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Saradzhyan 10
That goes nuclear. Saradzhyan 10 (Simon Saradzhyan, Director, Russia Matters Projec @ the Belfer Center, 5-4-2010, "The Role of China in Russia’s Military Thinking," Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/role-china-russias-military-thinking, accessed 2-17-2024) Should conflict between Russia and China break out Russia has gamed out a limited nuclear strike to prevent foe from overwhelming forces Russian generals developed plans for in the East Russian generals will demonstrate re solve actually increase the risk prompt Beijing to respond by launching ICBMs out of con cern
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oil spats were brief nonfatal
2---Alt causes war, and any real oil wars didn’t escalate. Meierding ‘20 [Emily; assistant professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Chicago, the historical record indicates countries fought 180 oil wars a closer look reveals that none merits the oil war ” label countries fought for other reasons , including regional hegemony , domestic politics, national pride , or other assets Oil was an uncommon trigger and never caused major conflicts oil spats were brief nonfatal and n ever escalated
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markets solve green energy
Central planning for the current population with green energy is infeasible and destroys the globe---markets solve. Cwik and Engelhardt 23, *Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of Mount Olive, **Associate Professor of Economics at Kent State University (*Paul F., **Lucas M., 2023, “Revisiting the Computation Problem,” The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, Vol. 26, No. 3, University of Kansas Libraries, Lib Key) 8 billion consumers would require twenty million gigawatt-hours of power fifty billion acres of wind could generate the power. The area of the earth is 126 billion of which 70 percent is water solar farm requires an area larger than Russia The vastness of transactions precludes solving this What is the solution? the market If the problem is broken into smaller pieces market use prices to summarize the info needed reason to deny feasibility of central planning
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mass noun single type example
B — A before a mass noun means single type AHD 92 – American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language 1992 (Third Edition) p. 1 Used before a mass noun to indicate a single type or example
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dollar resilient post recession
5. Dollar is resilient. Joseph POLITANO Financial Management Analyst @ Bureau of Labor Statistics 3-26-22 https://apricitas.substack.com/p/sanctions-on-russia-wont-end-the?r=lllv0&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=direct The internet runs on negative news financial world is no exception The US dollar will continue reign doesn’t get clicks 2020 recessions were tougher challenges for the dollar after each the dollar emerged as more sought-after . The British Pound is instructive it took two world wars for America to become reserve issuer
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Psychoanalysis outdated drive theory
Psychoanalytic drive theory is wrong---studies of localized human brain lesions and animal self-stimulus prove Watt 12, senior clinical Neuropsychologist at the Boston University School of Medicine, Harvard Medical School (Douglas, “Theoretical challenges in the conceptualization of motivation in neuroscience: Implications for the bridging of neuroscience and psychoanalysis”, pg 85-108) work on motivation received major impetus from localized electrical brain stimulation, which found animals selfstimulate ventral tegmental area this generates a positive state, described as hopefulness consummatory pleasure may not require ventral tegmental dopamine systems while anticipatory excitement clearly does there is no simple motivational ‘ centre ’ in the brain) as it appears after injury to structures psychoanalysis has been hampered by its allegiance to outdated drive theory Freud had no access neuroscience. A reworking of psychoanalysis, away from drive theory (which does not conceptualize social connection needs would bring psychoanalysis into register with neuroscience drive-discharge’ models cannot do justice to complexity where prototype emotions operate, as behavioural involve more complex aims attachment theory has supplanted drive theory, psychoanalysis needs to incorporate multiple prototype /affective systems. to with empirical work on neural substrates there were two large clusters of emotional systems, not ‘Eros’ and ‘Thanatos’, it was the protection of the organism versus systems that tied organisms together for a shared purpose Eros but not Thanatos
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drastic action can avert IPCC
Acting on warming now is uniquely good. Fiona Harvey 23, Environment Editor for the Guardian, 3/20/2023, "Scientists deliver ‘final warning’ on climate crisis: act now or it’s too late," https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/20/ipcc-climate-crisis-report-delivers-final-warning-on-15c warning only drastic action can avert IPCC set out assessment world still has chance of limiting rises still hope of staying within 1.5 underscores urgency of action Temperatures are about 1.1 If emissions peak and are reduced it may be possible to avoid ravages
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Climate tipping points cause extinction
It causes extinction---tipping points are certain and soon. Spratt ’24 [David; December 2; Research Director, Breakthrough National Center for Climate Restoration, Founder, Climate Action Center, BS, Economics, Australian National University; Breakthrough Center; “Collision Course: 3-degrees of Warming and Humanity’s Future,” https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/_files/ugd/148cb0_085aaeb2f1a1481789014b8e895ad23b.pdf] the climate system are reaching tipping points centuries faster than projected models downplay non-linear processes the past is no longer a guide to the future. tail risks are expected and threaten society abrupt thawing of permafrost ; loss of all coral s ; collapse of A M O C can trigger loss of crops instability and collapse the Doomsday Glacier is near collapse Summer sea- ice has been lost permafrost source of g h g s boreal forests have raised emissions The Amazon has become a net source And the monsoon is heading to cause dieback all reefs extinct , land sinks collapsed absorbed no carbon collapse of AMOC 95% of occurring could happen within decades would flip the seasons half the world could dry out majority of scientists expect warming more than 3 and catastrophic impacts dystopian famines heatwaves and storms locked in unless emissions decline Only rapid near-term reductions are effective in reducing climate risks weather can result in failures in critical systems , water food energy trade , and security The IPCC leave out many tipping points feedbacks drive the Earth to no return Hothouse humans lack capacity to stop warming an existential threat could exist at 1.5°
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US failure global south
4. They read an aff card---it’s bad for the global south because the US hasn’t done anything! Michigan is in green. Julie de los Reyes & Jewellord Nem Singh 24. *Assistant professor at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies and Hakubi Center for Advanced Research at Kyoto University. **Assistant Professor, International Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University Rotterdam. “Net-Zero and the China Challenge: Decarbonization amid Great Power Competition in the Indo-Pacific.” Monthly Review. 7-1-2024. https://monthlyreview.org/2024/07/01/net-zero-and-the-china-challenge-decarbonization-amid-great-power-competition-in-the-indo-pacific/ As decarbonization accelerates strategic importance has risen of materials critical to transition energy underpin s the U.S.-China rivalry U.S. re-engagement is part of a broader strategy to contain China locking in economic partnerships on minerals infrastructures, and supply chains Energy sources serve as a “key currency of power shift to renewable energy entail dependencies on materials different from carbon sources carbon neutrality involves the unfolding rivalry changing the geopolitical landscape The emergence of China as a global leader in renewable energy increased leverage With China viewed as a threat the U.S.- moved to rally its allies to restore balance the U.S. shift toward protectionism saw the U S withdraw from trade agreement For many Global South countries, the inability of the United States, Japan, and allied countries to match what China has achieved underscores the glaring failure of the liberal international order to address pressing social and environmental issue solutions will require a constructive relationship this mean accepting China
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Trump mandate
Trump PC is insufficient for mass deportation now Montanaro 1-15-2025, political columnist at NPR (“Trump will begin his presidency in delicate position, poll finds,” NPR, https://www.npr.org/2025/01/15/nx-s1-5259893/poll-trump-immigration-economy-favorability) despite claims of a powerful mandate Trump may have to be careful about whether to mass deport immigrants Trump promised action but politics may be tricky Presidents become vulnerable because of overreach They believe falsely that because they were elected, they have a mandate for everything on their agenda that's not the case The opening round of the term is not going well Americans are not convinced of Trump's agenda Mass deportations are getting mixed reviews
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clean energy investment double
Clean energy is inevitable, but it’s not fast enough. Ambrose ’24 [Jillian Ambrose is an energy correspondent for The Guardian. “Investment in Clean Energy Likely to be Double Figure for Fossil Fuels in 2024, IEA Says,” Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/06/investment-in-clean-energy-likely-to-be-double-figure-for-fossil-fuels-in-2024-iea-says, published June 6, 2024, accessed 9-28-2024]. low-carbon electricity 10 times increase clean energy investment double too high climate targets off track to meet ripling re generation by 2030 vital to enable swift transition
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Matsuda 23
The CP solves---avoids high transaction costs 1AC Matsuda 23 procedural downsides may outweigh benefits determining the social cost of g h g requires estimates and resources, and expertise For some those increased transaction costs may become high To limit the impact transaction costs the Council should establish a dollar threshold below which acquisitions are exempt from Requiring purchasing agencies for high dollar value contracts will maximize climate change mitigation while minimizing negative impacts on competition Purchases below $250,000 are subject to simplified contracting procedures exempting acquisitions below threshold will maximize mitigation efforts while minimizing sideeffects
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Kearney Reuters
4. Surface area increases. Kearney 24 – U.S. Energy Reporter at Reuters. M.A. in Journalism, business and economic concentration, Columbia University. U.S. grids are increasingly vulnerable to cyberattacks with the number of susceptible points increasing by 60 per day The grids' weak spots susceptible to cyber criminals grew last year It's hard to keep pace with all those vulnerabilities
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affect is non-cognitive
Affect-driven politics is a double-edged sword—affect is powerful because it is non-cognitive and autonomous from rationality, but that means its impossible to politically direct or control – all of their arguments for why the law can’t grapple with aff are also reasons why the alt can’t solve Barnett 8 – Professor of Geography @ Open The ontologisation of affect expels affect from the space of reasons by drawing too sharp a distinction between perception and action The recourse to ethos-talk marks a choice to deploy a genre that allows one to register a commitment to certain values without having to present arguments in favour of them The eschewing of reasons betray an unacknowledged parochialism in these ontologies of affect. Affectively enhanced onto-stories embrace as a virtue rather than a vice the recurring difficulty that characterises deliberative accounts of democratic pluralism: have in not being able to outline neutral procedures for negotiating across difference Eschewing reason-giving in favour of the enactment of affectively infused ethos courts universalising culturally specific norms affect matters politically because it opens up surfaces for manipulation Excitement anguish contempt anger and rage have no a priori political valence at all ontologies of affect are presented as the basis of new models of progressive politics Their value remains unclear, because no effort is made to clarify what practical implications the ontology of affect has for the democratic principle
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minimal risk nuclear waste
2] Turn- Advanced Nuclear Energy solves and no impact to meltdowns- fear of nuclear energy and waste is unwarranted Rhem ‘23 – (PhD, PE, CSP, CPSA, CLP, led the Saudi Aramco Compliance Review Team, currently serves as chair of the AIChE South Texas Section Executive Committee, on the Safety & Health Division Virtual Meeting Planning Committee, a member of the AIChE Process Safety Curriculum Team, and a judge at Houston Engineering Science Fairs and Houston Community College Science Competitions., “‘Advanced nuclear energy: the safest and most renewable clean energy”, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2211339822000880?via%3Dihub, 4/17/2024) AM nuclear waste has minimal risk All nuclear fuel waste generated thus far , could be stacked onto one football field With advanced nuclear, this minimal risk is reduced further Advanced nuclear technology is far safer fear is unwarranted There were no deaths and no negative health effect s from Three Mile Island accident At Fukushima one died Chernobyl was poorly designed reactor No nuclear plants have been built with this design outside Russian federation
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black suffering language
There’s no grammar to explain black suffering- plan focus is a smokescreen that distracts from violence in the quotidian Sexton 2010 (“African American Studies,” A Concise Companion to American Studies (Blackwell Companions in Cultural Studies) pp 221-3) freedom is preceded ontologically, by a more confounding question: what does it mean to suffer? black intellectuals have done too much posturing about plans. If anything, we have a surplus of plans! we do not have a language that adequately articulates variance and commonality of our positions suffering as pain must bear singularly Proper illumination can we not speak of it as a stratagem Hartman’s response to look, alternately, at “scenes in the mundane and quotidian diffusion of terror they are disallowed from building arguments in the first place, barred from levying claims of grievance what does it mean to suffer This “challenge,” of giving expression to the inexpressible
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colonial subordination
Refuse the “will to forget” subaltern memories, expunging the infinite generations of loss. Myles Lennon 20. Dean's Assistant Professor of Environment and Society and Anthropology at Brown University; Ph.D in Anthropology and Forestry & Environmental Studies from Yale University; B.A. in Development Studies from Brown University. “Postcarbon Amnesia: Toward a Recognition of Racial Grief in Renewable Energy Futures,” 22 January 2020, https://doi.org/10.1177/0162243919900556, DOA: 8/1/2024, seiji clean energy reproduce free market exploitation tech brought to market through carbon-intensive plastic and marine containers poor p o c assemble them for poverty wages and expose to toxins we always defer intent on offering a utopic alternative a repressive dynamic to ignore batteries from lithium mining steal indigenous resources Solar extraction plastics and mining aluminum create e-waste when decommissioned produced in exploitative conditions utopic postcarbon future made through an elision of pain reproductive of colonial hierarchy the postcarbon moment necessitates eradication of carbon markets a “ will to forget” erase memories of colonial subordination the past can’t be expunged extractive carbon practices undergird tomorrow’s renewable energy the wounds of racial grief can’t be healed through utopic tech
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WTO not overrule local regulations
WTO is not a Trojan Horse and is not spreading the “neoliberal Agenda” James Bacchus 23 is known worldwide as a global jurist, activist, writer, scholar, and statesman. “The World Trade Organization: Myths versus Reality”. September 26th, 2023. https://www.cato.org/publications/world-trade-organization-myths-versus-reality#conclusion. DOA: 9-6-24 Rslish. WTO multilateral means achieving freer trade WTO’s founding Agreement recognizes that trade should be conducted with a view to raising standards of living, hing in the WTO agreements that requires the implementation of a worldwide “neoliberal” agenda to eliminate gov regulations Critics talk much about need for “policy space reserved for domestic law fear that the WTO will overrule local regulations None of this is true O agreements are replete with provisions that assume there will be domestic health, safety, enviro , and other reg s allow more local policy spac
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Li 24
And widespread Li 24 [Marie Li, High Meadows Climate Risk Fellow at the Environmental Defense Fund, “Investors, bipartisan former officials, others defend SEC climate risk disclosure rule,” Environmental Defense Fund, 8-22-2024, https://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2024/08/22/investors-bipartisan-former-officials-others-defend-sec-climate-risk-disclosure-rule/] SEC’s rule has widespread support from a diverse array of stakeholders EDF A F R Sierra Club and NRDC Major institutional investors just a small subset of broad investor support States and policymakers support Members of Congress A bipartisan group of former officials and leading law, finance, and economic scholars public interest organizations and sustainable business coalitions Together show there is widespread support
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military and populism
Populists won’t start wars. Yilmaz 22, PhD, chair in Islamic Studies and research professor of political science and international relations at Deakin University’s ADI. Previously, he worked at the Universities of Oxford and London, demonstrating a strong track record of successfully leading multi-site international research projects. At Deakin, his projects have received funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC), Department of Veteran Affairs, Victorian Government, and Gerda Henkel Foundation. (Yilmaz, Ihsan & Saleem, Raja M. Ali. (2022). “Military and Populism: A Global Tour with a Special Emphasis on the Case of Pakistan.” Populism & Politics. European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). March 1, 2022. https://doi.org/10.55271/pp0010) there are many points of disagreement between military and populists . Populists oppose wars and interventions, as they take money away from domestic programs populists propose cutting defence This makes populist leaders difficult partners for military
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energy transition won't happen
AI innovation requires heaps of energy—REs just can’t keep up. Mills ’24 [Mark P. Mills, Distinguished Senior Fellow, Texas Public Policy Foundation and Faculty Fellow, McCormick School of Engineering, Northwestern University, ”The ‘Energy Transition’ Won’t Happen,” CITY JOURNAL, 5—23—24, https://www.city-journal.org/article/the-energy-transition-wont-happen, accessed 8-13-24] innovation is followed by epic increase in energy consumption. electric car in every garage would double electricity demands especially true for AI every chip uses as much electricity as three electric vehicles appetite for chips is unlimited demand for power three times as great adding AI to Google boosts energy tenfold. transition aspirations and realities of AI are in conflict There aren’t ways to meet scale without more nat gas AI-infused datacenters shatter decoupling of growth from energy use an hour of video is greater than share of fuel consumed by a ten-mile bus ride There’s no evidence this will change energy use is result of gains in computing efficiency An “energy transition” would only restrict energy supplies the U.S. does have resource capacity to supply energy
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Trump impounding funds
Trump’s budget freeze and nominees implode Congressional stability, triggers massive controversy. Cama and Picon 1/31 [Timothy Cama and Andres Picon are reporters for E&E News by Politico. “The fight over spending just got a lot more complicated.” 1-31-25. https://www.eenews.net/articles/the-fight-over-spending-just-got-a-lot-more-complicated/ GMU NR] Constitutional crisis At the core of controversy is a dispute likely to play throughout Trump’s time in office whether the president can refuse money for programs he doesn’t like Trump got in trouble for impounding funds which led to his impeachment The president ran against Impoundment Control Act
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Affect scale and utopia
Affect doesn’t scale up to material transformation David Sergeant 18, Lecturer in English, University of Plymouth, School of Humanities and Performing Arts, University of Plymouth, “Representing the Planet: Affect, Scale and Utopia,” Novel: A Forum on Fiction, https://pearl.plymouth.ac.uk/handle/10026.1/12724, [inserted “might” after to “might medium” because I believe “might medium” is a typo; alteration denoted by brackets] scalar problems are built into the existent world exposing collective affect as an empty lyricism when modelled as pre-subjective intensities , affects act as a scalar solution one and many both in themselves This underlies transformative role theories ‘ don’t answer the question of how human nature can be transmuted making it available to narrative and history fluency is inevitably lost the question remains as to what medium into a different kind of future and up the chain of scale .
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carbon asset plummet
Those investors currently perceive that meaningful climate action is incredibly unlikely. Unanticipated change spurs rapid stranding as the value of carbon assets immediately plummets, which ripples across the financial system and causes recession Martins and Hendry 24 – Senior Research Fellow in Economics at the Global Priorities Institute at the University of Oxford, Professor at Imperial College London, PhD and M.A. in Economics from the University of Minho; Co-director of Climate Econometrics, Senior Research Fellow, and Professor of Economics at Oxford University, former President of the Royal Economic Society, PhD and MSc in Economics from the University of London, holder of 8 honorary doctorates. inefficiently pricing climate risks creat a carbon bubble’ Investment s are starting to retreat from fossil fuel the timing and speed of transition could lead to sudden unanticipated adjustments expectations about policies contribute to transition risk by prompting reassessment of assets disorderly transition will result if investors fail to anticipate climate policies precipitating large falls in values These will be amplified by interconnectedness of the financial system workers may be stranded’ falling property values lead to widespread mortgage defaults creating another Great Recession
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avoids the link
The counterplan alone facilitates a gradual shift, avoids the link. Nkwaira and Poll 23 – Professor at the University of South Africa. Former CEO of Impact Africa Investing Academy. Doctor of Business Leadership from the University of South Africa. the reasonableness in determining capital adequacy would be built on a better determination of a carbon countercyclical buffer Due to current and future stranding, th essence of the framework demonstrates its capacity to aid in financial stability by addressing systemic risk stemming from stranded assets investors’ interest in exposures should be considered the possibility of unexpected devaluations of assets would require that the minimum never be set at 0%.
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Cointelpro era government co-option
Agent provocateurs turn alt solvency – materializes in Cointelpro-era government co-option AND deters public support Gunderson et al. 23 [Ryan Gunderson is an Associate Professor in the Department of Sociology and Gerontology and Affiliate of the Institute for the Environment and Sustainability at Miami University. William Charles is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Sociology and Gerontology at Miami University. (2023). A sociology of “climatage”: the appeal and counterproductivity of property destruction as a climate change strategy. Environmental Sociology, 9(4), 398–408. https://doi.org/10.1080/23251042.2023.2234648, JKS] it is worth noting agent provocateurs who infiltrate protests and movements push for property destruction and violence because they know these will decrease public support and increase the state repressive responses COINTELPRO and similar movements strategically encouraged Civil Rights activists to abandon nonviolent tactics In 2023, the FBI infiltrated a Denver chapter of B L M and encouraged guns and violence property destruction increase public awareness and decrease public support In six experiments, property destruction reduced support for the movement’s cause Despite nuances property destruction decrease support mass politics is required to address climate change Public opinion matters because the success of movement goals depends on participation and support
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technology led climate change
LCERC solves the aff, avoids the net benefit and picking winners Isabel Galiana 12, Professor of Economics at McGill University; Christopher Green, Professor of Economics, School of Environment, McGill University; and Jeremy Leonard, research director at the Institute for Research on Public Policy, July 2012, “A Technology-Led Climate Change Policy for Canada,” https://web.archive.org/web/20120824111414/http://www.irpp.org/pubs/IRPPstudy/IRPP_Study_no34.pdf gap between invention and commercialization is the “ valley of death ” because of difficulty of finding private financing LCERC should fund r esearch testing, demo and scalability would bolster reducing downstream subsidies that have proven costly and ineffective LCERC outside government budget managed by private and government officials use a panel of experts This minimizes picking-winners and “locking-in inferior, discoveries, and free of political influence LCERC would assuage concerns of observers skeptical about a government role in innovation
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counterplans must be competitive
Philosophical competition --- if we have a DA than it’s not arbitrary locus Steve Mancuso 81, “Counterplans Must Be Competitive”, Original Source: Wake Forest University Debater’s Research Guide, “Alternatives in Education: Stagnation or Renewal”, 1981 philosophical competitiveness counterplan are philosophically incompatible should not be simultaneously negative translate philosophical difference into a meaningful disadvantage a net benefit standard without requiring a disadvantage, would permit arbitrary philosophical distinctions negative demonstrate philosophical disadvantage
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Michael J. Albert
Attention to the concrete details of different political strategies is necessary. We should pay attention to how effective and realistic a strategy is, not merely whether an idea is good in the abstract. Michael J. Albert 23, lecturer in International Relations at SOAS University of London, 28 July 2022, “Ecosocialism for Realists: Transitions, Trade-Offs, and Authoritarian Dangers,” Capitalism Nature Socialism, vol. 34, no. 1, pp. 12-27, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10455752.2022.2106578. Ecosocialists demonstrate capitalism is incapable of resolving climate crises they devote little attention to how ecosocialist transitions take place theory limited by utopian tendency Contemporary ecosocialists particularly degrowth produce idealistic visions with little analysis of dynamics that enable these visions to be realized we need a more “ realist approach that brings systematic attention to transition pathways conditions that make them attainable in the time-frame needed utopianism creati inspiring yet detached proposals with no analysis of how we get from here to there developing plausible scenarios that guide concrete praxis is one key challenge for ecosocialists lest we be guided by leaps of faith with minimal grounding A useful step is the Green New Deal a transitional platform that works with current tendencies and create longer-term conditions for more radical transitions Given intransigence of emissions-intensive consumption practices in a context of rising rightwing populism how might degrowth win popular majorities the project is nowhere near the support it needs a more measured utopianism” that highlights limits more capable of inspiring belief in new worlds . We won’t get utopia but we will witness dramatic changes proactive anticipation is essential , lest we find ourselves
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intentional extinction makes rebuilding inevitable
It would give cause for intentional extinction AND if not, makes rebuilding inevitable. Bostrom 19, Ph.D., Professor in the Faculty of Philosophy at Oxford University, Founding Director of the Future of Humanity Institute (Nick Bostrom, 2019, “The Vulnerable World Hypothesis,” Global Policy, Vol. 10, No. 4, University of Kansas Libraries, Wiley) Metal is synonymous with civilization glass remain scattered Batteries and magnets could be stashed away cities be destroyed by nihilists or folk who want to ‘ see what would happen ’ by nuclear fallout societies split into civil wars with nuc s , producing famine and pestilence Even then insight would be passed down generations If civilization began to rise from ashes knowledge would wait , ready as soon as people learned again to make glass and electric generators even if forgotten be rediscovered
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Trump win collapses alliances nuclear war
Trump win collapses alliances and escalates all hotspots – nuclear war. Rhodes 24 (Ben, served as U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser for Strategic Communications and Speechwriting in the Obama administration https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/biden-foreign-policy-world-rhodes , July/August) second Trump pursue politically motivated shortcuts Taliban pulled out of Iran unshackling nuclear program escalating proxy war emboldened Israel tough line with China was episodic and embracing Kim enabled No Ko to advance nuclear programs maximum pressure fueled humanitarian crises fewer guardrails strongman nationalism create permission structure for aggression. withdrawal of NATO embolden Putin Kim could ratchet up provocations China ready for invasion of Taiwan
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climate regulation technocrats
AFF aligns risk across the market causes cascasing failures worse than case Katz 23, Analyst for the Manhattan Institute and senior advisor at the United States Department of the Treasury (Dan Katz, November 16, 2023, “Financial Regulators: Seers Who Cannot See,” City Journal, https://www.city-journal.org/article/financial-regulators-seers-who-cannot-see) The assumption behind climate regulation is technocrats can anticipate risks This is farcical regulation is governed by assumptions about asset classes’ riskiness that will prove incorrect technocrats standards for risk miss basic truth prescriptiveness of regulation tends to intensify instability . Systems with diversity show resilience in crisis regulators worsen systemic vulnerability . When a shock comes banks will share vulnerability unleashing a cascade
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Court undermine EPA solution
4. Potential court strikes decimate future solvency, past cases prove Mark Sherman 24, associated press and graduate from Princeton and UC Irvine Law, “Supreme Court halts enforcement of EPA’s plan to limit downwind pollution from power plants” PBS, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/supreme-court-halts-enforcement-of-epas-plan-to-limit-downwind-pollution-from-power-plants justices in a 5-4 vote rejected arguments that the plan was cutting air pollution The Court reined in the powers of federal agencies including the EPA restricted the authority to fight water pollution decisions have undermined the EPA’s aim of providing a solution
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BCA too simple
BCA is useless – too simple and it will be gamed, too complex and it can’t be administered Morris 18 [Adele C. Morris, senior fellow and policy director for Climate and Energy Economics at the Brookings Institution, Ph.D., Economics, Princeton University, M.S., Mathematics, University of Utah, 7-26-2018, “Making Border Carbon Adjustments Work in Law and Practice” Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center] BCA superficially appear intuitive within design lurks a thicket of pitfalls headaches , and unintended consequences solution will likely elude us policymakers can only hope to anticipate some of the myriad ways actors will game the system measures to deter gaming complicate administration And approaches that simplify admin inevitably over- or underprice emissions from some
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material help needed
Focus on ableist ideology and discourse cedes the political – concrete politics to address social disadvantage are key Vehmas and Watson 14 (Simo Vehmas – Professor of Disability Studies at the University of Helsinki, and Nick Watson – Professor of Disability Studies at the University of Glasgow, “Moral wrongs, disadvantages, and disability: a critique of critical disability studies,” Disability & Society 29(4):638-650, accessed 5-10-16 //Bozzles the Bozz-Dawg Bozz Bozz) CDS has argued for a new political identity where solidarity incorporates multiple voices if disability and impairment are deconstructed into a kaleidoscope of shifting identities’ and discourses , there will be no disabled people left to fight for the right to be suggestions that impairments are ethically and politically neutral differences are false CDS runs the risk of dismissing personal experiences of living with impairment but also differences between socially created disadvantages that result from oppressive social arrangements disabled people require more than recognition they need material help targeted resource enhancement and personal enhancement Whilst differences can be presented as the result of dominant ableist discourses this does not solve the problem ideological change is of little use if it does not result in material change
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Eisen virtual energy
Getting a VER on the wholesale market is entirely theoretical---counterplan is the key first step. Eisen – AFF SOLVENCY ADVOCATE et al 24 [Joel B. Eisen, Professor of Law, University of Richmond School of Law Felix Mormann, Professor of Law, Dean’s Research Chair, Texas A&M University School of Law; Professor of Engineering, Texas A&M College of Engineering Heather E. Payne, Professor of Law, Seton Hall University School of Law, “VIRTUAL ENERGY”, University of Illinois Law Review, pp. 107-162 (2024), https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4386321] extensive opportunities for virtual energy production not exist at present creating them present many issues to be sorted out where VER serve everyone would require regulatory means for overseeing sales only exists in theoretical realm
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Rhetorical Federalism
Bargaining. Perm vaporizes opposition both by preempting the condition AND aligning the states with the fed. Elizabeth Leonard 10. Professor of Law at the University of Kansas and Visiting Professor of Law at the University of Georgia, J.D. from the University of Georgia; Hofstra Law Review, “Rhetorical Federalism: The Value of State-Based Dissent to Federal Health Reform,” vol. 39 Uncoop suggests states actively refuse states should either serve as rivals or allies the affirmative case for challengers recognizes value of friction and jarring Coop by contrast , envisions working together Friction fosters dialogue accountability participation Uncoop prefers ongoing conflict sparking beneficial resistance But if states freely decline little remains while states that bargain have objections appeased
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carbon tax normative
No link---a tax is only a nominal MBI. Komanoff and Delucchi 20, *Director of the Carbon Tax Center, A.B., Applied Math, Harvard University, **Professor at University of California, Berkeley (*Charles Komanoff, **Mark Delucchi, October 8, 2020, “The main value of a carbon tax is normative.” Carbon Tax Center, https://www.carbontax.org/blog/2020/10/08/the-main-value-of-a-carbon-tax-is-normative/) [[Email screenshot text]] a carbon tax says climate is bad ; identifies who is responsible and creates penalties in proportion It undercuts bullshit about wondrous “free” markets the left denigrate a “ market measure ” taxes are the opposite to attack capitalism
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smart city ethical implications
There’s no such thing as ‘smart city innovation.’ Ziosi et al. 22, Marta Ziosi, Ph.D. candidate at the Oxford Internet Institute, Co-Founder of AI for People, M.Sc. in Philosophy and Public Policy from the London School of Economics; Benjamin Hewitt, M.Sc. in the Social Science of the Internet from the Oxford Internet Institute; Prathm Juneja, Ph.D. candidate at the University of Oxford, M.Sc. in Social Data Science from the Oxford Internet Institute; Mariarosaria Taddeo, Associate Professor and Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Internet Institute, Ph.D. in Philosophy from the University of Padua; Luciano Floridi, Professor of Philosophy and Ethics of Information at the University of Oxford, Director of the Digital Ethics Lab at the Oxford Internet Institute, Ph.D. in Philosophy from the University of Warwick, “Smart Cities: Mapping their Ethical Implications,” Oxford Internet Institute, 01-10-2022, https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4001761 smart city expressed by jargon as well as tension behind tech and human-driven conceptions tech is insufficient without lifestyle changes and policies to restore ecosystems ambiguity may be ev of lack of sound theorising reflects different perspectives depending on where one is changes depending on scale readiness for change, resources and citizens politics history, and geography bring to light hidden tensions and divergences elusive dynamics undermine any overarching, ethical aspects
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drone warfare extinction
Extinction Dr. Michael J. Boyle 13, Professor of Political Science at La Salle University, Former Lecturer in International Relations and Research Fellow in the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at the University of St. Andrews, “The Costs and Consequences of Drone Warfare”, International Affairs, Volume 89, Number 1 76 countries have UAV tech including Russia , China , Pakistan and India A global arms race for drone tech is already under way With demand growing, a number of states have begun the aggressive selling attack drones Great Powers driven by nuclear deterrence overt confrontations between nuclear powers are rare drone surveillance is low cost, and deniable. States engage in ‘salami tactics’ drones erode deterrent relationships between nuclear powers, thus magnifying the risks of a spiral of conflict between them. Drones are prone to accidents and crashes an accident or crash will spiral out of control and lead to an armed confrontation to develop internationally recognized standards and norms ensure their use and sale are , regulated
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Tamdgidi 2015
These practices are not neutral – they are part of a process of Islamophobia in which the Islamic tradition is positioned as inferior and violent while Western epistemologies are represented as “truth”. Tamdgidi, M. (2015). ISLAM : From phobia to understanding. (Vol. VIII). Ahead Publishing House . Non-Western epistemologies are considered inferior and excluded from the global conversation Islamic philosophy portrayed as inferior the logical consequence is that they should be repressed Muslims can be part of the discussion as long as they stop thinking as Muslims Any Muslim that think these questions from within Islamic tradition is suspicious of fundamentalism Today experts in the West talks with authority about Islam, with no knowledge of the Islamic tradition stereotypes and lies reported over and over believed as Truth
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energy policy relevance erodes sustainable planning
Adhering to hegemonic regimes of energy policy relevance erodes sustainable planning, crowds out democratic control of the energy sector, and locks in global ecological catastrophe. Endorsing counterhegemonic politics against the AFF’s “regime of truth” is a prerequisite for effective energy politics. Żuk & Żuk 22 – Piotr Żuk, professor of sociology and president of the Institute for Sustainable Development and Renewable Energy Foundation at Wroclaw University; Pawel Żuk, assistant professor in the Department of Sociology and Social Policy and Faculty of Economics and Finance at Wroclaw University, February 2022, “Energy/power as a tool that disciplines and reproduces the energy order and as a critical-analytical perspective on energy policy,” Energy Policy, 161(112750), pp. 3-6, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112750, mcb Energy is the main pillar of the nation-state political dimension of energy becomes visible in crises state administration is usually subordinated to logic of the capitalist system energy/power sets development goals global scale ; models are not neutral recreates forms of ownership using knowledge related to prevailing energy tech states , imposing rules making participants dependent Freeing would mean establishing mechanisms make it difficult to treat energy as capital diminish the importance of states State media corporations reproduce ideas about directions of development with interests of energy stakeholders discourse on ecology and policy the work of models is t foreclos questions of reducing demand or adoption of efficiency measures discourses that shape public opinion promote economic nationalism defend hegemony of energy suppliers dominant discourse use concepts of sovereignty security as elements of manipulation to justify control current energy order preserved at the level of discourse perpetuates narrative natural resources as profit ways of communicating about energy perpetuate belief systems can be changed while sustaining existing social relations refer to free market ideology justifies less oversight public discourse on energy turn citizens into passive consumers freeing citizens means replacing passive consumers with active citizens the energy system can be used to control individuals a means of power inscribed in regimes of truth individual values and beliefs take on political meaning behaviours subordinate to the system inscribed in bio-power The more bureaucratic the existing system is, more abstract and uncontrolled it is the internalised knowledge element of permanent control the state closes citizens within laws and regulations market lulls social vigilance neutralises involvement in public affairs the market colonise natural resources with impunity the state and market form tactical coalitions profit has become main criterion for assessing corporate policy oil companies are powerful actors which influence geopolitics
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Tenorio 2024
The JUMP is a better analytic to undo the political forms produced by antiblack desires Tenorio 24 (Sam C. Tenorio (he/they) is an Assistant Professor of African American Studies and Women’s, Gender, and Sexuality Studies. He received his Ph.D. and M.A. degrees in African American Studies, with a subfield in Political Theory, from Northwestern University and a B.A. in History and Women’s Studies Jump Black Anarchism and Antiblack Carcerality Sam C. Tenorio · 2024 NYU Press 9781479828296, https://www.google.com/books/edition/Jump/Bb70EAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=0) Which fear is greater, the fear of the pain we know or the pain we do not? politicality of jumps rests in the practice rather than the desire, of death mobility, and destruction that confronts the system of enslavement . not to disavow the desire but to consider how jump refuses its political form . methodological approach is dictated by the archive of slavery itself Black anarchist lens distrusts the sense of agency stamp of "self-destruction runs counter to conditions of compulsion and coercion
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supremacist relations facing our finitude
Fossil civilization’s fear of death precludes hospitality, making it impossible to cultivate existential affirmation. James Rowe 23. [Associate Professor of environmental studies and cultural, social, and political thought at the University of Victoria. His interdisciplinary research program is motivated by a desire to understand and strengthen social movements working toward social and ecological justice. “Practice for a Just, Livable Future” in Radical Mindfulness: Why Transforming Fear of Death is Politically Vital. Set to be published in October, 2023. Taylor & Francis Group. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/edit/10.4324/9781003406181/radical-mindfulness-james-rowe]//dawn Acknowledging death means accepting This can only promote life Denying death only brings more death distributed across axes of power crystallized by climate crisis will make life difficult. With hospitality under threat , harder to cultivate existential affirmation Higher fear increase fuel for supremacist relations facing our finitude is necessary Just because something is finite doesn’t mean it isn’t wonderful Despite finitude and fossil capitalism affirmation of basic goodness can support more just worlds
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cutting commitments simplifies challenge
B. Decline maintains deterrence while preventing aggression. MacDonald and Parent 18 - Paul MacDonald is Associate Professor in Political Science at Wellesley College. Joseph M. Parent is an associate professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame. declining powers use retrenchment to shuffle resources Rather than fritter forces maintaining a sprawling perimeter great powers focus on crucial commitments credibility of security guarantees will be amplified adversaries understand which interests a declining power values Cutting commitments simplifies challenge they have fewer adversaries
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carbon tariffs Ukraine tensions
Carbon tariffs divide allied approaches to Ukraine. Young & Bakst ‘23 [Ryan Young is a senior economist at the Competitive Enterprise Institute; Daren Bakst is Director of the Competitive Enterprise Institute's Center for Energy and Environment and a Senior Fellow. "Carbon tariffs will hurt trade, national interests, and consumers", Washington Examiner - Political News and Conservative Analysis About Congress, the President, and the Federal Government https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/2579058/carbon-tariffs-will-hurt-trade-national-interests-and-consumers/ published 7-25-2023, accessed 1-11-2025] there’s the timing . Squabbling raises tensions among allies at time of fear of Ukraine Liberal countries need to form alliances tariff give free countries excuse to fight among themselves instead of showing united front against Putin Biden’s Pause To Be Lifted Trump has pledged to end the “pause as one of his first acts and has promised to speed up permitting the pause in the rearview mirror ” by 2025 pause looks like little more than a speed bump it was limited to few projects the planning stages ; it didn’t affect large terminals Biden will not change export policy at all . this will have been a blip It depends on the election
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Cara Judea Alhadeff
And so we ask the question, ‘Clean energy’ for whom? Alhadeff 23 [Cara Judea; Professor of Transdisciplinary Ecological Leadership, has published dozens of interdisciplinary books and articles on critical philosophy, climate justice, art, epigenetics, gender, sexuality, and ethnic studies, “Equality as Industrial Capitalism’s Trojan Horse: Environmental Racism, Green Colonialism, and The Renewable Energies Revolution”, L. Weir (ed.), Philosophy as Practice in the Ecological Emergency, Sustainable Development Goals Series, (https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-94391-2_8), 2023 // Makinde] alt forms of energy are misidentifed under clean clean For whom There is no clear division between clean energy and dirty energy well-intentioned alternatives ultimately conserve the original crisis Western imperialism continue to dominate global relations Solar use exorbitant resources displac human populations and require carbon-intensive concrete dams have had cataclysmic effects on indigenous peoples fine particulate pollution harms African-American communities more the electric vehicle displaces costs of environmental racism exported into Bolivia Cobalt is mined in the Congo environmental costs are habitat destruction, child slavery, and death e-waste dumped throughout Africa Even if we find alternatives to fossil fuels renewable energies maintain our addiction to consumption The new world will look exactly like the old in terms of exploitation
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Bailey 23
G—Plan is vital to accelerating green tech development Bailey ’23 [David Bailey, senior advisor, CLC and instructor, Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, “Unlocking Net Zero Emissions: Accelerating Innovation & Deployment through Carbon Pricing,” Climate Leadership Council, 3—23, p. 2-17] avoid the worst impacts we need rapid innovation and deployment of tech Only an econ -wide price, offers flexibility , predictability , and potential . carbon price: create incentives across all sectors reward all solutions price signal serves as connective tissue pulling innovative tech from one stage to the next . price creates a pull to bring tech into the market Governments play a key role in promoting because innovation decisions are driven by costs and rewards most powerful tool accelerate clean tech innovation and deployment is U.S. price on carbon . price would establish concrete and predictable benefits for companies’ research and investment carbon price unlock $1.4 trillion in new capital deployment directed at tec leaps and meaningful innovations carbon price several advantages over existing policy Reach and Comprehensiveness Speed . Predictability . Progressivity International Leverage Global progress requires U.S. innovation leadership By leveraging U.S. market , companies build capacity . attain economies of scale that reduce costs and provide tech affordably to overseas markets . pace and range of innovation by existing policy is insufficient . price adds a powerful instrument builds a platform for market - driven innovation U.S.- innovated decarbonization will be viable in developing markets
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Hoover institute classical liberalism
1NC Libecap was from the Hoover Institute---a conservative think tank. Matthew Dardet 19. "Faculty Senate debates role of Hoover Institution on campus." Stanford Daily. 2-8-2019. https://stanforddaily.com/2019/02/08/faculty-senate-debates-role-of-hoover-institution-on-campus/ Intellectually bankrupt’ Hoover alleged ideological bias a “ right-wing think tank an ideology idée fixe built into it promote economic prosperity ideas taken from classical liberalism
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Michael Prince 23
Legal reform is good in the context of disability. The Accessible Canada Act is one example of how liberal states can have a positive relationship to disability. Michael J. Prince 23, Lansdowne Professor of Social Policy at the University of Victoria, Canada, 2023, “17: The Accessible Canada Act: a political expression of disability rights as human rights,” in Research Handbook on Disability Police, Eds. Sally Robinson and Karen R. Fisher, Edward Elgar Publishing, pp. 217-230. Worldwide human rights legislation for people with disabilities is continuing Signs include most countries ratifying the UN C onvention on R ights of P ersons with D isabilities and many nations pushing the boundaries of freedoms and rights This chapter explores the A ccessible C anada A ct the ACA proactively eliminate barriers and ensure greater opportunities for Canadians with disabilities signals a more respectful and supportive relationship with government effect may be a more positive sense of self The ACA clearly imparts a discourse of equality accessibility and acceptance of differences by the state This law, and similar ones are an important element in reducing societal barriers transforming cultural beliefs and providing essential public services Disability groups actively mobilized for the ACA, an successfully influenced the law in notable ways The ACA could be the most proactive and systemic approach to date Disability activists have a continuing stake in implementation the law offers mobilization opportunities for identifying and removing barriers to access
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Texas independence is like Kurds
4---Texans view independence as a religious movement under God---they will martyr – answers their nuke analytic Downen 23. Robert Downen, Nov 15 2023. The Texas Tribune “Texas secessionists feel more emboldened than ever” https://www.texastribune.org/2023/11/15/texas-secession-texit/ ///mosuQ the Movement argues that Texas is like the Kurds, the ethnic group Texans have all the same trappings: Distinct culture history philosophies demarcated territory and a claim to self rule Biedermann running for House framed Texas independence as part of a divine plan We’re going out there in the name of God accounts with ties to Russia pushed trend of an independent California on 2016 trend seemed to be driven by activists But evidence that accounts run by people based in Russia was artificially driven
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renewables never competitive
Renewables never become competitive without a prohibitively expensive tax. Elizabeth Baldwin 20. Associate Professor of Economics at Oxford. Yongyang Cai, Professor in Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics at The Ohio State University. Karlygash Kuralbayev, Senior Lecturer in Economics at the Department of Political Economy at King's College London. With pricing , there is a of being “ locked into ” ways of producing electricity that are cheap renewables is currently expensive and may not become competitive making the sector “less competitive” through taxes is costly than through subsidies subsidies stimulate investment and the renewable sector crowds out dirty energy this appears sufficient , as well as less costly
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China green energy leadership
Topic specific solvency advocacy checks – proves they exclude core topic research and predictable neg ground – that’s the 1NC solvency ev – heres more Wiseman and Osofsky 16 [Hannah J. Wiseman** and Hari M. Osofsky* ** Attorneys' Title Professor, Florida State University College of Law. J.D., Yale Law School, A.B., Dartmouth College. * Professor, University of Minnesota Law School; Faculty Director, Energy Transition Lab; Director, Joint Degree Program in Law, Science & Technology; Faculty Member, Conservation Biology Graduate Program; Adjunct Professor, Department of Geography, Environment and Society; and Fellow, Institute on the Environment Ecology Law Quarterly, “Regional Energy Governance and U.S. Carbon Emissions”, lexis] states may combine individual emission goals into one multistate plan States would then collaborate states could establish a multistate cap existing state plans include regional carbon trading, such as the RGGI Rehighlighting Below China’s leadership has prioritized growth of green energy Clean energy investment rose 40 percent year-on-year to $890 billion in 2023, laser focus led China to dominate clean energy position China as the global supplier on which other countries rely continued flooding the market with below-market-cost products China controls 80 percent of solar supply chain the “new three” sectors , China commands 80 percent of battery cells and 60 percen t of EV market putting China in a prime position to leverage advantages against the U.S.
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environmental racism
And so we ask the question, ‘Clean energy’ for whom? Alhadeff 23 [Cara Judea; Professor of Transdisciplinary Ecological Leadership, has published dozens of interdisciplinary books and articles on critical philosophy, climate justice, art, epigenetics, gender, sexuality, and ethnic studies, “Equality as Industrial Capitalism’s Trojan Horse: Environmental Racism, Green Colonialism, and The Renewable Energies Revolution”, L. Weir (ed.), Philosophy as Practice in the Ecological Emergency, Sustainable Development Goals Series, (https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-94391-2_8), 2023 // Makinde] alt forms of energy are misidentifed under clean clean For whom There is no clear division between clean energy and dirty energy well-intentioned alternatives ultimately conserve the original crisis Western imperialism continue to dominate global relations Solar use exorbitant resources displac human populations and require carbon-intensive concrete dams have had cataclysmic effects on indigenous peoples fine particulate pollution harms African-American communities more the electric vehicle displaces costs of environmental racism exported into Bolivia Cobalt is mined in the Congo environmental costs are habitat destruction, child slavery, and death e-waste dumped throughout Africa Even if we find alternatives to fossil fuels renewable energies maintain our addiction to consumption The new world will look exactly like the old in terms of exploitation
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Elizabeth Popp Berman
The AFF’s economic style of reasoning ensures serial policy failure. Berman 22 – Elizabeth Popp Berman, Director and Richard H. Price Professor of Organizational Studies at the University of Michigan, Thinking Like An Economist: How Efficiency Replaced Equality in U.S. Public Policy, pgs. 5-10) assumptions starts with incentives and externalities models simplify causal policy stories students learn to “ think like an economist appreciation of markets as efficient allocators creat legal framework that correct for market failures economic style portrays efficiency as politically neutral centering efficiency displacing other political values ignoring politics behind efficient policy decisions NEPA Clean Air strong, inflexible rules regulatory capture policies effective pollution trended sharply downward not reflect economic reasoning externality solution price on pollution through , transformation in environmental policy turned from moral framework pollution simply externality to be priced changed political space failed to capture deep interdependence of living elements in ecological system when people of color organized to demand environmental justice when EPA responded did so by turning demands for racial justice into economic calculation of relative risk burden rethinking competing values in language of economics comes at cost of violence to originals moral imperative relegated to margins not as starting point places significant constraints on range of possibilities policymakers define as reasonable
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Nagourney 9-23-24
Sun Belt not key – Pennsylvania is key to Harris path to 270 Nagourney, New York Times national political reporter, et al., 9-23-24 Voters across the Sun Belt say Trump improved their lives when he was president setting the stage for an extraordinarily competitive contest in three key states, according to the latest polls Trump has gained a lead in Arizona and remains ahead in Georgia in North Carolina , Harris trails Trump by just a narrow margin Harris has shown relative strength in several key states across the Midwest and, most critically to her hopes of becoming president, Pennsylvania
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Tax is nominal MBI
No link---a tax is only a nominal MBI. Komanoff and Delucchi 20, *Director of the Carbon Tax Center, A.B., Applied Math, Harvard University, **Professor at University of California, Berkeley (*Charles Komanoff, **Mark Delucchi, October 8, 2020, “The main value of a carbon tax is normative.” Carbon Tax Center, https://www.carbontax.org/blog/2020/10/08/the-main-value-of-a-carbon-tax-is-normative/) [[Email screenshot text]] a carbon tax says climate is bad ; identifies who is responsible and creates penalties in proportion It undercuts bullshit about wondrous “free” markets the left denigrate a “ market measure ” taxes are the opposite to attack capitalism
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border adjustments emissions
Tax administration is simple and unlikely to provoke trade disputes. Brian Flannery et al. 18. Visiting Fellow at Resources for the Future. Jennifer Hillman, professor at Georgetown University Law Center. Jan Mares, Senior Adviser at Resources for the Future. Matthew Porterfield, deputy director of the Harrison Institute for Public Law at the Georgetown University Law Center. “Framework Proposal for a US Upstream Greenhouse Gas Tax with WTO-Compliant Border Adjustments.” 10-2018. https://media.rff.org/documents/RFF-Rpt-Flannery-Mares-Framework-rev.pdf upstream GHG tax should be assigned to Treasury and I R S most logical agency to administer border adjustment is Commerce policies may shift production to nations with less stringent policies , resulting in leakage To avoid battles between trading partners desirable to formulate policies compatible with WTO Border adjustments require emissions from upstream suppliers and facilities of manufacturer Framework does this using efficient administrative tool to track cumulative emissions first few energy-intensive steps account for vast majority of emissions This serves goal of reducing emissions without administrative burden To track cumulative emissions Framework includes information currently available and reported to EPA products imported assigned emissions based on average for firm’s production or national sector assuring WTO-compliance rebates do not exceed domestic tax and imports not subject to taxes in excess of like products does not take account of costs already imposed in exporting nation difficult to assess policies in many nations policies compatible with WTO will be essential to smooth transition
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Full year CR averts sequestration
Only a Full-Yr C.R. checks Defense cuts---averts mandatory sequestration and permits a “anomalies funding list”. N.L.I.H.C. – March 3rd – ’25 – National Low Income Housing Coalition - White House Sends “Anomalies” List to Congress as Republican Leaders Push for Full-Year Continuing Resolution – Take Action! - Mar 03, 2025 - https://nlihc.org/resource/white-house-sends-anomalies-list-congress Johnson put together a year-long CR The current CR slated to expire March 14 Without another the government will shutdown. under a full-year CR the White House may request Congress provide “anomalies,” tacked on to the level funding provided through the CR. under the F R A without a agreement the budget may be subject to “sequestration,” sequestration would disproportionately hit defense which would face a $40 billion cut . The threat to defense spending is motivating a work-around auto cuts would be “turned off” under a full-year CR .
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reconceptualise the human community
Anticipating extinction breeds empathy and entangled care. Distancing ourselves from considering extinction reifies detached elitism. Offord, 17—Faculty of Humanities, School of Humanities Research and Graduate Studies, Bentley Campus (Baden, “BEYOND OUR NUCLEAR ENTANGLEMENT,” Angelaki, 22:3, 17-25) [ableist language modifications denoted by brackets] when you consider the nuclear existential ethical challenge the matrix of modernity shut down our mind-set to respond We have chosen to ignore the facts to live with the possibility of planetary-scale suicide The question is whether we have capacity to end this logic responding is an imperative sense of care informed by pacifist and non-violent , de-colonialist approaches pervades your concern use scholarship to unsettle violence reconceptualise the human community to see how we can learn to co-survive struggle produce “ creative intellectual exchange that release new ethical energies for survival an anti-nuclear stance and post-nuclear activism requires shift in focus nuclear obliteration can appear abstract not our business this is the creation of a moral tyranny of distance you have to see through that and put energies into challenging that tyranny of distance
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Refuse settler colonial research
The alternative is an ethic of incommensurability toward decolonization – the only ethical move is to refuse settler colonial research. Tuck and Yang 12 (Eve Tuck, associate Professor of Critical Race and Indigenous Studies at the Ontario Institute for Studies in Education, University of Toronto, State University of New York at New Paltz. And K. Wayne Yang, Ph.D., Social and Cultural Studies, University of California, Berkeley, University of California, San Diego. Decolonization is not a metaphor. Decolonization: Indigeneity, Education and Society Vol. 1, No. 1, 2012, pp. 1-40, pp. 35-36 GC) An ethic of incommensurability stands in contrast to aims of reconciliation rescuing settler normalcy rescuing a settler future Reconciliation is concerned with questions of what will decolonization look like these questions need not be answered in order for decolonization to exist as a framework Decolonization is accountable to Indigenous sovereignty and futurity answers require a dangerous understanding of uncommonality that un-coalesces coalition politics an ethic of incommensurability means relinquishing settler futurity Native futures, the lives to be lived once the settler nation is gone made possible by an ethic of incommensurability you take away its finality opening the possibility of other futures Decolonization is not an “and”. It is an elsewhere.
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Global supply glut
5. China thumps Grant Smith 24 Fortune writer. Fortune, “Oil is headed for a steeper dive, and OPEC+ won’t be able to stop it,” 9-6-2024, DOA: 9-9-24, lmc, https://fortune.com/2024/09/06/oil-price-outlook-global-supply-glut-opec-production-cuts-russia-saudi-arabia/ China is showing a diminished appetite Imports dwindled to the weakest pace in two years industry officials envisage a shift away from fossil fuels
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Brill 21 carbon tax
Fossil demand is devastating for warming. Only a carbon tax can dampen it. Brill 21, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, M.A., Mathematical Finance, Boston University, B.A., Economics, Tufts University (Alex Brill, April 27, 2021, “Climate Challenges: The Tax Code’s Role in Creating American Jobs, Achieving Energy Independence, and Providing Consumers with Affordable, Clean Energy,” United States Senate Committee on Finance, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-117shrg48510/pdf/CHRG-117shrg48510.pdf) [[Images omitted]] government cannot identify every conceivable energy-saving practice a carbon tax impact demand generally reducing emissions over time. A tax would encourage efficient vehicles ; reduce miles traveled ; and drive many modest choices by consumers on energy consumption . While elasticity for electricity is small in short run it is quite high in the long run This is laudable given the risks with climate change
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Russia China conflict ICBMs
That goes nuclear. Saradzhyan 10 (Simon Saradzhyan, Director, Russia Matters Projec @ the Belfer Center, 5-4-2010, "The Role of China in Russia’s Military Thinking," Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/role-china-russias-military-thinking, accessed 2-17-2024) Should conflict between Russia and China break out Russia has gamed out a limited nuclear strike to prevent foe from overwhelming forces Russian generals developed plans for in the East Russian generals will demonstrate re solve actually increase the risk prompt Beijing to respond by launching ICBMs out of con cern
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Denning Bloomberg
Recent congressional proposals prove. Denning 24 (Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy, holding a B.A. in history from the University of Caimbridge. A former banker, he edited the Wall Street Journal’s Heard on the Street column and wrote the Financial Times’s Lex column. Prior to journalism, he was an advisor in the energy industry. Denning, Liam. “The US’s New Trade Weapon against China Is Carbon.” Bloomberg.com, Bloomberg, 18 Apr. 2024, www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-18/the-us-s-new-trade-weapon-against-china-is-carbon. Accessed 24 June 2024.)Rinehart. White House delivered Such as: Right now, our existing trade policies don’t pay enough attention to the emissions embodied in tradeable goods That’s fighting talk including against Chin proposed F P F Act would effectively impose a carbon border tax on selected imports aimed explicitly at China China reliance on coal-fired power , embedded now presents a structural weakness that can be exploited That means the energy transition comes with growing friction
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small businesses disadvantage CBAs
Calculation problems confound effectiveness Beaumont-Smith ’24 [Gabriella Beaumont-Smith, Policy Analyst, Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, Cato Institute, “Are Carbon Border Adjustments a Dream Climate Policy or Protectionist Nightmare?” POLICY ANALYSIS n. 978, Cato Institute, 7—30—24, p. 5] measuring emissions is not straightforward no standard method multitude of standards different scopes not readily observable must expend significant resources major implications for efficacy , small businesses at a disadvantage EU have already been vocal about the complexity
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Financial crises climate change
It entrenches cheaper polluting fuels and divests from green technology. João Tovar Jalles 23. Senior Associate Professor of Economics at University Of Lisbon. “Financial Crises and Climate Change.” 2023. Springer Nature. Doi: 10.1057/s41294-023-00209-7. financial crises lead to a deterioration in resilience to climate change negatively affect climate friendly investments making capital more difficult As both governments and the private sector focus on recovery shift priorities Financial crises forcing switch lower cost fuels crises make it harder to finance green projects lower capacity encourage consumption of goods with inferior environmental quality and over-exploitation In recessionary times, carbon lock-in is more likely as lower energy prices reduce economic viability
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overreliance on fossil fuels grid
High electricity prices now are caused by overreliance in fossil fuel and existing infrastructure. Accelerating the shift to renewables solves. Estes 24. [Adam Clark, Senior technology correspondent @ Vox, previously technology and politics at Gizmodo, Vice, and The Atlantic. BA History and Literature from Harvard. "The hidden reason why your power bill is so high", Vox, 8-15-2024, https://www.vox.com/technology/366885/utility-power-bill-price-clean-energy] Energy prices have been creeping up for over a decade There’s no single reason why the transition is not the driving force utilities are doubling down on fossil fuel The grid is a messy patchwork governed by a complex web of regulations by updating regulations and investing in clean energy, we can keep prices down for decades cost has outpaced the c p i Volatility in natural gas prices following invasion contributed to price increases What utilities don’t seem to be doing, is expanding the grid in a way that would benefit clean energy producers Investments cover upgrades rather than installing transmission that renewable energy sources need states leading the way to clean energy are seeing lower energy prices climate change taking a toll on the grid
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cap and trade policy induced plunge
Cap-and-trade creates a green paradox Gerlagh (gur-lak), Heijmans, Rosendahl 21. Reyer Gerlagh, Roweno J R K Heijmans, Knut Einar Rosendahl, 3-19-2021, "An endogenous emissions cap produces a green paradox", OUP Academic, https://academic.oup.com/economicpolicy/article/36/107/485/6178790. MSU-shARK cap-and-trade suffers from strong green paradox emissions increase policies risk of being severely weakened policy-induced plunge increas emissions as compared with no Deal enacted
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Long term semiconductor disruption is existential
Long term semiconductor disruption is existential. Lord 22 (Ellen Lord served as the first undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment. Prior to that, she was president and CEO of Textron Systems. She is currently a senior adviser of The Chertoff Group, where Mira Ricardel is a principal. Ricardel served as assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser. Prior to that, she was undersecretary of commerce for the Bureau of Industry and Security, Mira Ricardel, Former Deputy National Security Advisor of the United States, “America needs a robust, resilient supply chain for semiconductors”, Defense News, Feb. 2022, https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2022/02/11/america-needs-a-robust-resilient-supply-chain-for-semiconductors/#:~:text=Semiconductors%20feed%20the%20defense%2C%20medical,increasingly%20poses%20an%20existential%20threat/ [SG]) Semiconductors feed defense medical industrial control China committed to becoming dominant tech power poses an existential threat must quickly address supply chain security American soft and hard power girded by innovative technology a i machine learning quantum computing space comm s enabled by semiconductors missteps erode our technological superiority carries considerable geopolitical risks resource constraints
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Böhringer 22
Implementation increases carbon in other markets. Böhringer 22 [Christoph Böhringer, Professor of Economics at the University of Oldenburg, Carolyn Fischer, Senior Fellow at Resources for the Future, Knut Einar Rosendahl, Professor of Economics at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Thomas Fox Rutherford, Professor of Economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, "Potential impacts and challenges of border carbon adjustments", Nature Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01250-z, published 1-3-2022, accessed 6-24-2024] BCAs face challenges, leading to trade-offs between effectiveness and compliance with WTO rules under WTO law a country cannot make adjust- ments for costs that it does not impose on its own adjustment must be consistent carbon content in foreign jurisdictions is difficult to measure seems prohibitively expensive for indirect emissions have to be calculated on industry specific measures of carbon Creating country defaults would conflict with WTO Article XX a uniform metric would not provide a direct incentive to avoid emissions gives incentives to ‘ reshuffle’ emissions b c avoided by reallocating lowest-carbon production for export to countries with BCAs and leave higher-carbon pro- duction in other markets
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rising prices cause revolution
Unchecked inflation triggers global wars. Brands 22, PhD, Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. (Hal, 1-20-2022, "Inflation’s Biggest Risk Is Geopolitical Unrest," American Enterprise Institute, https://www.aei.org/op-eds/inflations-biggest-risk-is-geopolitical-unrest/) inflation could have corrosive effects on the U.S.-led order where there is revolutionary kindling inflation can provide the fatal spark rising prices contributed to the French Rev and Arab Spring Inflation is demoralizing because it makes growth meaningless It gives credence that America’s problems are at home and threatens a distracted superpower as threats intensify
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CGE models overestimate effectiveness
That estimate is prior to any implementation failure or circumvention arguments. Weisbach & Kortum 23 – Moffat Professor of Economics at Yale; Blum Professor of Law at UChicago None of these effects are captured in CGE modeling which means the models substantially overestimate the effectiveness
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China early and fast approach
China won. Flowers et. al 24 (Simon Flowers, Chairman, Chief Analyst and author of The Edge; Rory Mccarthy, Director, Power & Renewables Consulting EMEA; Gavin Thompson, Vice Chairman, Energy – Europe, Middle East & Africa; February 29, 2024, “Re-thinking energy transition supply chains,” https://www.woodmac.com/blogs/the-edge/re-thinking-energy-transition-supply-chains/ [Accessed 8-17-24])//g6 China dominated clean tech Through a ‘move early, move fast’ approach government support domestic manufacturing by playing to a scale no other country can match . China pushed mining to scour the globe for metals and has offered generous subsidies China’s renewables manufacturing has gone into overdrive. 80% of battery supply chains 97% of solar wafer production 230 GW of w s double the US and Europe combined China's surplus and costs mean its manufacturers continue to open markets overseas. Can the rest of the world compete even with incentives production costs are 70% lower than other major markets not just winning on costs producing best-in-class turbines modules and cells
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US carbon efficiency advantage
Carbon taxes particularly benefit U.S. industries because of our comparative carbon advantage Rorke & Bertelsen 20 [Catrina Rorke, Vice President of Policy, CLC and former Director of Energy Policy, R Street Institute and Greg Bertelsen, CEO, CLS and former Senior Director of Energy and Resources Plicy, National Associaton of Manufacturers, “America’s Carbon Advantage,” Climate Leadership Council, 9—20, p. 1-11] U S has a distinct carbon efficiency advantage compared to trading partners which can be leveraged into a competitive advantage with well-designed climate policy U.S. is dramatically more carbon - efficient than key competitors 3X that of China and 4X that of India BCA) would allow U.S. industries to leverage their carbon advantage and outcompete foreign production . U.S. has a similar efficiency to E U efficiency is apparent across national supply chain One lever ca strengthen competitive position of U.S. industry, enable greater ambition in domestic climate action , and encourage other countries to follow suit : ( BCA In the presence of a national carbon price that accelerates investments in low-carbon solutions and innovation , the U.S. advantage only stands to widen . higher emitting overseas production continues to win out disadvantages the cleanest producers U.S. leadership has the potential to dramatically change this – overnight price emissions will turn the existing U.S. carbon advantage into a competitive advantage . No other policy exists to unilaterally improve the competitive position of U.S. firms, reduce domestic emissions , and encourage global reductions .
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renewables require oil products
Demand is surging---the IEA underestimates AND historically’s been wrong. Al Ghais ’24 [Haitham; June 13; OPEC Secretary General; OPEC, “OPEC Sec Gen: Peak oil demand not on the horizon,” https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/general/OPEC-SG-peak-oil-demand-not-on-the-horizon.pdf] peak supply not come to pass shift to peak demand narrative repeated when IEA published dangerous commentary proven to be wrong IEA suggested gas peaked coal peaked but consumption hit record levels progress in renewables nowhere near enough renewables require oil products add to oil demand oil demand increase Even IEA sees growth consumer pushback of unrealistic net zero prompting policymakers to reevaluate supporting new oil licenses
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Hanne Svarstad climate education
8. Effective climate education must include discussions and evaluations of national climate policy. Hanne Svarstad ’21, Professor in the Department of International Studies and Interpreting at Oslo Metropolitan University, “Critical climate education: studying climate justice in time and space”, International Studies in Sociology of Education, 30:1-2, 214-232, DOI: 10.1080/09620214.2020.1855463, DA: 9/14/24, DMurph victims far away from policy-makers challenges will require responsible action a critical climate education offer students knowledge and skills that people must have in order to meet the climate crisis with responsible action aw critical pedagogy in which students learn to elaborate insights about injustices and build competence indepth research with emphasis on material conflicts This would be in accordance with ultimate goals of sustainable development a development that meets the needs of people political action is important t handle the climate crisis and students therefore need to learn to critically examine choices of mitigation
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trading mechanism enable renewable electricity
CP solves and avoids elections. Schmalensee 15 [Schmalensee, R., V. Bulovic, R. Armstrong, C. Batlle, P. Brown, J. Deutch, H. Jacoby, R. Jaffe, J. Jean, R. Miller, F. O'Sullivan, J. Parsons, J.I. Pérez-Arriaga, N. Seifkar, R. Stoner and C. Vergara (2015): The Future of Solar Energy: An Interdisciplinary MIT Study. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT Energy Initiative, May (http://mitei.mit.edu/futureofsolar)] //Rochester – Ali more popular internationally to have a government agency procure renewable generating capacity centrally as the quantity of renewable generation supplied in response to a fixed feed-in tariff uncertain RPS obligations generally fall on entities that sell electricity to end users trading mechanism enable renewable electricity to be generate RPS popular in the United State that the costs of RPS programs are built into long-term contracts between utilities and generators and thus are much less visible than the explicit subsidies paid under feed-in-tariff or output subsidy schemes
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Harris momentum real now
Has flipped script on the ecnomy, but it’s fragile Knox 8—12 [Olivier Knox, journalist, “Harris Hones Her Economic Message,” U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, 8—12—24, https://www.usnews.com/news/u-s-news-decision-points/articles/2024-08-12/kamala-harris-hones-her-economic-message-to-voters, accessed 8-22-24] Voters have been sour on Biden economic record But Harris momentum is real , for now she's flipped the script candidate is ahead on the economy
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peak uranium near
Expansion = peak uranium Elliot 11 [David Elliott is Professor of Technology Policy at the Open University, “Nuclear waste- no place to go,” 2011, http://blog.environmentalresearchweb.org/2011/02/19/nuclear-waste-no-place-to-go] If a global nuclear renaissance occurs, demand for uranium will grow already shortages peak uranium’ is not far off Energy Watch Group suggest 2035 options should be kept open technological advances make recycling a better choice in the future storage facility, from which spent fuel could be removed later
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Newest polls say Harris wins
Newest polls say Harris wins Dorn 9/12 – Forbes news reporter who covers politics. Harris leads by five points in the first two major polls following Tuesday’s debate up 50% to 45% conducted of 3,317 likely voters , her widest lead yet and a improvement from her lead taken on the day of the debate A two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll found Harris leading by five points Pundits widely considered Harris to have won the debate ,
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Michael J. Albert 24
6. Structural Stagflation. Unstable rates, debt, asset bubbles, and broad financial deregulation guarantee collapse. Michael J. Albert 24. Lecturer in Global Environmental Politics at the University of Edinburgh. Navigating the Polycrisis: Mapping the Futures of Capitalism and the Earth. MIT Press. 32-35. assault on working power to rely on financial deregulation and easy credit to “sustain demand demand-deficiency lead-up to cap rely on “ abnormal financial bubbles to “achieve growth growth remained reliant on near-zero interest rates unprecedented debt and asset bubbles got worse as a result of COVID debt reached unprecedented 360% of GDP 2022 inflation shock stressors in food and energy markets peaked followed by profiteering by corporations inflation-fighting remains dominated by hikes risking recession instability , and misery turbulence take the form of debt crises and financial collapse a real devaluation of financial assets through crisis reemergence of inflation may signify shift rather than a blip the worst period of stagflation the world has ever seen
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state action avoids politics
Leads to federal follow on AND avoids politics Nicholas Bianco 20. acting deputy director for WRI United States. He previously served as director of regulatory analysis and strategic partnerships at the Environmental Defense Fund. In that role, he oversaw the analytical research conducted in support of the domestic climate and air regulatory team. FRANZ LITZ, DEVASHREE SAHA, TYLER CLEVENGER, AND DAN LASHOF, “NEW CLIMATE FEDERALISM: DEFINING FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL ROLES IN A U.S. POLICY FRAMEWORK TO ACHIEVE DECARBONIZATION”, https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/new-climate-federalism-working-paper.pdf?_gl=1*uo9vuo*_gcl_au*MTU3NDUyNTkyMS4xNzI1Mzc3ODc2LjE4OTA3NzAyMTguMTcyNTM3Nzk5NS4xNzI1Mzc3OTk1 a Strong Subnational Role Leveraging knowledge and experience governments have been acting for years in utilities building codes land-use planning zoning ag waste diversity of governments fosters experimentation and innovation leading to practices that percolate up to the fed Fostering a race to the top. governments compete can help push national policy forward and encourage other states to join the prolif of electricity standards Driving deeper emissions reductions when gridlock and dysfunction stymie response at the federal level Bottom-up action can spur national governments to act subnational actors functioned as a test bed for later adoption at the federal level ideology's odds ratio is 1.09 1 unit increase in liberal increases odds of RPS by 9% ratio for fossil fuel production negative and significant for all models 1 unit increase in fossil fuel production decreases odds of adoption by 27% standards require significant new reg s , funding , and admin capacity clean electricity standard subject to industry meddling , especially in purple states where mandates faced significant backlash or challenges to implementation cost of standards has been higher than one might think $530 per ton of CO2 paid by ratepayers through power prices As standards are getting more ambitious markets are fracturing , and costs are piling up Johnson won the barest of victories Any defection over trivial procedural or legislative matters could block the party's agenda Johnson is also in trouble many key votes look in spite of hi the Freedom Caucus only voted for him to make sure they could approve Trump's agenda the Freedom Caucus implicitly holds the fate of Johnson's job in its hands they've already shown they're willing to topple a speaker this group has for now set aside its differences “fighting the isolationist movement a powerful ally in Johnson Johnson was a vigorous advocate of active support of our allies Johnson communicated urgency about the d i b There is a big fight within the GOP over whether America should adopt an assertive posture abroad or whether it should retrench as spending and debt begin to crowd out other priorities We know which side Johnson is on . alliances are the key advantage over an authoritarian bloc Sino Russian North Korea and Iran that seeks to overturn the liberal order Washington must resist the anti-defense spending themes of the neo - isolationism of the Right a trend within the Republican Party to oppose aid to Ukraine not lost on allies who fear for security some allies , on the frontlines are alarmed with the potential for a cascade of nuclear proliferation there has never been greater cause for optimism about the environment we are on the cusp of tech in Energy Transportation Food and Labor enable us to solve climate change pessimism around environmental issues because folks under impression we will be stuck with old technologies we aren’t solar wind batteries heat pumps e v s autonomous driving ride-hailing precision fermentation cellular ag a i all simultaneously mitigate emissions Ninety percent of all emissions come from those sectors gets us most of the way to zero reason solving environmental problems is difficult is because it’s expensive explosion of prosperity worldwide solving challenges affordable everywhere disruptions fast IPCC names risks by warming but extinction is not chances of extinction are zero recent science shows encouraging trends world made progress on clean energy and controlling emissions clear we are not headed toward the worst-case Even with no further progress Perhaps no frame has been more debated than whether climate change poses an existential risk . there is no evidence that humanity’s existence is at stake Paleoclimate data reveal climatic fluctuations affected human evolution Overall primitive humans proved resilient under harsh climatic conditions collapse of the Atlantic meridional the biggest climate risk occurred about 14,500 years ago. there is no scenario which humanity would not provide its basic needs with technological advances An existential threat warrants virtually any intervention Climate change is often mischaracterized this way Economical policies must be prioritized copious research refutes the claim that climate change cause an increase in illnesses there is limited evidence unless the Earth cools dramatically that climate change will result in diseases becoming more common studies from Africa England and Wales North and South America to Thailand and beyond refute any link despite warming vector borne diseases have become less prevalent and deadly there is no evidence warming is causing sea level rise authors of Nature diseases have become less likely as the earth has warmed A pandemic that threaten extinction is a very small probability a survey of the G C R Conference shows the median estimate for killing 1 billion to be 5% Ord estimates probability of existential risk from a pandemic in the next 100 years to be 0.01% . assumptions underpinning scarcity are illogical due to exaggeration scarcity scholars have weak quantitative research that fail to prove the link large-N findings contradict results scarcity a force for cooperation scarcity is not strong enough to induce conflict
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definition of US federal government
‘United States federal government’ includes the government AND all subdivisions. Law Insider ’22 [Law Insider; copyright through 2022; Contract database and resource center serving over 300,000 lawyers and business owners; Law Insider, “United States Federal Government definition,” https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary/united-states-federal-government] U S F G means government and any entity exercising functions of government this includes, without limit agencies of the U S
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Beckley world politics
The structure of the international system explains conflict. Michael Beckley 18. Professor of political science at Tufts. Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower. Cornell University Press. world politics is a game of thrones sixteen cases when a rising power challenged Twelve ended in carnage the pattern is clear hegemonic rivalry sparked a catastrophic war unipolarity put this on hold wars still occur but none have the global scope or generational length of a hegemonic rivalry proxy wars killed millions and pushed to the brink of nuc Armageddon World War III and extinction were nontrivial possibilities Since the U S has not faced a rival the world has been more peaceful than ever Interstate wars have disappeared civil wars declined by 30 percent the economy has quadrupled Did humans suddenly become 20 times less violent Of course not the dramatic decline is better explained by geopolitics than sociology collapse of the Soviet Union opened the world to democracy commerce , and peacekeeping dampened conflict Faced with overwhelming U.S. military might countries decided to work within the American order war is unthinkable
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capitalist AI bad
Growth-oriented AI ensures extinction---but degrowth solves Pueyo ’18 [Salvador; October 1; Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology, and Environmental Sciences, Universitat de Barcelona; Journal of Cleaner Production, “Growth, Degrowth, and the Challenge of Artificial Superintelligence,” vol. 197, pp. 1731–1736] sustainability and superintelligence are not independent superintelligence be affected by socioeconomic context it develops Neoliberalism is a major force superintelligence aligned with capitalist markets have undesirable consequences for humanity and the biosphere Neoliberal policies are transferring decisions to markets goals are shaped by firms growth rely on earnings economic selection favor firms in which these are greater technical constraints are overcome by extreme AI goals emerge from large sets of entities subject to capitalist interaction
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tech facilitates zero fossil fuel
Capitalism is sustainable and solves warming. Hill ‘20 [Victor; 11/3/20; Financial Economist with the International Finance Corporation at the World Bank, lead writer for Master Investor, holds degrees from the University of Oxford, Institut Européen d'Administration des Affaires, and Canterbury Christ Church University; "Only capitalism will save the planet," https://masterinvestor.co.uk/economics/only-capitalism-will-save-the-planet/] coronavirus diverted attention from climate environmental groups are out-of-date advances in tech facilitated by free market are transitioning to zero-fossil fuel because it is economically viable business community understand CO2 there is respectable debate about how quickly it will cause results perfectly legitimate to question models many have questionable methodologies . Claims ten years left should be challenged climate rebels would shut down the economy cause unparalleled disruption poverty and starvation . No politician is behind that groups don’t offer real solutions to climate change the best chance to solve is market forces profit motives finance and tech Transition is already underway shift has accelerated economies of scale kicked in solar and wind outcompete coal energy storage are improving downside with extraction a cause of emissions is why there is focus on hydrogen producing zero emissions The holy grail cheap and clean could facilitate 45 percent of emissions eliminated capacity could be ramped up by SMRs gas plants phased out oil majors are here to stay they embraced CCS carbon pricing formed the OGCI a consortium to support Paris they will succeed reinventing themselves
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changing the words a person speaks does not change the feelings in their heart
Disability rhetoric doesn’t reinforce ableism and rejecting it doesn’t solve – Their linguistic focus just papers over oppression - Turns the K Pierce 2012 (Samantha Pierce, founder and Executive Director of NeuroDiversity Consulting, a firm dedicated to special needs families and educating parents and the community at large about neurodiversity, March 17, 2012, http://www.neurodiversityconsulting.org/1/post/2012/03/person-first-language-the-r-word-and-other-linguistic-gymnastics.html) there is theory which claims language creates reality. I am skeptical that acts of linguistic gymnastics make better treatment of and respect for the disabled. Unless we change attitudes it’s not going to matter what politically correct term is dreamed up to gloss over the fact that the disabled are greatly devalued problem is why anyone would think that identifying someone with their disability denies their personhood. many of the disabled themselves reject person first language politically correct language obscure clear thinking and damage the people they claim to benefit. notions of inferiority remain. euphemisms make matters worse since they claim modern thought and new enlightenment. it is respectable to be blind, although we have no particular pride neither do we have shame changing the words a person speaks does not change the feelings in their heart. It's merely a surface solution that does not change the reality of what it is to be disabled in society
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insurance premiums losses
Perception is key to Insurance---insurers are pulling out now but are carefully watching for further developments. Griggs and Reguero 21 [Gary Griggs and Borja G. Reguero. 2021. Griggs is a Distinguished Professor of Earth Sciences at the University of California Santa Cruz, where he has taught for 55 years. He received his B.A. in Geological Sciences in 1965 from the University of California Santa Barbara and a Ph.D. in Oceanography from Oregon State University in 1968. Reguero is a PhD in Water Engineering and Environmental Hydraulics from Universidad de Cantabria. "Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise" Water 13, no. 16: 2151. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13162151 -DCW] insurers are beginning to cancel or no longer insure high-risk properties Economics is beginning to lower home values As property values have continued to decline insurance companies are now looking carefully at which policies to cancel , which properties not to insure , and for those that appear to be insurable , what are realistic premiums that will cover projected losses These forces will have negative effects on insurance and loans
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carbon capture tech essential
Capitalism is sustainable otherwise transition wars. Karlsson 21 - (Rasmus Karlsson, Department of Political Science, Umeå University; 6-18-2021, Social Theory for the Anthropocene: Thinking and Acting in a Disrupted Planet, "Learning in the Anthropocene," doa: 2-25-2022) url: https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/10/6/233 Experiencing permanent scarcity conflict was endemic to pre-capitalist societies . already accumulated emissions exceeds the 1.5-degree target even if all stop today . removal will require an advanced industrial society . behavioral change remains insufficient or provokes a strong political counterreaction . countries committed to growth gain a military advantage . a collapsing economy lead to survivalist values and violence large-scale carbon capture tech appear essential use will become necessary if disaster is to be avoided
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Russian economic collapse inevitable
6--- Short-term Russian economic collapse is inevitable. Pierre-Marie Meunier 9/11. Served in the French armed forces as an intelligence officer, currently operations director of a communications consultancy, holds a double master’s degree in information/communication and international relations. “Russia is on a Slow Path to Bankruptcy, but How Slow?” 9/11/24. https://warontherocks.com/2024/09/russia-is-on-a-slow-path-to-bankruptcy-but-how-slow/ Russia faced with insoluble equation budget revenues are falling , tightened sanctions rising taxes falling hydrocarbon revenues inflation crises in employment foreign investment it will not emerge unscathed war economy soon run out of momentum Russia risks bankruptcy
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shadow banking risk
Shadow banking is huge---it controls almost half of all financial assets AND is set to increase in risk. Alexander Jones 24. Senior Vice President of Portfolio Management overseeing over $1 billion in debt financing, B.S. in Finance, "Banks’ Ballooning Appetites for Private Credit Raise Shadow Banking’s Risks to the Financial System." International Banker. 9/3/2024. https://internationalbanker.com/banking/banks-ballooning-appetites-for-private-credit-raise-shadow-bankings-risks-to-the-financial-system/ giants partner with private credit seize lending away from incumbents shadow banking are big entities command substantial market assets worth $218 trillion nearly half of all financial assets By having different models sheets governance regulatory frameworks across jurisdictions sector as risk
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oil industry PR minerals in batteries
1NC 2: Not enough minerals is oil industry propaganda. Russell Ruderman 23. Russell E. Ruderman is an American politician and was a Democratic member of the Hawaii Senate from 2012 to 2020 representing District 2. “Russell Ruderman: Dispelling The Disinformation On Electric Vehicles.” 10/16/23. https://www.civilbeat.org/2023/10/russell-ruderman-dispelling-the-disinformation-on-electric-vehicles/ cobalt is being phased out New techniques made lithium available from seawater newest battery use no rare minerals rapid advances lessening concerns same cannot be said about fossil fuels oil industry PR minerals in batteries recharged and used for years recycled and reused burning of oil requires more oil more mining let’s not lose sight of the big picture let’s assume we are mining rare minerals in destructive manner we must compare this to oil wells , pipelines wars spillage impacts are a thousand times greater is an easy choice learn to recognize oil industry propaganda
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Harris 2003 capitalist class
Alt causes transition wars---links especially hard to the thesis that people are hardwired. Lee Harris 3. Analyst – Hoover Institution. 2003. “The Intellectual Origins of America-Bashing.” Hoover Instituion. Policy Review. http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/3458371.html. the capitalist class could not be expected to relinquish control No capitalist society ever willingly liquidated itself, it is utopian to think any ever will to achieve socialism , nothing short of a complete revolution would do this means a full-fledged civil war across the globe Without catastrophic upheaval capitalism would remain completely in control
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renewables magnifies cyber risks
Renewables magnifies cyber risks. Walton 24, [Robert Walton is a Senior Reporter at Utility Dive. “Renewable energy, microgrids face growing cyber threats: FBI” https://www.utilitydive.com/news/fbi-cyber-threat-renewable-generation-microgrids-dragos/720509/]//sripad F B I warned expansion of renewable capacity increases risk of hack disrupt power generation steal i p ransom critical info Attacks rare but hackers looking to make impact target larger solar farms new defenses leave hackers with time secure by design most companies don’t do people don’t practice basic hygiene lead to threat actors gaining access strike down Chevron means recommendations spotty without enforcement
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Apocalyptic mindfulness activism
Thinking through apocalypse does not erase slow violence, it enables us to challenge it. Julia Grillmayr & Christine Hentschel 24, Visiting Professor of Cultural Studies at the University of Art and Design Linz, Ph.D. in Comparative Literature from the University of Vienna; Professor in the Institute for Criminological Research at the University of Hamburg, Ph.D. in Philosophy from the University of Leipzig, “World without Humans, Humans without World: Apocalyptic Passions in the Anthropocene,” in Worlds Ending. Ending Worlds, pp. 209-226, De Gruyter Oldenbourg, 2024, accessed 04-20-2024, https://doi.org/10.1515/9783110787009-012, DG To think through our present we must widen catastrophic threats to ecological devastation apocalyptic mindfulness is deeply engrained in present-day activism in emergency Countless others are trying to relate dire outlooks to the ubiquity of slow violence and ordinariness of catastrophe in places brutalized through slavery, colonialization, and ongoing exploitation awakening is not witnessing and experiencing but imagining how bad things might become but not only, for them it is this work with and via the end that without world is connected to without humans
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states innovate and tailor response
COVID marks a return to traditional federalism that emphasizes state authority and solves national polarization. Lane 21 – Attorney Practicing Constitutional and Regulatory Litigation, JD from University of Pennsylvania Cary Law School. Kaytlin Roholt Lane, “Federalism, Now More Than Ever”, Penn Law Journal Opinion, Summer 2021, https://journal.law.upenn.edu/issue/summer-2021/federalism-now-more-than-ever/ As polarization deepens there is a growing sense something in our political system is broken. a return to normalcy and civility might be federalism . Federalism ensure a harmonious union between states with distinct cultures and political preferences . national government has ballooned the last two decades. COVID has become a paradigm for federalism . . Our system allowed states to innovate and tailor their response a case in point for our system
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AI is a myth
--Superintelligence won’t exist. Stearn 22’ – Joseph, Independent Institute. “reviewing “The Myth of Artificial Intelligence” by Erik Larson at Harvard University.”, The Independent Review, Vol. 26, No. 4, https://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?id=1702, xx-xx-2022 errors in intelligence have led to a theoretical impasse AI paradigms that play god -like chess cannot understand basic natural-language Human intelligence requires abductive inference No one knows how to program inference inevitability is a myth this kind of AI is a dead-end track
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Leadership impact activates America’s crusader mentality
Leadership impact activates America’s crusader mentality and stokes the new Cold War with China Layne 20, University Distinguished Professor of International Affairs and Robert M. Gates Chair in National Security at Texas A&M University. (Christopher, “Preventing the China-U.S. Cold War from Turning Hot”, The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol. 13, No. 3, doi: 10.1093/cjip/poaa012) American policy makers are revisiting the First Cold War by characterizing Sino-American relations as a Manichean ideological struggle between freedom and authoritarianism Discourse matters they seek to delegitimize China’s government and create an ‘enemy image’ of China they seek to unleash America’s ‘crusader state’ mentality It is commonplace for US leaders to assert that American values are ‘universal’ Here we see offensive liberalism ’ the world is divided into ‘good’ states democracies and ‘bad’ states non-democracies The latter are deemed expansive and aggressive There is an eliminationist impulse if ‘bad’ states are troublemakers , regime change is the path to peace This elminationist impulse was on display with the Soviet Union the Russian Civil War psychological warfare’ efforts in the Baltic States a perilous threshold is crossed when competition is converted into ideological struggle Liberalism is the most potent generator of American overreaching The last thing we should want is for the relationship to degenerate into a Second Cold War .
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Bundling issues into single bill
Only an omnibus-style reconciliation bill expands visas for high-skilled immigrants Jones 1-16-2025, *visiting assistant professor of Mathematics at College of the Holy Cross. **the Sterling Professor of Social and Natural Science at Yale University. (*Matthew and **Nicholas A. Christakis, “Why Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ Is Bad for Democracy,” Wall Street Journal, https://archive.ph/Hzujt#selection-5677.0-5680.0) works in transactions customer forced to buy an upgrade package that includes other things they don’t desire The same dynamics could also appear in Trump’s proposal. Now that he has secured re-election, he needs to convince Congress to agree to policies Trump’s support to expand the H1B visa has exposed divisions Bundling these issues into a single bill could force rep s on of the aisle to vote against their preferences an anti-immigration hard -liner could vot “yes” on a bill that increases H1B visas because it also includes tax cuts