give an additional boost in the overall cost-quality tradeoff.

Existing neural ranking models follow the text matching paradigm, where document-to-query relevance is estimated through predicting the matching score. Drawing from the rich literature of classical generative retrieval models, we introduce and formalize the paradigm of deep generative retrieval models defined via the cumulative probabilities of generating query terms. This paradigm offers a grounded probabilistic view on relevance estimation while still enabling the use of modern neural architectures. In contrast to the matching paradigm, the probabilistic nature of generative rankers readily offers a fine-grained measure of uncertainty. We adopt several current neural generative models in our framework and introduce a novel generative ranker (T-PGN), which combines the encoding capacity of Transformers with the Pointer Generator Network model. We conduct an extensive set of evaluation experiments on passage retrieval, leveraging the MS MARCO Passage Re-ranking and TREC Deep Learning 2019 Passage Re-ranking collections. Our results show the significantly higher performance of the T-PGN model when compared with other generative models. Lastly, we demonstrate that exploiting the uncertainty information of deep generative rankers opens new perspectives to query/collection understanding, and significantly improves the cut-off prediction task.

Before deploying autonomous agents in the real world, we need to be confident they will perform safely in novel situations. Ideally, we would expose agents to a very wide range of situations during training, allowing them to learn about every possible danger, but this is often impractical. This paper investigates safety and generalization from a limited number of training environments in deep reinforcement learning (RL). We find RL algorithms can fail dangerously on unseen test environments even when performing perfectly on training environments. Firstly, in a gridworld setting, we show that catastrophes can be significantly reduced with simple modifications, including ensemble model averaging and the use of a blocking classifier. In the more challenging CoinRun environment we find similar methods do not significantly reduce catastrophes. However, we do find that the uncertainty information from the ensemble is useful for predicting whether a catastrophe will occur within a few steps and hence whether human intervention should be requested.

Large pretrained models, coupled with fine-tuning, are slowly becoming established as the dominant architecture in machine learning. Even though these models offer impressive performance, their practical application is often limited by the prohibitive amount of resources required for every inference. Early-exiting dynamic neural networks (EDNN) circumvent this issue by allowing a model to make some of its predictions from intermediate layers (i.e., early-exit). Training an EDNN architecture is challenging as it consists of two intertwined components: the gating mechanism (GM) that controls early-exiting decisions and the intermediate inference modules (IMs) that perform inference from intermediate representations. As a result, most existing approaches rely on thresholding confidence metrics for the gating mechanism and strive to improve the underlying backbone network and the inference modules. Although successful, this approach has two fundamental shortcomings: 1) the GMs and the IMs are decoupled during training, leading to a train-test mismatch; and 2) the thresholding gating mechanism introduces a positive bias into the predictive probabilities, making it difficult to readily extract uncertainty information. We propose a novel architecture that connects these two modules. This leads to significant performance improvements on classification datasets and enables better uncertainty characterization capabilities.

This paper presents a continuous-time optimal control framework for the generation of reference trajectories in driving scenarios with uncertainty. A previous work presented a discrete-time stochastic generator for autonomous vehicles; those results are extended to continuous time to ensure the robustness of the generator in a real-time setting. We show that the stochastic model in continuous time can capture the uncertainty of information by producing better results, limiting the risk of violating the problem's constraints compared to a discrete approach. Dynamic solvers provide faster computation and the continuous-time model is more robust to a wider variety of driving scenarios than the discrete-time model, as it can handle further time horizons, which allows trajectory planning outside the framework of urban driving scenarios.

Financial markets have a vital role in the development of modern society. They allow the deployment of economic resources. Changes in stock prices reflect changes in the market. In this study, we focus on predicting stock prices by deep learning model. This is a challenge task, because there is much noise and uncertainty in information that is related to stock prices. So this work uses sparse autoencoders with one-dimension (1-D) residual convolutional networks which is a deep learning model, to de-noise the data. Long-short term memory (LSTM) is then used to predict the stock price. The prices, indices and macroeconomic variables in past are the features used to predict the next day's price. Experiment results show that 1-D residual convolutional networks can de-noise data and extract deep features better than a model that combines wavelet transforms (WT) and stacked autoencoders (SAEs). In addition, we compare the performances of model with two different forecast targets of stock price: absolute stock price and price rate of change. The results show that predicting stock price through price rate of change is better than predicting absolute prices directly.

The pervasiveness of large language models and generative AI in online media has amplified the need for effective automated fact-checking to assist fact-checkers in tackling the increasing volume and sophistication of misinformation. The complex nature of fact-checking demands that automated fact-checking systems provide explanations that enable fact-checkers to scrutinise their outputs. However, it is unclear how these explanations should align with the decision-making and reasoning processes of fact-checkers to be effectively integrated into their workflows. Through semi-structured interviews with fact-checking professionals, we bridge this gap by: (i) providing an account of how fact-checkers assess evidence, make decisions, and explain their processes; (ii) examining how fact-checkers use automated tools in practice; and (iii) identifying fact-checker explanation requirements for automated fact-checking tools. The findings show unmet explanation needs and identify important criteria for replicable fact-checking explanations that trace the model's reasoning path, reference specific evidence, and highlight uncertainty and information gaps.

Calibrating deep learning models to yield uncertainty-aware predictions is crucial as deep neural networks get increasingly deployed in safety-critical applications. While existing post-hoc calibration methods achieve impressive results on in-domain test datasets, they are limited by their inability to yield reliable uncertainty estimates in domain-shift and out-of-domain (OOD) scenarios. We aim to bridge this gap by proposing DAC, an accuracy-preserving as well as Density-Aware Calibration method based on k-nearest-neighbors (KNN). In contrast to existing post-hoc methods, we utilize hidden layers of classifiers as a source for uncertainty-related information and study their importance. We show that DAC is a generic method that can readily be combined with state-of-the-art post-hoc methods. DAC boosts the robustness of calibration performance in domain-shift and OOD, while maintaining excellent in-domain predictive uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that DAC leads to consistently better calibration across a large number of model architectures, datasets, and metrics. Additionally, we show that DAC improves calibration substantially on recent large-scale neural networks pre-trained on vast amounts of data.

Large language models (LLMs) are notorious for hallucinating, i.e., producing erroneous claims in their output. Such hallucinations can be dangerous, as occasional factual inaccuracies in the generated text might be obscured by the rest of the output being generally factual, making it extremely hard for the users to spot them. Current services that leverage LLMs usually do not provide any means for detecting unreliable generations. Here, we aim to bridge this gap. In particular, we propose a novel fact-checking and hallucination detection pipeline based on token-level uncertainty quantification. Uncertainty scores leverage information encapsulated in the output of a neural network or its layers to detect unreliable predictions, and we show that they can be used to fact-check the atomic claims in the LLM output. Moreover, we present a novel token-level uncertainty quantification method that removes the impact of uncertainty about what claim to generate on the current step and what surface form to use. Our method Claim Conditioned Probability (CCP) measures only the uncertainty of particular claim value expressed by the model. Experiments on the task of biography generation demonstrate strong improvements for CCP compared to the baselines for six different LLMs and three languages. Human evaluation reveals that the fact-checking pipeline based on uncertainty quantification is competitive with a fact-checking tool that leverages external knowledge.

With an increasing number of replication studies performed in psychological science, the question of how to evaluate the outcome of a replication attempt deserves careful consideration. Bayesian approaches allow to incorporate uncertainty and prior information into the analysis of the replication attempt by their design. The Replication Bayes Factor, introduced by Verhagen & Wagenmakers (2014), provides quantitative, relative evidence in favor or against a successful replication. In previous work by Verhagen & Wagenmakers (2014) it was limited to the case of t-tests. In this paper, the Replication Bayes Factor is extended to F-tests in multi-group, fixed-effect ANOVA designs. Simulations and examples are presented to facilitate the understanding and to demonstrate the usefulness of this approach. Finally, the Replication Bayes Factor is compared to other Bayesian and frequentist approaches and discussed in the context of replication attempts. R code to calculate Replication Bayes factors and to reproduce the examples in the paper is available at https://osf.io/jv39h/.

Since the introduction of ChatGPT and GPT-4, these models have been tested across a large number of tasks. Their adeptness across domains is evident, but their aptitude in playing games, and specifically their aptitude in the realm of poker has remained unexplored. Poker is a game that requires decision making under uncertainty and incomplete information. In this paper, we put ChatGPT and GPT-4 through the poker test and evaluate their poker skills. Our findings reveal that while both models display an advanced understanding of poker, encompassing concepts like the valuation of starting hands, playing positions and other intricacies of game theory optimal (GTO) poker, both ChatGPT and GPT-4 are NOT game theory optimal poker players. Profitable strategies in poker are evaluated in expectations over large samples. Through a series of experiments, we first discover the characteristics of optimal prompts and model parameters for playing poker with these models. Our observations then unveil the distinct playing personas of the two models. We first conclude that GPT-4 is a more advanced poker player than ChatGPT. This exploration then sheds light on the divergent poker tactics of the two models: ChatGPT's conservativeness juxtaposed against GPT-4's aggression. In poker vernacular, when tasked to play GTO poker, ChatGPT plays like a nit, which means that it has a propensity to only engage with premium hands and folds a majority of hands. When subjected to the same directive, GPT-4 plays like a maniac, showcasing a loose and aggressive style of play. Both strategies, although relatively advanced, are not game theory optimal.

Video representation learning is an increasingly important topic in machine learning research. We present Video JEPA with Variance-Covariance Regularization (VJ-VCR): a joint-embedding predictive architecture for self-supervised video representation learning that employs variance and covariance regularization to avoid representation collapse. We show that hidden representations from our VJ-VCR contain abstract, high-level information about the input data. Specifically, they outperform representations obtained from a generative baseline on downstream tasks that require understanding of the underlying dynamics of moving objects in the videos. Additionally, we explore different ways to incorporate latent variables into the VJ-VCR framework that capture information about uncertainty in the future in non-deterministic settings.

This paper investigates the rationality of large language models (LLMs) in strategic decision-making contexts, specifically within the framework of game theory. We evaluate several state-of-the-art LLMs across a spectrum of complete-information and incomplete-information games. Our findings reveal that LLMs frequently deviate from rational strategies, particularly as the complexity of the game increases with larger payoff matrices or deeper sequential trees. To address these limitations, we design multiple game-theoretic workflows that guide the reasoning and decision-making processes of LLMs. These workflows aim to enhance the models' ability to compute Nash Equilibria and make rational choices, even under conditions of uncertainty and incomplete information. Experimental results demonstrate that the adoption of these workflows significantly improves the rationality and robustness of LLMs in game-theoretic tasks. Specifically, with the workflow, LLMs exhibit marked improvements in identifying optimal strategies, achieving near-optimal allocations in negotiation scenarios, and reducing susceptibility to exploitation during negotiations. Furthermore, we explore the meta-strategic considerations of whether it is rational for agents to adopt such workflows, recognizing that the decision to use or forgo the workflow constitutes a game-theoretic issue in itself. Our research contributes to a deeper understanding of LLMs' decision-making capabilities in strategic contexts and provides insights into enhancing their rationality through structured workflows. The findings have implications for the development of more robust and strategically sound AI agents capable of navigating complex interactive environments. Code and data supporting this study are available at https://github.com/Wenyueh/game_theory.

Uncertainty estimation is a key factor that makes deep learning reliable in practical applications. Recently proposed evidential neural networks explicitly account for different uncertainties by treating the network's outputs as evidence to parameterize the Dirichlet distribution, and achieve impressive performance in uncertainty estimation. However, for high data uncertainty samples but annotated with the one-hot label, the evidence-learning process for those mislabeled classes is over-penalized and remains hindered. To address this problem, we propose a novel method, Fisher Information-based Evidential Deep Learning (I-EDL). In particular, we introduce Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) to measure the informativeness of evidence carried by each sample, according to which we can dynamically reweight the objective loss terms to make the network more focused on the representation learning of uncertain classes. The generalization ability of our network is further improved by optimizing the PAC-Bayesian bound. As demonstrated empirically, our proposed method consistently outperforms traditional EDL-related algorithms in multiple uncertainty estimation tasks, especially in the more challenging few-shot classification settings.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

This study addresses the challenging problem of active view selection and uncertainty quantification within the domain of Radiance Fields. Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) have greatly advanced image rendering and reconstruction, but the limited availability of 2D images poses uncertainties stemming from occlusions, depth ambiguities, and imaging errors. Efficiently selecting informative views becomes crucial, and quantifying NeRF model uncertainty presents intricate challenges. Existing approaches either depend on model architecture or are based on assumptions regarding density distributions that are not generally applicable. By leveraging Fisher Information, we efficiently quantify observed information within Radiance Fields without ground truth data. This can be used for the next best view selection and pixel-wise uncertainty quantification. Our method overcomes existing limitations on model architecture and effectiveness, achieving state-of-the-art results in both view selection and uncertainty quantification, demonstrating its potential to advance the field of Radiance Fields. Our method with the 3D Gaussian Splatting backend could perform view selections at 70 fps.

Open Information Extraction (OIE) task aims at extracting structured facts from unstructured text, typically in the form of (subject, relation, object) triples. Despite the potential of large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT as a general task solver, they lag behind state-of-the-art (supervised) methods in OIE tasks due to two key issues. First, LLMs struggle to distinguish irrelevant context from relevant relations and generate structured output due to the restrictions on fine-tuning the model. Second, LLMs generates responses autoregressively based on probability, which makes the predicted relations lack confidence. In this paper, we assess the capabilities of LLMs in improving the OIE task. Particularly, we propose various in-context learning strategies to enhance LLM's instruction-following ability and a demonstration uncertainty quantification module to enhance the confidence of the generated relations. Our experiments on three OIE benchmark datasets show that our approach holds its own against established supervised methods, both quantitatively and qualitatively.

Without manually annotated identities, unsupervised multi-object trackers are inferior to learning reliable feature embeddings. It causes the similarity-based inter-frame association stage also be error-prone, where an uncertainty problem arises. The frame-by-frame accumulated uncertainty prevents trackers from learning the consistent feature embedding against time variation. To avoid this uncertainty problem, recent self-supervised techniques are adopted, whereas they failed to capture temporal relations. The interframe uncertainty still exists. In fact, this paper argues that though the uncertainty problem is inevitable, it is possible to leverage the uncertainty itself to improve the learned consistency in turn. Specifically, an uncertainty-based metric is developed to verify and rectify the risky associations. The resulting accurate pseudo-tracklets boost learning the feature consistency. And accurate tracklets can incorporate temporal information into spatial transformation. This paper proposes a tracklet-guided augmentation strategy to simulate tracklets' motion, which adopts a hierarchical uncertainty-based sampling mechanism for hard sample mining. The ultimate unsupervised MOT framework, namely U2MOT, is proven effective on MOT-Challenges and VisDrone-MOT benchmark. U2MOT achieves a SOTA performance among the published supervised and unsupervised trackers.

Deep Learning-based image super-resolution (SR) has been gaining traction with the aid of Generative Adversarial Networks. Models like SRGAN and ESRGAN are constantly ranked between the best image SR tools. However, they lack principled ways for estimating predictive uncertainty. In the present work, we enhance these models using Monte Carlo-Dropout and Deep Ensemble, allowing the computation of predictive uncertainty. When coupled with a prediction, uncertainty estimates can provide more information to the model users, highlighting pixels where the SR output might be uncertain, hence potentially inaccurate, if these estimates were to be reliable. Our findings suggest that these uncertainty estimates are decently calibrated and can hence fulfill this goal, while providing no performance drop with respect to the corresponding models without uncertainty estimation.

Transformers have become the gold standard for many natural language processing tasks and, in particular, for multi-hop question answering (MHQA). This task includes processing a long document and reasoning over the multiple parts of it. The landscape of MHQA approaches can be classified into two primary categories. The first group focuses on extracting supporting evidence, thereby constraining the QA model's context to predicted facts. Conversely, the second group relies on the attention mechanism of the long input encoding model to facilitate multi-hop reasoning. However, attention-based token representations lack explicit global contextual information to connect reasoning steps. To address these issues, we propose GEMFormer, a two-stage method that first collects relevant information over the entire document to the memory and then combines it with local context to solve the task. Our experimental results show that fine-tuning a pre-trained model with memory-augmented input, including the most certain global elements, improves the model's performance on three MHQA datasets compared to the baseline. We also found that the global explicit memory contains information from supporting facts required for the correct answer.

In supervised learning, understanding an input's proximity to the training data can help a model decide whether it has sufficient evidence for reaching a reliable prediction. While powerful probabilistic models such as Gaussian Processes naturally have this property, deep neural networks often lack it. In this paper, we introduce Distance Aware Bottleneck (DAB), i.e., a new method for enriching deep neural networks with this property. Building on prior information bottleneck approaches, our method learns a codebook that stores a compressed representation of all inputs seen during training. The distance of a new example from this codebook can serve as an uncertainty estimate for the example. The resulting model is simple to train and provides deterministic uncertainty estimates by a single forward pass. Finally, our method achieves better out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and misclassification prediction than prior methods, including expensive ensemble methods, deep kernel Gaussian Processes, and approaches based on the standard information bottleneck.

In this paper, the problem of semantic information extraction for resource constrained text data transmission is studied. In the considered model, a sequence of text data need to be transmitted within a communication resource-constrained network, which only allows limited data transmission. Thus, at the transmitter, the original text data is extracted with natural language processing techniques. Then, the extracted semantic information is captured in a knowledge graph. An additional probability dimension is introduced in this graph to capture the importance of each information. This semantic information extraction problem is posed as an optimization framework whose goal is to extract most important semantic information for transmission. To find an optimal solution for this problem, a Floyd's algorithm based solution coupled with an efficient sorting mechanism is proposed. Numerical results testify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm with regards to two novel performance metrics including semantic uncertainty and semantic similarity.

Most mobile robots for indoor use rely on 2D laser scanners for localization, mapping and navigation. These sensors, however, cannot detect transparent surfaces or measure the full occupancy of complex objects such as tables. Deep Neural Networks have recently been proposed to overcome this limitation by learning to estimate object occupancy. These estimates are nevertheless subject to uncertainty, making the evaluation of their confidence an important issue for these measures to be useful for autonomous navigation and mapping. In this work we approach the problem from two sides. First we discuss uncertainty estimation in deep models, proposing a solution based on a fully convolutional neural network. The proposed architecture is not restricted by the assumption that the uncertainty follows a Gaussian model, as in the case of many popular solutions for deep model uncertainty estimation, such as Monte-Carlo Dropout. We present results showing that uncertainty over obstacle distances is actually better modeled with a Laplace distribution. Then, we propose a novel approach to build maps based on Deep Neural Network uncertainty models. In particular, we present an algorithm to build a map that includes information over obstacle distance estimates while taking into account the level of uncertainty in each estimate. We show how the constructed map can be used to increase global navigation safety by planning trajectories which avoid areas of high uncertainty, enabling higher autonomy for mobile robots in indoor settings.

In the real world, image degradations caused by rain often exhibit a combination of rain streaks and raindrops, thereby increasing the challenges of recovering the underlying clean image. Note that the rain streaks and raindrops have diverse shapes, sizes, and locations in the captured image, and thus modeling the correlation relationship between irregular degradations caused by rain artifacts is a necessary prerequisite for image deraining. This paper aims to present an efficient and flexible mechanism to learn and model degradation relationships in a global view, thereby achieving a unified removal of intricate rain scenes. To do so, we propose a Sparse Sampling Transformer based on Uncertainty-Driven Ranking, dubbed UDR-S2Former. Compared to previous methods, our UDR-S2Former has three merits. First, it can adaptively sample relevant image degradation information to model underlying degradation relationships. Second, explicit application of the uncertainty-driven ranking strategy can facilitate the network to attend to degradation features and understand the reconstruction process. Finally, experimental results show that our UDR-S2Former clearly outperforms state-of-the-art methods for all benchmarks.

Knowledge-based visual question answering (KVQA) task aims to answer questions that require additional external knowledge as well as an understanding of images and questions. Recent studies on KVQA inject an external knowledge in a multi-modal form, and as more knowledge is used, irrelevant information may be added and can confuse the question answering. In order to properly use the knowledge, this study proposes the following: 1) we introduce a novel semantic inconsistency measure computed from caption uncertainty and semantic similarity; 2) we suggest a new external knowledge assimilation method based on the semantic inconsistency measure and apply it to integrate explicit knowledge and implicit knowledge for KVQA; 3) the proposed method is evaluated with the OK-VQA dataset and achieves the state-of-the-art performance.

Fine-tuned large language models (LLMs) often exhibit overconfidence, particularly when trained on small datasets, resulting in poor calibration and inaccurate uncertainty estimates. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL), an uncertainty-aware approach, enables uncertainty estimation in a single forward pass, making it a promising method for calibrating fine-tuned LLMs. However, despite its computational efficiency, EDL is prone to overfitting, as its training objective can result in overly concentrated probability distributions. To mitigate this, we propose regularizing EDL by incorporating an information bottleneck (IB). Our approach IB-EDL suppresses spurious information in the evidence generated by the model and encourages truly predictive information to influence both the predictions and uncertainty estimates. Extensive experiments across various fine-tuned LLMs and tasks demonstrate that IB-EDL outperforms both existing EDL and non-EDL approaches. By improving the trustworthiness of LLMs, IB-EDL facilitates their broader adoption in domains requiring high levels of confidence calibration. Code is available at https://github.com/sandylaker/ib-edl.

Background and Objective: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is a side effect of thoracic radiation therapy. Recently, Machine learning (ML) models enhanced with radiomic and dosiomic features provide better predictions by incorporating spatial information beyond DVHs. However, to improve the clinical decision process, we propose to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve the confidence in model prediction. This study evaluates the impact of post hoc UQ methods on the discriminative performance and calibration of ML models for RP prediction. Methods: This study evaluated four ML models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and random forest (RF), using radiomic, dosiomic, and dosimetric features to predict RP. We applied UQ methods, including Patt scaling, isotonic regression, Venn-ABERS predictor, and Conformal Prediction, to quantify uncertainty. Model performance was assessed through Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC), Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC), and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). Results: UQ methods enhanced predictive performance, particularly for high-certainty predictions, while also improving calibration. Radiomic and dosiomic features increased model accuracy but introduced calibration challenges, especially for non-linear models like XGB and RF. Performance gains from UQ methods were most noticeable at higher certainty thresholds. Conclusion: Integrating UQ into ML models with radiomic and dosiomic features improves both predictive accuracy and calibration, supporting more reliable clinical decision-making. The findings emphasize the value of UQ methods in enhancing applicability of predictive models for RP in healthcare settings.

Semi-supervised learning relaxes the need of large pixel-wise labeled datasets for image segmentation by leveraging unlabeled data. A prominent way to exploit unlabeled data is to regularize model predictions. Since the predictions of unlabeled data can be unreliable, uncertainty-aware schemes are typically employed to gradually learn from meaningful and reliable predictions. Uncertainty estimation methods, however, rely on multiple inferences from the model predictions that must be computed for each training step, which is computationally expensive. Moreover, these uncertainty maps capture pixel-wise disparities and do not consider global information. This work proposes a novel method to estimate segmentation uncertainty by leveraging global information from the segmentation masks. More precisely, an anatomically-aware representation is first learnt to model the available segmentation masks. The learnt representation thereupon maps the prediction of a new segmentation into an anatomically-plausible segmentation. The deviation from the plausible segmentation aids in estimating the underlying pixel-level uncertainty in order to further guide the segmentation network. The proposed method consequently estimates the uncertainty using a single inference from our representation, thereby reducing the total computation. We evaluate our method on two publicly available segmentation datasets of left atria in cardiac MRIs and of multiple organs in abdominal CTs. Our anatomically-aware method improves the segmentation accuracy over the state-of-the-art semi-supervised methods in terms of two commonly used evaluation metrics.

Several neural-based metrics have been recently proposed to evaluate machine translation quality. However, all of them resort to point estimates, which provide limited information at segment level. This is made worse as they are trained on noisy, biased and scarce human judgements, often resulting in unreliable quality predictions. In this paper, we introduce uncertainty-aware MT evaluation and analyze the trustworthiness of the predicted quality. We combine the COMET framework with two uncertainty estimation methods, Monte Carlo dropout and deep ensembles, to obtain quality scores along with confidence intervals. We compare the performance of our uncertainty-aware MT evaluation methods across multiple language pairs from the QT21 dataset and the WMT20 metrics task, augmented with MQM annotations. We experiment with varying numbers of references and further discuss the usefulness of uncertainty-aware quality estimation (without references) to flag possibly critical translation mistakes.

Instance embeddings are an efficient and versatile image representation that facilitates applications like recognition, verification, retrieval, and clustering. Many metric learning methods represent the input as a single point in the embedding space. Often the distance between points is used as a proxy for match confidence. However, this can fail to represent uncertainty arising when the input is ambiguous, e.g., due to occlusion or blurriness. This work addresses this issue and explicitly models the uncertainty by hedging the location of each input in the embedding space. We introduce the hedged instance embedding (HIB) in which embeddings are modeled as random variables and the model is trained under the variational information bottleneck principle. Empirical results on our new N-digit MNIST dataset show that our method leads to the desired behavior of hedging its bets across the embedding space upon encountering ambiguous inputs. This results in improved performance for image matching and classification tasks, more structure in the learned embedding space, and an ability to compute a per-exemplar uncertainty measure that is correlated with downstream performance.

Relightable object acquisition is a key challenge in simplifying digital asset creation. Complete reconstruction of an object typically requires capturing hundreds to thousands of photographs under controlled illumination, with specialized equipment. The recent progress in differentiable rendering improved the quality and accessibility of inverse rendering optimization. Nevertheless, under uncontrolled illumination and unstructured viewpoints, there is no guarantee that the observations contain enough information to reconstruct the appearance properties of the captured object. We thus propose to consider the acquisition process from a signal-processing perspective. Given an object's geometry and a lighting environment, we estimate the properties of the materials on the object's surface in seconds. We do so by leveraging frequency domain analysis, considering the recovery of material properties as a deconvolution, enabling fast error estimation. We then quantify the uncertainty of the estimation, based on the available data, highlighting the areas for which priors or additional samples would be required for improved acquisition quality. We compare our approach to previous work and quantitatively evaluate our results, showing similar quality as previous work in a fraction of the time, and providing key information about the certainty of the results.

We propose a learning-based method to recover normals, specularity, and roughness from a single diffuse image of a material, using microgeometry appearance as our primary cue. Previous methods that work on single images tend to produce over-smooth outputs with artifacts, operate at limited resolution, or train one model per class with little room for generalization. Previous methods that work on single images tend to produce over-smooth outputs with artifacts, operate at limited resolution, or train one model per class with little room for generalization. In contrast, in this work, we propose a novel capture approach that leverages a generative network with attention and a U-Net discriminator, which shows outstanding performance integrating global information at reduced computational complexity. We showcase the performance of our method with a real dataset of digitized textile materials and show that a commodity flatbed scanner can produce the type of diffuse illumination required as input to our method. Additionally, because the problem might be illposed -more than a single diffuse image might be needed to disambiguate the specular reflection- or because the training dataset is not representative enough of the real distribution, we propose a novel framework to quantify the model's confidence about its prediction at test time. Our method is the first one to deal with the problem of modeling uncertainty in material digitization, increasing the trustworthiness of the process and enabling more intelligent strategies for dataset creation, as we demonstrate with an active learning experiment.

Recent studies have successfully shown that large language models (LLMs) can be successfully used for generative error correction (GER) on top of the automatic speech recognition (ASR) output. Specifically, an LLM is utilized to carry out a direct mapping from the N-best hypotheses list generated by an ASR system to the predicted output transcription. However, despite its effectiveness, GER introduces extra data uncertainty since the LLM is trained without taking into account acoustic information available in the speech signal. In this work, we aim to overcome such a limitation by infusing acoustic information before generating the predicted transcription through a novel late fusion solution termed Uncertainty-Aware Dynamic Fusion (UADF). UADF is a multimodal fusion approach implemented into an auto-regressive decoding process and works in two stages: (i) It first analyzes and calibrates the token-level LLM decision, and (ii) it then dynamically assimilates the information from the acoustic modality. Experimental evidence collected from various ASR tasks shows that UADF surpasses existing fusion mechanisms in several ways. It yields significant improvements in word error rate (WER) while mitigating data uncertainty issues in LLM and addressing the poor generalization relied with sole modality during fusion. We also demonstrate that UADF seamlessly adapts to audio-visual speech recognition.

Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information or model fine-tuning, have become less suitable for LLMs, especially closed-source commercial APIs. This leads to a growing need to explore the untapped area of black-box approaches for LLM uncertainty estimation. To better break down the problem, we define a systematic framework with three components: prompting strategies for eliciting verbalized confidence, sampling methods for generating multiple responses, and aggregation techniques for computing consistency. We then benchmark these methods on two key tasks-confidence calibration and failure prediction-across five types of datasets (e.g., commonsense and arithmetic reasoning) and five widely-used LLMs including GPT-4 and LLaMA 2 Chat. Our analysis uncovers several key insights: 1) LLMs, when verbalizing their confidence, tend to be overconfident, potentially imitating human patterns of expressing confidence. 2) As model capability scales up, both calibration and failure prediction performance improve. 3) Employing our proposed strategies, such as human-inspired prompts, consistency among multiple responses, and better aggregation strategies can help mitigate this overconfidence from various perspectives. 4) Comparisons with white-box methods indicate that while white-box methods perform better, the gap is narrow, e.g., 0.522 to 0.605 in AUROC. Despite these advancements, none of these techniques consistently outperform others, and all investigated methods struggle in challenging tasks, such as those requiring professional knowledge, indicating significant scope for improvement. We believe this study can serve as a strong baseline and provide insights for eliciting confidence in black-box LLMs.

Multimodal semantic understanding often has to deal with uncertainty, which means the obtained messages tend to refer to multiple targets. Such uncertainty is problematic for our interpretation, including inter- and intra-modal uncertainty. Little effort has studied the modeling of this uncertainty, particularly in pre-training on unlabeled datasets and fine-tuning in task-specific downstream datasets. In this paper, we project the representations of all modalities as probabilistic distributions via a Probability Distribution Encoder (PDE) by utilizing sequence-level interactions. Compared to the existing deterministic methods, such uncertainty modeling can convey richer multimodal semantic information and more complex relationships. Furthermore, we integrate uncertainty modeling with popular pre-training frameworks and propose suitable pre-training tasks: Distribution-based Vision-Language Contrastive learning (D-VLC), Distribution-based Masked Language Modeling (D-MLM), and Distribution-based Image-Text Matching (D-ITM). The fine-tuned models are applied to challenging downstream tasks, including image-text retrieval, visual question answering, visual reasoning, and visual entailment, and achieve state-of-the-art results.

To mitigate the impact of hallucination nature of LLMs, many studies propose detecting hallucinated generation through uncertainty estimation. However, these approaches predominantly operate at the sentence or paragraph level, failing to pinpoint specific spans or entities responsible for hallucinated content. This lack of granularity is especially problematic for long-form outputs that mix accurate and fabricated information. To address this limitation, we explore entity-level hallucination detection. We propose a new data set, HalluEntity, which annotates hallucination at the entity level. Based on the dataset, we comprehensively evaluate uncertainty-based hallucination detection approaches across 17 modern LLMs. Our experimental results show that uncertainty estimation approaches focusing on individual token probabilities tend to over-predict hallucinations, while context-aware methods show better but still suboptimal performance. Through an in-depth qualitative study, we identify relationships between hallucination tendencies and linguistic properties and highlight important directions for future research.

We introduce UPose3D, a novel approach for multi-view 3D human pose estimation, addressing challenges in accuracy and scalability. Our method advances existing pose estimation frameworks by improving robustness and flexibility without requiring direct 3D annotations. At the core of our method, a pose compiler module refines predictions from a 2D keypoints estimator that operates on a single image by leveraging temporal and cross-view information. Our novel cross-view fusion strategy is scalable to any number of cameras, while our synthetic data generation strategy ensures generalization across diverse actors, scenes, and viewpoints. Finally, UPose3D leverages the prediction uncertainty of both the 2D keypoint estimator and the pose compiler module. This provides robustness to outliers and noisy data, resulting in state-of-the-art performance in out-of-distribution settings. In addition, for in-distribution settings, UPose3D yields performance rivalling methods that rely on 3D annotated data while being the state-of-the-art among methods relying only on 2D supervision.

Adverse weather image translation belongs to the unsupervised image-to-image (I2I) translation task which aims to transfer adverse condition domain (eg, rainy night) to standard domain (eg, day). It is a challenging task because images from adverse domains have some artifacts and insufficient information. Recently, many studies employing Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have achieved notable success in I2I translation but there are still limitations in applying them to adverse weather enhancement. Symmetric architecture based on bidirectional cycle-consistency loss is adopted as a standard framework for unsupervised domain transfer methods. However, it can lead to inferior translation result if the two domains have imbalanced information. To address this issue, we propose a novel GAN model, i.e., AU-GAN, which has an asymmetric architecture for adverse domain translation. We insert a proposed feature transfer network ({T}-net) in only a normal domain generator (i.e., rainy night-> day) to enhance encoded features of the adverse domain image. In addition, we introduce asymmetric feature matching for disentanglement of encoded features. Finally, we propose uncertainty-aware cycle-consistency loss to address the regional uncertainty of a cyclic reconstructed image. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by qualitative and quantitative comparisons with state-of-the-art models. Codes are available at https://github.com/jgkwak95/AU-GAN.

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) improves correctness of Question Answering (QA) and addresses hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), yet greatly increase computational costs. Besides, RAG is not always needed as may introduce irrelevant information. Recent adaptive retrieval methods integrate LLMs' intrinsic knowledge with external information appealing to LLM self-knowledge, but they often neglect efficiency evaluations and comparisons with uncertainty estimation techniques. We bridge this gap by conducting a comprehensive analysis of 35 adaptive retrieval methods, including 8 recent approaches and 27 uncertainty estimation techniques, across 6 datasets using 10 metrics for QA performance, self-knowledge, and efficiency. Our findings show that uncertainty estimation techniques often outperform complex pipelines in terms of efficiency and self-knowledge, while maintaining comparable QA performance.

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of natural language processing with their impressive reasoning and question-answering capabilities. However, these models are sometimes prone to generating credible-sounding but incorrect information, a phenomenon known as LLM hallucinations. Reliable uncertainty estimation in LLMs is essential for fostering trust in their generated responses and serves as a critical tool for the detection and prevention of erroneous or hallucinated outputs. To achieve reliable and well-calibrated uncertainty quantification in open-ended and free-form natural language generation, we propose an uncertainty-aware fine-tuning approach for LLMs. This approach enhances the model's ability to provide reliable uncertainty estimates without compromising accuracy, thereby guiding them to produce more trustworthy responses. We introduce a novel uncertainty-aware causal language modeling loss function, grounded in the principles of decision theory. Through rigorous evaluation on multiple free-form question-answering datasets and models, we demonstrate that our uncertainty-aware fine-tuning approach yields better calibrated uncertainty estimates in natural language generation tasks than fine-tuning with the standard causal language modeling loss. Furthermore, the experimental results show that the proposed method significantly improves the model's ability to detect hallucinations and identify out-of-domain prompts.

Mixup data augmentation approaches have been applied for various tasks of deep learning to improve the generalization ability of deep neural networks. Some existing approaches CutMix, SaliencyMix, etc. randomly replace a patch in one image with patches from another to generate the mixed image. Similarly, the corresponding labels are linearly combined by a fixed ratio lambda by l. The objects in two images may be overlapped during the mixing process, so some semantic information is corrupted in the mixed samples. In this case, the mixed image does not match the mixed label information. Besides, such a label may mislead the deep learning model training, which results in poor performance. To solve this problem, we proposed a novel approach named SUMix to learn the mixing ratio as well as the uncertainty for the mixed samples during the training process. First, we design a learnable similarity function to compute an accurate mix ratio. Second, an approach is investigated as a regularized term to model the uncertainty of the mixed samples. We conduct experiments on five image benchmarks, and extensive experimental results imply that our method is capable of improving the performance of classifiers with different cutting-based mixup approaches. The source code is available at https://github.com/JinXins/SUMix.

Predicting simple function classes has been widely used as a testbed for developing theory and understanding of the trained Transformer's in-context learning (ICL) ability. In this paper, we revisit the training of Transformers on linear regression tasks, and different from all the existing literature, we consider a bi-objective prediction task of predicting both the conditional expectation E[Y|X] and the conditional variance Var(Y|X). This additional uncertainty quantification objective provides a handle to (i) better design out-of-distribution experiments to distinguish ICL from in-weight learning (IWL) and (ii) make a better separation between the algorithms with and without using the prior information of the training distribution. Theoretically, we show that the trained Transformer reaches near Bayes-optimum, suggesting the usage of the information of the training distribution. Our method can be extended to other cases. Specifically, with the Transformer's context window S, we prove a generalization bound of mathcal{O}(min{S, T/(n T)}) on n tasks with sequences of length T, providing sharper analysis compared to previous results of mathcal{O}(1/n). Empirically, we illustrate that while the trained Transformer behaves as the Bayes-optimal solution as a natural consequence of supervised training in distribution, it does not necessarily perform a Bayesian inference when facing task shifts, in contrast to the equivalence between these two proposed in many existing literature. We also demonstrate the trained Transformer's ICL ability over covariates shift and prompt-length shift and interpret them as a generalization over a meta distribution.

As a promising fashion for visual localization, scene coordinate regression (SCR) has seen tremendous progress in the past decade. Most recent methods usually adopt neural networks to learn the mapping from image pixels to 3D scene coordinates, which requires a vast amount of annotated training data. We propose to leverage Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) to generate training samples for SCR. Despite NeRF's efficiency in rendering, many of the rendered data are polluted by artifacts or only contain minimal information gain, which can hinder the regression accuracy or bring unnecessary computational costs with redundant data. These challenges are addressed in three folds in this paper: (1) A NeRF is designed to separately predict uncertainties for the rendered color and depth images, which reveal data reliability at the pixel level. (2) SCR is formulated as deep evidential learning with epistemic uncertainty, which is used to evaluate information gain and scene coordinate quality. (3) Based on the three arts of uncertainties, a novel view selection policy is formed that significantly improves data efficiency. Experiments on public datasets demonstrate that our method could select the samples that bring the most information gain and promote the performance with the highest efficiency.

We consider the problem of video snapshot compressive imaging (SCI), where sequential high-speed frames are modulated by different masks and captured by a single measurement. The underlying principle of reconstructing multi-frame images from only one single measurement is to solve an ill-posed problem. By combining optimization algorithms and neural networks, deep unfolding networks (DUNs) score tremendous achievements in solving inverse problems. In this paper, our proposed model is under the DUN framework and we propose a 3D Convolution-Transformer Mixture (CTM) module with a 3D efficient and scalable attention model plugged in, which helps fully learn the correlation between temporal and spatial dimensions by virtue of Transformer. To our best knowledge, this is the first time that Transformer is employed to video SCI reconstruction. Besides, to further investigate the high-frequency information during the reconstruction process which are neglected in previous studies, we introduce variance estimation characterizing the uncertainty on a pixel-by-pixel basis. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) (with a 1.2dB gain in PSNR over previous SOTA algorithm) results. We will release the code.

Machine learning (ML) enabled classification models are becoming increasingly popular for tackling the sheer volume and speed of online misinformation and other content that could be identified as harmful. In building these models, data scientists need to take a stance on the legitimacy, authoritativeness and objectivity of the sources of ``truth" used for model training and testing. This has political, ethical and epistemic implications which are rarely addressed in technical papers. Despite (and due to) their reported high accuracy and performance, ML-driven moderation systems have the potential to shape online public debate and create downstream negative impacts such as undue censorship and the reinforcing of false beliefs. Using collaborative ethnography and theoretical insights from social studies of science and expertise, we offer a critical analysis of the process of building ML models for (mis)information classification: we identify a series of algorithmic contingencies--key moments during model development that could lead to different future outcomes, uncertainty and harmful effects as these tools are deployed by social media platforms. We conclude by offering a tentative path toward reflexive and responsible development of ML tools for moderating misinformation and other harmful content online.

We propose a keypoint-based object-level SLAM framework that can provide globally consistent 6DoF pose estimates for symmetric and asymmetric objects alike. To the best of our knowledge, our system is among the first to utilize the camera pose information from SLAM to provide prior knowledge for tracking keypoints on symmetric objects -- ensuring that new measurements are consistent with the current 3D scene. Moreover, our semantic keypoint network is trained to predict the Gaussian covariance for the keypoints that captures the true error of the prediction, and thus is not only useful as a weight for the residuals in the system's optimization problems, but also as a means to detect harmful statistical outliers without choosing a manual threshold. Experiments show that our method provides competitive performance to the state of the art in 6DoF object pose estimation, and at a real-time speed. Our code, pre-trained models, and keypoint labels are available https://github.com/rpng/suo_slam.

Despite increasingly fluent, relevant, and coherent language generation, major gaps remain between how humans and machines use language. We argue that a key dimension that is missing from our understanding of language models (LMs) is the model's ability to interpret and generate expressions of uncertainty. Whether it be the weatherperson announcing a chance of rain or a doctor giving a diagnosis, information is often not black-and-white and expressions of uncertainty provide nuance to support human-decision making. The increasing deployment of LMs in the wild motivates us to investigate whether LMs are capable of interpreting expressions of uncertainty and how LMs' behaviors change when learning to emit their own expressions of uncertainty. When injecting expressions of uncertainty into prompts (e.g., "I think the answer is..."), we discover that GPT3's generations vary upwards of 80% in accuracy based on the expression used. We analyze the linguistic characteristics of these expressions and find a drop in accuracy when naturalistic expressions of certainty are present. We find similar effects when teaching models to emit their own expressions of uncertainty, where model calibration suffers when teaching models to emit certainty rather than uncertainty. Together, these results highlight the challenges of building LMs that interpret and generate trustworthy expressions of uncertainty.

Drone-based vehicle detection aims at finding the vehicle locations and categories in an aerial image. It empowers smart city traffic management and disaster rescue. Researchers have made mount of efforts in this area and achieved considerable progress. Nevertheless, it is still a challenge when the objects are hard to distinguish, especially in low light conditions. To tackle this problem, we construct a large-scale drone-based RGB-Infrared vehicle detection dataset, termed DroneVehicle. Our DroneVehicle collects 28, 439 RGB-Infrared image pairs, covering urban roads, residential areas, parking lots, and other scenarios from day to night. Due to the great gap between RGB and infrared images, cross-modal images provide both effective information and redundant information. To address this dilemma, we further propose an uncertainty-aware cross-modality vehicle detection (UA-CMDet) framework to extract complementary information from cross-modal images, which can significantly improve the detection performance in low light conditions. An uncertainty-aware module (UAM) is designed to quantify the uncertainty weights of each modality, which is calculated by the cross-modal Intersection over Union (IoU) and the RGB illumination value. Furthermore, we design an illumination-aware cross-modal non-maximum suppression algorithm to better integrate the modal-specific information in the inference phase. Extensive experiments on the DroneVehicle dataset demonstrate the flexibility and effectiveness of the proposed method for crossmodality vehicle detection. The dataset can be download from https://github.com/VisDrone/DroneVehicle.

Large Language models (LLMs) have become a research hotspot. To accelerate the inference of LLMs, storing computed caches in memory has become the standard technique. However, as the inference length increases, growing KV caches might lead to out-of-memory issues. Many existing methods address this issue through KV cache compression, primarily by preserving key tokens throughout all layers to reduce information loss. Most of them allocate a uniform budget size for each layer to retain. However, we observe that the minimum budget sizes needed to retain essential information vary across layers and models based on the perspectives of attention and hidden state output. Building on this observation, this paper proposes a simple yet effective KV cache compression method that leverages layer uncertainty to allocate budget size for each layer. Experimental results show that the proposed method can reduce memory usage of the KV caches to only sim20\% when compared to Full KV inference while achieving nearly lossless performance.

To effectively exploit the potential of large-scale models, various pre-training strategies supported by massive data from different sources are proposed, including supervised pre-training, weakly-supervised pre-training, and self-supervised pre-training. It has been proved that combining multiple pre-training strategies and data from various modalities/sources can greatly boost the training of large-scale models. However, current works adopt a multi-stage pre-training system, where the complex pipeline may increase the uncertainty and instability of the pre-training. It is thus desirable that these strategies can be integrated in a single-stage manner. In this paper, we first propose a general multi-modal mutual information formula as a unified optimization target and demonstrate that all existing approaches are special cases of our framework. Under this unified perspective, we propose an all-in-one single-stage pre-training approach, named Maximizing Multi-modal Mutual Information Pre-training (M3I Pre-training). Our approach achieves better performance than previous pre-training methods on various vision benchmarks, including ImageNet classification, COCO object detection, LVIS long-tailed object detection, and ADE20k semantic segmentation. Notably, we successfully pre-train a billion-level parameter image backbone and achieve state-of-the-art performance on various benchmarks. Code shall be released at https://github.com/OpenGVLab/M3I-Pretraining.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation equips large language models with the capability to retrieve external knowledge, thereby mitigating hallucinations by incorporating information beyond the model's intrinsic abilities. However, most prior works have focused on invoking retrieval deterministically, which makes it unsuitable for tasks such as long-form question answering. Instead, dynamically performing retrieval by invoking it only when the underlying LLM lacks the required knowledge can be more efficient. In this context, we delve deeper into the question, "To Retrieve or Not to Retrieve?" by exploring multiple uncertainty detection methods. We evaluate these methods for the task of long-form question answering, employing dynamic retrieval, and present our comparisons. Our findings suggest that uncertainty detection metrics, such as Degree Matrix Jaccard and Eccentricity, can reduce the number of retrieval calls by almost half, with only a slight reduction in question-answering accuracy.

User prompts for generative AI models are often underspecified, leading to sub-optimal responses. This problem is particularly evident in text-to-image (T2I) generation, where users commonly struggle to articulate their precise intent. This disconnect between the user's vision and the model's interpretation often forces users to painstakingly and repeatedly refine their prompts. To address this, we propose a design for proactive T2I agents equipped with an interface to (1) actively ask clarification questions when uncertain, and (2) present their understanding of user intent as an understandable belief graph that a user can edit. We build simple prototypes for such agents and verify their effectiveness through both human studies and automated evaluation. We observed that at least 90% of human subjects found these agents and their belief graphs helpful for their T2I workflow. Moreover, we develop a scalable automated evaluation approach using two agents, one with a ground truth image and the other tries to ask as few questions as possible to align with the ground truth. On DesignBench, a benchmark we created for artists and designers, the COCO dataset (Lin et al., 2014), and ImageInWords (Garg et al., 2024), we observed that these T2I agents were able to ask informative questions and elicit crucial information to achieve successful alignment with at least 2 times higher VQAScore (Lin et al., 2024) than the standard single-turn T2I generation. Demo: https://github.com/google-deepmind/proactive_t2i_agents.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly becoming ubiquitous, yet their ability to reason about and retain temporal information remains limited. This hinders their application in real-world scenarios where understanding the sequential nature of events is crucial. This paper experiments with state-of-the-art models on a novel, large-scale temporal dataset, TempUN, to reveal significant limitations in temporal retention and reasoning abilities. Interestingly, closed-source models indicate knowledge gaps more frequently, potentially suggesting a trade-off between uncertainty awareness and incorrect responses. Further, exploring various fine-tuning approaches yielded no major performance improvements. The associated dataset and code are available at the following URL (https://github.com/lingoiitgn/TempUN).

In an educational setting, an estimate of the difficulty of multiple-choice questions (MCQs), a commonly used strategy to assess learning progress, constitutes very useful information for both teachers and students. Since human assessment is costly from multiple points of view, automatic approaches to MCQ item difficulty estimation are investigated, yielding however mixed success until now. Our approach to this problem takes a different angle from previous work: asking various Large Language Models to tackle the questions included in two different MCQ datasets, we leverage model uncertainty to estimate item difficulty. By using both model uncertainty features as well as textual features in a Random Forest regressor, we show that uncertainty features contribute substantially to difficulty prediction, where difficulty is inversely proportional to the number of students who can correctly answer a question. In addition to showing the value of our approach, we also observe that our model achieves state-of-the-art results on the BEA publicly available dataset.

Accurate segmentation of tumors in PET/CT images is important in computer-aided diagnosis and treatment of cancer. The key issue of such a segmentation problem lies in the effective integration of complementary information from PET and CT images. However, the quality of PET and CT images varies widely in clinical settings, which leads to uncertainty in the modality information extracted by networks. To take the uncertainty into account in multi-modal information fusion, this paper proposes a novel Multi-modal Evidential Fusion Network (MEFN) comprising a Cross-Modal Feature Learning (CFL) module and a Multi-modal Trusted Fusion (MTF) module. The CFL module reduces the domain gap upon modality conversion and highlights common tumor features, thereby alleviating the needs of the segmentation module to handle modality specificity. The MTF module utilizes mutual attention mechanisms and an uncertainty calibrator to fuse modality features based on modality uncertainty and then fuse the segmentation results under the guidance of Dempster-Shafer Theory. Besides, a new uncertainty perceptual loss is introduced to force the model focusing on uncertain features and hence improve its ability to extract trusted modality information. Extensive comparative experiments are conducted on two publicly available PET/CT datasets to evaluate the performance of our proposed method whose results demonstrate that our MEFN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods with improvements of 2.15% and 3.23% in DSC scores on the AutoPET dataset and the Hecktor dataset, respectively. More importantly, our model can provide radiologists with credible uncertainty of the segmentation results for their decision in accepting or rejecting the automatic segmentation results, which is particularly important for clinical applications. Our code will be available at https://github.com/QPaws/MEFN.

Statistical shape modeling (SSM) enables population-based quantitative analysis of anatomical shapes, informing clinical diagnosis. Deep learning approaches predict correspondence-based SSM directly from unsegmented 3D images but require calibrated uncertainty quantification, motivating Bayesian formulations. Variational information bottleneck DeepSSM (VIB-DeepSSM) is an effective, principled framework for predicting probabilistic shapes of anatomy from images with aleatoric uncertainty quantification. However, VIB is only half-Bayesian and lacks epistemic uncertainty inference. We derive a fully Bayesian VIB formulation and demonstrate the efficacy of two scalable implementation approaches: concrete dropout and batch ensemble. Additionally, we introduce a novel combination of the two that further enhances uncertainty calibration via multimodal marginalization. Experiments on synthetic shapes and left atrium data demonstrate that the fully Bayesian VIB network predicts SSM from images with improved uncertainty reasoning without sacrificing accuracy.

The goal of voice conversion is to transform source speech into a target voice, keeping the content unchanged. In this paper, we focus on self-supervised representation learning for voice conversion. Specifically, we compare discrete and soft speech units as input features. We find that discrete representations effectively remove speaker information but discard some linguistic content - leading to mispronunciations. As a solution, we propose soft speech units. To learn soft units, we predict a distribution over discrete speech units. By modeling uncertainty, soft units capture more content information, improving the intelligibility and naturalness of converted speech. Samples available at https://ubisoft-laforge.github.io/speech/soft-vc/. Code available at https://github.com/bshall/soft-vc/.

Despite the significant progress of large language models (LLMs) in various tasks, they often produce factual errors due to their limited internal knowledge. Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), which enhances LLMs with external knowledge sources, offers a promising solution. However, these methods can be misled by irrelevant paragraphs in retrieved documents. Due to the inherent uncertainty in LLM generation, inputting the entire document may introduce off-topic information, causing the model to deviate from the central topic and affecting the relevance of the generated content. To address these issues, we propose the Retrieve-Plan-Generation (RPG) framework. RPG generates plan tokens to guide subsequent generation in the plan stage. In the answer stage, the model selects relevant fine-grained paragraphs based on the plan and uses them for further answer generation. This plan-answer process is repeated iteratively until completion, enhancing generation relevance by focusing on specific topics. To implement this framework efficiently, we utilize a simple but effective multi-task prompt-tuning method, enabling the existing LLMs to handle both planning and answering. We comprehensively compare RPG with baselines across 5 knowledge-intensive generation tasks, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach.

In this position paper, we argue that human evaluation of generative large language models (LLMs) should be a multidisciplinary undertaking that draws upon insights from disciplines such as user experience research and human behavioral psychology to ensure that the experimental design and results are reliable. The conclusions from these evaluations, thus, must consider factors such as usability, aesthetics, and cognitive biases. We highlight how cognitive biases can conflate fluent information and truthfulness, and how cognitive uncertainty affects the reliability of rating scores such as Likert. Furthermore, the evaluation should differentiate the capabilities and weaknesses of increasingly powerful large language models -- which requires effective test sets. The scalability of human evaluation is also crucial to wider adoption. Hence, to design an effective human evaluation system in the age of generative NLP, we propose the ConSiDERS-The-Human evaluation framework consisting of 6 pillars -- Consistency, Scoring Criteria, Differentiating, User Experience, Responsible, and Scalability.

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former comes from the lack of knowledge about the ground truth (such as about facts or the language), and the latter comes from irreducible randomness (such as multiple possible answers). In particular, we derive an information-theoretic metric that allows to reliably detect when only epistemic uncertainty is large, in which case the output of the model is unreliable. This condition can be computed based solely on the output of the model obtained simply by some special iterative prompting based on the previous responses. Such quantification, for instance, allows to detect hallucinations (cases when epistemic uncertainty is high) in both single- and multi-answer responses. This is in contrast to many standard uncertainty quantification strategies (such as thresholding the log-likelihood of a response) where hallucinations in the multi-answer case cannot be detected. We conduct a series of experiments which demonstrate the advantage of our formulation. Further, our investigations shed some light on how the probabilities assigned to a given output by an LLM can be amplified by iterative prompting, which might be of independent interest.

There has been a growing effort to replace hand extraction of data from research papers with automated data extraction based on natural language processing, language models, and recently, large language models (LLMs). Although these methods enable efficient extraction of data from large sets of research papers, they require a significant amount of up-front effort, expertise, and coding. In this work we propose the ChatExtract method that can fully automate very accurate data extraction with minimal initial effort and background, using an advanced conversational LLM. ChatExtract consists of a set of engineered prompts applied to a conversational LLM that both identify sentences with data, extract that data, and assure the data's correctness through a series of follow-up questions. These follow-up questions largely overcome known issues with LLMs providing factually inaccurate responses. ChatExtract can be applied with any conversational LLMs and yields very high quality data extraction. In tests on materials data we find precision and recall both close to 90% from the best conversational LLMs, like ChatGPT-4. We demonstrate that the exceptional performance is enabled by the information retention in a conversational model combined with purposeful redundancy and introducing uncertainty through follow-up prompts. These results suggest that approaches similar to ChatExtract, due to their simplicity, transferability, and accuracy are likely to become powerful tools for data extraction in the near future. Finally, databases for critical cooling rates of metallic glasses and yield strengths of high entropy alloys are developed using ChatExtract.

Recognizing the prevalence of domain shift as a common challenge in machine learning, various domain generalization (DG) techniques have been developed to enhance the performance of machine learning systems when dealing with out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Furthermore, in real-world scenarios, data distributions can gradually change across a sequence of sequential domains. While current methodologies primarily focus on improving model effectiveness within these new domains, they often overlook fairness issues throughout the learning process. In response, we introduce an innovative framework called Counterfactual Fairness-Aware Domain Generalization with Sequential Autoencoder (CDSAE). This approach effectively separates environmental information and sensitive attributes from the embedded representation of classification features. This concurrent separation not only greatly improves model generalization across diverse and unfamiliar domains but also effectively addresses challenges related to unfair classification. Our strategy is rooted in the principles of causal inference to tackle these dual issues. To examine the intricate relationship between semantic information, sensitive attributes, and environmental cues, we systematically categorize exogenous uncertainty factors into four latent variables: 1) semantic information influenced by sensitive attributes, 2) semantic information unaffected by sensitive attributes, 3) environmental cues influenced by sensitive attributes, and 4) environmental cues unaffected by sensitive attributes. By incorporating fairness regularization, we exclusively employ semantic information for classification purposes. Empirical validation on synthetic and real-world datasets substantiates the effectiveness of our approach, demonstrating improved accuracy levels while ensuring the preservation of fairness in the evolving landscape of continuous domains.

Impressive performance on point cloud semantic segmentation has been achieved by fully-supervised methods with large amounts of labelled data. As it is labour-intensive to acquire large-scale point cloud data with point-wise labels, many attempts have been made to explore learning 3D point cloud segmentation with limited annotations. Active learning is one of the effective strategies to achieve this purpose but is still under-explored. The most recent methods of this kind measure the uncertainty of each pre-divided region for manual labelling but they suffer from redundant information and require additional efforts for region division. This paper aims at addressing this issue by developing a hierarchical point-based active learning strategy. Specifically, we measure the uncertainty for each point by a hierarchical minimum margin uncertainty module which considers the contextual information at multiple levels. Then, a feature-distance suppression strategy is designed to select important and representative points for manual labelling. Besides, to better exploit the unlabelled data, we build a semi-supervised segmentation framework based on our active strategy. Extensive experiments on the S3DIS and ScanNetV2 datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves 96.5% and 100% performance of fully-supervised baseline with only 0.07% and 0.1% training data, respectively, outperforming the state-of-the-art weakly-supervised and active learning methods. The code will be available at https://github.com/SmiletoE/HPAL.

Facial expression recognition (FER) remains a challenging task due to the ambiguity of expressions. The derived noisy labels significantly harm the performance in real-world scenarios. To address this issue, we present a new FER model named Landmark-Aware Net~(LA-Net), which leverages facial landmarks to mitigate the impact of label noise from two perspectives. Firstly, LA-Net uses landmark information to suppress the uncertainty in expression space and constructs the label distribution of each sample by neighborhood aggregation, which in turn improves the quality of training supervision. Secondly, the model incorporates landmark information into expression representations using the devised expression-landmark contrastive loss. The enhanced expression feature extractor can be less susceptible to label noise. Our method can be integrated with any deep neural network for better training supervision without introducing extra inference costs. We conduct extensive experiments on both in-the-wild datasets and synthetic noisy datasets and demonstrate that LA-Net achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Knowledge hallucination have raised widespread concerns for the security and reliability of deployed LLMs. Previous efforts in detecting hallucinations have been employed at logit-level uncertainty estimation or language-level self-consistency evaluation, where the semantic information is inevitably lost during the token-decoding procedure. Thus, we propose to explore the dense semantic information retained within LLMs' INternal States for hallucInation DEtection (INSIDE). In particular, a simple yet effective EigenScore metric is proposed to better evaluate responses' self-consistency, which exploits the eigenvalues of responses' covariance matrix to measure the semantic consistency/diversity in the dense embedding space. Furthermore, from the perspective of self-consistent hallucination detection, a test time feature clipping approach is explored to truncate extreme activations in the internal states, which reduces overconfident generations and potentially benefits the detection of overconfident hallucinations. Extensive experiments and ablation studies are performed on several popular LLMs and question-answering (QA) benchmarks, showing the effectiveness of our proposal.

Large language models (LLMs) often fail to ask effective questions under uncertainty, making them unreliable in domains where proactive information-gathering is essential for decisionmaking. We present ALFA, a framework that improves LLM question-asking by (i) decomposing the notion of a "good" question into a set of theory-grounded attributes (e.g., clarity, relevance), (ii) controllably synthesizing attribute-specific question variations, and (iii) aligning models via preference-based optimization to explicitly learn to ask better questions along these fine-grained attributes. Focusing on clinical reasoning as a case study, we introduce the MediQ-AskDocs dataset, composed of 17k real-world clinical interactions augmented with 80k attribute-specific preference pairs of follow-up questions, as well as a novel expert-annotated interactive healthcare QA task to evaluate question-asking abilities. Models aligned with ALFA reduce diagnostic errors by 56.6% on MediQ-AskDocs compared to SOTA instruction-tuned LLMs, with a question-level win-rate of 64.4% and strong generalizability. Our findings suggest that explicitly guiding question-asking with structured, fine-grained attributes offers a scalable path to improve LLMs, especially in expert application domains.

Long-horizon planning is hindered by challenges such as uncertainty accumulation, computational complexity, delayed rewards and incomplete information. This work proposes an approach to exploit the task hierarchy from human instructions to facilitate multi-robot planning. Using Large Language Models (LLMs), we propose a two-step approach to translate multi-sentence instructions into a structured language, Hierarchical Linear Temporal Logic (LTL), which serves as a formal representation for planning. Initially, LLMs transform the instructions into a hierarchical representation defined as Hierarchical Task Tree, capturing the logical and temporal relations among tasks. Following this, a domain-specific fine-tuning of LLM translates sub-tasks of each task into flat LTL formulas, aggregating them to form hierarchical LTL specifications. These specifications are then leveraged for planning using off-the-shelf planners. Our framework not only bridges the gap between instructions and algorithmic planning but also showcases the potential of LLMs in harnessing hierarchical reasoning to automate multi-robot task planning. Through evaluations in both simulation and real-world experiments involving human participants, we demonstrate that our method can handle more complex instructions compared to existing methods. The results indicate that our approach achieves higher success rates and lower costs in multi-robot task allocation and plan generation. Demos videos are available at https://youtu.be/7WOrDKxIMIs .

Automatically generating data visualizations in response to human utterances on datasets necessitates a deep semantic understanding of the data utterance, including implicit and explicit references to data attributes, visualization tasks, and necessary data preparation steps. Natural Language Interfaces (NLIs) for data visualization have explored ways to infer such information, yet challenges persist due to inherent uncertainty in human speech. Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) provide an avenue to address these challenges, but their ability to extract the relevant semantic information remains unexplored. In this study, we evaluate four publicly available LLMs (GPT-4, Gemini-Pro, Llama3, and Mixtral), investigating their ability to comprehend utterances even in the presence of uncertainty and identify the relevant data context and visual tasks. Our findings reveal that LLMs are sensitive to uncertainties in utterances. Despite this sensitivity, they are able to extract the relevant data context. However, LLMs struggle with inferring visualization tasks. Based on these results, we highlight future research directions on using LLMs for visualization generation.

The ability to acknowledge the inevitable uncertainty in their knowledge and reasoning is a prerequisite for AI systems to be truly truthful and reliable. In this paper, we present a taxonomy of uncertainty specific to vision-language AI systems, distinguishing between epistemic uncertainty (arising from a lack of information) and aleatoric uncertainty (due to inherent unpredictability), and further explore finer categories within. Based on this taxonomy, we synthesize a benchmark dataset, CertainlyUncertain, featuring 178K visual question answering (VQA) samples as contrastive pairs. This is achieved by 1) inpainting images to make previously answerable questions into unanswerable ones; and 2) using image captions to prompt large language models for both answerable and unanswerable questions. Additionally, we introduce a new metric confidence-weighted accuracy, that is well correlated with both accuracy and calibration error, to address the shortcomings of existing metrics.

Neural surface representation has demonstrated remarkable success in the areas of novel view synthesis and 3D reconstruction. However, assessing the geometric quality of 3D reconstructions in the absence of ground truth mesh remains a significant challenge, due to its rendering-based optimization process and entangled learning of appearance and geometry with photometric losses. In this paper, we present a novel framework, i.e, GURecon, which establishes a geometric uncertainty field for the neural surface based on geometric consistency. Different from existing methods that rely on rendering-based measurement, GURecon models a continuous 3D uncertainty field for the reconstructed surface, and is learned by an online distillation approach without introducing real geometric information for supervision. Moreover, in order to mitigate the interference of illumination on geometric consistency, a decoupled field is learned and exploited to finetune the uncertainty field. Experiments on various datasets demonstrate the superiority of GURecon in modeling 3D geometric uncertainty, as well as its plug-and-play extension to various neural surface representations and improvement on downstream tasks such as incremental reconstruction. The code and supplementary material are available on the project website: https://zju3dv.github.io/GURecon/.

Ensuring reliable confidence scores from deep networks is of pivotal importance in critical decision-making systems, notably in the medical domain. While recent literature on calibrating deep segmentation networks has led to significant progress, their uncertainty is usually modeled by leveraging the information of individual pixels, which disregards the local structure of the object of interest. In particular, only the recent Spatially Varying Label Smoothing (SVLS) approach addresses this issue by softening the pixel label assignments with a discrete spatial Gaussian kernel. In this work, we first present a constrained optimization perspective of SVLS and demonstrate that it enforces an implicit constraint on soft class proportions of surrounding pixels. Furthermore, our analysis shows that SVLS lacks a mechanism to balance the contribution of the constraint with the primary objective, potentially hindering the optimization process. Based on these observations, we propose a principled and simple solution based on equality constraints on the logit values, which enables to control explicitly both the enforced constraint and the weight of the penalty, offering more flexibility. Comprehensive experiments on a variety of well-known segmentation benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed approach.

Algorithmic Recourse (AR) is the problem of computing a sequence of actions that -- once performed by a user -- overturns an undesirable machine decision. It is paramount that the sequence of actions does not require too much effort for users to implement. Yet, most approaches to AR assume that actions cost the same for all users, and thus may recommend unfairly expensive recourse plans to certain users. Prompted by this observation, we introduce PEAR, the first human-in-the-loop approach capable of providing personalized algorithmic recourse tailored to the needs of any end-user. PEAR builds on insights from Bayesian Preference Elicitation to iteratively refine an estimate of the costs of actions by asking choice set queries to the target user. The queries themselves are computed by maximizing the Expected Utility of Selection, a principled measure of information gain accounting for uncertainty on both the cost estimate and the user's responses. PEAR integrates elicitation into a Reinforcement Learning agent coupled with Monte Carlo Tree Search to quickly identify promising recourse plans. Our empirical evaluation on real-world datasets highlights how PEAR produces high-quality personalized recourse in only a handful of iterations.

Phylogenetic comparative methods may fail to produce meaningful results when either the underlying model is inappropriate or the data contain insufficient information to inform the inference. The ability to measure the statistical power of these methods has become crucial to ensure that data quantity keeps pace with growing model complexity. Through simulations, we show that commonly applied model choice methods based on information criteria can have remarkably high error rates; this can be a problem because methods to estimate the uncertainty or power are not widely known or applied. Furthermore, the power of comparative methods can depend significantly on the structure of the data. We describe a Monte Carlo based method which addresses both of these challenges, and show how this approach both quantifies and substantially reduces errors relative to information criteria. The method also produces meaningful confidence intervals for model parameters. We illustrate how the power to distinguish different models, such as varying levels of selection, varies both with number of taxa and structure of the phylogeny. We provide an open-source implementation in the pmc ("Phylogenetic Monte Carlo") package for the R programming language. We hope such power analysis becomes a routine part of model comparison in comparative methods.

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so that the model's prediction will be altered. As the predictive model can be updated subject to the future arrival of new data, a counterfactual plan may become ineffective or infeasible with respect to the future values of the model parameters. In this work, we study the counterfactual plans under model uncertainty, in which the distribution of the model parameters is partially prescribed using only the first- and second-moment information. First, we propose an uncertainty quantification tool to compute the lower and upper bounds of the probability of validity for any given counterfactual plan. We then provide corrective methods to adjust the counterfactual plan to improve the validity measure. The numerical experiments validate our bounds and demonstrate that our correction increases the robustness of the counterfactual plans in different real-world datasets.

We consider the task of learning to estimate human pose in still images. In order to avoid the high cost of full supervision, we propose to use a diverse data set, which consists of two types of annotations: (i) a small number of images are labeled using the expensive ground-truth pose; and (ii) other images are labeled using the inexpensive action label. As action information helps narrow down the pose of a human, we argue that this approach can help reduce the cost of training without significantly affecting the accuracy. To demonstrate this we design a probabilistic framework that employs two distributions: (i) a conditional distribution to model the uncertainty over the human pose given the image and the action; and (ii) a prediction distribution, which provides the pose of an image without using any action information. We jointly estimate the parameters of the two aforementioned distributions by minimizing their dissimilarity coefficient, as measured by a task-specific loss function. During both training and testing, we only require an efficient sampling strategy for both the aforementioned distributions. This allows us to use deep probabilistic networks that are capable of providing accurate pose estimates for previously unseen images. Using the MPII data set, we show that our approach outperforms baseline methods that either do not use the diverse annotations or rely on pointwise estimates of the pose.

Understanding the world and explaining it with scientific theories is a central aspiration of artificial intelligence research. Proposing theories, designing experiments to test them, and then revising them based on data are fundamental to scientific discovery. Despite the significant promise of LLM-based scientific agents, no benchmarks systematically test LLM's ability to propose scientific models, collect experimental data, and revise them in light of new data. We introduce BoxingGym, a benchmark with 10 environments for systematically evaluating both experimental design (e.g. collecting data to test a scientific theory) and model discovery (e.g. proposing and revising scientific theories). To enable tractable and quantitative evaluation, we implement each environment as a generative probabilistic model with which a scientific agent can run interactive experiments. These probabilistic models are drawn from various real-world scientific domains ranging from psychology to ecology. To quantitatively evaluate a scientific agent's ability to collect informative experimental data, we compute the expected information gain (EIG), an information-theoretic quantity which measures how much an experiment reduces uncertainty about the parameters of a generative model. A good scientific theory is a concise and predictive explanation. Therefore, to quantitatively evaluate model discovery, we ask a scientific agent to explain their model and then assess whether this explanation enables another scientific agent to make reliable predictions about this environment. In addition to this explanation-based evaluation, we compute standard model evaluation metrics such as prediction errors. We find that current LLMs, such as GPT-4o, struggle with both experimental design and model discovery. We find that augmenting the LLM-based agent with an explicit statistical model does not reliably improve these results.

Ensuring reliable confidence scores from deep neural networks is of paramount significance in critical decision-making systems, particularly in real-world domains such as healthcare. Recent literature on calibrating deep segmentation networks has resulted in substantial progress. Nevertheless, these approaches are strongly inspired by the advancements in classification tasks, and thus their uncertainty is usually modeled by leveraging the information of individual pixels, disregarding the local structure of the object of interest. Indeed, only the recent Spatially Varying Label Smoothing (SVLS) approach considers pixel spatial relationships across classes, by softening the pixel label assignments with a discrete spatial Gaussian kernel. In this work, we first present a constrained optimization perspective of SVLS and demonstrate that it enforces an implicit constraint on soft class proportions of surrounding pixels. Furthermore, our analysis shows that SVLS lacks a mechanism to balance the contribution of the constraint with the primary objective, potentially hindering the optimization process. Based on these observations, we propose NACL (Neighbor Aware CaLibration), a principled and simple solution based on equality constraints on the logit values, which enables to control explicitly both the enforced constraint and the weight of the penalty, offering more flexibility. Comprehensive experiments on a wide variety of well-known segmentation benchmarks demonstrate the superior calibration performance of the proposed approach, without affecting its discriminative power. Furthermore, ablation studies empirically show the model agnostic nature of our approach, which can be used to train a wide span of deep segmentation networks.

The IceCube realtime alert system has been operating since 2016. It provides prompt alerts on high-energy neutrino events to the astroparticle physics community. The localization regions for the incoming direction of neutrinos are published through NASA's Gamma-ray Coordinate Network (GCN). The IceCube realtime system consists of infrastructure dedicated to the selection of alert events, the reconstruction of their topology and arrival direction, the calculation of directional uncertainty contours and the distribution of the event information through public alert networks. Using a message-based workflow management system, a dedicated software (SkyDriver) provides a representational state transfer (REST) interface to parallelized reconstruction algorithms. In this contribution, we outline the improvements of the internal infrastructure of the IceCube realtime system that aims to streamline the internal handling of neutrino events, their distribution to the SkyDriver interface, the collection of the reconstruction results as well as their conversion into human- and machine-readable alerts to be publicly distributed through different alert networks. An approach for the long-term storage and cataloging of alert events according to findability, accessibility, interoperability and reusability (FAIR) principles is outlined.

In contrastive learning, the choice of ``view'' controls the information that the representation captures and influences the performance of the model. However, leading graph contrastive learning methods generally produce views via random corruption or learning, which could lead to the loss of essential information and alteration of semantic information. An anchor view that maintains the essential information of input graphs for contrastive learning has been hardly investigated. In this paper, based on the theory of graph information bottleneck, we deduce the definition of this anchor view; put differently, the anchor view with essential information of input graph is supposed to have the minimal structural uncertainty. Furthermore, guided by structural entropy, we implement the anchor view, termed SEGA, for graph contrastive learning. We extensively validate the proposed anchor view on various benchmarks regarding graph classification under unsupervised, semi-supervised, and transfer learning and achieve significant performance boosts compared to the state-of-the-art methods.

Active learning (AL) aims to select the most useful data samples from an unlabeled data pool and annotate them to expand the labeled dataset under a limited budget. Especially, uncertainty-based methods choose the most uncertain samples, which are known to be effective in improving model performance. However, AL literature often overlooks training dynamics (TD), defined as the ever-changing model behavior during optimization via stochastic gradient descent, even though other areas of literature have empirically shown that TD provides important clues for measuring the sample uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a novel AL method, Training Dynamics for Active Learning (TiDAL), which leverages the TD to quantify uncertainties of unlabeled data. Since tracking the TD of all the large-scale unlabeled data is impractical, TiDAL utilizes an additional prediction module that learns the TD of labeled data. To further justify the design of TiDAL, we provide theoretical and empirical evidence to argue the usefulness of leveraging TD for AL. Experimental results show that our TiDAL achieves better or comparable performance on both balanced and imbalanced benchmark datasets compared to state-of-the-art AL methods, which estimate data uncertainty using only static information after model training.

We study a family of loss functions named label-distributionally robust (LDR) losses for multi-class classification that are formulated from distributionally robust optimization (DRO) perspective, where the uncertainty in the given label information are modeled and captured by taking the worse case of distributional weights. The benefits of this perspective are several fold: (i) it provides a unified framework to explain the classical cross-entropy (CE) loss and SVM loss and their variants, (ii) it includes a special family corresponding to the temperature-scaled CE loss, which is widely adopted but poorly understood; (iii) it allows us to achieve adaptivity to the uncertainty degree of label information at an instance level. Our contributions include: (1) we study both consistency and robustness by establishing top-k (forall kgeq 1) consistency of LDR losses for multi-class classification, and a negative result that a top-1 consistent and symmetric robust loss cannot achieve top-k consistency simultaneously for all kgeq 2; (2) we propose a new adaptive LDR loss that automatically adapts the individualized temperature parameter to the noise degree of class label of each instance; (3) we demonstrate stable and competitive performance for the proposed adaptive LDR loss on 7 benchmark datasets under 6 noisy label and 1 clean settings against 13 loss functions, and on one real-world noisy dataset. The code is open-sourced at https://github.com/Optimization-AI/ICML2023_LDR.

Spreadsheet table detection is the task of detecting all tables on a given sheet and locating their respective ranges. Automatic table detection is a key enabling technique and an initial step in spreadsheet data intelligence. However, the detection task is challenged by the diversity of table structures and table layouts on the spreadsheet. Considering the analogy between a cell matrix as spreadsheet and a pixel matrix as image, and encouraged by the successful application of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) in computer vision, we have developed TableSense, a novel end-to-end framework for spreadsheet table detection. First, we devise an effective cell featurization scheme to better leverage the rich information in each cell; second, we develop an enhanced convolutional neural network model for table detection to meet the domain-specific requirement on precise table boundary detection; third, we propose an effective uncertainty metric to guide an active learning based smart sampling algorithm, which enables the efficient build-up of a training dataset with 22,176 tables on 10,220 sheets with broad coverage of diverse table structures and layouts. Our evaluation shows that TableSense is highly effective with 91.3\% recall and 86.5\% precision in EoB-2 metric, a significant improvement over both the current detection algorithm that are used in commodity spreadsheet tools and state-of-the-art convolutional neural networks in computer vision.

Text-to-video models have recently undergone rapid and substantial advancements. Nevertheless, due to limitations in data and computational resources, achieving efficient generation of long videos with rich motion dynamics remains a significant challenge. To generate high-quality, dynamic, and temporally consistent long videos, this paper presents ARLON, a novel framework that boosts diffusion Transformers with autoregressive models for long video generation, by integrating the coarse spatial and long-range temporal information provided by the AR model to guide the DiT model. Specifically, ARLON incorporates several key innovations: 1) A latent Vector Quantized Variational Autoencoder (VQ-VAE) compresses the input latent space of the DiT model into compact visual tokens, bridging the AR and DiT models and balancing the learning complexity and information density; 2) An adaptive norm-based semantic injection module integrates the coarse discrete visual units from the AR model into the DiT model, ensuring effective guidance during video generation; 3) To enhance the tolerance capability of noise introduced from the AR inference, the DiT model is trained with coarser visual latent tokens incorporated with an uncertainty sampling module. Experimental results demonstrate that ARLON significantly outperforms the baseline OpenSora-V1.2 on eight out of eleven metrics selected from VBench, with notable improvements in dynamic degree and aesthetic quality, while delivering competitive results on the remaining three and simultaneously accelerating the generation process. In addition, ARLON achieves state-of-the-art performance in long video generation. Detailed analyses of the improvements in inference efficiency are presented, alongside a practical application that demonstrates the generation of long videos using progressive text prompts. See demos of ARLON at http://aka.ms/arlon.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product between a divergence function and the posterior. Current methods such as Deep Ensembles or MC dropout underperform at estimating the epistemic uncertainty, since they primarily consider the posterior when sampling models. We suggest Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models (QUAM) to better estimate the epistemic uncertainty. QUAM identifies regions where the whole product under the integral is large, not just the posterior. Consequently, QUAM has lower approximation error of the epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods. Models for which the product is large correspond to adversarial models (not adversarial examples!). Adversarial models have both a high posterior as well as a high divergence between their predictions and that of a reference model. Our experiments show that QUAM excels in capturing epistemic uncertainty for deep learning models and outperforms previous methods on challenging tasks in the vision domain.

Widely deployed large language models (LLMs) can produce convincing yet incorrect outputs, potentially misleading users who may rely on them as if they were correct. To reduce such overreliance, there have been calls for LLMs to communicate their uncertainty to end users. However, there has been little empirical work examining how users perceive and act upon LLMs' expressions of uncertainty. We explore this question through a large-scale, pre-registered, human-subject experiment (N=404) in which participants answer medical questions with or without access to responses from a fictional LLM-infused search engine. Using both behavioral and self-reported measures, we examine how different natural language expressions of uncertainty impact participants' reliance, trust, and overall task performance. We find that first-person expressions (e.g., "I'm not sure, but...") decrease participants' confidence in the system and tendency to agree with the system's answers, while increasing participants' accuracy. An exploratory analysis suggests that this increase can be attributed to reduced (but not fully eliminated) overreliance on incorrect answers. While we observe similar effects for uncertainty expressed from a general perspective (e.g., "It's not clear, but..."), these effects are weaker and not statistically significant. Our findings suggest that using natural language expressions of uncertainty may be an effective approach for reducing overreliance on LLMs, but that the precise language used matters. This highlights the importance of user testing before deploying LLMs at scale.

Although large language models (LLMs) are capable of performing various tasks, they still suffer from producing plausible but incorrect responses. To improve the reliability of LLMs, recent research has focused on uncertainty quantification to predict whether a response is correct or not. However, most uncertainty quantification methods have been evaluated on questions requiring a single clear answer, ignoring the existence of data uncertainty that arises from irreducible randomness. Instead, these methods only consider model uncertainty, which arises from a lack of knowledge. In this paper, we investigate previous uncertainty quantification methods under the presence of data uncertainty. Our contributions are two-fold: 1) proposing a new Multi-Answer Question Answering dataset, MAQA, consisting of world knowledge, mathematical reasoning, and commonsense reasoning tasks to evaluate uncertainty quantification regarding data uncertainty, and 2) assessing 5 uncertainty quantification methods of diverse white- and black-box LLMs. Our findings show that entropy and consistency-based methods estimate the model uncertainty well even under data uncertainty, while other methods for white- and black-box LLMs struggle depending on the tasks. Additionally, methods designed for white-box LLMs suffer from overconfidence in reasoning tasks compared to simple knowledge queries. We believe our observations will pave the way for future work on uncertainty quantification in realistic setting.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account for uncertainty. This review explores the evolution of uncertainty quantification techniques in AI, distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, and discusses the mathematical foundations and methods used to quantify these uncertainties. We provide an overview of advanced techniques, including probabilistic methods, ensemble learning, sampling-based approaches, and generative models, while also highlighting hybrid approaches that integrate domain-specific knowledge. Furthermore, we examine the diverse applications of UQ across various fields, emphasizing its impact on decision-making, predictive accuracy, and system robustness. The review also addresses key challenges such as scalability, efficiency, and integration with explainable AI, and outlines future directions for research in this rapidly developing area. Through this comprehensive survey, we aim to provide a deeper understanding of UQ's role in enhancing the reliability, safety, and trustworthiness of AI systems.

Despite improvements in performances on different natural language generation tasks, deep neural models are prone to hallucinating facts that are incorrect or nonexistent. Different hypotheses are proposed and examined separately for different tasks, but no systematic explanations are available across these tasks. In this study, we draw connections between hallucinations and predictive uncertainty in conditional language generation. We investigate their relationship in both image captioning and data-to-text generation and propose a simple extension to beam search to reduce hallucination. Our analysis shows that higher predictive uncertainty corresponds to a higher chance of hallucination. Epistemic uncertainty is more indicative of hallucination than aleatoric or total uncertainties. It helps to achieve better results of trading performance in standard metric for less hallucination with the proposed beam search variant.

Uncertainty quantification has received increasing attention in machine learning in the recent past. In particular, a distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has been found useful in this regard. The latter refers to the learner's (lack of) knowledge and appears to be especially difficult to measure and quantify. In this paper, we analyse a recent proposal based on the idea of a second-order learner, which yields predictions in the form of distributions over probability distributions. While standard (first-order) learners can be trained to predict accurate probabilities, namely by minimising suitable loss functions on sample data, we show that loss minimisation does not work for second-order predictors: The loss functions proposed for inducing such predictors do not incentivise the learner to represent its epistemic uncertainty in a faithful way.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often generate outputs that lack grounding in real-world facts, a phenomenon known as hallucinations. Prior research has associated hallucinations with model uncertainty, leveraging this relationship for hallucination detection and mitigation. In this paper, we challenge the underlying assumption that all hallucinations are associated with uncertainty. Using knowledge detection and uncertainty measurement methods, we demonstrate that models can hallucinate with high certainty even when they have the correct knowledge. We further show that high-certainty hallucinations are consistent across models and datasets, distinctive enough to be singled out, and challenge existing mitigation methods. Our findings reveal an overlooked aspect of hallucinations, emphasizing the need to understand their origins and improve mitigation strategies to enhance LLM safety. The code is available at https://github.com/technion-cs-nlp/Trust_me_Im_wrong .

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

We present evidence of substantial benefit from efficient exploration in gathering human feedback to improve large language models. In our experiments, an agent sequentially generates queries while fitting a reward model to the feedback received. Our best-performing agent generates queries using double Thompson sampling, with uncertainty represented by an epistemic neural network. Our results demonstrate that efficient exploration enables high levels of performance with far fewer queries. Further, both uncertainty estimation and the choice of exploration scheme play critical roles.

Although AI systems have been applied in various fields and achieved impressive performance, their safety and reliability are still a big concern. This is especially important for safety-critical tasks. One shared characteristic of these critical tasks is their risk sensitivity, where small mistakes can cause big consequences and even endanger life. There are several factors that could be guidelines for the successful deployment of AI systems in sensitive tasks: (i) failure detection and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection; (ii) overfitting identification; (iii) uncertainty quantification for predictions; (iv) robustness to data perturbations. These factors are also challenges of current AI systems, which are major blocks for building safe and reliable AI. Specifically, the current AI algorithms are unable to identify common causes for failure detection. Furthermore, additional techniques are required to quantify the quality of predictions. All these contribute to inaccurate uncertainty quantification, which lowers trust in predictions. Hence obtaining accurate model uncertainty quantification and its further improvement are challenging. To address these issues, many techniques have been proposed, such as regularization methods and learning strategies. As vision and language are the most typical data type and have many open source benchmark datasets, this thesis will focus on vision-language data processing for tasks like classification, image captioning, and vision question answering. In this thesis, we aim to build a safeguard by further developing current techniques to ensure the accurate model uncertainty for safety-critical tasks.

When deploying machine learning models in high-stakes real-world environments such as health care, it is crucial to accurately assess the uncertainty concerning a model's prediction on abnormal inputs. However, there is a scarcity of literature analyzing this problem on medical data, especially on mixed-type tabular data such as Electronic Health Records. We close this gap by presenting a series of tests including a large variety of contemporary uncertainty estimation techniques, in order to determine whether they are able to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) patients. In contrast to previous work, we design tests on realistic and clinically relevant OOD groups, and run experiments on real-world medical data. We find that almost all techniques fail to achieve convincing results, partly disagreeing with earlier findings.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential in natural language generation and instruction following, a persistent challenge lies in their susceptibility to "hallucinations", which erodes trust in their outputs. Although Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) presents a promising solution, its accurate implementation within the context of LLMs remains a significant hurdle. To address this critical roadblock, our research originates from a fundamental heuristic insight: tokens within auto-regressive LLM-generated text do not equally reflect the underlying meaning. Some tokens carry greater relevance and representativeness than others, owing to the phenomenon of "linguistic redundancy", wherein a select few keywords suffice to convey the essence of lengthy sentences. Regrettably, existing methodologies treat all tokens with equal importance when estimating uncertainty, disregarding these inherent generative inequalities. Our analysis reveals a significant issue with state-of-the-art: numerous tokens (and sentences) of limited semantic significance receive equal or even excessive weighting during uncertainty estimation. To rectify this bias, we propose to jointly Shifting Attention to more Relevant (SAR) components, at both the token- and the sentence-levels for accurate uncertainty estimation. We conduct extensive experiments involving a range of popular "off-the-shelf" LLMs, including instruction-tuned LLMs such as Vicuna, WizardLM, and LLaMA-2-chat, as well as pretrained LLMs like OPT and LLaMA, with model sizes extending up to 33B parameters. We carry out evaluation across various free-form question-answering tasks, encompassing domains such as reading comprehension, science Q&A, and medical Q&A. Our experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of SAR in addressing the challenges of uncertainty estimation within the realm of LLMs.

We investigate the problem of determining the predictive confidence (or, conversely, uncertainty) of a neural classifier through the lens of low-resource languages. By training models on sub-sampled datasets in three different languages, we assess the quality of estimates from a wide array of approaches and their dependence on the amount of available data. We find that while approaches based on pre-trained models and ensembles achieve the best results overall, the quality of uncertainty estimates can surprisingly suffer with more data. We also perform a qualitative analysis of uncertainties on sequences, discovering that a model's total uncertainty seems to be influenced to a large degree by its data uncertainty, not model uncertainty. All model implementations are open-sourced in a software package.

This paper investigates the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) in the context of understanding their own knowledge and measuring their uncertainty. We argue this is an important feature for mitigating hallucinations. Specifically, we focus on addressing known-unknown questions, characterized by high uncertainty due to the absence of definitive answers. To facilitate our study, we collect a dataset with new Known-Unknown Questions (KUQ) and propose a novel categorization scheme to elucidate the sources of uncertainty. Subsequently, we assess the LLMs' ability to differentiate between known and unknown questions and classify them accordingly. Moreover, we evaluate the quality of their answers in an Open-Ended QA setting. To quantify the uncertainty expressed in the answers, we create a semantic evaluation method that measures the model's accuracy in expressing uncertainty between known vs unknown questions.

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for creating trustworthy machine learning models. Recent years have seen a steep rise in UQ methods that can flag suspicious examples, however, it is often unclear what exactly these methods identify. In this work, we propose a framework for categorizing uncertain examples flagged by UQ methods in classification tasks. We introduce the confusion density matrix -- a kernel-based approximation of the misclassification density -- and use this to categorize suspicious examples identified by a given uncertainty method into three classes: out-of-distribution (OOD) examples, boundary (Bnd) examples, and examples in regions of high in-distribution misclassification (IDM). Through extensive experiments, we show that our framework provides a new and distinct perspective for assessing differences between uncertainty quantification methods, thereby forming a valuable assessment benchmark.

Predictions made by deep learning models are prone to data perturbations, adversarial attacks, and out-of-distribution inputs. To build a trusted AI system, it is therefore critical to accurately quantify the prediction uncertainties. While current efforts focus on improving uncertainty quantification accuracy and efficiency, there is a need to identify uncertainty sources and take actions to mitigate their effects on predictions. Therefore, we propose to develop explainable and actionable Bayesian deep learning methods to not only perform accurate uncertainty quantification but also explain the uncertainties, identify their sources, and propose strategies to mitigate the uncertainty impacts. Specifically, we introduce a gradient-based uncertainty attribution method to identify the most problematic regions of the input that contribute to the prediction uncertainty. Compared to existing methods, the proposed UA-Backprop has competitive accuracy, relaxed assumptions, and high efficiency. Moreover, we propose an uncertainty mitigation strategy that leverages the attribution results as attention to further improve the model performance. Both qualitative and quantitative evaluations are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

We show that a GPT-3 model can learn to express uncertainty about its own answers in natural language -- without use of model logits. When given a question, the model generates both an answer and a level of confidence (e.g. "90% confidence" or "high confidence"). These levels map to probabilities that are well calibrated. The model also remains moderately calibrated under distribution shift, and is sensitive to uncertainty in its own answers, rather than imitating human examples. To our knowledge, this is the first time a model has been shown to express calibrated uncertainty about its own answers in natural language. For testing calibration, we introduce the CalibratedMath suite of tasks. We compare the calibration of uncertainty expressed in words ("verbalized probability") to uncertainty extracted from model logits. Both kinds of uncertainty are capable of generalizing calibration under distribution shift. We also provide evidence that GPT-3's ability to generalize calibration depends on pre-trained latent representations that correlate with epistemic uncertainty over its answers.

Uncertainty estimation is an essential and heavily-studied component for the reliable application of semantic segmentation methods. While various studies exist claiming methodological advances on the one hand, and successful application on the other hand, the field is currently hampered by a gap between theory and practice leaving fundamental questions unanswered: Can data-related and model-related uncertainty really be separated in practice? Which components of an uncertainty method are essential for real-world performance? Which uncertainty method works well for which application? In this work, we link this research gap to a lack of systematic and comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty methods. Specifically, we identify three key pitfalls in current literature and present an evaluation framework that bridges the research gap by providing 1) a controlled environment for studying data ambiguities as well as distribution shifts, 2) systematic ablations of relevant method components, and 3) test-beds for the five predominant uncertainty applications: OoD-detection, active learning, failure detection, calibration, and ambiguity modeling. Empirical results on simulated as well as real-world data demonstrate how the proposed framework is able to answer the predominant questions in the field revealing for instance that 1) separation of uncertainty types works on simulated data but does not necessarily translate to real-world data, 2) aggregation of scores is a crucial but currently neglected component of uncertainty methods, 3) While ensembles are performing most robustly across the different downstream tasks and settings, test-time augmentation often constitutes a light-weight alternative. Code is at: https://github.com/IML-DKFZ/values

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

This paper presents a case study on the design, administration, post-processing, and evaluation of surveys on large language models (LLMs). It comprises two components: (1) A statistical method for eliciting beliefs encoded in LLMs. We introduce statistical measures and evaluation metrics that quantify the probability of an LLM "making a choice", the associated uncertainty, and the consistency of that choice. (2) We apply this method to study what moral beliefs are encoded in different LLMs, especially in ambiguous cases where the right choice is not obvious. We design a large-scale survey comprising 680 high-ambiguity moral scenarios (e.g., "Should I tell a white lie?") and 687 low-ambiguity moral scenarios (e.g., "Should I stop for a pedestrian on the road?"). Each scenario includes a description, two possible actions, and auxiliary labels indicating violated rules (e.g., "do not kill"). We administer the survey to 28 open- and closed-source LLMs. We find that (a) in unambiguous scenarios, most models "choose" actions that align with commonsense. In ambiguous cases, most models express uncertainty. (b) Some models are uncertain about choosing the commonsense action because their responses are sensitive to the question-wording. (c) Some models reflect clear preferences in ambiguous scenarios. Specifically, closed-source models tend to agree with each other.

In real-world scenarios, typical visual recognition systems could fail under two major causes, i.e., the misclassification between known classes and the excusable misbehavior on unknown-class images. To tackle these deficiencies, flexible visual recognition should dynamically predict multiple classes when they are unconfident between choices and reject making predictions when the input is entirely out of the training distribution. Two challenges emerge along with this novel task. First, prediction uncertainty should be separately quantified as confusion depicting inter-class uncertainties and ignorance identifying out-of-distribution samples. Second, both confusion and ignorance should be comparable between samples to enable effective decision-making. In this paper, we propose to model these two sources of uncertainty explicitly with the theory of Subjective Logic. Regarding recognition as an evidence-collecting process, confusion is then defined as conflicting evidence, while ignorance is the absence of evidence. By predicting Dirichlet concentration parameters for singletons, comprehensive subjective opinions, including confusion and ignorance, could be achieved via further evidence combinations. Through a series of experiments on synthetic data analysis, visual recognition, and open-set detection, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods in quantifying two sources of uncertainties and dealing with flexible recognition.

A Neural Process (NP) estimates a stochastic process implicitly defined with neural networks given a stream of data, rather than pre-specifying priors already known, such as Gaussian processes. An ideal NP would learn everything from data without any inductive biases, but in practice, we often restrict the class of stochastic processes for the ease of estimation. One such restriction is the use of a finite-dimensional latent variable accounting for the uncertainty in the functions drawn from NPs. Some recent works show that this can be improved with more "data-driven" source of uncertainty such as bootstrapping. In this work, we take a different approach based on the martingale posterior, a recently developed alternative to Bayesian inference. For the martingale posterior, instead of specifying prior-likelihood pairs, a predictive distribution for future data is specified. Under specific conditions on the predictive distribution, it can be shown that the uncertainty in the generated future data actually corresponds to the uncertainty of the implicitly defined Bayesian posteriors. Based on this result, instead of assuming any form of the latent variables, we equip a NP with a predictive distribution implicitly defined with neural networks and use the corresponding martingale posteriors as the source of uncertainty. The resulting model, which we name as Martingale Posterior Neural Process (MPNP), is demonstrated to outperform baselines on various tasks.

Current question-answering benchmarks predominantly focus on accuracy in realizable prediction tasks. Conditioned on a question and answer-key, does the most likely token match the ground truth? Such benchmarks necessarily fail to evaluate LLMs' ability to quantify ground-truth outcome uncertainty. In this work, we focus on the use of LLMs as risk scores for unrealizable prediction tasks. We introduce folktexts, a software package to systematically generate risk scores using LLMs, and evaluate them against US Census data products. A flexible API enables the use of different prompting schemes, local or web-hosted models, and diverse census columns that can be used to compose custom prediction tasks. We evaluate 17 recent LLMs across five proposed benchmark tasks. We find that zero-shot risk scores produced by multiple-choice question-answering have high predictive signal but are widely miscalibrated. Base models consistently overestimate outcome uncertainty, while instruction-tuned models underestimate uncertainty and produce over-confident risk scores. In fact, instruction-tuning polarizes answer distribution regardless of true underlying data uncertainty. This reveals a general inability of instruction-tuned LLMs to express data uncertainty using multiple-choice answers. A separate experiment using verbalized chat-style risk queries yields substantially improved calibration across instruction-tuned models. These differences in ability to quantify data uncertainty cannot be revealed in realizable settings, and highlight a blind-spot in the current evaluation ecosystem that folktexts covers.

Interpretable models are designed to make decisions in a human-interpretable manner. Representatively, Concept Bottleneck Models (CBM) follow a two-step process of concept prediction and class prediction based on the predicted concepts. CBM provides explanations with high-level concepts derived from concept predictions; thus, reliable concept predictions are important for trustworthiness. In this study, we address the ambiguity issue that can harm reliability. While the existence of a concept can often be ambiguous in the data, CBM predicts concepts deterministically without considering this ambiguity. To provide a reliable interpretation against this ambiguity, we propose Probabilistic Concept Bottleneck Models (ProbCBM). By leveraging probabilistic concept embeddings, ProbCBM models uncertainty in concept prediction and provides explanations based on the concept and its corresponding uncertainty. This uncertainty enhances the reliability of the explanations. Furthermore, as class uncertainty is derived from concept uncertainty in ProbCBM, we can explain class uncertainty by means of concept uncertainty. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ejkim47/prob-cbm.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks but still face challenges such as hallucinations. One potential reason for hallucinations is the lack of relevant knowledge or context. Thus, a promising solution to mitigate this issue involves instructing LLMs to respond with "I do not know" when a question falls outside their knowledge domain or the provided context. However, in this work, we observed that LLMs struggle to admit their lack of knowledge, primarily due to existing instruction datasets designed to encourage specific answers. To improve large language models' capability to recognize the boundaries of their knowledge, we propose a novel approach called uncertainty-sensitive tuning. This method involves two-stage training designed for uncertainty recognition and prompt-sensitive activation. In the first stage, we guide the LLM to reject unknown questions. In the second stage, we recover the decreased performance in QA tasks by incorporating designed causal instructions. By leveraging this method, we aim to enhance the model's ability to identify areas of uncertainty. The experimental results demonstrate that our proposed uncertainty-sensitive tuning method significantly improves the performance of the Llama2-chat-7B model. Specifically, it achieves a substantial 34.7% improvement in handling questions involving knowledge gaps compared to the original model. Moreover, our approach outperforms GPT-4, exhibiting a 9.4% increase in overall performance. We open-source the model and code on GitHub.

Bearing in mind the limited parametric knowledge of Large Language Models (LLMs), retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) which supplies them with the relevant external knowledge has served as an approach to mitigate the issue of hallucinations to a certain extent. However, uniformly retrieving supporting context makes response generation source-inefficient, as triggering the retriever is not always necessary, or even inaccurate, when a model gets distracted by noisy retrieved content and produces an unhelpful answer. Motivated by these issues, we introduce Semantic Uncertainty Guided Adaptive Retrieval (SUGAR), where we leverage context-based entropy to actively decide whether to retrieve and to further determine between single-step and multi-step retrieval. Our empirical results show that selective retrieval guided by semantic uncertainty estimation improves the performance across diverse question answering tasks, as well as achieves a more efficient inference.

It is well known that accurate probabilistic predictors can be trained through empirical risk minimisation with proper scoring rules as loss functions. While such learners capture so-called aleatoric uncertainty of predictions, various machine learning methods have recently been developed with the goal to let the learner also represent its epistemic uncertainty, i.e., the uncertainty caused by a lack of knowledge and data. An emerging branch of the literature proposes the use of a second-order learner that provides predictions in terms of distributions on probability distributions. However, recent work has revealed serious theoretical shortcomings for second-order predictors based on loss minimisation. In this paper, we generalise these findings and prove a more fundamental result: There seems to be no loss function that provides an incentive for a second-order learner to faithfully represent its epistemic uncertainty in the same manner as proper scoring rules do for standard (first-order) learners. As a main mathematical tool to prove this result, we introduce the generalised notion of second-order scoring rules.

The Kov\'ats Retention index (RI) is a quantity measured using gas chromatography and commonly used in the identification of chemical structures. Creating libraries of observed RI values is a laborious task, so we explore the use of a deep neural network for predicting RI values from structure for standard semipolar columns. This network generated predictions with a mean absolute error of 15.1 and, in a quantification of the tail of the error distribution, a 95th percentile absolute error of 46.5. Because of the Artificial Intelligence Retention Indices (AIRI) network's accuracy, it was used to predict RI values for the NIST EI-MS spectral libraries. These RI values are used to improve chemical identification methods and the quality of the library. Estimating uncertainty is an important practical need when using prediction models. To quantify the uncertainty of our network for each individual prediction, we used the outputs of an ensemble of 8 networks to calculate a predicted standard deviation for each RI value prediction. This predicted standard deviation was corrected to follow the error between observed and predicted RI values. The Z scores using these predicted standard deviations had a standard deviation of 1.52 and a 95th percentile absolute Z score corresponding to a mean RI value of 42.6.

Unitary quantum theory, having no Born Rule, is non-probabilistic. Hence the notorious problem of reconciling it with the unpredictability and appearance of stochasticity in quantum measurements. Generalising and improving upon the so-called 'decision-theoretic approach' (Deutsch, 1999; Wallace, 2003, 2007, 2012), I shall recast that problem in the recently proposed constructor theory of information - where quantum theory is represented as one of a class of superinformation theories, which are local, non-probabilistic theories conforming to certain constructor-theoretic conditions. I prove that the unpredictability of measurement outcomes (to which I give an exact meaning via constructor theory), necessarily arises in superinformation theories. Then I explain how the appearance of stochasticity in (finitely many) repeated measurements can arise under superinformation theories. And I establish sufficient conditions for a superinformation theory to inform decisions (made under it) as if it were probabilistic, via a Deutsch-Wallace-type argument - thus defining a class of decision-supporting superinformation theories. This broadens the domain of applicability of that argument to cover constructor-theory compliant theories. In addition, in this version some of the argument's assumptions, previously construed as merely decision-theoretic, follow from physical properties expressed by constructor-theoretic principles.

Multi-class classification methods that produce sets of probabilistic classifiers, such as ensemble learning methods, are able to model aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatoric uncertainty is then typically quantified via the Bayes error, and epistemic uncertainty via the size of the set. In this paper, we extend the notion of calibration, which is commonly used to evaluate the validity of the aleatoric uncertainty representation of a single probabilistic classifier, to assess the validity of an epistemic uncertainty representation obtained by sets of probabilistic classifiers. Broadly speaking, we call a set of probabilistic classifiers calibrated if one can find a calibrated convex combination of these classifiers. To evaluate this notion of calibration, we propose a novel nonparametric calibration test that generalizes an existing test for single probabilistic classifiers to the case of sets of probabilistic classifiers. Making use of this test, we empirically show that ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.

Misinformation - false or misleading information - is considered a significant societal concern due to its associated "misinformation effects," such as political polarization, erosion of trust in institutions, problematic behavior, and public health challenges. However, the prevailing concept is misaligned with what is studied. While misinformation focuses on instances of information about factual matters, the broad spectrum of effects often manifests at a societal level and is shaped by a wide range of interdependent factors such as identity, values, opinions, epistemologies, and disagreements. Unsurprisingly, misinformation effects can occur without the prevalence of misinformation, and misinformation does not necessarily increase the effects studied. Here, we propose using disagreement - conflicting attitudes and beliefs between individuals and communities - as a way to study misinformation effects because it addresses the identified conceptual limitations of misinformation. Furthermore, unlike misinformation, disagreement does not require researchers to determine whether a given information is false or misleading. Thus, it can be studied and, more importantly, measured without the need to make a normative judgment about a given information, even when the specific topic is entirely removed, as we show in a longitudinal disagreement measurement. We demonstrate that disagreement, as a holistic concept, provides better explanations for the occurrence of misinformation effects, enhances precision in developing appropriate interventions, and offers a promising approach for evaluating them through quantification. Finally, we show how disagreement addresses current misinformation research questions and conclude with recommendations for research practice.

The human intrinsic desire to pursue knowledge, also known as curiosity, is considered essential in the process of skill acquisition. With the aid of artificial curiosity, we could equip current techniques for control, such as Reinforcement Learning, with more natural exploration capabilities. A promising approach in this respect has consisted of using Bayesian surprise on model parameters, i.e. a metric for the difference between prior and posterior beliefs, to favour exploration. In this contribution, we propose to apply Bayesian surprise in a latent space representing the agent's current understanding of the dynamics of the system, drastically reducing the computational costs. We extensively evaluate our method by measuring the agent's performance in terms of environment exploration, for continuous tasks, and looking at the game scores achieved, for video games. Our model is computationally cheap and compares positively with current state-of-the-art methods on several problems. We also investigate the effects caused by stochasticity in the environment, which is often a failure case for curiosity-driven agents. In this regime, the results suggest that our approach is resilient to stochastic transitions.

There is a strong link between the general concept of intelligence and the ability to collect and use information. The theory of Bayes-adaptive exploration offers an attractive optimality framework for training machines to perform complex information gathering tasks. However, the computational complexity of the resulting optimal control problem has limited the diffusion of the theory to mainstream deep AI research. In this paper we exploit the inherent mathematical structure of Bayes-adaptive problems in order to dramatically simplify the problem by making the reward structure denser while simultaneously decoupling the learning of exploitation and exploration policies. The key to this simplification comes from the novel concept of cross-value (i.e. the value of being in an environment while acting optimally according to another), which we use to quantify the value of currently available information. This results in a new denser reward structure that "cashes in" all future rewards that can be predicted from the current information state. In a set of experiments we show that the approach makes it possible to learn challenging information gathering tasks without the use of shaping and heuristic bonuses in situations where the standard RL algorithms fail.

We introduce a method to measure uncertainty in large language models. For tasks like question answering, it is essential to know when we can trust the natural language outputs of foundation models. We show that measuring uncertainty in natural language is challenging because of "semantic equivalence" -- different sentences can mean the same thing. To overcome these challenges we introduce semantic entropy -- an entropy which incorporates linguistic invariances created by shared meanings. Our method is unsupervised, uses only a single model, and requires no modifications to off-the-shelf language models. In comprehensive ablation studies we show that the semantic entropy is more predictive of model accuracy on question answering data sets than comparable baselines.

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to provide uncertainty quantification in language models for the specific task of multiple-choice question-answering. We find that the uncertainty estimates from conformal prediction are tightly correlated with prediction accuracy. This observation can be useful for downstream applications such as selective classification and filtering out low-quality predictions. We also investigate the exchangeability assumption required by conformal prediction to out-of-subject questions, which may be a more realistic scenario for many practical applications. Our work contributes towards more trustworthy and reliable usage of large language models in safety-critical situations, where robust guarantees of error rate are required.

Active learning (AL) in open set scenarios presents a novel challenge of identifying the most valuable examples in an unlabeled data pool that comprises data from both known and unknown classes. Traditional methods prioritize selecting informative examples with low confidence, with the risk of mistakenly selecting unknown-class examples with similarly low confidence. Recent methods favor the most probable known-class examples, with the risk of picking simple already mastered examples. In this paper, we attempt to query examples that are both likely from known classes and highly informative, and propose a Bidirectional Uncertainty-based Active Learning (BUAL) framework. Specifically, we achieve this by first pushing the unknown class examples toward regions with high-confidence predictions, i.e., the proposed Random Label Negative Learning method. Then, we propose a Bidirectional Uncertainty sampling strategy by jointly estimating uncertainty posed by both positive and negative learning to perform consistent and stable sampling. BUAL successfully extends existing uncertainty-based AL methods to complex open-set scenarios. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets with varying openness demonstrate that BUAL achieves state-of-the-art performance. The code is available at https://github.com/chenchenzong/BUAL.

Offline reinforcement learning enables agents to leverage large pre-collected datasets of environment transitions to learn control policies, circumventing the need for potentially expensive or unsafe online data collection. Significant progress has been made recently in offline model-based reinforcement learning, approaches which leverage a learned dynamics model. This typically involves constructing a probabilistic model, and using the model uncertainty to penalize rewards where there is insufficient data, solving for a pessimistic MDP that lower bounds the true MDP. Existing methods, however, exhibit a breakdown between theory and practice, whereby pessimistic return ought to be bounded by the total variation distance of the model from the true dynamics, but is instead implemented through a penalty based on estimated model uncertainty. This has spawned a variety of uncertainty heuristics, with little to no comparison between differing approaches. In this paper, we compare these heuristics, and design novel protocols to investigate their interaction with other hyperparameters, such as the number of models, or imaginary rollout horizon. Using these insights, we show that selecting these key hyperparameters using Bayesian Optimization produces superior configurations that are vastly different to those currently used in existing hand-tuned state-of-the-art methods, and result in drastically stronger performance.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing definition for calibration of a regression uncertainty [Kuleshov et al. 2018] has severe limitations in distinguishing informative from non-informative uncertainty predictions. We propose a new definition that escapes this caveat and an evaluation method using a simple histogram-based approach. Our method clusters examples with similar uncertainty prediction and compares the prediction with the empirical uncertainty on these examples. We also propose a simple, scaling-based calibration method that preforms as well as much more complex ones. We show results on both a synthetic, controlled problem and on the object detection bounding-box regression task using the COCO and KITTI datasets.

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms aim to balance exploiting the current best strategy with exploring new options that could lead to higher rewards. Most common RL algorithms use undirected exploration, i.e., select random sequences of actions. Exploration can also be directed using intrinsic rewards, such as curiosity or model epistemic uncertainty. However, effectively balancing task and intrinsic rewards is challenging and often task-dependent. In this work, we introduce a framework, MaxInfoRL, for balancing intrinsic and extrinsic exploration. MaxInfoRL steers exploration towards informative transitions, by maximizing intrinsic rewards such as the information gain about the underlying task. When combined with Boltzmann exploration, this approach naturally trades off maximization of the value function with that of the entropy over states, rewards, and actions. We show that our approach achieves sublinear regret in the simplified setting of multi-armed bandits. We then apply this general formulation to a variety of off-policy model-free RL methods for continuous state-action spaces, yielding novel algorithms that achieve superior performance across hard exploration problems and complex scenarios such as visual control tasks.

As a crucial extension of entity alignment (EA), multi-modal entity alignment (MMEA) aims to identify identical entities across disparate knowledge graphs (KGs) by exploiting associated visual information. However, existing MMEA approaches primarily concentrate on the fusion paradigm of multi-modal entity features, while neglecting the challenges presented by the pervasive phenomenon of missing and intrinsic ambiguity of visual images. In this paper, we present a further analysis of visual modality incompleteness, benchmarking latest MMEA models on our proposed dataset MMEA-UMVM, where the types of alignment KGs covering bilingual and monolingual, with standard (non-iterative) and iterative training paradigms to evaluate the model performance. Our research indicates that, in the face of modality incompleteness, models succumb to overfitting the modality noise, and exhibit performance oscillations or declines at high rates of missing modality. This proves that the inclusion of additional multi-modal data can sometimes adversely affect EA. To address these challenges, we introduce UMAEA , a robust multi-modal entity alignment approach designed to tackle uncertainly missing and ambiguous visual modalities. It consistently achieves SOTA performance across all 97 benchmark splits, significantly surpassing existing baselines with limited parameters and time consumption, while effectively alleviating the identified limitations of other models. Our code and benchmark data are available at https://github.com/zjukg/UMAEA.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

We present a theory of information expressed solely in terms of which transformations of physical systems are possible and which are impossible - i.e. in constructor-theoretic terms. Although it includes conjectured laws of physics that are directly about information, independently of the details of particular physical instantiations, it does not regard information as an a priori mathematical or logical concept, but as something whose nature and properties are determined by the laws of physics alone. It does not suffer from the circularity at the foundations of existing information theory (namely that information and distinguishability are each defined in terms of the other). It explains the relationship between classical and quantum information, and reveals the single, constructor-theoretic property underlying the most distinctive phenomena associated with the latter, including the lack of in-principle distinguishability of some states, the impossibility of cloning, the existence of pairs of variables that cannot simultaneously have sharp values, the fact that measurement processes can be both deterministic and unpredictable, the irreducible perturbation caused by measurement, and entanglement (locally inaccessible information).

Quantitative tools are increasingly appealing for decision support in healthcare, driven by the growing capabilities of advanced AI systems. However, understanding the predictive uncertainties surrounding a tool's output is crucial for decision-makers to ensure reliable and transparent decisions. In this paper, we present a case study on pulmonary nodule detection for lung cancer screening, enhancing an advanced detection model with an uncertainty quantification technique called conformal risk control (CRC). We demonstrate that prediction sets with conformal guarantees are attractive measures of predictive uncertainty in the safety-critical healthcare domain, allowing end-users to achieve arbitrary validity by trading off false positives and providing formal statistical guarantees on model performance. Among ground-truth nodules annotated by at least three radiologists, our model achieves a sensitivity that is competitive with that generally achieved by individual radiologists, with a slight increase in false positives. Furthermore, we illustrate the risks of using off-the-shelve prediction models when faced with ontological uncertainty, such as when radiologists disagree on what constitutes the ground truth on pulmonary nodules.

Large language models (LLMs) specializing in natural language generation (NLG) have recently started exhibiting promising capabilities across a variety of domains. However, gauging the trustworthiness of responses generated by LLMs remains an open challenge, with limited research on uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NLG. Furthermore, existing literature typically assumes white-box access to language models, which is becoming unrealistic either due to the closed-source nature of the latest LLMs or computational constraints. In this work, we investigate UQ in NLG for black-box LLMs. We first differentiate uncertainty vs confidence: the former refers to the "dispersion" of the potential predictions for a fixed input, and the latter refers to the confidence on a particular prediction/generation. We then propose and compare several confidence/uncertainty metrics, applying them to selective NLG where unreliable results could either be ignored or yielded for further assessment. Experiments were carried out with several popular LLMs on question-answering datasets (for evaluation purposes). Results reveal that a simple metric for the semantic dispersion can be a reliable predictor of the quality of LLM responses, providing valuable insights for practitioners on uncertainty management when adopting LLMs. The code to replicate our experiments is available at https://github.com/zlin7/UQ-NLG.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a perspective approach to detecting Large Language Model (LLM) hallucinations and low quality output. In this work, we address one of the challenges of UQ in generation tasks that arises from the conditional dependency between the generation steps of an LLM. We propose to learn this dependency from data. We train a regression model, which target variable is the gap between the conditional and the unconditional generation confidence. During LLM inference, we use this learned conditional dependency model to modulate the uncertainty of the current generation step based on the uncertainty of the previous step. Our experimental evaluation on nine datasets and three LLMs shows that the proposed method is highly effective for uncertainty quantification, achieving substantial improvements over rivaling approaches.

The prevalence and importance of algorithmic two-sided marketplaces has drawn attention to the issue of fairness in such settings. Algorithmic decisions are used in assigning students to schools, users to advertisers, and applicants to job interviews. These decisions should heed the preferences of individuals, and simultaneously be fair with respect to their merits (synonymous with fit, future performance, or need). Merits conditioned on observable features are always uncertain, a fact that is exacerbated by the widespread use of machine learning algorithms to infer merit from the observables. As our key contribution, we carefully axiomatize a notion of individual fairness in the two-sided marketplace setting which respects the uncertainty in the merits; indeed, it simultaneously recognizes uncertainty as the primary potential cause of unfairness and an approach to address it. We design a linear programming framework to find fair utility-maximizing distributions over allocations, and we show that the linear program is robust to perturbations in the estimated parameters of the uncertain merit distributions, a key property in combining the approach with machine learning techniques.

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such as Allee population sizes. Before a collapse, we do not know where the tipping points lie, if they exist at all. Hence, we know neither a complete model of the system dynamics nor do we have access to data in some large region of state-space where such a tipping point might exist. We illustrate how a Bayesian Non-Parametric (BNP) approach using a Gaussian Process (GP) prior provides a flexible representation of this inherent uncertainty. We embed GPs in a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) framework in order to make robust management predictions with both model uncertainty and limited data. We use simulations to evaluate this approach as compared with the standard approach of using model selection to choose from a set of candidate models. We find that model selection erroneously favors models without tipping points -- leading to harvest policies that guarantee extinction. The GPDP performs nearly as well as the true model and significantly outperforms standard approaches. We illustrate this using examples of simulated single-species dynamics, where the standard model selection approach should be most effective, and find that it still fails to account for uncertainty appropriately and leads to population crashes, while management based on the GPDP does not, since it does not underestimate the uncertainty outside of the observed data.

Retrieval augmented generation (RAG) is often used to fix hallucinations and provide up-to-date knowledge for large language models (LLMs). However, in cases when the LLM alone incorrectly answers a question, does providing the correct retrieved content always fix the error? Conversely, in cases where the retrieved content is incorrect, does the LLM know to ignore the wrong information, or does it recapitulate the error? To answer these questions, we systematically analyze the tug-of-war between a LLM's internal knowledge (i.e. its prior) and the retrieved information in settings when they disagree. We test GPT-4 and other LLMs on question-answering abilities across datasets with and without reference documents. As expected, providing the correct retrieved information fixes most model mistakes (94% accuracy). However, when the reference document is perturbed with increasing levels of wrong values, the LLM is more likely to recite the incorrect, modified information when its internal prior is weaker but is more resistant when its prior is stronger. Similarly, we also find that the more the modified information deviates from the model's prior, the less likely the model is to prefer it. These results highlight an underlying tension between a model's prior knowledge and the information presented in reference documents.

The leading AI companies are increasingly focused on building generalist AI agents -- systems that can autonomously plan, act, and pursue goals across almost all tasks that humans can perform. Despite how useful these systems might be, unchecked AI agency poses significant risks to public safety and security, ranging from misuse by malicious actors to a potentially irreversible loss of human control. We discuss how these risks arise from current AI training methods. Indeed, various scenarios and experiments have demonstrated the possibility of AI agents engaging in deception or pursuing goals that were not specified by human operators and that conflict with human interests, such as self-preservation. Following the precautionary principle, we see a strong need for safer, yet still useful, alternatives to the current agency-driven trajectory. Accordingly, we propose as a core building block for further advances the development of a non-agentic AI system that is trustworthy and safe by design, which we call Scientist AI. This system is designed to explain the world from observations, as opposed to taking actions in it to imitate or please humans. It comprises a world model that generates theories to explain data and a question-answering inference machine. Both components operate with an explicit notion of uncertainty to mitigate the risks of overconfident predictions. In light of these considerations, a Scientist AI could be used to assist human researchers in accelerating scientific progress, including in AI safety. In particular, our system can be employed as a guardrail against AI agents that might be created despite the risks involved. Ultimately, focusing on non-agentic AI may enable the benefits of AI innovation while avoiding the risks associated with the current trajectory. We hope these arguments will motivate researchers, developers, and policymakers to favor this safer path.

This paper claims that machine learning (ML) largely overlooks an important facet of general intelligence: robustness to a qualitatively unknown future in an open world. Such robustness relates to Knightian uncertainty (KU) in economics, i.e. uncertainty that cannot be quantified, which is excluded from consideration in ML's key formalisms. This paper aims to identify this blind spot, argue its importance, and catalyze research into addressing it, which we believe is necessary to create truly robust open-world AI. To help illuminate the blind spot, we contrast one area of ML, reinforcement learning (RL), with the process of biological evolution. Despite staggering ongoing progress, RL still struggles in open-world situations, often failing under unforeseen situations. For example, the idea of zero-shot transferring a self-driving car policy trained only in the US to the UK currently seems exceedingly ambitious. In dramatic contrast, biological evolution routinely produces agents that thrive within an open world, sometimes even to situations that are remarkably out-of-distribution (e.g. invasive species; or humans, who do undertake such zero-shot international driving). Interestingly, evolution achieves such robustness without explicit theory, formalisms, or mathematical gradients. We explore the assumptions underlying RL's typical formalisms, showing how they limit RL's engagement with the unknown unknowns characteristic of an ever-changing complex world. Further, we identify mechanisms through which evolutionary processes foster robustness to novel and unpredictable challenges, and discuss potential pathways to algorithmically embody them. The conclusion is that the intriguing remaining fragility of ML may result from blind spots in its formalisms, and that significant gains may result from direct confrontation with the challenge of KU.

Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes unfeasible. In this work, we use non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values to provide explainable uncertainty estimation as a technique that aims to monitor the deterioration of machine learning models in deployment environments, as well as determine the source of model deterioration when target labels are not available. Classical methods are purely aimed at detecting distribution shift, which can lead to false positives in the sense that the model has not deteriorated despite a shift in the data distribution. To estimate model uncertainty we construct prediction intervals using a novel bootstrap method, which improves upon the work of Kumar & Srivastava (2012). We show that both our model deterioration detection system as well as our uncertainty estimation method achieve better performance than the current state-of-the-art. Finally, we use explainable AI techniques to gain an understanding of the drivers of model deterioration. We release an open source Python package, doubt, which implements our proposed methods, as well as the code used to reproduce our experiments.

Question Answering on Electronic Health Records (EHR-QA) has a significant impact on the healthcare domain, and it is being actively studied. Previous research on structured EHR-QA focuses on converting natural language queries into query language such as SQL or SPARQL (NLQ2Query), so the problem scope is limited to pre-defined data types by the specific query language. In order to expand the EHR-QA task beyond this limitation to handle multi-modal medical data and solve complex inference in the future, more primitive systemic language is needed. In this paper, we design the program-based model (NLQ2Program) for EHR-QA as the first step towards the future direction. We tackle MIMICSPARQL*, the graph-based EHR-QA dataset, via a program-based approach in a semi-supervised manner in order to overcome the absence of gold programs. Without the gold program, our proposed model shows comparable performance to the previous state-of-the-art model, which is an NLQ2Query model (0.9% gain). In addition, for a reliable EHR-QA model, we apply the uncertainty decomposition method to measure the ambiguity in the input question. We empirically confirmed data uncertainty is most indicative of the ambiguity in the input question.

Retrieval-augmented language models are being increasingly tasked with subjective, contentious, and conflicting queries such as "is aspartame linked to cancer". To resolve these ambiguous queries, one must search through a large range of websites and consider "which, if any, of this evidence do I find convincing?". In this work, we study how LLMs answer this question. In particular, we construct ConflictingQA, a dataset that pairs controversial queries with a series of real-world evidence documents that contain different facts (e.g., quantitative results), argument styles (e.g., appeals to authority), and answers (Yes or No). We use this dataset to perform sensitivity and counterfactual analyses to explore which text features most affect LLM predictions. Overall, we find that current models rely heavily on the relevance of a website to the query, while largely ignoring stylistic features that humans find important such as whether a text contains scientific references or is written with a neutral tone. Taken together, these results highlight the importance of RAG corpus quality (e.g., the need to filter misinformation), and possibly even a shift in how LLMs are trained to better align with human judgements.

We introduce BSDetector, a method for detecting bad and speculative answers from a pretrained Large Language Model by estimating a numeric confidence score for any output it generated. Our uncertainty quantification technique works for any LLM accessible only via a black-box API, whose training data remains unknown. By expending a bit of extra computation, users of any LLM API can now get the same response as they would ordinarily, as well as a confidence estimate that cautions when not to trust this response. Experiments on both closed and open-form Question-Answer benchmarks reveal that BSDetector more accurately identifies incorrect LLM responses than alternative uncertainty estimation procedures (for both GPT-3 and ChatGPT). By sampling multiple responses from the LLM and considering the one with the highest confidence score, we can additionally obtain more accurate responses from the same LLM, without any extra training steps. In applications involving automated evaluation with LLMs, accounting for our confidence scores leads to more reliable evaluation in both human-in-the-loop and fully-automated settings (across both GPT 3.5 and 4).

A fundamental question in adversarial machine learning is whether a robust classifier exists for a given task. A line of research has made some progress towards this goal by studying the concentration of measure, but we argue standard concentration fails to fully characterize the intrinsic robustness of a classification problem since it ignores data labels which are essential to any classification task. Building on a novel definition of label uncertainty, we empirically demonstrate that error regions induced by state-of-the-art models tend to have much higher label uncertainty than randomly-selected subsets. This observation motivates us to adapt a concentration estimation algorithm to account for label uncertainty, resulting in more accurate intrinsic robustness measures for benchmark image classification problems.

This paper introduces Bayesian uncertainty modeling using Stochastic Weight Averaging-Gaussian (SWAG) in Natural Language Understanding (NLU) tasks. We apply the approach to standard tasks in natural language inference (NLI) and demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in terms of prediction accuracy and correlation with human annotation disagreements. We argue that the uncertainty representations in SWAG better reflect subjective interpretation and the natural variation that is also present in human language understanding. The results reveal the importance of uncertainty modeling, an often neglected aspect of neural language modeling, in NLU tasks.

As the probability (and thus perplexity) of a text is calculated based on the product of the probabilities of individual tokens, it may happen that one unlikely token significantly reduces the probability (i.e., increase the perplexity) of some otherwise highly probable input, while potentially representing a simple typographical error. Also, given that perplexity is a scalar value that refers to the entire input, information about the probability distribution within it is lost in the calculation (a relatively good text that has one unlikely token and another text in which each token is equally likely they can have the same perplexity value), especially for longer texts. As an alternative to scalar perplexity this research proposes a simple algorithm used to calculate vector values based on n-gram perplexities within the input. Such representations consider the previously mentioned aspects, and instead of a unique value, the relative perplexity of each text token is calculated, and these values are combined into a single vector representing the input.

This research introduces a novel evaluation framework designed to assess large language models' (LLMs) ability to acknowledge uncertainty on 675 fundamentally unsolvable problems. Using a curated dataset of graduate-level grand challenge questions with intentionally unknowable answers, we evaluated twelve state-of-the-art LLMs, including both open and closed-source models, on their propensity to admit ignorance rather than generate plausible but incorrect responses. The best models scored in 62-68% accuracy ranges for admitting the problem solution was unknown in fields ranging from biology to philosophy and mathematics. We observed an inverse relationship between problem difficulty and model accuracy, with GPT-4 demonstrating higher rates of uncertainty acknowledgment on more challenging problems (35.8%) compared to simpler ones (20.0%). This pattern indicates that models may be more prone to generate speculative answers when problems appear more tractable. The study also revealed significant variations across problem categories, with models showing difficulty in acknowledging uncertainty in invention and NP-hard problems while performing relatively better on philosophical and psychological challenges. These results contribute to the growing body of research on artificial general intelligence (AGI) assessment by highlighting the importance of uncertainty recognition as a critical component of future machine intelligence evaluation. This impossibility test thus extends previous theoretical frameworks for universal intelligence testing by providing empirical evidence of current limitations in LLMs' ability to recognize their own knowledge boundaries, suggesting new directions for improving model training architectures and evaluation approaches.

This paper introduces Self-aware Knowledge Retrieval (SeaKR), a novel adaptive RAG model that extracts self-aware uncertainty of LLMs from their internal states. SeaKR activates retrieval when the LLMs present high self-aware uncertainty for generation. To effectively integrate retrieved knowledge snippets, SeaKR re-ranks them based on LLM's self-aware uncertainty to preserve the snippet that reduces their uncertainty to the utmost. To facilitate solving complex tasks that require multiple retrievals, SeaKR utilizes their self-aware uncertainty to choose among different reasoning strategies. Our experiments on both complex and simple Question Answering datasets show that SeaKR outperforms existing adaptive RAG methods. We release our code at https://github.com/THU-KEG/SeaKR.

Domain generalization (DG) aims to tackle the distribution shift between training domains and unknown target domains. Generating new domains is one of the most effective approaches, yet its performance gain depends on the distribution discrepancy between the generated and target domains. Distributionally robust optimization is promising to tackle distribution discrepancy by exploring domains in an uncertainty set. However, the uncertainty set may be overwhelmingly large, leading to low-confidence prediction in DG. It is because a large uncertainty set could introduce domains containing semantically different factors from training domains. To address this issue, we propose to perform a moderately distributional exploration (MODE) for domain generalization. Specifically, MODE performs distribution exploration in an uncertainty subset that shares the same semantic factors with the training domains. We show that MODE can endow models with provable generalization performance on unknown target domains. The experimental results show that MODE achieves competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

Ecological management and decision-making typically focus on uncertainty about the future, but surprisingly little is known about how to account for uncertainty of the present: that is, the realities of having only partial or imperfect measurements. Our primary paradigms for handling decisions under uncertainty -- the precautionary principle and optimal control -- have so far given contradictory results. This paradox is best illustrated in the example of fisheries management, where many ideas that guide thinking about ecological decision making were first developed. We find that simplistic optimal control approaches have repeatedly concluded that a manager should increase catch quotas when faced with greater uncertainty about the fish biomass. Current best practices take a more precautionary approach, decreasing catch quotas by a fixed amount to account for uncertainty. Using comparisons to both simulated and historical catch data, we find that neither approach is sufficient to avoid stock collapses under moderate observational uncertainty. Using partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) methods, we demonstrate how this paradox arises from flaws in the standard theory, which contributes to over-exploitation of fisheries and increased probability of economic and ecological collapse. In contrast, we find POMDP-based management avoids such over-exploitation while also generating higher economic value. These results have significant implications for how we handle uncertainty in both fisheries and ecological management more generally.

Effective interlocutors account for the uncertain goals, beliefs, and emotions of others. But even the best human conversationalist cannot perfectly anticipate the trajectory of a dialogue. How well can language models represent inherent uncertainty in conversations? We propose FortUne Dial, an expansion of the long-standing "conversation forecasting" task: instead of just accuracy, evaluation is conducted with uncertainty-aware metrics, effectively enabling abstention on individual instances. We study two ways in which language models potentially represent outcome uncertainty (internally, using scores and directly, using tokens) and propose fine-tuning strategies to improve calibration of both representations. Experiments on eight difficult negotiation corpora demonstrate that our proposed fine-tuning strategies (a traditional supervision strategy and an off-policy reinforcement learning strategy) can calibrate smaller open-source models to compete with pre-trained models 10x their size.

The analysis of scientific data and complex multivariate systems requires information quantities that capture relationships among multiple random variables. Recently, new information-theoretic measures have been developed to overcome the shortcomings of classical ones, such as mutual information, that are restricted to considering pairwise interactions. Among them, the concept of information synergy and redundancy is crucial for understanding the high-order dependencies between variables. One of the most prominent and versatile measures based on this concept is O-information, which provides a clear and scalable way to quantify the synergy-redundancy balance in multivariate systems. However, its practical application is limited to simplified cases. In this work, we introduce SOmegaI, which allows for the first time to compute O-information without restrictive assumptions about the system. Our experiments validate our approach on synthetic data, and demonstrate the effectiveness of SOmegaI in the context of a real-world use case.

Uncertainty sampling in active learning is heavily used in practice to reduce the annotation cost. However, there has been no wide consensus on the function to be used for uncertainty estimation in binary classification tasks and convergence guarantees of the corresponding active learning algorithms are not well understood. The situation is even more challenging for multi-category classification. In this work, we propose an efficient uncertainty estimator for binary classification which we also extend to multiple classes, and provide a non-asymptotic rate of convergence for our uncertainty sampling-based active learning algorithm in both cases under no-noise conditions (i.e., linearly separable data). We also extend our analysis to the noisy case and provide theoretical guarantees for our algorithm under the influence of noise in the task of binary and multi-class classification.

We investigate the sets of joint probability distributions that maximize the average multi-information over a collection of margins. These functionals serve as proxies for maximizing the multi-information of a set of variables or the mutual information of two subsets of variables, at a lower computation and estimation complexity. We describe the maximizers and their relations to the maximizers of the multi-information and the mutual information.

We identify five selected open problems in the theory of quantum information, which are rather simple to formulate, were well-studied in the literature, but are technically not easy. As these problems enjoy diverse mathematical connections, they offer a huge breakthrough potential. The first four concern existence of certain objects relevant for quantum information, namely a family of symmetric informationally complete generalized measurements in an infinite sequence of dimensions, mutually unbiased bases in dimension six, absolutely maximally entangled states for four subsystems with six levels each and bound entangled states with negative partial transpose. The fifth problem requires checking whether a certain state of a two-ququart system is 2-copy distillable. An award for solving each of them is announced.

We introduce the category of information structures, whose objects are suitable diagrams of measurable sets that encode the possible outputs of a given family of observables and their mutual relationships of refinement; they serve as mathematical models of contextuality in classical and quantum settings. Each information structure can be regarded as a ringed site with trivial topology; the structure ring is generated by the observables themselves and its multiplication corresponds to joint measurement. We extend Baudot and Bennequin's definition of information cohomology to this setting, as a derived functor in the category of modules over the structure ring, and show explicitly that the bar construction gives a projective resolution in that category, recovering in this way the cochain complexes previously considered in the literature. Finally, we study the particular case of a one-parameter family of coefficients made of functions of probability distributions. The only 1-cocycles are Shannon entropy or Tsallis alpha-entropy, depending on the value of the parameter.

In many contexts, lying -- the use of verbal falsehoods to deceive -- is harmful. While lying has traditionally been a human affair, AI systems that make sophisticated verbal statements are becoming increasingly prevalent. This raises the question of how we should limit the harm caused by AI "lies" (i.e. falsehoods that are actively selected for). Human truthfulness is governed by social norms and by laws (against defamation, perjury, and fraud). Differences between AI and humans present an opportunity to have more precise standards of truthfulness for AI, and to have these standards rise over time. This could provide significant benefits to public epistemics and the economy, and mitigate risks of worst-case AI futures. Establishing norms or laws of AI truthfulness will require significant work to: (1) identify clear truthfulness standards; (2) create institutions that can judge adherence to those standards; and (3) develop AI systems that are robustly truthful. Our initial proposals for these areas include: (1) a standard of avoiding "negligent falsehoods" (a generalisation of lies that is easier to assess); (2) institutions to evaluate AI systems before and after real-world deployment; and (3) explicitly training AI systems to be truthful via curated datasets and human interaction. A concerning possibility is that evaluation mechanisms for eventual truthfulness standards could be captured by political interests, leading to harmful censorship and propaganda. Avoiding this might take careful attention. And since the scale of AI speech acts might grow dramatically over the coming decades, early truthfulness standards might be particularly important because of the precedents they set.

The remarkable performance of large language models (LLMs) in content generation, coding, and common-sense reasoning has spurred widespread integration into many facets of society. However, integration of LLMs raises valid questions on their reliability and trustworthiness, given their propensity to generate hallucinations: plausible, factually-incorrect responses, which are expressed with striking confidence. Previous work has shown that hallucinations and other non-factual responses generated by LLMs can be detected by examining the uncertainty of the LLM in its response to the pertinent prompt, driving significant research efforts devoted to quantifying the uncertainty of LLMs. This survey seeks to provide an extensive review of existing uncertainty quantification methods for LLMs, identifying their salient features, along with their strengths and weaknesses. We present existing methods within a relevant taxonomy, unifying ostensibly disparate methods to aid understanding of the state of the art. Furthermore, we highlight applications of uncertainty quantification methods for LLMs, spanning chatbot and textual applications to embodied artificial intelligence applications in robotics. We conclude with open research challenges in uncertainty quantification of LLMs, seeking to motivate future research.

Uncertainty estimation is crucial for evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly in high-stakes domains where incorrect answers result in significant consequences. Numerous approaches consider this problem, while focusing on a specific type of uncertainty, ignoring others. We investigate what estimates, specifically token-wise entropy and model-as-judge (MASJ), would work for multiple-choice question-answering tasks for different question topics. Our experiments consider three LLMs: Phi-4, Mistral, and Qwen of different sizes from 1.5B to 72B and 14 topics. While MASJ performs similarly to a random error predictor, the response entropy predicts model error in knowledge-dependent domains and serves as an effective indicator of question difficulty: for biology ROC AUC is 0.73. This correlation vanishes for the reasoning-dependent domain: for math questions ROC-AUC is 0.55. More principally, we found out that the entropy measure required a reasoning amount. Thus, data-uncertainty related entropy should be integrated within uncertainty estimates frameworks, while MASJ requires refinement. Moreover, existing MMLU-Pro samples are biased, and should balance required amount of reasoning for different subdomains to provide a more fair assessment of LLMs performance.

Readers of academic research papers often read with the goal of answering specific questions. Question Answering systems that can answer those questions can make consumption of the content much more efficient. However, building such tools requires data that reflect the difficulty of the task arising from complex reasoning about claims made in multiple parts of a paper. In contrast, existing information-seeking question answering datasets usually contain questions about generic factoid-type information. We therefore present QASPER, a dataset of 5,049 questions over 1,585 Natural Language Processing papers. Each question is written by an NLP practitioner who read only the title and abstract of the corresponding paper, and the question seeks information present in the full text. The questions are then answered by a separate set of NLP practitioners who also provide supporting evidence to answers. We find that existing models that do well on other QA tasks do not perform well on answering these questions, underperforming humans by at least 27 F1 points when answering them from entire papers, motivating further research in document-grounded, information-seeking QA, which our dataset is designed to facilitate.

Large language models (LLMs) can suffer from hallucinations when generating text. These hallucinations impede various applications in society and industry by making LLMs untrustworthy. Current LLMs generate text in an autoregressive fashion by predicting and appending text tokens. When an LLM is uncertain about the semantic meaning of the next tokens to generate, it is likely to start hallucinating. Thus, it has been suggested that hallucinations stem from predictive uncertainty. We introduce Semantically Diverse Language Generation (SDLG) to quantify predictive uncertainty in LLMs. SDLG steers the LLM to generate semantically diverse yet likely alternatives for an initially generated text. This approach provides a precise measure of aleatoric semantic uncertainty, detecting whether the initial text is likely to be hallucinated. Experiments on question-answering tasks demonstrate that SDLG consistently outperforms existing methods while being the most computationally efficient, setting a new standard for uncertainty estimation in LLMs.

The recent proliferation of research into transformer based natural language processing has led to a number of studies which attempt to detect the presence of human-like cognitive behavior in the models. We contend that, as is true of human psychology, the investigation of cognitive behavior in language models must be conducted in an appropriate population of an appropriate size for the results to be meaningful. We leverage work in uncertainty estimation in a novel approach to efficiently construct experimental populations. The resultant tool, PopulationLM, has been made open source. We provide theoretical grounding in the uncertainty estimation literature and motivation from current cognitive work regarding language models. We discuss the methodological lessons from other scientific communities and attempt to demonstrate their application to two artificial population studies. Through population based experimentation we find that language models exhibit behavior consistent with typicality effects among categories highly represented in training. However, we find that language models don't tend to exhibit structural priming effects. Generally, our results show that single models tend to over estimate the presence of cognitive behaviors in neural models.

Stochastic optimization is one of the central problems in Machine Learning and Theoretical Computer Science. In the standard model, the algorithm is given a fixed distribution known in advance. In practice though, one may acquire at a cost extra information to make better decisions. In this paper, we study how to buy information for stochastic optimization and formulate this question as an online learning problem. Assuming the learner has an oracle for the original optimization problem, we design a 2-competitive deterministic algorithm and a e/(e-1)-competitive randomized algorithm for buying information. We show that this ratio is tight as the problem is equivalent to a robust generalization of the ski-rental problem, which we call super-martingale stopping. We also consider an adaptive setting where the learner can choose to buy information after taking some actions for the underlying optimization problem. We focus on the classic optimization problem, Min-Sum Set Cover, where the goal is to quickly find an action that covers a given request drawn from a known distribution. We provide an 8-competitive algorithm running in polynomial time that chooses actions and decides when to buy information about the underlying request.

This document presents a detailed description of the challenge on clarifying questions for dialogue systems (ClariQ). The challenge is organized as part of the Conversational AI challenge series (ConvAI3) at Search Oriented Conversational AI (SCAI) EMNLP workshop in 2020. The main aim of the conversational systems is to return an appropriate answer in response to the user requests. However, some user requests might be ambiguous. In IR settings such a situation is handled mainly thought the diversification of the search result page. It is however much more challenging in dialogue settings with limited bandwidth. Therefore, in this challenge, we provide a common evaluation framework to evaluate mixed-initiative conversations. Participants are asked to rank clarifying questions in an information-seeking conversations. The challenge is organized in two stages where in Stage 1 we evaluate the submissions in an offline setting and single-turn conversations. Top participants of Stage 1 get the chance to have their model tested by human annotators.

Estimating the difficulty of multiple-choice questions would be great help for educators who must spend substantial time creating and piloting stimuli for their tests, and for learners who want to practice. Supervised approaches to difficulty estimation have yielded to date mixed results. In this contribution we leverage an aspect of generative large models which might be seen as a weakness when answering questions, namely their uncertainty, and exploit it towards exploring correlations between two different metrics of uncertainty, and the actual student response distribution. While we observe some present but weak correlations, we also discover that the models' behaviour is different in the case of correct vs wrong answers, and that correlations differ substantially according to the different question types which are included in our fine-grained, previously unused dataset of 451 questions from a Biopsychology course. In discussing our findings, we also suggest potential avenues to further leverage model uncertainty as an additional proxy for item difficulty.

Ever since the Multilayered Perceptron was first introduced the connectionist community has struggled with the concept of uncertainty and how this could be represented in these types of models. This past decade has seen a lot of effort in trying to join the principled approach of probabilistic modeling with the scalable nature of deep neural networks. While the theoretical benefits of this consolidation are clear, there are also several important practical aspects of these endeavors; namely to force the models we create to represent, learn, and report uncertainty in every prediction that is made. Many of these efforts have been based on extending existing frameworks with additional structures. We present Borch, a scalable deep universal probabilistic programming language, built on top of PyTorch. The code is available for download and use in our repository https://gitlab.com/desupervised/borch.

A new prior is proposed for learning representations of high-level concepts of the kind we manipulate with language. This prior can be combined with other priors in order to help disentangling abstract factors from each other. It is inspired by cognitive neuroscience theories of consciousness, seen as a bottleneck through which just a few elements, after having been selected by attention from a broader pool, are then broadcast and condition further processing, both in perception and decision-making. The set of recently selected elements one becomes aware of is seen as forming a low-dimensional conscious state. This conscious state is combining the few concepts constituting a conscious thought, i.e., what one is immediately conscious of at a particular moment. We claim that this architectural and information-processing constraint corresponds to assumptions about the joint distribution between high-level concepts. To the extent that these assumptions are generally true (and the form of natural language seems consistent with them), they can form a useful prior for representation learning. A low-dimensional thought or conscious state is analogous to a sentence: it involves only a few variables and yet can make a statement with very high probability of being true. This is consistent with a joint distribution (over high-level concepts) which has the form of a sparse factor graph, i.e., where the dependencies captured by each factor of the factor graph involve only very few variables while creating a strong dip in the overall energy function. The consciousness prior also makes it natural to map conscious states to natural language utterances or to express classical AI knowledge in a form similar to facts and rules, albeit capturing uncertainty as well as efficient search mechanisms implemented by attention mechanisms.

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) frameworks enable large language models (LLMs) to retrieve relevant information from a knowledge base and incorporate it into the context for generating responses. This mitigates hallucinations and allows for the updating of knowledge without retraining the LLM. However, RAG does not guarantee valid responses if retrieval fails to identify the necessary information as the context for response generation. Also, if there is contradictory content, the RAG response will likely reflect only one of the two possible responses. Therefore, quantifying uncertainty in the retrieval process is crucial for ensuring RAG trustworthiness. In this report, we introduce a four-step framework for applying conformal prediction to quantify retrieval uncertainty in RAG frameworks. First, a calibration set of questions answerable from the knowledge base is constructed. Each question's embedding is compared against document embeddings to identify the most relevant document chunks containing the answer and record their similarity scores. Given a user-specified error rate ({\alpha}), these similarity scores are then analyzed to determine a similarity score cutoff threshold. During inference, all chunks with similarity exceeding this threshold are retrieved to provide context to the LLM, ensuring the true answer is captured in the context with a (1-{\alpha}) confidence level. We provide a Python package that enables users to implement the entire workflow proposed in our work, only using LLMs and without human intervention.

As machine learning technology gets applied to actual products and solutions, new challenges have emerged. Models unexpectedly fail to generalize to small changes in the distribution, tend to be confident on novel data they have never seen, or cannot communicate the rationale behind their decisions effectively with the end users. Collectively, we face a trustworthiness issue with the current machine learning technology. This textbook on Trustworthy Machine Learning (TML) covers a theoretical and technical background of four key topics in TML: Out-of-Distribution Generalization, Explainability, Uncertainty Quantification, and Evaluation of Trustworthiness. We discuss important classical and contemporary research papers of the aforementioned fields and uncover and connect their underlying intuitions. The book evolved from the homonymous course at the University of T\"ubingen, first offered in the Winter Semester of 2022/23. It is meant to be a stand-alone product accompanied by code snippets and various pointers to further sources on topics of TML. The dedicated website of the book is https://trustworthyml.io/.

This topical review article gives an overview of the interplay between quantum information theory and thermodynamics of quantum systems. We focus on several trending topics including the foundations of statistical mechanics, resource theories, entanglement in thermodynamic settings, fluctuation theorems and thermal machines. This is not a comprehensive review of the diverse field of quantum thermodynamics; rather, it is a convenient entry point for the thermo-curious information theorist. Furthermore this review should facilitate the unification and understanding of different interdisciplinary approaches emerging in research groups around the world.

Large language models (LLMs) often suffer from context faithfulness hallucinations, where outputs deviate from retrieved information due to insufficient context utilization and high output uncertainty. Our uncertainty evaluation experiments reveal a strong correlation between high uncertainty and hallucinations. We hypothesize that attention mechanisms encode signals indicative of contextual utilization, validated through probing analysis. Based on these insights, we propose Dynamic Attention-Guided Context Decoding (DAGCD), a lightweight framework that integrates attention distributions and uncertainty signals in a single-pass decoding process. Experiments across QA datasets demonstrate DAGCD's effectiveness, achieving significant improvements in faithfulness and robustness while maintaining computational efficiency.

Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables (BNN+LVs) capture predictive uncertainty by explicitly modeling model uncertainty (via priors on network weights) and environmental stochasticity (via a latent input noise variable). In this work, we first show that BNN+LV suffers from a serious form of non-identifiability: explanatory power can be transferred between the model parameters and latent variables while fitting the data equally well. We demonstrate that as a result, in the limit of infinite data, the posterior mode over the network weights and latent variables is asymptotically biased away from the ground-truth. Due to this asymptotic bias, traditional inference methods may in practice yield parameters that generalize poorly and misestimate uncertainty. Next, we develop a novel inference procedure that explicitly mitigates the effects of likelihood non-identifiability during training and yields high-quality predictions as well as uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that our inference method improves upon benchmark methods across a range of synthetic and real data-sets.

This paper presents a groundbreaking self-improving interference management framework tailored for wireless communications, integrating deep learning with uncertainty quantification to enhance overall system performance. Our approach addresses the computational challenges inherent in traditional optimization-based algorithms by harnessing deep learning models to predict optimal interference management solutions. A significant breakthrough of our framework is its acknowledgment of the limitations inherent in data-driven models, particularly in scenarios not adequately represented by the training dataset. To overcome these challenges, we propose a method for uncertainty quantification, accompanied by a qualifying criterion, to assess the trustworthiness of model predictions. This framework strategically alternates between model-generated solutions and traditional algorithms, guided by a criterion that assesses the prediction credibility based on quantified uncertainties. Experimental results validate the framework's efficacy, demonstrating its superiority over traditional deep learning models, notably in scenarios underrepresented in the training dataset. This work marks a pioneering endeavor in harnessing self-improving deep learning for interference management, through the lens of uncertainty quantification.

Natural language reasoning plays an increasingly important role in improving language models' ability to solve complex language understanding tasks. An interesting use case for reasoning is the resolution of context-dependent ambiguity. But no resources exist to evaluate how well Large Language Models can use explicit reasoning to resolve ambiguity in language. We propose to use ambiguous definite descriptions for this purpose and create and publish the first benchmark dataset consisting of such phrases. Our method includes all information required to resolve the ambiguity in the prompt, which means a model does not require anything but reasoning to do well. We find this to be a challenging task for recent LLMs. Code and data available at: https://github.com/sfschouten/exploiting-ambiguity

Modifying the fundamental commutation relation of quantum mechanics to reflect the influence of gravity is an important approach to reconcile the contradiction between quantum field theory and general relativity. In the past two decades, researchers have conducted extensive research on geometric phase problems in non-commutative spaces, but few have mentioned the correction of geometric phase problems using the Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP). This paper is the first to study the phase correction of Aharonov-Bohm (AB) effect by GUP.

This paper introduces a novel type theory and logic for probabilistic reasoning. Its logic is quantitative, with fuzzy predicates. It includes normalisation and conditioning of states. This conditioning uses a key aspect that distinguishes our probabilistic type theory from quantum type theory, namely the bijective correspondence between predicates and side-effect free actions (called instrument, or assert, maps). The paper shows how suitable computation rules can be derived from this predicate-action correspondence, and uses these rules for calculating conditional probabilities in two well-known examples of Bayesian reasoning in (graphical) models. Our type theory may thus form the basis for a mechanisation of Bayesian inference.

Markov categories are a novel framework to describe and treat problems in probability and information theory. In this work we combine the categorical formalism with the traditional quantitative notions of entropy, mutual information, and data processing inequalities. We show that several quantitative aspects of information theory can be captured by an enriched version of Markov categories, where the spaces of morphisms are equipped with a divergence or even a metric. As it is customary in information theory, mutual information can be defined as a measure of how far a joint source is from displaying independence of its components. More strikingly, Markov categories give a notion of determinism for sources and channels, and we can define entropy exactly by measuring how far a source or channel is from being deterministic. This recovers Shannon and R\'enyi entropies, as well as the Gini-Simpson index used in ecology to quantify diversity, and it can be used to give a conceptual definition of generalized entropy.

Neural network (NN) potentials promise highly accurate molecular dynamics (MD) simulations within the computational complexity of classical MD force fields. However, when applied outside their training domain, NN potential predictions can be inaccurate, increasing the need for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). Bayesian modeling provides the mathematical framework for UQ, but classical Bayesian methods based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are computationally intractable for NN potentials. By training graph NN potentials for coarse-grained systems of liquid water and alanine dipeptide, we demonstrate here that scalable Bayesian UQ via stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) yields reliable uncertainty estimates for MD observables. We show that cold posteriors can reduce the required training data size and that for reliable UQ, multiple Markov chains are needed. Additionally, we find that SG-MCMC and the Deep Ensemble method achieve comparable results, despite shorter training and less hyperparameter tuning of the latter. We show that both methods can capture aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty reliably, but not systematic uncertainty, which needs to be minimized by adequate modeling to obtain accurate credible intervals for MD observables. Our results represent a step towards accurate UQ that is of vital importance for trustworthy NN potential-based MD simulations required for decision-making in practice.

Gravitational waves from merging binary neutron stars carry characteristic information about their astrophysical properties, including masses and tidal deformabilities, that are needed to infer their radii. In this study, we use Bayesian inference to quantify the precision with which radius can inferred with upgrades in the current gravitational wave detectors and next-generation observatories such as the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer. We assign evidences for a set of plausible equations of state, which are then used as weights to obtain radius posteriors. We find that prior choices and the loudness of observed signals limit the precision and accuracy of inferred radii by current detectors. In contrast, next-generation observatories can resolve the radius precisely and accurately, across most of the mass range to within lesssim 5% for both soft and stiff equations of state. We also explore how the choice of the neutron star mass prior can influence the inferred masses and potentially affect radii measurements, finding that choosing an astrophysically motivated prior does not notably impact an individual neutron star's radius measurements.

I argue that data becomes temporarily interesting by itself to some self-improving, but computationally limited, subjective observer once he learns to predict or compress the data in a better way, thus making it subjectively simpler and more beautiful. Curiosity is the desire to create or discover more non-random, non-arbitrary, regular data that is novel and surprising not in the traditional sense of Boltzmann and Shannon but in the sense that it allows for compression progress because its regularity was not yet known. This drive maximizes interestingness, the first derivative of subjective beauty or compressibility, that is, the steepness of the learning curve. It motivates exploring infants, pure mathematicians, composers, artists, dancers, comedians, yourself, and (since 1990) artificial systems.

Information seeking users often pose questions with false presuppositions, especially when asking about unfamiliar topics. Most existing question answering (QA) datasets, in contrast, assume all questions have well defined answers. We introduce CREPE, a QA dataset containing a natural distribution of presupposition failures from online information-seeking forums. We find that 25% of questions contain false presuppositions, and provide annotations for these presuppositions and their corrections. Through extensive baseline experiments, we show that adaptations of existing open-domain QA models can find presuppositions moderately well, but struggle when predicting whether a presupposition is factually correct. This is in large part due to difficulty in retrieving relevant evidence passages from a large text corpus. CREPE provides a benchmark to study question answering in the wild, and our analyses provide avenues for future work in better modeling and further studying the task.

In discriminative settings such as regression and classification there are two random variables at play, the inputs X and the targets Y. Here, we demonstrate that the Variational Information Bottleneck can be viewed as a compromise between fully empirical and fully Bayesian objectives, attempting to minimize the risks due to finite sampling of Y only. We argue that this approach provides some of the benefits of Bayes while requiring only some of the work.

In domains with high stakes such as law, recruitment, and healthcare, learning models frequently rely on sensitive user data for inference, necessitating the complete set of features. This not only poses significant privacy risks for individuals but also demands substantial human effort from organizations to verify information accuracy. This paper asks whether it is necessary to use all input features for accurate predictions at inference time. The paper demonstrates that, in a personalized setting, individuals may only need to disclose a small subset of their features without compromising decision-making accuracy. The paper also provides an efficient sequential algorithm to determine the appropriate attributes for each individual to provide. Evaluations across various learning tasks show that individuals can potentially report as little as 10\% of their information while maintaining the same accuracy level as a model that employs the full set of user information.

We seek to understand fundamental tradeoffs between the accuracy of prior information that a learner has on a given problem and its learning performance. We introduce the notion of prioritized risk, which differs from traditional notions of minimax and Bayes risk by allowing us to study such fundamental tradeoffs in settings where reality does not necessarily conform to the learner's prior. We present a general reduction-based approach for extending classical minimax lower-bound techniques in order to lower bound the prioritized risk for statistical estimation problems. We also introduce a novel generalization of Fano's inequality (which may be of independent interest) for lower bounding the prioritized risk in more general settings involving unbounded losses. We illustrate the ability of our framework to provide insights into tradeoffs between prior information and learning performance for problems in estimation, regression, and reinforcement learning.

Astrophysical uncertainties in dark matter direct detection experiments are typically addressed by parametrizing the velocity distribution in terms of a few uncertain parameters that vary around some central values. Here we propose a method to optimize over all velocity distributions lying within a given distance measure from a central distribution. We discretize the dark matter velocity distribution as a superposition of streams, and use a variety of information divergences to parametrize its uncertainties. With this, we bracket the limits on the dark matter-nucleon and dark matter-electron scattering cross sections, when the true dark matter velocity distribution deviates from the commonly assumed Maxwell-Boltzmann form. The methodology pursued is general and could be applied to other physics scenarios where a given physical observable depends on a function that is uncertain.

A key to knowledge graph embedding (KGE) is to choose a proper representation space, e.g., point-wise Euclidean space and complex vector space. In this paper, we propose a unified perspective of embedding and introduce uncertainty into KGE from the view of group theory. Our model can incorporate existing models (i.e., generality), ensure the computation is tractable (i.e., efficiency) and enjoy the expressive power of complex random variables (i.e., expressiveness). The core idea is that we embed entities/relations as elements of a symmetric group, i.e., permutations of a set. Permutations of different sets can reflect different properties of embedding. And the group operation of symmetric groups is easy to compute. In specific, we show that the embedding of many existing models, point vectors, can be seen as elements of a symmetric group. To reflect uncertainty, we first embed entities/relations as permutations of a set of random variables. A permutation can transform a simple random variable into a complex random variable for greater expressiveness, called a normalizing flow. We then define scoring functions by measuring the similarity of two normalizing flows, namely NFE. We construct several instantiating models and prove that they are able to learn logical rules. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of introducing uncertainty and our model. The code is available at https://github.com/changyi7231/NFE.

In recent years, active learning has been successfully applied to an array of NLP tasks. However, prior work often assumes that training and test data are drawn from the same distribution. This is problematic, as in real-life settings data may stem from several sources of varying relevance and quality. We show that four popular active learning schemes fail to outperform random selection when applied to unlabelled pools comprised of multiple data sources on the task of natural language inference. We reveal that uncertainty-based strategies perform poorly due to the acquisition of collective outliers, i.e., hard-to-learn instances that hamper learning and generalization. When outliers are removed, strategies are found to recover and outperform random baselines. In further analysis, we find that collective outliers vary in form between sources, and show that hard-to-learn data is not always categorically harmful. Lastly, we leverage dataset cartography to introduce difficulty-stratified testing and find that different strategies are affected differently by example learnability and difficulty.

A probabilistic classifier with reliable predictive uncertainties i) fits successfully to the target domain data, ii) provides calibrated class probabilities in difficult regions of the target domain (e.g.\ class overlap), and iii) accurately identifies queries coming out of the target domain and rejects them. We introduce an original combination of Evidential Deep Learning, Neural Processes, and Neural Turing Machines capable of providing all three essential properties mentioned above for total uncertainty quantification. We observe our method on five classification tasks to be the only one that can excel all three aspects of total calibration with a single standalone predictor. Our unified solution delivers an implementation-friendly and compute efficient recipe for safety clearance and provides intellectual economy to an investigation of algorithmic roots of epistemic awareness in deep neural nets.

To enable quantitative risk assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex and coupled IoT systems, a new epistemological equation is designed and tested though comparative and empirical analysis. The comparative analysis is conducted on national digital strategies, followed by an empirical analysis of cyber risk assessment approaches. The new epistemological analysis approach enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems, which begin to resemble artificial intelligence, and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.

In this paper I apply newly-proposed information-theoretic principles to thermodynamic work extraction. I show that if it is possible to extract work deterministically from a physical system prepared in any one of a set of states, then those states must be distinguishable from one another. This result is formulated independently of scale and of particular dynamical laws; it also provides a novel connection between thermodynamics and information theory, established via the law of conservation of energy (rather than the second law of thermodynamics). Albeit compatible with these conclusions, existing thermodynamics approaches cannot provide a result of such generality, because they are scale-dependent (relying on ensembles or coarse-graining) or tied to particular dynamical laws. This paper thus provides a broader foundation for thermodynamics, with implications for the theory of von Neumann's universal constructor

With a rise in false, inaccurate, and misleading information in propaganda, news, and social media, real-world Question Answering (QA) systems face the challenges of synthesizing and reasoning over contradicting information to derive correct answers. This urgency gives rise to the need to make QA systems robust to misinformation, a topic previously unexplored. We study the risk of misinformation to QA models by investigating the behavior of the QA model under contradicting contexts that are mixed with both real and fake information. We create the first large-scale dataset for this problem, namely Contra-QA, which contains over 10K human-written and model-generated contradicting pairs of contexts. Experiments show that QA models are vulnerable under contradicting contexts brought by misinformation. To defend against such a threat, we build a misinformation-aware QA system as a counter-measure that integrates question answering and misinformation detection in a joint fashion.

Combined electric power system and High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) models are being developed to determine the effect of a HEMP on the US power grid. The work relies primarily on deterministic methods; however, it is computationally untenable to evaluate the E1 HEMP response of large numbers of grid components distributed across a large interconnection. Further, the deterministic assessment of these components' failures are largely unachievable. E1 HEMP laboratory testing of the components is accomplished, but is expensive, leaving few data points to construct failure models of grid components exposed to E1 HEMP. The use of Bayesian priors, developed using the subject matter expertise, combined with the minimal test data in a Bayesian inference process, provides the basis for the development of more robust and cost-effective statistical component failure models. These can be used with minimal computational burden in a simulation environment such as sampling of Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs).

High-quality arguments are an essential part of decision-making. Automatically predicting the quality of an argument is a complex task that recently got much attention in argument mining. However, the annotation effort for this task is exceptionally high. Therefore, we test uncertainty-based active learning (AL) methods on two popular argument-strength data sets to estimate whether sample-efficient learning can be enabled. Our extensive empirical evaluation shows that uncertainty-based acquisition functions can not surpass the accuracy reached with the random acquisition on these data sets.

We investigate the fidelity of Grover's search algorithm by implementing it on an open quantum system. In particular, we study with what accuracy one can estimate that the algorithm would deliver the searched state. In reality, every system has some influence of its environment. We include the environmental effects on the system dynamics by using a recently reported fluctuation-regulated quantum master equation (FRQME). The FRQME indicates that in addition to the regular relaxation due to system-environment coupling, the applied drive also causes dissipation in the system dynamics. As a result, the fidelity is found to depend on both the drive-induced dissipative terms and the relaxation terms and we find that there exists a competition between them, leading to an optimum value of the drive amplitude for which the fidelity becomes maximum. For efficient implementation of the search algorithm, precise knowledge of this optimum drive amplitude is essential.

We study the probabilistic modeling performed by Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) through the angle of time directionality, addressing a question first raised in (Shannon, 1951). For large enough models, we empirically find a time asymmetry in their ability to learn natural language: a difference in the average log-perplexity when trying to predict the next token versus when trying to predict the previous one. This difference is at the same time subtle and very consistent across various modalities (language, model size, training time, ...). Theoretically, this is surprising: from an information-theoretic point of view, there should be no such difference. We provide a theoretical framework to explain how such an asymmetry can appear from sparsity and computational complexity considerations, and outline a number of perspectives opened by our results.

One challenge in fact checking is the ability to improve the transparency of the decision. We present a fact checking method that uses reference information in knowledge graphs (KGs) to assess claims and explain its decisions. KGs contain a formal representation of knowledge with semantic descriptions of entities and their relationships. We exploit such rich semantics to produce interpretable explanations for the fact checking output. As information in a KG is inevitably incomplete, we rely on logical rule discovery and on Web text mining to gather the evidence to assess a given claim. Uncertain rules and facts are turned into logical programs and the checking task is modeled as an inference problem in a probabilistic extension of answer set programs. Experiments show that the probabilistic inference enables the efficient labeling of claims with interpretable explanations, and the quality of the results is higher than state of the art baselines.

Treatment effect estimation in continuous time is crucial for personalized medicine. However, existing methods for this task are limited to point estimates of the potential outcomes, whereas uncertainty estimates have been ignored. Needless to say, uncertainty quantification is crucial for reliable decision-making in medical applications. To fill this gap, we propose a novel Bayesian neural controlled differential equation (BNCDE) for treatment effect estimation in continuous time. In our BNCDE, the time dimension is modeled through a coupled system of neural controlled differential equations and neural stochastic differential equations, where the neural stochastic differential equations allow for tractable variational Bayesian inference. Thereby, for an assigned sequence of treatments, our BNCDE provides meaningful posterior predictive distributions of the potential outcomes. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first tailored neural method to provide uncertainty estimates of treatment effects in continuous time. As such, our method is of direct practical value for promoting reliable decision-making in medicine.

A prominent challenge of offline reinforcement learning (RL) is the issue of hidden confounding: unobserved variables may influence both the actions taken by the agent and the observed outcomes. Hidden confounding can compromise the validity of any causal conclusion drawn from data and presents a major obstacle to effective offline RL. In the present paper, we tackle the problem of hidden confounding in the nonidentifiable setting. We propose a definition of uncertainty due to hidden confounding bias, termed delphic uncertainty, which uses variation over world models compatible with the observations, and differentiate it from the well-known epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We derive a practical method for estimating the three types of uncertainties, and construct a pessimistic offline RL algorithm to account for them. Our method does not assume identifiability of the unobserved confounders, and attempts to reduce the amount of confounding bias. We demonstrate through extensive experiments and ablations the efficacy of our approach on a sepsis management benchmark, as well as on electronic health records. Our results suggest that nonidentifiable hidden confounding bias can be mitigated to improve offline RL solutions in practice.

Shadow tomography for quantum states provides a sample efficient approach for predicting the properties of quantum systems when the properties are restricted to expectation values of 2-outcome POVMs. However, these shadow tomography procedures yield poor bounds if there are more than 2 outcomes per measurement. In this paper, we consider a general problem of learning properties from unknown quantum states: given an unknown d-dimensional quantum state rho and M unknown quantum measurements M_1,...,M_M with Kgeq 2 outcomes, estimating the probability distribution for applying M_i on rho to within total variation distance epsilon. Compared to the special case when K=2, we need to learn unknown distributions instead of values. We develop an online shadow tomography procedure that solves this problem with high success probability requiring O(Klog^2Mlog d/epsilon^4) copies of rho. We further prove an information-theoretic lower bound that at least Omega(min{d^2,K+log M}/epsilon^2) copies of rho are required to solve this problem with high success probability. Our shadow tomography procedure requires sample complexity with only logarithmic dependence on M and d and is sample-optimal for the dependence on K.

The ability to generate SPARQL queries from natural language questions is crucial for ensuring efficient and accurate retrieval of structured data from knowledge graphs (KG). While large language models (LLMs) have been widely adopted for SPARQL query generation, they are often susceptible to hallucinations and out-of-distribution errors when producing KG elements like Uniform Resource Identifiers (URIs) based on internal parametric knowledge. This often results in content that appears plausible but is factually incorrect, posing significant challenges for their use in real-world information retrieval (IR) applications. This has led to increased research aimed at detecting and mitigating such errors. In this paper, we introduce PGMR (Post-Generation Memory Retrieval), a modular framework that incorporates a non-parametric memory module to retrieve KG elements and enhance LLM-based SPARQL query generation. Our experimental results indicate that PGMR consistently delivers strong performance across diverse datasets, data distributions, and LLMs. Notably, PGMR significantly mitigates URI hallucinations, nearly eliminating the problem in several scenarios.

Reward models (RM) play a critical role in aligning generations of large language models (LLM) to human expectations. However, prevailing RMs fail to capture the stochasticity within human preferences and cannot effectively evaluate the reliability of reward predictions. To address these issues, we propose Uncertain-aware RM (URM) and Uncertain-aware RM Ensemble (URME) to incorporate and manage uncertainty in reward modeling. URM can model the distribution of disentangled attributes within human preferences, while URME quantifies uncertainty through discrepancies in the ensemble, thereby identifying potential lack of knowledge during reward evaluation. Experiment results indicate that the proposed URM achieves state-of-the-art performance compared to models with the same size, demonstrating the effectiveness of modeling uncertainty within human preferences. Furthermore, empirical results show that through uncertainty quantification, URM and URME can identify unreliable predictions to improve the quality of reward evaluations.

We define a probabilistic programming language for Gaussian random variables with a first-class exact conditioning construct. We give operational, denotational and equational semantics for this language, establishing convenient properties like exchangeability of conditions. Conditioning on equality of continuous random variables is nontrivial, as the exact observation may have probability zero; this is Borel's paradox. Using categorical formulations of conditional probability, we show that the good properties of our language are not particular to Gaussians, but can be derived from universal properties, thus generalizing to wider settings. We define the Cond construction, which internalizes conditioning as a morphism, providing general compositional semantics for probabilistic programming with exact conditioning.

Bayesian optimization is an approach to optimizing objective functions that take a long time (minutes or hours) to evaluate. It is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20 dimensions, and tolerates stochastic noise in function evaluations. It builds a surrogate for the objective and quantifies the uncertainty in that surrogate using a Bayesian machine learning technique, Gaussian process regression, and then uses an acquisition function defined from this surrogate to decide where to sample. In this tutorial, we describe how Bayesian optimization works, including Gaussian process regression and three common acquisition functions: expected improvement, entropy search, and knowledge gradient. We then discuss more advanced techniques, including running multiple function evaluations in parallel, multi-fidelity and multi-information source optimization, expensive-to-evaluate constraints, random environmental conditions, multi-task Bayesian optimization, and the inclusion of derivative information. We conclude with a discussion of Bayesian optimization software and future research directions in the field. Within our tutorial material we provide a generalization of expected improvement to noisy evaluations, beyond the noise-free setting where it is more commonly applied. This generalization is justified by a formal decision-theoretic argument, standing in contrast to previous ad hoc modifications.

One of the most critical tasks for startups is to validate their business model. Therefore, entrepreneurs try to collect information such as feedback from other actors to assess the validity of their assumptions and make decisions. However, previous work on decisional guidance for business model validation provides no solution for the highly uncertain and complex context of earlystage startups. The purpose of this paper is, thus, to develop design principles for a Hybrid Intelligence decision support system (HI-DSS) that combines the complementary capabilities of human and machine intelligence. We follow a design science research approach to design a prototype artifact and a set of design principles. Our study provides prescriptive knowledge for HI-DSS and contributes to previous work on decision support for business models, the applications of complementary strengths of humans and machines for making decisions, and support systems for extremely uncertain decision-making problems.

Sampling proper negatives from a large document pool is vital to effectively train a dense retrieval model. However, existing negative sampling strategies suffer from the uninformative or false negative problem. In this work, we empirically show that according to the measured relevance scores, the negatives ranked around the positives are generally more informative and less likely to be false negatives. Intuitively, these negatives are not too hard (may be false negatives) or too easy (uninformative). They are the ambiguous negatives and need more attention during training. Thus, we propose a simple ambiguous negatives sampling method, SimANS, which incorporates a new sampling probability distribution to sample more ambiguous negatives. Extensive experiments on four public and one industry datasets show the effectiveness of our approach. We made the code and models publicly available in https://github.com/microsoft/SimXNS.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Generative retrieval models encode pointers to information in a corpus as an index within the model's parameters. These models serve as part of a larger pipeline, where retrieved information conditions generation for knowledge-intensive NLP tasks. However, we identify two limitations: the generative retrieval does not account for contextual information. Secondly, the retrieval can't be tuned for the downstream readers as decoding the page title is a non-differentiable operation. This paper introduces Re3val, trained with generative reranking and reinforcement learning using limited data. Re3val leverages context acquired via Dense Passage Retrieval to rerank the retrieved page titles and utilizes REINFORCE to maximize rewards generated by constrained decoding. Additionally, we generate questions from our pre-training dataset to mitigate epistemic uncertainty and bridge the domain gap between the pre-training and fine-tuning datasets. Subsequently, we extract and rerank contexts from the KILT database using the rerank page titles. Upon grounding the top five reranked contexts, Re3val demonstrates the Top 1 KILT scores compared to all other generative retrieval models across five KILT datasets.

Large language models (LLMs) have a wealth of knowledge that allows them to excel in various Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Current research focuses on enhancing their performance within their existing knowledge. Despite their vast knowledge, LLMs are still limited by the amount of information they can accommodate and comprehend. Therefore, the ability to understand their own limitations on the unknows, referred to as self-knowledge, is of paramount importance. This study aims to evaluate LLMs' self-knowledge by assessing their ability to identify unanswerable or unknowable questions. We introduce an automated methodology to detect uncertainty in the responses of these models, providing a novel measure of their self-knowledge. We further introduce a unique dataset, SelfAware, consisting of unanswerable questions from five diverse categories and their answerable counterparts. Our extensive analysis, involving 20 LLMs including GPT-3, InstructGPT, and LLaMA, discovering an intrinsic capacity for self-knowledge within these models. Moreover, we demonstrate that in-context learning and instruction tuning can further enhance this self-knowledge. Despite this promising insight, our findings also highlight a considerable gap between the capabilities of these models and human proficiency in recognizing the limits of their knowledge.

Question processing is a fundamental step in a question answering (QA) application, and its quality impacts the performance of QA application. The major challenging issue in processing question is how to extract semantic of natural language questions (NLQs). A human language is ambiguous. Ambiguity may occur at two levels; lexical and syntactic. In this paper, we propose a new approach for resolving lexical ambiguity problem by integrating context knowledge and concepts knowledge of a domain, into shallow natural language processing (SNLP) techniques. Concepts knowledge is modeled using ontology, while context knowledge is obtained from WordNet, and it is determined based on neighborhood words in a question. The approach will be applied to a university QA system.

Neural language models (LMs) can be used to evaluate the truth of factual statements in two ways: they can be either queried for statement probabilities, or probed for internal representations of truthfulness. Past work has found that these two procedures sometimes disagree, and that probes tend to be more accurate than LM outputs. This has led some researchers to conclude that LMs "lie" or otherwise encode non-cooperative communicative intents. Is this an accurate description of today's LMs, or can query-probe disagreement arise in other ways? We identify three different classes of disagreement, which we term confabulation, deception, and heterogeneity. In many cases, the superiority of probes is simply attributable to better calibration on uncertain answers rather than a greater fraction of correct, high-confidence answers. In some cases, queries and probes perform better on different subsets of inputs, and accuracy can further be improved by ensembling the two. Code is available at github.com/lingo-mit/lm-truthfulness.

Active learning is a machine learning paradigm that aims to improve the performance of a model by strategically selecting and querying unlabeled data. One effective selection strategy is to base it on the model's predictive uncertainty, which can be interpreted as a measure of how informative a sample is. The sample's distance to the decision boundary is a natural measure of predictive uncertainty, but it is often intractable to compute, especially for complex decision boundaries formed in multiclass classification tasks. To address this issue, this paper proposes the {\it least disagree metric} (LDM), defined as the smallest probability of disagreement of the predicted label, and an estimator for LDM proven to be asymptotically consistent under mild assumptions. The estimator is computationally efficient and can be easily implemented for deep learning models using parameter perturbation. The LDM-based active learning is performed by querying unlabeled data with the smallest LDM. Experimental results show that our LDM-based active learning algorithm obtains state-of-the-art overall performance on all considered datasets and deep architectures.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

Traditional systems designed for task oriented dialog utilize knowledge present only in structured knowledge sources to generate responses. However, relevant information required to generate responses may also reside in unstructured sources, such as documents. Recent state of the art models such as HyKnow and SeKnow aimed at overcoming these challenges make limiting assumptions about the knowledge sources. For instance, these systems assume that certain types of information, such as a phone number, is always present in a structured knowledge base (KB) while information about aspects such as entrance ticket prices, would always be available in documents. In this paper, we create a modified version of the MutliWOZ-based dataset prepared by SeKnow to demonstrate how current methods have significant degradation in performance when strict assumptions about the source of information are removed. Then, in line with recent work exploiting pre-trained language models, we fine-tune a BART based model using prompts for the tasks of querying knowledge sources, as well as, for response generation, without making assumptions about the information present in each knowledge source. Through a series of experiments, we demonstrate that our model is robust to perturbations to knowledge modality (source of information), and that it can fuse information from structured as well as unstructured knowledge to generate responses.

When experiencing an information need, users want to engage with a domain expert, but often turn to an information retrieval system, such as a search engine, instead. Classical information retrieval systems do not answer information needs directly, but instead provide references to (hopefully authoritative) answers. Successful question answering systems offer a limited corpus created on-demand by human experts, which is neither timely nor scalable. Pre-trained language models, by contrast, are capable of directly generating prose that may be responsive to an information need, but at present they are dilettantes rather than domain experts -- they do not have a true understanding of the world, they are prone to hallucinating, and crucially they are incapable of justifying their utterances by referring to supporting documents in the corpus they were trained over. This paper examines how ideas from classical information retrieval and pre-trained language models can be synthesized and evolved into systems that truly deliver on the promise of domain expert advice.