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0177dae8a8762fe725496526c6727e7fdaa07b39167872d2dad8e1ab1c688608 | taxing fuels and power | There’s also flexibility on where to enforce the tax.
Robert Kaineg 13. Consultant with Thomson Reuters Commodities and Energy Advisory practice, focused on energy and environmental policy, M.S. in Economics. “CARBON TAXES: KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR POLICYMAKERS AND STAKEHOLDERS.” https://www.thomsonreuters.com/content/dam/openweb/documents/pdf/tr-com-financial/white-paper/carbon-taxes-key-considerations-for-policymakers-and-stakeholders.pdf
Determining commodities tax will be levied key first step Many jurisdictions mandate cost of carbon then calculate embedded GHG emissions apply surtax point of purchase taxing fuels and power specifically regulators decide segments of economy subject to the tax electricity fuels power |
00c7935aa62769bcbb573a15ac61a39a6a0ccea12af5d94f9f6f3edfec344e57 | IPCC climate inevitability | Warming inevitable is doomerism. Scientific consensus errs aff.
Damian Carrington 24. Staff Writer, The Guardian. “‘The stakes could not be higher’: world is on edge of climate abyss, UN warns.” https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/09/world-is-on-verge-of-climate-abyss-un-warns
series of leading climate figures despair voiced by scientists must be a renewed wake-up call target not yet inevitable views of 400 I P C C |
00a540ca4a6756c327fe18fc45649346f30dad1950ea7075b88465cf0b06c6ff | International trade fragile protectionism | International trade is high, but fragile. Further protectionism pushes it over the edge.
Yin Zou 24. Executive Vice President of Corporate Development, DHL Group. “The pandemic exposed fragile supply chains: Here are 3 ways to strengthen them and build on global trade.” World Economic Forum. January 2, 2024. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/01/supply-chains-global-trade/
dynamic landscape of global trade protectionism create serious headwinds an environment that allows trade to flourish not a given severe disruptions Supply chains’ ability to adapt central pillar for long-term success Global Connectedness Index refutes retreat from globalization changes in trade patterns shifting alliances influencing international trade |
03e663c47c8046c9743ecda97795633b7dd049c90929983c255aaa5e5484d27a | No energy wars | No energy wars---barriers and payoffs check.
Meierding 20 (, E. L (2020) The Oil Wars Myth [Project Muse]. Cornell University Press. https://doi.org/10.1353/book.84316. Emily Meierding is Associate Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. Her research has also examined international resource cooperation, oil prices and political instability, energy sanctions, states’ cultivation of international influence, and the linkages between climate change and armed conflict. She received her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Chicago. Before joining NPS, she taught or researched at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (Geneva, Switzerland) and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University. Her work has appeared in Security Studies, Comparative Politics, the Journal of Global Security Studies, the International Studies Review, Energy Research & Social Sciences, and Foreign Policy.)-rahulpenu
oil wars do not pay invasion occupation international and investment obstacles limits resources and revenue constrict payoffs production transportation sales and raising costs payoffs disappear entirely states reluctant to fight for oil severe militarized interstate conflicts driven by desire to obtain resources are implausible for producer s or consumer s these conflicts do not pay |
0161b82f27fc098184d2d05abb8bf6a83974b39e96457897d97eae67c006e6e0 | Solves federal lands specificity matters | Solves federal lands – specificity matters – requiring compliance rather than categorical ban avoids preemption
Biber 16 --- Eric, law prof @ Berkeley, environmental and natural resources law, administrative law, and property. Prior to joining Berkeley in 2006, he worked as a litigator in the Denver office of Earthjustice, a public-interest nonprofit organization specializing in public lands and other environmental cases. Biber taught public lands law as an adjunct faculty member at the University of Denver Sturm College of Law in fall 2005. He is a member of both the Colorado and California bars. Biber earned a master’s of environmental science with a focus in conservation biology from the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies and a J.D. from Yale Law School. Following law school, Biber clerked for Judge Carlos Lucero of the 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Denver and Judge Judith Rogers of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit., 9/20/16, http://legal-planet.org/2016/09/20/state-regulation-of-environmental-harms-on-federal-lands/
Court indicates substantial authority for states to act not preempted by federal aw key factors answering future questions about whether state environmental reg s on federal lands are preempted rules are likely to be upheld a statute is less likely to be preempted to the extent it : Regulates only particular methods or requires compliance with standards rather than banning an activity entirely Is justified based on specific environmental harms it is fairly clear new laws regulations and permits will be upheld if are challenged the law does not flatly prohibit all mining in the state it can allow mining where the mining will not impair environmental quality |
009baeafcf1a01402bca37f1ce6d7449c02201c0327e5eaec7dfeb6c65212bd7 | climate policy instruments EU | field precision
Ekins et al 17 [Paul Ekins, UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London; Paul Drummond, UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London; and Benjamin Görlach, Ecologic Institute, “Policy instruments for low-carbon development based on work from the EUFP7 project, CECILIA2050,” Climate Policy, 17(sup1), 2017, pp.S1-S7, DOI 10.1080/14693062.2016.1272044]
more important understanding the wide range of GHG abatement policies The aim of CECILIA2050 was precisely to understand climate policy instruments Although the focus was the EU , applied more widely |
02161726ec3bcf041a45dda4489a5739b33e4204a87ad7a6772e751a87c87f8e | Border adjusted tax compels | There’s momentum now. Border-adjusteded tax compels follow through.
Bistline 24
approach reliant on subsidies has received mixed response tensions unlikely to disappear CBAM drive change in other countries U.S. influences climate policy abroad through credibility in negotiations and reducing costs of low-carbon tech |
01b57a1ad2a04fc3ef958c1157d20dfb39047be69fcc46589719b185175a86b6 | Leonard 10 | Bargaining. Perm vaporizes opposition both by preempting the condition AND aligning the states with the fed.
Elizabeth Leonard 10. Professor of Law at the University of Kansas and Visiting Professor of Law at the University of Georgia, J.D. from the University of Georgia; Hofstra Law Review, “Rhetorical Federalism: The Value of State-Based Dissent to Federal Health Reform,” vol. 39
Uncoop suggests states actively refuse states should either serve as rivals or allies the affirmative case for challengers recognizes value of friction and jarring Coop by contrast , envisions working together Friction fosters dialogue accountability participation Uncoop prefers ongoing conflict sparking beneficial resistance But if states freely decline little remains while states that bargain have objections appeased |
03696049f42bcde171446b56099343876ab836f72936f7013f3b7e0ce3650196 | multilateral banks obligation to monitor | The ICJ will say: unilateral declarations that manifest intent are binding---that gets the U.S. on board.
Radavoi ’18 [Ciprian N.; Spring 2018; Lecturer in Law, University of New England, Australia, “Indirect Responsibility in Development Lending: Do Multilateral Banks Have an Obligation to Monitor Project Loans?,” 53 Tex. Int'l L.J. 1, Spring 2018]
voluntarily assumed standards by subjects of i law can be taken seriously as Unilateral Declarations binding based on good faith [W]hether the act breach treaty or rule is not relevant responsibility will result when the org does not live up to unilateral promises can bind unilaterally give rise to obligations must “[manifest] will to be bound when intention are fulfilled declarations are binding |
044b0b10b47cdbd74a4b2c6970b847e1c67597226297817e82f5a70bac007951 | beliefs conform to evidence | 1. Only empirical reflection can produce moral judgements.
Gertler 18, Provost for Academic Affairs and Commonwealth Professor in the Corcoran Department of Philosophy at the University of Virginia. (Brie, 2018, “Self-Knowledge and Rational Agency: A Defense of Empiricism,” Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, Volume XCVI, Number 1, https://doi.org/10.1111/phpr.12288)
empiricist has internalist options for epistemic position her beliefs conform to evidence this conformance derive from introspection detached have weaker evidence between beliefs and evidence empiricist can explain transparency as a way of determining believes or intends attitudes are sensitive to reasons fundamental difference between the two lie in how each reasons affect their attitudes |
03081e8e77b4acdeb88661fd5e3a0748f92d0dce2c906df092eeca2257f93430 | China retaliate immediately | Alert levels are kept exceptionally low.
Wu ’22 [Riqiang; 2022; Associate Professor of International Studies at the Renmin University of China, Ph.D. in Political Science from Tsinghua University; International Security, “Assessing China-U.S. Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation,” vol. 46 no. 2]
China’s nuclear forces are kept at low alert most of China’s warheads remain separated from boosters Upon warning PLARF’s practice is to protect rather than launch missiles close doors switch to isolated ventilation, and put on protective gear doctrine does not require China retaliate immediately By extending decision-making time demands on China’s NC3 can be significantly reduced |
0049797e4ace7e83db0b84781f0df394df3f280302a9c80b276482d841f7609e | Harrison environmental justice | 4---Environmental justice requires insider activism that tactically engages the State without reaffirming its hegemony.
Harrison et al. 24 [Jill Lindsey Harrison – Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Jonathan K. London – Department of Human Ecology/Community and Regional Development, University of California. Seeking environmental justice through the state: Insider allies in U.S. state and federal government agencies, Geoforum, Volume 155, October 2024, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718524001593, JKS]
By taking positions within allies been able to advance EJ While mindful of limitations affordances offered social movements by continuously contested and relational nature of the state tactics involve building solidarity within growing internal capacity of public agencies to administer EJ being intentional about hires, carving out positions” for advocates hiring former activists protecting decision-making autonomy change workplace culture that hinder reform efforts allies well versed in challenging foundations of the racial state improving agencies’ community engagement Many critiqued tokenism insider allies understand where practices fall short They draw on activist experiences and frustrations with the state to increase transparent flow of info Insider ally Sid, who is Native worked with allies inside settler state agencies to decriminalize traditional Tribal activities. Miles’s focus on the “historical lega of environmental racism helps press for systemic institutional change. data-driven tech direct state action to improving material conditions mapping tools like CalEnviroscreen EJSCREEN, and C E J S identify communities to guide improvements and protection scholars critiqued tech as surveillance EJ staff used tech to re-direct resources to communities excluded from public infrastructure and targeted as sacrifice zones product of EJ policy advocacy redistribute over $1.3 billion for water in disadvantaged communities allies played key roles in ensuring implementation aligns with EJ and reverse patterns of racialized disinvestment legal enforcement work resulted in a “radical shift allies have achieved important benefits for underserved communities need to identify conditions that movements foster modest yet meaningful change through the state |
03ad8eb0340993af858358b40ba90119273db3ddedfa4306287a41834f15b592 | Rejecting climate policy cedes political | Rejecting climate policy cedes the political to eco-fascists, who will use the climate crisis to normalize their own violent ‘solutions.’
Knights 20 [Sam Knights is a writer, actor, and climate activist. He is the coeditor of This Is Not a Drill: An Extinction Rebellion Handbook. 11-16-20, The Climate Movement Must Be Ready To Challenge Rising Right-Wing Environmentalism, Jacobin, https://jacobin.com/2020/11/climate-change-right-wing-environmentalism-alt-right-eco-fascism, JKS]
the Right are going to offer more “pragmatic” and “realistic” solutions , based on piecemeal and fantasy solutions. They are going to demonize climate refugees and tell us left-wing want developed countries to give up everything One of the dreadful solutions will be “population control this idea will inevitably spill into the public sphere lifeboat ethics”: The Right has managed to successfully depoliticize the climate crisis can lead to devastating consequences. violent philosophy of far-right environmentalism is slowly being normalized |
03eb75b008637df5dea17eb79a8407b6332d1ae86b1c33d683311686d2c07c25 | unchecked war powers escalate conflict | Unchecked war powers cause conflict escalation globally.
Ted Galen Carpenter 22. Senior Fellow at CATO. “Congress Is Willingly Abdicating Its War Powers Again.” 6/14/22. https://www.cato.org/commentary/congress-willingly-abdicating-its-war-powers-again
The Constitution gives Congress authority Yet the U S has launched a dozen presidential wars T he failure of Congress has been dereliction of duty Congressional attitudes could lead to dangerous entanglements Ukraine and Taiwan There is surging sentiment to replace ambiguity with clarity There is absence of willingness to rein Biden as he deepens involvement in Russia abdication of the war power has been a factor in the proliferation of ill ‐ conceived disastrous interventions |
026f4aed218d0a4497414a327cfe84b5300f57d4a64b46205c7b6fce6b2eedf1 | trade during conflict | 4. Interdependence doesn’t prevent war---countries continue to trade during conflict.
Leda Zimmerman 21, Writer, editor and communications strategist, citing a paper by Mariya Grinberg, assistant professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, “Solving puzzles of international trade, war, and order,” MIT News, 10/29/21, https://news.mit.edu/2021/solving-puzzles-international-trade-war-order-mariya-grinberg-1029
trade could be conducted during conflict States do rational things Trade is mutually beneficial , and it makes sense for both sides to keep trade going The interdependence arg relies on the idea nations don’t trade during war But that’s not how it works Given the likelihood of trading in conflict the push is not toward less war but trading during war .” trade cannot be used to prevent war , because we have too many incentives to trade during war |
00eb59d4a182164fdc96c1b9fe3a9429804d272e12595e4dd8a9f334564a44cf | US India ties fragile | Relations cooked. Reject their snapshots.
Grossman 24, senior defense analyst at RAND, adjunct professor at the University of Southern California (Derek Grossman, April 7, 2024, “U.S.-India Ties Remain Fundamentally Fragile,” RAND, https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/04/us-india-ties-remain-fundamentally-fragile.html)
India benefited from Russian oil Since Ukraine, New Delhi contravention of U.S. sanctions Thus far, Washington looked the other way however Biden changed its tune Biden sought to widen partnership with Pakistan India worries U S could be an unreliable partner |
035dd878a8e3c79e0c1e711c623450c044bbc834691a897431ed344b9f40521f | Trump budget freeze Congressional stability | Trump’s budget freeze and nominees implode Congressional stability, triggers massive controversy.
Cama and Picon 1/31 [Timothy Cama and Andres Picon are reporters for E&E News by Politico. “The fight over spending just got a lot more complicated.” 1-31-25. https://www.eenews.net/articles/the-fight-over-spending-just-got-a-lot-more-complicated/ GMU NR]
Constitutional crisis At the core of controversy is a dispute likely to play throughout Trump’s time in office whether the president can refuse money for programs he doesn’t like Trump got in trouble for impounding funds which led to his impeachment The president ran against Impoundment Control Act |
03a62c3a288791adcdb0a37174f3ecfa6ab79666ebe16b1a4485837ef599f8d0 | economic vulnerabilities build potential | Fiscal miscalibration decimates markets. That guarantees extinction, escalating global tinderboxes and ruining societal adaptation.
Ellissa Cavaciuti-Wishart et al. 24, MPhil, Head, Global Risks, World Economic Forum; Sophie Heading, MA, Lead, Global Risks, World Economic Forum; Kevin Kohler, MA, Specialist, Global Risks, World Economic Forum; Saadia Zahidi, MPhil, Managing Director, World Economic Forum, "Global Risks 2024: At a Turning Point," & "Global Risks 2034: Over the Limit," in The Global Risks Report 2024, Chapter 1 & 2, January 2024, pg. 14-39. [italics in original]
small shock edge past the tipping point inflation heightens miscalibration downturn most central risk to trigger risks Escalat key hotspots – Ukraine , Israel and Taiwan powers step in eroding guardrails long term shifts in econ fragility contribute to conflict contagion viscerally threatening the world accelerate risk of inadvertent escalation frozen conflicts heat up include Balkans , Libya Kashmir and Korea hardship fuel n s a s control accelerate anti-Western sentiment power projection fade creating power vacuums new shocks would be unmanageable in fragility and passes the tipping point risk of miscalibration potentially deepen and prolong risks global risks where economic vulnerabilities build potential to become chronic resilience chipped away leaving states vulnerable emergent risks are arising upheaval elevate risk of global catastrophe inflation is corrosive on world order. soaring costs ate away at defense budget destabilize world where there is revolutionary kindling, inflation fatal spark Europe M E triggered protests, revolt repression Inflation create a inward-looking superpower as threats intensifying. defense budget risk being strangled by “inflation anaconda.” Pentagon build down as China expand Russia threaten conflict Iran |
01f376827475428605034c2bd5dcb929b8898a0c663e2f17b6be749705eb3785 | Salvador Pueyo | Growth-oriented AI ensures extinction---but degrowth solves
Pueyo ’18 [Salvador; October 1; Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology, and Environmental Sciences, Universitat de Barcelona; Journal of Cleaner Production, “Growth, Degrowth, and the Challenge of Artificial Superintelligence,” vol. 197, pp. 1731–1736]
sustainability and superintelligence are not independent superintelligence be affected by socioeconomic context it develops Neoliberalism is a major force superintelligence aligned with capitalist markets have undesirable consequences for humanity and the biosphere Neoliberal policies are transferring decisions to markets goals are shaped by firms growth rely on earnings economic selection favor firms in which these are greater technical constraints are overcome by extreme AI goals emerge from large sets of entities subject to capitalist interaction |
0164b876a1576371b6535471cef006c9217912dbdcfc692472492aa5d34256ed | CO2 storage instead of EOR | Permanent storage is an alternative to EOR.
Serin 23, Esin Serin, Policy Fellow working on UK energy and climate policy with a particular focus on sustainable growth, economic opportunities of net zero and decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors. Esin works in collaboration with the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) and is an Associate of the Productive and Inclusive Net Zero (PRINZ) project, London School of Economics, 3-13-2023 ["What is carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS) and what role can it play in tackling climate change?," available on: https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/what-is-carbon-capture-and-storage-and-what-role-can-it-play-in-tackling-climate-change/, accessed: 10-31-2024]rrf
Usage refers to using the captured CO2 to produce c products or services EOR injects CO2 into oil and gas reservoirs to increase extraction majority of projects are for the dedicated storage rather than EOR |
01e4ce26bba7483f8ad1c3ecfa5bdf6dc5721cfa30962addff5265dbf92c413e | fuel prices like US consumption | Taxes are the most powerful tool for large-scale change.
Marshall 22, Economics Research Coordinator for Citizens’ Climate Education (Jonathan Marshall, May 6, 2022, “How Carbon Taxes Reduce CO2 Emissions in Transportation,” https://static.prod01.ue1.p.pcomm.net/cclobby/content/resources/economics/Transportation-Paper-FINAL.pdf) [[Figures omitted]]
newer empirical studies report consumers are responsive to price changes caused by taxes making consumers sensitive to what they pay taxes raise costs over long term , unlike short-term hikes they ride out taxes are the most powerful instrument Had OECD had fuel prices like US consumption would be 30% higher during Ukraine E v sales soared as traditional cars slumped reg s and subsidies do nothing to emissions from existing vehicles. fail to stimulate demand |
031c502490f90cc421a99ee972629a2385fd75c42d2021966233fe24609bb5ef | prices reduce poverty | No food wars.
Vestby et al. 18 – Jonas, Doctoral Researcher at the Peace Research Institute Oslo, Ida Rudolfsen, doctoral researcher at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University and PRIO, and Halvard Buhaug, Research Professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO); Professor of Political Science at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU); and Associate Editor of the Journal of Peace Research and Political Geography. “Does hunger cause conflict?”, https://blogs.prio.org/ClimateAndConflict/2018/05/does-hunger-cause-conflict/, 05-18-2018
little scholarly merit that a reduction food increases probability conflict break out. to start conflict requires means and will people on the brink of starvation are not in the position to resort widespread misapprehension social unrest in periods of high prices relates to shortages sources of discontent are more complex political structures , land corruption democratic reforms and economic problems A question of importance is whether results are robust to short time periods Conceivably, an ag supply response could take years Strikingly using shorter poverty episodes makes no substantial difference to the point estimates This suggests higher prices reduce poverty, even in the short run. urban poverty results from people fleeing rural deprivation many conflicts that threaten global stability have origins in extreme poverty supermarkets engage in competition by lowering prices, reducing pay to suppliers who cut workers’ pay The idea that low food prices will reduce the hunger problem is flawed since the main reason for people being hungry is that they cannot afford the food they need , even when prices are low . Rather than shielding consumers from a full price let prices rise and increase the food buying power of the poor higher prices can be passed back to all in the food production chain, They offer the best market-driven option for cutting rural poverty and hunger |
04200757af85a820fe63330ee965f47d0c2aa620022d230ef1e6679533cb29b7 | IRA transformed the economy | IRA transformed the economy. Decarbonization is happening in every industry.
Denman et al. '22 – Leader of Bain's Utilities & Renewables Practice in the Americas and is a Partner in the Chicago office (Aaron Denman, Cate Hight, and Michael Short; "The Inflation Reduction Act Is a Decarbonization Game Changer"; Bain; https://www.bain.com/insights/decarbonization-game-changer/; 10-27-2022; NC)
IRA increases amount US investing to climate change make green energy competitive globally reduce emissions footprint meet thresholds solar panels and green hydrogen listened to industry expertise Hydrogen below $1 Battery manufacture realigning supply chain Solar manufacture US become market leader $1.2 billion of investments Power generation provides tax incentives project costs 35% less Domestic manufacturing includes $37 billion decommissioning fossil fuel infrastructure repurposing infrastructure to build clean energy supply chains |
03a62c3a288791adcdb0a37174f3ecfa6ab79666ebe16b1a4485837ef599f8d0 | Ellissa Cavaciuti-Wishart | Fiscal miscalibration decimates markets. That guarantees extinction, escalating global tinderboxes and ruining societal adaptation.
Ellissa Cavaciuti-Wishart et al. 24, MPhil, Head, Global Risks, World Economic Forum; Sophie Heading, MA, Lead, Global Risks, World Economic Forum; Kevin Kohler, MA, Specialist, Global Risks, World Economic Forum; Saadia Zahidi, MPhil, Managing Director, World Economic Forum, "Global Risks 2024: At a Turning Point," & "Global Risks 2034: Over the Limit," in The Global Risks Report 2024, Chapter 1 & 2, January 2024, pg. 14-39. [italics in original]
small shock edge past the tipping point inflation heightens miscalibration downturn most central risk to trigger risks Escalat key hotspots – Ukraine , Israel and Taiwan powers step in eroding guardrails long term shifts in econ fragility contribute to conflict contagion viscerally threatening the world accelerate risk of inadvertent escalation frozen conflicts heat up include Balkans , Libya Kashmir and Korea hardship fuel n s a s control accelerate anti-Western sentiment power projection fade creating power vacuums new shocks would be unmanageable in fragility and passes the tipping point risk of miscalibration potentially deepen and prolong risks global risks where economic vulnerabilities build potential to become chronic resilience chipped away leaving states vulnerable emergent risks are arising upheaval elevate risk of global catastrophe inflation is corrosive on world order. soaring costs ate away at defense budget destabilize world where there is revolutionary kindling, inflation fatal spark Europe M E triggered protests, revolt repression Inflation create a inward-looking superpower as threats intensifying. defense budget risk being strangled by “inflation anaconda.” Pentagon build down as China expand Russia threaten conflict Iran |
0277938d1d0efd474424e168b2eb1bd3d3894c7f1dafd7d8d92d46d2132ccfd9 | Helen Meekosha | Sidelining the impact of hunger and resource deprivation is colonial scholarship that we must reject.
Meekosha 11 (Helen, School of Social Sciences and International Relations, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia “Decolonising disability: thinking and acting globally” Disability & Society, 26:6, 667-682)
to situate disability in a global context a fundamental change contemporary disability studies constitutes scholarly colonialism , and needs to be re-thought taking account of the 400 million disabled people in the global South Impaired people are ‘produced’ in violence and war that is provoked by the North , in the struggle over economic resources impairments as a result of war calls for a global perspective by disability scholars that incorporates the role of the global North making alliances for an end to global violence U S largest economy in history every person , animal , or anything that causes emissions could vanish or even die and emissions will still explode over population and economic growth of China , India , and Africa emissions from the 7.8 billion will rise degrowth impossible in the real world that leaders would persuade those in poverty to remain or convince vast majority to permanently reduce incomes would be political death To believe otherwise would be messianic faith in supernatural persuasion if Jesus could not convince everyone give up their possessions it is unlikely degrowthers will It is a contortion of reason to argue a carbon tax is infeasible but deliberate recession is not Some say we must reduce consumption! Wishful thinking will not get us out this mess 3 billion have meager electricity . They will burn oil gas , dung , or anything they can get their hands on , to produce energy Energy demand will double this century energy is only viable option for replacing fossil fuels anti-cap revolution no party has slightest chance of power could only be by a global dictator that is unrealistic Suppose growth did cease emissions would fall only 40 percent would not solve climate to achieve zero eliminate all energy But it would require reversal of all welfare devastating well-being and political stability preindustrial world was Undernourishment and starvation Over centuries , the population in destitution fell to 10 percent radical alternative is dystopian solution come only from tech that eliminates g h g s top-down control will never know what is in everybody’s head markets adjust incentives Russia turned out a more predatory state On the way millions were killed must do our best with greed the perfect eco human is a delusion |
029dbe0fa204a8e450b50204ae2e1bb224f1fd7b22d444684180d82e843ae43d | Green 21 | Fossil fuel subsidies alt cause. They muddy the plan’s price signal.
Green 21, PhD, assistant professor of political science at Case Western Reserve University. (Jessica F., “Beyond Carbon Pricing: Tax Reform is Climate Policy,” Global Policy, DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.12920)
pricing cannot establish clear market signals as long as fossil subsidies create a countervailing negative price fossil subsidies amounted to 5.2 trillion Subsidies render the average global price of carbon below zero pricing is failing on its own terms |
0173c9d47cbaed7a1181ef49f299fc981e0569a636b1692fdff27af046b986bd | RPS not carbon price | RPS is not a price on emissions.
Kayla Young et al 22. doctoral candidate in political science at Purdue University. Kayla Gurganus, doctoral candidate in Political Science & Ecological Sciences & Engineering at Purdue University. Leigh Raymond, professor of Political Science at Purdue University. “Framing market-based versus regulatory climate policies: A comparative analysis.” Review of Policy Research. 6-2022. https://doi.org/10.1111/ropr.12493
A alternative to carbon pricing is RPS Although some include a market-based element RPS policies still do not put a new price on carbon emissions the way true carbon pricing policies do |
00c33d18225af18ecb3c03034295fb68e4aba561129a822c876f3d595b1ba458 | Dr. Eric Toder | Other countries overwhelm
Dr. Eric Toder 21, PhD, Nonresident Fellow, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, Urban Institute, "A Carbon Tax Is Not the Solution to Global Climate Change," Tax Policy Center, 10/05/2021, https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/carbon-tax-not-solution-global-climate-change.
emissions are global US account for only 11 percent far below China’s 27 Even if the US cut world emissions only fall by 5 percent more than offset issue isn’t only leakage it is the amount of global emissions |
015945a7243ee8d386939b52e041ad1c6c1d83af4f9bb3cb35260b630f1888ed | Indigenous political engagement is successful | Indigenous political engagement is extremely successful because it co-opts the language of the state to strategically advance native interests while continuing to engage in movements outside the state.
Noisecat 17, 11th Hour Fellow at New America as well as a Fellow of the Type Media Center. Enrolled member of the Canim Lake Band Tsq'escen in British Columbia and a graduate of Columbia University and the University of Oxford (Julian, January 15th, “When the Indians Defeat the Cowboys,” Jacobin Magazine, https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/01/standing-rock-indigenous-american-progress)
movement to stop Dakota Access and protect water indigenous rights like never before it would be a terrible mistake to characterize the victory at Standing Rock as fleeting indigenous cousins have long been organizing , litigating , and fighting for wins like Standing Rock climate change threatens to scorch indigenous rights are essential to protecting waters Standing Rock, monumental victory seized the reins of progress , opening up new frontiers of struggle for the many Standing Rocks that lie ahead political theorists often buy into the feathers-and-failure narrative Wolfe structure not an event theory ran into reality If settler societies are structurally dependent upon the elimination of the Native, how do we explain the resurgence of that same Native How do we explain the global emergence of recognition , and land rights How do we explain Standing Rock Wolfe’s theory is a gussied-up version of the inevitable victory of Cowboys over Indians — a reworking of Victorian ideology as critical theory The indigenous story unfolding before us demands more social democracy have been beaten back by the free market consensus . Yet over these same decades, indigenous rights gained ground often-overlooked indigenous victories belongs to indigenous movements pressured states to recognize their demands the stubborn dream of indigenous resurgence endured Indian New Deal ” afforded tribes greater control the Red Power movement policies based on recognition Maori Renaissance in New Zealand and land rights movement in Australia won similar gains More often indigenous people have coopted conservative forces as agents of an indigenous agenda indigenous people moved debate and policy in directions favorable to their interests Self-determination is now the established framework through the U N D R I P these are remarkable victories condescending assumption turned out to be dead wrong . And it opened up pathways to victory indigenous people emerge as cunning political tricksters into the courts . They outsmarted and outflanked politicians by simultaneously pressuring and cozying up to them they won important and lasting concessions bit by bit provided indigenous nations with access to government as well as leverage to deliver devastating blows to carbon capitalism even if their goals take decades to achieve. Politics is a long game effective resistance is strategic even more impactful when paired with subtle and cunning forms of persuasion . This is especially essential for [indigenous peoples] The Left incorporating an indigenous platform into the next generation of radical coalitions alongside discussed forms of oppression |
00f0a785380bd28d1a8b806769ea372dd1bedf9452c2a61d08b57181d07849ec | climate monetary policy difficult | Warming causes inflation. Emissions reductions are the only way to stabilize price volatility.
Maximilian Kotz et al. 24. **Post-doctoral researcher in the Research Department for Complexity Science and member of the working group Data Based Analysis of Climate Decisions at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. **Friderike Kuik, Economist at the European Central Bank in the Prices and Costs Division. **Christiane Nickel, Deputy Director General Economics at the European Central Bank, PhD in Economics from Otto Beisheim Graduate School. “Global Warming and Heat Extremes to Enhance Inflationary Pressures.” 3/21/24.Communications & Earth Environment. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01173-x
future temperature conditions considerable climate change likely to increase inflation volatility and place persistent pressure on inflation levels empirical results find upward pressures implies short-term rises in inflation from hot periods intensity of extremes being amplified set to increase inflation volatility increasing difficulty of identifying supply shocks inflationary pressures from climate making monetary policy more difficult in absence of unprecedented adaptation persistent upward pressures on inflation have adverse effects on purchasing power climate offers opportunity to limit pressures on inflation without considerable mitigation of emissions inflation remain persistent and sizeable , even accounting for adaptation |
0255940c166737c1df3dfd2d0ad7ce145094ec80c6b86f626e5954f712401669 | Capitalism causes climate change | Capitalism is unsustainable. That enables a slew of existential societal and environmental downsides including climate change, inequality, resource wars, food insecurity, fungal pathogens, pandemics, and others. Extinction. The alternative is a planned economy. It’s mutually exclusive.
Dr. Charles Fletcher et al. 4-2, PhD, Interim Dean, School of Ocean & Earth Science & Technology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa; Dr. William J. Ripple, PhD, Professor, Ecology, Oregon State University; Michael Wilson, Associate Justice, Hawaii Supreme Court, "Earth At Risk: An Urgent Call to End the Age of Destruction and Forge a Just and Sustainable Future," PNAS Nexus, Vol. 3, pg. 1-12, 04/02/2024, OUP. //JDi [italics in original]
development ushered in converging crises : climate change disease and inequality shift must replace exploitative, wealth-oriented capital sustainability elevates well-being climate crisis underway GHG set a new record heat waves wildfires megadrought and ecosystem pushed to its breaking investment in clean energy lead to more coal nat gas , an oil than is compatible with limiting heating prioritizes resource extraction influencing trade , politic s , and econ frameworks reliance on extractive practices result is catastrophic threatens biodiversity loss disease values must protect well-being fallout catastrophic more than twice fossil fuels 1.5°C pledges not credible emissions are underreported decreasing storage biophysical instability abrupt destabilizing change including ecosystems systems pillars of life tip” into irreversible productivity through breeding , monocultures , fertilizers and pesticides not solved food insecurity which has been aggravated while spreading diseases depletes soil fertilizer-related emissions projected to grow renewable energy will not address the problem Policies are needed that replace the extractive model with one that emphasizes sustainability to prevent catastrophic heating requires a shift in economic structures must shift from wealth to sustainability as a goal |
0453c220b0afb904bb6fa0d5a16e51aa5df13d626bbba0549bddd337b13440a3 | closed economies of domination | Instead of a restrictive economy, we think generally. ‘Solutions’ that follow status quo temporal registers of calculating and charting “effective” courses are conditioned inside of circuits of violence.
Shannon Winnubst 6. [Professor of Philosophy at Southwestern University. “Introduction: The Seduction of Freedom.” Queering freedom. 2006. P5-6. ISBN: 0-253-21830-6]//dawn
thinking conditioned only with in closed economies, violence and politics are racialized Race functions as a category and racism is the system if systems are not reducible to closed economies need to reorient to different thinking that excavate closed economies of domination cannot conceive of any problem without reducing it to narrow reason This renders us captive to presuppositions which assume that solutions must follow the same temporal register resistance comes through freeing ourselves from closed economies and demarcated useful ends if we do not think in this general economy we will be subordinated to the catastrophic expressions of excess We have a choice not from calculating it will not derive from reason It may involve recuperating senses of freedom To think generally sens freedom as "a dangerous breaking loose |
03fbf798bd173885c1a11af466c05cc3523c66ccdbe67423291df78c7f393411 | CO2 increase plant growth 40 | C02 solves food insecurity.
CO2 Coalition 15 [This white paper summarizes the views of the CO2 Coalition, a new and independent, non-profit organization that seeks to engage thought leaders, policy makers, and the public in an informed, dispassionate discussion of how our planet will be affected by CO2 released from the combustion of fossil fuel. Available scientific facts have persuaded Coalition members that additional CO2 will be a net benefit. Rather than immediately setting this document aside for promoting such a politically incorrect view, readers would do well to act on the ancient motto of Britain’s prestigious Royal Society—nullius in verba, “don’t take anyone’s word for it,” or more simply, “see for yourself.”] . “Carbon Dioxide Benefits the World: See for Yourself.” CO2 Coalition, 2015, https://www.commerce.senate.gov/services/files/FC7C4946-11A3-4967-BF28-8D0386608D3E#:~:text=Because%20the%20growth%20rate%20of,thus%2C%20for%20global%20food%20security.) tru
growth rate plants proportional square root of CO2 concentration doubling CO2 increase plant growth by 40 percent a boon for global food security making plants drought-resistant 30% increase in 20th century boosted productivity by 15 percent higher CO2 levels will strengthen food in Africa and Asia plant growth at desert margins 11 percent net agricultural yields will increase 10 catastrophic risks Food failures |
00a247dab04ffb2b7f8537bdff8e1d7d722936f943503c9499725bb4b9605c53 | US standards nonproliferation | That’s key to maintain international non-prolif norms and break Russian dominance.
Ahn et. al 23 – Alan Ahn, Deputy Director for Nuclear for Third Way’s Climate and Energy Program, Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy (MALD) from Tufts University; Josh Freed, led Third Way’s clean energy and climate advocacy efforts; Ryan Norman, Policy Advisor for Third Way's Climate and Energy Program; Rowen Price, Policy Advisor for Nuclear Energy at Third Wave, 11/7/23, “Nuclear Fuel is a National Security Imperative”, https://www.thirdway.org/memo/nuclear-fuel-is-a-national-security-imperative
Building out nuclear fuel infrastructure is pressing given dependence on Russia uranium increase nuclear security and proliferation risks. Strengthening confidence serves as a linchpin to US policies in countering spread buildout meet not only domestic needs but also allies exports generate revenue and mitigating proliferation risks international presence essential so we set highest standards on nonproliferation new and emerging competitors offering technologies outside export controls meaning transactions do not require licenses bilateral cooperation etc Russia weaponizing exports to project influence Building out capacity important step leverage highest global standards for nonproliferation Without nuclear fuel collapse |
04106f0f167a2a12a9cd3e4df6c4ba0a45232c167a00b4f5e379f55e606895c3 | rule of law and economic freedom | Independently, you must vote aff on ethics – status quo taxation violates citizen property rights
Gwartney, James, et al, 2023, (Fraser Institute, The Fraser Institute conducts and publishes studies on various economic and social issues, such as central bank policy, education, health care, and environmental regulation. A libertarian-conservative Canadian public policy think tank and registered charity) “Economic Freedom of the World 2023 Annual Report https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/economic-freedom-of-the-world-2023.pdf ~ [SAT99 Sep. 2024]
a government of large size that requires higher taxation to fund, depriving citizens of their property and capital for investment, or running state enterprises that compete with the private sector, or offering subsidies in favor of certain enterprises against others in the market which takes away from citizens in favor of other entities state institutions can be abused to limit economic freedom. This can come about through over-regulation tax regimes that ake away the fruits of people’s labor, , How a state ranks on the rule of law is critical to economic freedom justice and the protection of tangible and intellectual property rights. |
03fc6551ce833888558146ab40db4d9157b03c4d40f09885a5918434735442bd | Americans want carbon tax | The campaign effect outweighs positive polling.
Ioana Marinescu 20. Associate professor at the University of Pennsylvania School of Social Policy & Practice, and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Interview with Andy Stone. "Why Americans Want a Carbon Tax, But Won’t Support One at the Polls." Kleinman Center for Energy Policy. 5-26-2020. https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/podcast/why-americans-want-a-carbon-tax-but-wont-support-one-at-the-polls/
public support can fall when brought directly as a ballot initiative polls nationally say they want the carbon tax the “ campaign effect hearing counter-arguments could have a negative outcome distinction between people say in a survey people come in with intent to support a carbon tax people hear counterarguments by opposition creates a vulnerability going into the election |
00b0a69ce023f553826cd47e5aa1f7ce0d476fabd87bdaa9a526d232cba48d51 | Russia China conflict nuclear | That goes nuclear.
Saradzhyan 10 (Simon Saradzhyan, Director, Russia Matters Projec @ the Belfer Center, 5-4-2010, "The Role of China in Russia’s Military Thinking," Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/role-china-russias-military-thinking, accessed 2-17-2024)
Should conflict between Russia and China break out Russia has gamed out a limited nuclear strike to prevent foe from overwhelming forces Russian generals developed plans for in the East Russian generals will demonstrate re solve actually increase the risk prompt Beijing to respond by launching ICBMs out of con cern |
030e10be38cfbfc727a52781facaffd339f1347c81f47f24ba62717840120ab3 | CPU shock negative supply | Otherwise, climate policy uncertainty makes decline inevitable
Huang ’24 [Bihong and Maria Teresa Punzi; June; Economist at the International Monetary Fund, PhD in applied economics; Senior Research Fellow at the Singapore Green Finance Centre at the Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics, Singapore Management University, PhD in Economics; Journal of Climate Finance, “Macroeconomic impact of environmental policy uncertainty and monetary policy implications,” Vol. 7]
c p u shock acts as negative supply shock with both inflationary and recessionary impact diminishes social welfare defers investment resulting in job cuts , lower GDP and reduced consumption indices exhibit increased fluctuations CPU acts as a negative supply shock uncertainty associated with decline in investment Physical investment decline induces a fall in employment , consumption and out- put cause higher inflation uncertainty lowers welfare , compared to carbon tax reduce cost for the society firm and clear policy reduce uncertainty |
03d8f6e7c1154f43d9dd61c225f31e867e00d9244d063777716f3cecd72a86b5 | Firms depend on energy costs | Firms depend on energy costs for expectations.
Hensel ’24 [Jannik, Giacomo Mangiante, Luca Moretti; April; PhD in Economics University of Zurich; Research Fellow at the Central Bank of Italy, PhD in Economics, University of Lausanne; PhD in Economics, University of Zurich; Journal of Monetary Economics, “Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: Evidence from France,” vol. 147]
carbon shock triggers sizable increase in firms’ expectations persistence observed is higher Energy costs particularly salient so they rely on them to form expectations about future aggregate prices |
016cccd56de1672f3d66ebd258d1ee6d0752a6633d3e727ec5628a4f5337e614 | abolitionism relies on violent historiography | The 1ACs calls for abolition reify carceral institutions---vote NEG to reject it.
Patrick Teed ‘23, PhD candidate in York University’s Graduate Program in Social and Political Thought, “Whiter Abolition?”, Differences, Volume 34, Number 2, doi:10.1215/10407391-10713805, September 2023, DMurph
abolition became a household provocation mainstream ideas signaling an engagement with abolition were as conceptually incoherent they unimaginative explicitly reactionary abolition functions as a semantic repository for a competing field of desires and political orientations, rather than naming a “radical recon - figuration of justice, the carceral state abolition has become synonymous with extension of carceral power contemporary abolitionism relies upon a violent historiography that only subtends historiographical engagements with slavery but also structures the conditions of possibility mobilizations of abolition operate through disavowal of slavery’s ongoingness insistence on and focalization reveals political-libidinal investments in the reproduction of antiblackness repeating the ruse of emancipation while deploying slavery’s idiom to animate a contemporary postracial politics |
02bfb97963b9c09cdd36b5aba7a344dafc28e1eef545d5f7e66cb889733317c2 | clean energy CO2 bump | 2---Co2 Bump and Global Development.
Max Ajl 21, associated researcher with the Tunisian Observatory for Food Sovereignty and the Environment and a postdoctoral fellow with the Rural Sociology Group at Wageningen University, 2021, “A People’s Green New Deal,” Pluto Press
A huge problem the CO2 “bump” in transition: building renewable infrastructure require energy that cannot come from renewables The more clean energy the larger the bump the goal should be reducing energy use in the core peripheral states receive renewable grants via climate debt or build out polluting infrastructure |
02817b6a5c82eb3632f81efe2190b0a69767a26ce1ad164dfd3373d1f7c4fe65 | planned contraction of economic activity | MBIs are ineffective and lock in capitalist growth. The alternative is democratic socialism.
Schmelzer ’23 [Matthias and Elena Hofferberth; July 1; Professor for Social-Ecological Transformation Research and head of the Norbert Elias Center at the University of Flensburg; Postdoctoral Researcher at University of Lausanne, PhD in Economics from the University of Leeds; Monthly Review, “Democratic Planning for Degrowth,” https://monthlyreview.org/2023/07/01/democratic-planning-for-degrowth/]
transition necessary green growth unlikely to avoid collapse need to abandon growth and scale down production need a planned contraction of economic activity ecosocialist degrowth founded on a solid critique of market instruments reliance on price and private-sector ineffective market led us into mess Degrowth an alternative to capitalist market democratization of economy and self-limitation drive to accumulation prevents adherence to collective rules Degrowth resisting law of the market mantra of growth Degrowth build on ongoing planning there is a resurgence in planning postcapitalist project converge around non-market institutions downscaling production phasing out sectors resource-uses no longer left to market |
029398519eacbaeaac05ce44c17ed788aeafe9feabf2b30eae4f142b3c1e5876 | John Thomason 22 | Climate change turns alt solvency.
John Thomason 22. Articles Editor at Grist. BA in English from Pomona College. "Olúfémi O. Táíwò's theory of everything". Grist. 6-21-2022. https://grist.org/culture/olufemi-taiwo-climate-change-reparations-justice/
climate change disproportionate effects on populations for whom the legacies of colonialism and the slave trade loom the largest millions of Bangladeshis displaced unique vulnerability of the African continent each degree of warming seemed to undermine any reparations project Are any other measures toward racial justice going to have staying power in a world 3 degrees hotter where there is rampant instability in our energy and housing systems of mass displacement oppose moralizing If political purity gets in the way of improving actual life experience it has no place in justice. decarbonization is the most immediate priority Every degree of warming puts a just world out of reach |
00ee30d0ca033c36d33daa4f04d617b85b71b380a60ef3129401c258c6677a4d | lower court decision law | they deny cert
Johnson et al 17 [Ben Johnson, PhD candidate, Politics, Princeton University, JD Yale Law School; and Keith E. Whittington, Professor of Politics, Princeton University; “Why Does the Supreme Court Uphold so Many Laws?” University of Illinois Law Review, forthcoming, written 5-6-2017, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2970868]
When lower court strikes and the Supreme Court agrees all they have to do is deny cert and leave the lower court’s decision as the law |
00eaf79851c3c3c467ce5a385c1641824fe90795e640b715bf4154de1818c665 | air quality RPS | RPS is net-pollution reducing.
Ryan Wiser et al. 16. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. With Galen Barbose, Jenny Heeter, Trieu Mai, Lori Bird, Mark Bolinger, Alberta Carpenter, Garvin Heath, David Keyser, Jordan Macknick, Andrew Mills, and Dev Millstein. A Retrospective Analysis of the Benefits and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2016, NREL/TP-6A20-65005. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65005.pdf. Accessed 3 August 2024
RPS reduced emissions of SO2 NOx and PM2.5 to 2% of corresponding power emissions reductions are concentrated in the most aggressive standards states with biomass serving compliance had small increases emission increases do not lead to increases in total pollutant or health damages reductions in other emissions counteract emissions reductions improved air and health outcom benefits are net of emissions from biomass health benefits are dominated by SO2 reductions |
03ea0a57fc104a6e7e997a27b063c2b80437b0c577db5c16c70e5fa8bf97109a | private sector non-innovative | 2—The internet, vaccines, and military all prove—the private sector is risk-averse and rent-seeking.
Jeuk & Spang 22 (Alexander Jeuk, Magister in Philosophy, Sociology, Psychology from Goethe University, PhD in Philosophy from the University of Cincinnati; Friderike Spang, SNSF Senior Researcher, Faculty of Law, Criminal Justice and Public Administration, PhD in Political Science from the University of Western Ontario. “Analytic Marxism and Economic Feasibility. A Defense of Central Planning.” OSF Preprints, 22 August 2022, pp. 27-35. DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/uygvw)
claims that planned economies fail to innovate are not persuasive innovative success in the US or Germany rests on systems of innovation governments created institutions but also recruited workers they also fostered demand the US created their own semi-conductor industry governments finance plan and operate innovation foundations for developing the internet were financed and planned by government agencies Private firms asked to contribute refused considering involvement a ‘ threat to business ’ companies like Apple invest little in R&D and instead patent tech that stems from military or NSF research private sector is non-innovative , because it does not engage in long-term research , is risk-aversive , and rent-seeking pharma companies patent research done in the public sector USSR invested 4% of its GDP into r and d yet 70% was military and space separated from other sectors knowledge could not be diffused evidence strongly suggests large scale industrial innovation in the last three centuries was strongly supported by central planning |
0221316eaa33c1351c04dd8d08a93d2714263be84196d3a08f13b9abac010c86 | Conger 24 | 1. LOW-CARBON MILITARY---it’s faster, stealthier, and more flexible---warfighting caps Chinese aggression and Arctic conflicts, solves disasters, Middle Eastern and African instability, and terrorism.
John Conger 24, Director Emeritus of the Center for Climate and Security, Senior Advisor to the Council on Strategic Risks, and Senior US Advisor to the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS), July 2024, “World Climate And Security Report 2024: Military Innovation And The Climate Challenge,” https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/WCSR-2023-24.pdf
There are vulnerabilities with fossil fuel dependence fuel convoys can be sabotaged , leading to reduced supply , also allocation of personnel for protecting transitioning to low-carbon sources reduces the reliance on complex supply chains increase stealth of platforms and reduce need for support s n r s maximize stealth compared to diesel electric propulsion reduces noise boosting flex minimizing refueling Electric motors over combustion enhance range and traction. Swarming increases remote warfare smaller vehicles allows for low-carbon propulsion AI reduces human interaction , which can be advantageous for military readiness . info war is exacerbated by blaming militaries for disasters . China, India, Russia, and the U S test a sat s Satellite can contribute to early warning satellites that used with iodine aid cost and sustainability China has been advancing in the S and E C S chances of military op grow HED vessels reduce maintenance and increase stealth The Arctic brings military conflicts. Melting ice caps lead to erosion also geopolitical shift as Russia gain access to both oceans Op s in the Arctic can be managed with mobile microgrids disasters complicate readiness tasking personnel to assist with HADR strain resources planning and training low-carbon tech improve acceptance of NATO HADR in the Mid East, Sahel and Africa groups engage in illegal activities individuals join NSAGs Boko Haram al-Shabab and ISIS Using e v s can support NATO op s in contested environments |
036a226a2cdb1a9006cdcf018eecb6f8d1ac87beb26f51b79ad27788f02c70a8 | US climate leader | IRA solved the advantage – the carrot approach put the us into the limelight.
John Siciliano 24 (holds a Master of Science in Education from Franciscan University of Steubenville. He writes for S&P global with a focus on international and scientific events. “IRA Could Spur Trillions in Spending, Unseat Europe as Climate Leader – Analysts.” Spglobal.com, 25 Jan. 2024, www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/ira-could-spur-trillions-in-spending-unseat-europe-as-climate-leader-8211-analysts-80144847. Accessed 24 July 2024.)Rinehart.
US is assuming the role of global climate leader with passage of the I R A analysts said the "carrot" approach pushed US into global limelight as climate leader IRA places the US as leader in tightening clean energy supply chains projects 800 billion will be spent spending projection up with private sector investment swelling to over $3 trillion this dynamic will force to harmonize with US policies |
00ecc1155ba6970864f8d3e97b4dd08a65d116a93cc9b9c714bba315f5299d01 | nuclear disarmament cheating | States won’t reciprocate because they’ll fear cheating or rearmament.
Glaser 19, PhD, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs @ GW. (Charles L. Glaser, 2019, “Was nuclear disarmament ever alive?” in Nuclear Disarmament: A Critical Assessment, pg. 27-29)
The problem with disarm is cheating A state without nuc s could be at a huge disadvantage states would need to be confident the opposing state was giving up all of its nuc s and fissile material states face a 5 percent uncertainty in their own production of fissile which would translate to 5,000 nuc s a state would also have to be confident a rearm race would not leave it at a disadvantage states would have to have equal rearm rates these requirements promises to be exceedingly difficult States would have to coordinate nuclear energy allow unlimited inspection and limit conventional forces These barriers explain why major powers have never come close to giving up nuc s |
046c89f6c74c66c353c790808f4dadbbc2ed4f26fb8899d7881b142e27eace42 | Lipsky 24 | Trump causes trade wars.
Lipsky 24, [Josh Lipsky is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. He previously served as an advisor at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Speechwriter to Christine Lagarde. Prior to joining the IMF, Josh was an appointee at the State Department, serving as Special Advisor to the Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy. Before joining the State Department, Josh worked in the White House and was tasked with helping plan President Obama’s participation at the G-20, G-7, and other global summits. He has also worked on Capitol Hill and at the Daily Show with Jon Stewart. He is a term-member at the Council on Foreign Relations and an Economic Diplomacy Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. In these roles he has advised policymakers on a range of emerging challenges to the global economy, including trade wars, the reform of the Bretton Woods system, and the rise of digital currencies. His analysis, writing, and commentary have been featured in the New York Times, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, Bloomberg, and CNBC, among others. Josh is a licensed attorney, accredited to practice in Maryland and Washington, D.C. He holds a J.D. from Georgetown University Law School, a Master’s degree from the Harvard Kennedy School, and a B.A. from Columbia University. Josh, his wife Leah, and their daughters Clara and Hannah, live in Maryland. “The Trump trade wars are coming back. Here’s what to expect this time.” November 13, 2024. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-trump-trade-wars-are-coming-back-heres-what-to-expect-this-time/]//KAK
Trump will follow through on promise to impose tariffs IMF put together model showing ripple effects from just small dispute cost the econ upward of $700 billion Trump means what he says his return signals the U S is headed toward another trade conflict this time it won’t be limited to China. Trump’s belief in tariffs deeply rooted not simply a tactic executive authority is expansive |
0177dae8a8762fe725496526c6727e7fdaa07b39167872d2dad8e1ab1c688608 | Robert Kaineg 13 | There’s also flexibility on where to enforce the tax.
Robert Kaineg 13. Consultant with Thomson Reuters Commodities and Energy Advisory practice, focused on energy and environmental policy, M.S. in Economics. “CARBON TAXES: KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR POLICYMAKERS AND STAKEHOLDERS.” https://www.thomsonreuters.com/content/dam/openweb/documents/pdf/tr-com-financial/white-paper/carbon-taxes-key-considerations-for-policymakers-and-stakeholders.pdf
Determining commodities tax will be levied key first step Many jurisdictions mandate cost of carbon then calculate embedded GHG emissions apply surtax point of purchase taxing fuels and power specifically regulators decide segments of economy subject to the tax electricity fuels power |
046b68d26171a593e311371984829bb6ee236afc6a6db617a4467642d1870dbe | Albert 2020 | Rogue bioterrorism and synthetic biology.
Albert ’20 [Michael J.; April 17; Lecturer in International Relations working at the intersection of IR and political theory, critical political economy, and the transdisciplinary study of socio-ecological systems; Global Policy, “The Dangers of Decoupling: Earth System Crisis and the ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’,” Vol. 11, Issue 2, p. 245–254]
synthetic biology is expected to produce viruses convergent capabilities enable breakthroughs in bioweaponization improving delivery CRIPSR expands capacities of biohackers technology becomes a key engine of growth |
0436cc43e009b7bca112eba6accada59ab6cd803594f79636b9a026f28d1a949 | disease extinction unlikely | Disease can’t cause extinction
Ord ’20 [Dr. Toby Ord, Senior Research Fellow in Philosophy at Oxford University, DPhil in Philosophy from the University of Oxford, The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, Hachette Books, Kindle Edition, p. 124-126]
pandemic fall short of a threat to humanity biological theories suggest pathogens are unlikely to lead to extinction These include anti-correlation between infectiousness and lethality rarity of diseases that kill more than 75% tendency to become less virulent and optimal virulence In bubonic plagues civilization recover 50 percent death rate was not enough to collapse civilization is likely to make it through future events even if global |
00a14ceb4fb1be0f15822d87237cceae502118732fa421ef7dbfe012bc42085d | Trumper tariff roulette | Trumper.
Lucy Raitano et al. 2/7 (is a reporter for Reuters, writing with Alun John and Dhara Ranasinghe in London, Greta Rosen Fondahn in Gdansk and Rodrigo Campos in New York.; Reuters. “Trump’s Tariff Roulette: The Markets Left Reeling from Trade Threats.” Reuters, 7 Feb. 2025, www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-trump-tariffs-2025-02-07/. Accessed 9 Feb. 2025.)Rinehart.
Trump swiftly impose then delay tariffs on top trading partners show global trade war that hurts growth and fuels inflation remains high uncertainty keeping Canada on rate-cutting path Mexican economy fall into recession euro fall Central Bank will cut rates Europe big loser in U.S.-China trade war Chinese goodss in Europe add disinflationary pressure The fossil industry and polluters are set against tariffs But this is selfish and should be disregarded that tariffs are protectionist does not hold water carbon tariffs level the playing field , do not function like protectionist measures under W T O rules they are legal import s “shall not be subject to taxes in excess of domestic products if a country has domestic tax it is permitted to apply the same |
01f41aa67c09f77bcd9250f42057d041d573353f1cafe2c97ea128b2258ca412 | taxation and decarbonization | Decarbonization requires “putting a price” on a resource that used to be free
Jean Pisani-Ferry 21, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (Jean, “Climate Policy is Macroeconomic Policy, and the Implications Will Be Significant,” https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/documents/pb21-20.pdf)
decarbonization amounts to putting a price on a resource that used to be free through taxation or regulation |
04021a0ff80516e35b31809c1e1a8f5111040382b4808c13995fb963ea0ea6eb | public lands climate change solutions | US public lands are key to global biodiversity.
Raus 19, B.A., Journalism, Pontifical Catholic University, M.A., Liberal Arts, Johns Hopkins University, Digital Content Producer, Energy & Climate. (Carla, August 26th, “How do we tackle climate change? Look no further than public lands”, The Wilderness Society, https://www.wilderness.org/articles/blog/how-do-we-tackle-climate-change-look-no-further-public-lands)
Land all over world degrading pushing important systems past capacity to adapt threatening Earth’s biod lands powerful asset don’t mean faraway lands public lands important as the world searches for solutions play a vital role essential to help species being hit the hardest moose bears and birds adapt to new reality susceptible to fires and weather resistance provides clues about what it takes to survive help preserve important plants and species one of the world’s great centers of biod over 10,000 species spans ten million acres vast landscape allows species to find safe refuge |
036400680a51cf8597317c103bf0e22f92bf59dbf11ed97be76c81e54c230b86 | ableist perspective | These phrases entrench ableism
Schalk 13 Sami Schalk - MFA in Creative Writing (Poetry) from University of Notre Dame and PhD in Gender Studies from Indiana University. Was affiliated w. The Department of Gender Studies, Indiana University at the time of this writing – now is an Assistant Prof at UW-Madison.– “Ableist Metaphors in Feminist Writing” - Disability Studies Quarterly 33(4) – September 2013 - #E&F - https://dsq-sds.org/article/view/3874/3410)
an ableist perspective undergirds explanations insofar as they assume all bodies have certain physical/cognitive/sensory experiences and that people generally use related metaphorical expressions that correspond to these experiences in text, able bodies take precedence through assumption that all bodies can hear in normative ways nondisabled experiences are considered the universal grounding despite the fact that not even all people who see hear, speak, and walk perform and experience these actions in same way, especially given that these actions are in many ways conditioned by factors such as gender, age, and body size |
02c99301fac9f6b485e4cad8d34c3cf26003eb791fd14007265edec08b27ab6f | trade prevents conflict | No impact---dyadic trade dependence checks.
Chen 21 (F. R. (2021) 'Extended Dependence: Trade, Alliances, and Peace,' The Journal of Politics, 32(1). https://doi.org/10.1086/709149. Frederick R. Chen is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Ohio State University. Chen's research focuses on how economics and security interact to influence international relations, with a particular emphasis on domestic political mechanisms.Chen holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Wisconsin– Madison (2022), an M.A. in International Relations from Peking University (2016), and a B.A. in International Politics from Tsinghua University (2013). Prior to joining Ohio State,Chen was an Assistant Professor in the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, and a Pre-doctoral Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University.)-rahulpenu
Using data cover 1951–2010 states less likely to initiate conflict when they are economically dependent on allies of the potential target dyadic trade dependence predict possibility of interstate conflict initiation scholars painted inaccurate picture third parties impose economic costs on belligerents international security institutions lead to peace Extended Dependence logic since states avoid economic costs of conflict commercial ties provide strong incentives to prevent conflict greater concentration of trade outside the dyad associated with reduced risk of interstate conflict past studies overlook states bear costs of conflict from states outside the dyad |
0039efe24e1439a203ce762cba1fa30ab590a224045aac18ee32c810100e6d92 | And widespread | And widespread
Li 24 [Marie Li, High Meadows Climate Risk Fellow at the Environmental Defense Fund, “Investors, bipartisan former officials, others defend SEC climate risk disclosure rule,” Environmental Defense Fund, 8-22-2024, https://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2024/08/22/investors-bipartisan-former-officials-others-defend-sec-climate-risk-disclosure-rule/]
SEC’s rule has widespread support from a diverse array of stakeholders EDF A F R Sierra Club and NRDC Major institutional investors just a small subset of broad investor support States and policymakers support Members of Congress A bipartisan group of former officials and leading law, finance, and economic scholars public interest organizations and sustainable business coalitions Together show there is widespread support |
000c3c16b7215ce56bc31814a692912b0e052587a32a786ab24810af82a8e52c | Biden expects Harris support | 8---And he’ll explicitly tie Harris to it.
Peter Lucas 24. Columnist at the Boston Herald. "Lucas: Kamala Harris’ biggest problem is being tied to Biden." Boston Herald. 8-19-2024. https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/08/19/lucas-kamala-harris-biggest-problem-is-being-tied-to-biden/
Harris’ problem tied to Biden’s economic policies distance is easier said than done , especially as Harris supported all of the policies the White House won’t let her off easy Biden expects Harris to stand by him distancing would a slick Obama to pull that off. And Harris is no Obama Jean-Pierre said there was “ no daylight Harris has been an integral architect and executor of the Biden admin |
030c8cf75971c4ac29ace0afbcd9e101ed28b5de778ea21ddf3100b1fd80c244 | USFG should means fiat | “USFG should” means the aff has the burden of defending hypothetical government action, AKA fiat.
Ericson 3 (Jon M., Dean Emeritus of the College of Liberal Arts – California Polytechnic U., et al., The Debater’s Guide, Third Edition, p. 4)
in The U S should The verb means to put a policy into action though governmental means The entire debate is about whether something ought to occur What you agree to do when you accept the affirmative side is to offer sufficient and compelling reasons for an audience to perform the future action humility , is understanding limits of our knowledge to engage in change-making , important to understand contradictions of our ways of knowing so we can engage without trying to project delusions we can’t create different system people want results straight away This is a replacement of securities that were promised by the other system We end up reproducing old system whether we like or not what we need is experimentation failure becomes fertilizer for something else in terms of learning it generates if you think this is a process from A to B you’re going to be frustrated if you understand there’s no end , and that the process is what you’re looking for joy that comes out then we are in very different footing to tackle crisis thinking about change vis-à-vis those who are next opens a different approach shift focus of our learning from outcomes to process helping journey rather than trying to replace securities with same securities disguised as something else if we shift our ontological reality this open up possibilities are unimaginable at moment |
00da0edbc9a4ec57438e863a9fa204c0d1f24367a67b76861cfa384b5968a977 | Adam Clark Estes Vox | High electricity prices now are caused by overreliance in fossil fuel and existing infrastructure. Accelerating the shift to renewables solves.
Estes 24. [Adam Clark, Senior technology correspondent @ Vox, previously technology and politics at Gizmodo, Vice, and The Atlantic. BA History and Literature from Harvard. "The hidden reason why your power bill is so high", Vox, 8-15-2024, https://www.vox.com/technology/366885/utility-power-bill-price-clean-energy]
Energy prices have been creeping up for over a decade There’s no single reason why the transition is not the driving force utilities are doubling down on fossil fuel The grid is a messy patchwork governed by a complex web of regulations by updating regulations and investing in clean energy, we can keep prices down for decades cost has outpaced the c p i Volatility in natural gas prices following invasion contributed to price increases What utilities don’t seem to be doing, is expanding the grid in a way that would benefit clean energy producers Investments cover upgrades rather than installing transmission that renewable energy sources need states leading the way to clean energy are seeing lower energy prices climate change taking a toll on the grid |
032291ddfa1328796da4c1cae64b2f1d612b93120c395b2f5ea7fa89b73594ee | Yan et al 23 | Properly designed carbon tax is the only way to substantially reduce emissions while promoting fiscal sustainability---ETS trades-off with the economy.
Yan et. al 23, (Keija Yan – GRA Fellowship of Chemistry at the University of Alberta, Rakesh Gupta – PhD & Department Chair of Economics at U Brisbane, Suneel Maheshwari – Accounting Professor & Chairperson at Indiana University, 6-30-2023, Using Carbon Tax to Reach the U.S.’s 2050 NDCs Goals—A CGE Model of Firms, Government, and Households, MDPI, https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/7/317)//CHale
there is great uncertainty about environmental policy the U. S. provides a framework to achieve NDC in 2025 issuing a dynamic carbon tax . long-run carbon tax keeping in equilibrium tax costs of labour energy and carbon and higher employment and GDP using a 2 layer model benefits on a country’s economic cycle governments earn revenue stimulate the economy increasing public wealth increase GDP as CO2 is reduced help reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio carbon tax help improve efficiency of the tax system reduce costly regulatory measures USD 73 raise 3 trillion ETS decrease the profit of firms significant negative effect on return-on-capital material costs increased ETS reduce market competitiveness create a decline in employment |
034f7ba8aa8f62d93a53fbad34b574b49f5264ece2f75527f23c33871d9d74cd | taxes on capital and income | It'd generate revenue through a hybrid tax swap, rebate, and green spending program.
Split is likely 10% in direct rebates for the lowest income groups, 40% in tax swaps, and 50% in green spending.
a hybrid approach of a carbon-for-capital tax swap plus rebates balance efficiency and equity remaining revenues financ green development or fund energy efficiency programs Taxes on capital and income distort the economy Reducing those would mitigate the economic impact of carbon pricing increase GDP the regressivity of tax swaps overstated. lowering corporate tax rates would result in a progressive distribution lawmakers for political reasons are likely to merge approaches a capital tax reduction that diverts roughly 10 percent of revenue toward rebates neutraliz impact on those households . |
007229287a31a2c06623ff0a1275778c801f6492b40263a8b61d2d0ccbc96d25 | courts adopt policy | Courts may adopt public policy in the absence of legislative action
Keller 18 – Justice of the Kentucky Supreme Court, former Judge on the Kentucky Court of Appeals. Chairwoman Emeritus of the Kentucky Personnel Board. J.D. from Northern Kentucky University’s Chase College of Law.
when organs of public policy are silent courts may adopt policy |
041cec67949c366125653b1eea0beeddac565417dbce769b10e79895c9d902ac | China upending Westphalia war | Chinese influence destroys the LIO---extinction through multilateral breakdown AND great-power war.
Wang ’19 [Fei-Ling; October 24; Professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania; The Cipher Brief, “The China Order: A Challenge for the U.S. and the World,” https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/the-china-order-a-challenge-for-the-u-s-and-the-world]
the P R C challenge U S primacy to replace the international order and security PRC seeks an overhaul of nation-states governance address climate inequality , epidemics , and terrorism China at odds with the LIO consolidation is anchored in belief that failing would spell extinction rise upending Westphalia and redirect civilization the U S will face war and w m d the power will not stop unseating the world , unless checked America’s position and peace rest on PRC |
0359ab6f5655888fd221cd83bd8a843309c170ba06167379a94da11af941ea30 | Causes follow on | Causes follow on and avoids politics.
Cooper ’21 [Charlie; 2021; President of Get Money Out Maryland and Retired Human Services Administrator; Get Money Out Maryland, “A Convention of States is Wise and Safe,” https://www.getmoneyoutmd.org/peoples_convention]
Constitution provides a path through states a convention ratified by three-quarters particularly if Congress proved unwilling When that was one state shy of the convention Congress reacted by amendment the " prodding effect ." could work today Opponents fear a " runaway " Article V can be for limited purposes "Congress decline amendments outside scope |
02d1bb6f0c6de0a28a8c8aef9593a75523fc6446ffa3baecbf3e06e7c8a401a1 | Miller data scientist | Their ev fundamentally misunderstands how betting odds and voting probabilities work, Georgetown reads green
Shawn 2AC Tully 9/18, senior editor at Fortune, 18 September 2024, “Could there be a Kamala Harris landslide in November? The data scientist who correctly called the last election is betting yes,” Fortune, https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/trump-vs-harris-election-odds-who-will-win/.
Miller , a data scientist at Northwestern using a system to handicap the supposedly super-tight election based on numbers-crunching that’s a lot more scientific than surveys he achieved pinpoint accuracy four years ago Which candidate do you expect to win?” Miller developed a “ generalized, linear model ” based on the most recent sixteen presidential elections Say on a certain day, bettors give candidate A a quote of 52 cents, amounting to 52% chance of winning. By Miller’s reckoning, those 52% odds should also mean that at that moment, the best forecast holds that 52% of likely voters plan to cast their ballots for candidate A. It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris The distance is so great only an epic swing would bring Trump back into contention |
03b6dfc5ba0151ce56208befeaa3a66db27b922ff578c37e4714454454f92e56 | Global Risks 2024 | Fiscal miscalibration decimates markets. That guarantees extinction, escalating global tinderboxes and ruining societal adaptation.
Ellissa Cavaciuti-Wishart et al. 24, MPhil, Head, Global Risks, World Economic Forum; Sophie Heading, MA, Lead, Global Risks, World Economic Forum; Kevin Kohler, MA, Specialist, Global Risks, World Economic Forum; Saadia Zahidi, MPhil, Managing Director, World Economic Forum, "Global Risks 2024: At a Turning Point," & "Global Risks 2034: Over the Limit," in The Global Risks Report 2024, Chapter 1 & 2, January 2024, pg. 14-39. [italics in original]
small shock edge past the tipping point inflation heightens miscalibration downturn most central risk to trigger risks Escalat key hotspots – Ukraine , Israel and Taiwan powers step in eroding guardrails long term shifts in econ fragility contribute to conflict contagion viscerally threatening the world accelerate risk of inadvertent escalation frozen conflicts heat up include Balkans , Libya Kashmir and Korea hardship fuel n s a s control accelerate anti-Western sentiment power projection fade creating power vacuums new shocks would be unmanageable in fragility and passes the tipping point risk of miscalibration potentially deepen and prolong risks global risks where economic vulnerabilities build potential to become chronic resilience chipped away leaving states vulnerable emergent risks are arising upheaval elevate risk of global catastrophe Extreme weather Biod loss ecosystem collapse resource shortages Pollution Adverse AI reflect existential risks and disinfo Cyber insecurity terrorism inflation is corrosive on world order. soaring costs ate away at defense budget destabilize world where there is revolutionary kindling, inflation fatal spark Europe M E triggered protests, revolt repression Inflation create a inward-looking superpower as threats intensifying. defense budget risk being strangled by “inflation anaconda.” Pentagon build down as China expand Russia threaten conflict Iran |
02b72c04843d7cad13a9e6ca99d78202f33e1f3f3df3c398a08fbf96f9d32bce | Financial system climate risk | No physical risk or internal link – loans are short and climate change is slow, even overestimated affects don’t affect business
Cochrane 21 [John H, senior fellow of the Hoover Institution, an adjunct scholar at the CATO Institute, and the author of The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, “The Fallacy of Climate Financial Risk”, Project Syndicate, Jul 21, 2021. Accessed from https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/climate-financial-risk-fallacy-by-john-h-cochrane-2021-07?ref=readtangle.com, on 10/5/2024, NDawson]
“climate risk” poses a danger to the financial system is absurd systemic financial risk” means possibility the entire financial system will melt not that some asset price falls risk means sudden, unexpected, large, and widespread change in probability distribution of weather , sufficient to cause losses that blow through equity and long-term debt cushions , provoking run on short-term debt the five year horizon begin to assess risks Hurricanes droughts, and fires have never come close to causing systemic financial crises , there is no scientific possibility that frequency and severity will change to alter this in ten years. Our diversified economy is not affected by even by headline-making events stranded asset seems remote banks have few incentives (let alone approvals from risk committees) to securitize coal it seems given growing consensus away from carbon assets, demand will be small Banks are more incentivized than before 08 to conduct due diligence reforms require banks to retain a first-loss piece of any bond they sell forces banks to keep skin in the game banks not hold sufficient carbon assets to threaten solvency the amount of capital to absorb losses is quadruple exposure at all these in 2020 oil prices fell below zero dollars solvency did not come into question even significant climate shocks cannot drastically impair asset quality |
01a3d416d6ffb73a5f32e71c3b41a0dcc1118519445427c5d6a35fe8caef6471 | endogenous emissions cap | Cap-and-trade creates a green paradox
Gerlagh (gur-lak), Heijmans, Rosendahl 21. Reyer Gerlagh, Roweno J R K Heijmans, Knut Einar Rosendahl, 3-19-2021, "An endogenous emissions cap produces a green paradox", OUP Academic, https://academic.oup.com/economicpolicy/article/36/107/485/6178790. MSU-shARK
cap-and-trade suffers from strong green paradox emissions increase policies risk of being severely weakened policy-induced plunge increas emissions as compared with no Deal enacted |
0238bfcabdf75e73a8d6b00eeaa84f04b144a62264d675f5fac0c9a5e3df3f20 | st pierre order-words | Environmental education coheres through order-words like “green technology” and “clean energy” which shapes debaters into talking heads. In an economy of talking heads, order words regulate the production of energy to ensure the communication machine’s stability despite numerous interlocking crises.
St. Pierre, Joshua. 2022 [Canada Research Chair (Tier 2) in Critical Disability Studies and Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Alberta. He holds a BA in Humanities (Briercrest College), an MA in Philosophy (University of Alberta), and a PhD in Philosophy (University of Alberta). He is a multidisciplinary researcher and an avid gardener.] “Cheap Talk: Disability and the Politics of Communication”
an order-word is a command that regulates what can be thought and done They individuate subjects and assign social roles, functions, and identities Order-words simplify information to make information palatable talking heads draw on order-words to frame and make instantly understandable the complex tangle of world events cultivate a specific mood and drive home, through repetition, commands about how we ought to understand the world Communication machines constrain what can be seen and heard we believe ourselves to be the origin of our statements, but we are in fact spoken by the communication machine The more one interacts with such machines, “the more you abandon what you actually wanted to say |
0282ba95a1e9f4cc0199de3831ba479811d89057844cf511cc8c95eb63d8da82 | agency action implements statutes | Adopted rules meet policy---and legislative
Vida 13 [José Vida, Associate Professor, Department of Public Law, University Carlos III of Madrid, Visiting Scholar, Maurer Law School, IU and UC Berkeley Law School, “An Unquestionable Myth: The Consecreation of Cost-Benefit Analisys in the Regulatory State,” SSRN, 2-11-2013, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2377926]
Legally regulation has a precise definition any agency’s action to implement statute adoption of policymaking through rules the Supreme Court affirmed in five cases nine to zero agency rulemaking is legislative agencies are policy makers delegated authority to make policy |
0048fd4558c0e40fe711067dc9d9b42034271ef146e4b0ce4afcf66a95952bc5 | Andrew Wright | Dedev doesn’t solve the downsides of tech
Andrew J. Wright 19. Leading the Maritimes Region Fisheries and Oceans Canada assessment of impacts of shipping noise on North Atlantic right whales (NARW) as part of Canada’s Oceans Protection Plan. 09/2019. “The End? Science, Conservation, and Social Justice as Necessary Tools for Preventing the Otherwise Inevitable Human Extinction?” Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 281–285.
There is a moral obligation to address human extinction simply halting tech progress as a species is no longer an option as we have come too far and climatic changes , unsustainable resource use , and limits of physical space force us to seek additional tech solutions we must seek to continue to develop greater tech |
02deb7ae4aa6218bef407ada058f3f2f3f627ec9943870db0d37ace5b118adee | Presidential authority call special session | that means President calls a special session
GEORGE T. WASHINGTON no date, Assistant Solicitor General, “Presidential Authority to Call a Special Sessions of Congress”, https://www.justice.gov/file/147601-0/dl#page=2.00, accessed 9/29/24, HMc
the President has the power, under Article II, Section 3 of the Constitution, to call a special session of the Congress |
0219c14ce577863a07d43b8572d1a0e1053943107e4b68f432bd3dde09a02da6 | natural gas competitive longer | No link -- RPS stabilizes natural gas generation
Avraam et al. 2021 [Charalampos Avraam, Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University; John E.T. Bistline, Electric Power Research Institute; Maxwell Brown, National Renewable Energy Laboratory; Kathleen Vaillancourt, Esmia Consultants; Sauleh Siddiqui, Department of Environmental Science, American University, “North American natural gas market and infrastructure developments under different mechanisms of renewable policy coordination” Energy Policy, January 2021; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520305723#sec6]
greater RPS coordination allows regions with low renewables to exploit the credits of their neighbors allowing for greater investment in gas-fired generation on aggregate natural gas is coordination assumptions Decrease in short-term consumption results in decrease of prices However, decrease in prices renders natural gas competitive for a longer period of time compared to other power tech thus increases consumption in the long-term RPS reduce the price increase investment in plants and mitigate the impact of RPS on natural gas consumption results reveal tradeoff between lower consumption but greater trade of natural gas |
00d59d91be4c0da68cc04b9da28e1925e43e2757acf7f724bb1a3aa40a183ff0 | Aramco profits 2023 | Aaramco is seeing record profits
Gambrell 24—Jon Gambrell (New director for the Gulf and Iran at the associated press). “Aramco announces $121 billion profit in 2023, Saudi oil giant’s 2nd highest on record” May 10, 2024, accessed September 11, 2024. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/aramco-announces-121-billion-profit-in-2023-saudi-oil-giants-2nd-highest-on-record
Saudi oil giant Aramco made $121 billion in profit last year The results marked the company’s second highest ever result Despite being lower Aramco boosted dividends due to its stock holders Saudi Arabia has allied with others to try to boost global oil prices. |
007ea39d79a824ffc25ea66d35ff674b927b21b29dac5eca0eb6a74c0d6d0cb0 | MENA vulnerabilities | MENA-based terror is a unique vector for CBRN incidents.
Hassan Farhat et al. 24, MSc, Quality Improvement Mentor, Quality Patient Safety & Risk Management, Ambulance Service Group, Hamad Medical Corporation; Dr. Guillaume Alinier, PhD, Director, Research, Ambulance Service, Hamad Medical Corporation; Mariana Helou, MD, Clinical Assistant Professor & Clerkship Director, Emergency Room, Division Head of Emergency Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation; Ionnais Galatis, MD, Consultant, Allergy & Clinical Immunology, Medical/Hospital/Ops CBRNE Planner/Instructor, Senior Asymmetric Threats Analyst, & Research Associate, Center for Security Studies. Retired Brigadier General; Dr. Nidaa Bajow, MD, PhD, Disaster Medicine Coordinator & Disaster Medicine Training Supervisor, Disaster Medicine Unit, The Ambulance Service, Hamad Medical Corporation, "Perspectives on Preparedness for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Threats in the Middle East and North Africa Region: Application of Artificial Intelligence Techniques," Health Security, Vol. 22, No. 3, 06/17/2024 pg. 5-6.
risk of chem bio radiological , and nuc incidents increased studies indicated role of terrorist groups in weaponising agents In MENA groups pose significant risks and lead to widespread emergencies it has devastating vulnerabilities due to cross-border risks strategically located between three continents which increases exposure to deliberate and accidental CBRN incidents a global econ power witnessed multiple conflicts involving chem weapons increasing risk |
0125ac253c60a6152ef09973c8ede866780bb9375ad2ea6821e11ac07e995436 | climate change root cause | Their evidence concedes that climate change is the root cause.
Peter Gleick 21, MacArthur Fellow, Member of the US National Academy of Sciences and Hydroclimatologist, B.S. from Yale University and M.S. and Ph.D. from the University of California, Berkeley, “Water Recommendation for the New Administration”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 77, 2021
Climate changes are already affect ing US water resources and will worsen Water problems will be a source of conflict many countries will experience shortages that risk state failure , increase tensions , and distract from working on important objectives threat multipliers pose challenges for the world at large US foreign policy should reduc risks around the world conflict-resolution and management hold promise to address problems federal actions should include judicial actions The need is great, but so are opportunities |
03ee46b49a74b48a14a4cb659bd13ba75d0561b509a40c454a1d520e19e4159e | Dylan Rodriguez white supremacy | The global police order of white-supremacy is maintained through a fusing of juridical apparatuses with white bodily integrity such that racial geographies are terraformed into sites of extraction or waste --- not of just what is demarcated as nature, but of the very lifeworlds that Black, Brown, and Native people inhabit in make. Empire requires manufacturing ongoing racial apocalypses to pollute alternative forms of life with the toxicity of civility and the deathworlds it brings.
Dylan Rodriguez 10, “Suspended Apocalypse: White Supremacy, Genocide, and the Filipino Condition,” University of Minnesota Press, 2010,
“ juridical ordering ” shapes “ disaster overfocus on bureaucratic fumblings normaliz violence against “slaves and barbarians the lens of critical theorists demystify the architectures of death manufactured in presumed inevitability chaos planned displacement “relief” and fatality illuminate global dominion of white life as the collective project that precedes constitutes and overdetermines empire global white supremacy dis-/relocates machinery of empire as “world order.” police power neocolonial rule occupation perpetual war is the condition for empire Unless there are constant racist violence “peace” — would implode. encompassing Empire as power does not subsume apartheid and genocidal white supremacy “police” power is “normalcy” Empire is crisis mobilizations speak to contradictions ” of Empire justice will find no resolution the discourse of “ justice and peace is irrelevant structured irrelevance make sense why racial apocalypse bring forward resonances between black American premature death and Third World suffering normalized liquidation Unnatural black death , indigenous planned obsolescence constitutive of U.S. nation building war, disaster, and protogenocide central to neocolonial worlds Imagine the labor required to expose racially identifiable “ civil population and racial geography to preventable death and mobiliz police and civil forces disaster , means end of white liberal humanism survivors of colonialism share a belief in evil that evil inhabits and possesses the white world relationality to “others Liberal white humanism circulates a shared universal “human” militarizing against threats to the white body white humanism can survive if capable of persistently reconstructing apparatus to accommodate materialization of evil in black New Orleans, Aeta Mt. Pinatubo, and so forth What does disaster tell us of evil? What happens when we look up and evil is armed absence and militarized neglect, intentional and institutional materialized through the white world’s persistent integrity in the face of incredible suffering |
017df8163945c6aeb9264a6d32401cb9ed75e9dd11ae9eb1df2fc4c26606f535 | James Rowe 23 | Fossil civilization’s fear of death precludes hospitality, making it impossible to cultivate existential affirmation.
James Rowe 23. [Associate Professor of environmental studies and cultural, social, and political thought at the University of Victoria. His interdisciplinary research program is motivated by a desire to understand and strengthen social movements working toward social and ecological justice. “Practice for a Just, Livable Future” in Radical Mindfulness: Why Transforming Fear of Death is Politically Vital. Set to be published in October, 2023. Taylor & Francis Group. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/edit/10.4324/9781003406181/radical-mindfulness-james-rowe]//dawn
Acknowledging death means accepting This can only promote life Denying death only brings more death distributed across axes of power crystallized by climate crisis will make life difficult. With hospitality under threat , harder to cultivate existential affirmation Higher fear increase fuel for supremacist relations facing our finitude is necessary Just because something is finite doesn’t mean it isn’t wonderful Despite finitude and fossil capitalism affirmation of basic goodness can support more just worlds |
000a064a2ed2e6c851497178d5fe27149a4c19044d7f433cb7a4e248e0f78459 | Erdmann 23 | Recycling and reuse solves pollution – clean energy and security outweigh short-term costs
Erdmann 23 (Major Tyson E. Erdmann, 03-31-2023, "Diversifying the U.S. Rare Earth Element Resource Base is Vital to National Security", US Naval War College Writing & Teaching Excellence Center, https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/trecms/pdf/AD1209298.pdf [cut using OCR – pardon spelling and format weirdness!]) – MoState JG
Despite costs increased domestic extraction is best shifts control back to the U S become more self-reliant less dependent on market volatility caused by China's geopolitical conflicts security outweigh costs mitigated through recycling and reuse by themselves would fail when combined with increased domestic production and additional sourcing from allies could be effective clean mining will be marketable It is worth paying costs up front rather than setbacks later |
046f92c7282bc4c3ad2378e9f8395d2d937ae209fa0d580dfea4c9da5c436fff | WTO is not a trojan horse | WTO is not a Trojan Horse and is not spreading the “neoliberal Agenda”
James Bacchus 23 is known worldwide as a global jurist, activist, writer, scholar, and statesman. “The World Trade Organization: Myths versus Reality”. September 26th, 2023. https://www.cato.org/publications/world-trade-organization-myths-versus-reality#conclusion. DOA: 9-6-24 Rslish.
WTO multilateral means achieving freer trade WTO’s founding Agreement recognizes that trade should be conducted with a view to raising standards of living, hing in the WTO agreements that requires the implementation of a worldwide “neoliberal” agenda to eliminate gov regulations Critics talk much about need for “policy space reserved for domestic law fear that the WTO will overrule local regulations None of this is true O agreements are replete with provisions that assume there will be domestic health, safety, enviro , and other reg s allow more local policy spac |
0303dcdb35a8c684f45e306438e2395f9e4910cc1ba8679667df5ceeb02c332c | deflating dragon | China’s officially in a recession.
Yardeni 11-11, *President of Yardeni Research, Inc; **analyst at the NY Fed. (*Ed, **Eric Wallerstein, 11-11-2024, “China: A Deflating Dragon,” Yardeni: QuickTakes, https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/china-a-deflating-dragon/)
The recession was in China huge negative wealth effect of falling property and stock prices caused consumers to retrench China's economy remains weak evidenced by flat imports The government seems to lack the will, or way to stimulate demand |
004bf92d7a8ee7b1dbe91c8c1fd80c59960f8ff6b4a75c106c240ec57fb2670e | David Sergeant 18 | Affect doesn’t scale up to material transformation
David Sergeant 18, Lecturer in English, University of Plymouth, School of Humanities and Performing Arts, University of Plymouth, “Representing the Planet: Affect, Scale and Utopia,” Novel: A Forum on Fiction, https://pearl.plymouth.ac.uk/handle/10026.1/12724, [inserted “might” after to “might medium” because I believe “might medium” is a typo; alteration denoted by brackets]
scalar problems are built into the existent world exposing collective affect as an empty lyricism when modelled as pre-subjective intensities , affects act as a scalar solution one and many both in themselves This underlies transformative role theories ‘ don’t answer the question of how human nature can be transmuted making it available to narrative and history fluency is inevitably lost the question remains as to what medium into a different kind of future and up the chain of scale . |
00d64f6b30971fb531b20072819947fe4dd39c25e6f8224864b8dca472325753 | No Solvency – Fossil Fuel Subsidies | And – No Solvency – Fossil Fuel Subsidies are federal, even if States tax they can’t access Federal Lands or build on them. Biden’s “carbon tax” doesn’t price externalities, keeping pollution profitable.
Revesz and Sarinsky 22, *AnBryce Professor of Law and Dean Emeritus, New York University School of Law, **Adjunct Professor of Law and Senior Attorney, Institute for Policy Integrity, New York University School of Law (*Richard L. Revesz, **Max Sarinsky, 2022, “ARTICLE: The Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases: Legal, Economic, and Institutional Perspective,” 39 Yale J. on Reg. 856, University of Kansas Libraries, Lexis)
producers currently over-invest in extraction because they bear few costs Although extraction on federal lands accounts for a huge share of emissions the fed does not internalize cost of pollution onto producers a carbon adder based on g h g s would internalize costs of fossil extraction |
016b9b4445fefba3af9d305900f8135518d9617c93d9426a0786224aad4f4207 | Trumpism cannot be fused with Reaganism | It is a historic betrayal.
Schoenfeld ’24 [Gabriel; March 21; senior fellow at the Niskanen Center, is the author of Necessary Secrets: National Security, the Media, and the Rule of Law; Bulwark, “No, Trumpism Can’t Be Fused with Reaganism,” https://www.thebulwark.com/p/no-trumpism-cannot-be-fused-with-reaganism]
Kroenig Erecting sanitized cover for Trump by wrapping him in Reagan’s mantle is disgusting betrayal of history |
042e3b14599ae200b6bcb05ff0fa99c47d322db009444da050e4346bc216d22c | Paul Joseph Kelly Jr. 11 | Adopted means in effect
Paul Joseph Kelly Jr. 11, Judge, United States Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit, “Kerber v. Qwest Group Life Ins. Plan,” 647 F.3d 950, Lexis
because adopt is not defined we give it common ordinary meaning in common usage an amendment can be adopted so long as that is put into effect |
004cf553f94343b5a99fff1e5398c3ead50245f53c29f8a4e95a64875ed1d518 | sacrifice zones and pollution | The fossil fuel industry creates sacrifice zones that harm the most vulnerable—don’t fool yourself the alt leaves them to die.
Donaghy et al. '23 [Timothy Donaghy, Noel Healy, Charles Jiang, and Colette Pichon Battle, PhD in Physics at the University of Chicago; associate professor in geography department at Salem State University, PhD at the National University of Ireland; JD at Yale; American lawyer and climate justice organizer, Honorary Doctorate from Kenyon College, law degree at Southern University Law Center, "Fossil fuel racism in the United States: How phasing out coal, oil, and gas can protect communities", Energy Research & Social Science, Volume 100, published 6-1-2023, accessed 10-5-2024]
fossil fuel require “ sacrifice zones heavily polluted inhabitants subject to health risks inflicts slow violence landscape destruction water contamination poisoning of air forcible displacement from ancestral lands fossil fuel mechanism of structural racism climate change unevenly felt. most vulnerable those in the global south impacts disproportionately harm Black , Brown , Indigenous and poor communities fossil fuel corp s adopted gerrymandering to suppress turnout connections between fossil fuel and authoritarians |
01efa74607b0f345a0d26437d218b43f4719f1b7bfdc3c9ea89569c3a0da60e1 | crypto energy intensive emissions | The plan penalizes cryptocurrency’s energy intensive financed emissions.
Alessio Pezzotta 24, Senior ESG Risk Manager, 12-29-2024, "Crypto and Digital Assets Risk Management", Medium, https://medium.com/exponential-science-foundation/crypto-and-digital-assets-risk-management-e14021f3d494
cryptocurrency markets experience liquidity challenges banks have targets on emissions and financed emissions crypto increasing financed emissions assets are energy-intensive the challenge is how to make crypto assets profitable given the GHG emissions target |
03741ea17670448738d9727077230962df6298816bebf05389bc4b1c371abf26 | Industrial ag dependent on fossil fuels | Industrial Ag is DEPENDENT on fossil fuel extraction to fuel this growth. Controlled declines of intensity and consumption solve best.
GAFF* 23 [*Global Alliance for the Future of Food {Alliance of philanthropic foundations aligned toward transforming global food systems}. Power Shift: Why We Need to Wean Industrial Food Systems Off Fossil Fuels. n.p.: Global Alliance for the Future of Food, 2023, https://futureoffood.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ga_food-energy-nexus_report.pdf] //falcon
Industrial food energy intensive and dependent on fossil fuels food account for 15% of global fossil fuel use fuel use will increase unless we drastically transform systems Fossil fuels crucial to produce and package food, power machinery and equipment, fuel transportation systems, and for storage and cooking Energy intensity growing due to: increased mechanization ; growing fossil inputs growing demand for meat, dairy, and ultra-processed foods |
0227b5bcd40a0bd0802464aeea2e35bf5070dd4bccc4bdfcc2e322f0ad3ef985 | sustainable finance harm money | C – Capital’s focus on efficiency leads to deregulation and lobbying for exemptions. That causes accumulation.
Spash 20 - Clive Spash 2020 (Clive is an economist, Professor of Public Policy and Governance at the Vienna University of Economics and Business, Editor-in-Chief of Environmental Values, and former President of the European Society for Ecological Economics. His works cover climate change, biodiversity loss, air pollution and conservation. He advocates social–ecological transformation and a paradigm shift in economic thought. "The capitalist passive environmental revolution" Published by the ecological citizen. Accessed 11-09-2024. URL: https://www.ecologicalcitizen.net/pdfs/v04n1-12.pdf) //MSUCB
Corporations market growth as green, circular, inclusive, sustainable and smart soft policies are combined with lobbying media control funding of denialism and antienvironmental think tanks The latest rhetoric is sustainable finance’ Insurers profit from catastrophes For ‘sustainable financiers’, more harm means making more money A claim that the system’ can be ‘adjusted’ without removing corporate or capitalist structures unregulated financialization can be made into a tradable financial asset capital-accumulating economy is no longer the cause of social–ecological crises but their solution |
00eb1ff03061cdbe5e2ce62ea20068426d546405df8532dbbf43f5d419509a73 | Stokes and Mildenberger | 1) Demand is inelastic, so consumers won’t shift.
Leah C. Stokes & Matto Mildenberger 20, Stokes is an assistant professor at the University of California Santa Barbara, the author of Short-Circuiting Policy, Mildenberger is an assistant professor at the University of California Santa Barbara, “The Trouble with Carbon Pricing”, Boston Review, 9-24-20, https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/trouble-carbon-pricing/
Norway , which has the highest carbon prices emissions in oil rose 78 percent because of demand inelasticity if no easy alternatives high taxes won’t reduce pollution research suggests limited innovation we lack strong ev carbon pricing induced clean tech corporations will not innovate because of minor tweaks EU reduced emissions by 4 percent reductions are nothing compared to what needs to be done pricing is like bringing a stick to a knife fight |
021b9ef0072c0d4ec4a49b3ee3acc392cfe619c19a0d285c085a76206475e76a | ocean acidification | Alternative causality – overfishing destroys ocean biosystems
SEAS AT RISK 2023 (Headquartered in Brussels, Seas At Risk has strong connections with the European institutions and with the UN and regional bodies responsible for seas and oceans, as well as with other like-minded organisations in Europe and around the world. This, together with our expertise and solid membership base, makes Seas At Risk a powerful voice, championing the cause of healthy seas and oceans for over 30 years., “Ending overfishing to counter climate change”, https://seas-at-risk.org/general-news/ending-overfishing-to-counter-climate-change/#:~:text=The%20extra%20carbon%20emitted%20into,%2C%20ocean%20acidification%2C%20and%20deoxygenation. [CORNELL DBT] note://// indicates par. breaks)[AR HOUSTON24]
, overfishing is directly contributing to the climate breakdown with the support of over 40 scholars, joins the dots among the scientific findings n the past decade Fishing on depleted fish stocks requires more fuel less fish in the ocean forces fishers to search longer , go further out and use heavier gears to catch the fish the fisheries’ carbon footprint increases when fish populations are not replenished . extra carbon emitted fish aggravates climate ocean acidification, and deoxygenation |
007f0cceee58e997862605568a39e4274d6d17b636fca553f2acb422aa79760c | climate emergency counterinsurgency tear gas | It is through this intimate investment into the fantastical power of social democracy that “hope policy rolls like tear gas into the undercommons”.
Demos 23 [Life in the Posthuman Condition. Chapter 5: “Climate Control: From Emergency to Emergence” T. J. Demos. Collection Edited by S. E. Wilmer and Audrone. Žukauskaite ISBN 978 1 3995 0529 1. 2023//Spence]
if we consider tear gas as the medium of climate emergency We face an entirely different politico-ecological calculus . counterinsurgency increasingly demands democratic authoritarian control . uprisings in Hong Kong San Juan Iraq Chile migrants crossing the border all answered with tear gas integral the response to opposition that bypasses conventional routes of negotiation . these revolutions offer important lessons for climate emergency With carbon the source is distributed, complex . tear gas grenades remain intimately intertwined, with energy, infrastructure and security . for environmentalists climate threatens civilisational collapse, attributed most immediately – and tellingly – to atmospheric carbon . urgency is misdirected . demands that governments ‘tell the truth’ about climate , ‘act now’ to decarbonise bypassi such groups as I E N which highlight racial and class climate disruption . deluded liberalism narrowly focus on carbon as the cause of emergency emptying activist rituals of traction . the generalised ‘we’ situat emergency in the near future defin it as carbon caused, as if disaster hasn’t already occurred . policy proposals reaffirm emergency without emergence green capital invites the state of exception to take command . climate emergency becomes financial insurance , redirecting towards market solutions what could otherwise be insurgency . Bolsonaro Duterte Netanyahu and Trump declare emergency of their own making shrouded in tear gas . juridico-political and military frameworks – functions as humanitarian warfare’ employed to defend power tear gas hypes safety but enacts repression its calculus of impact materialises slow violence . |
03c1502ed5a2075b65380a9f54f898e620b2411003f5d845a40133b9aea5542e | nuclear testing Armageddon | Advisors causes extinction.
Jackson ’24 [Van; June 18; PhD, Professor of International Relations at Victoria University of Wellington; Un-Diplomatic, “MAGA Geopolitics: Between Extinction and a New Dark Age,” https://www.un-diplomatic.com/p/maga-geopolitics-between-extinction]
China hawks Pottinger called for regime change in Beijing that is a death sentence Miller deploying Marine Corps to Asia and nuc testing Asia’s already a powder keg Adding Marines is likely to cause war If we’re unlucky, we end up with extinction nuclear testing was a common path to Armageddon |
00adbef11acaf710ffcfef1b17bd9cb5d16bf6fc06cfa8bf270b682a1c2983ec | Lisa Song ProPublica | Studies have disproved every program---despite promises new methods would solve
Song 19 [Lisa Song, reports on the environment, energy and climate change for ProPublica, won the 2013 Pulitzer for national reporting, “An (Even More) Inconvenient Truth: Why Carbon Credits For Forest Preservation May Be Worse Than Nothing,” ProPublica, 5-22-2019, https://features.propublica.org/brazil-carbon-offsets/inconvenient-truth-carbon-credits-dont-work-deforestation-redd-acre-cambodia/]
mounting pile of ev haven’t and won’t deliver quickly reversed are doing damage C D M report found 85% J I 75% Almost all failed additionality told safeguards avoid repeating mistakes deluding even under new standard |
042e60d44128606463356bfed543a4c1056126e3215ac818ca275db43d82077c | Mark Mills energy transition | 3 - LITERATURE BASE. Subsidization is the only “substantive debate” about energy transition.
Mills 24, Mark P. Mills, contributing editor of City Journal, executive director of the National Center on Energy Analytics, a strategic partner in the energy fund Montrose Lane, and author of The Cloud Revolution: How the Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020s, City Journal, 7-16-2024 ["A Bet Against the “Energy Transition”, available on: https://www.city-journal.org/article/a-bet-against-the-energy-transition, accessed: 10-23-2024]rrf
energy transition is already underway This is firmly embedded in policies, and rhetoric The only substantive debate about the energy transition concerns how fast it’s happening and what should be subsidized |
00dc30871ed92181ca2035ea5191b0797b7e261e48aaed30504a2571adcedc2b | polling errors favor Trump | Toss up favors Trump.
Douthat 9-6, Opinion Columnist for the New York Times with over a decade of experience writing on politics (Ross Douthat, September 6, 2024, “Why I Still Think Trump Will Win,” New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/06/opinion/trump-victory.html)
why expect the coin to fall Trump ? if Harris were on track she be leading decisively And yet isn’t if current dead heat is her ceiling regard Trump as a favorite polling errors in 16 and 20 led Trump’s overperforming Dem overeager to tell pollsters how they’re voting creates survey problems |
0476f95232146b146e230788dd279cbeece2681bec55628b7768451522a34d3c | 20 trillion IREA report | The “20 trillion” figure their ev cites is from an IREA report.
Gregg Gelzinis 21. Associate director for Economic Policy, Center for American Progress; former graduate school fellow, Office of Financial Institutions, US Treasury; MA, American Government, Georgetown University. “Addressing Climate-Related Financial Risk Through Bank Capital Requirements.” Center for American Progress. May 11, 2021. https://www.americanprogress.org/article/addressing-climate-related-financial-risk-bank-capital-requirements/.
I R E A 17 |
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