Daily Papers

Social scientists increasingly use demographically stratified social media data to study the attitudes, beliefs, and behavior of the general public. To facilitate such analyses, we construct, validate, and release publicly the representative DADIT dataset of 30M tweets of 20k Italian Twitter users, along with their bios and profile pictures. We enrich the user data with high-quality labels for gender, age, and location. DADIT enables us to train and compare the performance of various state-of-the-art models for the prediction of the gender and age of social media users. In particular, we investigate if tweets contain valuable information for the task, since popular classifiers like M3 don't leverage them. Our best XLM-based classifier improves upon the commonly used competitor M3 by up to 53% F1. Especially for age prediction, classifiers profit from including tweets as features. We also confirm these findings on a German test set.

As AI chatbots become ubiquitous, voice interaction presents a compelling way to enable rapid, high-bandwidth communication for both semantic and social signals. This has driven research into Large Audio Models (LAMs) to power voice-native experiences. However, aligning LAM development with user goals requires a clear understanding of user needs and preferences to establish reliable progress metrics. This study addresses these challenges by introducing an interactive approach to evaluate LAMs and collecting 7,500 LAM interactions from 484 participants. Through topic modeling of user queries, we identify primary use cases for audio interfaces. We then analyze user preference rankings and qualitative feedback to determine which models best align with user needs. Finally, we evaluate how static benchmarks predict interactive performance - our analysis reveals no individual benchmark strongly correlates with interactive results (tau leq 0.33 for all benchmarks). While combining multiple coarse-grained features yields modest predictive power (R^2=0.30), only two out of twenty datasets on spoken question answering and age prediction show significantly positive correlations. This suggests a clear need to develop LAM evaluations that better correlate with user preferences.

When dealing with electro or magnetoencephalography records, many supervised prediction tasks are solved by working with covariance matrices to summarize the signals. Learning with these matrices requires using Riemanian geometry to account for their structure. In this paper, we propose a new method to deal with distributions of covariance matrices and demonstrate its computational efficiency on M/EEG multivariate time series. More specifically, we define a Sliced-Wasserstein distance between measures of symmetric positive definite matrices that comes with strong theoretical guarantees. Then, we take advantage of its properties and kernel methods to apply this distance to brain-age prediction from MEG data and compare it to state-of-the-art algorithms based on Riemannian geometry. Finally, we show that it is an efficient surrogate to the Wasserstein distance in domain adaptation for Brain Computer Interface applications.

This study presents Latent Diffusion Autoencoder (LDAE), a novel encoder-decoder diffusion-based framework for efficient and meaningful unsupervised learning in medical imaging, focusing on Alzheimer disease (AD) using brain MR from the ADNI database as a case study. Unlike conventional diffusion autoencoders operating in image space, LDAE applies the diffusion process in a compressed latent representation, improving computational efficiency and making 3D medical imaging representation learning tractable. To validate the proposed approach, we explore two key hypotheses: (i) LDAE effectively captures meaningful semantic representations on 3D brain MR associated with AD and ageing, and (ii) LDAE achieves high-quality image generation and reconstruction while being computationally efficient. Experimental results support both hypotheses: (i) linear-probe evaluations demonstrate promising diagnostic performance for AD (ROC-AUC: 90%, ACC: 84%) and age prediction (MAE: 4.1 years, RMSE: 5.2 years); (ii) the learned semantic representations enable attribute manipulation, yielding anatomically plausible modifications; (iii) semantic interpolation experiments show strong reconstruction of missing scans, with SSIM of 0.969 (MSE: 0.0019) for a 6-month gap. Even for longer gaps (24 months), the model maintains robust performance (SSIM > 0.93, MSE < 0.004), indicating an ability to capture temporal progression trends; (iv) compared to conventional diffusion autoencoders, LDAE significantly increases inference throughput (20x faster) while also enhancing reconstruction quality. These findings position LDAE as a promising framework for scalable medical imaging applications, with the potential to serve as a foundation model for medical image analysis. Code available at https://github.com/GabrieleLozupone/LDAE

Large Language Models (LLMs) have made significant progress in various downstream tasks, inspiring the development of Speech Understanding Language Models (SULMs) to enable comprehensive speech-based interactions. However, most advanced SULMs are developed by the industry, leveraging large-scale datasets and computational resources that are not readily available to the academic community. Moreover, the lack of transparency in training details creates additional barriers to further innovation. In this study, we present OSUM, an Open Speech Understanding Model designed to explore the potential of training SLUMs under constrained academic resources. The OSUM model combines a Whisper encoder with a Qwen2 LLM and supports a wide range of speech tasks, including speech recognition (ASR), speech recognition with timestamps (SRWT), vocal event detection (VED), speech emotion recognition (SER), speaking style recognition (SSR), speaker gender classification (SGC), speaker age prediction (SAP), and speech-to-text chat (STTC). By employing an ASR+X training strategy, OSUM achieves efficient and stable multi-task training by simultaneously optimizing ASR alongside target tasks. Beyond delivering strong performance, OSUM emphasizes transparency by providing openly available data preparation and training methodologies, offering valuable insights and practical guidance for the academic community. By doing so, we aim to accelerate research and innovation in advanced SULM technologies.

We report on the curation of several publicly available datasets for age and gender prediction. Furthermore, we present experiments to predict age and gender with models based on a pre-trained wav2vec 2.0. Depending on the dataset, we achieve an MAE between 7.1 years and 10.8 years for age, and at least 91.1% ACC for gender (female, male, child). Compared to a modelling approach built on handcrafted features, our proposed system shows an improvement of 9% UAR for age and 4% UAR for gender. To make our findings reproducible, we release the best performing model to the community as well as the sample lists of the data splits.

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown great potential across a wide range of legal tasks. Despite these advances, mitigating hallucination remains a significant challenge, with state-of-the-art LLMs still frequently generating incorrect legal references. In this paper, we focus on the problem of legal citation prediction within the Australian law context, where correctly identifying and citing relevant legislations or precedents is critical. We compare several approaches: prompting general purpose and law-specialised LLMs, retrieval-only pipelines with both generic and domain-specific embeddings, task-specific instruction-tuning of LLMs, and hybrid strategies that combine LLMs with retrieval augmentation, query expansion, or voting ensembles. Our findings indicate that domain-specific pre-training alone is insufficient for achieving satisfactory citation accuracy even after law-specialised pre-training. In contrast, instruction tuning on our task-specific dataset dramatically boosts performance reaching the best results across all settings. We also highlight that database granularity along with the type of embeddings play a critical role in the performance of retrieval systems. Among retrieval-based approaches, hybrid methods consistently outperform retrieval-only setups, and among these, ensemble voting delivers the best result by combining the predictive quality of instruction-tuned LLMs with the retrieval system.

With the increasing volume of high-frequency data in the information age, both challenges and opportunities arise in the prediction of stock volatility. On one hand, the outcome of prediction using tradition method combining stock technical and macroeconomic indicators still leaves room for improvement; on the other hand, macroeconomic indicators and peoples' search record on those search engines affecting their interested topics will intuitively have an impact on the stock volatility. For the convenience of assessment of the influence of these indicators, macroeconomic indicators and stock technical indicators are then grouped into objective factors, while Baidu search indices implying people's interested topics are defined as subjective factors. To align different frequency data, we introduce GARCH-MIDAS model. After mixing all the above data, we then feed them into Transformer model as part of the training data. Our experiments show that this model outperforms the baselines in terms of mean square error. The adaption of both types of data under Transformer model significantly reduces the mean square error from 1.00 to 0.86.

In today's digital age, conspiracies and information campaigns can emerge rapidly and erode social and democratic cohesion. While recent deep learning approaches have made progress in modeling engagement through language and propagation models, they struggle with irregularly sampled data and early trajectory assessment. We present IC-Mamba, a novel state space model that forecasts social media engagement by modeling interval-censored data with integrated temporal embeddings. Our model excels at predicting engagement patterns within the crucial first 15-30 minutes of posting (RMSE 0.118-0.143), enabling rapid assessment of content reach. By incorporating interval-censored modeling into the state space framework, IC-Mamba captures fine-grained temporal dynamics of engagement growth, achieving a 4.72% improvement over state-of-the-art across multiple engagement metrics (likes, shares, comments, and emojis). Our experiments demonstrate IC-Mamba's effectiveness in forecasting both post-level dynamics and broader narrative patterns (F1 0.508-0.751 for narrative-level predictions). The model maintains strong predictive performance across extended time horizons, successfully forecasting opinion-level engagement up to 28 days ahead using observation windows of 3-10 days. These capabilities enable earlier identification of potentially problematic content, providing crucial lead time for designing and implementing countermeasures. Code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/ic-mamba. An interactive dashboard demonstrating our results is available at: https://ic-mamba.behavioral-ds.science.

Interrogating the evolution of biological changes at early stages of life requires longitudinal profiling of molecules, such as DNA methylation, which can be challenging with children. We introduce a probabilistic and longitudinal machine learning framework based on multi-mean Gaussian processes (GPs), accounting for individual and gene correlations across time. This method provides future predictions of DNA methylation status at different individual ages while accounting for uncertainty. Our model is trained on a birth cohort of children with methylation profiled at ages 0-4, and we demonstrated that the status of methylation sites for each child can be accurately predicted at ages 5-7. We show that methylation profiles predicted by multi-mean GPs can be used to estimate other phenotypes, such as epigenetic age, and enable comparison to other health measures of interest. This approach encourages epigenetic studies to move towards longitudinal design for investigating epigenetic changes during development, ageing and disease progression.

PURPOSE: Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) entails high morbidity and mortality rates. Convolutional neural networks (CNN), a form of deep learning, are capable of generating highly accurate predictions from imaging data. Our objective was to predict mortality in SAH patients by processing the initial CT scan on a CNN based algorithm. METHODS: Retrospective multicentric study of a consecutive cohort of patients with SAH between 2011-2022. Demographic, clinical and radiological variables were analyzed. Pre-processed baseline CT scan images were used as the input for training a CNN using AUCMEDI Framework. Our model's architecture leverages the DenseNet-121 structure, employing transfer learning principles. The output variable was mortality in the first three months. Performance of the model was evaluated by statistical parameters conventionally used in studies involving artificial intelligence methods. RESULTS: Images from 219 patients were processed, 175 for training and validation of the CNN and 44 for its evaluation. 52%(115/219) of patients were female, and the median age was 58(SD=13.06) years. 18.5%(39/219) were idiopathic SAH. Mortality rate was 28.5%(63/219). The model showed good accuracy at predicting mortality in SAH patients exclusively using the images of the initial CT scan (Accuracy=74%, F1=75% and AUC=82%). CONCLUSION: Modern image processing techniques based on AI and CNN make possible to predict mortality in SAH patients with high accuracy using CT scan images as the only input. These models might be optimized by including more data and patients resulting in better training, development and performance on tasks which are beyond the skills of conventional clinical knowledge.

In this paper, we demonstrated the benefit of using pre-trained model to extract acoustic embedding to jointly predict (multitask learning) three tasks: emotion, age, and native country. The pre-trained model was trained with wav2vec 2.0 large robust model on the speech emotion corpus. The emotion and age tasks were regression problems, while country prediction was a classification task. A single harmonic mean from three metrics was used to evaluate the performance of multitask learning. The classifier was a linear network with two independent layers and shared layers, including the output layers. This study explores multitask learning on different acoustic features (including the acoustic embedding extracted from a model trained on an affective speech dataset), seed numbers, batch sizes, and normalizations for predicting paralinguistic information from speech.

The evolution of Neural Machine Translation (NMT) has been significantly influenced by six core challenges (Koehn and Knowles, 2017), which have acted as benchmarks for progress in this field. This study revisits these challenges, offering insights into their ongoing relevance in the context of advanced Large Language Models (LLMs): domain mismatch, amount of parallel data, rare word prediction, translation of long sentences, attention model as word alignment, and sub-optimal beam search. Our empirical findings indicate that LLMs effectively lessen the reliance on parallel data for major languages in the pretraining phase. Additionally, the LLM-based translation system significantly enhances the translation of long sentences that contain approximately 80 words and shows the capability to translate documents of up to 512 words. However, despite these significant improvements, the challenges of domain mismatch and prediction of rare words persist. While the challenges of word alignment and beam search, specifically associated with NMT, may not apply to LLMs, we identify three new challenges for LLMs in translation tasks: inference efficiency, translation of low-resource languages in the pretraining phase, and human-aligned evaluation. The datasets and models are released at https://github.com/pangjh3/LLM4MT.

In recent years, vision transformers have been introduced into face recognition and analysis and have achieved performance breakthroughs. However, most previous methods generally train a single model or an ensemble of models to perform the desired task, which ignores the synergy among different tasks and fails to achieve improved prediction accuracy, increased data efficiency, and reduced training time. This paper presents a multi-purpose algorithm for simultaneous face recognition, facial expression recognition, age estimation, and face attribute estimation (40 attributes including gender) based on a single Swin Transformer. Our design, the SwinFace, consists of a single shared backbone together with a subnet for each set of related tasks. To address the conflicts among multiple tasks and meet the different demands of tasks, a Multi-Level Channel Attention (MLCA) module is integrated into each task-specific analysis subnet, which can adaptively select the features from optimal levels and channels to perform the desired tasks. Extensive experiments show that the proposed model has a better understanding of the face and achieves excellent performance for all tasks. Especially, it achieves 90.97% accuracy on RAF-DB and 0.22 epsilon-error on CLAP2015, which are state-of-the-art results on facial expression recognition and age estimation respectively. The code and models will be made publicly available at https://github.com/lxq1000/SwinFace.

Recent studies on Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) reveal that the initial node representations (i.e., the node representations before the first-time graph convolution) largely affect the final model performance. However, when learning the initial representation for a node, most existing work linearly combines the embeddings of node features, without considering the interactions among the features (or feature embeddings). We argue that when the node features are categorical, e.g., in many real-world applications like user profiling and recommender system, feature interactions usually carry important signals for predictive analytics. Ignoring them will result in suboptimal initial node representation and thus weaken the effectiveness of the follow-up graph convolution. In this paper, we propose a new GCN model named CatGCN, which is tailored for graph learning when the node features are categorical. Specifically, we integrate two ways of explicit interaction modeling into the learning of initial node representation, i.e., local interaction modeling on each pair of node features and global interaction modeling on an artificial feature graph. We then refine the enhanced initial node representations with the neighborhood aggregation-based graph convolution. We train CatGCN in an end-to-end fashion and demonstrate it on semi-supervised node classification. Extensive experiments on three tasks of user profiling (the prediction of user age, city, and purchase level) from Tencent and Alibaba datasets validate the effectiveness of CatGCN, especially the positive effect of performing feature interaction modeling before graph convolution.

Vision-language models (VLMs) show great promise for 3D scene understanding but are mainly applied to indoor spaces or autonomous driving, focusing on low-level tasks like segmentation. This work expands their use to urban-scale environments by leveraging 3D reconstructions from multi-view aerial imagery. We propose OpenCity3D, an approach that addresses high-level tasks, such as population density estimation, building age classification, property price prediction, crime rate assessment, and noise pollution evaluation. Our findings highlight OpenCity3D's impressive zero-shot and few-shot capabilities, showcasing adaptability to new contexts. This research establishes a new paradigm for language-driven urban analytics, enabling applications in planning, policy, and environmental monitoring. See our project page: opencity3d.github.io

A number of computer vision deep regression approaches report improved results when adding a classification loss to the regression loss. Here, we explore why this is useful in practice and when it is beneficial. To do so, we start from precisely controlled dataset variations and data samplings and find that the effect of adding a classification loss is the most pronounced for regression with imbalanced data. We explain these empirical findings by formalizing the relation between the balanced and imbalanced regression losses. Finally, we show that our findings hold on two real imbalanced image datasets for depth estimation (NYUD2-DIR), and age estimation (IMDB-WIKI-DIR), and on the problem of imbalanced video progress prediction (Breakfast). Our main takeaway is: for a regression task, if the data sampling is imbalanced, then add a classification loss.

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction, which aims to predict the probability of a user clicking on an ad or an item, is critical to many online applications such as online advertising and recommender systems. The problem is very challenging since (1) the input features (e.g., the user id, user age, item id, item category) are usually sparse and high-dimensional, and (2) an effective prediction relies on high-order combinatorial features (a.k.a. cross features), which are very time-consuming to hand-craft by domain experts and are impossible to be enumerated. Therefore, there have been efforts in finding low-dimensional representations of the sparse and high-dimensional raw features and their meaningful combinations. In this paper, we propose an effective and efficient method called the AutoInt to automatically learn the high-order feature interactions of input features. Our proposed algorithm is very general, which can be applied to both numerical and categorical input features. Specifically, we map both the numerical and categorical features into the same low-dimensional space. Afterwards, a multi-head self-attentive neural network with residual connections is proposed to explicitly model the feature interactions in the low-dimensional space. With different layers of the multi-head self-attentive neural networks, different orders of feature combinations of input features can be modeled. The whole model can be efficiently fit on large-scale raw data in an end-to-end fashion. Experimental results on four real-world datasets show that our proposed approach not only outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches for prediction but also offers good explainability. Code is available at: https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/RecommenderSystems.

Speaker profiling, which aims to estimate speaker characteristics such as age and height, has a wide range of applications inforensics, recommendation systems, etc. In this work, we propose a semisupervised learning approach to mitigate the issue of low training data for speaker profiling. This is done by utilizing external corpus with speaker information to train a better representation which can help to improve the speaker profiling systems. Specifically, besides the standard supervised learning path, the proposed framework has two more paths: (1) an unsupervised speaker representation learning path that helps to capture the speaker information; (2) a consistency training path that helps to improve the robustness of the system by enforcing it to produce similar predictions for utterances of the same speaker.The proposed approach is evaluated on the TIMIT and NISP datasets for age, height, and gender estimation, while the Librispeech is used as the unsupervised external corpus. Trained both on single-task and multi-task settings, our approach was able to achieve state-of-the-art results on age estimation on the TIMIT Test dataset with Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) of6.8 and 7.4 years and Mean Absolute Error(MAE) of 4.8 and5.0 years for male and female speakers respectively.

The face is a rich source of information that can be utilized to infer a person's biological age, sex, phenotype, genetic defects, and health status. All of these factors are relevant for predicting an individual's remaining lifespan. In this study, we collected a dataset of over 24,000 images (from Wikidata/Wikipedia) of individuals who died of natural causes, along with the number of years between when the image was taken and when the person passed away. We made this dataset publicly available. We fine-tuned multiple Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) models on this data, at best achieving a mean absolute error of 8.3 years in the validation data using VGGFace. However, the model's performance diminishes when the person was younger at the time of the image. To demonstrate the potential applications of our remaining lifespan model, we present examples of using it to estimate the average loss of life (in years) due to the COVID-19 pandemic and to predict the increase in life expectancy that might result from a health intervention such as weight loss. Additionally, we discuss the ethical considerations associated with such models.

Image-based age estimation aims to predict a person's age from facial images. It is used in a variety of real-world applications. Although end-to-end deep models have achieved impressive results for age estimation on benchmark datasets, their performance in-the-wild still leaves much room for improvement due to the challenges caused by large variations in head pose, facial expressions, and occlusions. To address this issue, we propose a simple yet effective method to explicitly incorporate facial semantics into age estimation, so that the model would learn to correctly focus on the most informative facial components from unaligned facial images regardless of head pose and non-rigid deformation. To this end, we design a face parsing-based network to learn semantic information at different scales and a novel face parsing attention module to leverage these semantic features for age estimation. To evaluate our method on in-the-wild data, we also introduce a new challenging large-scale benchmark called IMDB-Clean. This dataset is created by semi-automatically cleaning the noisy IMDB-WIKI dataset using a constrained clustering method. Through comprehensive experiment on IMDB-Clean and other benchmark datasets, under both intra-dataset and cross-dataset evaluation protocols, we show that our method consistently outperforms all existing age estimation methods and achieves a new state-of-the-art performance. To the best of our knowledge, our work presents the first attempt of leveraging face parsing attention to achieve semantic-aware age estimation, which may be inspiring to other high level facial analysis tasks. Code and data are available on https://github.com/ibug-group/fpage.

Over the past decade, machine learning has revolutionized computers' ability to analyze text through flexible computational models. Due to their structural similarity to written language, transformer-based architectures have also shown promise as tools to make sense of a range of multi-variate sequences from protein-structures, music, electronic health records to weather-forecasts. We can also represent human lives in a way that shares this structural similarity to language. From one perspective, lives are simply sequences of events: People are born, visit the pediatrician, start school, move to a new location, get married, and so on. Here, we exploit this similarity to adapt innovations from natural language processing to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on arguably the most comprehensive registry data in existence, available for an entire nation of more than six million individuals across decades. Our data include information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address, and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to identify new potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes and associated possibilities for personalized interventions.

This paper introduces a novel dataset to help researchers evaluate their computer vision and audio models for accuracy across a diverse set of age, genders, apparent skin tones and ambient lighting conditions. Our dataset is composed of 3,011 subjects and contains over 45,000 videos, with an average of 15 videos per person. The videos were recorded in multiple U.S. states with a diverse set of adults in various age, gender and apparent skin tone groups. A key feature is that each subject agreed to participate for their likenesses to be used. Additionally, our age and gender annotations are provided by the subjects themselves. A group of trained annotators labeled the subjects' apparent skin tone using the Fitzpatrick skin type scale. Moreover, annotations for videos recorded in low ambient lighting are also provided. As an application to measure robustness of predictions across certain attributes, we provide a comprehensive study on the top five winners of the DeepFake Detection Challenge (DFDC). Experimental evaluation shows that the winning models are less performant on some specific groups of people, such as subjects with darker skin tones and thus may not generalize to all people. In addition, we also evaluate the state-of-the-art apparent age and gender classification methods. Our experiments provides a thorough analysis on these models in terms of fair treatment of people from various backgrounds.

Legal judgment prediction is the task of automatically predicting the outcome of a court case, given a text describing the case's facts. Previous work on using neural models for this task has focused on Chinese; only feature-based models (e.g., using bags of words and topics) have been considered in English. We release a new English legal judgment prediction dataset, containing cases from the European Court of Human Rights. We evaluate a broad variety of neural models on the new dataset, establishing strong baselines that surpass previous feature-based models in three tasks: (1) binary violation classification; (2) multi-label classification; (3) case importance prediction. We also explore if models are biased towards demographic information via data anonymization. As a side-product, we propose a hierarchical version of BERT, which bypasses BERT's length limitation.

With the increasing availability of wearable devices, photoplethysmography (PPG) has emerged as a promising non-invasive tool for monitoring human hemodynamics. We propose a deep learning framework to estimate vascular age (AI-vascular age) from PPG signals, incorporating a distribution-aware loss to address biases caused by imbalanced data. The model was developed using data from the UK Biobank (UKB), with 98,672 participants in the development cohort and 113,559 participants (144,683 data pairs) for clinical evaluation. After adjusting for key confounders, individuals with a vascular age gap (AI-vascular age minus calendar age) exceeding 9 years had a significantly higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) (HR = 2.37, p < 0.005) and secondary outcomes, including diabetes (HR = 2.69, p < 0.005), hypertension (HR = 2.88, p < 0.005), coronary heart disease (HR = 2.20, p < 0.005), heart failure (HR = 2.15, p < 0.005), myocardial infarction (HR = 2.51, p < 0.005), stroke (HR = 2.55, p < 0.005), and all-cause mortality (HR = 2.51, p < 0.005). Conversely, participants with a vascular age gap below -9 years exhibited a significantly lower incidence of these outcomes. We further evaluated the longitudinal applicability of AI-vascular age using serial PPG data from the UKB, demonstrating its value in risk stratification by leveraging AI-vascular age at two distinct time points to predict future MACCE incidence. External validation was performed on a MIMIC-III-derived cohort (n = 2,343), where each one-year increase in vascular age gap was significantly associated with elevated in-hospital mortality risk (OR = 1.02, p < 0.005). In conclusion, our study establishes AI-vascular age as a novel, non-invasive digital biomarker for cardiovascular health assessment.

While voice technologies increasingly serve aging populations, current systems exhibit significant performance gaps due to inadequate training data capturing elderly-specific vocal characteristics like presbyphonia and dialectal variations. The limited data available on super-aged individuals in existing elderly speech datasets, coupled with overly simple recording styles and annotation dimensions, exacerbates this issue. To address the critical scarcity of speech data from individuals aged 75 and above, we introduce SeniorTalk, a carefully annotated Chinese spoken dialogue dataset. This dataset contains 55.53 hours of speech from 101 natural conversations involving 202 participants, ensuring a strategic balance across gender, region, and age. Through detailed annotation across multiple dimensions, it can support a wide range of speech tasks. We perform extensive experiments on speaker verification, speaker diarization, speech recognition, and speech editing tasks, offering crucial insights for the development of speech technologies targeting this age group.

Name-based gender prediction has traditionally categorized individuals as either female or male based on their names, using a binary classification system. That binary approach can be problematic in the cases of gender-neutral names that do not align with any one gender, among other reasons. Relying solely on binary gender categories without recognizing gender-neutral names can reduce the inclusiveness of gender prediction tasks. We introduce an additional gender category, i.e., "neutral", to study and address potential gender biases in Large Language Models (LLMs). We evaluate the performance of several foundational and large language models in predicting gender based on first names only. Additionally, we investigate the impact of adding birth years to enhance the accuracy of gender prediction, accounting for shifting associations between names and genders over time. Our findings indicate that most LLMs identify male and female names with high accuracy (over 80%) but struggle with gender-neutral names (under 40%), and the accuracy of gender prediction is higher for English-based first names than non-English names. The experimental results show that incorporating the birth year does not improve the overall accuracy of gender prediction, especially for names with evolving gender associations. We recommend using caution when applying LLMs for gender identification in downstream tasks, particularly when dealing with non-binary gender labels.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

Deep Learning (DL) in neuroimaging has become increasingly relevant for detecting neurological conditions and neurodegenerative disorders. One of the most predominant biomarkers in neuroimaging is represented by brain age, which has been shown to be a good indicator for different conditions, such as Alzheimer's Disease. Using brain age for weakly supervised pre-training of DL models in transfer learning settings has also recently shown promising results, especially when dealing with data scarcity of different conditions. On the other hand, anatomical information of brain MRIs (e.g. cortical thickness) can provide important information for learning good representations that can be transferred to many downstream tasks. In this work, we propose AnatCL, an anatomical foundation model for brain MRIs that i.) leverages anatomical information in a weakly contrastive learning approach, and ii.) achieves state-of-the-art performances across many different downstream tasks. To validate our approach we consider 12 different downstream tasks for the diagnosis of different conditions such as Alzheimer's Disease, autism spectrum disorder, and schizophrenia. Furthermore, we also target the prediction of 10 different clinical assessment scores using structural MRI data. Our findings show that incorporating anatomical information during pre-training leads to more robust and generalizable representations. Pre-trained models can be found at: https://github.com/EIDOSLAB/AnatCL.

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

Age and gender recognition in the wild is a highly challenging task: apart from the variability of conditions, pose complexities, and varying image quality, there are cases where the face is partially or completely occluded. We present MiVOLO (Multi Input VOLO), a straightforward approach for age and gender estimation using the latest vision transformer. Our method integrates both tasks into a unified dual input/output model, leveraging not only facial information but also person image data. This improves the generalization ability of our model and enables it to deliver satisfactory results even when the face is not visible in the image. To evaluate our proposed model, we conduct experiments on four popular benchmarks and achieve state-of-the-art performance, while demonstrating real-time processing capabilities. Additionally, we introduce a novel benchmark based on images from the Open Images Dataset. The ground truth annotations for this benchmark have been meticulously generated by human annotators, resulting in high accuracy answers due to the smart aggregation of votes. Furthermore, we compare our model's age recognition performance with human-level accuracy and demonstrate that it significantly outperforms humans across a majority of age ranges. Finally, we grant public access to our models, along with the code for validation and inference. In addition, we provide extra annotations for used datasets and introduce our new benchmark.

Age estimation is a classic learning problem in computer vision. Many larger and deeper CNNs have been proposed with promising performance, such as AlexNet, VggNet, GoogLeNet and ResNet. However, these models are not practical for the embedded/mobile devices. Recently, MobileNets and ShuffleNets have been proposed to reduce the number of parameters, yielding lightweight models. However, their representation has been weakened because of the adoption of depth-wise separable convolution. In this work, we investigate the limits of compact model for small-scale image and propose an extremely Compact yet efficient Cascade Context-based Age Estimation model(C3AE). This model possesses only 1/9 and 1/2000 parameters compared with MobileNets/ShuffleNets and VggNet, while achieves competitive performance. In particular, we re-define age estimation problem by two-points representation, which is implemented by a cascade model. Moreover, to fully utilize the facial context information, multi-branch CNN network is proposed to aggregate multi-scale context. Experiments are carried out on three age estimation datasets. The state-of-the-art performance on compact model has been achieved with a relatively large margin.

"If I provide you a face image of mine (without telling you the actual age when I took the picture) and a large amount of face images that I crawled (containing labeled faces of different ages but not necessarily paired), can you show me what I would look like when I am 80 or what I was like when I was 5?" The answer is probably a "No." Most existing face aging works attempt to learn the transformation between age groups and thus would require the paired samples as well as the labeled query image. In this paper, we look at the problem from a generative modeling perspective such that no paired samples is required. In addition, given an unlabeled image, the generative model can directly produce the image with desired age attribute. We propose a conditional adversarial autoencoder (CAAE) that learns a face manifold, traversing on which smooth age progression and regression can be realized simultaneously. In CAAE, the face is first mapped to a latent vector through a convolutional encoder, and then the vector is projected to the face manifold conditional on age through a deconvolutional generator. The latent vector preserves personalized face features (i.e., personality) and the age condition controls progression vs. regression. Two adversarial networks are imposed on the encoder and generator, respectively, forcing to generate more photo-realistic faces. Experimental results demonstrate the appealing performance and flexibility of the proposed framework by comparing with the state-of-the-art and ground truth.

Labeled Faces in the Wild (LFW) database has been widely utilized as the benchmark of unconstrained face verification and due to big data driven machine learning methods, the performance on the database approaches nearly 100%. However, we argue that this accuracy may be too optimistic because of some limiting factors. Besides different poses, illuminations, occlusions and expressions, cross-age face is another challenge in face recognition. Different ages of the same person result in large intra-class variations and aging process is unavoidable in real world face verification. However, LFW does not pay much attention on it. Thereby we construct a Cross-Age LFW (CALFW) which deliberately searches and selects 3,000 positive face pairs with age gaps to add aging process intra-class variance. Negative pairs with same gender and race are also selected to reduce the influence of attribute difference between positive/negative pairs and achieve face verification instead of attributes classification. We evaluate several metric learning and deep learning methods on the new database. Compared to the accuracy on LFW, the accuracy drops about 10%-17% on CALFW.

Human face aging is irreversible process causing changes in human face characteristics such us hair whitening, muscles drop and wrinkles. Due to the importance of human face aging in biometrics systems, age estimation became an attractive area for researchers. This paper presents a novel method to estimate the age from face images, using binarized statistical image features (BSIF) and local binary patterns (LBP)histograms as features performed by support vector regression (SVR) and kernel ridge regression (KRR). We applied our method on FG-NET and PAL datasets. Our proposed method has shown superiority to that of the state-of-the-art methods when using the whole PAL database.

The rapidly developing field of large multimodal models (LMMs) has led to the emergence of diverse models with remarkable capabilities. However, existing benchmarks fail to comprehensively, objectively and accurately evaluate whether LMMs align with the diverse needs of humans in real-world scenarios. To bridge this gap, we propose the Multi-Dimensional Insights (MDI) benchmark, which includes over 500 images covering six common scenarios of human life. Notably, the MDI-Benchmark offers two significant advantages over existing evaluations: (1) Each image is accompanied by two types of questions: simple questions to assess the model's understanding of the image, and complex questions to evaluate the model's ability to analyze and reason beyond basic content. (2) Recognizing that people of different age groups have varying needs and perspectives when faced with the same scenario, our benchmark stratifies questions into three age categories: young people, middle-aged people, and older people. This design allows for a detailed assessment of LMMs' capabilities in meeting the preferences and needs of different age groups. With MDI-Benchmark, the strong model like GPT-4o achieve 79% accuracy on age-related tasks, indicating that existing LMMs still have considerable room for improvement in addressing real-world applications. Looking ahead, we anticipate that the MDI-Benchmark will open new pathways for aligning real-world personalization in LMMs. The MDI-Benchmark data and evaluation code are available at https://mdi-benchmark.github.io/

Disease risk prediction has attracted increasing attention in the field of modern healthcare, especially with the latest advances in artificial intelligence (AI). Electronic health records (EHRs), which contain heterogeneous patient information, are widely used in disease risk prediction tasks. One challenge of applying AI models for risk prediction lies in generating interpretable evidence to support the prediction results while retaining the prediction ability. In order to address this problem, we propose the method of jointly embedding words and labels whereby attention modules learn the weights of words from medical notes according to their relevance to the names of risk prediction labels. This approach boosts interpretability by employing an attention mechanism and including the names of prediction tasks in the model. However, its application is only limited to the handling of textual inputs such as medical notes. In this paper, we propose a label dependent attention model LDAM to 1) improve the interpretability by exploiting Clinical-BERT (a biomedical language model pre-trained on a large clinical corpus) to encode biomedically meaningful features and labels jointly; 2) extend the idea of joint embedding to the processing of time-series data, and develop a multi-modal learning framework for integrating heterogeneous information from medical notes and time-series health status indicators. To demonstrate our method, we apply LDAM to the MIMIC-III dataset to predict different disease risks. We evaluate our method both quantitatively and qualitatively. Specifically, the predictive power of LDAM will be shown, and case studies will be carried out to illustrate its interpretability.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Facial aging is a complex process, highly dependent on multiple factors like gender, ethnicity, lifestyle, etc., making it extremely challenging to learn a global aging prior to predict aging for any individual accurately. Existing techniques often produce realistic and plausible aging results, but the re-aged images often do not resemble the person's appearance at the target age and thus need personalization. In many practical applications of virtual aging, e.g. VFX in movies and TV shows, access to a personal photo collection of the user depicting aging in a small time interval (20sim40 years) is often available. However, naive attempts to personalize global aging techniques on personal photo collections often fail. Thus, we propose MyTimeMachine (MyTM), which combines a global aging prior with a personal photo collection (using as few as 50 images) to learn a personalized age transformation. We introduce a novel Adapter Network that combines personalized aging features with global aging features and generates a re-aged image with StyleGAN2. We also introduce three loss functions to personalize the Adapter Network with personalized aging loss, extrapolation regularization, and adaptive w-norm regularization. Our approach can also be extended to videos, achieving high-quality, identity-preserving, and temporally consistent aging effects that resemble actual appearances at target ages, demonstrating its superiority over state-of-the-art approaches.

ChatGPT is a large language model (LLM) created by OpenAI that has been carefully trained on a large amount of data. It has revolutionized the field of natural language processing (NLP) and has pushed the boundaries of LLM capabilities. ChatGPT has played a pivotal role in enabling widespread public interaction with generative artificial intelligence (GAI) on a large scale. It has also sparked research interest in developing similar technologies and investigating their applications and implications. In this paper, our primary goal is to provide a concise survey on the current lines of research on ChatGPT and its evolution. We considered both the glass box and black box views of ChatGPT, encompassing the components and foundational elements of the technology, as well as its applications, impacts, and implications. The glass box approach focuses on understanding the inner workings of the technology, and the black box approach embraces it as a complex system, and thus examines its inputs, outputs, and effects. This paves the way for a comprehensive exploration of the technology and provides a road map for further research and experimentation. We also lay out essential foundational literature on LLMs and GAI in general and their connection with ChatGPT. This overview sheds light on existing and missing research lines in the emerging field of LLMs, benefiting both public users and developers. Furthermore, the paper delves into the broad spectrum of applications and significant concerns in fields such as education, research, healthcare, finance, etc.

The fields of both Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) have achieved remarkable results over the past years. In NLP, especially Large Language Models (LLMs) have experienced a rapid series of breakthroughs very recently. We envision that the two fields can radically push the boundaries of each other through tight integration. To showcase this vision, we explore the potential of a symbiotic relationship between AutoML and LLMs, shedding light on how they can benefit each other. In particular, we investigate both the opportunities to enhance AutoML approaches with LLMs from different perspectives and the challenges of leveraging AutoML to further improve LLMs. To this end, we survey existing work, and we critically assess risks. We strongly believe that the integration of the two fields has the potential to disrupt both fields, NLP and AutoML. By highlighting conceivable synergies, but also risks, we aim to foster further exploration at the intersection of AutoML and LLMs.

We present the Hubble Missing Globular Cluster Survey (MGCS), a Hubble Space Telescope treasury programme dedicated to the observation of all the kinematically confirmed Milky Way globular clusters that missed previous Hubble imaging. After introducing the aims of the programme and describing its target clusters, we showcase the first results of the survey. These are related to two clusters, one located at the edge of the Milky Way Bulge and observed in optical bands, namely ESO452-11, and one located in the Galactic Disc observed in the near-IR, namely 2MASS-GC01. For both clusters, the deep colour-magnitude diagrams obtained from the MGCS observations reach several magnitudes below their main-sequence turn-off, and thus enable the first precise estimate of their age. By using the methods developed within the CARMA project, we find ESO452-11 to be an old, metal-intermediate globular cluster, with {rm [M/H]}simeq-0.80^{+0.08}_{-0.11} and an age of {rm t}=13.59^{+0.48}_{-0.69} Gyr. Its location on the age-metallicity relation makes it consistent with an in-situ origin, in agreement with its dynamical properties. On the other hand, the results for 2MASS-GC01 highlight it as a young, metal-intermediate cluster, with an age of {rm t}=7.22^{+0.93}_{-1.11} Gyr at {rm [M/H]}=-0.73^{+0.06}_{-0.06}. This is the first ever age estimate for this extremely extincted cluster, and indicates it either as the youngest globular known to date, or as a massive and compact open cluster, which is consistent with its almost circular, disc-like orbit.

This paper examines the profound challenges that transformative advances in AI towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will pose for economists and economic policymakers. I examine how the Age of AI will revolutionize the basic structure of our economies by diminishing the role of labor, leading to unprecedented productivity gains but raising concerns about job disruption, income distribution, and the value of education and human capital. I explore what roles may remain for labor post-AGI, and which production factors will grow in importance. The paper then identifies eight key challenges for economic policy in the Age of AI: (1) inequality and income distribution, (2) education and skill development, (3) social and political stability, (4) macroeconomic policy, (5) antitrust and market regulation, (6) intellectual property, (7) environmental implications, and (8) global AI governance. It concludes by emphasizing how economists can contribute to a better understanding of these challenges.

Misinformation such as fake news and rumors is a serious threat on information ecosystems and public trust. The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) has great potential to reshape the landscape of combating misinformation. Generally, LLMs can be a double-edged sword in the fight. On the one hand, LLMs bring promising opportunities for combating misinformation due to their profound world knowledge and strong reasoning abilities. Thus, one emergent question is: how to utilize LLMs to combat misinformation? On the other hand, the critical challenge is that LLMs can be easily leveraged to generate deceptive misinformation at scale. Then, another important question is: how to combat LLM-generated misinformation? In this paper, we first systematically review the history of combating misinformation before the advent of LLMs. Then we illustrate the current efforts and present an outlook for these two fundamental questions respectively. The goal of this survey paper is to facilitate the progress of utilizing LLMs for fighting misinformation and call for interdisciplinary efforts from different stakeholders for combating LLM-generated misinformation.

Speech emotion recognition plays a crucial role in human-computer interactions. However, most speech emotion recognition research is biased toward English-speaking adults, which hinders its applicability to other demographic groups in different languages and age groups. In this work, we analyze the transferability of emotion recognition across three different languages--English, Mandarin Chinese, and Cantonese; and 2 different age groups--adults and the elderly. To conduct the experiment, we develop an English-Mandarin speech emotion benchmark for adults and the elderly, BiMotion, and a Cantonese speech emotion dataset, YueMotion. This study concludes that different language and age groups require specific speech features, thus making cross-lingual inference an unsuitable method. However, cross-group data augmentation is still beneficial to regularize the model, with linguistic distance being a significant influence on cross-lingual transferability. We release publicly release our code at https://github.com/HLTCHKUST/elderly_ser.

The rise of powerful large language models (LLMs) brings about tremendous opportunities for innovation but also looming risks for individuals and society at large. We have reached a pivotal moment for ensuring that LLMs and LLM-infused applications are developed and deployed responsibly. However, a central pillar of responsible AI -- transparency -- is largely missing from the current discourse around LLMs. It is paramount to pursue new approaches to provide transparency for LLMs, and years of research at the intersection of AI and human-computer interaction (HCI) highlight that we must do so with a human-centered perspective: Transparency is fundamentally about supporting appropriate human understanding, and this understanding is sought by different stakeholders with different goals in different contexts. In this new era of LLMs, we must develop and design approaches to transparency by considering the needs of stakeholders in the emerging LLM ecosystem, the novel types of LLM-infused applications being built, and the new usage patterns and challenges around LLMs, all while building on lessons learned about how people process, interact with, and make use of information. We reflect on the unique challenges that arise in providing transparency for LLMs, along with lessons learned from HCI and responsible AI research that has taken a human-centered perspective on AI transparency. We then lay out four common approaches that the community has taken to achieve transparency -- model reporting, publishing evaluation results, providing explanations, and communicating uncertainty -- and call out open questions around how these approaches may or may not be applied to LLMs. We hope this provides a starting point for discussion and a useful roadmap for future research.

CLIP (Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training) models developed by OpenAI have achieved outstanding results on various image recognition and retrieval tasks, displaying strong zero-shot performance. This means that they are able to perform effectively on tasks for which they have not been explicitly trained. Inspired by the success of OpenAI CLIP, a new publicly available dataset called LAION-5B was collected which resulted in the development of open ViT-H/14, ViT-G/14 models that outperform the OpenAI L/14 model. The LAION-5B dataset also released an approximate nearest neighbor index, with a web interface for search & subset creation. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of various CLIP models as zero-shot face recognizers. Our findings show that CLIP models perform well on face recognition tasks, but increasing the size of the CLIP model does not necessarily lead to improved accuracy. Additionally, we investigate the robustness of CLIP models against data poisoning attacks by testing their performance on poisoned data. Through this analysis, we aim to understand the potential consequences and misuse of search engines built using CLIP models, which could potentially function as unintentional face recognition engines.

The recent emergence and adoption of Machine Learning technology, and specifically of Large Language Models, has drawn attention to the need for systematic and transparent management of language data. This work proposes an approach to global language data governance that attempts to organize data management amongst stakeholders, values, and rights. Our proposal is informed by prior work on distributed governance that accounts for human values and grounded by an international research collaboration that brings together researchers and practitioners from 60 countries. The framework we present is a multi-party international governance structure focused on language data, and incorporating technical and organizational tools needed to support its work.

The task of age transformation illustrates the change of an individual's appearance over time. Accurately modeling this complex transformation over an input facial image is extremely challenging as it requires making convincing, possibly large changes to facial features and head shape, while still preserving the input identity. In this work, we present an image-to-image translation method that learns to directly encode real facial images into the latent space of a pre-trained unconditional GAN (e.g., StyleGAN) subject to a given aging shift. We employ a pre-trained age regression network to explicitly guide the encoder in generating the latent codes corresponding to the desired age. In this formulation, our method approaches the continuous aging process as a regression task between the input age and desired target age, providing fine-grained control over the generated image. Moreover, unlike approaches that operate solely in the latent space using a prior on the path controlling age, our method learns a more disentangled, non-linear path. Finally, we demonstrate that the end-to-end nature of our approach, coupled with the rich semantic latent space of StyleGAN, allows for further editing of the generated images. Qualitative and quantitative evaluations show the advantages of our method compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

Natural human-computer interaction and audio-visual human behaviour sensing systems, which would achieve robust performance in-the-wild are more needed than ever as digital devices are increasingly becoming an indispensable part of our life. Accurately annotated real-world data are the crux in devising such systems. However, existing databases usually consider controlled settings, low demographic variability, and a single task. In this paper, we introduce the SEWA database of more than 2000 minutes of audio-visual data of 398 people coming from six cultures, 50% female, and uniformly spanning the age range of 18 to 65 years old. Subjects were recorded in two different contexts: while watching adverts and while discussing adverts in a video chat. The database includes rich annotations of the recordings in terms of facial landmarks, facial action units (FAU), various vocalisations, mirroring, and continuously valued valence, arousal, liking, agreement, and prototypic examples of (dis)liking. This database aims to be an extremely valuable resource for researchers in affective computing and automatic human sensing and is expected to push forward the research in human behaviour analysis, including cultural studies. Along with the database, we provide extensive baseline experiments for automatic FAU detection and automatic valence, arousal and (dis)liking intensity estimation.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

The rapid adoption of Generative AI (GenAI) is significantly reshaping human cognition, influencing how we engage with information, think, reason, and learn. This paper synthesizes existing literature on GenAI's effects on different aspects of human cognition. Drawing on Krathwohl's revised Bloom's Taxonomy and Dewey's conceptualization of reflective thought, we examine the mechanisms through which GenAI is affecting the development of different cognitive abilities. Accordingly, we provide implications for rethinking and designing educational experiences that foster critical thinking and deeper cognitive engagement and discuss future directions to explore the long-term cognitive effects of GenAI.

The evaluation of machine-generated image captions is a complex and evolving challenge. With the advent of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), image captioning has become a core task, increasing the need for robust and reliable evaluation metrics. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of advancements in image captioning evaluation, analyzing the evolution, strengths, and limitations of existing metrics. We assess these metrics across multiple dimensions, including correlation with human judgment, ranking accuracy, and sensitivity to hallucinations. Additionally, we explore the challenges posed by the longer and more detailed captions generated by MLLMs and examine the adaptability of current metrics to these stylistic variations. Our analysis highlights some limitations of standard evaluation approaches and suggests promising directions for future research in image captioning assessment.

Current research on generative language models (GLMs) for automated text scoring (ATS) has focused almost exclusively on querying proprietary models via Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). Yet such practices raise issues around transparency and security, and these methods offer little in the way of efficiency or customizability. With the recent proliferation of smaller, open-source models, there is the option to explore GLMs with computers equipped with modest, consumer-grade hardware, that is, for the "GPU poor." In this study, we analyze the performance and efficiency of open-source, small-scale GLMs for ATS. Results show that GLMs can be fine-tuned to achieve adequate, though not state-of-the-art, performance. In addition to ATS, we take small steps towards analyzing models' capacity for generating feedback by prompting GLMs to explain their scores. Model-generated feedback shows promise, but requires more rigorous evaluation focused on targeted use cases.

This position paper proposes a data-centric viewpoint of AI research, focusing on large language models (LLMs). We start by making the key observation that data is instrumental in the developmental (e.g., pretraining and fine-tuning) and inferential stages (e.g., in-context learning) of LLMs, and yet it receives disproportionally low attention from the research community. We identify four specific scenarios centered around data, covering data-centric benchmarks and data curation, data attribution, knowledge transfer, and inference contextualization. In each scenario, we underscore the importance of data, highlight promising research directions, and articulate the potential impacts on the research community and, where applicable, the society as a whole. For instance, we advocate for a suite of data-centric benchmarks tailored to the scale and complexity of data for LLMs. These benchmarks can be used to develop new data curation methods and document research efforts and results, which can help promote openness and transparency in AI and LLM research.

This work endeavors to juxtapose the efficacy of machine learning algorithms within classical and quantum computational paradigms. Particularly, by emphasizing on Support Vector Machines (SVM), we scrutinize the classification prowess of classical SVM and Quantum Support Vector Machines (QSVM) operational on quantum hardware over the Iris dataset. The methodology embraced encapsulates an extensive array of experiments orchestrated through the Qiskit library, alongside hyperparameter optimization. The findings unveil that in particular scenarios, QSVMs extend a level of accuracy that can vie with classical SVMs, albeit the execution times are presently protracted. Moreover, we underscore that augmenting quantum computational capacity and the magnitude of parallelism can markedly ameliorate the performance of quantum machine learning algorithms. This inquiry furnishes invaluable insights regarding the extant scenario and future potentiality of machine learning applications in the quantum epoch. Colab: https://t.ly/QKuz0

We develop machine translation and speech synthesis systems to complement the efforts of revitalizing Judeo-Spanish, the exiled language of Sephardic Jews, which survived for centuries, but now faces the threat of extinction in the digital age. Building on resources created by the Sephardic community of Turkey and elsewhere, we create corpora and tools that would help preserve this language for future generations. For machine translation, we first develop a Spanish to Judeo-Spanish rule-based machine translation system, in order to generate large volumes of synthetic parallel data in the relevant language pairs: Turkish, English and Spanish. Then, we train baseline neural machine translation engines using this synthetic data and authentic parallel data created from translations by the Sephardic community. For text-to-speech synthesis, we present a 3.5 hour single speaker speech corpus for building a neural speech synthesis engine. Resources, model weights and online inference engines are shared publicly.

The creation, dissemination, and consumption of disinformation and fabricated content on social media is a growing concern, especially with the ease of access to such sources, and the lack of awareness of the existence of such false information. In this paper, we present an overview of the techniques explored to date for the combating of disinformation with various forms. We introduce different forms of disinformation, discuss factors related to the spread of disinformation, elaborate on the inherent challenges in detecting disinformation, and show some approaches to mitigating disinformation via education, research, and collaboration. Looking ahead, we present some promising future research directions on disinformation.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have recently gained immense popularity. Powerful commercial models like ChatGPT-4V and Gemini, as well as open-source ones such as LLaVA, are essentially general-purpose models and are applied to solve a wide variety of tasks, including those in computer vision. These neural networks possess such strong general knowledge and reasoning abilities that they have proven capable of working even on tasks for which they were not specifically trained. We compared the capabilities of the most powerful MLLMs to date: ShareGPT4V, ChatGPT, LLaVA-Next in a specialized task of age and gender estimation with our state-of-the-art specialized model, MiVOLO. We also updated MiVOLO and provide details and new metrics in this article. This comparison has yielded some interesting results and insights about the strengths and weaknesses of the participating models. Furthermore, we attempted various ways to fine-tune the ShareGPT4V model for this specific task, aiming to achieve state-of-the-art results in this particular challenge. Although such a model would not be practical in production, as it is incredibly expensive compared to a specialized model like MiVOLO, it could be very useful in some tasks, like data annotation.

Room layout estimation from multiple-perspective images is poorly investigated due to the complexities that emerge from multi-view geometry, which requires muti-step solutions such as camera intrinsic and extrinsic estimation, image matching, and triangulation. However, in 3D reconstruction, the advancement of recent 3D foundation models such as DUSt3R has shifted the paradigm from the traditional multi-step structure-from-motion process to an end-to-end single-step approach. To this end, we introduce Plane-DUSt3R, a novel method for multi-view room layout estimation leveraging the 3D foundation model DUSt3R. Plane-DUSt3R incorporates the DUSt3R framework and fine-tunes on a room layout dataset (Structure3D) with a modified objective to estimate structural planes. By generating uniform and parsimonious results, Plane-DUSt3R enables room layout estimation with only a single post-processing step and 2D detection results. Unlike previous methods that rely on single-perspective or panorama image, Plane-DUSt3R extends the setting to handle multiple-perspective images. Moreover, it offers a streamlined, end-to-end solution that simplifies the process and reduces error accumulation. Experimental results demonstrate that Plane-DUSt3R not only outperforms state-of-the-art methods on the synthetic dataset but also proves robust and effective on in the wild data with different image styles such as cartoon.Our code is available at: https://github.com/justacar/Plane-DUSt3R

The rapid advancement of Generative AI has catalyzed the emergence of autonomous AI agents, presenting unprecedented challenges for enterprise computing infrastructures. Current enterprise API architectures are predominantly designed for human-driven, predefined interaction patterns, rendering them ill-equipped to support intelligent agents' dynamic, goal-oriented behaviors. This research systematically examines the architectural adaptations for enterprise APIs to support AI agentic workflows effectively. Through a comprehensive analysis of existing API design paradigms, agent interaction models, and emerging technological constraints, the paper develops a strategic framework for API transformation. The study employs a mixed-method approach, combining theoretical modeling, comparative analysis, and exploratory design principles to address critical challenges in standardization, performance, and intelligent interaction. The proposed research contributes a conceptual model for next-generation enterprise APIs that can seamlessly integrate with autonomous AI agent ecosystems, offering significant implications for future enterprise computing architectures.

Although human evaluation remains the gold standard for open-domain dialogue evaluation, the growing popularity of automated evaluation using Large Language Models (LLMs) has also extended to dialogue. However, most frameworks leverage benchmarks that assess older chatbots on aspects such as fluency and relevance, which are not reflective of the challenges associated with contemporary models. In fact, a qualitative analysis on Soda, a GPT-3.5 generated dialogue dataset, suggests that current chatbots may exhibit several recurring issues related to coherence and commonsense knowledge, but generally produce highly fluent and relevant responses. Noting the aforementioned limitations, this paper introduces Soda-Eval, an annotated dataset based on Soda that covers over 120K turn-level assessments across 10K dialogues, where the annotations were generated by GPT-4. Using Soda-Eval as a benchmark, we then study the performance of several open-access instruction-tuned LLMs, finding that dialogue evaluation remains challenging. Fine-tuning these models improves performance over few-shot inferences, both in terms of correlation and explanation.

Despite the widespread adoption of Large language models (LLMs), their remarkable capabilities remain limited to a few high-resource languages. Additionally, many low-resource languages (e.g. African languages) are often evaluated only on basic text classification tasks due to the lack of appropriate or comprehensive benchmarks outside of high-resource languages. In this paper, we introduce IrokoBench -- a human-translated benchmark dataset for 16 typologically-diverse low-resource African languages covering three tasks: natural language inference~(AfriXNLI), mathematical reasoning~(AfriMGSM), and multi-choice knowledge-based QA~(AfriMMLU). We use IrokoBench to evaluate zero-shot, few-shot, and translate-test settings~(where test sets are translated into English) across 10 open and four proprietary LLMs. Our evaluation reveals a significant performance gap between high-resource languages~(such as English and French) and low-resource African languages. We observe a significant performance gap between open and proprietary models, with the highest performing open model, Aya-101 only at 58\% of the best-performing proprietary model GPT-4o performance. Machine translating the test set to English before evaluation helped to close the gap for larger models that are English-centric, like LLaMa 3 70B. These findings suggest that more efforts are needed to develop and adapt LLMs for African languages.

The advent of large pre-trained models has brought about a paradigm shift in both visual representation learning and natural language processing. However, clustering unlabeled images, as a fundamental and classic machine learning problem, still lacks an effective solution, particularly for large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a novel image clustering pipeline that leverages the powerful feature representation of large pre-trained models such as CLIP and cluster images effectively and efficiently at scale. We first developed a novel algorithm to estimate the number of clusters in a given dataset. We then show that the pre-trained features are significantly more structured by further optimizing the rate reduction objective. The resulting features may significantly improve the clustering accuracy, e.g., from 57% to 66% on ImageNet-1k. Furthermore, by leveraging CLIP's multimodality bridge between image and text, we develop a simple yet effective self-labeling algorithm that produces meaningful text labels for the clusters. Through extensive experiments, we show that our pipeline works well on standard datasets such as CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet-1k. It also extends to datasets without predefined labels, such as LAION-Aesthetics and WikiArts. We released the code in https://github.com/LeslieTrue/CPP.

A lot of Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) research is of an empirical nature. Nevertheless, statistical significance testing (SST) is still not widely used. This endangers true progress, as seeming improvements over a baseline might be statistical flukes, leading follow-up research astray while wasting human and computational resources. Here, we provide an easy-to-use package containing different significance tests and utility functions specifically tailored towards research needs and usability.

In this paper, we introduce a new large-scale face dataset named VGGFace2. The dataset contains 3.31 million images of 9131 subjects, with an average of 362.6 images for each subject. Images are downloaded from Google Image Search and have large variations in pose, age, illumination, ethnicity and profession (e.g. actors, athletes, politicians). The dataset was collected with three goals in mind: (i) to have both a large number of identities and also a large number of images for each identity; (ii) to cover a large range of pose, age and ethnicity; and (iii) to minimize the label noise. We describe how the dataset was collected, in particular the automated and manual filtering stages to ensure a high accuracy for the images of each identity. To assess face recognition performance using the new dataset, we train ResNet-50 (with and without Squeeze-and-Excitation blocks) Convolutional Neural Networks on VGGFace2, on MS- Celeb-1M, and on their union, and show that training on VGGFace2 leads to improved recognition performance over pose and age. Finally, using the models trained on these datasets, we demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on all the IARPA Janus face recognition benchmarks, e.g. IJB-A, IJB-B and IJB-C, exceeding the previous state-of-the-art by a large margin. Datasets and models are publicly available.

Pretraining is the preliminary and fundamental step in developing capable language models (LM). Despite this, pretraining data design is critically under-documented and often guided by empirically unsupported intuitions. To address this, we pretrain 28 1.5B parameter decoder-only models, training on data curated (1) at different times, (2) with varying toxicity and quality filters, and (3) with different domain compositions. First, we quantify the effect of pretraining data age. A temporal shift between evaluation data and pretraining data leads to performance degradation, which is not overcome by finetuning. Second, we explore the effect of quality and toxicity filters, showing a trade-off between performance on standard benchmarks and risk of toxic generations. Our findings indicate there does not exist a one-size-fits-all solution to filtering training data. We also find that the effects of different types of filtering are not predictable from text domain characteristics. Lastly, we empirically validate that the inclusion of heterogeneous data sources, like books and web, is broadly beneficial and warrants greater prioritization. These findings constitute the largest set of experiments to validate, quantify, and expose many undocumented intuitions about text pretraining, which we hope will help support more informed data-centric decisions in LM development.

The impact of person-job fit on job satisfaction and performance is widely acknowledged, which highlights the importance of providing workers with next steps at the right time in their career. This task of predicting the next step in a career is known as career path prediction, and has diverse applications such as turnover prevention and internal job mobility. Existing methods to career path prediction rely on large amounts of private career history data to model the interactions between job titles and companies. We propose leveraging the unexplored textual descriptions that are part of work experience sections in resumes. We introduce a structured dataset of 2,164 anonymized career histories, annotated with ESCO occupation labels. Based on this dataset, we present a novel representation learning approach, CareerBERT, specifically designed for work history data. We develop a skill-based model and a text-based model for career path prediction, which achieve 35.24% and 39.61% recall@10 respectively on our dataset. Finally, we show that both approaches are complementary as a hybrid approach achieves the strongest result with 43.01% recall@10.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

The growing popularity of data mining catalyses the researchers to explore various exciting aspects of education. Early prediction of student performance is an emerging area among them. The researchers have used various predictors in performance modelling studies. Although prior cognition can affect student performance, establishing their relationship is still an open research challenge. Quantifying the knowledge from readily available data is the major challenge here. We have proposed a semantic approach for this purpose. Association mining on nearly 0.35 million observations establishes that prior cognition impacts the student performance. The proposed approach of measuring domain knowledge can help the early performance modelling studies to use it as a predictor.

Large language models (LLMs) have significantly impacted many aspects of our lives. However, assessing and ensuring their chronological knowledge remains challenging. Existing approaches fall short in addressing the accumulative nature of knowledge, often relying on a single time stamp. To overcome this, we introduce ChroKnowBench, a benchmark dataset designed to evaluate chronologically accumulated knowledge across three key aspects: multiple domains, time dependency, temporal state. Our benchmark distinguishes between knowledge that evolves (e.g., scientific discoveries, amended laws) and knowledge that remain constant (e.g., mathematical truths, commonsense facts). Building on this benchmark, we present ChroKnowledge (Chronological Categorization of Knowledge), a novel sampling-based framework for evaluating and updating LLMs' non-parametric chronological knowledge. Our evaluation shows: (1) The ability of eliciting temporal knowledge varies depending on the data format that model was trained on. (2) LLMs partially recall knowledge or show a cut-off at temporal boundaries rather than recalling all aspects of knowledge correctly. Thus, we apply our ChroKnowPrompt, an in-depth prompting to elicit chronological knowledge by traversing step-by-step through the surrounding time spans. We observe that our framework successfully updates the overall knowledge across the entire timeline in both the biomedical domain (+11.9%) and the general domain (+2.8%), demonstrating its effectiveness in refining temporal knowledge. This non-parametric approach also enables knowledge updates not only in open-source models but also in proprietary LLMs, ensuring comprehensive applicability across model types. We perform a comprehensive analysis based on temporal characteristics of ChroKnowPrompt and validate the potential of various models to elicit intrinsic temporal knowledge through our method.

We study the problem of online prediction, in which at each time step t, an individual x_t arrives, whose label we must predict. Each individual is associated with various groups, defined based on their features such as age, sex, race etc., which may intersect. Our goal is to make predictions that have regret guarantees not just overall but also simultaneously on each sub-sequence comprised of the members of any single group. Previous work such as [Blum & Lykouris] and [Lee et al] provide attractive regret guarantees for these problems; however, these are computationally intractable on large model classes. We show that a simple modification of the sleeping experts technique of [Blum & Lykouris] yields an efficient reduction to the well-understood problem of obtaining diminishing external regret absent group considerations. Our approach gives similar regret guarantees compared to [Blum & Lykouris]; however, we run in time linear in the number of groups, and are oracle-efficient in the hypothesis class. This in particular implies that our algorithm is efficient whenever the number of groups is polynomially bounded and the external-regret problem can be solved efficiently, an improvement on [Blum & Lykouris]'s stronger condition that the model class must be small. Our approach can handle online linear regression and online combinatorial optimization problems like online shortest paths. Beyond providing theoretical regret bounds, we evaluate this algorithm with an extensive set of experiments on synthetic data and on two real data sets -- Medical costs and the Adult income dataset, both instantiated with intersecting groups defined in terms of race, sex, and other demographic characteristics. We find that uniformly across groups, our algorithm gives substantial error improvements compared to running a standard online linear regression algorithm with no groupwise regret guarantees.

In many jurisdictions, the excessive workload of courts leads to high delays. Suitable predictive AI models can assist legal professionals in their work, and thus enhance and speed up the process. So far, Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) datasets have been released in English, French, and Chinese. We publicly release a multilingual (German, French, and Italian), diachronic (2000-2020) corpus of 85K cases from the Federal Supreme Court of Switzerland (FSCS). We evaluate state-of-the-art BERT-based methods including two variants of BERT that overcome the BERT input (text) length limitation (up to 512 tokens). Hierarchical BERT has the best performance (approx. 68-70% Macro-F1-Score in German and French). Furthermore, we study how several factors (canton of origin, year of publication, text length, legal area) affect performance. We release both the benchmark dataset and our code to accelerate future research and ensure reproducibility.

Existing public face datasets are strongly biased toward Caucasian faces, and other races (e.g., Latino) are significantly underrepresented. This can lead to inconsistent model accuracy, limit the applicability of face analytic systems to non-White race groups, and adversely affect research findings based on such skewed data. To mitigate the race bias in these datasets, we construct a novel face image dataset, containing 108,501 images, with an emphasis of balanced race composition in the dataset. We define 7 race groups: White, Black, Indian, East Asian, Southeast Asian, Middle East, and Latino. Images were collected from the YFCC-100M Flickr dataset and labeled with race, gender, and age groups. Evaluations were performed on existing face attribute datasets as well as novel image datasets to measure generalization performance. We find that the model trained from our dataset is substantially more accurate on novel datasets and the accuracy is consistent between race and gender groups.

Technologies for recognizing facial attributes like race, gender, age, and emotion have several applications, such as surveillance, advertising content, sentiment analysis, and the study of demographic trends and social behaviors. Analyzing demographic characteristics based on images and analyzing facial expressions have several challenges due to the complexity of humans' facial attributes. Traditional approaches have employed CNNs and various other deep learning techniques, trained on extensive collections of labeled images. While these methods demonstrated effective performance, there remains potential for further enhancements. In this paper, we propose to utilize vision language models (VLMs) such as generative pre-trained transformer (GPT), GEMINI, large language and vision assistant (LLAVA), PaliGemma, and Microsoft Florence2 to recognize facial attributes such as race, gender, age, and emotion from images with human faces. Various datasets like FairFace, AffectNet, and UTKFace have been utilized to evaluate the solutions. The results show that VLMs are competitive if not superior to traditional techniques. Additionally, we propose "FaceScanPaliGemma"--a fine-tuned PaliGemma model--for race, gender, age, and emotion recognition. The results show an accuracy of 81.1%, 95.8%, 80%, and 59.4% for race, gender, age group, and emotion classification, respectively, outperforming pre-trained version of PaliGemma, other VLMs, and SotA methods. Finally, we propose "FaceScanGPT", which is a GPT-4o model to recognize the above attributes when several individuals are present in the image using a prompt engineered for a person with specific facial and/or physical attributes. The results underscore the superior multitasking capability of FaceScanGPT to detect the individual's attributes like hair cut, clothing color, postures, etc., using only a prompt to drive the detection and recognition tasks.

Schema linking is a crucial step in Text-to-SQL pipelines, which translate natural language queries into SQL. The goal of schema linking is to retrieve relevant tables and columns (signal) while disregarding irrelevant ones (noise). However, imperfect schema linking can often exclude essential columns needed for accurate query generation. In this work, we revisit the need for schema linking when using the latest generation of large language models (LLMs). We find empirically that newer models are adept at identifying relevant schema elements during generation, without the need for explicit schema linking. This allows Text-to-SQL pipelines to bypass schema linking entirely and instead pass the full database schema to the LLM, eliminating the risk of excluding necessary information. Furthermore, as alternatives to schema linking, we propose techniques that improve Text-to-SQL accuracy without compromising on essential schema information. Our approach achieves 71.83\% execution accuracy on the BIRD benchmark, ranking first at the time of submission.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

Rating a video based on its content is an important step for classifying video age categories. Movie content rating and TV show rating are the two most common rating systems established by professional committees. However, manually reviewing and evaluating scene/film content by a committee is a tedious work and it becomes increasingly difficult with the ever-growing amount of online video content. As such, a desirable solution is to use computer vision based video content analysis techniques to automate the evaluation process. In this paper, related works are summarized for action recognition, multi-modal learning, movie genre classification, and sensitive content detection in the context of content moderation and movie content rating. The project page is available at https://github.com/fcakyon/content-moderation-deep-learning.

Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM)consists in the concurrent construction of a model of the environment (the map), and the estimation of the state of the robot moving within it. The SLAM community has made astonishing progress over the last 30 years, enabling large-scale real-world applications, and witnessing a steady transition of this technology to industry. We survey the current state of SLAM. We start by presenting what is now the de-facto standard formulation for SLAM. We then review related work, covering a broad set of topics including robustness and scalability in long-term mapping, metric and semantic representations for mapping, theoretical performance guarantees, active SLAM and exploration, and other new frontiers. This paper simultaneously serves as a position paper and tutorial to those who are users of SLAM. By looking at the published research with a critical eye, we delineate open challenges and new research issues, that still deserve careful scientific investigation. The paper also contains the authors' take on two questions that often animate discussions during robotics conferences: Do robots need SLAM? and Is SLAM solved?

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner -- we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

Large language models (LLMs) that produce human-like responses have begun to revolutionize research practices in the social sciences. We develop a novel methodological framework that fine-tunes LLMs with repeated cross-sectional surveys to incorporate the meaning of survey questions, individual beliefs, and temporal contexts for opinion prediction. We introduce two new emerging applications of the AI-augmented survey: retrodiction (i.e., predict year-level missing responses) and unasked opinion prediction (i.e., predict entirely missing responses). Among 3,110 binarized opinions from 68,846 Americans in the General Social Survey from 1972 to 2021, our models based on Alpaca-7b excel in retrodiction (AUC = 0.86 for personal opinion prediction, rho = 0.98 for public opinion prediction). These remarkable prediction capabilities allow us to fill in missing trends with high confidence and pinpoint when public attitudes changed, such as the rising support for same-sex marriage. On the other hand, our fine-tuned Alpaca-7b models show modest success in unasked opinion prediction (AUC = 0.73, rho = 0.67). We discuss practical constraints and ethical concerns regarding individual autonomy and privacy when using LLMs for opinion prediction. Our study demonstrates that LLMs and surveys can mutually enhance each other's capabilities: LLMs can broaden survey potential, while surveys can improve the alignment of LLMs.

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.

Availability of large and diverse medical datasets is often challenged by privacy and data sharing restrictions. For successful application of machine learning techniques for disease diagnosis, prognosis, and precision medicine, large amounts of data are necessary for model building and optimization. To help overcome such limitations in the context of brain MRI, we present NeuroSynth: a collection of generative models of normative regional volumetric features derived from structural brain imaging. NeuroSynth models are trained on real brain imaging regional volumetric measures from the iSTAGING consortium, which encompasses over 40,000 MRI scans across 13 studies, incorporating covariates such as age, sex, and race. Leveraging NeuroSynth, we produce and offer 18,000 synthetic samples spanning the adult lifespan (ages 22-90 years), alongside the model's capability to generate unlimited data. Experimental results indicate that samples generated from NeuroSynth agree with the distributions obtained from real data. Most importantly, the generated normative data significantly enhance the accuracy of downstream machine learning models on tasks such as disease classification. Data and models are available at: https://huggingface.co/spaces/rongguangw/neuro-synth.

In recent years, medical information technology has made it possible for electronic health record (EHR) to store fairly complete clinical data. This has brought health care into the era of "big data". However, medical data are often sparse and strongly correlated, which means that medical problems cannot be solved effectively. With the rapid development of deep learning in recent years, it has provided opportunities for the use of big data in healthcare. In this paper, we propose a temporal-saptial correlation attention network (TSCAN) to handle some clinical characteristic prediction problems, such as predicting death, predicting length of stay, detecting physiologic decline, and classifying phenotypes. Based on the design of the attention mechanism model, our approach can effectively remove irrelevant items in clinical data and irrelevant nodes in time according to different tasks, so as to obtain more accurate prediction results. Our method can also find key clinical indicators of important outcomes that can be used to improve treatment options. Our experiments use information from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database, which is open to the public. Finally, we have achieved significant performance benefits of 2.0\% (metric) compared to other SOTA prediction methods. We achieved a staggering 90.7\% on mortality rate, 45.1\% on length of stay. The source code can be find: https://github.com/yuyuheintju/TSCAN.

Objective: We develop a deep learning framework based on the pre-trained Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model using unstructured clinical notes from electronic health records (EHRs) to predict the risk of disease progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Materials and Methods: We identified 3657 patients diagnosed with MCI together with their progress notes from Northwestern Medicine Enterprise Data Warehouse (NMEDW) between 2000-2020. The progress notes no later than the first MCI diagnosis were used for the prediction. We first preprocessed the notes by deidentification, cleaning and splitting, and then pretrained a BERT model for AD (AD-BERT) based on the publicly available Bio+Clinical BERT on the preprocessed notes. The embeddings of all the sections of a patient's notes processed by AD-BERT were combined by MaxPooling to compute the probability of MCI-to-AD progression. For replication, we conducted a similar set of experiments on 2563 MCI patients identified at Weill Cornell Medicine (WCM) during the same timeframe. Results: Compared with the 7 baseline models, the AD-BERT model achieved the best performance on both datasets, with Area Under receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) of 0.8170 and F1 score of 0.4178 on NMEDW dataset and AUC of 0.8830 and F1 score of 0.6836 on WCM dataset. Conclusion: We developed a deep learning framework using BERT models which provide an effective solution for prediction of MCI-to-AD progression using clinical note analysis.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

We test and study the variation in speech recognition of fine-tuned versions of the Whisper model on child, elderly and non-native Dutch speech from the JASMIN-CGN corpus. Our primary goal is to evaluate how speakers' age and linguistic background influence Whisper's performance. Whisper achieves varying Word Error Rates (WER) when fine-tuned on subpopulations of specific ages and linguistic backgrounds. Fine-tuned performance is remarkably better than zero-shot performance, achieving a relative reduction in WER of 81% for native children, 72% for non-native children, 67% for non-native adults, and 65% for native elderly people. Our findings underscore the importance of training speech recognition models like Whisper on underrepresented subpopulations such as children, the elderly, and non-native speakers.

With the rise of the Internet, there is a growing need to build intelligent systems that are capable of efficiently dealing with early risk detection (ERD) problems on social media, such as early depression detection, early rumor detection or identification of sexual predators. These systems, nowadays mostly based on machine learning techniques, must be able to deal with data streams since users provide their data over time. In addition, these systems must be able to decide when the processed data is sufficient to actually classify users. Moreover, since ERD tasks involve risky decisions by which people's lives could be affected, such systems must also be able to justify their decisions. However, most standard and state-of-the-art supervised machine learning models are not well suited to deal with this scenario. This is due to the fact that they either act as black boxes or do not support incremental classification/learning. In this paper we introduce SS3, a novel supervised learning model for text classification that naturally supports these aspects. SS3 was designed to be used as a general framework to deal with ERD problems. We evaluated our model on the CLEF's eRisk2017 pilot task on early depression detection. Most of the 30 contributions submitted to this competition used state-of-the-art methods. Experimental results show that our classifier was able to outperform these models and standard classifiers, despite being less computationally expensive and having the ability to explain its rationale.

Review websites, such as TripAdvisor and Yelp, allow users to post online reviews for various businesses, products and services, and have been recently shown to have a significant influence on consumer shopping behaviour. An online review typically consists of free-form text and a star rating out of 5. The problem of predicting a user's star rating for a product, given the user's text review for that product, is called Review Rating Prediction and has lately become a popular, albeit hard, problem in machine learning. In this paper, we treat Review Rating Prediction as a multi-class classification problem, and build sixteen different prediction models by combining four feature extraction methods, (i) unigrams, (ii) bigrams, (iii) trigrams and (iv) Latent Semantic Indexing, with four machine learning algorithms, (i) logistic regression, (ii) Naive Bayes classification, (iii) perceptrons, and (iv) linear Support Vector Classification. We analyse the performance of each of these sixteen models to come up with the best model for predicting the ratings from reviews. We use the dataset provided by Yelp for training and testing the models.

Hate speech poses a significant threat to social harmony. Over the past two years, Indonesia has seen a ten-fold increase in the online hate speech ratio, underscoring the urgent need for effective detection mechanisms. However, progress is hindered by the limited availability of labeled data for Indonesian texts. The condition is even worse for marginalized minorities, such as Shia, LGBTQ, and other ethnic minorities because hate speech is underreported and less understood by detection tools. Furthermore, the lack of accommodation for subjectivity in current datasets compounds this issue. To address this, we introduce IndoToxic2024, a comprehensive Indonesian hate speech and toxicity classification dataset. Comprising 43,692 entries annotated by 19 diverse individuals, the dataset focuses on texts targeting vulnerable groups in Indonesia, specifically during the hottest political event in the country: the presidential election. We establish baselines for seven binary classification tasks, achieving a macro-F1 score of 0.78 with a BERT model (IndoBERTweet) fine-tuned for hate speech classification. Furthermore, we demonstrate how incorporating demographic information can enhance the zero-shot performance of the large language model, gpt-3.5-turbo. However, we also caution that an overemphasis on demographic information can negatively impact the fine-tuned model performance due to data fragmentation.

Lifelong user behavior sequences, comprising up to tens of thousands of history behaviors, are crucial for capturing user interests and predicting user responses in modern recommendation systems. A two-stage paradigm is typically adopted to handle these long sequences: a few relevant behaviors are first searched from the original long sequences via an attention mechanism in the first stage and then aggregated with the target item to construct a discriminative representation for prediction in the second stage. In this work, we identify and characterize, for the first time, a neglected deficiency in existing long-sequence recommendation models: a single set of embeddings struggles with learning both attention and representation, leading to interference between these two processes. Initial attempts to address this issue using linear projections -- a technique borrowed from language processing -- proved ineffective, shedding light on the unique challenges of recommendation models. To overcome this, we propose the Decoupled Attention and Representation Embeddings (DARE) model, where two distinct embedding tables are initialized and learned separately to fully decouple attention and representation. Extensive experiments and analysis demonstrate that DARE provides more accurate search of correlated behaviors and outperforms baselines with AUC gains up to 0.9% on public datasets and notable online system improvements. Furthermore, decoupling embedding spaces allows us to reduce the attention embedding dimension and accelerate the search procedure by 50% without significant performance impact, enabling more efficient, high-performance online serving.

The growing popularity of generative artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots such as ChatGPT is having transformative effects on social media. As the prevalence of AI-generated content grows, concerns have been raised regarding privacy and misinformation online. Among social media platforms, Discord enables AI integrations -- making their primarily "Generation Z" userbase particularly exposed to AI-generated content. We surveyed Generation Z aged individuals (n = 335) to evaluate their proficiency in discriminating between AI-generated and human-authored text on Discord. The investigation employed one-shot prompting of ChatGPT, disguised as a text message received on the Discord.com platform. We explore the influence of demographic factors on ability, as well as participants' familiarity with Discord and artificial intelligence technologies. We find that Generation Z individuals are unable to discern between AI and human-authored text (p = 0.011), and that those with lower self-reported familiarity with Discord demonstrated an improved ability in identifying human-authored compared to those with self-reported experience with AI (p << 0.0001). Our results suggest that there is a nuanced relationship between AI technology and popular modes of communication for Generation Z, contributing valuable insights into human-computer interactions, digital communication, and artificial intelligence literacy.

Today, comprehensive evaluation of large-scale machine learning models is possible thanks to the open datasets produced using crowdsourcing, such as SQuAD, MS COCO, ImageNet, SuperGLUE, etc. These datasets capture objective responses, assuming the single correct answer, which does not allow to capture the subjective human perception. In turn, pairwise comparison tasks, in which one has to choose between only two options, allow taking peoples' preferences into account for very challenging artificial intelligence tasks, such as information retrieval and recommender system evaluation. Unfortunately, the available datasets are either small or proprietary, slowing down progress in gathering better feedback from human users. In this paper, we present IMDB-WIKI-SbS, a new large-scale dataset for evaluating pairwise comparisons. It contains 9,150 images appearing in 250,249 pairs annotated on a crowdsourcing platform. Our dataset has balanced distributions of age and gender using the well-known IMDB-WIKI dataset as ground truth. We describe how our dataset is built and then compare several baseline methods, indicating its suitability for model evaluation.

In this paper, we introduce the Chinese AI and Law challenge dataset (CAIL2018), the first large-scale Chinese legal dataset for judgment prediction. \dataset contains more than 2.6 million criminal cases published by the Supreme People's Court of China, which are several times larger than other datasets in existing works on judgment prediction. Moreover, the annotations of judgment results are more detailed and rich. It consists of applicable law articles, charges, and prison terms, which are expected to be inferred according to the fact descriptions of cases. For comparison, we implement several conventional text classification baselines for judgment prediction and experimental results show that it is still a challenge for current models to predict the judgment results of legal cases, especially on prison terms. To help the researchers make improvements on legal judgment prediction, both \dataset and baselines will be released after the CAIL competitionhttp://cail.cipsc.org.cn/.

Given a video with aligned dialogue, people can often infer what is more likely to happen next. Making such predictions requires not only a deep understanding of the rich dynamics underlying the video and dialogue, but also a significant amount of commonsense knowledge. In this work, we explore whether AI models are able to learn to make such multimodal commonsense next-event predictions. To support research in this direction, we collect a new dataset, named Video-and-Language Event Prediction (VLEP), with 28,726 future event prediction examples (along with their rationales) from 10,234 diverse TV Show and YouTube Lifestyle Vlog video clips. In order to promote the collection of non-trivial challenging examples, we employ an adversarial human-and-model-in-the-loop data collection procedure. We also present a strong baseline incorporating information from video, dialogue, and commonsense knowledge. Experiments show that each type of information is useful for this challenging task, and that compared to the high human performance on VLEP, our model provides a good starting point but leaves large room for future work. Our dataset and code are available at: https://github.com/jayleicn/VideoLanguageFuturePred

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

We evaluated the effectiveness of using language models, that were pre-trained in one domain, as the basis for a classification model in another domain: Dutch book reviews. Pre-trained language models have opened up new possibilities for classification tasks with limited labelled data, because representation can be learned in an unsupervised fashion. In our experiments we have studied the effects of training set size (100-1600 items) on the prediction accuracy of a ULMFiT classifier, based on a language models that we pre-trained on the Dutch Wikipedia. We also compared ULMFiT to Support Vector Machines, which is traditionally considered suitable for small collections. We found that ULMFiT outperforms SVM for all training set sizes and that satisfactory results (~90%) can be achieved using training sets that can be manually annotated within a few hours. We deliver both our new benchmark collection of Dutch book reviews for sentiment classification as well as the pre-trained Dutch language model to the community.

Existing research on fairness evaluation of document classification models mainly uses synthetic monolingual data without ground truth for author demographic attributes. In this work, we assemble and publish a multilingual Twitter corpus for the task of hate speech detection with inferred four author demographic factors: age, country, gender and race/ethnicity. The corpus covers five languages: English, Italian, Polish, Portuguese and Spanish. We evaluate the inferred demographic labels with a crowdsourcing platform, Figure Eight. To examine factors that can cause biases, we take an empirical analysis of demographic predictability on the English corpus. We measure the performance of four popular document classifiers and evaluate the fairness and bias of the baseline classifiers on the author-level demographic attributes.

We present Palm, a solution to the Long-Term Action Anticipation (LTA) task utilizing vision-language and large language models. Given an input video with annotated action periods, the LTA task aims to predict possible future actions. We hypothesize that an optimal solution should capture the interdependency between past and future actions, and be able to infer future actions based on the structure and dependency encoded in the past actions. Large language models have demonstrated remarkable commonsense-based reasoning ability. Inspired by that, Palm chains an image captioning model and a large language model. It predicts future actions based on frame descriptions and action labels extracted from the input videos. Our method outperforms other participants in the EGO4D LTA challenge and achieves the best performance in terms of action prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/DanDoge/Palm

We tasked 16 state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) with estimating the likelihood of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) emerging by 2030. To assess the quality of these forecasts, we implemented an automated peer review process (LLM-PR). The LLMs' estimates varied widely, ranging from 3% (Reka- Core) to 47.6% (GPT-4o), with a median of 12.5%. These estimates closely align with a recent expert survey that projected a 10% likelihood of AGI by 2027, underscoring the relevance of LLMs in forecasting complex, speculative scenarios. The LLM-PR process demonstrated strong reliability, evidenced by a high Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC = 0.79), reflecting notable consistency in scoring across the models. Among the models, Pplx-70b-online emerged as the top performer, while Gemini-1.5-pro-api ranked the lowest. A cross-comparison with external benchmarks, such as LMSYS Chatbot Arena, revealed that LLM rankings remained consistent across different evaluation methods, suggesting that existing benchmarks may not encapsulate some of the skills relevant for AGI prediction. We further explored the use of weighting schemes based on external benchmarks, optimizing the alignment of LLMs' predictions with human expert forecasts. This analysis led to the development of a new, 'AGI benchmark' designed to highlight performance differences in AGI-related tasks. Our findings offer insights into LLMs' capabilities in speculative, interdisciplinary forecasting tasks and emphasize the growing need for innovative evaluation frameworks for assessing AI performance in complex, uncertain real-world scenarios.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

In the evolving field of Natural Language Processing, understanding the temporal context of text is increasingly crucial. This study investigates methods to incorporate temporal information during pre-training, aiming to achieve effective time-aware language representation for improved performance on time-related tasks. In contrast to common pre-trained models like BERT, which rely on synchronic document collections such as BookCorpus and Wikipedia, our research introduces BiTimeBERT 2.0, a novel language model pre-trained on a temporal news article collection. BiTimeBERT 2.0 utilizes this temporal news collection, focusing on three innovative pre-training objectives: Time-Aware Masked Language Modeling (TAMLM), Document Dating (DD), and Time-Sensitive Entity Replacement (TSER). Each objective targets a unique aspect of temporal information. TAMLM is designed to enhance the understanding of temporal contexts and relations, DD integrates document timestamps as chronological markers, and TSER focuses on the temporal dynamics of "Person" entities, recognizing their inherent temporal significance. The experimental results consistently demonstrate that BiTimeBERT 2.0 outperforms models like BERT and other existing pre-trained models, achieving substantial gains across a variety of downstream NLP tasks and applications where time plays a pivotal role.

Large language models (LLMs) offer a promising pre-screening tool, improving early disease detection and providing enhanced healthcare access for underprivileged communities. The early diagnosis of various diseases continues to be a significant challenge in healthcare, primarily due to the nonspecific nature of early symptoms, the shortage of expert medical practitioners, and the need for prolonged clinical evaluations, all of which can delay treatment and adversely affect patient outcomes. With impressive accuracy in prediction across a range of diseases, LLMs have the potential to revolutionize clinical pre-screening and decision-making for various medical conditions. In this work, we study the diagnostic capability of LLMs for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) with real world patients data. Patient data was collected alongside diagnoses from medical experts, and the performance of LLMs was evaluated in comparison to expert diagnoses for RA disease prediction. We notice an interesting pattern in disease diagnosis and find an unexpected misalignment between prediction and explanation. We conduct a series of multi-round analyses using different LLM agents. The best-performing model accurately predicts rheumatoid arthritis (RA) diseases approximately 95\% of the time. However, when medical experts evaluated the reasoning generated by the model, they found that nearly 68\% of the reasoning was incorrect. This study highlights a clear misalignment between LLMs high prediction accuracy and its flawed reasoning, raising important questions about relying on LLM explanations in clinical settings. LLMs provide incorrect reasoning to arrive at the correct answer for RA disease diagnosis.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

We present time vectors, a simple tool to customize language models to new time periods. Time vectors are created by finetuning a language model on data from a single time (e.g., a year or month), and then subtracting the weights of the original pretrained model. This vector specifies a direction in weight space that, as our experiments show, improves performance on text from that time period. Time vectors specialized to adjacent time periods appear to be positioned closer together in a manifold. Using this structure, we interpolate between time vectors to induce new models that perform better on intervening and future time periods, without any additional training. We demonstrate the consistency of our findings across different tasks, domains, model sizes, and time scales. Our results suggest that time is encoded in the weight space of finetuned models.

Predicting gender by the first name is not a simple task. In many applications, especially in the natural language processing (NLP) field, this task may be necessary, mainly when considering foreign names. In this paper, we examined and implemented several machine learning algorithms, such as extra trees, KNN, Naive Bayes, SVM, random forest, gradient boosting, light GBM, logistic regression, ridge classifier, and deep neural network models, such as MLP, RNN, GRU, CNN, and BiLSTM, to classify gender through the first name. A dataset of Brazilian names is used to train and evaluate the models. We analyzed the accuracy, recall, precision, f1 score, and confusion matrix to measure the models' performances. The results indicate that the gender prediction can be performed from the feature extraction strategy looking at the names as a set of strings. Some models accurately predict gender in more than 95% of the cases. The recurrent models overcome the feedforward models in this binary classification problem.

Emotion prediction is the field of study to understand human emotions. Existing methods focus on modalities like text, audio, facial expressions, etc., which could be private to the user. Emotion can be derived from the subject's psychological data as well. Various approaches that employ combinations of physiological sensors for emotion recognition have been proposed. Yet, not all sensors are simple to use and handy for individuals in their daily lives. Thus, we propose a system to predict user emotion using smartwatch sensors. We design a framework to collect ground truth in real-time utilizing a mix of English and regional language-based videos to invoke emotions in participants and collect the data. Further, we modeled the problem as binary classification due to the limited dataset size and experimented with multiple machine-learning models. We also did an ablation study to understand the impact of features including Heart Rate, Accelerometer, and Gyroscope sensor data on mood. From the experimental results, Multi-Layer Perceptron has shown a maximum accuracy of 93.75 percent for pleasant-unpleasant (high/low valence classification) moods.

Language models (LMs) may lead their users to make suboptimal downstream decisions when they confidently hallucinate. This issue can be mitigated by having the LM verbally convey the probability that its claims are correct, but existing models cannot produce text with calibrated confidence statements. Through the lens of decision-making, we formalize linguistic calibration for long-form generations: an LM is linguistically calibrated if its generations enable its users to make calibrated probabilistic predictions. This definition enables a training framework where a supervised finetuning step bootstraps an LM to emit long-form generations with confidence statements such as "I estimate a 30% chance of..." or "I am certain that...", followed by a reinforcement learning step which rewards generations that enable a user to provide calibrated answers to related questions. We linguistically calibrate Llama 2 7B and find in automated and human evaluations of long-form generations that it is significantly more calibrated than strong finetuned factuality baselines with comparable accuracy. These findings generalize under distribution shift on question-answering and under a significant task shift to person biography generation. Our results demonstrate that long-form generations may be calibrated end-to-end by constructing an objective in the space of the predictions that users make in downstream decision-making.

Building predictive models for robust and accurate prediction of stock prices and stock price movement is a challenging research problem to solve. The well-known efficient market hypothesis believes in the impossibility of accurate prediction of future stock prices in an efficient stock market as the stock prices are assumed to be purely stochastic. However, numerous works proposed by researchers have demonstrated that it is possible to predict future stock prices with a high level of precision using sophisticated algorithms, model architectures, and the selection of appropriate variables in the models. This chapter proposes a collection of predictive regression models built on deep learning architecture for robust and precise prediction of the future prices of a stock listed in the diversified sectors in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The Metastock tool is used to download the historical stock prices over a period of two years (2013- 2014) at 5 minutes intervals. While the records for the first year are used to train the models, the testing is carried out using the remaining records. The design approaches of all the models and their performance results are presented in detail. The models are also compared based on their execution time and accuracy of prediction.

Since large language models have approached human-level performance on many tasks, it has become increasingly harder for researchers to find tasks that are still challenging to the models. Failure cases usually come from the long-tail distribution - data that an oracle language model could assign a probability on the lower end of its distribution. Current methodology such as prompt engineering or crowdsourcing are insufficient for creating long-tail examples because humans are constrained by cognitive bias. We propose a Logic-Induced-Knowledge-Search (LINK) framework for systematically generating long-tail knowledge statements. Grounded by a symbolic rule, we search for long-tail values for each variable of the rule by first prompting a LLM, then verifying the correctness of the values with a critic, and lastly pushing for the long-tail distribution with a reranker. With this framework we construct a dataset, Logic-Induced-Long-Tail (LINT), consisting of 200 symbolic rules and 50K knowledge statements spanning across four domains. Human annotations find that 84% of the statements in LINT are factually correct. In contrast, ChatGPT and GPT4 struggle with directly generating long-tail statements under the guidance of logic rules, each only getting 56% and 78% of their statements correct. Moreover, their "long-tail" generations in fact fall into the higher likelihood range, and thus are not really long-tail. Our findings suggest that LINK is effective for generating data in the long-tail distribution while enforcing quality. LINT can be useful for systematically evaluating LLMs' capabilities in the long-tail distribution. We challenge the models with a simple entailment classification task using samples from LINT. We find that ChatGPT and GPT4's capability in identifying incorrect knowledge drop by ~3% in the long-tail distribution compared to head distribution.

Forecasting future world events is a challenging but valuable task. Forecasts of climate, geopolitical conflict, pandemics and economic indicators help shape policy and decision making. In these domains, the judgment of expert humans contributes to the best forecasts. Given advances in language modeling, can these forecasts be automated? To this end, we introduce Autocast, a dataset containing thousands of forecasting questions and an accompanying news corpus. Questions are taken from forecasting tournaments, ensuring high quality, real-world importance, and diversity. The news corpus is organized by date, allowing us to precisely simulate the conditions under which humans made past forecasts (avoiding leakage from the future). Motivated by the difficulty of forecasting numbers across orders of magnitude (e.g. global cases of COVID-19 in 2022), we also curate IntervalQA, a dataset of numerical questions and metrics for calibration. We test language models on our forecasting task and find that performance is far below a human expert baseline. However, performance improves with increased model size and incorporation of relevant information from the news corpus. In sum, Autocast poses a novel challenge for large language models and improved performance could bring large practical benefits.

Developing clinical prediction models (e.g., mortality prediction) based on electronic health records (EHRs) typically relies on expert opinion for feature selection and adjusting observation window size. This burdens experts and creates a bottleneck in the development process. We propose Retrieval-Enhanced Medical prediction model (REMed) to address such challenges. REMed can essentially evaluate an unlimited number of clinical events, select the relevant ones, and make predictions. This approach effectively eliminates the need for manual feature selection and enables an unrestricted observation window. We verified these properties through experiments on 27 clinical tasks and two independent cohorts from publicly available EHR datasets, where REMed outperformed other contemporary architectures that aim to handle as many events as possible. Notably, we found that the preferences of REMed align closely with those of medical experts. We expect our approach to significantly expedite the development of EHR prediction models by minimizing clinicians' need for manual involvement.

Knowing how to end and resume conversations over time is a natural part of communication, allowing for discussions to span weeks, months, or years. The duration of gaps between conversations dictates which topics are relevant and which questions to ask, and dialogue systems which do not explicitly model time may generate responses that are unnatural. In this work we explore the idea of making dialogue models aware of time, and present GapChat, a multi-session dialogue dataset in which the time between each session varies. While the dataset is constructed in real-time, progress on events in speakers' lives is simulated in order to create realistic dialogues occurring across a long timespan. We expose time information to the model and compare different representations of time and event progress. In human evaluation we show that time-aware models perform better in metrics that judge the relevance of the chosen topics and the information gained from the conversation.

We present a self-supervised, time-to-event (TTE) foundation model called MOTOR (Many Outcome Time Oriented Representations) which is pretrained on timestamped sequences of events in electronic health records (EHR) and health insurance claims. TTE models are used for estimating the probability distribution of the time until a specific event occurs, which is an important task in medical settings. TTE models provide many advantages over classification using fixed time horizons, including naturally handling censored observations, but are challenging to train with limited labeled data. MOTOR addresses this challenge by pretraining on up to 55M patient records (9B clinical events). We evaluate MOTOR's transfer learning performance on 19 tasks, across 3 patient databases (a private EHR system, MIMIC-IV, and Merative claims data). Task-specific models adapted from MOTOR improve time-dependent C statistics by 4.6% over state-of-the-art, improve label efficiency by up to 95% ,and are more robust to temporal distributional shifts. We further evaluate cross-site portability by adapting our MOTOR foundation model for six prediction tasks on the MIMIC-IV dataset, where it outperforms all baselines. MOTOR is the first foundation model for medical TTE predictions and we release a 143M parameter pretrained model for research use at [redacted URL].

Machine learning techniques are effective for building predictive models because they identify patterns in large datasets. Development of a model for complex real-life problems often stop at the point of publication, proof of concept or when made accessible through some mode of deployment. However, a model in the medical domain risks becoming obsolete as patient demographics, systems and clinical practices change. The maintenance and monitoring of predictive model performance post-publication is crucial to enable their safe and effective long-term use. We will assess the infrastructure required to monitor the outputs of a machine learning algorithm, and present two scenarios with examples of monitoring and updates of models, firstly on a breast cancer prognosis model trained on public longitudinal data, and secondly on a neurodegenerative stratification algorithm that is currently being developed and tested in clinic.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

We present a systematic study of biases in natural language generation (NLG) by analyzing text generated from prompts that contain mentions of different demographic groups. In this work, we introduce the notion of the regard towards a demographic, use the varying levels of regard towards different demographics as a defining metric for bias in NLG, and analyze the extent to which sentiment scores are a relevant proxy metric for regard. To this end, we collect strategically-generated text from language models and manually annotate the text with both sentiment and regard scores. Additionally, we build an automatic regard classifier through transfer learning, so that we can analyze biases in unseen text. Together, these methods reveal the extent of the biased nature of language model generations. Our analysis provides a study of biases in NLG, bias metrics and correlated human judgments, and empirical evidence on the usefulness of our annotated dataset.

Despite its importance, the time variable has been largely neglected in the NLP and language model literature. In this paper, we present TimeLMs, a set of language models specialized on diachronic Twitter data. We show that a continual learning strategy contributes to enhancing Twitter-based language models' capacity to deal with future and out-of-distribution tweets, while making them competitive with standardized and more monolithic benchmarks. We also perform a number of qualitative analyses showing how they cope with trends and peaks in activity involving specific named entities or concept drift.

This paper uses the BERT model, which is a transformer-based architecture, to solve task 4A, English Language, Sentiment Analysis in Twitter of SemEval2017. BERT is a very powerful large language model for classification tasks when the amount of training data is small. For this experiment, we have used the BERT(BASE) model, which has 12 hidden layers. This model provides better accuracy, precision, recall, and f1 score than the Naive Bayes baseline model. It performs better in binary classification subtasks than the multi-class classification subtasks. We also considered all kinds of ethical issues during this experiment, as Twitter data contains personal and sensible information. The dataset and code used in our experiment can be found in this GitHub repository.

Modeling long histories plays a pivotal role in enhancing recommendation systems, allowing to capture user's evolving preferences, resulting in more precise and personalized recommendations. In this study we tackle the challenges of modeling long user histories for preference understanding in natural language. Specifically, we introduce a new User Embedding Module (UEM) that efficiently processes user history in free-form text by compressing and representing them as embeddings, to use them as soft prompts to a LM. Our experiments demonstrate the superior capability of this approach in handling significantly longer histories compared to conventional text based prompting methods, yielding substantial improvements in predictive performance. The main contribution of this research is to demonstrate the ability to bias language models with user signals represented as embeddings.

In recent years supervised representation learning has provided state of the art or close to the state of the art results in semantic analysis tasks including ranking and information retrieval. The core idea is to learn how to embed items into a latent space such that they optimize a supervised objective in that latent space. The dimensions of the latent space have no clear semantics, and this reduces the interpretability of the system. For example, in personalization models, it is hard to explain why a particular item is ranked high for a given user profile. We propose a novel model of representation learning called Supervised Explicit Semantic Analysis (SESA) that is trained in a supervised fashion to embed items to a set of dimensions with explicit semantics. The model learns to compare two objects by representing them in this explicit space, where each dimension corresponds to a concept from a knowledge base. This work extends Explicit Semantic Analysis (ESA) with a supervised model for ranking problems. We apply this model to the task of Job-Profile relevance in LinkedIn in which a set of skills defines our explicit dimensions of the space. Every profile and job are encoded to this set of skills their similarity is calculated in this space. We use RNNs to embed text input into this space. In addition to interpretability, our model makes use of the web-scale collaborative skills data that is provided by users for each LinkedIn profile. Our model provides state of the art result while it remains interpretable.

Social determinants of health (SDoH) have an important impact on patient outcomes but are incompletely collected from the electronic health records (EHR). This study researched the ability of large language models to extract SDoH from free text in EHRs, where they are most commonly documented, and explored the role of synthetic clinical text for improving the extraction of these scarcely documented, yet extremely valuable, clinical data. 800 patient notes were annotated for SDoH categories, and several transformer-based models were evaluated. The study also experimented with synthetic data generation and assessed for algorithmic bias. Our best-performing models were fine-tuned Flan-T5 XL (macro-F1 0.71) for any SDoH, and Flan-T5 XXL (macro-F1 0.70). The benefit of augmenting fine-tuning with synthetic data varied across model architecture and size, with smaller Flan-T5 models (base and large) showing the greatest improvements in performance (delta F1 +0.12 to +0.23). Model performance was similar on the in-hospital system dataset but worse on the MIMIC-III dataset. Our best-performing fine-tuned models outperformed zero- and few-shot performance of ChatGPT-family models for both tasks. These fine-tuned models were less likely than ChatGPT to change their prediction when race/ethnicity and gender descriptors were added to the text, suggesting less algorithmic bias (p<0.05). At the patient-level, our models identified 93.8% of patients with adverse SDoH, while ICD-10 codes captured 2.0%. Our method can effectively extracted SDoH information from clinic notes, performing better compare to GPT zero- and few-shot settings. These models could enhance real-world evidence on SDoH and aid in identifying patients needing social support.