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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-30/in-one-empty-store-retail-apocalypse-comes-with-zombies | Bankrupt Toys `R' Us Becomes Halloween Haunted House | In this article ; AMZN. AMAZON.COM INC. 130.15 ; W · WAYFAIR INC- A. 57.09
; WMT. WALMART INC. 155.75 ; TGT. TARGET CORP. 132.39. | Oct 30, 2019 | Bloomberg.com | To continue, please click the box below to let us know you're not a robot.
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For inquiries related to this message please contact our support team and provide the reference ID below. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-has-too-much-power-over-our-economy-activist-144149033.html | Amazon has too much power over our economy: activist | A new report from the Economic Roundtable provides a snapshot of Amazon's
(AMZN) footprint in towns and counties across America. The report, which
focuses... | Nov 29, 2019 | Yahoo Finance | Amazon has too much power over our economy: activist
Amazon’s impact on your local community is probably much larger than you think.
A new report from the Economic Roundtable provides a snapshot of Amazon’s (AMZN) footprint in towns and counties across America. The report, which focuses on the Los Angeles area in particular, finds that the arrival of Amazon and its 21 warehouses has generated new and wide ranging challenges to the city’s infrastructure, workforce, and local government. In 2018 alone, Amazon’s trucks hauled 15.5 billion ton-miles of cargo in Los Angeles, costing the city an estimated $642 million in “uncompensated public costs for noise, road wear, accidents, and harmful emissions.”
“We're deeply concerned about how much power Amazon has across the economy and across our society and even with government,” said Stacy Mitchell, co-director at the Institute for Local Self-Reliance. “This is a company that increasingly controls the basic infrastructure for commerce, that's really able to set the rules. And we see Amazon changing the nature of work, really disrespecting its workers. We see it going after governments and local governments and demanding tax breaks and other favors that aren't available to other businesses.”
The Institute for Local Self-Reliance is part of a grassroots coalition called Athena, which aims to put a stop to Amazon’s rapid growth and reign in its power over cities like Los Angeles. One solution, she proposes, is using the U.S. government’s anti-trust authority to break up the company.
“We have to solve this in a more systemic way. And that means getting to the root of the problem, which I think for us anyway means looking really at the tools of anti-monopoly policy, resurrecting the kinds of policies and approaches that we had in much of the 20th century that were critical to our prosperity,” she told Yahoo Finance.
“We didn't let any company get so large that it really strangled opportunity, strangled innovation, strangled competition,” she said. “And today, because we have let those laws go lax, we now have this big tech company that really has got just incredible reach across the economy.”
As the holiday season approaches, Amazon will push its workforce even harder as the company grinds toward maximum efficiency. To achieve its goal of ultra-fast shipping while maintaining low prices, Mitchell said, the company is “pushing a very dehumanizing approach to work.”
“What you consistently hear when you talk to Amazon workers is they're treated like robots, like machines, and not like humans,” she added. “That's a future that we don't want and really is at the root of a lot of inequality and a lot of hardship that's going on across the country.”
Nick Rose is a producer for Yahoo Finance.
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, SmartNews, LinkedIn, YouTube, and reddit. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4309840-disney-launch-marks-end-of-netflix-streaming-domination | Disney+ Launch Marks The End Of Netflix Streaming ... | Disney+ Launch Marks The End Of Netflix Streaming Domination. Nov. 30, 2019
8:23 AM ETThe Walt Disney Company (DIS)AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, VZ172 Comments 17
Likes. | Nov 30, 2019 | Seeking Alpha | Disney+ Launch Marks The End Of Netflix Streaming Domination
Summary
- Disney+ launched in November for U.S. customers. The new Disney streaming service had 10 million subscribers within 24 hours, adding 1 million per day thereafter.
- Rapid subscriber growth has led analysts to ask whether Disney could supplant Netflix, which has 158 million subscribers, as the dominant streaming platform.
- Rising competition among streaming services for both subscribers and licensed content will put further pressure on Netflix, which has experienced persistent negative cash flow.
- Disney+, as well as other new streaming services, do not need to take Netflix's crown to be successful. Netflix's persistent failure to become financially sustainable actually throws its business model into doubt.
- Among streaming plays, investors may be well served betting on Disney+. Disney's robust financial resources and vast content library will give it a distinct advantage in the streaming wars to come.
Netflix (NFLX), the original streaming platform, has enjoyed a position of tremendous market dominance in the streaming industry. In terms of both subscriber count and brand awareness, Netflix has dwarfed its nearest rivals, such as Disney’s (NYSE:DIS) Hulu, Amazon’s (AMZN) Prime Video, and Apple’s (AAPL) Apple TV. With about 158 million subscribers, Netflix has been king of the streaming hill.
However, when Disney unveiled Disney+ in April, it marked a seismic shift in the nascent streaming content industry. Media commentators and market analysts immediately took new notice of the venerable House of Mouse and its ambitions in the age of stream.
The question soon emerged: Could Disney challenge Netflix for its streaming crown?
While the debate over this question has raged for months, it ultimately misses the most important point: Disney has no need to take Netflix’s place at the top of the streaming hierarchy. Indeed, it may be undesirable – and unprofitable – for it to even try.
New Kid On The Block
Officially launched in November, Disney+ has experienced explosive subscriber growth, dwarfing the expectations of many analysts and observers. A small but carefully crafted set of new content was designed to encourage immediate signups beyond those already primed to seek access to the vast Disney content library, such as Star Wars: The Mandalorian. Special offers, such as bundling subscriptions with Hulu+ and ESPN+, and discounts through Verizon (VZ) added additional tailwinds to the launch. According to data compiled by Hedgeye Research, these various incentives drove substantial subscriber uptake during the streaming platform’s first two weeks on the market:
Source: Hedgeye Research, Twitter
Uptake has been remarkably rapid. A day after launching in the United States, Disney+ already boasted a subscriber count of about 10 million – roughly 3% of Netflix’s global subscriber count. The numbers have only continued to increase since then: By one estimate, Disney+ is gaining 1 million subscribers each and every day.
Unsurprisingly, this staggering debut has caused some observers and commentators to wonder whether Disney+ might overtake Netflix as the dominant player in streaming. Yet, while Disney+ may well end up achieving comparable subscriber levels one day, it will not happen overnight.
No Need For A Crown
It is important to recognize that Disney+ does not need to supplant Netflix in order to succeed. Indeed, those analysts wondering whether any competitor can replicate Netflix’s scale are asking the wrong question entirely. Instead, they should be asking whether replicating Netflix’s model is a good idea at all.
Source: Noteworthy–The Journal Blog, Medium
The Netflix bull thesis is predicated on the notion that once the company achieves sufficient scale, it will be able to exert significant pricing power and thus finally deliver the massive profits implied by its $138 billion market capitalization. Relentless cash burn and piling debt have failed to produce the promised rewards. Most would-be rivals for the streaming crown, Disney+ included, are quite aware of the methods Netflix employed to secure its place at the top. Few are likely to follow in its dubious footsteps.
Crucially, the notion that streaming content must somehow end up a winner-take-all enterprise – a la social media platforms of the past – seems to be without merit. Overly liberal application of this lens has, unfortunately, warped some analysts’ perceptions of both Disney’s opportunity, and Netflix’s vulnerability.
Content Is King
Disney+ is a completely different beast from Netflix. Most crucially, it owns its content library. While Netflix has invested billions of dollars into original content, it owns only a tiny fraction of its library. Hedgeye’s Andrew Freedman highlighted this unusual situation succinctly last month:
Source: Andrew Freedman, Twitter
With 95% of its content library licensed from outside sources, Netflix is inherently reliant on its external partners. This has become a serious problem for the company – one that promises only to get worse.
Bulls had long hoped that Netflix’s 158 million-strong subscriber base would act as an insurmountable moat: A content producer eager to reach consumers via streaming would, so the reasoning went, naturally choose the biggest player. Thus, Netflix’s scale would act as a self-reinforcing advantage that few rivals would even try to challenge. In reality, however, Netflix’s subscriber advantage has failed to translate into meaningful pricing power. Indeed, the cost of licensing content has escalated at an alarming rate.
Apparently, even Reed Hastings, Netflix’s CEO, has failed to understand the extent of the price escalation, as revealed in an exchange during the recent Q3 2019 earnings call:
Source: Netflix, Seeking Alpha
Netflix is racing against time. Content licensing is getting very expensive, which is a big problem for a company still facing persistent cash flow deficits. Disney, meanwhile, already owns what is arguably the world’s most valuable portfolio of intellectual property, as well as the resources needed to build new original content for its streaming offering. Trying to build that sort of IP from scratch would be staggeringly difficult and expensive; doing so under the time constraints now facing Netflix appears wholly impossible.
Investor’s Eye View
Netflix may once have been able to evolve from its current role as a leading content platform into one of a neutral multi-platform portal. Unfortunately, having become an aggressive content creator in its own right, Netflix has lost some of its credibility as a neutral actor. Its ambition to disrupt the industry naturally makes it something of an oppositional player among a host of companies working to adapt to new entertainment realities. Consequently, it may find its licensing and content partnership opportunities further constrained as other streaming players like Disney+ emerge.
In pursuit of “scale at all costs”, Netflix has built the largest streaming platform in the world. Yet, size alone is proving to be less advantageous than was once believed. Indeed, Disney+ offers the perfect counterpoint to Netflix’s strategy: Disney has worked meticulously to build a targeted, specialized platform, bolstered by numerous value-adds, from discounts on other internally-owned streaming services to partnerships with potential rivals, such as Amazon.
Disney+ has much to prove in the coming few years. However, it has already proven one point with relative finality: Netflix’s dream of becoming a sort of “Nile of the streaming world” will not become a reality anytime soon – and now likely never will.
The House of Mouse looks increasingly like the place to be for anyone interested in taking the long side on the streaming revolution.
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long DIS. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
I am/we are Short NFLX
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (172)
Steve Jobs was pals with Reed so he didn't go after Netflix; Tim Cook doesn't care.
Netflix shows are garbage; Disney has the content.
I was an early adopter of Netflix when I bought the first Roku; now I'm paying for Curiosity Stream, Vudu has free content, as do Tubi, Pluto, YouTube and Roku channel if you have their device. I dropped Netflix like a hot potato because of the trash they peddle. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-29/counter-strike-world-champions-aim-for-first-esport-team-ipo | Counter-Strike World Champions Aim for First Esport Team IPO | AMZN. AMAZON.COM INC. 130.15. USD. +5.32+4.26% · GOOGL. ALPHABET INC-A.
123.15. USD. +2.60+2.16%. Open. Denmark's Astralis is set to become the
first... | Nov 29, 2019 | Bloomberg.com | To continue, please click the box below to let us know you're not a robot.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-01/amazon-and-walmart-face-the-ire-of-70-million-indian-shopkeepers | Amazon, Walmart Face the Ire of 70 Million India Shopkeepers | In this article. AMZN. AMAZON.COM INC. 125.78. USD. +0.29+0.23% ... In this
article. AMZN. AMAZON.COM INC. 125.78. USD. +0.29+0.23%. | Dec 1, 2019 | Bloomberg.com | To continue, please click the box below to let us know you're not a robot.
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amazon-com-ring-lawsuit-idUSKBN1YV1LQ | Amazon's Ring cameras are vulnerable to hackers, lawsuit in ... | (Reuters) - Amazon.com Inc AMZN.O and its Ring home security camera unit
have been sued by an Alabama homeowner who said the cameras' defective
design... | Dec 27, 2019 | Reuters | (Reuters) - Amazon.com Inc AMZN.O and its Ring home security camera unit have been sued by an Alabama homeowner who said the cameras' defective design leaves purchasers vulnerable to cyberattacks.
In a proposed class action filed on Thursday, John Baker Orange said an unknown hacker recently accessed his Ring camera while his children, ages 7, 9 and 10, were playing basketball on the driveway, and through its speaker system encouraged them to move closer to the camera.
Orange, who said he paid $249 for his camera in July, said the cameras work only when connected to the internet, and are “fatally flawed” because they do not protect against cyberattacks, despite Ring’s assurances of “peace of mind” and “smart security here, there, everywhere.”
A spokeswoman for Ring said the Santa Monica, California-based company does not discuss legal matters.
The complaint filed in Los Angeles federal court seeks unspecified damages from Ring and Seattle-based Amazon, as well as improved security for new and existing Ring cameras.
It followed several reported incidents of hackers accessing homes through Ring cameras, including when a man repeatedly called an 8-year-old Mississippi girl a racial slur and claimed he was Santa Claus.
“A company that sells a device that is supposed to protect occupants of a home shouldn’t become a platform for potentially endangering those occupants,” John Yanchunis, a lawyer for Orange, said in an interview.
Ring’s main product is a doorbell that contains a security camera and lets homeowners monitor and communicate with visitors through a phone app even if they are not at home.
Amazon has said it bought Ring in April 2018 for $839 million in cash.
Orange, who lives in Jefferson County, Alabama, said he changed his “medium-strong” password and began using two-factor authentication for his camera after learning about the incident involving his children.
“So many devices are tethered to the Internet, and consumers simply don’t have a realization of how that can be so easily exploited,” Yanchunis said.
The case is Orange v Ring LLC et al, U.S. District Court, Central District of California, No. 19-10899.
Reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York; Editing by Cynthia Osterman
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/12/30/stock-market-19-stocks-buy-next-year-20-stocks-buy-2020-apple-amazon-microsoft-alphabet-coca-cola-di/2752847001/ | Stock market: 20 stocks to buy in 2020 including Apple ... | Amazon (AMZN). Amazon's stock is expected to benefit from strong growth in
its cloud-computing and advertising businesses. Investors have been
concerned... | Dec 30, 2019 | USA Today | 20 stocks to buy in 2020: Apple, Amazon and Disney are among favorites of Wall Street pros
After a stellar 2019, investors look ahead to 2020 for stock picks.
Analysts are skeptical that the stock market's gains, which are at more than 20% in 2019, will remain in the double-digit percentage range next year. They expect volatility to return in the midst of a U.S. presidential election.
Some investors wait for stocks to get cheaper before they step in and scoop up buying opportunities. Companies poised to outperform, they say, will be ones that can continue to grow their earnings even if the economy slows.
From iPhone maker Apple to beverage giant Coca-Cola to e-commerce titan Amazon, USA TODAY offers 20 stock picks for 2020 based on research reports and interviews with Wall Street stock analysts.
'Tis the season:Santa Claus rally poised to give 401(k) plans a boost
Worried about the stock market?:How to shield your 401(k) in 2020
Apple (AAPL)
Strong anticipated demand for Apple’s 5G iPhone next fall is projected to boost the company in 2020, according to Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson. In December, Olson reiterated his "overweight" rating on the stock and raised his 12-month price target to $305 from $290, citing robust iPhone demand and better-than-expected performance in wearables such as the Apple Watch, AirPods and AirPods Pro. Apple shares finished Thursday at $289.91.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Analysts at Bank of America named Microsoft one of the firm’s top software picks for 2020, driven by growth in the software giant’s cloud-computing unit that offers data storage. Analysts at the bank bumped up their price target on the stock to $200 from $162. Shares closed Thursday at $158.67. The stock outperformed the broader market in 2019, rising more than 50% while the S&P 500 rose nearly 30%.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon’s stock is expected to benefit from strong growth in its cloud-computing and advertising businesses. Investors have been concerned about a hit to profits from the costs of one-day shipping and investments in Amazon Web Services, but those worries are largely priced into the stock, according to UBS analyst Eric Sheridan. He gave the stock a "buy" rating with a $2,100 price target over the next 12 months. Amazon's stock closed Thursday at $1,868.77.
Coca-Cola (KO)
Looking for a stock that pays steady dividends? Coca-Cola can satisfy investors’ thirst with its stable earnings growth and ability to ride out volatility, analysts say. Sean King, analyst at UBS, gave the beverage giant a "buy" rating with a $63 price target. Shares finished at $55.02 Thursday.
Disney (DIS)
Disney is among one of the top stock picks in media, largely driven by the success of its entrance into the streaming world with Disney Plus. In November, Bernie McTernan, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities, reiterated a "buy" rating on the stock amid strong subscriber growth and increased his price target to $175 from $170, up from Thursday's close of $145.70.
Nike (NKE)
Wall Street expects Nike’s solid digital sales growth to continue as the company transitions from a wholesale retailer to a digital direct-to-consumer model. In a note to investors, Morgan Stanley analyst Kimberly Greenberger reiterated the firm’s "overweight" rating on the athletic-apparel company and raised its price target to $118 from $108. Shares of Nike finished Thursday at $100.71.
T-Mobile (TMUS)
T-Mobile’s stock is projected to rise over the next year despite what happens with its pending merger with Sprint, experts say. Jonathan Atkin, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, maintained an "outperform" rating on the telecom giant and lifted its price target to $94 from $87, citing subscriber momentum. That's up from Thursday's closing price of $77.40.
Alphabet (GOOGL)
Google parent Alphabet was among the worst-performing this year among its larger tech peers, but Wall Street keeps a close eye on the stock. The company was fined $1.7 billion this year for restricting rivals' ads in Europe, though some of its antitrust issues are beginning to wane. Jason Bazinet, an analyst at Citigroup, reiterated the firm’s "buy" recommendation and boosted its 12-month price target to $1,500 from $1,450. The stock ended Thursday at $1,362.47.
Goldman Sachs (GS)
Investment banks and financial services companies such as Goldman Sachs are poised to benefit from the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates low next year because of the firm's lack of interest rate and credit risk, says Keith Horowitz, analyst at Citigroup. The bank upgraded shares of Goldman Sachs to "buy" from "neutral" and boosted its price target to $255 from $220. Thursday, shares closed at $231.21.
Micron Technology (MU)
The slumping memory chip industry could be turning a corner. Analysts expect demand for memory chips used in PCs, servers and USB drives to accelerate in 2020 as trade tensions thaw. Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson upgraded Micron to "outperform" from "neutral" and lifted his price target to $65 from $44, up from the stock's closing price of $55.11 Thursday.
McDonald's (MCD)
Shares of McDonald’s underperformed the broader market in 2019, but its CEO shake-up, along with its innovative menu options and expansion of delivery capabilities, could drive revenue growth. Christopher Carril, an equity research analyst at RBC Capital Markets, initiated coverage on the stock in December with an "outperform" rating and target price of $218. The stock finished Thursday at $197.06.
PayPal (PYPL)
PayPal is in the midst of winding down its financial ties to former parent company eBay, which some investors fear will be an earnings obstacle. Analysts say PayPal is in a strong position to drive account growth after forming partnerships with four high-growth platforms: Facebook, Uber, Paymentus and Mercado Libre. Mark Palmer, analyst at BTIG, reiterated a "buy" rating on PayPal with a price target of $130, up from Thursday's closing price of $109.75.
Diamondback Energy (FANG)
The production outlook for Diamondback Energy looks promising. The driller, which has a strong balance sheet and reinvests in growth, is based in Permian Basin in West Texas, the heart of the U.S. shale boom. The company is expected to grow oil volumes by double digits next year. Raymond James analyst John Freeman maintained a "strong buy" rating on the stock with a $110 price target. Shares ended Thursday at $91.31.
Visa (V)
Visa heads into 2020 on an upbeat note, driven by robust credit card spending during the busy holiday shopping season. Higher spending on credit and debit cards is forecast to drive profit and revenue growth in the coming quarters. Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette raised his price target for Visa to $220 from $207, up from Thursday's closing price of $189.16.
United Health (UNH)
Analysts at Goldman Sachs are bullish on United Health, the parent of the nation's largest health insurer, because of the company’s projected earnings growth. Analysts at the firm gave United Health a "buy" rating, with a $330 price target. Shares trade around $295.
Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix, which missed its subscriber-growth targets for two straight quarters, faces more competition next year. Rival streaming services jumping into the fray include Disney Plus and Apple TV Plus, along with traditional media companies such as NBCUniversal’s Peacock and WarnerMedia’s HBO Max. Still, Wall Street’s forecasts for the subscriber growth of Netflix are too low, according to Heath Terry, analyst at Goldman Sachs. He maintained his "buy" rating on the stock with a $400 price target. Shares finished Thursday at $332.63.
Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla’s fourth-quarter profitability is on an upward trajectory, thanks to strong demand for its Model 3 sedan, experts say. Dan Ives, analyst at Wedbush, raised the automaker’s 12-month price target to $370 from $270. That's down from its closing price of $430.94 Thursday. If Tesla is able to sustain its level of profitability and demand in Europe and China, it could open the door to a new chapter of growth for the company, he said.
Salesforce (CRM)
Some analysts are bullish on Salesforce because of the cloud software company’s long-term growth prospects. The company seeks to grow in areas beyond cloud applications such as data visualization tools with its $15 billion acquisition of Tableau. This month, JPMorgan analyst Mark Murphy reaffirmed his "overweight" rating for the stock with a $200 price target, up from its closing price of $164.51 Thursday.
American Electric Power (AEP)
Investors eye American Electric Power because of the utility company's growing profits. The company benefits from investments in renewable generation. The company added wind facilities to its generation fleet, which is projected to contribute to earnings growth, analysts say. ScotiaBank changed the rating for the stock to "sector outperform" from "sector perform" and lifted its price target to $102 from $93. The stock ended at $93.88 Thursday.
Uber (UBER)
Analysts grow more bullish on Uber, now that its embattled co-founder and former Chief Executive Travis Kalanick is leaving the company’s board. Analysts at Wedbush gave the stock an "outperform" rating with a $45 price target, adding that Kalanick’s exit will put management on a forward path. Shares closed at $30.67 Thursday. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://www.pulse.com.gh/bi/politics/facebook-gaming-lands-its-biggest-exclusive-female-streamer-yet-with-vlog-squad/5wh4lqb | Facebook Gaming lands its biggest exclusive female streamer yet with 'Vlog
Squad' member and former Twitch streamer Corinna Kopf (FB, AMZN) | Facebook Gaming lands its biggest exclusive female streamer yet with 'Vlog
Squad' member and former Twitch streamer Corinna Kopf (FB, AMZN). Kat
Tenbarge. | Dec 27, 2019 | Pulse Ghana | - Kopf is a member of David Dobrik's popular "Vlog Squad" group on YouTube, and has a sizeable presence on Instagram with more than 3.5 million followers.
- In the past year, Kopf has pivoted to streaming on Twitch, where she was temporarily banned for wearing only underwear during a stream, which is against the platform's terms and conditions.
- Kopf was later unbanned, and had almost half a million followers on Twitch, but is turning to Facebook as "a home that not only empowers myself, but also my community, to make a positive impact in the gaming world."
- Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
Facebook Gaming lands its biggest exclusive female streamer yet with 'Vlog Squad' member and former Twitch streamer Corinna Kopf (FB, AMZN)
Another major video game streamer on Twitch is migrating to Facebook Gaming: this time, it's the emerging streaming platform's biggest female streamer acquisition yet, Corinna Kopf.
Professional video game streamer Corinna Kopf announced Friday that she's pivoting from Twitch to an exclusive contract with Facebook Gaming. The member of David Dobrik's "Vlog Squad" is the biggest female streamer to migrate to Facebook yet.
Kopf's social media presence is largely concentrated on YouTube and Instagram, where she has more than 3.5 million subscribers. But over the past year, she's leaned into video game streaming on Twitch, where she was temporarily banned for wearing only underwear during a stream which is against the platform's terms and conditions.
She was unbanned and had accrued almost half a million subscribers on Twitch, where she largely played "Fortnite." On Twitter, she made the announcement that she had signed an exclusive streaming contract with Facebook Gaming, something streamers told Business Insider can be more profitable and lead to more views, thanks to Facebook's massive userbase and new focus on streaming.
"As a female streamer, it's so important for me to find a home that not only empowers myself, but also my community, to make a positive impact in the gaming world," Kopf said in a statement.
On Twitter, her announcement was met with mixed reactions. Some commentators think Kopf will lose a substantial portion of her audience, and Facebook Gaming has yet to gain a fraction of the recognition that Twitch, YouTube, and Microsoft's Mixer have in the streaming world.
But Kopf isn't the first large streamer or social media star to sign with Facebook Gaming nor is she the first large Twitch personality to ditch the platform. Twitch has been losing major names, including its primary star "Ninja," for more than a year. Facebook also acquired major Twitch streamer Jeremy "DisguisedToast" Wang in late November.
Popular streamer "Tfue" replied "No more half ass birthday streams" to Kopf's tweet, in reference to her streaming session that got her banned.
Kopf's first stream will take place at 4 p.m. PT on December 30 on her Facebook Gaming profile .
- Read more:
- Gamers say they're earning more money on Facebook's streaming platform than on Twitch and YouTube
- Twitch just lost another star streamer, this time to Facebook Gaming
- Amazon's wildly popular video game streaming service, Twitch, is bleeding: These are all the stars who have left for competing services
- Sony showed off the power of the new, unreleased PlayStation 5 with a side-by-side comparison earlier this year where it crushes the PS4
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mutts-sauce-grandfathers-recipe-small-business-210103638.html | Her grandfather's recipe is the 'secret sauce' to this booming small
business | She also has national distribution via Amazon (AMZN). -. Yvette Killian is
a producer for Yahoo Finance's On The Move. READ MORE: Gold is going to
$2,500,... | Dec 27, 2019 | Yahoo Finance | Her grandfather's recipe is the 'secret sauce' to this booming small business
You know those stories about people launching businesses from an idea jotted on the back of a cocktail napkin? For former Air Force veteran Charlynda Scales, that’s pretty much how a family treasure went from recipe to business reality.
Scales started Mutt’s Sauce in 2013 with no business experience after her grandfather - also an Air Force veteran who served in Korea and Vietnam - passed away and left his secret hot sauce recipe to her, handwritten on a napkin.
The first co-packer for Mutt’s Sauce was an Amish family in Ohio. And her inaugural purchase order? A mere 700 bottles.
”We do from 700 to now 8,000 bottles per flavor [per quarter],” said Scales, in an interview with Yahoo Finance’s On The Move.
Since its humble beginnings, the company has graduated to a manufacturing facility and produces four different flavors.
Funding for the venture came from money saved during Scales time in the military.
“The decision became: do I take my savings and buy the BMW that I dreamed of having or do I put this into the business and bootstrap it?” she said. “So I bootstrapped it with my own savings of about $25,000 dollars.”
In 2018, Scales came across Aileron, a non-profit, small business and entrepreneurial training institute in Ohio that offers courses and strategies to help its clients scale their business. She said her connection to Aileron was a “game changer.”
“You’re in a room with CEOs from across the country who come to this think tank, which Aileron is, to help you learn from other entrepreneurs to think outside of the box,” she said. “They even have a Dream Room, with a white board, that you can write down everything that’s inside your head. And I know as entrepreneurs we have a thousand thoughts.”
Seven years in, Scales is finding traction in her home state supermarkets where Kroger (KR) stocks her products. She also has national distribution via Amazon (AMZN).
-
Yvette Killian is a producer for Yahoo Finance’s On The Move.
READ MORE:
Richard Branson: Virgin Galactic could send 'hundreds of thousands' of people into space
UPS CEO: 'We have a mutually beneficial relationship' with Amazon
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, SmartNews, LinkedIn, YouTube, and reddit. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/regulating-big-tech-was-mostly-talk-in-2019-expect-the-same-in-2020-2019-12-27 | Regulating Big Tech was mostly talk in 2019 — expect the same in 2020 | AMZN. -1.27% · AAPL. -0.59% · MSFT. -1.66%. They face federal antitrust
probes from the Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission,... | Dec 31, 2019 | MarketWatch | They face federal antitrust probes from the Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission, a separate investigation by 47 state attorneys general, the launch of the toughest data-privacy law in the nation’s history, and an angry mob of politicians ranging from the extreme right to the far left.
And yet it was business as usual in 2019 for Alphabet Inc.
GOOGL,
Amid all the big talk about investigations and recriminations, legal experts and politicians interviewed by MarketWatch expect that the status quo will continue in 2020, at least until the presidential election in November. What few details that have emerged — the FTC is considering seeking an injunction against Facebook for how it integrates its apps, and the Justice Department is reportedly looking at Google’s YouTube — could prompt some incremental changes. Facebook, for example, has taken several voluntary actions to appease antitrust concerns in the form of a new tool that lets consumers transfer photos to Google and other services.
But self-imposed actions such as those are unlikely to go deep, according to interviews with a dozen legal experts, politicians and Big Tech representatives, and nowhere near potential government actions, such as Facebook being forced by the FTC to spin off Instagram and WhatsApp, or Amazon splitting off its cloud division, Amazon Web Services. Those types of big moves are sheer fantasy in the current climate of political gridlock, where regulatory action and national legislation could be years away.
“Do they continue to act with impunity? Does the 2020 election change the calculus? There will be marginal changes on both counts,” Andrew Jay Schwartzman, senior counselor with the Benton Institute for Broadband & Society, told MarketWatch. “I don’t see any signs the companies are compelled to make fundamental changes in the course they have been following.”
Officially, as has mostly been the case since news of the antitrust probes surfaced in June, all four companies were conspicuously silent. They had no comment when contacted by MarketWatch.
There are other signs of incremental self regulation — YouTube on Dec. 11 announced a more rigorous anti-harassment policy, and Facebook plans to spend $130 million over six years on a Supreme Court-like group of advisers to help it filter objectionable content from its platform — but tech companies seem wary to make any big changes in response to the backlash.
“There’s an old adage in legal policy: If you change your behavior during an investigation, it is tacit acknowledgment that you’re doing something wrong,” said Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania who teaches at its law and business schools.
If there are to be any major changes in 2020, experts say, they are likely to fall into three categories: blocking of acquisitions, new privacy legislation in the mold of California’s landmark new law, and punitive actions from antitrust investigations.
Big Tech’s buying binges
The Big Four’s unadulterated acquisitions have stoked the antagonism, with the latest tempest being Google’s proposed $2.1 billion acquisition of Fitbit Inc. US:FIT.
“By attempting this deal at this moment, Google is signaling that it will continue to flex and expand its power in spite of this immense scrutiny,” Rep. David Cicilline, D-R.I., chairman of the House Antitrust Subcommittee, said in a November statement. “Google’s proposed acquisition of Fitbit would also give the company deep insights into Americans’ most sensitive information — such as their health and location data — threatening to further entrench its market power online.”
See also:Are Big Tech acquisitions feeding antitrust probes?
If you’re keeping score at home, Google’s voracious appetite for startups — more than 270, including an average of 34 a year between 2011 and 2014 — has included direct competitors YouTube; DoubleClick, an online advertiser; AdMob, a mobile advertising company; and Waze. (In June, Google snapped up big-data company Looker for $2.6 billion.) Just one acquisition, travel search firm ITA, was challenged by the government before it was conditionally approved, according to Tim Wu, a professor of law, science, and technology at Columbia University.
Facebook has devoured nearly 100 companies — many of them competitors that included WhatsApp and Instagram — since 2007 without the federal government challenging one purchase. It shut down at least 39 companies, some of which may have represented future competitors, said Wu.
Compelling evidence, yes. But not enough to provoke regulatory action under current merger laws, said Hovenkamp. Most law focuses on mega-companies joining forces in the same market, not a larger company buying a startup or extending into new markets. “Merger laws do not touch on the prediction of smaller companies becoming successful competitors to their buyer,” he said.
Dueling tech regulations
It will take nothing short of “radical” legislation, Hovenkamp and others contend, to change the behavior of big tech.
“We can’t leave it to [Big Tech] to self-regulate,” Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., whose district is in the heart of Silicon Valley, told MarketWatch in a phone interview. “We can’t simply trust for-profit companies to safeguard the privacy and data rights of consumers... Congress has to act.”
The handful of contending bills are led by the Consumer Online Privacy Rights Act (COPRA), co-sponsored by Sens. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., and Ed Markey, D-Mass. The bill would grant citizens the right to request their information from companies and ask for data to be deleted or corrected. It would also make companies responsible for getting permission to collect and share sensitive data, which includes biometric information and precise locations.
“In the growing online world, consumers deserve two things: privacy rights and a strong law to enforce them,” Cantwell said in a statement. “They should be like your Miranda rights — clear as a bell as to what they are and what constitutes a violation.”
A competing bill from Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., called the United States Consumer Data Privacy Act (USCDPA), would set nationwide rules for handling of personal information online and elsewhere and override state laws, including one in California set to take effect in the new year.
“American consumers deserve a strong national standard for the protection of their data, and American companies need certainty in order to continue innovating and competing with the rest of the world,” Wicker said in a statement.
Whether any bills make it into law is another matter, given the fractious nature of Congress. In the interim, the best bet for consumers is the California Consumer Privacy Act, the nation’s toughest privacy law, which goes into effect on Jan. 1 but isn’t likely to be enforced until mid-year. It has already drawn angst from Facebook, Google and others, which unsuccessfully tried to water down its final version with amendments, and other states hope to emulate it. (Ominously, 44% of 625 business owners and company executives polled by security company ESET said they have never heard of CCPA.)
See also:A watered-down version of California’s data-privacy law is a possibility, privacy experts warn
While non-profit organizations such as the Electronic Frontier Foundation have embraced CCPA, the tech industry is begrudgingly trying to adapt to it. Facebook on Dec. 12 said it does not plan to change its web-tracking practices to adhere to CCPA because its practices are in compliance with the new law restricting “sale” of user data.
See also:Facebook shares drop on report of possible FTC injunction
Those in the tech community familiar with CCPA, have “raced to put processes and systems in place to meet cumbersome CCPA requirements,” Gary Shapiro, CEO of the Consumer Technology Association, which represents more than 2,200 U.S. tech companies, said in a statement. “CTA welcomes California Attorney General Xavier Becerra’s efforts to clarify aspects of the CCPA and supports proposals that provide flexibility to ease companies’ compliance burdens. A common-sense federal privacy law would also be welcome [so that] startups, entrepreneurs and all businesses can follow a uniform set of principles to protect consumer data.”
See also:California’s landmark privacy law: What it does, what has changed and what it means for investors
Antitrust actions could take place
This month [DEC. 10], U.S. Attorney General William Barr said antitrust probes into Big Tech could conclude next year, though he ominously warned the investigation would extend beyond antitrust to “other behaviors.” Barr’s timeline of completed regulatory investigations this year underpins the theory among some antitrust experts that regulatory actions could happen in 2020.
“There is so much pressure on the DoJ and FTC from Congress to take action, and I think they will, on one company each,” Avery Gardiner, senior fellow for competition, data, and power at the Center for Democracy Technology, told MarketWatch. She expects actions along the lines of the conduct restrictions Microsoft
MSFT,
She just isn’t sure which companies will be penalized. The FTC is examining Facebook and Amazon; the DoJ is looking into Apple and Google.
Ultimately, antitrust actions will be based on established theories in which judges rule on precedent, she said. “I don’t think we’ll see broad antitrust legislation,” Gardiner said. “We have enough laws. They haven’t been enforced, but could now because of this politicized environment.”
Charlotte Slaiman, competition policy counsel at consumer advocacy group Public Knowledge, believes existing antitrust laws are not enough. It will take federal legislation, she contends, for Big Tech to “change their policies in accordance with the law. Self-regulation is not enough,” she said.
Slaiman is particularly hopeful about the Augmenting Compatibility and Competition by Enabling Service Switching (ACCESS) Act, co-sponsored by Sens. Mark Warner, D-Va., Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., and Josh Hawley, R-Mo. It would require “the largest companies to make user data portable — and their services interoperable — with other platforms, and to allow users to designate a trusted third-party service to manage their privacy and account settings.”
Round and round it goes: Tech companies aren’t likely to budge in their behavior as investigations and legislation slowly wend their way through the process.
“Federal and state investigations are likely to take a very long time. Years, not months,” Schwartzman said. “And I don’t see a consensus for any significant legislation that will affect companies in the next year or two regarding privacy.” | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/former-apple-store-chief-ron-johnson-amazon-is-in-trouble-181723250.html | Former Apple store chief Ron Johnson: Amazon is in trouble | Johnson says Amazon (AMZN) is pulling up to a crossroads after dominating
retail this past decade. “I think the next decade is tough for Amazon,... | Jan 13, 2020 | Yahoo Finance | Former Apple store chief Ron Johnson: Amazon is in trouble
Ron Johnson has been around the block a few times in retail. He has notched some wins (successful stint as Apple store chief working alongside Steve Jobs), and gotten a few black eyes (unsuccessful time as J.C. Penney’s CEO).
But he knows more than enough about the retail industry at this point in his long career to spot inflection points. Johnson says Amazon (AMZN) is pulling up to a crossroads after dominating retail this past decade.
“I think the next decade is tough for Amazon, they are on their heels,” Johnson told Yahoo Finance in an interview. “Amazon is an interesting place.”
Indeed they are, and it has nothing to do with government regulators starting to sniff around the online retailer’s business model pioneered by Trump foe Jeff Bezos. It has everything to do with how old school retailers are reinventing themselves — finally — to not only compete against Amazon, but be the first choice for consumers.
Take Yahoo Finance Company of the Year Target. The discounter has turned its store network into one of its biggest assets, unleashing a host of delivery options that are driving big-time sales gains and profits. Target’s stock price has skyrocketed over the past year because of that evolution.
Rival Walmart has done the same, in effect transforming physical stores into real-time distribution centers. Shareholders have rewarded its stock price, too.
These are mostly capabilities that Amazon didn’t have to deal with from rivals in the last decade. Now it has to, and is responding by spending billions on same-day delivery services in an effort to protect its turf. That will come at the expense of the profits Amazon investors have long enjoyed.
And old school retailers aren’t the only ones driving major change. Lululemon’s business is on fire amid a growing network of small stores that double as workout studios. Peloton is opening showrooms as it seeks to collect data on prospective consumers. The stores hold no inventory, just show pieces to show off to shoppers.
Canada Goose has reinvented the retail shopping model with its new stores. The locations carry next to no inventory, only showing off styles that could be delivered same-day. There is a giant ice box in the stores that help customers test out the arctic proof jackets.
In short, retail is evolving quickly. Amazon is still a force, but it’s fast realizing others are nipping at its heels. To Johnson’s point, Amazon’s next decade in retail is likely to be different...and perhaps not as generous to retailers as the last decade.
Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and co-anchor of The First Trade at Yahoo Finance. Watch The First Trade each day here at 9:00 a.m. ET. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
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Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, SmartNews, LinkedIn, YouTube, and reddit. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://wccftech.com/fedex-stock-just-shot-up-thanks-to-amazons-announcement/ | FedEx Stock Just Shot Up Thanks To Amazon’s Announcement | Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) began announcing to sellers that they can once again
use FedEx ground delivery for shipments to customers. The ban was formally
lifted... | Jan 14, 2020 | Wccftech | This is not investment advice. The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Wccftech.com has a disclosure and ethics policy.
Today was a fairly average, if slightly poor day for the stock market. The Dow Jones was on its way to a new record-high until news broke that the China tariffs would in fact remain until after the November 2020 U.S. presidential election. Most stocks sagged in the afternoon hours as a mild sell-off commenced, however FedEx (NYSE:FDX) actually surged and we can tell you exactly why that happened.
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) began announcing to sellers that they can once again use FedEx ground delivery for shipments to customers. The ban was formally lifted at 4 p.m. central time and as of this writing merchants can once again ship out goods via FedEx.
See that sharp spike in the above graph? That is the miniature buying frenzy that FedEx shares saw after Amazon simply emailed its partners giving them the green light to once again use FedEx for shipments.
About a month ago Amazon issued a ban to its 3rd party sellers which told them to cease all use of FedEx ground. Needless to say, investors in FedEx were troubled by this news as Amazon is quite the hefty client, disregarding the fact that UPS and Amazon itself also ship brown boxes to customers.
At the time Amazon said that it was worried that the use of FedEx would impact on-time Christmas deliveries, an issue that if realized would cause endless headaches for the e-commerce giant since it has a fairly generous refund and credit system when it comes to broken delivery promises.
It seems that the buying reaction is the market realizing that Amazon.com sales are about 58% third-party merchants, so this a substantial bit of news for the company. It's worth noting that FedEx already dropped Amazon 1st party ground shipments in the summer of 2019.
Who is buying and selling Amazon stock?
Thanks to the SEC 13F data, we can track large funds and if they sell or buy major tech companies that we report on here at Wccftech. TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT owned 88,963 shares last quarter of Amazon. Today the firm reported its current holdings of Amazon and the number is down to 46,595 shares. Tocqueville reduced the value of its position in Amazon over the last three months by roughly $68 million - or by about half.
Comments | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4316064-why-you-probably-shouldnt-buy-reit-etfs | Why You Probably Shouldn't Buy REIT ETFs | Why You Probably Shouldn't Buy REIT ETFs. Jan. 14, 2020 8:25 AM ETABNB,
AMT, AMZN... | Jan 14, 2020 | Seeking Alpha | Why You Probably Shouldn't Buy REIT ETFs
Summary
- REIT ETFs are a great vehicle for passive investors who have little knowledge about REIT investments.
- Active REIT investors with good access to research can do better, according to our experience.
- We present all the factors that allowed us to outperform in 2019.
- Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of High Yield Landlord get exclusive access to our model portfolio. Get started today »
REIT investments have been enormously lucrative to investors who got in early and knew what they were doing. The easiest path to outperformance over the past 20 years would have been to load up on REITs, enjoy the dividends and wait:
Today, the valuations remain reasonable, the fundamentals are strong, and the prospects for future returns are strong. Therefore, most investors understand that they should invest in REITs, whether it's for high dividends, market-beating total returns, inflation protection or simply diversification.
The more difficult question is HOW to invest in REITs? There are two main options:
- Option 1: Invest in a REIT ETF (passive)
- Option 2: Invest in individual REITs and build a Portfolio (active)
For "know-nothing investors,” the option #1 makes a lot of sense. It allows you to invest in the broader REIT market, utilizing an ETF such as the Vanguard REIT Fund (VNQ) or the iShares Real Estate (IYR).
REIT ETFs enjoy many benefits such as instant wide diversification, passive management, a low knowledge requirement and far lower fees than actively-managed solutions.
However, ETFs also have many flaws which may limit performance in the long run.
In 2019, my real-money real estate investments (incl. international) earned a 48.99% total return - after withholding taxes. In comparison, the RMZ REIT index returned 19.24%.
Source: screenshot interactive brokers report. See relevant disclosure at the end of the article.
Anything can happen in any given year, and measuring our success in a single year is not very significant. Nonetheless, we believe that it's a good exercise to look at where REIT ETFs missed out on returns. Below we discuss what allowed us to outperform in 2019.
Where did our outperformance come from?
As we often discuss on the public site, REIT ETFs suffer from many flaws. They are heavily exposed to overpriced large-cap REITs. They invest in a lot of externally managed REITs that are conflicted. And they blindly invest in challenged sectors such as retail, office, and hotels.
As a result, the upside potential is more limited, and considering that they yield only 3 to 4%, they enjoy less margin of safety, especially in a rising rate environment.
I made many mistakes with this account, including an investment in UNIT which was catastrophic. Still, I end up outperforming quite significantly because I was buying real estate for less than it is worth.
#1 – Invest in Smaller and Lesser-Known REITs
Most REIT ETFs are almost exclusively invested in large- and mega-cap REITs which are generally fully valued or overvalued. In fact, the largest REIT ETF (VNQ) has close to 40% of its capital invested in the top 10 largest REITs: American Tower (AMT), Simon Property (SPG), Crown Caste (CCI), Prologis (PLD), Equinix (EQIX), Public Storage (PSA), Welltower (WELL), Equity Residential (EQR), AvalonBay (AVB) and Digital Realty (DLR).
These are all high-quality companies, but most of them also are richly valued with little alpha-generation potential.
Smaller and lesser known REITs trade today at just 13x FFO, and by being selective, you can find high quality companies at just around 10x FFO.
In comparison, larger and better known REITs trade at over 20x FFO – a massive valuation premium relative to the smaller REITs. We believe that a large portion of this premium is caused by the indiscriminate capital flow of ETFs into large caps.
It sets large-cap REITs (and REIT ETFs) for a less compelling returns going forward. Smaller REITs are better positioned with deeper value and better margin of safety. We invest heavily in these companies because this is where the alpha is hidden.
ETFs barely invest in these smaller REITs. It gives us a head start as we earn more cash flow and dividends than ETFs.
#2 - Focus on Alpha-Rich Specialty Sectors
REIT ETFs invest heavily: Retail, office and hotel REITs. Malls suffer from the growth of Amazon (AMZN). Office properties have high capex and concerns over to the rise of co-working (WORK) and remote working. Hotels are slowly loosing their moat to Airbnb (AIRB) and other hotel booking websites.
There exists good opportunities in these challenged sectors, but we prefer to invest the bulk of our portfolio into more resilient properties. This includes:
- Manufactured Housing
- Net Lease Properties
- Casinos
- Hospitals
- Timberland
- Entertainment properties
- And Many Other...
EPR Properties (EPR) is a good example of what a well-managed specialty REIT can achieve:
These specialty property types are often bought at higher cap rates, with longer leases, and better terms for the landlord. There's less capital chasing these assets, and as a consequence, tenants have less bargaining power.
We invest heavily in these more unusual property types. Our large exposure to hospital properties earned us great returns in 2019.
#3 – Only Invest in Well-Aligned Managements
It seems like common sense to only invest in well-managed companies. But ETFs are not in the business of picking winners and avoiding losers. They invest in all companies, including, the good, the average and the bad.
By simply removing the “bad” REITs that are externally managed with significant conflicts of interest, you could improve your performance and this is not difficult or time consuming to do.
At High Yield Landlord, we only invest in REITs with high insider ownership and track records of shareholder-friendly behavior.
#4 – International REIT Opportunities
Our best performers in 2019 were select International REIT investments that shoot up to the upside. My two largest International investments, Big Yellow Group (OTC:BYLOF) and DIC Asset, returned ~40% and ~75% in 2019 alone.
Both companies are recommended at High Yield Landlord and part of our International Portfolio. Most ETFs missed out on these because they suffer from “home bias” – or the tendency to only focus on domestic equities.
It's especially costly to ignore international REIT markets because this is where we often find the best opportunities. They boost my performance, but also mitigate risks through diversification.
In 2019, I spent three months in Asia to meet management teams, tour properties, and gain better insights on the best Asian REITs.
#5 – Real Asset Boosters
Finally, unlike REIT ETFs, we do not exclusively invest in REITs. We also look for opportunities in other real asset companies that are similar to REITs, but not officially structured as REITs.
This includes windmills, energy pipelines, mines, airports, solar farms, railroads, etc. You get the point: Anything that could be considered a real estate investment:
In 2020, we expect to invest more in MLPs and other listed infrastructure companies to opportunistically diversify our portfolio.
#6 – Lower Valuation and Higher Yield
We avoid overpaying for REITs by paying close attention to valuation metrics. Most large-cap REITs trade today at over 20x FFO. We follow a value approach and seek to buy at prices that are significantly lower than that.
Moreover, we recognize that real estate is an income-driven investment. We are NOT happy with a 3-4% dividend yield. Our Core Portfolio yields 7.2% with a low 69% payout ratio - despite a yield that's almost double the REIT ETFs.
We like to call this the “landlord” approach to REIT investing because we buy REITs as if we were buying rental properties. We look for high and sustainable income and always try to get a good deal. Money is made at the acquisition by buying at below fair value. We then hold patiently to these undervalued REITs, earn high income, and wait for long-term appreciation.
This approach has served me well. So well in fact that I eventually decided to end my career in private equity real estate to dedicate my full attention to REIT investing.
Passive vs. Active Investing: Decide Wisely
REIT investors can greatly improve their results by targeting undervalued opportunities.
However, you should be aware of your limitations. If you have no access to research, do not have the expertise, or the time, you are should probably stick to REIT ETFs.
Now if you have access to good insights, have the interest to follow your positions, and are not scared to read investment reports, then you are made to become an active investor. It's not only rewarding, it's also very interesting and intellectually stimulating - just like playing a game of chess.
With Better Information, You Get Better Results…
At High Yield Landlord, We spend 1000s of hours and well over $50,000 per year researching the REIT, MLP and other real estate markets for the most profitable investment opportunities and share the results with you at a tiny fraction of the cost.
- We are the #1 rated service on Seeking Alpha with a perfect 5/5 rating.
- We are the #1 ranked service for Real Estate Investors with 1400 members.
Take advantage of the 2-week free trial and join our community of ~1400 "landlords" before we hike the price!
This article was written by
Jussi Askola is a former private equity real estate investor with experience working for a +$250 million investment firm in Dallas, Texas; and performing property acquisition in Germany. Today, he is the author of "High Yield Landlord” - the #1 ranked real estate service on Seeking Alpha. Join us for a 2-week free trial and get access to all my highest conviction investment ideas. Click here to learn more!
Jussi is also the President of Leonberg Capital - a value-oriented investment boutique specializing in mispriced real estate securities often trading at high discounts to NAV and excessive yields. In addition to having passed all CFA exams, Jussi holds a BSc in Real Estate Finance from University Nürtingen-Geislingen (Germany) and a BSc in Property Management from University of South Wales (UK). He has authored award-winning academic papers on REIT investing, been featured on numerous financial media outlets, has over 50,000 followers on SeekingAlpha, and built relationships with many top REIT executives.
DISCLAIMER: Jussi Askola is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. The information in his articles and his comments on SeekingAlpha.com or elsewhere is provided for information purposes only. Do your own research or seek the advice of a qualified professional. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. High Yield Landlord is managed by Leonberg Capital.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long EPR. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Relevant disclosure to presented performance: past performance is no indication of future results. Our portfolio may not be perfectly comparable to the relevant index. It is more concentrated, includes international REITs, and may at times invest in companies that are not typically included in REIT indexes. The performance of our portfolio is underrepresented because it is affected by withholding taxes on all dividends. Calculations done by Interactive Borkers.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (60)
But, what are examples of the small capitalized REITs that are going or have gone gang busters this 2019?
I agree. Just one suggestion: with international REITs, you need to be very more picky because most international REITs are poorly managed. I think that an ETF will do an even worse job with these. We run a separate international REIT portfolio at High Yield Landlord: seekingalpha.com/...
12-Month Trailing Yield-- 8.02%
Distribution Yield -- 7.68%
Distribution Frequency-- MonthlySRET webpage here: www.globalxetfs.com/...Disclosure: I am long SRET.
Has all the best in its tot 10 holdings & pays a great yield !
Of course, RQI is leveraged (22%), but Cohen and Steers also have an unleveraged real estate CEF, RFI, which clocked a total return of 44.5% in 2019 (current yield is 6.52%). Its price appreciation (excluding distribution income) was 34.7%For details see chart at i.imgur.com/... | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://www.reuters.com/article/soccer-germany-idINKBN1ZC17Z | Bundesliga signs with Amazon Web Services for real-time ... | (Reuters) - Germany's Bundesliga said on Monday that it had signed a deal
with Amazon Web Services (AWS), making the Amazon.com AMZN. | Jan 13, 2020 | Reuters | (Reuters) - Germany's Bundesliga said on Monday that it had signed a deal with Amazon Web Services (AWS), making the Amazon.com AMZN.O company its official technology provider to deliver advanced real-time statistics to spectators from this season.
The deal, which makes the Bundesliga the first soccer league to establish a cooperation with AWS, will see spectators receive in-depth insights for every live broadcast of games in the top two tiers of German soccer across mobile, television and web.
“The... statistics service will deliver data across multiple platforms and devices, providing fans with a new user experience and visualisations, to keeps fans engaged, no matter where they are,” the Bundesliga said in a statement.
The league added that AWS machine learning capabilities will offer fans real-time predictions on when a goal is likely to be scored and identify potential goalscoring opportunities.
It will also highlight how teams are positioning and controlling play based on live data streams as well as historical data from over 10,000 Bundesliga games.
The Bundesliga season resumes on Jan. 17 following its winter break.
Reporting by Shrivathsa Sridhar in Bengaluru; Editing by Christian Radnedge
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/latest-e-commerce-market-share-185120510.html | Latest E-Commerce Market Share Numbers Highlight Amazon's Dominance | ... retailers have struggled to adapt their models to compete with
Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) and other companies that are gobbling up
market share. | Feb 4, 2020 | Yahoo Finance | Latest E-Commerce Market Share Numbers Highlight Amazon's Dominance
The secular transition of the retail market from brick-and-mortar stores to online and omnichannel models is one of the biggest investing trends in the retail sector today. Traditional physical retailers have struggled to adapt their models to compete with Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) and other companies that are gobbling up market share.
On Monday, Bank of America analyst Justin Post compiled an update on the latest e-commerce market share trends so investors can see which companies are dominating the space.
The Numbers
Bank of America estimates Amazon generated $79.8 billion in U.S. gross merchandise volume in the fourth quarter of 2019, up 19% from a year ago. At the same time, Post estimates eBay Inc (NASDAQ: EBAY) generated $8.9 billion in GMV, down 8.3%. Bank of America estimates fourth-quarter online GMV growth for Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT) and Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) of 23.6% and 19%, respectively.
“Our conclusion is that Walmart and Target are seeing notable progress in their Online offering and customer adoption, but Online volumes still do not have large enough relative scale to materially impact/disrupt Amazon,” Post wrote in a note.
Bank of America estimates Amazon currently has about 44% of U.S. e-commerce market share, up from 40% in 2018. Walmart is a distant second at just 7% followed by eBay at 5% and Target at just 2%.
2020 And Beyond
Looking ahead to 2020, Bank of America is projecting 15.7% online GMV growth for Amazon, -5.8% growth for eBay, 23.1% growth for Walmart and 18% growth for Target. Post anticipates these “big four” U.S. e-commerce leaders will capture a combined 56% of the 2020 online shopping market. He’s projecting total U.S. online GMV will grow 13% this year to reach $672 billion.
Bank of America estimates Amazon will add $41 billion in U.S. GMV this year, while Walmart and Target will add a combined $12 billion.
Post is particularly bullish on Amazon given the company has now seemingly passed the investment phase of its free One-Day shipping expansion.
Benzinga’s Take
To nobody’s surprise, Amazon is the clear leader in online sales and will likely remain in that position indefinitely. The good news for Walmart and Target investors is that both companies are gaining market share in the massive and rapidly-growing global online sales market. There will certainly be plenty of room for multiple winners in the long-term.
Do you agree with this take? Email [email protected] with your thoughts.
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https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/02/04/how-an-accounting-tweak-will-make-amazons-most-pro.aspx | How an Accounting Tweak Will Make Amazon's Most ... | The e-commerce giant's cloud computing business continues to get more
efficient. Amazon (AMZN 0.23%) reported blockbuster fourth-quarter results
last week,... | Feb 4, 2020 | The Motley Fool | Amazon (AMZN -0.63%) reported blockbuster fourth-quarter results last week, sending the e-commerce giant's market cap back above $1 trillion. The move higher was fueled by heavy investments in one-day delivery that are already starting to pay off. As usual, the Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud infrastructure business carried overall profitability, representing two-thirds of the company's total operating income during the quarter.
CFO Brian Olsavsky also disclosed that AWS is about to get even more profitable.
Making servers last longer
On the conference call, Olsavsky noted that Amazon's guidance for the first quarter includes $800 million less in depreciation expenses due to an accounting tweak: Amazon is extending the useful life of its data center servers.
Amazon has historically estimated the useful life of its servers at three years but is now increasing that time frame to four years effective this year. The move follows the completion of a useful life study that Amazon conducted in Q4, the company notes in its 10-K. Changing that estimate is expected to boost operating income in 2020 by a whopping $2.3 billion.
The adjustment does not affect any depreciation that Amazon has already recognized or cash it has already spent, but merely changes how the company accounts for depreciation of those assets going forward. Importantly, this isn't purely an accounting adjustment. Amazon has been working hard to improve the operating efficiency of its cloud infrastructure, and AWS has continued to refine its software in a way that makes its servers last longer by reducing stress on the hardware, Olsavsky added. Those improvements apply to both AWS and the server infrastructure that powers the core e-commerce platform.
"So we are essentially reflecting the fact that we have gotten better at extending the useful life here and [are] now building that into our financials looking forward," the finance chief said. The improvements will also reduce the capital intensity of the AWS business, as Amazon can extend its capital expenditure cycles and increase capital efficiency.
"We expect technology and content costs to grow at a slower rate in 2020 due to an increase in the estimated useful life of our servers, which will impact each of our segments," Amazon states in its annual report.
How depreciation works
When companies invest in long-lived assets, instead of expensing those costs up front, those investments are capitalized and placed on the balance sheet. Management then needs to estimate the useful life of those assets and determine a depreciation method, such as accelerated or straight-line, among others.
For server infrastructure, Amazon uses straight-line depreciation over the estimated useful life; extending the useful life of an asset results in lower depreciation expense per year. With 13 years of experience under its belt, AWS continues to get even stronger as competition in the cloud infrastructure market heats up. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200205005243/en/Carrier-Selects-AWS-as-its-Preferred-Cloud-Provider-to-Drive-Digital-Transformation | Carrier Selects AWS as its Preferred Cloud Provider to Drive ... | (AWS), an Amazon.com company (NASDAQ: AMZN), announced that Carrier, a
leader in heating, ventilating, air-conditioning, refrigeration, fire,
security, and... | Feb 5, 2020 | Business Wire | SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Today, Amazon Web Services, Inc. (AWS), an Amazon.com company (NASDAQ: AMZN), announced that Carrier, a leader in heating, ventilating, air-conditioning, refrigeration, fire, security, and building automation technologies, has chosen AWS as its preferred cloud provider. Carrier is moving up to 70 percent of its 4,000 servers and 996 applications away from legacy servers and databases to AWS, reducing IT infrastructure costs while also positioning the company to innovate and deliver more products and services to its customers around the world. In addition, Carrier will use AWS data warehouse, analytics, and machine learning (ML) services to identify efficiencies in its manufacturing processes and supply chains, and AWS Internet of Things (IoT) services to underpin a new line of intelligent, networked products and services for the home, workplace, and refrigerated logistics chain. Carrier, part of United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), expects to become a standalone public company in the first half of 2020 and plans to leverage AWS to drive its digital transformation and lead the next era of growth and expansion in the industry.
Carrier plans to build its data lake on Amazon Simple Storage Service (Amazon S3) and use AWS ML services to query and gain insights from real-time and historical data recorded across its manufacturing and supply chain lines. The gains in forecasting and efficiency derived from those insights will enable Carrier to more quickly develop new offerings and bring innovations to its customers. In addition, Carrier will use AWS’s IoT services, such as AWS IoT Core, IoT Analytics, and IoT Events, to connect its products into intelligent systems, and AWS’s ML and artificial intelligence services to allow those systems to learn from users’ habits and adjust automatically to improve efficiency without sacrificing performance. For instance, a smart climate control system that processes data from linked sensors throughout an office tower could be used to identify occupancy patterns over different times and days of the week and then modulate temperature, humidity, and ventilation to provide a comfortable environment more aligned with demand. Moving forward, Carrier will build on AWS to deliver new software services that give customers the ability to monitor, optimize, report on, and forecast the performance and utilization of their IoT devices.
“At Carrier, we are pushing to drive more innovation and connectivity to make buildings more sustainable, efficient, and comfortable,” said Bobby George, Vice President and Chief Digital Officer at Carrier. “Carrier’s work with AWS is an integral part of our digital transformation, and AWS is the hyperscale platform on which we expect to turn connected product and ecosystem data into opportunities for segment growth, new market channels, and improved customer experiences.”
“For more than a century, Carrier products and services have shaped the indoor environments in which people around the world live and work,” said Mike Clayville, Vice President, Worldwide Commercial Sales at AWS, Inc. “With AWS’s unmatched set of cloud services, Carrier is positioned to leap ahead in its vision of transforming itself for the digital age, putting data to work to provide better customer experiences, and delivering agility that will enable it to remain a global leader in building technologies.”
About Amazon Web Services
For almost 14 years, Amazon Web Services has been the world’s most comprehensive and broadly adopted cloud platform. AWS offers over 175 fully featured services for compute, storage, databases, networking, analytics, robotics, machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), mobile, security, hybrid, virtual and augmented reality (VR and AR), media, and application development, deployment, and management from 69 Availability Zones (AZs) within 22 geographic regions, with announced plans for 16 more Availability Zones and five more AWS Regions in Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Africa, and Spain. Millions of customers—including the fastest-growing startups, largest enterprises, and leading government agencies—trust AWS to power their infrastructure, become more agile, and lower costs. To learn more about AWS, visit aws.amazon.com.
About Amazon
Amazon is guided by four principles: customer obsession rather than competitor focus, passion for invention, commitment to operational excellence, and long-term thinking. Customer reviews, 1-Click shopping, personalized recommendations, Prime, Fulfillment by Amazon, AWS, Kindle Direct Publishing, Kindle, Fire tablets, Fire TV, Amazon Echo, and Alexa are some of the products and services pioneered by Amazon. For more information, visit amazon.com/about and follow @AmazonNews.
About Carrier
Carrier is a leading global provider of innovative heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire, security, and building automation technologies. Supported by the iconic Carrier name, the company is committed to making the world safer and more comfortable for generations to come through its industry-leading brands such as Carrier, Kidde, Edwards, LenelS2, and Automated Logic. For more information, visit corporate.carrier.com and follow @Carrier on social media. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://www.wfaa.com/article/money/business/amazon-taps-dallas-fort-worth-for-new-fulfillment-centers/287-cbbd8437-ae04-4f99-8a83-8fed4a87fd03 | Amazon taps Dallas-Fort Worth for new fulfillment centers | Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) signed a 10-year lease at Eastpoint Distribution
Center, according to a news release from real estate investment manager
Dalfen... | Feb 4, 2020 | WFAA | DALLAS — Amazon once again has its eyes upon North Texas – this time with plans to add two more fulfillment centers in the region.
Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) signed a 10-year lease at Eastpoint Distribution Center, according to a news release from real estate investment manager Dalfen Industrial.
The 419,626 square-foot facility is located at 8901 Forney Road in East Dallas and has been occupied by Amazon since Sept. 1, 2019, according to the release.
The Dallas Morning News reported Tuesday that the online retailer also is expected to occupy a 465,450-square-foot facility within Hunt Southwest's Interstate Crossing development in North Fort Worth. The building, located at 1511 NE Loop 820, is set to undergo a $22 million renovation, according to the report.
The fulfillment center will occupy 45 percent of the space in the building at Interstate Crossing, according to a brochure for the center.
These new fulfillment centers come after reports that the company is looking to retrofit a spec warehouse near DFW International Airport. The retail giant is said to take up 1 million square feet at the facility.
The moves bolster Amazon’s already large industrial presence in North Texas. There are 10 Amazon fulfillment and sortation centers across the region, according to Avalara. Dallas-Fort Worth accounts for nearly two-thirds of the 16 fulfillment and sortation centers in Texas.
The fulfillment centers are in addition to Alliance Airport’s Amazon Air cargo facility in Fort Worth.
An Amazon representative told the Dallas Business Journal last year that the Seattle-based e-retailer had more than 22,000 full-time jobs in Texas and had invested more than $7 billion in the state since 2011. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://geektyrant.com/news/alternate-scene-in-thor-ragnarok-shows-thor-and-loki-confront-hela-in-a-nyc-alleyway | Alternate Scene in THOR: RAGNAROK Shows Thor and Loki ... | ... Movie info: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3501632/ Buy it on HD:
https://amzn.to/2YIzLQU Buy it on 4K: https://amzn.to/2WSk5Lq Starring:
Chris Hemsworth,... | Feb 5, 2020 | GeekTyrant | Alternate Scene in THOR: RAGNAROK Shows Thor and Loki Confronting Hela in a NYC Alleyway
GeekTyrant Homepage
Thanks to Marvel’s Infinity Box Set, we have an alternate scene for you to watch that offers us a different take on where Thor (Chris Hemsworth) and Loki (Tom Hiddleston) come face to face with Hela (Cate Blanchett) for the first time in Thor: Ragnarok.
In the scene we saw in the final cut of the film, they are in a beautiful green grass landscape. In this alternate take, which was the original version, Thor and Loki face off with her in a New York City alleyway. The creative team obviously thought the other setting worked better for what they wanted to do with the story.
You can watch and compare both scenes below and tell us what you think. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-price-gouging-3-charts-show-amazons-wild-spikes-215034577.html | Coronavirus price gouging: 3 charts show Amazon's wild spikes | Amazon (AMZN) and other companies have been fighting price gouging on their
platforms as coronavirus fears prompt nervous consumers to hoard supplies
to... | Mar 4, 2020 | Yahoo Finance | Coronavirus price gouging: 3 charts show Amazon's wild spikes
Amazon (AMZN) and other companies have been fighting price gouging on their platforms as coronavirus fears prompt nervous consumers to hoard supplies to deal with possible quarantines and related disruptions.
It’s just one of the problems online platforms that involve third-party sales face: Amazon barred a million products because they falsely claimed they could do something to defend against the coronavirus, which has caused 3,214 deaths so far, according to Johns Hopkins’ aggregator.
Amazon’s public line on price gouging has been: “there’s no place for price-gouging on Amazon.” And the retailer has been coronavirus-conscious, especially in Washington, one of the first states to see coronavirus activity. (Already, an Amazon employee has tested positive and the company is preparing itself for remote work for some of its employees.)
But still, prices for some goods have skyrocketed. While Amazon may have surge restrictions in place for its own products, third-party sellers offered — and in some cases still offer — cheap products at wild prices after Amazon’s own stock was exhausted.
Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) sent a letter to Amazon Wednesday telling the company that “corporate America has a responsibility to prevent profiteering on the sales of items such as hand-sanitizer and surgical masks,” and gave the company until March 18th to respond.
Cursory checks of the website Wednesday afternoon showed prices for a pack of eight one-ounce Purell bottles for $89.99. It usually costs around $13 on Amazon. This has been the case for many other products, like N95 masks and disinfecting wipes.
Lysol disinfecting wipes (a package of four containers) averaged $11.79 from Amazon before they sold out, according to Camel Camel Camel, a popular Amazon price tracker. After Amazon’s own warehouses ran out, prices spiked among third-party sellers to almost $180 before coming down to $54.
Amazon, to its credit, had kept prices stable until supplies ran out. (See where the green line turns to dots.)
A 3M high-efficiency dust mask 20-pack cost $19 on Amazon until the end of January. It then spiked to $70, and then went up to $144. Amazon has been cracking down on third-party merchants that have been listing products for exorbitant prices, so there’s typically only a handful of “offers” at a time at a particular price. (Dust masks are not thought of as effective against viruses.)
Looking at the price history for a more effective type of mask — though public health officials are saying masks are not effective and hoarding them is not a good idea — shows Amazon’s behavior more clearly. For an N95 3M respirator, Amazon’s price rose a little with the demand, going from around $15 to $27. That was the price Amazon itself — not third-party sellers — charged for their last mask.
But even though Amazon, the price for these masks went up to $249. As Amazon purged these listings, prices fell and went back up as new sellers, looking to take advantage, stepped in.
Since 2016, a two-pack of 8-ounce Purell bottles have never been more than $12 – until recently, when they jumped up to $17.61 from Amazon itself. After Amazon sold out on March 4, third-party prices spiked up to $150. The company’s whack-a-mole machine managed to get those off the site, but other listings at $59.95 were up on Wednesday.
These prices likely won’t last for too long, as consumers get enough stock-piled, experts spread the message that most people don’t need to buy masks, and global supply chains — potentially hit by the virus itself — respond to the demand surge. According to 3M, the manufacturer of many of these masks, production has been ramped up across its locations in the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Latin America.
--
Ethan Wolff-Mann is a writer at Yahoo Finance focusing on consumer issues, personal finance, retail, airlines, and more. Follow him on Twitter @ewolffmann.
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Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, LinkedIn, YouTube, and reddit. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4329554-facebook-uncertainties-in-sight | Facebook: Uncertainties In Sight (NASDAQ:META) | 04, 2020 1:53 PM ETMeta Platforms, Inc. (META)AMZN, GOOG, GOOGL39 Comments
10 Likes. Francisco Javier Garcia profile picture. Francisco Javier Garcia. | Mar 4, 2020 | Seeking Alpha | Facebook: Uncertainties In Sight
Summary
- FB's problem is due to the fact that its core business depends almost entirely on online advertising revenue.
- Its core businesses, online advertising revenue, lose strength as its market share decreases due to the saturation of a mature market.
- Despite this, I expect a good year for this 2020 due to the significant reduction in total expenses compared to the previous year 2019.
Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), along with Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), are two large companies whose main business comes from online advertising revenue. They represent approximately 60% of the market share of online advertising revenue in the US. In fact, they form a duopoly within this market for several years.
FB's problem is due to the fact that its core business depends almost entirely on online advertising revenue. Something similar to what happens with Google. In this sense, FB is another victim, like Google, of the saturation of the online advertising market (a mature market) and, on the other hand, also like Google, of what I have called "the change of e -consumers habits”. This change in habits means that e-consumers are making progressively and in recent years their searches, mainly, directly from the Amazon Search platform, rather than from the Google Search. And this causes, in turn, that advertisers prefer to place ads on Amazon, rather than Google or FB. Therefore, all this translates into a slow but progressive reduction in the growth rate of FB and Google revenues.
This is explained in my article: "Alphabet: Not The Best Long Term Investment In The Tech Sector".
And this is estimated according to FB's future revenue forecasts: last year's (2019) revenue growth rate was approximately 25%. For this year 2020 a growth rate of 20% and by 2022 of 17% are expected. A clear downward trend in the revenue growth rate for the coming years.
There is a factor that in 2019 has had a significant negative influence on the operating margin, and it has been the high operating costs that the company has incurred exceptionally. From what I have been able to read, there have been specific costs (legal compensation, equipment improvement costs to guarantee the confidentiality of personal data, etc.), so it is expected that this year 2020 will not be repeated. Therefore, I think that this year 2020 can be a good year for FB, because although the income growth rate will continue to decrease, operating costs will be significantly lower than those of last year 2019, and due to this we can see improvements in the operating margins, and therefore in net earnings.
The problem I see in the company over the next few years is due to the unstoppable decreasing trend in the revenue growth rate and the total dependence of FB on online advertising revenue.
FB should try to diversify into other business segments to avoid such a strong dependence on advertising revenue, but I think this task will not be easy.
As main assets, it has a global network of 2.7B users connected per month, and with several applications of massive use worldwide ( WhatsApp , Instagram, etc.). And adding to this $55 billion in cash.
The challenge that FB must face is knowing how to diversify its revenue sources through alternative business segments to those of online advertising revenue.
FB: A revenue problem
As we explained in the previous section, FB has a problem with revenue. Since 2016, the annual revenue growth rate has not stopped decreasing. This can be easily seen reflected in the following graphic:
Source: Marketing Land
In 2016, the annual revenue growth rate reached a maximum of 63%, and since then it has not stopped decreasing to reach the current 25% of last year 2019. But the forecasts are not very promising, since a growth rate is expected for this year 2020 of 21% and by 2021 of 16.5%.
The same happens to Google. Absolute dominator in the online advertising revenue market for years, and although it will continue to be for a few more years, the trend seems to go against it.
The duopoly of the advertising market is losing strength and looks sideways at a small third actor who seems to enter strongly: Amazon. This is what I called “David (Amazon) vs. Goliath (FB + Google)” as i explain in my previous article: "Why Google Should Be Afraid Of Amazon".
Source: eMarketer
This battle of David against Goliath has been going on for some years and seems to continue for other years.
Will David finally dethrone Goliath?
I really don't know or think anyone knows today. But what is unquestionable is that the trend of loss of power from the duopoly and an increase in Amazon's revenue market share exists, and that it will continue for a few more years.
FB executives should be working on the diversification of business segments to ensure a good future for the company in the coming years.
As I mentioned in the previous paragraph, FB has several interesting assets: Watsup, Instagram, etc. All these social networks have a good number of users from whom something can be obtained. Anyway, all these social applications have based part of their success on the fact that they have been free, so I do not think that imposing a subscription fee in the future, or something similar, would a good idea, as it will scare to a good part to the users
In addition to this, it has about $55 billion in cash, which would allow it to make some corporate purchases in some high-growth segment.
Despite the uncertainties regarding long-term revenue, I expect a good year 2020
Everything discussed so far implies some important challenges that FB must face in the coming years.
The paradox here is that I look forward to a good year for this 2020. But why?
Well, because it is expected that in 2020 the operating cost will be reduced compared to the previous year 2019, and this will probably result in an improvement in the operating margins and, therefore, in the net earnings in relation to the previous year 2019.In 2019 there was a significant increase in operating costs due to specific and exceptional events, such as the payment of fines for infringements related to the privacy of FB users information, higher costs derived from the implementation of software improvements to comply with the demanding regulations on the privacy of users' personal information, etc.
These costs have meant an 51% increase in the costs of the year 2019 compared to the previous 2018, which caused the operating margin to be reduced to 33.9%, having reached 48% the previous year 2018.
For this year 2020, FB estimates a cost increase of 21% compared to the previous year, significantly less than that obtained last year 2019. This expected cost reduction this year 2020 will probably positively affect the operating margin and earnings of this year 2020. That is why I believe that this year 2020 can be a good year for FB in terms of margin and earnings improvement.
Despite this, uncertainties continue to stalk FB's future for years to come. This good expected year 2020 can be a transitory mirage if effective management is not taken to diversify the company's revenue sources.
Conclusion
The important challenges that faces FB, with a decreasing trend in terms of the revenue growth rate in recent years, must be resolved effectively, because the trend will undoubtedly continue in the coming years. Its core businesses, online advertising revenue, lose strength as its market share decreases due to the saturation of a mature market and in which a new participant, Amazon, seems to gain strength and accumulates part of the lost advertising revenue lost by Google and FB.
Despite this, I expect a good year for this 2020, due to the significant reduction in total expenses compared to the previous year 2019. This expected expenses reduction will cause an improvement in the operating margins and in the net earnings. And all this due to the fact that last year 2019 FB incurred a series of extraordinary expenses for several reasons that raised its operating costs well above its average.
In any case, this expected improvement for this year 2020 will be only a transitory mirage if Managers do not effectively assume the challenge of obtaining alternative business segments that allow diversifying FB revenue sources, thus clearing the company's future.
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (39)
- The global digital ad pie is growing
and expanding in such a manner that it can accommodate many players — but, FB’s precision ad targeting is the “platinum standard”, best in the business.
- However, like the ever expanding cloud ☁️ , the expansion mimics the ever expanding universe that is grand enough to “profitably” 💰 accommodate any number of competitors vying for a piece of the action.👍*Competition is not always “win-lose”, it invariably amounts to “win-win” in the business arena, eh?!🎯🖖
It’s like FB and Google trying to get e-commerce from Amazon.
A non issue for the next 5 years. Both new lines of business ads/Amazon and e-commerce/FB/Google) will keep growing. But their core businesses will be the same.If I were you I would be worried more on FB attacking Amazon on w e-commerce than Amazon trying to do “everything” ala Google. FB have the worldwide billions of users, their likes, their profiles, groups, etc I mean the perfect data to sell anything to anyone. E-commerce is a perfect complement to FB. The risk on their core business is way bigger for Amazon/eBay/Meli, etc.
IMHO.
On Youtube, I often wonder if they are even targeting me or if I watch a TV commercial...
Long FB
Alibaba, which is another great buy during these times.
It’s an impressive cash generating machine with a dominant position in a field that isn’t exposed to many of the ongoing risks weighing on markets currently:
Supply risk/global supply chain disruptions: no risk to FB
Travel restrictions, people prefer to stay home and avoir crowd - no risk to FB, probably more of a tailwind.
Economic slowdown - low risk. There will be enough companies still looking to spend on advertising and actually even more so with FB to maximise cost/impact (targeted advertising). Also first move is sales are slowing will be to boost ad budget and not to cut costs. This comes later in the cycle.
I am actually surprised FB isn’t much higher in the current context. It’s a a safe heaven investment with growth and high profitability. Risk/reward superior to other fangs
Is apparel, and Starbucks is coffee
Really author core biz questions on FB?
At least, people deposit their money into Libra wallet to pay for transactions and also facebook can potentially work with financial institutions to allow these depositors to use Libra to invest funds or any investment tools where Facebook can get a min fees from the brokers or Asset managers | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://www.broomfieldenterprise.com/2020/03/05/amazon-planning-200000-square-foot-distribution-center-in-broomfield/ | Amazon planning 200,000-square-foot distribution center in Broomfield | (Nasdaq: AMZN) at McWhinney's Baseline development in Broomfield. The
project, preliminarily reviewed by Broomfield officials in February, has
faced scrutiny... | Mar 5, 2020 | Broomfield Enterprise | Local developer McWhinney Real Estate Services Inc. plans to build a new 200,000-square-foot delivery center that would be leased to Amazon Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN) at McWhinney’s Baseline development in Broomfield.
The project, preliminarily reviewed by Broomfield officials in February, has faced scrutiny from City Council and Planning and Zoning Commission members who questioned impacts on traffic, noise, housing affordability, neighborhood aesthetics and infrastructure.
Plans submitted by the developers to the city were vague about the eventual tenant of the proposed delivery hub at a nearly 54-acre site between Huron Street, W. 160th Ave., Interstate 25 and Northwest Parkway. In fact, a representative for the company on hand at last month’s project review to answer questions from Broomfield leaders introduced himself only as “John,” and employee of “the tenant.” It was only when asked directly by Guyleen Castriotta that the representative volunteered that he works for Amazon.
Amazon and McWhinney did not respond to requests by BizWest for additional information about the project.
Amazon maintains three fulfillment centers in the Denver metro area, with a 2.4 million-square-foot location in Thornton, a 1 million-square-foot location in Aurora, and a new 123,000-square-foot operation in Loveland’s Centerra development. It also operates a software-development office at 1900 15th St. in Boulder and a 19,000-square-foot distribution center at 3550 Frontier Ave. in Boulder.
The Broomfield delivery center would be what Amazon describes as a “final-mile” facility, which serves the last stop between larger regional distribution centers such as those in Thornton and Aurora and the drivers who deliver packages to end-users.
The facility will operate 24-hours per day with about 300 workers inside sorting packages and several hundred more drivers cycling through to load trucks and vans.
“I’m having a hard time with how close residents are to this 24-hour facility,” Councilwoman Sharon Tessier said, referencing homes built as close as 800 feet from the delivery center. “And I’m having a difficult time with whether Broomfield actually needs this. That area needs a break from 24-7 noise and traffic.”
Other Broomfield leaders also questioned whether the city needs hundreds of new jobs that only pay $15 to $18 per hour, particularly given ongoing struggles with housing affordability in the area.
Before ground can break, a final development plan will be drafted and reviewed by the Planning and Zoning Commission before ultimately going before the city council for approval. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-05/amazon-nixed-green-shipping-proposal-to-avoid-alienating-shoppers | Amazon Nixed 'Green' Shipping Proposal to Avoid Alienating ... | AMZN. AMAZON.COM INC. 130.15. USD. +5.32+4.26% · 1715063D. RAKUTEN
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4338200-amazon-measuring-free-cash-flow | Amazon: Measuring Free Cash Flow (NASDAQ:AMZN) | Amazon: Measuring Free Cash Flow. Apr. 17, 2020 10:38 AM ETAmazon.com, Inc.
(AMZN)39 Comments | Apr 17, 2020 | Seeking Alpha | Amazon: Measuring Free Cash Flow
Summary
- Calculating free cash flow (FCF) for growing technology companies such as Amazon requires some key adjustments.
- There are different methodologies that can be used to measure free cash flow – it is important to consider the merits of each one.
- FCF yield measurements allow us to infer how much of a company’s net worth resides in the terminal value.
In this article, I shall calculate Amazon’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) free cash flow yield and share a perspective on the company’s valuation. Free cash flow (FCF) is an important metric for investors and Amazon has always emphasised it in shareholder communications. Indeed, unlike many other companies, the cash flow statement is the first set of accounts shown in the annual report. As the starting point, we shall consider FCF for 2019 and extrapolate what this may look like for 2020.
Free cash flow to equity is calculated by taking the operating cash flow after interest and tax and deducting capital expenditure. According to the 2019 annual report, Amazon generated $38.5 billion of net cash from operating activities compared to $11.5 billion of net income. The main bridge between these two figures is depreciation and amortization, a non-cash charge which came to $21.8 billion. Amazon had $120bn of gross property and equipment at the end of 2019 of which $47bn had already been depreciated to date.
Measuring Stock-based Compensation
Stock-based compensation accounts for most of the balance at $6.8bn. Stock-based compensation is a feature among technology businesses and serves a great way to motivate employees. Share options either expire if the employee leaves before the option conversion date or they vest which allows the employee to accumulate shares to supplement their cash income. Stock-based compensation represents a true P&L charge and needs to be accounted for when considering free cash flow. Whilst there are many complex methodologies, it is important not to get too caught up in the minutiae. An acceptable approach would be to divide the free cash flow to equity by the diluted share count.
Evaluating Capital Expenditure
Not all of Amazon’s equipment and property are purchased outright using cash. Some expenditure is funded by leases. Since buying assets on a capital lease involves an upfront payment and payment of the balance over time, there is less of an immediate cash outflow. In 2019, Amazon invested $16.8bn in property and equipment and received back $4.1bn in sales and incentives. For all intents and purposes, we can consider the $4.1bn to be grants by the Federal Government or other foreign entities and on a net basis, capital expenditure totalled $12.7bn. Under financial activities, we can also see principal repayment of financial leases and financing obligations, which combined totalled $9.7bn.
Summing It Up
One simple way of calculating free cash flow would be to take the operating cash flow and deduct net property and equipment purchases and principal lease repayments.
There is an alternative measure whereby instead of deducting the principal lease payments, the value of the assets acquired under the leases replaces this amount. Since the value of the equipment acquired under finance leases was $12.9bn, this figure is used to replace the principal lease payment amount of $9.7bn. Additional deductions are required for principal repayments of property in all other finance leases and financing obligations. Using this metric provides for FCF of $12.5bn.
There is a final adjustment to be made, which is property and equipment acquired under build-to-suit leases, which totals $1.4bn in 2019. Build-to-suit leases are development or construction agreements which Amazon would have put in place with developers, most likely who it contracts to build out fulfillment centres. Taking this into account provides free cash flow in 2019 of $11.1bn.
By dividing the FCF by the diluted share count, we derive an FCF per share of $22.02. Based on the current stock price, this equates to an FCFe yield of 0.9%. In an ideal world, we would be able to disaggregate growth from maintenance capital investments by Amazon. This would allow us to determine the underlying free cash flow generation in a no-growth, steady-state mode. Unfortunately, this is not broken out by management.
Implications For Valuation
For 2020, let us assume FCF expands by 25% to $13.9bn and the share count increases by 5m. This would provide an FCF per share of $27.26 and a forward FCF yield of 1.1%. These calculations reveal just how much of Amazon’s valuation resides in its terminal value.
Let’s make a guesstimate that Amazon grows its FCF by 25% until 2025 and then the growth rate declines by 1% per annum until 2030 to end the decade with growth of 20%. Again, this is a guesstimate and we may be way off, but such is the nature of growth investing. Using similar calculations, we derive an FCF per diluted share of $220 by the end of the decade. If we were to capitalize these cash flows per share at a discount rate range of 4-6%, the stock would be worth $3,670-$5,504. This would equate to a compound rate of return of 4.3-8.6% per annum. These are robust but not prolific rates of return, though the upper range would be quite satisfactory and Amazon’s resilience as a business is a key factor to consider. Time will tell. In the meantime, we can adjust these figures over time as future earnings are reported.
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long AMZN. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (39)
For the last 5 Q's, the FCF for TTM is flat, at around 16 B. That's for 12 months. Not growing at all, even though sales are growing nicely. I know no other retailer like that. When sales are up that fast, FCF should soar, not stay flat. Even more, It will go down after Q2, since they lowered guidance.Now you see why I think assuming 30% growth, year after year, in FCF for the next 10 years , and reaching 150 b annually in 2030 is totally non realistic? Amazon FCF is going to grow very slowly from here, if at all. This tree may grow higher in sales, but will not give many more fruit from what it already does. I don't know how the stock price will react. It may as well keep going up, like it did until now, but the financial data is very simple. It shows a flat FCF, or even declining. That's why i said your assumptions are way over optimsitic.
And those three companies are mostly high margin, low Capex business, while Amzn is mostly low margin, high capex.How much will AMZN have to sell anually in 2030, in order to reach 150 B of FCF - after tax and all? Will it be the only company in the world? One thing you did miss are aquisitions. Part of the growth will probably come from them, but it consumes cash, Whole foods is an example, and not a very good one.
And the funny thing is that even using this highly optimistic forecast, you arrive to an expected annual return of 8.6% at best. But what if you are even slightly wrong, and that super growth won't take place? How much possible downside are you taking for a return of 8.6% at best case?I am realy waiting to see Q1 ER and the guidance forward . The market is very optimstic, but I think it's going to be so so.Someone here used the word religion in regard to his investment. I think this describes best the way the market is looking at it. You have to be a believer, because using conventional methods like forecasting FCF just can't explain the valuation, even under very optimistic assumptions. As long as there will be enough believers, the stock will hold and perform well. I can't argue with religious beliefs. But if the belief cracks for some reason, like slower growth or margin erosion, the down side is very big. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/news/2020/04/16/amazon-officially-opens-in-bessemer-jobs-still.html | Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) officially opens massive ... | Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN) is officially open in Bessemer, and the
company is still hiring for positions at the new fulfillment center. | Apr 16, 2020 | The Business Journals | Request unsuccessful. Incapsula incident ID: 1340000840242495608-976127044334916877 | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/18/coronavirus-market-rally-where-to-invest-10000-now.aspx | Coronavirus Market Rally: Where to Invest $10,000 Right Now | Perhaps no company is better positioned to capitalize on the current
environment than Amazon.com (AMZN -1.27%). With many traditional
brick-and-mortar... | Apr 18, 2020 | The Motley Fool | COVID-19 is a fearsome and relentless enemy. The disease caused by the novel coronavirus has infected more than 2.2 million people worldwide, and nearly 150,000 have died. Efforts to combat the pandemic are having severe economic ramifications, including millions of job losses and devastating damage to countless businesses.
Yet hope remains.
An army of doctors, scientists, and researchers around the world are working tirelessly to find a cure. Optimism is growing that an effective treatment for COVID-19 will be found soon. And the financial markets have begun to recoup their losses as investors look ahead to an eventual economic recovery.
So now could be a good time to consider investing some money in the stock market. Even if the markets pull back again, investing in great businesses tends to be a very wise and profitable decision, particularly over the long term.
If you're fortunate enough to have $10,000 to invest, here are three stocks that can help you grow your money into a fortune.
1. Amazon
Perhaps no company is better positioned to capitalize on the current environment than Amazon.com (AMZN -0.63%). With many traditional brick-and-mortar retailers forced to close their stores due to social distancing directives, the online retail giant has served as a lifeline for people in need of food and other vital supplies. Amazon, in turn, is enjoying booming sales during the COVID-19 crisis.
Moreover, many people are shopping on its website for the first time. Once they experience Amazon's incredible selection of goods, low prices, and convenient delivery options, these new online shoppers are likely to remain loyal customers.
2. Microsoft
Microsoft (MSFT -1.38%) is a valuable partner for the countless businesses now forced to manage their workforces remotely. Its Azure infrastructure platform powers many businesses' cloud-based operations. Additionally, Microsoft's Office 365 applications -- which include cloud-based versions of its popular Word and Office software -- make it easier for people to work from home.
Importantly, with more than $60 billion in net cash on its fortress-like balance sheet, Microsoft has the financial strength to weather even a severe coronavirus-driven recession. The technology titan also generates bountiful cash flow, including over $10 billion in cash from operations in the second quarter alone. Microsoft is committed to passing a sizable portion of this cash on to investors via a steadily rising dividend, which currently yields 1.1%.
3. Salesforce
Software giant Salesforce.com (CRM -1.50%) is enjoying higher demand for its digital transformation services, and that's likely to continue after the pandemic as well as more businesses seek to transition their operations to the cloud to better enable remote work and a more broadly distributed workforce.
In addition to being the global leader in customer relationship management software, Salesforce also provides best-in-class tools that allow businesses to aggregate and analyze data from a wide variety of sources. Global spending on services that enable the digitization of business products and practices will reach an astounding $2.3 trillion by 2023, according to market research firm IDC. This massive market offers plenty of room for expansion, even for a $140 billion enterprise like Salesforce. Investors who buy shares today should be well rewarded as this software star fulfills its tremendous long-term growth potential. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://www.ccn.com/mackenzie-bezos-made-a-divorce-settlement-choice-thats-earning-her-billions/ | MacKenzie Bezos Made a Divorce Settlement Choice That's ... | As Jeff Bezos works hard to grow Amazon, MacKenzie Bezos is reaping the
benefits. Her decision to keep AMZN made her the world's 17th richest
person. | Apr 19, 2020 | CCN.com | As Jeff Bezos works hard to grow Amazon, MacKenzie Bezos is reaping the benefits. Her decision to keep AMZN made her the world's 17th richest person.
It’s no secret that during this pandemic the rich are getting richer. The richest of them all, Jeff Bezos, is making big money as more people rely on Amazon to service their needs while stuck at home. With Amazon’s stock printing fresh all-time highs, the chief executive of the e-commerce giant grew his net worth by $24 billion.
Quietly in the background, Jeff’S ex-wife MacKenzie Bezos is also raking billions. Her shrewd choice last year during the couple’s divorce settlement is paying off big time.
Prior to the divorce settlement, MacKenzie had interests in daily newspaper The Washington Post, space exploration company Blue Origin, and of course tech titan Amazon. MacKenzie was “happy” to give Jeff her stake in The Washington Post and Blue Origin. In return, she received 25% of the couple’s shares in Amazon (AMZN).
MacKenzie’s decision set the stage for her ownership of 19.7 million Amazon shares. At the time of the transfer, MacKenzie Bezos was worth $38.3 billion, which was good enough to land the 22nd spot on the Bloomberg Billionaire Index.
A lot has changed since, and MacKenzie’s clever choice is paying huge dividends.
MacKenzie Bezos is now the 17th richest person on the planet. Amazon’s tremendous gains over the last few weeks have allowed her to exceed the net worth of some of the world’s biggest tycoons. As AMZN climbed to an all-time high of $2,461, MacKenzie’s net worth surged to $47.7 billion.
Bloomberg reports that MacKenzie’s total net worth grew by $10.6 billion year-to-date. She surpassed Chinese business magnate and Tencent CEO Pony Ma, Indian oil mogul Mukesh Ambani and former Alibaba chairman Jack Ma.
MacKenzie Bezos’s fortunes would have changed if she chose to diversify and retained stakes in The Washington Post and Blue Origin. But she most likely knew which of Jeff’s companies would make the most money. She went all-in on Amazon and now her calculated gamble is paying off to the tune of billions of dollars.
The rich seem to be getting a lot richer during the coronavirus pandemic. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://observer.com/2020/04/selah-and-the-spades-movie-review-amazon-prime-video/ | Amazon’s ‘Selah and the Spades’ Does Not Dig Deep | ... independent film that premiered at Sundance last year and became
available to stream into our crowded hovels Friday, April 17 via Amazon
(AMZN) Prime. | Apr 17, 2020 | Observer | I have always had a thing for crime movies. I devour them with much the same rapt attention with which my teenage daughter hoovers up how-to tutorials on Instagram: I am fascinated with the process. Which is not to say that The Asphalt Jungle will lead me to a lifetime of jewelry store heists any more than a Tasty video will lead my kid to whip up a four-layer dinner pie. The deep satisfaction comes from seeing how all the pieces fit together and what each part of the puzzle reveals about both the characters and the story.
So it was with great anticipation that I streamed Selah and the Spades, a stylish independent film that premiered at Sundance last year and became available to stream into our crowded hovels Friday, April 17 via Amazon (AMZN) Prime. A different take on the crime thriller, this debut film from writer-director Tayarisha Poe takes place in a high-priced boarding school outside Philadelphia and focuses on Lovie Simone’s Selah, a straight-A student who also runs one of the school’s semi-criminal factions with a Machiavellian efficiency.
SEE ALSO: The Getty Museum Has Made 70,000 Artworks Available to Use in ‘Animal Crossing’
Each faction—there are five—runs a different aspect of illicit life on campus: the Bobbys throw illegal after-hours parties in basements or the woods; the Skins are rogue teachers’ pets who help others cheat; the Prefects smooth things over with the administration. The film’s titular clique run drugs, alcohol and other outlawed substances, which they store in a treasure chest that lights up from the inside like the briefcase in Pulp Fiction. The factions hold confabs in the fields around campus, where they bicker indistinctly around a large oak table while Selah commands things while sitting on a Petey Greene-style wicker throne.
Being a process-oriented guy (especially when concerning crime movies), I couldn’t help but wonder: which faction is in charge of hauling all that cool gangster furniture out to the middle of the field? Where do they store it after their meetings adjourn?
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SELAH AND THE SPADES ★1/2
The answer, of course, is not a faction at all but the film’s precociously gifted art department. Indeed, all of the craft elements of Poe’s film—most notably Jomo Fray’s sharply framed cinematography and the atmospheric sound design—are tended to carefully. Rather than reinforce the film’s underlying themes or service the story in any satisfying way, the film’s outsized production values largely register as style for style’s sake.
Shockingly little feels truly at stake here. A vague threat of expulsion hovers over the kids’ nefarious dealings—a consequence of one of these students ratting out their fellow ne’er-do-wells to the headmaster, played with a bemused detachment by Grey’s Anatomy heartthrob Jesse Williams. Gina Torres has a pair of scenes as Selah’s mother, a taskmaster who berates her daughter for getting less than 100 on a science test. (She has the indignity of grinding the proceedings to a halt by telling Selah the oft-repeated fable of the scorpion and the frog.) But for the most part, this adult nattering registers as no more consequential then the wah-wahs of parents and teachers in Peanuts specials.
The often-stilted dialogue of the teenage protagonists doesn’t fare much better. As a result, many of the performances from the seemingly talented cast come off as stiff and stagey. Jharrel Jerome, so memorable as the falsely accused Korey Wise in Ava DuVernay’s When They See Us, never quite pins down what drives Maxxie, Selah’s bookkeeper and chief enforcer, to be so devoted to her. The main conflict comes with the introduction of Paloma (Celeste O’Connor), an underclassman whom Selah mentors even as she floats between factions, but there is little electricity generated by their relationship.
Like many of the more monied films that churn through the Hollywood system, Selah and the Spades pays lip service to the idea of women’s empowerment. The image of the diminutive Lovie Simone, who evinces some of the steely resolve of gymnast Simone Biles, posing like a latter day Corleone in the focus of the film’s marketing. She says in voiceover that she is on the cheer squad because it allows her agency in how she dresses and conducts herself, but we only see this idea in action in a cursory way. One suspects that the real reason she is on the team is more surface-level: she looks really cool wearing the uniform while conducting her gangster-y dealings.
Amazon made it clear when it picked up Selah and the Spades that is was doing so to score an IP in addition to making a traditional acquisition. (They are already in the process of developing a Selah original series.) And maybe a slow burn multi-hour format, where characters who come off as perfunctory here can be more deeply explored, is the best use of its setting and ideas. As currently constituted, Selah and the Spades comes off as little more than a artfully rendered location and a cool concept that is desperately in search of a story to tell that’s as compelling as its trappings. | AMZN | 129.11 |
https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/microsoft-fends-off-apple-remains-most-valuable-us-company | Microsoft fends off Apple, remains most valuable US company | MSFT, MICROSOFT CORP. 333.56, -4.49, -1.33%. AAPL, APPLE INC. 183.96,
-1.05, -0.57%. AMZN, AMAZON.COM INC. 124.83, -0.95, -0.76%. | Feb 4, 2019 | Fox Business | Microsoft fends off Apple, remains most valuable US company
Microsoft retained its title as the most valuable publicly traded U.S. company on Monday despite a surge in Apple shares that briefly saw the iPhone maker overtake its tech rival during the trading session.
|Ticker||Security||Last||Change||Change %|
|MSFT||MICROSOFT CORP.||335.01||-4.70||-1.38%|
|AAPL||APPLE INC.||186.68||-0.32||-0.17%|
|AMZN||AMAZON.COM INC.||129.27||-0.88||-0.68%|
|GOOGL||ALPHABET INC.||122.34||-0.81||-0.66%|
|BRK.B||BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.||335.33||-1.61||-0.48%|
Microsoft closed with a market capitalization of $811.3 billion after shares rose nearly 3 percent in trading on Monday, according to FactSet data. Apple finished the day in second place with a valuation of $807.5 billion.
Apple shares are up more than 10 percent since last week, when the company reported first-quarter results that were stronger than Wall Street expected. The company has been under pressure in recent months after it warned that revenue would fall short of projections amid slowing demand for iPhones and economic factors in emerging markets, especially China. Apple briefly overtook Microsoft before giving back the lead.
E-commerce giant Amazon closed as Wall Street’s third-most valuable company, with a market cap of $802.3 billion. Shares have fallen in recent days after Amazon provided soft first-quarter revenue guidance, even as the company reported more than $200 billion in revenue in fiscal 2018.
Google parent Alphabet, which reported earnings on Monday, ranked fourth with a valuation of $790.8 billion. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway rounded out the top five with a $512.9 billion valuation for its Class B stock.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX BUSINESS APP
Microsoft, Apple and Amazon have battled for the top spot in recent months amid overall pressure on tech stocks. U.S. equities markets were up slightly in trading Monday. | MSFT | 334.36 |
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4237892-apple-is-market-big-enough | Apple: Is Any Market Big Enough? (NASDAQ:AAPL) | 04, 2019 1:04 PM ETApple Inc. (AAPL)MSFT52 Comments 8 Likes. Keyanoush
Razavidinani profile picture. Keyanoush Razavidinani. 2.22K Followers. | Feb 4, 2019 | Seeking Alpha | Apple: Is Any Market Big Enough?
Summary
- Having $240 billion in cash doesn't mean that they can turn that money into profitable growth.
- A quick view of Apple's business segments and their fundamentals show that they lost some of their premium appeal over the years.
- Let us talk about two scenarios, translate one of them into numbers and analyze the value per share depending on the assumptions we made.
Introduction
When Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) hit the $1 trillion level at the end of 2018, I showed my skepticism toward a few of my colleagues and recommended to either hedge their investment by buying an appropriate short or by taking in some of their profits. I based my skepticism on a historical high P/E-ratio, diverging top-line and bottom-line growth, and the recent flood of new premium smartphone and laptop devices.
Source: www.news.com.au
Since the peak in 2018 Apple's share price plummeted to approximately $750 billion. The main concern that investors, me including, have is that Apple has been unable to diversify its business sufficiently and there's no counterbalance to their iPhone segment. Apple's valuation metrics don't look bad in a historical comparison, but investors also should keep an eye on their overall business performance.
In this article, we will critically examine two scenarios of how Apple's business will continue to develop depending on the actions they are going to take. The first scenario assumes stagnating product sales and fast accelerating service revenue of 20% YoY and how it will influence revenue growth and share price. The second scenario analyzes an opportunity Apple currently has but is not fully exploiting.
Apple's Business Segments
The following section is a quick summary of Apple's business segments and their influence on top-line growth. For experienced Apple investors, I would recommend jumping to the "Fundamental Analysis."
Source: Apple Annual Report 2011-2018
In the last seven years, Apple's main growth engine has been the iPhone as one can see in the graph above. iPhone sales increased drastically from $45 billion in 2011 to $165 billion in 2018 - that's 20% YoY growth! The second biggest business segment is "Services" with sales of nearly $40 billion in 2018.
In 2018 the dependency of Apple's growth to iPhone sales was 67%. For 2017, 2016, and 2015 the dependencies were 28%, 63%, and 91%, respectively. For the years before 2015, the dependency was only between 50% and 55%. The trend over the last seven years has been that iPhone sales contribution to overall growth increased from 50% in 2012 to 67% in 2018.
Source: Apple Annual Reports 2011-2018
The unit sales strengthen our observation. iPhone unit sales increased from 70 million in 2011 to approximately 220 million in 2018. iPad unit sales increased slightly from 2011 and Mac sales stayed pretty much flat. The graph of the iPhone unit sales looks like it reached saturation in 2017/2018 and I can think of a few reasons that iPhone sales will stagnate or even decrease in the next few years.
Fundamental Analysis
We will analyze Apple's numbers and take a look at key ratios and how they evolved over the last 5-7 years.
Source: Apple Annual Report 2012-2018
Next, to the absolute sales number, we have to look at the profitability ratios.
Source: Apple Annual Reports 2012-2018
Revenue increased with a CAGR of 7.85%, but Apple's margins weakened over the last few years. The increase of Apple's net margin in 2018 came from the tax reduction and did not result from improved operating performance.
Apple was able to increase their operating margin from about 10% in 2006 to approximately 35% in mid 2012, but from that peak in 2012, the operating margin has been decreasing to a current level of 26.7%.
Source: Apple Annual Reports
Apple is less and less able to provide a good return on their increasing assets. Assets consist of inventories, PP&E, and other non-current assets. The compounded annual growth rates of their PP&E is 16% while their compounded annual growth rate of their net income is only 5.21% in the same time frame. Return on asset (RoA) decreased from 125% in 2013 to 90% in 2018. RoA shows that even if Apple is investing in their business, the return that they can get on those assets is decreasing with time.
Source: Apple Annual Reports and Author's Calculations
The current ratio tells us if a company can pay off its short-term obligations and in the case of Apple that should be no problem. The interesting point is that the current ratio decreased over the last seven years, which means that their liabilities increased faster than their assets. Apple's total liabilities increased with 21% CAGR and their total assets increased by 10% CAGR. In the time of ultra-low interest rates, it makes sense to finance their business with cheap long-term debt instead of new equity.
This finding translates into their return on equity and gearing ratio. Apple returned $238 billion in the last six years to shareholders by buying back their common stock. In the same time frame, they paid $29 billion in the form of dividends to their shareholders. The gearing ratio (financial leverage) increased from 13% in 2013 to 107% in 2018. Their emphasis to finance their business with debt has diluted their return on equity, which rose from 30% in 2013 to 56% in 2018.
Source: Apple Annual Report
Apple reduced outstanding shares by nearly 24% in the last seven years, which is quite impressive considering that they are one of the most valuable companies in the world. In the same time frame, Microsoft (MSFT) only bought back 8.4% of shares. Buying back tremendous amounts of shares can be explained in various ways. From doing shareholders a favor because the business is running great to having no practical means to expand the business or inflating its valuation metrics to boost the share price.
Scenario Analysis
Before we get to the different scenarios let us sum up all the things we learned so far from our observations of Apple's business:
- iPhone sales make up 63% of total revenue.
- Services correspond with iPhone sales and can be only partially accounted for as an independent business segment.
- Sales of Apple's Mac and iPad stagnated or increased only minimally over the last seven years, contributing to only 17% of Apple's revenue in 2018.
- Apple has not been able to diversify its business away from the iPhone.
- Strong competition in the premium smartphone market requires Apple to increase marketing and sales efforts.
- Technological advances in smartphones have no substantial effect on daily smartphone usage anymore.
- Strong competition in the premium laptop segment with a comparable build and hardware quality.
- Apple is building its service segment with the possible intentions to grab a considerable market share in the content delivery industry or healthcare industry.
- Apple's HomeKit business contains their entry to the IoT market and their expertise in user experience, and device connectivity may be their lever to grab a substantial market share.
Scenario 1 - iPhone business stagnates - Service business increases 20% YoY
Let us get to our first scenario where we assume that iPhone sales will continue to stagnate while service revenue will increase 20% YoY for the next five years.
Source: Authors Calculations
If service revenue increases and hardware revenue decreases, I will tilt the operating margins for the estimated years in favor of Apple and use an operating margin of 28.5%, which is slightly above the five-year average.
Source: Author's Calculations
These are our numbers for the projected five-year time frame. The revenue growth rate is increasing every year because we used 20% YoY growth of service revenues. The influence of services in the first three years is well below 4% on total revenue and only after the fifth year service revenue will improve total revenue by a bit over 5%. Using five-year averages to calculate the change in working capital and adjustments in non-cash charges, we get our unlevered free cash flow.
Source: Author's Calculations
Now, all that's left for our first scenario are market capitalization, weighted average cost of capital, and the EBITDA-multiple.
Source: Author's Calculations
Using the terminal EBITDA multiple-method and some variations in the WACC and five different multiples, we can create an array of possible values for our Apple shares:
The results of the Scenario 1 analysis are sobering, with a current value per share of $166 there's minimal upside potential calculated into the shares. We used a very favorable outcome for Apple's service revenue with 20% YoY growth while the Apple product segment is just stagnating. To me, these two segments correlate, and Apple won't be able to accomplish a YoY of 20% with stagnating or deteriorating product sales.
Scenario 2 - Apple in the IoT business
After reading through Apple news and analysis all around the company there seem to be a lot of theories about the next "big thing" that Apple will capture. The main opportunities each one of us will read about when searching for Apple are entertainment or content, healthcare, and developing new pricing strategies in emerging markets to capture market share. In the second scenario, I want to introduce a new possibility for Apple based on the things that they are good at.
Internet of Things. These three words are a few of the most widely discussed words of the past ten years, and they appear daily in the news. Apple's strength lays not only in the great hardware they create but also the software that runs flawlessly on the hardware, the device interconnectivity, and ease of use.
An Example:
I recently switched from a Mac back to a Windows-PC, and I immediately realized that even if the hardware is 10 times better, the whole experience on the Windows machine is not as smooth as on the Mac. Just the experience of scrolling in my Google Chrome browser on my Windows machine feels worse than on my old Mac, and that was a 2011 MacBook Air with 4 GB ram. I connected a Microsoft Arc mouse to my Windows Laptop and got quite frustrated because it just doesn't feel and connect as smooth as the Apple Magic mouse that I used on my Mac. Then I wanted to connect some Bluetooth earphones to my laptop and after a while disconnect them from my laptop and reconnect them to my smartphone. This was rather frustrating because my laptop wanted to reconnect to the earphones and I had to turn off the Bluetooth of my laptop.
I think you got my point. I'm not trying to badmouth Windows machines. I'm even using one and still quite happy about the switch from Apple to Windows, based on other reasons. What I wanted to highlight is the specific strength of Apple. Smooth connectivity and user experience. I think that in the next few years this strength of Apple will play a major role for IoT devices and I also believe that Apple can leverage their strength and enter a whole new business segment with their already strong ecosystem.
If Apple starts to leverage their expertise on connectivity and user experience by marketing it stronger to manufacturers and developers they could leverage their strengths, improve their sales in "remote control" products like the iPad, and create a whole new business segment.
Apple already is offering developers an MFi licensing program that enables others to create products that were specially made for iPad, iPhone (that's where the MFi comes from) but I don't see the drive to use this strength and build on top of that. Apple might not be able to leverage this segment well enough to the extent necessary to make an impact on revenue and profitability. Apple can undoubtedly grow their sales, but that's not enough in the long term. To leverage the IoT business segment they have to intelligently open up their ecosystem and invest into the right places with the right people.
Conclusion
A lot of times, people don't know what they want until you show it to them.
- Steve Jobs -
I like this quote because it's one of the pillars on which Steve Jobs built the success of Apple. I recently read a lot of articles that explain how Apple should go with the flow, invest into growth like content delivery or the healthcare industry or change pricing to capture emerging markets. But that's not Apple. The founders of Apple created a culture that does not need to go with the flow. They know that it takes time until customers appreciate the simple things and I think that they should continue to build on that culture.
In the future, I don't think that we will use smartphones like they are today but shift to a combination of wearables like the Apple Watch together with earphones like the AirPods for our day-to-day use. I think Apple is well-positioned to become a major provider for those wearables, but they have to put more emphasis on that product line and Siri to make it work, more natural, and easy to use.
Apple, at its current valuation and its current business model, is not a buy. On a scale from 0 to 10 where 10 is definite buy recommendation and 0 a definite sell recommendation, I would value Apple's shares as 3.5. I base this valuation on too much dependency on iPhone sales and weak Mac and iPad sales. Apple is missing something, and as long as I don't see a clear idea of what the executives and managers are trying to accomplish I won't feel comfortable to buy shares as they are currently valued.
I always welcome constructive criticism and open discussions. Please feel free to comment or PM me about my calculations and/or sources that I use in my articles.
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Comments (52)
2. Apple has not lost their premium appeal. We don’t know how many iPhone units they sold last quarter but several tracking companies have estimated that they sold 66-72 million units last quarter, based on activation figures, despite a slump in China sales due to sociopolitical factors. I suspect that the reason for the 15% decline global iPhone revenues is because they have been selling more old iPhone models (6S, 7, and 8’s), as well as refurbished units. This reduced average sales prices. Apple tried a new sales strategy in Q1’19, to increase market share, by putting older models and refurbished phones on sale. They started by introducing the new and most expensive models (XS, XSM) first, then the less expensive new model (XR), and then the older models (6S, 7, 8), and then the refurbished older models. While this sold more units, it brought in less revenues and competed with new Apple iPhones. I suspect that this was a sales strategy advocated by Angela Ahrendt and one of the reasons why she is leaving Apple.
3. It is not true that Apple is unable to provide an increasing return on their increasing assets. They have been making more and more money every year. However, expectations for Apple to grow at >20% in all its segments are unrealistic. All their new products are growing at annual double digit percentage increase, i.e. Watch, AirPods, Homepods, and Services. Until this past quarter, their iPhone revenues have been growing at 15% or higher rates. I don’t know why everybody is harping about unit sales. Revenue increase is the only thing that matters and Q1’19 was the first year in a decade where Apple has had a revenue decline. A careful look at that decline shows that it was mostly (80%) due to a slump in China sales.The repeated claims that Apple has no room to grow are simply not true. In emerging markets, there is plenty of room for growth. Apple also can take market share from Android me-too smartphones made by Korean and Chinese companies. Apple dominates the watch market, selling more watches than Switzerland, and making more profit from their Watches than all the watch companies combined. Apple’s annual revenue growth rate for wearables exceeds 30%.Times are a’changing, however. The US/China trade war now poses a substantial risk to Apple’s manufacturing strategy. Apple must distribute and reduce that risk. Somehow, Apple dodged the bullets for over a year and was lucky that its products were not subject to tariffs in the United States or China. To be fair, this risk was not apparent 2 years ago. Who could have believed back then that we would have a president that would start a unilateral trade war with all our trading partners around the world, imposing 25% tariffs on steel, electronic, and other products? Until these risks are mitigated, investors are unlikely to push Apple stock prices back to $230 in the next 2 quarters. But eventually Apple do so. When Apple returns, it will do so with vengeance. No company in the world or coming decades will be able to challenge Apple’s pre-eminent position as the most profitable computer, smartphone, smartwatch, earphone, and smart speaker maker. Over the long term, Apple stocks will increase more than the other darlings of Wall Street (Amazon, Google, Facebook).The privacy issues of internet will grow. Apple is the only company to address both privacy and security with powerful combination of hardware and software solutions that no other manufacturer has. The secure enclave is Tim Cook’s major contribution to Apple besides supply chain management. Lack of privacy is in the DNA of Android just as security and privacy is in the DNA of Apple products. A zebra can’t change its stripes, just hide them. The business model of Google and Facebook is invasion of people’s privacy and selling their private information. They don’t know how to do it any other way. Their first goal is to find out information about their clients. To make money, they must sell that information. That information will be misused and abused, not just by Google but by the companies and governments they sell that the information to. I predict that the privacy issue will cause the downfall of Android. Apple is thus a good long term buy. People who have Apple stock should hold them. People who want to buy Apple stock should buy on stock dips. The time to buy was two weeks ago when Apple shares were 142. At 172, the time to buy has passed. The next time to buy is just before the Trump administration announces a US/China trade deal. The next time after that is a court victory over Qualcomm. By the way, Apple won a victory this week because the judge decided that Qualcomm cannot seek damages for Apple activities before the court case.
Thank you for your detailed comment. Let me try to comment appropriately:
1. What I tried to say with the cash pile is that the amount of cash they had and have on hand did not show any major changes. Sure, they are returning a lot to investors and reinvesting tons of money into their company but when you are the size of Apple what should you or can you invest in to increase your $250billion revenue to $300billion or $350 billion? What I tried to stress is that this undertaking is not an easy one.
2. Hmm maybe we just have different opinions on the premium appeal but let me try to explain what I mean. Here I compare Apple directly with their competitors who are creating products that come very close to Apple's workmanship. Sure, there is the software that distinguishes the iPhone from their competitors, and I am not trying to reduce the benefit of their iOS against Android (great trash management, durable, crash resistant...). Apple's competitors recreated a lot of their build quality, and that is visible now.
3. In comparison to the consumer electronics industry, Apple is far ahead when it comes to return on assets. What I tried to emphasize is that their return on assets is decreasing which is visible in the graph provided and an indication that they continuous investments into their business are not as fruitful as in the past. I agree to a few of your other comments like Apple's emphasis on privacy and that their business model is about great products and not the data of their customers. I think that will a key changer in the future when people become more aware of their personal data.
I would buy their stock again if I see a good entry point because if anything, their stock will at least cover inflation and grant the investor security in their portfolio and continue to grow at a modest rate.
All streaming services offer everything, I see little differentiation between the likes of Spotify, Amazon and Apple Music, this will limit margins and moat for Apple. - Video: Apple will enter this in CY2019 in a major revamp as we all know (add own content). However, the long-term economics of NFLX show that this is expensive and may not bring the margins Apple shareholders are accustomed too - also, Apple's services are not as device-agnostic as those of NFLX, this will limit growth beyond the Apple eco-system.- Gaming. Apple could launch a streaming gaming service (as Sony and others did years ago), but once again the competition is already there...
I can increase the margins for the 4th and 5th year and update the DCF analysis. I would post the results here in the results if you are interested.
If desired I can increase the margins for those years and update the projected share price value here in the comments.
2. Borrowing to fund share buybacks (that are accretive to EPS), because their was no foreign money repatriation conclusion yet.
3. They wanted to reward shareholders and buy the stock back cheap, both of which they did.There is no Issue having $100 Billion in debt, when you also make $55-60 Billion per year in net profit, and $230 Billion in cash. Their debt shouldn't be mischaracterized. | MSFT | 334.36 |
https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/these-traditional-jobs-disappear-with-ai-former-microsoft-executive | These traditional jobs disappear with AI: Former Microsoft executive | MSFT, MICROSOFT CORP. 338.05, -4.28, -1.25%. MORE FROM FOXBUSINESS.COM.
ROBOTS AT WORK: LIST OF COMPANIES ALREADY USING THEM. | Feb 4, 2019 | Fox Business | These traditional jobs disappear with AI: Former Microsoft executive
With more artificial intelligence (AI) comes the threat of more human jobs being replaced by technology. Microsoft COO Bob Herbold said the simplest and easiest jobs are the first to go.
“I think the low-hanging fruit is what will really pay for artificial intelligence,” Herbold told FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo on Monday. "You hear so many stories where in fact we are going to duplicate the human mind and the like — no that’s not where the real impact is."
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|MSFT||MICROSOFT CORP.||335.01||-4.70||-1.38%|
Although the implementation of AI will impact the entire labor force, more blue- and white-collar jobs may begin to disappear, according to former president of Google China and current CEO of Sinocation Ventures, Kai-Fu Lee.
“Almost all the jobs will change,” he told Bartiromo on “Sunday Morning Futures.” It’s just a tool that can, in one domain, take a lot of data and make very smart decisions, better than people. So the more the routine job, the more AI will take over.”
In Herbold's opinion Lee is correct in saying that the standard kind of jobs requiring minimal training and skills should brace for impact, and he added that it would also profoundly change the U.S. manufacturing industry.
“It’s going to be quite significant and in fact it is already significant but it will continue to grow,” he said. “And you know we talk about bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. and the like — it’s not going to be like the old days.”
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX BUSINESS APP
Some companies have already begun implementing innovation and technology into their workforce.
Walmart said in December that it plans to deploy hundreds of robot janitors to clean stores.
E-commerce giant Amazon reportedly began testing cashierless checkout technology at bigger stores.
And as reported by FOX Business, HSBC’s flagship branch in New York City hired Pepper the robot to help greet and inform customers.
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|WMT||WALMART INC.||155.44||-0.33||-0.21%|
|AMZN||AMAZON.COM INC.||129.27||-0.88||-0.68%|
|HSBC||HSBC HOLDINGS PLC||38.23||-0.47||-1.21%| | MSFT | 334.36 |
https://www.onmsft.com/how-to/how-to-check-if-youre-running-32-bit-or-64-bit-windows-10-and-why-you-should-care/ | How to check if you're running 32-bit or 64-bit Windows 10 ... | Under “System type,” you'll be told the architecture type of your Windows
installation, as well as that of your underlying hardware. If you see
“64-bit... | Feb 1, 2019 | OnMSFT.com | Checking whether you’ve got 32-bit or 64-bit Windows installed isn’t tricky. Knowing which you’ve got can be important when making decisions about apps and hardware, although you shouldn’t need to worry too much when buying a new device today.
To find out what you’ve got on your current PC, open the Settings app (press the Win+I keyboard shortcut to get there from whatever you were doing). Click the “System” category and scroll down the left navigation menu to the “About” page.
On this screen, scroll to the “Device specifications” header. Under “System type,” you’ll be told the architecture type of your Windows installation, as well as that of your underlying hardware. If you see “64-bit operating system,” you’ve got 64-bit Windows installed.
If you see “32-bit operating system,” look also at the processor type which is displayed. If you see “x64-based processor,” your device should be capable of running 64-bit Windows. Although most new devices now come with 64-bit Windows, some products – especially low-end ones with less than 4GB of RAM – still ship with a 32-bit installation, even though their processors often are 64-bit compatible.
If you have a 64-bit processor with a 32-bit Windows install, you may be able to install 64-bit Windows. However, moving from 32-bit to 64-bit requires a complete reinstallation. You’ll need to make a backup first and be prepared to reinstall all your current apps on your new system.
You should also research if there’s any other issues which may prevent you from running 64-bit Windows. For example, some devices may not have 64-bit drivers available, while others could ship with 32-bit bootloaders – even if the processor is 64-bit compatible.
Assuming your device will run with 64-bit Windows, there’s several reasons why you should upgrade. The principal benefit of a 64-bit operating system is support for vastly more memory. 32-bit systems can only use 4GB of RAM, and Windows allocates a maximum of 2GB of that to each application. For many modern apps such as photo and video editors, 2GB simply isn’t enough.
64-bit Windows 10 ups the maximum memory cap to 128GB for the Home edition and 2TB for Pro customers, while removing limitations on how much each app can use. 64-bit operation also results in more efficient memory allocation, which further increases the performance of your system. Finally, 64-bit Windows features more advanced security protections, including safeguards around device drivers and kernel exploits.
Next time you buy a new device, it’ll almost certainly be with 64-bit Windows. If you’ve currently got a 32-bit PC which can be upgraded, you may want to consider making the switch if you use a lot of memory-intensive applications. Even if you have less than 4GB of RAM in your system, the efficiency and allocation improvements with 64-bit Windows mean you’ll still see some benefits. | MSFT | 334.36 |
https://www.onmsft.com/news/skype-insider-app-picks-up-personalized-emoticons-and-improved-mobile-call-experience/ | Skype Insider app picks up personalized emoticons and ... | The first one are personalized emoticons, which let you change skin tone on
select emojis or replace the basic Skype yellow emoji with other
characters. Emojis... | Feb 1, 2019 | OnMSFT.com | Microsoft has started testing two new features with Skype Insiders on desktop and mobile this week. The first one are personalized emoticons, which let you change skin tone on select emojis or replace the basic Skype yellow emoji with other characters.
Emojis that can be personalized have a little grey dot next to them, and you can right click or do a long press on them to displayy other characters or skin tones.
The second new feature available in the version 8.38.76.134 of the app is an improved mobile call experience. When you’re in a voice call on iOS and Android, it’s now possible to hide or bring back the call controls with a single tap. “This makes having a video call on the go as close an experience to the ones you have on your desktop or laptop – minimal distractions and a clear view of everyone on the call with you”, the team explained.
During video calls, a “…” menu has also been added on the bottom right corner to provide quick access to call recording, subtitles, and other features. The Skype team has also moved the speaker and audio device button to the top right corner of the screen, right above your own video preview which has been been slightly bigger in this update.
All these new features should roll out to all Skype users over the coming weeks, but you can download this latest beta version on your platform of choice from the Skype Insider website. | MSFT | 334.36 |
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/let-s-unpack-what-just-happened-in-tuesday-s-rally-15229942 | Let's Unpack Tuesday's Rally -- and Some Parabolic Moves | But MSFT is up about 13% in a week. To me this is what the Tesla chart
looked like a few weeks ago. I think they are very different companies, but
I... | Feb 5, 2020 | RealMoney | Well, at least we can say it was a relatively interesting day in the market.
Breadth improved, but it wasn't as good as it should have been with the S&P 500 up nearly 50 and the Russell 2000 joining the fray. But it was the best breadth we've seen in weeks. It wasn't enough to turn the McClellan Summation Index from down to up. That would require another day of really good breadth.
Aside from that, there wasn't much to note statistically. What we did see though, sentiment-wise is as we expected, the Investor's Intelligence bulls backed off even more. They are now at 47.6%. Two weeks ago they were kissing 60%, so there has been quite a turn in sentiment. The last time the bulls were this low was October. They were just under 45% in August. I put this on the positive side of the ledger.
Sticking with sentiment, I want to note that the Daily Sentiment Indicator (DSI) for the Volatility Index (VIX.X) is back at 15. If we get a few more days up that is likely going to fall under 10, which might just give us another push down. Remember, up and down is my expectation. So far all we've gotten is the up from the oversold condition.
Clearly, the chatter was all about Tesla TSLA once again. As I said before, I won't know when the end is, but a few weeks ago, in mid-January when the stock ran from $500 to $600 (blue arrow on the chart) I said I thought the stock was getting into a parabolic move. You might recall I compared it to Apple (AAPL) , which folks were convinced had gone parabolic but I disagreed. Tesla I thought was getting there. It has obviously since exploded into a parabolic move.
It might be hard for you to imagine, but that 20% move in a week in Tesla is obviously more explosive than Microsoft's (MSFT) has been over the last week. But MSFT is up about 13% in a week. To me this is what the Tesla chart looked like a few weeks ago.
I think they are very different companies, but I promised to report to you if I saw other stocks starting to move like this was 1999 and Microsoft is verging on it. Remember it hasn't done anything wrong -- that uptrend is very much intact -- but I am on the lookout for charts that have a nice up-sloping pattern and then all of a sudden start to go vertical. | MSFT | 334.36 |
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/linkedin-ceo-jeff-weiner-step-170929012.html | LinkedIn CEO Jeff Weiner to step down | Head of product Ryan Roslansky will take over as CEO of Microsoft Corp's
<MSFT.O> LinkedIn, Weiner said in a post
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/its-time-my-... | Feb 5, 2020 | Yahoo Finance | LinkedIn CEO Jeff Weiner to step down
(Reuters) - Professional networking platform LinkedIn's chief executive officer, Jeff Weiner, said on Wednesday that he would step down from his position effective June 1.
Head of product Ryan Roslansky will take over as CEO of Microsoft Corp's <MSFT.O> LinkedIn, Weiner said in a post https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/its-time-my-next-play-linkedins-new-ceo-jeff-weiner on his LinkedIn profile.
"Ryan will report directly to Satya (Nadella) and serve as a member of his senior leadership team," he added.
Weiner, who has been the CEO since 2008, would become the platform's executive chairman.
LinkedIn, which was bought by Microsoft in 2016, has more than 675 million members.
Microsoft's productivity and business process unit, which includes LinkedIn, reported $11.8 billion in revenue in the second quarter.
(Reporting by Ayanti Bera in Bengaluru; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi) | MSFT | 334.36 |
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fidelity-high-dividend-etf-fdvv-152603138.html | Is Fidelity High Dividend ETF (FDVV) a Strong ETF Right Now? | When you look at individual holdings, Apple Inc (AAPL) accounts for about
4.12% of the fund's total assets, followed by Microsoft Corp (MSFT) and
Jpmorgan... | Feb 5, 2020 | Yahoo Finance | Is Fidelity High Dividend ETF (FDVV) a Strong ETF Right Now?
Designed to provide broad exposure to the Style Box - All Cap Value category of the market, the Fidelity High Dividend ETF (FDVV) is a smart beta exchange traded fund launched on 09/12/2016.
What Are Smart Beta ETFs?
The ETF industry has long been dominated by products based on market cap weighted indexes, a strategy created to reflect the market or a particular market segment.
Because market cap weighted indexes provide a low-cost, convenient, and transparent way of replicating market returns, they work well for investors who believe in market efficiency.
On the other hand, some investors who believe that it is possible to beat the market by superior stock selection opt to invest in another class of funds that track non-cap weighted strategies--popularly known as smart beta.
This kind of index follows this same mindset, as it attempts to pick stocks that have better chances of risk-return performance; non-cap weighted strategies base selection on certain fundamental characteristics, or a mix of such characteristics.
Methodologies like equal-weighting, one of the simplest options out there, fundamental weighting, and volatility/momentum based weighting are all choices offered to investors in this space, but not all of them can deliver superior returns.
Fund Sponsor & Index
The fund is sponsored by Fidelity. It has amassed assets over $554.20 M, making it one of the larger ETFs in the Style Box - All Cap Value. Before fees and expenses, this particular fund seeks to match the performance of the Fidelity Core Dividend Index.
The Fidelity Core Dividend Index is designed to reflect the performance of stocks of large and mid-capitalization dividend-paying companies that are expected to continue to pay and grow their dividends.
Cost & Other Expenses
Expense ratios are an important factor in the return of an ETF and in the long-term, cheaper funds can significantly outperform their more expensive cousins, other things remaining the same.
With on par with most peer products in the space, this ETF has annual operating expenses of 0.29%.
FDVV's 12-month trailing dividend yield is 3.91%.
Sector Exposure and Top Holdings
While ETFs offer diversified exposure, which minimizes single stock risk, a deep look into a fund's holdings is a valuable exercise. And, most ETFs are very transparent products that disclose their holdings on a daily basis.
When you look at individual holdings, Apple Inc (AAPL) accounts for about 4.12% of the fund's total assets, followed by Microsoft Corp (MSFT) and Jpmorgan Chase + Co (JPM).
Its top 10 holdings account for approximately 27.75% of FDVV's total assets under management.
Performance and Risk
Year-to-date, the Fidelity High Dividend ETF has added about 0.43% so far, and is up roughly 14.83% over the last 12 months (as of 02/05/2020). FDVV has traded between $28.38 and $33.16 in this past 52-week period.
The ETF has a beta of 0.87 and standard deviation of 11% for the trailing three-year period. With about 134 holdings, it effectively diversifies company-specific risk.
Alternatives
Fidelity High Dividend ETF is a reasonable option for investors seeking to outperform the Style Box - All Cap Value segment of the market. However, there are other ETFs in the space which investors could consider.
Invesco High Yield Equity Dividend Achievers ETF (PEY) tracks NASDAQ US Dividend Achievers 50 Index and the iShares Core S&P U.S. Value ETF (IUSV) tracks S&P 900 Value Index. Invesco High Yield Equity Dividend Achievers ETF has $939.17 M in assets, iShares Core S&P U.S. Value ETF has $6.76 B. PEY has an expense ratio of 0.53% and IUSV charges 0.04%.
Investors looking for cheaper and lower-risk options should consider traditional market cap weighted ETFs that aim to match the returns of the Style Box - All Cap Value.
Bottom Line
To learn more about this product and other ETFs, screen for products that match your investment objectives and read articles on latest developments in the ETF investing universe, please visit Zacks ETF Center.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Fidelity High Dividend ETF (FDVV): ETF Research Reports
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Apple Inc. (AAPL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) : Free Stock Analysis Report
iShares Core S&P U.S. Value ETF (IUSV): ETF Research Reports
Invesco High Yield Equity Dividend Achievers ETF (PEY): ETF Research Reports
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.
Zacks Investment Research | MSFT | 334.36 |
https://hexus.net/gaming/news/hardware/139502-xbox-series-x-mystery-slot-expected-fit-cfexpress-cards/ | Xbox Series X 'mystery slot' expected to fit CFExpress cards ... | Tags: Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Sony (NYSE:SNE). Quick Link:
HEXUS.net/qaeiho. Add to My Vault: x. There was a bit of a kerfuffle at the
CES 2020 when AMD... | Feb 5, 2020 | HEXUS.net | There was a bit of a kerfuffle at the CES 2020 when AMD showed off a render of the Xbox Series X from all angles. However, it was just a third party render based upon the guesswork of TurboSquid, as it turned out. Meanwhile other sites and sources thought they knew pretty well what ports would be round the back of Microsoft's next gen machine. Now, Microsoft-centric site Thurrott.com has shared some firmed-up assertions concerning the Xbox Series X back panel ports.
Above you can see what is purported to be an authentic image of the rear of the Xbox Series X. The ports you can see are as follows; from the upper left of the ports array you can see the two USB A ports, Ethernet, power, optical audio port, 'mystery slot', and a single HDMI port.
Thurrott.com was told by "people familiar with the company's plans," that Microsoft has provided this slot for storage expansion. As modern games are so storage hungry, a pre-installed SSD of say 1TB may only have capacity for nine or ten games. Microsoft wants to enable users of its new console to buy and install as many games as they like and its forward thinking designers want to provide optional extra capacity with the performance that its USB ports can't offer.
A wily Thurrott forum contributor did a bit of detective work and found that Phison's datasheet for the PS5019-E19T controller, being developed for or used by the Series X, provides CFExpress form factor storage expansion options. Type B CFExpress cards are 29.8mm x 3.8mm, which falls in line with the dimensions of the 'mystery slot' in the photo.
Currently CFExpress cards are very pricey at approx US$600 per half TB. However, Microsoft must be betting that it is an up and coming format which will get cheaper over the coming months, years.
PS5 landing page
In an extra console related news snippet today, Sony has published the first official product page for the PlayStation 5. There isn't a lot to see, or read, right now - just a landing page with the information that the PlayStation 5 is definitely coming, and it will launch in "holiday 2020". Sony asks visitors of its page to sign up for updates as it announces them. It will drip info about the console, its release date, pricing, and roster of launch games in the coming months. | MSFT | 334.36 |
https://www.computerworld.com/article/3519614/microsoft-advisory-shows-whether-edge-keeps-up-with-chromes-patching.html | Microsoft advisory shows whether Edge keeps up with Chrome's patching | MSFT Edge advisory Microsoft. This security advisory is supposed to list
all Edge security updates. Comparing the version number of Edge to that of
Chrome... | Feb 5, 2020 | Computerworld | Microsoft has posted a security advisory that will record all updates to its new Chromium-based Edge browser, giving customers a way to monitor whether the company keeps up with Google's patching of Chrome.
"This advisory will be updated whenever Microsoft releases a version of Microsoft Edge which incorporates publicly disclosed security updates from the Chromium project," the Redmond, Wash. firm wrote on the support document.
As of mid-day Wednesday, only one listing populated the advisory. The item, dated Jan. 17, called out four CVE-identified vulnerabilities. (CVE, for "Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures," is the most-used bug-naming standard.)
The advisory also noted the Edge version number that included the patches and the corresponding version of Chromium that also quashed the bugs. Because Chrome assumes Chromium's version numbers without change - for some reason, Edge does not - the advisory was the first way Computerworld found to link a specific version of Edge to one of Chrome.
Google released Chrome 79.0.3945.130 - the Chromium version listed in the advisory - on Jan. 16, saying here that the interim update included patches for 11 vulnerabilities. As usual, Google only identified four of the 11 by CVE. The quartet matched the four CVEs that Microsoft said were addressed in Edge.
Meanwhile, the Edge update, which Microsoft released Jan. 17 - one day after Chrome's - was marked as version 79.0.309.68.
(That's not the most current Edge; Microsoft updated the browser again on Jan. 23 to 79.0.309.71. However, there was no sign that that version patched any vulnerabilities. For a complete listing of Edge updates, users can steer to the Microsoft Update Catalog; Computerworld has pre-filtered the results to show only those for the Stable build of the browser.)
Edge 79.0.309.68 thus equals Chrome 79.0.3945.130.
Microsoft patched Edge just a day after Google refreshed Chrome, indicating that the former browser will not substantially lag behind the latter. If it had, attackers might have been able to use the interval to reverse engineer a patch, uncover the vulnerability and craft an exploit.
Still unknown is the size of the gap between Google promoting a new version of Chrome to the Stable branch and Microsoft following suit with Edge.
On Tuesday, Google released Chrome 80 - specifically, version 80.0.3987.87 - with new features as well as 56 security fixes. Google listed 37 of the 56 with CVE identifiers. Ten of the 37 were marked "High," the second-most-serious ranking in Chrome's four-step rating system.
As of 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, Microsoft had not updated Edge to reflect the Chrome's shift to version 80. Computerworld will continue to monitor Edge and how, or even if, it keeps pace with Chrome. | MSFT | 334.36 |
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-vs-microsoft-stock-better-231911867.html | Apple vs. Microsoft Stock: Which is the Better Buy as the Dow's Bull Run
Ends? | Microsoft MSFT and Apple AAPL both tumbled again Wednesday after the World
Health Organization declared the coronavirus a pandemic. | Mar 11, 2020 | Yahoo Finance | Apple vs. Microsoft Stock: Which is the Better Buy as the Dow's Bull Run Ends?
Microsoft MSFT and Apple AAPL both tumbled again Wednesday after the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a pandemic. The two tech giants helped send The Dow Jones Industrial Average down 5.9% on the day, which officially put it in a bear market—a decline of at least 20% from its recent high.
The coronavirus has officially ended the Dow’s 11-year bull run. Now the question is should investors consider buying either Apple or Microsoft amid the coronavirus market selloff and ongoing volatility?
Price
Despite the significant and quick declines, APPL and MSFT both closed regular trading Wednesday about where they were in the middle of December 2019, as the nearby chart shows.
Apple ended regular trading on March 11 at $275.43 a share, down 16% off its 52-week intraday highs of $327 a share that it in February. Yet, APPL is still up over 60% from its 52-week lows of $170 a share.
Microsoft ended the session at $153.63 per share. This marked an approximately 20% downturn from its 52-week intraday highs of $190.70 that it struck at around the same time as Apple. MSFT stock remains 35% above its 12-month lows of $113 a share.
MSFT came somewhat close to its 200-day moving average earlier this week, while AAPL still hovers further above that technical threshold. With that said, both stocks might still have plenty of room to fall, considering their insane runs and the ongoing spread of the coronavirus and the accompanying economic and market setbacks.
Valuation
Before the coronavirus selloff began, many investors and analysts had grown concerned about sky-high valuations and figured a correction was due to hit the overheated market. Well, we got a correction and the end of the bull market at breakneck speeds.
AAPL is now trading at 4.3X forward 12-months Zacks sales estimates, down from its recent 10-year highs of 4.9X. Apple has traded as low 3.1X forward sales in the last 12 months and 2.4X in the last three years.
Meanwhile, Microsoft is trading at 7.9X forward 12-months Zacks sales estimates, down from its recent decade-long highs of 9.4X. MSFT has traded as low as 6.6X in the last year and 4.9X in the three years.
Outlook & Other Fundamentals
Apple was the first major firm to flash warning signs to Wall Street when it announced on Feb. 17 that it didn’t expect to meet its revenue guidance due to both supply and demand shortages in China.
Microsoft then lowered its More Personal Computing segment guidance. However, it said in its Feb. 26 statement that “all other components of our Q3 guidance remain unchanged.”
MSFT topped our estimates last quarter and its earnings revisions activity surged. Despite some downward estimates in the last 30 days, Microsoft remains a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
The company’s cloud computing unit, which isn’t really expected to be impacted by the virus, is set to drive sales for years to come. Our Zacks estimates call for Microsoft’s adjusted earnings to surge 18.3% and 12.6%, respectively in fiscal 2020 and 2021. MSFT’s revenue is set to jump 12.8% and 11.7% during this same stretch.
Along with this growth, Microsoft’s dividend yield rests at 1.32%, which comes in well above the 10-year U.S. Treasury’s 0.87%.
Moving on, Apple’s 2020 revenues are projected to jump 7.7% and another 10.6% in 2021. Meanwhile, its adjusted earnings are set to pop 14.2% and 17.1% in 2020 and 2021. Investors should also note that Apple returned to growth in its vital iPhone unit and analysts expect this fall’s iPhone 12 will feature some of its most game-changing updates in years.
On top of that, AAPL continues to expand its services and wearables segments. AAPL’s goal is to generate more revenue from its 1.5 billion active devices. And Apple Music, Disney DIS and Netflix NFLX-challenger Apple TV+, its app store, news service, and others will likely drive this expansion.
Like MSFT, Apple has seen some negative revisions in the last month. But its longer-term consensus estimates remain far above where they were before it reported its Q1 2020 results in late January. This helps Apple earn a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at the moment, while its dividend yield sits at 1.12%.
Bottom line
Cleary, Apple and Microsoft both appear to be great long-term buys, even though their stocks could continue to fall amid ongoing coronavirus uncertainty. Three simple facts remain: both companies will continue to buy back stock, pay dividends, and grow for years to come.
At the moment, MSFT might be the better choice given that its cloud segment isn’t as exposed to China as Apple’s key iPhone unit is for both supply and demand.
But the coronavirus won’t be around forever. And the further AAPL and MSFT stocks fall, the better the buying opportunities get for these two tech titans.
In the end, if you don’t own Apple or Microsoft already, or if you have already sold, seeing their stocks drop another 10% to 15% or more would create fantastic buying opportunities.
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Zacks Investment Research | MSFT | 334.36 |
https://www.cantechletter.com/2020/03/is-microsoft-still-an-expensive-stock/ | Is Microsoft still an expensive stock? | And so, despite the ongoing market volatility is now maybe a good buying
opportunity for MSFT? Jason Mann of EdgeHill Partners says not really, as
the stock... | Mar 11, 2020 | Cantech Letter | Microsoft (Microsoft Stock Quote, Chart, News NASDAQ:MSFT) had a nice bounce-back on Tuesday but the stock remains well below its all-time high set in February. And so, despite the ongoing market volatility is now maybe a good buying opportunity for MSFT?
Jason Mann of EdgeHill Partners says not really, as the stock could still use some cooling off.
“We very much liked Microsoft on a good part of the run up, but frankly, last year it just got too expensive for us with this, call it growth at any price,” said Mann, chief investment officer at EdgeHill Partners, speaking to BNN Bloomberg on Tuesday.
“In Microsoft’s case it's their cloud business that's really driving the multiple expansion.
But last year was a good example of prices going up, but earnings not necessarily following in lockstep,” Mann said.
The coronovirus outbreak and now faltering oil prices have been wreaking havoc with markets around the world, with the tech sector not escaping the hit. Monday’s carnage saw the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lose 7.3 per cent of its value while the S&P500 fell 7.6 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 7.8 per cent.
Familiar tech names like Alphabet, Apple and Facebook are now in negative territory for the year while Amazon and Netflix have managed to stay in the black.
In Microsoft’s case, the stock finished 2019 up an incredible 87 per cent, taking MSFT to $293.65 per share. The share price kept climbing to $324.34 late January but has been yanked down in recent weeks, closing on Tuesday at $285.34.
Although Mann said Microsoft is still expensive, the company is fundamentally sound, and thus should reward investors — if they can get it a little cheaper.
“It's held in relatively well in the context of the market we've seen, but it's still not cheap enough for us. It’s trading at, call it, 19x EV/EBITDA and 30x-ish P/E,” says Mann. “We have no problem with the balance sheet, no problem with the quality of the earnings, a very high return on equity. It has strong price momentum but it's that valuation that has just gotten too expensive for us.”
“This would definitely be the type of stock we'd look to buy after a pullback after the valuation catches up because it's most likely going to maintain its relative performance versus a lot of these other stocks,” Mann added.
Microsoft last reported its earnings in late January, where its fiscal second quarter beat analysts’ estimates for both profit and revenue, with management issuing better-than-expected guidance as well.
MSFT reported revenue growth of 62 per cent from its Azure cloud business, with total revenue climbing 14 per cent year-over-year to $36.91 billion. Analysts had been expecting $35.68 billion. On earnings, Microsoft’s $1.51 per share handily beat the consensus $1.32 per share.
Late last month, Microsoft said that factory work stoppages in China as a result of the coronavirus outbreak would likely impact the production of personal computers and thus cut into the company’s revenue stream in upcoming quarters.
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Comment | MSFT | 334.36 |
https://www.onmsft.com/how-to/these-tips-and-tricks-will-make-you-a-pro-at-onenote-on-windows-10/ | These tips and tricks will make you a pro at OneNote on ... | Microsoft OneNote is a powerful digital notebook. You can use it to take
notes, organize your thoughts into a journal, and then view them across all
your... | Mar 11, 2020 | OnMSFT.com | Microsoft OneNote is a powerful digital notebook. You can use it to take notes, organize your thoughts into a journal, and then view them across all your different devices. Microsoft has continuously updated the app with plenty of new features, and it has become the defacto note-taking app for many.
In this guide, we’ll take a look at some of our favorite tips and tricks which can help turn you into a OneNote Pro. Keep in mind, though, we’ll be talking about the OneNote app downloaded through the Microsoft Store, and not OneNote 2016.
Tip 1: Use some keyboard shortcuts
Like the other Office 365 apps, OneNote depends heavily on using a ribbon for navigation. You can save your time in your busy day though, and try out some keyboard shortcuts to avoid having to constantly click on the ribbon for common tasks. Some of our favorite keyboard shortcuts can be seen below.
|Task||Keyboard Shortcut|
|Add a new page at the end of the selected section||Ctrl+N|
|Open a notebook||Ctrl+O|
|Create a new page below the current page tab on the same level||Ctrl+Alt+N|
|Move or copy the current page||Ctrl+Alt+M|
|Open the Home tab||Alt+H|
|Open the Insert tab||Alt+N|
|Open the Draw tab||Alt+D|
|Open the ribbon||Alt|
|Start a math equation or convert selected text to a math equation||Alt+=|
There are many other shortcuts that you can use in OneNote which we didn’t mention above. These range from formatting, adding items to a page, selecting notes and objects, tagging notes, and more. You can see the complete list of shortcuts here at Microsoft.
Tip 2: Change your paper style and color
By default, OneNote gives you a blank white canvas to work on. However, if you go to the view menu, you can choose from different paper types. This will be more useful for different situations, be it inking up a graph, or just taking traditional notes in a lined notebook. By going to view and then choosing Page Color you can swap out between different page colors. You also can add lines or a grid to your page as well for various types of notebooks, say for graphing or taking actual notes. Just choose the Rule Lines option from the View bar to do this.
Tip 3: Use Dark Mode
Staring at a white screen when taking notes and using OneNote can be hard on the eyes. Like the other apps in Windows 10, OneNote supports a Dark Mode. This will make many elements of the OneNote user interface easier to read and navigate. Your pages will turn dark, and so will the navigation bar. You can turn it on in Windows 10 by clicking the . . . Settings and More menu at the top right corner of the screen, and choosing the Settings option followed by Options. There will be an option for Dark mode, and you’ll want to choose that.
Tip 4: Password protect your sections
Nothing is more horrible than someone peeking at your personal notes or your super-secret documents. Much like with Word and PowerPoint documents, you can protect your OneNote sections to keep the spies away. You can do this by right-clicking the name of a section in the sidebar, choosing Password Protection and then selecting Add Password. You will then have to enter your password twice, to confirm it. We talk more about password protection in our other OneNote guide here, so be sure to give it a read.
Tip 5: Split up two sessions of OneNote into two windows
Multi-tasking is a great way to save time during your busy day. You already can do it with the other Office 365 apps like PowerPoint and Word by opening up two sessions of the same program side-by-side. But, you can also do this in OneNote too. All it takes is to head to the View tab and click the New Window button at the top left corner of this screen. This will open up a new instance of OneNote, and allow you to stack two versions of the app side by side and get more work done. it’s particularly useful if you’re copying notes, or looking at a graph and want to still take notes in OneNote.
Tip 6: Use OneNote for solving tricky math problems
One area where OneNote is better than competing services like Evernote is its support for math problems. With OneNote, you can write out a math question and even have the app solve it and graph it for you. Of course, OneNote is no substitute for a math teacher, but it can really help out by giving you step by step instructions. To get started with this, all you have to do is begin by writing out an equation, either by ink with a pen or by typing it out.
When you’re done, you’ll want to click the Draw tab and select the Lasso tool and draw a circle around the equation. You can then click again on the Draw tab and choose Math. When done, you can select an action to solve or graph. Solving will give you a step by step solution, and graphing will give you an option to insert it on the page for examination or inking.
Tip 7: Use OneNote to insert printouts of Word documents, PDFs
If you’re looking to mark up a PDF file for your own personal use, say, perhaps a textbook, OneNote can help. With the insert printout feature, OneNote will insert a file as a picture. You can’t physically edit the printout, but you can draw on top of it, and keep the original formatting. You also can move it anywhere on the page.
To do this, click where you want to insert the file printout. Then, go to Insert followed by File Printout. You can then click the file you want to insert, and click insert. When done, you can ink on the image as you please. You also can copy text from the printout if you want, by right-clicking the image and then choosing Copy Text from this Page of the Printout.
How do you use OneNote?
These are just our top 7 tricks for OneNote. There are many other ways you can use the app to your productivity advantage, especially if you’re sporting OneNote 2016. Check out our OneNote news hub for more, and let us know in the comments below how you use OneNote! | MSFT | 334.36 |
https://www.onmsft.com/feature/heres-how-schools-and-colleges-can-use-microsoft-products-and-services-for-remote-learning/ | Here's how schools and colleges can use Microsoft products ... | That includes access to web-based Office apps through Office.com, as well
as Word, Excel, PowerPoint, OneNote, and Microsoft Teams. It even has
access to cloud... | Mar 12, 2020 | OnMSFT.com | The classroom or lecture hall is the hub of learning, and nothing beats face-to-face, student-to-teacher interaction. With the spread of Coronavirus, though, more colleges, universities, and schools across America have been turning to online classes as a method of keeping students safe. As a parent or teacher, you might be wondering how that all works. That’s why, in this guide, we’ll cut through the jargon and give you a look at how Microsoft technology is being used to support remote learning.
The Basics
As part of remote learning, many schools can use Microsoft Office 365. As we’ve explained before, schools and universities often offer Office 365 for free to students and teachers. The best example of this is the City University of New York, which gives access to Microsoft Office 365 for Education to students at participating colleges via the Microsoft Office in Education program. In most cases, the licenses remain active until a student or teachers leave the University.
This means that most educators and students can get access to the core Microsoft Office apps for free, without paying a monthly or yearly subscription fee. That includes access to web-based Office apps through Office.com, as well as Word, Excel, PowerPoint, OneNote, and Microsoft Teams. It even has access to cloud storage on OneDrive and emailing on Outlook, where files for learning can be stored or shared. The desktop versions of Office 365 apps can also be installed on teacher and student laptops and desktops easily by visiting Office.com and signing in using a school or university’s email account. These apps stay up to date automatically and have plenty of collaboration features, as we explain next.
The collaboration features of Office 365
The core experience of Microsoft’s Office 365 offers a lot of collaboration experiences that can be used in remote learning. As one example, teachers can upload specific documents on to OneDrive, share a link, and have students access it via Office.com or open it on Office on their computer. This skips out on the need to email files with Outlook, as more than one student can collaborate on the document at the same time. As our guide explained, once the link is shared, teachers and students can use an @mention with someone’s name in a comment on documents, and even direct them to a specific place. There’s Microsoft Forms, too, which can be used to create quizzes and other assignments.
Microsoft Teams and virtual lessons
While collaborating on documents with Office documents is one small way that Microsoft services can be used in remote learning, Microsoft Teams is the biggest way. In fact, Microsoft has an education-specific version of Teams known as Teams for Education. Using Microsoft Teams, teachers can create certain “Channels” or “Teams” for classes and groups, and for fellow educators to meet in virtually. Microsoft Teams also let students and educators chat via text or video chat from any device. Other ways Teams can be used in the classroom can be seen below.
- Allows to schedule online meetings with Teams Calendar
- Allows students or educators to @ mention each other to get attention and start conversations
- Allows teachers to create annocuments so everyone can be informed on the same page
- Allows teachers and students to meet in a channel to turn a class into a lesson or presentation
- Allows students to chat privatley or in groups
Microsoft Teams also goes beyond virtual meetings or chats, though. When a “Team” is created in Microsoft Teams, files can be shared in a channel. Anyone in that channel can then read the file, or comment on it. Additionally, important class files can be uploaded to Teams in a Class Materials folder. Meetings can also be recorded, and a teacher can share his or her screen through Teams for an enhanced learning experience. There are even options to create Assignments in Teams, and Track progress and give feedback in the Grades tab in Teams.
OneNote
OneNote is another Microsoft service that can be used in remote learning. It’s often already used by students as a note-taking app, but OneNote has a feature known as a “Class Notebook” which is useful for education. This is essentially a personal workspace for every student, a content library for handouts, and a collaboration space for lessons and creative activities.
The Class Notebook can be accessed through the OneNote app on Windows 10, MacOS, or on the web and even Microsoft Teams. In fact, each class team in Microsoft Teams comes with its own linked OneNote Class Notebook. As noted by Microsoft, Teams will deliver on Class Notebooks in three different ways:
- Student Notebooks: A private space shared between the teacher and each individual student. Teachers can access every student notebook, while students can only see their own.
- Content Library : A read-only space where teachers can share handouts with students.
- Collaboration Space: A space where everyone in your class can share, organize, and collaborate.
Finally, OneNote can also be used to create assignments with Class Notebook pages. This is a great way to distribute homework or virtual handouts, and it easily can be done right from the Assignments tab in OneNote Class Notebooks. Once something is assigned, each student will have a copy of the page inside their Class Notebooks. They can also open and edit the page directly from the assignment card in Microsoft Teams.
Other ways Microsoft products and services for remote learning
These are just a couple of the top ways that Microsoft products and services for remote learning. There’s another few which are worth mentioning, too. For instance, Teachers can create interactive presentations on PowerPoint, and also creative projects on Microsoft Sway. Microsoft also has a virtual chalkboard that students and teachers can use during Teams meetings and access on Windows and the web, known as Microsoft Whiteboard. Teachers can even Invite experts to drop into virtual classroom sessions on Teams or via Skype to help make learning more interesting.
Microsoft is here to help
Microsoft is here to help teachers and educators transition to remote learning. The company has a dedicated education-specific website where you can find resources and other training guides dedicated to Office 365. These range from resources that can help IT admins set a school up for remote learning, a quick start guide for teachers, best practices for students, and a guide for parents. We’d also remind you that Microsoft has a support line for teachers, parents, and IT admins who may be concerned. | MSFT | 334.36 |
https://www.investopedia.com/despite-a-steep-market-correction-retail-investors-have-been-buyers-of-stocks-4799479 | Individual Investors Calmly Buy Stocks During Sell-Off | ... Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Disney (DIS), as these mega-caps
have seen their shares tumble off of record highs. But they are also buying
a... | Mar 11, 2020 | Investopedia | Individual investors are leaning into Warren Buffett's famous axiom, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," despite the steep correction across U.S. markets since late February. According to trading data from Fidelity Investments and Vanguard, two of the biggest brokers serving retail investors, their clients are showing no signs of panic and adding stocks to their portfolios in the midst of a steep market sell-off that has brought the S&P 500 down close to 20% from its highs of February 19th. This, despite ongoing concerns about the depth and severity of the economic impact of the coronavirus, which has now officially been labeled a global pandemic by the World Health Organization.
As research teams at the world's biggest banks forecast a recession and an end to one of the longest bull markets in history, the majority of clients at Vanguard, which manages over $5.6 trillion, moved money into equities as opposed to fixed income, including cash, according to a Charles Kurtz, a spokesperson for the firm. Kurtz also said that while trading activity nearly doubled during the last two weeks, it was modest on an absolute basis. Approximately 1% of U.S. Vanguard households traded each day over the last two weeks; a typical day is 0.4%, Kurtz said.
Fidelity Investments, which manages $2.4 trillion in assets, also reported a similar surge in stock buying by its customers. Fidelity saw an equity buy-to-sell ratio of 2.11 to 1 on Monday, March 9th, even though U.S. markets plunged over 7%. Fidelity also reported 57% more logins at Fidelity than the average Monday over the past 12 months, according to Robert Beauregard, a spokesperson for the firm.
What are Investors Buying?
As markets have been whipsawed by volatility, investors at Fidelity, which publishes its most actively traded stocks and ETFs each trading session, have been loading up on some of the most popular stocks like Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Disney (DIS), as these mega-caps have seen their shares tumble off of record highs. But they are also buying a variety of ETFs that both track the major indexes like State Street's SPDR (SPY), and Invesco's QQQ (QQQ) Trust Series, a popular ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100. Some investors have even tried to capitalize on the intense market volatility by scooping up shares of the ETF, TVIX, which is a 2X short-term volatility product that has been spiking due to the rapid rise and fall of prices of late.
Some bold investors have even been scooping up shares of embattled airline stocks like American Airlines and airplane manufacturer Boeing. Airlines have been particularly hard hit as the coronavirus has suspended travel in and out of several countries and fliers have cancelled or postponed travel plans due to the pandemic.
The Trouble with Market Timing
While it is somehow uplifting to see individual investors treading into troubled waters, timing the market and hoping to get it right is next to impossible. The coronavirus has delivered a new and unprecedented set of challenges that the inter-connected global economy has never faced. Market swings have been violent in recent weeks, and just when a bottom may seem to be in place, markets have collapsed even further.
Individual investors don't have as much sway in moving the market as they once did. While we own about 34% of the $48 trillion public equity market either directly or through defined contribution plans like IRAs and 401(k)s, according to Goldman Sachs, institutional investors, pension funds and governments own a larger share and have a bigger impact. Many of the biggest money managers and banks on the planet also rely on algorithmic trading that allows them to execute multi-million share trades in fractions of a second, which has been a contributor to recent volatility.
Individual investors are at a great mismatch when it comes to trying to catch the massive waves that are set in motion by institutions and their lightning fast software. They do, however, have a better sense of their own financial risk and are empowered to make their own investment decisions and take action through their online broker or robo-advisor. Whether they are timing those decisions correctly or not will be judged by the future. But they are making them in the midst of one of the most volatile and accelerated market sell-offs in history.
Buyers beware. | MSFT | 334.36 |
https://www.ccn.com/heres-how-much-nvidia-actually-made-from-crypto-miners/ | Here's How Much Nvidia Actually Made from Crypto Mining ... | “We think NVDA generated $1.95 billion in total revenue related to
crypto/blockchain. This compares to company's statement that it generated
around $602... | Feb 1, 2019 | CCN.com | According to a report by Markets Insider, Nvidia generated $1.95 billion in revenue from its crypto business. Although the official financial statement of the company ...
According to a report by Markets Insider, Nvidia generated $1.95 billion in revenue from its crypto business.
Although the official financial statement of the company disclosed a $602 million crypto-related revenue, RBC analyst Mitch Steves said that the actual number is at least three times higher.
“We think NVDA generated $1.95 billion in total revenue related to crypto/blockchain. This compares to company’s statement that it generated around $602 million over the same time period,” Steves said.
In the third quarter of 2018, Nvidia chief financial officer Colette Kress told investors to not expect any revenue from its crypto business.
At the time, the company’s shutdown of its cryptocurrency venture led to the decline in its stock price.
Kress said in August:
“We believe we’ve reached a normal period as we’re looking forward to essentially no cryptocurrency as we move forward. Our revenue outlook had anticipated cryptocurrency-specific products declining to approximately $100 million, while actual crypto-specific product revenue was $18 million, and we now expect a negligible contribution going forward.”
However, throughout the past five months, many analysts have attributed the decline in the performance of the company to the 85 percent drop of the cryptocurrency market.
Given that Nvidia CFO Colette Kress already emphasized in August that it has pulled out of the crypto sector, the narrative that the correction in the cryptocurrency market is hurting the firm’s numbers has intensified.
A new report released by RBC claimed that the company’s ties with the crypto market are deeper than how they were initially presented late last year.
RBC analyst Mitch Steves said that the revenue Nvidia generated from its crypto mining equipment manufacturing business from April 2017 to July 2018 is estimated to be $2.75 billion.
Noting that the numbers cannot be fully confirmed, Steves suggested that the company had 75 percent control over the GPU-related crypto mining market — and possibly the entire GPU market — alongside AMD.
From January 25 to 29, the stock price of Nvidia dropped from $160.15 to $131.6, by more than 18 percent. For a major technology conglomerate, such a large short-term drop in market valuation is unprecedented.
But, throughout the past month, analysts have said that the overall decline in demand for Nvidia’s gaming GPUs negatively affected the firm’s performance rather than the struggling crypto market.
The Motley Fool reported that gamers are not compelled to purchase Nvidia’s newest and high-performance GPUs because of three main factors:
Newzoo, a games, esports, and mobile market research firm, said that the most sought out GPUs in the market are the GTX 1060, GTX 1050 Ti, and GTX 1070
Essentially, Nvidia challenged AMD, another dominant graphics card manufacturer, in taking control of the low-end GPU market. While Nvidia was successful in doing so, the consequence of the strategy was an overall decline in demand for high-end and expensive GPUs, a market where Nvidia dominates.
The struggle of graphics card manufacturers has not been exclusive to Nvidia. AMD and smaller GPU makers have also demonstrated poor performance throughout the last quarter of 2018.
In December 2018, when Nvidia first started to show signs of underperformance, CNBC Mad Money host Jim Cramer said that it was a forecasting mistake that caused Nvidia’s stock to drop rather than variables like the crypto market (video above).
“Nvidia still makes the best graphics chips, which have become more powerful than traditional microprocessors. It still has a lead over the competition in a lot of uses, although you could argue that AMD’s catching up to them in the data center while Intel rivals them in self-driving vehicles. I think Nvidia made an honest forecasting mistake, although given that some of us saw it coming, it was definitely an avoidable mistake,” Cramer said.
Featured Image from Shutterstock. Price Charts from TradingView. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://wccftech.com/softbank-bullish-on-china-considering-1-5-billion-investment-in-guazi/ | SoftBank Bullish on China – Considering $1.5 Billion Investment in Guazi | ... slashed earnings targets with both Apple (covered here NASDAQ:AAPL) and
NVIDIA (covered here NASDAQ:NVDA) feeling the brunt of the Chinese slowdown
this... | Feb 2, 2019 | Wccftech | This is not investment advice. The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Wccftech.com has a disclosure and ethics policy.
Although there are rumblings that the global economy may be on the brink of starting to struggle, led by China – US trade war, US government shutdown, slow Chinese economic growth and Brexit among other themes, Softbank (TYO:9984) continues looking for new tech companies to invest in at pace with Chinese used car trading website Guazi.com currently the target of its affections.
The slowing Chinese economy has been reported by several companies as being the cause of slashed earnings targets with both Apple (covered here NASDAQ:AAPL) and NVIDIA (covered here NASDAQ:NVDA) feeling the brunt of the Chinese slowdown this quarter but there do seem to be a few drivers behind SoftBank’s continued interest in Chinese technology companies.
First up, a “slowdown” in Chinese growth now has the country’s GDP growing at an annualised 6.5%, still significantly faster than most western nations. Granted, these are official figures which are doubtless massaged somewhat but the overall trend is still significantly positive, albeit shrinking (China was up around 10%/year until 2012 and since then has been on a trajectory from 8% down to the current 6.5%). The Chinese almost 1.4 billion population still has significant growth left to give with GDP per capita at a little under $9,000/year).
Secondly, there are (admittedly mixed) messages of positivity emanating from both Beijing and Washington D.C with regards to ongoing negotiations to end the trade dispute before the more punitive 25% tariffs by the US kick in on the 1st of March, which would inevitably lead to more damage to prospects for renewed economic growth should they come about.
Third, much of China is still without automotive transportation. 2018 estimates put the number of cars in the country at approximately 240 million. Given that about 65% of the population is between 16 and 60 that means that a staggering 650 million people of driving age don’t have a car (rough number given that driving age is 18). Whatever way you cut it, that’s one hell of a second hand market that cars will be filtering down through in the coming decades.
Couple that with the declining new car sales numbers of the world’s number one car market and it makes for tantalising reading for SoftBank. Chinese used car sales are continuing to increase with an 11.5% jump in 2018 from 2017. Additional Chinese governmental incentives to both loosen regulatory restrictions on selling used cars as well as targeted subsidies to boost rural sales will also help.
Guazi.com – SoftBank Sets the Scene
According to the usual “people familiar with the matter”, SoftBank has also been in talks with Guazi competitor Renrenche which is funded in part by Chinese Uber equivalent Didi Chuxing. Given that Softbank owns a stake in Didi, it must have seen something it didn’t like in Renrenche for it to turn its back on the firm and pursue Guazi. It’s also interesting to note that SoftBank’s Chinese competitor (in some ways) Tencent (HKG:0700) currently has a stake in both Guazi and Renrenche.
The talks suggest that the $1.5 billion boost to Guazi would value the firm at approximately $8.5 billion, a significant boost on the $6.6 billion it was valued at during it fund raise just a few short months ago in November. SoftBank still has its ambitions of course and a sizeable coffer with which to pursue long term investments. Warren Buffett’s preferred holding period of “forever” is a useful perspective to look at though when dealing with the kinds of investments that SoftBank is making so short term market hits due to economic cycle and other events are less likely to worry them. With new car sales in China falling, the used car market will mature and given the commission charged by Guazi to sellers, SoftBank appears to think that’s where there is a lot of money to be made as a hedge against its investments in automakers.
Comments | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-for-the-markets-in-february-4586352 | What to Expect for the Markets in February | We've seen how that slowdown has hit companies like Apple (AAPL),
Caterpillar (CAT) and Nvidia (NVDA). In the U.S., growth is expected to be
around 2.5%,... | Feb 1, 2019 | Investopedia | The January effect was in full effect for the first month of 2019. After a punishing December, stocks rebounded in the first few weeks of January as signs of progress in the U.S.-China trade war appeared, the Federal Reserve adopted a more dovish tone on interest rates, and earnings season revealed that some companies and sectors have more-positive outlooks than expected.
It was a month to remember:
- The S&P 500, up 7.8%, had its best January performance since 1987, and its biggest monthly gain since October 2015.
- The DJIA rose 7.17% in January, its largest one-month rise since 2015 and biggest January gain in 30 years.
- Crude oil prices had their best month on record, surging more than 19% after three straight months of losses. Output cuts and the chaos in Venezuela, had a lot to do with that performance.
- The U.S. added 304,000 jobs in January, blowing out expectations despite the shutdown.
While stocks have rebounded, notably for U.S. companies and indexes, risks still remain and many of them will become more apparent in February. These are the most notable risks and events coming up this month that investors should be aware of on the horizon. We’ll paint the macro picture for the upcoming month and our team of experts will weigh in on their particular areas of focus across investing and trading.
The Macro Picture
The global economy is slowing. It’s not a secret. China, which had been on a blistering pace of growth for the past decade, now expects its economy to grow in the 6%-6.5% range this year. While that is still an extremely strong rate of growth, it is slower than what was previously expected from the world’s second largest economy. We’ve seen how that slowdown has hit companies like Apple (AAPL), Caterpillar (CAT) and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the U.S., growth is expected to be around 2.5%, according to the Federal Reserve. That’s down from the 3.5% growth achieved in 2018, but it is still growing. The temporary partial government shutdown had a minimal impact on growth, but if Congress and President Trump don’t reach an agreement on a continuing resolution to fund the government on or before February 15, another shutdown may be unavoidable, which will impact economic growth. Remarkably, the U.S. stock market rallied through the three-week closure, but that was attributed to signs of progress on the trade talks with China.
There has been a growing drumbeat about an impending recession later in 2019 and into 2020. While recessions are tough to predict, we have seen the signs in key economic indicators that typically precede a recession. Namely, the inversion of the yield curve, a dip in the leading economic indicators which include housing starts, hiring and other metrics, and stock market volatility. Recessions don’t always cause bear markets and vice versa, but the two are often correlated, as history has shown. This chart from Pension Partners sums it up.
The Fed Shifts Stance
The Federal Reserve has gone from a hawkish stance with planned interest rate hikes through 2019 to a ‘wait and see’ approach, as of its most recent FOMC meeting on Jan. 30. While rising interest rates were one of the culprits many pointed to for the market correction last fall, it may not be a headwind facing the stocks for the near-term. The Fed cited a slowing global economy and volatility in the financial markets as reasons for the about-face, and Chair Powell has indicated that it will keep this monetary policy in its quiver until it is needed. The Fed may also decide to lower rates in 2019 if conditions worsen, which would be another boon for stocks. Keeping the overnight lending rate at bay, in the 2.25%-2.50% range where it sits today, helps borrowing costs, encourages lending, lowers rates for consumers for mortgages, car loans and credit cards, and weakens the dollar, which is critical for manufacturers and exporters.
Europe – Really Brexit
Europe is complicated. The biggest single issue facing the continent and the EU is Brexit. With the March 29 deadline fast approaching for the U.K. to formally leave the EU, Prime Minister Theresa May, a leading proponent of Brexit, is hanging on to her post by a thread. She has survived several "no confidence" votes in British Parliament, cabinet defections, complicated demands from the EU and Northern Ireland and public discord. An opposition party in Parliament tried and failed to postpone the March 29 exit date, so that is still the day to circle on the calendar.
Growth for the EU has slowed from 2.6% in January 2018 to 1.6% this January.
On Jan. 31, Italy officially fell into a recession, mired in high unemployment and high debt. Italy is the fourth-biggest economy inside the European Union, but it's facing $2.6 trillion in debt. France and Greece are also facing sluggish growth and political unrest – especially in France.
The Trade War
The U.S. and China are in the middle of a peace treaty of sorts as the two economic powerhouses attempt to head off an all-out trade war. The countries have levied hundreds of billions of dollars of fines on imported goods from one another, which has punished manufacturers and farmers in both nations as well as those that both buy and sell from each of them. From soybeans to steel, there are thousands of products impacted by the increase in tariffs, and the costs are being passed right down to the consumer.
Keep an eye on the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, according to our investing expert, John Jagerson. Here's his take on what to watch:
"... January’s manufacturing data was less-bad than expected but still in contraction territory. In order to avoid another economic debacle like the market experienced in 2015, Chinese economic data needs to improve. As you can see in the following chart, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for China has been in decline for months now. PMI readings below 50 indicate contraction. Because of the holiday, the next industrial production data is unscheduled, and PMI won’t be out again until the end of February. Signs of recovery or weakness in China’s trade balance, industrial production, or PMI numbers will be a key for understanding the potential for a repeat of 2015 so investors must stay alert for unexpected news. "
No Surprise on Corporate Earnings
We are about halfway through corporate earnings season and the results are as expected. We knew they would be weaker given that the tailwind of the 2017 tax breaks had faded, the global economy is slowing and the uncertainty around the trade war is pervasive. As of Jan. 30, 49.7% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported for the last quarter of 2018. Earnings are beating expectations by 2.3%, with 65% of companies exceeding their bottom-line estimates. This compares to 4.9% and 70% over the past three years, according to Credit Suisse. We’ll hear earnings results from Amazon.com, General Motors, Goodyear Tires and YUM Brands, to name but a few of the companies due to report next week. While their results from the prior quarter are important, it’s their outlooks for 2019 that we care about most. Are they cautious given political and economic uncertainty, or are they confident given the Fed’s latest stance and good signs from the trade talks?
Stocks in February
History has not been so kind to the second month of the year, which is also the shortest. There is no rhyme or reason for that, but over the past 50 years, February has typically been a flat month for U.S. stocks. Only June and September have been historically worse, according to LPL Financial.
Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist for LPL puts it this way:
“We like to say that the easy 10% has been made off the lows and the next 10% will be much tougher...Things like Fed policy, China uncertainty, and overall global growth concerns all will play a part in where equity markets go from here.”
At Investopedia, we also like to look at the technical indicators for stocks. Luckily we have James Chen, CMT, on our team.
Here is his take on what to watch for the S&P 500 in February:
A quick look at the S&P 500 (SPX) daily chart above tells the whole story of December's sharp plunge and January's equally sharp rebound. As we look towards February, this rebound has just reached up to approach a relatively strong resistance point around the 2,710-2,715 range, which is right around the 100-day moving average and a key 61.8% Fibonacci level (measured from September's all-time high down to the late December low).
Will February's market have enough juice to break through resistance and extend the rebound further? Strong corporate earnings and an increasingly dovish and accommodative Federal Reserve have been the primary drivers of the market rally in January. These are both strong fundamental drivers, but upside technical resistance is also strong. In February, the market move to watch will be whether or not the S&P 500 can surmount this resistance and potentially set the stage for a sustained move back up to resume the long-term bull trend. Or, a much less appealing scenario would be a February turn back down at or near resistance towards bear market territory once again.
We packed a lot into this outlook for the month, but the goal is to give you a comprehensive look at the complicated world of investing.
We hope it helps. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://www.texasmonthly.com/arts-entertainment/the-mavericks-now-have-their-new-dirk-nowitzki-steve-nash-combo/ | The Mavericks Now Have Their New Dirk Nowitzki–Steve ... | This profile adjusts the website to be compatible with screen-readers such
as JAWS, NVDA, VoiceOver, and TalkBack. A screen-reader is software that
is... | Feb 1, 2019 | Texas Monthly | The Dallas Mavericks unexpectedly landed a superstar on Thursday, trading for the New York Knicks’ Kristaps Porzingis. It was a masterful move by the Mavs, who capitalized on a recently-turned-sour relationship between Porzingis and the Knicks to land the disgruntled seven-footer for essentially nothing, emerging from the deal with arguably the most promising guard-forward combo in the league.
Porzingis was, until maybe 72 hours ago, the Knicks’ franchise player. He melds strong defense around the rim with the ability to shoot from deep, and at 23 years old he’s already one of the most dynamic players in the league. He was named to the All-Star team last year after averaging 22.7 points per game while shooting 39.5 percent from three, but he tore his ACL in February and hasn’t played since. Pairing Porzingis with Mavs rookie Luka Doncic seems almost unfair. Assuming Porzingis fully recovers from his ACL injury—and right now there’s no indication that he won’t—he and the six-foot-seven Doncic should play well together. Mavs officials are already salivating, comparing the young stars to the old duo of Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki. “We obviously think Porzingis is a great young talent, similar in many ways to Dirk,” coach Rick Carlisle said on the Mavs’ flagship station, 103.3 FM ESPN, on Thursday, according to ESPN. “This is kind of a Dirk-and-[Steve] Nash type of situation, only these guys are taller.”
For what it’s worth, the addition of Porzingis has Nowitzki’s complete approval. “He’s got a franchise-type player game,” Nowitzki said after the trade, according to the Dallas Morning News. “He’s a perfect fit for the new NBA. He’s mobile enough to play the four (power forward), he can be a spread-five (center), he can roll, block shots, post. Before he got hurt, he played a great all-around game—and he’s got the work ethic to be great.”
The trade for Porzingis comes at a key moment for the Mavs. Nash, of course, is long gone, and Nowitzki is nearing retirement; the Mavericks have slipped from a perennial playoff team to a franchise in rebuild mode—a rebuild that, until very recently, appeared to be going nowhere. Following their last playoff appearance in 2016, the Mavs tried to add some young core players in an attempt to keep the team competitive as Nowitzki slowly phased out of his star role, banking on Harrison Barnes (whom they signed to a max contract) and Nerlens Noel. It became clear in the 2016-17 season that those moves were not nearly enough, and Dallas finished with one of the worst records in the league. The Mavs earned a lottery pick, which they spent on guard Dennis Smith Jr., an athletic but raw talent. Smith showed promise as a rookie but wasn’t able to put everything together, and with their lottery pick last year the Mavs took another guard, Doncic, signaling the start of a rebuild over a rebuild.
Doncic immediately took the league by storm—we wrote a little about that already—and he has cemented himself as arguably the best young player in the league. At 23-28, the Mavs have shown improvement over last year, but it’s clear that Doncic will need a stronger supporting cast going forward. Before the Porzingis trade, the Mavs had a weird mix of young talent and veterans, but it was not built for Doncic and was unlikely to work long-term. After the Porzingis trade, Doncic now has the most important part of any title contender in a perfect-complement superstar, and much sooner than expected. The Mavs gave up Smith (his role on the team was essentially nullified once Doncic emerged), veterans Deandre Jordan and Wesley Matthews, as well as two future unprotected first-round draft picks in return for Porzingis, Tim Hardaway Jr., Trey Burke, and Courtney Lee. None of those players except for Porzingis are likely to play large roles in the Mavs’ future, but they’re all serviceable role players for the time being. Trading for a superstar like Porzingis makes even more sense when you consider that the Mavs have been chronically unable to sign a true superstar through free agency, despite being awash in cash.
But the Mavs are still taking on some risk here. Porzingis could leave after 2020, when he is set to become an unrestricted free agent, and there are some concerns about his long-term durability. So it’s possible the Mavs could end up with nothing out of this trade. They’ll have to convince Porzingis that playing with Doncic is worth sticking around for, or at least that their franchise is a better-run outfit than the Knicks—which won’t be hard. There’s a good chance Mavs fans will be able to enjoy the Doncic-Porzingis duo for years to come.
Comments | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://www.beckett.com/news/2019-oscar-nominees-with-autograph-cards-beckett-pricing-insider/ | 2019 Oscar Nominees with Autograph Cards – Beckett Pricing ... | This profile adjusts the website to be compatible with screen-readers such
as JAWS, NVDA, VoiceOver, and TalkBack. A screen-reader is software that
is... | Feb 3, 2019 | Beckett | 2019 Oscar Nominees with Autograph Cards – Beckett Pricing Insider
Several high-profile 2019 Oscar nominees have signed autographs in many products over the years. This group of performers and filmmakers has starred in or directed many eclectic roles over their careers. Among them, we have had a king, a Sith Lord, a talking raccoon, and Jesus Christ.
Their combined 200-plus years of experience in show business has paved the way for them to be honored this year.
Here are the nominees for the Best Autographs from this year’s crop of Oscar nominees:
Spike Lee
Best Director for BlacKkKlansman
From Do the Right Thing to Malcolm X, Spike Lee has been a controversial mainstay among Hollywood’s best directors. His best signature resides alongside Reggie Miller’s in the 2003-04 SP Signature Edition Marquee Marks. These are extremely limited as they are serial numbered to 25.
Bradley Cooper
Best Actor for A Star is Born
Before he was hungover, Cooper starred in the hit TV show, Alias. His first autograph was in the 2002 Alias Season One product. It is still his most sought after signature.
Viggo Mortensen
Best Actor for Green Book
Viggo is probably most known for his role as Aragorn in the Lord of the Rings franchise. His first autograph was included in the star-studded 2001 Lord of the Rings Fellowship of Rings autograph set.
Willem Dafoe
Best Actor for At Eternity’s Gate
From Jesus to T.S. Eliot, Mr. Dafoe has portrayed many profound characters over his near 40-year career. His lone autograph is in the 2007 Spider-Man 3 product and it commemorates his turn as Norman Osborn, aka the Green Goblin.
Glenn Close
Best Actress for The Wife
Close is the sole actress from this year’s nominations that has autographs. In the 2014 Guardians of the Galaxy product, she has a standard autograph and an autographed relic. Both which have maintained a substantial amount of popularity and value.
Adam Driver
Best Supporting Actor for BlacKkKlansman
Kylo Ren himself is in high demand on the card market and he has an ample amount of autographs out there. However, his first from the 2016 Star Wars Masterwork set remains among the most prized.
Mahershala Ali
Best Supporting Actor for Green Book
Among the nominees, no one has enjoyed a more successful year than Ali. He is currently starring as the lead character in the third season of True Detective. His only autographs come in 2013 Alphas Season One and 2007 The 4400 Season Two.
Richard E. Grant
Best Supporting Actor for Can You Ever Forgive Me?
This character actor has touched just about every plane of pop culture with his roles. He’s starred in Game of Thrones, Logan, Doctor Who, Downton Abbey, and will be appearing in Episode IX of the Star Wars franchise. He only has two autographs and they can be found in 2017 Game of Thrones Season Six and 2018 Game of Thrones Season Seven. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://hexus.net/tech/news/graphics/129206-nvidia-geforce-rtx-2080-ti-overclocked-294ghz/ | Nvidia GeForce RTX 2080 Ti overclocked to 2.94GHz ... | Tags: NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), GALAX. Quick Link: HEXUS.net/qad6fw. Add to My
Vault: x. Overclocker OGS has overclocked a customised Nvidia GeForce RTX
2080 Ti... | Apr 4, 2019 | HEXUS.net | Overclocker OGS has overclocked a customised Nvidia GeForce RTX 2080 Ti to within a whisker of 3GHz. At the recent Galax OC Gathering 2019, the Greek overclocker managed to run a Galax GeForce RTX 2080 Ti Hall of Fame card at a clock speed of 2.94GHz. OGS then went on to gain the world record in the GPU PI benchmark (for an RTX 2080 Ti), and the world record in 3DMark Performance (for both a single GPU and for an RTX 2080 Ti).
As you would expect, liquid nitrogen was used as the coolant for the GeForce RTX 2080 Ti to achieve the 2.94GHz in the GPU PI test. According to HWBot figures, this is a 118 per cent overclock. The GPU PI test score achieved with the overclocked system was 2.691s - that is how long it took to calculate Pi to the billionth place.
The hardware in OGS's PC was as follows:
- Intel Core i9 9980XE 'Skylake-X' at 6GHz
- Galax GeForce RTX 2080 Ti Hall of Fame at 2.94GHz
- Galaxy HOF DDR4 RAM at 4GHz, CL12-12-12-28
- Asus RoG Rampage VI Extreme Omega motherboard
You can see in the pictures within this article the tall LN2 pot, and other extreme OC paraphernalia that OGS used. The overclocker(s) are seen holding aloft the white PCB of the graphics card in other photos hosted by HWBot.
For reference, the best ever performance in GPU PI is 2.559s - overclocker KingPin used an Nvidia Titan V graphics card to achieve this time/score. HEXUS previously reported on an LN2 overclock of an Nvidia GeForce RTX 2080 Ti reaching 2.415GHz, back in September last year.
As mentioned in the intro, OGS managed to grasp another world record at the Galax OC Gathering 2019. A different PC system, but one still featuring a Galax GeForce RTX 2080 Ti Hall of Fame graphics card, managed to score 55081 in the single GPU 3DMark11 - Performance test. You can read more, and see the results on the HWBot website. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://winknews.com/2019/04/04/meow-hear-this-study-says-cats-react-to-sound-of-their-name/ | Meow hear this: Study says cats react to sound of their name | This profile adjusts the website to be compatible with screen-readers such
as JAWS, NVDA, VoiceOver, and TalkBack. A screen-reader is software that
is... | Apr 4, 2019 | WINK News | Hey Kitty! Yes, you. A new study suggests household cats can respond to the sound of their own names.
No surprise to you or most cat owners, right? But Japanese scientists said Thursday that they’ve provided the first experimental evidence that cats can distinguish between words that we people say.
So you’re kind of like dogs, whose communication with people has been studied a lot more, and who’ve been shown to recognize hundreds of words if they’re highly trained. Sorry if the comparison offends you, Kitty.
Atsuko Saito of Sophia University in Tokyo says there’s no evidence cats actually attach meaning to our words, not even their own names. Instead, they’ve learned that when they hear their names they often get rewards like food or play, or something bad like a trip to the vet. And they hear their names a lot. So the sound of it becomes special, even if they don’t really understand it refers to their identity.
Saito and colleagues describe the results of their research in the journal Scientific Reports. In four experiments with 16 to 34 animals, each cat heard a recording of its owner’s voice, or another person’s voice, that slowly recited a list of four nouns or other cat’s names, followed by the cat’s own name.
Many cats initially reacted — such as by moving their heads, ears or tails — but gradually lost interest as the words were read. The crucial question was whether they’d respond more to their name.
Sure enough, on average, these cats perked up when they heard their own name.
Kristyn Vitale, who studies cat behavior and the cat-human bond at Oregon State University in Corvallis but didn’t participate in the new work, said the results “make complete sense to me.”
Vitale, who said she has trained cats to respond to verbal commands, agreed that the new results don’t mean that cats assign a sense of self to their names. It’s more like being trained to recognize a sound, she said.
Monique Udell, who also studies animal behavior at Oregon State, said the study shows “cats are paying attention to you, what you say and what you do, and they’re learning from it.” | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://hexus.net/tech/reviews/laptop/129095-aorus-15/ | Review: Aorus 15 - Laptop | Tags: AORUS, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA). Quick Link:
HEXUS.net/qad6ch. Add to My Vault: x. Page Jump: ========== 1 -
Introduction... | Apr 5, 2019 | HEXUS.net | Introduction
The recently announced Aorus 15 gaming laptop comes as a pleasant surprise. We had expected the Gigabyte subsidiary to simply refresh its existing X5 Series with GeForce RTX innards, but the X3, X5 and X7 have all been marked as end-of-life, and though we suspect successors may be unveiled at Computex, we now have an all-new alternative to consider in the meantime.
So, what is this mysterious Aorus 15 and where does it fit in? Whereas the X5 served as a premium choice for gamers seeking high-end components in a super-sleek package, the new 15 is toned down in favour of a more attractive street price.
The supposed downgrades are evident when it comes to size and feel. Dimensions of 361mm x 246mm x 24.4mm aren't particularly bulbous for a gaming laptop of this ilk, yet the slight increase in thickness is felt, with the Aorus 15 coming across as chunkier than its X5 predecessor. There's still some flex to the display lid and keyboard tray, yet overall build quality remains suitably strong, and we suspect most gamers would happily take the so-called 'lesser' chassis if the price is right.
What sort of figures are we talking about? Well, prices seem to have dropped somewhat quickly in the weeks following launch. The entry-level model that we have in for review features RTX 2060 graphics and currently retails at £1,750. What's interesting is that the next model up raises the bar with RTX 2070 graphics and costs little more, coming in at £1,800. Both feature a Core i7-8750H processor, 16GB of DDR4 memory and a 512GB M.2 SSD, and unless we're mistaken, the £1,800 SKU is, at the time of writing, one of the more affordable gaming laptops to come equipped with RTX 2070 graphics.
Given that the Aero 15 from parent company Gigabyte already caters for prosumers willing to spend big for gaming credentials, it makes sense for the Aorus equivalent to be aimed squarely at enthusiast gamers on a budget. That being the case, it is no surprise to find that the Aorus 15 is more overt than the admittedly much dearer Aero. The keyboard is eye-catching due to the white surrounds that emphasise the RGB lighting, the angled gaps between the display lid and keyboard tray are an acquired taste, and the LEDs that shine from the front corners of the system are just unnecessary.
On the other hand, the Aorus is some £600 cheaper than the Aero, and though you sacrifice elegance, you get plenty in terms of horsepower. Our entry-level review unit packs an Intel Core i7-8750H processor, 16GB DDR4-2666 in a dual-channel configuration, a 512GB Intel 760p M.2 SSD, a 2TB hard disk for secondary storage, and Nvidia GeForce RTX 2060 graphics. That's a full-fat GPU, by the way, not a weakened Max-Q offering, and it is well-suited to the 15.6in IPS panel armed with 1,920x1,080 resolution and fast 144Hz refresh rate.
There's plenty of room around the sides for generous connectivity options and Aorus doesn't disappoint. The right side is home to a pair of USB 3.1 Type-A and an audio jack, over on the left there's Killer Gigabit Ethernet, another USB 3.1 Type-A, and a microSD card slot, while around back you'll find USB 3.1 Type-C, mini-DisplayPort 1.3, HDMI 2.0, as well as a connector for the 180W external power supply.
It's a shame there's no love for Thunderbolt 3, but what's most strange is the lack of support for Nvidia Optimus. We're accustomed to seeing gaming laptops automatically switch between the Intel IGP and Nvidia GPU in order to preserve battery life, but the Aorus 15 relies on the GeForce at all times. We had assumed this to indicate support for G-Sync adaptive framerate synchronisation - G-Sync and Optimus are mutually exclusive, so it tends to be one or the other - but the Aorus 15 goes without either technology, and we suspect there might be some repercussions in the upcoming benchmarks.
In terms of usage, the backlit keyboard has a smooth action with a good amount of key travel - though we'd argue the inclusion of a numpad makes it a little cramped - and the precision trackpad is really nice and large. Sound output from the upward-firing stereo speakers also packs a surprising punch, and in keeping with other recent Gigabyte laptops, we like the fact that the Aorus 15 takes a relatively clean approach to software and presentation. Many of the usual branding stickers are lumped together in one easily removable sticker on the palm rest, and there's little in the way of bloatware.
Whether or not the Windows installation will be deemed 'clean' depends on your appreciation of Gigabyte's persistence with AI. Powered by Microsoft Azure, the pre-loaded AI software claims to maximise performance by using machine learning to dynamically distribute power to CPU and GPU depending on workload. Our previous testing has shown negligible real-world benefit, and given that users need to allow Gigabyte to collect usage data in order for the AI to function, we suspect most enthusiasts will simply choose to turn AI off. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://hexus.net/tech/news/laptop/129251-acer-slide-details-nitro-gaming-laptops-gtx-1650-graphics/ | Acer slide details Nitro gaming laptops with GTX 1650 ... | Tags: Acer (TPE:2353), NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA). Quick Link: HEXUS.net/qad6hd.
Add to My Vault: x. A presentation slide that appears to confirm upcoming
laptops... | Apr 5, 2019 | HEXUS.net | A presentation slide that appears to confirm upcoming laptops featuring Nvidia GeForce GTX 1660Ti and GTX 1650 GPUs has been leaked. The slide is claimed to be from an Acer presentation and was shared by VideoCardz and I_Leak_VN on Twitter - but the original Chinese language source page seems to have been taken down.
In the screen above you can see a trio of laptops from Acer. The rows in the slide can be roughly translated as follows:
- Construction features
- Screen
- Intel processor gen
- Graphics card
- Battery
- Storage
These are Nitro branded gaming laptops and the slide compares 'old and new'. The laptop in the leftmost column is the existing 15.6-inch Acer Nitro 5 AN515-52 which you can read about in depth on the official Acer product pages. To the right of this laptop are two columns outlining the specs of new and unannounced Acer Nitro Gaming laptops, the 15.6-inch Acer Nitro 5 AN515-54, and the 17.3-inch Acer Nitro 7 AN517-51.
In the first column you can see that the new generation Nitro gaming laptops feature a new carbon fibre textured finish. Furthermore, the screen bezels have been reduced to 7mm (applies to the left and right only, it appears). Next we see that there are some screen updates available. For example, the new Nitro 5 AN515-54 has the option of an FHD 144Hz panel with 3ms response time. The third colum says that these new laptops come packing Intel's 9th Gen Coffee Lake H series CPUs. The fifth and sixth rows provide info on batteries and storage available. Of particular appeal will be the inclusion of two PCIe NVMe M.2 SSD slots.
Moving on to the graphics card options for buyers, the 15.6-inch model can be configured with a choice of Nvidia GeForce GTX 1660Ti, GTX 1650, or GTX 1050 GPUs. The 17-incher doesn't offer the GTX 1050 option. This part of the listing is significant because Nvidia hasn't officially made any mention of a GeForce GTX 1650 for desktop or mobile.
The VideoCardz report says that the desktop variant of the GTX 1650 is expected to come packing 4GB GDDR5 memory across the 128-bit interface and will launch on or around 22nd April. It adds that the mobile variant will arrive in line with the launch of the 9th gen Intel Coffee Lake H platform.
Meanwhile, I've been emailed by Acer about its upcoming product splurge dubbed next@acer, which takes place in New York on 11th April (11am EDT, 5pm BST). The event will be live-streamed on YouTube. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/legal-and-compliance/employment-law/pages/ssn-no-match-letters-return.aspx | SSN No-Match Letters Return | This profile adjusts the website to be compatible with screen-readers such
as JAWS, NVDA, VoiceOver, and TalkBack. A screen-reader is software that
is... | Apr 4, 2019 | SHRM | After seven-year hiatus, Social Security Administration is again notifying employers when W-2 records don’t match employee Social Security numbers. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://hexus.net/tech/news/laptop/131033-nvidia-studio-certified-creator-laptops-unveiled/ | Nvidia Studio certified creator laptops unveiled - Laptop - News | Tags: NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Acer (TPE:2353), ASUSTeK (TPE:2357), Dell
(NASDAQ:DELL), HP (NYSE:HPQ), Razer, MSI, Gigabyte (TPE:2376). | May 27, 2019 | HEXUS.net | Nvidia has unveiled the Nvidia Studio creative platform at Computex 2019. Nvidia Studio is a certification program where high-end creator PCs are designed to meet Nvidia's requirements of an RTX GPU, and run the Nvidia Studio Stack of specialised SDKs and dedicated Studio Drivers. Furthermore, Nvidia supports the scheme with "rigorous hardware and software testing for top creative applications and workflows".
Seventeen new Nvidia Studio creative laptops were unveiled at Computex today. Devices sporting the new RTX Studio badge will be sold and marketed by the likes of Acer, Asus, Dell, Gigabyte, HP, MSI and Razer. Armed with an Nvidia Studio laptop, designers will be able to "create at the Speed of Imagination," claims the Nvidia marketing department.
The goal seems to be to shift more designers from CPU-based rendering to GPU-accelerated rendered graphics. However, it is hard to think that anyone working in the target apps such as Autodesk Maya 2019, Autodesk 3ds Max 2020, Blackmagic Design DaVinci Resolve 16, Daz3D Daz Studio, and Unreal Engine 4 will be unaware of the benefits of a powerful dedicated GPU. Instead it sounds like a branding barrier, like Intel's Ultrabook initiative.
"Nvidia Studio pairs RTX GPUs, which enable real-time ray tracing, AI processing and high-resolution video editing, with studio-grade software to surpass the growing demands of today's creators," said Jason Paul, general manager of GeForce software and technology at Nvidia. "The new RTX Studio laptops are the perfect tool for creatives who need desktop-class performance while on the go."
As well as the consumer RTX GPUs were are very familiar with (the GeForce RTX 2080, 2070 and 2060 GPUs), Nvidia Studio machines are being sold with the newly announced Quadro RTX 5000, 4000 and 3000 GPUs. This hardware plus the Nvidia Studio Stack of specialised SDKs and dedicated Studio Drivers means that a Quadro RTX 5000-based laptop, which includes 16GB of graphics memory, the largest available in a laptop, can edit video and render 3D imagery up to 7x faster than a MacBook Pro - and work on complex and large models that wouldn't be practical otherwise.
Nvidia SDKs and APIs help developers make the most of the hardware, meanwhile Nvidia Studio Drivers undergo extensive testing in top creative apps from the likes of Adobe, Autodesk, Avid, Blackmagic Design, Epic, Maxon and Unity. The Nvidia Studio drivers are available today, optimised for many key creative apps.
You will be able to get your hands on the first RTX Studio laptops starting from June. Pricing starts at $1,599, depending upon specs and features. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/t052-s001-13-blue-chip-stocks-to-buy-on-the-dip/index.html | 13 Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy on the Next Dip | Nvidia. Market value: $88.4 billion. Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA, $145.15) is
one of the great “story stocks” of the past few... | May 28, 2019 | Kiplinger | 13 Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy on the Next Dip
There’s an old Wall Street saying that goes, “Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.” No one really knows who originally said it, but its meaning is clear.
There’s an old Wall Street saying that goes, “Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.” No one really knows who originally said it, but its meaning is clear. You can make money in a rising market or a falling market if you’re disciplined. But if you hunt for stocks to buy while being greedy, sloppy and impatient, things might not work out as you hope.
This is a time to be patient. We’re more than a decade into a truly epic bull market that has seen the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index appreciate by well over 300%. While value investors might still find a few bargains out there, the market is by most reasonable metrics richly valued.
The S&P 500’s trailing price-to-earnings ratio sits at a lofty 21. The long-term historical average is around 16, and there have only been a handful of instances in history in which the collection of blue-chip stocks has breached 20. It’s expensive from a revenue standpoint, too — the index trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 2.1, meaning today’s market is priced at 1990s internet mania levels.
The beauty of being an individual investor is that you reserve the right to sit on your hands. Unlike professional money managers, you have no mandate to be 100% invested at all times. You can be patient and wait for your moment.
Here are 13 solid blue-chip stocks to buy that look interesting now, but will be downright attractive on a dip. Any of these would make a fine addition to a portfolio at the right price. And should this little bout of volatility in May snowball into a correction or proper bear market, that day might come sooner than you think.
Disclaimer
Data is as of May 27.
Amazon.com
- Market value: $897.7 billion
Let’s start with what is arguably the most influential company of the past 25 years: internet retailer Amazon.com (AMZN, $1,823.28). Amazon didn’t invent online commerce, but it certainly brought it into the mainstream. It started out as a humble online bookstore, but today, Amazon is effectively the “everything” store and has all other retailers scrambling to catch up.
Of course, Amazon is not just retail anymore. The company also has changed cloud computing as we know it via its Amazon Web Service platform. Moreover, it’s building out a logistics and shipping empire, and it competes head-on in streaming content with industry leader Netflix (NFLX). It seems there is no corner of the economy that Amazon isn’t busily disrupting.
Given that Amazon is the defining company of our era, you could argue that buying it now, even at today’s prices, is reasonable. Warren Buffett’s team certainly seemed to think so, as Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) initiated a new position in Amazon last quarter worth nearly a billion dollars. After all, despite the company’s gargantuan size, it’s still growing its annual revenues at a 17% annual clip, and it more than doubled its quarterly earnings in Q1.
All the same, it might pay to wait. This is understandably a widely owned stock, but should the market continue to be wobbly, AMZN might experience an exodus of weaker, less committed holders. The stock lost nearly a third of its value during the final-quarter selloff of 2018 thanks largely to broad market volatility. That proved to be a great buying opportunity — so keep Amazon on your list of stocks to buy the next time we get a similar dip.
Walt Disney
- Market value: $238.7 billion
As with Amazon, Walt Disney (DIS, $132.79) is a blue-chip stock you would likely do just fine buying now, even at today’s prices.
Disney owns the most valuable collection of programming on the planet. It owns Marvel Studios, whose recent Avengers: Endgame blockbuster has grossed $2.6 billion worldwide and is creeping up on Avatar as the top-grossing movie of all time. Disney also owns the Star Wars franchise, which should score another major box-office haul when Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker releases later this year.
These two movies alone would make any other studio’s year. Yet Disney also has a Toy Story sequel, a Frozen sequel and a Lion King reboot coming later this year, on top of nearly two dozen other movies.
The thing is, movies aren’t an ideal business — they’re expensive to make, and the revenues tend to come in a big lump on the release. But that’s OK, because Disney is a diversified media conglomerate whose operations also include several TV channels (including sports network ESPN), its theme parks, merchandise ... and later this year, a Netflix-like streaming service called Disney+.
Half of Americans aged 22 to 45 watched literally zero cable TV in 2018. They still absorbed content — they just did it via streaming services such as Netflix, Hulu and Amazon Prime. Disney will enter this arena later in 2019 and likely will become a major competitor the moment it launches.
Disney isn’t prohibitively expensive by any means, trading at nearly 21 times analysts’ estimates for next year’s earnings. But if Disney were to drop a good $10 to $15, putting it back at early April levels, it would be an outright steal.
Microsoft
- Market value: $967.4 billion
Back in 2007, as Apple (AAPL) was launching the iPhone and Microsoft (MSFT, $126.24) was languishing in the stagnating PC era, few people imagined Microsoft would ever become the world’s most valuable company again.
But that was before Microsoft embraced cloud computing with gusto. Microsoft still is the world leader in operating systems and office productivity software. But it has leveraged the cloud to turn that productivity software into a lucrative subscription business. But its booming Azure cloud business has turned the company into a growth darling again, allowing it to reclaim the title of the world’s most valuable company.
Amazon’s AWS remained the dominant cloud leader with nearly a third of the total market as of the end of 2018. But Microsoft was solidly in second place, with 16.5% of the market, and its Azure is expanding at a faster clip. Amazon’s AWS posted very impressive 46.3% growth last year, but Microsoft’s Azure grew at a blistering 75.9% clip.
Given Microsoft’s longstanding relationships with corporate and government IT departments, don’t be surprised in Azure is nipping at AWS’s heels in another couple years.
But as quickly as Microsoft is growing, this is by no means a cheap stock. MSFT trades at a lofty 28 times trailing earnings and 25 times future earnings estimates. Rather than chase this one higher, you might be better off waiting for a pullback.
MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert crunched the numbers back to 1980 and found that the largest S&P 500 stock (by market value) at the end of each year went on the underperform the blue-chip index over the following 12 months by a full 4 percentage points on average. It could be different this time, but history suggests it’s better to be patient here.
McDonald’s
- Market value: $151.7 billion
- McDonald’s (MCD, $197.77) has a well-deserved reputation as a survivor. Its food isn’t particularly good. There certainly are tastier burgers to be found elsewhere, and there certainly are far trendier places to eat.
Yet while many of its competitors have risen or fallen over the decades, McDonald’s has managed to survive and thrive because it constantly adapts. The company is willing to shake up its menu every few years and get in front of customer trends. It proved this most recently with its successful launch of all-day breakfast in 2015.
McDonald’s management also was smart enough to read the handwriting on the wall regarding worker pay. Fast-food restaurants are at the front line of the “fight for $15” movement, which aims to raise the minimum wage to at least $15 per hour. To combat the risk of rising labor costs, McDonald’s has invested heavily in in-store ordering kiosks and mobile ordering, both of which significantly reduce labor needs and make the ordering process more streamlined.
All the same, while the burgers are affordable, MCD’s stock price is looking a bit rich. The shares trade for 26 times earnings and 23 times estimates on future profits, valuing McDonald’s more like a tech stock than a burger chain.
Put McDonald’s on your list of blue-chip stocks to buy at lower altitudes. A drop of $40 to $50 would put MCD at mouth-watering prices, though it would require a lot of help from the broader market. But even a modest dip would make McDonald’s shares much more palatable.
Starbucks
- Market value: $92.2 billion
Other than McDonald’s golden arches, perhaps no other food service logo is more iconic than that of Starbucks (SBUX, $76.15). As of the end of last quarter, the chain had surpassed 30,000 stores globally, giving it the third-most locations of any food service company in the world. That’s significantly more than KFC’s approximately 23,000 locations and within striking distance of No. 2 McDonald’s, which has more than 36,000. (For the trivia buffs out there, Subway is the undisputed king with more than 42,000.)
Give it another couple years, and Starbucks might actually surpass McDonald’s. Last quarter, SBUX reported a 7% increase over the previous year in its number of stores globally.
Importantly, Starbucks isn’t just growing by spreading — it also continues to find ways to improve its same-store sales. In its most recent quarter, same-store sales were up 3% globally, including 4% in American stores — almost unbelievable given the maturity of the U.S. market.
Starbucks has become more than a place to buy caffeine. It’s a place to meet a friend or date. It’s a place to do a business deal, or for the aspiring entrepreneur, a makeshift office. It has become an indispensable part of the landscape, and as a result, SBUX makes sense to own in a long-term portfolio.
But given that it’s priced at 33 times trailing earnings, don’t rush to buy it today. Wait for a 10% to 20% pullback, which has been a common occurrence even during the stock’s higher-growth periods.
Berkshire Hathaway
- Market value: $494.7 billion
Over the long course of Warren Buffett’s career, his Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, $201.69) has come to be synonymous with quality. Apart from its portfolio of blue-chip stocks — which includes large positions in Apple, Coca-Cola (KO) and Bank of America (BAC), among others — Berkshire owns a vast collection of privately held businesses covering everything from furniture to candy to insurance.
Berkshire Hathaway has been a money-making machine over its life. Between 1965 and 2018, Berkshire grew its book value by an astounding 1,091,899% and its share price by 2,472,627%. To put that in perspective, the S&P 500 increased a comparatively paltry 15,019%. Looking at annual numbers, Berkshire Hathaway’s share price has grown at a compounded annual rate of 20.5% per year, which is more than double the 9.7% produced by the S&P 500 over the same period.
It’s not realistic to expect those kinds of returns going forward, of course. To start, Mr. Buffett won’t be with us forever. He’s 88 years old, and his partner Charlie Munger is 95.
But even more critically, Berkshire Hathaway is a much bigger company than it was in 1965. Back then, Buffett could be nimble. Today, Berkshire Hathaway is the fifth-largest stock in the S&P 500 by market cap, worth nearly half a trillion dollars. At that size, the number of deals you can do that would have a meaningful impact on returns gets a lot smaller.
So, while Berkshire Hathaway is a financial powerhouse that likely will be alive and well decades after Mr. Buffett has left this world, it doesn’t make sense to pay a large premium for it today.
Were BRK.B to fall a good 15%, that would take its price-to-book-value ratio to about 1.1. That’s below the 1.2 ratio threshold that Buffett originally set when he authorized repurchases a few years ago (he has since relaxed that threshold). If Buffett himself considers Berkshire a deal at those levels, we should too.
Nvidia
- Market value: $88.4 billion
Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA, $145.15) is one of the great “story stocks” of the past few years. Nvidia is particularly well-known for its graphics processing units (GPUs), which are popular with gamers. But it just so happened that the chips were particularly useful for another task: mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Nvidia’s chips were in high demand from cryptocurrency miners, as the chips were adept at handling the computational problems that support the blockchain. Unfortunately, once the crypto bubble burst, so did Nvidia’s stock price. Shares today are worth about half of their 2018 high.
Even after a plunge like that, shares are priced at 27 times trailing earnings and 20 times next year’s expected earnings. That’s not a nosebleed valuation by the standards of Nvidia’s history, but it’s definitely on the pricey side.
Will cryptocurrency mining make a comeback? Maybe, maybe not. Only time will tell. But even in the absence of crypto demand, Nvidia is the premier GPU maker, and its products also are used in numerous emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and driverless automobiles. That is unlikely to change any time soon.
You could buy NVDA at today’s prices and probably end up getting respectable returns over the next few years. But $110 to $120 would be a much better entry point and would take what’s left of the speculative froth out of this stock.
Johnson & Johnson
- Market value: $368.7 billion
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, $138.85) is the definition of a blue-chip stock. It’s been in business since 1886 — longer than 12 of the 50 states have been in the Union. Along with Microsoft, it is one of only two companies with a AAA credit rating. And, most attractively for long-term shareholders, the company also has raised its dividend for 57 consecutive years and shows no sign of breaking that streak any time soon.
No one knows exactly what the future may hold, but if we were to make a list of companies most likely to be around a century from now, J&J would rank highly on that list.
Johnson & Johnson is the world’s largest health-products company in the world. Its brands include Listerine, Aveeno and Neutrogena, among others, and JNJ also is the maker of Tylenol, Benadryl, Zyrtec and even the humble Band-Aid. It also boasts vast pharmaceutical and medical-device businesses.
There’s really no debating Johnson & Johnson’s quality as a company. But it’s fair to debate its price. JNJ trades at 4.6 times sales, which is the kind of valuation you would see on a high-growth tech stock.
There’s no reason to believe Johnson & Johnson will outperform the broader market at this starting valuation. But were we to see a nice 10% to 20% dip, JNJ would qualify under stocks to buy and hold for the remainder of your life — and probably the lives of your heirs.
Alphabet
- Market value: $790.5 billion
It’s hard to imagine a world without Google. Yet the search engine, controlled by parent Alphabet (GOOGL, $1,138.61) is only a little more than 20 years old. Started by Larry Page and Sergey Brin as doctorate students at Stanford, the company has grown to become the most dominant information and media firm in the world. Its Class A (GOOGL) and Class C (GOOG) shares combined make Alphabet the fourth largest company in the world by market cap after Microsoft, Amazon and Apple.
Alphabet has had mixed results monetizing its non-search-related businesses. But that’s OK. You could make a convincing that the ultimate purpose of virtually all of Alphabet’s businesses — everything from Gmail to the Android operating system — is to improve the quality of the search engine and drive more traffic to it.
Alphabet is a financial powerhouse. Its net cash and marketable securities (cash and marketable securities minus debt) is equal to roughly 13% of its market cap, and its net profit margins are consistently over 20%.
The company also has managed to stay relevant in a fast-changing marketplace. It survived the rise of social media and the transition away from desktop computing to mobile computing with barely a snag. And almost unbelievable, its Google division accounts for nearly 40% of all U.S. digital ad spending.
If Alphabet has any real risks, it would simply be that of increased government oversight. But so far, there is no indication of a major move that would truly curtail Alphabet’s profit model.
Alphabet should trade at a premium to the broader market given its fat margins, lean balance sheet and total dominance of its industry; a value of 29 times trailing earnings, and 5.6 times sales, still is rich. But were Alphabet to dip even a modest 10%, investors could feel more confident about not overpaying.
Procter & Gamble
- Market value: $267.6 billion
- Procter & Gamble (PG, $106.69) is the world’s leading consumer products company. It’s a premier maker and brander of baby diapers, laundry detergent, razor blades, toothpaste and a lot more.
It also has taken its share of licks over the past decade.
To start, the 2008 meltdown and its aftermath created a wave of cost-cutting that rivals anything seen since the Great Depression. This encouraged a lot of consumers, particularly younger ones, to switch to cheaper store brands for many of their basic products.
Compounding this is a change in the traditional marketing landscape. Millennial consumers are less likely to be influenced by traditional advertising, in part because they largely abandoned cable TV. They’re far more likely to respond to online product reviews.
This created a tough environment for P&G, but the company has adapted. Revenues and net margins trended lower between 2009 and 2016 but have since found a bottom and trended higher. The company has changed with the times, which is what you expect best-in-class blue-chip stocks to do.
As with Johnson & Johnson, it’s easy to believe that Procter & Gamble will be alive and kicking 100 years from now. But it’s questionable whether it makes sense to pay 25 times earnings (and 22 times earnings estimates) for a mature business like this. So rather than buy PG stock now and chase it higher, wait for a pullback.
3M
- Market value: $95.7 billion
- 3M (MMM, $166.09) is one of the world’s premier industrial and manufacturing companies. You likely have scores of its products in your home or office. Scotch-Brite scrubbing and cleaning supplies, Ace bandages, Scotch tape and Post-it Notes are some of the companies more recognizable brands.
But that’s not all the company does. It also builds industrial-strength products for everything from the automotive to mining sectors.
Thus far, we’ve compiled a list of stocks to buy once they drop in price. But 3M is a bit different. It’s arguably already cheap enough, trading at 17 times trailing earnings and 16 times estimates, and yielding a respectable 3.5% in dividends.
Here, you’ll want to exercise patience on 3M to avoid catching that proverbial falling knife. The shares have been in freefall since late April, losing about a quarter of their value.
In the stock market, objects in motion tend to stay in motion. This is the essence of momentum investing. You generally don’t want to fight the trend. So, don’t buy MMM stock today, but keep an eye on it. If it can avoid hitting new lows for a couple weeks, it could be a sign that the selling has finally exhausted itself and that the stock is ready to enjoy a run higher.
Macy’s
- Market value: $6.5 billion
Another “falling knife” worth considering is department store giant Macy’s (M, $21.01). Macy’s in so many ways was the poster child for a retail economy getting ravaged by Amazon and other online retailers. Macy’s is a mall-based store chain at a time when malls are out of fashion and suffering.
That narrative may be true, but it ignores the fact that Macy’s has a long history of adapting to changing consumer tastes. Macy’s followed consumers off of urban Main Streets and into suburban malls.
And while it took the company a long time to adapt to the realities of internet commerce, Macy’s seems to be finally getting it right. Its adoption of its Buy Online Ship to Store (BOSS) and Vendor Direct programs offer the convenience of online purchasing but also get the customers to come into the store, where they might pick up other items too.
Jeff Middleswart, editor of Behind the Numbers, recently had some positive comments about Macy’s restructuring efforts:
“We like Macy’s because the company has very clear plans on what it is doing and can specify them. Clients know how much we rip companies who continually throw out restructuring plans without showing much in the way of sales or margin gains ...
In the case of Macy’s, they have been remaking the company through a series of large steps including asset sales, remodeling stores, boosting technology, better training of staff, retaining best staff ...”
It’s also worth noting that Macy’s pays an attractive dividend of more than 7%, which is in large part because of its heavy stock losses over the past couple years. If shares can simply buck their falling trend for a month or two, that might give investors time to realize the value proposition.
Nordstrom
- Market value: $5.2 billion
Finally, on the same theme, you can consider fellow department store giant Nordstrom (JWN, $33.50).
Higher-end retailers such as Nordstrom have fared better in the age of Amazon than mid-tier retailers such as Macy’s. But they’ve still taken a beating. In 2015, Nordstrom traded hands at more than $80 per share. Today, the shares fetch less than half that.
Amazon really is taking over the world. That’s why it’s included as the first company on this list. But there are limits of what Amazon can realistically do in higher-end clothing and apparel. If you want personalized attention from staff, on-site tailoring and a pleasant shopping “experience,” it still makes sense to go to the mall. Nordstrom fills that niche.
The company isn’t a dinosaur either. About 30% of its sales now come from online purchases. This may surprise you, but Nordstrom is a top-10 internet retailer, according to Barron’s.
JWN shares have been in freefall for this entire calendar year, so you probably don’t want to run out and load up your portfolio with them today. But put Nordstrom on your list of stocks to buy ... then just be patient and wait for shares to at least trade sideways for a month or two before you consider buying. You’d be getting one of America’s premier retailers at a bargain-basement price.
Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA is the Chief Investment Officer of Sizemore Capital Management LLC, a registered investment advisor based in Dallas, Texas, where he specializes in dividend-focused portfolios and in building alternative allocations with minimal correlation to the stock market.
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https://marketrealist.com/2019/05/nvidias-gross-margin-hit-by-weaker-product-mix/ | NVIDIA's Gross Margin Hit by Weaker Product Mix | NVIDIA (NVDA) has the most advanced GPU (graphics processing unit)
technology, which helps it command a higher price for its GPUs. Puja Tayal
- Author. | May 27, 2019 | Market Realist | NVIDIA’s Gross Margin Hit by Weaker Product Mix
NVIDIA (NVDA) has the most advanced GPU (graphics processing unit) technology, which helps it command a higher price for its GPUs.
NVIDIA’s profitability
NVIDIA (NVDA) has the most advanced GPU (graphics processing unit) technology, which helps it command a higher price for its GPUs, thereby increasing its ASP (average selling price).
A major contributor to NVIDIA’s gross margin is its product mix. The gross margin of the data center and professional visualization business is higher than the company’s average of ~60%, whereas those of the game console Tegra SoC (system on chip) and crypto-related GPUs are lower.
NVIDIA’s gross margin
In the first quarter of fiscal 2020, NVIDIA’s non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principle) gross profit fell 37% YoY (year-over-year) to $1.3 billion, or 59% of its revenue. This 37% decline was driven by a 31% YoY decline in revenue and a weaker product mix. The company saw a decline in higher-margin data center GPUs and a surge in mid and low-range gaming GPUs.
On a sequential basis, NVIDIA’s gross profit rose 6%, as a $128 million charge from dynamic random-access memory boards and other components (which had affected its previous quarter’s gross profit) was absent in the quarter.
In the second quarter of fiscal 2020, NVIDIA expects a non-GAAP gross margin of 59.5%. On NVIDIA’s fiscal 2020 first-quarter earnings call, its CFO, Colette Kress, stated that its gross margin would benefit from 15% sequential revenue growth, which would be partially offset by a weaker product mix that’s skewed toward the lower-margin Tegra SoC for the Nintendo Switch. | NVDA | 424.64 |
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as JAWS, NVDA, VoiceOver, and TalkBack. A screen-reader is software that
is... | May 28, 2019 | Aviation Week | Thailand Contracts KAI To Upgrade T-50 Family Aircraft
KUALA LUMPUR—Thailand has contracted Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) to upgrade four T-50-family trainer-attack aircraft to the light-attack standard, including radar. The upgrade work, worth $52 million, will be completed by October 2021, KAI said. The program follows a 2017 order for eight more...
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Did you know? Aviation Week has won top honors multiple times in the Jesse H. Neal National Business Journalism Awards, the business-to-business media equivalent of the Pulitzer Prizes. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://suffolktimes.timesreview.com/2019/05/red-white-and-blue-in-greenport-as-memorial-day-parade-comes-to-village/ | Red, white and blue in Greenport as Memorial Day Parade ... | This profile adjusts the website to be compatible with screen-readers such
as JAWS, NVDA, VoiceOver, and TalkBack. A screen-reader is software that
is... | May 27, 2019 | The Suffolk Times | Hundreds of supporters lined the streets of Greenport from Steamboat Corner to Mitchell Park as the town’s annual Memorial Day Parade came to the village Monday.
Rotating each year across different parts of the town, this is the first time since 2013 the full parade was held in Greenport. The 2016 parade set for the village was canceled due to weather, though a smaller group marched anyway.
With bright, sunny skies on an unseasonably warm day Monday, the parade was at full strength this time around. A brief ceremony was held at the war monuments at Steamboat Corner, before the procession marched down Main Street to Front Street before retiring at Mitchell Park.
Each of the town’s fire departments participated along with veteran’s groups, elected officials, school marching bands and more.
The day continued with activities at the American Legion Hall.
A parade was also held earlier Monday in Orient and Greenport’s annual dock ceremony took place prior to the town parade.
Local veterans groups, including the Greenport, Mattituck and Southold American Legions and Veterans of Foreign Wars kicked off the parade. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Local veterans groups, including the Greenport, Mattituck and Southold American Legions and Veterans of Foreign Wars kicked off the parade. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
You’re never too young to display patriotism. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
You’re never too young to display patriotism. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Local veterans groups, including the Greenport, Mattituck and Southold American Legions and Veterans of Foreign Wars kicked off the parade. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Local veterans groups, including the Greenport, Mattituck and Southold American Legions and Veterans of Foreign Wars kicked off the parade. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Local veterans groups, including the Greenport, Mattituck and Southold American Legions and Veterans of Foreign Wars kicked off the parade. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Local veterans groups, including the Greenport, Mattituck and Southold American Legions and Veterans of Foreign Wars kicked off the parade. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Local veterans groups, including the Greenport, Mattituck and Southold American Legions and Veterans of Foreign Wars kicked off the parade. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
You’re never too young to display patriotism. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Local veterans groups, including the Greenport, Mattituck and Southold American Legions and Veterans of Foreign Wars kicked off the parade. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Local veterans groups, including the Greenport, Mattituck and Southold American Legions and Veterans of Foreign Wars kicked off the parade. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
The North Fork NJROTC marched under the direction of Major William Grigonis. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Major William Grigonis. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
The North Fork NJROTC marched under the direction of Major William Grigonis. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
The North Fork NJROTC marched under the direction of Major William Grigonis. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Elected officials from Southold Town and the Village of Greenport marched together, including Town Supervisor Scott Russell and Mayor George Hubbard. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Town Supervisor Scott Russell (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Greenport Mayor George Hubbard. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Local Scouts. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
The Greenport marching band. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
The Greenport marching band. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
The Greenport marching band. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
The Greenport marching band. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
The Greenport marching band. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Rosalie Rung of the Greenport Fire Department. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Greenport’s 1933 fire truck. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Greneport ambulance makes the turn from Main to Front. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
The Southold marching band. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
The Southold marching band. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Kevin Webster of the East Marion Fire Department. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Each of the town’s fire departments took part in the parade Monday. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Each of the town’s fire departments took part in the parade Monday. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Each of the town’s fire departments took part in the parade Monday. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Each of the town’s fire departments took part in the parade Monday. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Each of the town’s fire departments took part in the parade Monday. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Each of the town’s fire departments took part in the parade Monday. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Each of the town’s fire departments took part in the parade Monday. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Each of the town’s fire departments took part in the parade Monday. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Each of the town’s fire departments took part in the parade Monday. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Each of the town’s fire departments took part in the parade Monday. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Each of the town’s fire departments took part in the parade Monday. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Each of the town’s fire departments took part in the parade Monday. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Each of the town’s fire departments took part in the parade Monday. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Each of the town’s fire departments took part in the parade Monday. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Mattituck Lions Club Strawberry Queen Teagan Nine. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Kissed by a queen. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Some marchers paid homage to the North Fork’s deep agricultural roots. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Some marchers paid homage to the North Fork’s deep agricultural roots. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Some marchers paid homage to the North Fork’s deep agricultural roots. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Some marchers paid homage to the North Fork’s deep agricultural roots. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Kate Nickles of the Little Red Barn. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Emily Williams of Cutchogue hands out candy to fellow kids. (Credit: Grant Parpan)
Editor’s Note: An earlier version of this post stated that the Greenport Fire Department Carnival continued Monday. It also failed to mention all the monuments at Steamboat Corner. We regret the errors. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4275238-nvidia-should-not-wage-price-war-against-amd | Nvidia Should Not Wage A Price War Against AMD (NASDAQ ... | Nvidia Should Not Wage A Price War Against AMD. Jul. 16, 2019 1:41 PM
ETAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), NVDA... | Jul 16, 2019 | Seeking Alpha | Nvidia Should Not Wage A Price War Against AMD
Summary
- Nvidia has been historically blessed by its superior GPU product performance.
- Nvidia has a relatively flat demand curve; units demanded is mainly driven by product performance and less by product pricing.
- Nvidia has felt the increasing pressure to respond to AMD’s new GPU product roll out at a low ASP.
- Nvidia’s inelastic demand curve suggests that changing prices will have less impact on market share changes.
- As Nvidia stock price has been typically more responsive to revenue and EPS, not to market share, it would be an ineffective defense for Nvidia to wage a price war.
Against both Intel (INTC) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) has used a low pricing strategy to gain market share. At least versus Intel, this strategy has served AMD well. Selling between twice and three times of AMD’s price levels, Intel has lost more than 8% CPU market share to AMD for the last three years. Given that Intel just delayed its Ice Lake server product again by three months to Q4 of 2020, it is imperative that Intel comes up with some kind of defense against AMD’s threat on the CPU market share. Not surprisingly, Intel is rumored to slash the prices of its 8th and 9th Gen Coffee Lake lineups.
Nvidia-AMD Price War?
On Nvidia’s side, it’s no secret that GPU prices have already begun falling, and the trend apparently will continue. Over the last few months, the price of Amazon’s top seller in graphics cards, the XFX Radeon RX 580, has fallen from a high of $260 to $189. The Gigabyte GeForce GTX 1060 Windforce is currently at half off the MSRP around $190. Since Nvidia’s CEO confirmed the lackluster RTX demand, the price drop on products like the EVGA GeForce RTX 2080 XC is not expected to reverse in the short run. Nobody seems to have a clear idea of how long the oversupply of GPU and low prices will continue, but AMD’s Dr. Lisa Su seems to believe that overhanging inventory will be over by the second quarter. Su said she expects that AMD will see improved GPU channel inventory levels, then return to sequential growth. While it’s possible that some of AMD’s older GPUs will continue to enjoy low prices, AMD is banking on demand for its Radeon VII, and eventually Navi, to boost prices once again.
After AMD announced new Radeon GPUs to threaten Nvidia's RTX offerings at their relatively lower prices, Nvidia decided to fight back with the new RTX Super cards, which offer more performance for the same price. Specifically, Nvidia plans to roll out GeForce RTX 2060 Super and RTX 2070 Super cards on July 9 and the RTX 2080 Super on July 23. The Turing-based cards will retail for $399, $499, and $699, respectively. Nvidia says the 2080 Super offers faster performance than its current top-of-the-line Titan Xp. In response, AMD has responded by lowering the price of the new Radeon RX 5700 series of GPUs before they're even officially released.
In a recent tweet, AMD announced that the Radeon RX 5700, 5700 XT, and 5700 XT 50th Anniversary Edition will all start at lower price points than originally expected. The Radeon RX 5700 will now start at $349, $30 below the original price. The RX 5700 XT will now cost $399 instead of $449, and the RX 5700 XT 50th Anniversary Edition will cost $449 instead of $499. In other words, each of AMD’s new cards now match the prices of Nvidia's RTX 2060, 2060 Super, and 2070 Super, respectively. Not surprisingly, Nvidia is tempted to lower prices to combat AMD’s assault on GPU market share.
Market Size More Important Than Market Share
However, lowering prices does not necessarily translate into larger market share. Historically, due to superior product performance, Nvidia has never had to rely on pricing strategy to increase market share. While Nvidia has 2 to 2.5 times of average selling price (ASP) over AMD, its market share has rarely been affected by the relative ASP level. Case in point, Nvidia currently has a near high market share around 80%, while its ASP is also near high around $110, along with AMD’s near low ASP around $20 (Figure 1). Apparently, Nvidia does not own the lion share of the GPU market because of its product being priced relatively cheap. More likely, the large revenue and market share are a result of superior product quality and performance.
As ASP correlates with gross margin, Nvidia’s lowering ASP will almost always lower the gross margin. As a result, it is logical that a high ((low)) ASP will decrease (increase) market share but increase (decrease) EPS. The bottom line is that, since both a better product quality and a lower relative pricing may increase market share, there is little incentive for Nvidia to lower prices and EPS to boost market share, which can be easily achieved by the brand quality. On the other hand, the revenue implication is not as straightforward as it seems. A low pricing strategy will increase unit shipment or a larger market share, but at a lower ASP. The total revenue may or may not increase depending on how much unit shipment will increase in response to ASP decrease.
This is why the effectiveness of a low pricing strategy (against AMD) varies significantly between Intel and Nvidia. With a comparable product competing with Intel, AMD's relatively lower price becomes an important distinguishing advantage to get the market share. But the same price advantage does not play out since Nvidia traditionally has a better GPU card. Gaming users are willing to pay more for a better performing Nvidia card. In fact, Nvidia’s high prices have become a status symbol to signal superior performance. This is also why Nvidia’ stock prices have been traditionally more affected by total revenue (Figure 1A), and EPS (Figure 1B), but not by market share (Figure 1C).
Nvidia “Flat” Demand Curve
If one insists on using pricing strategy to change quantity sold, the “flat” shape of a demand curve may limit the extent of the effectiveness. In terms of how Nvidia unit shipments reacts to any price changes, I displayed Nvidia’s downward sloping demand curve in Figure 3. This is demonstrated by the actual combination between the average price sold and the number of unit (in million) shipment, where the average unit price (AP) is estimated by the revenue per unit sold. It appears that the unit demanded inversely relates to ASP over time, as a typical demand curve would suggest (Figure 2). As Nvidia’s Q1 2019 AP is around $320, there will be quantity gain if the AP is lowered, compared to the quantity loss if the AP is raised (see the current line in Figure 2). At this point, because the demand curve becomes increasingly flat, it would suggest that there will be less quantity loss ((gain)) if the price is raised (lower). The “inelasticity” of the demand curve is equivalent to say that it is “less effective” to lower prices to increase quantity demanded, compared to other times (or price points).
Takeaways
After receiving equally large amount of criticisms from my last two posts, “It’s Time for AMD to Raise Prices” and “Intel Should Lower Prices Soon,” I feel it is only appropriate to complete the third post, “Nvidia Should Not Change Prices”. Compared with Intel’s market share relative to AMD, Nvidia has been mainly blessed by its superior GPU product performance. This is why Nvidia has a relatively flat demand curve that unit demanded is mainly driven by product performance less than by product pricing.
However, in the recent period, all semis' unit shipments, revenue, and stock prices have fallen due to the negative macro picture. As the total “pie” stops growing, Nvidia has felt the need to respond to AMD’s new GPU product roll out at a low ASP. However, Nvidia’s inelastic demand curve would suggest that changing product prices will produce less quantity changes. Or, relative pricing changes will have less impact on market share changes. Furthermore, Nvidia stock price has been typically more responsive to revenue and EPS, not to market share. Therefore, it would be an ineffective defense for Nvidia to get into a price war with AMD by lowering product prices.
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long NVDA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (305)
www.jonpeddie.com/...
www.techradar.com/...Interesting article, sorry if it's already been posted.
in the cpu sector we have Intel winning in games but losing the encoding etc. so intel may have some justification not lowering ita price.
SA scares me at times
"Nvidia has been mainly blessed by its superior GPU product performance."
most consumer domains last decade". Particularly from
Pascal when they changed their strategy for consumer
domains swiftly.
It seems that AMD is going to release new GPUs using rDNA 2.0 by January that will not only have ray tracing but also beat NVDA highest GPU. There will be atleast 6-8 months of lead for AMD before NVDA comes out with new GPU before 2020 using 7nm EUV technology. This is what causing NVDA to panick and they are entering a price war. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://hexus.net/gaming/news/hardware/132803-updated-nintendo-switch-offers-longer-battery-life/ | Updated Nintendo Switch offers longer battery life - Hardware ... | Tags: Nintendo (TYO:7974), NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA). Quick Link:
HEXUS.net/qaebwd. Add to My Vault: x. The official Nintendo Japan website
has listed a new... | Jul 17, 2019 | HEXUS.net | The official Nintendo Japan website has listed a new Switch SKU with a significantly improved battery life. We are not talking about the recently launched Switch Lite handheld-only console here; this is a full-fat Switch which is cosmetically identical to the convertible console most of you will be familiar with. Moreover, this isn't the rumoured Switch Pro console, as it appears to have re-jigged internals that precipitate nothing more than longer untethered battery life.
The new Nintendo Switch will boast a battery life of between 4.5 - 9 hours, depending on what games you are playing. This is a significant upgrade from the original Switch, which offered between 2.5 - 6.5 hours according to Nintendo's reckoning. Nintendo does provide a gameplay comparison example, in Zelda: Breath of the Wild, you'll get 5.5 hours play, rather than about 3 hours, it says.
According to EuroGamer, the new Switch is the same as one that appeared in an American FCC listing recently. The FCC doc indicated that the updated Switch would come with a changed processor and flash storage, but there was no mention of any other changes to its components (battery for example). Thus with the same 4,310mAh battery it is assumed that the new Mariko version of Nvidia's Tegra X1 chip (also used in the Switch Lite) is responsible for the considerable battery life uplift.
As the updated Switch hasn't made it into any third party reviewer or tester as yet, we don't know if the new Tegra X1 SoC will deliver any other benefits. Availability is flagged for August in Japan. Eurogamer's enquiries resulted in Nintendo UK stating that the new Switch would become available here in September. "Consumers should start seeing the new packaging on store shelves starting from early September," a Nintendo UK spokesperson told EuroGamer, "but that will vary by individual stores and locations".
New JoyCon colours on the way too
If you are interested in the full-fat Switch and would like to make sure you get one of the new models you should (wait a couple of months and) "look for the HAC-001(-01) model number and a serial number that starts with XKW," says Engadget. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://hexus.net/gaming/news/pc/132746-grid-2019-minimum-recommended-pc-specs-revealed/ | GRID 2019 minimum and recommended PC specs revealed ... | Tags: Codemasters, AMD (NYSE:AMD), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), NVIDIA
(NASDAQ:NVDA). Quick Link: HEXUS.net/qaebuk. Add to My Vault: x... | Jul 16, 2019 | HEXUS.net | Codemasters has revealed the minimum and recommended PC specs for its GRID card racing game reboot. GRID 2019 uses the Codemasters EGO Engine, the same graphical code behind games such as F1 2019 and Dirt 2.0. At this early stage ahead of release it sounds like the new DirectX 12-only game has quite high recommended hardware specs, and even for the minimum spec gamer there will still be a heavy toll on HDD/SSD storage resources.
The Steam pre-purchase place for GRID 2019 has been updated with the minimum and recommended PC specs as in the table screenshot below. While the minimum spec is rather modest, other than the aforementioned requirement for DX12 and 100GB of spares storage space, the recommended spec is quite high considering the current Steam Survey data.
Above you can see that to play GRID 2019 at recommended levels of image quality, detail, fluidity and so on you will need a modern hexa-core processor from Intel or AMD. In particular, the Intel i5 8600K and AMD Ryzen 5 2600X are specified. For graphics processing Codemasters is recommending the Nvidia GeForce GTX 1080 or AMD Radeon RX590. That seems a rather odd graphical pairing, as more often than not the GTX 1080 would be batting against a Vega 64 from AMD.
You can pre-order GRID 2019 now via Steam where it is listed at £44.99 here in the UK. The game becomes available to play from 11th October - but those who splash out on the Ultimate Edition (£64.99) can access it 3 days early. For information about the game, trailers, and more, check out our previous article, the Steam page, or one of the many videos like the hands-on preview video embedded below. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://hexus.net/gaming/news/pc/132797-remedy-will-need-gtx-1060-rx-580-minimum-play-control/ | Remedy: you will need a GTX 1060 / RX 580 minimum, to play ... | Tags: NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA). Quick Link: HEXUS.net/qaebv5. Add to My Vault:
x. Remedy Entertainment has outlined the minimum and recommended specs
for... | Jul 17, 2019 | HEXUS.net | Remedy Entertainment has outlined the minimum and recommended specs for Control, its upcoming third-person viewpoint supernatural action-adventure video game. The game has been heavily promoted over recent months and is edging closer to release (27th August) on PC, PS4 and Xbox One. However, it is a rather demanding title, we have learned today, with the PC specs being shared on the game's Epic Games Store info page.
In case you haven't seen this game in news or promotional video clips before, you will play as Jesse Faden, the new Director struggling to regain Control of the secretive Federal Bureau of Control (FBC) government agency. You will utilise various powerful supernatural abilities in your quest and go on to defeat a deadly enemy known only as the Hiss, which has invaded and corrupted reality. The EGS describes it more simply as fighting through a deep and unpredictable world using a "combination of supernatural abilities, modifiable loadouts and reactive environments".
As a new game leveraging a complex architectural environment with shifting walls and floors, and stunning, varied locations, this game might be a good choice for leveraging the latest real-time raytraced graphics technology. Indeed, last year Nvidia crowed about Control using "glossy Ray Traced Reflections, Ray Traced Diffuse Global Illumination and Contact Shadows for most influential light sources". This graphics tech is PC-exclusive.
It isn't therefore a great surprise to see that Control comes with quite high minimum and recommended specs for PC gamers. The minimum processor spec isn't that strenuous at an Intel Core i5-7500 or AMD Ryzen 3 1300X or better - those are both modern-ish 4C/4T processors. However, the GPU requirements for the minimum recommended settings (GTX 1060 / RX 580) are going to disappoint a few PC gamers, especially those using older gaming laptops.
Remedy suggests an Nvidia GeForce GTX 1080 Ti / AMD Radeon VII (or better) for playing Control at recommended settings. A separate entry in the minimum and recommended specs for playing Control with raytraced graphics points to using a GeForce RTX 2060 or a GeForce RTX 2080, respectively.
Control is a timed exclusive for the Epic Games Store, starting from 27th August. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://www.ksro.com/2019/07/17/jessica-mcdonald-only-mom-on-us-soccer-team-hopes-her-son-remembers-this/ | Jessica McDonald, only mom on US soccer team, hopes her son remembers this | This profile adjusts the website to be compatible with screen-readers such
as JAWS, NVDA, VoiceOver, and TalkBack. A screen-reader is software that
is... | Jul 17, 2019 | KSRO | Maja Hitij/Getty Images
(NEW YORK) — Amid the rowdy celebrations on the pitch in France after the U.S. won the World Cup, a player kneeled so her young son could sprinkle a handful of confetti over her head.
As the confetti swirled around her, Jessica McDonald closed her eyes and smiled.
“I know all the girls, we all have something to play for, we all have this goal and we’re all on the same page as to what we want at the end of the day,” McDonald told ABC News. “But as for me, I have something a little bit more to play for, and that’s my kid.”
McDonald is the only mother on the cup-winning U.S. women’s national team, and one of seven mothers in the National Women’s Soccer League, where she plays for the North Carolina Courage.
Celebrating the World Cup win with her son Jeremiah, 7, almost didn’t happen.
“About four or five years ago, I thought about retirement, because getting paid on the salary from the NWSL and being a parent is probably — no, I shouldn’t say ‘probably’ — is one of the most difficult things to do,” she told ABC News.
During the offseason, McDonald worked 9-to-5 jobs, coached and ran camps, and sometimes packed boxes at Amazon 11 hours a day “just to make ends meet.”
“Situations like that can be very draining, especially when I can barely even afford child care,” she said.
McDonald sat down with an uncle, who told her, “You have this purpose that God has given you, and your purpose right now is soccer. If you can physically, and you’re still able to go and play, you need to do that. Don’t just give up just because it’s hard financially. You’re gonna be fine. You know that.”
Now a World Cup winner, McDonald seems more than fine, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t room for improvement. While she was not part of the 2015 World Cup team, which filed a gender discrimination suit against U.S. Soccer, she and other moms in the NWSL are “trying to get together to see the changes that we can help make for the future of moms in this league, because it’s a very, very difficult road.”
The NWSL did not respond to ABC News’ request for comment.
As a mother and professional athlete, McDonald has set up a system for her family: “Drop him off at school, I go to training, go on about my day, he’s got his after-school program, then I go to pick him up, we do dinner, story time, sleep.”
But it’s on days when the system gets disrupted — if, say, practice gets moved because of weather — that it gets “tough,” especially without child care support.
The World Cup started while Jeremiah was finishing up first grade. McDonald’s “North Carolina family,” whom she met and got close to after coaching their daughter, took care of her son back home. They then took Jeremiah to France for the end of the tournament.
“To be honest, if I didn’t have them in my life, I have no idea what I would have done,” she said.
Jeremiah joined her on the field after the win, at the ticker tape parade for the team in New York City and at the ESPY Awards, where the women won the award for Best Team.
“I hope that he remembers at least just holding that trophy, watching that game, and meeting this incredible group of women, because we’re in the middle of something powerful right now and something historical as well,” McDonald said. “I just want that to inspire him to want to be great at whatever it is he’s going to do in the future and just kind of stay in a positive mindset as well, because it’s a very difficult thing to do.”
Being around this group of women — and hearing Megan Rapinoe’s speech at the ticker tape parade — will impact him, she said. Witnessing it at a pivotal age means “it will hit him one day. Because he doesn’t understand right now. But one day, he will.”
In her ticker tape parade speech, Rapinoe said, “We have pink hair and purple hair. We have tattoos and dreadlocks. We got white girls and black girls and everything in between, straight girls and gay girls.”
An African American woman with dreadlocks (which she wears, she told Into The Gloss, because of their ease of care as a mom and pro athlete), McDonald’s image has inspired more children than just her son.
“We want kids who look like us to be inspired,” she told ABC News. “I’ve had so many parents DM me on social media thanking me because I simply have dreadlocks, because their daughters wear dreadlocks and play with dreadlocks, and I’m like, ‘Well why not? Let’s do it.’ It’s really cool to be able to inspire the younger generation of kids of color that look like us.”
Now back home in North Carolina, the McDonalds are settling back into their routine, as Jeremiah enjoys a summer program run by his regular after-school program on a farm. But his remarkable summer break may have an unplanned ending, thanks to shaking Dwyane Wade’s hand at the ESPYs.
“I think he was kind of inspired by sports this summer,” McDonald said. “So I think I’ll be putting him in summer basketball pretty soon.”
And maybe 15 years from now, Jeremiah will get to take McDonald as his date to collect his own ESPY Award. McDonald, of course, would be overjoyed.
Copyright © 2019, ABC Radio. All rights reserved. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://hexus.net/tech/news/graphics/133430-tobii-spotlight-tech-uses-eye-tracking-reduce-gpu-stress/ | Tobii Spotlight tech uses eye tracking to reduce GPU stress ... | Tags: NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), HTC (TPE:2498), Epic Games. Quick Link:
HEXUS.net/qaecjw. Add to My Vault: x. Tobii, best known for its eye
tracking... | Aug 6, 2019 | HEXUS.net | Tobii, best known for its eye tracking technologies and devices used for enhanced Windows gaming, has launched Tobii Spotlight Technology. The firm took the wraps off the technology at SIGGRAPH last week. In brief, Tobii is leveraging its eye tracking tech to make foveated rendering techniques, such as VRS, smarter and more efficient.
HEXUS regulars will be aware that Nvidia introduced VRS (Variable-Rate Shading) with the launch of the Turing architecture in September last year. At the time the HEXUS editor thought it would be a highly suitable technique for VR rendering as it can provide high res imagery where needed, and lower res imagery at the periphery of scenes. Thus it can help deliver better visuals, and faster frame rates, with less stress on the GPU. AMD GPUs don't yet support VRS but support is thought to be in the pipeline.
Reading through the above paragraph, you will see a case for using VRS for rendering to VR headsets but it suffers from a startling lack of refinement - as it isn't just a user's head that moves in VR, our eyes move around too. This is where Tobii Spotlight Technology will make a difference. "Tobii Spotlight Technology is advanced eye tracking specialised for foveation," said Henrik Eskilsson, CEO of Tobii. In case you don't already know, the fovea is a small central portion of your retina, which sees in high resolution, while your peripheral vision is effectively a blur. Tobii has published a dedicated foveation technology page to explain why dynamic foveated rendering (DFR) is an important advance on VRS.
At SIGGRAPH Tobii showed off a PC system using its Spotlight technology as well as an Nvidia RTX 2070 graphics card (with DFR enabled via Nvidia VRS), an HTC Vive Pro Eye headset, playing the game ShowdownVR from Epic Games. Benchmarks using this setup delivered GPU rendering load reductions of 57 per cent, bringing the average shading rate using dynamic foveated rendering down to 16 per cent from around 24 per cent. Thus the GPU can work on other aspects of the game, and/or boost frame rates, or save power.
Tobii worked closely with Nvidia to implement its DFR system and sees it in the future being used to custom transfer and stream data optimised for user focus over 5G networks. The firm even expects its Spotlight technology to be able to keep shading tasks manageable in VR headsets with resolutions exceeding 15K. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://m.hexus.net/tech/reviews/graphics/133040-evga-geforce-rtx-2070-super-xc-gaming/ | Review: EVGA GeForce RTX 2070 Super XC Gaming - Graphics | by Tarinder Sandhu on 6 August 2019, 14:01. Tags: EVGA, NVIDIA
(NASDAQ:NVDA). Quick Link: HEXUS.net/qaeb5q. Add to My Vault: x... | Aug 6, 2019 | HEXUS.net | Introduction
Nvidia hopes the release of improved 'Super' GeForce RTX graphics cards will invigorate the premium end of the market. The RTX 2060, RTX 2070 and RTX 2080 all have had the Super treatment through a combination of more cores, higher frequencies and, for the RTX 2060, more memory.
The biggest jump in performance from last year's regular cards is available on the RTX 2070 Super. Comparing Founders Edition cards shows the new Super enjoys a 21 per cent bump in core power, more RT and Tensor cores, and still-decent bandwidth. The upshot is in-game performance that's 10-20 per cent better... all for the same money.
It's Nvidia's very own Founders Edition card - clocked in at solid frequencies and costing £475 - that is making life hard for partner models that use custom coolers. Of course, that isn't stopping the likes of EVGA from having a go, and it has six distinct models.
Sitting in the middle of the stack is the RTX 2070 Super XC
Gaming - known by the model number 08G-P4-3172-KR - so let's get
to it.
Though it measures the same 269.83mm (l) x 111.15mm (h) and occupies a strict dual-slot form factor as the cheapest EVGA card from this range, the Super XC Gaming improves upon it in a number of ways. The dual fans get the hydro-dynamic-bearing treatment, there's limited RGB support, a metal backplate is included, and core frequency is a bit higher. Not bad for an extra $20. Paying an extra $10 brings the XC Ultra Gaming into play, which is identical apart from the use of a thicker heatsink that takes form factor out to 2.75 slots.
We continue to like EVGA's cooler design, which marries distinctive looks and solid build quality. Both fans switch off at loads below 55°C, and then ramp up predictably past that point.
The metal backplate is a nice aesthetic touch, though there isn't a whole heap of components to cool on the back. Consequently, it doesn't get that warm, unlike the competition, and we registered a maximum 61°C temperature after 15 minutes of full load, suggesting that it's more decorative than absolutely necessary.
You'd think adding this plate and having a custom heatsink would push total board weight up a fair bit. That's not the case, as the the card tips the scales at 1,061g, or 215g lighter than the Founders Edition, whose build quality feels a notch or two above EVGA's.
As an aside, the switch between regular RTX 2070 and the improved Super version has been easy for the likes of EVGA. So much so, that part of the Super branding is merely a sticker on top of the existing RTX 2070 card.
LED lighting is subtle and focussed on the side of the card. The XC Gaming may look a bit odd if positioned in a chassis that has vertical mounting because only the upper section of the card is lit. One can choose between the full range of RGB colours and one of five effects and varying levels of brightness via EVGA's Precision X1 utility. This is one feature the FE card does not have.
Nvidia's reference spec calls for a boost clock of 1,770MHz. The XC Gaming ups that to 1,800MHz but keeps memory at the standard 14Gbps, enabling the card to keep to a 215W TDP. One can therefore assume that it will benchmark very close to the FE model.
EVGA uses a familiar pattern of cooling an RTX-level card. The twin-fan heatsink makes contact with the core via a solid block and then six flattened heatpipes snake away through the aluminium fins. Both fans are connected as one to the PCB, but they can be set to completely different speeds. It's worth knowing that hot air is mostly ejected out of the side of the card, meaning it is largely recirculated in the chassis. Handy for ancillary M.2 cooling, though not great for in-chassis thermals.
The reason there's no overt heatsink cooling of the VRMs and memory is down to EVGA using a metal frame heatsink in between the cooler and PCB. Let's take a peek.
Heatsink coverage is robust, as it envelops the 8GB of GDDR6 memory, VRMs, and has a thermal pad that makes direct contact with a bunch of fins. There's actually not too much more EVGA can do whilst retaining a dual-slot form factor.
Power is sourced via the usual combination of 8+6-pin connectors on the far side. This model is bereft of advanced features such as dual BIOSes, full iCX2 technology, and a larger PCB enabling three fans: those belong to the higher-spec Super FTW3 Ultra Gaming.
It's good to see that EVGA retains the default display configuration put forward by Nvidia, including USB Type-C. On top of the green team's own software promotion of Wolfenstein: Young Blood and Control, EVGA continues to bundle in Grip: Combat Racing, adding that bit of extra value.
Remember how we said that Nvidia's AIBs will feel the pinch when it comes to pricing? Knowing the reference Founders Edition is £475, EVGA is charging £530 for this model, consistent with a mid-pack card from a partner. Whether that £55 surcharge is worth it depends upon how much value you ascribe to the XC Gaming's features.
It's worth noting that, at the time of writing, neither the Founders Edition nor this EVGA card were in stock. We're informed that this model is due next week. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://northforker.com/2019/08/celebrity-chef-franklin-becker-named-culinary-director-claudios/ | Celebrity chef Franklin Becker named culinary director at ... | This profile adjusts the website to be compatible with screen-readers such
as JAWS, NVDA, VoiceOver, and TalkBack. A screen-reader is software that
is... | Aug 7, 2019 | Northforker | The new management team at Claudio’s is making good on its promise to elevate the menu offerings at the iconic waterfront restaurant complex through incorporating more refined, locally sourced dishes under the guidance of newly hired culinary director, celebrity chef Franklin Becker.
Becker, owner of FB Hospitality, might be familiar for his appearances on Bravo’s Top Chef Masters and for his three cookbooks on preparing healthy cuisine. Well regarded for his plant-inspired and veggie-forward dishes at his restaurants The Little Beet and Hungryroot, Becker said North Fork produce will dictate the seasonal menus at Claudio’s.
“Our vision is to pay respect and homage to the past while bringing it into the future,” Becker said. “The future lies in the season and what’s being grown locally and making sure those ingredients shine.”
After visiting area farms and meeting with local baymen, the revised modern American menu includes burrata with local peaches and grilled beets, heirloom tomato melon salad with gazpacho flavors and local fluke with spicy greens from KK’s The Farm in Southold.
The Seasoned Hospitality management team of Stephen Loffredo and Tora Matsuoka, who have overseen operations at Claudio’s since it was purchased by the new ownership group, appointed Becker to the position Aug. 1 after he spent the summer consulting on menu changes.
Becker will be overseeing all kitchen operations with FB Hospitality partner Kevin Garcia serving as executive chef. Working together, the two co-chefs will direct the property’s three kitchens — Claudio’s main restaurant, Claudio’s Waterfront and Crabby Jerry’s — though the majority of the menu changes will be reflected at the main restaurant, Becker noted.
Garcia, whose background is in fine-dining, including working along side James Beard award-winning chef Jean-Georges Vongerichten at Prime in Las Vegas, said guests can expect new takes on old favorites, such as the restaurant’s stuffed clams. The staple will soon get a twist that incorporates Portuguese flavors, an ode to founder Manuel Claudio, who arrived in Greenport aboard the Portuguese whaler “Neva” in the mid-1800s.
“We are trying to keep the tradition in local, fresh foods,” Garcia said. “We are spending time on extra details of plating and presentation, so it may look a little more elevated but it will still have a familiar taste. We want the shaping of the menu to be an inclusive process, so we’ll run specials and see if customers like it before we put it on the menu.”
Seafood will continue to be a mainstay. Seared tile fish with Tokyo scallions, sweet corn and heirloom tomatoes and local squash is currently on the menu along with fish and chips made with Greenport Harbor Brewing Co. porter. The raw bar features clams, shrimp, crab, lobster and locally sourced oysters.
Claudio’s is gearing up for an extended season, staying open through the holidays. Expect the fall menu to incorporate more root vegetables, game meats and duck. There will also be special Thanksgiving and Christmas menus.
“The fall bounty is as marvelous as the summer,” Garcia said. “It brings incredible produce and meats that inspired us to extend the season.”
Claudio’s is located at 111 Main Street, Greenport | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://shelterislandreporter.timesreview.com/2019/08/06/island-volleyball-team-wins-prestigious-state-honor/ | Island volleyball team wins prestigious state honor - Shelter ... | This profile adjusts the website to be compatible with screen-readers such
as JAWS, NVDA, VoiceOver, and TalkBack. A screen-reader is software that
is... | Aug 6, 2019 | Shelter Island Reporter | Island volleyball team wins prestigious state honor
Shelter Island School has an outstanding record of producing students who excel both on the court and in the classroom.
This spring the New York State Public High School Athletic Association announced that Shelter Island had won its fourth consecutive School of Distinction award.
A School of Distinction is one in which 100% of its varsity teams qualify for and receive the Scholar-Athlete team award during their respective sports seasons. Shelter Island is one of only eight Section XI schools in Suffolk County and 35 schools statewide to achieve the honor.
In addition to the shared county and state recognition, the girls’ 2018-2019 varsity volleyball team also received national accolades. The American Volleyball Coaches Association (AVCA) announced Shelter Island also earned the AVCA Team Academic Award. In order to win the award, the team’s cumulative grade point average must be 90 or above for the entire school year.
The team was nominated by Coach Cindy Belt and Guidance Counselor Martha Tuthill.
The 12 varsity athletes contributing to the team’s success both in the classroom and on the court were Maria Carbajal, Amelia Clark, Lyng Coyne, Lauren Gurney, Nichole Hand, Abby Kotula, Jennifer Lupo, Ella Mysliborski, Amelia Reiter, Jane Richards, Isabel Topliff and Audrey Wood.
This year’s volleyballers hit the court on Monday, Aug, 26 to start their 2019-2010 campaign. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://hexus.net/gaming/news/industry/139730-activision-blizzard-removes-games-nvidia-geforce-now/ | Activision Blizzard removes its games from Nvidia GeForce Now | Tags: NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI). Quick Link:
HEXUS.net/qaeios. Add to My Vault: x. Nvidia's GeForce Now streaming
service existed a... | Feb 12, 2020 | HEXUS.net | Nvidia's GeForce Now streaming service existed a lengthy beta test period to become a free/subscription service last week. As it went prime time it was broadly welcomed as delivering particular value to PC gamers, who already have a goodly selection of games which were sync-able with the service (via Steam, Epic GS, Battle.net and Uplay etc). However several big names game publishers have pulled out from supporting the platform since it was launched for the masses.
On launch date several published who once supported GeForce Now (and previously Nvidia Grid) decided not to give permission for their games to be streamed via the out-of-beta service. Capcom, EA, Konami, Remedy, Rockstar, and Square Enix games were all absent from the available streaming list last week - even though the gaming individual might own these games. This wasn't a blip in service implementation but a business decision by the publishers mentioned.
An Nvidia representative, active on the official GeForce Forums, has responded to the action of Activision Blizzard in removing its titles from the playable streaming games. You can see the long list of removed titles in the screenshot above. Cory@Nvidia stated that GeForce Now will continually add and remove games, just like many other digital service providers. He noted it was unfortunate that all Activision Blizzard games will be removed from the service, however Cory added that "we hope to work together with Activision Blizzard to reenable these games and more in the future". On a more positive note Cory said that "In addition to the hundreds of games currently supported, we have over 1,500 games that developers have asked to be on-boarded to the service." We are told to watch out for games availability update in the forums.
Posters, like this one on the official Blizzard forum, are currently pleading, reasoning and compelling the publisher to reverse its decision to make its games unavailable via GeForce Now. However, as mentioned above, Activision Blizzard is far from alone in this move away from the Nvidia GeForce Now platform.
Nvidia has been in touch with The Verge since Activision Blizzard's move, and the impression is that "you shouldn't expect [Activision Blizzard games] to magically reappear after a few days (or even a few weeks)". Nvidia didn't want to discuss revenue sharing deals it may or may not have with publishers but of course these decisions will have been made by publishers with an eye on £$s. It is expected that the streaming gaming industry landscape may drift towards the proliferation of offerings we have seen trend in the streaming TV/movies market. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-fund-top-picks-crushed-221246078.html | This Hedge Fund’s Top Picks Crushed The Index Funds | The third most valuable position in AlphaOne Capital Partners' portfolio
for Q3 was NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), a new addition from Q2. | Feb 11, 2020 | Yahoo Finance | This Hedge Fund’s Top Picks Crushed The Index Funds
AlphaOne Capital Partners was launched in 2009 by Paul Hondros and Daniel Niles. Mr Hondros is the fund’s President and CEO, while Mr Niles holds the position of the fund’s senior portfolio manager. Paul Hondros has a decade-long career focused on investment industry. He holds a BA in History from St. Joseph’s University. Since 1975 he worked at various positions in companies and funds such as Fidelity Investments, Liberty Ridge Capital Pilgrim Baxter & Associates, and so on. Currently, Paul Hondros is also CEO at Nationwide Funds, and a member and a trustee in funds such as Dreyfus Gvt International Value Fund and Aberdeen Funds. Mr. Niles holds a MS in Electrical Engineering from Stanford University, and his first job was at Digital Equipment Corporation where he worked as an Engineer. Later on he worked at various positions at Lehman Brothers, Neuberger Berman Inc. AlphaOne Capital Partners combines equity long-short strategies and long-only small/micro-cap strategies through hedge funds, institutional separate accounts, and registered mutual funds.
As for the fund’s performance, during the last several years it has gone through some ups and downs. In 2014, it delivered 2.46% followed by 12.61% in 2015. In 2016 the return was 0.67%, while in 2017 and 2018 it dropped to -3.83% and -1.87% respectively. However, 2019 showed that the fund got back on the track, delivering 5.62% through June. An annualized return of 7.31% reflects these fluctuations nicely, but is also a reminder to the fund’s managers about rethinking the strategies the fund employs.
Insider Monkey’s mission is to identify promising (and also terrible) hedge fund stock pitches and share them with our subscribers. We leave no stone unturned when looking for the next great investment idea. We read hedge fund investor letters, listen to stock pitches at hedge fund conferences, and go through short-term trade recommendations like this one. We even check out recommendations of services with hard to believe track records. Last month, we recommended a long position in one of the most shorted stocks in the market. No, our recommendation wasn't Tesla (TSLA). It was a better pick than Tesla as this stock gained nearly 50% in 3 weeks. Sometimes, though not this time, we share the names of these stocks free of charge in our free e-newsletter. You can subscribe to our e-newsletters below to get these emails before the rest of the market.
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Let’s now see AlphaOne Capital Partners’ top stock picks for Q3 2019. These stocks returned an average of 31.3% since the end of September, vs. 13.5% gain for the S&P 500 ETFs. AlphaOne will probably disclose its Q4 holdings in a day or two.
The fund’s fifth top stock pick was a new addition, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). The company was ranked #9 among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds for the third quarter of 2019. There were 111 hedge funds bullish on the stock during this period, a positive change of 17% compared to Q2. Berkshire Hathaway held the largest stake in the company at the end of Q3, which reported holding $55.73 billion worth of stock. Right behind it, allocating large portions of their portfolios to Apple Inc. were Fisher Asset Management, AQR Capital Management and Adage Capital Management (see more details about this here). Apple shares gained 43.5% since the end of September.
Another new addition, Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (NYSE:TSM) took the fourth place in AlphaOne Capital Partners’ portfolio. Hedge funds seem to be more and more interested in the company lately as you can read in more detail here. There were a total of 52 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey bullish on the stock, which is a change of 24% compared to Q2. Among them, Fisher Asset Management held the largest stake in the company, worth $1576.8 million. Among the company’s other top shareholders were Renaissance Technologies, AQR Capital Management and Arrowstreet Capital. TSM shares gained more than 27% since the end of September.
The third most valuable position in AlphaOne Capital Partners’ portfolio for Q3 was NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), a new addition from Q2. The fund decided to cut the position by 23% during the quarter. Heading into Q4, there were 48 hedge funds investing in NVIDIA Corporation, which is 7% higher compared to Q2. D E Shaw was the company’s top shareholder, which reported holding $469.5 million. Among other top hedge funds bullish on the stock were Fisher Asset Management, Renaissance Technologies and Adage Capital Management (see the details here). NVDA shares returned a mind blowing 54% since September.
The fund’s second top stock pick for Q3 2019 was Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATVI), a new addition. This company is becoming popular among shareholders, since there were 70 hedge funds bullish on it at the end of Q3, a change of 53% compared to the previous quarter. The most valuable stake in the company was held by Lone Pine Capital, worth $595.1 million. The other hedge funds interested in the company included Alyeska Investment Group, Citadel Investment Group, and Suvretta Capital Management, as you can read in more detail here. ATVI shares returned 15.6% since the end of September.
Finally, the most valuable position in AlphaOne Capital Partners’ latest 13F fillings was Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB). Even though it was cut by 5% during the quarter, it remained at the first place, comprising 12.98% of the fund’s portfolio. Facebook Inc is among the most popular hedge funds, it was once again #1 among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds. As for Q3, there were 179 hedge funds bullish on the stock. Facebook shares also outperformed the market since the end of Q3, delivering a return of more than 16%.
Disclosure: None. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/investing/what-to-invest-in-hobbies-passion-stocks-17938 | Wondering What to Invest in? Start with What You Love | Gamers want the best video cards, and Nvidia (NVDA) is popular with this
set. It's been on a stunning run since the December 2018 break, when it
fell to... | Feb 12, 2020 | Ticker Tape | Love your hobbies? There’s probably a stock for that. Here are a few tips for investing in your passions.
Last year saw a number of lifestyle initial public offerings (IPOs)
High-profile IPOs include indoor cycler Peloton and foodie-favorite Beyond Meat
Many stocks gained big in last year’s runup,
but a few lagged
There’s an old trading adage popularized by billionaire investor Warren Buffett: Invest in what you know.
That’s usually said to discourage people from diving into unfamiliar sectors or investment vehicle types. But there’s another way to invest in what you know, and that’s by investing in the companies that make the products and services you like.
People who have passions or hobbies often know a great deal about the products and services they use, and they may follow the wider industry too. Of course, you still need to do your due diligence when it comes to reading up on a company’s financials and other necessary research.
Whether it’s an aging population looking to stay in shape or a younger generation wanting to get healthy, fitness is big business. You could whip your portfolio into shape with fitness stocks.
Peloton Interactive (PTON), an indoor cycling startup, had its initial public offering in September 2019. A significant portion of its lofty valuation of about $8 billion comes from its subscription business for individual and home users. In the first few months of trading, PTON rose to around $37—about $10 above its first-day price—but has since peeled off those higher levels.
Did you miss out on PTON’s IPO? Another fitness startup is reportedly getting ready to launch. ClassPass, which is already valued at $1 billion, is another subscription-based company that offers boutique studio fitness classes.
Interested more in companies with a track record?
Gym chain Planet Fitness (PLNT) may be reaping the benefit of fitness New Year’s resolutions, but the stock has been in a pretty solid uptrend for the past few years.
As part of its rebranding to position itself for a younger audience looking to lose weight or eat healthier, Weight Watchers is now known as WW International (WW). Backed by pop culture icon Oprah Winfrey, share prices are in the middle of their 52-week range.
What’s fitness without the gear? Lululemon Athletica (LULU), one of the leaders of the athleisure clothing trend, has been on an uptrend itself for the past few years, holding near its 52-week high. It’s also outperformed the consumer discretionary category.
As one of the original activewear companies, Nike (NKE) remains at the forefront of fitness with its shoe and clothing goods, fulfilling the needs of both the weekend warrior and the serious athlete.
Nike’s fierce competitor Under Armour (UA) has seen its stock struggle in the past few years with slumping sales, as share prices show. It gapped lower on technical charts in July 2019 and still hasn’t recovered. However, it received good publicity when it was tapped to design spacewear for Virgin Galactic (SPCE).
Find your best fit.
Food stocks are often considered defensive plays because everyone eats, even in a recession. But the hottest name in food stocks certainly hasn’t acted that way since its IPO last summer. Beyond Meat (BYND) is a plant-based food maker whose valuations saw a meteoric rise to about $235 from its IPO level of $45. It’s trading around $120 now.
McCormick & Company (MKC), best known for making spices, has been on a solid run, making a new 52-week high in January 2020. It’s staying at the forefront of consumer tastes, having recently bought popular hot-sauce condiment company Frank’s RedHot.
Plenty of folks are into healthy or natural foods. Two potential stocks to research are Natural Alternatives International (NAII), which makes nutritional supplements and is trading close to its 52-week low, and Hain Celestial Group (HAIN), best known as the maker of Celestial Seasonings tea, which on a multi-year chart is trading near its post-IPO midrange, but just blasted to 52-week highs.
There are several well-known companies in this space. Gaming could change significantly if 5G does as well as the hype predicts. And gaming isn’t just for kids; an AARP survey from December 2019 showed that in the last three years, more adults age 50 and up are playing, at 44% versus 38% in 2016.
Electronic Arts (EA) is home to long-time gamer favorites The Sims and Apex Legends, and the company had a successful rollout of soccer game EA Sports FIFA 20. The game maker just reported third-quarter earnings in January and showed better-than-expected net bookings.
Game publisher Activision Blizzard (ATVI), best known for Candy Crush and Call of Duty, has an eye on technology advances. It just tapped Alphabet (GOOG) for its game-hosting infrastructure, replacing Amazon (AMZN) to become a marquee customer of Google Cloud so it can stream on YouTube.
Gamers want the best video cards, and Nvidia (NVDA) is popular with this set. It’s been on a stunning run since the December 2018 break, when it fell to around $127, and now trades nearly double that price.
The money we spend on Fido and Fifi proves our pets are our passion. According to the American Pet Products Association, we spend $72 billion on our fur babies. Millennials are the largest segment of pet owners, and they’re willing to pay up.
That could help a company like Freshpet (FRPT), which makes fresh, refrigerated pet food and treats found in grocers. Millennials’ interest in higher-end pet food may explain why General Mills (GIS) bought natural pet food maker Blue Buffalo last year.
Online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) had an IPO last summer and shot up to nearly double its initial price of $22. Since then, prices tumbled. Although it remains above its IPO price, only time will tell if CHWY is a dog.
As we care more for our pets, we’re willing to spend more on their health, including veterinarian services. IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) makes products for companion-animal vets but also for livestock and poultry markets. The company also produces in-clinic lab analyzers to monitor health conditions.
Whether your passion is fitness, food, games, or fur babies, there are plenty of ways to incorporate the things you love into your portfolio.
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https://suffolktimes.timesreview.com/2020/02/terence-terry-john-fleming/ | Terence (Terry) John Fleming - The Suffolk Times | This profile adjusts the website to be compatible with screen-readers such
as JAWS, NVDA, VoiceOver, and TalkBack. A screen-reader is software that
is... | Feb 11, 2020 | The Suffolk Times | Terence (Terry) John Fleming
Terence (Terry) John Fleming of Greenport, N.Y., passed away peacefully at home Feb. 8, 2020, after a strong and courageous battle with cancer. He leaves behind his wife, Heidi (née Bodemann) of 23 years and son, Eric.
Terry was born Oct. 10, 1943. He spent his younger years in Lynbrook, N.Y., until his family moved to Pittsburgh, Pa. Every summer was spent in Laurel, N.Y., with his family.
Terry attended South Hills Catholic in Pittsburgh and went on to Penn State University, where he graduated in 1966 with a degree in history. He was a member of Phi Kappa Theta fraternity.
After college, he was drafted for the Vietnam War and spent three years serving in the U.S. Army. Upon discharge, he started working in sales for Pro-Bush Corp. He continued in sales throughout his career. His final job was with Quality Oils where he sold Chevron products for the oil and lubricant division.
Terry moved to Louisville, Ky., in 1974 and lived there until 2016. He considered Louisville as home and was very involved with men’s softball. He played on teams for several years and he eventually became the coach of one team. He also started the Penn State University Alumni Club of Louisville while he was there. Terry loved all sports and was an avid fan of both the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Pittsburgh Steelers, Penguins and Pirates.
Besides his wife, Heidi, and son, Eric, Terry leaves behind three wonderful brothers, David (Elizabeth), Peter (Molly) and Daniel; along with his uncle, Thomas J. Fleming (Jack Hagstrom, recently deceased); and many beloved nieces, nephews and cousins. He was predeceased in life by his parents, Marie (Heim) Fleming and John Fleming; his sister, Ginger (William Marlow); and stepfather, Leo Russell.
All services for Terry will be held in Louisville, Ky.
Horton-Mathie Funeral Home in Greenport assisted the family.
This is a paid notice. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://investorplace.com/2020/03/big-new-threats-nvda-stock-worry-investors/ | Two Big, New Threats to NVDA Stock That Should Worry ... | Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is facing important threats on two fronts. As a result
of these issues, I've become cautious about NVDA stock at this point. | Mar 12, 2020 | InvestorPlace | Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is facing important threats on two fronts. As a result of these issues, I’ve become cautious about NVDA stock at this point.
In a previous column, I wrote that artificial intelligence (AI) was the key to the huge jump of the company’s data center revenue in the fourth quarter of last year, and the strong growth of its data center revenue, in turn, was a key reason that its results came in ahead of analysts’ average outlook. Revenue from data centers accounts for about one-third of Nvidia’s overall sales and is important to its strategy and to NVDA stock going forward.
But a recent innovation by Rice University, achieved in collaboration with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), looks poised to threaten Nvidia’s competitive advantage when it comes to AI. Specifically, the researchers reportedly have been able to radically increase the speed of Intel’s Xeon chips which are used for AI training. As a result, Xeon is now “3.5 times faster than Nvidia’s Tesla (chips) in AI deep learning,” according to wccftech.
Further, the Mar. 2 press release announcing the news points out that the researchers were able to achieve the speed increase on computer processing units made by Intel, instead of the much more expensive graphics processing units in which Nvidia specializes.
According to Anshumali Shrivastava, the assistant professor in Rice’s Brown School of Engineering who led the team which invented the new technique, “a top-of-the-line GPU platform like the ones Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Google and others offer for cloud-based deep learning services has eight Tesla V100s and costs about $100,000.”
Although I could not find the price of the 44-core Intel chip which the Rice/Intel team used, other types of Xeon chips can be obtained for only a few hundred dollars each.
It will likely take time for all the kinks of the new technique to be worked out and to convince data centers to try it. But Nvidia’s sales could start to be meaningfully negatively impacted by the discovery six months to a year from now.
According to Jon Peddie Research, AMD’s shipments of GPUs jumped 22.6% in Q4 versus Q3, while Nvidia’s fell 1.9% quarter-over-quarter. Nvidia’s shipments fell in Q4 even though it’s usually a stronger period for GPUs than Q3. AMD’s share of the GPU market increased by 3% in Q4 versus Q3, while Nvidia’s share fell by almost 1%.
NVDA Stock Still Has Strong, Positive Catalysts
Barron’s reported that ” ADAS (advance driver-assistance systems) is coming on strong,” while Nvidia ” launched a new ADAS offering in January 2019, and NVDA is already partnering with 370 companies in the auto sector.”
I also predicted that “by the end of this year, many companies — including multiple Nvidia partners — will be offering services with truly autonomous vehicles.” But in 2019, the company’s auto business accounted for less than 10% of its total sales.
Meanwhile, Nvidia’s pending acquisition of Mellanox (NASDAQ:MLNX) could enable it to continue benefiting from the explosive growth of AI, even if its GPUs lose market share to Intel’s CPUs. That’s because Mellanox’s technology allows servers to essentially use the memory of other servers without any of them utilizing their operating systems. That, in turn, helps enable the creation of huge “neural networks” which are used to facilitate AI.
Finally, as InvestorPlace contributor Louis Navellier pointed out recently, the company’s products are facilitating the deployment of 5G technology.
The Bottom Line on Nvidia Stock
Without a doubt, Nvidia still has impressive products and powerful, positive drivers. However, it’s also facing very important, strong threats from Intel and AMD. And, with a trailing price-earnings ratio of 56, NVDA stock is far from cheap. Given all of these points, along with the current weakness of the market, I’d avoid Nvidia at this point.
As of this writing, Larry Ramer did not own shares of any of the aforementioned companies. Larry Ramer has conducted research and written articles on U.S. stocks for 13 years. He has been employed by The Fly and Israel’s largest business newspaper, Globes. Larry began writing columns for InvestorPlace in 2015. Among his highly successful, contrarian picks have been GE, solar stocks, and Snap. You can reach him on StockTwits at @larryramer. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://www.thurrott.com/cloud/web-browsers/microsoft-edge/232270/microsoft-is-bringing-edge-dev-tools-accessibility-to-other-browsers | Microsoft is Bringing Edge Dev Tools Accessibility to Other ... | New accessibility features include navigation improvements for those using
a standard keyboard or screen readers like NVDA. “Accessibility
improvements... | Mar 12, 2020 | Paul Thurrott | Microsoft announced new accessibility features and improvements to the Microsoft Edge Developer Tools and said that they will come to other Chromium-based browsers as well.
“Developers are recognizing that the web must be accessible and inclusive in order to create great experiences for everyone,” Rachel Simone Weil writes in a new post to the Microsoft Edge blog. “Nearly half of computer users in the US also use some form of assistive technology (AT). Users of AT may have physical or cognitive disabilities, temporary injuries, hearing or vision loss, or other conditions that necessitate different experiences on the web. Other users may not have an impairment but benefit from the convenience of features such as keyboard navigation.”
To this end, the firm is bringing new accessibility features and improvements to the Microsoft Edge Developer Tools and making them available in the new Edge browser on Windows 7/8/8.1, Windows 10, and macOS. But they’re also coming to all Chromium-based browsers, including Google Chrome, Microsoft says.
“With the support of the Google Chrome team and the Chromium community, we’ve committed over 150 changes back into Chromium on DevTools accessibility features alone,” Weil writes. “We’re proud to share this accessibility work to help improve the experience for millions of developers on Microsoft Edge and other Chromium-based browsers.”
New accessibility features include navigation improvements for those using a standard keyboard or screen readers like NVDA. “Accessibility improvements … extend beyond essential tab and pane navigation,” Weil adds. “Complex features like breakpoints and performance details are now accessible, too. In some cases, tools were even reimagined or built from scratch. For example, the new Initiator tab makes stack traces accessible by moving them out of a hover element and into their own tab. The stack traces are now in a format that is more compatible with AT.”
In the future, Microsoft will be adding more accessibility features to the new Edge and other Chromium-based browsers, including supporting high-contrast mode in DevTools, tooling to simulate high-contrast on websites being debugged in DevTools, and making sure the DevTools meet the accessibility recommendations outlined in the new WCAG 2.1 standards. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://northforker.com/2020/03/two-shelter-island-mainstays-are-up-for-sale/ | Two Shelter Island mainstays are up for sale | This profile adjusts the website to be compatible with screen-readers such
as JAWS, NVDA, VoiceOver, and TalkBack. A screen-reader is software that
is... | Mar 12, 2020 | Northforker | Six years after David Bowd and Kevin O’Shea purchased, renovated and opened the Chequit, it is on the auction block.
It joins The Dory as one of two well known Shelter Island businesses that announced they’re for sale this week.
New York City-based Concierge Auctions is handling the auction of the property and said the owners are looking for a minimum of $3.5 million.
They had purchased the property for a reported $3.35 million and invested a substantial amount of money renovating the premises. If bids were to come in lower than $3.5 million, it would be up to a company called APT Development that is now the owner of record to accept a lower bid, seek to negotiate with bidders or reject all bids, according to Project Sales Manager Bob Buttaro of Concierge Auctions.
The property will be marketed globally, Mr. Buttaro said.
Those wishing to bid have to register with Concierge Auctions and provide a $100,000 deposit that would be refunded if they fail to win the bidding. The registration process also requires a bank for the potential buyer to certify that funds are sufficient to complete the purchase should that person or company win the bid.
Between March 27 and 31, those qualified will compete with their bids online. But if past experience is any indication, it will be on the last day that bidding picks up, Mr. Buttaro said.
The highest bidder will become the winner and sign a contract with an expected closing within 30 days.
The Chequit was built by the local Methodist church to function as a dining room for the community when it was completed in 1872, according to the Shelter Island Historical Society. Twenty-two years later, it was converted into an inn called Bay View House and Bay View Hotel. In 1909 that name was changed to Chequit, a local indigenous name for weakfish.
In its heyday in the 1960s, members of the Kennedy family and Marilyn Monroe were among celebrities who stayed there. In 1978, CBS used the Chequit as the primary site for its mini-series, “The Dain Curse,” starring James Coburn and Hector Elizondo.
Ram’s Head Inn owners James and Linda Eklund purchased the Chequit in 1994 and sold it 20 years later.
The Dory is for sale
An Island institution is on the market for $3 million.
Dory owner Jack Kiffer said at 77 he’s ready to retire.
“I’ve been working since I was 11 years old,” Mr. Kiffer said. “I want to relax.”
Mr. Kiffer, who took over the Bridge Street watering hole in 2004, is the fifth owner of the place, which was built in 1925.
He’s had offers in the past to sell, he said, but was never serious about giving up the place where, when it’s open — which is pretty much all year-round — he’s in residence.
“Sometimes,” he said, “the Dory is the only game in town.”
If he doesn’t get a solid offer for the restaurant and bar, the place will stay open through the summer. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://aviationweek.com/shows-events/world-atm-congress/honeywell-upgrades-guidance-systems-incheon-airport | Honeywell Upgrades Guidance Systems At Incheon Airport | This profile adjusts the website to be compatible with screen-readers such
as JAWS, NVDA, VoiceOver, and TalkBack. A screen-reader is software that
is... | Mar 11, 2020 | Aviation Week | Honeywell Upgrades Guidance Systems At Incheon Airport
Honeywell is upgrading the airfield lighting and surface movement guidance systems at Incheon International Airport (RKSI) near Seoul, South Korea.
It is a flagship project for the U.S. manufacturer, which is installing its airfield ground lighting control and monitoring system (AGLCMS) and advanced surface movement guidance and control system (A-SMGCS) at RKSI, South Korea’s largest airport. Honeywell expects taxiway lighting improvements to be finished by April, with the remainder of the project completed by October 2022.
Recent construction of the airport’s fourth runway and expansion of its northern remote apron have increased flight capacity per hour from 90 flights to 107, Honeywell said. The opening of Terminal 2 at RKSI in January 2018 expanded its capacity to 18 million passengers and 50 million tons of cargo per year.
The AGLCMS helps improve pilots’ situational awareness and visibility during adverse weather conditions. Segments of taxiway lighting are activated as needed to direct flight crews, while other segments are switched off.
Honeywell’s A-SMGCS designates a route for each aircraft or vehicle within the airfield’s movement area based on information from other airport systems, including: data communications with aircraft; ground radar; ground sensors; and visual-range, infrared and distance-measuring cameras.
“With more than 380,000 flights managed yearly, Incheon International Airport is one of the highest-trafficked gateways to Southeast Asia,” RKSI’s director of the aeronautical ground light team Chang-Jun Lee said.
“Under high-traffic conditions, reliable guidance systems such as those installed by Honeywell are critical to the pilots maneuvering around our congested airfield and taxiways.”
Honeywell has designated RKSI as a flagship project of its “Iconic Buildings” campaign, highlighting the airport’s efforts to improve air safety and optimize operations. | NVDA | 424.64 |
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4237881-heads-tesla-wins | Heads, Tesla Wins (NASDAQ:TSLA) | German carmakers and the German government are concerned, as electric car
battery production shifts to Asia and/or Asian suppliers. | Feb 4, 2019 | Seeking Alpha | Heads, Tesla Wins
Summary
- German carmakers and the German government are concerned, as electric car battery production shifts to Asia and/or Asian suppliers.
- Home-grown battery cell development is underway in Germany.
- One prominent voice in the German auto industry is calling for companies to begin talks with Tesla about batteries.
- It is at best a coin toss whether Mercedes and BMW will embrace a Tesla battery solution. Heads and Tesla might sell a Gigafactory or two.
- And, if the coin comes up tails, Tesla's competitors might lose on batteries, again.
There is opportunity for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) that has seemed remote, but that may be getting a bit more likely as German carmakers continue scrambling for electric car battery supplies.
German carmakers, and even the German government, are coming to realize that as the industry transitions to electric cars, a large part of the vehicle value-add, and lots of industry manufacturing jobs, will move from ICE drivetrain manufacturing to battery making. Germany can't seem to make its own battery cells, and even Chancellor Angela Merkel is urging Germany's carmakers to work on the battery problem.
If Germany outsources battery cell manufacturing to Asia, industry profits and many industry jobs will be lost. The alternative of course is for German carmakers either individually or through a consortium to begin making their own battery cells. One way to do this would be to develop cell manufacturing technology in-house, from scratch.
BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) is working in this direction, and the company's battery development lab can be seen in the following video. It is worth watching to see how BMW engineers design and go about making a battery cell.
This BMW battery lab is clearly that - a lab project. It is a very long way from making battery cells at rates comparable to Tesla's Gigafactory. Even so, it is interesting to see what is going into BMW's prismatic battery cells. Cell technology and the processes and methods for cell making will underlie the success or failure of carmakers as they transition from ICE to electric vehicles. A German carmaker or the German car industry making their own cells in their own cell factories will only succeed if the cells they make are technically and economically competitive.
Round Pegs and Square Holes
Tesla is one carmaker that, with its partner Panasonic (OTCPK:PCRFF), makes its own battery cells in its own cell factory. Tesla and Panasonic have chosen to make cylindrical rather than prismatic battery cells. The difference in thinking between BMW (and many other carmakers) and Tesla as it relates to this cylindrical vs. prismatic form factor choice is interesting in the context of German carmakers' plans to take up cell manufacturing.
The argument for using prismatic form factor cells is that such cells can be packaged without wasted space between cells. This is something naturally attractive if one looks at the problem as a carmaker needing to put battery cells into a car design. Just buy the prismatic cells, they will fit better into the "battery box". But this isn't the whole story. The real packaging problem is to put the needed, very large area of very thin lithium battery electrodes into the car. How efficiently the electrodes fit into each cell is as important as how the cells fit into the battery.
This image (from the video above) shows how the wound-up electrodes ("jelly roll") of the BMW cell are "squished" to fit into the prismatic cell case. The wound-up electrode layers are inherently a round thing, and even when squished, there will be wasted volume when this is stuffed into a prismatic case.
Contrast BMW's cell with Tesla's 2170 cylindrical cell. The following image is from this video of a 2170 cell disassembly. In the Tesla cell, a cylindrical jelly roll of electrodes fits precisely into the cylindrical can with no wasted space. And, the extras steps BMW uses to flatten its jelly roll to make it fit a prismatic can are not required.
A lot of the volume the Tesla battery loses, because cylindrical cells don't pack tightly together, is offset because battery electrodes fit very efficiently into cylindrical cells.
The point I would make is that Tesla thinks about electric cars differently. Tesla's battery cells are different as we have just seen. So is the Tesla battery cooling scheme. So is Tesla's NCA battery chemistry that uses less cobalt than the NCM chemistry used by others. And so is Tesla's approach to building its SuperCharger road-trip charging infrastructure.
Tesla, Not Now, Not Ever, No Way!
All of the German carmakers, and indeed virtually all carmakers, have eschewed Tesla's approaches to electric car design, electric car batteries, and electric car recharging infrastructure. Both Daimler (DDAIF) and Toyota (TM) tried using Tesla batteries and Tesla electric drivetrains on some of their vehicles, and both left Tesla for other suppliers.
The notion of Tesla supplying components, doing joint development or selling battery Gigafactories to other carmakers has been an "In Your Dreams" thing for Tesla bulls ("In Your Worst Nightmares" thing for Tesla bears). So remote are the chances of Tesla selling Gigafactories to German carmakers that people suggesting that possibility have routinely been laughed at. I know.
And then, Maybe
As pointed out at the beginning of this piece, the German carmakers, spurred on by the German government, are looking in earnest at making electric car batteries in Germany. If the German carmakers are going to be successful making electric cars, they will need to learn to make the technologically and economically best battery cells. Perhaps the time is right for the Germans to take another look at Tesla, its technology and its batteries. Manfred Schoch, deputy chairman of the supervisory board at BMW, recently suggests that BMW board members should start talking with Elon Musk. But will they?
There is still a lot of disdain among carmakers for Tesla, the Silicon Valley upstart presuming to enter upon their turf. It is not a sure thing that board members from German carmakers will be talking with Elon Musk anytime soon. Whether Tesla might sell BMW or Daimler a Gigafactory in the end looks like a coin toss at best.
Of course, if the coin comes up heads and Tesla sells the Germans a Gigafactory, not only will I be vindicated in my earlier predictions, but also Tesla shareholders will have cause to celebrate.
If the coin comes up tails, Tesla will be stuck looking at just its own Gigafactories, making its (and Panasonic's) little cylindrical battery cells, and I will no doubt be laughed at. But that will also mean that Tesla's competitors will be stuck with second-rate batteries, losing out once again.
Disclaimer
These writings about the technical aspects of Tesla, electric cars, components, supply chain and the like are intended to stimulate awareness and discussion of these issues. Investors should view my work in this light and seek other competent technical advice on the subject issues before making investment decisions.
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (282)
They are 'battery' factories of course. Packing imported cells. The recently promoted use of "battery cells" confounds the difference, in a way 'electric vehicles' combines ICE (PHEV/HEV) and BEV.CATL in China will provide the cells. Similar to BMWs Samsung's cells produced in Taiwan. Seven years ago they made that clear, but the Tesla bandwagon dismissed all the 'incumbent' ICE 'fiefdom' said.The projected 14GWh/year includes assumed supply to other OEMs:“We want to supply all the OEMs (manufacturers) in Europe,” Chairman Robin Zeng said. “If the Thuringia project is successful then we can consider other locations.” "The CATL factory will create about 600 jobs and reach production of 14 gigawatt hours (GWh) by 2022. CATL reached shipments of 12 GWh in 2017"The increase of 2GWh over the 2017 isn't suggestive of a BEV revolution, but HEV/PHEVs.
have you seen latest drone flyover footage of Shanghai Tesla factory
www.youtube.com/...
I also concur with Randy Carlson assessment of the lack of infrastructure.
Thank you
I do hope you can provide updates as the months past@Ruffdog must be stunned by this video
looks like something is also up with NNOMF, finally
>BMW probably have its own reasons to develop prismatic cells. <
Yes, they do.The round/rectangular argument is raised above all others because it's an obvious physical difference that can't be denied. That same difference provides an 'obvious' means of suggesting technical advantage; enter the carnival barker salesman.
Simplified assumptions around cell volume and radiant surface area are just two of many considerations. I will leave that aside, but the hypothetical 'optimal' moves towards large cylinders, 40mm x 180mmTesla's pack is an arrangement (or matrix) of small cells, representing localised concentrations of energy and heat generation. The cooling hopes to create a more even distribution of the total heat to minimise the cell's core temperature - though the localised energy hot spots still remain.Direct heat transfer to the tube may be approximated from Newton's law of cooling. (Note that there is a time dependency, too)
en.wikipedia.org/...Heat transfer rate improves with larger contact area, and increasing
temperature difference of cell core and coolant. For the round cell cooling arrangement, the contact area (A) is small. For the same transferred heat, the temperature difference of cell core and tube will be higher. Unless coolant heat capacity is very large and closely thermally coupled, concentrated cell locations will remain above the pack's 'average' temperature and energy density. Both result in higher cell core temperature and increased fire risk.Closely packed pouch cell are closer to the evenly distributed 'isothermal' situation. The large surface area and compression of the pouches serves that end far better than the cylinder and cooling tube.Of course, total energy content of a module of pouch cells is large, but then, that's the point of using large capacity cells to improve energy density, while reducing cell count and interconnection costs.There are many other details, but complex to explain.
Generalising, only the use of energy dense NCA benefits the small cell approach, and not the cylinder itself. Fire risk is increased.
The cell was not chosen for the application, but the application wrapped around the available NCA cell.
By the way Schoch chairs the "works council" and therefore has a strong view on the implications of towards employment. He wants to build batteries in Europe instead of leaving the market to the big Asian players.
For the time beeing BMW will purchase batteries from CATL which builds a factory in Thuringa. Actually BMW was allowed to buy a stake in this company, recently.
The issue with cylindrical cells is that they are very complex to pack and wire - a lot, lot, more than prismatic. Tesla's real competitive advantage is their automated cell packing/wiring - the part they keep secret - the part they struggled with for so long. If the Germans are serious they will have to discover how to use cylindrical cells and discover how to automate the packing. Until then they are at a huge disadvantage.
Unlikely that one of them go back to round cells, both Tesla and Panasonic show that there battery business dont create great profit.And simple look to the announced capacity in europe over 200 GWH untill 2025 !!!Without higher subsidies or much lower prices thats most likely OVERPRODUCTION and an other factory not needed.
They have the highest shipping fast DC charging at 120 kWh.
They have the highest longevity // lowest loss of capacity by %/yr or %/km of any major shipping EV in the world.In 2018 about 60GWh lion cells were made.
About 25 GWh were advanced high-density motive batteries.
About 24 GWh were made by tsla (pana).Most other motive batteries were made in china for byd/calb etc. using old lifepo4, about half the energy density around 100 Wh/kg vs about 200 Wh/kg in Tesla battery packs.The tsla current M3 cells use a chemistry that uses about 4 kg of cobalt / 80 kWh.
This is much better than the next-gen 811 chemistry foreseen by other producers, soon, and not yet in production for any auto pack.
The tsla next version cell will use zero cobalt.
It is already seen, tested, and may be in limited alpha production.
Cobalt is a conflict mineral of very limited availability, globally.
Ie production cannot be economically scaled up in a few years, since cobalt is a byproduct (nickel mining), no matter what you are willing to pay.
Cobalt costs == 50.000$/ton, 50$ / kg, vs steel around 1$/kg.A typical old-style chemistry lion battery using 40 kg of cobalt for 80 kWh would cost == 2000 $ for the cobalt alone.The problem for audi/bmw/vw/honda/kia is not so much the cost.If they used 40 kg / 80 kW in the past, and 20 kg now, they can keep scaling it down.
And will.
They are all very good in process engineering and have the funds to improve results.The *critical path* for ALL of Big Auto is that even if they get the cobalt use to Tsla levels, in 2018, on tsla 2170 cells,
reliably, proven, (this takes about 24 months with 12 months of tests),
the total global cobalt production will not support more than about a few hundred thousand EV vehicles ex-tsla.
Sorry but the tesla loop work ups say a different storyTWO replacements before 400k miles
That's POS territory
www.consumeraffairs.com/...
Nice find! I get a perverted pleasure of NOT OWNING a Tesla. There is a new entry into the Tesla vocabulary: a vertical DISintegration!
all this reminds more of the beginning of motorized transportation than of 2019.
i really hope the car industry as a whole starts to recognise this.
if each and everyone wants their own standard, their own chargers, their own whatever(i hope you get what i mean), it may bear short or midterm benefits, but this is detrimental to development in the long run. | TSLA | 259.29 |
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/04/tesla-to-but-maxwell-technologies-for-4point75-a-share.html | Tesla to buy energy tech company Maxwell Technologies for about $218 million | “As TSLA works toward lowering EV prices to expand its addressable market
while maintaining [gross margins], we view battery cost, weight, and
performance... | Feb 4, 2019 | CNBC | - Tesla is acquiring Maxwell Technologies, which makes ultracapacitors, which store and deliver energy.
- Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said ultracapacitors could be a better bet for an electric tech breakthrough.
- The all-stock deal would value Maxwell at about $218 million, a 55 percent premium over its market value Friday.
Tesla plans to acquire energy technology company Maxwell Technologies for about $218 million, the company said Monday.
Tesla will buy the company's 45.9 million shares for $4.75 a share in an all-stock transaction. The deal represents a 55 percent premium over Maxwell's closing stock price of $3.07 a share Friday and would value the company at around $218 million.
"We are always looking for potential acquisitions that make sense for the business and support Tesla's mission to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy," said Tesla in a statement sent to CNBC.
Maxwell makes ultracapacitors, devices that can store and rapidly deliver surges of energy. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is a fan of the technology for electric cars. Musk has said in the past that the technology could be a more likely source of a breakthrough in electric vehicle technology than batteries. Musk even once said on Twitter that he had planned to conduct research on them at Stanford University.
Maxwell also has a process for making electric battery components that is significantly more efficient than those typically used in the industry. This process could significantly reduce the cost of producing electric vehicles, even when compared with the best battery manufacturing methods available today, Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch said in a note sent Monday.
"As TSLA works toward lowering EV prices to expand its addressable market while maintaining [gross margins], we view battery cost, weight, and performance as the key drivers," Rusch said in the note. Maxwell's intellectual property in manufacturing "plus applications for its ultracapacitor technology seem likely to be integral in evolving TSLA's pack design and performance, particularly in heavier vehicles that rely on regenerative braking for system economics." | TSLA | 259.29 |
https://observer.com/2019/02/elon-musk-telsa-us-layoff-china-factory/ | Tesla’s China Factory Begins Taking Model 3 Orders While US Layoff Unfolds | An engineer in Tesla (TSLA)'s new China factory will earn 50 percent less
than the same position in California. By Sissi Cao • 02/01/19 5:24pm. | Feb 1, 2019 | Observer | It’s no secret that Elon Musk’s ultimate goal is moving humans to Mars. But before he has enough money and time to make that happen, what he seems to be aiming for, so far, is gradually moving his business to China.
This week, more than 1,000 Tesla employees in California received layoff notices from their CEO, as part of a seven percent company-wide headcount reduction Musk announced two weeks ago. The notices would affect 802 employees in Tesla’s Fremont factory (the main assembly location), 137 at a plant in nearby Lathrop and 78 at Tesla’s headquarters in Palo Alto, Bloomberg reported on Friday.
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Starkly different was what happened in the meantime at Tesla’s new plant in China. On Friday, the automaker’s $500 million “gigafactory” in Shanghai started taking orders for the upcoming version of its long-range Model 3 cars. The new version will retail at 433,000 yuan ($64,300), about 13 percent cheaper than the previous Model 3.
Tesla has said it plans to start delivering U.S.-made Model 3 cars to Chinese customers in March and start local production in the second half of this year at a rate of 3,000 vehicles per week.
That goal will probably be just as challenging as what Musk planned for Tesla’s California factory last year, which took him more than just a few sleepless nights to finally reach. But the good news is that the painful production ramp-up will be at a lower cost this time around.
Tesla is currently hiring new staff for the China plant. According to hiring ads posted on local job sites, Tesla is offering a typical engineering position that requires five to seven years of experience a monthly salary between 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, or $3,000 to $4,450.
By comparison, a similar Tesla position in California earns $95,000 a year, or $8,000 a month, according to Glassdoor.
China is Tesla’s most important overseas market. But Washington’s ongoing trade spat with China has made it unnecessarily expensive to sell U.S.-made cars to Chinese consumers (and vice versa.) Taking a page from Harley Davidson, Elon Musk went with a “build-locally-sell-locally” strategy to avoid whatever tariffs Washington and Beijing throw at each other.
Last year, Tesla won a $140 million bid to acquire the 860,000-square-meter plant site near the outskirt of Shanghai for the “gigafactory.” Earlier this month, Musk appeared there in-person for the factory’s groundbreaking. He also met with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang during the trip to discuss Tesla’s prospects in China.
Tesla said the planned production in China was unrelated to the layoff announced two weeks ago and that it didn’t open the Shanghai factory to “replace jobs or production currently happening in the U.S.”
Correction: The article is updated with Tesla’s comment about the Shanghai factory. | TSLA | 259.29 |
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-04/lucid-in-talks-to-partner-with-carmaker-plans-ipo-in-few-years | Lucid in Talks to Partner With Carmaker, Plans IPO in Few Years | TSLA. TESLA INC. 270.13. USD. +9.59+3.68%. Open. Lucid Motors Inc. is in
talks with automakers about potentially sharing its electric-vehicle
technology and... | Feb 4, 2019 | Bloomberg.com | To continue, please click the box below to let us know you're not a robot.
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For inquiries related to this message please contact our support team and provide the reference ID below. | TSLA | 259.29 |
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4264912-tesla-pivots-to-oblivion | Tesla Pivots To Oblivion (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Tesla Pivots To Oblivion. May 17, 2019 1:30 PM ETTesla, Inc. (TSLA)BMWYY,
MBGAF,... | May 17, 2019 | Seeking Alpha | Tesla Pivots To Oblivion
Summary
- The stock is a trade vehicle.
- Financial metrics remain perilous.
- Operating efficiencies lag necessities.
- The company pivots toward Lyft and Uber.
Introduction
When the numbers speak, do not interrupt.
1. Stock
2. Finance
3. Market
4. Sales
5. Pivots
Tesla's modus operandi – fake it till you make it.
1. Stock
After five years of high volatility, Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) share price returned to $233.98, its 17th March 2014 value. It was a lacklustre investment for long-term holders, apart from early stage investors who already sold at or around local peaks to take profits. Over the same period, the Dow and Nasdaq indices gained nearly 60% and 100%, respectively. Speaking from first-hand experience, rewarded were those who traded in and out of the security frequently, whether on the long or short side.
(Source: NASDAQ)
Stock ownership
Numerous capital raises and copious stock-based compensation, handed out to employees, directors and Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk, substantially diluted long-term shareholders. The most recent capital raise will dilute shareholders by another 3.5 million shares, as the 8-K filing shows.
(Source: Tesla Inc. SEC filings)
The most recent Form 13F filings from May show that institutional ownership has not changed that much. For some larger exits like T. Rowe Price or Fidelity Investments, there have been new buyers or existing owners increasing their stake in Q1.
(Source: NASDAQ)
Institutional investors and Tesla’s CEO – who, as per the most recent Form 4 filing from early November, holds 33,824,680 shares – control the stock since IPO. There are currently well over 200 MFs and ETFs worldwide with a meaningful TSLA allocation percentage, many sharing an "eco," “green,” "growth," “tech” or “innovation” focus. Retail or pension investors seeking TSLA exposure may want to study the prospectuses of those below:
Top seven MFs:
13.71% Baron Partners Retail Fund (MUTF:BPTRX)
11.20% Baron Focused Growth Retail Fund (MUTF:BFGFX)
9.15% Fidelity Select Automotive Portfolio Fund (MUTF:FSAVX)
8.56% Nikko AM ARK Disruptive Innovation Fund (LU1861556378:USD)
6.74% GreenEffects NAI-Wertefonds (IE0005895655:EUR)
5.78% Baillie Gifford Positive Change (MUTF: BPESX)
5.53% Baillie Gifford Long Term Global Growth Eq 1 Fund (MUTF:BGLNX)
Top 7 ETFs:
10.63% ARK Industrial Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKQ)
10.54% ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK)
8.92% ARK Web x.0 ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKW)
7.72% VanEck Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF (NYSEARCA:GEX)
6.23% First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy (NYSEARCA:QCLN)
4.68% Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (NYSEARCA:LIT)
4.08% ALPS Clean Energy ETF (NYSEARCA:ACES)
Exiting a large TSLA position has become increasingly difficult because the selling of high volume blocks could trigger further sell orders, which could prompt a rapid decline of the share price over a very short timeframe – a situation that presents investors with a true Catch 22. Particularly those who bought at or around local highs may have to reassure themselves trusting the company’s recent pivot to a Level 5 autonomous taxi service operation and will probably not want to sell at current levels, but probably not add many shares either, as the company’s future is rather uncertain.
Page 72 footnote (1) of the proxy statement DEF 14A filed this April shows that on 31st December 2018 Tesla’s CEO had pledged 13,394,056 shares to banks as collateral for credit to finance his lifestyle and various undertakings – a collateral valued $4.5 billion at that date and $3.2 billion at the time of writing. With 33,824,680 shares held by the Elon Musk Revocable Trust, pledged shares amount to 39.6% of his holdings – compared to 15.8% at the time of Tesla’s IPO.
(Source: NASDAQ)
2. Finance
Although the company went public in June 2010, it's still regarded as a growth story by many institutional investors that are primarily concerned with strong rising unit sales and revenue. At the Q2 2018 earnings call, Tesla’s CEO had guided for continuous profitability from Q3 onwards. At the Q4 2018 earnings call in January 2019, Tesla’s CEO reassured investors that Q1 2019 would still be profitable.
After Model 3 volume production ramped up meaningfully, unit sales and revenue surged strongly in Q3 2018, rising only little in the following quarter. Then, Q1 2019 fell very short of expectations, disproving the CEO’s assertion from only three months before.
The 2018 revenue breakdown shows that, with 92.8% automotive related revenue, Tesla is neither a technology nor an energy company, but an automotive OEM. It should be analysed and valued as such.
(Source: Tesla Inc. SEC filings)
Until Q3 2017, Tesla was able to show positive working capital – current assets exceeding current liabilities, capital to fund day-to-day operations – but that has changed in parallel with the Model 3 ramp-up. Tesla has strung out its suppliers to employ negative working capital as a form of short-term financing. Like companies in the telecommunications or retail sector, Tesla collects cash from its customers quickly, while paying the bills from suppliers slowly. The company effectively borrows from its suppliers. The question is if in a growingly tense macroeconomic climate, and with signs of further ASP and unit sales deterioration, Tesla’s suppliers will continue to stand by.
In 2018, the company’s former CFO explained what the future would bring: “As the Model 3 ramp continues, the negative working capital needs for that, which essentially create extra cash for us, will be repeatable.” He kept his word.
(Source: Tesla Inc. SEC filings)
Automotive sales and leasing
The company apparently remains unable to improve its efficiency and cost structure meaningfully and, more importantly, sustainably. The ASP across the model mix is declining, but COGS are not declining faster, as one would expect from an OEM that follows and improves upon contemporary industry best practices.
(Source: Tesla Inc. SEC filings)
Over the last six quarters, prior to Q3 2018, Tesla made an average warranty provision per car sold of $2,491. It was reduced to only $1,786 in Q1 2019 despite the many quality issues that particularly afflict Model 3. In Q4 2018, the company sold three times as many cars as it did in Q1 the same year, yet warranty provision per car sold dropped $500.
An automaker’s warranty provision – like warranty costs incurred – is commonly part of COGS and thus it directly affects automotive gross margin. Reducing warranty provisions inflates it and many observers, including me, speculate that Tesla subsumes warranty costs in part under SG&A or the precariously deficitary services and other segment, discussed below, in order to inflate automotive gross margin further.
(Source: Tesla Inc. SEC filings)
Since Q2 2018, the value of service parts added to finished goods inventory has more than halved, although the number of cars sold doubled after. Customer service deteriorated further from already low levels: “What happened to Tesla service? @Tesla @elonmusk My P90D AC stopped working today, and Tesla no longer has any support people to talk to on weekends. Quality and support made me a loyal customer - not anymore if I can't get support when I need it. Wrong place to cut costs. 6:53 pm - 12 May 2019.” Considering paint deterioration within only one year of use, under reserving for warranty and insufficient service parts production does not bode well for the future.
(Source: Tesla Inc. SEC filings)
Although in Q3 and Q4 2018, Tesla’s sales more than doubled, with Model 3 volume production ramping up considerably, SG&A fell. Considering the administration and logistics involved in delivering two or three times as many cars as before, and preparing for Q1 2019 deliveries in Europe and China, this seems rather odd, particularly when considering SG&A as a percentage of revenue. Mapping SG&A per car sold shows the effect of layoffs, mainly on the SolarCity legacy business side, but also efficiency gains. However, though unit sales declined by -30.5%, SG&A per car sold rose again by 52%, from $7,359 to $11,173. It's imaginable that Tesla’s cavalier approach to repairs of brand new cars needs to be factored in.
(Source: Tesla Inc. SEC filings)
Energy generation and storage
Tesla’s energy generation and storage segment, once heralded a formidable growth opportunity for the company, according to the company’s highly dubious mission statement, continues to underperform. It yielded a gross margin of only 2.4% in Q1 2019, significantly lower than in the preceding quarters that were already lacklustre in their own right. Since Q4 2017, this business segment contracts with revenue dropping by -20.8%.
It was the takeover of SolarCity by Tesla in November 2016, sold to shareholders by the CEO as a “no brainer” that saw Tesla’s share price more than doubling from $181.47 to its all-time high of $383.45, while the business itself remained an underperformer, as the MW installation chart shows. Driven by greenwashing ambitions of Gov. Andrew Cuomo, the state of New York had invested $750 millions of taxes into a factory that was to produce PV solar cells based on a amalgamation of Panasonic’s (OTCPK:PCRFY) own and Silevo’s allegedly revolutionary “TRIEX” HIT-technology, both later turning out incompatible. Eventually, Tesla put SolarCity’s Silevo effort to bed and Panasonic resorted to selling most of its PV solar cell output to any paying taker. Tesla was to provide 1,460 jobs by April 2020, meaning it would have to double April 2019 employment figures, but Tesla’s PV solar business continues winding down.
This April, Tesla had abandoned its prior PV solar panel sales channels and instead adopted an online-only sales approach, trying to offload roof surveying and electric equipment assessment work to its potential customers in order to cut SG&A. More importantly, in a further attempt to rekindle sales and generate urgently needed cash, the company decided to cut prices for its PV solar panels and associated equipment by up to 16% below the national average. What will happen to Tesla’s PV solar ambitions and its job generation commitment is uncertain. The company’s PV solar shingles, years after launch, remain far from contributing to the bottom line, if they ever will as Ryan Brinkman of JPMorgan noted this April.
(Source: Tesla Inc. SEC filings)
The segment’s financial metrics reveal that also Tesla’s home and grid battery storage business remains a lacklustre niche effort, even after selling the then world’s largest grid battery storage system to the French company Neoen in 2018 for use with its Australia wind power farm. Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison compared the project to having the world’s biggest banana or prawn, saying it doesn’t solve Australia’s energy problems, and Australian Tomago Aluminium’s CEO Matt Howell noted that the Hornsdale battery storage could only power an aluminum smelter for around eight minutes.
Tesla’s tensions with Panasonic are rising. Panasonic is halting investment in the still not completed Nevada battery cell and pack factory after showing much generosity in the first half of 2018 that allowed Tesla to deliver its unexpected gross margin miracle in Q3 2019. On 1st May 2019 Nikkei Asian Review came out with a diplomatically packaged critique of the Panasonic-Tesla relationship that showed how strained it has become of late. Although the contract with Panasonic necessitates that the company must take a certain quantity of battery cells, and it deploys the surplus for its energy storage products that generate sales, Tesla should probably consider divesting its energy generation and storage business segment, as it contributes nothing to the bottom line while diverting financial and human resources urgently needed elsewhere.
Services and other
Particularly the services and other business segment, consisting of service, maintenance, repair and sales of used/off-lease and trade-in cars, has become a considerable loss generator. Sector gross margin deteriorated to -39.1% in Q1 2019. Analysts like Tony Sacconaghi of Sanford Bernstein suspect that in order to improve automotive gross margin, a metric many institutional investors are focusing on, Tesla may be accounting a portion of its rising warranty expenses, costs that should be booked to automotive COGS, in this segment. On page 38 of its recent 10-Q, Tesla also admitted that the ASP of its trade-in cars keeps falling due to discounts offered for new vehicle purchases.
(Source: Tesla Inc. SEC filings)
Capital raise I
Since 2013, Tesla has burned through $226 million raised at its 2010 IPO and $8.1 billion raised by selling stock and bonds, primarily in the spring season. In nearly nine years, neither shareholder value was created, nor did the company show an annual profit to let investors eventually financially benefit in form of dividends. In order to realise monetary gains, investors instead had to trade the stock on the long or short side.
Tesla’s CEO appears having a predilection for claiming not needing to raise capital. In February 2012, he told analysts that the company would not have to raise capital. In October 2016, he again told analysts that the company would not have to raise capital. In April 2018, he once again told analysts that the company would not have to raise capital. The exact contrary was the case.
The company has seen liquidity crises approaching on several occasions. Ashley Vance’s biography of Tesla’s CEO revealed that Tesla approached Google in early 2013 as the company was close to no longer meeting its financial obligations. In a Recode Decode Q&A from early November 2018, Tesla’s CEO admitted that in the months preceding September that year, the company was facing insolvency. Later re-affirmed in an interview with Axios Media Inc. Many observers that inferred a similarly terminal predicament from the company’s financial disclosures were vindicated. The Seeking Tesla article I published early September 2018 was apparently correct in its assumptions.
Capital raise II
By mid-March 2019, Tesla must have come close to running out of cash again. The company ended Q1 2019 with $2.2 billion in cash of which $768 million were non-escrow customer deposits, already spent. Tesla delivered much of its quarterly sales volume – around 20,000 cars – towards the end of March, spurred on by an internal “all hands on deck” email like the one from Q3 2016. At an ASP of $81,333 across the model mix, this would represent $1.6 billion cash coming in very late in the quarter, indicating a precarious financial situation, a cash crisis. Not surprisingly, several analysts and observers were certain that another capital raise was not only necessary but also imminent.
(Source: Tesla Inc. SEC filings)
On 3rd May 2019, the company indeed raised $2.7 billion capital to maintain its solvency and to be able to pay back SolarCity’s $566 million senior convertible notes due 1st November 2019, making it the company’s largest capital raise to date. The rationale for the transaction, presented to investors at a call with its underwriters, is that the company sees its future earnings potential by repositioning itself as a taxi service operator that from 2020 onwards will manage Level 5 autonomous vehicles - lease returns and its customers’ cars that will appreciate in value up to $250,000 in only three years. In pivoting to that narrative, Tesla hopes to capture the excitement of Lyft’s (LYFT) and Uber’s (UBER) IPOs and thus justifying its current and future valuation, projected to be $500 billion by the company’s CEO.
The terms of the capital raise are not as favorable as they appear at first sight. The company sold $847.6 million in stock and $1.84 billion in bonds, the latter carrying a true cost of 6.5% - 8.5%. Tesla had to enter an additional note hedging transaction – long-dated calls – for $475.8 million from underwriters for the convertible senior notes portion of the deal, while receiving $174.4 million for the sale of additional warrants. With Tesla having burnt through $644.7 million cash in Q1 – and Q2 unit sales not looking good at the time of writing mid May – the effective proceeds of $2.38 billion may not last beyond Q4 2019, considering its enormous capital expenditure needs and the $566 million SolarCity bond maturity on 1st November this year. Tesla also still carries a $165 million SolarCity term loan, originally due in January 2019, later pushed back to April and now extended to June, as page 21 of the Q1 2019 10-Q shows in a footnote. Interestingly, the additional $1.84 billion unsecured debt matures before Tesla’s 2025 5.3% junk bond, the yield of the latter having risen considerably to 8.478% at the time of writing.
(Source: Bond Supermart)
Capital expenditures
Tesla’s capital expenditures have declined to levels last seen before Q4 2016. In Q1 2019, the company only spent $279.9 million – the rest of the total expenditure of $305 million going to the purchase of PV solar systems. Page 35 of the Q1 2019 10-Q shows that Tesla guided for capital expenditures of up to $2.5 billion for the year “to continue to develop our main projects including Gigafactory Shanghai, Model Y and Tesla Semi, as well as to further expand our Supercharger and vehicle service and repair networks.” The Model Y is supposedly going on sale in late 2020.
On 29th January, Caixin reported that China Construction Bank Corp., Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. provide a $521 million loan maturing in March 2020 with an option to borrow another $700 million. Exhibit 10.69 to the Q1 2019 10-Q shows the details of the loan agreement. The total credit not only finances the Pudong facility but also explicitly – see page 10 3.1.2 – allows Tesla to order production equipment, raw materials, etc. to start Model 3 production for volume from Q1 2020 onwards in China. Cloning Model 3 production in China will consume less capital compared to that needed to produce an entirely new vehicle.
With $1.4 billion in cash after customer deposits plus $2.4 billion capital just raised and generous Chinese financing, it seems that the company can probably manage to shoulder its capital expenditures required, even considering that its cash burn could continue in Q2 2019 or beyond.
(Source: Tesla Inc. SEC filings)
Regulatory credits I
The amount of regulatory credits Tesla can sell has risen since Q2 2017. In Q3 2018, 60.8% of net profit came from regulatory credit sales and 67.9% in Q4 2018, throwing a very different light on the profitability achieved in these two quarters. In Q1 2019, a perplexing 6.1% of automotive revenue originated from regulatory credit sales.
(Source: Tesla Inc. SEC filings)
For several quarters, Tesla no longer disclosed total regulatory credit revenue in its 8-K shareholder letter, instead reporting it only in some of its 10-Qs. In several years, regulatory credit revenue was only disclosed in full in its 10-K SEC filings and investors are forced to piece total regulatory credit sales together from multiple disclosures. The company generated $1.92 billion regulatory credit revenue, nearly 100% net margin, equalling $5,015 for the 382,509 reportedly sold in the U.S. since IPO.
(Source: Tesla Inc. SEC filings)
Tesla had and still has to rely on governmental action in the U.S. to be able to generate sufficient regulatory credits and to count on stricter governmental regulations in its other sales regions Europe and China, because it's subsidies, incentives and benefits for buyers of expensive EVs that drive the artificially-created global EV market – and Tesla’s sales in particular. Wherever governments reduce or remove their market interference, the company’s sales decline to near zero instantly after a typical pre-reduction buying-spree, as evidenced in The Netherlands, Denmark, Hong Kong and minor sales regions. After Germany, Canada and other nations have put an eligibility cap on EV sales prices to reign in the misallocation of public funds, China also is intent on reducing its national and regional subsidies from 2020 onward.
(Source: Tesla Motors Club Europe, national vehicle registrations)
It's essential to point out that regulatory credit sales also increase Tesla’s automotive gross margin, calculated differently from that of other automakers. Unlike its peers, Tesla includes neither R&D nor the operation of its own dealerships in automotive cost of revenue. The gross margin metric also is a driver for the CEO’s stock option awards. Analysts have so far refrained from questioning Tesla’s highly problematic gross margin calculation and thus heavily skewed industry peer comparison in conference calls and research notes. For Q1 2019 automotive gross margin would have come in at 15.6% instead of 20.2%, a material difference of about 25%.
It's obvious that, apart from frequently selling stock and bonds, Tesla is heavily reliant on recurrent and growing monetary windfalls from various kinds of governmental actions. One can go as far as to say that Tesla is the one and only GovernmentMotors – the only automaker that's 100% dependent on political decision making.
Regulatory credits II
On 25th February, the EU commission published a declaration of intent between Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) and Tesla to pool their cars sold in Europe to meet the 2020 EU emission targets by averaging fleet emissions, yet another politically facilitated source of 100% net-margin income for Tesla. The declaration of intent is initially valid for 2019. Several other OEMs intend to form two additional pools among themselves.
On 7th April 2019, the Financial Times reported the existence of the FCA Tesla pool, noting rather non-specifically: “Fiat Chrysler Automobiles has agreed to pay Tesla hundreds of millions of euros.”
On 3rd April 2019, the Financial Times reported that FCA would pay Tesla €1.8 billion ($2 billion). This is not quite the case, as evidence from both company’s quarterly filings, annual reports and management statements show.
First, the disclosures by Tesla:
10-K 2018 page 83: “We had no deferred revenue related to sales of automotive regulatory credits as of December 31, 2018 and 2017.” This shows, as in all prior quarters or years, that there was no deferred regulatory credit revenue from FCA or another OEM.
10-Q Q1 2019 page 10: “Deferred revenue related to sales of automotive regulatory credits was $140.0 million (…). We expect to recognize the deferred revenue as of March 31, 2019 over the next two to three years.” It's possible that this rather limited cash inflow, drawn out over a long period, could be attributed to the FCA pooling deal in the EU; but it could be attributed also to FCA or other OEMs buying regulatory credits from the company in the U.S.
Earnings call transcript 24th April: Asked about the FCA deal by analyst Philippe Houchois from Jefferies, Tesla’s CEO replied, “I think it’s a confidential deal with FCA so we and we agreed with FCA not to comment on it publicly so we must abide by that.”
Second, the disclosures by FCA:
20-F (“10-K”) 2018 page 259: “(6) Purchase obligations are comprised of (…) and (III) commitments to purchase intangible assets relating to regulatory emissions credits for an aggregate amount of approximately €75 million.” It's possible that this 2019 purchase obligation already relates to the Tesla pooling deal in the EU, but it could also be attributed to buying regulatory credits from Tesla or other OEMs in the U.S. It's enlightening to see that FCA lists existing and pending regulatory mandates pertaining to emissions it all sales regions, and how they could affect the passenger and commercial vehicle market going forward, while Tesla neither educates its shareholders on the matter nor discusses its fundamental dependency on it.
6-K (“10-Q”) Q1 2019 page 9: “Included within cost of revenues for the three months ended March 31, 2019, and 2018 were amounts of €170 million and €82 million, respectively, which represents the accrual of regulatory expenses and the utilization of regulatory credits, primarily in North America and, for the 2019 period, also in EMEA.” Then, on page 54, the company states “During the three months ended March 31, 2019, FCA entered into multi-year non-cancellable agreements for purchases of regulatory emissions credits in various jurisdictions with total commitments of €1.8 billion. The purchased credits are expected to be used for compliance years through 2023.”
Earnings call transcript 3rd May: Richard Palmer, CFO “We did enter into various agreements in the quarter to ensure that we have access to regulatory credits to complement our vehicle launch strategy towards meeting emissions compliance in EMEA and NAFTA going forward. So the total commitment under those - under those contracts is about €1.8 billion, which will be spent over the next three years (…) the compliance costs for EMEA for this year we target - we're expecting at around €120 million, going into next year we would expect that to increase.”
3. Market
Global sales shift
The global market for passenger vehicles is undergoing a fundamental shift. Auto market analysts JATO saw sales in Europe and China declining in 2018, while North American sales stalled. Despite high consumer confidence, a moderate sales decline is forecast for 2019, and going forward, as the aging populations in the aforementioned three global sales regions predominantly seek replacement purchases. The Chinese auto market, far from the latter situation, is nevertheless in its eleventh month of significant decline.
All the while, fundamental sales growth persists in South America, Asia Pacific and India, despite short-term fluctuations, with Africa slowly appearing on the horizon as a meaningful sales region. Consumers in those regions are emerging from poverty to modest wealth by the tens of millions each year. The global relevance of Europe and North America as core drivers of global consumption continues to decline, with most consumers seeing little wage growth and ever more precarious employment.
In parallel to the latter paradigm shift, consumer demand differentiates itself further. Europe, China and North America see strong demand for CUVs, SUVs and pick-up trucks, whereas South America, Asia Pacific and India see continuously high demand for smaller robust passenger vehicles, apart from wealthy urban consumer cohorts that display a growing propensity for the aforementioned vehicle types preferred on the northern hemisphere. Tesla so far neither caters to demand in global growth areas nor does it offer estates, convertibles, fastbacks or coupés.
Global EV market
The global market for EVs, meaning HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs and FCEVs, continues to grow at a slower pace than many optimistic analysts anticipated in recent years. The revolutionary disruption of personal transportation, assumed with certainty by many exuberant analysts, failed to occur once again, and EVs saw only 2.9% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2018. Investors concerned with the qualitative and quantitative developments of global EV markets should inform themselves at EV volumes and ICCT instead of via company affiliated blogs and fan sites.
EV sales growth only occurs in sales regions where strict governmental regulation either financially entices or legally forces EV adoption for two main reasons – citizens’ environmental concerns in California, Florida, Norway or The Netherlands on the one hand – or particulate emission reduction and future global automotive sector domination plans in China on the other. In any case, the global EV market remains artificial, with governments in control instead of market forces.
A side effect of un-coordinated governmental intervention is that it often promotes, possibly inadvertently, expensive, oversized, overweight and thus highly unsustainable BEVs, making them particularly attractive for wealthy households that often purchase EVs as a secondary or even tertiary vehicle – as a material feel-good icon that shall demonstrate their concern for the environment. However, wanting to better the world by way of oversized overweight BEVs amounts to nothing but arriving at the beach to drain the ocean with a teaspoon.
The main barriers to EV adoption, particularly in sales regions with low or no subsidies, incentives and benefits, are high price and insurance premiums, followed by range, particularly during the winter season, and the lack of ubiquitous and convenient city and roadside charging infrastructure. The existing strata of high net worth individuals in the aforementioned global growth regions are too small to effect a swift substantial fleet rotation away from ICEVs. For most consumers in those regions, used cars and low-priced ICEVs will remain the dominant vehicle type of choice, the car being the costliest discretionary purchase for most households.
The global fleet rotation, with over 1.3 billion ICEVs currently in use, will take decades. The imaginary tipping point remains chimerical.
(Source: OICA, EV-Volumes, BNEF)
4. Sales
After eventually rising strongly with higher volume production of Model 3, fulfilling years of pent-up demand with the FIT credit halving deadline in view, Tesla’s global sales nearly plateaued with a sales increase of only 8.3% from Q3 to Q4 2018, to then fall considerably by -30.5% in Q1 2019, severely damaging the company’s growth narrative.
At the end of Q1 2019, the delta between Tesla’s production and sales grew to 34,106 units. With 10,600 cars in transit at the end of the quarter, that leaves 23,506 “missing” cars unaccounted for since 2013. At an ASP of $81,333 across the model mix, this represents $1.9 billion in unrealized revenue. To this day, the company has not clarified the whereabouts of these missing vehicles, meaning how many the company retained as loaners or service vehicles and how many were scrapped.
(Source: Tesla Inc. SEC filings)
On 30th January 2019, Tesla’s CEO stated in the Q4 2018 shareholder letter that the company expects to deliver 360,000 to 400,000 cars in 2019. A few hours later, Tesla’s CEO said on the Q4 2018 earnings call that the company will deliver 350,000 to 500,000 Model 3s in 2019. On 19th February, Tesla’s CEO tweeted Tesla will make around 500,000 cars in 2019 to then tweet Tesla will rather achieve a 500,000 car production run-rate at the end of 2019. On 28th February, Tesla’s CEO said on a call with journalists that the company will produce 420,000 to 600,000 cars in 2019. On 3rd April 2019, Tesla’s CEO stated in the Q1 2019 shareholder letter that the company expects to deliver 360,000 to 400,000 cars in 2019, as initially stated in January. Erratic management guidance for core product production and sales does certainly not help to restore investor confidence.
The question is how the current and future model mix with substantially lower Model S and X sales – albeit both models soon refreshed with a more efficient drive train and faster charging – as well as rather stagnant and lower-end Model 3 sales will compress automotive sales revenue and gross margin. I expect unit sales to remain lacklustre in Q2 and cash flow problems resurfacing in the fourth quarter this year.
Europe Model S and X
Disproving claims to seasonality, Model S Q1 2019 sales declined substantially by -58.3% YoY (-59% to Q1 2017) while Model X Q1 2019 sales declined equally significantly by -33.3% YoY (-45.2% to Q1 2017). Sales are beginning to be impacted by the arrival of Model 3 and the disadvantageous EV taxation change in The Netherlands, one of Tesla’s formerly three core sales regions in Europe, with Norway and the UK now remaining the only two. The price discounting the company reported on page 38 and 40 of its Q1 2019 10-Q and the advantageous company EV taxation change in Germany failed to rekindle European sales. Already now, and more so in the future, competitors’ offerings cannibalize the sales of Tesla’s aging high-ASP models, and April with half of May showed no improvement.
Norway’s Dagens Næringsliv reported that within one year, Tesla fell from fourth to 51st place in customer satisfaction, due to consistently low quality and lack of adequate customer service. Rental buyers, a customer bracket into which Tesla could offload much inventory in times of need, are experiencing massive problems, not only in China, but also in Europe. EC-Rent from the Netherlands had to abandon their Tesla rental fleet “due to increasing technical defects and the lack of a fast delivery of parts from Tesla, we had to halt half of our Teslas in our rental fleet from mid-December. Since this is no longer tenable and a solution does not seem to be within reach, our activities are currently discontinued.” Umeå Eltaxi in northern Sweden went bankrupt over the lack and cost of Tesla service.
(Source: Tesla Motors Club Europe, national vehicle registrations)
(Source: Tesla Motors Club Europe, national vehicle registrations)
Europe Model 3
Three years of pent-up demand saw Model 3 sales rising into the end of Q1 2019, after sales began to ramp up when the RWD long-range version first became available in January. Since early April, customers also can order the lower-priced standard range plus variant with 386km range, starting from €45,480 alongside the AWD long-range version starting from €55,780 with 496km range – in other words paying €10,300 for a 110km “larger fuel tank.” From inventory level in Norway and elsewhere, it's safe to say that April sales volume resulted from an overflow of cars that were shipped but not delivered yet. Also for the lack of a RHD model, the UK being Tesla’s second-largest European sales region, April sales fell short of February sales by a low number.
Shipping activity to Europe has been low in April and May so far and it's still uncertain if Tesla can ship as many units to arrive in time for delivery in Q2 as it shipped in Q1. With the AWD long-range sales cycle on the wane, the standard range plus could carry the torch into Q3, but ASP and margins will be affected.
Model 3 operating cost savings, one of Tesla’s most prominent sales arguments besides straight-line acceleration, do not materialise for many Europeans: The Model 3 SR+ with 415km range starts at €45,480, which is over €13,000 more compared to the Škoda Octavia Premium 2.0 TDI that features more options, better interior and a higher fit and finish quality. The Model 3 uses 20kWh per 100km driven in mild weather on city and country roads, which means that at €0,29 cost of domestic electricity per kWh in Germany – Tesla’s own charger cost per kWh being higher – the cost per 100km is €5.8, whereas the Škoda uses 5.3l diesel per 100km under the same conditions. At a cost of €1.24 per litre diesel, the cost per 100km is €6.6. At an average of 15,000km driven per year, the operating cost difference is a mere €120 per year and is further diminished in the cold and winter weather season via battery pre-heating and battery discharge, as well as via higher insurance and repair costs.
After 108 years of use, the Tesla would come out on par with the Škoda, as far as fuel costs are concerned.
(Source: Tesla Motors Club Europe, national vehicle registrations)
U.S. Model S and X
Invalidating common but false claims to seasonality also in the U.S., Model S Q1 2019 sales declined by -31.6% YoY (-40.6% to Q1 2017) while Model X Q1 2019 sales declined by -12.5% YoY (-10.5% to Q1 2017). Sales were impacted by the arrival of Model 3 and the 50% FIT-credit reduction from January 2019, further reduced to $1,850 from July 2019 onwards. The substantial discounting of up to $18,000 for both models the company alluded to on page 38 and 40 of its Q1 2019 10-Q and a compensatory price reduction of $2,000 Tesla offered across the range from January 2019 onwards apparently did not rekindle U.S. sales, too. The arrival of Model 3 and some competitors’ offerings likely began to cannibalise sales of Tesla’s ageing high-ASP models and April showed no improvement.
Consumer Reports files Model X under the 10 least reliable cars due to problematic body hardware, paint and trim, in-car electronics, noises and leaks. Several accidents under scrutiny of the NTSB, which some observers speculate to be attributable to Tesla’s “Autopilot” Level 2 driver assistance feature and spontaneous battery fires of stationary cars, do not instill much confidence in the company’s ability to improve safety and quality of its cars.
U.S. Model 3
Two years of pent-up demand saw Model 3 sales rising slowly after the car became first available as RWD long-range version in July 2017. Already in October 2018, that version was discontinued to resurface as a mid-range version, likewise discontinued in March 2019, with the long-range version becoming available again, but only by telephone call or in-store appointment. From July 2018 onwards, the AWD and AWD performance long-range versions went on sale, starting from $49,500 and 59,500 respectively, and sales rose strongly into the end of the year. Early February 2019, a $35,000 RWD standard range went on sale, in order for the company to be able to claim that it eventually achieved offering a mass-market Model 3. However, that version was on sale only six weeks and is since then sold only by telephone call or in-store appointment. This low-end version soon metamorphosed into an RWD standard range plus. On 11th March, Tesla’s CEO took to tweeting, as is often the case, to boost sales by announcing an imminent 3% price increase, however, high discounting went on, as TMC forums show. Since 12th April 2019, Tesla is also offering a lease option for the Model 3 with a $3,000 down payment and no right to purchase the car at the end of the lease, because the cars are reserved for the company’s Level 5 autonomous taxi service operation.
Model 3 sales spiked in the previous quarter due to the FIT-credit reduction. Then, sales fell precipitously in Q1 2019 despite discounting and discontinuation of the 75 kWh Model S and X. Sales did not pick up in April and could remain somewhat low in May also, until the next FIT-credit reduction from July 2019 onwards and a reduced $399 per month lease offering could improve June sales and carry volume into Q3. At the time of writing, Tesla has lifted the price again by $1,400 for the RWD long range and $400 for all other models, as well as raising the price of FSD to $6,000. Tesla’s erratic and haphazard model and pricing policy reveal there is no proper strategy in place.
Canada Model 3
Meanwhile, as of May, Tesla begun to exploit Canadian subsidy regulations by offering a 93 mile limited bare-bones Model 3 RWD standard range that slips under the $45,000 (Canadian) threshold by a single dollar. In doing so, the $53,700 RWD standard range plus is now eligible for the $5,000 subsidy, because it's considered a “trim level” of the base model. Like in the U.S., the 93-mile version can only be ordered by phone or via in-store appointment, the regular model however is available on-line. This interpretation of regulatory loopholes is in line with Tesla exploiting the California ZEV credit regulations by way of theoretical battery swap station functionality of Model S and exploiting the German subsidy regulations by offering a bare-bones Model S below the subsidy threshold that was then lifted to higher ASPs by customers having to order what used to be standard trim as extras.
Consumer Reports removed Model 3 from its recommended cars list in February 2019 due to its problematic body hardware and trim. Paint is chipping off new northern European Model 3s, the cars likely having been tested only on California highways in fair weather.
China Model S, X and 3
Trade and tariff tensions between the U.S. and China negatively affected Model S and X sales from July 2018. China introduced a 40% tariff on imported U.S. cars, reduced later to 15%, until the issues were to be resolved in April or May 2019. At the time of writing, trade and tariff talks came to an adversarial stalemate with enormous tariffs levied on a broad range of Chinese goods. The dispute could evolve into a cold war of containers and seriously damage Tesla’s prospects in China regarding product sales and Pudong Model 3 factory effort.
To counteract Chinese retaliatory measures, Tesla raised Model S and X prices by around 20% only to cut them again by 12-26% in late November 2018. The company also announced Model 3 going on sale from $77,928 upwards only to cut prices again in late December 2018 to $72,000. From February 2019 onwards, Tesla also offered free enhanced autopilot for all Model 3 orders to grow sales. While Model S and X sales did not recover yet, the company did manage to ship Model 3 in the latter half of Q1 2019 after import declaration problems were resolved with Chinese customs. Shipping activity to China has so far been low in April and May, and it's uncertain if Tesla can ship substantially more units to arrive in time for delivery in Q2.
(Source: Tesla Inc. SEC filings)
In part due to the company’s amateur approach to automation and production, the quality of cars shipped to China remains as problematic as elsewhere. Chinese customers are showing their growing discontent with Tesla’s susceptibility to defects and sub-par service offering. This year, already three Model S spontaneously caught fire, two at a Shanghai charger and Shanghai underground car park and one at a Hong Kong shopping mall car park. A Chengdu rental and taxi company operating 278 Model S and X became so displeased it took out large billboard adverts in New York’s Times Square to demand proper service and compensation for losses occurred, many cars not properly repaired for over a year.
Despite decades of American IC design, layout and fabrication prowess, with short-term involvement of Jim Keller of Apple and AMD IC design fame, Tesla insisted that it had to turn to Chinese experts in order to obtain the “brain” that's instrumental in its Level 5 autonomous driving effort, replacing Nvidia (NVDA) as a supplier. The company stated: “For a product as safety critical to consumers, and critical to the essence of Tesla, we turned to industry experts who could achieve this quality and complexity in addition to the deadlines, which was not possible outside of China.” On 3rd May, U.S. trade officials rejected Tesla’s bid for relief from President Trump’s 25% tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S., on its Chinese-made “brain” for Model 3.
Tesla’s plan for success in China now depends on the start of quality volume production at the Pudong factory. It even more so depends on how and when the U.S.-China tariff and trade dispute can be amicably resolved.
Global near-term outlook
For Tesla to meet 2019 lower-end guidance of 360,000 sales, the company must sell 99,000 cars in each of the remaining three quarters. With April and half of May over, based on cars in transit and shipping activity, I estimate Q2 sales (and sales drivers) as follows: 22,000 Model 3 Europe (standard range plus, more shipping volume); 30,000 Model 3 North America (standard range plus, leasing); 12,000 Model 3 China (more shipping volume) and 16,000 Model S and X global (higher range, discounts) for 80,000 total sales at shrinking ASPs and margins.
5. Pivots
Compared to the customary ado and splendour surrounding Tesla product launches, factory grand openings and announcements of imminent announcements, the “Model Y unveiling” and “Autonomy Day” came and went almost clandestinely, much to the chagrin of analysts and investors who expected a CEO on stage in top form, with spectacular new offerings in tow.
Model Y
When Tesla rolled out the Model Y prototype on 14th March, it treated investors to what must have been one of the most harrowing product launches in recent automobile history. Model Y arrived as Model 3 in disguise, an exercise in generic brand extension, scaled up the Z-axis, sharing 75% of the latter’s parts bin. Presented as mid-size SUV seating seven passengers to the disbelief on onlookers, the car is a CUV at best, supposedly going on sale in late 2020 with a starting price of $39,000 in its most lacklustre RWD standard range incarnation. Analysts were not amused and the company remained silent on how many $1,000 reservation deposits it has collected to date.
This one goes to 11
With impeccable timing, two days before the disastrous Q1 2019 results were disclosed, with the urgently needed capital raise in the works at Tesla’s go-to underwriters, Tesla held an “Autonomy Day” on 22nd April, followed by a “broad investor call” on 2nd May. Both events were staged to bedazzle analysts, investors and the public with an outlandish proposition of such magnitude that would see alchemy emerging as prudent scientific endeavour:
The company proposed no less than pivoting to become a Level 5 autonomous taxi company.
With that, Tesla intends to steam well beyond its current valuation in the slipstream of Lyft’s and Uber’s IPOs, segueing into operating a ride sharing service that Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas intimated to Tesla’s CEO at a 2015 conference call. Once pivoted, the company would catapult itself towards a $500 billion market capitalization from 2020 onwards, while existing customers’ cars would appreciate towards $250,000 apiece as they age. Tesla would operate Model 3 lease returns, lessees no longer allowed to purchase the car upon contract expiry, competing with Tesla owners who would put their cars at the disposal of Tesla’s “ride sharing network.” If any of this sounds bizarre, that's because it is.
Autonomous driving pioneers like Mobileye’s Amnon Shashua and Waymo’s John Krafcik have more than once cautioned that Level 5 autonomous driving may be decades away, if it ever arrives. Level 5 autonomy meaning no less than a robotic car that would need neither user input nor user controls; able to drive itself at any time, on any terrain, in any place, in any weather, in any traffic condition.
Too much pseudoscientific nonsense already has been written on this topic, the current “next big thing,” and so I end this article by leaving the reader to admire four exquisite but all too common traffic scenarios that will see Tesla’s “brain” return from the effort wearing a dunce cap.
Sweden winter normalcy, Dresden signage puzzle, Hong Kong construction maze, Adelaide killer roundabout
Conclusion
This year, the final word, by courtesy of the Book of Daniel:
MENE, MENE, TEKEL, UPHARSIN
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long TSLA, VLKAF, MMTOF. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
This is no recommendation to buy or sell securities as that carries with it very high risks. The information contained in this article is for informational purposes only and subject to change at any time. Do your own due diligence and consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decision.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (1,098)
Metropolis?
2. Quiff
3. Billionaire
4. Saving the world
5. Future for our childrenFemale emotional marketing hooks, if sunken deep enough in the fish's throat, can't be beaten; in terms of marketing whitespace occupation. Read Marty Neumeier's old but still very valid marketing-book on how this works www.martyneumeier.com/...I'm sure you can replicate this in Bristol or Bath: Attend a Branch Elonian affiliated meeting/conference/fair. Ask the gals and the lads. The lads love 0-60. The gals love the whole shebang. And that is the fundamental difference.Germany's number one export - "German Angst" - has been successful beyond anyone's imagination.
"We all know AGW is quack science"No, we don't...
No one knows if the accounting is right.
know one knows when he will tweet again.
no one knows when he will smoke pot again.
we all know it is going to $100 or less period.
"If the numbers are awful again the stock could go down 50% in 1 day."This slow grind lower is causing my hopes for a "down $100 in one day", to fade...much easier to get that at $300 per share, than $150.
"There are hundreds of greedy Haters who are wrecking what was once a fine company"That characterization may have held water all the way up to the "$420 Tweet". Once Elon did that, the gloves came off and it was clear he would beg borrow and steal to keep the stock price up.If it's only about saving the environment, what does he care about the stock price?
Yesterday, while waiting in line for the Avengers movie, I saw that the theater was offering a combo pack – a large bucket of popcorn (worth $8) and a large soda (worth $8) for just $12. But then I had an idea: What if I sold half of my Diet Coke to the next person in line? The medium soda, half the size of the large, cost $6. So to make it worth his while, I could sell it to him for $3.
This would be a good deal for both of us. I would be left with my bucket of popcorn (worth $8) and a medium soda (worth $6) and would pay just $9 for it after my side transaction. And the guy behind me would get a medium soda for half the price. Only the theater would lose out… It should have received $14 from me and $6 from my new friend but would ultimately get just $12.
Why am I telling you this story?
Because a similar set of transactions played out with Tesla last week when the company sold $1.6 billion of convertible bonds and $750 million in stock.
A convertible bond pays an interest rate (in this case, 2%) and can be exchanged for a fixed number of shares if the stock rises (in this case, if the stock rises to $309.83 from the issuance price of $243). Convertible bond buyers appear to get a good deal – in the downside scenario, they’re senior to shareholders and receive interest and principal upon maturity (albeit at a lower interest rate than traditional debt). And if the stock soars, they can convert their bonds to shares and benefit from the gains above the conversion price.
But as with seemingly everything associated with Tesla, things are not what they seem. While bulls cheered what seemed to be a successful offering, I actually think this financing revealed what a desperate situation Tesla is in. Let me explain.
Using the analogy above, Tesla is the movie theater. It sold the combo pack (convertible bonds and stock) to underwriters (me), who sold all of the popcorn (the convertible bonds) and some of the soda (stock) to the guy behind me in line (investors).
But here’s the kicker: The underwriters sold half of the soda (stock) back to Tesla for more than Tesla originally sold it. The convertible bond buyers did well. The stock buyers did, too. Only the movie theater (Tesla) lost out on the deal.
In reality, it’s more complicated than that, and the math is tricky. But the bottom line is simple: The underwriters and investors made money at Tesla’s expense.
So why did Tesla do it? Because it desperately needed the cash and had no other way to raise it – other than issuing super-expensive capital.
Let’s take a closer look at the transaction using the numbers from the prospectus. The company issued $750 million in stock (approximately 3 million shares at a price per share of $243). It also issued $1.6 billion of convertible notes with a 2% interest rate. The note holders can convert the notes into stock at a share price of $309.83, ultimately representing 5.2 million shares.
But here’s the key: Along with the offering, Tesla paid $413.8 million to purchase a call option. The stated purpose was to offset the dilution the company would incur if the convertible notes convert into stock.
Think of a convertible note as debt with an option to buy the stock. We can segregate these components of value in the convertible bond. In this case, if the value of the option is the $413.8 million, then the bond is worth about $1.2 billion ($1.6 billion less the $413.8 million). With these numbers, Tesla’s effective interest rate on the bond component is 8.5%. In other words, Tesla in effect just issued an 8.5% bond.
Why would Tesla go through so much trouble (and pay the banks such high fees) instead of just issuing an 8.5% bond? Simple: Few investors want to buy huge amounts of debt in a risky, money-losing company like Tesla.
The convertible bondholders have no such risk because they have (or will soon have) shorted the stock against their convertible bond. If the company sinks, they’ll make money on the short position. And if it succeeds, they’ll make money on their convertible bond. It’s a risk-free 8.5% return for them.
But Tesla bought the $413.8 million hedge from the underwriters – the people who repackaged the stock that was purchased in the offering. Yes, the same stock that Tesla sold in its equity deal was repackaged as a call option that Tesla bought, in effect, a round trip for that stock.
For dealers to create the hedge for Tesla to buy, they need approximately one-third of the shares (1.73 million) underlying the convertible bond. Let that sink in – 1.73 million shares out of the 3 million issued – more than half of the entire stock offering – were required to repackage a security to sell back to Tesla! This underscores what a difficult time Tesla had finding investors.
The rest of the transaction falls into place from there. There wasn’t much stock left to sell, so the underwriters went to existing shareholders and convinced them that this transaction would give the company some breathing room. That’s good for the stock, and existing shareholders are already believers.
As for the convertible, that’s easy to place as long as it’s possible to short the underlying stock. And of course, the underwriters are happy, they make $30 million in underwriting fees and only they know how much Tesla overpaid for the hedging transactions. While I don’t know the exact amount the company overpaid, keep in mind the negotiations were between a first-deal, novice 34-year-old CFO and veteran dealmakers at Goldman Sachs (GS).
In addition to the structure of the deal, one important element of this issuance really troubles me: In the prospectus, the company calls itself a manufacturer of cars and solar-energy systems.
However, if you listened to the single sales call for the deal, which was only open to large, well-connected funds, Musk stated that the manufacturing of cars and solar-energy systems is simply a “backstop to value” and that Tesla’s path to a $500 billion market cap is via autonomous driving and robotaxis. This concept is nowhere to be found in Tesla’s publicly filed selling document. This is a blatant violation of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rules to selectively share highly material information.
In light of this, why isn’t the SEC blocking the sale of these securities? Because Tesla did a transaction that the SEC doesn’t review!
In my many decades on Wall Street, I have never once seen a company present one business plan in their regulatory filings while privately pitching an entirely different one to select investors. This behavior is outrageous, and we’ll see if Tesla’s acquisition of Maxwell Technologies gets new scrutiny in light of this brazen sidestepping of regulations.
Once you understand the details of this financing, it becomes clear that Tesla was truly desperate. While the structure was clever and allowed the company to raise much-needed cash, it paid a very high price.
The cash gives the company a few more quarters to try to turn things around, but given the abysmal first quarter and downward trends, I wouldn’t want to own this stock. Despite the ever-changing narratives, Tesla has never had a profitable year. I’m willing to bet they never will.Thanks for your contribution, Glenn!
Best regards,
Whitney
Wow—"Wheels within Wheels!"
interestingengineering.com/...
"Electric cars will be replacing gas powered cars, it is only a matter of time."But, according to an item in Insidevs that I read about here, BEV sales in the first four months of 2019 worldwide were no higher than sales in the same four months of 2018. | TSLA | 259.29 |
https://investorplace.com/2019/05/5-top-stock-trades-for-monday-mu-tsla-de-iq-bidu/ | 5 Top Stock Trades for Monday: TSLA, BIDU, IQ, DE, MU | We've been sounding the alarm bell on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) since long-time
range support near $245 to $250 gave way. It's been stuck in this nasty
downtrend... | May 17, 2019 | InvestorPlace | Stocks did a good job bouncing off their morning lows, but how long can bulls keep that action up? The market would do a whole lot better if investors didn’t have to worry about a tweet from the president sending a ripple through Chinese and U.S. trade negotiations, but that’s the market we have right now. Let’s look at some top stock trades to get started on next week.
Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #1: Baidu
Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) has one of the worst-looking charts out there among the names that I follow.
It made a really elongated wedge from 2015 to 2017. I was hoping the bulls would be able to keep the stock above the backside of this prior resistance mark, but so far, no cigar. Maybe they can salvage it next week, but it’s looking pretty awful.
Below all of its major weekly moving averages (and daily moving averages for that matter), as well as any meaningful support level and this one is simply a no-touch for traders. Shares are down more than 15% after reporting earnings.
Until we see some hints of a reversal (maybe near $115 to $120) or until BIDU can reclaim $130 and $140, this one is stuck in no man’s land for the time being.
Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #2: Tesla
We’ve been sounding the alarm bell on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) since long-time range support near $245 to $250 gave way. It’s been stuck in this nasty downtrend and is making new 52-week lows on Friday.
Do bulls make a stand next week, perhaps near $210? Maybe. Or we might continue to see a flush. Wait for the move first, then react. Reclaiming channel support gives investors a level to shoot against while aiming for a retest of channel resistance. See how it trades on Monday and Tuesday.
Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #3: iQiyi
Down more than 6% and it’s clear that the market doesn’t care about iQiyi’s (NASDAQ:IQ) strong user growth or revenue growth. Profits are missing and that’s worrying investors. It doesn’t help that IQ is a Chinese stock too.
The sign it was in trouble came once shares broke below $23, the gap-from level back in February. For those that needed an even more clear sign, the retest-and-fail earlier this month (purple arrow) showed that IQ’s time was up.
Below all of its major moving averages and with a trend pointed lower, IQ stock doesn’t look good. Maybe it bottoms near $18 to $18.50. If it breaks this mark, there could be a long way down. Keep in mind this stock was below $15 back in December. For anything sustainable to get going on the long side, it needs to get above its 20-day moving average.
Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #4: Deere
Down 7.25% on earnings and it’s a tough day for Deere (NYSE:DE) too. Shares broke below range support at $155, as well as the 50-week moving average near $150. Now near $136, and DE may actually be setting up as a solid risk/reward long.
Shares have only closed below $135 on a weekly basis once since December 2017. Should this level hold next week, it could be a good spot to nibble. There have been a few “shoots” below this mark — some to the upper-$120s, some just into the $134s — but by and large $135 has held. A close below could take DE to $125.
Ideally, we see DE shoot below $135 before reversing higher and closing above this week’s lows. Then we’ll have a more measurable setup.
Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #5: Micron
Last but not least, here’s a good lesson in Micron (NASDAQ:MU). Shares are down 3.3% on Friday and have been hammered these past few weeks. Remember at the beginning of the month, we flagged the warning signs here. In hindsight, I should have been even more cautious.
Shares were still OK despite that lower low (orange arrow) but then it notched a lower high as well. Once it broke $40.76 to the downside, that was the last-straw sign to bail. Now bouncing off $36, it’s been an ugly ride. If trapped bulls are lucky, they’ll get a bounce next week that they can unload into.
Otherwise, use this one as a lesson. When the trend bends, it’s no longer your friend.
Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. | TSLA | 259.29 |
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4264983-are-tesla-cars-crazy-expensive-to-insure | Are Tesla Cars Crazy Expensive To Insure? (NASDAQ:TSLA) | In response to questions about Tesla insurance costs, I compared Tesla
Models 3, S, and X to comparable offerings from BMW and Mercedes. · The
Tesla Model 3... | May 17, 2019 | Seeking Alpha | Are Tesla Cars Crazy Expensive To Insure?
Summary
- In response to questions about Tesla insurance costs, I compared Tesla Models 3, S, and X to comparable offerings from BMW and Mercedes.
- The Tesla Model 3 Performance is on average 8% more expensive to insure than a BMW M3, and 21% more than a MB C-Class 43 AMG.
- The Tesla Model S P100D is on average 10% more expensive to insure than a BMW M5, and 21% more than a MB E-Class 63 AMG-S.
- The Tesla Model X P100D is on average 16% more expensive to insure than a BMW X6 xDrive 5.0i and 20% more than a MB GLE 63 AMG-S.
- The Teslas in this test were on average 17% more expensive and 30% quicker than the competitors, which may impact the results slightly.
There has been much talk about Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) insurance prices of late, in response to the news about Tesla announcing an impending insurance offering. To address the speculation about relative Tesla insurance prices, I decided to do a comparison on the prices myself, using insurance comparison site insurify.com to generate quotes. The results speak for themselves.
Methodology
I selected 9 comparable vehicles (3 Teslas, 3 BMWs, and 3 Mercedes Benzes) and rated each of the 9 vehicles in 3 regions (Dallas, TX, San Mateo, CA, and Orlando, FL).
In each region, I received multiple insurance quotes:
- In FL 4-5 quotes per vehicle
- In CA, 8-9 quotes per vehicle
- In TX, 10-11 quotes per vehicle
For each region, I excluded carriers who didn't rate all vehicles, and selected the cheapest and median pricing for each vehicle+region. In CA, I excluded one carrier that wasn't available in TX or FL, and was around 50% cheaper than the next cheapest for all vehicles (in order to preserve regional comparability).
Driver & Vehicle Info and Coverage Levels
For all quotes, I used the same driver information:
- 45/M Single
- Employed, Homeowner
- Excellent credit, No tickets, No accidents
- Has prior coverage for 6 years
For all vehicles, I used the same profile:
- Used for commuting to work
- Driven 7,500 miles per year
- Owned outright
For all coverage levels, I selected:
- 50/100/50 liability
- 1,000 deductible for comprehensive and collision
- No towing or labor
- State minimum requirements for uninsured / underinsured coverage
- State minimum requirements for PIP / Medpay
Locations
I opted to generate quotes in 3 of the bigger insurance markets: TX, CA, and FL. Within those regions, I was looking for areas that would be typical of cars of this value. Within each region, I selected home addresses of around $750k-800k value (based on Zillow Zestimates), so as to attempt to obtain comparable location ratings between the regions.
The specific cities I used were:
- Dallas, TX
- Orlando, FL
- San Mateo, CA
Mid-size Sport Sedans
For this comparison, I decided to put the Model 3 Performance up against the BMW M3 and MB C43 AMG. All 3 vehicles are similar in price, and not terribly disparate in performance. I think this is probably the best comparison of the 3 categories, as the cars are very similar.
2018 Tesla Model 3 Performance
- Base Price: $59,500 (3% cheaper than competitors)
- 0-60: 3.5s (14% faster than competitors)
2018 BMW M3
- Base Price: $66,500
- 0-60: 3.9s
2018 Mercedes Benz C-Class 43 AMG
- Base Price: $56,245
- 0-60: 4.1s
Full-size Sport Sedans
For full-size sedans, I put the Model S P100D up against the BMW M5 and MB E63 AMG-S. These are all crazy-fast, crazy-expensive sedans, although the Tesla is faster and more expensive by a pretty hefty margin.
2018 Tesla Model S P100D
- Base Price: $135,000 (23% more expensive than competitors)
- 0-60: 2.5s (24% faster than competitors)
2018 BMW M5
- Base Price: $102,600
- 0-60: 3.2s
2018 Mercedes Benz E-Class 63 AMG-S
- Base Price: $104,400
- 0-60: 3.0s
Sport Crossover SUVs
For Crossover SUVs, I put the Model X P100D up against the X6 5.0 and the GLE63 AMG-S. The BMW in this category is pretty out-classed on both price and performance, which makes this a not-so-great comparison on insurance pricing. When looking at the Tesla vs the Mercedes, the Tesla is priced relatively favorably.
2018 Tesla Model X P100D
- Base Price: $138,000 (32% more expensive than competitors)
- 0-60: 2.9s (52% faster than competitors)
*2018 BMW X6 xDrive 5.0i
- Base Price: $77,700
- 0-60: 4.7s
2018 Mercedes Benz GLE-Class 63 AMG-S
- Base Price: $109,700
- 0-60: 4.1s
My Take
While not perfect, this test does give some indication of relative insurance prices for Tesla models as compared to similar vehicles from other brands.
The Tesla models used in this test were on average more expensive and higher-performance than their counterparts. It's probable that these factors impacted the premiums in some way.
Nevertheless, on average, Teslas do appear more expensive than their BMW (+10%) and MB (+20%) counterparts. However, this difference amounts to on average only $200 to $400 per year, when considering the cheapest options.
The take-away here is that while Tesla vehicles are more expensive than comparable ICEs, they aren't "crazy" prices, and in some cases are cheaper, when a given region has a carrier which has underpriced Tesla premiums relative to other carriers in the region.
Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long TSLA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (284)
It sounds like insurance at this time is not a serious impediment to buying a Tesla.
Whether fires change that, who knows?
Tesla will never start car insurance. That requires a big pile of cash to start with and Tesla is desperately short of cash and getting more so.
Disclosure: short Tesla via long term put options.
Great Subject!
I'm going to add another angle to the subject of insurance cost of FSD.
This is a subject that mystifies me and I HAVE NOT HEARD A SATISFACTION RESPONSE FROM AI OR NEURAL NETWORK EXPERTS.
Here's a thread giving your readers context; would love input.without consciousness can get round this.
Here's my question, that no neural netowork has been able to answer without technical jargon like;
If you knew anything about DNN, programmers define 'the architectural framework of the neural network ' Here's my question,
THE ULTIMATE PROBLEM : CODING A MORAL DILEMMA
Ultimately for any driver there are often moral decisions; so for FSD. those moral dilemmas you have to program as definitive code:
EXAMPLE
-does the FSD car miss the lil gal crossing the road carelessly, SWERVE
-AND crush into the law-abiding granny in her wheel chair on the kerbSound foolish. Sorry it's not. Human drivers make those decisions OFTEN in perilous situations!SO THE AI and PROGRAM HAS TO HAVE RULES to replace human MORAL DECISIONS!
It follows as a consequence!
I challenge ANY FSD FAN TO TELL ME HOW YOU ARE GOING TO PROGRAM THAT.
The program code has to EXPLICITLY make moral choices!!! @stvrob_63
'I understand what you are saying, but I've been driving 50 years and have never faced such a moral dilemma'Me:Well actually you have, even if it's been unconscious (instinctual) or deliberate (conscious), especially if you've ever been in an accident.The problem I see is that the FSD Neural Network does NOT have an innate consciousness - its just programmed to simulate consciousness for specific events.
BUT
you simply cant anticipate EVERY moral dilemma in advance and program it. So the DNN (Deep Neural Network) that is the framework of the FSD program is actually a black box! That you HOPE will produce the right answer in a new moral dilemma.i assure you i've asked some serious PhD programmers (in AI and Neural Networks) and they cannot answer this question without resorting to banalities like this (and my response)expert: "What programmers do for neural networks is to define the architectural level of the system."ME:And what are the premises that underline the architectural framework? THEY ARE RULE BASED ALGORITHMS THAT MAY/MAY NOT HAVE MULTIPLE PROBABILISTIC OUTCOMES. And those algorithms MUST - BY DEFINITION - simulate the decisions a HUMAN MAKES (even if you are simulating a super rational, calm-headed human cf the garden varietal homo-sapien halfwit). SO THE ARCHITECTURAL FRAMEWORK IS OBLIGED TO INCORPORATE AN UNDERLYING MORAL CODE. The 'architectural framework's' (you so elegantly hide under to avoid the moral dilemma) has to whizz through its digital synapses and produce an answer THAT is a MORAL DECISION. The heuristic rules IMPLICITLY have moral choices embedded within.that evade the question.I'm all ears to answers that makes sense.
@Stephen Fauer
'You may be correct that a moral choice is embedded within. But that is the problem, especially when it comes to liability. Because when there are victims, there will be liability claims, and the ability to defend a predetermined moral choice will be very problematic.'Me:
that is a secondary and significant problem: apart from 'what is the right choice', the FSD will have a hierarchy of algorithm-based rules on the juggle between human and material cost of the end decision; (eg does the car miss the lil gal, kill the granny stop having crashed into the tree behind her, hence write off the car
OR
hit the lil gal and minimal damage to car...)Once you've codified the car's decision making, you enter the realm of insurance liability!! The Insurer can ASSESS your FSD, in terms of the probably future cost of insuring you.It's a hornet's nest of problems, where in essence, EVEN if FSD could make the RIGHT moral choice, the insurer liability of THAT FSD system would have to be individually appraised for EACH FSD.Remember, first you have to codify for each subset of ALL potential outcomes; then the insurer has to assess it, in terms of how much premia to charge the driver....WAY AHEAD OF OUR LEGAL CODE WHERE SCIENCE (if FSD 'works) MAY HAVE LEAPT FAR BEYOND EXISTING LEGAL/MORAL THINKING.
Given that Tesla's FSD model is being trained from actual driver data is it fair to assume that the mean human response is to run into tractor trailers and parked firetrucks? How much more data do you figure it's going to take to figure those situations out? | TSLA | 259.29 |
https://newschannel9.com/sports/sports-headlines/soddy-daisy-high-school-lacrosse-team-plays-for-state-championship-friday | Soddy-Daisy High School lacrosse team plays for state ... | NOLENSVILLE, Tenn. — UPDATE: The Trojans take home the championship for the
TSLA Divison Two. They beat Murphreesboro 11 to 1. | May 17, 2019 | News Channel 9 | Sat, 24 Jun 2023 04:57:18 GMT (1687582638096)
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https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/tesla-video-games-unreal-unity-fortnite | Tesla to add more video games to cars, including 'Fortnite' engine | TSLA, TESLA INC. 259.46, -14.99, -5.46%. Tesla did not immediately respond
to a request for further comment. Epic Games, which owns the Unreal
engine,... | May 20, 2019 | Fox Business | Tesla to add more video games to cars, including 'Fortnite' engine
Tesla vehicles could soon be capable of running popular video games such as “Fortnite,” according to CEO Elon Musk.
Musk disclosed on Monday that Tesla is in the process of porting the Unreal and Unity video game engines for use in its electric cars. While Musk did not specify which video game titles could be available for play, “Fortnite,” the battle royal sensation with more than 200 million players, and "Rocket League" both run on the Unreal Engine.
“Interact with games via touchscreen, steering wheel buttons & Xbox [or PlayStation] controllers,” Musk wrote on Twitter, adding that he’d like to add a racing game “using actual car steeling wheel & pedals.”
The dashboard display is Tesla vehicles is already capable of running several classic Atari video games, including Asteroids and Centipede. Tesla first introduced in-vehicle gaming as part of a software update in 2018.
|Ticker||Security||Last||Change||Change %|
|TSLA||TESLA INC.||256.60||-8.01||-3.03%|
Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for further comment. Epic Games, which owns the Unreal engine, also could not be reached.
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Musk specifically referenced “Minecraft” and “Quake” as two video game franchises that he would like to make playable in Tesla vehicles. Asked about the possibility of “Mario Kart,” Musk said that “Nintendo won’t let us.” | TSLA | 259.29 |
https://www.investopedia.com/key-levels-for-tesla-stock-in-the-second-half-of-2019-4692411 | Key Levels for Tesla Stock in the Second Half of 2019 | (TSLA) shares closed the first half of 2019 at $222.59, which became a key
input to my proprietary analytics. The only level left over from the first
half is... | Jul 9, 2019 | Investopedia | Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) shares closed the first half of 2019 at $222.59, which became a key input to my proprietary analytics. The only level left over from the first half is its annual risky level at $388.02, which is just above the all-time intraday high of $387.48 set on Aug. 7, 2018, now considered a value level. The daily chart shows a "death cross," and the weekly chart has been positive since the week of June 28, when the stock closed at $222.59.
Fundamentally, Tesla stock is not a long-term investment, but you can counter-trade the volatility. The maker of the electric vehicles and electric vehicle powertrain components recently reported record quarterly deliveries but must accelerate to reach annual goals.
Tesla missed earnings estimates on April 24, and the stock responded by declining to its 52-week low of $176.99 on June 3. Since then, the stock is up a bull market 30.1%. Even so, the stock is also in bear market territory at 40.6% below its 52-week high of $387.48 set on Aug. 7, 2018. The year-to-date loss is 30.8%.
The daily chart for Tesla
The daily chart for Tesla shows that the stock has been below a "death cross" since Feb. 28, when the 50-day simple moving average fell below the 200-day simple moving average to indicate that lower prices lie ahead. The stock was a sell at its 200-day simple moving average that day at $316.36. This tracked the stock to its June 3 low of $176.99.
The third quarter value level is $213.05, with a value level for July at $209.53. Its semiannual risky level for the second half of 2019 is $278.76.
The weekly chart for Tesla
The weekly chart for Tesla is positive, with the stock above its five-week modified moving average of $225.35. The stock is well below its 200-week simple moving average, or "reversion to the mean," at $273.21. Tesla stock has been below its "reversion to the mean" since the week of April 19.
The 12 x 3 x 3 weekly slow stochastic reading is projected to rise to 39.09 this week, up from 32.13 on July 5. At the June 3 low, this reading was 8.95, with the level below 10.00 making the stock technically "too cheap to ignore."
Trading strategy: Buy Tesla shares weakness to the quarterly and monthly value levels at $213.03 and $209.53, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to the semiannual risky level at $278.76.
How to use my value levels and risky levels: Value levels and risky levels are based upon the last nine weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannual, and annual closes. The first set of levels was based upon the closes on Dec. 31. The original annual level remains in play. The weekly level changes each week. The monthly level was changed at the end of each month, most recently on June 28. The quarterly level was also changed at the end of June.
My theory is that nine years of volatility between closes are enough to assume that all possible bullish or bearish events for the stock are factored in. To capture share price volatility, investors should buy shares on weakness to a value level and reduce holdings on strength to a risky level. A pivot is a value level or risky level that was violated within its time horizon. Pivots act as magnets that have a high probability of being tested again before their time horizon expires.
How to use 12 x 3 x 3 weekly slow stochastic readings: My choice of using 12 x 3 x 3 weekly slow stochastic readings was based upon backtesting many methods of reading share-price momentum with the objective of finding the combination that resulted in the fewest false signals. I did this following the stock market crash of 1987, so I have been happy with the results for more than 30 years.
The stochastic reading covers the last 12 weeks of highs, lows, and closes for the stock. There is a raw calculation of the differences between the highest high and lowest low versus the closes. These levels are modified to a fast reading and a slow reading, and I found that the slow reading worked the best.
The stochastic reading scales between 00.00 and 100.00, with readings above 80.00 considered overbought and readings below 20.00 considered oversold. Recently, I noted that stocks tend to peak and decline 10% to 20% and more shortly after a reading rises above 90.00, so I call that an "inflating parabolic bubble," as a bubble always pops. I also refer to a reading below 10.00 as "too cheap to ignore."
Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. | TSLA | 259.29 |
https://www.barrons.com/articles/nio-stock-rebounding-electric-cars-china-tesla-51562707217 | Nio Stock Is Rebounding, but It Has a Long Climb Ahead | Through Tuesday's close at $3.69, shares of Nio (Ticker: NIO) were down
about 40% for the year, while Tesla (TSLA) had fallen roughly 30%—both
substantially... | Jul 10, 2019 | Barron's | Nio Stock Is Rebounding, but the Electric-Car Maker Has a Long Road Ahead
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https://www.barrons.com/articles/nio-stock-rebounding-electric-cars-china-tesla-51562707217 | TSLA | 259.29 |
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/07/09/tesla-isnt-planning-to-refresh-its-model-s-and-x.aspx | Tesla Isn't Planning to Refresh Its Model S and X | Should investors be concerned? While most of the attention regarding Tesla
(TSLA 1.81%) stock has recently been on the company's Model 3, Tesla's... | Jul 10, 2019 | The Motley Fool | While most of the attention regarding Tesla (TSLA -3.03%) stock has recently been on the company's Model 3, Tesla's older and pricier models are still critical to the company's success. Sure, the Model 3 now accounts for about 80% of the automaker's quarterly deliveries, but the Model S and X still have fatter margins, making them an important element in the company's ongoing expansion.
To help reinvigorate sales of the two vehicles after they pulled back sharply earlier this year, some investors have been hoping the automaker would release refreshed versions of the vehicles. But investors shouldn't get their hopes up. There currently aren't any plans for a refresh, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on Twitter this week.
What you see is what you get
When asked on Twitter on Monday when a Model X refresh is coming, Musk responded, saying, "There is no 'refreshed' Model X or Model S coming, only a series of minor ongoing changes." For the most part, therefore, what potential customers see today is what they get.
But Tesla will continue with its practice of continually updating its vehicles with beneath-the-surface changes that make its vehicles better over time. "[The] most significant change in [the] past few years was to use high efficiency Model 3 rear drive unit as S/X front drive unit," Musk continued in his tweet. "That went into production 3 months ago."
This contrasts with speculation in the hyperactive Tesla rumor mill about some major upcoming updates to the vehicles. Last summer, Electrek reported that Tesla was planning to overhaul the interior of the Model S and X, including a more spartan look and new display akin to the Model 3's interior. While interior changes are still possible, they might not be as significant as imagined. In addition, they may be introduced more gradually instead of all at once.
Of course, it's difficult to know what Musk considers a "refresh." Perhaps interior changes would qualify as part of "a series of minor ongoing changes." But with Musk explicitly warning that a major refresh isn't in the works, investors certainly shouldn't have high expectations for physical design changes in the near future.
Is a refresh really necessary?
While a meaningful refresh to the Model S and X vehicles' design would likely bolster demand for the cars, it's not yet clear whether demand for the two models is really suffering. Sure, combined Model S and X deliveries plummeted 56% sequentially in Q1. But this was at least partly expected; the automaker pushed as many deliveries as possible to the fourth quarter of 2018 so customers could tap into the full federal electric vehicle tax credit before it was cut in half. Further, sales of the two models have already picked up substantially. Tesla delivered 17,650 Model S and X combined in Q2, up from about 12,000 in Q1.
To be fair, second-quarter Model S and X deliveries were still down 21% year over year. But it may not be until Tesla's first-quarter slump is several quarters in the rearview mirror before investors see whether the period was more of a one-time whiff or indicative of declining demand for the two models.
Nevertheless, Tesla will still need to at least keep up its method of constantly improving its vehicles with a series of smaller changes that -- hopefully -- add up to big enough changes to keep Model S and X deliveries from falling further. | TSLA | 259.29 |
https://www.trefis.com/stock/ge/articles/468464/ges-growth-over-coming-years-will-depend-primarily-on-the-success-of-its-aviation-business/2019-07-09 | GE's Growth Over Coming Years Will Depend Primarily On ... | Better Bet Than GE Stock: Pay Less Than General Electric To Get More From
Stocks TSLA, V, META, JNJ, UNH · What to expect for General Electric
stock,... | Jul 9, 2019 | Trefis | GE’s Growth Over Coming Years Will Depend Primarily On The Success Of Its Aviation Business
General Electric (NYSE: GE) has struggled to turn around its business over the last few years. With an eye on long-term profitability, the company’s focus over coming years will be on its Aviation, Power and Renewable Energy divisions. GE’s Aviation division in particular will remain key to its success over coming years – primarily because it is responsible for roughly 25% of the company’s revenues, and almost 45% of its operating profit. Trefis highlights this in the interactive dashboard Importance Of Aviation Division For GE. You can adjust various drivers to see the impact on the segment’s earnings and its contribution to the company, and see more Trefis Industrial company data here.
What Are General Electric’s Major Sources Of Revenues?
- Aviation: $29.7 billion in FY 2018 (24% of Total Revenues). Aviation generates its revenues by designing and producing commercial and military aircraft engines, integrated digital components, electric power and mechanical aircraft systems.
- Power: $26.5 billion in FY 2018 (22% of Total Revenues). This segment generates revenues by generating power for industrial, government and other customers worldwide with products and services related to energy production and water reuse.
- Oil & Gas: $22.2 billion in FY 2018 (18% of Total Revenues). GE holds 50.4% consolidated interest in Bakers Hughes, a full stream oilfield technology provider that generates its revenues through four main business segments: Oilfield Services, Oilfield Equipment, Turbomachinery & Processing Solutions and Digital Solutions.
- Healthcare: $19.2 billion in FY 2018 (16% of Total Revenues). Healthcare derives its revenues by providing essential healthcare technologies to developed and emerging markets and has expertise in medical imaging, patient monitoring and diagnostics, drug discovery, bio-pharmaceutical manufacturing technologies and performance improvement solutions.
- Renewable Energy: $9.3 billion in FY 2018 (8% of Total Revenues). This segment generates revenues by providing affordable renewable energy to people across the world
- GE Capital: $9.3 billion in FY 2018 (8% of Total Revenues). GE Capital generates revenues by providing financial products and services to GE’s all other business segments.
- Transportation: $3.8 billion in FY 2018 (3% of Total Revenues). This segment generates revenues by supplying transport related equipment to the railroad, mining, marine, stationary power and drilling industries.
- Lightning: $1.7 billion in FY 2018 (1% of Total Revenues). This segment includes GE Lightning business which generates its revenues by providing energy efficiency and productivity solutions for commercial, industrial and municipal customers
How Has The Aviation Division Fared Over Recent Years?
- Segment revenues grew at a CAGR of 7% over the last 3 years.
- Revenues of $29.7 billion in 2018 implied a 13.6% y-o-y growth, and accounted for nearly 25% of the total revenue mix.
- While the company’s other segments have struggled, Aviation’s pre-tax profit surged 20% year-over-over to $6.4 billion in 2018, accounting for more than 60% of the company’s industrial segment pre-tax profit.
- Moreover, the segment’s demand remained strong as evident from its 2018 order intake of $35.5 billion, which boosted its backlog 12% to $224 billion
- Is General Electric Stock A Better Pick Over Its Sector Peer?
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- Pick Either General Electric Stock Or Its Sector Peer – Both May Offer Similar Returns
What’s Driving This Growth?
- Global passenger air travel has grown strongly over the years. In 2018, revenue passenger miles (RPM) growth outpaced the ten-year average – increasing 6.6% with strong growth both domestically and internationally. In addition, passenger load factors globally remained above 80%.
- This has led to boosted the demand for new aircrafts globally.
- Moreover, higher commercial spares shipment rate and increased price aided revenue growth for GE.
- LEAP engines have been the largest growth driver for the company’s Aviation division. LEAP engine has continued to perform well, with GE having a better win rate over its competitors primarily due to its improved pricing.
- GE has been able to reduce its cost of the LEAP engines by more than 40% over the last two years, thus providing an edge to the company over its competitors.
What To Expect In The Near Term?
- We forecast GE’s Aviation revenues to grow around 4% in 2019 to $31 billion. This growth is likely to be driven by healthy growth in air travel globally, improved global defense spending as well as increased shipments of the more efficient and cost-effective LEAP engines.
- Furthermore, GE sees huge growth opportunities in its military aviation business. Although, military spending tends to be cyclical, the company expects conditions to be upbeat over coming years and expects its military business revenue to roughly double by 2025.
- With ample order backlog and continued efficiency of its LEAP engine, the segment margin is also expected to expand and boost profitability.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-09/bmw-takes-on-vw-and-tesla-with-36-400-electric-mini-cooper | BMW Takes on VW and Tesla With $36400 Electric Mini Cooper | TSLA. TESLA INC. 258.46. USD. -15.99-5.83% · EUR. Euro Spot. 1.0973. EUR.
+0.0055+0.5038%. Open. BMW AG's first electric Mini will hit the streets by
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-19/ex-tesla-energy-engineer-wants-to-change-your-electrical-panel | Ex-Tesla Energy Engineer Wants to Change Your Electrical ... | TSLA. TESLA INC. 274.45. USD. +13.91+5.34% · 1801157D. SPAN.IO INC. Private
Company. A former Tesla Inc. engineer who helped develop the electric-car... | Sep 19, 2019 | Bloomberg.com | To continue, please click the box below to let us know you're not a robot.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-19/bezos-s-big-van-order-signals-amazon-backed-rivian-is-for-real | Bezos's Big Van Order Signals Amazon-Backed Rivian Is 'For ... | TSLA. TESLA INC. 259.46. USD. -14.99-5.46% · IT. GARTNER INC. 350.45. USD.
-2.91-0.82%. Open. If investments from Amazon.com Inc. and Ford Motor Co.
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https://www.fijitimes.com/tesla-takes-on-porsche-with-battle-on-germanys-toughest-circuit/ | Tesla takes on Porsche with battle on Germany's toughest circuit | FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Tesla TSLA wants to steal Porsche's bragging rights
by testing its Model S on the northern loop of Germany's Nuerburgring
circuit,... | Sep 19, 2019 | The Fiji Times | Tesla takes on Porsche with battle on Germany’s toughest circuit
19 September, 2019, 10:29 am
FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Tesla TSLA wants to steal Porsche’s bragging rights by testing its Model S on the northern loop of Germany’s Nuerburgring circuit, using a marketing tool that German carmakers have long used to tout the superiority of their products.
Germany’s Auto Motor und Sport this week published photographs of a Tesla with “100D+” markings on the track where according to the magazine, it clocked an unofficial time of 7 minutes and 23 seconds, beating the recently launched electric Porsche Taycan’s lap time of 7 minutes 42 seconds.
A formally timed record attempt was due to take place on Wednesday, with another attempt scheduled for Saturday, Auto Motor und Sport said.
Tesla is using the Nordschleife, as the track is known, to market its “Plaid” mode on a 7-seater Tesla Model S, CEO Elon Musk confirmed on Twitter.
“We expect these track times to be beaten by the actual production 7 seat Model S Plaid variant that goes into production around Oct/Nov next year,” Musk said on Tuesday.
Setting a new record time for four-door electric cars would give the U.S.-based manufacturer’s ageing Model S a new lease of life just as Audi, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Porsche prepare to launch electric cars.
The Nordschleife is one of the world’s most treacherous thanks to its length of just over 20 km (12.5 miles), slanted cambers and an altitude difference of 300 meters (yards) between its highest and lowest point.
Porsche says its 919 Evo hybrid racecar currently holds the record with a lap time of 5 minutes 19 seconds, set in 2018 by keeping up an average speed of 234 km (146.3 miles) an hour, despite blind corners, narrow bends and limited safety run-off zones.
Porsche, BMW, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Cadillac and Aston Martin have used the racetrack as a boot camp to hone reliability and handling and to benchmark their vehicles against top competitors.
“If you take the same corner, on the same road, at the same speed, in two different cars, you can see how your car measures up to the competition,” said driver Dirk Schoysman, who set a Nordschleife lap record in 1996 in a Nissan Skyline with a time of 7 minutes 59 seconds.
For Nissan, the new record underscored the Skyline R33 GT-R’s global status as a serious sportscar, proving that Japanese brands could be as competitive as vehicles made by Germany’s finest manufacturers.
The circuit opened in June 1927 to become an important battleground where legendary drivers like Tazio Nuvolari and Juan Manuel Fangio drove some of their most memorable races.
In 1935 senior Nazi officials gathered at the German Grand Prix ready to cheer the home team, only to see Italy’s Nuvolari beat the Mercedes-Benz W25 and the Auto Union Typ B in an Alfa Romeo Tipo B P3.
The track remained a venue for Grand Prix races until 1976 when a horrendous crash almost killed driving ace Niki Lauda, leading to the opening of a shorter, wider Nuerburgring track with improved facilities in May 1984.
But carmakers have continued to use the older circuit’s 40 right-hand and 33 left-hand turns through the Eifel region’s forested hills to develop their regular vehicles.
“Cars cannot keep secrets here, mistakes and problems will eventually rise to the surface,” Schoysman said.
At the Hatzenbach corner, cars enter a dip forcing them over a series of undulations with their suspension compressed, testing the chassis to the limit.
“If the car changes its line in that corner it may be a tire flexing, the suspension bushes that have gone through their stroke, or a problem with the stiffness of the car body, or its electronic stability program,” Schoysman explained.
These development tweaks continue to be relevant for electric cars as well as for marketing purposes.
Understanding the circumstances of the test lap will be crucial for evaluating Tesla’s achievement, Schoysman said.
“Getting a new lap record shows the know-how of the company but there are always questions: Are the cars realistic copies of what the customer finds in a showroom? Or were they modified?” | TSLA | 259.29 |
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amazon-environment-rivian-idUSKBN1W42JA | Electric vehicle startup Rivian gets a jolt from big Amazon.com ... | Rivian, a potential rival to Silicon Valley's Tesla IncTSLA.O, unveiled its
electric R1T pickup and R1S SUV last November, but had piqued Amazon's
interest... | Sep 19, 2019 | Reuters | DETROIT (Reuters) - Electric vehicle startup Rivian Automotive LLC got a big boost from one of its investors on Thursday when Amazon.com announced it was ordering 100,000 electric delivery vans.
Before Rivian has even begun commercial production at its factory in Normal, Illinois, the Amazon order rocketed it to the forefront of electric vehicle makers.
Amazon AMZN.O Chief Executive Jeff Bezos said in Washington that as part of the online retailer's plan to be carbon neutral by 2040 it would order the electric vans from Rivian, with deliveries starting in 2021. The goal is to deploy all the vehicles by 2024.
Rivian, a potential rival to Silicon Valley's Tesla IncTSLA.O, unveiled its electric R1T pickup and R1S SUV last November, but had piqued Amazon's interest earlier. Bezos personally reached out to Rivian CEO R.J. Scaringe last summer to express interest in an investment, sources previously said.
Plymouth, Michigan-based Rivian, founded in 2009, has raised close to $1.9 billion from investors, including a $700 million February round led by Amazon.
The deal solidifies Rivian’s place among EV builders, said Sam Fiorani, a vice president with Auto Forecast Solutions. “It helps boost the image of the (Rivian) brand,” he said.
Rivian aspires to be the first to produce a mass market electric pickup. It intends to begin selling its R1T by the end of 2020, a target that has not changed with the Amazon deal in place, said Rivian spokeswoman Amy Mast said.
Traditional U.S. automakers Ford Motor CoF.N, a Rivian investor, and General Motors CoGM.N, as well as Tesla, are pushing to develop their own electric pickups.
The Amazon vans, under the exclusive deal, will be built at Rivian’s plant, a former Mitsubishi factory in Normal, Illinois, Mast said. The first vehicles will be delivered in 2021 and 10,000 should be on the road by late 2022, she said. The vehicles will be serviced by Rivian.
Scaringe has described the Rivian vehicle’s platform as a skateboard that packages the drive units, battery pack, suspension system, brakes and cooling system all below wheel height to allow for more storage space and greater stability due to a lower center of gravity.
Amazon is looking to speed packages to shoppers' doorsteps regardless of spikes in consumer demand or shortages of delivery personnel. Last year, Daimler AG'sDAIGn.DE Mercedes-Benz said Amazon had become the biggest customer of its Sprinter vans, securing 20,000 vehicles for delivery contractors.
Ford invested $500 million in Rivian in April with plans to use the Rivian EV platform to build a new vehicle in North America. Details of that vehicle were not disclosed. Ford is not involved in the Rivian deal, Mast said.
Cox Automotive Inc, the owner of the Autotrader online automobile market and the Kelley Blue Book car valuation service, invested $350 million in Rivian this month. The companies will explore partnerships in digital retailing, service operations and logistics.
Other backers include Saudi auto distributor Abdul Latif Jameel Co, Sumitomo Corp of Americas and Standard Chartered Bank.
Amazon’s reputation and the contract size would raise Rivian’s status with potential customers and investors, Fiorani said. It also offers the advantage of not having to chase buyers or ship vehicles all over the country.
Reporting by Ben Klayman in Detroit; Editing by David Gregorio
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. | TSLA | 259.29 |
https://www.autoblog.com/2019/09/19/porsche-taycan-laps-tesla-model-s-nurburgring-video/ | Watch a Porsche Taycan lapping a Tesla Model S prototype on the Nurburgring | Taycan literally lapping broken down Model S$tsla
pic.twitter.com/eLX9WRQuSz. — EV Defender (@evdefender) September 19, 2019.
A couple of weeks ago,... | Sep 19, 2019 | Autoblog | - Related/Update: Tesla goes home, pushes record attempt to October
With the Porsche Taycan about to compete with Tesla in the marketplace, Elon Musk has decided to compete with Zuffenhausen’s finest on the track. After a Taycan Turbo set a record for fastest EV around the Nürburgring Nordschleife in just 7 minutes and 42 seconds, Tesla is scrambling to best that with modified Model S P100D prototypes that Musk says will eventually become a production model. A Ring record attempt could come any day from Tesla — but not today, when Nürburgring videographers caught the Taycan lapping the Model S not once, but twice as the Tesla sat broken down awaiting a tow:
Taycan literally lapping broken down Model S$tsla pic.twitter.com/eLX9WRQuSz— EV Defender (@evdefender) September 19, 2019
A couple of weeks ago, Musk promised a Model S would be at the Nürburgring after claiming that a Model S prototype beat the record for a four-door sedan at Laguna Seca. Though a track spokesperson pointed out that Tesla's run wasn't a record because nobody was officiating.
Model S prototypes nicknamed Plaid are also in Germany, with decidedly non-production aggressive body work, more power, and sticky Michelin Pilot Sport Cup 2 R competition tires. One of our spy photographers also noted that the car has been stripped of its interior except for the driver's seat. The spies tracked a Tesla in practice at the Nürburgring. and calculated it could undercut the Taycan by almost 20 seconds. That said, Porsche set the Ring record in a Taycan Turbo, not a Turbo S, so there's still an arrow in its quiver.
The breakdown contrasts with Porsche's stated goal for the Taycan: repeatable high performance, demonstrated recently when an automotive journalist put the EV through dozens of sprints to 124 mph.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-06/the-chinese-factory-that-could-make-or-break-elon-musk-s-vision | Elon Musk’s Vision May Be Made or Broken by This Chinese ... | In this article ; TSLA. TESLA INC. 270.79 ; BMW. BMW AG. 110.52 ; 1958.
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https://marketrealist.com/2019/11/tesla-musk-pull-off-electric-pickup-truck/ | Can Tesla and Musk Pull Off an Electric Pickup Truck? | Yesterday in a tweet, Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk announced the unveiling of
Tesla's electric pickup truck. He said, “Cybertruck unveil on Nov 21 in LA
near... | Nov 7, 2019 | Market Realist | Can Tesla and Musk Pull Off an Electric Pickup Truck?
Yesterday in a tweet, Elon Musk announced the unveiling of Tesla’s electric pickup truck. But will he keep his promise this time?
Yesterday in a tweet, Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk announced the unveiling of Tesla’s electric pickup truck. He said, “Cybertruck unveil on Nov 21 in LA near SpaceX rocket factory.”
This time, it seems like Musk is going to keep his promise. But the unveiling date for the vehicle has moved around several times in the past. In September, Musk hinted that the vehicle would be revealed this month. So what can investors expect from the reveal?
Tesla’s electric pickup truck
Tesla’s electric pickup truck has been one of the most polarizing vehicles in recent history. Through tweets and teaser images, Elon Musk has also left no stone unturned to build up the hype around the truck.
Musk is comparing the vehicle to an armored personnel carrier. The company also shared a teaser image for the vehicle in March 2019, which only led to more speculations about the truck’s looks.
The US pickup truck and SUV market
The pickup truck and SUV market is currently one of the most lucrative segments in the US auto sector, which is otherwise going through a slowdown phase. Currently, General Motor (GM), Fiat Chrysler (FCAU), and Ford (F) are battling it out in this segment.
All three players have also resorted to limited price wars to increase their market shares in this segment. Check out F, GM, FCAU: Who’s Winning the US Truck Sales Race? for more detail on the big three companies’ rivalry in this space.
Increasing competition in the pickup truck market
As Tesla—and Amazon- (AMZN) and Ford-backed startup Rivian—are ramping up the competition in the electric pickup truck space, legacy automakers don’t want to be left behind. Elon Musk has suggested that Tesla’s pickup truck would be better than Ford’s F-150 and standard Porsche 911.
With deep-pocketed investors like Amazon, Rivian is also expected to put up significant competition in this space. See New Rivian Investment: Could It Be the Real Tesla Killer? for more analysis.
GM and Ford to launch electric versions of their trucks, too
GM and Ford have been trying to ramp up their EV presence as well, especially in the SUV and truck segments. Ford, for example, is in the process of launching an electric version of its best-selling F-150 in 2021.
Regarding GM’s plans, Reuters reported that GM is planning its BT1 (battery electric 1) electric truck and SUV program at the planned investment of nearly $3 billion.
Take a look at Electric Pickup Trucks: Could Ford and GM Outdo Tesla? We discussed in detail how legacy automakers are planning to compete with the EV pioneer, Tesla, in this space.
Cybertruck features
Tesla’s electric pickup truck is expected to cost around $50,000 and come with a range of 400–500 miles. The truck’s towing capacity is expected to be around 300,000 pounds.
The other features of Tesla’s pickup truck that Musk has hinted at in tweets include heavy-duty power outlets, dual-motor all-wheel drive, dynamics suspension, and high-power tools.
Musk affirms the polarizing status of the pickup truck
As Electrek explains, Musk talked about Tesla’s pickup truck during the Air Force Space Pitch Day on November 5. He referred to the truck as “Cybertruck,” and he also affirmed the polarizing status of the vehicle, saying, “You might want to try it. You might like it or might not.”
This stance is in line with Musk’s previous comments. During an interview with Recode, as Electrek reported, he mentioned that if only a small section of the consumers like the truck, the company can make a more conventional truck in the future. That approach, however, is easier said than done.
The end consumer market for Tesla’s pickup truck
What’s even more doubtful is the reaction of the end consumer market to Tesla’s pickup truck. Pickup trucks are mostly used in the US for practical purposes, including carrying heavy loads and towing for farmers and contractors. Tesla’s sci-fi features and looks might be the last thing on these consumers’ minds.
Due to this difference in opinion among the target segment, Tesla’s pickup truck could be the company’s most polarizing vehicle yet. Take a look at Tesla’s Electric Pickup Truck Demand: Is Musk Skeptical? for Musk’s opinion on this topic.
Could Tesla’s Cybertruck really dominate?
Investors have yet to see what the final product will look like. We’ll get a glimpse of the vehicle on November 21. If, however, the company isn’t able to pull off an electric truck in this target segment, its next vehicle could be a totally different and more time-consuming endeavor.
Plus, if the initial design doesn’t go over well with potential customers, earlier launches could take up Tesla’s market share. Rivian, for example, is aiming to launch its electric pickup truck in late 2020.
Tesla has a lot of experience in the EV space and can dominate the electric pickup truck market. However, the company’s execution of its project timeline—and the market reaction—will have a lot to do with the vehicle’s final demand.
Meanwhile, Tesla has impressed markets with its surprise profitability and expedited project timelines during its Q3 results. Its China Gigafactory and Model Y are both expected to come online earlier than expected. Due to the impressive results and outlook, TSLA stock has erased its year-to-date losses. As of yesterday’s market closing, Tesla stock has gained 1.8% year-to-date, versus a loss of about 24% before its earnings results on October 23. | TSLA | 259.29 |
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-08/-28-000-electric-suv-to-lead-china-s-charge-into-european-market | An Electric SUV Will Lead China's Charge Into Europe | TSLA. TESLA INC. 259.46. USD. -14.99-5.46%. Open. A roughly $39,000 sport
utility vehicle looks set to become the first Chinese entrant in Europe's... | Nov 8, 2019 | Bloomberg.com | To continue, please click the box below to let us know you're not a robot.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-21/tesla-truck-s-tall-order-luring-away-detroit-s-loyal-owners | Tesla Cybertruck: Can Elon Musk Lure Loyal Detroit Brand ... | TSLA. TESLA INC. 259.46. USD ; GM. GENERAL MOTORS C · 37.01. USD ; 7203.
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https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-first-look-at-teslas-cyberpunk-pickup-truck-heres-what-it-can-do-51574399714 | Elon Musk’s Tesla Launches Pickup Truck. What You Need to Know. | Pickup trucks, after all, represent a divergence from Tesla's (ticker:
TSLA) core luxury-car market. And Americans love trucks. There are more
pickups sold... | Nov 22, 2019 | Barron's | Tesla Revealed Its ‘Cyberpunk’ Pickup Truck. What You Need to Know.
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https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-first-look-at-teslas-cyberpunk-pickup-truck-heres-what-it-can-do-51574399714 | TSLA | 259.29 |
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