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019c67ff9c4b1d4d373a9eca73d7ff6d995753c9ed2167066c9123066f32914c | China UN mediation | China’s a status quo power pursuing liberalism NOT revisionism.
Wilson 20 – Master’s Degree Student-International Relations, School of Politics, Law and Public Administration, Hubei University, China
China’s rise is centered on trade and market system It makes no sense to pursue confrontation participation in rules , norms and systems makes them not a threat China localize norms through socialization to reap the benefits not fight it revised 3000 laws to conform to coop democratization is underway in documents like the white paper no option but to attain levels attained by other societies peace will result China will have no short cuts but to agree even if China’s rise cause concern institutions such as UN can mediate for peace a member of institutions These include APEC ASEAN East Asia Summit FOCAC SCO Non-Prolif WTO and the UN more than 300 conventions and 18 peacekeeping op s China propagated, peaceful development Trying to challenge the dominant state can be costly weak states bandwagon China understands engaging in war with a big power would be catastrophic and hinder development China’s rise will remain peaceful |
02b98af9c28d7a1c3c722404275478b003aef7ee2501bd7c0780d20a2a05037f | Rhee and Subedi 14 | Chief Seattle once said: “The White man will never be alone. Let him be just and deal kindly with my people, for the dead are not powerless. Dead, did I say? There is no death, only a change of worlds.”
Rhee and Subedi 14 (Jeong-eun, assistant professor of education @ Long Island University, B.A. @ Ewha Women’s University, M.A. @ West Virginia University, Ph.D. @ Ohio State University, and Binaya Subedi, Associate Professor, Department of Teaching and Learning @ Ohio State University, 7-28-2014, “Colonizing and Decolonizing Projects of Re/Covering Spirituality,” Educational Studies, Vol 50:4, pg. 348-353)
decolonizing imaginations are more than oppositional spirituality is not considered legitimate Although empiricism pragmatism may be legitimate domains such as emotion that go outside “ Western rationality ” invite labels of not objective and inferior To advocate justice leaders unlearn association with US government Indigenous spirituality is a space where the West cannot decipher and control spirituality has been required for African American communities to participate in political struggle spirituality carries a possibility of decolonizing because it opens power and info beyond Eurocentric discourse Fanon terms the space zone of occult instability : a praxis from which marginalized communities transform colonial regimes . transformative spirituality demands rewriting knowledge paradigms that limit experiences within the binary of material as tangible and spiritual as nonexistent. Some may doubt possibilities However this discussion is fundamental to decolonization since political economy have become imperial tools it is necessary to ask if educators are consuming spirituality that is ahistorical to invoke neoliberal well-being. spirituality should not avoid historical structures Spirituality rebuild through ongoing healing being able to hope never-ending genocid must be “the evidence of things not seen ” This refusal to be “devoured, consumed becomes a different envisioning of future |
03b14145f0f9ae01eead16092b2a8a4cfc0df58a150f77348fa4156b4760f4df | clean energy policy types | Clean energy policies promote adoption of renewable energy.
Noonan 19 – Professor of Public & Environmental Affairs, IU Indianapolis
to organize clean-energy policies we begin with a taxonomy of instruments clean energy policies promote adoption and diffusion of low-carbon energy such as RE we group c e p measures into four categories regulatory financial gov provision and info Design often involves parameters that affect distributive procedural aspects |
008c1144e6d47f29467ab64579b0e5938d8ffecf224b3fed3d2eeec770e02a99 | John Komlos | A litany of reasons prove that the distinction between models and material markets results in hyperinefficiencies that turn case---14 warrants that zero case if any are dropped.
John Komlos 21. Professor Emeritus of Economics and of Economic History at the University of Munich, Germany. “The Hidden Racism in Economics.” Iowa State University, Economics. https://www.econ.iastate.edu/files/events/files/komlos_hidden_racism_in_economics_2.pdf
free markets deviate from theoretical free markets discrepancy s are racist Economics Assumes that Power Does not Matter the economy is embedded in a political system being indifferent to distribution of wealth overlooks feedback mechanism between the economic system and power structure Markets characterized by imperfect information info poses a formidable obstacle for minorities they often lack the social networks that facilitate access to info people mimic mannerisms projected across monitors this is how we became mired in debt corporations influence children poor children are vulnerable subconscious had been impacted substantially by the corporate world is detrimental to minorities Economic theory assum people’s rationality disregarding psychological evidence to the contrary the poor afford less information fewer educational opportunities more challenged to make good decisions more vulnerable to predatory business practices rationality assumption enables market outcomes Consumer protection would interfere with their autonomy economic theory supports the fiction that minorities are in control and deserve their place in society free markets open up people to take advantage of counterparties exploit the weak by incomplete contracts Because of less schooling and being unable to afford info the poor are exposed to opportunists Lack of money means limited recourse to the legal system important products are complicated cell phone contracts and credit card rules contain hidden elements economic theory neglects sociology cultural norms facilitate value system disadvantaged neighborhoods put poor people at a disadvantage poverty is propagated across generations economists justifi moral resentment toward those who are less successful and disparage the “ subordinated racial groups ” as irresponsible free riders lacking the work ethic , and justify racial inequalities Markets are not efficient at alleviating deprivation economics should incorporate basic needs and prioritize health care, basic income, or a job guarantee economic theory extolls virtues that are hardly value neutral are above morality the discipline trivializes discrimination as a “taste the market system is neutral about distribution but people are not today’s economy is dominated by multinational oligopolies that manipulate consumers corporations manipulat the weakest members by targeting campaigns discriminating loans redlining acorporations invest in propagating a technocratic meritocracy that justifies distribution by arguing people deserve what they earn in the market corporations take advantage of people with less information people with better information have an advantage to the detriment of poor people If information is free oversight would serve no purpose benign assumptions and the lack of consumer protection that follows are against groups who do not have easy access to info poverty is not evenly distributed spatial concentration means poor children do not have access inadequate schooling locks them into an inefficient developmental path economists commit a major mistake by starting analysis with adults problems are solved by the market. There is hardly any role for a government government is wasteful and interferes with efficient outcomes Pollution can be solved by taxes government becomes dispensable Markets are not good at reducing prejudice Only the government can protect minorities we ought not to rely on markets to create a moral framework |
02adabc5d00be3516e4fc948800122e072784969afb8c8c29e8b4b16c26785a9 | ecological degradation | Thus, we affirm a praxis of the plot; the autopoietic reproduction of the memory of Black burial plots, communal farms, and spaces of healing redescribes the descriptive statement of man2 away from economic rationality.
Alex A. Moulton 24, Assistant Professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental Science at Hunter College “Plotting a New Course for Environmental Humanities: Provision Grounds, Race, and the Future,” Environmental Humanities, vol. 16, no. 2, 07/01/2024, pp. 271–290//sheima
deciphering how signifying practices establish systems of value is crucial to cultural revolutions against dominant imaginaries understanding the plot in terms of world-making as a methodology follows from Wynter’s reminder that humans are a storytelling species Following sociogeny Being human is a praxis challenging the overrepresentation of one genre of the human promises better environmental futures since ecological degradation and destruction are direct effects of cultural hegemony A future beyond narrow conceptions of the human will be a future of better ecological realities focus on these spaces allows different plots— storylines—to come into view Black burial plots, traditional fishing grounds, and farms—a Black commons—as memorializing Black ecological stewardship The plot becomes space of insurgent Black political movements a fugitive sociality Black commons constitute an emergent ecology reflecting how Black communities make life against toxification, pollution, and uneven vulnerability to environmental disaster plantation futures can go two ways the system is left untouched and we are left to defend it and , where the workings of the system are engendered in a plot-life Black ecocritical work traces the plot’s reproduction into contemporary urban geographies . spaces of otherness provide a vocabulary for plot-work our landscape is its own monument |
01602b859812f8947997bd0aa8eb484f9bf02cc596e5f6b9a6439193eb56b05f | alternative to hegemony | 7. Failure to provide a clear alternative to hegemony and liberal foreign policy ensures their method remains insular.
Brenes 22 (Michael Brenes teaches history at Yale University. His new book is For Might and Right: Cold War Defense Spending and the Remaking of American Democracy. 12-20-2022, "American Hegemony Is Morally Bankrupt. We Need a Just Alternative.," Jacobin, https://jacobin.com/2022/12/leftist-foreign-policy-restraint-strategy-ukraine-war, JKS)
Restraint is not the end in and of itself must look to build affirmative vision relies upon international collaboration to reprioritize security threats climate change migration refugee policy poverty global health deter imperial adventures demilitarize landscape of fo po restraint will not thrive simply as critique Restraint cannot be reactive and defensive if ever there was a time when the sheer force of events should suffice to undermine a theory, it is now For the first time since the 1980s, everyone is talking about capitalism—not alterity hybridity , or the fragment, but the ubiquitous, grinding, crushing force of capital It is hard to imagine a more dramatic confirmation of the two universalisms than demands for bread, rights, jobs, and democracy secular, universalistic, and materialist demands masses of young revolutionaries called for liberty the U S and Europe experienced mass mobilizations the past five years created recognition of postcolonial theory’s shortcomings There are journals wholly committed to it, chairs in humanities departments sections in disciplinary societies book series at publishing houses , not only have lavish material resources been plowed into the field, but hundreds of scholars have built their reputations on it legions of intellectuals who have staked their reputations on this theoretical framework response to the political developments to bend and twist the theory so that it might appear capable of accommodating developments that rather directly undermine its basic propositions; and violently attack any concerted critique when scientific theories meet with even outright disconfirmation They are able to survive for long periods because of the resources that can be deployed to defend them postcolonial theory is much the same , the absence of experimental conditions makes the likelihood of rapid displacement even more remote. The times in which we live this will not happen on its own All the more reason to begin now. |
01581f1fb0834b5594f0f5ba753f2bedd86104ef7979950b25db06034516ce28 | extraction and consumption disruptive health effects | Even if not existential, climate change risks heightening systemic inequalities and dooming marginalized populations to painful crises engendered by corporate pollution --- the plan’s a necessary and sufficient solution to the worst health-based impacts of extraction, while providing sustainable infrastructures of support.
Ambasta & Buonocore 18 [Anshula Ambasta [Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, 3330 Hospital Drive NW, Calgary, AB T2N 4N1, Canada] & Jonathan J. Buonocore [Center for Health and the Global Environment, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA], “Carbon pricing: a win-win environmental and public health policy,” 28 June 2018, Canadian Journal of Public Health (2018) 109:779–781 https://doi.org/10.17269/s41997-018-0099-5, Bittner]
Combustion of fossil fuels leads to air pollution which has adverse health effects extraction and consumption have disruptive health effects Limiting fossil fuel use through carbon pricing reduce adverse health outcomes Modeling across the world demonstrate reducing carbon emissions by reducing fossil fuel use has health benefits proposed carbon fee in Ma estimated to save 340 lives between 2017 and 2040 Carbon pricing lead to broader public health benefits Higher cost of transportation encourage to walk or public transportation Reducing emissions through carbon pricing improve physical environment and ag sustainability Redistributing revenue promote health equity through econ equity Improvement in air quality improve health of all particularly vulnerable populations, While climate change aggravates inequalities, and disproportionately affects the most vulnerable price on carbon can mitigate climate change and close existing inequities by protecting populations disproportionately impacted by climate change |
023d5d572c555b5ed9bb06635ac02c11d1a51905b89e043df13910ba96e93ebc | Hubert Buch-Hansen | Reducing consumption fails – degrowth is locked in
Hubert Buch-Hansen ‘18, Professor of business at Copenhagen School of Business, “The Prerequisites for a Degrowth Paradigm Shift: Insights from Critical Political Economy,” Ecological Economics, Vol. 146
degrowth is nowhere near enjoying the support it needs The number of organisations that have embraced degrowth is modest are united in belief growth is desirable political elites vehemently oppose implementation international organisations are “ programmed” to facilitate accumulation advocates of degrowth are grassroots, small fractions of left-wing parties academics degrowth has only modest resources advocates do not possess instruments that enable decision-makers degrowth remains unknown to most most would not find a smaller economic system appealing degrowth triggers negative feelings in people when they hear it . Even if the majority wanted a break with the current system, it is far from given that degrowth is what they would demand wars keep happening governments gain politically from war, even if the war makes no sense Ukraine may lie in the Russian economy growth has been sputtering — and Putin needed a distraction . Similar arguments have been made about Falkland in 1982 nations almost always rally around their leaders no matter how foolish the war the “war on terror” took Bush’s approval to dizzying heights Putin’s ratings have soared since Ukraine Even under a full-out attack against its basic assumptions unleashed in the financial crisis , neoliberalism proved resilient beyond its architects’ wildest dreams. Its capacity to absorb, coopt and recast guarantee its survival socialist government of Zapatero tried to salvage the social-democratic legacies disaster of the cajas intensified In Romania, local policymakers further radicalized despite challenges, neoliberalism is alive and kicking as tech accrue humans learn humans manipulate the environment around them gains’ in politics are easily undone progress is a myth. no examples of humans showing intelligence or will to voluntarily restructure societies in the measure required for degrowth , let alone at the speed to avert ecological collapse no democratic state survive without growth over medium and long terms result is popular blowba mistake to think degrowth is feasible because it is desirable ev suggests it is unfeasible degrowth reflects pseudo-religious faith in humans' willingness and ability to convert ecological worldview to adjust institutions economic crises led to environmental consequences degrowth offers no guarantee that enviro impacts will decline Less affluent economies use less tech substantially increase resource demands would entirely offset benefits of lower levels of consumption Growing demand raised resource productivity Reversing will not result in lower enviro impacts Lowering demand for resources result in less-productive resource use drive societies toward less-productive tech The end of growth do more harm to the planet than good During times of rapid social transitions , social norms lag creating , social conflict, negative impacts on wellbeing changing social structures establish misalignments wide-ranging organisational change negative effects on people’s health and mortality wellbeing highest in periods of economic stability potential for social conflict inherent in social change transition phase marked by chaos power-ridden struggles underm conditions necessary for satisfaction of basic needs very difficult to imagine a change people value intrinsically motivated activities over consumption political events indicate times of negative or stagnant growth breeding ground for populist movements habitus produces common-sense reinforced day-to-day growth imperative serving as pensée unique appears to provide solutions for all issues social genesis is invisible , and appears natural those receiving an “acceptance of domination” during crisis opt for authoritarian defense historically replacing democratic rule by authoritarian use of force rightwing movements provide a solution using military power , closing borders , and leaving victims of climate change |
02a8e90c170ce35041c8f9ab759b5c6695f0872d7a9ec208826148ec148ee7e2 | Pakistan defaults debt | Over-production destabilizes Gulf producers---forces Pakistan to default on debt.
Rodrigo Campos & Libby George 12-2, emerging markets correspondent for Reuters; emerging markets correspondent for Reuters, former Pulitzer Prize finalist, “Trump's Low Oil Price Promise Is a Risk and a Boon for Emerging Markets,” U.S. News and World Report, 12-2-24, https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2024-12-02/trumps-low-oil-price-promise-is-a-risk-and-a-boon-for-emerging-markets
Trump promised " drill, baby, drill " to halve energy costs , that sends shivers through emerging market s about earnings Trump cannot control prices The U S has limited influence over OPEC But oil oversupply led investors to hedge You will have very specific problems Balance sheets at OPEC would take the hit But the Kingdom , is insulated Following price crashes Saudi sought to diversify however , a drop could force it to scale back weaker balance sheets could have knock-on effects Egypt and Pakistan - debt-laden would take a hit if Gulf producers closed their checkbooks while weathering a decline could delay the transition from fossil fuels |
045da7cb4b53777ff8ce7b2a9f4159f20e1c5483ef6100b4048b2a699a97e1bf | Basel III shadow banking | Failure to contain shadow banking zeroes solvency.
Christina Parajon Skinner 21. Assistant Professor, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. “Central Banks and Climate Change”. Vanderbilt Law Review Vol. 74:5:1301. 2021. https://wp0.vanderbilt.edu/lawreview/wp-content/uploads/sites/278/2021/10/Central-Banks-and-Climate-Change.pdf
Fed action drive migration of financial activity outside banking sector Increasing capital requirements not extinguish those investments That happened following Basel III, prompting considerable concern over shadow banking Fed has less oversight |
017f4e5d8c0538a4e066a6450596ec066a15a8f95297995420e496c15aaf559b | Lane 21 | COVID marks a return to traditional federalism that emphasizes state authority and solves national polarization.
Lane 21 – Attorney Practicing Constitutional and Regulatory Litigation, JD from University of Pennsylvania Cary Law School.
Kaytlin Roholt Lane, “Federalism, Now More Than Ever”, Penn Law Journal Opinion, Summer 2021, https://journal.law.upenn.edu/issue/summer-2021/federalism-now-more-than-ever/
As polarization deepens there is a growing sense something in our political system is broken. a return to normalcy and civility might be federalism . Federalism ensure a harmonious union between states with distinct cultures and political preferences . national government has ballooned the last two decades. COVID has become a paradigm for federalism . . Our system allowed states to innovate and tailor their response a case in point for our system |
046968ec111cdf683aa09c06575e2180b1b7d59498ef03b2955803363219d677 | cuts to Medicaid and SNAP | Cuts would require hundreds of billions of dollars—that kills moderate support.
Kogan ‘3—4 [Bobby Kogan is the Senior Director Of Federal Budget Policy At The Center For American Progress. "Opinion", MSNBC https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/house-republicans-budget-medicaid-snap-cuts-rcna194231 published 3-4-2025, accessed 3-6-2025]
Rep s budget resolution strong public pushback refrain from GOP hundreds of billions in cuts to Medicaid and SNAP. Rep s who support cuts won’t be able to maintain long public will see Rep s eviscerating assistance to help millionaires |
021a4f4cd6e9b40ef9f10bee983261e6ab1c6abe145b4078441028bd53a32fde | Trump disparages economies | 3. Trump economic policy makes green finance impossible, guaranteeing bubbles.
Demarais 24 [Agathe Demarais, senior policy fellow on geoeconomics at the European Council on Foreign Relations, columnist at Foreign Policy, master’s degrees from Sciences Po Paris and Columbia University, “Why China Is Rooting for Trump,” 02-07-24, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/07/china-trump-biden-us-presidential-election-2024/]
battle for influence against China for access to materials crucial for green energy transition , such as cobalt , copper and nickel Trump not help convince economies disparaged as “ shithole countries ”—to supply materials mineral-rich states fear promises have little value Trump’s disdain curbs on immigration , and rhetoric will not break the ice clean tech spared from export controls , but Trump would change this including renewable and battery tech Deprived of markets, U.S. firms have fewer revenues and forced to slash r n d Chinese businesses surpass U.S. firms developing next gen U.S. clean tech retrenchment help China influence standards |
042fcd2b50aa588dadf5a4c4ed0f05844cc01e6a379983ea9ad861a814ff1bc5 | Israel nuclear escalation | 4 – Israel will conduct NC3 attacks, causing miscalc by Russia and China – goes nuclear.
Nivedita Raju & Wilfred Wan 24, Nivedita Raju, Researcher at SIPRI Weapons of Mass Destruction programme; Wilfred Wan, Director of SIPRI Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, PhD, “Escalation Risks at the Space–Nuclear Nexus,” SIPRI Research Policy Paper, February 2024, https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-02/2402_rpp_space-nuclear_nexus.pdf
disruption of GNSS is increasing attributed to Israeli forces in Gaza designations affect the calculus for escalation Given competition and potential to be drawn into confrontation there is high scope for escalation including nuclear use analysis exhibits unprecedented worst-case scenario thinking red lines become blurred due to uncertainties escalation emerges, including nuclear in cyber with grave consequences for all |
01a6bf92bca38d37b0adacc38baafd2886ed890718463a98adc20845b67c550a | Texas republicans secession | 2---AND an independent Texas would go after US oil and military
Holley 22. Peter Holley, Nov 2022. TexasMonthly “Are Texas Republicans Serious About Secession?” https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/are-texas-republicans-serious-about-secession/ ///mosuQ
senator Cruz said how little stood in the way of him changing his mind [on secession.] if there comes a point I think we take NASA, we take the military, we take the oil. ” |
0039efe24e1439a203ce762cba1fa30ab590a224045aac18ee32c810100e6d92 | SEC climate risk disclosure rule support | And widespread
Li 24 [Marie Li, High Meadows Climate Risk Fellow at the Environmental Defense Fund, “Investors, bipartisan former officials, others defend SEC climate risk disclosure rule,” Environmental Defense Fund, 8-22-2024, https://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2024/08/22/investors-bipartisan-former-officials-others-defend-sec-climate-risk-disclosure-rule/]
SEC’s rule has widespread support from a diverse array of stakeholders EDF A F R Sierra Club and NRDC Major institutional investors just a small subset of broad investor support States and policymakers support Members of Congress A bipartisan group of former officials and leading law, finance, and economic scholars public interest organizations and sustainable business coalitions Together show there is widespread support |
012733f37ae0c2735bb9d4b2cbe9be9f1ba3a2f57bf8d41b1ab4862de8032386 | VER regulatory means theoretical | Getting a VER on the wholesale market is entirely theoretical---counterplan is the key first step.
Eisen – AFF SOLVENCY ADVOCATE et al 24 [Joel B. Eisen, Professor of Law, University of Richmond School of Law Felix Mormann, Professor of Law, Dean’s Research Chair, Texas A&M University School of Law; Professor of Engineering, Texas A&M College of Engineering Heather E. Payne, Professor of Law, Seton Hall University School of Law, “VIRTUAL ENERGY”, University of Illinois Law Review, pp. 107-162 (2024), https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4386321]
extensive opportunities for virtual energy production not exist at present creating them present many issues to be sorted out where VER serve everyone would require regulatory means for overseeing sales only exists in theoretical realm |
01860fef29d90974f14c5e7168d0c08e1e217b7cc7d74a7780d0f6e65c2d8c11 | Full year spending bills | Bipart’s key in the lame duck to get a full year extension
Hubbard ’24 - Kaia Hubbard – Kaia Hubbard is a politics reporter for CBS News Digital, based in Washington, D.C. Before coming to CBS News, Kaia worked as a staff writer for U.S. News & World Report, where she wrote about politics with a focus on Congress. She also previously covered courts and reproductive rights. Kaia is a graduate of the University of San Diego -“Congress passes 3-month funding extension to avoid government shutdown” – CBS News - Updated on: September 25, 2024 - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-vote-continuing-resolution-government-shutdown/
Johnson said he would push to approve the full-year spending bills after the election My encouragement to Senate colleagues is work together to get this job done." Whether lawmakers can do so in the lame-duck session remains to be seen Schumer said the three-month extension will give appropriators more time to "fully fund the government before the end of the year acknowledging the bipartisanship that will be required. I hope this positive outcome of bipartisanship can set the tone for more constructive bipartisan work when we return |
02f71e6f966893c22d569a9a7e3d2c7f53385116717d69c8fb3ffb483ff07985 | Derek Tisler | The CP deters AND prevents election interference.
Tisler ’23 [Derek and Lawrence Norden; April 27; counsel, B.A. in economics, Michigan State University, J.D., University of Chicago Law School; Vice President, J.D., NYU School of Law, former chair of the Ohio secretary of state’s bipartisan Election Summit and Conference; Brennan Center, “Securing the 2024 Election,” https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/policy-solutions/securing-2024-election]
CISA along with EAC FBI , and other agencies direct more resources DOJ task force on election bolster its relationships with and provide guidance to local enforcement legislatures make it easier for officials to combat lies, protect workers and guard against cyber laws give officials flexibility to count faster , expand protections restrictions from tampering preempt misinfo adopt measures to prevent insider threats |
036b25e42d5f76d30a0566362e327f2b68d4081838a5baf5d5d37f858e52bf8d | Population growth jeopardizing our future | 3. POPULATION GROWTH---exceeds limits and zeros efficiency gains.
Lowe ’21 [Ian; 12/10/21; Emeritus Professor of Science, Technology and Society and former Head of the School of Science at Griffith University, adjunct professor at Sunshine Coast University and Flinders University; "Population Growth," in Sustainability and the New Economics, p. 107-121]
damaging natural systems population still grow computer model analyse consequences showed limits by 2070 collapse starting by 2030 expanding population put compounding pressure on systems jeopardising our future by not reining in population growth present population already excee d limits life will collapse degrowth offer futures that could be sustainable |
0234a4ce524f0404570b53107dac91559da2462cf70a1867907d906f37b9dd84 | Millan 24 climate journalist | Trump 2.0 locks in existential warming.
Millan 24, climate change journalist (Laura, Zahra Hirji, Olivia Rudgard, Jonathan Gilbert, 2-27-2024, “Trump's Green-Bashing and Europe's Right Put Climate Goals at Risk,” Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-27/trump-s-green-bashing-europe-s-right-put-climate-goals-at-risk)
Trump minimized effects of climate attacked e v and pledged to repeal Biden’s signature law retreating on ambition following hottest year on record shift is mix of backpedaling and backlash what’s at stake is a livable planet Any slow-walking comes at the risk of additional warming Trump would narrow IRA Trump could stymie the climate fight pull out of Paris unravel x o s pause crackdowns of polluters undo regulations and shut down climate initiatives |
0312bd76fe00053c57ef136a9c2e9f57fb5e6b677f92c212d544d8778430b374 | carbon stocks in forests | Carbon pricing incentivizes biomass---worsens emissions and lowers global carbon stocks
SELC 22. Southern Environmental Law Center, Mar 28 2022. Southern Environmental Law Center “New study confirms harmful impacts of biomass industry” https://www.southernenvironment.org/news/new-study-confirms-harmful-impacts-of-biomass/ Accessed8.11.2024///mosuQ
biomass falsely tout clean energy, but emit more carbon than coal, causes damage to forests Cutting forests at scale degrade water quality destroy wildlife habitats logging releases heat-trapping gas worsening the climate crisis reduc carbon stocks in forests bad for climate from start to finish government incentives wrongly categorized biomass as ‘clean energy’ biomass industry not viable if it weren’t for incentives. It is crucial that U.S. not create incentives for this dangerous industry. |
03445dd6e55bfa0cf9498e62f509fb0097a6f2853cf59ad4f38e8795635c7534 | MBI definition Gupta | Given the lack of other meaningful limiters in the resolution, MBI is chokepoint to preserve a tenable role for the neg.
V.B. Gupta 01. Principal Investigator School of Futures Studies and Planning, submitted to EMCaB-Environmental Economics Research Committee, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research. “Market Based Instruments for Regional Air Environment Management at Jamshedpur.” https://www.irade.org/eerc/pdf/IPP_FR_Gupta.pdf.
M b i wide range of mechanism hundreds of individual instruments include fines sanctions linked to CAC laissez-faire approaches consumer advocacy private litigation incentives tax subsidy approaches property rights In a broad sense MBI cover all price-related regulatory instruments harness commercial actors industry farmers transport users population at large |
015c7cb1d9a732c4c3213d11f3f51ea2dd0c32f758ee84ff936ea5e742e7cda4 | US LNG exports | Exports are high now and buoying European energy stability
Eberhart 24 – CEO of Canary LLC, J.D. from Tulane University Law School.
The White House could derail export projects and threaten America's remarkable run export capacity has grown Seven plants are operating with eight under construction the U S is slated to export 160 million tons per year double Qatar Expansion will be critical to keep lights on in Europe to r eplace Russian gas LNG is also critical to reducing emissions in Asia where gas is an alt to coal policy could change the trajectory with serious ramifications for global markets affordable and flexible supply appeals worldwide without long contracts |
00f9261a2f6eb0159e95ea32e5ffe5f8297b430ceceac7e4981282c99badaf78 | war can occur at any stage | There’s zero correlation between decline and war.
Laio ’19 [Jianan; 2019; Shenzhen Nanshan Foreign Language School; International Symposium on Social Science and Management Innovation, “Business Cycle and War: A Literature Review and Evaluation,” vol. 68]
scholars who discussed relationship between cycle and war failed to divide four stages war can occur at any of expansion , crisis , recession , recovery , so it is unrealistic to assume wars at any stage the resources for wars are huge for depression war has reasons in all stages origin is downward pressure which exist during recession or prosperity wars occur in upturn caused by optimism to prevail many wars take place among countries whose economies are still beginning |
041f6168be1da4f683df9cc7e7253addf1f45b3fd8a268981e93b9766db4d8ea | reliance on China | It is a linear relationship---Decreased cooperation with the US leads to certain reliance on China.
de Araujo Baptista 21, Commander, Brazilian Navy. MA thesis, USMC Command and Staff College, Quantico, VA. (Alexandro, 04-15-2021, "The Influence of China in Brazil: How it can change military cooperation between Brazil and the United States", The United States Defense Technical Information Center, https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1177924.pdf)
if the US chooses disengagement with L A countries that will encourage countries to become closer with China The risk for L A states is if they increase interdependence with China they increase unsustainable debts becoming dependent on the export of commodities increase corruption and fall short of international standards for the environment |
01944878febb6248c3ccfc78ce9899fd4b6b3de53adeff7368b0d559651728a8 | energy policy production distribution consumption | 3) Fidelity: Only we have evidence intending to define and exclude in the context of energy policy. That’s distinct from climate policy AND proves only our aff is T.
Cătuți 22 – Ph.D. Candidate, University of York.
energy policy refers to production distribution and consumption of energy climate policy covers regulation of emissions |
041e924d7d6ee1503972a98689b4d1495dd056ccde9a2455b823b8c35368f6d0 | carbon capture not feasible | EMPRIRCS. It historically fails.
Mark Schlosberg 21, JD in economics, National Organizing Director for Food & Water Watch, 7-20-2021, “Top 5 Reasons Carbon Capture And Storage (CCS) Is Bogus,” https://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/2021/07/20/top-5-reasons-carbon-capture-and-storage-ccs-is-bogus/, oj
After billions of investments there are only colossal failures the largest plant underperformed D o E spent $6.9 billion to demonstrate feasibility little came of this investment. Biden wants to shift its focus to carbon capture there’s no reason to think the outcome will be different . |
010af80fda40a71b535c4713abdcb94667f3b6f2892f57cbb71d2cee1ce70cd6 | Trump influence OPEC | C. TRUMP.
Irina Slav 11/7. Writer for oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry. “Citi Sees Oil Prices Dropping to $60 Under Trump.” 11/7/24. https://oilprice.com/Energy/nergy-General/Citi-Sees-Oil-Prices-Dropping-to-60-Under-Trump.html
analysts forecast Brent crude average $60 per barrel driven lower by incoming administration tariffs higher production driving factors Trump may influence OPEC+ to convince group to bring supply back presidency lead to decline in geopolitical tensions further contributing to lower prices pro-growth energy policies depress prices deficits sustained with debt The government itself acknowledges prices and spending will squeeze its finances It expects shortfalls through 2027 debt-to-GDP ratio is nearly 30% the government needs crude prices to be over $96 a barrel to balance its budget The figure is even higher when PIF’s domestic spending is taken into account |
0098cee22997dd1f6ce109bc1b01924095c8a13a7fa5e708268b684266a7e20f | Cognitive biases bad for policy | 2---Cognitive biases---creates failed research and policymaking.
Zayne Seibert 21. Writer citing Bjorn Lomberg, former director of the Danish government’s Environmental Assessment Institute. “Cooling down environmental panic: Are we biased in the way we approach climate change? .” B.Bias. 12-20-2021. https://bbiasblog.com/2021/12/20/cooling-down-environmental-panic-are-we-biased-in-the-way-we-approach-climate-change/
sense of urgency is precisely the issue strong fear response making us more susceptible to biases in our thinking it is necessary to be honest catastrophic framing can easily be reflected in inefficient and expensive policymaking stories gain traction scenario is highly unlikely the issue as manageable in the long-term while shedding light on sensational journalism |
0066c82b4e3fbec6d2aeb4c8cffd1cea5aa43cc5fdedfecf62d66283922cc452 | revisionist power contention | China is revisionist power---military modernization causes war
Jagannath P. Panda, Research Fellow and Coordinator of the East Asia Centre at MP-IDSA, New Delhi, 5-19-20, ‘“China as a Revisionist Power in Indo-Pacific and India’s Perception: A Power-Partner Contention” JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY CHINA2020, AHEAD-OF-PRINT, 1-17https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epub/10.1080/10670564.2020.1766906?needAccess=true
China’s revisionist power are appositely clear fast-track infrastructure through the BRI assertive claims in maritime domains claims over land territories attempts to create a distinct order through international institutions the tag of revisionism appears justified an article by the Chinese M F A highlights the country’s dissatisfaction dissatisfaction is no secret debates in China are center around revisions until China’s military match US, major war in not foreseen a revisionist power will ‘ employ military force’ |
040a77ac3a3d9c4d95b478370bd2cdb57bce39197a43863ddda006e8ecf25c90 | Carbon tax meets target | Solves despite Trump.
Hafstead and Chen 17, [Marc Hafstead joined RFF in 2013 from Stanford University. He is an RFF fellow and director of the Carbon Pricing Initiative and the Climate Finance and Financial Risk Initiative. His research has primarily focused on the evaluation and design of federal and state-level climate and energy policies using sophisticated multi-sector models of the US economy. With Stanford Professor and RFF University Fellow Lawrence H. Goulder, he wrote Confronting the Climate Challenge: US Policy Options (Columbia University Press) to evaluate the environmental and economic impacts of federal carbon taxes, cap-and-trade programs, clean energy standards, and gasoline. His research has also analyzed the distributional and employment impacts of carbon pricing and the design of tax adjustment mechanisms to reduce the emissions uncertainty of carbon tax policies. His paper “Impacts of a Carbon Tax across U.S. Household Income Groups: What Are the Equity-Efficiency Trade-Offs?” (with Larry Goulder, GyuRim Kim, and Xianling Long) won the Journal of Public Economics 2021 Atkinson Award for best paper published in the journal between 2018 and 2020. Hafstead has been cited in the popular press, including the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, Axios, and CNNMoney. Yunguang Chen. “The Paris Agreement under Trump and the Merits of an Economy-Wide Carbon Tax.” January 17, 2017. https://www.resources.org/common-resources/the-paris-agreement-under-trump-and-the-merits-of-an-economy-wide-carbon-tax/]//KAK
carbon tax necessary to meet reduction target assuming Trump does away with Clean Power Plan In scenario that reg s are scrapped , we find econ wide carbon tax hit the target |
026f58f4412a005c342a449691078d0e961e5f4a4f71578fbf98e535261aae62 | Kendall Phillips critique | The 1AC’s value stands on its own---responding to it with judgement and the ballot is a hollow validation that siphons off political energy and draws them into the oppressive gaze of the academy.
Dr. Kendall R. Phillips 99, Professor of Communication at Central Missouri State University, PhD in Speech Communication from Pennsylvania State University, MA in Speech Communication from Central Missouri State University, BS in Psychology and Sociology from Southwest Baptist University, “Rhetoric, Resistance, and Criticism: A Response to Sloop and Ono”, Philosophy & Rhetoric, Volume 32, Number 1, p. 96-101
concern centers around the role of the critic positioning communities as objects of investigation the critic is the active agent of change and discourse becomes instrumental Their suggestion that out-law communities need the academic critic contradicts the disruptive nature Ono fail to offer an adequate argument for " taking speaking out of the streets and studying it in the classroom treating it less as protest " and as an object for analysis within the academy without addressing whether the critic should be examining in the first place are we to believe members are prepared to be brought into the arena of surveillance perhaps re-presentation will bestow legitimacy Nonetheless , the effect is destructive to siphon energy into academic practice, we destroy a cathexis recognition take the place of material opportunities But, will legitimation create any changes in conditions the critic is focusing on hidden texts and " rendering comprehensible" Turning covert discourses into objects of analyses risk subjecting them to the gaze of the dominant and the power relations of the academy |
00a247dab04ffb2b7f8537bdff8e1d7d722936f943503c9499725bb4b9605c53 | Russia weaponizing exports | That’s key to maintain international non-prolif norms and break Russian dominance.
Ahn et. al 23 – Alan Ahn, Deputy Director for Nuclear for Third Way’s Climate and Energy Program, Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy (MALD) from Tufts University; Josh Freed, led Third Way’s clean energy and climate advocacy efforts; Ryan Norman, Policy Advisor for Third Way's Climate and Energy Program; Rowen Price, Policy Advisor for Nuclear Energy at Third Wave, 11/7/23, “Nuclear Fuel is a National Security Imperative”, https://www.thirdway.org/memo/nuclear-fuel-is-a-national-security-imperative
Building out nuclear fuel infrastructure is pressing given dependence on Russia uranium increase nuclear security and proliferation risks. Strengthening confidence serves as a linchpin to US policies in countering spread buildout meet not only domestic needs but also allies exports generate revenue and mitigating proliferation risks international presence essential so we set highest standards on nonproliferation new and emerging competitors offering technologies outside export controls meaning transactions do not require licenses bilateral cooperation etc Russia weaponizing exports to project influence Building out capacity important step leverage highest global standards for nonproliferation Without nuclear fuel collapse |
0432790ea1a0b32047019712b39ce096fcadf87aaccccba17ffbac6ba7e4067e | plan bad for economy | The plan shreds the economy.
Jack Mintz 23, President’s Fellow of the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary, Financial Post, “Jack Mintz: Carbon taxes make the Bank of Canada’s job harder,” Financial Post, August 18, 2023, https://financialpost.com/opinion/carbon-taxes-bank-of-canada-job-harder, DOA: 9-25-24, JA
energy inflation lead to prolonged upside pressure on inflation carbon policies contribute to higher interest rates Monetary policy is focused on inflation expectations expectations that are above target push banks to raise rates energy price important part of transportation critical for every industry cause firms to raise prices to maintain profit and workers bargain for higher wages carbon price shocks become embedded in expectations a ri se in one percent resulted in prices to rise 0.2 taxes that were $50 added 0. 4 points to realized inflation |
03b34de71ab13f682effca380c6a1066dbc867790ecd76100fe66bb399a78c1f | no policy platform beyond trump | The debate reinforced that she has no policy platform beyond Trump bad.
Coster and Reid 9/11. Helen Coster (U.S. Presidential Election Correspondent at Reuters, Princeton University graduate) and Tim Reid, 9/11/2024, “Some undecided voters not convinced by Harris after debate with Trump,” Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/some-undecided-voters-not-convinced-by-harris-after-debate-with-trump-2024-09-11/
Harris need to provide more detailed policy proposals to win voters Harris vague on the economy converts trusted him more on the economy Harris didn't provide clarity on her policies |
023cae6f09c8bd45277c768c8bab13a4ac325aa49ae8fc1245cd809ba147e6cc | climate extinction likely | Cap sustainable---profit motive drives tech innovation and makes resources infinite---only way to solve environmental collapse and extinction.
McAfee 19—cofounder and codirector of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy at the MIT Sloan School of Management, former professor at Harvard Business School and fellow at Harvard’s Berkman Center for Internet and Society (Andrew, “Looking Ahead: The World Cleanses Itself This Way,” More from Less: The Surprising Story of How We Learned to Prosper Using Fewer Resources—and What Happens Next, Chapter 14, pg 278-292, Kindle, dml)
As poor countries get richer institutions improve a i accurately forecast the " climate 3-D printing generates no waste machine learning determine substances to reduce emissions more efficient energy and shift away Digital tools increase efficiency champions of dematerialization joined by nuclear fusion climate causing extinction due of non-linearity , cascading effects feedbacks , multiplicative factors and tipping points abrupt ice sheet collapse cause rapid sea rise’ drying forests increases fires ocean s release methane producing runaway even modest warming expose population to heat stress’ making extinction more likely more important to avoid by a trillion times . |
032b568c639d8adc33d2b1f8658f4e7750a5224f3b5b1735276df86d9e1bcca4 | Policies differentiate | “Market-based” instruments excludes subsidies. They are exclusively carbon pricing, tradable standards, EIS, CES / RPS.
Cleary et al. ’21 [Kathryne, Carolyn Fischer, and Karen Palmer; 2021; Senior Research Associate at Resources for the Future (RFF), Washington, DC, USA, and works on RFF’s Future of Power Initiative and Graduate of Yale School of Forest Management; Canada 150 Research Chair in Climate Economics, Innovation and Policy at the University of Ottawa; Handbook on Electricity Markets, ed. Jean-Michel Glachant, Paul L. Joskow and Michael G. Pollitt, “Tools and policies to promote decarbonization of the electricity sector,” Edward Elgar Publishing]
MARKET-BASED MECHANISMS Carbon Pricing carbon tax, or cap-and-trade do not pick winners Tradable Standards Emissions intensity standard Clean energy standard Renewable portfolio standards policies differentiate Targeting Renewables Feed-in tariffs Tax credits Priority dispatch Net metering Subsidies to tech producers Energy storage targets Targeting Nuclear Phase-outs Targeting Coal INCENTIVIZING ENERGY EFFICIENCY Subsidies Information and Labelling Nudges Energy Efficiency Equipment Standards Energy Efficiency Resource Standards and White Certificates |
0045256964426c8822cb65a516a78945a6bf28109c706e88d79fcbcebaec0bee | geoengineering distracts from reducing emissions | Their CP doesn’t address the root cause of warming emissions. – Their card doesn’t assume David Keith, the creator of this theory, still wants us to reduce global carbon emissions.
Justin Mikulka 18, Director of Communications at Oilfield Witness , BS in Engineering from Cornell, DeSmog, " Warning of Solar Geoengineering's Dangers, Group Recommends a Global Ban," Dec 9, 2018, https://www.desmog.com/2018/12/09/warning-dangers-solar-radiation-management-geoengineering-global-ban/, Accessed: 09-29-2024 ~ WZE
Earth’s climate is warming because greenhouse gases with carbon dioxide topping that list solar radiation management does not address drivers o climate change would mask warming temporarily Geoengineering perpetuates false belief that we need techno-fixes Even David Keith , shares concern this work distract from required efforts to reduce global carbon emissions. |
02681b85a69b99f65861e88d877893bbe9f608370596112357f953b004bf0423 | Existential risks underrated | Existential risks are underrated.
Jonathan B. Wiener 16, Law and Public Policy Professor at Duke University, University Fellow at the Resources for the Future, Past President of the Society for Risk Analysis, the scientific committee member at the International Risk Governance Council, “The Tragedy of the Uncommons: On the Politics of Apocalypse”, Global Policy, 7(S1): Too Big to Handle: Interdisciplinary Perspectives on the Question of Why Societies Ignore Looming Disasters, 6-6-16, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1758-5899.12319, Stras
ultra risks are not experienced it is experts, applying quant methods while public seems less interested Describing risks in a speech is less effective in stimulating reaction the prefrontal cortex draw on experience brain relies on ‘available’ events even for analytic about scenarios unavailability’ neglect compound disdain for warnings second is magnitude psych large impact yields ‘ numbing’ as lives rise respondents feel overwhelmed The ‘end of the world’ may be too much disabling rather than mobilizing people deflect problems so large they would consume capacity public may be eager to save the refugee less willing to save a large unidentified population ex risks lack a single individual |
00d19b80e32d3e82f3c21b7f59d882672b3e85ad327d8235ae87247f562700b1 | radical reimagining of old worlds | 4. Quan is a criticism of conflating the government as deserving of rule leadership or authority. Quan never says we can’t criticize the state then propose something else it ought do instead, which is what the resolution requires.
Quan 17 (H.L.T. Quan is an Associate Professor of Justice and Social Inquiry in the School of Social Transformation at Arizona State University, 2017, Chapter 11: “It’s Hard to Stop Rebels That Time Travel: Democratic Living and the Radical Reimagining of Old Worlds,” Futures of Black Radicalism, Verso, pp. 173-193, https://www.education.pitt.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Quan-ungovernability.pdf)
State evasion and avoidance are deviant behavior that necessitates disciplining the ungovernable conscripted as a problem in need of being annihilated the framing of the ungovernable is used to justify permanent wars and genocide This suggests an ideography that owes its pathos to an epistemological ordering that relies on state addiction This affliction is a pathology that renders its sufferers dependent on the state The symptoms are many and obvious: most prominent is the tendency to conflate government with governing, authority with leadership, and rule with submission no sovereignty without violence state addicts dependent on state for expressions and terms of engagement imaginary domains dependent on state’s projections . |
014a62e0d91ddad4642c4f85ca594e96b4e86b7af0050125efc7b04fd30d094a | Carattini 21 | The plan IS the abrupt shock their evidence references.
Carattini 21, every author of this paper has a PhD and is a professor or assistant professor in the Department of Economics at Georgia State University. (*Stefano, **Garth Heutel, and ***Givi Melkadze, “Climate Policy, Financial Frictions, and Transition Risk,” NBER Working Paper 28525, p. 3-4, http://www.nber.org/papers/w28525)
an unanticipated carbon tax triggers a transition away from brown production With financial frictions the tax can contract both sectors a recession climate policy has a negative spillover effect on the green sector The carbon tax lowers the value of carbon-intensive assets asset stranding banks are forced to cut lending |
031053728ea4161e58227c90f9ff552ee2b2a13e5819bf00c13548c9a27d7665 | carbon measurements are science | their justification for the science is IPCC and their $25 tax is based on meeting paris commitments---those are political not scientific assessments.
Raquel Machaqueiro 17. Dept of Anthropology @ George Washington University, 2017, “The semiotics of carbon: Atmospheric space, fungibility, and the production of scarcity”, Economic Anthropology, 4: 82-93
idea of space already there agreed in Kyoto (or Paris) are political decisions even if carbon measurements are science carbon as an exchange unit is a semiotic process It symbolizes emptiness IPCC estimates are “ black-boxed admitted to be gross oversimplifications people reinforces semiotic process by reasserting fungibility and atmospheric emptiness |
0108c6d20d98ffebd25f17552db6f738b88220bfff7699aeafb891defa980eb9 | touch replaces logic | It’s called geohaptics, a cultivation of new relations among the earth and it’s inhabitants. By thinking through touch rather than logic, the binary categories such as human/nonhuman cease to make sense. They are replaced with a new kind of freedom to think and be in the world whose benefits cannot be measured. This exists in opposition to the speculation of modern-day racial capitalism, which necessitates the division of beings into discrete subjects in order to turn them into resources to be traded on the market. By expanding this notion of subjectivity and decentering liberal personhood we speculate a world where it is impossible for systems of imperial racial capitalism to exist.
Tanaka 23. “Black Feminist Geohaptics and the Broken Earth” Shouhei Tanaka is a PhD candidate in English at the University of California, Los Angeles. His work has appeared or is forthcoming in PMLA, ASAP/Journal, Modernism/modernity, Modern Fiction Studies, ISLE: Interdisciplinary Studies in Literature and Environment, and elsewhere. //kgn
imagine a sensuous geology whereby bodies intimately interface with inhuman lifeworlds through haptic wayfinding the Anthropocene’s geographies of power, unearthing how the categories of the human, inhuman, and more than human are generated across race, gender, and matter . literary imaginaries of the haptic in Black speculative fiction attend to the racial politics of the Anthropocene and the centrality of sensory praxis to ecological thought ecological touch—or geohaptics imagine new forms of worldmaking that contest the Anthropocene’s racial ecologies of power describing how sensory experiences “soften borders of individual bodies geohaptics crafts new planetary futures of environmental liberation for Black life free of the racial capitalocene Black feminist geohaptics assembles attunement more-than-human placemaking praxes that upend the ontological partitions between human/nonhuman, underwrite Western colonial metaphysics speculative fictions imagine new perception and forms of political subjectivity Touch animates new attunements to more-than-human lifeworlds; in turn, nonhuman lifeworlds decenter the human sensorium as the proprietary seat of liberal humanist personhood . haptic imagination orients sense as intersubjective processes through which bodies encounter more-than-human forces, thereby displacing humanist power perception make placemaking possible Black feminist relationality forges these novel ecologies by engaging, and undoing, the categories of the (in)human that propel “matrix of domination” Inventing alternative, speculative ecologies of more-than-human intimacies transformation is made possible by reading the planet as a sensate archive whose histories are made legible through touch , in which more-than-human relationalities are cultivated through an ethics of care, relation, and sensuality. Sense and sensation become infrastructures of care that forge novel ecologies of relationality emancipated from the matrix of domination. and crystallizes the entangled past, present, and future within the thickened ontology of the present. |
006285ff2254df1433b1261c8f9e5e55b5841e5c6c2d27eaacc687e9bd0c2d00 | Indigenous autonomy | White Saviorism DA: the perm deflates Indigenous projects of decolonization and engages in white saviorism by participating in piece-meal reform, proving the aff dismisses Indigenous autonomy.
Hernandez 22 (Dr. Jessica Hernandez is a transnational Indigenous scholar, scientist, and community advocate based in the Pacific Northwest. She has an interdisciplinary academic background ranging from marine sciences to forestry. Her work is grounded in her Indigenous cultures and ways of knowing. Hernandez advocates for climate, energy, and environmental justice through her scientific and community work and strongly believes that Indigenous sciences can heal our Indigenous lands. She is the founder of Piña Soul, SPC, an environmental consulting and artesanias hybrid business that supports Black- and Indigenous-led conservation and environmental projects through community mutual aids and microgrants. “Fresh Banana Leaves : Healing Indigenous Landscapes through Indigenous Science 9781623176068, 2021027787, 2021027788, 9781623176051, 1623176069 - DOKUMEN.PUB.” Dokumen.pub, dokumen.pub, 2022, dokumen.pub/fresh-banana-leaves-healing-indigenous-landscapes-through-indigenous-science-9781623176068-2021027787-2021027788-9781623176051-1623176069.html. Accessed 30 July 2024.)//TM
we read stories that highlight our communities’ vulnerability these stories end up harming us more because they create cycle of white saviorism that makes people assume we need someone to save us roots itself in “Brown victimhood that urges European descendants to take moral duty to save oppressed founded on white egocentric myth that there is something Brown people must need that only white people give Indigenous peoples do not need saving What we need is people to take responsibility fo actions and oppression enacted against us. White saviorism dismisses autonomy and resilience as government does not have best interest This is why we become resourceful to help families and communities We need to move away from white saviorism as it is a modern day version of manifest destiny What we demand is for us to regain autonomy to manage and oversee natural resources |
027caacbb65c4c40ac2bbd6b99c1c33a862691e7fe2edf1623ee43a720c5e184 | David Elliot uranium shortages | Expansion = peak uranium
Elliot 11 [David Elliott is Professor of Technology Policy at the Open University, “Nuclear waste- no place to go,” 2011, http://blog.environmentalresearchweb.org/2011/02/19/nuclear-waste-no-place-to-go]
If a global nuclear renaissance occurs, demand for uranium will grow already shortages peak uranium’ is not far off Energy Watch Group suggest 2035 options should be kept open technological advances make recycling a better choice in the future storage facility, from which spent fuel could be removed later |
04600022b12dd88a826494e33276384fd5dd4d2a8c9a2ddf4f608c026e66157f | government regulation protects from existential threats | Those challenges vector existential risks---especially inequality, chemicals, pandemics and innovation
Oreskes et al 23 [Naomi Oreskes, Professor of the History of Science and Affiliated Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Harvard University, PhD Stanford University; and Erik Conway, historian of science and technology at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory at the California Institute of Technology, PhD University of Minnesota; “The High Cost of the “Free” Market,” Chapter 15, and “Conclusion,” The Big Myth: How American Business Taught Us to Loathe Government and Love the Free Market, Bloomsbury Publishing, 2023, ISBN 978-1-63557-358-9, no page #s] *[language modifications in brackets]
steps to avoid disease not rely on the private sector by then too late in a pandemic Covid proves will be incapacitated by people who restrict government power Trump’s an acceleration But goes farther underreliance on government have cost dearly endocrine-disrupting chemicals have an array of adverse effects blaming “capitalism” hides that inequality driven by deregulation innovation Nearly all from the government the state with us for the future Dishonesty and denial explain how resilient despite critique forbid fraud but permit ad s to exaggerate guard rails rest with government isn’t any other to do it amid existential threats corporations committing to social and environmental responsibility perpetuates myths makes many resistant to any governmental response , even to an existential threat And argue to rely on unregulated markets Markets are tools silly to abandon but need Regulations tools protecting our survival |
017d930eedb2385487ab57d2932f1d7dbed67d4d814565343272fc482edc7f98 | worldmaking intergenerational fight for justice | Worldmaking takes up an intergenerational fight for justice, not a view of the historical march of progress. Neither the dominance of the world we inhabit nor its transformation are inevitable.
Dr. Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò 22. Associate Professor, Philosophy, Georgetown University; PhD, Philosophy, UCLA. “The Arc of the Moral Universe.” Chapter 6 in Reconsidering Reparations. Oxford University Press. 2022. https://global.oup.com/academic/product/reconsidering-reparations-9780197508893?cc=us&lang=en&.
ancestors acted in faith and responsibility they did know the possibility of a good, beautiful thing years into the future depended on actions today they did their part in a multigenerational project there is the possibility of setbacks The years following the Civil War despite chattel slavery were some of the most progressive in history Thousands of enslaved African Americans withdrew labor in a “General Strike,” 180,000 served the Union Army Despite discrimination in military courts Black people were first able to bear witness against whites in military schools they first had access to integrated education emancipated African-Americans worked alongside Radical Republican party to codify change Radical Republicans rewrote Constitutions of ten states making massive structural changes radicals abolished property for voting and public office states eliminated imprisonment as response to debt The Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments established birthright citizenship and equal protection and prohibited disenfranchisement on race as far as the letter of the law there were eight Black Congressmen Black people wielded unprecedented power Some wanted to take plantation s and allocate plots Due to pressure from Republicans Congress authorized forty-acre plots and the Freedmen’s Bureau to distribute for “ all manner ” of problems Southern states enacted Black Codes Johnson blocked land redistribution forty acres never arrived Democrats seized Redemption Hayes ordered federal troops return to barracks We refer to gains as progress as if time and morality move in lockstep This is not so progress anticolonial movements in Asia and Africa Civil Rights transnational queer liberation are not irrevocable ambitions of worldmaking appear daunting we should resist all-or-nothing thinking about justice No previous generation won outright , in one stroke Haitian Revolution did not end racialized chattel slavery they eradicated its worst form from one island same of abolitionist comrades work of a just world was not completed , but advanced French Russian Revolution did help uproot specific local systems of injustice and provided inspiration to future generations anti-colonial struggles did not end stratifications they did win independence a generation pass on things if we in generations that follow pick up what they left that can be enough . bending the arc of the universe make use of miraculous capacity to join actions across time and space in our generation climate crisis is existential — for humans and non - human s especially for Black and Indigenous peoples set for wholesale destruction if we fail in climate justice gains our ancestors made will be lost . How do we will ourselves to do hard work that may only be completed by descendants? commitment to the continuity of past people is powerful there’s plenty of reason for haste But we do not need complete transformation in our lifetime to have achieved something important accumulation global racial empire built are vast think scale differently generations who deal with this world who have a world at all depends on intermediate wins If we can’t do it in our generation it does not follow there is nothing to do except burn the world down ancestors gave opportunities on purpose operating in full knowledge they would never see the goal The perspective ground revolutionary patience while rejecting complacency This is available to everyone Most ancestors in the genealogical sense include people on right and wrong sides of history what makes a ancestor in the moral sense is our relationship now whether we pay respect There are those who precede us whose imprint we reject there are those whose projects we continue whose steps order ours these latter are ancestors in the moral sense This inheritance relates me more to white Quaker abolitionists who struggled with enslaved Africans against empire than Yoruba rulers who colluded with it Many white people descended from slaveholders many of abolitionists dissenters Their responsibility is no different to decide which paths are available to decide which lead toward justice many of us owe struggles to genealogical ancestors all of us owe it to our moral descendants who inherit the world our ancestors constructed this world We owe it to descendants to rebuild it, in a new one. |
03d91050fcafac9388ab9c7fc6eb2ad6d63d56e3c71ff4904588ba9d644356f9 | AI risk outweighs | AI risk outweighs.
Dr. David Denkenberger 20, PhD in Engineering, Assistant Professor at Tennessee State University, with Alexei Turchin, advisory board member at the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, contributor at the Science for Life Extension Foundation, “Classification of Global Catastrophic Risks Connected with Artificial Intelligence”, https://philpapers.org/rec/TURCOG-2
probability and seriousness of AI failures increase with time AI is extremely powerful and unpredictable millions of times more powerful than nuclear weapons existence could create multiple global risks most we can't currently imagine The sheer number of failure modes suggests there are more |
01141500469f096a2ff97dd457220e6bfb5a0f584a5630f50f3d205021492c53 | US china nuclear war | US-China cold war goes nuclear.
Lyons 24 (, M. J. (2024) War with China: A View from Early 2024. https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Recent-Publications/Display/Article/3738629/war-with-china-a-view-from-early-2024/ (Accessed: August 23, 2024). Marco J. Lyons is assistant chief of staff for plans at US Army Pacific in Hawaii. He is a 2021 Harvard University national security fellow, a 2020 Massachusetts Institute of Technology national security fellow, and a 2014 Naval Postgraduate School graduate. His articles on military strategy, land power, and operational concepts can be found at RealClearDefense.)-rahulpenu
conventional military balance in China’s favor deterrence will weaken escalation dynamics become unpredictable To avoid losing the US will become more dependent on capabilities Beijing will interpret as highly escalatory Washington pursue more horizontal and vertical escalation Beijing will have more and better options for using nuclear weapons to dominate the escalation dynamic |
0314dad2cb56aa28e1b68ca877976a089d09e4ad2a8aff0f0f809e1f93af7eae | price matters for emissions | No circumvention.
Steven Chun 21. Engineer at Tapestry, a company working on integrating renewable electricity into the grid, B.A., Computer Science and Economics at Dartmouth University, January 21, 2021, “Carbon Pricing and its Progressive Discontents,” https://blog.stevenchun.me/2021/01/Carbon-Pricing-and-its-Progressive-Discontents/)
price matters If don’t set it high because lobbyists had their way, you don’t see emissions reductions studies show even lower prices, have large effects . every year the price goes up, and even if you started low, you eased into a price exceeding a hundred |
015c09ef3cc9da136b63d33715d40c8ddc6d3d3d266a16ef6958cebd9bbe8215 | microplastics affect soil ecosystem | Bees are uniquely effected
Ziani et. al. 23 [Khaled, Department of Clinical Laboratory and Food Safety, Faculty of Pharmacy, “Carol Davila” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 020956 Bucharest, Romania. “Microplastics: A Real Global Threat for Environment and Food Safety: A State of the Art Review” https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9920460/]
environment is increasingly invaded by microplastics bees can be samplers Due to increased sensitivity and large flight area Bees bring pollutants into their hive where they accumulate microplastics significant potential to contaminate plants presence prevent the proper absorption of nutrients change the biomass of plants smaller particles greater exposure ; affecting the entire soil ecosystem |
03eb75b008637df5dea17eb79a8407b6332d1ae86b1c33d683311686d2c07c25 | war powers bad | Unchecked war powers cause conflict escalation globally.
Ted Galen Carpenter 22. Senior Fellow at CATO. “Congress Is Willingly Abdicating Its War Powers Again.” 6/14/22. https://www.cato.org/commentary/congress-willingly-abdicating-its-war-powers-again
The Constitution gives Congress authority Yet the U S has launched a dozen presidential wars T he failure of Congress has been dereliction of duty Congressional attitudes could lead to dangerous entanglements Ukraine and Taiwan There is surging sentiment to replace ambiguity with clarity There is absence of willingness to rein Biden as he deepens involvement in Russia abdication of the war power has been a factor in the proliferation of ill ‐ conceived disastrous interventions |
03448850dee2607c22584cdd21e9e441b0f3395da8dd3a327087c3d45f51427f | Reyer Gerlagh 2020 | The AFF causes a green paradox.
Reyer Gerlagh 20. Department of Economics, Tilburg University, the Netherlands and Oslo Centre for Research on Environmental friendly Energy (CREE) , Roweno J.R.K. Heijmans Department of Economics, Tilburg University, the Netherlands , Knut Einar Rosendahl §School of Economics and Business of the Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Norway, Statistics Norway, and the Oslo Centre for Research on Environmental friendly Energy (CREE), “Endogenous Emission Caps Always Produce a Green Paradox∗”, https://www.tse-fr.eu/sites/default/files/TSE/documents/sem2020/environment/rosendahl.pdf
any system with quantity endogenous cap produces a green paradox increases aggregate emissions paradox may be substantial, especially if demand anticipated today announcement of future abatement can invert the long-run effects from a reduction increase in emissions demand reduction measures at any period If market foresees future demand reduction anticipating increase cumulative emissions The green paradox we consider is stronger than the classic one caused by an artificial market constructed to support climate policies |
030dd75e2af2b3e95cefe32eb66f624c426152a2efbd1b2f550cbebb6dc31f91 | self sufficiency major concern | Renewables are phasing out fossil fuels.
McMeekin ’23 [David; March 10; Junior Research Fellow in Physics and a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Fellow at the University of Oxford; St. Edmund Hall, “The Inevitable Energy Transition,” https://www.seh.ox.ac.uk/blog/the-inevitable-energy-transition]
Ukrain caused major shift in tensions prices soared due to restrictions emphasised need to become self-sufficient resides in transition utility bids at lower price ranges Enabling cost competitiveness cost of p v plummeted self-sufficiency major concern |
0322db37f8a2022fa6bcd3104c72cf0a48635efca0d5726a7752a47a53c86290 | existential risks climate pandemics financial | That experimental policymaking shores up Fed credibility and expertise necessary to avoid a slew of existential risks.
Peter Conti-Brown & David Wishnick 21. Assistant Professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Nonresident Fellow in Economics Studies at the Brookings Institution. Academic Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania Law School Center for Technology, Innovation & Competition. “Technocratic Pragmatism, Bureaucratic Expertise, and the Federal Reserve.” The Yale Law Journal. Vol. 130. No. 3. https://www.yalelawjournal.org/feature/technocratic-pragmatism-bureaucratic-expertise-and-the-federal-reserve#_ftnref10
some advocate expansion of its powers to new problems , such as climate Fed should not fear acting at outer edge of authority Failures to develop new expertise undermine ability to deliver mandates “ technocratic pragmatism to live up to Congress’s ambitions its ambit must change encourages experimentation requires guardrails focus away from coercive powers focuses on how the Fed should develop expertise to address new challenges that at present are not at the core of agency but loom menacingly These are existential threaten global security climate pandemics financial crises racism , cybersecurity and others require creative solutions time is running out agencies develop from experience enacting policy into future policymaking build expertise to be effective implementors of policy experimentalist Fed would embrace goal evolution responsive to complex problems permits Fed to anticipate , mitigate resolve existential threats |
01d7e3586f3c2f35693dfc200d656b9ed7429c52b0af10952a2b6304246b7304 | fragmentation and future crises | Global fragmentation and future crises make economic crash inevitable.
Kristalina Georgieva, 8-22-2023, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, "The Price of Fragmentation," Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/price-fragmentation-global-economy-shock, KL
cooperation is in retreat the world is witnessing fragmentation national security considerations job losses and inequality fueled social tensions protectionism Another pandemic could push the world into crisis . Military conflict could disrupt markets climate is introducing shocks debt is putting sustainability at risk fragmentation could reduce GDP by seven percent in 2019, countries imposed 1,000 restrictions on trade; in 2022 3,000 Fragmentation can disrupt markets and create food and energy insecurity neoliberal regulation created patchwork of competition that depresses global demand capital’s mobility undermines local production by increasing consumption of imported commodities market has been prevented from falling deeply by cheap debt overaccumulation with speculative financial bubbles is underpinned by zero-sum logic of competitive wage advantage nationalism is the effect of globalisation volatility implies uncertainty by importing overseas labour foreign forces cast as the cause escalating mistrust and competition spill over into international war |
01e7692dded81dfcf79365077d991625e86d8c68d10624ad73541f22f298e23b | Dana Cloud | The 1AC is a discursive challenge to violence that ultimately de-materializes its praxis and locks the aff into a rejection of organizing and mass struggle
Cloud ‘01. Dana Cloud is a Professor of Communication at Texas [“The Affirmative Masquerade,” 2001, URL: http://www.acjournal.org/holdings/vol4/iss3/special/cloud.htm]//dkp
discourse theories left behind materialism’s conceptual tools an unwarranted pessimism about transforming at the level of the economy and state it is argued mass movements are no longer effective theories encourage scholars and activists to abandon commitment to crafting oppositional political blocs with instrumental and revolutionary potentia l . we recognize agency as an illusion of humanism and settle for playing with identities in excess in no way combating real existing world classes produce rhetorics social differences operate within regimes of exploitation , so we can change them. for producing transformative knowledges |
03a5735ec33a8ae43931cf2b2fda0c7e20313cabc93a6825650c53ec623ecac5 | counterweight to partisanship | It creates a counterweight that replaces partisanship with expertise.
Barkow ’21 [Rachel; 2021; Professor of Law at New York University; Fordham Law Review, “The Wholesale Problem with Congress: The Dangerous Decline of Expertise in the Legislative Process,” vol. 90]
experts in policy does change content, even with politic s The absence yield partisanship and makes a difference . Experts shape laws and overcome biases a " counterweight to partisanship ." experts have just that effect existence offers hope expert s can be rejuvenated expert s in Congress offer help Congress is limited in abilities This mean more effort in legislative history to spell out assumptions behind laws |
02b5e3a8d1cff6384c24ddfe50e1961f32d6fa3f0332abdca88145ffb0f7f460 | Market driven decarbonization colonial imaginary | The resolution’s move to center market-driven decarbonization and clean energy policy is a commitment to a colonial imaginary that intensifies ecological destruction, resource extraction, and devastates indigenous communities in the Global South. Any energy transition initiated under green colonialism generates sacrifice zones to sustain the Global North’s economic and carbon neutral ambitions.
Bringel & Svampa 24 (Breno Bringel is a Brazilian-Spanish activist-scholar, teaches Political Sociology at IESP-UERJ Senior Fellow at the University Complutense de Madrid and is the current director of ALAS. His research focuses on activism, socioecological transitions, and Latin American thought. He’s engaged in activist research and popular education. Maristella Svampa is a researcher, sociologist, activist, and writer, she is a researcher at the National Centre for Scientific and Technical Research (Conicet) and Professor at the Universidad Nacional de la Plata. She coordinates the Group of Critical and Interdisciplinary Studies on the Energy Problem (GECIPE) and is a member of the Group of Alternative Development.“Energy transition and the new shape of green colonialism: The emergence of the decarbonisation consensus” in Dependency Theories in Latin America: An Intellectual Reconstruction (1st ed.) p.242-246). Routledge.)
transnational corporations, institutions, and governments, place decarbonise at the centre of their economic and political agendas. ‘NetZero’ discourse openly denialist years ago now offer ‘climate solutions’ . goals of hegemonic decarbonisation are not deconcentration of energy , the protection of Nature, or climate justice; they have financial incentives, reducing energy dependence expanding market niches improving companies. dominant actors embrace this because they see it as a new opportunity for geopolitical repositioning and ‘accumulation by defossilization ’ not changing production, consumption, and waste generation Under ‘sustainability environmental dispossession of the Global South affect millions of human and nonhuman beings, c ompromising biodiversity destroying strategic ecosystems. the repository of supposedly inexhaustible resources extracted for the Global North the destination for waste and pollution generated by this new ‘industrial revolution’ decarbonisation consensus mobilises the discourse of technological potential explicitly advocates ‘green business’ ‘ climate finance’ ‘ Nature-based solutions’ climate-smart mining’ ), ‘carbon markets’ and investment transition based on mercantile logic characterised by ecological imperialism and green colonialism mobilises a neo-colonial ecological imaginary. ‘empty space’ used by governments and corporations. generated ecocide and indigenous ethnocide to justify territorial expansionism for investment in ‘green’ energy. rural areas seen as ‘empty spaces’ for windmills or hydrogen plants. corporate transitions reproduce colonial relations, decarbonisation is generating contradictions Biden, approved expansion of oil in the Arctic, the E U to return to coal post-fossil logic promoted by decarbonisation leads to a corporate, technocratic, neo-colonial, unsustainable transition. to meet demand for clean energy technologies. more than three billion tons of minerals and metals needed for wind, solar, and geothermal energy, for storage, to achieve a future temperature rise of less than 2°C decarbonisation limit the fight against climate change to quantifying carbon, only on CO2 provides a currency for international exchange creates illusion that something is being done This masks the underlying problem natural and ecological limits ignored, there is no lithium or critical raw minerals that will suffice if consumption patterns are not changed. |
035662022fd38c51b9eaa113bc35fbcb68549321e82acde08c1011a5b8b35204 | CCU valorizes CO2 | 2. LANGUAGE---Framing policies around “decarbonization” creates a negative connotation for CO2---the counterplan valorized carbon.
Gebelli ’23 [Marta and William Melander; May 26; Thesis for Master of Science in Engineering; Lund University, “CCU in Scandinavia: an uncertainty analysis regarding the future state of captured carbon in the region,” https://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=9124679&fileOId=9124703]
Mertens highlights terms that care must be taken the difference between decarbonization and defossilization decarbonization gives a bad connotation to CO2 CCU aims to valorize CO2 carbon remains crucial what will allow to achieve the climate ambitions, is to use carbon circularly so defossilization would be more appropriate the CCU should use CO2 capture Fossil-fuel based sources are not relevant |
023dafbd98a9fa5c0816f3d684e394758cad450f829d852f23ec66443129d3c0 | institutions become suspect | If they win radical negation of prohibitions is both possible and necessary, then that means they devolve into oppressive neoliberalism—turns the case
Landa, 15—The Open University (Ishay, “Bataille: The Master, the Slave, and Consumption”, Critical Sociology 2015, Vol. 41(7-8) 1087–1102, dml) [French translation provided in brackets]
Bataille was obsessed with fighting prohibitions absolute negation tends to move in a circular fashion , and ends up negating itself this ultra-anarchism leads to an affirmation of present institutions what would be the sense in destroying them if other institutions would be just as bad such norms and taboos become indispensable for without them all the exuberance of the act of rebellion fizzles out . An obsolete taboo is like a damp squib Sovereignty recommends itself as an act of total freedom , completely autonomous. It is supposed to provide a trance which obliterates society Such aloofness appears illusory , once its obligation to shock the system ] is computed. Sovereignty appears to owe its existence to that very mass society which it aims to negate the sovereign is seen to react rather than act within a Nietzschean framework few travesties are as bad as ressentiment to the extent that transgression can help to combat institutions, it is by no means clear that its impact would be progressive, rather than conservative or reactionary . The purely formalistic nature of ‘negation’ can cut both ways , in the cause of social repression and dispossession a society without prohibitions is neither conceivable nor desirable . The point is rather to abolish bad institutions , change and reform ambivalent ones , and create new practices and institutions Was not the demand to be admitted into existing institutions a fundamental progressive social demand , which was obtained only after prolonged and bitter historical struggles with Bataille institutions themselves become suspect Such theories can prove surprisingly serviceable to capitalism : if the fight is against ‘institutions’, isn’t there something to be said for neo-liberalism following an attack which was Bataillean the welfare state is in a sorry condition , whereas corporations are stronger than ever Bataille’s contradictory politics overtly embraces radicalism but remains paradoxically affirmative of the present political constellation |
02a8b2f8b72a2ad08cccb0fcdc8fd78207ffe218ef53bc37df04a1eec434f499 | U.S. lagged China climate | The IRA kickstarted U.S. climate leadership, but further policy is critical to cement geopolitical influence.
Dawes 24
IRA opens new opportunities for leadership Clean energy key for competition Countries lead by example ability to drive negotiations prevalent in climate leadership embrace of green policy opens new leadership that enable the U S to play a key role in decarbonization U S lagged China in climate |
007229287a31a2c06623ff0a1275778c801f6492b40263a8b61d2d0ccbc96d25 | Courts adopt policy absent legislative action | Courts may adopt public policy in the absence of legislative action
Keller 18 – Justice of the Kentucky Supreme Court, former Judge on the Kentucky Court of Appeals. Chairwoman Emeritus of the Kentucky Personnel Board. J.D. from Northern Kentucky University’s Chase College of Law.
when organs of public policy are silent courts may adopt policy |
0312bd76fe00053c57ef136a9c2e9f57fb5e6b677f92c212d544d8778430b374 | Carbon pricing incentivizes biomass | Carbon pricing incentivizes biomass---worsens emissions and lowers global carbon stocks
SELC 22. Southern Environmental Law Center, Mar 28 2022. Southern Environmental Law Center “New study confirms harmful impacts of biomass industry” https://www.southernenvironment.org/news/new-study-confirms-harmful-impacts-of-biomass/ Accessed8.11.2024///mosuQ
biomass falsely tout clean energy, but emit more carbon than coal, causes damage to forests Cutting forests at scale degrade water quality destroy wildlife habitats logging releases heat-trapping gas worsening the climate crisis reduc carbon stocks in forests bad for climate from start to finish government incentives wrongly categorized biomass as ‘clean energy’ biomass industry not viable if it weren’t for incentives. It is crucial that U.S. not create incentives for this dangerous industry. |
01916c9458e517414b07c04a1b83fe8a2402b86933e8506c8c6e19e8babe57bb | Bowdey 2025 | Johnson is retaining unity with The Freedom Caucus now. It’s reversible.
Bowdey ’25 - Suzanne Bowdey serves as editorial director and senior writer for The Washington Stand – “Johnson Races to Ready for Trump: ‘This Is an Around-the-Clock Operation Right Now’” – The Washington Stand - January 15, 2025 - https://washingtonstand.com/commentary/johnson-races-to-ready-for-trump-this-is-an-aroundtheclock-operation-right-now
the speaker understands he’ll need every Republican on the same page to get Trump’s agenda something that’s a monumental task. the House Freedom Caucus to Mar-a-Lago to hash out some differences that threatened to torpedo Johnson “Unity was a huge part of the meeting,” that kind of team-building and] camaraderie is really important Despite the bitter debates the fiscal hawks have had with leadership It was enjoyable |
03f9655cd3a5d797dc68f74189ae9aa8e92c77d04a5a5b52629ae8334448d0de | Courts and existential threats | That fends off a list of existential threats.
Keilitz ’19 [Ingo, Katharine Jennings, Susan Ehrlich, Caroline Broun, Kathryn Floyd, and Michael Buenger; Winter 2019; PhD, Former Vice President of the National Center for State Courts, Principal of Court Metrics, and visiting Scholar of the Public Policy Program at the College of William & Mary, Research Associate of W&M’s Global Research Institute; Court Manager, “Courts Have a Significant Role to Play in the Whole-of- Government Approach (WGA) to Our Safety and Security,” vol. 34]
Courts must get ready for a riskier world We face disasters , pandemics , terror bio and cyber threats warrant attention to mitigate risks a system’s records vanish undercutting finality and certainty cohesion frays. actors take advantage of ensuing political chaos threats require a broad approach across all branches executive , legislative “Will we survive we have tech to destroy every creature on earth warming famine , nuc war , a w s , and decimation of species |
0417531f703dad0b732bd890cac9ec9458fbefe72b2559f429f07a2d8def49ec | Johnson and Mosri 16 | 2. REPETITION COMPULSION.
Johnson and Mosri, 16 [Brian, Psychiatry @ SUNY; and Daniela Flores, Psychology, Psychoanalytic Psychotherapy, and Neuropsychoanalysis @ Universidad Intercontinental (Mexico City): “The Neuropsychoanalytic Approach: Using Neuroscience as the Basic Science of Psychoanalysis,” Hypothesis and Theory 7 (October 2016). http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2016.01459]//AD
Object representations are cortical. They stabilize and facilitate experiences Knowing a person acts the same makes contact less effortful working memory underlies object representations and planning ahead inform subsequent encounters so the interaction occurs with optimal relatedness |
03b6b00f27aca136ae50613bd5a3a5c494bd15b234ffede39eae4a35746681c9 | Chevron deference | Absent Chevron, bold Fed actions get challenged in court. The signal that sends shocks markets.
Paul H. Kupiec & Alex J. Pollock 24, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania; Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute, “Without Chevron, the Fed has crucial questions to address,” The Hill, 07-28-2024, accessed 09-29-2024, https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4794538-chevron-doctrine-federal-reserve, DG
agencies’ interp s will no longer be given deference Considering the Fed’s history of expanding powers demise of Chevron gives the Fed’s legal eagles lots to ponder policy questions include authority to take on balance sheet risk without approval from Congress a risk that has generated more than a trillion dollars of unrealized Fed losses international agreements and credit regulations demise of Chevron creates new uncertainty regarding Fed powers not clearly enumerated economy will face uncertain outcomes of potential judicial challenges to Fed powers |
03377d8b60be9d9f93a1c828d74ebd80c6b888539c2106a99bda00b324c83344 | Regulation unnecessary tanks and trucks solve | A change in regulation’s unnecessary---tanks and trucks solve.
Royal Chemical 21. Chemical contract manufacturer. “Using Bulk Trucks for Chemical Transport.” 10/8/21. https://www.royalchemical.com/blog/using-bulk-trucks-for-chemical-transport.
trucks or tankers carry chemical products around the country Liquid bulk tanks and can hold 7,500 gallons Dry bulk tankers Dry vans All allow for secure storage and shipment in large quantities |
03b6b00f27aca136ae50613bd5a3a5c494bd15b234ffede39eae4a35746681c9 | Kupiec & Pollock 24 | Absent Chevron, bold Fed actions get challenged in court. The signal that sends shocks markets.
Paul H. Kupiec & Alex J. Pollock 24, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania; Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute, “Without Chevron, the Fed has crucial questions to address,” The Hill, 07-28-2024, accessed 09-29-2024, https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4794538-chevron-doctrine-federal-reserve, DG
agencies’ interp s will no longer be given deference Considering the Fed’s history of expanding powers demise of Chevron gives the Fed’s legal eagles lots to ponder policy questions include authority to take on balance sheet risk without approval from Congress a risk that has generated more than a trillion dollars of unrealized Fed losses international agreements and credit regulations demise of Chevron creates new uncertainty regarding Fed powers not clearly enumerated economy will face uncertain outcomes of potential judicial challenges to Fed powers |
0329b1d8a36cd73e51479f984f7db0d6afd476ae4fe1ce7ac14814a33ed8a6d4 | SEC climate disclosure rule fails | The SEC climate disclosure rule failed to resolve the root cause of ESG failures.
Vlahos 24 “SEC's Proposed ESG Disclosure Rule: Why It Fails to Remedy the Underlying Challenges Facing ESG Investing Practices” Nikki Vlahos is *JD. expected May 2024, The George Washington University Law School; B.A. in Political Science and Psychology. 2024 https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/busfnclr7&div=5&id=&page=
SEC's Rule fails to deal with the underlying issues does not address absence of an enforceable definition overlooks true ambiguity lies in the way ranking agencies define materiality and provide rankings of ESGs render Rule ineffective also create possible legal challenges |
03e4e72b66c256d010071a10f9ce9f3f0e16c9f7612e01094a9a0be394135f0b | Trump invades Mexico existential | Trump invades Mexico---that’s existential
De Loera-Brust 23 – former special assistant to the U.S. secretary of state
Bomb Mexico proposals are the most harmful ideas ever entertained the Mexico relationship involves daily coop on water c t trade Trump fantasized about military force on Mexican soil starting a war in Mexico is not impossible The proposal should be taken as the real threat to security that it is. Mexico strongly opposes it coop already hangs by a thread There is no doubt any plausible leader would refuse permission we could end up fighting the Mexican gov consequences are hard to overemphasize the Mexican war was the deadliest foreign conflict in U.S. history Guerrilla activity plague U.S. forces weak nations can inflict real damage Even if the gov stayed out we’d be left with counterinsurgency a remake of Iraq proximity means any conflict would instantly create impacts at home cartels would fight back inflict violence on American streets migration would fuel xenophobic massacres wars are a Pandora’s box Mexico is the U S most important relationship Millions depend on trade As we challenge pandemics and great-power competition the U S desperately needs Mexico ability to near shore critical industries and climate require coop |
022269bf9640e6b6b80cbc30b79b05a3565b34f23117702c7a00b3946f0963db | Watt psychoanalytic drive | Psychoanalytic drive theory is wrong---studies of localized human brain lesions and animal self-stimulus prove
Watt 12, senior clinical Neuropsychologist at the Boston University School of Medicine, Harvard Medical School (Douglas, “Theoretical challenges in the conceptualization of motivation in neuroscience: Implications for the bridging of neuroscience and psychoanalysis”, pg 85-108)
work on motivation received major impetus from localized electrical brain stimulation, which found animals selfstimulate ventral tegmental area this generates a positive state, described as hopefulness consummatory pleasure may not require ventral tegmental dopamine systems while anticipatory excitement clearly does there is no simple motivational ‘ centre ’ in the brain) as it appears after injury to structures psychoanalysis has been hampered by its allegiance to outdated drive theory Freud had no access neuroscience. A reworking of psychoanalysis, away from drive theory (which does not conceptualize social connection needs would bring psychoanalysis into register with neuroscience drive-discharge’ models cannot do justice to complexity where prototype emotions operate, as behavioural involve more complex aims attachment theory has supplanted drive theory, psychoanalysis needs to incorporate multiple prototype /affective systems. to with empirical work on neural substrates there were two large clusters of emotional systems, not ‘Eros’ and ‘Thanatos’, it was the protection of the organism versus systems that tied organisms together for a shared purpose Eros but not Thanatos |
026d7f041db251226378b8d9e23376b3997170917f9bf923690228f0152c30ef | carbon tax limits funds | Carbon taxing the mining process limits funds for terror by denying evasion and lowering income.
Baer et. al 23, (Katherine Baer – Vice President of River Programs & Program Officer of Z. Smith Reynolds Foundation, Ruud De Mooij - Deputy Director in the International Monetary Fund's Fiscal Affairs Department, Shafik Hebous - deputy division chief in the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, Michael Keen - Head of the Tax Policy Division IMF, 8-18-2023, Taxing cryptocurrencies, OUP Academic, https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article/39/3/478/7245712)//CHale
compelling case for corrective taxation is Proof-of-work Voluntariness unlikely to provide solution externalities best addressed within carbon tax automatically internalize the costs of the energy-heavy mechanisms meaningful measure limit income for energy costs incurred in mining paramount concern has been facilitating criminal activities use is extensive negative cross-country correlation between Bitcoin and corruption money laundering, trade in drugs and financing of terrorism Tax evasion commonly included |
0145a301ad8332c614f97ed80f368100ec2cacc841ff0a5de2fcd766b5f31904 | emerging economies collapse | Interest rate hikes ripple across the globe, collapsing developing economies.
Li 24, Jiangsu Ocean University, China. (Xinru, “The Effect of the Fed Interest Rate Hikes on the Financial Crisis Evidence from Emerging Market Economices,’ Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, https://doi.org/10.9734/ajeba/2024/v24i61355) **figures omitted.
FED RATE HIKES CAUSE CRISES IN EMERGING COUNTRIES tightening accompanied by turbulence especially for emerging economies the impact far-reaching fully demonstrated international transmission With hikes crises erupted globally the Fed make waves because the dollar the world's currency firmly in control of pricing global currencies the Fed's policy serves the national rather than international market controlling inflation in the country hikes change global capital flows leading to outflows currency depreciation puts pressure on growth the rate hike increase the debt burden pressure increase the hike trigger volatility in global markets requires emerging countries to cope with shocks local currency depreciated sharply suffered a credit crisis people sell triggering Inflation large increase in cost of imports the debt burden increases consumption shrinks , and a crisis break out Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Thailand, Turkey are not strong difficult to withstand the risks immediate outbreak of the debt crisis |
032a4aa9b3493c7ed4c39ef9bd940bd43276ecbb80ec74f4fb1139ab8f82f41f | Debate critical thinking persuasion | Debating provides a center to preseason preparation of links to a variety of competitive arguments—that allows clash which generates critical thinking, persuasion, and problem solving.
Lundberg 10 — Christian O. Lundberg, Associate Professor of Rhetoric in the Department of Communication Studies at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, holds a Ph.D. in Communication Studies from Northwestern University, 2010 (“The Allred Initiative and Debate Across the Curriculum: Reinventing the Tradition of Debate at North Carolina,” Navigating Opportunity: Policy Debate in the 21st Century, Edited by Allan D. Louden, Published by the International Debate Education Association, ISBN 9781617700293, p. 304-305)
debate is a critical tool for civic deliberation debate inculcates skills for creative and open-minded discussion of disputes debate invites interlocutors to think together creatively in the context of successive strategic iterations , moments of evaluation , and reiterations of arguments in the context of a structured public discussion Traditional teaching insulate students from open questions Debates invite students to consider a range of alternative views on a subject debate creates a broader appreciation for multiple perspectives on an issue This conclusion is especially powerful when one considers debate as a whole process of inventing , discussing , employing , and reformulating arguments In the process of researching , strategizing , debating , reframing stances , and switching sides on a question , students are provided with a framework for thinking about a problem and solutions from a number of angles the cumulative effects of preparing for , performing , and evaluating a debate provide the widest possible exposure to varied positions a student might take |
0003e5e43228a62eaaea765ab4cc7f441ee05fa4059951000316b226f779743c | military cuts arms racing | Cuts to military readiness leads to nuclear war, nuclear terror, and arms racing.
Brands ’18 [Hal; January 16; Professor of Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; American Grand Strategy in the Age of Trump, “Does America Have Enough Hard Power?” Ch. 6]
America committed to primacy in every document the U S maintained peerless power-projection in Europe Asia , the East dominance constituted the backbone of strategy to perpetuat the unipolar order . They suppress rogue states , nuclear prolif and terror Washington preserve overmatch versus challenges to the system norms reflect power great powers are seeking heg developing modernization emphasizing nuclear conventional and special forces Iran develop A2/AD tech allowed actors to contest superiority spread of a sat cyber air defense and precision-strike had a leveling effect challenges multiplied The U S confronts rogue states jihadist and great-power competition |
036c6fdace430d49f505290a50f01e39f0daed312219c8d77c9e93a24bd00f43 | Trump tariff day one | 1 -- Double Bind – Either Trump ignites global trade wars on day one.
Economist 11-7, (11-7-2024, “The world faces its worst trade wars since the 1930s,” The Telegram, https://www.economist.com/international/2024/11/07/the-world-faces-its-worst-trade-wars-since-the-1930s)
THE WORLD stands on the brink of multiple trade wars unleashed by Trump reluctant clashes will follow by blocs whose prosperity depends on foreign markets trade-friendly governments feel obliged to retaliate Trump returns with a mandate to impose tax rises on trade on a historic scale threatening China with 60% tariff taxing Mexican cars 500% and flat tariff of 20%. openness to dealmaking should not distract from the magnitude Trump can raise tariffs on day one under Section 301 He could announce a fresh probe to address “new misdeeds Tariffs folded into a federal tax bill due in 2025 Trump could issue an ex o to examine all trade |
02446fde4bbdd0d8531c567963202ef1a45041d9214799a50b953396d0432feb | china renewable energy leader | BUT China can’t overtake the market - especially because China is a net-importer with nuclear as a very small part of their energy economy
Gross 25 [Samantha Gross is a Energy Security and Climate Fellow for Brookings. “How do China and America think about the energy transition?.” 1-13-25. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-do-china-and-america-think-about-the-energy-transition/#chinas-investments-have-made-it-a-leader-in-new-energy-products GMU NR]
The U S and China differ considerably in how they power their economies Resource availability is a key reason China is a net importer carry over to electricity generation an opposing trend is in play China is investing heavily in renewable generation to reduce dependence difference is that nuclear plays a small role in China’s system China has been large leader in renewable energy was the main driver in 50% increase in installations India’s so po are not abundant cultural influence pales to the West and Chinese institutions and fo po mitigated perceptions India has done a poor job lifting its population out of poverty institutions are rife with corruption and nepotism . India has not pursued types of cooperative policies required India has been a spoiler on trade nonprolif and intervention these point to major obstacles |
03549933f0025a4052a51b380bd1aa64e52257a3a2e32451e0106937eefff45f | electoral college matters | 9---It’s a 50/50
Mesa & Sager 9-23-24. Jesus Mesa & Monica Sager. Newsweek “Nate Silver Says Newest Harris-Trump Polling Left Him 'A Little Surprised'” https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-harris-trump-poll-surprised-1958048 Accessed9.25.2024///mosuQ
contested states honestly, we don't know who is going to win sentiment shared by other pollsters going to hit November 5 with no sense a "toss-up" election is won by Electoral College votes, not popular vote |
01de91194f65b50ee794f3c233909c49258695866850e9634d1aba335418ec6f | Ethics After Humanity | 2. Non-Western spirituality survived and is threaded through normative visions of ‘humanity’ in the climate crisis, allowing our interpretation to solve the debates they think necessary.
Jenkins 23, Hollingsworth Professor of Ethics and Chair of the Religious Studies Department at the University of Virginia (Willis Jenkins, 2023, “Ethics After Humanity,” Journal of Religious Ethics, Vol. 51, No. 4, pp. 611-38, University of Kansas Libraries, Wiley)
“The normative liberal humanism is predicated on abjection of blackness ,” writes Jackson Does recognizing race within forces shaping the planet require relinquishing humanity as normative concept? Acknowledging centrality of race in humanity does not betoken the end of humanity as emancipatory Becoming estranged from white Anthropos in the climate crisis might be supported by planetary humanism from resistance to white supremacy Humanity has not been only and always white supremacist versions have been forged in resistance by inventing other ways meaning of humanity was only partially made through merchandising persons rendered black Another basis was constructed by people held as cargo From this another world emerged in “ resistance , prayer , and ability to survive religion sustained ways of being against modern Anthropos From white supremacy another modernity has grown from complex ambiguity which provides an alternate human |
043fa2e8f5302c230146c02517b2d8e2d62c4b99fa1f896f6ce11b539d75aa10 | politicizing the fed | Fed independence exists but is fragile now – changing mandates politicizes the fed.
John Crawford, Professor of Law, University of California College of the Law, San Francisco., 6-22-2024, William and Mary Business Law Review. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4873544
Fed’s independence is fragile enough in core policymaking functions when fighting monetary financial instability we should limit things that could weaken Fed’s independence Fed should stay in its lane Congress should keep that narrow |
0418b4e9ea8d15e9baf06e6c15abdea6ff6b3fa4341bc1b53dea0601a8a4c185 | court outcome favors | 6---AFF doesn’t spill over to broader precedent
Sarah Chayes 2024, prizewinning journalist and internationally recognized expert on corruption in government networks throughout the world, “It’s Official: The Supreme Court Ignores Its Own Precedent”, July 19, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/07/supreme-court-immunity-corruption/679107/, accessed 9/13/24, HMc
Nothing suggests the majority has respect for its own prior work Roberts has contradicted precedent he himself authored take note of whom the outcome favors. Dobbs similarly disdained precedent justices are not licensed to say that the law is whatever they want it to be. gripped by an ideological bent for protecting executives’ Roberts dismantled jurisprudence Trump needed no pretext Roberts legacy may include encouraging him they’re willing to torture logic |
0347ae98a534b3b7d1d899f828e1f8172ed2755ddd679b7c01cfa4cd8be0b639 | China gray zone warfare | Capabilities.
Tom O'Connor, award-winning senior writer of foreign policy at Newsweek, and Naveed Jamali, Editor @ Newsweek, ’21, "As China gray zone warfare escalates, U.S. may stand to lose first shooting battle," Newsweek, https://www.newsweek.com/china-gray-zone-wars-us-lose-first-battle-1573318
The U S and China are conducting carefully calculated tests one wrong move could lead to out conflict the U.S. could lose Goldstein professor at the Naval War College told scenarios for confrontation are extremely challenging the situation is dark China has adequate forces air , , electronic spec ops , naval , and nuclear to prevail he attributed China's upper hand to favorable geography greater will and willingness to strike first China has already exceeded the U S in shipbuilding ballistic missiles, and air defense these categories would prove decisive in a hypothetical fight over the S C S James E. Fanell director of Intelligence told the PLA Rocket Force put U.S. carriers at risk with fielding DF-21 and 26 anti-carrier missiles China's use of maritime hybrid war near disputed islands in the S C S push the boundaries of sea control The 'grey zone' strategy to swarm waters overwhelm Navy warship sensors and defense perimeters |
042e60d44128606463356bfed543a4c1056126e3215ac818ca275db43d82077c | Literature base energy transition | 3 - LITERATURE BASE. Subsidization is the only “substantive debate” about energy transition.
Mills 24, Mark P. Mills, contributing editor of City Journal, executive director of the National Center on Energy Analytics, a strategic partner in the energy fund Montrose Lane, and author of The Cloud Revolution: How the Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020s, City Journal, 7-16-2024 ["A Bet Against the “Energy Transition”, available on: https://www.city-journal.org/article/a-bet-against-the-energy-transition, accessed: 10-23-2024]rrf
energy transition is already underway This is firmly embedded in policies, and rhetoric The only substantive debate about the energy transition concerns how fast it’s happening and what should be subsidized |
025da83c5cd13b3b81ed8cffe93a36eaa7ceb84de992b08add1ac4f7972a2db9 | Stan Olijslagers 2021 | The plan’s optimal price acceleration key to tipping points – averts subsidy green paradox
Stan Olijslagers 2021 Tinbergen Institute is the graduate school and research institute in economics of Erasmus University Rotterdam, the University of Amsterdam and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Also (Rick van der Ploeg Department of Economics, University of Oxford & Sweder van Wijnbergen Centre for Economic Policy, Research, London) “On current and future carbon prices in a risky world” TI 2021-045/VI Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper
https://papers.tinbergen.nl/21045.pdf
in every assessment of uncertainty such as tipping Ice Sheet or Gulf Stream the optimal response is a rising path of carbon prices If climate sensitivity has increased or carbon sinks have weakened the optimal response is a rising path of carbon prices and a rising but higher path after uncertainty about future prices in presence of irreversible capital accumulation is an incentive to postpone investment by conferring an option value to waiting strategies convex damages, tipping points and temperature caps all require carbon prices grow faster than the economy decision makers should start with a significant carbon price and commit to a steadily rising path Only by credibly committing to such a path are corporations going to make long run irreversible investments to transition carbon-free Uncertainty about future prices will cause corporations to hold back investments politicians tend to postpone carbon pricing and prefer subsidies This can lead to adverse Green Paradox effects, where the anticipation of a stepping up climate policy induces fossil fuel reserves to extract more quickly and accelerate emissions Credible commitment to steadily rising prices is thus paramount |
012bec7a67c1955b48f57b407df55a8c999b19098fec9c7f5843e6c3c80b56d6 | BCA transparent criteria | 7---DIFFERENTIATED BCAS. A differentiated BCA solves offsets and any regressive tax impacts on other countries
Ozai ’22 (Ivan, Fire Lord, also tax law professor based in Canada. His scholarly work focuses on the intersection of tax law with legal theory and political philosophy, “Designing an Equitable Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanism”, Osgoode Hall Law School of York University, 2022, https://digitalcommons.osgoode.yorku.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3874&context=scholarly_works, [SG])
alternative design options a differential BCA applies according levels of development a uniform BCA applies to all countries A differential BCA reduce power asymmetries and enhance bargaining efficiency constraining opportunism in the negotiation of tariff concessions to avoid favouritism or discrimination, a differential BCA based on transparent and justified criteria A uniform BCA would penalize developing countries |
025ceed85f9a011b83da7bc4f963a75f20df5fc7943f0d525e19c47ba3c5b25b | aviation carbon tax grand bargain | 5_ Turn: Aviation Carbon tax is a grand bargain that spurs bipartisan compromise
Rooney 23 — Laurence Francis Rooney III is an American politician and diplomat who was a U.S. representative for Florida's 19th congressional district from 2017 to 2021. A Republican, he served as the U.S. ambassador to the Holy See from 2005 until 2008. Francis Rooney. “The Unexpected Climate Policy That Could Tackle Both National Debt and China.” Politico, 10/26/2023, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/26/climate-polity-china-us-00123510 //WMK
Democrats want to address climate Republicans want to tackle debt soaring national debt, and China could create a new alignment of interests that make politics click as lawmakers grapple with dire fiscal outlook carbon pricing could be a bipartisan “grand bargain” deal , where conservatives claim significant reductions in deficit and liberals tout a major climate policy achievement |
01c765a99f10f6024b72c924692c18bd4183fae4e2104295084266dbe6a55a91 | Bagrie 18 confidence useless | Business confidence is a useless indicator of economic prosperity.
Cameron Bagrie 18. Managing Director and Chief Economist at Bagrie Economics. Independent and straight-talking economics. Formerly Chief Economist, ANZ, New Zealand. "Business confidence is a hopeless indicator. But that doesn't mean the economy isn't in trouble," Spinoff, https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/09-08-2018/business-confidence-is-bullshit-but-that-doesnt-mean-the-economy-isnt-in-trouble/
Business confidence fallen off a cliff Economist says it’s meaningless can largely ignore business confidence hopeless as an economic indicator correlation with economic growth is poor Changes in direction can provide information but not levels Businesses tend to be more upbeat regarding confidence under blue flag as opposed to red one confidence averaged minus 18 economy grew by more than 3.5% per year confidence was negative, but growth was positive |
0386bb6aa6833cd29aaf2df168775e55950dfcb7009f5594d79853d47b1b7d69 | David Spratt | It causes extinction---tipping points are certain and soon.
Spratt ’24 [David; December 2; Research Director, Breakthrough National Center for Climate Restoration, Founder, Climate Action Center, BS, Economics, Australian National University; Breakthrough Center; “Collision Course: 3-degrees of Warming and Humanity’s Future,” https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/_files/ugd/148cb0_085aaeb2f1a1481789014b8e895ad23b.pdf]
the climate system are reaching tipping points centuries faster than projected models downplay non-linear processes the past is no longer a guide to the future. tail risks are expected and threaten society abrupt thawing of permafrost ; loss of all coral s ; collapse of A M O C can trigger loss of crops instability and collapse the Doomsday Glacier is near collapse Summer sea- ice has been lost permafrost source of g h g s boreal forests have raised emissions The Amazon has become a net source And the monsoon is heading to cause dieback all reefs extinct , land sinks collapsed absorbed no carbon collapse of AMOC 95% of occurring could happen within decades would flip the seasons half the world could dry out majority of scientists expect warming more than 3 and catastrophic impacts dystopian famines heatwaves and storms locked in unless emissions decline Only rapid near-term reductions are effective in reducing climate risks weather can result in failures in critical systems , water food energy trade , and security The IPCC leave out many tipping points feedbacks drive the Earth to no return Hothouse humans lack capacity to stop warming an existential threat could exist at 1.5° |
0420877c537877a97f7cd2179963ef44fdfcd3dc321431dc4f97e9ea70d140a4 | blockchain energy transactions | More microgrids means more blockchain integration – cryptofinance is thrilled with the concept.
Tattersall 17, *partners, **manager, all at Deloitte, global consulting and advising firm, really bad guys, love AI and crypto. (*Chris, and Jan Seffinga, and **Andreas Bachmann, “Blockchain and the Energy sector – #1: Will microgrids transform the market?” Deloitte Switzerland, November 14th, 2017, https://www2.deloitte.com/ch/en/pages/energy-and-resources/articles/will-microgrids-transform-the-marke.html) rose
The “microgrid” refers to a localised grid that can operate autonomously Consumers with energy production capabilities can sell surplus energy back to peers in the microgrid we observe the development of virtual microgrids using peer-to-peer energy trading. Blockchain provid DLT to members of a microgrid. It offers a lower-cost platform for making energy transactions across a decentralised energy system we expect a continued increase in the number of virtual microgrids a key factor are ‘smart contracts’ When pre-defined requirements are fulfilled a contract is created and executed determined price. Within the microgrid tracking of energy consumption and generation is executed by smart contracts and recorded on the Blockchain |
018f5fee13e5c052bc9ac6dbe1fdba8c8ad74f456c3d52042645f646bbc2cb73 | Thoreson 14 | 4. Queerness is not inevitably “a structural antagonism.” Anti-queer animus is shaped by local and contextual histories, politics, and ideologies---theorizing the law’s pivotal role in regulating and institutionalizing queerness and orientations toward it is necessary to understanding how anti-queer violence is uniquely created and perpetuated in different contexts.
Thoreson 14, specialist in the LGBT rights program at Human Rights Watch, author of Transnational LGBT Activism: Working for Sexual Rights Worldwide, holds a law degree from Yale Law School, a Doctorate in Anthropology from the University of Oxford, where he studied as a Rhodes Scholar, and a bachelor’s degree in government and studies of women, gender, and sexuality from Harvard University. (Ryan, 2014, “Troubling the waters of a ‘wave of homophobia’: Political economies of anti-queer animus in sub-Saharan Africa,” Sexualities, vol. 17, no. 1/2, p. 26-27, DOI: 10.1177/1363460713511098)
anti-queer animus are inflected by the sociopolitical systems from which they arise Given the nation-state’s roles in producing antipathy toward homosexuality, a political economy approach is especially helpful the nation-state retains the exclusive ability to regulate sexuality through legislation, family law, and state programs agents of the nation-state sanction stances and institutionalize these in state policies. episodic animus is difficult to analyze without a understanding of the role hostile attitudes and interactions play in larger sociocultural systems Attitudes fluctuate, and thick description is necessary to provide insights into inflections of animus, how attitudes are actualized when prejudices may be set aside political economies are shaped by regional and global trends |
02bfb97963b9c09cdd36b5aba7a344dafc28e1eef545d5f7e66cb889733317c2 | CO2 transition bump | 2---Co2 Bump and Global Development.
Max Ajl 21, associated researcher with the Tunisian Observatory for Food Sovereignty and the Environment and a postdoctoral fellow with the Rural Sociology Group at Wageningen University, 2021, “A People’s Green New Deal,” Pluto Press
A huge problem the CO2 “bump” in transition: building renewable infrastructure require energy that cannot come from renewables The more clean energy the larger the bump the goal should be reducing energy use in the core peripheral states receive renewable grants via climate debt or build out polluting infrastructure |
018678775dd28c5742d15c0a515adc67f1232522b8e9e0ec5f7567f86e5dca9c | Climate catastrophe Davidson | B. Elevating climate change to an existential threat reflects consensus AND motivates change, not apathy.
Davidson 23, *Ph.D. from the Department of Sociology at the university of Cambridge **Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge. (*Joe P.L. **Luke Kemp, 12-12-2023, “Climate catastrophe: The value of envisioning the worst-case scenarios of climate change,” WIREs Climate Change, DOI: 10.1002/wcc.871)
Scientists called for exploration of extinction over 11,000 signed statement warning of catastrophic threat posed by climate Critics claim discussion of extreme risks is flawed and counterproductive None of these concerns is convincing There is no reason considering extreme risks slow decarbonisation a lack of risk assessments slow action and create faulty policies Nor is there strong ev that considering risks lead to apathy recent meta-analysis concludes fear-based messaging is effective at changing attitudes , and behaviors and there were no observed situations counterproductive This echoes wider lit erature on fear idea that fear breed fatalism needs greater nuance |
03f99b7d4a9bdcdeb0f51fb23dc0b84e3a83d2f43f068d06c8bba09f2e82a8f0 | vagueness creates circumvention opportunities | That’s offense---vagueness creates opportunities for circumvention and magnify regulatory uncertainty, even with durable fiat.
Becky L. Jacobs & Brad Finney 19, Waller Lansden Distinguished Professor of Law at the University of Tennessee College of Law, J.D. from the University of Georgia School of Law; Associate at Norton Rose Fulbright, J.D. from the University of Tennessee College of Law, “Defining Sustainable Business—Beyond Greenwashing,” Virginia Environmental Law Journal, Vol. 37, No. 2, 2019, https://www.jstor.org/stable/26742666, DG
sustainability differences exacerbate the potential definitional diversity has to create confusion for consumers, investors, and the public definitions do not require broad and in-depth actions confusion provides companies an opportunity to promote sustainable practices while not always meeting expectations on a regular basis even if a company is accurate in one indicator the public may perceive practices to be more extensive and responsible than those actually maintained due to variability of definitions |
01a37669d1b4ef4d1bfe18d8462574e81541a4a09e11dd40abeb284e10be97a7 | acidification weakens ocean life | Ocean acidification
Jodie Phillips 2024, “Ocean Acidification and the Food Web: The Impact on Fisheries and Aquaculture”, Sustainable Living Environmental Blog, January 24, accessed 6/25/24, https://www.environmentalconsortium.org/ocean-acidification-and-the-food-web-the-impact-on-fisheries-and-aquaculture/, HMc
acidification weaken ocean life. across the food web For plankton acidified water can slow growth Shellfish experience difficulty forming shells Fish encounter challenges with growth, predators suffer, as disruptions impact prey Aquaculture faces its own challenges as acidified waters hinder farmed fish. |
00b474eac4634765426d433fa916850605c681c51595e2e53654d690106645f4 | economic impact of climate change | No economic collapse from warming—damage to the economy would be trivial in the worst-case scenario.
Koonin 21 – Professor of Information, Operations and Management at the NYU Stern School of Business.
Steven Koonin, “Unsettled: What is the Economic Impact of Climate Change?”, ProMarket, 8/11/12, https://www.promarket.org/2021/08/11/unsettled-climate-change-economy-steve-koonin/
twenty published estimates show projected temp rise would impact the economy by 3 percent or less 3 percent in 2100 translates to a decrease in growth rate by 0.04 percent per year the UN report says the economic impact is negligible For most sectors climate will be small relative to population age income tech regulation The consensus on minimal overall economic impact is well known to experts very large warming would diminish the US by 4 percent the US will be four times larger in 2090 warming would delay growth by only two years the notion of climate economic disaster remains alive in the media even the official assessment indicate significant climate change would have negligible net economic impact on the US |
0323ebfb2665bba4dbbc22501c310b730f7a4247bbb0a85ffb46f10fc8df5a61 | AI causes the end of mankind | Unregulated AI will eventually cause extinction through a litany of unpredictable outcomes
Thomas Frey, 12-16-2021, "What Happens When We Lose Control of AI?," Futurist Speaker and executive director and founder, past engineer with IBM, https://futuristspeaker.com/artificial-intelligence/what-happens-when-we-lose-control-of-ai/ smarx, AZG)
AI comes with inherent risks we haven’t fathomed yet AI can make mistakes AI developed a troubling tendency of issuing faulty and dangerous clinical guidance Cyber AI terrorists undoubtedly leverage this trick AI might eradicate anyone with cancerous cells in their body everyone has cancer cells in their body, this would instantly turn into mass extinction AI could cause the end of mankind it will be just a matter of time |
01602b859812f8947997bd0aa8eb484f9bf02cc596e5f6b9a6439193eb56b05f | restraint rely on international collaboration | 7. Failure to provide a clear alternative to hegemony and liberal foreign policy ensures their method remains insular.
Brenes 22 (Michael Brenes teaches history at Yale University. His new book is For Might and Right: Cold War Defense Spending and the Remaking of American Democracy. 12-20-2022, "American Hegemony Is Morally Bankrupt. We Need a Just Alternative.," Jacobin, https://jacobin.com/2022/12/leftist-foreign-policy-restraint-strategy-ukraine-war, JKS)
Restraint is not the end in and of itself must look to build affirmative vision relies upon international collaboration to reprioritize security threats climate change migration refugee policy poverty global health deter imperial adventures demilitarize landscape of fo po restraint will not thrive simply as critique Restraint cannot be reactive and defensive if ever there was a time when the sheer force of events should suffice to undermine a theory, it is now For the first time since the 1980s, everyone is talking about capitalism—not alterity hybridity , or the fragment, but the ubiquitous, grinding, crushing force of capital It is hard to imagine a more dramatic confirmation of the two universalisms than demands for bread, rights, jobs, and democracy secular, universalistic, and materialist demands masses of young revolutionaries called for liberty the U S and Europe experienced mass mobilizations the past five years created recognition of postcolonial theory’s shortcomings There are journals wholly committed to it, chairs in humanities departments sections in disciplinary societies book series at publishing houses , not only have lavish material resources been plowed into the field, but hundreds of scholars have built their reputations on it legions of intellectuals who have staked their reputations on this theoretical framework response to the political developments to bend and twist the theory so that it might appear capable of accommodating developments that rather directly undermine its basic propositions; and violently attack any concerted critique when scientific theories meet with even outright disconfirmation They are able to survive for long periods because of the resources that can be deployed to defend them postcolonial theory is much the same , the absence of experimental conditions makes the likelihood of rapid displacement even more remote. The times in which we live this will not happen on its own All the more reason to begin now. |
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