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long_en_47
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en
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Or as the ballet dancer Alonzo King said, "What's interesting about you is you." For the true selves of companies to come through, openness is paramount, but radical openness is not a solution, because when everything is open, nothing is open. "A smile is a door that is half open and half closed," the author Jennifer Egan wrote. Companies can give their employees and customers more control or less. They can worry about how much openness is good for them, and what needs to stay closed. Or they can simply smile, and remain open to all possibilities. Thank you.
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Or as the ballet dancer Alonzo King said, "What's interesting about you is you." For the true selves of companies to come through, openness is paramount, but radical openness is not a solution, because when everything is open, nothing is open. "A smile is a door that is half open and half closed," the author Jennifer Egan wrote. Companies can give their employees and customers more control or less. They can worry about how much openness is good for them, and what needs to stay closed. Or they can simply smile, and remain open to all possibilities. Thank you.
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long_en_17
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talk_en
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He did not know how long he would wait. The wait could have been a minute. The executioner could have come the next day. Or it could have taken 30 years. The wait had no end. And in the midst of the excruciating pain, the mental torture, the many unanswered questions, he knew he was not. He refused to play the role of the victim. He was angry at the justice system. But he knew the only way, or help other people get justice was not to play the victim. Change came to Manson for those who had put him in prison. I speak that as a fact.
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He did not know how long he would wait. The wait could have been a minute. The executioner could have come the next day. Or it could have taken thirty years. The wait had no end. And in the midst of the excruciating pain, the mental torture, the many unanswered questions, he knew he was not. He refused to play the role of the victim. He was angry at the justice system. But he knew the only way, or help other people get justice was not to play the victim. Change came to Manson for those who had put him in prison. I speak that as a fact.
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long_en_16
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And this lesson is not reserved. Things like questioning and critical thinking are things that any student or background or language or income. Also, deliberate avoidance speaks volumes to our students because kids notice when their teachers leave out the voices and experiences. Silence speaks volumes. I recently asked my class of third-graders what they would say to adults to learn about issues of equity. And while this is a small sample, all of them agreed that not only are they capable, but they view it, the right to learn it. And, in their words: "We're big enough because these problems." And we have the right to talk about them because it will be our life. Thank you.
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And this lesson is not reserved. Things like questioning and critical thinking are things that any student or background or language or income. Also, deliberate avoidance speaks volumes to our students because kids notice when their teachers leave out the voices and experiences. Silence speaks volumes. I recently asked my class of third-graders what they would say to adults to learn about issues of equity. And while this is a small sample, all of them agreed that not only are they capable, but they view it, the right to learn it. And, in their words: "We're big enough because these problems." And we have the right to talk about them because it will be our life. Thank you.
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long_en_55
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By 2015, that sidestep was so successful that we actually incorporated, and I started hiring other working moms that had left the traditional workforce. This group of powerful women effectively doubled our business 100 percent by word of mouth, till ultimately, we were acquired in 2018 by the largest media brand. And we were able to do this like Gen Z is expecting, we blended synchronous. We found clarity through transparency. Our work style and culture and some left us because of it. But those retained and actually helped us build. And finally, we stayed open to new ideas, even when it didn't match. So what I'm most proud of is although this was developed it grew to include an empty nester, it also grew to include and even a veteran, shifting its career. We've proved success but success for the business. So I'll leave you with this. Work, as we know it, is broken. Gen Z can help us fix it. But it will take all of us. Thank you.
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By two thousand fifteen, that sidestep was so successful that we actually incorporated, and I started hiring other working moms that had left the traditional workforce. This group of powerful women effectively doubled our business one hundred percent by word of mouth, till ultimately, we were acquired in two thousand eighteen by the largest media brand. And we were able to do this like Gen Z is expecting, we blended synchronous. We found clarity through transparency. Our work style and culture and some left us because of it. But those retained and actually helped us build. And finally, we stayed open to new ideas, even when it didn't match. So what I'm most proud of is although this was developed it grew to include an empty nester, it also grew to include and even a veteran, shifting its career. We've proved success but success for the business. So I'll leave you with this. Work, as we know it, is broken. Gen Z can help us fix it. But it will take all of us. Thank you.
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long_en_25
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Now, I haven't met most of you but I feel a really good vibe in the room. And so I think I'd like. What do you think? Yes? Great, so many new friends. So we're going to go to this cafe. They serve sandwiches. And the sandwiches are really delicious. But I have to tell you that sometimes. And we don't know why. Because the cafe won't tell us. They won't tell us about the ingredients. And then the authorities. But the offer still stands. So who wants to get a sandwich? Some brave souls. We can talk after. But for the rest of you, I understand. You don't have enough information to make good choices about your safety or even fix the issue. Now, before I further the anxiety here, but this is an analogy to how we're also known as artificial. Now, for those who haven't thought between AI and sandwiches. I'm here for you. I'm going to explain. You see, AI systems. They feed us, but they're also inconsistently. And we don't have access. And so we can't actually.
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Now, I haven't met most of you but I feel a really good vibe in the room. And so I think I'd like. What do you think? Yes? Great, so many new friends. So we're going to go to this cafe. They serve sandwiches. And the sandwiches are really delicious. But I have to tell you that sometimes. And we don't know why. Because the cafe won't tell us. They won't tell us about the ingredients. And then the authorities. But the offer still stands. So who wants to get a sandwich? Some brave souls. We can talk after. But for the rest of you, I understand. You don't have enough information to make good choices about your safety or even fix the issue. Now, before I further the anxiety here, but this is an analogy to how we're also known as artificial. Now, for those who haven't thought between AI and sandwiches. I'm here for you. I'm going to explain. You see, AI systems. They feed us, but they're also inconsistently. And we don't have access. And so we can't actually.
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long_en_22
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A few years ago, I was taking care of a woman. I wanted her to be seen in a clinic. I made the appointment myself, because, I knew if I did it, she would get an appointment right away. The clinic was about an hour and a half. But she took down the address. Unfortunately, she didn't. When I spoke to the psychiatrist. That trauma survivors are often resistant to dealing with the difficult and often miss appointments. For this reason, they don't generally allow the doctors. They had made a special exception for me. When I spoke to my patient, she had a much simpler of why she didn't go to that appointment: her ride didn't show.
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A few years ago, I was taking care of a woman. I wanted her to be seen in a clinic. I made the appointment myself, because, I knew if I did it, she would get an appointment right away. The clinic was about an hour and a half. But she took down the address. Unfortunately, she didn't. When I spoke to the psychiatrist. That trauma survivors are often resistant to dealing with the difficult and often miss appointments. For this reason, they don't generally allow the doctors. They had made a special exception for me. When I spoke to my patient, she had a much simpler of why she didn't go to that appointment: her ride didn't show.
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long_en_19
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But last year we did just five, and the year before that, we did five. So, let's just take. The United Nations Intergovernmental has looked at the carbon content and nuclear comes out really low --. And nuclear obviously 24 hours a day, seven days a week. During a year, a single plant can provide. What's interesting is that that have deployed different. There's only a few that have done so at a pace consistent with dealing. So nuclear seems like.
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But last year we did just five, and the year before that, we did five. So, let's just take. The United Nations Intergovernmental has looked at the carbon content and nuclear comes out really low --. And nuclear obviously twenty four hours a day, seven days a week. During a year, a single plant can provide. What's interesting is that that have deployed different. There's only a few that have done so at a pace consistent with dealing. So nuclear seems like.
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long_en_39
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talk_en
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We need to make the climate crisis change our habits a bit as a result. Secondly, we need to get angry. And thirdly, we need to imagine. ZK: Every year I can see more focus that are needed. LT: Renewable energy. HM: There is a strong. It makes investment sense. HL: China is adding an astonishing amount. RN: It's cheaper to build than it is to put fuel. TB: Our job has to be to make sure that politicians know that they're going for the hard policies. LN: We need people to get on board. And this means getting people on board that have never spoken and that have always disagreed. MB: Even at this conference, and you expect them to have. But when you actually you see the openings. CA: I love listening to people. Dialogue is absolutely essential. But once we leave the safe space we go back out into a world and institutionalized. And we have to just acknowledge that fact. RN: So I think it's not and then apply your own judgment. And is it self-serving or not, and what nuggets of truth. MB: What we don't want to lose is that ultimately there are people. And systems change will sometimes fail just because two folks. Jade Begay: I think we overlook as kind of cheesy or corny, but ask any person and it happens through relationships. MR: I was very affected, when Jade said, "In our tribe in New Mexico, we say, 'What if our best times. Our best times are still ahead of us. But so are our worst times. We have that choice. And of course, we have and we have to know how difficult it is. And yet, Nelson Mandela famously said "it always seems impossible. And I love that phrase.
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We need to make the climate crisis change our habits a bit as a result. Secondly, we need to get angry. And thirdly, we need to imagine. ZK: Every year I can see more focus that are needed. LT: Renewable energy. HM: There is a strong. It makes investment sense. HL: China is adding an astonishing amount. RN: It's cheaper to build than it is to put fuel. TB: Our job has to be to make sure that politicians know that they're going for the hard policies. LN: We need people to get on board. And this means getting people on board that have never spoken and that have always disagreed. MB: Even at this conference, and you expect them to have. But when you actually you see the openings. CA: I love listening to people. Dialogue is absolutely essential. But once we leave the safe space we go back out into a world and institutionalized. And we have to just acknowledge that fact. RN: So I think it's not and then apply your own judgment. And is it self-serving or not, and what nuggets of truth. MB: What we don't want to lose is that ultimately there are people. And systems change will sometimes fail just because two folks. Jade Begay: I think we overlook as kind of cheesy or corny, but ask any person and it happens through relationships. MR: I was very affected, when Jade said, "In our tribe in New Mexico, we say, 'What if our best times. Our best times are still ahead of us. But so are our worst times. We have that choice. And of course, we have and we have to know how difficult it is. And yet, Nelson Mandela famously said "it always seems impossible. And I love that phrase."
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long_en_33
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talk_en
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And this pressure forces the seawater through a membrane. This takes energy, producing clean water. But we're also left with a concentrated salt solution, or brine. But the process is very expensive. And it's cost-prohibitive for many countries around the globe. And also, the brine that's produced is oftentimes just pumped back out into the sea. And this is detrimental to the local ecology of the sea area that it's pumped back out into. So I work in Singapore at the moment, and this is a place that's really a leading place for desalination technology. And Singapore proposes by 2060 to produce [900] million liters per day of desalinated water. But this will produce an equally massive amount of desalination brine. And this is where my collaboration with bacteria comes into play. So what we're doing at the moment is we're accumulating metals like calcium, potassium and magnesium from out of desalination brine. And this, in terms of magnesium and the amount of water that I just mentioned, equates to a $4.5 billion mining industry for Singapore -- a place that doesn't have any natural resources. So I'd like you to image a mining industry in a way that one hasn't existed before; imagine a mining industry that doesn't mean defiling the Earth; imagine bacteria helping us do this by accumulating and precipitating and sedimenting minerals out of desalination brine. And what you can see here is the beginning of an industry in a test tube, a mining industry that is in harmony with nature. Thank you.
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And this pressure forces the seawater through a membrane. This takes energy, producing clean water. But we're also left with a concentrated salt solution, or brine. But the process is very expensive. And it's cost-prohibitive for many countries around the globe. And also, the brine that's produced is oftentimes just pumped back out into the sea. And this is detrimental to the local ecology of the sea area that it's pumped back out into. So I work in Singapore at the moment, and this is a place that's really a leading place for desalination technology. And Singapore proposes by two thousand sixty to produce [nine hundred] million liters per day of desalinated water. But this will produce an equally massive amount of desalination brine. And this is where my collaboration with bacteria comes into play. So what we're doing at the moment is we're accumulating metals like calcium, potassium and magnesium from out of desalination brine. And this, in terms of magnesium and the amount of water that I just mentioned, equates to a $four point five billion mining industry for Singapore -- a place that doesn't have any natural resources. So I'd like you to image a mining industry in a way that one hasn't existed before; imagine a mining industry that doesn't mean defiling the Earth; imagine bacteria helping us do this by accumulating and precipitating and sedimenting minerals out of desalination brine. And what you can see here is the beginning of an industry in a test tube, a mining industry that is in harmony with nature. Thank you.
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long_en_41
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Here you can see the plate holding it, and you can see the implants being put in -- so that in one operation we achieve this and this. So the patient's life is restored. That's the good news. However, his chin skin doesn't look the same as it did before. It's skin from his back. It's thicker, it's darker, it's coarser, it doesn't have the contours. And that's where we're failing, and that's where we need the face transplant. The face transplant has a role probably in burns patients to replace the skin. We can replace the underlying skeletal structure, but we're still not good at replacing the facial skin. So it's very valuable to have that tool in our armamentarium. But the patients are going to have to take drugs that suppress their immune system for the rest of their lives. What does that mean? They have an increased risk of infection, an increased risk of malignancy. This is not a life-saving transplant -- like a heart, or liver, or lung transplant -- it is a quality-of-life transplant, and as a result, are the patients going to say, if they get a malignant cancer 10 or 15 years on, "I wish I'd had conventional reconstructive techniques rather than this because I'm now dying of a malignant cancer"? We don't know yet. We also don't know what they feel about recognition and identity. Bernard Devauchelle and Sylvie Testelin, who did the first operation, are studying that. Donors are going to be short on the ground, because how many people want to have their loved one's face removed at the point of death? So there are going to be problems with face transplantation. So the better news is the future's almost here -- and the future is tissue engineering. Just imagine, I can make a biologically-degradable template. I can put it in place where it's meant to be. I can sprinkle a few cells, stem cells from the patient's own hip, a little bit of genetically engineered protein, and lo and behold, leave it for four months and the face is grown. This is a bit like a Julia Child recipe. But we've still got problems. We've got mouth cancer to solve. We're still not curing enough patients -- it's the most disfiguring cancer. We're still not reconstructing them well enough. In the U.K. we have an epidemic of facial injuries among young people. We still can't get rid of scars. We need to do research. And the best news of all is that surgeons know that we need to do research. And we've set up charities that will help us fund the clinical research to determine the best treatment practice now and better treatment into the future, so we don't just sit on our laurels and say, "Okay, we're doing okay. Let's leave it as it is." Thank you very much indeed.
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Here you can see the plate holding it, and you can see the implants being put in -- so that in one operation we achieve this and this. So the patient's life is restored. That's the good news. However, his chin skin doesn't look the same as it did before. It's skin from his back. It's thicker, it's darker, it's coarser, it doesn't have the contours. And that's where we're failing, and that's where we need the face transplant. The face transplant has a role probably in burns patients to replace the skin. We can replace the underlying skeletal structure, but we're still not good at replacing the facial skin. So it's very valuable to have that tool in our armamentarium. But the patients are going to have to take drugs that suppress their immune system for the rest of their lives. What does that mean? They have an increased risk of infection, an increased risk of malignancy. This is not a life-saving transplant -- like a heart, or liver, or lung transplant -- it is a quality-of-life transplant, and as a result, are the patients going to say, if they get a malignant cancer ten or fifteen years on, "I wish I'd had conventional reconstructive techniques rather than this because I'm now dying of a malignant cancer"? We don't know yet. We also don't know what they feel about recognition and identity. Bernard Devauchelle and Sylvie Testelin, who did the first operation, are studying that. Donors are going to be short on the ground, because how many people want to have their loved one's face removed at the point of death? So there are going to be problems with face transplantation. So the better news is the future's almost here -- and the future is tissue engineering. Just imagine, I can make a biologically-degradable template. I can put it in place where it's meant to be. I can sprinkle a few cells, stem cells from the patient's own hip, a little bit of genetically engineered protein, and lo and behold, leave it for four months and the face is grown. This is a bit like a Julia Child recipe. But we've still got problems. We've got mouth cancer to solve. We're still not curing enough patients -- it's the most disfiguring cancer. We're still not reconstructing them well enough. In the U.K. we have an epidemic of facial injuries among young people. We still can't get rid of scars. We need to do research. And the best news of all is that surgeons know that we need to do research. And we've set up charities that will help us fund the clinical research to determine the best treatment practice now and better treatment into the future, so we don't just sit on our laurels and say, "Okay, we're doing okay. Let's leave it as it is." Thank you very much indeed.
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long_en_64
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During the implementation period, this complicates to some extent the analysis of financial statements from a financial stability perspective, given that IFRS and nonIFRS accounts are not directly comparable. Consequently, in order to ensure a consistent analysis, the large banks are analysed in two sub-groups depending on whether they reported their 2005 accounts under IFRS or non-IFRS. European credit derivatives markets have, like their US counterparts, experienced rapid growth in the past few years. If history is a guide, such rapid growth is often accompanied by an increased potential for instability should conditions take a turn for the worse. This Box discusses the financial stability implications of recent events in these markets.
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During the implementation period, this complicates to some extent the analysis of financial statements from a financial stability perspective, given that IFRS and nonIFRS accounts are not directly comparable. Consequently, in order to ensure a consistent analysis, the large banks are analysed in two sub-groups depending on whether they reported their two thousand five accounts under IFRS or non-IFRS. European credit derivatives markets have, like their US counterparts, experienced rapid growth in the past few years. If history is a guide, such rapid growth is often accompanied by an increased potential for instability should conditions take a turn for the worse. This Box discusses the financial stability implications of recent events in these markets.
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long_en_56
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In the words of Bryan Stevenson, You see, it's just harder. "Tell me more about why you feel." Twenty years ago, we rarely identified each other. As for me, I'm a father. I'm an NBA fan. I'm a terrible aspiring bassist in a band. I'm a Utahn. I'm an American. How about you? You see, if we look, we can actually find shared that unite instead of divide. Now third, we can serve others. Service and volunteering and improve our outlook on life. Some forms of regular volunteering have even been associated. There is nothing better for the soul. Aristotle really was on to something when he described and summed up “Serve others and do good.” Fourth, and finally, we can work to develop of humility, patience and moderation, without which, as John Adams explained, we all become ravenous beasts of prey. Now look, I know it’s almost laughable to talk about words like, but I truly believe to remember how to disagree. In the words of Judge Learned Hand, “The true spirit of liberty is the spirit." "The spirit of liberty is the spirit the minds of other men and women.” And I started with a quote. He went on to say that freedom. It must be fought for and defended, for it comes only once to a people and those in history and then lost it have never known it again. Ladies and gentlemen, it is our solemn duty in our generation to once again secure the freedoms endowed to all of us from on high. We cannot wait for politicians. It will take real work, hard work by each of us. But we must remember. We must rise up and meet that radical call even, especially, our political opponents. It's... It's not an... It's not an easy answer. If we really want to change the world, we have to start. Thank you.
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In the words of Bryan Stevenson, You see, it's just harder. "Tell me more about why you feel." Twenty years ago, we rarely identified each other. As for me, I'm a father. I'm an NBA fan. I'm a terrible aspiring bassist in a band. I'm a Utahn. I'm an American. How about you? You see, if we look, we can actually find shared that unite instead of divide. Now third, we can serve others. Service and volunteering and improve our outlook on life. Some forms of regular volunteering have even been associated. There is nothing better for the soul. Aristotle really was on to something when he described and summed up “Serve others and do good.” Fourth, and finally, we can work to develop of humility, patience and moderation, without which, as John Adams explained, we all become ravenous beasts of prey. Now look, I know it’s almost laughable to talk about words like, but I truly believe to remember how to disagree. In the words of Judge Learned Hand, “The true spirit of liberty is the spirit." "The spirit of liberty is the spirit the minds of other men and women.” And I started with a quote. He went on to say that freedom. It must be fought for and defended, for it comes only once to a people and those in history and then lost it have never known it again. Ladies and gentlemen, it is our solemn duty in our generation to once again secure the freedoms endowed to all of us from on high. We cannot wait for politicians. It will take real work, hard work by each of us. But we must remember. We must rise up and meet that radical call even, especially, our political opponents. It's... It's not an... It's not an easy answer. If we really want to change the world, we have to start. Thank you.
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long_en_7
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Transcriber: Joseph Geni. When I was 27 years old, I left a very demanding job for a job that was even more. I went to teach seventh graders math in the New York City public schools. And like any teacher, I gave out homework assignments. When the work came back. What struck me was that IQ between my best and my worst students. Some of my strongest performers. Some of my smartest kids. And that got me thinking. The kinds of things you need. sure, they're hard: ratios, decimals. But these concepts are not impossible, and I was firmly convinced could learn the material if they worked hard and long enough. After several more years of teaching, I came to the conclusion. Is a much better understanding from a motivational perspective, from a psychological perspective. In education, the one thing. But what if doing depends on much more than your ability to learn. So I left the classroom, and I went to graduate school. I started studying kids and adults in all kinds of super. And in every study my question was, who is successful here and why? My research team and I went. We tried to predict which cadets would stay in military training. We went to the National Spelling Bee and tried to predict which children. We studied rookie teachers asking which teachers are still by the end of the school year, and of those, who will be at improving learning. We partnered with private. Which of these salespeople. And who's going to earn the most money? In all those very different contexts, one characteristic emerged. And it wasn't social intelligence. It wasn't good looks, physical health, and it wasn't IQ. It was grit. Grit is passion and perseverance. Grit is having stamina. Grit is sticking with your future, not just for the week, but for years, and working really hard. Grit is living life.
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Transcriber: Joseph Geni. When I was twenty-seven years old, I left a very demanding job for a job that was even more. I went to teach seventh graders math in the New York City public schools. And like any teacher, I gave out homework assignments. When the work came back. What struck me was that IQ between my best and my worst students. Some of my strongest performers. Some of my smartest kids. And that got me thinking. The kinds of things you need. sure, they're hard: ratios, decimals. But these concepts are not impossible, and I was firmly convinced could learn the material if they worked hard and long enough. After several more years of teaching, I came to the conclusion. Is a much better understanding from a motivational perspective, from a psychological perspective. In education, the one thing. But what if doing depends on much more than your ability to learn. So I left the classroom, and I went to graduate school. I started studying kids and adults in all kinds of super. And in every study my question was, who is successful here and why? My research team and I went. We tried to predict which cadets would stay in military training. We went to the National Spelling Bee and tried to predict which children. We studied rookie teachers asking which teachers are still by the end of the school year, and of those, who will be at improving learning. We partnered with private. Which of these salespeople. And who's going to earn the most money? In all those very different contexts, one characteristic emerged. And it wasn't social intelligence. It wasn't good looks, physical health, and it wasn't IQ. It was grit. Grit is passion and perseverance. Grit is having stamina. Grit is sticking with your future, not just for the week, but for years, and working really hard. Grit is living life.
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long_en_12
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We are addicted, because we see so we go in and add fuel to the fire, and the daily active usage goes up, and there's more ad revenue there, but we all get angrier with each other. How do you define ... "Daily active usage" seems like a really. JD: Taken alone, it is. But you didn't let me, which is, we're watching for conversations and conversation chains. So we want to incentivize, and what we believe that is that is healthy, as defined by those four indicators. So you can't just optimize. You have to balance and look constantly at what is actually going to create and a healthy experience for people. Ultimately, we want to get to a metric where people can tell us, and I'm walking away. That is our goal ultimately over time, but that's going to take some time. CA: You come over to many. This is possibly unfair, with this picture of how I found I was that we're on this great voyage with you, and there are people on board in steerage who are expressing discomfort, and you, unlike many other captains, are saying, "Well, tell me, talk to me." And they talk to you, and they say. And you go, "You know, and our ship, frankly, for steering as well as it might." And we say, "Please do something." And you go to the bridge, and we're waiting, and we look, and then you're showing, but we're all standing outside, You know? I mean -- I mean, you're doing a brilliant job, but to actually dial up the urgency, will you do that? JD: Yes, and we have been. I mean, there's been One, when I came back to the company, we were in a pretty dire state and not just from how people but from a corporate narrative as well. So we had to fix turn the company around, go through two crazy layoffs, because we just got too big and we focused all of our energy on this concept of serving. And that took some work. And as we dived into that, we realized some of the issues.
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We are addicted, because we see so we go in and add fuel to the fire, and the daily active usage goes up, and there's more ad revenue there, but we all get angrier with each other. How do you define ... "Daily active usage" seems like a really. JD: Taken alone, it is. But you didn't let me, which is, we're watching for conversations and conversation chains. So we want to incentivize, and what we believe that is that is healthy, as defined by those four indicators. So you can't just optimize. You have to balance and look constantly at what is actually going to create and a healthy experience for people. Ultimately, we want to get to a metric where people can tell us, and I'm walking away. That is our goal ultimately over time, but that's going to take some time. CA: You come over to many. This is possibly unfair, with this picture of how I found I was that we're on this great voyage with you, and there are people on board in steerage who are expressing discomfort, and you, unlike many other captains, are saying, "Well, tell me, talk to me." And they talk to you, and they say. And you go, "You know, and our ship, frankly, for steering as well as it might." And we say, "Please do something." And you go to the bridge, and we're waiting, and we look, and then you're showing, but we're all standing outside, You know? I mean -- I mean, you're doing a brilliant job, but to actually dial up the urgency, will you do that? JD: Yes, and we have been. I mean, there's been one, when I came back to the company, we were in a pretty dire state and not just from how people but from a corporate narrative as well. So we had to fix turn the company around, go through two crazy layoffs, because we just got too big and we focused all of our energy on this concept of serving. And that took some work. And as we dived into that, we realized some of the issues.
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What I'm about to share with you of the brains of more than 1,000. Now, these were children from diverse homes, and this picture is an average. The front of this average brain, and the back of this average brain. Now, one of the things was the surface area, or the thin, wrinkly layer that does most. And that's because past work, that in many cases, a larger cortical surface area is often associated. Now, in this study, we found one factor that was associated across nearly the entire. That factor was family income. Now, here, every point you see in color was associated with a larger. And there were some regions where that association. And those are regions that we know support language skills, as well as the ability and exert self-control. And that's important, because those are the very skills that children living in poverty. In fact, a child living with poverty is likely to perform worse on tests before they even turn two. Now, there are a few points. Number one: this link between family income was strongest at the lowest income levels. So that means that dollar for dollar, relatively small differences were associated with proportionately among the most disadvantaged families. And intuitively, that makes sense, right? An extra 20,000 dollars for a family would certainly be nice, whereas an extra 20,000 dollars for a family only earning would likely make a remarkable difference. Now, the second point is that this link between family income didn't depend on the children's age. It didn't depend on their sex. And it didn't depend. And the final point -- and this one's key -- there was tremendous variability, by which I mean there were plenty with smaller brain surfaces, and plenty of children with larger brain surfaces. Here's an analogy. We all know that in childhood, boys tend to be taller than girls, but go into any elementary, and you'll find some girls. So, while growing up in poverty for a smaller brain surface, in no way can I know an individual and know with any accuracy what that particular child's brain. I want you to imagine. One is a young child, the other is also an American child, but one who was born. Now, at birth, we find in how their brains work. But by the time those two kids, we know that the child living in poverty is likely to have cognitive scores than those of the other child. Later on, that child living in poverty will be five times more likely. And if she does graduate high school, she'll be less likely to earn. By the time those two kids, if the first child spent, she is up to 75 times. But it doesn't have to be that way. As a neuroscientist, one of things is that our experiences change our brains. Now, this concept, means that these differences don't doom a child. The brain is not destiny. And if a child's brain can be changed, then anything is possible.
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What I'm about to share with you of the brains of more than one thousand. Now, these were children from diverse homes, and this picture is an average. The front of this average brain, and the back of this average brain. Now, one of the things was the surface area, or the thin, wrinkly layer that does most. And that's because past work, that in many cases, a larger cortical surface area is often associated. Now, in this study, we found one factor that was associated across nearly the entire. That factor was family income. Now, here, every point you see in color was associated with a larger. And there were some regions where that association. And those are regions that we know support language skills, as well as the ability and exert self-control. And that's important, because those are the very skills that children living in poverty. In fact, a child living with poverty is likely to perform worse on tests before they even turn two. Now, there are a few points. Number one: this link between family income was strongest at the lowest income levels. So that means that dollar for dollar, relatively small differences were associated with proportionately among the most disadvantaged families. And intuitively, that makes sense, right? An extra twenty thousand dollars for a family would certainly be nice, whereas an extra twenty thousand dollars for a family only earning would likely make a remarkable difference. Now, the second point is that this link between family income didn't depend on the children's age. It didn't depend on their sex. And it didn't depend. And the final point -- and this one's key -- there was tremendous variability, by which I mean there were plenty with smaller brain surfaces, and plenty of children with larger brain surfaces. Here's an analogy. We all know that in childhood, boys tend to be taller than girls, but go into any elementary, and you'll find some girls. So, while growing up in poverty for a smaller brain surface, in no way can I know an individual and know with any accuracy what that particular child's brain. I want you to imagine. One is a young child, the other is also an American child, but one who was born. Now, at birth, we find in how their brains work. But by the time those two kids, we know that the child living in poverty is likely to have cognitive scores than those of the other child. Later on, that child living in poverty will be five times more likely. And if she does graduate high school, she'll be less likely to earn. By the time those two kids, if the first child spent, she is up to seventy five times. But it doesn't have to be that way. As a neuroscientist, one of things is that our experiences change our brains. Now, this concept, means that these differences don't doom a child. The brain is not destiny. And if a child's brain can be changed, then anything is possible.
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In an online interview with the director Jamie Franklin, he said, "The US forces dropped over two million." If they couldn't find there were free-drop areas in Laos before going back to base, because it's dangerous to land. According to the International in Laos alone -- one of the poorest nine to 27 million unexploded. Some 11,000 people have been killed. This lethal weapon has been used in over 35 countries, such as Ukraine, Iraq and Sudan. So far, 119 states have joined banning cluster bombs, which is officially called. But some of the biggest producers namely, the United States, remain outside of this lifesaving treaty and continue to produce them, reserve the right to produce keep those harmful weapons and even possibly use them in the future. Cluster bombs have reportedly in the ongoing conflicts. According to research in cluster munitions producers by Pax, a Dutch-based NGO, financial institutions invested into companies that make. The majority of these institutions that have not yet signed. Getting back to Mohammed, one of the few jobs he was able. When I ask him if it's safe, "I'm not sure." Research shows that cluster munitions where agriculture is the main. According to Handicap 98 percent of those killed or injured. Eighty-four percent. In countries where but to work in those fields, they simply do it and risk it. Mohammed is the only male. Culturally, he's expected but he simply can't. He tried to have so many different jobs, but he couldn't keep any and the less-than-friendly environment to say the least. It hurts him a lot when he goes and he's turned away with a small amount of money. He said, "I'm not here to beg for money, I just want to earn it." Mohammed today is 21 years old. He's illiterate, and he communicates with voice messages. Here is one of his messages. Mohammed: Laura Boushnak: "and I'm pretty sure once I start running, I would never stop." Thank you.
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In an online interview with the director Jamie Franklin, he said, "The US forces dropped over two million." If they couldn't find there were free-drop areas in Laos before going back to base, because it's dangerous to land. According to the International in Laos alone -- one of the poorest nine to twenty seven million unexploded. Some eleven thousand people have been killed. This lethal weapon has been used in over thirty five countries, such as Ukraine, Iraq and Sudan. So far, one hundred nineteen states have joined banning cluster bombs, which is officially called. But some of the biggest producers namely, the United States, remain outside of this lifesaving treaty and continue to produce them, reserve the right to produce keep those harmful weapons and even possibly use them in the future. Cluster bombs have reportedly in the ongoing conflicts. According to research in cluster munitions producers by Pax, a Dutch-based NGO, financial institutions invested into companies that make. The majority of these institutions that have not yet signed. Getting back to Mohammed, one of the few jobs he was able. When I ask him if it's safe, "I'm not sure." Research shows that cluster munitions where agriculture is the main. According to Handicap ninety eight percent of those killed or injured. Eighty-four percent. In countries where but to work in those fields, they simply do it and risk it. Mohammed is the only male. Culturally, he's expected but he simply can't. He tried to have so many different jobs, but he couldn't keep any and the less-than-friendly environment to say the least. It hurts him a lot when he goes and he's turned away with a small amount of money. He said, "I'm not here to beg for money, I just want to earn it." Mohammed today is twenty one years old. He's illiterate, and he communicates with voice messages. Here is one of his messages. Mohammed: Laura Boushnak: "and I'm pretty sure once I start running, I would never stop." Thank you.
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If you fall asleep, the enemy may come and kill you.’ And his grizzled platoon sergeant said, ‘That’s not the message for these Marines, sir. They’ve been in this fight so long, they don’t care that much about themselves. You need to tell them that if they fall asleep, the enemy is going to come and kill their buddies. That’s what’s going to keep them alert.’ In my own career, I saw that play out a few times. I don’t know how that translates directly into the private sector, but I do believe teams are bonded over challenge. If there’s not enough challenge in the workplace, then it’s good for a leader to create challenges. This causes teams to work together to accomplish a mission. And, doing this also allows a leader to observe the team, to see who rises to the occasion more than others, to see who responds to stress more than others.
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If you fall asleep, the enemy may come and kill you.’ And his grizzled platoon sergeant said, ‘That’s not the message for these Marines, sir. They’ve been in this fight so long, they don’t care that much about themselves. You need to tell them that if they fall asleep, the enemy is going to come and kill their buddies. That’s what’s going to keep them alert.’ In my own career, I saw that play out a few times. I don’t know how that translates directly into the private sector, but I do believe teams are bonded over challenge. If there’s not enough challenge in the workplace, then it’s good for a leader to create challenges. This causes teams to work together to accomplish a mission. And, doing this also allows a leader to observe the team, to see who rises to the occasion more than others, to see who responds to stress more than others.
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It also reviews some issues related to the eventual exit from such measures. An estimate of potential write-downs for the period from the beginning of 2007 until end-2010 related to the financial market turmoil for euro area banks was published in the June 2009 FSR, along with the methodology that was used to make the calculations. Using the same methodology and with the benefit of more granular data on loan and securities exposures of euro area banks, this box presents an update of the estimate and assesses, based on new macroeconomic forecasts, the magnitude of potential future write-downs that may be suffered by the euro area banking sector by the end of 2010. Before the eruption of the crisis, euro area financial institutions had been relying heavily on covered bonds to fund an important part of the increase in residential mortgage and public sector lending. This box describes the main developments in the euro area covered bond market during the crisis and reports on some of the effects of the covered bond purchase programme (CBPP) that was announced on 7 May 2009 and that constitutes an integral part of the enhanced credit support measures initiated and implemented by the Eurosystem. On 24 September 2009, the ECB published the results of the Euro Money Market Survey 2009, which were based on data collected from banks in 27 European countries and covered developments in various segments of the euro money market in the second quarter of 2009. This box reports on the survey’s main findings.
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It also reviews some issues related to the eventual exit from such measures. An estimate of potential write-downs for the period from the beginning of two thousand seven until end-two thousand ten related to the financial market turmoil for euro area banks was published in the June two thousand nine FSR, along with the methodology that was used to make the calculations. Using the same methodology and with the benefit of more granular data on loan and securities exposures of euro area banks, this box presents an update of the estimate and assesses, based on new macroeconomic forecasts, the magnitude of potential future write-downs that may be suffered by the euro area banking sector by the end of two thousand ten. Before the eruption of the crisis, euro area financial institutions had been relying heavily on covered bonds to fund an important part of the increase in residential mortgage and public sector lending. This box describes the main developments in the euro area covered bond market during the crisis and reports on some of the effects of the covered bond purchase programme (CBPP) that was announced on seven May two thousand nine and that constitutes an integral part of the enhanced credit support measures initiated and implemented by the Eurosystem. On twenty four September two thousand nine, the ECB published the results of the Euro Money Market Survey two thousand nine, which were based on data collected from banks in twenty seven European countries and covered developments in various segments of the euro money market in the second quarter of two thousand nine. This box reports on the survey’s main findings.
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Of course, Medicaid is funded so you might be wondering. Well, we're cheaper than the alternatives. Some of our patients which can cost thousands. Some may stay home. But most would try to make an appointment called the Federally. This is a nationwide network that receive twice as much than private doctors like me. Not only they get more money, but by law, there can only be. That means they have a monopoly. And like any monopoly, there's a tendency for cost to go up. I'm not a government entity; I'm a private practice. I have a capitalist drive to innovate. I have to be fast and friendly. I have to be cost-effective. I have to be tall, dark and handsome. And if I'm not, I'm going out of business. I can innovate faster than a nonprofit, because I don't need a meeting. Really, none of our innovations we just put them together in a unique way to help low-income folks. And then, instead of taking I put it back into the refugee community. This is Mango House. My version of a medical home. In it, we have programs an after-school program, English classes, churches, dentist, legal help,. These programs are run and amazing staff, but all receive some amount of funding. Some call this social entrepreneurship. I call it social-service arbitrage. Exploiting inefficiencies in our. We're serving 15,000 refugees a year at less cost than where else. Of course, there's downsides rather than as a nonprofit. There's taxes and legal exposures. There's changing Medicaid rates. And there's bomb threats. Notice there's no apostrophes, it's like, "We were going to blow up.". "We were going to blow up but then we went.". Now, you might be thinking, Uncommon. A communal narcissist? A unicorn, maybe, because if this was so easy. Well, based on Medicaid rates,. You can be your own boss, help the poor and make. Medical folks, you wrote on your school that you wanted to help. But then you had your idealism. Your creativity bred out of you. It doesn't have to be that way. You can choose underserved medicine. Or you can be a specialist who cuts cost in order to see. And for the rest of you, what did you write on your applications? Most of us wanted to save the world. Maybe you've been but are now looking for that meaning? How can you get there? I don't just mean giving. I mean how can you use your expertise. It might be easier than you think. The only way we're going to bridge is by seeing it as a business opportunity. The only way we're going to bridge is by recognizing our privileges.
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Of course, Medicaid is funded so you might be wondering. Well, we're cheaper than the alternatives. Some of our patients which can cost thousands. Some may stay home. But most would try to make an appointment called the Federally. This is a nationwide network that receive twice as much than private doctors like me. Not only they get more money, but by law, there can only be. That means they have a monopoly. And like any monopoly, there's a tendency for cost to go up. I'm not a government entity; I'm a private practice. I have a capitalist drive to innovate. I have to be fast and friendly. I have to be cost-effective. I have to be tall, dark and handsome. And if I'm not, I'm going out of business. I can innovate faster than a nonprofit, because I don't need a meeting. Really, none of our innovations we just put them together in a unique way to help low-income folks. And then, instead of taking I put it back into the refugee community. This is Mango House. My version of a medical home. In it, we have programs an after-school program, English classes, churches, dentist, legal help,. These programs are run and amazing staff, but all receive some amount of funding. Some call this social entrepreneurship. I call it social-service arbitrage. Exploiting inefficiencies in our. We're serving fifteen thousand refugees a year at less cost than where else. Of course, there's downsides rather than as a nonprofit. There's taxes and legal exposures. There's changing Medicaid rates. And there's bomb threats. Notice there's no apostrophes, it's like, "We were going to blow up.". "We were going to blow up but then we went.". Now, you might be thinking, Uncommon. A communal narcissist? A unicorn, maybe, because if this was so easy. Well, based on Medicaid rates,. You can be your own boss, help the poor and make. Medical folks, you wrote on your school that you wanted to help. But then you had your idealism. Your creativity bred out of you. It doesn't have to be that way. You can choose underserved medicine. Or you can be a specialist who cuts cost in order to see. And for the rest of you, what did you write on your applications? Most of us wanted to save the world. Maybe you've been but are now looking for that meaning? How can you get there? I don't just mean giving. I mean how can you use your expertise. It might be easier than you think. The only way we're going to bridge is by seeing it as a business opportunity. The only way we're going to bridge is by recognizing our privileges.
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You still matter. There's also a microphone that's listening to the aggregate laughter and applause and booing -- I hope not -- to help make some of its next decisions. Right, so, let the robot stand-up comedy begin. Data: Hello TEDWomen. It's an honor to be here. You guys are looking good out there. Ready for some jokes? Audience: Yeah. Data: Here's the first one. Right, so, a doctor says to his patient, "I have bad news and worse news. The bad news is that you only have 24 hours to live." "That's terrible," said the patient. "How can the news possibly be worse?" "I've been trying to contact you since yesterday." The Swiss have an interesting army. Five hundred years without a war. Heather Knight: He's talking about the Swiss. Data: Pretty lucky for them. Ever see that little Swiss Army knife they have to fight with? "Come on buddy, I have the toe clippers right here. You get past me, the guy behind me has a spoon." HK: He's a French robot. Data: A couple of New Jersey hunters are out in the woods. One of them falls to the ground. He does not seem to be breathing. The other guy whips out his cell phone and calls 911. He gasps to the operator, "My friend is dead. What can I do?" The operator says, "Just take it easy. I can help. First, let's make sure he's dead." There is a silence, and the operator hears a shot. The guy's voice comes back on the line, "Okay, now what?" Question: Why is television called a medium? Anyone? Because it's neither rare nor well done. But to be completely honest with you, I kind of love television. Any of you like television? Audience: Yes. Data: I find it incredibly educational. Actually, as soon as someone turns it on, I go into the other room and read. That's all for now. Was that okay for my first time? You've been a great audience. Thank you. HK: Yay. So this is actually the first time we've ever done live audience feedback to a performance. So thank you all for being a part of it. There's a lot more to come. And we hope to learn a lot about robot expression. Thank you very much.
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You still matter. There's also a microphone that's listening to the aggregate laughter and applause and booing -- I hope not -- to help make some of its next decisions. Right, so, let the robot stand-up comedy begin. Data: Hello TEDWomen. It's an honor to be here. You guys are looking good out there. Ready for some jokes? Audience: Yeah. Data: Here's the first one. Right, so, a doctor says to his patient, "I have bad news and worse news. The bad news is that you only have twenty four hours to live." "That's terrible," said the patient. "How can the news possibly be worse?" "I've been trying to contact you since yesterday." The Swiss have an interesting army. Five hundred years without a war. Heather Knight: He's talking about the Swiss. Data: Pretty lucky for them. Ever see that little Swiss Army knife they have to fight with? "Come on buddy, I have the toe clippers right here. You get past me, the guy behind me has a spoon." HK: He's a French robot. Data: A couple of New Jersey hunters are out in the woods. One of them falls to the ground. He does not seem to be breathing. The other guy whips out his cell phone and calls nine one one. He gasps to the operator, "My friend is dead. What can I do?" The operator says, "Just take it easy. I can help. First, let's make sure he's dead." There is a silence, and the operator hears a shot. The guy's voice comes back on the line, "Okay, now what?" Question: Why is television called a medium? Anyone? Because it's neither rare nor well done. But to be completely honest with you, I kind of love television. Any of you like television? Audience: Yes. Data: I find it incredibly educational. Actually, as soon as someone turns it on, I go into the other room and read. That's all for now. Was that okay for my first time? You've been a great audience. Thank you. HK: Yay. So this is actually the first time we've ever done live audience feedback to a performance. So thank you all for being a part of it. There's a lot more to come. And we hope to learn a lot about robot expression. Thank you very much.
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Time has come to stop thinking about sub-Saharan Africa as one place. Their countries are so different, and they merit to be recognized in the same way, as we don't talk about Europe as one place. I can tell you that the economy in Greece and Sweden are very different -- everyone knows that. And they are judged, each country, on how they are doing. So let me show the wider picture. My country, Sweden: 1800, we were up there. What a strange personality disorder we must have, counting the children so meticulously in spite of a high child death rate. It's very strange. It's sort of embarrassing. But we had that habit in Sweden, you know, that we counted all the child deaths, even if we didn't do anything about it. And then, you see, these were famine years. These were bad years, and people got fed up with Sweden. My ancestors moved to the United States. And eventually, soon they started to get better and better here. And here we got better education, and we got health service, and child mortality came down. We never had a war; Sweden was in peace all this time. But look, the rate of lowering in Sweden was not fast. Sweden achieved a low child mortality because we started early. We had primary school actually started in 1842. And then you get that wonderful effect when we got female literacy one generation later. You have to realize that the investments we do in progress are long-term investments. It's not about just five years -- it's long-term investments. And Sweden never reached [the] Millennium Development Goal rate, 3.1 percent when I calculated. So we are off track -- that's what Sweden is. But you don't talk about it so much. We want others to be better than we were, and indeed, others have been better. Let me show you Thailand, see what a success story, Thailand from the 1960s -- how they went down here and reached almost the same child mortality levels as Sweden. And I'll give you another story -- Egypt, the most hidden, glorious success in public health. Egypt was up here in 1960, higher than Congo. The Nile Delta was a misery for children with diarrheal disease and malaria and a lot of problems. And then they got the Aswan Dam. They got electricity in their homes, they increased education and they got primary health care. And down they went, you know. And they got safer water, they eradicated malaria. And isn't it a success story. Millennium Development Goal rates for child mortality is fully possible. And the good thing is that Ghana today is going with the same rate as Egypt did at its fastest. Kenya is now speeding up. Here we have a problem. We have a severe problem in countries which are at a standstill. Now, let me now bring you to a wider picture, a wider picture of child mortality. I'm going to show you the relationship between child mortality on this axis here -- this axis here is child mortality -- and here I have the family size.
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Time has come to stop thinking about sub-Saharan Africa as one place. Their countries are so different, and they merit to be recognized in the same way, as we don't talk about Europe as one place. I can tell you that the economy in Greece and Sweden are very different -- everyone knows that. And they are judged, each country, on how they are doing. So let me show the wider picture. My country, Sweden: one thousand eight hundred, we were up there. What a strange personality disorder we must have, counting the children so meticulously in spite of a high child death rate. It's very strange. It's sort of embarrassing. But we had that habit in Sweden, you know, that we counted all the child deaths, even if we didn't do anything about it. And then, you see, these were famine years. These were bad years, and people got fed up with Sweden. My ancestors moved to the United States. And eventually, soon they started to get better and better here. And here we got better education, and we got health service, and child mortality came down. We never had a war; Sweden was in peace all this time. But look, the rate of lowering in Sweden was not fast. Sweden achieved a low child mortality because we started early. We had primary school actually started in one thousand eight hundred forty two. And then you get that wonderful effect when we got female literacy one generation later. You have to realize that the investments we do in progress are long-term investments. It's not about just five years -- it's long-term investments. And Sweden never reached [the] Millennium Development Goal rate, three point one percent when I calculated. So we are off track -- that's what Sweden is. But you don't talk about it so much. We want others to be better than we were, and indeed, others have been better. Let me show you Thailand, see what a success story, Thailand from the nineteen sixties -- how they went down here and reached almost the same child mortality levels as Sweden. And I'll give you another story -- Egypt, the most hidden, glorious success in public health. Egypt was up here in nineteen sixty, higher than Congo. The Nile Delta was a misery for children with diarrheal disease and malaria and a lot of problems. And then they got the Aswan Dam. They got electricity in their homes, they increased education and they got primary health care. And down they went, you know. And they got safer water, they eradicated malaria. And isn't it a success story. Millennium Development Goal rates for child mortality is fully possible. And the good thing is that Ghana today is going with the same rate as Egypt did at its fastest. Kenya is now speeding up. Here we have a problem. We have a severe problem in countries which are at a standstill. Now, let me now bring you to a wider picture, a wider picture of child mortality. I'm going to show you the relationship between child mortality on this axis here -- this axis here is child mortality -- and here I have the family size.
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Now, that study was with but it's important because it shows can be extended to humans. And with humans, you can test whether destroying does anything to. And this is really interesting. Even though people while the memory was in edit mode were no longer afraid they could still describe the relationship between the cue. It was as if they knew and yet they weren't. This suggests that Propranolol the non-declarative emotional memory but leave the declarative. But critically, Propranolol can only have if it's in edit mode. So how do we make a memory unstable? How do we get it into edit mode? Well, my own lab has done. We know that it depends on introducing to be incorporated into the memory. We know about the different to signal that a memory and the file edited. Now, our work is mostly in rats, but other labs have found the same factors even maladaptive memories. In fact, a number of labs have begun small-scale clinical trials for PTSD and have found really promising results. Now, these studies need replication, but they show the promise for PTSD. Maybe trauma memories do not need to be. Now, although this memory-destroying that's not to say or without controversy. Is it ethical to destroy memories? What about things. What if you can't give someone Propranolol because it would interfere? Well, with respect to ethics I would say the important is the finding from that human study. Because Propranolol is only acting it seems unlikely that it would affect which is based on declarative memory. Essentially, what these are aiming to do is to reduce the emotional memory, not get rid of the trauma. This should make the responses more like those who have and not developed PTSD than people who have never. I think that most people would find that than a treatment that aimed. What about Propranolol? You can't give Propranolol to everyone, and not everyone wants to take drugs. Well, here Tetris could be useful. Yes, Tetris. Working with clinical collaborators, we've been looking at whether can also interfere with. Now, how would that work? Well, we know that to do two tasks at the same time if they both depend on. Think trying to sing along to the radio while you're trying to compose an email. The processing for one. Well, it's the same when especially in edit mode. If we take a highly visual symptom and get people to recall and then get them to do like playing Tetris, it should be possible to introduce into that memory that it essentially becomes meaningless. That's the theory, and it's supported by data. Now, our volunteers watched so, think eye surgery, Scorsese's "The Big Shave." These trauma films produce in healthy volunteers. We found that getting people the worst moments and playing Tetris at the same time, massively reduced the frequency. And again: the memory had to be. Now, my collaborators have since. They've tested this in survivors and mothers who've had both types of trauma and they found really promising in both of those clinical cases. So although there is still much to learn these memory-destroying treatments for the treatment like PTSD. Maybe trauma memories do not need. I believe that this approach should allow those who want to to turn the page that they would prefer and so improve our mental health. Thank you.
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Now, that study was with but it's important because it shows can be extended to humans. And with humans, you can test whether destroying does anything to. And this is really interesting. Even though people while the memory was in edit mode were no longer afraid they could still describe the relationship between the cue. It was as if they knew and yet they weren't. This suggests that Propranolol the non-declarative emotional memory but leave the declarative. But critically, Propranolol can only have if it's in edit mode. So how do we make a memory unstable? How do we get it into edit mode? Well, my own lab has done. We know that it depends on introducing to be incorporated into the memory. We know about the different to signal that a memory and the file edited. Now, our work is mostly in rats, but other labs have found the same factors even maladaptive memories. In fact, a number of labs have begun small-scale clinical trials for PTSD and have found really promising results. Now, these studies need replication, but they show the promise for PTSD. Maybe trauma memories do not need to be. Now, although this memory-destroying that's not to say or without controversy. Is it ethical to destroy memories? What about things. What if you can't give someone Propranolol because it would interfere? Well, with respect to ethics I would say the important is the finding from that human study. Because Propranolol is only acting it seems unlikely that it would affect which is based on declarative memory. Essentially, what these are aiming to do is to reduce the emotional memory, not get rid of the trauma. This should make the responses more like those who have and not developed PTSD than people who have never. I think that most people would find that than a treatment that aimed. What about Propranolol? You can't give Propranolol to everyone, and not everyone wants to take drugs. Well, here Tetris could be useful. Yes, Tetris. Working with clinical collaborators, we've been looking at whether can also interfere with. Now, how would that work? Well, we know that to do two tasks at the same time if they both depend on. Think trying to sing along to the radio while you're trying to compose an email. The processing for one. Well, it's the same when especially in edit mode. If we take a highly visual symptom and get people to recall and then get them to do like playing Tetris, it should be possible to introduce into that memory that it essentially becomes meaningless. That's the theory, and it's supported by data. Now, our volunteers watched so, think eye surgery, Scorsese's "The Big Shave." These trauma films produce in healthy volunteers. We found that getting people the worst moments and playing Tetris at the same time, massively reduced the frequency. And again: the memory had to be. Now, my collaborators have since. They've tested this in survivors and mothers who've had both types of trauma and they found really promising in both of those clinical cases. So although there is still much to learn these memory-destroying treatments for the treatment like PTSD. Maybe trauma memories do not need. I believe that this approach should allow those who want to to turn the page that they would prefer and so improve our mental health. Thank you.
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long_en_11
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Memory is such an everyday thing. We all remember what we had or what we did last weekend. It's only when memory starts to fail that we appreciate just how amazing it is and how much we allow. But memory is not always a good thing. As the American poet and clergyman, "As memory may be a paradise, it may also be a hell." Many of us experience that we would prefer. It is estimated that will experience some sort of. Many of us will suffer acutely, maybe even become better people. But some events, up to half of those who survive, will go on to develop or PTSD. PTSD is a debilitating, characterized by symptoms and flashbacks of the traumatic event. These symptoms have a huge impact, and are often triggered or cues in that person's environment. The responses to those cues may have been fear and diving for cover, but in PTSD, they continue to control behavior. If a combat veteran returns home when he or she hears a car backfiring or can't leave their own home, then the responses have become what we would. In this way, we can think of PTSD. Now, I should stop myself here, because I'm talking about memory. It isn't. There are many different types of memory, and these depend upon different circuits. As you can see, there are two. There are those memories where we know we know and that we can pass on in words. This would include memories. Because we can declare these memories, we refer to these as declarative memories. The other type of memory. These are memories where we often to the content of those memories and that we can't pass on in words. The classic example is the motor skill for riding a bike. Now, this being Cambridge, You know what you're doing on two wheels. But if I asked you to write me that would teach me how to ride a bike, as my four-year-old son did for his last birthday, you would really struggle to do that. How should you sit on the bike? How fast do you need to pedal? If a gust of wind comes at you, which muscles should you tense so that you don't get blown off? I'll be staggered if you can give. But if you can ride a bike, you're just not consciously aware of them. Getting back to PTSD, another type of non-declarative memory is emotional memory. Now, this has a specific and refers to our ability and their emotional. What do I mean by that? Well, think of a cue or a more abstract cue. Because these cues have been pegged we like them and we approach them. Other cues, like the buzzing of a wasp, and quite dramatic. Now, I hate wasps. I can tell you that fact. But what I can't give you for how I react. I can't give you the racing heart, the sweaty palms. I can describe them to you, but I can't give them to you. Now, importantly, stress has very different effects on and the brain circuits. Emotional memory is supported called the amygdala and its connections. Declarative memory, especially the what, is supported by a seahorse-shaped called the hippocampus. The extreme levels of stress have very different effects. As you can see, as you increase from not stressful to slightly stressful, the hippocampus, acting to support the event memory, increases in its activity and works better to support. But as you increase to moderately and then extremely stressful, the hippocampus. This means that under that are experienced we are not storing the details, the specific details. Now, while stress is doing that look at what it does to the amygdala, that structure important. Its activity gets stronger and stronger. So what this leaves is an overly strong emotional -- that is not tied because the hippocampus. In this way, these cues when it's no longer appropriate, and that's how. So if we know that PTSD can we use that knowledge for patients with PTSD? A radical new approach being developed aims to destroy those maladaptive that underlie the disorder. This approach has only because of the profound changes in recent years. Traditionally, it was thought was like writing in a notebook in pen: once the ink had dried. It was thought that all that happen in the brain were finished within about six hours, and after that, they were permanent. This is known as the consolidation view. However, more recent research suggests is actually more like writing. We initially make the memory. But under the right conditions, this reconsolidation view suggests that happen in the brain to support memory can be undone, even for old memories.
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Memory is such an everyday thing. We all remember what we had or what we did last weekend. It's only when memory starts to fail that we appreciate just how amazing it is and how much we allow. But memory is not always a good thing. As the American poet and clergyman, "As memory may be a paradise, it may also be a hell." Many of us experience that we would prefer. It is estimated that will experience some sort of. Many of us will suffer acutely, maybe even become better people. But some events, up to half of those who survive, will go on to develop or PTSD. PTSD is a debilitating, characterized by symptoms and flashbacks of the traumatic event. These symptoms have a huge impact, and are often triggered or cues in that person's environment. The responses to those cues may have been fear and diving for cover, but in PTSD, they continue to control behavior. If a combat veteran returns home when he or she hears a car backfiring or can't leave their own home, then the responses have become what we would. In this way, we can think of PTSD. Now, I should stop myself here, because I'm talking about memory. It isn't. There are many different types of memory, and these depend upon different circuits. As you can see, there are two. There are those memories where we know we know and that we can pass on in words. This would include memories. Because we can declare these memories, we refer to these as declarative memories. The other type of memory. These are memories where we often to the content of those memories and that we can't pass on in words. The classic example is the motor skill for riding a bike. Now, this being Cambridge, You know what you're doing on two wheels. But if I asked you to write me that would teach me how to ride a bike, as my four year old son did for his last birthday, you would really struggle to do that. How should you sit on the bike? How fast do you need to pedal? If a gust of wind comes at you, which muscles should you tense so that you don't get blown off? I'll be staggered if you can give. But if you can ride a bike, you're just not consciously aware of them. Getting back to PTSD, another type of non-declarative memory is emotional memory. Now, this has a specific and refers to our ability and their emotional. What do I mean by that? Well, think of a cue or a more abstract cue. Because these cues have been pegged we like them and we approach them. Other cues, like the buzzing of a wasp, and quite dramatic. Now, I hate wasps. I can tell you that fact. But what I can't give you for how I react. I can't give you the racing heart, the sweaty palms. I can describe them to you, but I can't give them to you. Now, importantly, stress has very different effects on and the brain circuits. Emotional memory is supported called the amygdala and its connections. Declarative memory, especially the what, is supported by a seahorse-shaped called the hippocampus. The extreme levels of stress have very different effects. As you can see, as you increase from not stressful to slightly stressful, the hippocampus, acting to support the event memory, increases in its activity and works better to support. But as you increase to moderately and then extremely stressful, the hippocampus. This means that under that are experienced we are not storing the details, the specific details. Now, while stress is doing that look at what it does to the amygdala, that structure important. Its activity gets stronger and stronger. So what this leaves is an overly strong emotional -- that is not tied because the hippocampus. In this way, these cues when it's no longer appropriate, and that's how. So if we know that PTSD can we use that knowledge for patients with PTSD? A radical new approach being developed aims to destroy those maladaptive that underlie the disorder. This approach has only because of the profound changes in recent years. Traditionally, it was thought was like writing in a notebook in pen: once the ink had dried. It was thought that all that happen in the brain were finished within about six hours, and after that, they were permanent. This is known as the consolidation view. However, more recent research suggests is actually more like writing. We initially make the memory. But under the right conditions, this reconsolidation view suggests that happen in the brain to support memory can be undone, even for old memories.
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When was the last time in a city with new buildings? I want to talk to you about the problem that we all know exists. We're increasingly surrounded. I believe we're living through. With a few exceptions, we all know that new buildings. Everywhere is the same. Dull, flat, straight, shiny. Inhuman. They're what my daughter. These buildings justify themselves. I’m a designer of buildings, that form should follow function. Meaning if I work out mechanically the outcome will somehow. This mantra, form follows function. And it sounds good, doesn't it? Who can argue with that? Surely any extra detail is just silly. I want to talk about the function that's crucial. That I believe is missing. The function of emotion. And when I say emotion, I mean the ability of buildings. To lift our spirits, to connect us. Buildings affect us. We walk around them, we look up at them. And for most of us, they just leave us feeling indifferent. So if I took all of us to a city and said, "Which bit would you like to go to? Would you like to go to the old bit or the new bit?" You've given me my answer already. We all know instinctively, the majority are going. Why? Because we all know the new bit. So where did all the lumps? The shadows, the textures, the high points of light. How did it all become so two dimensional, so simplistic and devoid of character? Well, it turns out, I'm not the only one who's alarmed by what's happening. There's research showing that these buildings. They're harming us. They're bad for our mental health, causing stress in our brains. They're bad for our physical health, making us take longer to recover. And they're also bad for societal health, increasing the likelihood of crime. But this gets most sinister. And think about the climate crisis. Immense emphasis has been placed. And in this 2019 study, aviation was responsible for 2.1 percent. But the crazy elephant in the room is that the construction is responsible for a whopping 38 percent. And in America every year, a billion square foot of buildings. That’s the equivalent of half just to be reconstructed. And this isn't just in the US. This is global. In the UK, we demolish. The average age of a commercial building. So that means if I had been born I would have been killed 12 years ago. It's quite straightforward. When people don't love -- and I'm using the word love -- love buildings, they're more likely to demolish them. I feel those two dots. But when you make a building, one of the most expensive things there are, understandably, huge of politics and egos. These forces of soullessness are immense. And change is scary for everybody, myself included. But I'm convinced that emotion that's been forgotten. There are, however, who do understand. Here's a few of them. In France, Sou Fujimoto has designed this. In Burkina Faso, Francis Kéré has made. In Lebanon, Lina Ghotmeh Architecture to make characterful housing.
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When was the last time in a city with new buildings? I want to talk to you about the problem that we all know exists. We're increasingly surrounded. I believe we're living through. With a few exceptions, we all know that new buildings. Everywhere is the same. Dull, flat, straight, shiny. Inhuman. They're what my daughter. These buildings justify themselves. I’m a designer of buildings, that form should follow function. Meaning if I work out mechanically the outcome will somehow. This mantra, form follows function. And it sounds good, doesn't it? Who can argue with that? Surely any extra detail is just silly. I want to talk about the function that's crucial. That I believe is missing. The function of emotion. And when I say emotion, I mean the ability of buildings. To lift our spirits, to connect us. Buildings affect us. We walk around them, we look up at them. And for most of us, they just leave us feeling indifferent. So if I took all of us to a city and said, "Which bit would you like to go to? Would you like to go to the old bit or the new bit?" You've given me my answer already. We all know instinctively, the majority are going. Why? Because we all know the new bit. So where did all the lumps? The shadows, the textures, the high points of light. How did it all become so two dimensional, so simplistic and devoid of character? Well, it turns out, I'm not the only one who's alarmed by what's happening. There's research showing that these buildings. They're harming us. They're bad for our mental health, causing stress in our brains. They're bad for our physical health, making us take longer to recover. And they're also bad for societal health, increasing the likelihood of crime. But this gets most sinister. And think about the climate crisis. Immense emphasis has been placed. And in this two thousand nineteen study, aviation was responsible for two point one percent. But the crazy elephant in the room is that the construction is responsible for a whopping thirty-eight percent. And in America every year, a billion square foot of buildings. That’s the equivalent of half just to be reconstructed. And this isn't just in the US. This is global. In the UK, we demolish. The average age of a commercial building. So that means if I had been born I would have been killed twelve years ago. It's quite straightforward. When people don't love -- and I'm using the word love -- love buildings, they're more likely to demolish them. I feel those two dots. But when you make a building, one of the most expensive things there are, understandably, huge of politics and egos. These forces of soullessness are immense. And change is scary for everybody, myself included. But I'm convinced that emotion that's been forgotten. There are, however, who do understand. Here's a few of them. In France, Sou Fujimoto has designed this. In Burkina Faso, Francis Kéré has made. In Lebanon, Lina Ghotmeh Architecture to make characterful housing.
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It is a dream of mankind. Birds are very agile. They fly, not with rotating components, so they fly only by flapping their wings. So we looked at the birds, and we tried to make a model and it must have excellent that would fly by its own. So what would be better than to use circling and swooping over the sea, and to use this as a role model? So we bring a team together. There are generalists and also specialists in the field of building gliders. And the task was to build that is able to fly over your heads. So be careful later on. And this was one issue: to build it that lightweight that no one would be hurt if it fell down. So why do we do all this? We are a company and we'd like to do because that's energy efficient, and we'd like to learn more. So I now would like you and put your hats on. So maybe we'll try it once -- to fly a SmartBird. Thank you. So we can now look at the SmartBird. So here is one without a skin. We have a wingspan of about two meters. The length is one meter and six, and the weight is only 450 grams. And it is all out of carbon fiber. In the middle we have a motor, and we also have a gear in it, and we use the gear. So within the motor, so we know exactly where the wing is. And if we now beat up and down --. We have the possibility. So if you go down, you have. And if you go up, the wings are not that large, and it is easier to get up. So, the next thing we did, or the challenges we did, was to coordinate this movement. We have to turn it, go up and go down. We have a split wing. With the split wing, we get the lift at the upper wing, and we get the propulsion. Also, we see how we measure. We had knowledge and then we can calculate. So therefore, it rises up from 30 percent up to 80 percent. Next thing we have to do, we have to control and regulate. Only if you control and regulate it, you will get that aerodynamic efficiency. So the overall consumption of energy is about 25 watts at takeoff and 16 to 18 watts in flight. Thank you. Bruno Giussani: Markus, Markus Fischer: Yeah, sure. Yeah!
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It is a dream of mankind. Birds are very agile. They fly, not with rotating components, so they fly only by flapping their wings. So we looked at the birds, and we tried to make a model and it must have excellent that would fly by its own. So what would be better than to use circling and swooping over the sea, and to use this as a role model? So we bring a team together. There are generalists and also specialists in the field of building gliders. And the task was to build that is able to fly over your heads. So be careful later on. And this was one issue: to build it that lightweight that no one would be hurt if it fell down. So why do we do all this? We are a company and we'd like to do because that's energy efficient, and we'd like to learn more. So I now would like you and put your hats on. So maybe we'll try it once -- to fly a SmartBird. Thank you. So we can now look at the SmartBird. So here is one without a skin. We have a wingspan of about two meters. The length is one meter and six, and the weight is only four hundred fifty grams. And it is all out of carbon fiber. In the middle we have a motor, and we also have a gear in it, and we use the gear. So within the motor, so we know exactly where the wing is. And if we now beat up and down --. We have the possibility. So if you go down, you have. And if you go up, the wings are not that large, and it is easier to get up. So, the next thing we did, or the challenges we did, was to coordinate this movement. We have to turn it, go up and go down. We have a split wing. With the split wing, we get the lift at the upper wing, and we get the propulsion. Also, we see how we measure. We had knowledge and then we can calculate. So therefore, it rises up from thirty percent up to eighty percent. Next thing we have to do, we have to control and regulate. Only if you control and regulate it, you will get that aerodynamic efficiency. So the overall consumption of energy is about twenty five watts at takeoff and sixteen to eighteen watts in flight. Thank you. Bruno Giussani: Markus, Markus Fischer: Yeah, sure. Yeah!.
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Saida Aden Said: I still have. I could see people falling down, gunshots. I was so terrified. Really, I was crying a lot. Someone who knew my father and my mom: "Let's go! Let's go! Let's go!" And I was like, "Where's my mom?" Noria Dambrine Dusabireme: we would hear guns. Elections were supposed to happen. We had young people going in the street, they were having strikes. And most of the young people died. SAS: We boarded a vehicle. It was overloaded. People were running for their lives. That is how I fled from Somalia. My mom missed me. Nobody told her where I went. NDD: The fact that we couldn't go to the market, made me realize that if I got an option I could just go for it. Ignazio Matteini: Globally, have been increasing. Now there are almost 60 million. And unfortunately, it doesn't stop. Chrystina Russell: I think is starting to realize that we're talking about. Baylie Damtie Yeshita: These students, a degree that they can use. If the students are living now in Rwanda, if they get relocated, Still, their degree is useful,. CR: Our audacious project Southern New Hampshire University's ability to scale, to bring bachelor's degrees to refugees and those who would otherwise. SAS: It was almost impossible, to further my education. My name is Saida Aden Said, and I am from Somalia. I was nine years old and I started going to school at 17. Now I am doing my bachelor degree with SNHU. NDD: My name is Noria Dambrine Dusabireme. I'm doing my bachelor of arts with a concentration in business. CR: We are serving students. Lebanon, Kenya, Malawi,. Really proud to have 800 AA grads and nearly 1,000 students. So, the magic of this is that we're. There are no classes. There are no lectures. There are no due dates. There are no final exams. This degree is competency-based. You choose when you start your project. You choose how. NDD: When you open the platform,. Under each goal, we can find projects. When you open a project, that you have to master, directions and overview of the project. CR: The secret sauce of SNHU is combining that with the in-person learning to provide all the wraparound supports. That includes academic coaching. It means psychosocial support, medical support, and it's also that back-end that's really resulting the 88 percent employment. NDD: I'm a social media management intern. It's related to the communications. I've learned so many things. CR: The structured internship for students to practice their skills, for us to create connections and a later job opportunity. This is a model that really and university policies and instead puts the student. IM: The SNHU model. Huge. It's a huge shake to the traditional way. BDY: It can transform from these vulnerable. NDD: If I get the degree, I can just come back and work. I can go for a masters which is something that. And I have the confidence to actually go out without having to fear. SAS: I always wanted. I want to establish a nonprofit. We advocate for women's education. I want to be someone and encourage them to learn and tell them it is never too late. It's a dream.
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Saida Aden Said: I still have. I could see people falling down, gunshots. I was so terrified. Really, I was crying a lot. Someone who knew my father and my mom: "Let's go! Let's go! Let's go!" And I was like, "Where's my mom?" Noria Dambrine Dusabireme: we would hear guns. Elections were supposed to happen. We had young people going in the street, they were having strikes. And most of the young people died. SAS: We boarded a vehicle. It was overloaded. People were running for their lives. That is how I fled from Somalia. My mom missed me. Nobody told her where I went. NDD: The fact that we couldn't go to the market, made me realize that if I got an option I could just go for it. Ignazio Matteini: Globally, have been increasing. Now there are almost sixty million. And unfortunately, it doesn't stop. Chrystina Russell: I think is starting to realize that we're talking about. Baylie Damtie Yeshita: These students, a degree that they can use. If the students are living now in Rwanda, if they get relocated, Still, their degree is useful,. CR: Our audacious project Southern New Hampshire University's ability to scale, to bring bachelor's degrees to refugees and those who would otherwise. SAS: It was almost impossible, to further my education. My name is Saida Aden Said, and I am from Somalia. I was nine years old and I started going to school at seventeen. Now I am doing my bachelor degree with SNHU. NDD: My name is Noria Dambrine Dusabireme. I'm doing my bachelor of arts with a concentration in business. CR: We are serving students. Lebanon, Kenya, Malawi,. Really proud to have eight hundred AA grads and nearly one thousand students. So, the magic of this is that we're. There are no classes. There are no lectures. There are no due dates. There are no final exams. This degree is competency-based. You choose when you start your project. You choose how. NDD: When you open the platform,. Under each goal, we can find projects. When you open a project, that you have to master, directions and overview of the project. CR: The secret sauce of SNHU is combining that with the in-person learning to provide all the wraparound supports. That includes academic coaching. It means psychosocial support, medical support, and it's also that back-end that's really resulting the eighty eight percent employment. NDD: I'm a social media management intern. It's related to the communications. I've learned so many things. CR: The structured internship for students to practice their skills, for us to create connections and a later job opportunity. This is a model that really and university policies and instead puts the student. IM: The SNHU model. Huge. It's a huge shake to the traditional way. BDY: It can transform from these vulnerable. NDD: If I get the degree, I can just come back and work. I can go for a masters which is something that. And I have the confidence to actually go out without having to fear. SAS: I always wanted. I want to establish a nonprofit. We advocate for women's education. I want to be someone and encourage them to learn and tell them it is never too late. It's a dream.
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I want you to envision generated by artificial intelligence. When most of us think of AI art, I bet we're imagining something like this. We're all probably picturing Today, with machine learning models like we've seen AI produce everything to imaginary influencers to entirely foreign. AI as a technology is fascinating to us because we're inherently drawn. And with neural networks processing data made by people from every possible millions of images in one simple scan, they can produce visuals yet strikingly unfamiliar. More poetically, AI mirrors us. The world is beginning to change and it's basically divided. There are pessimists who think AI poses. And then optimists who see it. So is it even possible to be truly? How do we begin to critically engage? We can start by looking at some metaphors, narratives and insights from artists who are truly pushing. Let's look to these moments, confusion and wonder, that give us just one small glimpse into the possibilities of encounter. Because as we've seen, this is a very moral and ethical encounter as much as an aesthetic one. Mario Klingemann sold this piece. It is running an AI model from the 17th to 19th centuries. The model constantly reveals uncanny. Each one is unique, generated in real time. For the viewer, it's almost like peering as it conjures each new portrait. Sofia Crespo's series "Neural Zoo" of the real world to generate unreal sea creatures. Frogs look like flowers. Translucent jellyfish. There’s no one real creature but AI allows us to envision otherworldly. This abstract piece by Sara Ludy. It was augmented to fit a 16-by-9 ratio, using a prompt for "torn edges". Outpainting allows artists beyond the frame using simple. This piece by Ivona Tau. But it is also the work of AI. It's the result of GAN training from the artist's personal. Tau curates from her own photographs, carefully choosing the inputs. In many ways, AI art. It becomes the process of selecting. This video pulls from models trained resulting in a kind of algorithmic memory. But she also created a destructed to symbolize forgetting. And finally, we have Claire Silver. Silver has called herself in that she works intentionally. Her process is constantly evolving. She often works masking and transforming. For this portrait, she shifted the opacity, transforming it bit by bit. She likens this technique to her version. Silver feeds AI-generated images, effectively creating new forms for the machine itself. Her work is half master painting. Both old and new. This piece pulls inspiration like John Singer Sargent, almost as an homage. Because different AI models are trained, it's almost like they're all speaking. AI is everywhere now. We are all now collectively, whether we're aware of it or not. If we want to be a part of these worlds. If we want to be culturally literate in these new kinds of images, then looking to the work of artists. We need to brace ourselves, which is only going to multiply all the creative possibilities. Thank you.
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I want you to envision generated by artificial intelligence. When most of us think of AI art, I bet we're imagining something like this. We're all probably picturing Today, with machine learning models like we've seen AI produce everything to imaginary influencers to entirely foreign. AI as a technology is fascinating to us because we're inherently drawn. And with neural networks processing data made by people from every possible millions of images in one simple scan, they can produce visuals yet strikingly unfamiliar. More poetically, AI mirrors us. The world is beginning to change and it's basically divided. There are pessimists who think AI poses. And then optimists who see it. So is it even possible to be truly? How do we begin to critically engage? We can start by looking at some metaphors, narratives and insights from artists who are truly pushing. Let's look to these moments, confusion and wonder, that give us just one small glimpse into the possibilities of encounter. Because as we've seen, this is a very moral and ethical encounter as much as an aesthetic one. Mario Klingemann sold this piece. It is running an AI model from the seventeenth to nineteenth centuries. The model constantly reveals uncanny. Each one is unique, generated in real time. For the viewer, it's almost like peering as it conjures each new portrait. Sofia Crespo's series "Neural Zoo" of the real world to generate unreal sea creatures. Frogs look like flowers. Translucent jellyfish. There’s no one real creature but AI allows us to envision otherworldly. This abstract piece by Sara Ludy. It was augmented to fit a sixteen by nine ratio, using a prompt for "torn edges". Outpainting allows artists beyond the frame using simple. This piece by Ivona Tau. But it is also the work of AI. It's the result of GAN training from the artist's personal. Tau curates from her own photographs, carefully choosing the inputs. In many ways, AI art. It becomes the process of selecting. This video pulls from models trained resulting in a kind of algorithmic memory. But she also created a destructed to symbolize forgetting. And finally, we have Claire Silver. Silver has called herself in that she works intentionally. Her process is constantly evolving. She often works masking and transforming. For this portrait, she shifted the opacity, transforming it bit by bit. She likens this technique to her version. Silver feeds AI-generated images, effectively creating new forms for the machine itself. Her work is half master painting. Both old and new. This piece pulls inspiration like John Singer Sargent, almost as an homage. Because different AI models are trained, it's almost like they're all speaking. AI is everywhere now. We are all now collectively, whether we're aware of it or not. If we want to be a part of these worlds. If we want to be culturally literate in these new kinds of images, then looking to the work of artists. We need to brace ourselves, which is only going to multiply all the creative possibilities. Thank you.
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long_en_36
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Think of a hard choice. It might be between two careers -- artist and accountant -- or places to live -- or even between two people to marry -- you could marry Betty. Or it might be a choice to have an ailing parent move in with you, to raise your child in a religion but leaves you cold. Or whether to donate. Chances are, the hard choice something momentous. Hard choices seem to be occasions for agonizing, hand-wringing. But I think we've. And the role they play in our lives. Understanding hard choices uncovers a hidden power. What makes a choice hard? In any easy choice, one alternative is better than the other. In a hard choice, one alternative is better in some ways, the other alternative. And neither is better. You agonize over whether to stay or uproot your life because staying is better in some ways, moving is better in others, and neither is better. We shouldn't think. Let's say you're deciding. You could have high fiber bran cereal or a chocolate donut. Suppose what matters in the choice. The cereal is better for you, the donut tastes way better, but neither is better, a hard choice. Realizing that small choices may make big hard choices. After all, we manage to figure out. So maybe we can figure out or uproot for the new job in the country. We also shouldn't think because we are stupid. When I graduated from college, I couldn't decide between two careers. I really loved philosophy. There are amazing things and all from the comfort of an armchair. But I came from a modest immigrant family where my idea of luxury was having a pork tongue in my school lunchbox, so the thought of spending my whole life sitting around in armchairs. Well, that struck me as the height. So I got out my yellow pad. I drew a line down the middle. And I tried my best for and against each alternative. I remember thinking to myself, if only I knew what my life. If only God or Netflix would send me a DVD. I'd be set. I'd compare them side by side. I'd see that one was better. And the choice would be easy. But I got no DVD, and because I couldn't, I did what many of us do in hard choices: I took the safest option. Fear of being an unemployed philosopher. And as I discovered, It wasn't who I was. So now I'm a philosopher, and I study hard choices, and I can tell you, while a common motivational default rests on a misconception of them. It's a mistake to think one alternative but we're too stupid to know which, and since we don't know which, we might as well take. Even taking two alternatives side by side with full information. Hard choices are hard. They're hard because there. Now, if there's no best option, if the scales don't tip in favor then surely the alternatives. So maybe the right thing is that they're. But that can't be right. If alternatives are equally good, and it seems a mistake to think, here's how you should. Places to live, people to marry: Flip a coin. There's another reason for thinking that hard choices aren't choices. Suppose you have a choice. You could be an investment banker or a graphic artist. There are a variety of things like the excitement of the work, achieving financial security, having time to raise a family, and so on. Maybe the artist's career of new forms of pictorial expression. Maybe the banking career of new forms of financial manipulation. Imagine the two jobs however you like, so that neither is better than the other. Now suppose we improve one of them, a bit. Suppose the bank, wooing you, adds 500 dollars a month to your salary. Does the extra money now make the banking job? Not necessarily. A higher salary makes the banking job. But it might not be enough to make being a banker. But if an improvement in one of the jobs then the two original jobs. If you start with two things and you improve one of them, it now must be better than the other. That's not the case. So now we've got a puzzle. We've got two jobs. Neither is better than the other. So how are we supposed to choose? Something seems to have gone wrong here. Maybe the choice itself is problematic. But that can't be right. It's not like we're trying to choose. We're weighing the merits, not the merits of the number nine. A comparison of the overall is something we can make, and one we often do make. I think the puzzle arises because of an unreflective assumption.
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Think of a hard choice. It might be between two careers -- artist and accountant -- or places to live -- or even between two people to marry -- you could marry Betty. Or it might be a choice to have an ailing parent move in with you, to raise your child in a religion but leaves you cold. Or whether to donate. Chances are, the hard choice something momentous. Hard choices seem to be occasions for agonizing, hand-wringing. But I think we've. And the role they play in our lives. Understanding hard choices uncovers a hidden power. What makes a choice hard? In any easy choice, one alternative is better than the other. In a hard choice, one alternative is better in some ways, the other alternative. And neither is better. You agonize over whether to stay or uproot your life because staying is better in some ways, moving is better in others, and neither is better. We shouldn't think. Let's say you're deciding. You could have high fiber bran cereal or a chocolate donut. Suppose what matters in the choice. The cereal is better for you, the donut tastes way better, but neither is better, a hard choice. Realizing that small choices may make big hard choices. After all, we manage to figure out. So maybe we can figure out or uproot for the new job in the country. We also shouldn't think because we are stupid. When I graduated from college, I couldn't decide between two careers. I really loved philosophy. There are amazing things and all from the comfort of an armchair. But I came from a modest immigrant family where my idea of luxury was having a pork tongue in my school lunchbox, so the thought of spending my whole life sitting around in armchairs. Well, that struck me as the height. So I got out my yellow pad. I drew a line down the middle. And I tried my best for and against each alternative. I remember thinking to myself, if only I knew what my life. If only God or Netflix would send me a DVD. I'd be set. I'd compare them side by side. I'd see that one was better. And the choice would be easy. But I got no DVD, and because I couldn't, I did what many of us do in hard choices: I took the safest option. Fear of being an unemployed philosopher. And as I discovered, It wasn't who I was. So now I'm a philosopher, and I study hard choices, and I can tell you, while a common motivational default rests on a misconception of them. It's a mistake to think one alternative but we're too stupid to know which, and since we don't know which, we might as well take. Even taking two alternatives side by side with full information. Hard choices are hard. They're hard because there. Now, if there's no best option, if the scales don't tip in favor then surely the alternatives. So maybe the right thing is that they're. But that can't be right. If alternatives are equally good, and it seems a mistake to think, here's how you should. Places to live, people to marry: Flip a coin. There's another reason for thinking that hard choices aren't choices. Suppose you have a choice. You could be an investment banker or a graphic artist. There are a variety of things like the excitement of the work, achieving financial security, having time to raise a family, and so on. Maybe the artist's career of new forms of pictorial expression. Maybe the banking career of new forms of financial manipulation. Imagine the two jobs however you like, so that neither is better than the other. Now suppose we improve one of them, a bit. Suppose the bank, wooing you, adds five hundred dollars a month to your salary. Does the extra money now make the banking job? Not necessarily. A higher salary makes the banking job. But it might not be enough to make being a banker. But if an improvement in one of the jobs then the two original jobs. If you start with two things and you improve one of them, it now must be better than the other. That's not the case. So now we've got a puzzle. We've got two jobs. Neither is better than the other. So how are we supposed to choose? Something seems to have gone wrong here. Maybe the choice itself is problematic. But that can't be right. It's not like we're trying to choose. We're weighing the merits, not the merits of the number nine. A comparison of the overall is something we can make, and one we often do make. I think the puzzle arises because of an unreflective assumption.
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long_en_43
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| 876 |
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I can describe it very simply. I can describe it in my arms, right? So all I did was take my hand and then I move my hand. I can describe it, whoa, in my head, you know? Whoa. Okay. I can do also my shoulder, yeah? It gives me something to do, something to work towards. If I were to take that letter "T" and flatten it down on the floor, here, maybe just off the floor, all of a sudden I could do maybe something with my knee, yeah? Whoa. So if I put the knee and the arms together, I've got something physical, yeah? I can start to build something. So what I'm going to do just for one and a half minutes or so is I'm going to take that concept. I'm going to make something. The dancers behind me are going to interpret it. They're going to snapshot it. They're going to take aspects of it. It's almost like I'm offloading memory and they're holding onto memory. Yeah? We'll see what we come up with. So just have a little watch about how they're accessing this and what they're doing. I'm just going to take this letter "T," the letter "E," and the letter "D," to make something. Okay. Here goes. I have to get myself in the zone. Right. It's a bit of a cross of my arm. All I'm doing is exploring this space of "T" and flashing through it with some action. I'm not remembering what I'm doing. I'm just working on my task. My task is this "T." I'm going to watch it from the side. Whoa. Strike moment. That's it. We're starting to build a phrase. What they're doing, let's see, something like that. What they're doing is grasping aspects of that movement and they're generating it into a phrase. You can see the speed is extremely quick, yeah? I'm not asking them to copy exactly. They're using the information that they receive to generate the beginnings of a phrase. I can watch that and that can tell me something about how it is that they're moving. Yeah, they're super quick, right? I've taken this aspect of TED and translated it into something that's physical. Some dancers, when they're watching action, take the overall shape, the arc of the movement, the kinetic sense of the movement, and use that for memory. Some work very much in specific detail. They start with small little units and build it up. Okay, you've got something? One more thing. So they're solving this problem for me, having a little. They're constructing that phrase. They have something and they're going to hold on to it, yeah? One way of making. That's going to be my beginning in this world premiere. Okay. From there I'm going to do a very different thing. Basically, I'm going to make a duet. I want you to think about them as architectural objects. What they are are just pure lines. They're no longer people. Just pure lines. I'm going to work with them almost as objects to think with, yeah? What I'm thinking about is taking a few physical extensions from the body as I move, and I move them. I do that by suggesting things to them: If, then; if, then. Okay, so here we go. Just grab this arm. Can you place that down into the floor? Yeah, down to the floor. Can you go underneath? Yeah. Cat, can you put leg over that side? Yeah. Can you rotate? Whoom. Just go back to the beginning. Here we go. Ready? And bam, bake. Great. Okay. From there, you're both getting up. You're both getting up. Here we go. Good. Now? Them. So from there, from there, we're both getting up. We're both getting up. Going in this direction. Going underneath. Whoa, whoa, underneath. Whoa, underneath, whoo-um. Yeah? Underneath. Jump. Underneath. Jump. Paolo, kick. Don't care where. Kick. Kick, replace, change a leg. Kick, replace, change the leg. Yeah? Okay? Cat, almost get his head. Almost get his head. Whoaa. Just after it, maybe. Whoaa, whaaay, ooh. Grab her waist. Come up back into her first. Whoom. Spin. Turn her. Whoo-aa. Great. Okay, let's have a little go from the beginning of that. Just, let me slow down here. Fancy having eight. Fancy having eight hours with me in a day. So maybe too much. So here we go. Ready. Nice, good job. Yeah? Okay. Okay, not bad. A little bit more? Yeah. Just a little bit more. Here we go from that place. Separate. Face the front. Separate. Face the front. Imagine that there's a circle in front of you, yeah? Avoid it. Avoid it. Whoom. Kick it out of the way. Kick it out of the way. Throw it into the audience. Whoom. Throw it into the audience again. We've got mental architecture. We're sharing it. Therefore solving a problem.
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I can describe it very simply. I can describe it in my arms, right? So all I did was take my hand and then I move my hand. I can describe it, whoa, in my head, you know? Whoa. Okay. I can do also my shoulder, yeah? It gives me something to do, something to work towards. If I were to take that letter "T" and flatten it down on the floor, here, maybe just off the floor, all of a sudden I could do maybe something with my knee, yeah? Whoa. So if I put the knee and the arms together, I've got something physical, yeah? I can start to build something. So what I'm going to do just for one and a half minutes or so is I'm going to take that concept. I'm going to make something. The dancers behind me are going to interpret it. They're going to snapshot it. They're going to take aspects of it. It's almost like I'm offloading memory and they're holding onto memory. Yeah? We'll see what we come up with. So just have a little watch about how they're accessing this and what they're doing. I'm just going to take this letter "T," the letter "E," and the letter "D," to make something. Okay. Here goes. I have to get myself in the zone. Right. It's a bit of a cross of my arm. All I'm doing is exploring this space of "T" and flashing through it with some action. I'm not remembering what I'm doing. I'm just working on my task. My task is this "T." I'm going to watch it from the side. Whoa. Strike moment. That's it. We're starting to build a phrase. What they're doing, let's see, something like that. What they're doing is grasping aspects of that movement and they're generating it into a phrase. You can see the speed is extremely quick, yeah? I'm not asking them to copy exactly. They're using the information that they receive to generate the beginnings of a phrase. I can watch that and that can tell me something about how it is that they're moving. Yeah, they're super quick, right? I've taken this aspect of TED and translated it into something that's physical. Some dancers, when they're watching action, take the overall shape, the arc of the movement, the kinetic sense of the movement, and use that for memory. Some work very much in specific detail. They start with small little units and build it up. Okay, you've got something? One more thing. So they're solving this problem for me, having a little. They're constructing that phrase. They have something and they're going to hold on to it, yeah? One way of making. That's going to be my beginning in this world premiere. Okay. From there I'm going to do a very different thing. Basically, I'm going to make a duet. I want you to think about them as architectural objects. What they are are just pure lines. They're no longer people. Just pure lines. I'm going to work with them almost as objects to think with, yeah? What I'm thinking about is taking a few physical extensions from the body as I move, and I move them. I do that by suggesting things to them: If, then; if, then. Okay, so here we go. Just grab this arm. Can you place that down into the floor? Yeah, down to the floor. Can you go underneath? Yeah. Cat, can you put leg over that side? Yeah. Can you rotate? Whoom. Just go back to the beginning. Here we go. Ready? And bam, bake. Great. Okay. From there, you're both getting up. You're both getting up. Here we go. Good. Now? Them. So from there, from there, we're both getting up. We're both getting up. Going in this direction. Going underneath. Whoa, whoa, underneath. Whoa, underneath, whoo-um. Yeah? Underneath. Jump. Underneath. Jump. Paolo, kick. Don't care where. Kick. Kick, replace, change a leg. Kick, replace, change the leg. Yeah? Okay? Cat, almost get his head. Almost get his head. Whoaa. Just after it, maybe. Whoaa, whaaay, ooh. Grab her waist. Come up back into her first. Whoom. Spin. Turn her. Whoo-aa. Great. Okay, let's have a little go from the beginning of that. Just, let me slow down here. Fancy having eight. Fancy having eight hours with me in a day. So maybe too much. So here we go. Ready. Nice, good job. Yeah? Okay. Okay, not bad. A little bit more? Yeah. Just a little bit more. Here we go from that place. Separate. Face the front. Separate. Face the front. Imagine that there's a circle in front of you, yeah? Avoid it. Avoid it. Whoom. Kick it out of the way. Kick it out of the way. Throw it into the audience. Whoom. Throw it into the audience again. We've got mental architecture. We're sharing it. Therefore solving a problem.
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long_en_61
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The Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) is a semi-annual academic conference and journal that pairs rigorous research with real-time policy analysis to address the most urgent economic challenges of the day. Working drafts of the papers are presented and discussed at conferences typically held twice each year, and the final versions of the papers and comments along with summaries of the general discussions are published in the journal several months later. America's Rural Future is a bipartisan endeavor with a shared mission to enable rural prosperity in the 21st century by strengthening economic opportunity, resilience, and quality of life across rural America’s many regions and realities. For over two decades, the Center for Universal Education (CUE) has been at the forefront of global policy research focused on inclusive education and skills development. The Energy Security and Climate Initiative at Brookings encourages the development, discussion and dissemination of high-caliber energy and climate research. Data has the power to define and redefine narratives, especially for marginalized communities. This project illustrates how to empower local communities with access to open and transparent public data. Building strong family, school, and community partnerships that support student learning and development and thriving schools and communities. Working toward more gender equal outcomes through collaborative and participatory approaches to education research, policy, and practice. The Global China Project focuses on advancing recommendations for how the United States should respond to China’s actions that implicate key American interests and values. Brookings Metro is helping state and local leaders make the most of generational federal investments to build inclusive regional economies, advance competitiveness and inclusion through infrastructure, and accelerate equitable climate action. The Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors analyzes the behavior of international nonstate armed actors to inform and prepare policymakers to address emerging and persistent threats. The John Hazen White Global Manufacturing Initiative seeks to address some of the most pressing challenges facing the manufacturing industry, including those related to energy costs, regulation, standard-setting processes, and workforce development. A global network reimagining education systems for all children and young people around the world. The Learning and Action Alliance for Girls’ Agency (LAAGA) envisions a world that values the knowledge and dignity of girls and young women, listens to their voices, and supports them in taking action to shape their own lives and those of their communities. Grounded in rigorous evidence and field work, the LTRC Initiative is a global initiative from The Brookings Institution and Results for Development aiming to craft and disseminate effective practices for reducing corruption along the natural resource value chain. The Local Leadership on the Sustainable Development Goals project explores the bottom-up approach cities and communities are taking to drive local progress that contributes to global change. The Millions Learning project at the Center for Universal Education focuses on scaling quality education innovations and initiatives for all children and youth. Working so education systems globally provide a breadth of skills and learning opportunities that support all children and young people to thrive and reach their full potential. Brookings Metro is bringing together government, business, civic, and community leaders, as well as policy advocates and technical experts, to find the most effective and equitable ways cities and regions can rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions while helping our communities become more resilient to the impacts of a changing climate.
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The Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) is a semi-annual academic conference and journal that pairs rigorous research with real-time policy analysis to address the most urgent economic challenges of the day. Working drafts of the papers are presented and discussed at conferences typically held twice each year, and the final versions of the papers and comments along with summaries of the general discussions are published in the journal several months later. America's Rural Future is a bipartisan endeavor with a shared mission to enable rural prosperity in the twenty-first century by strengthening economic opportunity, resilience, and quality of life across rural America’s many regions and realities. For over two decades, the Center for Universal Education (CUE) has been at the forefront of global policy research focused on inclusive education and skills development. The Energy Security and Climate Initiative at Brookings encourages the development, discussion and dissemination of high-caliber energy and climate research. Data has the power to define and redefine narratives, especially for marginalized communities. This project illustrates how to empower local communities with access to open and transparent public data. Building strong family, school, and community partnerships that support student learning and development and thriving schools and communities. Working toward more gender equal outcomes through collaborative and participatory approaches to education research, policy, and practice. The Global China Project focuses on advancing recommendations for how the United States should respond to China’s actions that implicate key American interests and values. Brookings Metro is helping state and local leaders make the most of generational federal investments to build inclusive regional economies, advance competitiveness and inclusion through infrastructure, and accelerate equitable climate action. The Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors analyzes the behavior of international nonstate armed actors to inform and prepare policymakers to address emerging and persistent threats. The John Hazen White Global Manufacturing Initiative seeks to address some of the most pressing challenges facing the manufacturing industry, including those related to energy costs, regulation, standard-setting processes, and workforce development. A global network reimagining education systems for all children and young people around the world. The Learning and Action Alliance for Girls’ Agency (LAAGA) envisions a world that values the knowledge and dignity of girls and young women, listens to their voices, and supports them in taking action to shape their own lives and those of their communities. Grounded in rigorous evidence and field work, the LTRC Initiative is a global initiative from The Brookings Institution and Results for Development aiming to craft and disseminate effective practices for reducing corruption along the natural resource value chain. The Local Leadership on the Sustainable Development Goals project explores the bottom-up approach cities and communities are taking to drive local progress that contributes to global change. The Millions Learning project at the Center for Universal Education focuses on scaling quality education innovations and initiatives for all children and youth. Working so education systems globally provide a breadth of skills and learning opportunities that support all children and young people to thrive and reach their full potential. Brookings Metro is bringing together government, business, civic, and community leaders, as well as policy advocates and technical experts, to find the most effective and equitable ways cities and regions can rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions while helping our communities become more resilient to the impacts of a changing climate.
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long_en_27
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talk_en
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Let me take you on a journey, a journey. Let me take you on a journey, a journey of regenerating dirt into. Of regenerating dirt into soil. My career began in soil. My career began in 1983 when I moved on to my in-laws. 1983 when I moved on to my in-laws farming operation. I was influenc by farming operation. I was influenc by college, by land grant college, by land grant universities, by the current Farm program. Universities by the current Farm program. By years of, by years of tradition and by the large, tradition and by the large agrochemical industrial, agrochemical industrial mindset in. Mindset in 1993 immediately after, uh, my wife and I. 1993 immediately after, uh, my wife and I purchased the ranch. I started down a purchased the ranch. I started down a path of noil. I bought my first noil path of noil. I bought my first noil drill, sold all illage equipment. I was drill sold all illage equipment. I was committed. 199 four came along. We had committed. 199 four came along. We had switched to 100% no tail. We had a pretty switched to 100% no tail. We had a pretty good crop and I thought, boy, this is easy. Good crop and I thought, boy, this is easy. Well, 1995 came along the day before I. Well, 1995 came along the day before I was going to start combining 12200 Acres. Was going to start combining 12200 Acres of spring wheat. We lost our entire crop of spring wheat. We lost our entire crop in a hail storm that was pretty. In a hail storm that was pretty devastating for a young family starting. Devastating for a young family starting out. We weren't able to pay the bank back out. We weren't able to pay the bank back the operating loan. 1996 came along. I the operating loan 1996 came along. I started to diversify the rotation a started to diversify the rotation a little bit. Lo and behold we lost 100% of little bit.
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Let me take you on a journey, a journey. Let me take you on a journey, a journey of regenerating dirt into. Of regenerating dirt into soil. My career began in soil. My career began in nineteen eighty three when I moved on to my in-laws. nineteen eighty three when I moved on to my in-laws farming operation. I was influenc by farming operation. I was influenc by college, by land grant college, by land grant universities, by the current Farm program. Universities by the current Farm program. By years of, by years of tradition and by the large, tradition and by the large agrochemical industrial, agrochemical industrial mindset in. Mindset in nineteen ninety three immediately after, uh, my wife and I. nineteen ninety three immediately after, uh, my wife and I purchased the ranch. I started down a purchased the ranch. I started down a path of noil. I bought my first noil path of noil. I bought my first noil drill, sold all illage equipment. I was drill sold all illage equipment. I was committed. one hundred ninety nine four came along. We had committed. one hundred ninety nine four came along. We had switched to one hundred percent no tail. We had a pretty switched to one hundred percent no tail. We had a pretty good crop and I thought, boy, this is easy. Good crop and I thought, boy, this is easy. Well, nineteen ninety five came along the day before I. Well, nineteen ninety five came along the day before I was going to start combining twelve thousand two hundred Acres. Was going to start combining twelve thousand two hundred Acres of spring wheat. We lost our entire crop of spring wheat. We lost our entire crop in a hail storm that was pretty. In a hail storm that was pretty devastating for a young family starting. Devastating for a young family starting out. We weren't able to pay the bank back out. We weren't able to pay the bank back the operating loan. one thousand nine hundred ninety six came along. I the operating loan one thousand nine hundred ninety six came along. I started to diversify the rotation a started to diversify the rotation a little bit. Lo and behold we lost one hundred percent of little bit.
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long_en_76
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The second perspective regards the use of the NSFR as a stand-alone macro-prudential tool, together with its potential trigger mechanism and its use in the current low yield environment. The securitisation market seized up with the onset of the financial crisis and has remained severely impaired since then. Many factors are deemed to be causing this stagnation, including poor investor sentiment, unfavourable transaction economics, a poor macroeconomic environment and regulatory concerns. The forthcoming Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) will introduce a bail-in tool in all Member States by 1 January 2016 at the latest. The bail-in tool will enable resolution authorities to write down or convert into equity the claims of a broad range of creditors in resolution. This tool will be essential to achieve orderly resolution without exposing taxpayers to losses, while ensuring continuity of critical functions to avoid a serious disturbance in the financial system and the economy as a whole. As part of the phase-in of Basel III risk-weighted capital and leverage requirements, there is a potential for growth in the use of hybrid debt instruments.
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The second perspective regards the use of the NSFR as a stand-alone macro-prudential tool, together with its potential trigger mechanism and its use in the current low yield environment. The securitisation market seized up with the onset of the financial crisis and has remained severely impaired since then. Many factors are deemed to be causing this stagnation, including poor investor sentiment, unfavourable transaction economics, a poor macroeconomic environment and regulatory concerns. The forthcoming Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) will introduce a bail-in tool in all Member States by one January two thousand sixteen at the latest. The bail-in tool will enable resolution authorities to write down or convert into equity the claims of a broad range of creditors in resolution. This tool will be essential to achieve orderly resolution without exposing taxpayers to losses, while ensuring continuity of critical functions to avoid a serious disturbance in the financial system and the economy as a whole. As part of the phase-in of Basel III risk-weighted capital and leverage requirements, there is a potential for growth in the use of hybrid debt instruments.
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long_en_24
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What can we learn from children? They're fiercely loyal to their friends, fast to defend, quick to apologize and swift to forgive. But as a past kindergarten teacher -- always a kindergarten teacher at heart -- I want to share with you a surprising lesson I learned from them. I love human behaviors -- how we act differently in different. And these cute five-year-olds and the perfect height and almost a competitive were so interesting. My first class was called a Mars class. I had 10 students, and each were so full of character. But there was this one kid. Let's call him Sam. Sam behaved like he forgot. He was so independent. Not only did he know but he knew how to tie. He also never took home a dirty thermos, because he would clean it after his lunch. And if something happened he would do so very quietly. He didn't ask for help much himself, but he was the one help on things like, can he help them finish their kimchi? He didn't like showing and came across as "the cool kid." If you gave him a good-morning hug, he would roll his eyes and make a funny face but also stand there and wait. He was so smart and reliable that even I would forget. As a novice teacher, I spent a lot of time observing how more experienced teachers. And I noticed something very peculiar. Oftentimes when kids fall, they don't start crying immediately. They would stand up, puzzled, as if trying to make up their mind -- you know, "What just happened?" "Is this a big enough deal for me to cry? Does this hurt? What's going on?" Usually kids will be OK one that they trust. Eyes lock, and then. When I noticed this, because to me, that meant and had proven that you're capable. You were a hero to them. Weeks went by of me have kids run to them in tears, and I'd watch in jealousy. Oh, was I jealous. I mean, of course but I really wanted that. Yes, I had earned a kid's trust. Then, it finally happened. It was a beautiful day. It was during recess. The kids were playing and I was getting some things laminated -- because teachers in the teacher's room next door. Then I heard a kid yell. So I went out to peak, looked around for Sam, and there he was, looking very puzzled, as if he was trying to add double digits. Then he looked at me, our eyes locked, and then it happened. His lower lip started to tremble and his tiny eyes. Then he burst out in tears and it was glorious. I'll never forget that moment. He let me give him a big hug and it turns out that yes, so there was no one. We checked to make sure and he overcame. It was in that moment, oddly -- it didn't feel like. But rather he was giving me this gift, this opportunity to help him. And it's something very weird. With his vulnerability in coming to me for help you would think that gives me the power, but in that moment, no, it was quite the opposite, and the power shifted even more so to him. Being asked for help is a privilege: a gift for you to do especially when it's coming. With everything I learned or in "teaching" kindergarten, I went to conquer other things in life. Fast-forward nine years, and I landed in an association in a role that works. Working with volunteers but there are some things like how to set boundaries.
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What can we learn from children? They're fiercely loyal to their friends, fast to defend, quick to apologize and swift to forgive. But as a past kindergarten teacher -- always a kindergarten teacher at heart -- I want to share with you a surprising lesson I learned from them. I love human behaviors -- how we act differently in different. And these cute five-year-olds and the perfect height and almost a competitive were so interesting. My first class was called a Mars class. I had ten students, and each were so full of character. But there was this one kid. Let's call him Sam. Sam behaved like he forgot. He was so independent. Not only did he know but he knew how to tie. He also never took home a dirty thermos, because he would clean it after his lunch. And if something happened he would do so very quietly. He didn't ask for help much himself, but he was the one help on things like, can he help them finish their kimchi? He didn't like showing and came across as "the cool kid." If you gave him a good-morning hug, he would roll his eyes and make a funny face but also stand there and wait. He was so smart and reliable that even I would forget. As a novice teacher, I spent a lot of time observing how more experienced teachers. And I noticed something very peculiar. Oftentimes when kids fall, they don't start crying immediately. They would stand up, puzzled, as if trying to make up their mind -- you know, "What just happened?" "Is this a big enough deal for me to cry? Does this hurt? What's going on?" Usually kids will be OK one that they trust. Eyes lock, and then. When I noticed this, because to me, that meant and had proven that you're capable. You were a hero to them. Weeks went by of me have kids run to them in tears, and I'd watch in jealousy. Oh, was I jealous. I mean, of course but I really wanted that. Yes, I had earned a kid's trust. Then, it finally happened. It was a beautiful day. It was during recess. The kids were playing and I was getting some things laminated -- because teachers in the teacher's room next door. Then I heard a kid yell. So I went out to peak, looked around for Sam, and there he was, looking very puzzled, as if he was trying to add double digits. Then he looked at me, our eyes locked, and then it happened. His lower lip started to tremble and his tiny eyes. Then he burst out in tears and it was glorious. I'll never forget that moment. He let me give him a big hug and it turns out that yes, so there was no one. We checked to make sure and he overcame. It was in that moment, oddly -- it didn't feel like. But rather he was giving me this gift, this opportunity to help him. And it's something very weird. With his vulnerability in coming to me for help you would think that gives me the power, but in that moment, no, it was quite the opposite, and the power shifted even more so to him. Being asked for help is a privilege: a gift for you to do especially when it's coming. With everything I learned or in "teaching" kindergarten, I went to conquer other things in life. Fast-forward nine years, and I landed in an association in a role that works. Working with volunteers but there are some things like how to set boundaries.
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| 746 |
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Isn’t learning fun? I absolutely love it. For the past 15 years, I have been. And I've been a coach for the last five. The people that I usually work with and I really love working with these folks because, like them, and I've been to school three times. But I still remember I almost quit, the first semester. By midterm, I was collapsed in my prof's office, in the corner, in the midst of an existential crisis. Things were going horribly. The seminars that I so diligently. Every time we were asked for our responses, everyone else's responses. Mine, by comparison, seemed so basic. And then, I got my first paper back ... and I'd bombed it. Yep. So there I was, in tears, convinced that I was the dumbest. And honestly, I got to tell you. But I had actually staked a lot. I had actually quit my best job to date to pursue my dream. So I wanted my prof’s advice. She handed me some tissues, and instead of agreeing she told me to stick it out. And she said that apparently. Now, I was pretty skeptical, because all the evidence. But figuring she knew I held on. By the end of term, she was right. My grades began to improve, and I learned that my fellow students. Needless to say, this experience. And it has informed how I teach and coach. I've been where my prof was and said the same things. I've also learned a lot since then about the relationship. Nowadays, the mid-career for help with their academic success come to me because they think. And sure, they could use. But for many, that's that's getting in the way. The real issue lies in how they think and what they believe to be true. Now, this might seem like a bold claim. Why aren't skills the real issue? Most of us are very capable learners. The people I work with and experts in their field. They wouldn't be where they are if they didn't know. When I went back, I had been writing in a professional context. My challenge was up-leveling my analytical. Once I was oriented to that gap, My grades began to improve. I see the same thing. Bridging the skill gap. It's the confidence gap. But it needs addressing, because that is what is getting in the way in learning situations. So what's going on? What is happening? Why is it so hard? Based on my experience, adults in learning situations. The first one is that we struggle. For many of us who go back, It's not only been years, maybe decades. We've spent a hot minute or two. All of a sudden, we find ourselves and figure out study habits, and this whole academic writing thing. And then, we have to read critically. It's a lot. And then add to this, we often bring with us that we've been carrying about who we are as learners. In the past, if we thought we've already got bags of doubts and we judge ourselves harshly. Now if you’re thinking, no, no. We struggle because we can and then judge ourselves. And it's difficult. The second challenge that we face is that we spend a lot of time. Now, this is a really human thing to do, and it's a very easy pit to fall into. Because, let's face it, we want to know that we can at least keep up with. But when we compare ourselves it can be paralyzing, because we can fall into thinking. This is especially true when people. We can go from feeling accomplished to feeling behind and confused, in a matter of minutes. And the third challenge that we face is that we have a strong fear of failing. Now, for most of the folks who go back. We're juggling a job and family. Plus, we want to do well, because we're usually there or hit a career goal in some way, to say nothing of the time. So being afraid of failing, well. But it is an obstacle to getting. So those are the challenges. There is good news, though. These can be overcome when we are in learning situations. The first shift is that we really need that our brain is telling us.
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Isn’t learning fun? I absolutely love it. For the past fifteen years, I have been. And I've been a coach for the last five. The people that I usually work with and I really love working with these folks because, like them, and I've been to school three times. But I still remember I almost quit, the first semester. By midterm, I was collapsed in my prof's office, in the corner, in the midst of an existential crisis. Things were going horribly. The seminars that I so diligently. Every time we were asked for our responses, everyone else's responses. Mine, by comparison, seemed so basic. And then, I got my first paper back ... and I'd bombed it. Yep. So there I was, in tears, convinced that I was the dumbest. And honestly, I got to tell you. But I had actually staked a lot. I had actually quit my best job to date to pursue my dream. So I wanted my prof’s advice. She handed me some tissues, and instead of agreeing she told me to stick it out. And she said that apparently. Now, I was pretty skeptical, because all the evidence. But figuring she knew I held on. By the end of term, she was right. My grades began to improve, and I learned that my fellow students. Needless to say, this experience. And it has informed how I teach and coach. I've been where my prof was and said the same things. I've also learned a lot since then about the relationship. Nowadays, the mid-career for help with their academic success come to me because they think. And sure, they could use. But for many, that's that's getting in the way. The real issue lies in how they think and what they believe to be true. Now, this might seem like a bold claim. Why aren't skills the real issue? Most of us are very capable learners. The people I work with and experts in their field. They wouldn't be where they are if they didn't know. When I went back, I had been writing in a professional context. My challenge was up-leveling my analytical. Once I was oriented to that gap, My grades began to improve. I see the same thing. Bridging the skill gap. It's the confidence gap. But it needs addressing, because that is what is getting in the way in learning situations. So what's going on? What is happening? Why is it so hard? Based on my experience, adults in learning situations. The first one is that we struggle. For many of us who go back, It's not only been years, maybe decades. We've spent a hot minute or two. All of a sudden, we find ourselves and figure out study habits, and this whole academic writing thing. And then, we have to read critically. It's a lot. And then add to this, we often bring with us that we've been carrying about who we are as learners. In the past, if we thought we've already got bags of doubts and we judge ourselves harshly. Now if you’re thinking, no, no. We struggle because we can and then judge ourselves. And it's difficult. The second challenge that we face is that we spend a lot of time. Now, this is a really human thing to do, and it's a very easy pit to fall into. Because, let's face it, we want to know that we can at least keep up with. But when we compare ourselves it can be paralyzing, because we can fall into thinking. This is especially true when people. We can go from feeling accomplished to feeling behind and confused, in a matter of minutes. And the third challenge that we face is that we have a strong fear of failing. Now, for most of the folks who go back. We're juggling a job and family. Plus, we want to do well, because we're usually there or hit a career goal in some way, to say nothing of the time. So being afraid of failing, well. But it is an obstacle to getting. So those are the challenges. There is good news, though. These can be overcome when we are in learning situations. The first shift is that we really need that our brain is telling us.
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long_en_52
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| 857 |
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But I wasn't born into hate; in fact, it was quite the opposite. I had a relatively normal childhood. My parents are Italian immigrants who came to the United States and settled on the South Side of Chicago, where they eventually met, and opened a small beauty shop. Right after I was born. They struggled to survive with raising often working seven days a week, 14 hours a day, taking on second and third jobs. And quality time with my parents. Even though I knew growing up, I felt abandoned. I was lonely, and I started to withdraw. And then I started to resent my parents. And as I was growing up, I started to act out to try and get. And one day, when I was 14, I was standing in an alley, and a man who was twice my age, came up to me, and he snatched the joint from my lips. Then he put his hand on my shoulder and he said, "That's what the communists to keep you docile." I was 14 years old. I'd been trading baseball cards. I didn't really know what a Jew was. It's true. And the only communist that I knew in my favorite Rocky movie. And since I'm here I can reveal that I did not even know. Dead serious. But it was as if this man in this alley. For 14 years, I'd felt I had low self-esteem. And frankly, I didn't know or what my purpose was. I was lost. And overnight, because this man and I had grabbed onto that lifeline I had gone from "Joanie Loves Chachi" to full-blown Nazi. Overnight. I started to listen to the rhetoric and believe it. I started to watch very closely would target vulnerable young people and then draw them in that were broken. And then I started to recruit myself. I started to do that by making. And soon, I became the leader that was led by that man in that alley who recruited me that day, who was America's first neo-Nazi skinhead. For the next eight years, I believed the lies that I had been fed. And though I saw I didn't hesitate to blame for what I thought was a white, being promoted by them. I blamed people of color for the crime and violence completely neglecting the fact on a daily basis, and that in many cases, it was white supremacists into the inner cities. And I blamed immigrants for taking jobs from white Americans, completely neglecting the fact that who struggled to survive, despite not getting help. For the next eight years, I saw friends die. I saw others go to prison on countless victims. I heard horrific stories who'd been brutally raped by the very men and I myself committed acts solely for the color of their skin, who they loved, or the god that they prayed to. I stockpiled weapons for what I thought I went to six high schools; I was kicked out of four of them, one of them, twice. And 25 years ago, I wrote that found its way and partially inspired to walk into a sacred Charleston, and senselessly massacre. But then my life changed. At 19 years old, I met a girl who didn't have a racist bone in her body, and I fell in love with her. And at 19, we got married, and we had our first son. And when I held my son in my arms not only did I reconnect at 14 years old, but it also began to challenge the very important things that drew identity, community and purpose -- things that I had been. And now, I struggled with the concept. Was I this neo-Nazi hatemonger, or was I a caring father and husband? Was my community the one to boost my own ego, because I felt self-hatred for myself or was it the one? Was my purpose to scorch the earth or was it to make it? And suddenly, like a ton of bricks hit me, I became very confused with. And if only I'd been brave enough to understand what the struggle was then maybe tragedy. Instead, I did compromise. I took myself off the streets because I was nervous that maybe and they would have to fend. So I stepped back as a leader, and instead I opened a record store that I was going to sell because I was importing it in from Europe. But I knew that if I was just the community would not. So I decided I was going to also like punk rock and heavy metal and hip-hop. And while the white-power music was 75 percent of my gross revenue, because people were driving in from the only store that was selling it, I also had customers come in. And eventually, they started. One day, a young black teen came in, and he was visibly upset. And I decided to ask him what was wrong. And he told me that his mother.
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But I wasn't born into hate; in fact, it was quite the opposite. I had a relatively normal childhood. My parents are Italian immigrants who came to the United States and settled on the South Side of Chicago, where they eventually met, and opened a small beauty shop. Right after I was born. They struggled to survive with raising often working seven days a week, fourteen hours a day, taking on second and third jobs. And quality time with my parents. Even though I knew growing up, I felt abandoned. I was lonely, and I started to withdraw. And then I started to resent my parents. And as I was growing up, I started to act out to try and get. And one day, when I was fourteen, I was standing in an alley, and a man who was twice my age, came up to me, and he snatched the joint from my lips. Then he put his hand on my shoulder and he said, "That's what the communists to keep you docile." I was fourteen years old. I'd been trading baseball cards. I didn't really know what a Jew was. It's true. And the only communist that I knew in my favorite Rocky movie. And since I'm here I can reveal that I did not even know. Dead serious. But it was as if this man in this alley. For fourteen years, I'd felt I had low self-esteem. And frankly, I didn't know or what my purpose was. I was lost. And overnight, because this man and I had grabbed onto that lifeline I had gone from "Joanie Loves Chachi" to full-blown Nazi. Overnight. I started to listen to the rhetoric and believe it. I started to watch very closely would target vulnerable young people and then draw them in that were broken. And then I started to recruit myself. I started to do that by making. And soon, I became the leader that was led by that man in that alley who recruited me that day, who was America's first neo-Nazi skinhead. For the next eight years, I believed the lies that I had been fed. And though I saw I didn't hesitate to blame for what I thought was a white, being promoted by them. I blamed people of color for the crime and violence completely neglecting the fact on a daily basis, and that in many cases, it was white supremacists into the inner cities. And I blamed immigrants for taking jobs from white Americans, completely neglecting the fact that who struggled to survive, despite not getting help. For the next eight years, I saw friends die. I saw others go to prison on countless victims. I heard horrific stories who'd been brutally raped by the very men and I myself committed acts solely for the color of their skin, who they loved, or the god that they prayed to. I stockpiled weapons for what I thought I went to six high schools; i was kicked out of four of them, one of them, twice. And twenty-five years ago, I wrote that found its way and partially inspired to walk into a sacred Charleston, and senselessly massacre. But then my life changed. At nineteen years old, I met a girl who didn't have a racist bone in her body, and I fell in love with her. And at nineteen, we got married, and we had our first son. And when I held my son in my arms not only did I reconnect at fourteen years old, but it also began to challenge the very important things that drew identity, community and purpose -- things that I had been. And now, I struggled with the concept. Was I this neo-Nazi hatemonger, or was I a caring father and husband? Was my community the one to boost my own ego, because I felt self-hatred for myself or was it the one? Was my purpose to scorch the earth or was it to make it? And suddenly, like a ton of bricks hit me, I became very confused with. And if only I'd been brave enough to understand what the struggle was then maybe tragedy. Instead, I did compromise. I took myself off the streets because I was nervous that maybe and they would have to fend. So I stepped back as a leader, and instead I opened a record store that I was going to sell because I was importing it in from Europe. But I knew that if I was just the community would not. So I decided I was going to also like punk rock and heavy metal and hip-hop. And while the white-power music was seventy-five percent of my gross revenue, because people were driving in from the only store that was selling it, I also had customers come in. And eventually, they started. One day, a young black teen came in, and he was visibly upset. And I decided to ask him what was wrong. And he told me that his mother.
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long_en_90
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| 171 |
en
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Systems that can generalize, learn from experience, and adapt to new circumstances have the potential to reach higher levels of performance than systems that must be modified manually to deal with situations their designers did not anticipate. Virtually all high-impact application systems can be more powerful if they can learn from experience. For example, information assistants that can learn will be able to tailor their information-retrieval process to a user’s needs without having to be told exactly what to do; they will instead generalize from previous interactions with the user. Learning skills will enable an intelligent coach system to deal with new types of problems, for example, drawing on its experience in the design of one type of automobile and applying it to the design of another. Networks of robots and computer-based agents in simulated worlds can avoid future coordination problems by learning from their experience in interacting with other robots. Basic research has steadily advanced the fundamental technology of machine learning for more than two decades.
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Systems that can generalize, learn from experience, and adapt to new circumstances have the potential to reach higher levels of performance than systems that must be modified manually to deal with situations their designers did not anticipate. Virtually all high-impact application systems can be more powerful if they can learn from experience. For example, information assistants that can learn will be able to tailor their information-retrieval process to a user’s needs without having to be told exactly what to do; they will instead generalize from previous interactions with the user. Learning skills will enable an intelligent coach system to deal with new types of problems, for example, drawing on its experience in the design of one type of automobile and applying it to the design of another. Networks of robots and computer-based agents in simulated worlds can avoid future coordination problems by learning from their experience in interacting with other robots. Basic research has steadily advanced the fundamental technology of machine learning for more than two decades.
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long_en_84
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| 158 |
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There is a broad consensus that macro stress tests are a useful tool for making such assessments and, accordingly, the authorities in almost all euro area and non-euro area EU Member States in central and eastern Europe have carried out such exercises in the course of 2009. The nature of the stress tests conducted differed across countries, reflecting variations in business cycle developments, as well as differences in specific sources of risk and vulnerability. Nevertheless, the exercises in many countries assessed the sensitivity of non-performing loan rates and capital adequacy ratios to a worsening of economic conditions that was more severe than projected. This box, which draws upon findings published by the national central banks of the EU Member States in this region, summarises the key conclusions of these exercises. Strains in the residential mortgage market in the United States are generally perceived as one of the main triggers of the ongoing financial and economic crisis.
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There is a broad consensus that macro stress tests are a useful tool for making such assessments and, accordingly, the authorities in almost all euro area and non-euro area EU Member States in central and eastern Europe have carried out such exercises in the course of two thousand nine. The nature of the stress tests conducted differed across countries, reflecting variations in business cycle developments, as well as differences in specific sources of risk and vulnerability. Nevertheless, the exercises in many countries assessed the sensitivity of non-performing loan rates and capital adequacy ratios to a worsening of economic conditions that was more severe than projected. This box, which draws upon findings published by the national central banks of the EU Member States in this region, summarises the key conclusions of these exercises. Strains in the residential mortgage market in the United States are generally perceived as one of the main triggers of the ongoing financial and economic crisis.
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long_en_4
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| 754 |
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Well, at the farm, cash is king. It's a business. I'm a farmer myself. I raise cattle, grow corn, I bale hay. But I'm also a banker. And I've financed farmers. I actually had the honor of large and small farmers. Not many farmers there. Well, one thing I can assure you. Profits are very small. You are dependent on the weather, and you don't know. You grow a crop, you don't know the price, you don't know the quantity. So there's no much room for error there. And yet, farming needs to change, if we want to reach the goals of Paris. More than 20 percent actually are emitted by agriculture. This includes deforestation, and let's be sure. Chemical fertilizers, diesel of your tractor. But global farming is also using. Think about it, how much. It's also a major contributor. Add that all together ... quite impactful. However, it's also a big part. Scientists estimate that farmers by means of growing trees. The impact is estimated. Quite something. So if that's the case, why are farmers not rushing? The reality is quite different. First of all, biological. At least five to 10 years to start changing the quality. It takes time to change. Also, biological. They depend on the weather, they depend on fire, rain, drought. Also, we actually have not fully tested all climate-smart agricultural techniques. Some of them have not. Then, you have the cost. When you change, you need more labor, you need more new machines, you need training. So then, you have the consumer. The consumer today is not willing or able. So if you put all this together, effort and money to transition. There is no viable. It costs the farmer more. Meanwhile, at the other side, who didn't change his ways of farming, is enjoying a nice cash flow. I call this the Valley of Death. This transformation is long, and is the best way, actually. As one farmer once said to me, "The best way of guaranteeing my farm is to pay my bills tomorrow." Why should I risk the farm? Would you risk the farm in the transition? Would you risk the farm? Who would risk the farm in the transition? Let's help the farmer, then. Actually, I'm a true believer. I'm a true believer that we should pay the farmer for their investments. We do have the instruments already, that are the carbon. But why are they not scaling? First, we actually or accounting rules. It even goes further. We actually don't know who really owns those carbon. Is it the government? Is it the farmer, or is it the one? We don't know about the price. We don't have a price transparency. It's actually a big Wild West out there. If you want to sell corn, you can get the price immediately. If you want to sell a tonne you actually don't know. You really don't know. And then, we have the discussion. What is that? Carbon and biodiversity are very variable, and they're dependent on weather and fire, so the farmer needs to be protected. We need a good insurance scheme. And last, the government. Governments, please set for us to be able to use those credits. And, very important, Farmers are great stewards of the land, good entrepreneurs, smart operators and want the right conditions to be set. I'm absolutely sure. How do I know that? While I was at Rabobank, I participated in many to support farmers to transition. Some of them failed, some of them were very successful, but all the good ones, involved some form. Let me share with you one I'm pretty proud about, and that's Project Acorn. Acorn was designed to pay for eco services to smallholder farmers. What we have done there is that we used satellite imaging and very simple pictures taken cross that data and calculate. With this calculation, to the international market, through an auction system, and we just sold them. We have been able to obtain. It doesn’t look [like] much, it's quite substantial. Acorn today reaches and has issued 300,000 tonnes of carbon, and is still growing. I think it's an amazing project, and if we could scale this up, customize it to the needs. I think we could accelerate change. But let's be realistic. This is not easy.
|
Well, at the farm, cash is king. It's a business. I'm a farmer myself. I raise cattle, grow corn, I bale hay. But I'm also a banker. And I've financed farmers. I actually had the honor of large and small farmers. Not many farmers there. Well, one thing I can assure you. Profits are very small. You are dependent on the weather, and you don't know. You grow a crop, you don't know the price, you don't know the quantity. So there's no much room for error there. And yet, farming needs to change, if we want to reach the goals of Paris. More than twenty percent actually are emitted by agriculture. This includes deforestation, and let's be sure. Chemical fertilizers, diesel of your tractor. But global farming is also using. Think about it, how much. It's also a major contributor. Add that all together ... quite impactful. However, it's also a big part. Scientists estimate that farmers by means of growing trees. The impact is estimated. Quite something. So if that's the case, why are farmers not rushing? The reality is quite different. First of all, biological. At least five to ten years to start changing the quality. It takes time to change. Also, biological. They depend on the weather, they depend on fire, rain, drought. Also, we actually have not fully tested all climate-smart agricultural techniques. Some of them have not. Then, you have the cost. When you change, you need more labor, you need more new machines, you need training. So then, you have the consumer. The consumer today is not willing or able. So if you put all this together, effort and money to transition. There is no viable. It costs the farmer more. Meanwhile, at the other side, who didn't change his ways of farming, is enjoying a nice cash flow. I call this the Valley of Death. This transformation is long, and is the best way, actually. As one farmer once said to me, "The best way of guaranteeing my farm is to pay my bills tomorrow." Why should I risk the farm? Would you risk the farm in the transition? Would you risk the farm? Who would risk the farm in the transition? Let's help the farmer, then. Actually, I'm a true believer. I'm a true believer that we should pay the farmer for their investments. We do have the instruments already, that are the carbon. But why are they not scaling? First, we actually or accounting rules. It even goes further. We actually don't know who really owns those carbon. Is it the government? Is it the farmer, or is it the one? We don't know about the price. We don't have a price transparency. It's actually a big Wild West out there. If you want to sell corn, you can get the price immediately. If you want to sell a tonne you actually don't know. You really don't know. And then, we have the discussion. What is that? Carbon and biodiversity are very variable, and they're dependent on weather and fire, so the farmer needs to be protected. We need a good insurance scheme. And last, the government. Governments, please set for us to be able to use those credits. And, very important, Farmers are great stewards of the land, good entrepreneurs, smart operators and want the right conditions to be set. I'm absolutely sure. How do I know that? While I was at Rabobank, I participated in many to support farmers to transition. Some of them failed, some of them were very successful, but all the good ones, involved some form. Let me share with you one I'm pretty proud about, and that's Project Acorn. Acorn was designed to pay for eco services to smallholder farmers. What we have done there is that we used satellite imaging and very simple pictures taken cross that data and calculate. With this calculation, to the international market, through an auction system, and we just sold them. We have been able to obtain. It doesn’t look [like] much, it's quite substantial. Acorn today reaches and has issued three hundred thousand tonnes of carbon, and is still growing. I think it's an amazing project, and if we could scale this up, customize it to the needs. I think we could accelerate change. But let's be realistic. This is not easy.
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long_en_69
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| 307 |
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As the structures of financial instruments have become increasingly complex, market participants need instruments which allow them to trade volatility in order to hedge structured transactions or to take purely directional views on volatility. While "plain vanilla" options contracts on underlying assets provide exposure to the volatility of the underlying asset, they are impure for hedging or taking positions on volatility because they simultaneously provide exposure to the direction of the underlying asset. Although hedging options according to the BlackScholes prescription can remove the exposure to the underlying asset, so-called delta hedging is at best inaccurate because many of the Black-Scholes assumptions are violated in practice. For instance, volatility cannot be accurately estimated, financial assets cannot be traded continuously, transaction costs cannot be ignored, markets sometimes move discontinuously, and liquidity is often a problem. A feature of credit derivatives markets over recent years has been constant product innovation. Several recent products have evolved out of a risk management technique pioneered in the 1960s known as CPPI, a strategy designed to leverage investments while providing a measure of downside protection. CPDOs represent one of the most recent additions in this regard, and were introduced for the first time in summer 2006. A CPDO is a fully funded credit structure that combines high leverage in the CDS market with a mechanism to place a part of an excess yield in a reserve in order to secure future payments and absorb losses. This Box describes the basics of the CPDO structure, as well as the possible impacts on credit markets and the risks associated with the structure. Market intelligence indicates that financial market participants have rarely seen liquidity in global financial market as abundant as since 2003 and that an almost insatiable appetite has existed among investors for some time for privately issued assets, especially risky credit products.
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As the structures of financial instruments have become increasingly complex, market participants need instruments which allow them to trade volatility in order to hedge structured transactions or to take purely directional views on volatility. While "plain vanilla" options contracts on underlying assets provide exposure to the volatility of the underlying asset, they are impure for hedging or taking positions on volatility because they simultaneously provide exposure to the direction of the underlying asset. Although hedging options according to the BlackScholes prescription can remove the exposure to the underlying asset, so-called delta hedging is at best inaccurate because many of the Black-Scholes assumptions are violated in practice. For instance, volatility cannot be accurately estimated, financial assets cannot be traded continuously, transaction costs cannot be ignored, markets sometimes move discontinuously, and liquidity is often a problem. A feature of credit derivatives markets over recent years has been constant product innovation. Several recent products have evolved out of a risk management technique pioneered in the nineteen sixties known as CPPI, a strategy designed to leverage investments while providing a measure of downside protection. CPDOs represent one of the most recent additions in this regard, and were introduced for the first time in summer two thousand six. A CPDO is a fully funded credit structure that combines high leverage in the CDS market with a mechanism to place a part of an excess yield in a reserve in order to secure future payments and absorb losses. This Box describes the basics of the CPDO structure, as well as the possible impacts on credit markets and the risks associated with the structure. Market intelligence indicates that financial market participants have rarely seen liquidity in global financial market as abundant as since two thousand three and that an almost insatiable appetite has existed among investors for some time for privately issued assets, especially risky credit products.
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Over the few months following the default of Lehman Brothers, conditions in the European corporate bond market deteriorated significantly. This box, after discussing the concept and the main drivers of the bond-CDS basis, examines why this measure may be a good indicator of overall conditions in the corporate bond market. In view of the persistence of the negative basis in the investment-grade segment of the market, the box also discusses the main reasons for the failure of arbitrage and its consequences for the investors that used basis-related strategies. Since August 2007 the euro money market has experienced severe disruptions as a result of contagion from shocks in other market segments, an increased preference for liquidity and heightened counterparty credit risk concerns. However, changes in liquidity conditions have not been homogeneous across the various segments of the euro money market. This box presents a simple "barometer" which can help in the monitoring of market conditions across those segments. Following the change to a fixed rate tender procedure with full allotment as of the maintenance period beginning on 8 October 2008, aggregate liquidity provision in Eurosystem refinancing operations increased significantly, exceeding the strict needs resulting from autonomous factors and reserve requirements. The aggregate excess liquidity has been reflected in an elevated recourse to the deposit facility of the Eurosystem. This box discusses some factors that may help to explain the demand for excess liquidity by focusing on the financial stability dimension of the operational framework for monetary policy implementation in times of financial market stress. In fact, the empirical evidence suggests that, in addition to partially taking over the intermediation of liquidity shocks from the market, the Eurosystem has offered banks insurance against liquidity uncertainty and has therefore contributed actively to operational and financial stability.
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Over the few months following the default of Lehman Brothers, conditions in the European corporate bond market deteriorated significantly. This box, after discussing the concept and the main drivers of the bond CDS basis, examines why this measure may be a good indicator of overall conditions in the corporate bond market. In view of the persistence of the negative basis in the investment grade segment of the market, the box also discusses the main reasons for the failure of arbitrage and its consequences for the investors that used basis related strategies. Since August two thousand seven the euro money market has experienced severe disruptions as a result of contagion from shocks in other market segments, an increased preference for liquidity and heightened counterparty credit risk concerns. However, changes in liquidity conditions have not been homogeneous across the various segments of the euro money market. This box presents a simple "barometer" which can help in the monitoring of market conditions across those segments. Following the change to a fixed rate tender procedure with full allotment as of the maintenance period beginning on eight October two thousand eight, aggregate liquidity provision in Eurosystem refinancing operations increased significantly, exceeding the strict needs resulting from autonomous factors and reserve requirements. The aggregate excess liquidity has been reflected in an elevated recourse to the deposit facility of the Eurosystem. This box discusses some factors that may help to explain the demand for excess liquidity by focusing on the financial stability dimension of the operational framework for monetary policy implementation in times of financial market stress. In fact, the empirical evidence suggests that, in addition to partially taking over the intermediation of liquidity shocks from the market, the Eurosystem has offered banks insurance against liquidity uncertainty and has therefore contributed actively to operational and financial stability.
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When I was hired, I specifically chose to work at McPherson because I understand what it's like where substance use disorder. And I wanted to use as a guide for my work. But before I get to that, I want to share what it was like to witness this epidemic. Like many other communities, We began to take notice addresses from nearby and upstate counties and then slowly out-of-state ones. People from Arkansas, coming to Philadelphia for cheap heroin. People began to linger longer, causing us to pay than to our daily responsibilities because it was an accessible place. One day our toilet clogged. We were forced to close because the culprit of the clog. For a while prior to that incident, we had been asking for a sharps and after that, the library administration along with hiring bathroom monitors. And as the weather warmed, we struggled to respond. People began camping out. You could walk outside to find multiple groups of people and children playing in between them. The amount of needles collected from 100 to 300 to 500 to 800, to over 1,000, with many found on our front steps. Then there were the overdoses. So many occurred outside in the park, some inside the library. Sterling, our guard, would spend his time and throughout the park, constantly making sure everyone was safe, because at times, our fear of having someone. One overdose in particular. So the library was full of kids. And in all of that, we heard the thud. When we opened the door, He was pulled out kids, teens, adults, families. Someone on staff called 911. Someone else escorted the kids. Somebody went to flag down. And the rest of us -- we just waited. This had become our overdose drill because at the time. So we waited and we watched seize up. He was dying. I don't know how many of you, but it's horrific. Because you know the gasping for air, the loss of color in someone's face, is a timer running down. But luckily for this man, the ambulance arrived and he received a dose. And I remember he jolted and he pulled the needle out, and he told the paramedics to back off. And then he stood up, and he walked out. And we -- we went back to work. Because people were still asking, kids still needed help with their homework, and this was our job -- our purpose. I think that incident stays with me. It made me feel helpless. And it was that feeling of helplessness. Before I was born, It made our lives chaotic and unstable: promises being made and constantly broken, their fighting, the weight of our secret kept so much. Every time we'd be dropped off I'd be stuck on the thought. Every time we'd be left in a car, I'd cry. And every time I saw those El tracks -- the same ones I take from the backseat of a car, I'd be angry, because even kids know when their parents. There was so little I could do that that feeling of helplessness. I struggled in school, struggled to read. I was prone to anger and depression. When I was 11 years old, which shortly after led to my own. I convinced myself that my parents' past. But eventually both of my parents and maintained recovery from opioid use. And their strength and their commitment provided support and stability. And it was those personal experiences Choosing to be a librarian and choosing to be at McPherson was me letting go and finding ways. And one way to provide support was learning how to administer Narcan. Public libraries respond and not knowing how to utilize Narcan was a disservice. We were on the frontlines and desperately needed. So finally in late February of 2017, after much advocating, we finally received training. And about a month of so later, I utilized Narcan for the first time. It was after school again, and Teddy came into the library and said someone was overdosing. Someone on staff called 911 again, and I grabbed the Narcan kit. The woman was barely in her 20s. Her friend was frantically in hopes of reviving her. I administered the Narcan nasally, and thankfully she came to. But before the ambulance arrived, she and her friend ran off. And when I finally turned around, I saw the kids -- kids that come into the library some that I have known for years -- standing on the steps of the building. They saw everything. And they didn't seem.
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When I was hired, I specifically chose to work at McPherson because I understand what it's like where substance use disorder. And I wanted to use as a guide for my work. But before I get to that, I want to share what it was like to witness this epidemic. Like many other communities, We began to take notice addresses from nearby and upstate counties and then slowly out-of-state ones. People from Arkansas, coming to Philadelphia for cheap heroin. People began to linger longer, causing us to pay than to our daily responsibilities because it was an accessible place. One day our toilet clogged. We were forced to close because the culprit of the clog. For a while prior to that incident, we had been asking for a sharps and after that, the library administration along with hiring bathroom monitors. And as the weather warmed, we struggled to respond. People began camping out. You could walk outside to find multiple groups of people and children playing in between them. The amount of needles collected from one hundred to three hundred to five hundred to eight hundred, to over one thousand, with many found on our front steps. Then there were the overdoses. So many occurred outside in the park, some inside the library. Sterling, our guard, would spend his time and throughout the park, constantly making sure everyone was safe, because at times, our fear of having someone. One overdose in particular. So the library was full of kids. And in all of that, we heard the thud. When we opened the door, He was pulled out kids, teens, adults, families. Someone on staff called nine hundred eleven. Someone else escorted the kids. Somebody went to flag down. And the rest of us -- we just waited. This had become our overdose drill because at the time. So we waited and we watched seize up. He was dying. I don't know how many of you, but it's horrific. Because you know the gasping for air, the loss of color in someone's face, is a timer running down. But luckily for this man, the ambulance arrived and he received a dose. And I remember he jolted and he pulled the needle out, and he told the paramedics to back off. And then he stood up, and he walked out. And we -- we went back to work. Because people were still asking, kids still needed help with their homework, and this was our job -- our purpose. I think that incident stays with me. It made me feel helpless. And it was that feeling of helplessness. Before I was born, It made our lives chaotic and unstable: promises being made and constantly broken, their fighting, the weight of our secret kept so much. Every time we'd be dropped off I'd be stuck on the thought. Every time we'd be left in a car, I'd cry. And every time I saw those El tracks -- the same ones I take from the backseat of a car, I'd be angry, because even kids know when their parents. There was so little I could do that that feeling of helplessness. I struggled in school, struggled to read. I was prone to anger and depression. When I was eleven years old, which shortly after led to my own. I convinced myself that my parents' past. But eventually both of my parents and maintained recovery from opioid use. And their strength and their commitment provided support and stability. And it was those personal experiences Choosing to be a librarian and choosing to be at McPherson was me letting go and finding ways. And one way to provide support was learning how to administer Narcan. Public libraries respond and not knowing how to utilize Narcan was a disservice. We were on the frontlines and desperately needed. So finally in late February of two thousand seventeen, after much advocating, we finally received training. And about a month of so later, I utilized Narcan for the first time. It was after school again, and Teddy came into the library and said someone was overdosing. Someone on staff called nine one one again, and I grabbed the Narcan kit. The woman was barely in her twenties. Her friend was frantically in hopes of reviving her. I administered the Narcan nasally, and thankfully she came to. But before the ambulance arrived, she and her friend ran off. And when I finally turned around, I saw the kids -- kids that come into the library some that I have known for years -- standing on the steps of the building. They saw everything. And they didn't seem.
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There's also Grameen in Bangladesh, the Self-employed founded by activist Ela Bhatt. 100 percent-for-purpose organizations combine the best of the for-profit. They can be organizations truly devoted while still operating sustainably. They also avoid the pitfalls constantly having to beg for money or having to put shareholder no matter the cost. This is one of my favorite. So how do you make 100 percent-for-purpose? I told you this was about salad dressing. And so, just like any good salad dressing. First ingredient: make a profit. Sounds obvious. But we know many companies who never have. And listen, this is not about. But you have to remember, if your goal you want a good business and product with steady, positive cash flow. From Australia, set out to create a from the ground up. They founded an event ticketing company called Humanitix. Not because they thought. On the contrary, because people hate ticketing platforms, with high fees, bad customer service. One of these companies with the US Justice Department. Honestly, I don't know which one is worse. People thought Adam and Josh because they built without taking one dollar. But I’m happy to say that in eight years, they're profitable close to seven million dollars. Which brings me to ingredient number two. Raise money right. You can’t give away 100 percent if you give away control to investors. Yvon Chouinard, the founder of Patagonia, declared Earth to be the company's, to great fanfare. He could only do this for over 50 years. And let me be clear. This doesn’t mean you can’t raise money. By definition, you’re trying. That makes you attractive. You can also tap into sources, grants and impact investments, for example. All of this brings me reverse the governance. People often assume that as I head up I report into the food company CEO. It's actually the opposite. When Paul died in 2008, he gifted the food company. That was heavily discouraged at the time. Congress had passed a law in 1969, making it hard for foundations in for-profit businesses to close a tax loophole. Newman's Own worked with legislators to support the passing of paving the way for this. And allowing nonprofits under the right circumstances. To align with the we keep the food company with two distinct boards. Because the governance is reversed, the food company's board. We have a common brand, but the foundation's dollars and the food company can't tell us. And unlike a number we don't have an endowment. Why? First, because Paul said, He didn't say, let's hoard it first and then just sit there, giving away the 5-percent minimum. Overall, I love being endowment-free, because our donors who buy Newman’s Own products. And we give away because children who face adversity. Fourth and final ingredient. Forget the competition. They are playing by the rules. You have to trust that being is the way to win over customers. Yes, you can't give company stock options, but you can provide your employees and a real sense of purpose. And that’s what 95 percent of college. You might not have the dollars and you can't slash your prices so low if they're willing to do that. But 66 percent of customers, say they would switch to a new product. Most importantly, remember the end game. Success is about being all in for impact and showing everyone to do business and capitalism. Imagine what we could do if 10. Or 10 percent of global companies. The last thing I'll say is this. Paul used to tell the kids with cancer to go raise a little hell. And perhaps a little hell-raising to fix this absurd world where some people and just a mile away, others have to send. I invite you all to join me. Go create, convert and work with. The world cannot wait. We can and must build organizations and in doing so, we can use in service of justice. Thank you.
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There's also Grameen in Bangladesh, the Self-employed founded by activist Ela Bhatt. one hundred percent-for-purpose organizations combine the best of the for-profit. They can be organizations truly devoted while still operating sustainably. They also avoid the pitfalls constantly having to beg for money or having to put shareholder no matter the cost. This is one of my favorite. So how do you make one hundred percent-for-purpose? I told you this was about salad dressing. And so, just like any good salad dressing. First ingredient: make a profit. Sounds obvious. But we know many companies who never have. And listen, this is not about. But you have to remember, if your goal you want a good business and product with steady, positive cash flow. From Australia, set out to create a from the ground up. They founded an event ticketing company called Humanitix. Not because they thought. On the contrary, because people hate ticketing platforms, with high fees, bad customer service. One of these companies with the US Justice Department. Honestly, I don't know which one is worse. People thought Adam and Josh because they built without taking one dollar. But I’m happy to say that in eight years, they're profitable close to seven million dollars. Which brings me to ingredient number two. Raise money right. You can’t give away one hundred percent if you give away control to investors. Yvon Chouinard, the founder of Patagonia, declared Earth to be the company's, to great fanfare. He could only do this for over fifty years. And let me be clear. This doesn’t mean you can’t raise money. By definition, you’re trying. That makes you attractive. You can also tap into sources, grants and impact investments, for example. All of this brings me reverse the governance. People often assume that as I head up I report into the food company CEO. It's actually the opposite. When Paul died in two thousand eight, he gifted the food company. That was heavily discouraged at the time. Congress had passed a law in nineteen sixty nine, making it hard for foundations in for-profit businesses to close a tax loophole. Newman's Own worked with legislators to support the passing of paving the way for this. And allowing nonprofits under the right circumstances. To align with the we keep the food company with two distinct boards. Because the governance is reversed, the food company's board. We have a common brand, but the foundation's dollars and the food company can't tell us. And unlike a number we don't have an endowment. Why? First, because Paul said, He didn't say, let's hoard it first and then just sit there, giving away the five-percent minimum. Overall, I love being endowment-free, because our donors who buy Newman’s Own products. And we give away because children who face adversity. Fourth and final ingredient. Forget the competition. They are playing by the rules. You have to trust that being is the way to win over customers. Yes, you can't give company stock options, but you can provide your employees and a real sense of purpose. And that’s what ninety-five percent of college. You might not have the dollars and you can't slash your prices so low if they're willing to do that. But sixty-six percent of customers, say they would switch to a new product. Most importantly, remember the end game. Success is about being all in for impact and showing everyone to do business and capitalism. Imagine what we could do if ten. Or ten percent of global companies. The last thing I'll say is this. Paul used to tell the kids with cancer to go raise a little hell. And perhaps a little hell-raising to fix this absurd world where some people and just a mile away, others have to send. I invite you all to join me. Go create, convert and work with. The world cannot wait. We can and must build organizations and in doing so, we can use in service of justice. Thank you.
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Therefore, tackling the persistent asset quality problems, along with the completion of the banking union, would seem to be pivotal to reaping the potential benefits of cross-border banking within the euro area in terms of risk diversification and risk-sharing. Effectively functioning repo markets are of key importance for both financial stability and monetary policy, but the excessive use of repos may also be a source of systemic risk as witnessed during the recent financial crisis. Regulatory reforms introduced since the start of the crisis have aimed to contain systemic risk related to the excessive build-up of leverage and unstable funding, but recently some concerns have been raised about their potential effects on the functioning of the repo market. This special feature presents new evidence on the drivers of banks’ activity in the repo market with respect to regulatory reforms. In addition, it takes a closer look at the repo market structure and pricing dynamics, in particular around banks’ balance sheet reporting dates. While the observed volatility around reporting dates suggests that the calculation methodology for some regulatory metrics should be reviewed, overall, the findings indicate that unintended consequences of regulatory reforms on the provision of repo services by euro area banks have not been material. The reduction in asset price volatility in recent years has taken place in tandem with investors lowering the premia required for lower-rated assets. The current favourable market sentiment could however change abruptly if, for instance, investors were to reassess the outlook for growth or monetary policy. Potential surges in asset price volatility could be amplified by: (i) investors selling off assets perceived as overvalued; (ii) the high levels of corporate leverage; and/or (iii) a rapid unwinding of market positions that benefit from low volatility. Low volatility in financial markets is therefore being closely monitored by financial stability authorities, as it may mask an underpricing of risks and a build-up of financial imbalances.
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Therefore, tackling the persistent asset quality problems, along with the completion of the banking union, would seem to be pivotal to reaping the potential benefits of cross-border banking within the euro area in terms of risk diversification and risk-sharing. Effectively functioning repo markets are of key importance for both financial stability and monetary policy, but the excessive use of repos may also be a source of systemic risk as witnessed during the recent financial crisis. Regulatory reforms introduced since the start of the crisis have aimed to contain systemic risk related to the excessive build-up of leverage and unstable funding, but recently some concerns have been raised about their potential effects on the functioning of the repo market. This special feature presents new evidence on the drivers of banks’ activity in the repo market with respect to regulatory reforms. In addition, it takes a closer look at the repo market structure and pricing dynamics, in particular around banks’ balance sheet reporting dates. While the observed volatility around reporting dates suggests that the calculation methodology for some regulatory metrics should be reviewed, overall, the findings indicate that unintended consequences of regulatory reforms on the provision of repo services by euro area banks have not been material. The reduction in asset price volatility in recent years has taken place in tandem with investors lowering the premia required for lower-rated assets. The current favourable market sentiment could however change abruptly if, for instance, investors were to reassess the outlook for growth or monetary policy. Potential surges in asset price volatility could be amplified by: (one) investors selling off assets perceived as overvalued; (two) the high levels of corporate leverage; and/or (three) a rapid unwinding of market positions that benefit from low volatility. Low volatility in financial markets is therefore being closely monitored by financial stability authorities, as it may mask an underpricing of risks and a build-up of financial imbalances.
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At the same time, potential shocks could be transmitted through indirect channels to euro area banks via EMEs’ trade links with euro area countries and a broader financial market confidence channel stemming from uncertainty about growth prospects in EMEs. Such indirect channels are complex. One way of gauging them is by measuring the market perception of the potential for spillovers of financial risk from emerging markets to euro area banks. Banks’ ability to generate adequate profits is relevant for the sustainability of the banking system and, as such, for its ability to provide adequate funding to the economy. Profitable banks are able to attract capital from market investors and to generate capital through retained earnings. Since the financial crisis, euro area banks’ profitability has been low. This has reflected many factors, including the recognition of losses in the wake of the crisis, restructuring efforts with the aim of improving resilience, as well as an environment of low economic growth and low interest rates. The ECB has mitigated risks to euro area price stability stemming from the crisis by lowering policy rates and adopting a wide range of non-conventional monetary policy measures, in particular the negative deposit facility rate, the expanded asset purchase programme and the targeted longerterm refinancing operations (TLTROs). Since the transmission of these measures hinges on the banking system, they have the potential to affect bank profitability. Global financial markets have been marked by a number of short-lived episodes of elevated volatility in recent years. Strong corrections in asset markets can have adverse financial stability implications for the financial system owing to the losses that have to be absorbed, thereby reducing available buffers. A prolonged period of volatile and falling asset prices may also weaken the real economy via wealth effects and confidence channels. While large or persistent shocks to asset price volatility can cause clear harm to financial stability, so too might seemingly more insidious short-lived corrections. Indeed, amid surges in market volatility that are short-lived and quick to fade, investors are more likely to take undue risks. No other macroeconomic segment has been more closely linked to financial stability than residential real estate. Historical evidence shows that financial crises involving housing market imbalances have had severe negative repercussions on the overall financial system and economic growth. Accordingly, policies to contain risks stemming from residential property markets have assumed a key role in the macroprudential toolkit. Judiciously informing their use is, however, challenging given the multitude of factors behind real estate developments. This calls for an encompassing view that goes beyond traditional standardised price and valuation metrics. Financial stress indices have become a common tool to measure the current state of (in)stability in an economy’s financial system as a whole or major parts of it. Recent developments in a particular variant of such an index for the euro area, namely the composite indicator of systemic stress (CISS), reveal three distinct features: First, since mid-2013, the volatility of the CISS has gradually increased, with several large spikes in the last years. This presumably relates to major local and global stress events and may imply heightened risks to financial stability going forward. Second, the euro area CISS has displayed a gradual upward trend over this same period. More recently, the immediate stress following the UK referendum outcome lifted the indicator temporarily to levels last observed at the height of the euro area sovereign debt crisis.
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At the same time, potential shocks could be transmitted through indirect channels to euro area banks via EMEs’ trade links with euro area countries and a broader financial market confidence channel stemming from uncertainty about growth prospects in EMEs. Such indirect channels are complex. One way of gauging them is by measuring the market perception of the potential for spillovers of financial risk from emerging markets to euro area banks. Banks’ ability to generate adequate profits is relevant for the sustainability of the banking system and, as such, for its ability to provide adequate funding to the economy. Profitable banks are able to attract capital from market investors and to generate capital through retained earnings. Since the financial crisis, euro area banks’ profitability has been low. This has reflected many factors, including the recognition of losses in the wake of the crisis, restructuring efforts with the aim of improving resilience, as well as an environment of low economic growth and low interest rates. The ECB has mitigated risks to euro area price stability stemming from the crisis by lowering policy rates and adopting a wide range of non-conventional monetary policy measures, in particular the negative deposit facility rate, the expanded asset purchase programme and the targeted longerterm refinancing operations (TLTROs). Since the transmission of these measures hinges on the banking system, they have the potential to affect bank profitability. Global financial markets have been marked by a number of short-lived episodes of elevated volatility in recent years. Strong corrections in asset markets can have adverse financial stability implications for the financial system owing to the losses that have to be absorbed, thereby reducing available buffers. A prolonged period of volatile and falling asset prices may also weaken the real economy via wealth effects and confidence channels. While large or persistent shocks to asset price volatility can cause clear harm to financial stability, so too might seemingly more insidious short-lived corrections. Indeed, amid surges in market volatility that are short-lived and quick to fade, investors are more likely to take undue risks. No other macroeconomic segment has been more closely linked to financial stability than residential real estate. Historical evidence shows that financial crises involving housing market imbalances have had severe negative repercussions on the overall financial system and economic growth. Accordingly, policies to contain risks stemming from residential property markets have assumed a key role in the macroprudential toolkit. Judiciously informing their use is, however, challenging given the multitude of factors behind real estate developments. This calls for an encompassing view that goes beyond traditional standardised price and valuation metrics. Financial stress indices have become a common tool to measure the current state of (in)stability in an economy’s financial system as a whole or major parts of it. Recent developments in a particular variant of such an index for the euro area, namely the composite indicator of systemic stress (CISS), reveal three distinct features: First, since mid two thousand thirteen, the volatility of the CISS has gradually increased, with several large spikes in the last years. This presumably relates to major local and global stress events and may imply heightened risks to financial stability going forward. Second, the euro area CISS has displayed a gradual upward trend over this same period. More recently, the immediate stress following the UK referendum outcome lifted the indicator temporarily to levels last observed at the height of the euro area sovereign debt crisis.
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Republican representative Anna Paulina Luna accused Democrats of spreading hateful rhetoric. However, the comments from Trump and his allies have stirred controversy, with critics saying they neglect to acknowledge that the spate of violence is affecting left-leaning politicians too, and arguing they could heighten tensions further. The US has experienced about 150 politically motivated attacks in the first six months of this year. That is nearly twice as many as over the same period last year, an expert told Reuters news agency. Mike Jensen - from the University of Maryland, which for more than 50 years has tracked political violence in a database - said the US is in a 'a very, very dangerous spot right now'. 'This could absolutely serve as a kind of flashpoint that inspires more of it.' Kirk's murder is the latest in a string of high-profile attacks against political leaders in the US, including two attempted assassinations on Trump during his 2024 election campaign. The president suffered an ear injury in an attempted assassination at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, last July. Gabrielle Giffords and Nancy Pelosi, both targets of political violence themselves, have condemned the attack. In June, Minnesota's top Democratic legislator and her husband were murdered in their home. In 2022, the husband of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was bludgeoned with a hammer after a man broke into the couple's home looking for the top-ranking Democrat with the intention of taking her hostage. Former US representative Gabby Giffords – who survived being shot in the head during a meeting with constituents in 2011 – also condemned the attack. 'Democratic societies will always have political disagreements, but we must never allow America to become a country that confronts those disagreements with violence.'
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Republican representative Anna Paulina Luna accused Democrats of spreading hateful rhetoric. However, the comments from Trump and his allies have stirred controversy, with critics saying they neglect to acknowledge that the spate of violence is affecting left-leaning politicians too, and arguing they could heighten tensions further. The US has experienced about one hundred fifty politically motivated attacks in the first six months of this year. That is nearly twice as many as over the same period last year, an expert told Reuters news agency. Mike Jensen - from the University of Maryland, which for more than fifty years has tracked political violence in a database - said the US is in a 'a very, very dangerous spot right now'. 'This could absolutely serve as a kind of flashpoint that inspires more of it.' Kirk's murder is the latest in a string of high-profile attacks against political leaders in the US, including two attempted assassinations on Trump during his two thousand twenty four election campaign. The president suffered an ear injury in an attempted assassination at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, last July. Gabrielle Giffords and Nancy Pelosi, both targets of political violence themselves, have condemned the attack. In June, Minnesota's top Democratic legislator and her husband were murdered in their home. In two thousand twenty two, the husband of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was bludgeoned with a hammer after a man broke into the couple's home looking for the top-ranking Democrat with the intention of taking her hostage. Former US representative Gabby Giffords – who survived being shot in the head during a meeting with constituents in two thousand eleven – also condemned the attack. 'Democratic societies will always have political disagreements, but we must never allow America to become a country that confronts those disagreements with violence.'.
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AD: So they're brief, Six and a half minutes. And about 75 to 80 percent are happening outside of clinic hours. The longest conversations people have. KC: Yeah. And is Woebot good for roleplay? AD: Actually, we have found. So Woebot was built to be rules-based. Everything Woebot says and under the supervision. And so it's very safe. It's on the rails. Woebot will never make up something new. KC: Fantastic. AD: But we have been, you know. And it turns out generative AI. And it kind of speaks to some and that they're really good that humans aren't so great at. And I think roleplays are one. KC: Do people disclose more quickly? AD: Yeah. So that was shown in an early study that people would rather than when they believe. And that's particularly that are perceived as very stigmatized. And so, yeah, there's a sort in that it's never judging you. You don't have to think. So yeah. KC: When I think about it, I think there’s at least. One is price, always, like, who gets these transcripts? One is control. Like, who defines what an AI responds and what theories and theses of change. But the one that scares the hell out of me. And sometimes I wonder if we might for a total rejection of humanity, of like, dumb, boring, incomplete, half-asleep humans, when you could have this thing. Do you feel like people, they never want to leave it? AD: Definitely not. But that's how it was designed, right? So Woebot would have been designed --. It all depends on what are you. And if you're building it for, you know, human advancement. You want the, success looks like and growth. And that's partly, you know, challenging the idea of perfection. You know, a great AI that perfection is just an illusion. That's what makes us human and that's, you know. But of course, to your point, it really depends on who is the designer and what is this AI being built for. That is going to be. KC: Which goes to business model. AD: Sure. KC: So who pays for Woebot? AD: Well, currently Woebot's distributed in partnership with health systems. But that's right, we build for, again, let people talk and be invited to use a skill that's inspired by one of these like cognitive behavioral therapy, and then get them back. We never build for engagement, keeping people in the conversation which we just think is sort. And that's all about the incentive. That's how are you being paid. And as entrepreneurs, we all have a responsibility to ensure not the other way around. KC: Yeah. I'm thinking about Lenore Skenazy, who I now have this huge crush on, I bet we all do. And she said that the best sentence "I did it myself." And I wonder if we create this dependence on AI therapy companions that you’ll never be able. None of us will. AD: Well, I still think the humans. Because that's the beauty of an AI. It’s not a great. Well, this isn't really therapy, right? Structurally, it is so different. But a great process is just. They have to --. They're the ones. They're the ones or acknowledge their role or, you know, tune in to their deepest. And that stuff is hard. And that is all on the person. The AI is just going to ask you. So you know, I don't think -- or giving a diagnosis. It's very much and should be about helping. It’s like, I use the analogy of, you know, those mechanical machines so they can practice their swing to get better at the game with the human. You know, these are, fundamentally, tools. I believe that, and I think. And make sure that that is if you like, is human betterment. KC: Is there anything you do explicitly? AD: Oh, right. Well, yeah, exactly. That would be part of, you know. You know, we constantly would "Hey, you know, what is. And if it is a discomfort Woebot will sort of encourage that person to follow through. And then we'll come back "Hey, you said you were. Have you done it?" And we find actually in our data that, aside from the daily which facilitate sort of that accountability is the thing that people find their most favored. So you want that kind of accountability. KC: Do you have red lines? Has Woebot sat around and said, there's a whole set of things that we are not going to do? AD: Yeah, absolutely, loads. Like, give advice, sell data, especially to advertisers. Flirt, right? Because that muddies the dynamic of what is happening here. You know, again, it has to be so clear and what are we trying to achieve. And staying within. KC: Is the effectiveness of therapy or is this sort of element in the mix maybe going to increase? AD: See, this is the question, I think we haven't done a great job. Forgive me, you know, some of my best friends. But we're not doing a great job.
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AD: So they're brief, Six and a half minutes. And about seventy five to eighty percent are happening outside of clinic hours. The longest conversations people have. KC: Yeah. And is Woebot good for roleplay? AD: Actually, we have found. So Woebot was built to be rules-based. Everything Woebot says and under the supervision. And so it's very safe. It's on the rails. Woebot will never make up something new. KC: Fantastic. AD: But we have been, you know. And it turns out generative AI. And it kind of speaks to some and that they're really good that humans aren't so great at. And I think roleplays are one. KC: Do people disclose more quickly? AD: Yeah. So that was shown in an early study that people would rather than when they believe. And that's particularly that are perceived as very stigmatized. And so, yeah, there's a sort in that it's never judging you. You don't have to think. So yeah. KC: When I think about it, I think there’s at least. One is price, always, like, who gets these transcripts? One is control. Like, who defines what an AI responds and what theories and theses of change. But the one that scares the hell out of me. And sometimes I wonder if we might for a total rejection of humanity, of like, dumb, boring, incomplete, half-asleep humans, when you could have this thing. Do you feel like people, they never want to leave it? AD: Definitely not. But that's how it was designed, right? So Woebot would have been designed --. It all depends on what are you. And if you're building it for, you know, human advancement. You want the, success looks like and growth. And that's partly, you know, challenging the idea of perfection. You know, a great AI that perfection is just an illusion. That's what makes us human and that's, you know. But of course, to your point, it really depends on who is the designer and what is this AI being built for. That is going to be. KC: Which goes to business model. AD: Sure. KC: So who pays for Woebot? AD: Well, currently Woebot's distributed in partnership with health systems. But that's right, we build for, again, let people talk and be invited to use a skill that's inspired by one of these like cognitive behavioral therapy, and then get them back. We never build for engagement, keeping people in the conversation which we just think is sort. And that's all about the incentive. That's how are you being paid. And as entrepreneurs, we all have a responsibility to ensure not the other way around. KC: Yeah. I'm thinking about Lenore Skenazy, who I now have this huge crush on, I bet we all do. And she said that the best sentence "I did it myself." And I wonder if we create this dependence on AI therapy companions that you’ll never be able. None of us will. AD: Well, I still think the humans. Because that's the beauty of an AI. It’s not a great. Well, this isn't really therapy, right? Structurally, it is so different. But a great process is just. They have to --. They're the ones. They're the ones or acknowledge their role or, you know, tune in to their deepest. And that stuff is hard. And that is all on the person. The AI is just going to ask you. So you know, I don't think -- or giving a diagnosis. It's very much and should be about helping. It’s like, I use the analogy of, you know, those mechanical machines so they can practice their swing to get better at the game with the human. You know, these are, fundamentally, tools. I believe that, and I think. And make sure that that is if you like, is human betterment. KC: Is there anything you do explicitly? AD: Oh, right. Well, yeah, exactly. That would be part of, you know. You know, we constantly would "Hey, you know, what is. And if it is a discomfort Woebot will sort of encourage that person to follow through. And then we'll come back "Hey, you said you were. Have you done it?" And we find actually in our data that, aside from the daily which facilitate sort of that accountability is the thing that people find their most favored. So you want that kind of accountability. KC: Do you have red lines? Has Woebot sat around and said, there's a whole set of things that we are not going to do? AD: Yeah, absolutely, loads. Like, give advice, sell data, especially to advertisers. Flirt, right? Because that muddies the dynamic of what is happening here. You know, again, it has to be so clear and what are we trying to achieve. And staying within. KC: Is the effectiveness of therapy or is this sort of element in the mix maybe going to increase? AD: See, this is the question, I think we haven't done a great job. Forgive me, you know, some of my best friends. But we're not doing a great job.
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long_en_51
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talk_en
| 724 |
en
|
I think in the face of any adversity, communities of color. I think for me, social media is one. Social media can be a positive change. It can inform masses that are often overlooked in the media. My followers often are commenting, "I haven't seen this anywhere else." I think that social media can save lives. My name is Joel Bervell, I'm a fourth-year medical student, but I'm better known online for creating content about health equity, and the ways that healthcare. When I first started medical school, I was thinking a lot about Ahmaud Arbery. All these moments were happening that I entered my first year where myself and one other medical student in our school of 200 students. It made me think a lot about how we were talking and what race meant in the context. I kept hearing in my classes that Black people were more likely more likely to get COVID, Black people were more likely. We never dived into the social or other and the history behind what led. Seeing the lack of diverse medical made me want to actually take to talk about the things. My name is Joel, And let's talk about racial bias. Let's talk about racial biases. Let’s talk about the racialization. The misguided racial correction it assumes that all have a lower lung functioning. Up to 93 percent of cervical. Yet in the United States, Latinos and Black women are more. Looking back at this history teaches us and unnoticed until we raise the alarm. ["When you go to medical school [but also learn that racial biases [So you start using social media to expose. So many of my videos, a lot of the comments were from healthcare saying, "I've never heard about this." A study in 2016 was done that 50 percent of medical endorse at least one false between Black and non-Black patients. So goes to show how and stereotypes continue till today and can impact the way. Because everyone, have had an experience in the hospital where they felt like they were ignored. There's already legacies and histories of why communities of color. You can look at so many things. In 1961, Fannie Lou Hamer for the removal of a small uterine tumor. While under anesthesia, she was. This woman's cells were used cancer and so much more. Dr. Sims practiced genital surgeries without any anesthesia. Our job as physicians needs to be what should and what shouldn’t stand from past beliefs to present beliefs. I think diversity, equity, inclusion to critically evaluate especially in medicine. Diversity, equity, inclusion because it goes beyond race. It goes to thinking about all aspects and how that interacts. And two, it's necessary just because the patient population. So often there are places in medicine. Whether that's through an equation or about lung functioning. So being able to talk allows us to critically evaluate. If we're not able to accurately critique and whether that's harming we're unable to do our job of do no harm. But there's a concerted effort to try and essentially root diversity, people thinking that's negative. If these anti-DEI bills I think we're going to see less diversity. I think we're going to see that's really critically thinking and being able to kind of recorrect that, which has already been difficult to get. We're going to see scholarship. We're going to see programs that are. We're going to see students less simply because there's not that have been overlooked for so long. We're going to be set back to a time where we were not and actively harming patients. I don't want to scare people away, but I want them to know, and there's information they can have so they feel a little bit more confident. When there's awareness, can actually start tackling a problem. I think when we don't know it's a problem. I think there's just so many opportunities as this ground for community and hopefully create change. I think especially I think that's the space we're going into. It can be a space to continue to learn, educate and hopefully talk about.
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I think in the face of any adversity, communities of color. I think for me, social media is one. Social media can be a positive change. It can inform masses that are often overlooked in the media. My followers often are commenting, "I haven't seen this anywhere else." I think that social media can save lives. My name is Joel Bervell, I'm a fourth-year medical student, but I'm better known online for creating content about health equity, and the ways that healthcare. When I first started medical school, I was thinking a lot about Ahmaud Arbery. All these moments were happening that I entered my first year where myself and one other medical student in our school of two hundred students. It made me think a lot about how we were talking and what race meant in the context. I kept hearing in my classes that Black people were more likely more likely to get COVID, Black people were more likely. We never dived into the social or other and the history behind what led. Seeing the lack of diverse medical made me want to actually take to talk about the things. My name is Joel, And let's talk about racial bias. Let's talk about racial biases. Let’s talk about the racialization. The misguided racial correction it assumes that all have a lower lung functioning. Up to ninety three percent of cervical. Yet in the United States, Latinos and Black women are more. Looking back at this history teaches us and unnoticed until we raise the alarm. ["When you go to medical school [but also learn that racial biases [So you start using social media to expose. So many of my videos, a lot of the comments were from healthcare saying, "I've never heard about this." A study in two thousand sixteen was done that fifty percent of medical endorse at least one false between Black and non-Black patients. So goes to show how and stereotypes continue till today and can impact the way. Because everyone, have had an experience in the hospital where they felt like they were ignored. There's already legacies and histories of why communities of color. You can look at so many things. In nineteen sixty-one, Fannie Lou Hamer for the removal of a small uterine tumor. While under anesthesia, she was. This woman's cells were used cancer and so much more. Dr. Sims practiced genital surgeries without any anesthesia. Our job as physicians needs to be what should and what shouldn’t stand from past beliefs to present beliefs. I think diversity, equity, inclusion to critically evaluate especially in medicine. Diversity, equity, inclusion because it goes beyond race. It goes to thinking about all aspects and how that interacts. And two, it's necessary just because the patient population. So often there are places in medicine. Whether that's through an equation or about lung functioning. So being able to talk allows us to critically evaluate. If we're not able to accurately critique and whether that's harming we're unable to do our job of do no harm."] But there's a concerted effort to try and essentially root diversity, people thinking that's negative. If these anti-DEI bills I think we're going to see less diversity. I think we're going to see that's really critically thinking and being able to kind of recorrect that, which has already been difficult to get. We're going to see scholarship. We're going to see programs that are. We're going to see students less simply because there's not that have been overlooked for so long. We're going to be set back to a time where we were not and actively harming patients. I don't want to scare people away, but I want them to know, and there's information they can have so they feel a little bit more confident. When there's awareness, can actually start tackling a problem. I think when we don't know it's a problem. I think there's just so many opportunities as this ground for community and hopefully create change. I think especially I think that's the space we're going into. It can be a space to continue to learn, educate and hopefully talk about.
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long_en_34
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talk_en
| 946 |
en
|
So it's a Tuesday afternoon. I'm in my home office, I have my headphones on. Just then, one of those annoying dings. So it's someone important. It's Rosa, our nanny. "Hey, Avni, I was wondering. I silence it. I'll just get back. I realize I need something for my email. Big mistake. There are not one, rehearsal and a field trip. That's OK, I've got and I leave them unread. I also activate my really foolproof system. I grab my email and I get back to work. Two more minutes, another ding. It's Rosa again. "Hey, Avni, I'm at the school for pickup, but there's no one here. Should I be somewhere else?" Immediately, monkey brain activates. I grab my phone. Today’s play rehearsal, right? That should be at the big gym." I head back to my email, looking costumes, volunteering, and there, on the schedule, "Oh, by the way, I text Rosa and tell her to head. I sit back, relieved, and my eyes fall on those unread emails. And I think, you know what happens next. I finish that product doc, obviously. Yeah, no. I'd like to tell you, but I ended up creating. Because with two kids, two jobs, and your modern family cocktail and soccer tournaments, I loved how full our life was, but I hated that somehow my brain that ran my family. And worse, it made because everything was in my head, and the only way to get it out. At which point I would look. When was it that I became. Pro tip: not a very good way. But maybe it's because I've been before I became a tech founder, that next to that frustration, I also felt curiosity and opportunity. I had honed my ability in everyday interactions, and to build products that solve them, like packaging for an osteoporosis drug and accessible to arthritic hands. Or designing a service for parents and doing it over SMS because that's where they already are instead of sending them to another app. And this, parenthood, well, this felt. I wanted to build myself a force field, a machine that could intercept an expert that was more capable. I mean, if we were going to use my brain, why couldn't we use. My first few tries failed. It didn't matter how meticulously of our family's logistics, there was always some situation. I mean, try explaining a five-year-old's to software. But then three years ago, things changed. Large language models. And unlike software, AI could handle ambiguous. It could take something and not just do the explicit thing, but handle the implicit things that too often mess. Tired, like reminding me or checking for conflicts. So now, when my husband and I are hit, I've built Milo, the first AI sidekick for parents, to be able to take and grocery items and library books and be able to handle it. And best yet, Milo can tell. Finally, a computer. So you'd think that this. But no. Because I'm human and I'm greedy. If Milo could take on the rote, repetitive, administrative parts, why not keep on going? Why couldn't it coordinate playdates? Or when the girls were bickering, pop in to suggest the ideal way. So a couple of months ago, we're working on ways, and one of my investors, a guy who's pretty reserved, goes, "Well, Milo can see and just automatically text your sitter. Or it knows your friends' birthdays. And those teacher emails? Well, Milo can just connect and suck every last one up so you never have to see." As we fleshed these features out, though, something just didn't feel right, but I couldn't figure out what it was. After all, I was looking for friction, but something just didn't feel right. What was it? That question nagged me for weeks until one evening my daughter Saaya to show me something. And as I ran my fingers over. Not all friction is bad. You might know, to connect two of these you actually have to score so that they have something to grip on to. Otherwise the smooth sides. This resistance is called, and it's valuable. And where people are involved, there's lots of productive friction, meaningful interactions. I didn't need a perfectly. I needed a permeable one instead. One that shielded me from the things but let in the fewer, messier. Milo could find three times, but I could text Carrie, which would give me a chance. Or Milo could comb through every last, picking out details but leave for me on top Miss V's note about how our daughter Arya’s has really been blossoming. You might draw your line. And I might draw mine differently. In a week when my husband is traveling, the girls have tennis tryouts, and I have a product launch, I want Milo to build me a force field. But I guess the point is, we finally have the kind of technology between load that we need help lightning and work that is hard, I've begun to realize that one of the most radical is not do the things for us but to push us to choose and then make the space. This feels like a brave new world, but I'm excited to see what is possible when we have tools that encourage us but unfinished and evolving. That reminds us not to be afraid that just shows us imperfectly, inconveniently human. Thank you.
|
So it's a Tuesday afternoon. I'm in my home office, I have my headphones on. Just then, one of those annoying dings. So it's someone important. It's Rosa, our nanny. "Hey, Avni, I was wondering. I silence it. I'll just get back. I realize I need something for my email. Big mistake. There are not one, rehearsal and a field trip. That's OK, I've got and I leave them unread. I also activate my really foolproof system. I grab my email and I get back to work. Two more minutes, another ding. It's Rosa again. "Hey, Avni, I'm at the school for pickup, but there's no one here. Should I be somewhere else?" Immediately, monkey brain activates. I grab my phone. Today’s play rehearsal, right? That should be at the big gym." I head back to my email, looking costumes, volunteering, and there, on the schedule, "Oh, by the way, I text Rosa and tell her to head. I sit back, relieved, and my eyes fall on those unread emails. And I think, you know what happens next. I finish that product doc, obviously. Yeah, no. I'd like to tell you, but I ended up creating. Because with two kids, two jobs, and your modern family cocktail and soccer tournaments, I loved how full our life was, but I hated that somehow my brain that ran my family. And worse, it made because everything was in my head, and the only way to get it out. At which point I would look. When was it that I became. Pro tip: not a very good way. But maybe it's because I've been before I became a tech founder, that next to that frustration, I also felt curiosity and opportunity. I had honed my ability in everyday interactions, and to build products that solve them, like packaging for an osteoporosis drug and accessible to arthritic hands. Or designing a service for parents and doing it over SMS because that's where they already are instead of sending them to another app. And this, parenthood, well, this felt. I wanted to build myself a force field, a machine that could intercept an expert that was more capable. I mean, if we were going to use my brain, why couldn't we use. My first few tries failed. It didn't matter how meticulously of our family's logistics, there was always some situation. I mean, try explaining a five-year-old's to software. But then three years ago, things changed. Large language models. And unlike software, AI could handle ambiguous. It could take something and not just do the explicit thing, but handle the implicit things that too often mess. Tired, like reminding me or checking for conflicts. So now, when my husband and I are hit, I've built Milo, the first AI sidekick for parents, to be able to take and grocery items and library books and be able to handle it. And best yet, Milo can tell. Finally, a computer. So you'd think that this. But no. Because I'm human and I'm greedy. If Milo could take on the rote, repetitive, administrative parts, why not keep on going? Why couldn't it coordinate playdates? Or when the girls were bickering, pop in to suggest the ideal way. So a couple of months ago, we're working on ways, and one of my investors, a guy who's pretty reserved, goes, "Well, Milo can see and just automatically text your sitter. Or it knows your friends' birthdays. And those teacher emails? Well, Milo can just connect and suck every last one up so you never have to see." As we fleshed these features out, though, something just didn't feel right, but I couldn't figure out what it was. After all, I was looking for friction, but something just didn't feel right. What was it? That question nagged me for weeks until one evening my daughter Saaya to show me something. And as I ran my fingers over. Not all friction is bad. You might know, to connect two of these you actually have to score so that they have something to grip on to. Otherwise the smooth sides. This resistance is called, and it's valuable. And where people are involved, there's lots of productive friction, meaningful interactions. I didn't need a perfectly. I needed a permeable one instead. One that shielded me from the things but let in the fewer, messier. Milo could find three times, but I could text Carrie, which would give me a chance. Or Milo could comb through every last, picking out details but leave for me on top Miss V's note about how our daughter Arya’s has really been blossoming. You might draw your line. And I might draw mine differently. In a week when my husband is traveling, the girls have tennis tryouts, and I have a product launch, I want Milo to build me a force field. But I guess the point is, we finally have the kind of technology between load that we need help lightning and work that is hard, I've begun to realize that one of the most radical is not do the things for us but to push us to choose and then make the space. This feels like a brave new world, but I'm excited to see what is possible when we have tools that encourage us but unfinished and evolving. That reminds us not to be afraid that just shows us imperfectly, inconveniently human. Thank you.
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long_en_35
|
talk_en
| 740 |
en
|
I was sitting in the waiting room and couldn't help but notice. discussing nursery plans, baby names. I sat in the chair alone feeling the kicks. I was uninsured, unemployed, living with my parents. I wasn't even 30, but already a survivor where violence was the daily norm. After broken bones and broken dreams, it seemed my life couldn't get worse. Or so I thought. When my doctor called me, I noticed her serious expression. And then she asked me, "Are you faithful?" I thought, wait, what? What the heck? And I just kept staring at her unaware of what was going on. She insisted, "Are you faithful? Do you have relationships?" And then I told her once again was living with my parents, eight months pregnant, definitely not thinking. And then she said, "The thing is, you have AIDS. And by reading your exams, you won't survive to raise this child." Globally, one in three women face at some point in their lives, a number that has remained unchanged. And just like me, women are three times more likely to get HIV, usually from their abuser. But here's the thing, most of the research is led by academics with minimal input or participation from the women. With a traditional, top-down academics with more power and resources, swoop in to “save” communities with strategies and questions that often end up perpetuating against the very people. This leaves them feeling ashamed. There is also a risk of not getting. How can we "fix" communities' challenges? Aren't they the best experts? I came to understand this firsthand, both during my experience and through my own professional journey. First of all, my doctor was wrong. It is 2024 and I'm still here. I was sick for a long time, but eventually I got better to become a woman's right activist. And in honor to the countless women and HIV AIDS, I wanted to use my science in the lives of others like me. But that meant changing the way. Back in grad school, I got this very neat research project. I was going to help improve the lives. so I hit the streets to interview them. The main question I was supposed to ask: "How often do you have sex?" Pretty soon I realized I was way off base. The real worry was not condoms. The real fear was getting and not making it out alive. This eventually led me to adopt community. That's a fancy name that really includes affected communities, working with and for them, from the planning stage. Evaluations of community, but some authors found compared to more traditional methods. This is probably due to this. that really includes the unique allowing us to better understand. I saw this impact firsthand in my work with the queer. We formed an advisory board and populations and worked together conduct the surveys. What we found was that queer Brazilians were facing high rates of bullying, poverty and mental health struggles. So we partnered with local organizations to implement strategies: a free college preparation course and entrepreneurship training. These strategies developed to break. After seven years, our own tracking shows that more than 80 percent continued their education, receiving a college or university degree. The vast majority of those participating either launched new businesses. To address bullying and violence, we developed the Rise app, again in close collaboration. The app has features like a panic button, safe route mapping, mental health screening, 24/7 crisis support. It has thousands of users, many of whom have shared with us how the app has literally. Help is just a push away. Every single strategy was developed, implemented, tested, revised in close collaboration. This is, in essence, what community. I know as a survivor myself. We want to co-create change. But that's my own reality. And the singular experience is different from sex workers, Indigenous women from the Amazon Bay, people living with HIV Aids, from Uganda, Mozambique, Kenya. To work with those communities, I also had to humble myself and listen, truly listen to each community. And I have learned so much. I've cried and laughed a lot. I have met amazing, resilient, powerful humans, and together we developed new services, improved the existing ones, and even helped to change local. But I was not their savior. They were their own heroes.
|
I was sitting in the waiting room and couldn't help but notice. discussing nursery plans, baby names. I sat in the chair alone feeling the kicks. I was uninsured, unemployed, living with my parents. I wasn't even thirty, but already a survivor where violence was the daily norm. After broken bones and broken dreams, it seemed my life couldn't get worse. Or so I thought. When my doctor called me, I noticed her serious expression. And then she asked me, "Are you faithful?" I thought, wait, what? What the heck? And I just kept staring at her unaware of what was going on. She insisted, "Are you faithful? Do you have relationships?" And then I told her once again was living with my parents, eight months pregnant, definitely not thinking. And then she said, "The thing is, you have AIDS. And by reading your exams, you won't survive to raise this child." Globally, one in three women face at some point in their lives, a number that has remained unchanged. And just like me, women are three times more likely to get HIV, usually from their abuser. But here's the thing, most of the research is led by academics with minimal input or participation from the women. With a traditional, top-down academics with more power and resources, swoop in to “save” communities with strategies and questions that often end up perpetuating against the very people. This leaves them feeling ashamed. There is also a risk of not getting. How can we "fix" communities' challenges? Aren't they the best experts? I came to understand this firsthand, both during my experience and through my own professional journey. First of all, my doctor was wrong. It is two thousand twenty four and I'm still here. I was sick for a long time, but eventually I got better to become a woman's right activist. And in honor to the countless women and HIV AIDS, I wanted to use my science in the lives of others like me. But that meant changing the way. Back in grad school, I got this very neat research project. I was going to help improve the lives. so I hit the streets to interview them. The main question I was supposed to ask: "How often do you have sex?" Pretty soon I realized I was way off base. The real worry was not condoms. The real fear was getting and not making it out alive. This eventually led me to adopt community. That's a fancy name that really includes affected communities, working with and for them, from the planning stage. Evaluations of community, but some authors found compared to more traditional methods. This is probably due to this. that really includes the unique allowing us to better understand. I saw this impact firsthand in my work with the queer. We formed an advisory board and populations and worked together conduct the surveys. What we found was that queer Brazilians were facing high rates of bullying, poverty and mental health struggles. So we partnered with local organizations to implement strategies: a free college preparation course and entrepreneurship training. These strategies developed to break. After seven years, our own tracking shows that more than eighty percent continued their education, receiving a college or university degree. The vast majority of those participating either launched new businesses. To address bullying and violence, we developed the Rise app, again in close collaboration. The app has features like a panic button, safe route mapping, mental health screening, twenty four seven crisis support. It has thousands of users, many of whom have shared with us how the app has literally. Help is just a push away. Every single strategy was developed, implemented, tested, revised in close collaboration. This is, in essence, what community. I know as a survivor myself. We want to co-create change. But that's my own reality. And the singular experience is different from sex workers, Indigenous women from the Amazon Bay, people living with HIV Aids, from Uganda, Mozambique, Kenya. To work with those communities, I also had to humble myself and listen, truly listen to each community. And I have learned so much. I've cried and laughed a lot. I have met amazing, resilient, powerful humans, and together we developed new services, improved the existing ones, and even helped to change local. But I was not their savior. They were their own heroes.
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long_en_42
|
talk_en
| 809 |
en
|
I call it neo-evolution -- the new evolution that is not simply natural, but guided and chosen by us as individuals in the choices that we will make. Now how could this come about? How could it be possible that we would do this? Consider, first, the reality that people today, in some cultures, are making choices about their offspring. They're, in some cultures, choosing to have more males than females. It's not necessarily good for the society, but it's what the individual and the family are choosing. Think also. If it were possible ever for you to choose, not simply to choose the sex of your child, but for you in your body to make the genetic adjustments that would cure or prevent diseases. What if you could make the genetic changes to eliminate diabetes or Alzheimer's or reduce the risk of cancer or eliminate stroke? Wouldn't you want to make those changes in your genes? If we look ahead, these kind of changes are going to be increasingly possible. The Human Genome Project started in 1990, and it took 13 years. It cost 2.7 billion dollars. The year after it was finished in 2004, you could do the same job for 20 million dollars in three to four months. Today, you can have a complete sequence of the three billion base pairs in the human genome at a cost of about 20,000 dollars and in the space of about a week. It won't be very long before the reality will be the 1,000-dollar human genome, and it will be increasingly available for everyone. Just a week ago, the National Academy of Engineering awarded its Draper Prize to Francis Arnold and Willem Stemmer, two scientists who independently developed techniques to encourage the natural process of evolution to work faster and to lead to desirable proteins in a more efficient way -- what Frances Arnold calls "directed evolution." A couple of years ago, the Lasker Prize was awarded to the scientist Shinya Yamanaka for his research in which he took an adult skin cell, a fibroblast, and by manipulating just four genes, he induced that cell to revert to a pluripotential stem cell -- a cell potentially capable of becoming any cell in your body. These changes are coming. The same technology that has produced the human insulin in bacteria can make viruses that will not only protect you against themselves, but induce immunity against other viruses. Believe it or not, there's an experimental trial going on with vaccine against influenza that has been grown in the cells of a tobacco plant. Can you imagine something good coming out of tobacco? These are all reality today. And [in] the future, will be evermore possible. Imagine then just two other little changes. You can change the cells in your body, but what if you could change the cells in your offspring? What if you could change the sperm and the ova, or change the newly fertilized egg, and give your offspring a better chance at a healthier life -- eliminate the diabetes, eliminate the hemophilia, reduce the risk of cancer? Who doesn't want healthier children? And then, that same analytic technology, that same engine of science that can produce the changes to prevent disease, will also enable us to adopt super-attributes, hyper-capacities -- that better memory. Why not have the quick wit of a Ken Jennings, especially if you can augment it with the next generation of the Watson machine? Why not have the quick twitch muscle that will enable you to run faster and longer? Why not live longer? These will be irresistible. And when we are at a position where we can pass it on to the next generation, and we can adopt the attributes we want, we will have converted old-style evolution into neo-evolution. We'll take a process that normally might require 100,000 years, and we can compress it down to a thousand years -- and maybe even in the next 100 years. These are choices that your grandchildren, or their grandchildren, are going to have before them. Will we use these choices to make a society that is better, that is more successful, that is kinder? Or, will we selectively choose different attributes that we want for some of us and not for others of us? Will we make a society that is more boring and more uniform, or more robust and more versatile? These are the kinds of questions that we will have to face. And most profoundly of all, will we ever be able to develop the wisdom, and to inherit the wisdom, that we'll need to make these choices wisely? For better or worse, and sooner than you may think, these choices will be up to us. Thank you.
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I call it neo-evolution -- the new evolution that is not simply natural, but guided and chosen by us as individuals in the choices that we will make. Now how could this come about? How could it be possible that we would do this? Consider, first, the reality that people today, in some cultures, are making choices about their offspring. They're, in some cultures, choosing to have more males than females. It's not necessarily good for the society, but it's what the individual and the family are choosing. Think also. If it were possible ever for you to choose, not simply to choose the sex of your child, but for you in your body to make the genetic adjustments that would cure or prevent diseases. What if you could make the genetic changes to eliminate diabetes or Alzheimer's or reduce the risk of cancer or eliminate stroke? Wouldn't you want to make those changes in your genes? If we look ahead, these kind of changes are going to be increasingly possible. The Human Genome Project started in nineteen ninety, and it took thirteen years. It cost two point seven billion dollars. The year after it was finished in two thousand four, you could do the same job for twenty million dollars in three to four months. Today, you can have a complete sequence of the three billion base pairs in the human genome at a cost of about twenty thousand dollars and in the space of about a week. It won't be very long before the reality will be the one thousand-dollar human genome, and it will be increasingly available for everyone. Just a week ago, the National Academy of Engineering awarded its Draper Prize to Francis Arnold and Willem Stemmer, two scientists who independently developed techniques to encourage the natural process of evolution to work faster and to lead to desirable proteins in a more efficient way -- what Frances Arnold calls "directed evolution." A couple of years ago, the Lasker Prize was awarded to the scientist Shinya Yamanaka for his research in which he took an adult skin cell, a fibroblast, and by manipulating just four genes, he induced that cell to revert to a pluripotential stem cell -- a cell potentially capable of becoming any cell in your body. These changes are coming. The same technology that has produced the human insulin in bacteria can make viruses that will not only protect you against themselves, but induce immunity against other viruses. Believe it or not, there's an experimental trial going on with vaccine against influenza that has been grown in the cells of a tobacco plant. Can you imagine something good coming out of tobacco? These are all reality today. And [in] the future, will be evermore possible. Imagine then just two other little changes. You can change the cells in your body, but what if you could change the cells in your offspring? What if you could change the sperm and the ova, or change the newly fertilized egg, and give your offspring a better chance at a healthier life -- eliminate the diabetes, eliminate the hemophilia, reduce the risk of cancer? Who doesn't want healthier children? And then, that same analytic technology, that same engine of science that can produce the changes to prevent disease, will also enable us to adopt super-attributes, hyper-capacities -- that better memory. Why not have the quick wit of a Ken Jennings, especially if you can augment it with the next generation of the Watson machine? Why not have the quick twitch muscle that will enable you to run faster and longer? Why not live longer? These will be irresistible. And when we are at a position where we can pass it on to the next generation, and we can adopt the attributes we want, we will have converted old-style evolution into neo-evolution. We'll take a process that normally might require one hundred thousand years, and we can compress it down to a thousand years -- and maybe even in the next one hundred years. These are choices that your grandchildren, or their grandchildren, are going to have before them. Will we use these choices to make a society that is better, that is more successful, that is kinder? Or, will we selectively choose different attributes that we want for some of us and not for others of us? Will we make a society that is more boring and more uniform, or more robust and more versatile? These are the kinds of questions that we will have to face. And most profoundly of all, will we ever be able to develop the wisdom, and to inherit the wisdom, that we'll need to make these choices wisely? For better or worse, and sooner than you may think, these choices will be up to us. Thank you.
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long_en_37
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talk_en
| 934 |
en
|
My mom remembers me squealing for joy when I ran home from school and saw green beans ready for harvesting. Or when I sold a bag of avocados. I considered studying but instead opted to study business. And started in corporate America. But many twists and turns consulting, working with entrepreneurs. A defining moment for me was in 2007. During the first world food crisis, I recognized how connected we were. Oil price shocks which affected bread prices. And the most vulnerable were hurt. Fourteen years later, We're even more connected, and our food ecosystem. Thankfully, the Rockefeller Foundation on the true cost of food. Which indicates that even though on our annual food expenditure. We actually spend 2.1 trillion and climate, all because of our broken food ecosystem. These same statistics have been. In fact, according to the UN our food system is value-destroying. There's a need for urgent action. From at least three lenses. A health lens, an equity lens and a climate lens. Starting with the climate lens, we must modify how we grow food. Our food ecosystem is one of the largest. We keep cutting down trees and we keep wasting food. Generates methane. The good news is. And the science today to grow enough food to feed the world and to address our food waste problems. We have the knowledge, but we're not using it. There are exciting examples where we're seeing dramatic impact. The Songhai Center in Benin Republic educates young Africans. And zero-waste total production. And one of these young people. Through his company, Bioloop, he's feeding waste, to black soldier fly larva. They're growing really quickly. The byproducts and the residue is wonderful soil supplements. And the entire production process. Through my work with Sahel Consulting, we're demonstrating that farmers without hurting the environment. We're using technology and science and we're proving that in Africa, there are great examples. Now we need to scale these interventions. And we need to ensure our private sector, our farmers, are incentivized to change behavior. If you're as impatient as I am, by reducing the food waste in your home. Every single person here. To ensure that their schools, their civil society groups and a food waste policy. And please don't tell your children because there are hungry. Tell them to finish their dinner and healthy food is good for them. Second, we must ensure and accessible for the most vulnerable. This is a huge challenge. Unhealthy food kills. And we know this. One out of every five deaths. And yet, one third cannot afford a healthy diet. This is a big challenge. Now food is medicine. Healthy food gives us long. And during COVID, shipping challenges and the most vulnerable have had to shift because they are cheaper. This has caused more damage. We must take a stand on this. There Hadzabe people in Tanzania. And through their lives, we’ve seen the ability. They eat ten times more fiber. Oftentimes we don't realize that even we have so much to learn. In urban communities, we also have exciting that's using digital technology, to get urban populations high blood pressure and so many linked to eating ultra-processed food to shift to more traditional diets. We must scale these type of interventions, but we must also hold our private sector for the amount of sugar. We must set standards and define healthy food according to plant-based diet, and keep all of us accountable. We must also encourage our governments state and federal level. Our school feeding programs our public procurement programs and collectively, we ensure that we keep every child. If you are as impatient as me, you must also set standards and hold those in your spheres for delivering unhealthy food. Third, we must support. In the food ecosystem, small- and medium-sized enterprises. They create jobs, they are innovative, and they can pivot very quickly. But during the pandemic. They are most affected by shocks. The mortality rates of small- in the food ecosystem has been quite high. Now through my work, I’ve seen the value and the power. I'm the co-founder. Over 50 percent of our staff are women. Fifty percent of our board are women. And we produce healthy food. Through this company, we're demonstrating you empower communities. One product that we sell has a ripple. Another company that's worthy using mobile money and cell phones. Now their efficiency creating shorter value chains, the retailer benefits, but the consumer. And finally, I'm most inspired. Through Nourishing Africa, I work with enterprises who are scaling sustainable businesses, building healthy food companies and demonstrating that strong, small- and medium-sized enterprises, committed to sustainable can become change agents. We need to support our small- creating an enabling environment for them, providing catalytic financing, enabling them to scale, and supporting women-owned businesses, especially businesses run by young women. In the food ecosystem, when we plant the seed to let it grow. We're often told so that the juices will flow. We're told that "ndidiamaka,". But a wise woman once said, "For the dreamer, impatience is a virtue." I am impatient about the current pace. And I think we all must be courageous. The next time you eat a meal. Who grew this food? Where was it grown? When was it grown? How many steps and stops did it make? How much food waste was generated? Let your answers influence your next meal.
|
My mom remembers me squealing for joy when I ran home from school and saw green beans ready for harvesting. Or when I sold a bag of avocados. I considered studying but instead opted to study business. And started in corporate America. But many twists and turns consulting, working with entrepreneurs. A defining moment for me was in two thousand seven. During the first world food crisis, I recognized how connected we were. Oil price shocks which affected bread prices. And the most vulnerable were hurt. Fourteen years later, We're even more connected, and our food ecosystem. Thankfully, the Rockefeller Foundation on the true cost of food. Which indicates that even though on our annual food expenditure. We actually spend two point one trillion and climate, all because of our broken food ecosystem. These same statistics have been. In fact, according to the UN our food system is value-destroying. There's a need for urgent action. From at least three lenses. A health lens, an equity lens and a climate lens. Starting with the climate lens, we must modify how we grow food. Our food ecosystem is one of the largest. We keep cutting down trees and we keep wasting food. Generates methane. The good news is. And the science today to grow enough food to feed the world and to address our food waste problems. We have the knowledge, but we're not using it. There are exciting examples where we're seeing dramatic impact. The Songhai Center in Benin Republic educates young Africans. And zero-waste total production. And one of these young people. Through his company, Bioloop, he's feeding waste, to black soldier fly larva. They're growing really quickly. The byproducts and the residue is wonderful soil supplements. And the entire production process. Through my work with Sahel Consulting, we're demonstrating that farmers without hurting the environment. We're using technology and science and we're proving that in Africa, there are great examples. Now we need to scale these interventions. And we need to ensure our private sector, our farmers, are incentivized to change behavior. If you're as impatient as I am, by reducing the food waste in your home. Every single person here. To ensure that their schools, their civil society groups and a food waste policy. And please don't tell your children because there are hungry. Tell them to finish their dinner and healthy food is good for them. Second, we must ensure and accessible for the most vulnerable. This is a huge challenge. Unhealthy food kills. And we know this. One out of every five deaths. And yet, one third cannot afford a healthy diet. This is a big challenge. Now food is medicine. Healthy food gives us long. And during COVID, shipping challenges and the most vulnerable have had to shift because they are cheaper. This has caused more damage. We must take a stand on this. There Hadzabe people in Tanzania. And through their lives, we’ve seen the ability. They eat ten times more fiber. Oftentimes we don't realize that even we have so much to learn. In urban communities, we also have exciting that's using digital technology, to get urban populations high blood pressure and so many linked to eating ultra-processed food to shift to more traditional diets. We must scale these type of interventions, but we must also hold our private sector for the amount of sugar. We must set standards and define healthy food according to plant-based diet, and keep all of us accountable. We must also encourage our governments state and federal level. Our school feeding programs our public procurement programs and collectively, we ensure that we keep every child. If you are as impatient as me, you must also set standards and hold those in your spheres for delivering unhealthy food. Third, we must support. In the food ecosystem, small- and medium-sized enterprises. They create jobs, they are innovative, and they can pivot very quickly. But during the pandemic. They are most affected by shocks. The mortality rates of small- in the food ecosystem has been quite high. Now through my work, I’ve seen the value and the power. I'm the co-founder. Over fifty percent of our staff are women. Fifty percent of our board are women. And we produce healthy food. Through this company, we're demonstrating you empower communities. One product that we sell has a ripple. Another company that's worthy using mobile money and cell phones. Now their efficiency creating shorter value chains, the retailer benefits, but the consumer. And finally, I'm most inspired. Through Nourishing Africa, I work with enterprises who are scaling sustainable businesses, building healthy food companies and demonstrating that strong, small- and medium-sized enterprises, committed to sustainable can become change agents. We need to support our small- creating an enabling environment for them, providing catalytic financing, enabling them to scale, and supporting women-owned businesses, especially businesses run by young women. In the food ecosystem, when we plant the seed to let it grow. We're often told so that the juices will flow. We're told that "ndidiamaka,". But a wise woman once said, "For the dreamer, impatience is a virtue." I am impatient about the current pace. And I think we all must be courageous. The next time you eat a meal. Who grew this food? Where was it grown? When was it grown? How many steps and stops did it make? How much food waste was generated? Let your answers influence your next meal.
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long_en_31
|
talk_en
| 698 |
en
|
Lots of people are really. My husband, my daughters love rockets and pretty much anything. It's never really been my thing. However, I recently went and I can honestly say. And the emotion that I felt. It was hope. Because my colleagues and I helped. That will address the single to affect climate change in our lifetimes. We often hear about things we can do and the Earth that they'll inherit. And everything we're doing will certainly help in the long run. But what if we could do something. I believe we can. Methane is a highly potent. Let's compare this year's carbon dioxide with this year's methane pollution. There is a lot more CO2. However, because methane is over 80 times in the short term, methane will cause as much. And methane is easier to control. So what was on that rocket? This is MethaneSAT. It's one of thousands of active. But it's my favorite. Not just because we helped put it there, but because we designed it for a purpose. And soon. For the past 20 years, my job has been to understand climate to be a bridge between scientists, ensuring that we're all working. And the vision for MethaneSAT putting it in the hands of people. Now methane comes from several sources. It comes from cows, it comes from landfills, it comes from coal mines. And a lot of it comes from leaks. For a while, we've known what the overall concentration. But we haven't been able and tell how much was coming from where. In fact, companies and governments because they simply. But now they will. When we looked at the data we realized that we would never get. We simply cannot fly an airplane in the world every day. We realized that we needed using a satellite. And that satellite would need. So we went to the world's. And they helped us build two spectrometers that would allow us to see from 590 kilometers away, from space. They had to develop to create a prism how even the smallest concentrations. It's pretty amazing. To give you a sense I'd like to show you some images that will show how we'll see. We'll be able to zoom in and out and circle back weekly to see. MethaneSAT will show the total picture, not just point sources or large leaks, but also the smaller, that actually make up the majority. MethaneSAT will show how much methane. Now you're the first to see this data. It's raw data that came. It's spectral imagery. But after we do our analysis on it, we still have to solve a people challenge. So we'll put our analysis who can take action. That would be government regulators, the companies themselves and nonprofits who will be receiving. Fixing leaks is actually. Often it's as easy. Companies know how to do this. It's just a matter of priority. And that's what I mean. Environmental Defense Fund. As the first environmental nonprofit we are supporting both MethaneSAT would not exist some of whom are a part. We'd like to thank you. We'd also like to thank like the New Zealand Space Agency, who have invested in MethaneSAT but also to better understand. With powerful data our goal is to reduce methane emissions by 75 percent in the next six years. That's 75 percent. It's a lot, and we have momentum. Fifty companies representing 40 percent have already pledged to cut by 2030. Over 150 countries have signed to be a part of the solution. Purchasers can also influence sellers. The largest importer, the European Union, is already taking steps to apply to imports and setting in place rules that have the least methane emissions. And MethaneSAT. It's powerful when countries. But it's even more powerful because it provides for people to fulfill their commitments. This kind of radical transparency. It's what makes me hopeful. With MethaneSAT in space. Let's do everything we can to slow the rate of global warming. Thank you.
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Lots of people are really. My husband, my daughters love rockets and pretty much anything. It's never really been my thing. However, I recently went and I can honestly say. And the emotion that I felt. It was hope. Because my colleagues and I helped. That will address the single to affect climate change in our lifetimes. We often hear about things we can do and the Earth that they'll inherit. And everything we're doing will certainly help in the long run. But what if we could do something. I believe we can. Methane is a highly potent. Let's compare this year's carbon dioxide with this year's methane pollution. There is a lot more CO two. However, because methane is over eighty times in the short term, methane will cause as much. And methane is easier to control. So what was on that rocket? This is MethaneSAT. It's one of thousands of active. But it's my favorite. Not just because we helped put it there, but because we designed it for a purpose. And soon. For the past twenty years, my job has been to understand climate to be a bridge between scientists, ensuring that we're all working. And the vision for MethaneSAT putting it in the hands of people. Now methane comes from several sources. It comes from cows, it comes from landfills, it comes from coal mines. And a lot of it comes from leaks. For a while, we've known what the overall concentration. But we haven't been able and tell how much was coming from where. In fact, companies and governments because they simply. But now they will. When we looked at the data we realized that we would never get. We simply cannot fly an airplane in the world every day. We realized that we needed using a satellite. And that satellite would need. So we went to the world's. And they helped us build two spectrometers that would allow us to see from five hundred ninety kilometers away, from space. They had to develop to create a prism how even the smallest concentrations. It's pretty amazing. To give you a sense I'd like to show you some images that will show how we'll see. We'll be able to zoom in and out and circle back weekly to see. MethaneSAT will show the total picture, not just point sources or large leaks, but also the smaller, that actually make up the majority. MethaneSAT will show how much methane. Now you're the first to see this data. It's raw data that came. It's spectral imagery. But after we do our analysis on it, we still have to solve a people challenge. So we'll put our analysis who can take action. That would be government regulators, the companies themselves and nonprofits who will be receiving. Fixing leaks is actually. Often it's as easy. Companies know how to do this. It's just a matter of priority. And that's what I mean. Environmental Defense Fund. As the first environmental nonprofit we are supporting both MethaneSAT would not exist some of whom are a part. We'd like to thank you. We'd also like to thank like the New Zealand Space Agency, who have invested in MethaneSAT but also to better understand. With powerful data our goal is to reduce methane emissions by seventy-five percent in the next six years. That's seventy-five percent. It's a lot, and we have momentum. Fifty companies representing forty percent have already pledged to cut by two thousand thirty. Over one hundred fifty countries have signed to be a part of the solution. Purchasers can also influence sellers. The largest importer, the European Union, is already taking steps to apply to imports and setting in place rules that have the least methane emissions. And MethaneSAT. It's powerful when countries. But it's even more powerful because it provides for people to fulfill their commitments. This kind of radical transparency. It's what makes me hopeful. With MethaneSAT in space. Let's do everything we can to slow the rate of global warming. Thank you.
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long_en_1
|
talk_en
| 1,052 |
en
|
Are there any other parents here who have struggled to get. So, you know, right? It's like herding kittens. My wife and I would start long before it was time to leave, but that obviously wasn't working because we were always. But one day was a complete Gong Show. Five minutes before we needed I found my oldest daughter. My middle daughter was playing the piano, and my youngest daughter. So I told them, "Stop reading, put on your socks." Five minutes later, nobody was in the car. On my way to help my youngest I noticed my oldest daughter. Now I'm starting to lose it. Her response? "I didn't hear you." But before I could say a word. And that's the story. The end. I just wanted my daughters for getting out the door on time. But then I remembered something. You can't inspire accountability in others until you model it yourself. That's when I realized I wasn't taking. I was blaming it totally on my daughters. So I tried a different approach. What was I doing, or not doing, that may be contributing to this problem? Then it hit me. I knew when they needed groomed and ready to leave. But did they? I also knew what time it was, but there were no clocks, which I discovered is like where time ceases to exist. Solution. I put big clocks everywhere and posted the schedule in a common area. And you know what? It actually worked. Now we're not perfect, but it's much better than it was. I had fallen into the same trap that many people in leadership, which is blaming other without considering my part in it. While working with leadership teams, I discovered three powerful habits. I call it the three habits. Habit one: Don't blame. Habit two: Look in the mirror. Habit three: Engineer the solution. This sequence of habits has an almost. And you get better results. But this isn't just for CEOs and managers. We're all trying to help. As a parent, a coworker or a volunteer. Here's why these habits work. Habit one: Don't blame. Think about the last time. How did it turn out? Probably not well. That's because our brains interpret blame the same way they interpret. Blame triggers, which effectively shuts down, which is the problem-solving. So when I was getting angry, it wasn't motivating them. It was actually impairing. Researcher Dr. Amy Edmondson to see how culture affects to report medical errors. She expected that the high-performing, but to her surprise, they reported more errors. Why? Because when people they're more willing to admit. But in cultures of blame, or point their finger at someone else. No one is going to take accountability if they think they're going to be. Blame destroys teamwork, problem solving, learning and initiative. In other words, blame. So what should we do instead? Habit two: Look in the mirror. Most of us are really good at noticing but we're not so good at noticing. One time, my assistant helped me mail out to prospective clients. Three weeks later, no responses. So I checked one of the cover letters. It read, "Dear Mr. Smith, [insert company name here.]" She missed one of the variable. Thousands of dollars down the drain. Now, she felt awful and said, I was thinking, "You are darn right." But then I looked in the mirror and I realized I didn't highlight like they are in all our other templates. If I had, she couldn't have missed it. Now I'm not saying. But if I look closely enough I can usually discover contributed to them in some way. This is a profound insight because if I can see my part in a problem, I can do something about it. The next time you encounter. Ask yourself: How may I. I taught these principles and followed up a few weeks later. A project manager told me, "Our general manager is a total blamer, and team meetings." But the week after you taught that meeting went very differently. When our general manager he was about to lay into the person. But then he stopped, put his head in his hand for a moment, then looked up and said, 'This is how I think.' The mood in that meeting. And then I saw something. Other people began, 'No, boss, it wasn't just your fault. This is how I think.' When leaders acknowledge it makes it safe for everybody. And if nobody else follows suit, then you've earned. "And how may you have contributed Before others will allow us they must first see us." Now what if the cause of your problem. Habit three: Engineer the solution. When bad things happen, our brains are hardwired to blame the person closest to the mess. Fortunately, there's a fix. It's called "systems thinking," which is noticing how environment. Systems thinking emerged toward when the US Air Force noticed that a lot of their planes were crashing. Their conclusion? "Our pilots are idiots." So they engaged some consultants to help them select. When the consultants investigated, they discovered they didn't have. They had a cockpit problem. For instance, pilots confused gear handles if they were located. Or they mixed up controls if they were in a different position. Design better cockpits, and you'll have fewer crashes. So the US Air Force by simplifying cockpit design. Similarly, when I stopped I noticed the environmental factors. I engineered the solution so they had the information. Instead of asking, "Whose fault is this?" Ask: "Where did the process break down?" This question is your secret weapon and find sustainable solutions. Remember, you can't inspire accountability in others until you model it yourself. The next time you encounter a problem, test this sequence of habits. Don't blame. Look in the mirror. Be the change that you want to see in others. Our world is in desperate who take ownership. In our workplaces, our homes and in our society. And the secret is, as you model these behaviors, so will those around you. It's kind of magic. Thank you.
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Are there any other parents here who have struggled to get. So, you know, right? It's like herding kittens. My wife and I would start long before it was time to leave, but that obviously wasn't working because we were always. But one day was a complete Gong Show. five minutes before we needed I found my oldest daughter. My middle daughter was playing the piano, and my youngest daughter. So I told them, "Stop reading, put on your socks." five minutes later, nobody was in the car. On my way to help my youngest I noticed my oldest daughter. Now I'm starting to lose it. Her response? "I didn't hear you." But before I could say a word. And that's the story. The end. I just wanted my daughters for getting out the door on time. But then I remembered something. You can't inspire accountability in others until you model it yourself. That's when I realized I wasn't taking. I was blaming it totally on my daughters. So I tried a different approach. What was I doing, or not doing, that may be contributing to this problem? Then it hit me. I knew when they needed groomed and ready to leave. But did they? I also knew what time it was, but there were no clocks, which I discovered is like where time ceases to exist. Solution. I put big clocks everywhere and posted the schedule in a common area. And you know what? It actually worked. Now we're not perfect, but it's much better than it was. I had fallen into the same trap that many people in leadership, which is blaming other without considering my part in it. While working with leadership teams, I discovered three powerful habits. I call it the three habits. Habit one: Don't blame. Habit two: Look in the mirror. Habit three: Engineer the solution. This sequence of habits has an almost. And you get better results. But this isn't just for CEOs and managers. We're all trying to help. As a parent, a coworker or a volunteer. Here's why these habits work. Habit one: Don't blame. Think about the last time. How did it turn out? Probably not well. That's because our brains interpret blame the same way they interpret. Blame triggers, which effectively shuts down, which is the problem-solving. So when I was getting angry, it wasn't motivating them. It was actually impairing. Researcher Dr. Amy Edmondson to see how culture affects to report medical errors. She expected that the high-performing, but to her surprise, they reported more errors. Why? Because when people they're more willing to admit. But in cultures of blame, or point their finger at someone else. No one is going to take accountability if they think they're going to be. Blame destroys teamwork, problem solving, learning and initiative. In other words, blame. So what should we do instead? Habit two: Look in the mirror. Most of us are really good at noticing but we're not so good at noticing. One time, my assistant helped me mail out to prospective clients. Three weeks later, no responses. So I checked one of the cover letters. It read, "Dear Mr. Smith, [insert company name here.]" She missed one of the variable. Thousands of dollars down the drain. Now, she felt awful and said, I was thinking, "You are darn right." But then I looked in the mirror and I realized I didn't highlight like they are in all our other templates. If I had, she couldn't have missed it. Now I'm not saying. But if I look closely enough I can usually discover contributed to them in some way. This is a profound insight because if I can see my part in a problem, I can do something about it. The next time you encounter. Ask yourself: How may I. I taught these principles and followed up a few weeks later. A project manager told me, "Our general manager is a total blamer, and team meetings." But the week after you taught that meeting went very differently. When our general manager he was about to lay into the person. But then he stopped, put his head in his hand for a moment, then looked up and said, 'This is how I think.' The mood in that meeting. And then I saw something. Other people began, 'No, boss, it wasn't just your fault. This is how I think.' When leaders acknowledge it makes it safe for everybody. And if nobody else follows suit, then you've earned. "And how may you have contributed Before others will allow us they must first see us." Now what if the cause of your problem. Habit three: Engineer the solution. When bad things happen, our brains are hardwired to blame the person closest to the mess. Fortunately, there's a fix. It's called "systems thinking," which is noticing how environment. Systems thinking emerged toward when the US Air Force noticed that a lot of their planes were crashing. Their conclusion? "Our pilots are idiots." So they engaged some consultants to help them select. When the consultants investigated, they discovered they didn't have. They had a cockpit problem. For instance, pilots confused gear handles if they were located. Or they mixed up controls if they were in a different position. Design better cockpits, and you'll have fewer crashes. So the US Air Force by simplifying cockpit design. Similarly, when I stopped I noticed the environmental factors. I engineered the solution so they had the information. Instead of asking, "Whose fault is this?" Ask: "Where did the process break down?" This question is your secret weapon and find sustainable solutions. Remember, you can't inspire accountability in others until you model it yourself. The next time you encounter a problem, test this sequence of habits. Don't blame. Look in the mirror. Be the change that you want to see in others. Our world is in desperate who take ownership. In our workplaces, our homes and in our society. And the secret is, as you model these behaviors, so will those around you. It's kind of magic. Thank you.
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Brian S. Lowery: If you could produce now everybody's having. Like now, what I worry with all these kind of technologies: we all inhabit our own singular world. That is more frightening to me that we all converged. BSL: So what makes a human a human? Kylan Gibbs: It’s one of, I mean, there's like. One is from my personal life. One thing that's interesting is like, there's been points four to five hours a day. And the interesting thing that happens when you first start interacting with it, Similarly when people first had wow, this is like real life. But then as you get used to it, the things that make it less authentic. And I think something there's certain ways that we interact. There's something about the predictability about the spontaneity of being human. The ways they communicate. These little things that all add up. That's on the technical side. On the other side, there's something of just the shared that actually I think differentiates it. You know, you have and then you start to resonate. I feel like every time I've had it opened up a new door of empathy. Oh man, that really hurt, you know? Or like when you cry. And then you start to remember. I start crying about something, and then I think about all the things and the things that they felt. And I feel like there's something where we have these things we’re all different people. But there’s something that it all kind of arises from that. Anyway, that's one thought. BSL: I love that answer, and I want to say. Here's why I don't think you're normal. People anthropomorphize anything. It doesn't have to even. It doesn't have to be for people to treat it. People treat their cars. So I'm surprised that when it feels less real to you. KG: There's something about resolution. It's like the way of seeing the world. It's like the same reason. And it's someone I think who worked. The interesting thing about it was you're like, oh, the real world. And it's actually really hard. And I think the same is true for AI, when they interact with it, the thing that they see. But the thing that I always notice is, this is very different from. Even when it says something similar. It's those little things. That's like I think what, as people use AI more, and I can't even point at them like, that make us human? BSL: You just know it and it's missing an AI. I mean that's also interesting because what you just suggested: the less real it's going. Do you think that's KG: I mean, there's probably it's the same way as, you know, your Instagram and Facebook feed. There are certainly, kids especially. And feel like, oh, that's a real or my favorite celebrities when it's like completely -- largely false. And I do think something similar where some people for sure. And they will believe that that's the most and then start to compare people to that. But I think that, you know, you'll be like, oh. It's the same way even if you use. It's hard to pick it up. But like, I’m not picking up, and it's the very little nuances that you probably. BSL: So you don't think is going to advance quickly enough, where it’ll overcome those little things. You're not worried about that? KG: I am definitely worried about that. Mainly because because I think. So the thing about AI is it's so beholden, at least if you think it's so beholden to what we want. And that's kind of a lot of people want is the sense of control. And the AI gives you the sense that, like, I can control this anthropomorphic thing. And honestly, one of my fears. And what does it mean when that is beholden to only and then I go and interact with a human? BSL: Do you think people want control? I think people want to be controlled. KG: Maybe it's a form of control, though. To be controlled. BSL: Yeah, people want the world. KG: Yes, yes, I think they also. There's something about, like. So, like, I've even felt it a mental health moment. You have friends who have. The things that I've is your brain and your mind even if it's worse. So if you're in like a depressed state, you almost would rather like stick in that. So there's something rather than actually better. And I don't know, there's a bias you almost identifying then. BSL: Yeah, there's research on this. One, it's called the status quo bias. People like things that are already there. And two, people like to have what they if they really believe them. So that is true. So, like, what does that look like in AI? KG: I mean, it's definitely interesting. You talk to a lot of these things and they sound like AI, because it's kind of. If you start to add lots of personalities it makes sense in context, that as we started developing that people interact with, they all have this kind of similar voice. And it's a very "AI voice." You can kind of tell. Maybe that’s intentional. But there is something there, where like, to getting what they want and from AI, from AI. But that could blend, there's already lots of, you know, people in certain demographics and they start to identify, that's their favorite form. And so I do think as we move into the future, there will be people who bias. Whether it's the comfort of knowing whether it's like the format that will kind of bias towards. But on the other hand, I always think there’ll be a distribution of people, and you'll have some people. And, you know, like I was saying, the more that I interact with it now, because I just pick up that you're like, I can't even use it. And, you know, you'd think I’m in the AI space, I don't need AI for a single bit of it because it does remove that voice. And I do also wonder, though, as people interact with it more, will they either identify the differences or start to conform to the things? It's the same as if you interact. You start to be biased because you're talking so much. BSL: You mean they're training you? KG: They're training you. Your partner is probably like, you know, they have a preferred way. You get used to it, these kinds of things. So I do wonder if, as people that they'll kind of all converge. That's probably one. BSL: I'm concerned. I'm going to shift a little bit. So when we talk about AI, it's usually like dyadic interactions. Like, I'm interacting. But really what people do is interact. You interact in some community. And I'm surprised that there's.
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Brian S. Lowery: If you could produce now everybody's having. Like now, what I worry with all these kind of technologies: we all inhabit our own singular world. That is more frightening to me that we all converged. BSL: So what makes a human a human? Kylan Gibbs: It’s one of, I mean, there's like. One is from my personal life. One thing that's interesting is like, there's been points four to five hours a day. And the interesting thing that happens when you first start interacting with it, Similarly when people first had wow, this is like real life. But then as you get used to it, the things that make it less authentic. And I think something there's certain ways that we interact. There's something about the predictability about the spontaneity of being human. The ways they communicate. These little things that all add up. That's on the technical side. On the other side, there's something of just the shared that actually I think differentiates it. You know, you have and then you start to resonate. I feel like every time I've had it opened up a new door of empathy. Oh man, that really hurt, you know? Or like when you cry. And then you start to remember. I start crying about something, and then I think about all the things and the things that they felt. And I feel like there's something where we have these things we’re all different people. But there’s something that it all kind of arises from that. Anyway, that's one thought. BSL: I love that answer, and I want to say. Here's why I don't think you're normal. People anthropomorphize anything. It doesn't have to even. It doesn't have to be for people to treat it. People treat their cars. So I'm surprised that when it feels less real to you. KG: There's something about resolution. It's like the way of seeing the world. It's like the same reason. And it's someone I think who worked. The interesting thing about it was you're like, oh, the real world. And it's actually really hard. And I think the same is true for AI, when they interact with it, the thing that they see. But the thing that I always notice is, this is very different from. Even when it says something similar. It's those little things. That's like I think what, as people use AI more, and I can't even point at them like, that make us human? BSL: You just know it and it's missing an AI. I mean that's also interesting because what you just suggested: the less real it's going. Do you think that's KG: I mean, there's probably it's the same way as, you know, your Instagram and Facebook feed. There are certainly, kids especially. And feel like, oh, that's a real or my favorite celebrities when it's like completely -- largely false. And I do think something similar where some people for sure. And they will believe that that's the most and then start to compare people to that. But I think that, you know, you'll be like, oh. It's the same way even if you use. It's hard to pick it up. But like, I’m not picking up, and it's the very little nuances that you probably. BSL: So you don't think is going to advance quickly enough, where it’ll overcome those little things. You're not worried about that? KG: I am definitely worried about that. Mainly because because I think. So the thing about AI is it's so beholden, at least if you think it's so beholden to what we want. And that's kind of a lot of people want is the sense of control. And the AI gives you the sense that, like, I can control this anthropomorphic thing. And honestly, one of my fears. And what does it mean when that is beholden to only and then I go and interact with a human? BSL: Do you think people want control? I think people want to be controlled. KG: Maybe it's a form of control, though. To be controlled. BSL: Yeah, people want the world. KG: Yes, yes, I think they also. There's something about, like. So, like, I've even felt it a mental health moment. You have friends who have. The things that I've is your brain and your mind even if it's worse. So if you're in like a depressed state, you almost would rather like stick in that. So there's something rather than actually better. And I don't know, there's a bias you almost identifying then. BSL: Yeah, there's research on this. One, it's called the status quo bias. People like things that are already there. And two, people like to have what they if they really believe them. So that is true. So, like, what does that look like in AI? KG: I mean, it's definitely interesting. You talk to a lot of these things and they sound like AI, because it's kind of. If you start to add lots of personalities it makes sense in context, that as we started developing that people interact with, they all have this kind of similar voice. And it's a very "AI voice." You can kind of tell. Maybe that’s intentional. But there is something there, where like, to getting what they want and from AI, from AI. But that could blend, there's already lots of, you know, people in certain demographics and they start to identify, that's their favorite form. And so I do think as we move into the future, there will be people who bias. Whether it's the comfort of knowing whether it's like the format that will kind of bias towards. But on the other hand, I always think there’ll be a distribution of people, and you'll have some people. And, you know, like I was saying, the more that I interact with it now, because I just pick up that you're like, I can't even use it. And, you know, you'd think I’m in the AI space, I don't need AI for a single bit of it because it does remove that voice. And I do also wonder, though, as people interact with it more, will they either identify the differences or start to conform to the things? It's the same as if you interact. You start to be biased because you're talking so much. BSL: You mean they're training you? KG: They're training you. Your partner is probably like, you know, they have a preferred way. You get used to it, these kinds of things. So I do wonder if, as people that they'll kind of all converge. That's probably one. BSL: I'm concerned. I'm going to shift a little bit. So when we talk about AI, it's usually like dyadic interactions. Like, I'm interacting. But really what people do is interact. You interact in some community. And I'm surprised that there's.
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Against this background, this box presents developments in euro area bank bond issuance and spreads over the past years and discusses possible financial stability implications. An orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union poses a limited overall risk to euro area financial stability. But the uncertainty accompanying a cliff-edge Brexit could have the potential to pose a more significant downside risk to financial stability. ESTER (euro short-term rate) is the alternative euro risk-free rate administered by the ECB, which will replace EONIA (euro overnight index average) in 2020. The European Money Markets Institute (EMMI), the administrator of EONIA, concluded that under current market conditions, EONIA’s compliance with the EU Benchmarks Regulation (BMR) by January 2020 "cannot be warranted". This implies that the usage of EONIA, at least in new contracts, may be prohibited by law as of 1 January 2020. SESFOD is a quarterly survey launched in 2013 as a Eurosystem initiative to collect information on changes in credit terms and conditions on euro-denominated securities financing and over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets. The survey is based on 28 large banks, comprising 14 euro area banks and 14 banks with head offices outside the euro area. Banks answer questions at a quarterly frequency regarding how they changed the terms and conditions (both price and non-price) offered to their clients, as well as providing a ranking of the motivations underlying their decisions. The information collected in the survey is useful to assess financial stability, market functioning and the monetary policy transmission mechanism. The survey provides useful insights into the ability of financial intermediaries to secure funding and hedge risks. Buoyant conditions and loose terms may lead to high leverage, while excessively tight terms may provide insights into possible market dysfunctionalities. Liquidity in the Italian sovereign bond market deteriorated sharply at the end of May. Heightened political uncertainty led to a rise in Italian sovereign bond yields and triggered a short-lived flattening of the yield curve (see Chart 2.12, right panel). At the same time, liquidity conditions deteriorated significantly. On 29 May intraday bid-ask spreads increased to levels not seen since the height of the euro area sovereign debt crisis in 2011 (see Chart A, left and right panels). On the interdealer MTS platform specialised in the Italian market, the ratio of the bid-ask spread to the mid bid-ask price for the most recently issued ten-year (on-the-run) bond – a measure that moves inversely with market liquidity – rose from below 0.1% to above 5%. The resilience of the market has been adversely affected too. Orders larger than €50 million could no longer be executed at the best five prices quoted by participating dealers, according to intraday order-book data. This box describes a simple structural Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model that uses sign restrictions to determine the relative importance of distinct economic and financial shocks in shaping the co-movement of key global financial variables. The model provides intuitive and economically plausible interpretations of gyrations in key US and global asset markets over the past six months.
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Against this background, this box presents developments in euro area bank bond issuance and spreads over the past years and discusses possible financial stability implications. An orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union poses a limited overall risk to euro area financial stability. But the uncertainty accompanying a cliff-edge Brexit could have the potential to pose a more significant downside risk to financial stability. ESTER (euro short-term rate) is the alternative euro risk-free rate administered by the ECB, which will replace EONIA (euro overnight index average) in two thousand twenty. The European Money Markets Institute (EMMI), the administrator of EONIA, concluded that under current market conditions, EONIA’s compliance with the EU Benchmarks Regulation (BMR) by January two thousand twenty "cannot be warranted". This implies that the usage of EONIA, at least in new contracts, may be prohibited by law as of one January two thousand twenty. SESFOD is a quarterly survey launched in two thousand thirteen as a Eurosystem initiative to collect information on changes in credit terms and conditions on euro-denominated securities financing and over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets. The survey is based on twenty eight large banks, comprising fourteen euro area banks and fourteen banks with head offices outside the euro area. Banks answer questions at a quarterly frequency regarding how they changed the terms and conditions (both price and non-price) offered to their clients, as well as providing a ranking of the motivations underlying their decisions. The information collected in the survey is useful to assess financial stability, market functioning and the monetary policy transmission mechanism. The survey provides useful insights into the ability of financial intermediaries to secure funding and hedge risks. Buoyant conditions and loose terms may lead to high leverage, while excessively tight terms may provide insights into possible market dysfunctionalities. Liquidity in the Italian sovereign bond market deteriorated sharply at the end of May. Heightened political uncertainty led to a rise in Italian sovereign bond yields and triggered a short-lived flattening of the yield curve (see Chart two point one two, right panel). At the same time, liquidity conditions deteriorated significantly. On twenty nine May intraday bid-ask spreads increased to levels not seen since the height of the euro area sovereign debt crisis in two thousand eleven (see Chart A, left and right panels). On the interdealer MTS platform specialised in the Italian market, the ratio of the bid-ask spread to the mid bid-ask price for the most recently issued ten-year (on-the-run) bond – a measure that moves inversely with market liquidity – rose from below zero point one percent to above five percent. The resilience of the market has been adversely affected too. Orders larger than euro fifty million could no longer be executed at the best five prices quoted by participating dealers, according to intraday order-book data. This box describes a simple structural Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model that uses sign restrictions to determine the relative importance of distinct economic and financial shocks in shaping the co-movement of key global financial variables. The model provides intuitive and economically plausible interpretations of gyrations in key US and global asset markets over the past six months.
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Secondly, the growth rate of lending to this sector has also been the fastest among the non-financial sectors in recent years. The growth rate of loans extended to households in some EU countries has been very strong over recent years. There has been little sign yet of a reversion to more conventional growth patterns in 2004, and this category has been the fastest growing type of lending in the euro area for the past two years. This Special Feature concentrates on lending trends to households over the period 2002-2003, though longer periods are used where relevant. It assesses the most important exposures for euro area and EU banks to the household sector as far as the data allows.
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Secondly, the growth rate of lending to this sector has also been the fastest among the non-financial sectors in recent years. The growth rate of loans extended to households in some EU countries has been very strong over recent years. There has been little sign yet of a reversion to more conventional growth patterns in two thousand four, and this category has been the fastest growing type of lending in the euro area for the past two years. This Special Feature concentrates on lending trends to households over the period two thousand two to two thousand three, though longer periods are used where relevant. It assesses the most important exposures for euro area and EU banks to the household sector as far as the data allows.
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How many decisions or this week or this year, by artificial intelligence? I build AI for a living. So, full disclosure, I'm kind of a nerd. And because I'm kind of a nerd, wherever some new news story comes out about artificial intelligence or robots getting citizenship, I'm the person my friends freaking out about the future. We see this everywhere. This media panic that We could blame Hollywood for. But in reality, that's not the problem. There is a more pressing danger, that we need to fix first. So we are back to this question: How many decisions? And how many of these were based on your gender? Algorithms are being used all the time to make decisions about who we are. Some of the women in this room. If you've been made to sit through like 1,000 times. Or you've scrolled past adverts on your Facebook feed. Or in my case, Indian marriage bureaus. But AI isn't just being used about what products we want to buy or which show we want to binge watch next. I wonder how you'd feel about someone "A black or Latino person is less likely than a white person." "A person called John than a person called Mary." "A black man is more likely to be." You're probably thinking, "Wow, that sounds like a pretty sexist." These are some real decisions based on the biases from the humans. AI is being used to help decide how much you pay for your car insurance; how good your credit score is; and even what rating you get. But these decisions, its assumptions about our identity. How is that happening? Now, imagine an AI is helping find the next tech leader in the company. So far, the manager. So the AI learns men are more likely. And it's a very short leap from there to: men make better programmers than women. We have reinforced. And now, it's screening out. Hang on. If a human we'd be outraged, we wouldn't allow it. This kind of gender. And yet somehow, because a machine made the decision. That's not it. We are also reinforcing our bias. How often do you use a voice assistant? They all have two things in common: one, they can never get my name right, and second, they are all female. They are designed to be turning your lights on and off. You get male AIs too, like IBM Watson, Salesforce Einstein. So poor robots, even they suffer. Think about how these two things combine and affect a kid growing up. So they're doing some research and they Google images of CEO. The algorithm shows them. And now, they Google personal assistant. As you can guess. And then they want to put on some music, and now, they are barking orders. Some of our brightest minds. Technology that they could have created. And yet, they have chosen to create it. Yay! But OK, don't worry, this is not going to end that we are all heading towards. The good news about AI. We get to teach the right values. So there are three things we can do. One, we can be aware of our own biases and the bias in machines around us. Two, we can make sure that diverse teams. And three, we have to give it. I can talk about the first two. When you work in technology and you don't look like your life is a little bit difficult. Here's just one example. Like most developers, and share my knowledge to help others. And I've found, when I log on as myself, I tend to get questions "What makes you think." "What makes you think." So, as you do, I made a new profile. And this time, instead of my own picture. And I chose a name. You can probably guess. So, this time, I didn't get any of those and I was able to actually. And it sucks, guys. I've been building robots since I was 15. I have a few degrees in computer science. And yet, I had to hide my gender in order for my work. So, what's going on here? Are men just better? Another study found that when women coders on one platform their code was accepted. So this is not about the talent. This is about an elitism in AI that says a programmer. What we really need to do is bring people. We need people who can to help us create personalities of AI. We need people who can solve problems. We need people and we need people who can tell us and help us find ways. Because, when people when we build things in the right way, the possibilities are limitless. And that's what I want to end. Less racist robots, less machines and more about what technology. So, yes, some of the energy in the world of technology is going to be about. But a lot of it is going towards. Think about a pregnant woman who has to walk 17 hours to get a checkup. What if she could get diagnosis. Or think about what AI could do for those one in three women who face domestic violence. If it wasn't safe to talk out loud, they could get an AI service, get financial and legal advice. These are all real examples of projects are working on right now, using AI. So, I'm sure in the next couple of days about the existential risk, robots taking over. And when something like that happens, I know I'll get the same messages. But I feel incredibly positive. This is our chance to remake the world. But to do that, we need to build it. We need people of different genders. We need women to be the makers and not just the machines. We need to think very carefully what data we give them, so they don't just repeat. So I hope I leave you. First, I hope you leave. And that the next time that assumes you are interested or online betting websites, that you think and remember that the same technology is assuming. Or that a woman is more likely. And I hope that reminds you. And second, I hope you think about the fact that you don't need to look a certain way or have a certain background to create AI, which is going to be. You don't need to look. You can look like me. And it is up to all of us in this room to convince the governments to build AI technology for everyone, including the edge cases. And for us all to get education about this phenomenal. Because if we do that, then we've only just scratched the surface. Thank you.
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How many decisions or this week or this year, by artificial intelligence? I build AI for a living. So, full disclosure, I'm kind of a nerd. And because I'm kind of a nerd, wherever some new news story comes out about artificial intelligence or robots getting citizenship, I'm the person my friends freaking out about the future. We see this everywhere. This media panic that We could blame Hollywood for. But in reality, that's not the problem. There is a more pressing danger, that we need to fix first. So we are back to this question: How many decisions? And how many of these were based on your gender? Algorithms are being used all the time to make decisions about who we are. Some of the women in this room. If you've been made to sit through like one thousand times. Or you've scrolled past adverts on your Facebook feed. Or in my case, Indian marriage bureaus. But AI isn't just being used about what products we want to buy or which show we want to binge watch next. I wonder how you'd feel about someone "A black or Latino person is less likely than a white person." "A person called John than a person called Mary." "A black man is more likely to be." You're probably thinking, "Wow, that sounds like a pretty sexist." These are some real decisions based on the biases from the humans. AI is being used to help decide how much you pay for your car insurance; how good your credit score is; and even what rating you get. But these decisions, its assumptions about our identity. How is that happening? Now, imagine an AI is helping find the next tech leader in the company. So far, the manager. So the AI learns men are more likely. And it's a very short leap from there to: men make better programmers than women. We have reinforced. And now, it's screening out. Hang on. If a human we'd be outraged, we wouldn't allow it. This kind of gender. And yet somehow, because a machine made the decision. That's not it. We are also reinforcing our bias. How often do you use a voice assistant? They all have two things in common: one, they can never get my name right, and second, they are all female. They are designed to be turning your lights on and off. You get male AIs too, like IBM Watson, Salesforce Einstein. So poor robots, even they suffer. Think about how these two things combine and affect a kid growing up. So they're doing some research and they Google images of CEO. The algorithm shows them. And now, they Google personal assistant. As you can guess. And then they want to put on some music, and now, they are barking orders. Some of our brightest minds. Technology that they could have created. And yet, they have chosen to create it. Yay! But OK, don't worry, this is not going to end that we are all heading towards. The good news about AI. We get to teach the right values. So there are three things we can do. One, we can be aware of our own biases and the bias in machines around us. Two, we can make sure that diverse teams. And three, we have to give it. I can talk about the first two. When you work in technology and you don't look like your life is a little bit difficult. Here's just one example. Like most developers, and share my knowledge to help others. And I've found, when I log on as myself, I tend to get questions "What makes you think." "What makes you think." So, as you do, I made a new profile. And this time, instead of my own picture. And I chose a name. You can probably guess. So, this time, I didn't get any of those and I was able to actually. And it sucks, guys. I've been building robots since I was fifteen. I have a few degrees in computer science. And yet, I had to hide my gender in order for my work. So, what's going on here? Are men just better? Another study found that when women coders on one platform their code was accepted. So this is not about the talent. This is about an elitism in AI that says a programmer. What we really need to do is bring people. We need people who can to help us create personalities of AI. We need people who can solve problems. We need people and we need people who can tell us and help us find ways. Because, when people when we build things in the right way, the possibilities are limitless. And that's what I want to end. Less racist robots, less machines and more about what technology. So, yes, some of the energy in the world of technology is going to be about. But a lot of it is going towards. Think about a pregnant woman who has to walk seventeen hours to get a checkup. What if she could get diagnosis. Or think about what AI could do for those one in three women who face domestic violence. If it wasn't safe to talk out loud, they could get an AI service, get financial and legal advice. These are all real examples of projects are working on right now, using AI. So, I'm sure in the next couple of days about the existential risk, robots taking over. And when something like that happens, I know I'll get the same messages. But I feel incredibly positive. This is our chance to remake the world. But to do that, we need to build it. We need people of different genders. We need women to be the makers and not just the machines. We need to think very carefully what data we give them, so they don't just repeat. So I hope I leave you. First, I hope you leave. And that the next time that assumes you are interested or online betting websites, that you think and remember that the same technology is assuming. Or that a woman is more likely. And I hope that reminds you. And second, I hope you think about the fact that you don't need to look a certain way or have a certain background to create AI, which is going to be. You don't need to look. You can look like me. And it is up to all of us in this room to convince the governments to build AI technology for everyone, including the edge cases. And for us all to get education about this phenomenal. Because if we do that, then we've only just scratched the surface. Thank you.
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CICC suggests that US importers are largely absorbing the cost and not yet fully passing on the cost to their US customers. CICC commented that 'US importers, sandwiched in the middle of supply chains, find it difficult to fully pass costs to the end market or shift the burden entirely to exporters, so they cope by compressing profit margins.' Ultimately, these importers will likely push the cost onto their customers in the United States, thereby avoiding a sustained compression of profits. Meanwhile, it has been reported that exporter absorption of tariff costs has been much greater in Southeast Asia and Europe, than in China. CICC says this reflects the highly competitive nature of Chinese exports. Still, Chinese exports to the United States are down sharply as many importers are frustrated with much higher prices. It is reported that Chinese exporters are struggling to sell to the United States, worried that weak sales will result in idle factories. Now, things are changing. And it largely reflects the impact of a shift in US trade policy toward India. Until recently, the United States worked hard to deepen ties with India, largely as an offset to the rising power of China. Yet relations have soured following the imposition of a 50% tariff on imports from India. The stated reason for the 50% tariff was Indian purchases of Russian oil. India has indicated it will not back down. Meanwhile, China has taken advantage of the situation by trying to enhance relations with India as well as Russia. Last week, the leaders of all three countries were together in China. China’s leader said that the three countries should be partners. This was the first visit of India’s prime minister to China in seven years. Meanwhile, it is reported that China’s savers—with their US$22 trillion in liquid assets—are shifting from fixed-income products to equities, betting that China’s technological prowess will pay off for investors.
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CICC suggests that US importers are largely absorbing the cost and not yet fully passing on the cost to their US customers. CICC commented that 'US importers, sandwiched in the middle of supply chains, find it difficult to fully pass costs to the end market or shift the burden entirely to exporters, so they cope by compressing profit margins.' Ultimately, these importers will likely push the cost onto their customers in the United States, thereby avoiding a sustained compression of profits. Meanwhile, it has been reported that exporter absorption of tariff costs has been much greater in Southeast Asia and Europe, than in China. CICC says this reflects the highly competitive nature of Chinese exports. Still, Chinese exports to the United States are down sharply as many importers are frustrated with much higher prices. It is reported that Chinese exporters are struggling to sell to the United States, worried that weak sales will result in idle factories. Now, things are changing. And it largely reflects the impact of a shift in US trade policy toward India. Until recently, the United States worked hard to deepen ties with India, largely as an offset to the rising power of China. Yet relations have soured following the imposition of a fifty percent tariff on imports from India. The stated reason for the fifty percent tariff was Indian purchases of Russian oil. India has indicated it will not back down. Meanwhile, China has taken advantage of the situation by trying to enhance relations with India as well as Russia. Last week, the leaders of all three countries were together in China. China’s leader said that the three countries should be partners. This was the first visit of India’s prime minister to China in seven years. Meanwhile, it is reported that China’s savers—with their US dollar twenty two trillion in liquid assets—are shifting from fixed-income products to equities, betting that China’s technological prowess will pay off for investors.
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One explanation for this phenomenon is that the acquisition of insurance coincides largely with beliefs about economic developments. If expectations are very homogenous, this can lead to higher aggregate risk because of overly homogenous insurance schemes. On the one hand, the risks of a severe downturn may be underplayed and sow the seeds for unhedged losses. On the other hand, risks of recession may be overplayed, thereby leading to overly precautionary behaviour contributing to self-fulfilling outcomes. In either setting, when risk aversion is more homogenous, aggregate losses may be amplified. This box examines financial stability risks from disagreement in macroeconomic expectations, on the basis of a model using a disagreement metric for measuring and assessing financial stability. In the ongoing reform of the financial system, a key regulatory objective is to increase the soundness and resilience of banks. In line with this objective, regulators have placed emphasis on higher common equity capital requirements. The industry has been critical of a higher reliance on equity. Since equity is the most expensive source of capital, it is often asserted that higher equity ratios may materially increase banks’ funding costs, with adverse consequences for credit availability. Based on a sample of large international banks, this special feature provides an assessment of the relationship between banks’ equity capital, riskiness and required return on equity. Following a methodology employed in recent papers, an attempt is made to measure these relationships in the light of the hypothesis of Modigliani and Miller on the irrelevance of the capital structure for the value of the firm. The empirical evidence discussed in this special feature supports the notion that higher capital requirements tend to be associated with a decrease in the riskiness of equity returns and thus of the required risk premium, in line with the theoretical argument. This conclusion counters the industry’s concern about a material increase in funding costs and further supports the regulators’ focus on higher equity requirements. This special feature reviews trends in the credit quality of banks’ loan books over the past decade, measured by non-performing loans, based on an econometric analysis for a panel of 80 countries. The assessment of overall asset quality and credit risk in the financial sector is an important element of macro-prudential surveillance. A thorough understanding of the main drivers thus facilitates the identification of key vulnerabilities in the financial sector.Results suggest that – not surprisingly – real GDP growth has been the main driver of non-performing loans during the past decade. Exchange rate depreciations are also linked to an increase in non-performing loans in countries with a high degree of lending in foreign currencies to unhedged borrowers. In addition to these two factors, equity prices also have an impact on non-performing loans, in particular in countries with large stock markets relative to the size of the economy. Finally, interest rates also tend to affect loan quality. While these findings are found to be robust in the heterogeneous panel dataset, such results should only be applied with great caution to individual countries where additional country and sector-specific factors might have an impact on non-performing loans. Global liquidity, both in times of abundance and shortage, has a range of implications for financial stability. Surges in global liquidity may be associated with strong asset price increases, rapidly rising credit growth and – in extreme cases – excessive risk-taking among investors. Shortages of global liquidity may lead to disruptions in the functioning of financial markets and – in extreme cases – depressed investor risk appetite, leading to malfunctioning markets. This special feature takes a broad perspective and starts by defining and identifying the key drivers behind the multifaceted concept of global liquidity, all of which are related to more accommodative global financing conditions. Thereafter, a conceptual framework is proposed for how policy-makers can monitor global liquidity. This involves looking in depth at a broad set of indicators such as: (i) short-term interest rates in advanced and emerging economies; (ii) asset price valuation indicators; (iii) uncertainty, risk appetite and financial liquidity indicators; and (iv) capital flows, international reserves and cross-border credit growth. Building on this framework, the special feature also discusses policy responses to global liquidity developments from a financial stability viewpoint. The ongoing global financial crisis has demonstrated the importance of understanding the sources of systemic risk and vulnerabilities that may lead to systemic financial crises. An early identification of sources of vulnerabilities is essential as it makes it possible to take preventive, targeted policy actions. This special feature presents the Self-Organising Financial Stability Map (SOFSM), which is a novel methodology based upon data and dimensionality reduction for mapping the state of financial stability, visualising the sources of systemic risks and predicting systemic financial crises. This special feature outlines the evidence on the relationship between different bank characteristics and risk before and during the recent financial crisis. A significant amount of bank risk materialised during the crisis. It is argued that two major structural developments in the banking sector (namely deregulation and financial innovation) probably had a large effect on banks’ business models and capital levels. This, among other factors, affected banks’ incentives to take on new risks in the decade leading up to the crisis.
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One explanation for this phenomenon is that the acquisition of insurance coincides largely with beliefs about economic developments. If expectations are very homogenous, this can lead to higher aggregate risk because of overly homogenous insurance schemes. On the one hand, the risks of a severe downturn may be underplayed and sow the seeds for unhedged losses. On the other hand, risks of recession may be overplayed, thereby leading to overly precautionary behaviour contributing to self-fulfilling outcomes. In either setting, when risk aversion is more homogenous, aggregate losses may be amplified. This box examines financial stability risks from disagreement in macroeconomic expectations, on the basis of a model using a disagreement metric for measuring and assessing financial stability. In the ongoing reform of the financial system, a key regulatory objective is to increase the soundness and resilience of banks. In line with this objective, regulators have placed emphasis on higher common equity capital requirements. The industry has been critical of a higher reliance on equity. Since equity is the most expensive source of capital, it is often asserted that higher equity ratios may materially increase banks’ funding costs, with adverse consequences for credit availability. Based on a sample of large international banks, this special feature provides an assessment of the relationship between banks’ equity capital, riskiness and required return on equity. Following a methodology employed in recent papers, an attempt is made to measure these relationships in the light of the hypothesis of Modigliani and Miller on the irrelevance of the capital structure for the value of the firm. The empirical evidence discussed in this special feature supports the notion that higher capital requirements tend to be associated with a decrease in the riskiness of equity returns and thus of the required risk premium, in line with the theoretical argument. This conclusion counters the industry’s concern about a material increase in funding costs and further supports the regulators’ focus on higher equity requirements. This special feature reviews trends in the credit quality of banks’ loan books over the past decade, measured by non-performing loans, based on an econometric analysis for a panel of eighty countries. The assessment of overall asset quality and credit risk in the financial sector is an important element of macro-prudential surveillance. A thorough understanding of the main drivers thus facilitates the identification of key vulnerabilities in the financial sector.Results suggest that – not surprisingly – real GDP growth has been the main driver of non-performing loans during the past decade. Exchange rate depreciations are also linked to an increase in non-performing loans in countries with a high degree of lending in foreign currencies to unhedged borrowers. In addition to these two factors, equity prices also have an impact on non-performing loans, in particular in countries with large stock markets relative to the size of the economy. Finally, interest rates also tend to affect loan quality. While these findings are found to be robust in the heterogeneous panel dataset, such results should only be applied with great caution to individual countries where additional country and sector-specific factors might have an impact on non-performing loans. Global liquidity, both in times of abundance and shortage, has a range of implications for financial stability. Surges in global liquidity may be associated with strong asset price increases, rapidly rising credit growth and – in extreme cases – excessive risk-taking among investors. Shortages of global liquidity may lead to disruptions in the functioning of financial markets and – in extreme cases – depressed investor risk appetite, leading to malfunctioning markets. This special feature takes a broad perspective and starts by defining and identifying the key drivers behind the multifaceted concept of global liquidity, all of which are related to more accommodative global financing conditions. Thereafter, a conceptual framework is proposed for how policy-makers can monitor global liquidity. This involves looking in depth at a broad set of indicators such as: (one) short-term interest rates in advanced and emerging economies; (two) asset price valuation indicators; (three) uncertainty, risk appetite and financial liquidity indicators; and (four) capital flows, international reserves and cross-border credit growth. Building on this framework, the special feature also discusses policy responses to global liquidity developments from a financial stability viewpoint. The ongoing global financial crisis has demonstrated the importance of understanding the sources of systemic risk and vulnerabilities that may lead to systemic financial crises. An early identification of sources of vulnerabilities is essential as it makes it possible to take preventive, targeted policy actions. This special feature presents the Self-Organising Financial Stability Map (SOFSM), which is a novel methodology based upon data and dimensionality reduction for mapping the state of financial stability, visualising the sources of systemic risks and predicting systemic financial crises. This special feature outlines the evidence on the relationship between different bank characteristics and risk before and during the recent financial crisis. A significant amount of bank risk materialised during the crisis. It is argued that two major structural developments in the banking sector (namely deregulation and financial innovation) probably had a large effect on banks’ business models and capital levels. This, among other factors, affected banks’ incentives to take on new risks in the decade leading up to the crisis.
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The ability of the household sector to adapt to changing interest payments over the interest rate cycle can have potentially important consequences for financial stability. In simple terms, at an aggregate level, household exposures to changes in interest rates depend upon the share of outstanding debt whose contracted rate of interest will be subject to adjustment in the short run. The higher the share of such debt in the total, the larger the effect on interest payments. In the absence of any offsetting growth in households’ disposable income, an interest rate rise would have a negative impact on the sustainability of housing debt.
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The ability of the household sector to adapt to changing interest payments over the interest rate cycle can have potentially important consequences for financial stability. In simple terms, at an aggregate level, household exposures to changes in interest rates depend upon the share of outstanding debt whose contracted rate of interest will be subject to adjustment in the short run. The higher the share of such debt in the total, the larger the effect on interest payments. In the absence of any offsetting growth in households’ disposable income, an interest rate rise would have a negative impact on the sustainability of housing debt.
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Black American women face disproportionately high rates of maternal mortality and morbidity. Better research and care can transform health outcomes and boost the economy by $25 billion. Conventional wisdom holds that women live longer and healthier lives than men—but that’s only partly true. Globally, women may outlive men, but they spend 25 percent more of their lives in poor health. For Black women in the United States, the picture is even more troubling. Maternal-mortality rates are two to four times higher for Black women than for White, Hispanic, or Asian women, reaching 50 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2023. If current trends continue, that rate could nearly double to 94 deaths per 100,000 live births by 2040, placing the United States on par with many low-income countries. Mortality is only part of the story. Black American women are disproportionately affected by a range of potentially debilitating maternal-health conditions, including preeclampsia, gestational diabetes, and postpartum depression. An analysis by the McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility (IEM) and McKinsey Health Institute (MHI) finds that these conditions not only pose immediate health risks but also have long-term consequences. In 2025 alone, these conditions could result in the loss of 350,000 healthy life years for Black women giving birth—meaning that disability and chronic illness connected to maternal health may shape a substantial portion of their lives. This health gap extends from mothers to infants. Black infants in the United States are more than twice as likely to die as their White, Hispanic, and Asian peers.
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Black American women face disproportionately high rates of maternal mortality and morbidity. Better research and care can transform health outcomes and boost the economy by twenty five billion dollars. Conventional wisdom holds that women live longer and healthier lives than men—but that’s only partly true. Globally, women may outlive men, but they spend twenty five percent more of their lives in poor health. For Black women in the United States, the picture is even more troubling. Maternal-mortality rates are two to four times higher for Black women than for White, Hispanic, or Asian women, reaching fifty deaths per one hundred thousand live births in two thousand twenty three. If current trends continue, that rate could nearly double to ninety four deaths per one hundred thousand live births by two thousand forty, placing the United States on par with many low-income countries. Mortality is only part of the story. Black American women are disproportionately affected by a range of potentially debilitating maternal-health conditions, including preeclampsia, gestational diabetes, and postpartum depression. An analysis by the McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility (IEM) and McKinsey Health Institute (MHI) finds that these conditions not only pose immediate health risks but also have long-term consequences. In two thousand twenty five alone, these conditions could result in the loss of three hundred fifty thousand healthy life years for Black women giving birth—meaning that disability and chronic illness connected to maternal health may shape a substantial portion of their lives. This health gap extends from mothers to infants. Black infants in the United States are more than twice as likely to die as their White, Hispanic, and Asian peers.
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This is why I wear gray and black most of the time, and I have to take my wife with me to chose clothes. And I'd always wanted to be a fighter pilot when I was a boy. I loved watching planes barrel over our holiday home in the countryside. And it was my boyhood dream to be a fighter pilot. And I did the tests in the Royal Air Force to become a pilot, and sure enough, I failed. I couldn't see all the blinking different lights. And I can't distinguish color. So I had to choose another career. And this was in fact relatively easy for me, because I had an abiding passion all the way through my childhood, which was international relations. As a child, I read the newspaper thoroughly. I was fascinated by the Cold War, by the INF negotiations over intermediate-range nuclear missiles, the proxy war between the Soviet Union and the U.S. in Angola or Afghanistan. These things really interested me. And so I decided quite at an early age I wanted to be a diplomat. And I, one day, I announced this to my parents -- and my father denies this story to this day -- I said, "Daddy, I want to be a diplomat." And he turned to me, and he said, "Carne, you have to be very clever to be a diplomat." And my ambition was sealed. In 1989, I entered the British Foreign Service. That year, 5,000 people applied to become a diplomat, and 20 of us succeeded. And as those numbers suggest, I was inducted into an elite and fascinating and exhilarating world. Being a diplomat, then and now, is an incredible job, and I loved every minute of it -- I enjoyed the status of it. I bought myself a nice suit and wore leather-soled shoes and reveled in this amazing access I had to world events. I traveled to the Gaza Strip. I headed the Middle East Peace Process section in the British Foreign Ministry. I became a speechwriter for the British Foreign Secretary. I met Yasser Arafat. I negotiated with Saddam's diplomats at the U.N. Later, I traveled to Kabul and served in Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban. And I would travel in a C-130 transport and go and visit warlords in mountain hideaways and negotiate with them about how we were going to eradicate Al Qaeda from Afghanistan, surrounded by my Special Forces escort, who, themselves, had to have an escort of a platoon of Royal Marines, because it was so dangerous. And that was exciting -- that was fun. It was really interesting. And it's a great cadre of people, incredibly close-knit community of people. And the pinnacle of my career, as it turned out, was when I was posted to New York. I'd already served in Germany, Norway, various other places, but I was posted to New York to serve on the U.N. Security Council for the British delegation. And my responsibility was the Middle East, which was my specialty. And there, I dealt with things like the Middle East peace process, the Lockerbie issue -- we can talk about that later, if you wish -- but above all, my responsibility was Iraq and its weapons of mass destruction and the sanctions we placed on Iraq to oblige it to disarm itself of these weapons. I was the chief British negotiator on the subject, and I was steeped in the issue. And anyway, my tour -- it was kind of a very exciting time. I mean it was very dramatic diplomacy. We went through several wars during my time in New York. I negotiated for my country the resolution in the Security Council of the 12th of September 2001 condemning the attacks of the day before, which were, of course, deeply present to us actually living in New York at the time. So it was kind of the best of time, worst of times kind of experience. I lived the high-life. Although I worked very long hours, I lived in a penthouse in Union Square. I was a single British diplomat in New York City; you can imagine what that might have meant. I had a good time. But in 2002, when my tour came to an end, I decided I wasn't going to go back to the job that was waiting for me in London. I decided to take a sabbatical, in fact, at the New School, Bruce. In some inchoate, inarticulate way I realized that there was something wrong with my work, with me. I was exhausted, and I was also disillusioned in a way I couldn't quite put my finger on. And I decided to take some time out from work. The Foreign Office was very generous. You could take these special unpaid leave, as they called them, and yet remain part of the diplomatic service, but not actually do any work. It was nice. And eventually, I decided to take a secondment to join the U.N. in Kosovo, which was then under U.N. administration. And two things happened in Kosovo, which kind of, again, shows the randomness of life, because these things turned out to be two of the pivots of my life and helped to deliver me to the next stage. But they were random things. One was that, in the summer of 2004, the British government, somewhat reluctantly, decided to have an official inquiry into the use of intelligence on WMD in the run up to the Iraq War, a very limited subject. And I testified to that inquiry in secret. I had been steeped in the intelligence on Iraq and its WMD, and my testimony to the inquiry said three things: that the government exaggerated the intelligence, which was very clear in all the years I'd read it. And indeed, our own internal assessment was very clear that Iraq's WMD did not pose a threat to its neighbors, let alone to us. Secondly, the government had ignored all available alternatives to war, which in some ways was a more discreditable thing still. The third reason, I won't go into. But anyway, I gave that testimony, and that presented me with a crisis. What was I going to do? This testimony was deeply critical of my colleagues, of my ministers, who had, in my view had perpetrated a war on a falsehood. And so I was in crisis. And this wasn't a pretty thing. I moaned about it, I hesitated, I went on and on and on to my long-suffering wife, and eventually I decided to resign from the British Foreign Service.
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This is why I wear gray and black most of the time, and I have to take my wife with me to chose clothes. And I'd always wanted to be a fighter pilot when I was a boy. I loved watching planes barrel over our holiday home in the countryside. And it was my boyhood dream to be a fighter pilot. And I did the tests in the Royal Air Force to become a pilot, and sure enough, I failed. I couldn't see all the blinking different lights. And I can't distinguish color. So I had to choose another career. And this was in fact relatively easy for me, because I had an abiding passion all the way through my childhood, which was international relations. As a child, I read the newspaper thoroughly. I was fascinated by the Cold War, by the INF negotiations over intermediate-range nuclear missiles, the proxy war between the Soviet Union and the U.S. in Angola or Afghanistan. These things really interested me. And so I decided quite at an early age I wanted to be a diplomat. And I, one day, I announced this to my parents -- and my father denies this story to this day -- I said, "Daddy, I want to be a diplomat." And he turned to me, and he said, "Carne, you have to be very clever to be a diplomat." And my ambition was sealed. In nineteen eighty-nine, I entered the British Foreign Service. That year, five thousand people applied to become a diplomat, and twenty of us succeeded. And as those numbers suggest, I was inducted into an elite and fascinating and exhilarating world. Being a diplomat, then and now, is an incredible job, and I loved every minute of it -- I enjoyed the status of it. I bought myself a nice suit and wore leather-soled shoes and reveled in this amazing access I had to world events. I traveled to the Gaza Strip. I headed the Middle East Peace Process section in the British Foreign Ministry. I became a speechwriter for the British Foreign Secretary. I met Yasser Arafat. I negotiated with Saddam's diplomats at the U.N. Later, I traveled to Kabul and served in Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban. And I would travel in a C one hundred thirty transport and go and visit warlords in mountain hideaways and negotiate with them about how we were going to eradicate Al Qaeda from Afghanistan, surrounded by my Special Forces escort, who, themselves, had to have an escort of a platoon of Royal Marines, because it was so dangerous. And that was exciting -- that was fun. It was really interesting. And it's a great cadre of people, incredibly close-knit community of people. And the pinnacle of my career, as it turned out, was when I was posted to New York. I'd already served in Germany, Norway, various other places, but I was posted to New York to serve on the U.N. Security Council for the British delegation. And my responsibility was the Middle East, which was my specialty. And there, I dealt with things like the Middle East peace process, the Lockerbie issue -- we can talk about that later, if you wish -- but above all, my responsibility was Iraq and its weapons of mass destruction and the sanctions we placed on Iraq to oblige it to disarm itself of these weapons. I was the chief British negotiator on the subject, and I was steeped in the issue. And anyway, my tour -- it was kind of a very exciting time. I mean it was very dramatic diplomacy. We went through several wars during my time in New York. I negotiated for my country the resolution in the Security Council of the twelfth of September two thousand one condemning the attacks of the day before, which were, of course, deeply present to us actually living in New York at the time. So it was kind of the best of time, worst of times kind of experience. I lived the high-life. Although I worked very long hours, I lived in a penthouse in Union Square. I was a single British diplomat in New York City; you can imagine what that might have meant. I had a good time. But in two thousand two, when my tour came to an end, I decided I wasn't going to go back to the job that was waiting for me in London. I decided to take a sabbatical, in fact, at the New School, Bruce. In some inchoate, inarticulate way I realized that there was something wrong with my work, with me. I was exhausted, and I was also disillusioned in a way I couldn't quite put my finger on. And I decided to take some time out from work. The Foreign Office was very generous. You could take these special unpaid leave, as they called them, and yet remain part of the diplomatic service, but not actually do any work. It was nice. And eventually, I decided to take a secondment to join the U.N. in Kosovo, which was then under U.N. administration. And two things happened in Kosovo, which kind of, again, shows the randomness of life, because these things turned out to be two of the pivots of my life and helped to deliver me to the next stage. But they were random things. One was that, in the summer of two thousand four, the British government, somewhat reluctantly, decided to have an official inquiry into the use of intelligence on WMD in the run up to the Iraq War, a very limited subject. And I testified to that inquiry in secret. I had been steeped in the intelligence on Iraq and its WMD, and my testimony to the inquiry said three things: that the government exaggerated the intelligence, which was very clear in all the years I'd read it. And indeed, our own internal assessment was very clear that Iraq's WMD did not pose a threat to its neighbors, let alone to us. Secondly, the government had ignored all available alternatives to war, which in some ways was a more discreditable thing still. The third reason, I won't go into. But anyway, I gave that testimony, and that presented me with a crisis. What was I going to do? This testimony was deeply critical of my colleagues, of my ministers, who had, in my view had perpetrated a war on a falsehood. And so I was in crisis. And this wasn't a pretty thing. I moaned about it, I hesitated, I went on and on and on to my long-suffering wife, and eventually I decided to resign from the British Foreign Service.
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First, the banking sector may be directly exposed to non-bank financial institutions through equity investment or credit claims. Credit claims often arise in connection with prime brokerage services through which non-bank financial firms increase their leverage. In addition, the liquidity credit lines that provide non-financial firms with a backstop against an outflow of their short-term liabilities could also give rise to a significant exposure. Second, non-bank financial institutions play an important role in the funding of the banking sector by investing in bank debt securities and providing liquidity through secured money markets, as well as through the provision of collateral. Third, banks and non-bank financial institutions are also indirectly interconnected through common exposures to assets. Distress in one of these sectors may give rise to asset fire sales, which would depress the prices of assets held by the other sector and, through mark-to-market accounting, adversely impact the profits and capital of that sector. Many emerging market economies (EMEs) are facing a difficult combination of slow growth, weak commodity prices, and further tightening credit conditions. These challenging aggregate conditions point to the potential for negative spillovers to the euro area. Direct exposures of euro area banks to emerging market assets remain limited (see Box 1 of the May 2016 FSR).
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First, the banking sector may be directly exposed to non-bank financial institutions through equity investment or credit claims. Credit claims often arise in connection with prime brokerage services through which non-bank financial firms increase their leverage. In addition, the liquidity credit lines that provide non-financial firms with a backstop against an outflow of their short-term liabilities could also give rise to a significant exposure. Second, non-bank financial institutions play an important role in the funding of the banking sector by investing in bank debt securities and providing liquidity through secured money markets, as well as through the provision of collateral. Third, banks and non-bank financial institutions are also indirectly interconnected through common exposures to assets. Distress in one of these sectors may give rise to asset fire sales, which would depress the prices of assets held by the other sector and, through mark-to-market accounting, adversely impact the profits and capital of that sector. Many emerging market economies (EMEs) are facing a difficult combination of slow growth, weak commodity prices, and further tightening credit conditions. These challenging aggregate conditions point to the potential for negative spillovers to the euro area. Direct exposures of euro area banks to emerging market assets remain limited (see Box one of the May two thousand sixteen FSR).
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The specific set of tools analysed are those designed to contain the "cross-sectional" dimension of systemic risk – that is, those designed to limit the systemic risk stemming from factors such as correlations and common exposures across financial institutions. These include tools such as large exposure limits and other regulatory requirements designed to limit the spread of systemic risk between banks. The analysis rests on the basic notion that interbank network structures, and hence the risk of contagion across the banking system in response to shocks, are influenced by banks’ optimising behaviour subject to regulatory (and other) constraints. Changes in macro-prudential policy parameters, such as large exposure limits, capital charges on counterparty exposures and capital and liquidity requirements more generally, will affect the contagion risk because of their impact on banks’ asset allocation and interbank funding decisions. This in turn implies that well-tailored macro-prudential policy can help reduce interbank contagion risk by making network structures more resilient. The analysis shows that to capture the full extent of potential interbank contagion, all of the different layers of bank interaction should be taken into account. Hence, if the regulator only focuses on one segment of interbank relationships (e.g. direct bilateral exposures), the true contagion risks are likely to be grossly underestimated. This finding has clear policy implications and flags the importance of micro- and macro-prudential regulators having access to sufficiently detailed data so as to be able to map the many interactions between banks. While the global financial crisis has seen many phases, a main feature has been the interplay of risks across various economic and financial sectors, even culminating in outright risk transfer in some cases. Prominent examples have included the spillover of fragilities from the financial sector to the broader economy and from the banking sector to the sovereign sector. In monitoring the propensity for such phenomena to occur and in evaluating their impact, direct (i.e. accounting) linkages tend to understate risks. Earlier and more robust signals of the possibility for cross-sectoral linkages to cause systemic stress can be obtained via contingent claims analysis (CCA), which augments cross-sectoral linkages on the basis of the main tenets of financial option pricing. A popular financial services model in Europe is a melding of banking and insurance activities together under one roof – or so-called bancassurance groups. These arrangements can yield many benefits, including economies of size and scope, and sectoral diversification can reduce income and balance sheet volatility. The financial crisis, however, also highlighted the fragilities of this model, with recourse to state aid by several financial groups with significant banking and insurance activities. First, the complexity and the inherent opacity of the structure pose challenges in terms of risk management, market discipline and supervisory control. Second, the multiple use of regulatory capital may overstate the capacity of a group to absorb losses – either across the various regulated entities within the group (double or multiple gearing) or through the use of debt issued at the holding company level to acquire equity stakes in subsidiaries (double leverage).
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The specific set of tools analysed are those designed to contain the "cross-sectional" dimension of systemic risk – that is, those designed to limit the systemic risk stemming from factors such as correlations and common exposures across financial institutions. These include tools such as large exposure limits and other regulatory requirements designed to limit the spread of systemic risk between banks. The analysis rests on the basic notion that interbank network structures, and hence the risk of contagion across the banking system in response to shocks, are influenced by banks’ optimising behaviour subject to regulatory (and other) constraints. Changes in macro-prudential policy parameters, such as large exposure limits, capital charges on counterparty exposures and capital and liquidity requirements more generally, will affect the contagion risk because of their impact on banks’ asset allocation and interbank funding decisions. This in turn implies that well-tailored macro-prudential policy can help reduce interbank contagion risk by making network structures more resilient. The analysis shows that to capture the full extent of potential interbank contagion, all of the different layers of bank interaction should be taken into account. Hence, if the regulator only focuses on one segment of interbank relationships (e.g. direct bilateral exposures), the true contagion risks are likely to be grossly underestimated. This finding has clear policy implications and flags the importance of micro- and macro-prudential regulators having access to sufficiently detailed data so as to be able to map the many interactions between banks. While the global financial crisis has seen many phases, a main feature has been the interplay of risks across various economic and financial sectors, even culminating in outright risk transfer in some cases. Prominent examples have included the spillover of fragilities from the financial sector to the broader economy and from the banking sector to the sovereign sector. In monitoring the propensity for such phenomena to occur and in evaluating their impact, direct (i.e. accounting) linkages tend to understate risks. Earlier and more robust signals of the possibility for cross-sectoral linkages to cause systemic stress can be obtained via contingent claims analysis (CCA), which augments cross-sectoral linkages on the basis of the main tenets of financial option pricing. A popular financial services model in Europe is a melding of banking and insurance activities together under one roof – or so-called bancassurance groups. These arrangements can yield many benefits, including economies of size and scope, and sectoral diversification can reduce income and balance sheet volatility. The financial crisis, however, also highlighted the fragilities of this model, with recourse to state aid by several financial groups with significant banking and insurance activities. First, the complexity and the inherent opacity of the structure pose challenges in terms of risk management, market discipline and supervisory control. Second, the multiple use of regulatory capital may overstate the capacity of a group to absorb losses – either across the various regulated entities within the group (double or multiple gearing) or through the use of debt issued at the holding company level to acquire equity stakes in subsidiaries (double leverage).
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I decided when I was asked to do this that what I really wanted to talk about. I was one of the fortunate few and enjoyed his presence. And I'm going to tell you. I'm sure there are people here about the Richard Feynman they knew. And it would probably be. Richard Feynman was a very complex man. He was a man of many, many parts. He was, of course, foremost, He was an actor. You saw him act. I also had the good fortune up in the balcony. They were fantastic. He was a philosopher. He was a drum player. He was a teacher par excellence. Richard Feynman was also a showman, an enormous showman. He was brash, irreverent. He was full of macho, He loved intellectual battle. He had a gargantuan ego. But the man had, somehow, a lot of room at the bottom. And what I mean by that I can't speak for anybody else, a lot of room for another big ego. Well, not as big as his, but fairly big. I always felt good with Dick Feynman. It was always fun to be with him. He always made me feel smart. How can somebody like that? Somehow he did. He made me feel smart. He made me feel we were both smart, and the two of us could solve. And in fact, we did sometimes. We never published a paper together, but we did have a lot of fun. He loved to win, win these little macho games. And he didn't only play them with me, He would almost always win. But when he didn't win, when he lost, he would laugh and seem as if he had won. I remember once he told me a story about a joke the students played on him. I think it was for his birthday -- they took him for lunch to a sandwich place in Pasadena. It may still exist; I don't know. Celebrity sandwiches was their thing. You could get a Marilyn Monroe sandwich. You could get a Humphrey Bogart sandwich. The students went there in advance, and arranged that they'd all order. One after another, they came in. Feynman loved this story. He told me this story. When he finished the story, I said to him, "Dick, I wonder what between a Feynman sandwich. And without skipping a beat at all, he said, "Well, they'd be about the same. The only difference is a Susskind "Ham" as in bad actor. Well, I happened to have been and I said, "Yeah, The truth of the matter is that a Feynman sandwich but absolutely no baloney. What Feynman hated worse was intellectual pretense -- phoniness, false sophistication, jargon. I remember sometime during the mid-'80s, Dick and I and Sidney Coleman up in San Francisco -- up in San Francisco for dinner. And the last time the rich guy invited us, he also invited a couple of philosophers. These guys were philosophers of mind. Their specialty was the philosophy. And they were full of all kinds of jargon. I'm trying to remember the words -- "monism," "dualism," I didn't know what those meant, neither. And what did we talk about? Well, what do you talk about? There's one obvious thing to talk about: Can a machine become a mind? Can you build a machine that thinks like a human being? We sat around and talked about this. But the trouble with the philosophers is that they were philosophizing when they should have been. It's a scientific question, after all. And this was a very, very around Dick Feynman. Feynman let them have it. It was brutal; it was funny. But it was really brutal. He really popped their balloon. But the amazing thing was -- he wasn't feeling too well, And Sidney and I were left there. And the amazing thing. They were so happy. They had met the great man; they had been instructed by the great man; they had an enormous amount of fun having their faces shoved in the mud. And it was something special. I realized there was something even when he did what he did. Dick -- he was my friend; Dick and I had a little bit of a rapport. I think it may have been a special. We liked each other; I also like the intellectual macho games. Sometimes I would win, but we both enjoyed them. And Dick became convinced at some point that he and I had. I don't think he was right. I think the only point is we both like to talk about ourselves. But he was convinced of this. And the man was incredibly curious. And he wanted to understand that there was this funny connection. And one day, we were walking. We were in France, in Les Houches. We were up in the mountains, 1976. And Feynman said to me, "Leonardo ..." The reason he called me "Leonardo" and he was practicing his French. And he said, "Leonardo, were you closer to your mother? I said, "Well, my real hero was my father. He was a working man, had a fifth-grade education.
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I decided when I was asked to do this that what I really wanted to talk about. I was one of the fortunate few and enjoyed his presence. And I'm going to tell you. I'm sure there are people here about the Richard Feynman they knew. And it would probably be. Richard Feynman was a very complex man. He was a man of many, many parts. He was, of course, foremost, He was an actor. You saw him act. I also had the good fortune up in the balcony. They were fantastic. He was a philosopher. He was a drum player. He was a teacher par excellence. Richard Feynman was also a showman, an enormous showman. He was brash, irreverent. He was full of macho, He loved intellectual battle. He had a gargantuan ego. But the man had, somehow, a lot of room at the bottom. And what I mean by that I can't speak for anybody else, a lot of room for another big ego. Well, not as big as his, but fairly big. I always felt good with Dick Feynman. It was always fun to be with him. He always made me feel smart. How can somebody like that? Somehow he did. He made me feel smart. He made me feel we were both smart, and the two of us could solve. And in fact, we did sometimes. We never published a paper together, but we did have a lot of fun. He loved to win, win these little macho games. And he didn't only play them with me, He would almost always win. But when he didn't win, when he lost, he would laugh and seem as if he had won. I remember once he told me a story about a joke the students played on him. I think it was for his birthday -- they took him for lunch to a sandwich place in Pasadena. It may still exist; I don't know. Celebrity sandwiches was their thing. You could get a Marilyn Monroe sandwich. You could get a Humphrey Bogart sandwich. The students went there in advance, and arranged that they'd all order. One after another, they came in. Feynman loved this story. He told me this story. When he finished the story, I said to him, "Dick, I wonder what between a Feynman sandwich. And without skipping a beat at all, he said, "Well, they'd be about the same. The only difference is a Susskind "Ham" as in bad actor. Well, I happened to have been and I said, "Yeah, The truth of the matter is that a Feynman sandwich but absolutely no baloney. What Feynman hated worse was intellectual pretense -- phoniness, false sophistication, jargon. I remember sometime during the mid-'eighty s, Dick and I and Sidney Coleman up in San Francisco -- up in San Francisco for dinner. And the last time the rich guy invited us, he also invited a couple of philosophers. These guys were philosophers of mind. Their specialty was the philosophy. And they were full of all kinds of jargon. I'm trying to remember the words -- "monism," "dualism," I didn't know what those meant, neither. And what did we talk about? Well, what do you talk about? There's one obvious thing to talk about: Can a machine become a mind? Can you build a machine that thinks like a human being? We sat around and talked about this. But the trouble with the philosophers is that they were philosophizing when they should have been. It's a scientific question, after all. And this was a very, very around Dick Feynman. Feynman let them have it. It was brutal; it was funny. But it was really brutal. He really popped their balloon. But the amazing thing was -- he wasn't feeling too well, And Sidney and I were left there. And the amazing thing. They were so happy. They had met the great man; they had been instructed by the great man; they had an enormous amount of fun having their faces shoved in the mud. And it was something special. I realized there was something even when he did what he did. Dick -- he was my friend; Dick and I had a little bit of a rapport. I think it may have been a special. We liked each other; I also like the intellectual macho games. Sometimes I would win, but we both enjoyed them. And Dick became convinced at some point that he and I had. I don't think he was right. I think the only point is we both like to talk about ourselves. But he was convinced of this. And the man was incredibly curious. And he wanted to understand that there was this funny connection. And one day, we were walking. We were in France, in Les Houches. We were up in the mountains, one thousand nine hundred seventy six. And Feynman said to me, "Leonardo ..." The reason he called me "Leonardo" and he was practicing his French. And he said, "Leonardo, were you closer to your mother? I said, "Well, my real hero was my father. He was a working man, had a fifth-grade education.
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| 833 |
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Based on a multiple indicator approach, this Special Feature takes a first step towards statistically identifying banking institutions that meet certain "largeness" characteristics that go beyond balance sheet size. Information extracted from credit default swap (CDS) index tranches can provide an important contribution to a forward-looking assessment of banking system risk. The market prices of CDS index tranches provide the basis for constructing an indicator of the level of systematic risk in the credit market. In particular, this indicator describes traders’ views on the future relative development of systematic and idiosyncratic portfolio credit risk. Thus, it shows whether traders are more concerned about economy-wide credit risk or about firm-specific credit risk such as the default of a particular firm. This Special Feature constructs an estimate of the implied correlation for the euro credit market and describes its use in financial stability analysis. The three main results of this analysis are as follows. First, after January 2006, there was evidence that the focus of credit traders had moved from firm specific credit risk towards systematic credit risk. This finding can be linked to a number of fundamental determinants of credit market valuation, all of which point in the same direction. Second, the implied correlation provides detailed information about how the credit markets functioned during the May 2005 market turbulence. Third, most of the variation in the implied correlation is not linked to other financial market indicators. Credit growth has accelerated in recent years in some central and (south-) eastern European countries (CEECs). While low starting levels of financial intermediation help explain the speed of credit growth, its fast pace could raise concerns from a financial and macroeconomic stability perspective. This Special Feature suggests a methodology for analysing these episodes that explicitly accounts for both macroeconomic developments and the catching up process associated with the transition from planned to market economies that countries in the region have been undergoing. However, even if both factors are taken into account evidence is still found in some countries of higher credit growth than the empirical model would suggest. In these cases the dynamics of credit growth are nevertheless not markedly different for foreign or domestic currency lending, or for lending to households and corporations. Given the limited available data, however, these results must be interpreted with caution, and further research is called for to address issues such as the mechanisms through which the exchange rate regime, the presence of foreign banks and the range of lending products on offer may impact credit developments in the region. If very large changes in the stock prices of individual insurance undertakings tend to occur simultaneously, it can be said that extreme-value dependence is present. If such dependence is found to be present, it can indicate that these firms are exposed to common sources of risk. With a focus on gaining insight into systemic risk within the insurance sector, this Special Feature examines the incidence of extreme-value dependence across different types of insurance undertakings and it goes on to examine the main drivers of such co-movement, to the extent that it is present. A key finding is that extreme-value dependence is evident among larger composite insurers. In addition, two important drivers of extreme-value dependence between insurance companies are found: exposure to extreme financial market events, and to non-life underwriting. Since the introduction of the euro, the progress made in the integration of financial markets and market infrastructures in the EU, the growing number of internationally active institutions and the diversification of financial activities have increased the liquidity and efficiency of the relevant markets. At the same time, however, such developments have also increased the likelihood that systemic disturbances could affect more than one Member State, and possibly increase the scope for cross-border contagion. In this context, the specific arrangements for handling crises at the EU level between the authorities responsible for safeguarding financial stability have been considerably enhanced since the introduction of the euro. The enhancements include legislative initiatives in the framework of the Financial Services Action Plan (FSAP), the implementation of the Lamfalussy framework for regulation and supervision in all financial sectors, the adoption of agreements on voluntary cooperation between responsible authorities, and the development of practical arrangements, such as the organisation of financial crisis simulation exercises. This Special Feature provides a structured overview of the progress made in the specific arrangements for financial crisis management between central banks, banking supervisors and finance ministries. Arrangements involving other authorities, such as other sectoral financial supervisors or deposit-insurance schemes, are not dealt with in this Special Feature. In the three years prior to the end of 2005, net inflows into the hedge fund sector were particularly strong, averaging USD 20 billion per quarter. However, net outflows in the last quarter of 2005 warned many hedge fund managers of the possibility of higher withdrawals in the future. This also raised questions about the factors that drive money flows into the hedge fund industry.
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Based on a multiple indicator approach, this Special Feature takes a first step towards statistically identifying banking institutions that meet certain "largeness" characteristics that go beyond balance sheet size. Information extracted from credit default swap (CDS) index tranches can provide an important contribution to a forward-looking assessment of banking system risk. The market prices of CDS index tranches provide the basis for constructing an indicator of the level of systematic risk in the credit market. In particular, this indicator describes traders’ views on the future relative development of systematic and idiosyncratic portfolio credit risk. Thus, it shows whether traders are more concerned about economy-wide credit risk or about firm-specific credit risk such as the default of a particular firm. This Special Feature constructs an estimate of the implied correlation for the euro credit market and describes its use in financial stability analysis. The three main results of this analysis are as follows. First, after January two thousand six, there was evidence that the focus of credit traders had moved from firm specific credit risk towards systematic credit risk. This finding can be linked to a number of fundamental determinants of credit market valuation, all of which point in the same direction. Second, the implied correlation provides detailed information about how the credit markets functioned during the May two thousand five market turbulence. Third, most of the variation in the implied correlation is not linked to other financial market indicators. Credit growth has accelerated in recent years in some central and (south-) eastern European countries (CEECs). While low starting levels of financial intermediation help explain the speed of credit growth, its fast pace could raise concerns from a financial and macroeconomic stability perspective. This Special Feature suggests a methodology for analysing these episodes that explicitly accounts for both macroeconomic developments and the catching up process associated with the transition from planned to market economies that countries in the region have been undergoing. However, even if both factors are taken into account evidence is still found in some countries of higher credit growth than the empirical model would suggest. In these cases the dynamics of credit growth are nevertheless not markedly different for foreign or domestic currency lending, or for lending to households and corporations. Given the limited available data, however, these results must be interpreted with caution, and further research is called for to address issues such as the mechanisms through which the exchange rate regime, the presence of foreign banks and the range of lending products on offer may impact credit developments in the region. If very large changes in the stock prices of individual insurance undertakings tend to occur simultaneously, it can be said that extreme-value dependence is present. If such dependence is found to be present, it can indicate that these firms are exposed to common sources of risk. With a focus on gaining insight into systemic risk within the insurance sector, this Special Feature examines the incidence of extreme-value dependence across different types of insurance undertakings and it goes on to examine the main drivers of such co-movement, to the extent that it is present. A key finding is that extreme-value dependence is evident among larger composite insurers. In addition, two important drivers of extreme-value dependence between insurance companies are found: exposure to extreme financial market events, and to non-life underwriting. Since the introduction of the euro, the progress made in the integration of financial markets and market infrastructures in the EU, the growing number of internationally active institutions and the diversification of financial activities have increased the liquidity and efficiency of the relevant markets. At the same time, however, such developments have also increased the likelihood that systemic disturbances could affect more than one Member State, and possibly increase the scope for cross-border contagion. In this context, the specific arrangements for handling crises at the EU level between the authorities responsible for safeguarding financial stability have been considerably enhanced since the introduction of the euro. The enhancements include legislative initiatives in the framework of the Financial Services Action Plan (FSAP), the implementation of the Lamfalussy framework for regulation and supervision in all financial sectors, the adoption of agreements on voluntary cooperation between responsible authorities, and the development of practical arrangements, such as the organisation of financial crisis simulation exercises. This Special Feature provides a structured overview of the progress made in the specific arrangements for financial crisis management between central banks, banking supervisors and finance ministries. Arrangements involving other authorities, such as other sectoral financial supervisors or deposit-insurance schemes, are not dealt with in this Special Feature. In the three years prior to the end of two thousand five, net inflows into the hedge fund sector were particularly strong, averaging USD twenty billion per quarter. However, net outflows in the last quarter of two thousand five warned many hedge fund managers of the possibility of higher withdrawals in the future.
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Yet that was a time of historically low inflation. As such, there was no need to tighten monetary policy at that time. On the other hand, household financial conditions have worsened, with the delinquency rate on credit card debt now at the highest level since just after the global financial crisis in 2011. The delinquency rate on automotive loans has also increased considerably. Plus, the end of the moratorium on student debt has led to a further increase in financial stress for student debtors. The challenges faced by the household sector provide an argument in favor of monetary easing. As indicated above, it is nearly a certainty that the Fed will cut the benchmark interest rate later this month, likely starting a gradual process of easing monetary policy. This could come in conjunction with a further acceleration in inflation. That would be an unusual combination of events. This means that the absorption of the tariffs is mostly taking place on the US side of the Pacific Ocean. CICC suggests that US importers are largely absorbing the cost and not yet fully passing on the cost to their US customers. CICC commented that “US importers, sandwiched in the middle of supply chains, find it difficult to fully pass costs to the end market or shift the burden entirely to exporters, so they cope by compressing profit margins.” My view is that, ultimately, these importers will likely push the cost onto their customers in the United States, thereby avoiding a sustained compression of profits. Meanwhile, it has been reported that exporter absorption of tariff costs has been much greater in Southeast Asia and Europe, than in China. CICC says this reflects the highly competitive nature of Chinese exports. Still, Chinese exports to the United States are down sharply as many importers are frustrated with much higher prices. It is reported that Chinese exporters are struggling to sell to the United States, worried that weak sales will result in idle factories. Now, things are changing. And it largely reflects the impact of a shift in US trade policy toward India. Until recently, the United States worked hard to deepen ties with India, largely as an offset to the rising power of China. Yet relations have soured following the imposition of a 50% tariff on imports from India. The stated reason for the 50% tariff was Indian purchases of Russian oil. India has indicated it will not back down. Meanwhile, China has taken advantage of the situation by trying to enhance relations with India as well as Russia. Last week, the leaders of all three countries were together in China. China’s leader said that the three countries should be partners.
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Yet that was a time of historically low inflation. As such, there was no need to tighten monetary policy at that time. On the other hand, household financial conditions have worsened, with the delinquency rate on credit card debt now at the highest level since just after the global financial crisis in two thousand eleven. The delinquency rate on automotive loans has also increased considerably. Plus, the end of the moratorium on student debt has led to a further increase in financial stress for student debtors. The challenges faced by the household sector provide an argument in favor of monetary easing. As indicated above, it is nearly a certainty that the Fed will cut the benchmark interest rate later this month, likely starting a gradual process of easing monetary policy. This could come in conjunction with a further acceleration in inflation. That would be an unusual combination of events. This means that the absorption of the tariffs is mostly taking place on the US side of the Pacific Ocean. CICC suggests that US importers are largely absorbing the cost and not yet fully passing on the cost to their US customers. CICC commented that “US importers, sandwiched in the middle of supply chains, find it difficult to fully pass costs to the end market or shift the burden entirely to exporters, so they cope by compressing profit margins.” My view is that, ultimately, these importers will likely push the cost onto their customers in the United States, thereby avoiding a sustained compression of profits. Meanwhile, it has been reported that exporter absorption of tariff costs has been much greater in Southeast Asia and Europe, than in China. CICC says this reflects the highly competitive nature of Chinese exports. Still, Chinese exports to the United States are down sharply as many importers are frustrated with much higher prices. It is reported that Chinese exporters are struggling to sell to the United States, worried that weak sales will result in idle factories. Now, things are changing. And it largely reflects the impact of a shift in US trade policy toward India. Until recently, the United States worked hard to deepen ties with India, largely as an offset to the rising power of China. Yet relations have soured following the imposition of a fifty percent tariff on imports from India. The stated reason for the fifty percent tariff was Indian purchases of Russian oil. India has indicated it will not back down. Meanwhile, China has taken advantage of the situation by trying to enhance relations with India as well as Russia. Last week, the leaders of all three countries were together in China. China’s leader said that the three countries should be partners.
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long_en_111
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| 259 |
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In particular, mortgage debt appeared to be held mostly by high-income households, which tend to have good prospects for servicing debt. Nevertheless, considering the substantial increase in house prices and the significant accumulation of mortgage debt in some Member States after theperiod covered by the data examined in this Special Feature, continued monitoring of household sector indebtedness is called for. Banks are key components of the euro area financial system. Understanding the interplay between banks and their operating environment assists in identifying sources of risk and vulnerability within the system. This Special Feature attempts to examine the empirical importance of bank-specific, market structure and macro-financial factors on euro area banks’ financial performance over the last decade or so. The EU Regulation requiring all listed companies, including banks, to prepare consolidated financial statements in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) has been a positive development that will increase the transparency and comparability of financial statements in the EU. However, the first-time application of these new rules will have a significant impact on financial statements which should be taken into account when analysing the accounting figures. The aim of this Special Feature is to provide a brief overview of the main ways in which IFRS will affect banks’ primary financial statements. Central counterparty clearing houses (CCPs) play an important role in efficiently reallocating counterparty credit risks and liquidity risks in financial markets. However, as systemically important players, they must manage their risks in an adequate way in order to avoid creating new risks for financial stability.
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In particular, mortgage debt appeared to be held mostly by high-income households, which tend to have good prospects for servicing debt. Nevertheless, considering the substantial increase in house prices and the significant accumulation of mortgage debt in some Member States after theperiod covered by the data examined in this Special Feature, continued monitoring of household sector indebtedness is called for. Banks are key components of the euro area financial system. Understanding the interplay between banks and their operating environment assists in identifying sources of risk and vulnerability within the system. This Special Feature attempts to examine the empirical importance of bank-specific, market structure and macro-financial factors on euro area banks’ financial performance over the last decade or so. The EU Regulation requiring all listed companies, including banks, to prepare consolidated financial statements in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) has been a positive development that will increase the transparency and comparability of financial statements in the EU. However, the first-time application of these new rules will have a significant impact on financial statements which should be taken into account when analysing the accounting figures. The aim of this Special Feature is to provide a brief overview of the main ways in which IFRS will affect banks’ primary financial statements. Central counterparty clearing houses (CCPs) play an important role in efficiently reallocating counterparty credit risks and liquidity risks in financial markets. However, as systemically important players, they must manage their risks in an adequate way in order to avoid creating new risks for financial stability.
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The advanced functionality we seek is illustrated by use during an actual crisis. An emergency coordinator might employ a simulation of the crisis to analyze different potential responses and predict their likely outcomes. Intelligent simulation technology can assist people in such stressful, time-pressured situations to look further ahead in determining the consequences of proposed actions. A key challenge in achieving the potential of simulated worlds is constructing realistic humanlike agents. These agents must be able to coordinate perception, planning, and action, learn, understand and interact with their world, deal with other agents, and use natural language. Even generating a believable animation of a humanlike agent is a complex task: real-time generation of realistic facial expressions is difficult both conceptually and computationally, as is producing coordinated movement of the hundreds of joints in a human body used in such simple actions as getting into a car. Providing all or even a significant portion of this functionality is a challenging mission. However, useful agents can be constructed with only some of these capabilities, even in limited form. For example, early results using the semi-automated OPFOR capability in SIMNET demonstrate the practical utility of even very simple simulated agents. The accumulation of information that is available electronically presents a major dilemma. The good news is that all of the world’s electronic libraries are now at your disposal; the bad news is that you’re on your own, and there’s no one at the information desk. For the NII to be useful, people will have to be able to find information relevant to their problems and tasks in a reasonable amount of time and with reasonable effort. An information-resource specialist system (IRSS) could meet a wide range of needs at home, at work, and at school. Such systems would be tailored to individual users rather than a single project and its needs; consequently, an IRSS would be able to assist its user with a broad range of information needs. The clearest uses of IRSSs are as aids to finding information related to a specific problem. For example, a teacher designing a new course might use his or her IRSS to find relevant background materials, slides to use in his or her presentation, or even information about similar courses taught elsewhere. A rural doctor whose patient presents a rare condition might use his or her IRSS to help assess different treatments or identify new ones or to locate and consult with an appropriate specialist. A neurosurgeon might use his or her IRSS to search a national database for cranial tomography images that resemble the image for a gunshot victim to locate techniques that were used in similar situations and the doctors who used them. An IRSS could help track information over long periods of time. For example, a market analyst for a major department store chain might use his or her IRSS to help identify emerging industry trends. The IRSS would automatically monitor national trade databases and detect and alert its user to changing market patterns. To realize their enormous potential, IRSSs must be powerful, flexible, and easy to use. Users must be able to communicate in whatever way is most natural to them: typing or speaking, for example, in their native language rather than some artificially designed language. The IRSS must allow the use of diagrams and gestures, combining media and modalities in whatever mix is best for getting the message across. The commands that users issue will be general and often vague; nevertheless, the IRSS must accurately determine how to perform such commands. The information that a user needs will often not be stored at any one site; thus, the IRSS will need to be able to access multiple sites and recognize common information. To actively and continuously seek out useful information, an IRSS will need to learn which topics are of long- and short-term interest to each user. Finally, several specialist systems may need to coordinate to locate the relevant information. The world is becoming increasingly complex and information-rich. Not long ago, automobile engines had carburetors with manual adjustments; now they have microprocessor-controlled components and local area networks operating inside the engine compartment. The richness and complexity of these systems are both appealing and daunting. Automobiles can be more energy efficient and less polluting if they are carefully designed and controlled, but complex designs are more difficult to create and harder to debug, modify, and operate. The problems of complexity are nowhere more evident than in the problem of design, modification, and maintenance of the hardware and software that make up complex computer systems. Intelligent project coach systems can address such needs. They could function as coworkers, assisting and collaborating with design or operations teams for complex systems. They could also supply institutional memory. The IPC could remember and recall the rationale of previous decisions and, in times of crisis, explain the methods and reasoning previously used to handle that situation. IPCs would typically incorporate intelligent simulation and information resources systems as components. Extensive and ambitious as this research agenda is, like other strategically defined research, it needs the complement of research that is not strategically defined. Both the problems and the payoff of such research are difficult to predict. But a scientific understanding of information processes such as learning, reasoning, and perceiving could change our understanding of ourselves and the world about us, with consequences that are as difficult to foresee as those of other fundamental breakthroughs in science. Each research thrust area contains a substantial base of existing techniques, tools, and well-defined problems from which to draw. In the sections that follow, we briefly characterize the problem, the research base, and the key scientific challenges for the future.
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The advanced functionality we seek is illustrated by use during an actual crisis. An emergency coordinator might employ a simulation of the crisis to analyze different potential responses and predict their likely outcomes. Intelligent simulation technology can assist people in such stressful, time-pressured situations to look further ahead in determining the consequences of proposed actions. A key challenge in achieving the potential of simulated worlds is constructing realistic humanlike agents. These agents must be able to coordinate perception, planning, and action, learn, understand and interact with their world, deal with other agents, and use natural language. Even generating a believable animation of a humanlike agent is a complex task: real-time generation of realistic facial expressions is difficult both conceptually and computationally, as is producing coordinated movement of the hundreds of joints in a human body used in such simple actions as getting into a car. Providing all or even a significant portion of this functionality is a challenging mission. However, useful agents can be constructed with only some of these capabilities, even in limited form. For example, early results using the semi-automated OPFOR capability in SIMNET demonstrate the practical utility of even very simple simulated agents. The accumulation of information that is available electronically presents a major dilemma. The good news is that all of the world’s electronic libraries are now at your disposal; the bad news is that you’re on your own, and there’s no one at the information desk. For the NII to be useful, people will have to be able to find information relevant to their problems and tasks in a reasonable amount of time and with reasonable effort. An information-resource specialist system (IRSS) could meet a wide range of needs at home, at work, and at school. Such systems would be tailored to individual users rather than a single project and its needs; consequently, an IRSS would be able to assist its user with a broad range of information needs. The clearest uses of IRSSs are as aids to finding information related to a specific problem. For example, a teacher designing a new course might use his or her IRSS to find relevant background materials, slides to use in his or her presentation, or even information about similar courses taught elsewhere. A rural doctor whose patient presents a rare condition might use his or her IRSS to help assess different treatments or identify new ones or to locate and consult with an appropriate specialist. A neurosurgeon might use his or her IRSS to search a national database for cranial tomography images that resemble the image for a gunshot victim to locate techniques that were used in similar situations and the doctors who used them. An IRSS could help track information over long periods of time. For example, a market analyst for a major department store chain might use his or her IRSS to help identify emerging industry trends. The IRSS would automatically monitor national trade databases and detect and alert its user to changing market patterns. To realize their enormous potential, IRSSs must be powerful, flexible, and easy to use. Users must be able to communicate in whatever way is most natural to them: typing or speaking, for example, in their native language rather than some artificially designed language. The IRSS must allow the use of diagrams and gestures, combining media and modalities in whatever mix is best for getting the message across. The commands that users issue will be general and often vague; nevertheless, the IRSS must accurately determine how to perform such commands. The information that a user needs will often not be stored at any one site; thus, the IRSS will need to be able to access multiple sites and recognize common information. To actively and continuously seek out useful information, an IRSS will need to learn which topics are of long- and short-term interest to each user. Finally, several specialist systems may need to coordinate to locate the relevant information. The world is becoming increasingly complex and information-rich. Not long ago, automobile engines had carburetors with manual adjustments; now they have microprocessor-controlled components and local area networks operating inside the engine compartment. The richness and complexity of these systems are both appealing and daunting. Automobiles can be more energy efficient and less polluting if they are carefully designed and controlled, but complex designs are more difficult to create and harder to debug, modify, and operate. The problems of complexity are nowhere more evident than in the problem of design, modification, and maintenance of the hardware and software that make up complex computer systems. Intelligent project coach systems can address such needs. They could function as coworkers, assisting and collaborating with design or operations teams for complex systems. They could also supply institutional memory. The IPC could remember and recall the rationale of previous decisions and, in times of crisis, explain the methods and reasoning previously used to handle that situation. IPCs would typically incorporate intelligent simulation and information resources systems as components. Extensive and ambitious as this research agenda is, like other strategically defined research, it needs the complement of research that is not strategically defined. Both the problems and the payoff of such research are difficult to predict. But a scientific understanding of information processes such as learning, reasoning, and perceiving could change our understanding of ourselves and the world about us, with consequences that are as difficult to foresee as those of other fundamental breakthroughs in science. Each research thrust area contains a substantial base of existing techniques, tools, and well-defined problems from which to draw. In the sections that follow, we briefly characterize the problem, the research base, and the key scientific challenges for the future.
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Furthermore, we support reasoning-based generation in Mini-Gemini and empower current VLMs with any-to-any workflow. Extensive experiments on several zero-shot benchmarks prove the superiority of the proposed method, which surpasses previous leading approaches and even private models. We hope the Mini-Gemini can serve as a strong benchmark for image understanding and VLM-guided generation. Although Mini-Gemini achieves good results, it still has great potential to be further explored. For visual comprehension, the counting ability and complex visual reasoning ability are still far from satisfactory. This could be attributed to the lack of corresponding training data especially in the pretraining stage. Meanwhile, for reasoning-based generation, we use text to bridge the VLM and diffusion model in this work because we do not find apparent gain with embedding-based approaches. We will try to find a more advanced manner for visual understanding, reasoning, and generation.
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Furthermore, we support reasoning-based generation in Mini-Gemini and empower current VLMs with any-to-any workflow. Extensive experiments on several zero-shot benchmarks prove the superiority of the proposed method, which surpasses previous leading approaches and even private models. We hope the Mini-Gemini can serve as a strong benchmark for image understanding and VLM-guided generation. Although Mini-Gemini achieves good results, it still has great potential to be further explored. For visual comprehension, the counting ability and complex visual reasoning ability are still far from satisfactory. This could be attributed to the lack of corresponding training data especially in the pretraining stage. Meanwhile, for reasoning-based generation, we use text to bridge the VLM and diffusion model in this work because we do not find apparent gain with embedding-based approaches. We will try to find a more advanced manner for visual understanding, reasoning, and generation.
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However, this time the renewed interest is motivated by their impressive growth and increasing proliferation as a mainstream alternative investment vehicle. Securities settlement systems form an essential part of the financial market infrastructure. If they are badly designed, they may contribute to severe disruption of the functioning of financial markets. Awareness of the importance of securities settlement systems is especially high in Europe, as the European securities settlement infrastructure has been changing rapidly in many ways. This Special Feature describes the most important reasons why robust securities settlement systems are important for safeguarding financial stability, and states how they should be designed to ensure that they do not contribute to instability in financial markets. On 26 June 2004, the central bank governors and the heads of banking supervisory authorities of the G10 countries endorsed the Revised Framework for Capital Measurement and Capital Standards, commonly known as Basel II or the New Accord. Basel II is the culmination of a highly challenging project that was carried out by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and its member agencies over a period lasting more than five years. Following the publication of the first round of proposals in June 1999, two additional consultative packages were circulated in 2001 and 2003 for comments, involving industry representatives, supervisory agencies, central banks and other observers in all member countries. For many countries the next step will be the implementation of the Revised Framework by the end of 2006, according to the timetable developed by the BCBS. The deadline for the implementation of the most advanced approaches to risk measurement foreseen by the new framework is the end of 2007. This Special Feature provides an overview of the comprehensive approach of the New Accord, placing emphasis on the innovative elements of Basel II and relevant aspects from a financial stability perspective. It concludes with an assessment of the key remaining challenges for a successful implementation of the New Accord. The household sector is one of the key sectors for financial stability analysis in EU and in the euro area for two main reasons. Firstly, the household sector accounts for a significant proportion of non-bank lending in terms of the stock of credit outstanding. At the end of June 2004, approximately 30% of loans granted to euro area residents were to households. By contrast, about 25% were granted to non-financial corporations. This share has not changed very significantly since the start of EMU. Secondly, the growth rate of lending to this sector has also been the fastest among the non-financial sectors in recent years. The growth rate of loans extended to households in some EU countries has been very strong over recent years. There has been little sign yet of a reversion to more conventional growth patterns in 2004, and this category has been the fastest growing type of lending in the euro area for the past two years. This Special Feature concentrates on lending trends to households over the period 2002-2003, though longer periods are used where relevant. It assesses the most important exposures for euro area and EU banks to the household sector as far as the data allows.
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However, this time the renewed interest is motivated by their impressive growth and increasing proliferation as a mainstream alternative investment vehicle. Securities settlement systems form an essential part of the financial market infrastructure. If they are badly designed, they may contribute to severe disruption of the functioning of financial markets. Awareness of the importance of securities settlement systems is especially high in Europe, as the European securities settlement infrastructure has been changing rapidly in many ways. This Special Feature describes the most important reasons why robust securities settlement systems are important for safeguarding financial stability, and states how they should be designed to ensure that they do not contribute to instability in financial markets. On twenty six June two thousand four, the central bank governors and the heads of banking supervisory authorities of the G ten countries endorsed the Revised Framework for Capital Measurement and Capital Standards, commonly known as Basel two or the New Accord. Basel two is the culmination of a highly challenging project that was carried out by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and its member agencies over a period lasting more than five years. Following the publication of the first round of proposals in June nineteen ninety-nine, two additional consultative packages were circulated in two thousand one and two thousand three for comments, involving industry representatives, supervisory agencies, central banks and other observers in all member countries. For many countries the next step will be the implementation of the Revised Framework by the end of two thousand six, according to the timetable developed by the BCBS. The deadline for the implementation of the most advanced approaches to risk measurement foreseen by the new framework is the end of two thousand seven. This Special Feature provides an overview of the comprehensive approach of the New Accord, placing emphasis on the innovative elements of Basel II and relevant aspects from a financial stability perspective. It concludes with an assessment of the key remaining challenges for a successful implementation of the New Accord. The household sector is one of the key sectors for financial stability analysis in EU and in the euro area for two main reasons. Firstly, the household sector accounts for a significant proportion of non-bank lending in terms of the stock of credit outstanding. At the end of June two thousand four, approximately thirty percent of loans granted to euro area residents were to households. By contrast, about twenty-five percent were granted to non-financial corporations. This share has not changed very significantly since the start of EMU. Secondly, the growth rate of lending to this sector has also been the fastest among the non-financial sectors in recent years. The growth rate of loans extended to households in some EU countries has been very strong over recent years. There has been little sign yet of a reversion to more conventional growth patterns in two thousand four, and this category has been the fastest growing type of lending in the euro area for the past two years. This Special Feature concentrates on lending trends to households over the period two thousand two-two thousand three, though longer periods are used where relevant. It assesses the most important exposures for euro area and EU banks to the household sector as far as the data allows.
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Girls get aborted before they're even born when there are scarce resources. This girl here, for instance, is in a feeding center in Ethiopia. The entire center was filled with girls like her. What's remarkable is that her brothers, in the same family, were totally fine. In India, in the first year of life, from zero to one, boy and girl babies basically survive at the same rate because they depend upon the breast, and the breast shows no son preference. From one to five, girls die at a 50 percent higher mortality rate than boys, in all of India. The second tenet of "Half the Sky" is that, let's put aside the morality of all the right and wrong of it all, and just on a purely practical level, we think that one of the best ways to fight poverty and to fight terrorism is to educate girls and to bring women into the formal labor force. Poverty, for instance. There are three reasons why this is the case. For one, overpopulation is one of the persistent causes of poverty. And you know, when you educate a boy, his family tends to have fewer kids, but only slightly. When you educate a girl, she tends to have significantly fewer kids. The second reason is it has to do with spending. It's kind of like the dirty, little secret of poverty, which is that, not only do poor people take in very little income, but also, the income that they take in, they don't spend it very wisely, and unfortunately, most of that spending is done by men. So research has shown, if you look at people who live under two dollars a day -- one metric of poverty -- two percent of that take-home pay goes to this basket here, in education. 20 percent goes to a basket that is a combination of alcohol, tobacco, sugary drinks -- and prostitution and festivals. If you just take four percentage points and put it into this basket, you would have a transformative effect. The last reason has to do with women being part of the solution, not the problem. You need to use scarce resources. It's a waste of resources if you don't use someone like Dai Manju. Bill Gates put it very well when he was traveling through Saudi Arabia. He was speaking to an audience much like yourselves. However, two-thirds of the way there was a barrier. On this side was men, and then the barrier, and this side was women. And someone from this side of the room got up and said, "Mr. Gates, we have here as our goal in Saudi Arabia to be one of the top 10 countries when it comes to technology. Do you think we'll make it?" So Bill Gates, as he was staring out at the audience, he said, "If you're not fully utilizing half the resources in your country, there is no way you will get anywhere near the top 10." So here is Bill of Arabia. So what would some of the specific challenges look like? I would say, on the top of the agenda is sex trafficking. And I'll just say two things about this. The slavery at the peak of the slave trade in the 1780s: there were about 80,000 slaves transported from Africa to the New World. Now, modern slavery: according to State Department rough statistics, there are about 800,000 -- 10 times the number -- that are trafficked across international borders. And that does not even include those that are trafficked within country borders, which is a substantial portion. And if you look at another factor, another contrast, a slave back then is worth about $40,000 in today's money. Today, you can buy a girl trafficked for a few hundred dollars, which means she's actually more disposable. But you know, there is progress being made in places like Cambodia and Thailand. We don't have to expect a world where girls are bought and sold or killed. The second item on the agenda is maternal mortality. You know, childbirth in this part of the world is a wonderful event.
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Girls get aborted before they're even born when there are scarce resources. This girl here, for instance, is in a feeding center in Ethiopia. The entire center was filled with girls like her. What's remarkable is that her brothers, in the same family, were totally fine. In India, in the first year of life, from zero to one, boy and girl babies basically survive at the same rate because they depend upon the breast, and the breast shows no son preference. From one to five, girls die at a fifty percent higher mortality rate than boys, in all of India. The second tenet of "Half the Sky" is that, let's put aside the morality of all the right and wrong of it all, and just on a purely practical level, we think that one of the best ways to fight poverty and to fight terrorism is to educate girls and to bring women into the formal labor force. Poverty, for instance. There are three reasons why this is the case. For one, overpopulation is one of the persistent causes of poverty. And you know, when you educate a boy, his family tends to have fewer kids, but only slightly. When you educate a girl, she tends to have significantly fewer kids. The second reason is it has to do with spending. It's kind of like the dirty, little secret of poverty, which is that, not only do poor people take in very little income, but also, the income that they take in, they don't spend it very wisely, and unfortunately, most of that spending is done by men. So research has shown, if you look at people who live under two dollars a day -- one metric of poverty -- two percent of that take-home pay goes to this basket here, in education. Twenty percent goes to a basket that is a combination of alcohol, tobacco, sugary drinks -- and prostitution and festivals. If you just take four percentage points and put it into this basket, you would have a transformative effect. The last reason has to do with women being part of the solution, not the problem. You need to use scarce resources. It's a waste of resources if you don't use someone like Dai Manju. Bill Gates put it very well when he was traveling through Saudi Arabia. He was speaking to an audience much like yourselves. However, two thirds of the way there was a barrier. On this side was men, and then the barrier, and this side was women. And someone from this side of the room got up and said, "Mr. Gates, we have here as our goal in Saudi Arabia to be one of the top ten countries when it comes to technology. Do you think we'll make it?" So Bill Gates, as he was staring out at the audience, he said, "If you're not fully utilizing half the resources in your country, there is no way you will get anywhere near the top ten." So here is Bill of Arabia. So what would some of the specific challenges look like? I would say, on the top of the agenda is sex trafficking. And I'll just say two things about this. The slavery at the peak of the slave trade in the one thousand seven hundred eighty s: there were about eighty thousand slaves transported from Africa to the New World. Now, modern slavery: according to State Department rough statistics, there are about eight hundred thousand -- ten times the number -- that are trafficked across international borders. And that does not even include those that are trafficked within country borders, which is a substantial portion. And if you look at another factor, another contrast, a slave back then is worth about forty thousand dollars in today's money. Today, you can buy a girl trafficked for a few hundred dollars, which means she's actually more disposable. But you know, there is progress being made in places like Cambodia and Thailand. We don't have to expect a world where girls are bought and sold or killed. The second item on the agenda is maternal mortality. You know, childbirth in this part of the world is a wonderful event.
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There are companies of all sizes in this group, but those at the smaller end of our sample (with revenues below US$100 million) are represented more heavily. When it comes to venturing beyond sector boundaries, agility matters. Among the sectors CEOs say they are moving into are business services (with new competitors coming from technology, telecommunications and media), health services (with new competitors coming from insurance, tech and telecom), and consumer markets (with new competitors coming from pharmaceuticals, banking and media). These findings ring true. Consider, for example, moves by telecom companies to generate additional revenue by offering business customers a range of services beyond connectivity, or moves by health insurers into healthcare provision, or moves by banks to offer consumers additional fee-based services. We expect industry reconfiguration to accelerate in the decade to come. For CEOs, the challenge is to envision the ecosystem in which their company will operate in the future. This means thinking through the impacts of megatrends (notably, but not only, climate change and AI), how customer needs will change, how value pools will shift and what roles distinct types of companies will play. Alliances and partnerships are essential sources of learning (as well as revenue) on the journey towards new domains of growth. New expertise within the executive team may also be needed, although hiring one or two new functional leaders is never the full solution. Navigating industry reconfiguration is a job for the top team as a whole, with strong support from the board. Leading a company during a period of great change requires decision-making that is well informed, disciplined and unbiased. Yet many CEOs tell us that their company’s strategic decision-making processes are inconsistent at best. For example, proven practices for countering confirmation bias include making decision criteria transparent in advance, deliberately canvassing alternative points of view and intentionally seeking out information that contradicts the investment hypothesis. Only about half of companies regularly employ the full suite of these techniques for strategic decisions. Similarly, almost six in ten CEOs told us that they usually judge strategic decisions by their outcomes, not by the quality of the process. The only thing leaders can fully control is the quality of the decision-making process. Our survey results suggest that CEOs are leaving money on the table by not following the best practices of decision-making: companies with higher-quality processes for making strategic decisions report higher profit margins. Decisions sometimes need to be made quickly, before every box has been ticked. But there is compelling evidence that stronger decision-making processes typically result in better decisions—especially under conditions of uncertainty, when intuition and experience are unreliable guides. In the current environment, with very high levels of uncertainty across multiple dimensions, decision quality is paramount. Thorough, fact-based decision-making also comes into its own when emotions run high. On climate change, for example, CEOs are under scrutiny from customers, employees, investors and even family members. The same goes for how CEOs handle decisions related to AI, and questions about the future of legacy businesses in the face of industry reconfiguration. In these circumstances, robust decision-making processes can break deadlocks and support a bias to action. Our survey data confirms this: CEOs who report stronger decision processes also report more reinvention actions. Dynamic resource reallocation is a prerequisite for reinvention. For example, it is impossible to rapidly build a large new business without actively reallocating resources from lower-priority projects. Yet a large majority of companies lack agility when it comes to moving financial investments and people between projects and business units. About half of CEOs tell us that they reallocate 10% or less of financial and human resources from year to year. More than two-thirds say they reallocate less than 20%, a finding similar to that of last year’s survey. Active reallocation of people, in particular, is associated with higher profitability. The difference in profit margin between low human resource reallocation (less than 10%) and high reallocation (30–40%) is more than 2 percentage points. There is also a strong link between higher levels of resource reallocation (both financial and human resources) and the amount of revenue coming from distinct new businesses—underlining that reinvention and dynamic resource reallocation go hand in hand. Why don’t companies reallocate resources more actively from year to year when the evidence in favour of doing so is so consistent? Cognitive biases are at work. These include anchoring (an overreliance on arbitrary benchmarks, such as last year’s budget numbers) and naive diversification (the tendency to allocate resources equally across available options instead of weighting investments strategically). Organisational psychologist Robert Sutton reminded us that poorly designed incentives are also a factor: ‘In so many organisations, when a manager has more people reporting to him or her, they get paid more. So, literally, we have incentives for people building larger and larger fiefdoms.’ For CEOs, the solution lies in budgeting practices that minimise the impact of these psychological factors on resource allocation. For example, power dynamics can be reduced by holding project review meetings with small groups of stakeholders who have a high degree of independence. Also consider ranking projects company-wide by profitability or return on capital to create a common fact base for discussion. About half of CEOs believe that GenAI will increase the profitability of their company in the year ahead. At the same time, only a third (33%) say they have a high degree of trust in having AI embedded into key processes. As you might expect, CEOs who trust AI reported higher gains from GenAI over the last 12 months and expect higher gains from the technology in the year ahead. They are also more likely to be moving forward with integration of GenAI into technology platforms, business processes and workflows. The wide distribution of CEO trust in AI mirrors that among the wider population. A key difference is that CEO opinions can have bigger consequences. The question for CEOs at the low end of the trust spectrum is whether they are actively working to understand and address the issues—or simply allowing their scepticism to get in the way of the opportunity. At this early stage of GenAI’s development, ‘bounded optimism’ feels like an appropriate stance. Uninformed pessimism does not.
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There are companies of all sizes in this group, but those at the smaller end of our sample (with revenues below US dollar one hundred million) are represented more heavily. When it comes to venturing beyond sector boundaries, agility matters. Among the sectors CEOs say they are moving into are business services (with new competitors coming from technology, telecommunications and media), health services (with new competitors coming from insurance, tech and telecom), and consumer markets (with new competitors coming from pharmaceuticals, banking and media). These findings ring true. Consider, for example, moves by telecom companies to generate additional revenue by offering business customers a range of services beyond connectivity, or moves by health insurers into healthcare provision, or moves by banks to offer consumers additional fee-based services. We expect industry reconfiguration to accelerate in the decade to come. For CEOs, the challenge is to envision the ecosystem in which their company will operate in the future. This means thinking through the impacts of megatrends (notably, but not only, climate change and AI), how customer needs will change, how value pools will shift and what roles distinct types of companies will play. Alliances and partnerships are essential sources of learning (as well as revenue) on the journey towards new domains of growth. New expertise within the executive team may also be needed, although hiring one or two new functional leaders is never the full solution. Navigating industry reconfiguration is a job for the top team as a whole, with strong support from the board. Leading a company during a period of great change requires decision-making that is well informed, disciplined and unbiased. Yet many CEOs tell us that their company’s strategic decision-making processes are inconsistent at best. For example, proven practices for countering confirmation bias include making decision criteria transparent in advance, deliberately canvassing alternative points of view and intentionally seeking out information that contradicts the investment hypothesis. Only about half of companies regularly employ the full suite of these techniques for strategic decisions. Similarly, almost six in ten CEOs told us that they usually judge strategic decisions by their outcomes, not by the quality of the process. The only thing leaders can fully control is the quality of the decision-making process. Our survey results suggest that CEOs are leaving money on the table by not following the best practices of decision-making: companies with higher-quality processes for making strategic decisions report higher profit margins. Decisions sometimes need to be made quickly, before every box has been ticked. But there is compelling evidence that stronger decision-making processes typically result in better decisions—especially under conditions of uncertainty, when intuition and experience are unreliable guides. In the current environment, with very high levels of uncertainty across multiple dimensions, decision quality is paramount. Thorough, fact-based decision-making also comes into its own when emotions run high. On climate change, for example, CEOs are under scrutiny from customers, employees, investors and even family members. The same goes for how CEOs handle decisions related to AI, and questions about the future of legacy businesses in the face of industry reconfiguration. In these circumstances, robust decision-making processes can break deadlocks and support a bias to action. Our survey data confirms this: CEOs who report stronger decision processes also report more reinvention actions. Dynamic resource reallocation is a prerequisite for reinvention. For example, it is impossible to rapidly build a large new business without actively reallocating resources from lower-priority projects. Yet a large majority of companies lack agility when it comes to moving financial investments and people between projects and business units. About half of CEOs tell us that they reallocate ten percent or less of financial and human resources from year to year. More than two-thirds say they reallocate less than twenty percent, a finding similar to that of last year’s survey. Active reallocation of people, in particular, is associated with higher profitability. The difference in profit margin between low human resource reallocation (less than ten percent) and high reallocation (thirty to forty percent) is more than two percentage points. There is also a strong link between higher levels of resource reallocation (both financial and human resources) and the amount of revenue coming from distinct new businesses—underlining that reinvention and dynamic resource reallocation go hand in hand. Why don’t companies reallocate resources more actively from year to year when the evidence in favour of doing so is so consistent? Cognitive biases are at work. These include anchoring (an overreliance on arbitrary benchmarks, such as last year’s budget numbers) and naive diversification (the tendency to allocate resources equally across available options instead of weighting investments strategically). Organisational psychologist Robert Sutton reminded us that poorly designed incentives are also a factor: ‘In so many organisations, when a manager has more people reporting to him or her, they get paid more. So, literally, we have incentives for people building larger and larger fiefdoms.’ For CEOs, the solution lies in budgeting practices that minimise the impact of these psychological factors on resource allocation. For example, power dynamics can be reduced by holding project review meetings with small groups of stakeholders who have a high degree of independence. Also consider ranking projects company-wide by profitability or return on capital to create a common fact base for discussion. About half of CEOs believe that GenAI will increase the profitability of their company in the year ahead. At the same time, only a third (thirty-three percent) say they have a high degree of trust in having AI embedded into key processes. As you might expect, CEOs who trust AI reported higher gains from GenAI over the last twelve months and expect higher gains from the technology in the year ahead. They are also more likely to be moving forward with integration of GenAI into technology platforms, business processes and workflows. The wide distribution of CEO trust in AI mirrors that among the wider population. A key difference is that CEO opinions can have bigger consequences. The question for CEOs at the low end of the trust spectrum is whether they are actively working to understand and address the issues—or simply allowing their scepticism to get in the way of the opportunity. At this early stage of GenAI’s development, ‘bounded optimism’ feels like an appropriate stance. Uninformed pessimism does not.
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China has become a tougher market. For global companies, China’s skilled labor force, extensive supplier ecosystem, and fast-growing domestic markets have long acted as a magnet for manufacturers. As labor costs have increased and worker productivity has declined, companies are struggling to find objective ways to gauge employee effectiveness. The COVID-19 pandemic broke traditional models of employment, says Leena Nair, former CHRO of Unilever. In all 15 countries surveyed by McKinsey, toxic workplace behavior was the biggest predictor of burnout symptoms and intent to leave—by a large margin. Under former president and CEO Mark Thompson’s watch, the New York Times’s digital readership jumped from half a million to nearly 5.7 million. Social media has four primary functions for businesses, including using social channels to respond to consumer requests. Generative AI is particularly good at generating personalized content and communication, due to its ability to analyze customer characteristics, behavior, and preferences.
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China has become a tougher market. For global companies, China’s skilled labor force, extensive supplier ecosystem, and fast-growing domestic markets have long acted as a magnet for manufacturers. As labor costs have increased and worker productivity has declined, companies are struggling to find objective ways to gauge employee effectiveness. The COVID-19 pandemic broke traditional models of employment, says Leena Nair, former CHRO of Unilever. In all fifteen countries surveyed by McKinsey, toxic workplace behavior was the biggest predictor of burnout symptoms and intent to leave—by a large margin. Under former president and CEO Mark Thompson’s watch, the New York Times’s digital readership jumped from half a million to nearly five point seven million. Social media has four primary functions for businesses, including using social channels to respond to consumer requests. Generative AI is particularly good at generating personalized content and communication, due to its ability to analyze customer characteristics, behavior, and preferences.
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So I caught up with a friend. I love her, she's smart. And after we grabbed our coffees, Shannon looked at me, and she said, "Michael, you're a good guy. I need your help. I need your advice." And my monster was delighted. She started telling me what was going on, and I started to pretend to listen. Because, quite frankly, my advice monster already knew. But I'm pretty good. You know, you tip your head. You look engaged, yet caring, yet concerned. Small, meaningless words of encouragement. Mhm. Yeah. Sure. Yeah, right. Oh, you go girlfriend. Exactly. But honestly, my advice monster's like, "Could we just hurry this up, please? Because time is short." Finally, Shannon finished. So finally, I was able. And make no mistake, it was brilliant. Shannon -- tipped her head on the side, looked engaged, yet caring, yet concerned, started nodding, made small, Yeah, maybe. OK. Yeah, nice idea. Honestly, my advice, my advice monster had sabotaged. Now this isn’t just a Michael thing. It's not even a mansplaining thing. You, all of you. Somebody starts telling you, you don't really know the situation. You don't really know the people involved. You certainly don't have the full context. You definitely don't have. And after about 10 seconds, "Oh, oh, I've got something to say here." You know, research tells us tend to interrupt their patients. But that's not really a medical thing. It's a human thing. Now I can see some of you and you're thinking to yourself, Other people's advice monsters, really, really pretty irritating. But my advice, my advice. And what's wrong with advice, anyway? Well, look, there is nothing. Advice is a key part of civilization. I mean, TED, TEDx. The problem isn't with advice. The problem is when giving advice. And we all have this ingrained. For most of us, it's become a habit. It's become an advice-giving habit. Or ... AGH for short. And it turns out, there are three ways. The first two are kind of connected. Here's the first challenge. You're busy solving the wrong problem. This happens all the time. We get seduced into thinking that the first challenge. It almost never is. It's people's best guess, it's their first hypothesis, it's a stab in the dark, but it's really rare is the real challenge. But let's just say, that somehow, miraculously, you are finding and working. Here's the second issue. Your advice is not nearly. And if you're thinking to yourself, My advice is magnificent. Well, I'd encourage you to go watch that will explain just how bad particularly if you think. But those first two are just you and resources and money. So, you know, no big deal. The third issue about giving advice and it cuts both ways. If you are on the receiving end of advice, if you're on the receiving end, you're constantly getting the message. And that cuts away at your sense, and your sense of autonomy. And if you're on the other side, if you have an advice monster, and if I can be clear, well, forget about the fact, and forget about the fact to everybody around you. Just that added responsibility and to save the person, it’s exhausting and it’s frustrating. Now I can see you looking at me. Point well made. We get this. Yeah, fair enough. And I know you do get it. It's straightforward. You get this. In theory. In practice, this is still how. That. So what's going on with that? Well, it's your advice monster. You keep feeding it, and it is insatiable. Somebody starts talking and your advice monster and goes, "Oh, oh, I'm going to add. Yes, I am! Here I go!" You have to learn to tame. And to tame it. And it turns out your advice monster. And you listen up, you'll hear the one. The first persona. Tell it. It's the loudest of the three. It has convinced you is to have the answers, to have all the answers to all the things. If you don't have all the answers, then you fail. Anybody kind of know this one? Yeah, I thought as much. The second advice monster. It’s called “Save it.” Save it has put its arm. "Your job, your only job. Don't let anybody stumble. Don't let anybody fail. If anybody struggles at all, you fail." Anybody know this one? Any parents in the room, for instance? Exactly. The third of the advice monsters, the sneakiest of the three. Control it has convinced you is to maintain control at all times. Don't let go the grip of anything. If anybody else takes over control, then you and they will definitely fail. Anybody know Control it? That's my favorite one personally. And in fact, there's something. And this is an important point. In that singular moment, you are saying that you are better. You are better than the other person. You're saying that they're not up to it. You're saying they're not good enough, wise enough, fast enough. You're basically saying. But it's not only the other person in this moment when your advice, you're diminished as well. Because when your advice, you lose that connection to your humanity. You lose that connection and your sense of vulnerability. You start using your answers. Now I was going to give you about the power of empathy. And then I thought to myself, Brené Brown. Oh, oh, the Dalai Lama. Oh, Jesus. OK, I think this ground. So ... Rather than that, on how you might go about. And what you're looking to do, the advice-giving habit, with a new habit. Can you stay curious a little bit longer? It's as simple and as difficult as that. Can you stay curious a little bit longer? How do you stay curious? Well, questions. They're the light that holds back. So let me share with you I wished I'd asked Shannon when we were in that cafe together. The first question is this: What's the real challenge here for you? What's the real challenge here for you? It's the focus question. It recognizes that at the start neither of you really know. You just both think you do. So not only does "What's the real challenge here for you?" keep your advice monster at bay, it repositions you to say, "The most important thing is to help you find. Not to provide the fast, wrong answer, which is what happens right now." The second question that I wish. "And what else?" "And what else?" So the acronym is A-W-E. It's literally an awesome question. And "and what else" has it as the insight that the first answer they give you and it's rarely their best answer. So when you ask "and what else," not only does it tame your advice monster, but it helps you go deeper and further. So before I give you the third question, let me just show you how these two. We're going to do something live. I want you to think of a real challenge. It can be big. It can be small. It can be about life. It can be about a project, a person. I don't mind what it is. Take your best guess. This is the real thing. You can write it down if you want. And now you've got that challenge in mind, I'm going to ask you a question. Here it is. Thinking of that challenge, what's the real challenge here for you? What's the real challenge here for you? Yeah, I can see people working. I can hear brains ticking over. This is great. Stuff's opening up for you. You're like, "OK, I think I've got." That's nice, but we're not done yet. Let me ask you another question. And what else? What else is a real. Because I know there's more. So what else? What else is a real. Just notice how that's popping up, which is lovely. But of course we're not done yet. I've got another question for you. What else? What else is a real. Because there's still more. Some of you are like, "This is amazing. I didn't know this was all here. Where is this all coming from?" I've got one final question for you. I'm going to step to the edge just to make it really dramatic. Now that you've considered all of that and you've done some thinking ... What's the real challenge here for you? Exactly, your head explodes. You're like, "Oh my God." And for some of you, you're like, "Wow, this is really in a minute or less. Just open up a new way of seeing this." But actually, here's. You will notice that your answer and your answer.
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So I caught up with a friend. I love her, she's smart. And after we grabbed our coffees, Shannon looked at me, and she said, "Michael, you're a good guy. I need your help. I need your advice." And my monster was delighted. She started telling me what was going on, and I started to pretend to listen. Because, quite frankly, my advice monster already knew. But I'm pretty good. You know, you tip your head. You look engaged, yet caring, yet concerned. Small, meaningless words of encouragement. Mhm. Yeah. Sure. Yeah, right. Oh, you go girlfriend. Exactly. But honestly, my advice monster's like, "Could we just hurry this up, please? Because time is short." Finally, Shannon finished. So finally, I was able. And make no mistake, it was brilliant. Shannon -- tipped her head on the side, looked engaged, yet caring, yet concerned, started nodding, made small, Yeah, maybe. OK. Yeah, nice idea. Honestly, my advice, my advice monster had sabotaged. Now this isn’t just a Michael thing. It's not even a mansplaining thing. You, all of you. Somebody starts telling you, you don't really know the situation. You don't really know the people involved. You certainly don't have the full context. You definitely don't have. And after about ten seconds, "Oh, oh, I've got something to say here." You know, research tells us tend to interrupt their patients. But that's not really a medical thing. It's a human thing. Now I can see some of you and you're thinking to yourself, Other people's advice monsters, really, really pretty irritating. But my advice, my advice. And what's wrong with advice, anyway? Well, look, there is nothing. Advice is a key part of civilization. I mean, TED, TEDx. The problem isn't with advice. The problem is when giving advice. And we all have this ingrained. For most of us, it's become a habit. It's become an advice-giving habit. Or ... AGH for short. And it turns out, there are three ways. The first two are kind of connected. Here's the first challenge. You're busy solving the wrong problem. This happens all the time. We get seduced into thinking that the first challenge. It almost never is. It's people's best guess, it's their first hypothesis, it's a stab in the dark, but it's really rare is the real challenge. But let's just say, that somehow, miraculously, you are finding and working. Here's the second issue. Your advice is not nearly. And if you're thinking to yourself, My advice is magnificent. Well, I'd encourage you to go watch that will explain just how bad particularly if you think. But those first two are just you and resources and money. So, you know, no big deal. The third issue about giving advice and it cuts both ways. If you are on the receiving end of advice, if you're on the receiving end, you're constantly getting the message. And that cuts away at your sense, and your sense of autonomy. And if you're on the other side, if you have an advice monster, and if I can be clear, well, forget about the fact, and forget about the fact to everybody around you. Just that added responsibility and to save the person, it’s exhausting and it’s frustrating. Now I can see you looking at me. Point well made. We get this. Yeah, fair enough. And I know you do get it. It's straightforward. You get this. In theory. In practice, this is still how. That. So what's going on with that? Well, it's your advice monster. You keep feeding it, and it is insatiable. Somebody starts talking and your advice monster and goes, "Oh, oh, I'm going to add. Yes, I am! Here I go!" You have to learn to tame. And to tame it. And it turns out your advice monster. And you listen up, you'll hear the one. The first persona. Tell it. It's the loudest of the three. It has convinced you is to have the answers, to have all the answers to all the things. If you don't have all the answers, then you fail. Anybody kind of know this one? Yeah, I thought as much. The second advice monster. It’s called “Save it.” Save it has put its arm. "Your job, your only job. Don't let anybody stumble. Don't let anybody fail. If anybody struggles at all, you fail." Anybody know this one? Any parents in the room, for instance? Exactly. The third of the advice monsters, the sneakiest of the three. Control it has convinced you is to maintain control at all times. Don't let go the grip of anything. If anybody else takes over control, then you and they will definitely fail. Anybody know Control it? That's my favorite one personally. And in fact, there's something. And this is an important point. In that singular moment, you are saying that you are better. You are better than the other person. You're saying that they're not up to it. You're saying they're not good enough, wise enough, fast enough. You're basically saying. But it's not only the other person in this moment when your advice, you're diminished as well. Because when your advice, you lose that connection to your humanity. You lose that connection and your sense of vulnerability. You start using your answers. Now I was going to give you about the power of empathy. And then I thought to myself, Brené Brown. Oh, oh, the Dalai Lama. Oh, Jesus. OK, I think this ground. So ... Rather than that, on how you might go about. And what you're looking to do, the advice-giving habit, with a new habit. Can you stay curious a little bit longer? It's as simple and as difficult as that. Can you stay curious a little bit longer? How do you stay curious? Well, questions. They're the light that holds back. So let me share with you I wished I'd asked Shannon when we were in that cafe together. The first question is this: What's the real challenge here for you? What's the real challenge here for you? It's the focus question. It recognizes that at the start neither of you really know. You just both think you do. So not only does "What's the real challenge here for you?" keep your advice monster at bay, it repositions you to say, "The most important thing is to help you find. Not to provide the fast, wrong answer, which is what happens right now." The second question that I wish. "And what else?" "And what else?" So the acronym is A W E. It's literally an awesome question. And "and what else" has it as the insight that the first answer they give you and it's rarely their best answer. So when you ask "and what else," not only does it tame your advice monster, but it helps you go deeper and further. So before I give you the third question, let me just show you how these two. We're going to do something live. I want you to think of a real challenge. It can be big. It can be small. It can be about life. It can be about a project, a person. I don't mind what it is. Take your best guess. This is the real thing. You can write it down if you want. And now you've got that challenge in mind, I'm going to ask you a question. Here it is. Thinking of that challenge, what's the real challenge here for you? What's the real challenge here for you? Yeah, I can see people working. I can hear brains ticking over. This is great. Stuff's opening up for you. You're like, "OK, I think I've got." That's nice, but we're not done yet. Let me ask you another question. And what else? What else is a real. Because I know there's more. So what else? What else is a real. Just notice how that's popping up, which is lovely. But of course we're not done yet. I've got another question for you. What else? What else is a real. Because there's still more. Some of you are like, "This is amazing. I didn't know this was all here. Where is this all coming from?" I've got one final question for you. I'm going to step to the edge just to make it really dramatic. Now that you've considered all of that and you've done some thinking ... What's the real challenge here for you? Exactly, your head explodes. You're like, "Oh my God." And for some of you, you're like, "Wow, this is really in a minute or less. Just open up a new way of seeing this." But actually, here's. You will notice that your answer and your answer.
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First, early-warning models and indicators use information in current data in order to signal the presence of emerging imbalances and risks without adding exogenous shocks that are not priced in by the market. Second, macro-stress-testing models are used to assess the resilience of the financial system against extreme but plausible scenarios of widespread exogenous shocks, irrespective of whether current market data give a particular weight to them. Third, contagion and spillover models assess the transmission of instability among financial intermediaries and among financial markets to the extent that the sources are not common. Financial stability indicators, the fourth approach, display the current state of systemic instability in order to, for example, identify the presence of crises. The specific tools underpinning these approaches are broadly available, although further research efforts are also necessary. The financial crisis has demonstrated the critical role played by some large and complex financial institutions in undermining financial stability. Particular attention is currently being paid by policy-makers to the question as to how systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) should be regulated and how failures, if they occur, should be resolved. This special feature provides an overview of the ongoing initiatives at the European and international level to deal with these institutions in the broader context of measures aimed at curbing moral hazard and institutions’ contributions to systemic risk. The recent global financial crisis has illustrated the role of financial linkages as a channel for the propagation of shocks. It also brought to the fore the concept that institutions may be "too interconnected to fail", in addition to the traditional concept of being "too big to fail". This special feature introduces recent research on networks in disciplines other than economics, reviews its application to financial networks and discusses how network analysis can be used to gain a better understanding of the financial system and enhance its stability. As the impact of the recent financial crisis began to spread beyond mature economy financial systems, attention was increasingly drawn to the potential systemic risks associated with the prevalence of foreign currency lending in some EU Member States. Although the direct exchange rate risk for banks in most of these countries is controlled by regulatory limits on open foreign exchange positions, banks are still exposed to the indirect exchange rate risk that can arise from currency mismatches on their clients’ balance sheets. This special feature summarises the measures that have been taken by several EU countries to address the financial stability risks related to rapidly expanding foreign currency lending to the non-financial private sector. The experience gained so far indicates that the effectiveness of these measures has been rather limited. Although a variety of factors appear to explain this, what has been particularly important is the persistence of wide differentials in the interest rates paid on loans in domestic currency over those paid in foreign currency, as well as the intensity of bank competition. Moreover, countries’ experiences have revealed that when the presence of foreign-owned banks in local markets is significant, as is the case in non-euro area EU countries in central and eastern Europe, the impact of implementing these measures has been materially curtailed. On 23 June 2009 the ESCB and CESR published "Recommendations for securities settlement stems and recommendations for central counterparties in the European Union". The main aim of the ESCB-CESR recommendations is to promote efficient, safe and sound pan-European post-trading arrangements in order to facilitate greater confidence in securities markets, ensure better investor protection, contain systemic risk and foster financial stability. Furthermore, the recommendations seek to improve the efficiency of the market infrastructure, which should in turn promote and sustain wider financial market integration and efficiency in Europe. Investment risks are usually one of the most important types of risk an insurance company is confronted with. To mitigate investment risks, insurers often invest in various markets to spread their exposures. It is, therefore, important to analyse the conditions in the markets in which insurers invest and to combine this information with that on insurers’ investment exposures to assess insurers’ investment risks. This box proposes some measures of investment uncertainty, from an insurer’s perspective, for the key markets in which insurers invest. It combines these measures with investment exposure data for a sample of large euro area insurers to assess their overall level of investment risk. The financial turmoil has highlighted the importance of counterparty risk management for banks. An issue of particular relevance in this context has been counterparty risk that may crystallise through the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets, as shown by the acute difficulties experienced by market participants in the aftermath of the default or near default of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and AIG. These cases have highlighted the typically opaque linkages within the OTC markets, which led to a situation in which some market participants may have become too big or interconnected to fail. In view of these developments, the ESCB’s Banking Supervision Committee (BSC) carried out a study aimed at assessing the counterparty risk and the main related risks faced by European market participants that are active in, and exposed to, the credit default swap (CDS) market. The report was based on survey data collected from a sample of 31 EU banks, as well as from a number of public and private data sources, and has benefited from market intelligence. This box summarises some of the main findings and policy measures outlined in the report. In response to the intensified financial market stresses in the autumn of 2008, euro area governments implemented coordinated support measures to alleviate strains on their banking systems. These measures complemented the extensive liquidity support that has simultaneously been provided by the ECB. This box summarises the public measures that have been taken and discusses their implications for euro area governments’ fiscal balances.
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First, early-warning models and indicators use information in current data in order to signal the presence of emerging imbalances and risks without adding exogenous shocks that are not priced in by the market. Second, macro-stress-testing models are used to assess the resilience of the financial system against extreme but plausible scenarios of widespread exogenous shocks, irrespective of whether current market data give a particular weight to them. Third, contagion and spillover models assess the transmission of instability among financial intermediaries and among financial markets to the extent that the sources are not common. Financial stability indicators, the fourth approach, display the current state of systemic instability in order to, for example, identify the presence of crises. The specific tools underpinning these approaches are broadly available, although further research efforts are also necessary. The financial crisis has demonstrated the critical role played by some large and complex financial institutions in undermining financial stability. Particular attention is currently being paid by policy-makers to the question as to how systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) should be regulated and how failures, if they occur, should be resolved. This special feature provides an overview of the ongoing initiatives at the European and international level to deal with these institutions in the broader context of measures aimed at curbing moral hazard and institutions’ contributions to systemic risk. The recent global financial crisis has illustrated the role of financial linkages as a channel for the propagation of shocks. It also brought to the fore the concept that institutions may be "too interconnected to fail", in addition to the traditional concept of being "too big to fail". This special feature introduces recent research on networks in disciplines other than economics, reviews its application to financial networks and discusses how network analysis can be used to gain a better understanding of the financial system and enhance its stability. As the impact of the recent financial crisis began to spread beyond mature economy financial systems, attention was increasingly drawn to the potential systemic risks associated with the prevalence of foreign currency lending in some EU Member States. Although the direct exchange rate risk for banks in most of these countries is controlled by regulatory limits on open foreign exchange positions, banks are still exposed to the indirect exchange rate risk that can arise from currency mismatches on their clients’ balance sheets. This special feature summarises the measures that have been taken by several EU countries to address the financial stability risks related to rapidly expanding foreign currency lending to the non-financial private sector. The experience gained so far indicates that the effectiveness of these measures has been rather limited. Although a variety of factors appear to explain this, what has been particularly important is the persistence of wide differentials in the interest rates paid on loans in domestic currency over those paid in foreign currency, as well as the intensity of bank competition. Moreover, countries’ experiences have revealed that when the presence of foreign-owned banks in local markets is significant, as is the case in non-euro area EU countries in central and eastern Europe, the impact of implementing these measures has been materially curtailed. On twenty three June two thousand nine the ESCB and CESR published "Recommendations for securities settlement stems and recommendations for central counterparties in the European Union". The main aim of the ESCB-CESR recommendations is to promote efficient, safe and sound pan-European post-trading arrangements in order to facilitate greater confidence in securities markets, ensure better investor protection, contain systemic risk and foster financial stability. Furthermore, the recommendations seek to improve the efficiency of the market infrastructure, which should in turn promote and sustain wider financial market integration and efficiency in Europe. Investment risks are usually one of the most important types of risk an insurance company is confronted with. To mitigate investment risks, insurers often invest in various markets to spread their exposures. It is, therefore, important to analyse the conditions in the markets in which insurers invest and to combine this information with that on insurers’ investment exposures to assess insurers’ investment risks. This box proposes some measures of investment uncertainty, from an insurer’s perspective, for the key markets in which insurers invest. It combines these measures with investment exposure data for a sample of large euro area insurers to assess their overall level of investment risk. The financial turmoil has highlighted the importance of counterparty risk management for banks. An issue of particular relevance in this context has been counterparty risk that may crystallise through the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets, as shown by the acute difficulties experienced by market participants in the aftermath of the default or near default of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and AIG. These cases have highlighted the typically opaque linkages within the OTC markets, which led to a situation in which some market participants may have become too big or interconnected to fail. In view of these developments, the ESCB’s Banking Supervision Committee (BSC) carried out a study aimed at assessing the counterparty risk and the main related risks faced by European market participants that are active in, and exposed to, the credit default swap (CDS) market. The report was based on survey data collected from a sample of thirty one EU banks, as well as from a number of public and private data sources, and has benefited from market intelligence. This box summarises some of the main findings and policy measures outlined in the report. In response to the intensified financial market stresses in the autumn of two thousand eight, euro area governments implemented coordinated support measures to alleviate strains on their banking systems. These measures complemented the extensive liquidity support that has simultaneously been provided by the ECB. This box summarises the public measures that have been taken and discusses their implications for euro area governments’ fiscal balances.
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So with that, let me just show you a quick video to get you in the mood of what we're trying to explain. Narrator: We are all aware of the risk of cancer, but there's another disease that's destined to affect even more of us: arthritis. Cancer may kill you, but when you look at the numbers, arthritis ruins more lives. Assuming you live a long life, there's a 50 percent chance you'll develop arthritis. And it's not just aging that causes arthritis. Common injuries can lead to decades of pain, until our joints quite literally grind to a halt. Desperate for a solution, we've turned to engineering to design artificial components to replace our worn-out body parts, but in the midst of the modern buzz around the promises of a bionic body, shouldn't we stop and ask if there's a better, more natural way? Let's consider an alternative path. What if all the replacements our bodies need already exist in nature, or within our own stem cells? This is the field of biologic replacements, where we replace worn-out parts with new, natural ones. Kevin Stone: And so, the mission is: how do I treat these things biologically? And let's talk about both what I did for my wife, and what I've done for hundreds of other patients. First thing for my wife, and the most common thing I hear from my patients, particularly in the 40- to 80-year-old age group, 70-year-old age group, is they come in and say, "Hey, Doc, isn't there just a shock absorber you can put in my knee? I'm not ready for joint replacement." And so for her, I put in a human meniscus allograft donor right into that [knee] joint space. And [the allograft] replaces [the missing meniscus]. And then for that unstable ligament, we put in a human donor ligament to stabilize the knee. And then for the damaged arthritis on the surface, we did a stem cell paste graft, which we designed in 1991, to regrow that articular cartilage surface and give it back a smooth surface there. So here's my wife's bad knee on the left, and her just hiking now four months later in Aspen, and doing well. And it works, not just for my wife, but certainly for other patients. The girl on the video, Jen Hudak, just won the Superpipe in Aspen just nine months after having destroyed her knee, as you see in the other image -- and having a paste graft to that knee. And so we can regrow these surfaces biologically. So with all this success, why isn't that good enough? You might ask. Well, the reason is because there's not enough donor cycles. There's not enough young, healthy people falling off their motorcycle and donating that tissue to us. And the tissue's very expensive. And so that's not going to be a solution that's going to get us global with biologic tissue. But the solution is animal tissue because it's plentiful. It's cheap. You can get it from young, healthy tissues, but the barrier is immunology. And the specific barrier is a specific epitope called the galactosyl, or gal epitope. So if we're going to transplant animal tissues to people, we have to figure out a way to get rid of that epitope. So my story in working with animal tissues starts in 1984. And I started first with cow Achilles tendon, where we would take the cow Achilles tendon, which is type-I collagen, strip it of its antigens by degrading it with an acid and detergent wash and forming it into a regeneration template. We would then take that regeneration template and insert it into the missing meniscus cartilage to regrow that in a patient's knee. We've now done that procedure, and it's been done worldwide in over 4,000 cases, so it's an FDA-approved and worldwide-accepted way to regrow the meniscus. And that's great when I can degrade the tissue. But what happens for your ligament when I need an intact ligament? I can't grind it up in a blender. So in that case, I have to design -- and we designed with Uri Galili and Tom Turek -- an enzyme wash to wash away, or strip, those galactosyl epitopes with a specific enzyme. And we call that a "gal stripping" technique. What we do is humanize the tissue. It's by gal stripping that tissue we humanize it, and then we can put it back into a patient's knee. And we've done that. Now we've taken pig ligament -- young, healthy, big tissue, put it into 10 patients in an FDA-approved trial -- and then one of our patients went on to have three Canadian Masters Downhill championships -- on his "pig-lig," as he calls it. So we know it can work. And there's a wide clinical trial of this tissue now pending. So what about the next step? What about getting to a total biologic knee replacement, not just the parts? How are we going to revolutionize artificial joint replacement? Well, here's how we're going to do it. So what we're going to do is take an articular cartilage from a young, healthy pig, strip it of its antigens, load it with your stem cells, then put it back on to that arthritic surface in your knee, tack it on there, have you heal that surface and then create a new biologic surface for your knee. So that's our biologic approach right now. We're going to rebuild your knee with the parts. We're going to resurface it with a completely new surface. But we have other advantages from the animal kingdom. There's a benefit of 400 million years of ambulation. We can harness those benefits. We can use thicker, younger, better tissues than you might have injured in your knee, or that you might have when you're 40, 50 or 60. We can do it as an outpatient procedure. We can strip that tissue very economically, and so this is how we can get biologic knee replacement to go global. And so welcome to super biologics. It's not hardware. It's not software. It's bioware. It's version 2.0 of you. And so with that, coming to a -- coming to an operating theater near you soon, I believe. Thank you very much.
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So with that, let me just show you a quick video to get you in the mood of what we're trying to explain. Narrator: We are all aware of the risk of cancer, but there's another disease that's destined to affect even more of us: arthritis. Cancer may kill you, but when you look at the numbers, arthritis ruins more lives. Assuming you live a long life, there's a fifty percent chance you'll develop arthritis. And it's not just aging that causes arthritis. Common injuries can lead to decades of pain, until our joints quite literally grind to a halt. Desperate for a solution, we've turned to engineering to design artificial components to replace our worn-out body parts, but in the midst of the modern buzz around the promises of a bionic body, shouldn't we stop and ask if there's a better, more natural way? Let's consider an alternative path. What if all the replacements our bodies need already exist in nature, or within our own stem cells? This is the field of biologic replacements, where we replace worn-out parts with new, natural ones. Kevin Stone: And so, the mission is: how do I treat these things biologically? And let's talk about both what I did for my wife, and what I've done for hundreds of other patients. First thing for my wife, and the most common thing I hear from my patients, particularly in the forty- to eighty-year-old age group, seventy-year-old age group, is they come in and say, "Hey, Doc, isn't there just a shock absorber you can put in my knee? I'm not ready for joint replacement." And so for her, I put in a human meniscus allograft donor right into that [knee] joint space. And [the allograft] replaces [the missing meniscus]. And then for that unstable ligament, we put in a human donor ligament to stabilize the knee. And then for the damaged arthritis on the surface, we did a stem cell paste graft, which we designed in nineteen ninety-one, to regrow that articular cartilage surface and give it back a smooth surface there. So here's my wife's bad knee on the left, and her just hiking now four months later in Aspen, and doing well. And it works, not just for my wife, but certainly for other patients. The girl on the video, Jen Hudak, just won the Superpipe in Aspen just nine months after having destroyed her knee, as you see in the other image -- and having a paste graft to that knee. And so we can regrow these surfaces biologically. So with all this success, why isn't that good enough? You might ask. Well, the reason is because there's not enough donor cycles. There's not enough young, healthy people falling off their motorcycle and donating that tissue to us. And the tissue's very expensive. And so that's not going to be a solution that's going to get us global with biologic tissue. But the solution is animal tissue because it's plentiful. It's cheap. You can get it from young, healthy tissues, but the barrier is immunology. And the specific barrier is a specific epitope called the galactosyl, or gal epitope. So if we're going to transplant animal tissues to people, we have to figure out a way to get rid of that epitope. So my story in working with animal tissues starts in nineteen eighty-four. And I started first with cow Achilles tendon, where we would take the cow Achilles tendon, which is type I collagen, strip it of its antigens by degrading it with an acid and detergent wash and forming it into a regeneration template. We would then take that regeneration template and insert it into the missing meniscus cartilage to regrow that in a patient's knee. We've now done that procedure, and it's been done worldwide in over four thousand cases, so it's an FDA-approved and worldwide-accepted way to regrow the meniscus. And that's great when I can degrade the tissue. But what happens for your ligament when I need an intact ligament? I can't grind it up in a blender. So in that case, I have to design -- and we designed with Uri Galili and Tom Turek -- an enzyme wash to wash away, or strip, those galactosyl epitopes with a specific enzyme. And we call that a "gal stripping" technique. What we do is humanize the tissue. It's by gal stripping that tissue we humanize it, and then we can put it back into a patient's knee. And we've done that. Now we've taken pig ligament -- young, healthy, big tissue, put it into ten patients in an FDA-approved trial -- and then one of our patients went on to have three Canadian Masters Downhill championships -- on his "pig-lig," as he calls it. So we know it can work. And there's a wide clinical trial of this tissue now pending. So what about the next step? What about getting to a total biologic knee replacement, not just the parts? How are we going to revolutionize artificial joint replacement? Well, here's how we're going to do it. So what we're going to do is take an articular cartilage from a young, healthy pig, strip it of its antigens, load it with your stem cells, then put it back on to that arthritic surface in your knee, tack it on there, have you heal that surface and then create a new biologic surface for your knee. So that's our biologic approach right now. We're going to rebuild your knee with the parts. We're going to resurface it with a completely new surface. But we have other advantages from the animal kingdom. There's a benefit of four hundred million years of ambulation. We can harness those benefits. We can use thicker, younger, better tissues than you might have injured in your knee, or that you might have when you're forty, fifty or sixty. We can do it as an outpatient procedure. We can strip that tissue very economically, and so this is how we can get biologic knee replacement to go global. And so welcome to super biologics. It's not hardware. It's not software. It's bioware. It's version two point zero of you. And so with that, coming to a -- coming to an operating theater near you soon, I believe. Thank you very much.
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Knowledge about such interconnections is important because it can help in mapping how, or if, strains in a large banking group could spread to other institutions or markets. Based on a multiple indicator approach, this Special Feature takes a first step towards statistically identifying banking institutions that meet certain "largeness" characteristics that go beyond balance sheet size. Information extracted from credit default swap (CDS) index tranches can provide an important contribution to a forward-looking assessment of banking system risk. The market prices of CDS index tranches provide the basis for constructing an indicator of the level of systematic risk in the credit market. In particular, this indicator describes traders’ views on the future relative development of systematic and idiosyncratic portfolio credit risk. Thus, it shows whether traders are more concerned about economy-wide credit risk or about firm-specific credit risk such as the default of a particular firm. This Special Feature constructs an estimate of the implied correlation for the euro credit market and describes its use in financial stability analysis. The three main results of this analysis are as follows. First, after January 2006, there was evidence that the focus of credit traders had moved from firm specific credit risk towards systematic credit risk. This finding can be linked to a number of fundamental determinants of credit market valuation, all of which point in the same direction. Second, the implied correlation provides detailed information about how the credit markets functioned during the May 2005 market turbulence. Third, most of the variation in the implied correlation is not linked to other financial market indicators. Credit growth has accelerated in recent years in some central and (south-) eastern European countries (CEECs). While low starting levels of financial intermediation help explain the speed of credit growth, its fast pace could raise concerns from a financial and macroeconomic stability perspective. This Special Feature suggests a methodology for analysing these episodes that explicitly accounts for both macroeconomic developments and the catching up process associated with the transition from planned to market economies that countries in the region have been undergoing. However, even if both factors are taken into account evidence is still found in some countries of higher credit growth than the empirical model would suggest. In these cases the dynamics of credit growth are nevertheless not markedly different for foreign or domestic currency lending, or for lending to households and corporations. Given the limited available data, however, these results must be interpreted with caution, and further research is called for to address issues such as the mechanisms through which the exchange rate regime, the presence of foreign banks and the range of lending products on offer may impact credit developments in the region. If very large changes in the stock prices of individual insurance undertakings tend to occur simultaneously, it can be said that extreme-value dependence is present. If such dependence is found to be present, it can indicate that these firms are exposed to common sources of risk. With a focus on gaining insight into systemic risk within the insurance sector, this Special Feature examines the incidence of extreme-value dependence across different types of insurance undertakings and it goes on to examine the main drivers of such co-movement, to the extent that it is present. A key finding is that extreme-value dependence is evident among larger composite insurers. In addition, two important drivers of extreme-value dependence between insurance companies are found: exposure to extreme financial market events, and to non-life underwriting. Since the introduction of the euro, the progress made in the integration of financial markets and market infrastructures in the EU, the growing number of internationally active institutions and the diversification of financial activities have increased the liquidity and efficiency of the relevant markets. At the same time, however, such developments have also increased the likelihood that systemic disturbances could affect more than one Member State, and possibly increase the scope for cross-border contagion. In this context, the specific arrangements for handling crises at the EU level between the authorities responsible for safeguarding financial stability have been considerably enhanced since the introduction of the euro. The enhancements include legislative initiatives in the framework of the Financial Services Action Plan (FSAP), the implementation of the Lamfalussy framework for regulation and supervision in all financial sectors, the adoption of agreements on voluntary cooperation between responsible authorities, and the development of practical arrangements, such as the organisation of financial crisis simulation exercises. This Special Feature provides a structured overview of the progress made in the specific arrangements for financial crisis management between central banks, banking supervisors and finance ministries.
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Knowledge about such interconnections is important because it can help in mapping how, or if, strains in a large banking group could spread to other institutions or markets. Based on a multiple indicator approach, this Special Feature takes a first step towards statistically identifying banking institutions that meet certain "largeness" characteristics that go beyond balance sheet size. Information extracted from credit default swap (CDS) index tranches can provide an important contribution to a forward-looking assessment of banking system risk. The market prices of CDS index tranches provide the basis for constructing an indicator of the level of systematic risk in the credit market. In particular, this indicator describes traders’ views on the future relative development of systematic and idiosyncratic portfolio credit risk. Thus, it shows whether traders are more concerned about economy-wide credit risk or about firm-specific credit risk such as the default of a particular firm. This Special Feature constructs an estimate of the implied correlation for the euro credit market and describes its use in financial stability analysis. The three main results of this analysis are as follows. First, after January two thousand six, there was evidence that the focus of credit traders had moved from firm specific credit risk towards systematic credit risk. This finding can be linked to a number of fundamental determinants of credit market valuation, all of which point in the same direction. Second, the implied correlation provides detailed information about how the credit markets functioned during the May two thousand five market turbulence. Third, most of the variation in the implied correlation is not linked to other financial market indicators. Credit growth has accelerated in recent years in some central and (south-) eastern European countries (CEECs). While low starting levels of financial intermediation help explain the speed of credit growth, its fast pace could raise concerns from a financial and macroeconomic stability perspective. This Special Feature suggests a methodology for analysing these episodes that explicitly accounts for both macroeconomic developments and the catching up process associated with the transition from planned to market economies that countries in the region have been undergoing. However, even if both factors are taken into account evidence is still found in some countries of higher credit growth than the empirical model would suggest. In these cases the dynamics of credit growth are nevertheless not markedly different for foreign or domestic currency lending, or for lending to households and corporations. Given the limited available data, however, these results must be interpreted with caution, and further research is called for to address issues such as the mechanisms through which the exchange rate regime, the presence of foreign banks and the range of lending products on offer may impact credit developments in the region. If very large changes in the stock prices of individual insurance undertakings tend to occur simultaneously, it can be said that extreme-value dependence is present. If such dependence is found to be present, it can indicate that these firms are exposed to common sources of risk. With a focus on gaining insight into systemic risk within the insurance sector, this Special Feature examines the incidence of extreme-value dependence across different types of insurance undertakings and it goes on to examine the main drivers of such co-movement, to the extent that it is present. A key finding is that extreme-value dependence is evident among larger composite insurers. In addition, two important drivers of extreme-value dependence between insurance companies are found: exposure to extreme financial market events, and to non-life underwriting. Since the introduction of the euro, the progress made in the integration of financial markets and market infrastructures in the EU, the growing number of internationally active institutions and the diversification of financial activities have increased the liquidity and efficiency of the relevant markets. At the same time, however, such developments have also increased the likelihood that systemic disturbances could affect more than one Member State, and possibly increase the scope for cross-border contagion. In this context, the specific arrangements for handling crises at the EU level between the authorities responsible for safeguarding financial stability have been considerably enhanced since the introduction of the euro. The enhancements include legislative initiatives in the framework of the Financial Services Action Plan (FSAP), the implementation of the Lamfalussy framework for regulation and supervision in all financial sectors, the adoption of agreements on voluntary cooperation between responsible authorities, and the development of practical arrangements, such as the organisation of financial crisis simulation exercises. This Special Feature provides a structured overview of the progress made in the specific arrangements for financial crisis management between central banks, banking supervisors and finance ministries.
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In the case of the United Kingdom, however, it was the resolute accommodative monetary policy actions by the Bank of England that supported financial conditions after the referendum. Turning to the euro area, policy uncertainty increased in several countries in the first months of 2017. Looking ahead, further shocks stemming from the political sphere may, in the absence of offsetting factors, tighten domestic financial conditions, increase risk premia and potentially raise debt sustainability concerns. Excessive credit growth and leverage have been key drivers of past financial crises, notably the recent global financial crisis. For the appropriate setting of countercyclical macroprudential policy instruments, it is therefore important to identify periods of excessive credit developments at an early stage. This special feature discusses the standard statistical method for computing credit gaps and compares it with an alternative approach to measuring credit excesses based on fundamental economic factors. Theory-based credit gaps could provide a useful complement to statistical measures of cyclical systemic risk. Large stocks of non-performing loans (NPLs) on euro area bank balance sheets continue to present risks to financial stability. Significant legal and administrative reforms have been undertaken over recent years in countries with high levels of NPLs to streamline insolvency proceedings and maximise NPL recovery values. Yet, the market continues to provide low NPL valuations that result in wide bid-ask spreads, thus impeding large-scale NPL sales. This special feature highlights the potential role and benefits of co-investment strategies (between the private sector and the state) for addressing NPLs. These co-investment strategies may reduce information asymmetries between buyers and sellers, thereby enabling transactions that might otherwise not occur, or facilitate sales at higher prices. Moreover, the proposed schemes are priced at market levels and may, therefore, be free of state aid. The sectoral distribution of holdings of bank debt has a clear bearing on contagion and – by extension – on financial stability in the event of bank distress. Indeed, under the new bail-in regime in the EU, eventual write-downs (and/or conversion into equity) upon bank bail-in need to be distributed among shareholders and creditors according to a predefined creditor hierarchy, while avoiding contagion effects on the broader financial system. On the one hand, if a bank were to struggle, high financial sector concentration of its bail-inable debt could lead to concerns over spillover effects. On the other hand, if the bail-inable instruments were held mainly by the household sector, the use of bail-in tools in a bank resolution process may have negative effects on the economy resulting from effects on spending and potential political tensions. Financial distress in the non-bank financial sector can be transmitted to the banking sector through a number of direct and indirect transmission channels.
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In the case of the United Kingdom, however, it was the resolute accommodative monetary policy actions by the Bank of England that supported financial conditions after the referendum. Turning to the euro area, policy uncertainty increased in several countries in the first months of two thousand seventeen. Looking ahead, further shocks stemming from the political sphere may, in the absence of offsetting factors, tighten domestic financial conditions, increase risk premia and potentially raise debt sustainability concerns. Excessive credit growth and leverage have been key drivers of past financial crises, notably the recent global financial crisis. For the appropriate setting of countercyclical macroprudential policy instruments, it is therefore important to identify periods of excessive credit developments at an early stage. This special feature discusses the standard statistical method for computing credit gaps and compares it with an alternative approach to measuring credit excesses based on fundamental economic factors. Theory-based credit gaps could provide a useful complement to statistical measures of cyclical systemic risk. Large stocks of non-performing loans (NPLs) on euro area bank balance sheets continue to present risks to financial stability. Significant legal and administrative reforms have been undertaken over recent years in countries with high levels of NPLs to streamline insolvency proceedings and maximise NPL recovery values. Yet, the market continues to provide low NPL valuations that result in wide bid-ask spreads, thus impeding large-scale NPL sales. This special feature highlights the potential role and benefits of co-investment strategies (between the private sector and the state) for addressing NPLs. These co-investment strategies may reduce information asymmetries between buyers and sellers, thereby enabling transactions that might otherwise not occur, or facilitate sales at higher prices. Moreover, the proposed schemes are priced at market levels and may, therefore, be free of state aid. The sectoral distribution of holdings of bank debt has a clear bearing on contagion and – by extension – on financial stability in the event of bank distress. Indeed, under the new bail-in regime in the EU, eventual write-downs (and/or conversion into equity) upon bank bail-in need to be distributed among shareholders and creditors according to a predefined creditor hierarchy, while avoiding contagion effects on the broader financial system. On the one hand, if a bank were to struggle, high financial sector concentration of its bail-inable debt could lead to concerns over spillover effects. On the other hand, if the bail-inable instruments were held mainly by the household sector, the use of bail-in tools in a bank resolution process may have negative effects on the economy resulting from effects on spending and potential political tensions. Financial distress in the non-bank financial sector can be transmitted to the banking sector through a number of direct and indirect transmission channels.
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In Europe the increased focus on macro-prudential policy has led to the establishment of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB). The ESRB will have responsibility for EU-wide macro-prudential oversight and policy recommendation. The global financial crisis has revealed important deficiencies of the standard macroeconomic models in capturing financial instabilities. Realistic characterisations of such instabilities include bank defaults, financial market illiquidity, extreme events, and related non-linearities. None of these feature in the macroeconomic models regularly used for forecasting and monetary policy analysis and only recently has more emphasis been given to better developing the role of financial sectors in these models. This gap is of particular concern given the ongoing efforts to establish serious macro-prudential oversight and regulation to counter systemic risks. The aim of this special feature is to provide an overview of the recent upsurge in research papers trying to integrate more developed financial sectors in standard macroeconomic models and to compare this work with what is needed for the support of macro-prudential policies. One conclusion is that very significant further research efforts are needed, including attempts using modelling approaches that deviate from the currently dominating macroeconomic paradigm. It is of great importance that the academic and policy-oriented research communities join forces in working towards this objective. A host of new quantitative measures of systemic risk have recently been proposed in the academic and central banking literature. The stated purpose of these tools is to support macro-prudential oversight and inform policy decisions. This special feature surveys these measures, focusing primarily on the most recent developments that have not yet been covered in the ECB’s Financial Stability Review, and explains what can be learned from them. The strengths and weaknesses of approaches when applied in a macro-prudential context are discussed. Significant research in this area has addressed how to measure the systemic importance of specific financial intermediaries, for example by estimating the externalities they may exert on the financial system. With the rising number of different analytical measures and models it becomes increasingly important to prioritise between them and to construct a system of measures that, overall, covers all dimensions of systemic risk and how they relate to each other. Large and increasing investment exposures to government bonds have left insurers more vulnerable to changes in long-term risk-free interest rates and their levels. However, changes in risk-free interest rates affect both the asset and the liability side of insurers’ balance sheets. This box discusses the various ways in which interest rate levels and changes impact insurers, with the aim of shedding some light on whether low-risk free interest rates are good or bad for insurers. Investment risks are one of the most prominent risks that insurers and pensions funds are confronted with, and the analysis of insurers’ and pension funds’ financial asset positions is therefore an important element in financial stability analysis. From a broader financial stability perspective, it is also important to analyse the investment of insurers and pension funds, since portfolio reallocation of insurers, or the unwinding of positions, has the potential to affect financial stability by destabilising asset prices. In addition, the investment of insurers and pension funds create important financial links to, in particular, governments and banks. On 21 January, 2010, the US Administration proposed a new set of broad regulatory initiatives for the banking sector. Among these, there was support for the proposal put forward by Paul Volcker, the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, which, in practice, recommends restrictions on banks’ business models. The so-called "Volcker rule" aims to prevent banks that have access to central bank and deposit insurance facilities from trading on their own account, as well as from owning and investing in hedge funds and private equity. In a way, the initiative brings back to the regulatory landscape a modified version of the Glass-Steagall restrictions on banks’ securities business.
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In Europe the increased focus on macro-prudential policy has led to the establishment of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB). The ESRB will have responsibility for EU-wide macro-prudential oversight and policy recommendation. The global financial crisis has revealed important deficiencies of the standard macroeconomic models in capturing financial instabilities. Realistic characterisations of such instabilities include bank defaults, financial market illiquidity, extreme events, and related non-linearities. None of these feature in the macroeconomic models regularly used for forecasting and monetary policy analysis and only recently has more emphasis been given to better developing the role of financial sectors in these models. This gap is of particular concern given the ongoing efforts to establish serious macro-prudential oversight and regulation to counter systemic risks. The aim of this special feature is to provide an overview of the recent upsurge in research papers trying to integrate more developed financial sectors in standard macroeconomic models and to compare this work with what is needed for the support of macro-prudential policies. One conclusion is that very significant further research efforts are needed, including attempts using modelling approaches that deviate from the currently dominating macroeconomic paradigm. It is of great importance that the academic and policy-oriented research communities join forces in working towards this objective. A host of new quantitative measures of systemic risk have recently been proposed in the academic and central banking literature. The stated purpose of these tools is to support macro-prudential oversight and inform policy decisions. This special feature surveys these measures, focusing primarily on the most recent developments that have not yet been covered in the ECB’s Financial Stability Review, and explains what can be learned from them. The strengths and weaknesses of approaches when applied in a macro-prudential context are discussed. Significant research in this area has addressed how to measure the systemic importance of specific financial intermediaries, for example by estimating the externalities they may exert on the financial system. With the rising number of different analytical measures and models it becomes increasingly important to prioritise between them and to construct a system of measures that, overall, covers all dimensions of systemic risk and how they relate to each other. Large and increasing investment exposures to government bonds have left insurers more vulnerable to changes in long-term risk-free interest rates and their levels. However, changes in risk-free interest rates affect both the asset and the liability side of insurers’ balance sheets. This box discusses the various ways in which interest rate levels and changes impact insurers, with the aim of shedding some light on whether low-risk free interest rates are good or bad for insurers. Investment risks are one of the most prominent risks that insurers and pensions funds are confronted with, and the analysis of insurers’ and pension funds’ financial asset positions is therefore an important element in financial stability analysis. From a broader financial stability perspective, it is also important to analyse the investment of insurers and pension funds, since portfolio reallocation of insurers, or the unwinding of positions, has the potential to affect financial stability by destabilising asset prices. In addition, the investment of insurers and pension funds create important financial links to, in particular, governments and banks. On twenty-one January, two thousand ten, the US Administration proposed a new set of broad regulatory initiatives for the banking sector. Among these, there was support for the proposal put forward by Paul Volcker, the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, which, in practice, recommends restrictions on banks’ business models. The so-called "Volcker rule" aims to prevent banks that have access to central bank and deposit insurance facilities from trading on their own account, as well as from owning and investing in hedge funds and private equity. In a way, the initiative brings back to the regulatory landscape a modified version of the Glass-Steagall restrictions on banks’ securities business.
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For nearly a decade, I owned and operated a restaurant. To give you some context, Eleven Madison is a very fancy restaurant on the corner of 24th and Madison. I mean, like, very fancy. We're talking servers like, crisp, ironed white tablecloths. More than 30 cooks in the kitchen. I think you get the gist. When I got there in 2006. But by the time I sold it it had been named the number one. Now, to be clear, our kitchen served unbelievably delicious. Our service was so gracious and as close to technically. And our dining room ... I mean, just Google a picture. It's one of the most beautiful out there. And it was because of those reasons of the 50 best restaurants in the world. But it was a hot dog that earned us. Or rather, the winning strategy unreasonable hospitality. The principle that guided us and turned them. In early 2010, on a busier-than-normal lunch service, I was in the dining room when I found myself clearing appetizers on vacation to New York. And they were going to the airport. I overheard them talking. "What an amazing trip. We've been to all the best restaurants." And they listed a bunch: Per Se, Le Bernardin, Daniel. Then another person jumped in: "Yeah, but the only thing we didn't get." You know those moments in a cartoon where the animated light bulb goes off signifying they're about to come up. If you’d been in the room you would have seen one appear over mine. As calmly as I possibly could, I walked gracefully back into the kitchen. And then literally ran out the front door. I bought a hotdog and ran. Now came the hard part: convincing the chef to serve it. Guys, he looked at me. Serving what New Yorkers call in a fancy four-star restaurant? But I asked him to trust me and I told him it was important to me. And eventually he agreed to cut. Adding a little swish of ketchup and finishing them with a quenelle. Then, before we served at the table, which happened to be a honey-lavender that had been dry aged for two weeks, utilizing a technique, we brought them their hot dog. I introduced it. "To make sure you don't go home a New York City hotdog." Guys, they freaked out. I'm not kidding. At that point in my career, I had served many thousands of dollars worth of food. And I can confidently say that no one better than they reacted to that hotdog. Each person said it was not only. But of their entire trip to New York, and they'd be telling the story. See, that hotdog changed the way from that point forward. Because up until then, on all the little details that I somehow hadn’t realized. That in restaurants, our reason for being. It's to make them feel welcome. It's to give them a sense of belonging. See, in restaurants, the food, they're simply ingredients. That is hospitality. And I realized, if we could be unreasonable we could give people. They would remember forever. It was only then that I realized I wasn't actually in the business. I was in the business I obsessed over that hot dog. I kept on going back to the experience and trying to figure out what happened. What happened so that it could happen so that it could start. First, being present. Which I get, it's like. But for me, being present means caring or the person you're with. That you stop caring about all. And it's essential in delivering. See, so often we have that we aren't able to slow down enough to actually listen to the things they're saying and all the things they're not saying. If I hadn't been present at that table, I never would have heard. Second, it required taking without taking yourself too seriously. Way too often in customer we let these self-imposed standards. The thing they actually want. OK, a hotdog in a four-star. But look at the way it made them feel. And third, it required the acknowledgment is. Give people a sense one size fits one. Hospitality is about making. And the best way to do that is not but as a unique individual. I really do believe I could have comped and given them a free bucket of caviar, and it would not have had the same impact. Because it would not have been. The hot dog had given us a new true north. And now we had a road map. I started talking about it constantly telling the team and encouraging them to go out to find opportunities of their own. And they were just as fired up as I was. And we got started right away. Every night, finding a few to deliver to our guests. We had unlocked something important. We knew it was working, but we wanted more of it. We wanted to give these kinds. We wanted to make it. And we recognized that we needed to invest in the resources to make that possible. So, we added a position to the team, someone whose only responsibility bring their ideas to life. We called the position the Dream Weaver, named after the iconic. You've heard it, I'll help you. It goes something like, Oh, sorry -- I just had to sing it because that song is actually it was playing the first time. It will now be stuck in your head. And with the addition of that position, we were on fire. Sincerely, a guest warned us in advance that his dad was more of a Budweiser than Sauternes and foie gras, so the Dream Weavers turned into a Budweiser cart, filled with every available at every bodega in the neighborhood. A couple came in to console themselves after their beach vacation. So at the end of their meal, we turned our private dining room with reclining folding chairs, and a kiddie pool filled with water while they drowned their sorrows with those little umbrellas. Or a family of four from Spain. They were in New York on vacation. And while they were eating, The kids were looking out our massive. It had started snowing and it was the first time. The Dream Weaver found a store that was open at eight o’clock. When they left the restaurant, there was a chauffeur-driven SUV for the most special nightcap: a few hours of play. With these gestures and so many more, our guests were obviously. But you know what? This is the cool part. Because for the first time, They were no longer just helping serving plates of food. They were coming up with their own ideas, and those ideas were affecting. They were empowered. But mostly, I mean, we were all just happy because we were making. There are few things more energizing on someone's face when they receive a gift that you are responsible for giving. It can become one of the most. And as we all found ourselves to going above and beyond for our guests, we found ourselves going above. Now I'm going to say this because I'm sure unreasonable hospitality is not just. I get it, some of the gestures were quite extravagant. We did hire people onto the team. But remember, that hotdog and the impact it had was priceless. It does not take a big budget to start because remember, it's not the cost. It's how it makes people feel. For most of America's history. Now we're a service economy. More than three quarters of our GDP. Globally, it's more than 65 percent. That means that whether or retail or construction or finance or insurance, you do the same thing. You’re in the business. And if you start to look closely enough, you will find opportunities to give people more all around you. Take real estate agents, for example. Every time I've bought, at best, the agent has left me as my thank you/congratulations gift. At worst, they've just thrown. Now, this is someone with whom looking together for my new home.
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For nearly a decade, I owned and operated a restaurant. To give you some context, Eleven Madison is a very fancy restaurant on the corner of twenty fourth and Madison. I mean, like, very fancy. We're talking servers like, crisp, ironed white tablecloths. More than thirty cooks in the kitchen. I think you get the gist. When I got there in two thousand six. But by the time I sold it it had been named the number one. Now, to be clear, our kitchen served unbelievably delicious. Our service was so gracious and as close to technically. And our dining room ... I mean, just Google a picture. It's one of the most beautiful out there. And it was because of those reasons of the fifty best restaurants in the world. But it was a hot dog that earned us. Or rather, the winning strategy unreasonable hospitality. The principle that guided us and turned them. In early two thousand ten, on a busier-than-normal lunch service, I was in the dining room when I found myself clearing appetizers on vacation to New York. And they were going to the airport. I overheard them talking. "What an amazing trip. We've been to all the best restaurants." And they listed a bunch: Per Se, Le Bernardin, Daniel. Then another person jumped in: "Yeah, but the only thing we didn't get." You know those moments in a cartoon where the animated light bulb goes off signifying they're about to come up. If you’d been in the room you would have seen one appear over mine. As calmly as I possibly could, I walked gracefully back into the kitchen. And then literally ran out the front door. I bought a hotdog and ran. Now came the hard part: convincing the chef to serve it. Guys, he looked at me. Serving what New Yorkers call in a fancy four-star restaurant? But I asked him to trust me and I told him it was important to me. And eventually he agreed to cut. Adding a little swish of ketchup and finishing them with a quenelle. Then, before we served at the table, which happened to be a honey-lavender that had been dry aged for two weeks, utilizing a technique, we brought them their hot dog. I introduced it. "To make sure you don't go home a New York City hotdog." Guys, they freaked out. I'm not kidding. At that point in my career, I had served many thousands of dollars worth of food. And I can confidently say that no one better than they reacted to that hotdog. Each person said it was not only. But of their entire trip to New York, and they'd be telling the story. See, that hotdog changed the way from that point forward. Because up until then, on all the little details that I somehow hadn’t realized. That in restaurants, our reason for being. It's to make them feel welcome. It's to give them a sense of belonging. See, in restaurants, the food, they're simply ingredients. That is hospitality. And I realized, if we could be unreasonable we could give people. They would remember forever. It was only then that I realized I wasn't actually in the business. I was in the business I obsessed over that hot dog. I kept on going back to the experience and trying to figure out what happened. What happened so that it could happen so that it could start. First, being present. Which I get, it's like. But for me, being present means caring or the person you're with. That you stop caring about all. And it's essential in delivering. See, so often we have that we aren't able to slow down enough to actually listen to the things they're saying and all the things they're not saying. If I hadn't been present at that table, I never would have heard. Second, it required taking without taking yourself too seriously. Way too often in customer we let these self-imposed standards. The thing they actually want. OK, a hotdog in a four-star. But look at the way it made them feel. And third, it required the acknowledgment is. Give people a sense one size fits one. Hospitality is about making. And the best way to do that is not but as a unique individual. I really do believe I could have comped and given them a free bucket of caviar, and it would not have had the same impact. Because it would not have been. The hot dog had given us a new true north. And now we had a road map. I started talking about it constantly telling the team and encouraging them to go out to find opportunities of their own. And they were just as fired up as I was. And we got started right away. Every night, finding a few to deliver to our guests. We had unlocked something important. We knew it was working, but we wanted more of it. We wanted to give these kinds. We wanted to make it. And we recognized that we needed to invest in the resources to make that possible. So, we added a position to the team, someone whose only responsibility bring their ideas to life. We called the position the Dream Weaver, named after the iconic. You've heard it, I'll help you. It goes something like, Oh, sorry -- I just had to sing it because that song is actually it was playing the first time. It will now be stuck in your head. And with the addition of that position, we were on fire. Sincerely, a guest warned us in advance that his dad was more of a Budweiser than Sauternes and foie gras, so the Dream Weavers turned into a Budweiser cart, filled with every available at every bodega in the neighborhood. A couple came in to console themselves after their beach vacation. So at the end of their meal, we turned our private dining room with reclining folding chairs, and a kiddie pool filled with water while they drowned their sorrows with those little umbrellas. Or a family of four from Spain. They were in New York on vacation. And while they were eating, The kids were looking out our massive. It had started snowing and it was the first time. The Dream Weaver found a store that was open at eight o’clock. When they left the restaurant, there was a chauffeur-driven SUV for the most special nightcap: a few hours of play. With these gestures and so many more, our guests were obviously. But you know what? This is the cool part. Because for the first time, They were no longer just helping serving plates of food. They were coming up with their own ideas, and those ideas were affecting. They were empowered. But mostly, I mean, we were all just happy because we were making. There are few things more energizing on someone's face when they receive a gift that you are responsible for giving. It can become one of the most. And as we all found ourselves to going above and beyond for our guests, we found ourselves going above. Now I'm going to say this because I'm sure unreasonable hospitality is not just. I get it, some of the gestures were quite extravagant. We did hire people onto the team. But remember, that hotdog and the impact it had was priceless. It does not take a big budget to start because remember, it's not the cost. It's how it makes people feel. For most of America's history. Now we're a service economy. More than three quarters of our GDP. Globally, it's more than sixty-five percent. That means that whether or retail or construction or finance or insurance, you do the same thing. You’re in the business. And if you start to look closely enough, you will find opportunities to give people more all around you. Take real estate agents, for example. Every time I've bought, at best, the agent has left me as my thank you/congratulations gift. At worst, they've just thrown. Now, this is someone with whom looking together for my new home.
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OK, I would like to introduce all of you to my favorite animal in the world. This is the Peter Pan. It's an axolotl. It's a type of salamander, but it never fully grows up like other salamanders do. And this little guy has. So if it loses any limb, it can just completely regenerate. It's amazing. And, I mean, look at it -- it's framed by feathery gills. It's just ... how could you not love that? This particular type of axolotl, is known as an achoque. It is equally as cute, and it lives in just one place. It's called Lake Pátzcuaro, and as you can see, it is stunningly beautiful. But unfortunately, it's been so overfished that the achoque is dying out altogether. And this is something that's a scenario. We're living through an extinction crisis, and species are particularly vulnerable to just one little niche. But this is TED, right? So this is where I give you. So how do you save one special? Well, the answer, at least my answer, isn't a grand technological intervention. It's actually really simple. It's that you find people and you ask them and you listen to them and you work with them. So I want to tell you about. And in conservation in particular, if scientists don't team up who have really valuable knowledge but a practical wisdom that's not going they can really miss the point. Scientists and science as an enterprise if it rushes in knowing. But when scientists shake off and really look to people but really important perspective it can genuinely save the world, one wonderfully weird amphibian at a time. So, in the case of the achoque, these are the people. These are the Sisters. They are nuns who have a convent and they have a shared history. And it is so mind-bogglingly wonderful that it drew me all the way there and I even have the unflattering selfie to prove it. There is a room at the center that looks like this. It's very strange. It's lined with all these tanks and hundreds of achoques. And that's because this creature, it's believed has healing powers. So the sisters actually make and sell. I bought a bottle of it. So this is it. It tastes a bit like honey, but the sisters reckon it is good for all kinds of particularly. So I just want you to have a listen. Sister Ofelia: Here in Pátzcuaro in 1747. Sometime after that, our sisters started to make. We didn't discover. That was the original people. But we then started to make. The locals knew that, and they came to offer us the animals. Victoria Gill: I see. So the achoques are. What does the syrup treat? SO: Bronchitis, the lungs and back pain. VG: And so you've in a syrup, in a medicine. Can you tell me how it's made? You're shaking your head. VG: Yeah, they're not up for sharing. But the decline in the achoque actually nearly put a halt, which is why the sisters started this. It's the world's first achoque farm. All they wanted was a healthy, so that they could continue. But what they created at the same time was a captive breeding program. And fast forward a few years, and these scientists from Chester Zoo not far from where I live, and from Michoacana University have persuaded the sisters -- to join them in a research partnership. So the nuns show the biologists how you rear perfectly healthy. And the scientists have put into tanks, filters and pumps in this strange, incongruous. This is the kind of partnership. But I don't think I see. And I have been ludicrously. I've traveled to loads of places. Brilliant people who are trying and solve problems. I've hung out with scientists of the origin of the menopause off the north Pacific coast. And I've followed around scientists who've planted cameras because they were looking to capture as it happens. But it's this team that really showed me the impact that these delicate but really. And I think the reason is because it's not common. And one of the reasons it's not common is because our traditional approach of the hierarchical system doesn't exactly encourage where scientists will look and really ask for their input. In fact, I think we have especially in the West, of a kind of academically blinkered hubris that has kept science historically. And I think although that's moved on, it continues to be. So here's my example from history and my takedown of a scientific hero. Sir Ernest Shackleton and his Trans-Antarctic Expedition, the celebrated ill-fated adventure. On his way there, Shackleton just didn't listen. They knew that region, and they told him. It's too widespread, it's too far north. And look what happened. I mean, granted, that great adventure, that story of heroic leadership where he saved we wouldn't be telling that story and taken their advice. But it cost him his ship. I would imagine quite a lot. A good few cases of PTSD and Mrs. Chippy, because the team couldn't afford. Now, that was all a very long time ago, but as I've prepared for this talk, I've revisited some of the stories where these really unusual collaborations. So I spoke to former poachers whose knowledge of where is now really important in those same places. And I spoke to an amazing artist whose own experience has actually paved the way for him a new, really innovative and beautiful. Most recently, I worked here, with a team of scientists. One of their experiments has now turned into this. It's Chernobyl's first vodka. It's pretty good, too! I've tasted it. And this is actually, it's set to be the first consumer product since the nuclear accident. And that's actually the result with local communities who still live and want to know when they can -- and build businesses and rebuild. This was a product of humility, of listening, and I saw that in spades. So I watched as a decades-experienced called Gerardo Garcia listened and watched super carefully as a nun in a full habit showed him how, if you tap it'll open its mouth so you can quickly. When scientists team up with, who have a really valuable perspective but a totally different outlook, something really special can happen. Now, there is a truly global called the International Panel. Now, that is not a snappy title. This organization includes and it's aiming to do nothing less across our entire planet. So it recently published on the state of nature, and that could be the foundation where all of those nations could sign up to tackle the biodiversity crisis right now. Now, I know from trying to communicate on assessments like this that these big international groups as to be kind of. But there's a group of human beings, the report's authors, who have this formidable task. All of that biological that paints a clear and accurate picture of the state of the natural world. And 10 years before this panel to put that assessment together, they created what's called. This is essentially for all of the different ways. So it formally recognizes, for example, that "Mother Earth" and "nature." And what that means is that can be brought into the same document and given the weight in that assessment of what state. And that is absolutely critical, because an Inuit hunter might never. But I'll bet you she knows more about because of climate change than a scientist who spent many years taking measurements. And collectively, Indigenous people of an estimated 25 percent including some of the most biodiverse. So imagine how much we're missing if we don't cross or at least try to, when we're trying to figure out and how to protect it. Every single research proposal. So what if, every time it had to include a suggestion local farmers, Indigenous that researchers wanted invite into their team and listen to? I just want to let of why she is so particularly to the survival of the achoque. VG: Sister Ofelia, do you think is that part of your work for God? SO: Of every human being not to harm those who live around us. That's all living things. We're all created not only just to survive. All of us here are providing happiness and we're also making Him happy. VG: I feel like I should sort of slink off because it sounds so lovely. But did you hear that? "We're providing happiness." Now, that's not a protocol in any formal research project proposal -- but it's the impetus behind what's become in the world of an animal that was on the very. And isn't that just wonderful? Thank you.
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OK, I would like to introduce all of you to my favorite animal in the world. This is the Peter Pan. It's an axolotl. It's a type of salamander, but it never fully grows up like other salamanders do. And this little guy has. So if it loses any limb, it can just completely regenerate. It's amazing. And, I mean, look at it -- it's framed by feathery gills. It's just ... how could you not love that? This particular type of axolotl, is known as an achoque. It is equally as cute, and it lives in just one place. It's called Lake Pátzcuaro, and as you can see, it is stunningly beautiful. But unfortunately, it's been so overfished that the achoque is dying out altogether. And this is something that's a scenario. We're living through an extinction crisis, and species are particularly vulnerable to just one little niche. But this is TED, right? So this is where I give you. So how do you save one special? Well, the answer, at least my answer, isn't a grand technological intervention. It's actually really simple. It's that you find people and you ask them and you listen to them and you work with them. So I want to tell you about. And in conservation in particular, if scientists don't team up who have really valuable knowledge but a practical wisdom that's not going they can really miss the point. Scientists and science as an enterprise if it rushes in knowing. But when scientists shake off and really look to people but really important perspective it can genuinely save the world, one wonderfully weird amphibian at a time. So, in the case of the achoque, these are the people. These are the Sisters. They are nuns who have a convent and they have a shared history. And it is so mind-bogglingly wonderful that it drew me all the way there and I even have the unflattering selfie to prove it. There is a room at the center that looks like this. It's very strange. It's lined with all these tanks and hundreds of achoques. And that's because this creature, it's believed has healing powers. So the sisters actually make and sell. I bought a bottle of it. So this is it. It tastes a bit like honey, but the sisters reckon it is good for all kinds of particularly. So I just want you to have a listen. Sister Ofelia: Here in Pátzcuaro in one thousand seven hundred forty-seven. Sometime after that, our sisters started to make. We didn't discover. That was the original people. But we then started to make. The locals knew that, and they came to offer us the animals. Victoria Gill: I see. So the achoques are. What does the syrup treat? SO: Bronchitis, the lungs and back pain. VG: And so you've in a syrup, in a medicine. Can you tell me how it's made? You're shaking your head. VG: Yeah, they're not up for sharing. But the decline in the achoque actually nearly put a halt, which is why the sisters started this. It's the world's first achoque farm. All they wanted was a healthy, so that they could continue. But what they created at the same time was a captive breeding program. And fast forward a few years, and these scientists from Chester Zoo not far from where I live, and from Michoacana University have persuaded the sisters -- to join them in a research partnership. So the nuns show the biologists how you rear perfectly healthy. And the scientists have put into tanks, filters and pumps in this strange, incongruous. This is the kind of partnership. But I don't think I see. And I have been ludicrously. I've traveled to loads of places. Brilliant people who are trying and solve problems. I've hung out with scientists of the origin of the menopause off the north Pacific coast. And I've followed around scientists who've planted cameras because they were looking to capture as it happens. But it's this team that really showed me the impact that these delicate but really. And I think the reason is because it's not common. And one of the reasons it's not common is because our traditional approach of the hierarchical system doesn't exactly encourage where scientists will look and really ask for their input. In fact, I think we have especially in the West, of a kind of academically blinkered hubris that has kept science historically. And I think although that's moved on, it continues to be. So here's my example from history and my takedown of a scientific hero. Sir Ernest Shackleton and his Trans-Antarctic Expedition, the celebrated ill-fated adventure. On his way there, Shackleton just didn't listen. They knew that region, and they told him. It's too widespread, it's too far north. And look what happened. I mean, granted, that great adventure, that story of heroic leadership where he saved we wouldn't be telling that story and taken their advice. But it cost him his ship. I would imagine quite a lot. A good few cases of PTSD and Mrs. Chippy, because the team couldn't afford. Now, that was all a very long time ago, but as I've prepared for this talk, I've revisited some of the stories where these really unusual collaborations. So I spoke to former poachers whose knowledge of where is now really important in those same places. And I spoke to an amazing artist whose own experience has actually paved the way for him a new, really innovative and beautiful. Most recently, I worked here, with a team of scientists. One of their experiments has now turned into this. It's Chernobyl's first vodka. It's pretty good, too! I've tasted it. And this is actually, it's set to be the first consumer product since the nuclear accident. And that's actually the result with local communities who still live and want to know when they can -- and build businesses and rebuild. This was a product of humility, of listening, and I saw that in spades. So I watched as a decades-experienced called Gerardo Garcia listened and watched super carefully as a nun in a full habit showed him how, if you tap it'll open its mouth so you can quickly. When scientists team up with, who have a really valuable perspective but a totally different outlook, something really special can happen. Now, there is a truly global called the International Panel. Now, that is not a snappy title. This organization includes and it's aiming to do nothing less across our entire planet. So it recently published on the state of nature, and that could be the foundation where all of those nations could sign up to tackle the biodiversity crisis right now. Now, I know from trying to communicate on assessments like this that these big international groups as to be kind of. But there's a group of human beings, the report's authors, who have this formidable task. All of that biological that paints a clear and accurate picture of the state of the natural world. And ten years before this panel to put that assessment together, they created what's called. This is essentially for all of the different ways. So it formally recognizes, for example, that "Mother Earth" and "nature." And what that means is that can be brought into the same document and given the weight in that assessment of what state. And that is absolutely critical, because an Inuit hunter might never. But I'll bet you she knows more about because of climate change than a scientist who spent many years taking measurements. And collectively, Indigenous people of an estimated twenty-five percent including some of the most biodiverse. So imagine how much we're missing if we don't cross or at least try to, when we're trying to figure out and how to protect it. Every single research proposal. So what if, every time it had to include a suggestion local farmers, Indigenous that researchers wanted invite into their team and listen to? I just want to let of why she is so particularly to the survival of the achoque. VG: Sister Ofelia, do you think is that part of your work for God? SO: Of every human being not to harm those who live around us. That's all living things. We're all created not only just to survive. All of us here are providing happiness and we're also making Him happy. VG: I feel like I should sort of slink off because it sounds so lovely. But did you hear that? "We're providing happiness." Now, that's not a protocol in any formal research project proposal -- but it's the impetus behind what's become in the world of an animal that was on the very. And isn't that just wonderful? Thank you.
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Hence, any fall in long-term interest rates may lead to a significant funding gap in balance sheets, given the typically longer average duration of liabilities than of assets. This Box discusses some of the financial stability issues raised by the impact of the low level of long-term interest rates on life insurers’ and pension funds’ balance sheets. As the so-called baby boom generations – i.e. those born between the mid-1940s and the mid1960s – approach retirement, policymakers in many developed countries have become increasingly concerned about retirement funding and retirement income security. With ongoing pension reforms reducing the generosity of funding from public sources, more emphasis is being placed on private saving. However, the inherent uncertainty about the length of human life complicates any decision regarding saving for retirement. In particular, there is a risk that individuals may outlive their resources and could be forced to reduce their living standards quite substantially when they reach a more advanced age, or even risk falling into a poverty trap. Longevity risk, which materialises when expectations regarding lifespan are not met, has two components.
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Hence, any fall in long-term interest rates may lead to a significant funding gap in balance sheets, given the typically longer average duration of liabilities than of assets. This Box discusses some of the financial stability issues raised by the impact of the low level of long-term interest rates on life insurers’ and pension funds’ balance sheets. As the so-called baby boom generations – i.e. those born between the mid nineteen forties and the mid nineteen sixties – approach retirement, policymakers in many developed countries have become increasingly concerned about retirement funding and retirement income security. With ongoing pension reforms reducing the generosity of funding from public sources, more emphasis is being placed on private saving. However, the inherent uncertainty about the length of human life complicates any decision regarding saving for retirement. In particular, there is a risk that individuals may outlive their resources and could be forced to reduce their living standards quite substantially when they reach a more advanced age, or even risk falling into a poverty trap. Longevity risk, which materialises when expectations regarding lifespan are not met, has two components.
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Deloitte Insights and the research centers deliver proprietary research designed to help organizations turn their aspirations into action. From data visualizations to expert commentary, the video content delivers concise, actionable information to help you lead with clarity in a complex world. Ira Kalish is the chief global economist of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd. He is a specialist in global economic issues and the effects of economic, demographic, and social trends on the global business environment. In August, only 22,000 new jobs were created from the previous month. The June and July numbers were revised, with the new data showing a decline in employment in June but somewhat faster employment growth for July than previously reported. In August, job growth was either feeble or negative in most industries. The major exceptions were health care and social assistance (up 46,800), and leisure and hospitality (up 28,000). When these two categories are excluded, the numbers show that there was a sharp decline in employment in August. By industry, employment was down 7,000 in construction, down 12,000 in manufacturing, down 5,000 in information, down 3,000 in financial services, down 17,000 in professional and business services, and down 16,000 in government. The establishment survey also provides data on earnings. In August, average hourly earnings of private sector workers were up 3.7% from a year earlier—the second lowest rate of increase since May 2021. Wage pressure is gradually easing, given the weak demand for labor. Fortuitously for workers, earnings are rising faster than inflation, thereby boosting household purchasing power. Even as demand for labor decelerates, the supply of labor is falling, in part due to restrictive immigration policy. If inflation accelerates sharply due to tariffs, it will undermine consumer purchasing power. The household survey found that the labor force grew faster than the working-age population, leading to a small increase in the rate of participation. Yet employment grew considerably more slowly than the labor force, thereby leading to a slight increase in the unemployment rate. It hit 4.3%—the highest since October 2021. There was a sharp increase in the unemployment rate for workers lacking a high school education but no change for college graduates. Unskilled workers are facing obstacles to employment. In response to the jobs report, the yield on the US Treasury’s 10-year bond fell to 4.1%—the lowest in 10 months. This reflects expectations that the economy is weakening, thereby reducing inflationary pressures and increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy. Equity prices fell as well. The futures markets are now pricing an 89% probability that the Fed will cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points this month and a 10% chance of a 50-point cut this month. Moreover, there is a 91% probability that the Fed will cut the rate two or three times before the end of the year, and a zero likelihood of no rates cuts by December. This includes a 64% probability of three rate cuts by the end of the year. Many investors are now highly optimistic that the Fed may engage in an aggressively easy monetary policy. The job openings rate was highest in information, accommodation and food service, and professional business services. The rate was lowest in mining, wholesale trade, and durables manufacturing. From a year ago, the overall job openings rate fell from 4.5% to 4.3%. However, in some industries, there was a notable increase in the job openings rate. These industries included construction, transportation and warehousing, information, and accommodation and food service. Some of these industries are heavily dependent on migrant labor. The drop in immigration and the increase in deportations might explain some of this increase. It could also lead to stronger wage pressure in these industries, thereby exacerbating inflation. On the other hand, some industries saw a sharp decline in the job openings rate. These included mining, durable goods manufacturing, and health care and social assistance. The decline for manufacturing could be related to trade uncertainty and disruption. The state of the US job market has weakened. Still, the job openings rate is relatively high while the unemployment rate is relatively low. Thus, it is not clear if the weakness is sufficient to cause concern about the economy being sufficiently weak to warrant an easing of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to seek low inflation and maximum employment. Currently, inflation is above the Fed’s target and appears to be accelerating while employment growth has eased. Thus, the Fed faces a trade-off. Meanwhile, one sign of economic strength is that financial market conditions in the United States are relatively favorable. This is evidenced by the national financial conditions index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. That index shows that, currently, the United States has the most favorable financial market conditions since November 2021, during the pandemic. This is due to the lagged effect of the Fed’s easy monetary policy, which began in 2024. Given that conditions are so favorable, it is not clear that it makes sense to ease policy further at a time when inflation is a growing concern. Prior to the pandemic, the index was even more favorable in the 2018-to-2020 time frame. Yet that was a time of historically low inflation. As such, there was no need to tighten monetary policy at that time. On the other hand, household financial conditions have worsened, with the delinquency rate on credit card debt now at the highest level since just after the global financial crisis in 2011. The delinquency rate on automotive loans has also increased considerably. Plus, the end of the moratorium on student debt has led to a further increase in financial stress for student debtors. The challenges faced by the household sector provide an argument in favor of monetary easing. It is nearly a certainty that the Fed will cut the benchmark interest rate later this month, likely starting a gradual process of easing monetary policy. This could come in conjunction with a further acceleration in inflation. That would be an unusual combination of events. This means that the absorption of the tariffs is mostly taking place on the US side of the Pacific Ocean.
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Deloitte Insights and the research centers deliver proprietary research designed to help organizations turn their aspirations into action. From data visualizations to expert commentary, the video content delivers concise, actionable information to help you lead with clarity in a complex world. Ira Kalish is the chief global economist of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd. He is a specialist in global economic issues and the effects of economic, demographic, and social trends on the global business environment. In August, only twenty two thousand new jobs were created from the previous month. The June and July numbers were revised, with the new data showing a decline in employment in June but somewhat faster employment growth for July than previously reported. In August, job growth was either feeble or negative in most industries. The major exceptions were health care and social assistance (up forty six thousand eight hundred), and leisure and hospitality (up twenty eight thousand). When these two categories are excluded, the numbers show that there was a sharp decline in employment in August. By industry, employment was down seven thousand in construction, down twelve thousand in manufacturing, down five thousand in information, down three thousand in financial services, down seventeen thousand in professional and business services, and down sixteen thousand in government. The establishment survey also provides data on earnings. In August, average hourly earnings of private sector workers were up three point seven percent from a year earlier—the second lowest rate of increase since May two thousand twenty one. Wage pressure is gradually easing, given the weak demand for labor. Fortuitously for workers, earnings are rising faster than inflation, thereby boosting household purchasing power. Even as demand for labor decelerates, the supply of labor is falling, in part due to restrictive immigration policy. If inflation accelerates sharply due to tariffs, it will undermine consumer purchasing power. The household survey found that the labor force grew faster than the working-age population, leading to a small increase in the rate of participation. Yet employment grew considerably more slowly than the labor force, thereby leading to a slight increase in the unemployment rate. It hit four point three percent—the highest since October two thousand twenty-one. There was a sharp increase in the unemployment rate for workers lacking a high school education but no change for college graduates. Unskilled workers are facing obstacles to employment. In response to the jobs report, the yield on the US Treasury’s ten-year bond fell to four point one percent—the lowest in ten months. This reflects expectations that the economy is weakening, thereby reducing inflationary pressures and increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy. Equity prices fell as well. The futures markets are now pricing an eighty-nine percent probability that the Fed will cut the benchmark rate by twenty-five basis points this month and a ten percent chance of a fifty-point cut this month. Moreover, there is a ninety-one percent probability that the Fed will cut the rate two or three times before the end of the year, and a zero likelihood of no rates cuts by December. This includes a sixty-four percent probability of three rate cuts by the end of the year. Many investors are now highly optimistic that the Fed may engage in an aggressively easy monetary policy. The job openings rate was highest in information, accommodation and food service, and professional business services. The rate was lowest in mining, wholesale trade, and durables manufacturing. From a year ago, the overall job openings rate fell from four point five percent to four point three percent. However, in some industries, there was a notable increase in the job openings rate. These industries included construction, transportation and warehousing, information, and accommodation and food service. Some of these industries are heavily dependent on migrant labor. The drop in immigration and the increase in deportations might explain some of this increase. It could also lead to stronger wage pressure in these industries, thereby exacerbating inflation. On the other hand, some industries saw a sharp decline in the job openings rate. These included mining, durable goods manufacturing, and health care and social assistance. The decline for manufacturing could be related to trade uncertainty and disruption. The state of the US job market has weakened. Still, the job openings rate is relatively high while the unemployment rate is relatively low. Thus, it is not clear if the weakness is sufficient to cause concern about the economy being sufficiently weak to warrant an easing of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to seek low inflation and maximum employment. Currently, inflation is above the Fed’s target and appears to be accelerating while employment growth has eased. Thus, the Fed faces a trade-off. Meanwhile, one sign of economic strength is that financial market conditions in the United States are relatively favorable. This is evidenced by the national financial conditions index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. That index shows that, currently, the United States has the most favorable financial market conditions since November two thousand twenty-one, during the pandemic. This is due to the lagged effect of the Fed’s easy monetary policy, which began in two thousand twenty-four. Given that conditions are so favorable, it is not clear that it makes sense to ease policy further at a time when inflation is a growing concern. Prior to the pandemic, the index was even more favorable in the two thousand eighteen-to-two thousand twenty time frame. Yet that was a time of historically low inflation. As such, there was no need to tighten monetary policy at that time. On the other hand, household financial conditions have worsened, with the delinquency rate on credit card debt now at the highest level since just after the global financial crisis in two thousand eleven. Plus, the end of the moratorium on student debt has led to a further increase in financial stress for student debtors. The challenges faced by the household sector provide an argument in favor of monetary easing. It is nearly a certainty that the Fed will cut the benchmark interest rate later this month, likely starting a gradual process of easing monetary policy. This could come in conjunction with a further acceleration in inflation. That would be an unusual combination of events. This means that the absorption of the tariffs is mostly taking place on the US side of the Pacific Ocean.
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long_en_73
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| 913 |
en
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Arrangements involving other authorities, such as other sectoral financial supervisors or deposit-insurance schemes, are not dealt with in this Special Feature. In the three years prior to the end of 2005, net inflows into the hedge fund sector were particularly strong, averaging USD 20 billion per quarter. However, net outflows in the last quarter of 2005 warned many hedge fund managers of the possibility of higher withdrawals in the future. This also raised questions about the factors that drive money flows into the hedge fund industry. It has frequently been suggested that the main drivers of inflows were the global search for yield, against a background of persistently low interest rates globally, coupled with high risk appetite among investors. This Box tests this hypothesis by discussing the funding liquidity risks faced by hedge fund managers and by analysing the determinants of aggregate money flows into single-manager hedge funds. The risk-neutral density (RND) extracted from financial options prices facilitates direct insights into the entire distribution of market expectations regarding the future price of an underlying asset at a given point in time. In the monitoring of the euro area insurance and banking sector, high-frequency indicators can be useful as part of the ongoing assessment of perceived risks. This Box aims at analysing two indicators that can be extracted from options market prices and which provide information on the degree of asymmetry and the fatness of the tails of the RND. These indicators are commonly known as risk-reversals and strangles respectively in foreign exchange markets. The reinsurance sector contributes positively to financial stability by providing a safety net for the primary insurance industry. Reinsurance companies typically absorb the most volatile part of the risk corresponding to peak exposures (i.e. the risk of substantial losses arising from events occurring with a low probability) which primary insurers are not willing to keep in their balance sheets. By pooling insurance risk, reinsurance firms can achieve superior risk diversification, both in term of business lines and geographically and after a catastrophe event, they tend to be able to endure losses transferred by the primary sector. As a result, risks and capital in the insurance industry tend to be better managed, making the primary insurance sector more resilient when it takes out reinsurance. Furthermore, despite their central role in the worldwide insurance markets as "insurers of last resort" and their very high business concentration, reinsurance undertakings are often not perceived as being a source of systemic risk. The low potential of financial market disruption and the limited counterparty risks for banks on the credit derivatives markets support the view that reinsurance undertakings are not systemic core institutions. This Box aims at questioning this view by analysing some of the ways in which the reinsurance sector may constitute a vulnerability or weak-spot for the stability of the financial system. In particular, it examines how the likely widespread inclusion of rating triggers in reinsurance contracts in the run-up to implementation of Solvency II may increase the vulnerability of reinsurers to liquidity risk in the same way as runs can take place on banks. The size and complexity of several euro area financial institutions make it difficult for supervisors and analysts to make an accurate assessment of individual institution risk. At the macro-prudential level, this presents a challenge in determining forward-looking risks to financial stability that originate from the banking sector. Public accounting information can be used for these purposes, but its value tends to be limited by reporting lags and the backwardlooking nature of the data. The third pillar of the Basel II accord clearly recognises the positive role that market discipline can play in reducing the risks to financial stability. Against this background, the prices of securities when issued on the primary market may also influence bank management. There are also advantages in using secondary market information in addition to accounting information, due to the ability of markets to process a large amount of information rapidly and to reflect this information in securities prices under normal market conditions. Subordinated debt holders might exercise more discipline than depositors or equity holders because depositors may be covered by deposit insurance, whereas equity investors may benefit from the bank taking on more risk under certain conditions. Monitoring the subordinated debt market segment therefore adds to the set of indicators on banking system stability that are capable of conveying information on future systemic risks. This is because wide spreads may indicate concerns of increasing risk. This Box provides a brief overview of the structure of the euro area bank subordinated debt market, comparing the euro area banking sector to other major economies, and it briefly analyses some data on individual issues by euro area banks. One way of gauging information about the robustness of the financial system on a continuous basis is to analyse developments in bank stock prices. From a financial stability viewpoint, knowledge of how the market behaves under extreme conditions is central. As such, it is important to take into account the well-established fact that stock returns often exhibit both excess kurtosis and skewness, which also tend to depend on actual market conditions. The degree of non-normality in stock returns may also be related to firm size. By using data on individual bank stocks included in the Dow Jones EURO STOXX banking sector index, this Box investigates the downside risks associated with euro area banks from an institution-size perspective.
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Arrangements involving other authorities, such as other sectoral financial supervisors or deposit-insurance schemes, are not dealt with in this Special Feature. In the three years prior to the end of two thousand five, net inflows into the hedge fund sector were particularly strong, averaging USD twenty billion per quarter. However, net outflows in the last quarter of two thousand five warned many hedge fund managers of the possibility of higher withdrawals in the future. This also raised questions about the factors that drive money flows into the hedge fund industry. It has frequently been suggested that the main drivers of inflows were the global search for yield, against a background of persistently low interest rates globally, coupled with high risk appetite among investors. This Box tests this hypothesis by discussing the funding liquidity risks faced by hedge fund managers and by analysing the determinants of aggregate money flows into single-manager hedge funds. The risk-neutral density (RND) extracted from financial options prices facilitates direct insights into the entire distribution of market expectations regarding the future price of an underlying asset at a given point in time. In the monitoring of the euro area insurance and banking sector, high-frequency indicators can be useful as part of the ongoing assessment of perceived risks. This Box aims at analysing two indicators that can be extracted from options market prices and which provide information on the degree of asymmetry and the fatness of the tails of the RND. These indicators are commonly known as risk-reversals and strangles respectively in foreign exchange markets. The reinsurance sector contributes positively to financial stability by providing a safety net for the primary insurance industry. Reinsurance companies typically absorb the most volatile part of the risk corresponding to peak exposures (i.e. the risk of substantial losses arising from events occurring with a low probability) which primary insurers are not willing to keep in their balance sheets. By pooling insurance risk, reinsurance firms can achieve superior risk diversification, both in term of business lines and geographically and after a catastrophe event, they tend to be able to endure losses transferred by the primary sector. As a result, risks and capital in the insurance industry tend to be better managed, making the primary insurance sector more resilient when it takes out reinsurance. Furthermore, despite their central role in the worldwide insurance markets as "insurers of last resort" and their very high business concentration, reinsurance undertakings are often not perceived as being a source of systemic risk. The low potential of financial market disruption and the limited counterparty risks for banks on the credit derivatives markets support the view that reinsurance undertakings are not systemic core institutions. This Box aims at questioning this view by analysing some of the ways in which the reinsurance sector may constitute a vulnerability or weak-spot for the stability of the financial system. In particular, it examines how the likely widespread inclusion of rating triggers in reinsurance contracts in the run-up to implementation of Solvency two may increase the vulnerability of reinsurers to liquidity risk in the same way as runs can take place on banks. The size and complexity of several euro area financial institutions make it difficult for supervisors and analysts to make an accurate assessment of individual institution risk. At the macro-prudential level, this presents a challenge in determining forward-looking risks to financial stability that originate from the banking sector. Public accounting information can be used for these purposes, but its value tends to be limited by reporting lags and the backwardlooking nature of the data. The third pillar of the Basel two accord clearly recognises the positive role that market discipline can play in reducing the risks to financial stability. Against this background, the prices of securities when issued on the primary market may also influence bank management. There are also advantages in using secondary market information in addition to accounting information, due to the ability of markets to process a large amount of information rapidly and to reflect this information in securities prices under normal market conditions. Subordinated debt holders might exercise more discipline than depositors or equity holders because depositors may be covered by deposit insurance, whereas equity investors may benefit from the bank taking on more risk under certain conditions. Monitoring the subordinated debt market segment therefore adds to the set of indicators on banking system stability that are capable of conveying information on future systemic risks. This is because wide spreads may indicate concerns of increasing risk. This Box provides a brief overview of the structure of the euro area bank subordinated debt market, comparing the euro area banking sector to other major economies, and it briefly analyses some data on individual issues by euro area banks. one way of gauging information about the robustness of the financial system on a continuous basis is to analyse developments in bank stock prices. From a financial stability viewpoint, knowledge of how the market behaves under extreme conditions is central. As such, it is important to take into account the well-established fact that stock returns often exhibit both excess kurtosis and skewness, which also tend to depend on actual market conditions. The degree of non-normality in stock returns may also be related to firm size. By using data on individual bank stocks included in the Dow Jones EURO STOXX banking sector index, this Box investigates the downside risks associated with euro area banks from an institution-size perspective.
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| 1,515 |
en
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I'm a contemporary artist with a bit of an unexpected background. I was in my 20s before I ever went to an art museum. I grew up in the middle of nowhere on a dirt road in rural Arkansas, an hour from the nearest movie theater. And I think it was a great place to grow up as an artist. Because I grew up around quirky, colorful characters who were great at making with their hands. And my childhood is more hick than I could ever possibly relate to you. And also more intellectual than you would ever expect. For instance, me and my sister, when we were little, we would compete to see who could eat the most squirrel brains. But on the other side of that, though, we were big readers in our house. And if the TV was on, we were watching a documentary. And my dad is the most voracious reader I know. He can read a novel or two a day. But when I was little, I remember, he would kill flies in our house with my BB gun. And what was so amazing to me about that -- Well he would be in his recliner, would holler for me to fetch the BB gun, and I'd go get it. And what was amazing to me -- well it was pretty kickass; he was killing a fly in the house with a gun -- but what was so amazing to me was that he knew just enough how to pump it. And he could shoot it from two rooms away. Because he knew how to pump it just enough to kill the fly and not damage what it landed on. So I should talk about art. Or we'll be here all day with my childhood stories. I love contemporary art, but I'm often really frustrated with the contemporary art world and the contemporary art scene. A few years ago, I spent months in Europe to see the major international art exhibitions that have the pulse of what is supposed to be going on in the art world. And I was struck by going to so many, one after the other, with some clarity of what it was that I was longing for. And I was longing for several things that I wasn't getting, or not getting enough of. But two of the main things: one of it, I was longing for more work that was appealing to a broad public. That was accessible. And the second thing that I was longing for was some more exquisite craftsmanship and technique. So I started thinking and listing what all it was that I thought would make a perfect biennial. So I decided, I'm going to start my own biennial. I'm going to organize it and direct it. And get it going in the world. So I thought, okay, I have to have some criteria of how to choose work. So amongst all the criteria I have, there's two main things. One of them, I call my Mimaw's Test. And what that is is I imagine explaining a work of art to my grandmother in five minutes. And if I can't explain it in five minutes, then it's too obtuse or esoteric and it hasn't been refined enough yet. It needs to worked on until it can speak fluently. And then my other second set of rules -- I hate to say "rules" because it's art -- my criteria would be the three H's. Which is head, heart and hands. And great art would have "head": it would have interesting intellectual ideas and concepts. It would have "heart" in that it would have passion and heart and soul. And it would have "hand" in that it would be greatly crafted. So I started thinking about how am I going to do this biennial, how am I going to travel the world and find these artists? And then I realized one day, there's an easier solution to this. I'm just going to make the whole thing myself. And so this is what I did. So I thought, a biennial needs artists. I'm going to do an international biennial; I need artists from all around the world. So what I did was I invented a hundred artists from around the world. I figured out their bios, their passions in life and their art styles, and I started making their work. I felt, oh this is the kind of project that I could spend my whole life doing. So I decided, I'm going to make this a real biennial. It's going to be two years of studio work. And I'm going to create this in two years, and I have. So I should start to talk about these guys. Well the range is quite a bit. And I'm such a technician, so I loved this project, getting to play with all the techniques. So for example, in realist paintings, it ranges from this, which is kind of old masters style, to really realistic still-life, to this type of painting where I'm painting with a single hair. And then at the other end, there's performance and short films. And indoor installations like this indoor installation and this one. And outdoor installations like this one and this one. I know I should mention: I'm making all these things. This isn't Photoshopped. I'm under the river with those fish. So now let me introduce some of my fictional artists to you. This is Nell Remmel. Nell is interested in agricultural processes, and her work is based in these practices. This piece, which is called "Flipped Earth" -- She was interested in taking the sky and using it to cleanse barren ground. And by taking giant mirrors -- and here she's taking giant mirrors and pulling them into the dirt. And this is 22 feet long. And what I loved about her work is, when I would walk around it and look down into the sky, looking down to watch the sky, and it unfolded in a new way. And probably the best part of this piece is at dusk and dawn when the twilight wedge has fallen and the ground's dark, but there's still the light above, bright above. And so you're standing there and everything else is dark, but there's this portal that you want to jump in. This piece was great. This is in my parents' backyard in Arkansas. And I love to dig a hole. So this piece was great fun because it was two days of digging in soft dirt. The next artist is Kay Overstry, and she's interested in ephemerality and transience. And in her most recent project, it's called "Weather I Made." And she's making weather on her body's scale. And this piece is "Frost." And what she did was she went out on a cold, dry night and breathed back and forth on the lawn to leave -- to leave her life's mark, the mark of her life. And so this is five-foot, five-inches of frost that she left behind. The sun rises, and it melts away. And that was played by my mom. So the next artist, this is a group of Japanese artists, a collective of Japanese artists -- in Tokyo. And they were interested in developing a new, alternative art space, and they needed funding for it, so they decided to come up with some interesting fundraising projects. One of these is scratch-off masterpieces. And so what they're doing -- each of these artists on a nine-by-seven-inch card, which they sell for 10 bucks, they drew original works of art. And you buy one, and maybe you get a real piece, and maybe not. Well this has sparked a craze in Japan, because everyone's wanting a masterpiece. And the ones that are the most sought after are the ones that are only barely scratched off. And all these works, in some way, talk about luck or fate or chance. Those first two are portraits of mega-jackpot winners years before and after their win. And in this one it's called "Drawing the Short Stick." I love this piece because I have a little cousin at home who introduced me -- which I think is such a great introduction -- to a friend one day as, "This is my cousin Shea. He draws sticks real good." Which is one of the best compliments ever. This artist is Gus Weinmueller, and he's doing a project, a large project, called "Art for the Peoples." And within this project, he's doing a smaller project called "Artists in Residence." And what he does is -- he spends a week at a time with a family. And he shows up on their porch, their doorstep, with a toothbrush and pajamas, and he's ready to spend the week with them.
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I'm a contemporary artist with a bit of an unexpected background. I was in my twenties before I ever went to an art museum. I grew up in the middle of nowhere on a dirt road in rural Arkansas, an hour from the nearest movie theater. And I think it was a great place to grow up as an artist. Because I grew up around quirky, colorful characters who were great at making with their hands. And my childhood is more hick than I could ever possibly relate to you. And also more intellectual than you would ever expect. For instance, me and my sister, when we were little, we would compete to see who could eat the most squirrel brains. But on the other side of that, though, we were big readers in our house. And if the TV was on, we were watching a documentary. And my dad is the most voracious reader I know. He can read a novel or two a day. But when I was little, I remember, he would kill flies in our house with my BB gun. And what was so amazing to me about that -- Well he would be in his recliner, would holler for me to fetch the BB gun, and I'd go get it. And what was amazing to me -- well it was pretty kickass; he was killing a fly in the house with a gun -- but what was so amazing to me was that he knew just enough how to pump it. And he could shoot it from two rooms away. Because he knew how to pump it just enough to kill the fly and not damage what it landed on. So I should talk about art. Or we'll be here all day with my childhood stories. I love contemporary art, but I'm often really frustrated with the contemporary art world and the contemporary art scene. A few years ago, I spent months in Europe to see the major international art exhibitions that have the pulse of what is supposed to be going on in the art world. And I was struck by going to so many, one after the other, with some clarity of what it was that I was longing for. And I was longing for several things that I wasn't getting, or not getting enough of. But two of the main things: one of it, I was longing for more work that was appealing to a broad public. That was accessible. And the second thing that I was longing for was some more exquisite craftsmanship and technique. So I started thinking and listing what all it was that I thought would make a perfect biennial. So I decided, I'm going to start my own biennial. I'm going to organize it and direct it. And get it going in the world. So I thought, okay, I have to have some criteria of how to choose work. So amongst all the criteria I have, there's two main things. One of them, I call my Mimaw's Test. And what that is is I imagine explaining a work of art to my grandmother in five minutes. And if I can't explain it in five minutes, then it's too obtuse or esoteric and it hasn't been refined enough yet. It needs to worked on until it can speak fluently. And then my other second set of rules -- I hate to say "rules" because it's art -- my criteria would be the three H's. Which is head, heart and hands. And great art would have "head": it would have interesting intellectual ideas and concepts. It would have "heart" in that it would have passion and heart and soul. And it would have "hand" in that it would be greatly crafted. So I started thinking about how am I going to do this biennial, how am I going to travel the world and find these artists? And then I realized one day, there's an easier solution to this. I'm just going to make the whole thing myself. And so this is what I did. So I thought, a biennial needs artists. I'm going to do an international biennial; I need artists from all around the world. So what I did was I invented a hundred artists from around the world. I figured out their bios, their passions in life and their art styles, and I started making their work. I felt, oh this is the kind of project that I could spend my whole life doing. So I decided, I'm going to make this a real biennial. It's going to be two years of studio work. And I'm going to create this in two years, and I have. So I should start to talk about these guys. Well the range is quite a bit. And I'm such a technician, so I loved this project, getting to play with all the techniques. So for example, in realist paintings, it ranges from this, which is kind of old masters style, to really realistic still-life, to this type of painting where I'm painting with a single hair. And then at the other end, there's performance and short films. And indoor installations like this indoor installation and this one. And outdoor installations like this one and this one. I know I should mention: I'm making all these things. This isn't Photoshopped. I'm under the river with those fish. So now let me introduce some of my fictional artists to you. This is Nell Remmel. Nell is interested in agricultural processes, and her work is based in these practices. This piece, which is called "Flipped Earth" -- She was interested in taking the sky and using it to cleanse barren ground. And by taking giant mirrors -- and here she's taking giant mirrors and pulling them into the dirt. And this is twenty two feet long. And what I loved about her work is, when I would walk around it and look down into the sky, looking down to watch the sky, and it unfolded in a new way. And probably the best part of this piece is at dusk and dawn when the twilight wedge has fallen and the ground's dark, but there's still the light above, bright above. And so you're standing there and everything else is dark, but there's this portal that you want to jump in. This piece was great. This is in my parents' backyard in Arkansas. And I love to dig a hole. So this piece was great fun because it was two days of digging in soft dirt. The next artist is Kay Overstry, and she's interested in ephemerality and transience. And in her most recent project, it's called "Weather I Made." And she's making weather on her body's scale. And this piece is "Frost." And what she did was she went out on a cold, dry night and breathed back and forth on the lawn to leave -- to leave her life's mark, the mark of her life. And so this is five-foot, five-inches of frost that she left behind. The sun rises, and it melts away. And that was played by my mom. So the next artist, this is a group of Japanese artists, a collective of Japanese artists -- in Tokyo. And they were interested in developing a new, alternative art space, and they needed funding for it, so they decided to come up with some interesting fundraising projects. One of these is scratch-off masterpieces. And so what they're doing -- each of these artists on a nine-by-seven-inch card, which they sell for ten bucks, they drew original works of art. And you buy one, and maybe you get a real piece, and maybe not. Well this has sparked a craze in Japan, because everyone's wanting a masterpiece. And the ones that are the most sought after are the ones that are only barely scratched off. And all these works, in some way, talk about luck or fate or chance. Those first two are portraits of mega-jackpot winners years before and after their win. And in this one it's called "Drawing the Short Stick." I love this piece because I have a little cousin at home who introduced me -- which I think is such a great introduction -- to a friend one day as, "This is my cousin Shea. He draws sticks real good." This artist is Gus Weinmueller, and he's doing a project, a large project, called "Art for the Peoples." And within this project, he's doing a smaller project called "Artists in Residence." And what he does is -- he spends a week at a time with a family. And he shows up on their porch, their doorstep, with a toothbrush and pajamas, and he's ready to spend the week with them.
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long_en_75
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speech_en
| 1,030 |
en
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This special feature analyses the indicator properties of macroeconomic variables and aggregated financial statements from the banking sector in providing early signals of distress in the banking sector. Identifying leading indicators of financial distress is important when assessing systemic risk within a broader financial stability analysis. An empirical model is estimated using data for 15 mature countries over the period 1980-2001. The analysis suggests that low economic activity, high domestic credit growth, rapid growth in property prices, as well as low profitability and low liquidity in the banking sector, have good properties as leading indicators of financial distress. Knowledge of the determinants of financial distress in the corporate sector can provide a useful foundation for analysing the degree of credit risk facing banks, and represents a key input for assessing risks and vulnerabilities to financial stability. This special feature examines the determinants of corporate failure in Italian, Spanish and French SMEs in order to shed light on whether the predictors of financial distress in these countries are the same or not. This is done by estimating models for each of these countries and a common model for the three. This allows an assessment of the differences in the determinants of financial distress and in the predictive ability of the two model set-ups. A market for collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) has evolved rapidly in Europe in recent years. Synthetically created CDOs based on credit default swaps have become a popular vehicle for transferring corporate related credit risk from the banking sector to other parts of the financial system. As with other new markets, CDOs contribute to financial efficiency, but also present new risks that central banks need to understand. From a financial stability viewpoint, concerns have been expressed about mispricing and inadequacies in risk management, even by the most sophisticated market players, as well as excessive reliance on rating agencies. Furthermore, public authorities face challenges in tracking credit risk around the financial system. Innovation and improvements in market functioning have helped to mitigate some of these concerns. In particular, the evolution of credit indices has fostered standardisation and secondary market activity. However, challenges for financial stability remain, requiring an ongoing monitoring of market developments by central banks. In November 2001, recommendations were published for the design and operation of securities settlement systems, drafted by a joint task force of the Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems (CPSS) of the central banks of the Group of Ten countries and the International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO). These 19 CPSS-IOSCO recommendations set out minimum standards that securities settlement systems should meet. They encompass the legal framework for securities settlement, risk management procedures, access, governance, efficiency, transparency and regulation and oversight, and they explicitly aim at "maintaining financial stability by strengthening the financial infrastructure". This Box discusses some of the recommendations that have a direct relation to financial stability. The rapid recovery and resumption of payment systems, in particular for systemically important payment systems (SIPS), is a key prerequisite for the resilience of the financial system to adverse shocks. In light of the new risks posed by the post 11 September environment, a number of efforts are currently under way worldwide to improve the recovery and resumption capabilities of payment systems. The objective is to provide guidance to system operators so that sufficiently robust and consistent levels of resilience are achieved across those systems. From a practical perspective, the evolution of the oversight policy for payment systems will consist of a further specification of Core Principle VII. This Principle states that "the system should ensure a high degree of security and operational reliability and should have contingency arrangements for timely completion of daily processing", but contains implementation guidelines that only cover business continuity arrangements in a rather generic way. Sources of risk in payment systems The 2004 storm season in the eastern US was the most severe since 1886, when four hurricanes struck Texas. The four hurricanes that hit Florida in August and September 2004 caused serious damage to property and, even though a significant portion of the financial cost was borne by the state and by households, led to significant losses for the insurance sector. For multiple events such as successive hurricanes, precise estimates of losses are difficult to compute because they involve mapping specific damage to each storm. Preliminary estimates of the losses from the 2004 hurricane season range between USD 21.2 and USD 26.2 billion, thereby making it the most costly year to date for hurricane-related claims, eclipsing the previous record of USD 22 billion in 1992. This Box assesses the likely impact for the euro area insurance sector. Persistently low interest rates have left the life insurance sector with significant balance sheet vulnerabilities. In the past, when interest rates were higher than those prevailing towards the end of the 1990s and early 2000s, life insurance companies in the euro area sold savings products to households with guaranteed returns. Given the long-term nature of these policies and that they had fixed returns, strains on profits began to emerge. This was because the yields earned on the asset side became lower than the offered minimum guaranteed returns on the policies they had sold. The continuous declines in interest rate also raised the duration – or interest rate sensitivity – of life insurers’ liabilities. In other words, their balance sheets were left increasingly exposed to interest rate risk, as any change in long-term interest rates translated into a change in the net present value of their liability, just as bond prices are affected by interest rate changes. Against this background, this Box examines the ways in which the life insurance industry has attempted to tackle its balance sheet mismatches. The growth of credit derivatives markets over recent years has captured much attention. However, it is useful to recall that credit risk has been shared and transferred between counterparties since at least the 1970s. Loan guarantees and insurance preceded loan syndication, which emerged and became widespread in the 1970s. This was followed shortly afterwards by more traditional forms of securitisation. Credit derivatives emerged in the 1990s, and the market for these products has been growing at exponential rates.
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This special feature analyses the indicator properties of macroeconomic variables and aggregated financial statements from the banking sector in providing early signals of distress in the banking sector. Identifying leading indicators of financial distress is important when assessing systemic risk within a broader financial stability analysis. An empirical model is estimated using data for fifteen mature countries over the period nineteen eighty to two thousand one. The analysis suggests that low economic activity, high domestic credit growth, rapid growth in property prices, as well as low profitability and low liquidity in the banking sector, have good properties as leading indicators of financial distress. Knowledge of the determinants of financial distress in the corporate sector can provide a useful foundation for analysing the degree of credit risk facing banks, and represents a key input for assessing risks and vulnerabilities to financial stability. This special feature examines the determinants of corporate failure in Italian, Spanish and French SMEs in order to shed light on whether the predictors of financial distress in these countries are the same or not. This is done by estimating models for each of these countries and a common model for the three. This allows an assessment of the differences in the determinants of financial distress and in the predictive ability of the two model set-ups. A market for collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) has evolved rapidly in Europe in recent years. Synthetically created CDOs based on credit default swaps have become a popular vehicle for transferring corporate related credit risk from the banking sector to other parts of the financial system. As with other new markets, CDOs contribute to financial efficiency, but also present new risks that central banks need to understand. From a financial stability viewpoint, concerns have been expressed about mispricing and inadequacies in risk management, even by the most sophisticated market players, as well as excessive reliance on rating agencies. Furthermore, public authorities face challenges in tracking credit risk around the financial system. Innovation and improvements in market functioning have helped to mitigate some of these concerns. In particular, the evolution of credit indices has fostered standardisation and secondary market activity. However, challenges for financial stability remain, requiring an ongoing monitoring of market developments by central banks. In November two thousand one, recommendations were published for the design and operation of securities settlement systems, drafted by a joint task force of the Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems (CPSS) of the central banks of the Group of Ten countries and the International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO). These nineteen CPSS-IOSCO recommendations set out minimum standards that securities settlement systems should meet. They encompass the legal framework for securities settlement, risk management procedures, access, governance, efficiency, transparency and regulation and oversight, and they explicitly aim at "maintaining financial stability by strengthening the financial infrastructure". This Box discusses some of the recommendations that have a direct relation to financial stability. The rapid recovery and resumption of payment systems, in particular for systemically important payment systems (SIPS), is a key prerequisite for the resilience of the financial system to adverse shocks. In light of the new risks posed by the post eleven September environment, a number of efforts are currently under way worldwide to improve the recovery and resumption capabilities of payment systems. The objective is to provide guidance to system operators so that sufficiently robust and consistent levels of resilience are achieved across those systems. From a practical perspective, the evolution of the oversight policy for payment systems will consist of a further specification of Core Principle seven. This Principle states that "the system should ensure a high degree of security and operational reliability and should have contingency arrangements for timely completion of daily processing", but contains implementation guidelines that only cover business continuity arrangements in a rather generic way. Sources of risk in payment systems The two thousand four storm season in the eastern US was the most severe since one thousand eight hundred eighty six, when four hurricanes struck Texas. The four hurricanes that hit Florida in August and September two thousand four caused serious damage to property and, even though a significant portion of the financial cost was borne by the state and by households, led to significant losses for the insurance sector. For multiple events such as successive hurricanes, precise estimates of losses are difficult to compute because they involve mapping specific damage to each storm. Preliminary estimates of the losses from the two thousand four hurricane season range between USD twenty one point two and USD twenty six point two billion, thereby making it the most costly year to date for hurricane-related claims, eclipsing the previous record of USD twenty two billion in one thousand nine hundred ninety two. This Box assesses the likely impact for the euro area insurance sector. Persistently low interest rates have left the life insurance sector with significant balance sheet vulnerabilities. In the past, when interest rates were higher than those prevailing towards the end of the one thousand nine hundred nineties and early two thousands, life insurance companies in the euro area sold savings products to households with guaranteed returns. Given the long-term nature of these policies and that they had fixed returns, strains on profits began to emerge. This was because the yields earned on the asset side became lower than the offered minimum guaranteed returns on the policies they had sold. The continuous declines in interest rate also raised the duration – or interest rate sensitivity – of life insurers’ liabilities. In other words, their balance sheets were left increasingly exposed to interest rate risk, as any change in long-term interest rates translated into a change in the net present value of their liability, just as bond prices are affected by interest rate changes. Against this background, this Box examines the ways in which the life insurance industry has attempted to tackle its balance sheet mismatches. The growth of credit derivatives markets over recent years has captured much attention. However, it is useful to recall that credit risk has been shared and transferred between counterparties since at least the nineteen seventies. Loan guarantees and insurance preceded loan syndication, which emerged and became widespread in the nineteen seventies. This was followed shortly afterwards by more traditional forms of securitisation. Credit derivatives emerged in the nineteen nineties, and the market for these products has been growing at exponential rates.
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They're made up of DNA -- everything has it, we've got rats, we've got trees, we've got insects, we've got humans. And in the case of human chromosomes, geneticist Melissa Wilson: Typically, from your genetic mom and one copy of every chromosome, and we have 22 of these that you get one copy from mom. And then there's a 23rd pair, X and Y. Molly Webster: So while all one through 22, we do not call X and Y 23. I like to think that they are waiting. But in this instance, they were like, "We're just going to keep the letters, and then we'll give them a title." They called them the sex chromosomes. Now I would wager these are the most well-known chromosomes for one simple fact: that we say X equals "girl," that they are responsible for sex. And -- and I had to learn this -- but when I'm talking about "sex" here, I'm talking about the way biology which are our ovaries and our testes -- I'm not talking about gender. And so, as a reporter at the show -- "Radiolab," the audio documentary, I was like, what's up? You know, that's kind of my job, and then I get to call people about them and ask questions. And in this case. And in the two years I had as part of "Gonads," I ended up doing for "Radiolab," I found out that these two chromosomes a little unsettling; where things that I thought were facts were, like, twisted in ways. And the world goes so far. I was like, "Maybe we should all talk about this." So, you're you all, we're all going to talk about it. And for me, the true story of X and Y. So within years of being discovered, these two little chromosomes. There was diplosome and heterochromosome and idiochromosome, and most of the names had to do their size. And then there was "sex chromosome," which they had been given that we had started seeing that the X and the Y would often go with the males. But scientists were like, "Do we really want And science historian Sarah Richardson: "You should not call them The X and Y have many functions, and you wouldn't assume controls a single trait. Imagine calling one chromosome or the 'liver chromosome.'" MW: Scientists, if you dig, it's really cool. You should. Were hesitant to, like, and such a powerfully connotated name. There was a fear that it would maybe to science, maybe to society -- but the fear was in the room. And you can see they ended up it's like a pretty juicy title. It popularized genetics, you know? But in the 100-year history you can see it starts. So around 1960 -- this is going to be our first stop on the complicated world. So around 1960, we had discovered that you could be XYY. They discovered an XYY man. And to digress a little here, it turns out that the model is really simplistic. You can actually be a whole bunch giving you, like, different types. You could be two Xs and two Ys together. You could be four Xs. You could be XO. And so I thought that was pretty crazy, because I was like, "Wow, this really upends I think most of us in this room." So a few years after they realized, researchers go to a prison in Scotland, and they do genetic analysis. And they find a number. And according to Sarah: SR: They just rushed suggesting that this extra Y chromosome could explain criminality in some men. MW: Yeah. So the logic goes like this: By this point, we're thinking Y is male. We think male is aggressive, so Y must be aggression. If you've got an extra Y. And like, we went nuts with this theory. We called it the supermale. They started scanning more prisoners, serial killers, boys. And in all seriousness, there was actually a suggestion. So in 1980, this theory pretty much toppled. One, there had been this really large study that basically showed between Y and violence, I think we all saw that coming. And then, there was one other thing. SR: Going back in that high-security, they had also found with an extra X chromosome. So these are XXY, as opposed to XYY. MW: Really? SR: Yeah. That the individuals were superfemales. They never investigated. MW: Seems like kind of an oversight. I don't know. But I think it's interesting, because what you see is if you start through the lens of sex, what naturally falls in place behind is we look at them and the traits. So men were violent, and Y explained why they were in prison. The X did not do that, because like, you know, what's X? We don't associate it with violence. And while we don't believe God, I hope we don't -- we don't believe in supermales today, there is a very similar conversation around inherent violence. So my next stop or things feeling. The World University Games and the Spanish hurdler María José. She was like a hot shot. And the night before her race.
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They're made up of DNA -- everything has it, we've got rats, we've got trees, we've got insects, we've got humans. And in the case of human chromosomes, geneticist Melissa Wilson: Typically, from your genetic mom and one copy of every chromosome, and we have twenty-two of these that you get one copy from mom. And then there's a twenty-third pair, X and Y. Molly Webster: So while all one through twenty-two, we do not call X and Y twenty-three. I like to think that they are waiting. But in this instance, they were like, "We're just going to keep the letters, and then we'll give them a title." They called them the sex chromosomes. Now I would wager these are the most well-known chromosomes for one simple fact: that we say X equals "girl," that they are responsible for sex. And -- and I had to learn this -- but when I'm talking about "sex" here, I'm talking about the way biology which are our ovaries and our testes -- I'm not talking about gender. And so, as a reporter at the show -- "Radiolab," the audio documentary, I was like, what's up? You know, that's kind of my job, and then I get to call people about them and ask questions. And in this case. And in the two years I had as part of "Gonads," I ended up doing for "Radiolab," I found out that these two chromosomes a little unsettling; where things that I thought were facts were, like, twisted in ways. And the world goes so far. I was like, "Maybe we should all talk about this." So, you're you all, we're all going to talk about it. And for me, the true story of X and Y. So within years of being discovered, these two little chromosomes. There was diplosome and heterochromosome and idiochromosome, and most of the names had to do their size. And then there was "sex chromosome," which they had been given that we had started seeing that the X and the Y would often go with the males. But scientists were like, "Do we really want And science historian Sarah Richardson: "You should not call them The X and Y have many functions, and you wouldn't assume controls a single trait. Imagine calling one chromosome or the 'liver chromosome.'" MW: Scientists, if you dig, it's really cool. You should. Were hesitant to, like, and such a powerfully connotated name. There was a fear that it would maybe to science, maybe to society -- but the fear was in the room. And you can see they ended up it's like a pretty juicy title. It popularized genetics, you know? But in the one hundred-year history you can see it starts. So around nineteen sixty -- this is going to be our first stop on the complicated world. So around nineteen sixty, we had discovered that you could be X Y Y. They discovered an X Y Y man. And to digress a little here, it turns out that the model is really simplistic. You can actually be a whole bunch giving you, like, different types. You could be two Xs and two Ys together. You could be four Xs. You could be X O. And so I thought that was pretty crazy, because I was like, "Wow, this really upends I think most of us in this room." So a few years after they realized, researchers go to a prison in Scotland, and they do genetic analysis. And they find a number. And according to Sarah: SR: They just rushed suggesting that this extra Y chromosome could explain criminality in some men. MW: Yeah. So the logic goes like this: By this point, we're thinking Y is male. We think male is aggressive, so Y must be aggression. If you've got an extra Y. And like, we went nuts with this theory. We called it the supermale. They started scanning more prisoners, serial killers, boys. And in all seriousness, there was actually a suggestion. So in nineteen eighty, this theory pretty much toppled. One, there had been this really large study that basically showed between Y and violence, I think we all saw that coming. And then, there was one other thing. SR: Going back in that high-security, they had also found with an extra X chromosome. So these are X X Y, as opposed to X Y Y. MW: Really? SR: Yeah. That the individuals were superfemales. They never investigated. MW: Seems like kind of an oversight. I don't know. But I think it's interesting, because what you see is if you start through the lens of sex, what naturally falls in place behind is we look at them and the traits. So men were violent, and Y explained why they were in prison. The X did not do that, because like, you know, what's X? We don't associate it with violence. And while we don't believe God, I hope we don't -- we don't believe in supermales today, there is a very similar conversation around inherent violence. So my next stop or things feeling. The World University Games and the Spanish hurdler María José. She was like a hot shot. And the night before her race.
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I teach history at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School. On February 14, 2018, my school experienced one of the worst. People want to know what we saw, what I felt. I don't remember everything, but I do remember I went into crisis mode, mother mode. There was no emotion. I lined up the kids, I held up a sign so they could just, like a fire drill. I heard shots from one direction. Luckily, we were already. We made it outside. We made it to safety. I called my mother. "I'm OK." I called my husband. "I'm OK." Then my daughter called,. My voice cracked,. I sat alone in my thoughts,. Worried about my colleagues and students. We sat there, only understanding. We sat there, only understanding had ended up with our babies dead, and we didn't know what to do next. It's been two months, and every day I still hear the echoes. I remember the fearful faces when we knew it wasn't a drill. Still, there's no constant emotion, except for flashes triggered by the news, or an insensitive comment, or just silence. Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School on that horrible day. After, students asked us, the adults, the hardest question: How can we stop the senseless violence? This was the most difficult. But it was not the first time I've been teaching. So I know you have to admit before you can share what you do know. In fact, there's a method, teacher, citizen. First, listen closely. Second, admit your vulnerability. Third, do your homework. Fourth, humbly share your knowledge. I know all about this process. My students ask really. They're eager to learn, and sometimes they're eager. And believe me, they know. So, in those instances, I say to them, "That's a great question." So when my students asked, "How do we stop this senseless violence?" I listened, and then I admitted, "I don't know." And like I always do when I don't know, I began doing my homework. And as a history teacher, I knew I needed to start. In case it's been a while since. Here is what the Second Amendment actually says: "A well regulated Militia, being necessary the right of the people shall not be infringed." Meaning, the federal government could not. To participate in well-regulated militias. The Second Amendment. It was written in a time before. Were among the most powerful in the world and when state militias were viewed. Fast-forward 80 years, to 1871. The American Civil War. But a couple of Union officers had witnessed some pretty shoddy. So in an attempt to prepare their men they founded the National. To promote rifle practice. In short, the Second Amendment that our newly formed and fragile country had access to organized state militias. And the NRA's original mission was. Someone could teach an entire course on how the next 150 years influenced. We're having in the United States and our interpretation. Almost every pivotal moment in one way or another influenced how we as a people manufacture, debate,. A lot of change has occurred. As a matter of fact, it wasn't until 2008 that the Supreme Court. The Second Amendment protects unconnected with service in a militia and to use that arm such as self-defense within the home. Within the home. This change over time is striking to me, because it reminds us that the interpretation and cultural attitudes about guns have changed over time. Which gives me hope. It's an incredibly complex. But it's not the lesson because we don't have time. I'm not talking about time, the time that I have here. I'm talking about the fact. According to the CDC, over the last five years, on average, each day 96 people. And if we don't figure out how to answer one of us could be next. So, if the question is, the best way I can think to answer is to look at multiple choice. You remember multiple-choice. Let's start. Choice A: this will end when we for the deadliness of their products. It might surprise you to learn that we've. Between 1998 and 2000, 30 counties and cities saying they should and do a better job of tracking. In response, manufacturers argued that they had no direct liability. They said the stores who sold the guns were responsible. In response to this, the NRA lobbied the Protection of Lawful. The PLCAA passed and entrusts gun manufacturers to design guns safely, stores to sell those guns responsibly and someone to own. And so when 17 students no one in this chain. Let's take a look at another option, Choice B: this will end when we and regulate the estimated. Yes, voting is one of the best ways to take personal responsibility. Making sure that our lawmakers is one of the most effective ways to get. And also, gun owners. If you own a gun, ask yourself: Do I have an extra gun I don't need? Could it fall into the wrong hands? Have I attended the latest training? Perhaps as a gun owner, you should also ask whether you have been. When it comes to gun violence, if we don't acknowledge to mental illness. One in six Americans. If we own a gun, we should be of our emotional well-being so we don't pull a trigger in times of illness. Otherwise, we should whether we really have the time. Perhaps for some of us it's time to lay down our arms. Then we have Choice C: this will end when we do a better job. Many social issues affect. Sixty-two percent of US gun fatalities between 2012 and 2016 were suicides, yet we call people maniacs. We are creating barriers. Why are we embarrassing each other? Let's make it easier, not harder, for people to access. What else? Sexism, racism and gun-related fatalities. On average, it's estimated that 50 women between 2010 and 2014 due to domestic violence, and women are still dying in their homes. Let's empower women and give our young boys a chance to learn how to work out their conflicts. And the "Washington Post" nearly 1,000 people were fatally wounded by on-duty police officers. Talk to Black Lives Matter. We need to tackle this. At the end of the day, perhaps people won't feel the need to buy and use a gun when they all equally feel safe, healthy, respected and cared for. All right, discussion time is over. It's now time to answer the question. How do we stop this senseless violence? Is it Choice A, Choice B, Choice C? Now, I know what you're all thinking. You remember that almost never end. There's always that fourth. Maybe that's the answer here. Or maybe "all of the above" is too easy. It requires deep analytical. So instead, I'm asking you write your own Choice D using supporting detail. And if you're not sure where to start, They are armed with incredible and a sense of citizenship. These are public school kids and their endeavor has moved our hearts. And they shouldn't have. They're asking you, they're asking all of us, to get involved. This isn't a spectator sport. So what's the right answer? I don't know. Listen, I teach the humanities. To be human is to learn, and to be part of a civilization. This kind of honest, is what I ask of my students, what I expect of myself as a teacher and what I demand of you now. Every one of you. And then what? Humbly share your knowledge. Please teach your family, teach your community, your city council, your state legislature. Teach Congress a lesson. Thank you. Thank you.
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I teach history at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School. On February fourteenth, two thousand eighteen, my school experienced one of the worst. People want to know what we saw, what I felt. I don't remember everything, but I do remember I went into crisis mode, mother mode. There was no emotion. I lined up the kids, I held up a sign so they could just, like a fire drill. I heard shots from one direction. Luckily, we were already. We made it outside. We made it to safety. I called my mother. "I'm OK." I called my husband. "I'm OK." Then my daughter called,. My voice cracked,. I sat alone in my thoughts,. Worried about my colleagues and students. We sat there, only understanding. We sat there, only understanding had ended up with our babies dead, and we didn't know what to do next. It's been two months, and every day I still hear the echoes. I remember the fearful faces when we knew it wasn't a drill. Still, there's no constant emotion, except for flashes triggered by the news, or an insensitive comment, or just silence. Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School on that horrible day. After, students asked us, the adults, the hardest question: How can we stop the senseless violence? This was the most difficult. But it was not the first time I've been teaching. So I know you have to admit before you can share what you do know. In fact, there's a method, teacher, citizen. First, listen closely. Second, admit your vulnerability. Third, do your homework. Fourth, humbly share your knowledge. I know all about this process. My students ask really. They're eager to learn, and sometimes they're eager. And believe me, they know. So, in those instances, I say to them, "That's a great question." So when my students asked, "How do we stop this senseless violence?" I listened, and then I admitted, "I don't know." And like I always do when I don't know, I began doing my homework. And as a history teacher, I knew I needed to start. In case it's been a while since. Here is what the Second Amendment actually says: "A well regulated Militia, being necessary the right of the people shall not be infringed." Meaning, the federal government could not. To participate in well-regulated militias. The Second Amendment. It was written in a time before. Were among the most powerful in the world and when state militias were viewed. Fast-forward eighty years, to eighteen seventy-one. The American Civil War. But a couple of Union officers had witnessed some pretty shoddy. So in an attempt to prepare their men they founded the National. To promote rifle practice. In short, the Second Amendment that our newly formed and fragile country had access to organized state militias. And the NRA's original mission was. Someone could teach an entire course on how the next one hundred fifty years influenced. We're having in the United States and our interpretation. Almost every pivotal moment in one way or another influenced how we as a people manufacture, debate,. As a matter of fact, it wasn't until two thousand eight that the Supreme Court. The Second Amendment protects unconnected with service in a militia and to use that arm such as self-defense within the home. Within the home. This change over time is striking to me, because it reminds us that the interpretation and cultural attitudes about guns have changed over time. Which gives me hope. It's an incredibly complex. But it's not the lesson because we don't have time. I'm not talking about time, the time that I have here. I'm talking about the fact. According to the CDC, over the last five years, on average, each day ninety-six people. And if we don't figure out how to answer one of us could be next. So, if the question is, the best way I can think to answer is to look at multiple choice. You remember multiple-choice. Let's start. Choice A: this will end when we for the deadliness of their products. It might surprise you to learn that we've. Between one thousand nine hundred ninety-eight and two thousand, thirty counties and cities saying they should and do a better job of tracking. In response, manufacturers argued that they had no direct liability. They said the stores who sold the guns were responsible. In response to this, the NRA lobbied the Protection of Lawful. The PLCAA passed and entrusts gun manufacturers to design guns safely, stores to sell those guns responsibly and someone to own. And so when seventeen students no one in this chain. Let's take a look at another option, Choice B: this will end when we and regulate the estimated. Yes, voting is one of the best ways to take personal responsibility. Making sure that our lawmakers is one of the most effective ways to get. And also, gun owners. If you own a gun, ask yourself: Do I have an extra gun I don't need? Could it fall into the wrong hands? Have I attended the latest training? Perhaps as a gun owner, you should also ask whether you have been. When it comes to gun violence, if we don't acknowledge to mental illness. One in six Americans. If we own a gun, we should be of our emotional well-being so we don't pull a trigger in times of illness. Otherwise, we should whether we really have the time. Perhaps for some of us it's time to lay down our arms. Then we have Choice C: this will end when we do a better job. Many social issues affect. Sixty-two percent of US gun fatalities between two thousand twelve and two thousand sixteen were suicides, yet we call people maniacs. We are creating barriers. Why are we embarrassing each other? Let's make it easier, not harder, for people to access. What else? Sexism, racism and gun-related fatalities. On average, it's estimated that fifty women between two thousand ten and two thousand fourteen due to domestic violence, and women are still dying in their homes. Let's empower women and give our young boys a chance to learn how to work out their conflicts. And the "Washington Post" nearly one thousand people were fatally wounded by on-duty police officers. Talk to Black Lives Matter. We need to tackle this. At the end of the day, perhaps people won't feel the need to buy and use a gun when they all equally feel safe, healthy, respected and cared for. All right, discussion time is over. It's now time to answer the question. How do we stop this senseless violence? Is it Choice A, Choice B, Choice C? Now, I know what you're all thinking. You remember that almost never end. There's always that fourth. Maybe that's the answer here. Or maybe "all of the above" is too easy. It requires deep analytical. So instead, I'm asking you write your own Choice D using supporting detail. And if you're not sure where to start, They are armed with incredible and a sense of citizenship. These are public school kids and their endeavor has moved our hearts. And they shouldn't have. They're asking you, they're asking all of us, to get involved. This isn't a spectator sport. So what's the right answer? I don't know. Listen, I teach the humanities. To be human is to learn, and to be part of a civilization. This kind of honest, is what I ask of my students, what I expect of myself as a teacher and what I demand of you now. Every one of you. And then what? Humbly share your knowledge. Please teach your family, teach your community, your city council, your state legislature. Teach Congress a lesson. Thank you. Thank you.
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As we get started, I wanted to first on current events for the moment, and let's take five seconds to look around to try to find even one thing. Other humans don’t count. Ready? Go. Make eye contact when you're done. One thing that's not manufactured. Not actually that easy, is it? Manufacturing is a sixth. One third of all greenhouse. And for context, that's huge. That is three times all the emissions. Somehow, though, it starts when you try to think of what. The trees. The ocean. Fluffy clouds, of course. But everything we humans make, is manufactured. So how that manufacturing. I want to share how we can all think. Why the greatest opportunity and why the heroes of our time, with the coolest, most absolutely are going to be in manufacturing. And here's the great news. 57 percent of Gen Z. Just kidding. 57 percent of Gen Z wants to be. And that's the problem. Manufacturing has an outdated, dull, dirty, and dangerous. So I grew up in the San. Friends went into tech. But I was a wide-eyed 23-year-old. I joined a company on a mission to bring millions of students. And I showed up my first day. First thing, my new boss. Let me tell you, nothing brings you than realizing your actual first job. But then, I stepped. Conveyors moving, machines sealing meals, and I realized I had always thought. But everything at scale. I spent five years there, and I can never. Manufacturing is everything. Not just food, but cardboard boxes, asphalt roads. Our trucks drove on. Manufacturing is everything. But we don't give it a second thought, or in most cases, even a first. We should. Where and how we manufacture has never been. We got a tiny taste of it in COVID. Trapped at home. At first, it was kind of a joke. Stores are sold out of toilet paper. But then it cuts deeper. Groceries, baby formula, N95 masks. When it actually felt. And then, I realized if someone they may not have gloves or masks either, because we don't have the factories. For critical things. Even AI. We all talk about the cloud. Nope. Every conversation I have with AI leaders, they're trying to figure out massive data centers wrapped in steel and cement, with fans and cooling towers, all using more power. That's all made in factories. The future isn’t just coded -- it’s built. If we can't build, we can't lead. If we can't build, we are handing the keys. We're at a turning point. And as humans, we've actually had. In World War II, Rosie the Riveters, powering. The choice we humans face today. It's not just about which countries. It's about whether we humans that we can live on at all. I'm seeing people everywhere stepping up. Jacob Malowa, efficient solar-powered locally in East Africa. Olivia Weatherly, optimizing making water tanks in Indiana. Lisa, transforming. Paul Boudreau making. Cesar Bermudez, making igloo coolers. Beth Esponnette, 3D-weaving jeans. Medicine. Water tanks. Jeans. Satellites. Sutures. Animal crackers. This can be fun. It can be entrepreneurial, it can be sexy, and it can be sustainable. From food manufacturing, and I saw incredible technology. Win, win, win. Lower cost, lower emissions. First, it felt like we got this, and I thought, "I don't know." But since then, I've spent time in more factories everywhere from Minneapolis. And I've seen the same thing everywhere. Energy is a big cost. And 99 percent of the world's factories for those awesome Stanford solutions. The light bulb went off, and I started a company. At first, we got started clipped sensors, like little smartwatches, on the power going into each machine, and launched, excited to see. And ... nothing happened. Oh my gosh, I remember staring so sadly. Energy was a big cost. The team seemed to care, but they were not using it. Except for two guys, Willy and Purav. They were logging in all day. So we went out to their factory, and their production team showed us which is that the power going it was the heartbeat of their machines, which was the heartbeat which was the heartbeat. Energy was a big cost. It's all about production. And production had been across patchworks of different ages, makes and models of equipment. But every machine uses power. And just like you don't have if you're running or resting. From that electrical heartbeat that's a real machine, wildly cool -- we can know exactly how fast, and predict problems before they happen. It's the first-ever universal translator for any machine, anywhere on the planet, energy to production, and the foundation. So any factory team on Earth and decarbonize. For a very simple example, if you have a big machine, it's wasting energy. That's just one tiny part of why the hundreds of manufacturers are already seeing energy efficiency and productivity up 1.4x. That is a huge impact, and the impact just grows with more scale and as the power of AI improves. These are not dull. These are clean, cutting-edge. But unless we bring manufacturing. Millions of jobs in manufacturing are currently on track. That's innovation critical infrastructure. Edison said, “Opportunity because it's dressed in overalls." These awesome teams need talent. If they come, we can build it. Imagine if 57 percent actually was excited to make real things instead of Instagram Reels. Each of us, whether we care, can help make manufacturing. So here's my ask. If you're a parent. If you're a kid, or a kid at heart. And everyone, let's thank the makers, because our future. Let's roll up our sleeves and build it. Thank you.
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As we get started, I wanted to first on current events for the moment, and let's take five seconds to look around to try to find even one thing. Other humans don’t count. Ready? Go. Make eye contact when you're done. One thing that's not manufactured. Not actually that easy, is it? Manufacturing is a sixth. One third of all greenhouse. And for context, that's huge. That is three times all the emissions. Somehow, though, it starts when you try to think of what. The trees. The ocean. Fluffy clouds, of course. But everything we humans make, is manufactured. So how that manufacturing. I want to share how we can all think. Why the greatest opportunity and why the heroes of our time, with the coolest, most absolutely are going to be in manufacturing. And here's the great news. fifty-seven percent of Gen Z. Just kidding. fifty-seven percent of Gen Z wants to be. And that's the problem. Manufacturing has an outdated, dull, dirty, and dangerous. So I grew up in the San. Friends went into tech. But I was a wide-eyed twenty-three-year-old. I joined a company on a mission to bring millions of students. And I showed up my first day. First thing, my new boss. Let me tell you, nothing brings you than realizing your actual first job. But then, I stepped. Conveyors moving, machines sealing meals, and I realized I had always thought. But everything at scale. I spent five years there, and I can never. Manufacturing is everything. Not just food, but cardboard boxes, asphalt roads. Our trucks drove on. Manufacturing is everything. But we don't give it a second thought, or in most cases, even a first. We should. Where and how we manufacture has never been. We got a tiny taste of it in COVID. Trapped at home. At first, it was kind of a joke. Stores are sold out of toilet paper. But then it cuts deeper. Groceries, baby formula, N nine five masks. When it actually felt. And then, I realized if someone they may not have gloves or masks either, because we don't have the factories. For critical things. Even AI. We all talk about the cloud. Nope. Every conversation I have with AI leaders, they're trying to figure out massive data centers wrapped in steel and cement, with fans and cooling towers, all using more power. That's all made in factories. The future isn’t just coded -- it’s built. If we can't build, we can't lead. If we can't build, we are handing the keys. We're at a turning point. And as humans, we've actually had. In World War two, Rosie the Riveters, powering. The choice we humans face today. It's not just about which countries. It's about whether we humans that we can live on at all. I'm seeing people everywhere stepping up. Jacob Malowa, efficient solar-powered locally in East Africa. Olivia Weatherly, optimizing making water tanks in Indiana. Lisa, transforming. Paul Boudreau making. Cesar Bermudez, making igloo coolers. Beth Esponnette, three D weaving jeans. Medicine. Water tanks. Jeans. Satellites. Sutures. Animal crackers. This can be fun. It can be entrepreneurial, it can be sexy, and it can be sustainable. From food manufacturing, and I saw incredible technology. Win, win, win. Lower cost, lower emissions. First, it felt like we got this, and I thought, "I don't know." But since then, I've spent time in more factories everywhere from Minneapolis. And I've seen the same thing everywhere. Energy is a big cost. And ninety nine percent of the world's factories for those awesome Stanford solutions. The light bulb went off, and I started a company. At first, we got started clipped sensors, like little smartwatches, on the power going into each machine, and launched, excited to see. And ... nothing happened. Oh my gosh, I remember staring so sadly. Energy was a big cost. The team seemed to care, but they were not using it. Except for two guys, Willy and Purav. They were logging in all day. So we went out to their factory, and their production team showed us which is that the power going it was the heartbeat of their machines, which was the heartbeat which was the heartbeat. Energy was a big cost. It's all about production. And production had been across patchworks of different ages, makes and models of equipment. But every machine uses power. And just like you don't have if you're running or resting. From that electrical heartbeat that's a real machine, wildly cool -- we can know exactly how fast, and predict problems before they happen. It's the first-ever universal translator for any machine, anywhere on the planet, energy to production, and the foundation. So any factory team on Earth and decarbonize. For a very simple example, if you have a big machine, it's wasting energy. That's just one tiny part of why the hundreds of manufacturers are already seeing energy efficiency and productivity up one point four times. That is a huge impact, and the impact just grows with more scale and as the power of AI improves. These are not dull. These are clean, cutting-edge. But unless we bring manufacturing. Millions of jobs in manufacturing are currently on track. That's innovation critical infrastructure. Edison said, “Opportunity because it's dressed in overalls." These awesome teams need talent. If they come, we can build it. Imagine if fifty-seven percent actually was excited to make real things instead of Instagram Reels. Each of us, whether we care, can help make manufacturing. So here's my ask. If you're a parent. If you're a kid, or a kid at heart. And everyone, let's thank the makers, because our future. Let's roll up our sleeves and build it. Thank you.
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This may mask instances where specific products within a broad HS 6 classification have a high rearrangement ratio. Rearrangement ratios have been calculated using trade values, which are an imperfect proxy for trade volumes. Trade values are generally more reliably recorded than trade volumes, and therefore our analysis is based on the former. However, using trade values implicitly assumes similar unit prices and consistent price reporting across exporting economies, an assumption that may not generally hold. For example, for a commoditized product like hot-rolled steel band, European exports are on average about 60 percent more expensive than China’s. And for something like a cotton T-shirt, the average US import from Europe costs about eight times more than one from China. In these cases, rearranging a certain dollar amount of trade from China to Europe would not deliver the same volume of product. A high rearrangement ratio for US Christmas decorations might dampen the yuletide mood but does not pose major risks to lives or livelihoods. Disruptions in the supply of products such as semiconductors and lithium-ion batteries would have more meaningful consequences. Cutting back on consumption is not a good option. And some products, such as biologic medicines and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, require substantial investment and scarce know-how to produce, meaning that ramping up production is less feasible, at least in the short term. The average US China-rearrangement ratio is about 0.4, but the figure varies widely across sectors. It is lowest for pharmaceutical products (roughly 0.03), midrange (between 0.3 and 0.5) for electronics and textiles, and highest (more than 0.9) for “other manufacturing”—a catch-all category encompassing products from yoga mats to staplers to lawn furniture to knitting needles. These products are often contract (made-to-order) goods. Imports of consumer electronics are more difficult to rearrange than the intermediate components within them, like semiconductors. Almost all intermediate components have ratios lower than 0.3. In contrast, the most-imported consumer electronics have ratios ranging from about 0.3 to 1.0. Consider smartphones, which are at the lower end of the consumer electronics range, with a ratio of about 0.4. While 80 percent of US imports come from China, manufacturers such as Vietnam and India currently export smartphones in sizable quantities to the non-US global market and so, in principle, could service the US market—if consumers were brand agnostic. For laptops, on the other hand, the rearrangement ratio is nearly 1.0. The United States imports more than $45 billion worth of laptops each year, more than 20 times more than it exports. China supplies about $35 billion of this total, roughly equal to all exports from Europe (the 27 member states of the European Union plus Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom) and Asia to non-US markets. The range is also broad for textiles. In general, apparel such as T-shirts, jerseys, and trousers is exported by a wide range of economies, with rearrangement ratios generally less than 0.1. Indeed, China has been shifting away from this category and moved from representing nearly 45 percent of global apparel exports in 2010 to 25 percent in 2023. However, rearrangement ratios are greater than 0.5 for other products ranging from synthetic-fiber socks to face masks and surgical drapes. Products within the other manufacturing category have rearrangement ratios from near zero to well past 1.0. Metal chairs and vacuum flasks are examples. Of course, this is all approximation. The trousers shipped from Bangladesh may have a different cut, stitching, and fabric from those shipped from Italy. The cell phone manufactured in China may not be the same brand as the one made in South Korea. The coffee from Indonesia may taste more earthy, and that from Ethiopia, fruitier. But for our calculations, we treat products with the same classification, known as HS 6 codes, as interchangeable without considering quality factors or price. US consumer goods imports from China are generally harder to rearrange than business inputs. Rearrangement is relatively easier for the roughly 35 percent of all US imports from China that have a rearrangement ratio less than 0.1. Consider truck tires, which had a rearrangement ratio of 0.1 in 2018, before the United States imposed tariffs on China that rose to 25 percent. This led US imports from China to drop by more than 60 percent, but total US truck tire imports remained stable as exports from other economies rearranged toward the United States. In practice, this means that to replace Chinese imports, US buyers would need to attract up to 10 percent of the currently available global export market. Even this would be a substantial undertaking. New input sources need to be found, product requirements specified, and contracts negotiated. About 60 percent of intermediate goods—those used in production processes—fall into this easier-to-rearrange bucket. Examples include semiconductors and auto parts. An additional roughly 30 percent of intermediate goods have rearrangement ratios less than 0.25. The United States tends to import a large fraction of these types of products from economies other than mainland China, and an additional supply base that might be tapped exists. On the other end of the spectrum, full rearrangement is currently impossible for the 5 percent of US imports that have a ratio greater than 1.0. These tend to be goods for final consumption—products that people buy for personal use—including consumer electronics as well as various forms of textiles and other manufacturing. In many cases, China has gained enormous cost advantages in producing these goods, making it both difficult and unappealing to compete. Some specific critical intermediate products also have a ratio greater than 1.0. Examples include rare earth magnets, which are used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and defense applications, as well as some chemicals used in pharmaceutical manufacturing.
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This may mask instances where specific products within a broad HS six classification have a high rearrangement ratio. Rearrangement ratios have been calculated using trade values, which are an imperfect proxy for trade volumes. Trade values are generally more reliably recorded than trade volumes, and therefore our analysis is based on the former. However, using trade values implicitly assumes similar unit prices and consistent price reporting across exporting economies, an assumption that may not generally hold. For example, for a commoditized product like hot-rolled steel band, European exports are on average about sixty percent more expensive than China’s. And for something like a cotton T-shirt, the average US import from Europe costs about eight times more than one from China. In these cases, rearranging a certain dollar amount of trade from China to Europe would not deliver the same volume of product. A high rearrangement ratio for US Christmas decorations might dampen the yuletide mood but does not pose major risks to lives or livelihoods. Disruptions in the supply of products such as semiconductors and lithium-ion batteries would have more meaningful consequences. Cutting back on consumption is not a good option. And some products, such as biologic medicines and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, require substantial investment and scarce know-how to produce, meaning that ramping up production is less feasible, at least in the short term. The average US China-rearrangement ratio is about zero point four, but the figure varies widely across sectors. It is lowest for pharmaceutical products (roughly zero point zero three), midrange (between zero point three and zero point five) for electronics and textiles, and highest (more than zero point nine) for “other manufacturing”—a catch-all category encompassing products from yoga mats to staplers to lawn furniture to knitting needles. These products are often contract (made-to-order) goods. Imports of consumer electronics are more difficult to rearrange than the intermediate components within them, like semiconductors. Almost all intermediate components have ratios lower than zero point three. In contrast, the most-imported consumer electronics have ratios ranging from about zero point three to one point zero. Consider smartphones, which are at the lower end of the consumer electronics range, with a ratio of about zero point four. While eighty percent of US imports come from China, manufacturers such as Vietnam and India currently export smartphones in sizable quantities to the non-US global market and so, in principle, could service the US market—if consumers were brand agnostic. For laptops, on the other hand, the rearrangement ratio is nearly one point zero. The United States imports more than forty five billion dollars worth of laptops each year, more than twenty times more than it exports. China supplies about thirty five billion dollars of this total, roughly equal to all exports from Europe (the twenty seven member states of the European Union plus Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom) and Asia to non-US markets. The range is also broad for textiles. In general, apparel such as T-shirts, jerseys, and trousers is exported by a wide range of economies, with rearrangement ratios generally less than zero point one. Indeed, China has been shifting away from this category and moved from representing nearly forty five percent of global apparel exports in two thousand ten to twenty five percent in two thousand twenty three. However, rearrangement ratios are greater than zero point five for other products ranging from synthetic-fiber socks to face masks and surgical drapes. Products within the other manufacturing category have rearrangement ratios from near zero to well past one point zero. Metal chairs and vacuum flasks are examples. Of course, this is all approximation. The trousers shipped from Bangladesh may have a different cut, stitching, and fabric from those shipped from Italy. The cell phone manufactured in China may not be the same brand as the one made in South Korea. The coffee from Indonesia may taste more earthy, and that from Ethiopia, fruitier. But for our calculations, we treat products with the same classification, known as HS six codes, as interchangeable without considering quality factors or price. US consumer goods imports from China are generally harder to rearrange than business inputs. Rearrangement is relatively easier for the roughly thirty five percent of all US imports from China that have a rearrangement ratio less than zero point one. Consider truck tires, which had a rearrangement ratio of zero point one in two thousand eighteen, before the United States imposed tariffs on China that rose to twenty five percent. This led US imports from China to drop by more than sixty percent, but total US truck tire imports remained stable as exports from other economies rearranged toward the United States. In practice, this means that to replace Chinese imports, US buyers would need to attract up to ten percent of the currently available global export market. Even this would be a substantial undertaking. New input sources need to be found, product requirements specified, and contracts negotiated. About sixty percent of intermediate goods—those used in production processes—fall into this easier-to-rearrange bucket. Examples include semiconductors and auto parts. An additional roughly thirty percent of intermediate goods have rearrangement ratios less than zero point two five. The United States tends to import a large fraction of these types of products from economies other than mainland China, and an additional supply base that might be tapped exists. On the other end of the spectrum, full rearrangement is currently impossible for the five percent of US imports that have a ratio greater than one point zero. These tend to be goods for final consumption—products that people buy for personal use—including consumer electronics as well as various forms of textiles and other manufacturing. In many cases, China has gained enormous cost advantages in producing these goods, making it both difficult and unappealing to compete. Some specific critical intermediate products also have a ratio greater than one point zero. Examples include rare earth magnets, which are used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and defense applications, as well as some chemicals used in pharmaceutical manufacturing.
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Social video platforms offer a seemingly endless variety of free content, algorithmically optimized for engagement and advertising. They wield advanced ad tech and AI to match advertisers with global audiences, now drawing over half of US ad spending. As the largest among them move into the living room, will they be held to higher standards of quality? At the same time, the streaming on-demand video (SVOD) revolution has fragmented pay TV audiences, imposed higher costs on studios now operating direct-to-consumer services, and delivered thinner margins for their efforts. It can be a tougher business, yet the premium video experience offered by streamers often sets the bar for quality storytelling, acting, and world-building. How can studios control costs, attract advertisers, and compete for attention? Are there stronger points of collaboration that can benefit both streamers looking to reach global audiences and social platforms that lack high-quality franchises? This year’s Digital Media Trends lends data to the argument that video entertainment has been disrupted by social platforms, creators, user-generated content (UGC), and advanced modeling for content recommendations and advertising. Such platforms may be establishing the new center of gravity for media and entertainment, drawing more of the time people spend on entertainment and the money that brands spend to reach them. Our survey of US consumers reveals that media and entertainment companies—including advertisers—are competing for an average of six hours of daily media and entertainment time per person. And this number doesn’t seem to be growing. Not only is it unlikely that any one form of media will command all six hours, but each user likely has a different mix of SVOD, UGC, social, gaming, music, podcasts, and potentially other forms of digital media that make up these entertainment hours. Looking across generations, preferences among respondents appear to be shifting away from pay TV and toward streaming video services, social video platforms, and gaming. Although TV once dominated video entertainment time, we now see US audiences—and especially younger generations—engaging more evenly with SVOD companies, social platforms, gaming, and even audio entertainment like music and podcasts. And they are using different devices to consume media. Jana is vice chair and Deloitte’s US Telecom, Media and Entertainment (TM&E) sector leader. She is also a principal in Deloitte and Touche’s Risk and Financial Advisory practice. Jana has more than 20 years of experience in serving large, multi-national technology companies to help them address enterprise risk. She has leveraged her risk advisory capabilities to lead engagements for digital platform companies, helping them navigate evolving regulatory requirements and business transformation. Jana has built worldwide engagement teams to serve several Fortune 500 companies, across the Americas, Europe, Middle East, and Asia. As the US TM&E sector leader, Jana is focused on strategic direction and market eminence of the TM&E sector, and go-to-market strategies for Deloitte’s key businesses. Jana was formerly the Inclusion and Well-being leader for Risk and Financial Advisory and continues to bring inclusion and well-being into everything she does. With more than 30 years of experience in U.S. and international taxation, Doug serves as the US Telecom, Media & Entertainment Sector Leader at Deloitte. In this role, he collaborates closely with lead client service partners to support the firm’s largest and most complex TMT clients, driving the eminence agenda for the practice. Doug is a seasoned expert in tax planning strategies, corporate and international tax strategies, and accounting for income taxes. His extensive expertise encompasses large multinational operations, including restructuring, mergers and acquisition planning, international and repatriation strategies, and transfer pricing. With a particular focus on interactive gaming, sports, and telecommunications, he provides innovative solutions that help clients navigate complex landscapes and capitalize on growth opportunities. Chris Arkenberg is a research manager with Deloitte’s Center for Technology, Media and Telecommunications. He has 20 years of experience focusing on how people and organizations interact with transformational technologies. Bree Matheson is a research manager with Deloitte’s Center for Technology, Media & Telecommunications. Her research focuses on media, entertainment, and consumer technology. She holds a PhD in technical communication and rhetoric from Utah State University. Brooke Auxier is a research manager with Deloitte’s Center for Technology, Media & Telecommunications. Her research focuses on media, entertainment, and consumer technology. She has a Ph.D. in journalism from the University of Maryland. Cable and satellite television services deliver programming through set-top hardware, while live streaming television services deliver live programming through an internet connection. The media and entertainment landscape is constantly evolving alongside consumer preferences. Rising entertainment costs are often a concern for consumers, but hybrid experiences and fandoms may present a path to growing monetization.
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Social video platforms offer a seemingly endless variety of free content, algorithmically optimized for engagement and advertising. They wield advanced ad tech and AI to match advertisers with global audiences, now drawing over half of US ad spending. As the largest among them move into the living room, will they be held to higher standards of quality? At the same time, the streaming on-demand video (SVOD) revolution has fragmented pay TV audiences, imposed higher costs on studios now operating direct-to-consumer services, and delivered thinner margins for their efforts. It can be a tougher business, yet the premium video experience offered by streamers often sets the bar for quality storytelling, acting, and world-building. How can studios control costs, attract advertisers, and compete for attention? Are there stronger points of collaboration that can benefit both streamers looking to reach global audiences and social platforms that lack high-quality franchises? This year’s Digital Media Trends lends data to the argument that video entertainment has been disrupted by social platforms, creators, user-generated content (UGC), and advanced modeling for content recommendations and advertising. Such platforms may be establishing the new center of gravity for media and entertainment, drawing more of the time people spend on entertainment and the money that brands spend to reach them. Our survey of US consumers reveals that media and entertainment companies—including advertisers—are competing for an average of six hours of daily media and entertainment time per person. And this number doesn’t seem to be growing. Not only is it unlikely that any one form of media will command all six hours, but each user likely has a different mix of SVOD, UGC, social, gaming, music, podcasts, and potentially other forms of digital media that make up these entertainment hours. Looking across generations, preferences among respondents appear to be shifting away from pay TV and toward streaming video services, social video platforms, and gaming. Although TV once dominated video entertainment time, we now see US audiences—and especially younger generations—engaging more evenly with SVOD companies, social platforms, gaming, and even audio entertainment like music and podcasts. And they are using different devices to consume media. Jana is vice chair and Deloitte’s US Telecom, Media and Entertainment (TM and E) sector leader. She is also a principal in Deloitte and Touche’s Risk and Financial Advisory practice. Jana has more than twenty years of experience in serving large, multi-national technology companies to help them address enterprise risk. She has leveraged her risk advisory capabilities to lead engagements for digital platform companies, helping them navigate evolving regulatory requirements and business transformation. Jana has built worldwide engagement teams to serve several Fortune five hundred companies, across the Americas, Europe, Middle East, and Asia. As the US TM&E sector leader, Jana is focused on strategic direction and market eminence of the TM&E sector, and go-to-market strategies for Deloitte’s key businesses. Jana was formerly the Inclusion and Well-being leader for Risk and Financial Advisory and continues to bring inclusion and well-being into everything she does. With more than thirty years of experience in U.S. and international taxation, Doug serves as the US Telecom, Media & Entertainment Sector Leader at Deloitte. In this role, he collaborates closely with lead client service partners to support the firm’s largest and most complex TMT clients, driving the eminence agenda for the practice. Doug is a seasoned expert in tax planning strategies, corporate and international tax strategies, and accounting for income taxes. His extensive expertise encompasses large multinational operations, including restructuring, mergers and acquisition planning, international and repatriation strategies, and transfer pricing. With a particular focus on interactive gaming, sports, and telecommunications, he provides innovative solutions that help clients navigate complex landscapes and capitalize on growth opportunities. Chris Arkenberg is a research manager with Deloitte’s Center for Technology, Media and Telecommunications. He has twenty years of experience focusing on how people and organizations interact with transformational technologies. Bree Matheson is a research manager with Deloitte’s Center for Technology, Media & Telecommunications. Her research focuses on media, entertainment, and consumer technology. She holds a PhD in technical communication and rhetoric from Utah State University. Brooke Auxier is a research manager with Deloitte’s Center for Technology, Media & Telecommunications. Her research focuses on media, entertainment, and consumer technology. She has a Ph.D. in journalism from the University of Maryland. Cable and satellite television services deliver programming through set-top hardware, while live streaming television services deliver live programming through an internet connection. The media and entertainment landscape is constantly evolving alongside consumer preferences. Rising entertainment costs are often a concern for consumers, but hybrid experiences and fandoms may present a path to growing monetization.
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One of the sectors worst affected by the turbulent credit market environment after the summer of 2007 is the financial guarantor sector (also referred to as "bond insurers" or "monolines"). Large credit spread increases, coupled with rating downgrades on structured credit products against the default of which the financial guarantors had sold protection, caused large mark-to-market losses for most financial guarantors, which weakened their capital positions. The capital shortfalls led to a questioning of the ratings of the financial guarantors (often AAA-rated), and guarantors that were not able to raise new capital were downgraded by rating agencies. The rating downgrades of some financial guarantors led to rating downgrades and value losses for the securities that they had insured. These developments rippled through parts of the financial system and capital markets through both direct and indirect channels. This box describes the financial guarantor business model and how the problems in the sector spread to other parts of the financial system and to capital markets. The marked increase in valuations in Chinese equity markets between early 2006 and the autumn of 2007 and the correction that occurred after the finalisation of the last FSR have given rise to financial stability concerns about the potential consequences of a bubble burst. While implications for euro area financial stability should not be overstated, this box reviews recent developments in Chinese equity markets, as they have attracted significant attention since the publication of the last FSR. Notwithstanding the positive contribution they can make in facilitating portfolio diversification and the distribution of risk across a wide range of investors – thus enhancing credit risk management possibilities – structured finance markets played a central role in propagating the initial sub-prime mortgage market shock across broader credit markets (see Figure A). This box examines some of the factors which contributed to such propagation. Delinquency and foreclosure rates on US mortgages started to increase in mid-2006, especially for adjustable-rate sub-prime mortgages (see Chart A). Compared to the previous economic downturn in 2001-2002, delinquency rates have not been exceptionally high. However, a new structural feature of the market is the substantial share of sub-prime mortgages, which increased from just over 10% of the total stock of mortgage loans in 2000 to over 20% in 2006. This category of mortgage loan exhibited a much higher incidence of delinquency, with sub-prime adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) registering a delinquency rate of 20% in the fourth quarter of 2007, up from 6.6% in the first quarter of 2006. In this sub-category, the US Treasury estimates that approximately 1.8 million adjustable-rate sub-prime mortgages – with an estimated value of between USD 300 and USD 400 billion – will reset in 2008 and 2009. The bulk of these resets are expected to take place during the first three quarters of 2008 and should decline rapidly thereafter. As the fragility of sub-prime ARM mortgages is pivotal to the financial stability outlook at the current juncture, this box explores how the interest rate burden implied by these resets varies with the interest rate. This special feature examines whether securitisation activity and banks’ risk-taking have had any impact on euro area banks’ lending behaviour. It finds this to be the case. In particular, based on a sample covering around 3,000 intermediaries over the first seven years of EMU, it is found that the favourable financial condition of banks together with strong securitisation activity seem to have diminished the importance of the bank lending channel and strengthened the ability of banks to supply loans. However, it is also found that this capacity depends upon business cycle conditions and, notably, upon banks’ risk positions. In other words, deterioration in either could have an adverse affect on bank loan supply. Information from equity and credit market based indicators of banks is commonly used for financial stability assessment. In this practice, it is often assumed that equity market-based indicators provide information on the markets’ assessment of the outlook for, and the risks surrounding, future banking profitability. At the same time, for the credit-based indicators the prior assumption is that these provide information on the credit risk outlook for banks or the likelihood of bank failure.
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One of the sectors worst affected by the turbulent credit market environment after the summer of two thousand seven is the financial guarantor sector (also referred to as "bond insurers" or "monolines"). Large credit spread increases, coupled with rating downgrades on structured credit products against the default of which the financial guarantors had sold protection, caused large mark-to-market losses for most financial guarantors, which weakened their capital positions. The capital shortfalls led to a questioning of the ratings of the financial guarantors (often AAA-rated), and guarantors that were not able to raise new capital were downgraded by rating agencies. The rating downgrades of some financial guarantors led to rating downgrades and value losses for the securities that they had insured. These developments rippled through parts of the financial system and capital markets through both direct and indirect channels. This box describes the financial guarantor business model and how the problems in the sector spread to other parts of the financial system and to capital markets. The marked increase in valuations in Chinese equity markets between early two thousand six and the autumn of two thousand seven and the correction that occurred after the finalisation of the last FSR have given rise to financial stability concerns about the potential consequences of a bubble burst. While implications for euro area financial stability should not be overstated, this box reviews recent developments in Chinese equity markets, as they have attracted significant attention since the publication of the last FSR. Notwithstanding the positive contribution they can make in facilitating portfolio diversification and the distribution of risk across a wide range of investors – thus enhancing credit risk management possibilities – structured finance markets played a central role in propagating the initial sub-prime mortgage market shock across broader credit markets (see Figure A). This box examines some of the factors which contributed to such propagation. Delinquency and foreclosure rates on US mortgages started to increase in mid-two thousand six, especially for adjustable-rate sub-prime mortgages (see Chart A). Compared to the previous economic downturn in two thousand one-two thousand two, delinquency rates have not been exceptionally high. However, a new structural feature of the market is the substantial share of sub-prime mortgages, which increased from just over ten percent of the total stock of mortgage loans in two thousand to over twenty percent in two thousand six. This category of mortgage loan exhibited a much higher incidence of delinquency, with sub-prime adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) registering a delinquency rate of twenty percent in the fourth quarter of two thousand seven, up from six point six percent in the first quarter of two thousand six. In this sub-category, the US Treasury estimates that approximately one point eight million adjustable-rate sub-prime mortgages – with an estimated value of between USD three hundred and USD four hundred billion – will reset in two thousand eight and two thousand nine. The bulk of these resets are expected to take place during the first three quarters of two thousand eight and should decline rapidly thereafter. As the fragility of sub-prime ARM mortgages is pivotal to the financial stability outlook at the current juncture, this box explores how the interest rate burden implied by these resets varies with the interest rate. This special feature examines whether securitisation activity and banks’ risk-taking have had any impact on euro area banks’ lending behaviour. It finds this to be the case. In particular, based on a sample covering around three thousand intermediaries over the first seven years of EMU, it is found that the favourable financial condition of banks together with strong securitisation activity seem to have diminished the importance of the bank lending channel and strengthened the ability of banks to supply loans. However, it is also found that this capacity depends upon business cycle conditions and, notably, upon banks’ risk positions. In other words, deterioration in either could have an adverse affect on bank loan supply. Information from equity and credit market based indicators of banks is commonly used for financial stability assessment. In this practice, it is often assumed that equity market-based indicators provide information on the markets’ assessment of the outlook for, and the risks surrounding, future banking profitability. At the same time, for the credit-based indicators the prior assumption is that these provide information on the credit risk outlook for banks or the likelihood of bank failure.
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Navied Mahdavian: Every artist will say, but they’re wrong, because cartooning. Because you can say, and with just like a few lines, you can express happiness. Because every time I am drawing something, I mean, I find that I'm recreating, like, I'm expressing on my face, exactly contorting my face as I'm drawing it. And there's constant, like, the erasing. NM: One of the things, and being here at TEDNext, is the intersections between. Like, when I was asked, I was like, I'm going, I don't know what. But then as I started thinking about it, like, realizing that there. Amy Baxter: I think that’s that the people I've met is finding threads. And then sort of pulling them where you're together. One thing I thought was interesting is that most of my life has been kind of in chunks. You know, it's like I get interested in this thing, and I do the thing, and then I move on to the next chunk. And I wondered. When you make a book, does that exercise whatever or whatever creative nugget? Or do you still keep a thread? NM: I was going to make a joke where it makes it sound. But I think the demon and for people to laugh at what I'm doing. But the book and the cartoons, because the cartoons, you're just doing one after another, and you just kind of like, turn them out. You find something that's funny, and then they're inevitably going after I've submitted, and then you just move on. Where the book is a much larger project. And, so the book that I wrote, "This Country: Searching for Home". I mean, that was a project was about three years, which is a very different that, you know, I think of something draw it, send it out, and then just. But I don't know if there's ever reaching a point of completion. But even in the process of drawing it, there's like, getting the 10,000 hours in. Where the beginning of the book the drawing, like. And I've spoken to other the frustration that when you're where you are just always, because it's a craft. And then wanting to go back and like, but then inevitably then. And I feel like that process. And so maybe that's the demon. It's just the never being satisfied. AB: Interesting, so it’s the craft, it's really more the execution of it. NM: Yeah, well then there are the ideas. So most of the work that I've been doing since I finished the book, I went from the single gag cartoons to comics that are about me and like the memoir. And so using myself that in that moment are interesting. But I think they fit into -- and so I think I'm just exploring those. And so I don't know. So there’s the craft. And I'm exploring the idea and then figuring out new ways. AB: So you -- and I'll let you, but you have moved. And one thing I find whether it's in your own I think that we know who we are because the banks of our river that keep us in place. And so when you leave those it can be very destabilizing. How do you get adjusted, and are there things you do or things that are always disorienting? NM: So I think in the past -- and I think within the first she lived in four different. And I think we always say, but then I think we're really resilient. But I don't know. And I think that there's always, and I think, like, as you get older, and like, you have the certain. But one of the questions that I explore. So it's like searching. But I think that that's just no matter where we are. And I think we have those, the concentric circles where, you know, like, your house, and your wider community. And I think that moving, there's like that inner ring, and then the outer rings are the things. And sometimes you're not able. So like when I moved to rural Idaho, I tried finding, like, circles, those outer circles. And so then there was. And so now I'm living in a new place. AB: Yeah, we used to think that, you know, happy people can be happy anywhere. And then we went to Dallas, and it was really interesting because the values of the people. It really was hard to trust. And it turned out it was much more that made us feel comfortable. Not even activities or educational level or any of those things. But what made much more. NM: I mean, what about for you? What is it like? Because, I mean, you've developed. I mean, I really want to talk, but what is it like for you, I mean, is there the moving on, excising? AB: So the thing you're referring to, my first grant was to make, and I had the idea, sitting at my desk. I'd been working with pain for so long. And you know, which pain scale. And I thought, you know, is if we had a scale for barfing, and then the last face could be. So that made me chuckle. And so then I thought, you know, actually, it's worse for many people. So I had my brother make a Python program, and we had Luke Conrad draw a whole bunch of different Ekman calls them the six -- six universal faces. So we, we represent it -- and I read all this stuff. And so we figured out which parts of a face on a cartoon made someone feel, you know, was it sweat coming out? Was it a trembling lip? Was it feeling dizzy, what was it? And so we made all. And then we had 120 faces. So it was like a little animation neutral face going blah, chunks. And then, and so the nurses would figure out each of the different. But the things that I'm most proud are that it's been translated and validated in those languages. NM: Do they keep the acronym BARF? AB: That's a great question. I don't know. I think they do, because I don't think for Baxter Animated Retching Faces Scale. But the only reason was because the journal I wanted to use the word barf. And so I snuck it in. This is the name of the creators. It came from an animation of cartoons. That's why we have to keep this name. So I got the name BARF in, and also there's a little monster. It's got a very dear place in my heart. But despite this whole, once I was done with it, I wasn't interested. I did my thing. Other people can use it. I'm on to my next thing. I got so much grief from the doctor because he was like, "Pain is dead, we've got it taken care of. Nausea is the next frontier." And I was like, well, yeah, but I'm more interested in pain. So when I get something done, I'm much more interested. And I may bring pieces with me, but it's no longer interesting. NM: As you were talking as a cartoonist, I was getting excited. And that was the thing that I was most, because I was like, something I talk about in my TED Talk is the power of cartoons and why every artist will say but they’re wrong, because cartooning. Because you can say, and with just a few lines, you can express happiness. And so as you were talking, like, finding what, but then all those in the middle, you said, that somebody had developed, which I mean, as a cartoonist, I would have loved to have known. Because every time I am drawing something, I mean, I find that I'm recreating, like, I'm trying, I'm expressing it. Contorting my face as I'm drawing it. And there's constant, like, the erasing. And so I'm constantly. And so hearing the process, like, AB: Well, and that's the thing. We had the essences of the emotions. So we had the essence of disgust, the essence of feeling. And then once those faces looked good, then everything morphed until it was incremental. And then we had real people, nurses, gauge where on that spectrum they thought 60 percent, 80 percent was. But it's interesting what you say. We just got back from going to a bunch of different. And so the time where he backed off to expressing an eyebrow and finding what the most. And I think that that is a really. NM: It's like that distillation but into just a few lines. And we’re immediately able to recognize. AB: Do you know? NM: It's the phenomenon of face pareidolia, where we see faces in inanimate objects. AB: Oh, that's cool. NM: Pareidolia. I should know this. I was a Classics Major, but yeah, I mean there's something that we see faces in, like, sort of happy, the front of a car. We see faces everywhere. And so I think that the ability to recognize smiley face as a smiley face is whatever that. AB: It's hardwired. Because developmentally for children, they are only able to see. But one of the reasons why you actually is because they're not making or they're not seeing the face shapes. That's not where their attention is. And as kids get older, their attention is not. Their attention is at a spot or a tree or something like that. So for most people, I think you're right. It's just universal. And it probably is part. Things that we may also overlap on, pain is interestingly very cultural. It is very different. NM: Go on. AB: Go on. Yeah, so there are different cultures is more what you're supposed to do. NM: It's the culture. AB: Yeah, cultural, so it is much more. It is much more permissible just to say, you know, to really lean or letting people know. And then there are cultures. And male and female feel pain differently. So it's interesting to me that cartooning symmetric amongst different cultures when one of the most basic is actually represented in very. NM: Which also, I mean, I thought about this where the ways that we, the way that we express the sort of smiley face, we don't actually frown, but we recognize the frown as being sad. But then I saw with my daughter, she actually would frown. And she would -- so there was something of our pictorial representations and whatever else in her face, and for whatever reason. And I wondered if, at what point do we lose that? Because she would definitely frown. AB: Have a full-on pout. NM: Exactly, the full-on pout. But we don't actually see adults do it. it’s usually the comical. Because I think with our expressions and our feelings and how we express them, I mean, often it's not really in the face that we're representing. It's what makes it so difficult to know, how are they actually feeling? Because we can mask it so well. Where little kids, they don't do that. AB: Nor do people with visual impairments. My son has a visual impairment. And so he has often a resting superiority face or a resting ... hungry. Many things will come across. It is also getting back this concept that if you make even holding a pencil in between, that it becomes so ingrained that you will feel happier. And so I wonder if we also negatively, because it does make us feel worse. NM: Oh, that's interesting. AB: I don't know. When you're drawing something or about something that's really. How does that change? NM: So I wrote a piece about ... I've done a couple of pieces. One about accompanying my dad and another about my grandmother before she passed. And in each of those, I mean, like ... grief is complicated. So my approach to both and to make it simple. And I did that by focusing. So one was going to dialysis with my dad. He's slowly dying of kidney failure. And then for my grandmother, one of my earliest memories. And I think that ... when we’re trying to dodge grief, we tend to caricature. And cartooning has allowed me, which then I think opens up and to my complicated. So like, with my grandmother, was just this focal point. Because there's so much, but focusing on that certain memories that were related to that and to also keep it because my grandmother's not here. So I'm, in some ways, speaking for her and on her behalf, but keeping it firmly rooted in my experience of her, if that makes sense. AB: Did coning it down? NM: Totally. Because, and particularly with comics, I tend to think of it as, like, in order to express. And so that allowed me to ...
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Navied Mahdavian: Every artist will say, but they’re wrong, because cartooning. Because you can say, and with just like a few lines, you can express happiness. Because every time I am drawing something, I mean, I find that I'm recreating, like, I'm expressing on my face, exactly contorting my face as I'm drawing it. And there's constant, like, the erasing. NM: One of the things, and being here at TEDNext, is the intersections between. Like, when I was asked, I was like, I'm going, I don't know what. But then as I started thinking about it, like, realizing that there. Amy Baxter: I think that’s that the people I've met is finding threads. And then sort of pulling them where you're together. One thing I thought was interesting is that most of my life has been kind of in chunks. You know, it's like I get interested in this thing, and I do the thing, and then I move on to the next chunk. And I wondered. When you make a book, does that exercise whatever or whatever creative nugget? Or do you still keep a thread? NM: I was going to make a joke where it makes it sound. But I think the demon and for people to laugh at what I'm doing. But the book and the cartoons, because the cartoons, you're just doing one after another, and you just kind of like, turn them out. You find something that's funny, and then they're inevitably going after I've submitted, and then you just move on. Where the book is a much larger project. And, so the book that I wrote, "This Country: Searching for Home". I mean, that was a project was about three years, which is a very different that, you know, I think of something draw it, send it out, and then just. But I don't know if there's ever reaching a point of completion. But even in the process of drawing it, there's like, getting the ten thousand hours in. Where the beginning of the book the drawing, like. And I've spoken to other the frustration that when you're where you are just always, because it's a craft. And then wanting to go back and like, but then inevitably then. And I feel like that process. And so maybe that's the demon. It's just the never being satisfied. AB: Interesting, so it’s the craft, it's really more the execution of it. NM: Yeah, well then there are the ideas. So most of the work that I've been doing since I finished the book, I went from the single gag cartoons to comics that are about me and like the memoir. And so using myself that in that moment are interesting. But I think they fit into -- and so I think I'm just exploring those. And so I don't know. So there’s the craft. And I'm exploring the idea and then figuring out new ways. AB: So you -- and I'll let you, but you have moved. And one thing I find whether it's in your own I think that we know who we are because the banks of our river that keep us in place. And so when you leave those it can be very destabilizing. How do you get adjusted, and are there things you do or things that are always disorienting? NM: So I think in the past -- and I think within the first she lived in four different. And I think we always say, but then I think we're really resilient. But I don't know. And I think that there's always, and I think, like, as you get older, and like, you have the certain. But one of the questions that I explore. So it's like searching. But I think that that's just no matter where we are. And I think we have those, the concentric circles where, you know, like, your house, and your wider community. And I think that moving, there's like that inner ring, and then the outer rings are the things. And sometimes you're not able. So like when I moved to rural Idaho, I tried finding, like, circles, those outer circles. And so then there was. And so now I'm living in a new place. AB: Yeah, we used to think that, you know, happy people can be happy anywhere. And then we went to Dallas, and it was really interesting because the values of the people. It really was hard to trust. And it turned out it was much more that made us feel comfortable. Not even activities or educational level or any of those things. But what made much more. NM: I mean, what about for you? What is it like? Because, I mean, you've developed. I mean, I really want to talk, but what is it like for you, I mean, is there the moving on, excising? AB: So the thing you're referring to, my first grant was to make, and I had the idea, sitting at my desk. I'd been working with pain for so long. And you know, which pain scale. And I thought, you know, is if we had a scale for barfing, and then the last face could be. So that made me chuckle. And so then I thought, you know, actually, it's worse for many people. So I had my brother make a Python program, and we had Luke Conrad draw a whole bunch of different Ekman calls them the six -- six universal faces. So we, we represent it -- and I read all this stuff. And so we figured out which parts of a face on a cartoon made someone feel, you know, was it sweat coming out? Was it a trembling lip? Was it feeling dizzy, what was it? And so we made all. And then we had one hundred twenty faces. So it was like a little animation neutral face going blah, chunks. And then, and so the nurses would figure out each of the different. But the things that I'm most proud are that it's been translated and validated in those languages. NM: Do they keep the acronym BARF? AB: That's a great question. I don't know. I think they do, because I don't think for Baxter Animated Retching Faces Scale. But the only reason was because the journal I wanted to use the word barf. And so I snuck it in. This is the name of the creators. It came from an animation of cartoons. That's why we have to keep this name. So I got the name BARF in, and also there's a little monster. It's got a very dear place in my heart. But despite this whole, once I was done with it, I wasn't interested. I did my thing. Other people can use it. I'm on to my next thing. I got so much grief from the doctor because he was like, "Pain is dead, we've got it taken care of. Nausea is the next frontier." And I was like, well, yeah, but I'm more interested in pain. So when I get something done, I'm much more interested. And I may bring pieces with me, but it's no longer interesting. NM: As you were talking as a cartoonist, I was getting excited. And that was the thing that I was most, because I was like, something I talk about in my TED Talk is the power of cartoons and why every artist will say but they’re wrong, because cartooning. Because you can say, and with just a few lines, you can express happiness. And so as you were talking, like, finding what, but then all those in the middle, you said, that somebody had developed, which I mean, as a cartoonist, I would have loved to have known. Because every time I am drawing something, I mean, I find that I'm recreating, like, I'm trying, I'm expressing it. Contorting my face as I'm drawing it. And there's constant, like, the erasing. And so I'm constantly. And so hearing the process, like, AB: Well, and that's the thing. We had the essences of the emotions. So we had the essence of disgust, the essence of feeling. And then once those faces looked good, then everything morphed until it was incremental. And then we had real people, nurses, gauge where on that spectrum they thought sixty percent, eighty percent was. But it's interesting what you say. We just got back from going to a bunch of different. And so the time where he backed off to expressing an eyebrow and finding what the most. And I think that that is a really. NM: It's like that distillation but into just a few lines. And we’re immediately able to recognize. AB: Do you know? NM: It's the phenomenon of face pareidolia, where we see faces in inanimate objects. AB: Oh, that's cool. NM: Pareidolia. I should know this. I was a Classics Major, but yeah, I mean there's something that we see faces in, like, sort of happy, the front of a car. We see faces everywhere. And so I think that the ability to recognize smiley face as a smiley face is whatever that. AB: It's hardwired. Because developmentally for children, they are only able to see. But one of the reasons why you actually is because they're not making or they're not seeing the face shapes. That's not where their attention is. And as kids get older, their attention is not. Their attention is at a spot or a tree or something like that. So for most people, I think you're right. It's just universal. And it probably is part. Things that we may also overlap on, pain is interestingly very cultural. It is very different. NM: Go on. AB: Go on. Yeah, so there are different cultures is more what you're supposed to do. NM: It's the culture. AB: Yeah, cultural, so it is much more. It is much more permissible just to say, you know, to really lean or letting people know. And then there are cultures. And male and female feel pain differently. So it's interesting to me that cartooning symmetric amongst different cultures when one of the most basic is actually represented in very. NM: Which also, I mean, I thought about this where the ways that we, the way that we express the sort of smiley face, we don't actually frown, but we recognize the frown as being sad. But then I saw with my daughter, she actually would frown. And she would -- so there was something of our pictorial representations and whatever else in her face, and for whatever reason. And I wondered if, at what point do we lose that? Because she would definitely frown. AB: Have a full-on pout. NM: Exactly, the full-on pout. But we don't actually see adults do it. it’s usually the comical. Because I think with our expressions and our feelings and how we express them, I mean, often it's not really in the face that we're representing. It's what makes it so difficult to know, how are they actually feeling? Because we can mask it so well. Where little kids, they don't do that. AB: Nor do people with visual impairments. My son has a visual impairment. And so he has often a resting superiority face or a resting ... hungry. Many things will come across. It is also getting back this concept that if you make even holding a pencil in between, that it becomes so ingrained that you will feel happier. And so I wonder if we also negatively, because it does make us feel worse. NM: Oh, that's interesting. AB: I don't know. When you're drawing something or about something that's really. How does that change? NM: So I wrote a piece about ... I've done a couple of pieces. One about accompanying my dad and another about my grandmother before she passed. And in each of those, I mean, like ... grief is complicated. So my approach to both and to make it simple. And I did that by focusing. So one was going to dialysis with my dad. He's slowly dying of kidney failure. And then for my grandmother, one of my earliest memories. And I think that ... when we’re trying to dodge grief, we tend to caricature. And cartooning has allowed me, which then I think opens up and to my complicated. So like, with my grandmother, was just this focal point. Because there's so much, but focusing on that certain memories that were related to that and to also keep it because my grandmother's not here. So I'm, in some ways, speaking for her and on her behalf, but keeping it firmly rooted in my experience of her, if that makes sense. AB: Did coning it down? NM: Totally. Because, and particularly with comics, I tend to think of it as, like, in order to express. And so that allowed me to ...
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Deloitte Insights and our research centers deliver proprietary research designed to help organizations turn their aspirations into action. From data visualizations to expert commentary, our video content delivers concise, actionable information to help you lead with clarity in a complex world. Ira Kalish is the chief global economist of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd. He is a specialist in global economic issues and the effects of economic, demographic, and social trends on the global business environment. The establishment survey indicated that, in August, only 22,000 new jobs were created from the previous month. Moreover, the June and July numbers were revised, with the new data showing a decline in employment in June but somewhat faster employment growth for July than previously reported. In August, job growth was either feeble or negative in most industries. The major exceptions were health care and social assistance (up 46,800), and leisure and hospitality (up 28,000). When these two categories are excluded, the numbers show that there was a sharp decline in employment in August. By industry, employment was down 7,000 in construction, down 12,000 in manufacturing, down 5,000 in information, down 3,000 in financial services, down 17,000 in professional and business services, and down 16,000 in government. The establishment survey also provides data on earnings. It indicated that, in August, average hourly earnings of private sector workers were up 3.7% from a year earlier—the second lowest rate of increase since May 2021. Thus, wage pressure is gradually easing, given the weak demand for labor. Fortuitously for workers, earnings are rising faster than inflation, thereby boosting household purchasing power. Even as demand for labor decelerates, the supply of labor is falling, in part due to restrictive immigration policy. However, if inflation accelerates sharply due to tariffs, it will undermine consumer purchasing power. The separate household survey offered a somewhat more favorable view of the job market. The household survey includes data on self-employment. The survey found that the labor force grew faster than the working-age population, leading to a small increase in the rate of participation. Yet employment grew considerably more slowly than the labor force, thereby leading to a slight increase in the unemployment rate. It hit 4.3%—the highest since October 2021. There was a sharp increase in the unemployment rate for workers lacking a high school education but no change for college graduates. Thus, it appears that unskilled workers are facing obstacles to employment. In response to the jobs report, the yield on the US Treasury’s 10-year bond fell to 4.1%—the lowest in 10 months. This reflects expectations that the economy is weakening, thereby reducing inflationary pressures and increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy. Equity prices fell as well. The futures markets are now pricing an 89% probability that the Fed will cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points this month and a 10% chance of a 50-point cut this month. Moreover, there is a 91% probability that the Fed will cut the rate two or three times before the end of the year, and a zero likelihood of no rates cuts by December. This includes a 64% probability of three rate cuts by the end of the year. In other words, many investors are now highly optimistic that the Fed may engage in an aggressively easy monetary policy. The job openings rate was highest in information, accommodation and food service, and professional business services. The rate was lowest in mining, wholesale trade, and durables manufacturing. From a year ago, the overall job openings rate fell from 4.5% to 4.3%. However, in some industries, there was a notable increase in the job openings rate. These industries included construction, transportation and warehousing, information, and accommodation and food service. Some of these industries are heavily dependent on migrant labor. The drop in immigration and the increase in deportations might explain some of this increase. It could also lead to stronger wage pressure in these industries, thereby exacerbating inflation. On the other hand, some industries saw a sharp decline in the job openings rate. These included mining, durable goods manufacturing, and health care and social assistance. The decline for manufacturing could be related to trade uncertainty and disruption. The state of the US job market has weakened. Still, the job openings rate is relatively high while the unemployment rate is relatively low. Thus, it is not clear if the weakness is sufficient to cause concern about the economy being sufficiently weak, to warrant an easing of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to seek low inflation and maximum employment. Currently, inflation is above the Fed’s target and appears to be accelerating while employment growth has eased. Thus, the Fed faces a trade-off. Meanwhile, one sign of economic strength is that financial market conditions in the United States are relatively favorable. This is evidenced by the national financial conditions index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. That index shows that, currently, the United States has the most favorable financial market conditions since November 2021, during the pandemic. This is due to the lagged effect of the Fed’s easy monetary policy, which began in 2024. Given that conditions are so favorable, it is not clear that it makes sense to ease policy further at a time when inflation is a growing concern. Prior to the pandemic, the index was even more favorable in the 2018-to-2020 time frame.
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Deloitte Insights and our research centers deliver proprietary research designed to help organizations turn their aspirations into action. From data visualizations to expert commentary, our video content delivers concise, actionable information to help you lead with clarity in a complex world. Ira Kalish is the chief global economist of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd. He is a specialist in global economic issues and the effects of economic, demographic, and social trends on the global business environment. The establishment survey indicated that, in August, only twenty two thousand new jobs were created from the previous month. Moreover, the June and July numbers were revised, with the new data showing a decline in employment in June but somewhat faster employment growth for July than previously reported. In August, job growth was either feeble or negative in most industries. The major exceptions were health care and social assistance (up forty six thousand eight hundred), and leisure and hospitality (up twenty eight thousand). When these two categories are excluded, the numbers show that there was a sharp decline in employment in August. By industry, employment was down seven thousand in construction, down twelve thousand in manufacturing, down five thousand in information, down three thousand in financial services, down seventeen thousand in professional and business services, and down sixteen thousand in government. The establishment survey also provides data on earnings. It indicated that, in August, average hourly earnings of private sector workers were up three point seven percent from a year earlier—the second lowest rate of increase since May two thousand twenty-one. Thus, wage pressure is gradually easing, given the weak demand for labor. Fortuitously for workers, earnings are rising faster than inflation, thereby boosting household purchasing power. Even as demand for labor decelerates, the supply of labor is falling, in part due to restrictive immigration policy. However, if inflation accelerates sharply due to tariffs, it will undermine consumer purchasing power. The separate household survey offered a somewhat more favorable view of the job market. The household survey includes data on self-employment. The survey found that the labor force grew faster than the working-age population, leading to a small increase in the rate of participation. Yet employment grew considerably more slowly than the labor force, thereby leading to a slight increase in the unemployment rate. It hit four point three percent—the highest since October two thousand twenty-one. There was a sharp increase in the unemployment rate for workers lacking a high school education but no change for college graduates. Thus, it appears that unskilled workers are facing obstacles to employment. In response to the jobs report, the yield on the US Treasury’s ten-year bond fell to four point one percent—the lowest in ten months. This reflects expectations that the economy is weakening, thereby reducing inflationary pressures and increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy. Equity prices fell as well. The futures markets are now pricing an eighty nine percent probability that the Fed will cut the benchmark rate by twenty five basis points this month and a ten percent chance of a fifty point cut this month. Moreover, there is a ninety one percent probability that the Fed will cut the rate two or three times before the end of the year, and a zero likelihood of no rates cuts by December. This includes a sixty four percent probability of three rate cuts by the end of the year. In other words, many investors are now highly optimistic that the Fed may engage in an aggressively easy monetary policy. The job openings rate was highest in information, accommodation and food service, and professional business services. The rate was lowest in mining, wholesale trade, and durables manufacturing. From a year ago, the overall job openings rate fell from four point five percent to four point three percent. However, in some industries, there was a notable increase in the job openings rate. These industries included construction, transportation and warehousing, information, and accommodation and food service. Some of these industries are heavily dependent on migrant labor. The drop in immigration and the increase in deportations might explain some of this increase. It could also lead to stronger wage pressure in these industries, thereby exacerbating inflation. On the other hand, some industries saw a sharp decline in the job openings rate. These included mining, durable goods manufacturing, and health care and social assistance. The decline for manufacturing could be related to trade uncertainty and disruption. The state of the US job market has weakened. Still, the job openings rate is relatively high while the unemployment rate is relatively low. Thus, it is not clear if the weakness is sufficient to cause concern about the economy being sufficiently weak, to warrant an easing of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to seek low inflation and maximum employment. Currently, inflation is above the Fed’s target and appears to be accelerating while employment growth has eased. Thus, the Fed faces a trade-off. Meanwhile, one sign of economic strength is that financial market conditions in the United States are relatively favorable. This is evidenced by the national financial conditions index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. That index shows that, currently, the United States has the most favorable financial market conditions since November two thousand twenty-one, during the pandemic. This is due to the lagged effect of the Fed’s easy monetary policy, which began in two thousand twenty-four. Given that conditions are so favorable, it is not clear that it makes sense to ease policy further at a time when inflation is a growing concern. Prior to the pandemic, the index was even more favorable in the two thousand eighteen-to-two thousand twenty time frame.
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As part of this assessment, this box analyses the growing importance of listed CRE companies, and a sub-set thereof known as real estate investment trusts (REITs), in the euro area. Emerging market economies have experienced accelerated financial deepening since the onset of the financial crisis. Consequently, financial stability risks emanating from emerging markets may spill over more widely to the global financial system. A key focus in this regard has been China, not least given the sheer size of its banking sector and the country’s growing role in international finance. Against this background, this box investigates the risks related to the growing size and systemic importance of Chinese banks and their possible implications for euro area financial stability. This special feature analyses the distribution of interest rate risk in the euro area economy using balance sheet data and information on derivatives positions from significant credit institutions. On aggregate, banks’ interest rate risk exposure is small relative to their loss absorption capacity, but exposure varies across institutions. This variation is driven by loan rate fixation practices at country level. Banks use derivatives for hedging, but retain residual interest rate risk exposures. In fixed-rate countries the main vulnerability to rising interest rates lies with the banks that have the greatest interest rate risk, while households would be directly affected in countries with predominantly variable-rate loans. In the latter case, increased loan servicing costs due to rising interest rates could affect banks through lower asset quality. Commodity traders are relevant from a financial stability perspective as they are active players in derivatives markets. Commodity dealers buy or sell a commodity and transform it, for example, by transporting or storing it, and may hedge the resulting commodity position with a derivative transaction. The derivative contract will hedge, for example, against commodity price risk, which is considered the largest risk for most trading firms, or against changes in foreign exchange rates. Thus, hedging is inherent to the business of commodity dealers and derivatives are central to commodity traders’ risk management frameworks. At the same time, there are concerns about the speculative use of derivative contracts. For example, in the US the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) intends to establish position limits for physical commodity derivatives, with the aim to prevent excessive speculation from distorting commodity prices. An abrupt repricing of risk premia in bond markets has the potential to expose vulnerabilities in the rapidly growing investment fund sector. A shock to bond prices would give rise to first-round mark-to-market losses for open-end investment funds, particularly those with large exposures to debt securities. From a systemic risk perspective, these losses could propagate through the financial system if negative returns trigger investor outflows, eventually resulting in forced sales of fund portfolios. Such sales have the potential to amplify the original shock to bond prices, with wider financial stability implications in the form of impaired market liquidity and possible spillovers to the real economy, via negative wealth and confidence effects. This box sheds some light on this channel, dubbed the "flow-performance nexus", by quantifying the impact of an interest rate shock on the net asset values of euro area-domiciled investment funds (everything else held equal). More specifically, the first part of the analysis examines the impact of an increase in yields on the net asset value of the main euro area investment fund categories (equity, bond, mixed, real estate, money market, hedge and other funds), while the second part particularly focuses on euro area bond funds. Traditionally, the investment behaviour of insurance corporations and pension funds (ICPFs) has been viewed as having a stabilising effect on financial markets in that they act countercyclically by buying assets, the prices of which fall. Since ICPFs aim to match their long-term liabilities with their long-term assets, they are natural long-term investors and, as such, they typically hold assets until maturity and are less sensitive to short-term price movements. However, recent studies challenge this view by providing empirical evidence of procyclical Financial Stability Review November 2017 – Euro area financial institutions investment behaviour, whereby ICPFs sell assets after a drop in price, especially in periods of severe market stress. To stimulate post-crisis economies characterised by low growth and low inflation, some central banks, including the ECB, have adopted negative policy rates. The rationale for negative rates is that they provide additional monetary stimulus, giving banks an incentive to lend to the real sector and thereby supporting growth and a return to target inflation. An accurate assessment of bond market liquidity conditions is a crucial input for financial stability risk analysis. As commonly defined, "liquidity" measures how much trading volume a financial market can absorb for a given change in price or what the price impact of a given trade volume will be.
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As part of this assessment, this box analyses the growing importance of listed CRE companies, and a sub-set thereof known as real estate investment trusts (REITs), in the euro area. Emerging market economies have experienced accelerated financial deepening since the onset of the financial crisis. Consequently, financial stability risks emanating from emerging markets may spill over more widely to the global financial system. A key focus in this regard has been China, not least given the sheer size of its banking sector and the country’s growing role in international finance. Against this background, this box investigates the risks related to the growing size and systemic importance of Chinese banks and their possible implications for euro area financial stability. This special feature analyses the distribution of interest rate risk in the euro area economy using balance sheet data and information on derivatives positions from significant credit institutions. On aggregate, banks’ interest rate risk exposure is small relative to their loss absorption capacity, but exposure varies across institutions. This variation is driven by loan rate fixation practices at country level. Banks use derivatives for hedging, but retain residual interest rate risk exposures. In fixed-rate countries the main vulnerability to rising interest rates lies with the banks that have the greatest interest rate risk, while households would be directly affected in countries with predominantly variable-rate loans. In the latter case, increased loan servicing costs due to rising interest rates could affect banks through lower asset quality. Commodity traders are relevant from a financial stability perspective as they are active players in derivatives markets. Commodity dealers buy or sell a commodity and transform it, for example, by transporting or storing it, and may hedge the resulting commodity position with a derivative transaction. The derivative contract will hedge, for example, against commodity price risk, which is considered the largest risk for most trading firms, or against changes in foreign exchange rates. Thus, hedging is inherent to the business of commodity dealers and derivatives are central to commodity traders’ risk management frameworks. At the same time, there are concerns about the speculative use of derivative contracts. For example, in the US the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) intends to establish position limits for physical commodity derivatives, with the aim to prevent excessive speculation from distorting commodity prices. An abrupt repricing of risk premia in bond markets has the potential to expose vulnerabilities in the rapidly growing investment fund sector. A shock to bond prices would give rise to first-round mark-to-market losses for open-end investment funds, particularly those with large exposures to debt securities. From a systemic risk perspective, these losses could propagate through the financial system if negative returns trigger investor outflows, eventually resulting in forced sales of fund portfolios. Such sales have the potential to amplify the original shock to bond prices, with wider financial stability implications in the form of impaired market liquidity and possible spillovers to the real economy, via negative wealth and confidence effects. This box sheds some light on this channel, dubbed the "flow-performance nexus", by quantifying the impact of an interest rate shock on the net asset values of euro area-domiciled investment funds (everything else held equal). More specifically, the first part of the analysis examines the impact of an increase in yields on the net asset value of the main euro area investment fund categories (equity, bond, mixed, real estate, money market, hedge and other funds), while the second part particularly focuses on euro area bond funds. Traditionally, the investment behaviour of insurance corporations and pension funds (ICPFs) has been viewed as having a stabilising effect on financial markets in that they act countercyclically by buying assets, the prices of which fall. Since ICPFs aim to match their long-term liabilities with their long-term assets, they are natural long-term investors and, as such, they typically hold assets until maturity and are less sensitive to short-term price movements. However, recent studies challenge this view by providing empirical evidence of procyclical Financial Stability Review November two thousand seventeen – Euro area financial institutions investment behaviour, whereby ICPFs sell assets after a drop in price, especially in periods of severe market stress. To stimulate post-crisis economies characterised by low growth and low inflation, some central banks, including the ECB, have adopted negative policy rates. The rationale for negative rates is that they provide additional monetary stimulus, giving banks an incentive to lend to the real sector and thereby supporting growth and a return to target inflation. An accurate assessment of bond market liquidity conditions is a crucial input for financial stability risk analysis. As commonly defined, "liquidity" measures how much trading volume a financial market can absorb for a given change in price or what the price impact of a given trade volume will be.
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Contagion across banks is widely perceived to be an important element in banking crises and thus a major systemic stability concern. For example, the private sector rescue operation of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), which was coordinated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, was justified on the grounds of the risk of contagion to banks. Similarly, contagion risks transmitted through the interbank market played a major role in the decisions of the Bank of Japan to react to the failures of major Japanese securities houses in the early 1990s. Generally, however, evidence of the significance of contagion is fairly limited. This special feature analyses the risk of cross-border contagion for large European banks. After the near-collapse of LTCM in September 1998, recently hedge funds have again started to capture the attention of financial stability watchers. However, this time the renewed interest is motivated by their impressive growth and increasing proliferation as a mainstream alternative investment vehicle. Securities settlement systems form an essential part of the financial market infrastructure. If they are badly designed, they may contribute to severe disruption of the functioning of financial markets. Awareness of the importance of securities settlement systems is especially high in Europe, as the European securities settlement infrastructure has been changing rapidly in many ways. This Special Feature describes the most important reasons why robust securities settlement systems are important for safeguarding financial stability, and states how they should be designed to ensure that they do not contribute to instability in financial markets. On 26 June 2004, the central bank governors and the heads of banking supervisory authorities of the G10 countries endorsed the Revised Framework for Capital Measurement and Capital Standards, commonly known as Basel II or the New Accord. Basel II is the culmination of a highly challenging project that was carried out by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and its member agencies over a period lasting more than five years. Following the publication of the first round of proposals in June 1999, two additional consultative packages were circulated in 2001 and 2003 for comments, involving industry representatives, supervisory agencies, central banks and other observers in all member countries. For many countries the next step will be the implementation of the Revised Framework by the end of 2006, according to the timetable developed by the BCBS. The deadline for the implementation of the most advanced approaches to risk measurement foreseen by the new framework is the end of 2007. This Special Feature provides an overview of the comprehensive approach of the New Accord, placing emphasis on the innovative elements of Basel II and relevant aspects from a financial stability perspective. It concludes with an assessment of the key remaining challenges for a successful implementation of the New Accord. The household sector is one of the key sectors for financial stability analysis in EU and in the euro area for two main reasons. Firstly, the household sector accounts for a significant proportion of non-bank lending in terms of the stock of credit outstanding. At the end of June 2004, approximately 30% of loans granted to euro area residents were to households. By contrast, about 25% were granted to non-financial corporations. This share has not changed very significantly since the start of EMU.
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Contagion across banks is widely perceived to be an important element in banking crises and thus a major systemic stability concern. For example, the private sector rescue operation of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), which was coordinated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, was justified on the grounds of the risk of contagion to banks. Similarly, contagion risks transmitted through the interbank market played a major role in the decisions of the Bank of Japan to react to the failures of major Japanese securities houses in the early nineteen nineties. Generally, however, evidence of the significance of contagion is fairly limited. This special feature analyses the risk of cross-border contagion for large European banks. After the near-collapse of LTCM in September nineteen ninety eight, recently hedge funds have again started to capture the attention of financial stability watchers. However, this time the renewed interest is motivated by their impressive growth and increasing proliferation as a mainstream alternative investment vehicle. Securities settlement systems form an essential part of the financial market infrastructure. If they are badly designed, they may contribute to severe disruption of the functioning of financial markets. Awareness of the importance of securities settlement systems is especially high in Europe, as the European securities settlement infrastructure has been changing rapidly in many ways. This Special Feature describes the most important reasons why robust securities settlement systems are important for safeguarding financial stability, and states how they should be designed to ensure that they do not contribute to instability in financial markets. On twenty six June two thousand four, the central bank governors and the heads of banking supervisory authorities of the G ten countries endorsed the Revised Framework for Capital Measurement and Capital Standards, commonly known as Basel two or the New Accord. Basel two is the culmination of a highly challenging project that was carried out by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and its member agencies over a period lasting more than five years. Following the publication of the first round of proposals in June nineteen ninety nine, two additional consultative packages were circulated in two thousand one and two thousand three for comments, involving industry representatives, supervisory agencies, central banks and other observers in all member countries. For many countries the next step will be the implementation of the Revised Framework by the end of two thousand six, according to the timetable developed by the BCBS. The deadline for the implementation of the most advanced approaches to risk measurement foreseen by the new framework is the end of two thousand seven. This Special Feature provides an overview of the comprehensive approach of the New Accord, placing emphasis on the innovative elements of Basel two and relevant aspects from a financial stability perspective. It concludes with an assessment of the key remaining challenges for a successful implementation of the New Accord. The household sector is one of the key sectors for financial stability analysis in EU and in the euro area for two main reasons. Firstly, the household sector accounts for a significant proportion of non-bank lending in terms of the stock of credit outstanding. At the end of June two thousand four, approximately thirty percent of loans granted to euro area residents were to households. By contrast, about twenty five percent were granted to non-financial corporations. This share has not changed very significantly since the start of EMU.
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100 years ago, there were 2,000 varieties of peaches, nearly 2,000 different varieties of plums and almost 800 named varieties. Today, only a fraction of those remain, and what is left is threatened disease and climate change. Those varieties that are threatened. A red-flesh peach brought then cultivated by Native. An apricot that was brought who came to work. And countless varieties of plums and were then brought by Italian. None of these varieties are indigenous. In fact, almost all of our fruit trees including apples and peaches and cherries. So more than just food, embedded within these fruit. It's the people who cared for who valued them so much as a connection to their home, and it's the way that they've passed. In many ways, these fruit are our story. And I was fortunate enough through an artwork that I created. The Tree of 40 Fruit is a single tree that grows 40 different. So that's peaches, plums, apricots, all growing on one tree. It's designed to be a normal-looking tree until spring, when it blossoms. And then in summer, I began the project. I wanted to change and to be honest, create this startling moment. Blossom in all these different colors and bear all of these different fruit. I created the Tree of 40 Fruit. I'll collect cuttings and then graft them. In fact, almost all because the seed of a fruit tree. So when we find a variety the way that we propagate it and putting it onto another -- which is kind of crazy to think that every single Macintosh apple that's been grafted over and over. But it also means that fruit trees. I've known about grafting. My great-grandfather made a living in Southeastern Pennsylvania. And although I never met him, any time anyone would mention his name, they were quick to note that he knew how to graft as if he had. I decided on the number 40 because it's found as not the quantifiable dozen but a number that's beyond counting. It's a bounty or a multitude. But the problem was that when I started, I couldn't find 40 different and this is despite the fact which, a century ago, was one of the leading. So as they were tearing out and old, vintage orchards, I would collect branches off them and graft them onto trees in my nursery. So this is what the Tree of 40 Fruit and this is what they look like. This is definitely not a sport. It takes a year to know it takes two to three years and it takes up to eight years. Each of the varieties grafted has a slightly different form. And I realized that by creating a timeline in relationship to each other, I can essentially shape or design. And this is how they appear during summer. They produce fruit from June. First is cherries, then apricots, Asian plums, nectarines and peaches, and I think I forgot one. Although it's an artwork as the project continues, it's been conservation. As I've been asked to create what I'll do is I'll research varieties that originated or were. I'll source them locally so that it becomes an agricultural history. And then the project got picked up online, which was horrifying and humbling. The horrifying part of images of the Tree of 40 Fruit. Which I was like, Why would. And the humbling part from pastors, from rabbis and priests who asked to use the tree. And then it became a meme -- and the answer to that question [Is your marriage. Like all good memes, this has led to an interview and as a college professor, like, that was the pinnacle but you never know who's listening to NPR. And several weeks after the NPR interview, I received an email. The Defense Advanced Research to come talk about and it's a conversation that quickly. You see, our national security. Now that we've created these monocultures that only grow a few, if something happens it can have a dramatic impact. And the key to maintaining is preserving our biodiversity. 100 years ago, this was done or a small stand of trees and grew varieties that were. These are plums from just one Tree. Several years into the project, I was told that I have one of the largest in the Eastern United States, which, as an artist. But in many ways, I discovered that the majority were heirloom varieties, so those that were grown before 1945, which is seen as the dawn. Several of the varieties dated back. And finding out how rare they were, I became obsessed and the vehicle for this became art. I would go into old, vintage orchards and I would save the bowl that possessed the original graft union. I started doing pressings to create herbarium specimens. I started to sequence the DNA. But ultimately, I set out through these copper-plate etchings. To tell the story of the George IV peach, which took root between someone walks by, tastes it, it becomes a major commercial because it tastes just that good. Then all but vanishes, because it doesn't ship well and it doesn't conform. But I realize that as a story. And in the telling of that story, it has to include the experience to smell and to taste those varieties. So I set out to create an orchard to make these fruit and have the aim of placing them that I could possibly find. Naturally, I started looking for an acre. which, in retrospect, and probably the reason why nobody. until eventually, four years later. So Governors Island is a former naval base that was given. And it opened up all of this land just a five-minute ferry ride. And they invited me to create a project that will bring back fruit varieties that haven't been grown. Currently in progress, The Open Orchard that possess 200 heirloom. So these are varieties that originated. Varieties like the Early Strawberry apple, which originated on 13th Street. Since a fruit tree. The Open Orchard will act or an archive of these fruit. Like the Tree of 40 Fruit, it will be experiential; it will also be symbolic. Most importantly, it's going to invite and to learn more about their food. Through the Tree of 40 Fruit, I've received thousands asking basic questions. With less than three percent having any direct tie to agriculture, the Open Orchard to come take part in public programming to learn how to graft, to grow, to take part in fresh eating to work with local chefs and to recreate centuries-old dishes that many of these varieties. Extending beyond the physical it will be a cookbook. It will be a field guide that talks about the characteristics their origin and their story. Growing up on a farm, and I didn't want anything to do with it. So I became an artist. But I have to admit that it's something. And I don't think that I'm the only one. 100 years ago, we were all much more the cultivation and we've been separated from that. The Open Orchard creates the opportunity not just to reconnect but a way for us to consider. Thank you.
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one hundred years ago, there were two thousand varieties of peaches, nearly two thousand different varieties of plums and almost eight hundred named varieties. Today, only a fraction of those remain, and what is left is threatened disease and climate change. Those varieties that are threatened. A red-flesh peach brought then cultivated by Native. An apricot that was brought who came to work. And countless varieties of plums and were then brought by Italian. None of these varieties are indigenous. In fact, almost all of our fruit trees including apples and peaches and cherries. So more than just food, embedded within these fruit. It's the people who cared for who valued them so much as a connection to their home, and it's the way that they've passed. In many ways, these fruit are our story. And I was fortunate enough through an artwork that I created. The Tree of forty Fruit is a single tree that grows forty different. So that's peaches, plums, apricots, all growing on one tree. It's designed to be a normal-looking tree until spring, when it blossoms. And then in summer, I began the project. I wanted to change and to be honest, create this startling moment. Blossom in all these different colors and bear all of these different fruit. I created the Tree of forty Fruit. I'll collect cuttings and then graft them. In fact, almost all because the seed of a fruit tree. So when we find a variety the way that we propagate it and putting it onto another -- which is kind of crazy to think that every single Macintosh apple that's been grafted over and over. But it also means that fruit trees. I've known about grafting. My great-grandfather made a living in Southeastern Pennsylvania. And although I never met him, any time anyone would mention his name, they were quick to note that he knew how to graft as if he had. I decided on the number forty because it's found as not the quantifiable dozen but a number that's beyond counting. It's a bounty or a multitude. But the problem was that when I started, I couldn't find forty different and this is despite the fact which, a century ago, was one of the leading. So as they were tearing out and old, vintage orchards, I would collect branches off them and graft them onto trees in my nursery. So this is what the Tree of forty Fruit and this is what they look like. This is definitely not a sport. It takes a year to know it takes two to three years and it takes up to eight years. Each of the varieties grafted has a slightly different form. And I realized that by creating a timeline in relationship to each other, I can essentially shape or design. And this is how they appear during summer. They produce fruit from June. First is cherries, then apricots, Asian plums, nectarines and peaches, and I think I forgot one. Although it's an artwork as the project continues, it's been conservation. As I've been asked to create what I'll do is I'll research varieties that originated or were. I'll source them locally so that it becomes an agricultural history. And then the project got picked up online, which was horrifying and humbling. The horrifying part of images of the Tree of forty Fruit. Which I was like, Why would. And the humbling part from pastors, from rabbis and priests who asked to use the tree. And then it became a meme -- and the answer to that question [Is your marriage. Like all good memes, this has led to an interview and as a college professor, like, that was the pinnacle but you never know who's listening to NPR. And several weeks after the NPR interview, I received an email. The Defense Advanced Research to come talk about and it's a conversation that quickly. You see, our national security. Now that we've created these monocultures that only grow a few, if something happens it can have a dramatic impact. And the key to maintaining is preserving our biodiversity. one hundred years ago, this was done or a small stand of trees and grew varieties that were. These are plums from just one Tree. Several years into the project, I was told that I have one of the largest in the Eastern United States, which, as an artist. But in many ways, I discovered that the majority were heirloom varieties, so those that were grown before nineteen forty-five, which is seen as the dawn. Several of the varieties dated back. And finding out how rare they were, I became obsessed and the vehicle for this became art. I would go into old, vintage orchards and I would save the bowl that possessed the original graft union. I started doing pressings to create herbarium specimens. I started to sequence the DNA. But ultimately, I set out through these copper-plate etchings. To tell the story of the George four peach, which took root between someone walks by, tastes it, it becomes a major commercial because it tastes just that good. Then all but vanishes, because it doesn't ship well and it doesn't conform. But I realize that as a story. And in the telling of that story, it has to include the experience to smell and to taste those varieties. So I set out to create an orchard to make these fruit and have the aim of placing them that I could possibly find. Naturally, I started looking for an acre. which, in retrospect, and probably the reason why nobody. until eventually, four years later. So Governors Island is a former naval base that was given. And it opened up all of this land just a five-minute ferry ride. And they invited me to create a project that will bring back fruit varieties that haven't been grown. Currently in progress, The Open Orchard that possess two hundred heirloom. So these are varieties that originated. Varieties like the Early Strawberry apple, which originated on thirteenth Street. Since a fruit tree. The Open Orchard will act or an archive of these fruit. Like the Tree of forty Fruit, it will be experiential; it will also be symbolic. Most importantly, it's going to invite and to learn more about their food. Through the Tree of forty Fruit, I've received thousands asking basic questions. With less than three percent having any direct tie to agriculture, the Open Orchard to come take part in public programming to learn how to graft, to grow, to take part in fresh eating to work with local chefs and to recreate centuries-old dishes that many of these varieties. Extending beyond the physical it will be a cookbook. It will be a field guide that talks about the characteristics their origin and their story. Growing up on a farm, and I didn't want anything to do with it. So I became an artist. But I have to admit that it's something. And I don't think that I'm the only one. One hundred years ago, we were all much more the cultivation and we've been separated from that. The Open Orchard creates the opportunity not just to reconnect but a way for us to consider. Thank you.
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While fake images were manually created long before software tools were available, generative models such as ours make the process easier. Fortunately, CNN-generated images currently have subtle flaws that allow detection, but improvements in generative models may make this more difficult. Generative models also reflect the biases in the datasets on which they are trained. As many large datasets are collected from the internet by automated systems, it can be difficult to remove these biases, especially when the images are unlabeled. If samples from generative models trained on these datasets proliferate throughout the internet, then these biases will only be reinforced further. On the other hand, diffusion models may be useful for data compression, which, as data becomes higher resolution and as global internet traffic increases, might be crucial to ensure accessibility of the internet to wide audiences. Our work might contribute to representation learning on unlabeled raw data for a large range of downstream tasks, from image classification to reinforcement learning, and diffusion models might also become viable for creative uses in art, photography, and music. Acknowledgments This work was supported by ONR PECASE and the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship under grant number DGE-1752814. Google's TensorFlow Research Cloud (TFRC) provided Cloud TPUs.
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While fake images were manually created long before software tools were available, generative models such as ours make the process easier. Fortunately, CNN-generated images currently have subtle flaws that allow detection, but improvements in generative models may make this more difficult. Generative models also reflect the biases in the datasets on which they are trained. As many large datasets are collected from the internet by automated systems, it can be difficult to remove these biases, especially when the images are unlabeled. If samples from generative models trained on these datasets proliferate throughout the internet, then these biases will only be reinforced further. On the other hand, diffusion models may be useful for data compression, which, as data becomes higher resolution and as global internet traffic increases, might be crucial to ensure accessibility of the internet to wide audiences. Our work might contribute to representation learning on unlabeled raw data for a large range of downstream tasks, from image classification to reinforcement learning, and diffusion models might also become viable for creative uses in art, photography, and music. Acknowledgments This work was supported by ONR PECASE and the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship under grant number DGE one million seven hundred fifty two thousand eight hundred fourteen. Google's TensorFlow Research Cloud (TFRC) provided Cloud TPUs.
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We experimentally showed the ease of training and sampling when using the Flow Matching framework, and in the future, we expect FM to open the door to allowing a multitude of probability paths (for example, non-isotropic Gaussians or more general kernels altogether). Section 8: Social responsibility Along side its many positive applications, image generation can also be used for harmful proposes. Using content-controlled training sets and image validation/classification can help reduce these uses. Furthermore, the energy demand for training large deep learning models is increasing at a rapid pace, focusing on methods that are able to train using less gradient updates or image throughput can lead to significant time and energy savings.
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We experimentally showed the ease of training and sampling when using the Flow Matching framework, and in the future, we expect FM to open the door to allowing a multitude of probability paths (for example, non-isotropic Gaussians or more general kernels altogether). Section eight: Social responsibility Along side its many positive applications, image generation can also be used for harmful proposes. Using content-controlled training sets and image validation/classification can help reduce these uses. Furthermore, the energy demand for training large deep learning models is increasing at a rapid pace, focusing on methods that are able to train using less gradient updates or image throughput can lead to significant time and energy savings.
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