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042fb4b0bf9c446c86ab5ca47194d4da6a65b064c042411d4f1117796a1c730f | climate change state cap and trade | That’s sufficient to solve the climate, maintain regulatory efficiency, and avoid the debt ceiling DA.
Stegman 15 (John Stegman, J.D. Santa Clara University School of Law, 2015, “Cooperative State Cap And Trade To Mitigate Climate Change,” Santa Clara Law Review Vo. 55, Rev. 215, https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/lawreview/vol55/iss1/6/ [Accessed 8-10-24])//g6
national cap and trade is unnecessary it could preempt the state furthering the potential for legal battles Instead , states should form a broad, multilateral cap and trade program , linking markets to provide stability and prevent leakage retaining flexibility Nine states participate in the RGGI developed a linked market to achieve a ten percent reduction apportions the base cap to each state , allowing the state to issue allowances equivalent to its portion of the cap California's recent linkage with Quebec demonstrates cap and trade was designed to link with others Should the Western Initiative link with Quebec and RGGI markets, a framework would be created for a broad program lead by states International pacts can be utilized securing foreign commitment While non-binding pact s commit to multilateral cooperation |
015945a7243ee8d386939b52e041ad1c6c1d83af4f9bb3cb35260b630f1888ed | indigenous movements pressured states | Indigenous political engagement is extremely successful because it co-opts the language of the state to strategically advance native interests while continuing to engage in movements outside the state.
Noisecat 17, 11th Hour Fellow at New America as well as a Fellow of the Type Media Center. Enrolled member of the Canim Lake Band Tsq'escen in British Columbia and a graduate of Columbia University and the University of Oxford (Julian, January 15th, “When the Indians Defeat the Cowboys,” Jacobin Magazine, https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/01/standing-rock-indigenous-american-progress)
movement to stop Dakota Access and protect water indigenous rights like never before it would be a terrible mistake to characterize the victory at Standing Rock as fleeting indigenous cousins have long been organizing , litigating , and fighting for wins like Standing Rock climate change threatens to scorch indigenous rights are essential to protecting waters Standing Rock, monumental victory seized the reins of progress , opening up new frontiers of struggle for the many Standing Rocks that lie ahead political theorists often buy into the feathers-and-failure narrative Wolfe structure not an event theory ran into reality If settler societies are structurally dependent upon the elimination of the Native, how do we explain the resurgence of that same Native How do we explain the global emergence of recognition , and land rights How do we explain Standing Rock Wolfe’s theory is a gussied-up version of the inevitable victory of Cowboys over Indians — a reworking of Victorian ideology as critical theory The indigenous story unfolding before us demands more social democracy have been beaten back by the free market consensus . Yet over these same decades, indigenous rights gained ground often-overlooked indigenous victories belongs to indigenous movements pressured states to recognize their demands the stubborn dream of indigenous resurgence endured Indian New Deal ” afforded tribes greater control the Red Power movement policies based on recognition Maori Renaissance in New Zealand and land rights movement in Australia won similar gains More often indigenous people have coopted conservative forces as agents of an indigenous agenda indigenous people moved debate and policy in directions favorable to their interests Self-determination is now the established framework through the U N D R I P these are remarkable victories condescending assumption turned out to be dead wrong . And it opened up pathways to victory indigenous people emerge as cunning political tricksters into the courts . They outsmarted and outflanked politicians by simultaneously pressuring and cozying up to them they won important and lasting concessions bit by bit provided indigenous nations with access to government as well as leverage to deliver devastating blows to carbon capitalism even if their goals take decades to achieve. Politics is a long game effective resistance is strategic even more impactful when paired with subtle and cunning forms of persuasion . This is especially essential for [indigenous peoples] The Left incorporating an indigenous platform into the next generation of radical coalitions alongside discussed forms of oppression |
01dadc7009317de24f97b084934232c570b8081fa7d676a7aeb299600cc59bd4 | Bennet 12 | The aff’s method is key — we pose problems, study them, and then propose contingent solutions — that inspires critical thinking and bolsters decision-making
Bennet 12 — Sara Bennet (Poli Sci Prof at Penn State), 2012, “Guide to the Scientific Study of International Processes,” John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Published. pages 63-72
conclusions must be generalizable Predicting future events , and making choices requires we believe regularities exist We can be scientific in the face of randomness it is useful to frame the discussion of SSIP in the context of policy assessment policy teach students to be critical evaluators Part of teaching students should be why leaders are suggesting policy actions , and evaluate whether the actions make sense A single anecdote is less strong than a systematically collected sampled set of facts , cases data points. Generalization , and forecasting requires specific pieces of infor more the better. The scientific language may help students assess complicated political situations an SSIP-oriented teaching should be asking questions such as , What is your evidence? What are your cases ? Were they selected fairly |
005c2876a89ea656d9ef3547fe421088b40677eb24a34b120c214dd9ef7870d4 | communism democratic decision making | The alternative is democratic-communism---an abolishment of markets, the state, AND the private sector.
Mau ’23 [Søren; July 18; Postdoctoral Fellow, Department of Philosophy and the History of Ideas, Aarhus University, International Postdoctoral Fellow, Centre for Philosophy and Critical Thought, Department of Sociology, Goldsmiths University of London and Department for Arts and Cultural Studies, University of Copenhagen; VersoBooks, “Communism is Freedom,” https://www.versobooks.com/blogs/news/communism-is-freedom]
task is strengthen belief in possibility of organizing shared life in better way ideas function as orientation help us make decisions about how to act makes sense to have discussions about free society Communism consist in democratic decision-making humans are political whose freedom realized through self-determination Communism establish institutions ensure highest degree of freedom and control state abolished private companies dissolved private means of production expropriated new institutions built , which would manage econ Everyone choose commune commune control everything necessary to cover needs minimize risk of centralization referendum common there be assemblies seats elections and lotteries counteract elite and professionalization important task passing econ plans that replace market mech s econ divided into necessity and freedom various incentives used assigned by lottery or bundled commune’s dedicated to eco restoration to regulate natural resources secure existence for future gen s communism dissimilar from authoritarian socialism communist society be free , classless , and diverse synonymous with democratic decision-making stable biosphere econ security |
00a540ca4a6756c327fe18fc45649346f30dad1950ea7075b88465cf0b06c6ff | Yin Zou 24 | International trade is high, but fragile. Further protectionism pushes it over the edge.
Yin Zou 24. Executive Vice President of Corporate Development, DHL Group. “The pandemic exposed fragile supply chains: Here are 3 ways to strengthen them and build on global trade.” World Economic Forum. January 2, 2024. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/01/supply-chains-global-trade/
dynamic landscape of global trade protectionism create serious headwinds an environment that allows trade to flourish not a given severe disruptions Supply chains’ ability to adapt central pillar for long-term success Global Connectedness Index refutes retreat from globalization changes in trade patterns shifting alliances influencing international trade |
0410f92c6abf40936a510ba65ae7912bad1a019a6f5cebc8e4f6f837cd188f7f | Fed monetary policy nonpartisan | 1. Trump will wage a war against Fed independence. Partisan appointments of loyalists will inevitably undermine perception of neutrality.
Jordan Weissmann Former Lead Economics Writer for Slate & Washington Editor @ Semafor ’24 https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/08/donald-trump-federal-reserve-independence/679535/
Trump waged a public feud with the bank unlike any before He tweeted that Powell was an “ enemy” of America he began trying to push partisan loyalists Shelton known for fringe positions including support of the gold standard She argued the Fed should “pursue a relationship with the president.” Economists reacted in abject horror this election with more MAGA lawmakers Trump will have an easier time Trump could substantially reshape the character of the central bank even genuine policy disagreements could be interpreted as political gamesmanship that chip away market’s faith in the Fed Even one or two loyalists would break the norm monetary policy should be nonpartisan |
03e663c47c8046c9743ecda97795633b7dd049c90929983c255aaa5e5484d27a | Meierding 2020 | No energy wars---barriers and payoffs check.
Meierding 20 (, E. L (2020) The Oil Wars Myth [Project Muse]. Cornell University Press. https://doi.org/10.1353/book.84316. Emily Meierding is Associate Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. Her research has also examined international resource cooperation, oil prices and political instability, energy sanctions, states’ cultivation of international influence, and the linkages between climate change and armed conflict. She received her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Chicago. Before joining NPS, she taught or researched at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (Geneva, Switzerland) and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University. Her work has appeared in Security Studies, Comparative Politics, the Journal of Global Security Studies, the International Studies Review, Energy Research & Social Sciences, and Foreign Policy.)-rahulpenu
oil wars do not pay invasion occupation international and investment obstacles limits resources and revenue constrict payoffs production transportation sales and raising costs payoffs disappear entirely states reluctant to fight for oil severe militarized interstate conflicts driven by desire to obtain resources are implausible for producer s or consumer s these conflicts do not pay |
00a764277bae88fd7d9ca38ce5005a81b64171ccf4483732bac588cc86cc8ef3 | corn bad for cows | Feeding farm animals corn is a revolting manifestation of anthropocentrism and creates a rupture in nature
Pollan 2006, Michael (Michael Pollan is the Lewis K. Chan Arts Lecturer at Harvard University, and director of the Knight Program in Science and Environmental Journalism at UC Berkeley. He holds a bachelor’s from Oxford University, masters in English from Columbia University, an honorary doctorate from the University of Gastronomic Science, and was an 2022-2024 Guggenheim Fellow.)
corn violates the biological or evolutionary logic of bovine digestion Most health problems that afflict feedlot cattle can be traced to their diet . They’re made to eat forage and we’re making them eat grain Bloat is most serious thing wrong with a ruminant on corn The rumen presses against the animal’s lungs Unless action is taken (usually by forcing a hose down the animal’s esophagus), the animal suffocates corn can also give a cow acidosis Corn caus a kind of bovine heartburn that can kill the animal Acidotic animals go off their feed, pant and salivate excessively, paw and scratch their bellies, and eat dirt. The condition can lead to diarrhea, ulcers, bloat, rumenitis, liver disease, and a general weakening of the immune system that leaves the animal vulnerable to the full panoply of feedlot diseases—pneumonia, coccidiosis, enterotoxemia, feedlot polio. feedlot diets would eventually “blow out their livers” and kill them acids eat away at the rumen wall, allowing bacteria to enter the animal’s bloodstream they form abscesses and impair the liver’s function Between 15 percent and 30 percent of feedlot cows are found at slaughter to have abscessed livers figure runs as high as 70 percent. |
0114879d01bcdb5dd8f55bdd78568cf8851fb21feb73829374023f43a740fca8 | Unethical resisting capitalism's reliance | 2 Unethical – Resisting capitalism’s reliance on economic evaluation is the ultimate ethical responsibility – the current social order guarantees social exclusion on a global scale
Zizek and Daly 2k4 (Slavoj and Glyn, Conversations with Zizek page 14-16)
our ethico -political responsibility is to confront the violence of global capitalism in order to create a universal global system the forces of capitalism seek to conceal the politico-discursive violence of its construction through a kind of gentrification of that system the human cost and degraded ‘life- chances’ cannot be calculated the economic rationale and social exclusion remains mystified and nameless this mystification is magnified through capitalism’s profound capacity to ingest its own excesses and negativity to redirect antagonisms and to absorb them within a culture of differential affirmation |
02cc2377cce74519f1ff66716c62b6aa719d8c18cf99d3dc86c402f0a783dc6b | Trump nuke programs on steroids | Trump 2.0 guarantees nuclear war via arms racing, arms control erosion, debt explosion, and testing---extinction.
Cirincione ’24 [Joe; July 2; National Security Analyst, former President of the Ploughshares Fund, former Vice President of National Security at the Center for American Progress; Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “Trump Has a Strategic Plan For The Country: Gearing Up For Nuclear War,” https://thebulletin.org/2024/07/trump-has-a-strategic-plan-for-the-country-gearing-up-for-nuclear-war/]
re-elected Trump would put nuc s programs on steroids , trash arms control and trigger new nuc programs in other nations seizing control mean most dramatic build up of nuc s since Reagan scope , pace , and cost proposals accelerate nuc arms race decline in security and increase global conflicts explode national debt cost tens of billions weapons unleash nuc winter and famine that destroy all civilization Project 2025 compel Russia , China , Iran , and No Ko to increase budgets , warfighting deployments Japan , So Ko and Germany pushed over nuc line withdrawals from arms control is central goals U S abandon commitment not to test other nations follow suit push U S onto precipice of expensive and destabilizing nuc confrontation |
03a62c3a288791adcdb0a37174f3ecfa6ab79666ebe16b1a4485837ef599f8d0 | global catastrophe inflation | Fiscal miscalibration decimates markets. That guarantees extinction, escalating global tinderboxes and ruining societal adaptation.
Ellissa Cavaciuti-Wishart et al. 24, MPhil, Head, Global Risks, World Economic Forum; Sophie Heading, MA, Lead, Global Risks, World Economic Forum; Kevin Kohler, MA, Specialist, Global Risks, World Economic Forum; Saadia Zahidi, MPhil, Managing Director, World Economic Forum, "Global Risks 2024: At a Turning Point," & "Global Risks 2034: Over the Limit," in The Global Risks Report 2024, Chapter 1 & 2, January 2024, pg. 14-39. [italics in original]
small shock edge past the tipping point inflation heightens miscalibration downturn most central risk to trigger risks Escalat key hotspots – Ukraine , Israel and Taiwan powers step in eroding guardrails long term shifts in econ fragility contribute to conflict contagion viscerally threatening the world accelerate risk of inadvertent escalation frozen conflicts heat up include Balkans , Libya Kashmir and Korea hardship fuel n s a s control accelerate anti-Western sentiment power projection fade creating power vacuums new shocks would be unmanageable in fragility and passes the tipping point risk of miscalibration potentially deepen and prolong risks global risks where economic vulnerabilities build potential to become chronic resilience chipped away leaving states vulnerable emergent risks are arising upheaval elevate risk of global catastrophe inflation is corrosive on world order. soaring costs ate away at defense budget destabilize world where there is revolutionary kindling, inflation fatal spark Europe M E triggered protests, revolt repression Inflation create a inward-looking superpower as threats intensifying. defense budget risk being strangled by “inflation anaconda.” Pentagon build down as China expand Russia threaten conflict Iran |
00cb1c8b7db6d0d087e343ac797be1038521494932e8a1084041bd2f2002a3ea | land use is minor | If there is an impact, its tiny compared to emissions benefits and improving.
Busse ’21 [Julie; January 28; Director of Renewable Fuels at National Corn Growers Association Strategic Leader; National Corn Growers Association, “New Study Highlights the Environmental Benefits of Corn-Ethanol Showing a Reduction in Carbon Emissions by Almost 50 Percent,” https://www.ncga.com/stay-informed/media/in-the-news/article/2021/01/new-study-highlights-the-environmental-benefits-of-corn-ethanol-showing-a-reduction-in-carbon-emissions-by-almost-50-percent]
study emphasizes benefits of corn reduces emissions 46 percent Corn use sustainable practices to grow solution climate corn reduce carbon intensity and data shows land use is minor best science show low carbon fuel farmers increased yields from less land market-driven corn lowered fertilizer and fossil fuel |
00a247dab04ffb2b7f8537bdff8e1d7d722936f943503c9499725bb4b9605c53 | break Russian dominance | That’s key to maintain international non-prolif norms and break Russian dominance.
Ahn et. al 23 – Alan Ahn, Deputy Director for Nuclear for Third Way’s Climate and Energy Program, Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy (MALD) from Tufts University; Josh Freed, led Third Way’s clean energy and climate advocacy efforts; Ryan Norman, Policy Advisor for Third Way's Climate and Energy Program; Rowen Price, Policy Advisor for Nuclear Energy at Third Wave, 11/7/23, “Nuclear Fuel is a National Security Imperative”, https://www.thirdway.org/memo/nuclear-fuel-is-a-national-security-imperative
Building out nuclear fuel infrastructure is pressing given dependence on Russia uranium increase nuclear security and proliferation risks. Strengthening confidence serves as a linchpin to US policies in countering spread buildout meet not only domestic needs but also allies exports generate revenue and mitigating proliferation risks international presence essential so we set highest standards on nonproliferation new and emerging competitors offering technologies outside export controls meaning transactions do not require licenses bilateral cooperation etc Russia weaponizing exports to project influence Building out capacity important step leverage highest global standards for nonproliferation Without nuclear fuel collapse |
03f0db8a38bfeeb60775ffa1a80e40217386597c0d8f744dda6f049551aa4b2f | nuclear weapons terrorism | No nuclear terror.
Fettweis 19, Associate Professor of Political Science at Tulane and Ph.D. from the University of Maryland in US Foreign Policy (Christopher J. Fettweis, 2019, “Pessimism and Nostalgia in the Second Nuclear Age,” Strategic Studies Quarterly, University of Kansas Libraries, Lib Key)
nuc s have remained beyond capabilities of the terrorist . The fear knowledge and tech would become accessible remained a dream . Nor does there appear a reservoir of material waiting Given complexities with nuc s for amateurs expect a few failures public is aware of no attempts to construct, steal, or purchase much less detonate one |
03696049f42bcde171446b56099343876ab836f72936f7013f3b7e0ce3650196 | Unilateral declarations are binding | The ICJ will say: unilateral declarations that manifest intent are binding---that gets the U.S. on board.
Radavoi ’18 [Ciprian N.; Spring 2018; Lecturer in Law, University of New England, Australia, “Indirect Responsibility in Development Lending: Do Multilateral Banks Have an Obligation to Monitor Project Loans?,” 53 Tex. Int'l L.J. 1, Spring 2018]
voluntarily assumed standards by subjects of i law can be taken seriously as Unilateral Declarations binding based on good faith [W]hether the act breach treaty or rule is not relevant responsibility will result when the org does not live up to unilateral promises can bind unilaterally give rise to obligations must “[manifest] will to be bound when intention are fulfilled declarations are binding |
0306394aab041316f89961815f30a4274eddbbf57755f414437626d53e381885 | synthetic fuel technical hurdles | 2---Technical hurdles hinder adoption.
1AC Morris ’24 [James; May 7; Climate Risk and Resilience Manager for Accenture in the UK. James works extensively with Accenture’s global clients to manage the risks and opportunities to their business from the impacts of climate change; Karve International, “The Future of Sustainable Synthetic Fuel in Military Aviation,” https://www.karveinternational.com/insights/the-future-of-sustainable-synthetic-fuel-in-military-aviation]
Limited volumes mean SAF is more expensive Technical hurdles such as scalability and feedstock availability remain formidable barriers capital-intensive nature necessitates significant investments posing financial strains questions linger about its energy density, combustion and compatibility with existing aircraft s |
01987527165fc3e96fc068c88832bf79dbd5476dedf0206664ccf5b4dd7a788d | deontological imperative | Value to life is inevitable and subjective – their assertions are the only scenario for negative value
Schwartz, et al 2 Lisa, Lecturer in Philosophy of Medicine, Department of General Practice, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK; Paul Preece, Theme Coordinator of Medical Ethics, Dundee Medical School, Ninewells, Dundee, UK; and Rob Hendry, Medical Advisor, Medical & Dental Defense Union of Scotland, Mackintosh House, Glasgow, UK, Medical Ethics: A Case-Based Approach, p. 112, November 2002 /GoGreen!
determination of value of life is a subjective determination to be made by the person experiencing that life decisions based on quality lack information To ignore judgement is to violate the deontological imperative we must treat persons as ends in themselves. |
0330b3c6d0a283d2bb7d2a8f65530dfc55cef529ae6c77b5db8c9aded68ca88f | Casteli et al 24 | 7---Yes the story of Sorrow is partly missing due to the misery of slavery that offense – the 1ac is a performance of critical fabulation
Casteli et al 24 (Published in European Journal of Pragmatism and American PhilosophyBodies, Voices, Relations: Thinking with Adriana Cavarero Journal of Italian Philosophy Volume 7 (2024) Bodies, Voices, Relations: Thinking with Adriana Cavarero Edited by Federica Castelli, Marco Piasentier, and Sara Raimondi)
Adrian Cavarero’s conversation with Black feminist narrative rewriting archives of Black life in the wake selfhood in relational terms critical fabulation kind of relational women and lives invisible a counternarrative relational uniqueness the accidental needs care singularity in Western philosophy embodied uniqueness in the name of the Human , or Man philosophy has reduced uniqueness to fit epistemic framework universal Man marked by exposure, vulnerability, and dependence” tropes as fiction, mythology, and autobiography and distinct genres , concept of critical fabulation, narrates a counternarrative |
038b9d71736fa16eb05a7b3716922f2ccf76dc395d8c4d7ab56701a24d7cf870 | Middle East war unsustainable | No Middle East war and economic weakness prevents escalation.
Kaye 22, Senior Fellow, University of California Los Angeles Burkle Center for International Relations, former director, Center for Middle East Public Policy, RAND (Dalia Dassa Kaye, 2022, “America’s Role in a Post-American Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 45, No. 1, University of Kansas Libraries, Springer)
states are realigning Saudi the UAE , and Turkey began off ramps to regional wars as they de-escalate conflict with Iran Amid pandemic and econ downturns wars were unsustainable states began normalizing relations America increased concern over Iran partners nonetheless kept the door open Even staunchest in Saudi opened talks with Iran and increased engagement |
03e330953fc9ce9c062ff08340f7554a9f751f0612ccdcd5a5ebb6477d5e44aa | GOP fight climate bill | The GOP will fight tooth and nail against any climate bill – it’ll take a lot to get clean energy policies through
Tamborrino & Siegel 23 [Kelsey Tamborrino and Josh Siegel, "Big winners from Biden's climate law: Republicans who voted against it," POLITICO, 1-23-2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/23/red-states-are-winning-big-from-dems-climate-law-00078420, Bittner]
They didn’t vote for it, don’t like it and work to undermine climate law a balancing act for the GOP: Tout the jobs but not the bill clean power failed to sway a single vote people fought tooth and nail against the bill Republicans moved to slash funding of the agency charged with implementing climate law’s incentives Trump urged GOP to target “billions spent on climate extremism” in the fight over the debt limit |
017df8163945c6aeb9264a6d32401cb9ed75e9dd11ae9eb1df2fc4c26606f535 | Fear of death precludes hospitality | Fossil civilization’s fear of death precludes hospitality, making it impossible to cultivate existential affirmation.
James Rowe 23. [Associate Professor of environmental studies and cultural, social, and political thought at the University of Victoria. His interdisciplinary research program is motivated by a desire to understand and strengthen social movements working toward social and ecological justice. “Practice for a Just, Livable Future” in Radical Mindfulness: Why Transforming Fear of Death is Politically Vital. Set to be published in October, 2023. Taylor & Francis Group. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/edit/10.4324/9781003406181/radical-mindfulness-james-rowe]//dawn
Acknowledging death means accepting This can only promote life Denying death only brings more death distributed across axes of power crystallized by climate crisis will make life difficult. With hospitality under threat , harder to cultivate existential affirmation Higher fear increase fuel for supremacist relations facing our finitude is necessary Just because something is finite doesn’t mean it isn’t wonderful Despite finitude and fossil capitalism affirmation of basic goodness can support more just worlds |
0321430a485cfb4933da3313dafae817b8858cf6f3f590d584456edeca30f319 | AI superintelligence control problem | Control problem is intractable – only solution is to never build AI
Geist 15 [Edward Moore Geist, MacArthur Nuclear Security Fellow at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation, 8/9/15, “Is artificial intelligence really an existential threat to humanity?,” http://thebulletin.org/artificial-intelligence-really-existential-threat-humanity8577]
findings of a i researchers bode ill for recommendations for how to prevent machines from determining fate of mankind While incentives for a i to be friendly might seem obvious machines will be powerful enough to subvert these he focuses on “giving AI a final goal that makes it easier to control If machines develop godlike superintelligence a i researchers have learned the nature of reason itself will work against this plan to solve the “control problem |
00698b819946d8ccd0544d35f9347dc664c4b3f3b88a1cbf982be31272d915fa | Fusion produces no radioactive waste | Fusion produces no radioactive waste, uses seawater as its only fuel, and can’t meltdown.
Carr ’12 [Jacob; 2012; University of Pittsburgh and Research Engineer – National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health; “Nuclear Fusion Technologies and Their Applications as a Global Power Source”, 136.142.82.187/eng12/Chair/data/papers/2186/2186.docx]
fusion only uses hydrogen one of the most abundant elements hydrogen can be taken out of the air, as well as seawater fusion produces harmless products. combining two hydrogen isotopes creates helium neutrons , and energy These are desirable products reaction when compared to radioactive waste created by fission While fission can cause meltdowns fusion is easily monitored and controlled earth’s surface is 70% water 95% of that is seawater. This is the most abundant of any resources Even if only small amounts of energy can be yielded we could run reactions on large scale additive payoff would be immense there is a endless supply of isotopes negative effects would be non-existent fusion does not yield harmful products, and is safe and easy |
03e39034960c3ebd902d356eed4139f7dd4532db71348c3eb737c54e84b49f0c | carbon capture and storage | CCS locks in fossil fuel infrastructure.
Asayama '21 – Social Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan (Shinichiro Asayama; "The Oxymoron of Carbon Dioxide Removal: Escaping Carbon Lock-In and yet Perpetuating the Fossil Status Quo?"; Frontiers in Climate, Vol. 3, Sec. Carbon Dioxide Removal; 07-11-2021; https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.673515)
CCS presented as a “bridging tech appeal was to allow continued use of fossil fuels cost of renewable generation has fallen dramatically the cheapest in many places progress in CCS stalled and not been deployed adding CCS deepen lock-in building infrastructure for capturing transporting and storing as socio-technical system requires large capital investments with long lead-times This increases infrastructural inertia for decades and make difficult transition |
0051d4c0beea7cd6a246f439d1af3f5ef80944c901deb18b3f8dfd77fe6946e5 | shadow banking market assets | Shadow banking is huge---it controls almost half of all financial assets AND is set to increase in risk.
Alexander Jones 24. Senior Vice President of Portfolio Management overseeing over $1 billion in debt financing, B.S. in Finance, "Banks’ Ballooning Appetites for Private Credit Raise Shadow Banking’s Risks to the Financial System." International Banker. 9/3/2024. https://internationalbanker.com/banking/banks-ballooning-appetites-for-private-credit-raise-shadow-bankings-risks-to-the-financial-system/
giants partner with private credit seize lending away from incumbents shadow banking are big entities command substantial market assets worth $218 trillion nearly half of all financial assets By having different models sheets governance regulatory frameworks across jurisdictions sector as risk |
040bdf4e9aa80908e66c716b30a47e7e3f1fedaf2a7a3e650f05949d125ddcec | no such thing as innovation | There’s no such thing as ‘smart city innovation.’
Ziosi et al. 22, Marta Ziosi, Ph.D. candidate at the Oxford Internet Institute, Co-Founder of AI for People, M.Sc. in Philosophy and Public Policy from the London School of Economics; Benjamin Hewitt, M.Sc. in the Social Science of the Internet from the Oxford Internet Institute; Prathm Juneja, Ph.D. candidate at the University of Oxford, M.Sc. in Social Data Science from the Oxford Internet Institute; Mariarosaria Taddeo, Associate Professor and Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Internet Institute, Ph.D. in Philosophy from the University of Padua; Luciano Floridi, Professor of Philosophy and Ethics of Information at the University of Oxford, Director of the Digital Ethics Lab at the Oxford Internet Institute, Ph.D. in Philosophy from the University of Warwick, “Smart Cities: Mapping their Ethical Implications,” Oxford Internet Institute, 01-10-2022, https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4001761
smart city expressed by jargon as well as tension behind tech and human-driven conceptions tech is insufficient without lifestyle changes and policies to restore ecosystems ambiguity may be ev of lack of sound theorising reflects different perspectives depending on where one is changes depending on scale readiness for change, resources and citizens politics history, and geography bring to light hidden tensions and divergences elusive dynamics undermine any overarching, ethical aspects |
0320296412285274854904cb6caced89e26584613ecaf05609383024da0058a8 | Ben Ho 22 | It solves & avoids backlash, but the perm and the plan link.
Ben Ho 22, Professor of economics at Vassar College and former lead energy economist for the White House Council of Economic Advisers, “Prioritising innovation: the case against the carbon tax”, Economist Impact, 11-16-22, https://impact.economist.com/sustainability/net-zero-and-energy/prioritising-innovation-the-case-against-the-carbon-tax-ben-ho
Putting a price on carbon has not been popular few politicians are eager to attach their name with the word tax in it While shifting consumption is good innovation is better policies like subsidies do more Markets chase lower costs Forcing them to adopt higher-cost tech is like pushing a boulder up a hill Subsidies can move the economy over that hump returning money via a dividend has not proved popular Innovative tech is far easier to convince voters If I could turn back to the Industrial Revolution a carbon tax would be the centrepiece But subsidies have the highest chance of success |
00c29e00a4221139464354dabf8997b330f8bca0c835e7672bce1041a8e23a01 | Perm do both bad nihilism | 10. Perm Do both-- They are a bad form of nihilism which inappropriately accepts contingencies as givens---the AFF, and perm are strong nihilism---which acknowledges the truths of pessimist critique but acts nonetheless in an assertion of agency.
Devon R. Johnson 17, Devon R. Johnson completed his Ph.D. in philosophy at Temple University with specializations in Black existentialism, political philosophy, and continental philosophy in 2014. His dissertation is entitled “A Philosophical Analysis of Nihilism and Antiblack Racism.” He is currently a teaching instructor for the NJ-STEP program at Rutgers University (Newark). Spring 2017, “Beyond Tradition: A Short Rumination on Africana Philosophy and Nihilism in 21st Century America,” Newsletter of the American Philosophical Association, Philosophy and the Black Experience, Volume 16, Number 2, http://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.apaonline.org/resource/collection/950518C1-3421-484C-8153-CDA6ED737182/BlackExperienceV16n2.pdf
whether racism is metaphysical or not one must fight for values beyond these traditions. In the question of whether one ought to be pessimistic one may miss the underlying question of how to transition from dying to living values weak nihilism attempts to arrest existential development Pessimism treats phenomena as ontological A strong nihilistic response rejects all human values attempting to ontologize themselves strong Black nihilism is the healthier response because it involves a transvaluation of traditional anti-Black racist valuing a commitment to constructing non-decadent human worlds Afro-pessimism misconstrues legitimately pessimistic dimensions of Black life as fundamentally precluding Black meaning pessimism and strong nihilism ( and thus, an ironic optimism ) are necessarily related Nihilism is the attempt to value anew in light of the truths of pessimism anti-Black racist ideals must be moved beyond regardless One’s prescription for legal programs in such realities, must take anti-Black racism seriously however whether one chooses to treat this reality as permanent or not , the question of what it means to value beyond tradition remains strong nihilism , through the struggles of pessimism and despair, is the way to healthily move beyond tradition to do more than cope or make the insufferable sufferable |
03b6dfc5ba0151ce56208befeaa3a66db27b922ff578c37e4714454454f92e56 | inflation is corrosive on world order | Fiscal miscalibration decimates markets. That guarantees extinction, escalating global tinderboxes and ruining societal adaptation.
Ellissa Cavaciuti-Wishart et al. 24, MPhil, Head, Global Risks, World Economic Forum; Sophie Heading, MA, Lead, Global Risks, World Economic Forum; Kevin Kohler, MA, Specialist, Global Risks, World Economic Forum; Saadia Zahidi, MPhil, Managing Director, World Economic Forum, "Global Risks 2024: At a Turning Point," & "Global Risks 2034: Over the Limit," in The Global Risks Report 2024, Chapter 1 & 2, January 2024, pg. 14-39. [italics in original]
small shock edge past the tipping point inflation heightens miscalibration downturn most central risk to trigger risks Escalat key hotspots – Ukraine , Israel and Taiwan powers step in eroding guardrails long term shifts in econ fragility contribute to conflict contagion viscerally threatening the world accelerate risk of inadvertent escalation frozen conflicts heat up include Balkans , Libya Kashmir and Korea hardship fuel n s a s control accelerate anti-Western sentiment power projection fade creating power vacuums new shocks would be unmanageable in fragility and passes the tipping point risk of miscalibration potentially deepen and prolong risks global risks where economic vulnerabilities build potential to become chronic resilience chipped away leaving states vulnerable emergent risks are arising upheaval elevate risk of global catastrophe Extreme weather Biod loss ecosystem collapse resource shortages Pollution Adverse AI reflect existential risks and disinfo Cyber insecurity terrorism inflation is corrosive on world order. soaring costs ate away at defense budget destabilize world where there is revolutionary kindling, inflation fatal spark Europe M E triggered protests, revolt repression Inflation create a inward-looking superpower as threats intensifying. defense budget risk being strangled by “inflation anaconda.” Pentagon build down as China expand Russia threaten conflict Iran |
02ac3685ccc138195afcc10b3c8eafc10c5cabf68bc4cb25a9bdb5761dfcfb16 | agonistic account of legal disagreement | And, the role of the ballot is to vote for whoever does the better debating over the resolutional question —this does not limit argumentative styles, but tying those to topical advocacy ensures clash which is the only vehicle for education debate provides
Poscher 16 [Director at the Institute for Staatswissenschaft and Philosophy of Law at the University of Freiburg (Ralf, “Why We Argue About the Law: An Agonistic Account of Legal Disagreement”, Metaphilosophy of Law, Tomasz Gizbert-Studnicki/Adam Dyrda/Pawel Banas (eds.), Hart Publishing)]
Only if reasoning is exposed to contrary arguments can we test its merits . We must go through the “labor of the negative” group polarization can be countered by disagreement opposing positions profit from the negative tarrying with it entering into an exchange can test and improve our position We might not know what we believe until we have developed argument to discuss with someone who opposes might be the most helpful way of corroborating our adversary is motivated to find a flaw objectives could not be achieved by a non‐argumentative procedure Pure argumentative procedures not geared towards a decision undercut the incentive structure That debates are about winning or losing helps keep the participants engaged If the judges were to flip a coin there would be little incentive The fulcrum lie in an overlapping common ground of materials , accepted practices two athletes in the same contest follow the same rules but different styles they are engaged in the same process these allow for disagreements without abandoning talking about the same concept Such a semantic collapses only when we lack sufficient overlap the capitalist system would like citizens not demanding their government redistribute wealth capitalists love to see people turn to each other This is due of anti-state rhetoric The state is not just prisons or the military the right hate the EPA and public education Because they don’t want to educate the working class and clean up industry When the left embraces anarcho-liberal notions of being outside government it cuts itself off from important democratic resources The state should be an arena of class struggle When the left turns its back on social democratic features it risks playing the hand of the right movements should attack government until they comply As we enter climate change, it’s important to be aware of existing legal mechanisms with which we can contain capital it is important to think about bureaucracies that are part of complex systems students are not making demands of the EPA It’s because there’s an anti-state ethos and romanticization of the local this doesn’t recognize how global political economy works . ignoring government is the dominant worldview among the US left the fossil fuel industry is the most powerful force the world has ever seen what could rebuff them? The state We should use government to levy astronomical fines contradictions of the state is an old story anti-statist common sense is a fantasy of empowerment The neoliberal project is anti-statist rhetoric They sell the idea that people need to be liberated We need to restructure the state. capitalism has failed mired in economic stagnation extreme inequality mass unemployment poverty, hunger, and a planetary ecological “death spiral.” fascism is on the march, along with patriarchy, racism, imperialism, and war. Stagnation of investment punctuated by bubbles which inevitably burst , The capture of surplus value is leading to an unprecedented amassing of financial wealth at the center of the world economy In every region of the world, inequality has increased sharply health care, housing, education, and clean water and air are out of reach Overuse of antibiotics is leading to superbugs racially segregated schools are pipelines for prisons or the military. constituting a new Jim Crow Racial divides are now widening across the planet. Violence against women and expropriation of their labor are integral to capitalist society . Elections are increasingly prey to “dark money” from the billionaire class. War has become perpetual and threatens to escalate into a global thermonuclear exchange Torture and assassinations have been reinstituted A new Cold War and nuclear arms race is in the making racist barriers against immigration continue to be erected poverty across the globe is so severe that one can refer to a “planet of slums.” from climate change to ocean acidification to widespread pollution species exterminations” resulting from climate change are compounding biodiversity loss. half of all species will be facing extinction by the end of the century. the world is close to a Hothouse in which climate change will be locked in and irreversible. corporations continue to intervene in climate negotiations to ensure that any agreements are defanged. threatening the future of humanity. the costs of war, depletion of resources, waste of lives, and disruption of the environment far exceed any benefits that capitalism offers base building and dual power best forwarded through organizing allow this movement to solidify into a revolutionary socialist tendency revolution is not currently possible. dual power responds By building institutions which can meet people’s needs, we offer relief from capitalism. in order to mobilize the base we need to have already done the work of building a communist party. It is not enough to meet needs. we must build institutions of dual power We must refuse covert front organizing and instead have a public face as a communist party. membership is formally unified around a party line determined by democratic decision making. holding party members accountable , unifying action and for educating They empower communities to theorize through communist theory while organizing to fight for their liberation. formal structures allow individual locals to have a voice in open debate, but also a unified strategy party organizing allows for organizers to be held accountable with unity working together to sharpen strategies and to help correct chauvinist ideas accountability is crucial . imperialist and colonial ideal frequently infect leftist organizing formal procedure allows us to address these organizations ought to adopt recruitment education in communist theory and praxis, and militant party cadres capable of defending institutions from state terror. a unified national party will be the long term goal |
02adabc5d00be3516e4fc948800122e072784969afb8c8c29e8b4b16c26785a9 | Black burial plots praxis | Thus, we affirm a praxis of the plot; the autopoietic reproduction of the memory of Black burial plots, communal farms, and spaces of healing redescribes the descriptive statement of man2 away from economic rationality.
Alex A. Moulton 24, Assistant Professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental Science at Hunter College “Plotting a New Course for Environmental Humanities: Provision Grounds, Race, and the Future,” Environmental Humanities, vol. 16, no. 2, 07/01/2024, pp. 271–290//sheima
deciphering how signifying practices establish systems of value is crucial to cultural revolutions against dominant imaginaries understanding the plot in terms of world-making as a methodology follows from Wynter’s reminder that humans are a storytelling species Following sociogeny Being human is a praxis challenging the overrepresentation of one genre of the human promises better environmental futures since ecological degradation and destruction are direct effects of cultural hegemony A future beyond narrow conceptions of the human will be a future of better ecological realities focus on these spaces allows different plots— storylines—to come into view Black burial plots, traditional fishing grounds, and farms—a Black commons—as memorializing Black ecological stewardship The plot becomes space of insurgent Black political movements a fugitive sociality Black commons constitute an emergent ecology reflecting how Black communities make life against toxification, pollution, and uneven vulnerability to environmental disaster plantation futures can go two ways the system is left untouched and we are left to defend it and , where the workings of the system are engendered in a plot-life Black ecocritical work traces the plot’s reproduction into contemporary urban geographies . spaces of otherness provide a vocabulary for plot-work our landscape is its own monument |
03ad86dc4044eb224baae3c4a4582827d8e1b0a45911d677536a70ec074f9447 | Warming is a market failure | Framing warming as a market failure is good---lack of pricing is the root cause of the problem, and any alternative fails.
Chun 21, Engineer at Tapestry, a company working on integrating renewable electricity into the grid, B.A., Computer Science and Economics at Dartmouth University (Steven Chun, January 21, 2021, “Carbon Pricing and its Progressive Discontents,” https://blog.stevenchun.me/2021/01/Carbon-Pricing-and-its-Progressive-Discontents/) *text inserted from tweet screenshot.
There’s wariness among the left towards anything market “ Climate is not a market glitch pipes in Flint weren’t “ market failure .” this is not good pricing is at the heart of everything we need to reduce emissions and at same time , keep people fed , housed , and cool the homeowner might install solar fight you on transit colonialism’s economic model there is a common thread . It is cheap to emit suburbs sprawl , because it is cheap to drive if we priced things in proportion to damage Bad things would be more expensive , and people do them less |
003b29261ad74f75a2e3a753f936a3919c6533cc700ba0ef15a57b64a3051ca7 | grounded normativity recenters debate | This is an acknowledgment that land and the environment have agential capacity. The production of archives has erased indigenous legacies for understanding land and interconnectivity, but grounded normativity recenters the debate over how to refuse conquest.
Byrd et. al 18 (Jodi Ann Byrd is an American indigenous academic. They are an associate professor of Literatures in English at Cornell University, where they also hold an affiliation with the American Studies Program. Alyosha Goldstein is Associate Professor in the Department of American Studies at the University of New Mexico. Jodi Melamed is assistant professor of English and Africana Studies at Marquette University. Chandan Reddy is Assistant Professor of English at the University of Washington. “Predatory Value: Economies of Dispossession and Disturbed conomies of Dispossession and Disturbed Relationalities” English Faculty Research and Publications. 519. 6-2018) mk
Against commensurabilities rationalities of settler colonialism racial capitalism seek alternative frameworks for building capacities for grounded relationality literally situated in relation to the land without precluding movement being grounded nonhuman world and materiality have agential significance exceed liberal conceptions knowledge remain grounded land calls to us find place within ongoing interconnectivity apprehend relationality across systems of capitalism, colonialism, and chattel slavery and afterlives land understood not as territory but relation with agency building capacities for relationality outside the logics of propriation possible to handle incommensurate demands land to serve as ontological condition for different concept refuses conquest liberal freedoms, fail to halt expropriation of collective life critical to turn attention to praxes build capacities for relationality beyond propriation afterlife persists asked to confront ontological, political, economic implications of colonization anticapitalist norms of “consent not to be a single being” decenter bodies as site of pure labor think more fluidly reinvigoration of l indigenous laws grounded normativity reframed praxis as baseline for anticolonial solidarities relationship to land generates processes practices, knowledges inform political systems, willfully abandon them auto-genocide Grounded normativity provides ethical way of knowing more expansive than ontologies that prioritize the human as exceptional extends memory through vast kinship networks assume vibrancy agency beyond limits of enlightenment notions of self property Indigenous interventions to categories codified by settler law, policy also critiques of colonialism reorient knowledge through Indigenous returns to land, philosophy, diplomacy, activism, and kinship. colonialism inflected understanding of nature, memory, and history through production of archives knowledge production favor hegemonic white possession. grounded normativity”— teach us about living lives in relation to one another in a nonexploitative way ”? consider land as agentive fungibility |
0017458e7068c9fad6bd9b7ff946296c0678c45cfcd1e8dda4f54fbbd54ed391 | oil never caused major conflicts | 2---Alt causes war, and any real oil wars didn’t escalate.
Meierding ‘20 [Emily; assistant professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Chicago,
the historical record indicates countries fought 180 oil wars a closer look reveals that none merits the oil war ” label countries fought for other reasons , including regional hegemony , domestic politics, national pride , or other assets Oil was an uncommon trigger and never caused major conflicts oil spats were brief nonfatal and n ever escalated |
03b742692443da3f06e29594fcaf339d598338f6f93f2df6aabb6e71b5624e75 | Electricity theft displays grid porosity | Decarbonization further electrifies modernity by circulating more energy and solidifying relationships of power that are anti-black. Siphoning energy can rework these structures of power.
Dr. Sage Gerson 22, Assistant Professor at the Rhode Island School of Design, June 2022, “Introduction: The Leaky Grid,” Introduction to The Leaky Grid: Black and Native Electrified Imaginaries, pp. 1-25, https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7s96972x
As climate change intensifies Many imagine electrification to transition from fossil fuels Yet energy transition merely swaps one source for another , retains “ existing inequalities —indeed, requires them climate change, a result of colonialism capitalism , and injustice , is not solely an emissions issue it is dangerous to reduce climate change to ‘emissions’ and leave the processes that caused climate change we “have to reimagine electricity use that does not extend the patterns of the present continues colonial extraction and Indigenous displacement the grid , and modernity produce racialized violence through environmental white supremacy against the grid’s colonialist mythology of control and containment electricity siphoning provid opportunity to unpack web of power relations that electrification is at the center of infrastructural systems electricity are wrapped up in modernity While narratives construct Black people as outside modernity, The Leaky Grid prioritizes electrified Black cultural production to ensure they are no longer relegated to the outskirts the connection between progress and electricity is more complex and extractive than progress infrastructure materializes power relations electricity theft displays the grid’s porosity and provides opportunity to unpack relations and to unsettle white relationships to energy and the environment Energy circulation cannot exist without environmental conquest and control Infrastructures are “ always vulnerable through electricity theft never closed |
023e1694fd7c47daf796980096560de4c66df1c4f60463850bae7468b916ca76 | utopian society liberalism abolish disability | The affirmative participation Liberalism systematically ensures that disabled people are excluded from participation within society and affirms liberalism. This perpetuates exclusionary ideas of disability. Ensures perm fails.
Pothier & Devlin 06, * Dianne graduated and received several academic awards from Dalhousie Law School. She clerked with Justice R.G. Brian Dickson of the Supreme Court of Canada, then served as Senior Advisory Counsel to the Chair of the Canada Labour Relations Board. She became a faculty member of Dalhousie Law School in 1986. Dianne was regarded as Canada’s leading legal scholar and activist on disability and the law. She received the Frances Fish Women Lawyers’ Achievement Award, the CBA President’s Award, and the Bertha Wilson Honour Society. ** Richard Devlin is a Professor of Law at the Schulich School of Law, Dalhousie University. In 2005, he was appointed a Dalhousie University Research Professor, and this position was renewed in 2010. His areas of teaching include Contracts, Jurisprudence, Legal Ethics and Graduate Studies. He has published widely in various journals, nationally and internationally. . (*Dianne **Richard, Jan 11, “Critical Disability Theory: Essays in Philosophy, Politics, Policy and law ,” UBC Press, Critical Disability Theory: Essays in P) Pg 9-12 ( edited for ableist language) //AF
starting point for liberalism is disability is about misfortune or bad luck If the starting point is misfortune engagement must be prevention society, develop that certain kinds of lives are not worth living appreciation of disability sends a very powerful message to disabled people misfortune is to buy into a framework of pity rather than inclusion misfortune is to create a hierarchy of difference In a utopian society liberalism would seek to abolish disability, on the basis that human beings are not meant to "suffer Equality is not about charity charitable approach focus on bare survival rather than on participation and susceptible to budgetary restraint disability demands coming to terms with difference to ignore disability is to engender exclusion a set of stairs is an barrier for a wheelchair user. Getting in is the first step. Formal equality is inadequate for persons with disabilities ableist norms ignore difference |
03c1502ed5a2075b65380a9f54f898e620b2411003f5d845a40133b9aea5542e | Jackson 24 | Advisors causes extinction.
Jackson ’24 [Van; June 18; PhD, Professor of International Relations at Victoria University of Wellington; Un-Diplomatic, “MAGA Geopolitics: Between Extinction and a New Dark Age,” https://www.un-diplomatic.com/p/maga-geopolitics-between-extinction]
China hawks Pottinger called for regime change in Beijing that is a death sentence Miller deploying Marine Corps to Asia and nuc testing Asia’s already a powder keg Adding Marines is likely to cause war If we’re unlucky, we end up with extinction nuclear testing was a common path to Armageddon |
02e8480b9d35646e1f92eacdc7e918b2871830dbc274d738b058308024c08342 | trade policy closer to mainstream | Trump protectionism was just rhetoric- actual trade policies didn’t significantly change
James, 18 – Princeton University International Affairs professor
despite fiery rhetoric about trade wars implementation may play a lesser role Words are hotter than actions the actual trade policy is closer to mainstream The whole process looked like strategic bargaining , Eu and Chinese responses were precision strikes |
02903b2dc043ef7e2738a5a900e01ad00ac4fb2e2e2885622a0e0f872005dc19 | knowledge would wait ready | It would give cause for intentional extinction AND if not, makes rebuilding inevitable.
Bostrom 19, Ph.D., Professor in the Faculty of Philosophy at Oxford University, Founding Director of the Future of Humanity Institute (Nick Bostrom, 2019, “The Vulnerable World Hypothesis,” Global Policy, Vol. 10, No. 4, University of Kansas Libraries, Wiley)
Metal is synonymous with civilization glass remain scattered Batteries and magnets could be stashed away cities be destroyed by nihilists or folk who want to ‘ see what would happen ’ by nuclear fallout societies split into civil wars with nuc s , producing famine and pestilence Even then insight would be passed down generations If civilization began to rise from ashes knowledge would wait , ready as soon as people learned again to make glass and electric generators even if forgotten be rediscovered |
023fd2a0db490836443df1546bf7f1b78ab57caf571e14720783270432a76e90 | Pharma innovation is high now | Pharma Innovation is high now.
S&P Global 2/3 (Standards and Poor Global is an American company focusing on stock market information and American innovation.; “Pharmaceutical Industry 2025 Credit Outlook Is Stable as Healthy Revenue Growth Mitigates Pressures.” Spglobal.com, 2025, www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/250203-pharmaceutical-industry-2025-credit-outlook-is-stable-as-healthy-revenue-growth-mitigates-pressures-13394024. Accessed 9 Feb. 2025.)Rinehart.
Pharma's Revenue Growth Will Remain Healthy Through 2027 due to advances new products antibody drug combination products We expect 8% annually |
02a94b6d0bef41763d19c40009125c8057d50e1d0bb6749662b59e33240eb467 | AI energy consumption | AI innovation requires heaps of energy—REs just can’t keep up.
Mills ’24 [Mark P. Mills, Distinguished Senior Fellow, Texas Public Policy Foundation and Faculty Fellow, McCormick School of Engineering, Northwestern University, ”The ‘Energy Transition’ Won’t Happen,” CITY JOURNAL, 5—23—24, https://www.city-journal.org/article/the-energy-transition-wont-happen, accessed 8-13-24]
innovation is followed by epic increase in energy consumption. electric car in every garage would double electricity demands especially true for AI every chip uses as much electricity as three electric vehicles appetite for chips is unlimited demand for power three times as great adding AI to Google boosts energy tenfold. transition aspirations and realities of AI are in conflict There aren’t ways to meet scale without more nat gas AI-infused datacenters shatter decoupling of growth from energy use an hour of video is greater than share of fuel consumed by a ten-mile bus ride There’s no evidence this will change energy use is result of gains in computing efficiency An “energy transition” would only restrict energy supplies the U.S. does have resource capacity to supply energy |
007d8ac3fcd349c48caf671306caf47345f7d21fab9fabcaa1dd73e948e9ef72 | mbi moral outrage | Reject sweeping critiques of MBI – can’t disprove the aff without engaging policy specifics – MBIs increase public pressure to reduce corporate pollution
Kim 2024 – Hajin Kim, Assistant Professor, University of Chicago Law School (“Does Paying to Pollute Make Pollution Seem Less Bad?,” https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4990747) Texas AF
Contrary to anti-commodification critique perceived inadequacy of market reg s encourage greater moral outrage m b i s made companies polluting in compliance look morally worse than compliance of a mandate extra moral credit companies obtain for complying with a mandate lead to moral licensing and create room for greater transgressions . instituting an effective tool is unlikely to signal pollution is less morally bad sequencing of policies brought regulatory standards after the fact broader stance against m b i s hopelessly naïve given tool’s success de pend on context Paying to pollute does not reduce moral stigma Formal interstate compacts are federal law The federal government would involve itself in an agreement that me criteria in Virginia v. Tennessee or significantly impacted federal interests if tribal land is involved, federal involvement is certain Constitutionally all interstate agreements require congressional consent Virginia v. Tennessee balanced agreement-making capacity of states with federal powers any agreement that intruded on powers reserved to the federal government would trigger congressional consent requirement congressional approval required for formal and informal interstate agreements . an agreement lacking these qualities did not qualify because It did not create a joint governing body condition itself to other state's action and allowed each state to change their own laws without permission |
039a71ae12299f4f0ecbb23f48cb6378a0dcba249402dca424eb68227c09c0c9 | Pakistani foreclosure collapses the state | Pakistani foreclosure collapses the state.
Sareen 22, Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, MA in Economics from the University of Delhi (Sushant Sareen, June 25, 2022, “Pakistanis confident the world won’t let a nuclear state collapse. They forget Soviet Union,” The Print, https://theprint.in/opinion/pakistanis-confident-the-world-wont-let-a-nuclear-state-collapse-they-forget-soviet-union/1011544/) *Title inserted in first line.
Pakistanis confident world won’t let a nuclear state collapse forget Soviet Union run out of money been in a boom-bust cycle every three years deep problems have never been addressed . Governments kick the can down the road The standard procedure during crisis is to get breathing space go hat in hand to Saudi The problem is easy money is no longer available Saudis imposed stiff conditions It is clear without rescue , Pakistan will default and become a Sri Lanka crisis on steroids |
02236c3bc2a01f41efee0239b4b5e6a5e53c4704c98678f00ca288ac4f4a3df3 | US commitments | Allied prolif, transition wars, nuke terror.
Wright 20 – Director, Center on the US & Europe and Sr. Fellow, Project on Internat’l Order & Strategy at Brookings
Trump increased U.S. commitments But could change quick retrenchment is the alternative a grave mistake destabilize regional security increase nuclear prolif empower right-wing nationalists and aggravate major-power conflict advocates of retrenchment call for wholesale replacement since W II abandonment of a strategy that served it well for decades Posen argued the U S should abandon mutual-defense pulling back invite regional security competition a perilous gambit regional conflicts implicat U.S. interests drawing the U S back in after it left more dangerous than heading off conflict in the first place allies have behaved responsibly pullback is more likely to embolden if the Baltic were no longer protected by U.S guarantee Russia would test the boundaries Japan increase its defense nuclear prolif allies , no longer protected acquire nuc s materials end up in the hands of terrorists states with less experience prone to accidents close proximity have shorter response times conflicts have a greater chance of escalation most likely end state spheres-of-influence inherently unstable lines of demarcation tend to be unclear China and Russia move them outward current U.S. policy is working and sustainable , a geopolitical experiment of unprecedented scale two stable regions plunge into an era of uncertainty |
00ad9bb624c42e19204aa4e36eded83ebf2d650e160d3148601eb014595dbefc | Perm do both | Perm do both - solves all their offense because it reduces emissions in the short-term and builds a long-term sustainable future
Nick J. Fox 23, Professor of Sociology, Department of Social and Psychological Sciences, University of Huddersfield, UK, The Sociological Review, Vol. 71(5), pages 1129-1130, “Green capitalism, climate change and the technological fix: A more-than-human assessment,” 2023, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/00380261221121232, Accessed: 09/10/2024, AKS
alternative is a pragmatic approach that acknowledges that a market economy may facilitate emissions reduction this pragmatism shifts the emphasis toward efforts to rapidly transition to renewable energy this strategy aims to reduce the ecological impact and inequalities of capitalism by scaling back ecologically destructive or unnecessary production, improving well-being, and using fiscal policy to reduce inequalities globally Such an approach is politically achievable and incremental. It encourages collaborations between citizens , universities companies and government agencies to work with policy-makers toward an internationally-shared and achievable programme . the unfettered dynamics of capitalist production and markets can be tempered, while ideologies promoting globalisation and neoliberalisation are replaced with a more managed approach to economic development |
0051d4c0beea7cd6a246f439d1af3f5ef80944c901deb18b3f8dfd77fe6946e5 | private credit raise shadow banking risks | Shadow banking is huge---it controls almost half of all financial assets AND is set to increase in risk.
Alexander Jones 24. Senior Vice President of Portfolio Management overseeing over $1 billion in debt financing, B.S. in Finance, "Banks’ Ballooning Appetites for Private Credit Raise Shadow Banking’s Risks to the Financial System." International Banker. 9/3/2024. https://internationalbanker.com/banking/banks-ballooning-appetites-for-private-credit-raise-shadow-bankings-risks-to-the-financial-system/
giants partner with private credit seize lending away from incumbents shadow banking are big entities command substantial market assets worth $218 trillion nearly half of all financial assets By having different models sheets governance regulatory frameworks across jurisdictions sector as risk |
030f3daded675cbbe3e93cf234d50f69ef5bd92f183a201e7602e4cda91f9146 | climate crisis normalizes violence | Rejecting climate policy cedes the political to eco-fascists, who will use the climate crisis to normalize their own violent ‘solutions.’
Knights 20 [Sam Knights is a writer, actor, and climate activist. He is the coeditor of This Is Not a Drill: An Extinction Rebellion Handbook. 11-16-20, The Climate Movement Must Be Ready To Challenge Rising Right-Wing Environmentalism, Jacobin, https://jacobin.com/2020/11/climate-change-right-wing-environmentalism-alt-right-eco-fascism, JKS]
Right offer “pragmatic” and “realistic” solutions to climate based on fantasy going to demonize refugees and tell us left-wing want developed countries to give up everything One of the dreadful solutions will be “population control inevitably spill into the public sphere lifeboat ethics”: Right successfully depoliticize climate crisis can lead to devastating consequences. violent philosophy of far-right environmentalism is being normalized |
004bf92d7a8ee7b1dbe91c8c1fd80c59960f8ff6b4a75c106c240ec57fb2670e | affects act as a scalar solution | Affect doesn’t scale up to material transformation
David Sergeant 18, Lecturer in English, University of Plymouth, School of Humanities and Performing Arts, University of Plymouth, “Representing the Planet: Affect, Scale and Utopia,” Novel: A Forum on Fiction, https://pearl.plymouth.ac.uk/handle/10026.1/12724, [inserted “might” after to “might medium” because I believe “might medium” is a typo; alteration denoted by brackets]
scalar problems are built into the existent world exposing collective affect as an empty lyricism when modelled as pre-subjective intensities , affects act as a scalar solution one and many both in themselves This underlies transformative role theories ‘ don’t answer the question of how human nature can be transmuted making it available to narrative and history fluency is inevitably lost the question remains as to what medium into a different kind of future and up the chain of scale . |
005df452965ef8dbf7c487b904192ef80dce362ce2a412908ed710b5bd0d4af4 | Tax havens prove offshoring | Tax havens prove offshoring.
Asmin, Howell 16 – Ash Asmin, Professor of Geography in the Department of Geography at the University of Cambridge, UK, Phillip Howell, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Cambridge, 2016, “Releasing the Commons," Routledge Studies in Human Geography, https://www.routledge.com/Releasing-the-Commons-Rethinking-the-futures-of-the-commons/Amin-Howell/p/book/9781138546486, AB
Offshoring getting around rules avoid regulations Money staying onshore exception Most big money offshored Almost all major companies possess offshore accounts half world trade $21 trillion banking sector most prolific user of tax havens over half of overseas subsidiaries of major banks ‘treasure islands’ of low tax |
036c6fdace430d49f505290a50f01e39f0daed312219c8d77c9e93a24bd00f43 | Trump ignites global trade wars | 1 -- Double Bind – Either Trump ignites global trade wars on day one.
Economist 11-7, (11-7-2024, “The world faces its worst trade wars since the 1930s,” The Telegram, https://www.economist.com/international/2024/11/07/the-world-faces-its-worst-trade-wars-since-the-1930s)
THE WORLD stands on the brink of multiple trade wars unleashed by Trump reluctant clashes will follow by blocs whose prosperity depends on foreign markets trade-friendly governments feel obliged to retaliate Trump returns with a mandate to impose tax rises on trade on a historic scale threatening China with 60% tariff taxing Mexican cars 500% and flat tariff of 20%. openness to dealmaking should not distract from the magnitude Trump can raise tariffs on day one under Section 301 He could announce a fresh probe to address “new misdeeds Tariffs folded into a federal tax bill due in 2025 Trump could issue an ex o to examine all trade |
014fae438be0ea0a865fe3046c36f0f972973b0b503e29d9d4eab66ae71a54bb | Saudi Arabia rentier model | The rentier model can endure boom and bust cycles---only the obsolescence of oil ends it.
Thafer 20, PhD, Executive Director of Gulf International Forum, Professorial Lecturer at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies at Georgetown University. (Dania, 6-1-2020, "Saudi Arabia is addicted to the rentier model until the oil runs out," Middle East Eye, https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/collapse-gccs-rentier-state-only-matter-time) *language edited in brackets
State benefits to Saudi nationals fluctuate and have yet to cross the threshold that would redefine state-society relations the oil industry is one of boom and bust so prices will rebound Saudi has been deliberate not to impose direct taxes VAT and subsidy reforms are carefully selected measures that allow the preservation of the core tenets benefits such as allowances, which reward citizens for acquiescence will remain a tool The social contract is slowly evolving, but the fundamental rentier state dynamics remain the same the social contract will remain intact until oil becomes obsolete |
02f4a029bf56359cf3bdb3d883a04776d7ac19a139f9bfd6585659785b04bd4b | Gas prices dropping 2025 | Inflation’s on the decline
Lee 12-31-24 [Anne Marie Lee, editor for CBS MoneyWatch, “Gas prices recede and could continue dropping in 2025, forecast finds,” 12-31-24, CBS News, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2025-predictions-gas-prices-us/]
expect lower gas prices as inflation eases amid booming domestic oil production After few weeks of rising prices national average reversed declining as we close out 2024 provide relief for consumers, who grapple with elevated prices economists expect inflation to fall in 2025 expect underlying inflation trend to fall |
036cc157652779fb339d884ed92e169cc933afa8e76b7a9f5430d94ec6369c3f | OPEC output curb | Saudi oil revenue is strong and key to growth. Price drops are offset by production increases.
Chandak 10-23, polling correspondent. (Anant, 10-23-2024, “Saudi Arabian economic growth to accelerate in 2025 as oil taps open: Reuters poll,” Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabian-economic-growth-accelerate-2025-oil-taps-open-2024-10-23/)
growth in Saudi will accelerate thanks to higher oil output OPEC has been curbing output since 2022 but is expected to increase production lower prices and higher production volumes offset each other real growth will still benefit Saudi have been exploring ways to diversify oil play a critical role non-oil revenues will be unable to replace oil |
037c8df11eac82ac23e62d38279ce7e6561339b083fd1ccee7353fed811ea42f | Hayes and Hafstead 2020 | Plan’s popular in PA – it immediately boosts fracking.
Kristin Hayes and Dr. Marc Hafstead 20. Senior Director for Research and Policy Engagement, Resources for the Future. Fellow, Director for Carbon Pricing Initiative, Director for Climate Finance and Financial Risk Initiative, Resources for the Future; PhD, Economics, Stanford University. “Carbon Pricing 103: Effects across Sectors.” Resources for the Future. Apr. 27, 2020. https://www.rff.org/publications/explainers/carbon-pricing-103-effects-across-sectors/.
carbon price changes relative prices coal produces high emissions relative to natural gas In the short run this result in a shift from coal to natural gas |
0436cc43e009b7bca112eba6accada59ab6cd803594f79636b9a026f28d1a949 | toby ord | Disease can’t cause extinction
Ord ’20 [Dr. Toby Ord, Senior Research Fellow in Philosophy at Oxford University, DPhil in Philosophy from the University of Oxford, The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, Hachette Books, Kindle Edition, p. 124-126]
pandemic fall short of a threat to humanity biological theories suggest pathogens are unlikely to lead to extinction These include anti-correlation between infectiousness and lethality rarity of diseases that kill more than 75% tendency to become less virulent and optimal virulence In bubonic plagues civilization recover 50 percent death rate was not enough to collapse civilization is likely to make it through future events even if global |
00f9261a2f6eb0159e95ea32e5ffe5f8297b430ceceac7e4981282c99badaf78 | wars occur in upturn | There’s zero correlation between decline and war.
Laio ’19 [Jianan; 2019; Shenzhen Nanshan Foreign Language School; International Symposium on Social Science and Management Innovation, “Business Cycle and War: A Literature Review and Evaluation,” vol. 68]
scholars who discussed relationship between cycle and war failed to divide four stages war can occur at any of expansion , crisis , recession , recovery , so it is unrealistic to assume wars at any stage the resources for wars are huge for depression war has reasons in all stages origin is downward pressure which exist during recession or prosperity wars occur in upturn caused by optimism to prevail many wars take place among countries whose economies are still beginning |
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