objectId
stringlengths 64
64
| query
stringlengths 5
78
| card_text
stringlengths 48
7.98k
|
|---|---|---|
02be3d3b9dac7047094e6161b36d4394e91cb344c17a02c326a6696338f53fa1 | Michael Swaine | No impact to loss of leadership.
Swaine ’21 [Michael; April 21; PhD in Government from Harvard University, director of the East Asia program at the Quincy Institute; "China Doesn’t Pose an Existential Threat for America," https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/21/china-existential-threat-america/]
supposed threats consists of Beijing’s overturning the l iberal o rder Beijing has little interest in exporting governance they want nations to copy to legitimize the system to domestic audience and banks show little desire to extend loans that will fail actual attractiveness would prove limited features undergirding China are not replicable and not sustainable given aging population corruption income inequality and that free info flows drive innovation since the 80s, not a single nation has adopted that system it is highly debatable a single global order even exists The challenge is not imagined threats Reject the specious notion China is threatening to destroy a way of life |
02082ad98be39d693ddcc3166f31eab75370f087db35a6cba929c3dd52cceb8a | Clean energy standard AFF's | FIRST. Clean energy standard AFF’s. They can specify the type source of energy.
Constellation, 2024, "What are renewable energy certificates?", https://www.constellation.com/energy-101/energy-innovation/renewable-energy-certificates-explained.html, da 8/31/24, +=
REC make renewable energy tradeable certificate includes type of fuel used |
029e8fe728de9f74587fc828754a10b1cfdcc1ef768559fac5a289cd19628de8 | cutting defense spending | Populists won’t start wars.
Yilmaz 22, PhD, chair in Islamic Studies and research professor of political science and international relations at Deakin University’s ADI. Previously, he worked at the Universities of Oxford and London, demonstrating a strong track record of successfully leading multi-site international research projects. At Deakin, his projects have received funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC), Department of Veteran Affairs, Victorian Government, and Gerda Henkel Foundation. (Yilmaz, Ihsan & Saleem, Raja M. Ali. (2022). “Military and Populism: A Global Tour with a Special Emphasis on the Case of Pakistan.” Populism & Politics. European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). March 1, 2022. https://doi.org/10.55271/pp0010)
there are many points of disagreement between military and populists . Populists oppose wars and interventions, as they take money away from domestic programs populists propose cutting defence This makes populist leaders difficult partners for military |
01a4f5379c4bb5dfefc183da42981aa4a0197e874d7011a72da8e23d8d40dded | No impact on food | No impact on food
Shellenberger 19 – Michael, Founder and President of Environmental Progress and Co-Founder of the Breakthrough Institute.
claims of crop failure ’s sci fi Humans produce enough for 10 billion people scientific bodies predict increases not declines research does not indicate a link between food insecurity and conflict Many countries face food price or resource shocks without conflict factors determining resilience are whether food insecurity is combined with other stresses it would be too simplistic to suggest it was the primary driver |
00c7935aa62769bcbb573a15ac61a39a6a0ccea12af5d94f9f6f3edfec344e57 | Damian Carrington 24 | Warming inevitable is doomerism. Scientific consensus errs aff.
Damian Carrington 24. Staff Writer, The Guardian. “‘The stakes could not be higher’: world is on edge of climate abyss, UN warns.” https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/09/world-is-on-verge-of-climate-abyss-un-warns
series of leading climate figures despair voiced by scientists must be a renewed wake-up call target not yet inevitable views of 400 I P C C |
0244833577e0d5076ad6b468a89eb14e1751b5d426f752626b2b3e8d763c7fef | decolonization requires standing in relations of equality | It’s especially true in the context of climate change.
Kerstin Reibold 23. Postdoctoral Fellow at the Good Integration project at the Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø. “Settler Colonialism, Decolonization, and Climate Change.” Journal of Applied Philosophy. Vol 4, No 4. August 2023. Pp. 635-636.
climate change makes us realize that we cannot disentangle ourselves from others internal self-determination cannot cure the unequal relations of colonial times decolonization requires standing in relations of equality that allow nterdependence it is not possible anymore to govern relations within a specified territory without also influencing other territories governance must extend to cover these relations and to structure them in a just and equal manner institutions would need reformation climate change has spurred states into collective action it requires that international system and its guiding norms are reformed points about reforms extend to the national level this move into closer relations with the settler state is not identical with a move into a society that subordinates Indigenous ontologies |
00163d3cb65ef85355be2bbb6b512f440933970077e69551479f08885cffde31 | Biden alliances | Trump will end the U.S.-led order. The second term will make the first look like a “garden party.”
Drezner 23 – Professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
Trump scrambled the network of alliances the U S had built Trump blasted allies for not contributing He threatened to exit sacrosanct agreements Trump bent over backward to ingratiate himself with Putin Xi and Kim Biden’s victory ended this bizarre behavior Biden proved willing to mobilize the CHIPS Act and I R A far ambitious Biden has been more adept at attracting allies Japan South Korea and AUKUS cemented cooperation adversaries are holding out hope for Trump’s return in 2025 Putin is unlikely to change tactics in Ukraine until after the election Putin knows Trump will help him Trump plans to scour intelligence agencies to remove officials he vilified there will no longer be adults in the room If Trump is reelected he will feel unconstrained A second Trump term would make the first one look like a party |
043cf8b35a3e1cbb5dac63f702c66daa282353f258db2817b75c27b6c38bedde | The link is cut and dry | The link is cut and dry. 1AC Robyn, says
Dorothy Robyn 22, ITIF Center for Clean Energy Innovation and Boston University Institute for Global Sustainability, 8/15/2022, “Mission, Money, and Process Makeover: How Federal Procurement Can Catalyze Clean Energy Investment and Innovation,” https://itif.org/publications/2022/08/15/mission-money-and-process-makeover-how-federal-procurement-can-catalyze-clean-energy-investment-and-innovation/
procurement represents a demand-pull tool encouraging innovation could facilitate the adoption and diffusion of clean energy tech more broadly |
02e5eb6ebfddcb8186ecf07260d08031ebbc6f239bc3630575a7102b11006d0d | American Indian racism and violence | The term “Indian” is harmful and was a term created by Colombus about AMERICAN INDIGENOUS people.
Raypole 23 (Crystal Raypole has previously worked as a writer and editor for GoodTherapy. Her fields of interest include Asian languages and literature, Japanese translation, cooking, natural sciences, sex positivity, and mental health. In particular, she’s committed to helping decrease stigma around mental health issues, 03-16-2021, "Native American vs. American Indian: Which Is Preferred?", https://www.healthline.com/health/native-american-vs-american-indian )//gom
Columbus was certain new world was India called people Indians Indian” a painful reminder of the racism, violence, theft, and decimation of their people |
035391ca7183b4905d4589c4cc96ac88eb0a96ff2e6751fd498bcd99bf88fcf6 | fazi 22 | Absent plan’s legal restraint of anti-statism, degrowth merely sustains capitalism
Fazi 22 [Thomas Fazi, UnHerd columnist and translator, latest book is The Covid Consensus, co-authored with Toby Green, “The paradox of Degrowth Communism,” UnHerd, 12-5-2022, https://unherd.com/2022/12/the-paradox-of-degrowth-communism/]
The problem isn’t the society envisioned It’s unintended consequences of their theory erroneously conflate energy and resource consumption things finite But energy bountiful anti-industrialist bias a obstacle to the massive state-sponsored infrastructure investment needed to make economies sustainable most concerning apocalyptic that either we fix everything or we’re all screwed effectively anything is justified including authoritarian interventions like Zero Covid on steroids political cover to the easiest way to reduce consumption : making ordinary people poorer pursued by elites the driving force of capitalism is not growth or profits , but power more than happy to have growth-crushing austerity degrowth want to overthrow capitalism , but actually empowering capitalist elites |
01602b859812f8947997bd0aa8eb484f9bf02cc596e5f6b9a6439193eb56b05f | failure to provide a clear alternative | 7. Failure to provide a clear alternative to hegemony and liberal foreign policy ensures their method remains insular.
Brenes 22 (Michael Brenes teaches history at Yale University. His new book is For Might and Right: Cold War Defense Spending and the Remaking of American Democracy. 12-20-2022, "American Hegemony Is Morally Bankrupt. We Need a Just Alternative.," Jacobin, https://jacobin.com/2022/12/leftist-foreign-policy-restraint-strategy-ukraine-war, JKS)
Restraint is not the end in and of itself must look to build affirmative vision relies upon international collaboration to reprioritize security threats climate change migration refugee policy poverty global health deter imperial adventures demilitarize landscape of fo po restraint will not thrive simply as critique Restraint cannot be reactive and defensive if ever there was a time when the sheer force of events should suffice to undermine a theory, it is now For the first time since the 1980s, everyone is talking about capitalism—not alterity hybridity , or the fragment, but the ubiquitous, grinding, crushing force of capital It is hard to imagine a more dramatic confirmation of the two universalisms than demands for bread, rights, jobs, and democracy secular, universalistic, and materialist demands masses of young revolutionaries called for liberty the U S and Europe experienced mass mobilizations the past five years created recognition of postcolonial theory’s shortcomings There are journals wholly committed to it, chairs in humanities departments sections in disciplinary societies book series at publishing houses , not only have lavish material resources been plowed into the field, but hundreds of scholars have built their reputations on it legions of intellectuals who have staked their reputations on this theoretical framework response to the political developments to bend and twist the theory so that it might appear capable of accommodating developments that rather directly undermine its basic propositions; and violently attack any concerted critique when scientific theories meet with even outright disconfirmation They are able to survive for long periods because of the resources that can be deployed to defend them postcolonial theory is much the same , the absence of experimental conditions makes the likelihood of rapid displacement even more remote. The times in which we live this will not happen on its own All the more reason to begin now. |
01141500469f096a2ff97dd457220e6bfb5a0f584a5630f50f3d205021492c53 | escalation dynamics unpredictable | US-China cold war goes nuclear.
Lyons 24 (, M. J. (2024) War with China: A View from Early 2024. https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Recent-Publications/Display/Article/3738629/war-with-china-a-view-from-early-2024/ (Accessed: August 23, 2024). Marco J. Lyons is assistant chief of staff for plans at US Army Pacific in Hawaii. He is a 2021 Harvard University national security fellow, a 2020 Massachusetts Institute of Technology national security fellow, and a 2014 Naval Postgraduate School graduate. His articles on military strategy, land power, and operational concepts can be found at RealClearDefense.)-rahulpenu
conventional military balance in China’s favor deterrence will weaken escalation dynamics become unpredictable To avoid losing the US will become more dependent on capabilities Beijing will interpret as highly escalatory Washington pursue more horizontal and vertical escalation Beijing will have more and better options for using nuclear weapons to dominate the escalation dynamic |
043a924ac017609054de75c31eb1f939cd8b771f1237c254c6571d375ff3b1df | balme 14 | AND solving warming.
Balme 14 , Professor at the Paris School of International Affairs, (Richard, “Multi-Level Governance and the Environment: Intergovernmental Relations and Innovation in Environmental Policy”, Environmental Policy and Governance, Volume 24, Issue 3)
policies adopted by the fed remain limited coordination remains partial , and limit their effectiveness . Decentralization is regularly advocated by studies of environmental policies decentralization allows jurisdictions to control for their own pollution empirical effects are increasingly documented decentralization allows for policies better suited for local conditions centralization has limitations : little reactivity to local circumstances limited innovation and a strict dependence on bureaucracies and top-down implementation hostility or lack of political will Territorial governments are more likely to be responsive to local circumstances local institutions may facilitate bottom-up emergence of self-governing arrangements |
0062b37dcea9c0d668314182d883da8044635e1c6dc3afd4a163121234a57ac3 | Stone and Marinescu | Voters don’t perceive benefits and are ideologically opposed to the plan
Stone and Marinescu 20, [Ioana Marinescu is an assistant professor at the University of Pennsylvania School of Social Policy & Practice and a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Andy Stone is producer and host of Energy Policy Now, the Kleinman Center’s podcast series. He previously worked in business planning with PJM Interconnection and was a senior energy reporter at Forbes Magazine. “Why Americans Want a Carbon Tax, But Won’t Support One at the Polls.” May 26, 2020. https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/podcast/why-americans-want-a-carbon-tax-but-wont-support-one-at-the-polls/]//KAK
did residents in Washington turn down carbon tax because they didn’t believe they were going to get money back in revenue neutrality that’s an important factor In our study we look at median voters the person who might have tipped that over this person seems to feel this carbon tax is going to increase my cost I don’t like it, that’s it.” They weren’t factoring in any other benefits including money or environmental benefits It’s very hard to change those beliefs try to provide people with objective info and telling them you’re going to come out ahead people weren’t impressed many people didn’t buy it I’m referring to policy digest that you published on Climate Center’s website we show that Instead, the person that voted no was ideologically anti-carbon tax , and person that voted yes was ideologically pro-carbon tax . |
0126539be40bebd5f3608329aa82a199a84d1167455ec8c8679a1d689285df04 | Second depression causes nuclear war | That goes nuclear.
Maavak ’21 [Mathew; 2021; Ph.D. in Risk Foresight from the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, External Researcher (PLATBIDAFO) at the Kazimieras Simonavicius University, Expert and Regular Commentator on Risk-Related Geostrategic Issues at the Russian International Affairs Council; Salus Journal – The Australian Journal for Law Enforcement, Security and Intelligence Professionals, “Horizon 2030: Will Emerging Risks Unravel Our Global Systems?,” vol. 9]
a Second Depression will have implications for security couplings enabled risks in one area to snowball Economic stressors induce geopolitical realignments with U S and China ripples will be felt Think of debt-laden workforce at nuclear and chemical plants with a surge in accidents catalyst behind WWII was Depression history repeats itself Balloon effects include Iran war ; US-China confrontation over Taiwan or S C S Korean prolif India-Pak nuclear war or nuclear confrontation between NATO and Russia |
03006417b196d081aa6111b312075c59db9673f17bb1ce21fcbe69d841c51491 | banks incentivize due diligence | No chance of stranded assets. Banks have sufficient buffers to cushion losses.
Skinner 21, Assistant Professor at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, J.D. from Yale Law School (Christina Parajon Skinner, 2021, “Central Banks and Climate Change,” Vanderbilt Law Review, Vol. 74, No. 5, University of Kansas Libraries, Hein Online) [[Footnotes]]
stranded asset seems remote banks have few incentives (let alone approvals from risk committees) to securitize coal it seems given growing consensus away from carbon assets, demand will be small Banks are more incentivized than before 08 to conduct due diligence reforms require banks to retain a first-loss piece of any bond they sell forces banks to keep skin in the game banks not hold sufficient carbon assets to threaten solvency the amount of capital to absorb losses is quadruple exposure at all these in 2020 oil prices fell below zero dollars solvency did not come into question even significant climate shocks cannot drastically impair asset quality I do not think even extraordinary economic conditions have much impact on war the U S has suffered 40 recessions yet fought 20 wars unrelated to the economy if recessions cause war they would have predicted nine of the last five states do not start wars unless they believe they will win a cheap victory the motivation for wars is security not economic gain Economic conditions are one factor among many and rarely the most significant |
03e39034960c3ebd902d356eed4139f7dd4532db71348c3eb737c54e84b49f0c | carbon lock in | CCS locks in fossil fuel infrastructure.
Asayama '21 – Social Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan (Shinichiro Asayama; "The Oxymoron of Carbon Dioxide Removal: Escaping Carbon Lock-In and yet Perpetuating the Fossil Status Quo?"; Frontiers in Climate, Vol. 3, Sec. Carbon Dioxide Removal; 07-11-2021; https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.673515)
CCS presented as a “bridging tech appeal was to allow continued use of fossil fuels cost of renewable generation has fallen dramatically the cheapest in many places progress in CCS stalled and not been deployed adding CCS deepen lock-in building infrastructure for capturing transporting and storing as socio-technical system requires large capital investments with long lead-times This increases infrastructural inertia for decades and make difficult transition |
01db1dd47890eb52ba3fe4a0bc98b0352f74b7fcd907ab4136e921848c1c4703 | US LNG sufficient | U.S. LNG prices are cheaper than Russia’s --- means they’re sufficient.
Stoppard 24 – Global Gas Strategy Lead and Special Advisor with S&P Global Commodity Insights, former Fellow at the Oxford University Institute for Energy Studies.
Sales of Russian gas are down Outside Europe there is scepticism surely Europe will be enticed to return to cheap gas US exports bolsters the idea Europe cannot abandon a relationship with Russia for a unreliable” US Russia never sold gas at cost By pricing below the competitive fuel , Europeans had the confidence to invest |
0062b37dcea9c0d668314182d883da8044635e1c6dc3afd4a163121234a57ac3 | Americans oppose carbon tax | Voters don’t perceive benefits and are ideologically opposed to the plan
Stone and Marinescu 20, [Ioana Marinescu is an assistant professor at the University of Pennsylvania School of Social Policy & Practice and a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Andy Stone is producer and host of Energy Policy Now, the Kleinman Center’s podcast series. He previously worked in business planning with PJM Interconnection and was a senior energy reporter at Forbes Magazine. “Why Americans Want a Carbon Tax, But Won’t Support One at the Polls.” May 26, 2020. https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/podcast/why-americans-want-a-carbon-tax-but-wont-support-one-at-the-polls/]//KAK
did residents in Washington turn down carbon tax because they didn’t believe they were going to get money back in revenue neutrality that’s an important factor In our study we look at median voters the person who might have tipped that over this person seems to feel this carbon tax is going to increase my cost I don’t like it, that’s it.” They weren’t factoring in any other benefits including money or environmental benefits It’s very hard to change those beliefs try to provide people with objective info and telling them you’re going to come out ahead people weren’t impressed many people didn’t buy it I’m referring to policy digest that you published on Climate Center’s website we show that Instead, the person that voted no was ideologically anti-carbon tax , and person that voted yes was ideologically pro-carbon tax . |
00d5477752050c0976990bd66364e70622e39960685295083d8e24a51096266b | framework excludes black debaters | 3---Exclusion DA---the NEG’s fear that the K- AFF will ruin debate is anti-black and the same fear that motivated the PRL or Fishback---framework is a way to redline K teams out of the community---they’re a grid of exclusion that attempts to exert humanistic control over a limitless topic and paint black theorization as a threat to debate
Dr. Shanara R. Reid-Brinkley 21, Co-Director of Forensics and assistant professor of Race and Rhetoric in the Human Communication Studies Department at The California State University, Fullerton. She is the former Director of the William Pitt Debating Union and Assistant Professor of Public Address and Advocacy at the University of Pittsburgh. Dr. Reid-Brinkley is the 2018 Don Brownlee Award winner for Teaching, Scholarship and Service awarded by the Cross-Examination Debate Association., Edited by Carl A. Grant (Hoefs-Bascom Professor of Education at the University of Wisconsin-Madison), Ashley N. Woodson (Stauffer Endowed Assistant Professor of Learning, Teaching and Curriculum at the University of Missouri-Columbia), and Michael J. Dumas (Assistant Professor in the Graduate School of Education and Department of African American Studies at the University of California, Berkeley), Routledge, The Future is Black: Afropessimism, Fugitivity, and Radical Hope in Education, Chapter 12, pages 102-104, “Debating While Black: Wake Work in Black Youth Politics,” 2021, ISBN: 978-1-351-12298-6 (ebk), Accessed: 09/27/2024, aks
Black debaters radically engage the community’s exclusion of Black participation of Black scholarship and of Black political concerns Such frees Black students to imagine radical practices of confrontation and dreams of Black futurity the federal government is always an unethical actor Framework has operated as a strategic tool of capture and exclusion of Black thought in debate This is dangerous , encouraging “ascetic tourism” by which debaters role-playing policy advocates “ tour [the] trauma without acting to alleviate the harm” Black Framework is an example of political theorizing from the hold which identifies a tactic and an exigency for disruption Black Debate is an effective training tool for political advocacy it is a jarring (re)performance of the acts of exclusion that Black debaters have faced for decades |
03b6b00f27aca136ae50613bd5a3a5c494bd15b234ffede39eae4a35746681c9 | uncertainty regarding Fed powers | Absent Chevron, bold Fed actions get challenged in court. The signal that sends shocks markets.
Paul H. Kupiec & Alex J. Pollock 24, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania; Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute, “Without Chevron, the Fed has crucial questions to address,” The Hill, 07-28-2024, accessed 09-29-2024, https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4794538-chevron-doctrine-federal-reserve, DG
agencies’ interp s will no longer be given deference Considering the Fed’s history of expanding powers demise of Chevron gives the Fed’s legal eagles lots to ponder policy questions include authority to take on balance sheet risk without approval from Congress a risk that has generated more than a trillion dollars of unrealized Fed losses international agreements and credit regulations demise of Chevron creates new uncertainty regarding Fed powers not clearly enumerated economy will face uncertain outcomes of potential judicial challenges to Fed powers |
026f4aed218d0a4497414a327cfe84b5300f57d4a64b46205c7b6fce6b2eedf1 | trade cannot prevent war | 4. Interdependence doesn’t prevent war---countries continue to trade during conflict.
Leda Zimmerman 21, Writer, editor and communications strategist, citing a paper by Mariya Grinberg, assistant professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, “Solving puzzles of international trade, war, and order,” MIT News, 10/29/21, https://news.mit.edu/2021/solving-puzzles-international-trade-war-order-mariya-grinberg-1029
trade could be conducted during conflict States do rational things Trade is mutually beneficial , and it makes sense for both sides to keep trade going The interdependence arg relies on the idea nations don’t trade during war But that’s not how it works Given the likelihood of trading in conflict the push is not toward less war but trading during war .” trade cannot be used to prevent war , because we have too many incentives to trade during war |
01f376827475428605034c2bd5dcb929b8898a0c663e2f17b6be749705eb3785 | Growth-oriented AI extinction | Growth-oriented AI ensures extinction---but degrowth solves
Pueyo ’18 [Salvador; October 1; Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology, and Environmental Sciences, Universitat de Barcelona; Journal of Cleaner Production, “Growth, Degrowth, and the Challenge of Artificial Superintelligence,” vol. 197, pp. 1731–1736]
sustainability and superintelligence are not independent superintelligence be affected by socioeconomic context it develops Neoliberalism is a major force superintelligence aligned with capitalist markets have undesirable consequences for humanity and the biosphere Neoliberal policies are transferring decisions to markets goals are shaped by firms growth rely on earnings economic selection favor firms in which these are greater technical constraints are overcome by extreme AI goals emerge from large sets of entities subject to capitalist interaction |
04600022b12dd88a826494e33276384fd5dd4d2a8c9a2ddf4f608c026e66157f | existential risk from free market | Those challenges vector existential risks---especially inequality, chemicals, pandemics and innovation
Oreskes et al 23 [Naomi Oreskes, Professor of the History of Science and Affiliated Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Harvard University, PhD Stanford University; and Erik Conway, historian of science and technology at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory at the California Institute of Technology, PhD University of Minnesota; “The High Cost of the “Free” Market,” Chapter 15, and “Conclusion,” The Big Myth: How American Business Taught Us to Loathe Government and Love the Free Market, Bloomsbury Publishing, 2023, ISBN 978-1-63557-358-9, no page #s] *[language modifications in brackets]
steps to avoid disease not rely on the private sector by then too late in a pandemic Covid proves will be incapacitated by people who restrict government power Trump’s an acceleration But goes farther underreliance on government have cost dearly endocrine-disrupting chemicals have an array of adverse effects blaming “capitalism” hides that inequality driven by deregulation innovation Nearly all from the government the state with us for the future Dishonesty and denial explain how resilient despite critique forbid fraud but permit ad s to exaggerate guard rails rest with government isn’t any other to do it amid existential threats corporations committing to social and environmental responsibility perpetuates myths makes many resistant to any governmental response , even to an existential threat And argue to rely on unregulated markets Markets are tools silly to abandon but need Regulations tools protecting our survival |
0219c14ce577863a07d43b8572d1a0e1053943107e4b68f432bd3dde09a02da6 | RPS stabilizes natural gas | No link -- RPS stabilizes natural gas generation
Avraam et al. 2021 [Charalampos Avraam, Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University; John E.T. Bistline, Electric Power Research Institute; Maxwell Brown, National Renewable Energy Laboratory; Kathleen Vaillancourt, Esmia Consultants; Sauleh Siddiqui, Department of Environmental Science, American University, “North American natural gas market and infrastructure developments under different mechanisms of renewable policy coordination” Energy Policy, January 2021; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520305723#sec6]
greater RPS coordination allows regions with low renewables to exploit the credits of their neighbors allowing for greater investment in gas-fired generation on aggregate natural gas is coordination assumptions Decrease in short-term consumption results in decrease of prices However, decrease in prices renders natural gas competitive for a longer period of time compared to other power tech thus increases consumption in the long-term RPS reduce the price increase investment in plants and mitigate the impact of RPS on natural gas consumption results reveal tradeoff between lower consumption but greater trade of natural gas |
02e0b02977f53d8eb7b19d9d51cbacbfca0c2f1ee98670a626747f29ae4f5d8b | anti-blackness resistance | Reject structural frames---it homogenizes black life AND displaces pragmatic solutions that challenge anti-blackness.
Kline ’17 [David; 2017; lecturer at the University of Tennessee, Ph.D. from Rice University; Critical Philosophy of Race, “The Pragmatics of Resistance: Framing Anti-Blackness and the Limits of Political Ontology,” vol. 5, no. 1, p. 51-69]
prioritization of political onto structure short-circuits analysis of power that reveal how racial positioning is thought and resisted in differing socio-political contexts. To the extent that Blackness equals a singular position there is no room to bring in spectrum of social difference and contingency that spans across Black identity and resisting practices sole frame flattens social difference of 35 million Black people flattening rigidly delimits legitimate political resistance there is not much room for strategizing or imagining resistance to anti-Blackness that is not limited to radically apocalyptic political violence there more pragmatic practices of resistance that should count as genuine resistance insistence on absolute priority revert to negative theological and eschatological blank horizon result is discounting and devaluing of pragmatic resistance |
03ed9ada88739ef83462c425bc838bc15d67b712f82ed1e6c866f6c89af7e3f1 | Federal action key | Federal action is key. States can’t impose border tariffs necessary for climate clubs.
Nick Martin and Dr. Jeroen van den Bergh 19. Joint European Master in Environmental Studies - Cities & Sustainability, ICTA-UAB and Technische Universität Hamburg. Endowed Professor, Faculty of Science, Environmental Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; PhD, Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. “A multi-level climate club with national and sub-national members: theory and application to US states.” Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, No. 12. 2019. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5045/meta.
Climate clubs discussions assume national actors membership could be sub-national Nevertheless sub-national governments are unlikely capable of imposing trade barriers on imports it is doubtful states within the U S could legally impose trade restrictions on other countries Article 1 section 10 prevents states imposing on foreign countries unless permitted by Congress Such actions have proven difficult and seem very unlikely by the current legislative branch |
03c8cf6b77648c856961fce68cab8c7c2c73a0b0c52111b3134577b463cae6fb | carbon tax is technically a user fee | The CP is functionally identical to the plan but isn’t a tax---it competes and revives Chevron deference.
Elliott ’19 [E. Donald; Professor of Law at Yale University and former EPA Assistant Administrator and General Counsel; 2019; EPA’s Existing Authority to Impose a Carbon “Tax”; https://law.yale.edu/sites/default/files/documents/pdf/Faculty/elliott.epa_carbon_fee.article_2019_09_49.10919.pdf; DOA: 06-05-2024; Archan Sen]
EPA could impose a carbon “tax” because a charge for carbon is technically not a tax, but rather a “ user fee .” EPA has been laboring under the misimpression that it may not impose an emission charge This conclusion is based on a opinion by the present author my opinion has been reiterated by several generations but the conclusion is wrong the purpose was to encourage economic incentive under broad Chevron authority , “if a statute does not explicitly preclude incentive EPA has the legal authority all agencies have been granted to charge user fees and keep the money The same Court that holds that agencies may not impose taxes also holds that agencies do have authority to impose user fees An extensive legal literature exists on the difference between taxes and user fees . According to the best article the essence is that “[a] user fee is a price charged for a product it controls,” whereas a tax is intended to benefit the citizenry Justice Douglas explained A fee is incident to a voluntary act one of the “ objectives ” of user fees is efficient allocation the government “controls the product it is allowing the polluter the public’s air for waste disposal and the polluter is engaged in the voluntary act of polluting a fee based on the full social costs of pollution could be sustained as a user fee rather than a tax emission charges should take their rightful place in EPA’s toolbox of instruments |
02e6b49f229ef32cea3157d7d05b7a756ff3a87339f4432a84a467849d71fed9 | racial capitalism | Topic Link—The affirmative is a greenhouse gas mitigation strategy that operates within racial capitalism which means it will result in death for black and brown people.
Gonzalez ‘21
racialized communities are being displaced not only by climate change, but also by the measures to mitigate emissions. For example, wind farms developed on indigenous lands to provide energy to Walmart In Canada, a hydroelectric dam threatens to displace indigenous peoples and replicate the sacrifice zones of carbon capitalism in the name of “green energy” forest conservation schemes undermine the rights indigenous communities to harvest plants, timber, or fish in their ancestral territories Lastly, biofuels increased food prices and incentivized large-scale land transactions in the global South that destroy forests and displace rural dwellers to make large plantations to cultivate biofuel An analysis of climate coloniality reveals the abyssal line dividing those deemed human from those deemed non-human or sub-human. those who occupy the sacrifice zones are particularly susceptible to harm due to their classification as disposable. Racialization justifies and naturalizes violence and dispossession in war zones, in resource extraction zones, in the green energy economy, and in refugee camps and migrant detention centers Klein observes: A culture that places so little value on black and brown lives will be willing to let black and brown people disappear beneath the waves, or heat. racism is state-sanctioned exploitation of group-differentiated vulnerability to premature death” |
02727c4de23a3c745bdf4c5375d015c726738b7eacb5e7ce39ed1069e1da1c9d | Deforestation decreasing | Deforestation’s declining
Pinker 18—Johnstone Family Professor in the Department of Psychology at Harvard University [Steven, February 2018, Enlightment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress, Chapter 10: The Environment, Viking, Accessed through the Wake Forest Library] AMarb
Though tropical forests are still being cut down, between the 20th century and 21st the rate fell by two-thirds Deforestation of the Amazon, peaked in 1995 , and from 2004 to 2013 the rate fell by four-fifths . environmental protection is spreading to the world quality of forests for a decade show an improvement. |
037ea871b2b39adfde4a6bbe9253e4f0890d8c8aef94005445e8d372b7b18108 | WTO disputes unlikely | Even if the plan violates, a dispute won’t be brought.
Kasturi Das. 15. Full Professor of Economics at IMTG, serving as a Member of the High-Level Advisory Committee on Trade and the Environment of the Department of Commerce at the Government of India, and was an invited Member of World Economic Forum’s Expert Group on Trade and Climate Change. “Climate Clubs Carrots Sticks and More”. Economic and Political Weekly L(34). August 2015. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281175230_Climate_Clubs_Carrots_Sticks_and_More
whether potentially WTO-incompatible measure ultimately end up under WTO scanner depend on a host of factors Many cases will never be brought Montreal Protocol likely to violate GATT as well as non-discrimination no country brought a WTO dispute against Montreal of 250 MEA over 20 incorporate trade measures there has not been a single WTO dispute |
02dc5f420b293061fb84daa95a245741072b64ca5a88feac169720ff6fa75eea | counterplan alone facilitates gradual shift | The counterplan alone facilitates a gradual shift, avoids the link.
Nkwaira and Poll 23 – Professor at the University of South Africa. Former CEO of Impact Africa Investing Academy. Doctor of Business Leadership from the University of South Africa.
the reasonableness in determining capital adequacy would be built on a better determination of a carbon countercyclical buffer Due to current and future stranding, th essence of the framework demonstrates its capacity to aid in financial stability by addressing systemic risk stemming from stranded assets investors’ interest in exposures should be considered the possibility of unexpected devaluations of assets would require that the minimum never be set at 0%. |
01cc0aebd6b4e4cf42a7f3b1a0d6d48580921115b9f0fb23465afdb137828f4a | cyberwarfare Russia Iran China | 7---Shutdown greenlights cyberattacks.
Pal 19 (Monica; 1/24/19; Engineer, over two decades of experience; TechCrunch, “Senate Dems filibuster pro-Israel bill, demand vote to reopen government,” https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/jan/10/democrats-filibuster-pro-israel-bill-demand-vote-r/; RP)
enemies don’t “ shut down .” When our centers are not monitoring threats magnify and vulnerabilities become exposed agencies are stuck in limbo . Without protection around the clock extraneous threats thrive destruction would have debilitating impact we cannot tolerate vulnerability loss of staff places a greater burden oversight and mission failure find themselves stretched beyond capabilities A loss of personnel could result in cascading deterioration the season tend to have the highest cybercrime criminals ramp up activity Cyberwarfare has taken center stage No Ko Russia , Iran and China rely on cyber as their most dangerous weapon hostile states salivate at the shutdown |
0197b3b8703bf87a8e3c1d9c39a44c36e6fa2b1f59fb2e8e6c4c9153fc90d5df | Legal reform disability good | Legal reform is good in the context of disability. The Accessible Canada Act is one example of how liberal states can have a positive relationship to disability.
Michael J. Prince 23, Lansdowne Professor of Social Policy at the University of Victoria, Canada, 2023, “17: The Accessible Canada Act: a political expression of disability rights as human rights,” in Research Handbook on Disability Police, Eds. Sally Robinson and Karen R. Fisher, Edward Elgar Publishing, pp. 217-230.
Worldwide human rights legislation for people with disabilities is continuing Signs include most countries ratifying the UN C onvention on R ights of P ersons with D isabilities and many nations pushing the boundaries of freedoms and rights This chapter explores the A ccessible C anada A ct the ACA proactively eliminate barriers and ensure greater opportunities for Canadians with disabilities signals a more respectful and supportive relationship with government effect may be a more positive sense of self The ACA clearly imparts a discourse of equality accessibility and acceptance of differences by the state This law, and similar ones are an important element in reducing societal barriers transforming cultural beliefs and providing essential public services Disability groups actively mobilized for the ACA, an successfully influenced the law in notable ways The ACA could be the most proactive and systemic approach to date Disability activists have a continuing stake in implementation the law offers mobilization opportunities for identifying and removing barriers to access |
042df21df0fb9322ef2eff8e76038e6e81ce89997612b8fab306fff199d97d76 | technology superiority is key | Technology is critical to retaining deterrence in an uncertain military era.
Jim Talent et al 19, Senior Fellow, Bipartisan Policy Center, Former U.S. Senator (R-MO), Robert O. Work, Distinguished Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security, Former Deputy Secretary of Defense, 12/3/19, "The Contest for Innovation: Strengthening America’s National Security Innovation Base in an Era of Strategic Competition", Report of the Task Force on 21st-Century National Security Technology and Workforce, The Ronald Reagan Institute, https://www.reaganfoundation.org/media/355297/the_contest_for_innovation_report.pdf
U S competition will revolve around tech superiority between The outcome will determine whether a free and open system will remain Russia and China seeks to reestablish global power to weaken the U S alliances China’s challenging the U S in every region of the world. the mission is to deter a great-power war and, if deterrence fails, to prevent escalation An important key is military–tech superiority . the conventional overmatch the U S has relied upon is eroding If this continues deterrence will fail, leaving the U S to face armed conflict |
01ed88336a54877e273372adba5cf826209b05807c139175e74c141ccefa378d | Sinn 2012 | Plan triggers the Green Paradox.
Sinn, ’12 – Former President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research, German economy ministry’s advisory council, Professor Emeritus of Economics and Public Finance at the University of Munich (Hans-Werner Sinn; “The Green Paradox: A Supply-Side Approach to Global Warming”; The MIT Press; https://muse.jhu.edu/book/22137; 2012; NC)
entire extraction path will change If resource owners know future they will exploit deposits before They will explor new deposits and extract as soon as they can . Extracting earlier increase supply deposits will be burned earlier reinforcing g h effect Announcing future reduction speeds up global warming |
004fbfd8c067ff536e7b4be7d8d8a7ff9f9ed05cdb5c9d74d40ddb868b286c21 | Romanticizing Natives ecologically pure | Noble Savage DA-Romanticizing Natives as ecologically pure is a settler trick used to recreate the myth of the noble savage. Indigenous people use markets too.
Gilio-Whitaker 17, Policy Director and Senior Research Associate at the Center for World Indigenous Studies, and is an award-winning journalist at Indian Country Media Network. With a bachelor’s in Native American Studies and a master’s in American Studies, Dina’s research interests focuses on Indigenous nationalism, self-determination, environmental justice, and education. For the past several years has been involved with Indigenous peoples’ participation in the United Nations arena. (Dina, “The Problem With The Ecological Indian Stereotype,” KCET, https://www.kcet.org/shows/tending-the-wild/the-problem-with-the-ecological-indian-stereotype)//BB
Native Americans are original environmentalists to apply the blanket statement is to overlook meaning of environmentalism and mischaracterize Native peoples’ actual relationship to land creates impossibly high standard exposing Native peoples to dangerous objectives when they fail to meet In settler imagination Native had to be less than human to justify incursions into Indian lands safely disappearing noble savage enshrined into romanticized narratives ecological Indian is part of American cultural landscape when disaffected American youth waking up to spiritually and morally bankrupt society looked to indigenous peoples for answers intensely romanticized savage Indian was redeemed became the symbol of renewed hope possibility to return to a simpler and more honorable past trope symbolizes idealized fictitious appeal to lost purity Native nations have complex land management practices these facts were systematically ignored part of patterns of erasure, genocide, and dispossession |
046941c0d247e1837dfdffc011a0233ea621f417c335162616a6fac16e5ac732 | Agent provocateurs turn alt solvency | Agent provocateurs turn alt solvency – materializes in Cointelpro-era government co-option AND deters public support
Gunderson et al. 23 [Ryan Gunderson is an Associate Professor in the Department of Sociology and Gerontology and Affiliate of the Institute for the Environment and Sustainability at Miami University. William Charles is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Sociology and Gerontology at Miami University. (2023). A sociology of “climatage”: the appeal and counterproductivity of property destruction as a climate change strategy. Environmental Sociology, 9(4), 398–408. https://doi.org/10.1080/23251042.2023.2234648, JKS]
it is worth noting agent provocateurs who infiltrate protests and movements push for property destruction and violence because they know these will decrease public support and increase the state repressive responses COINTELPRO and similar movements strategically encouraged Civil Rights activists to abandon nonviolent tactics In 2023, the FBI infiltrated a Denver chapter of B L M and encouraged guns and violence property destruction increase public awareness and decrease public support In six experiments, property destruction reduced support for the movement’s cause Despite nuances property destruction decrease support mass politics is required to address climate change Public opinion matters because the success of movement goals depends on participation and support |
01acd7fc42df041c58f93710b2fb0fd9c1fa5c04c54b1592320bbedd09671469 | invalidate Trump deregulatory efforts | There’s every reason to expect current administrative law to shoot down Trump’s agenda.
Goldsmith 12-19-2024, JD, Professor @ Harvard Law. (Jack Landman, "What to Expect in Trump 2.0," American Enterprise Institute, https://www.aei.org/op-eds/what-to-expect-in-trump-2-0/)
West Virginia announced a MQD that requires congressional authorization MQD might prevent a Trump 2 agency from taking a novel deregulatory move due to lack of authorization MQD could make it harder , not easier to change directions [ t]here is every reason to expect an uptick in the number of invalidations of Trump deregulatory efforts |
00326a919dbd44e53240699b60d60566e3ef9659edf8e73110a9c6932d87fda7 | other explanations exist for stability | Leadership’s irrelevant.
Christopher Fettweis 17. Associate Professor of Political Science at Tulane University. “Unipolarity, Hegemony, and the New Peace,” Security Studies, 26:3, 423-451, 5-8-2017, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394
Other explanations exist for stability including common enemy democracy economic interdependence general war aversion US intervention is imperfectly correlated made the Persian Gulf and Middle East worse hard power have been equally ineffective US hegemony has failed to bring peace record is not uninterrupted successes It seems hard to make the case that relative peace descended on regions due to neoconservative leviathan Something else appears to be at work |
00acdc31a83d2199753738e4378bc756f44808b15c35699fef3e2dca60589528 | bias decreases | 1. Framework. Evaluate the plan’s consequences versus links.
Fiat Good---2AC
planetary inequality nihilistic armed conflicts climate change racist alt-right movements institutions seem ill-equipped to begin engaging human survival This poses challenges to theoretical tools inadequate to provide guidance for systemic transformation this moment demand justice and human solidarity struggles are immediately practical writings on governance avoid abstract musing argument during anticolonial struggles intervene in the present Césaire and Senghor commitment to human politics, as a critique of modernity rather than limited plotting of black identity understood a wholesale rebuilding of humanity pragmatic orientation was inseparable from commitment to political imagination of ‘ planetary salvation ’ refusal to ‘retreat from humanity’ that defines Black life maintain ‘possibility of justice’ the struggle remains ‘how to belong to a ‘world in common ’ time-series modeling traced three million race attitudes over fourteen years bias decreased 26 percent attitudes could touch neutrality in 2035 participants alike all moved toward neutrality not all biases are changing anti- elderly disability , and fat biases remained stable bias is context sensitive not reducible to attitudes of individuals one study influence association by exposing a slideshow participants showed a lessened degree of bias meta-analysis of two hundred studies demonstrated experiences can reduce biases Instead of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy , this should induce caution from Beijing and Washington Understanding the danger of war is the first step to avoid it Attempting to isolate a single cause for all wars is impossible . The proposition that war tends to break out during a power transition is a probabilistic — not deterministic —statement power shifts can increase probabilities of war like dry leaves but it does not mean war will inevitably break out Thucydides’s Trap cautions us to be prepared for the danger of war bias influences policy advocates have turned to perspective-taking exemplars, meditating , or empathy-building they rarely have a sustained effect policymakers can consider changing the context societal-scale interventions redress inequality policies are feasible for reducing inequality |
01dbd78d88c0897eb54683b9e374ddb7a82d627fd3f45096ed746cdf98f534d1 | carbon pricing deep decarbonisation | Pricing models consistently overestimate achievable emissions reductions. Adjustments are too little, too late.
Tvinnereim & Mehling '18 – Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Bergen; Professor at the University of Strathclyde Law School and Deputy Director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) (Endre Tvinnereim, Michael Mehling; "Carbon pricing and deep decarbonisation"; Energy Policy, Volume 121, 2018, Pages 185-189, ISSN 0301-4215, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.06.020; 2018; NC)
IPCC ) presented models consistent with strictest concentration target carbon pricing already exist but effect in real world diverge from modelling Incremental abatement not good enough Because of -lived nature g h a stabilisation requires net emissions to decline to zero . emissions to cease requires systemic transformation of economy Policies influencing decisions at the margin prove unsuited to scale of cli c |
016dcb643b3e5593760840cc250c0316e0958443c82c92434c7299bcc773ddae | Yoon will not pursue nukes | Recent U.S. commitment to South Korean defense dissuades proliferation now, but continued nuclear assurance is key.
Jennifer Ahn 23, Research Associate at the Council on Foreign Relations, specialist in Korean Studies; Council on Foreign Relations, 5/2/23, “Evaluating Extended Deterrence at the U.S.-South Korea Summit,” https://www.cfr.org/blog/evaluating-extended-deterrence-us-south-korea-summit
Washington Declaration outlines strengthened extended deterrence o So Ko N C G involves nuclear planning So Ko acknowledged reliance on U.S. nuclear reaffirmed commitment to the N p T declaration counters calls to develop nuclear weapons Yoon pledged coordination under the NCG relieve Korean concerns symbolizes display of U.S. defense commitment Yoon will not pursu nuc s concrete U.S. efforts to reinforce its nuclear umbrella but it will require continued assurance that the safety of So Ko is in U.S. interests |
0279d47f5339a534ef0a48541664b8931feb7485ef14cc6ae059b28666a68a4f | Görlach taxonomy | 3---field precision---Görlach’s taxonomy was produced through a comprehensive lit review and vetted in energy policy expert roundtables by academics and practitioners---precisely so they didn’t omit the instruments worth discussing
Ekins et al 17 [Paul Ekins, UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London; Paul Drummond, UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London; and Benjamin Görlach, Ecologic Institute, “Policy instruments for low-carbon development based on work from the EUFP7 project, CECILIA2050,” Climate Policy, 17(sup1), 2017, pp.S1-S7, DOI 10.1080/14693062.2016.1272044]
more important understanding the wide range of GHG abatement policies The aim of CECILIA2050 was precisely to understand climate policy instruments Although the focus was the EU , applied more widely |
043f9e31c8e7a8d0d12cfade6485fb5938b76e4eec6a8dfcbb4f0dcd1dfacd75 | States no banking influence | States have no international banking influence.
Dan Awrey 24. Professor of Law at Cornell University. “Money and Federalism.” European Corporate Governance Institute. 7-2024. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4848952
apex of international finance makes sense for U S given financial stability implications stemming from assets out of reach of U.S. state regulators do not speak with one voice Nor represented on international bodies like Basel influence pales in comparison to Fed clear dividends from shifting regulation to fed states are not well-positioned lack toolkit resources to respond to instability |
0346dfcaa843498340b06be41d8a696778beec1c21b39848b4966c1ed31e5574 | Hickel 23 | Tech breakthroughs are insufficient to solve ecocatastrophe, but the alt solves innovation better
Hickel 23 – professor at the Institute for Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA-UAB) and the Department of Social and Cultural Anthropology at the Autonomous University of Barcelona
degrowth embraces tech change But recognizes this alone will not be enough we need countries to reduce energy use at a speed faster than efficiency alone could possibly deliver Degrowth credibly promises to manage tech better than capitalism The conflict is not tech It is how tech is imagined and the conditions under which it is deployed tech progress do not need growth innovations can be achieved directly through public investment while scaling down production talent organized around advertising can be remobilized growth imperatives limit tech progress firms innovat around profits So we get planned obsolescence or innovations locked under patents |
0071e17b358a0a1eaac417e832e183b29ed67929313ff0688f90db130a892120 | Salt marshes fail | 4. Salt marshes fail.
Smeaton and Garrett 24, *Lecturer in Physical Geography, University of St Andrews, **Lecturer, Physical Geography, University of York (*Craig Smeaton, **Ed Garrett, May 23, 2024, “Saltmarshes do store carbon, but their climate impact may have been overestimated,” The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/saltmarshes-do-store-carbon-but-their-climate-impact-may-have-been-overestimated-230352)
saltmarshes reducing carbon has been overestimated each saltmarsh traps 245 grams However, this is based on carbon-rich saltmarshes These areas grow quickly saltmarshes in cooler and less sunny only trap 111 grams much lower than the global average |
0085feb6302a67580a28a65bad777ab7043ba7bec95ca8926d439f189ccf4435 | US trade weapon | Recent congressional proposals prove.
Denning 24 (Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy, holding a B.A. in history from the University of Caimbridge. A former banker, he edited the Wall Street Journal’s Heard on the Street column and wrote the Financial Times’s Lex column. Prior to journalism, he was an advisor in the energy industry. Denning, Liam. “The US’s New Trade Weapon against China Is Carbon.” Bloomberg.com, Bloomberg, 18 Apr. 2024, www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-18/the-us-s-new-trade-weapon-against-china-is-carbon. Accessed 24 June 2024.)Rinehart.
White House delivered Such as: Right now, our existing trade policies don’t pay enough attention to the emissions embodied in tradeable goods That’s fighting talk including against Chin proposed F P F Act would effectively impose a carbon border tax on selected imports aimed explicitly at China China reliance on coal-fired power , embedded now presents a structural weakness that can be exploited That means the energy transition comes with growing friction |
01c765a99f10f6024b72c924692c18bd4183fae4e2104295084266dbe6a55a91 | confidence averaged minus 18 | Business confidence is a useless indicator of economic prosperity.
Cameron Bagrie 18. Managing Director and Chief Economist at Bagrie Economics. Independent and straight-talking economics. Formerly Chief Economist, ANZ, New Zealand. "Business confidence is a hopeless indicator. But that doesn't mean the economy isn't in trouble," Spinoff, https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/09-08-2018/business-confidence-is-bullshit-but-that-doesnt-mean-the-economy-isnt-in-trouble/
Business confidence fallen off a cliff Economist says it’s meaningless can largely ignore business confidence hopeless as an economic indicator correlation with economic growth is poor Changes in direction can provide information but not levels Businesses tend to be more upbeat regarding confidence under blue flag as opposed to red one confidence averaged minus 18 economy grew by more than 3.5% per year confidence was negative, but growth was positive |
03b9d6c6e9d67c4dd074d988015dcfed1ae6b74520587a94eb34c797c350249c | Zoltán Boldizsár Simon | Reps of catastrophe do NOT result in nor legitimate sustaining the present---merely opens plural futures for the making
Simon et al 24 [Zoltán Boldizsár Simon, Bielefeld University; and Marek Tamm, Tallinn University; “The Opening of Historical Futures,” History & Theory, published online 6-19-2024, DOI 10.1111/hith.12352]
When assume a closure of the future mean action aimed at avoiding catastrophic futures results in extending the scope of the present over the future the narrative not capture complexities Even if, in contestation, some future might not come to be, there is not one single future coming to triumph should be described in terms of the multiplicity of immanent possible futures more radically open than ever might criticize the social costs of continuing with the modernist project nevertheless remains true that multiple positive futures are advocated and contested as long as futures are in contestation, “the future” remains open |
0049386ac668c1e33f16f7424a005be08abe01e512b9915ab305cb0dc44011e3 | oppressive political structures | Affect isn’t a basis for politics—they provide no recourse for dealing with atrocities
Sherwin, 15—New York Law School (Richard, “Too Late for Thinking: The Curious Quest for Emancipatory Potential in Meaningless Affect and Some Jurisprudential Implications”, Law, Culture and the Humanities 1–13, October 13, 2015, dml)
Affect theory humbles rationalist pretensions subordinating mind to bio-chemical processes is after-though we can never account for how actually been affected by things , affect operates as a cipher cannot formulate a coherent basis for political judgment anti-structural spontaneous emergent process remains trapped in double bind . No judgment forthcoming long as intensity amplified cannot coherently critique oppressive political structures (such as futurism, Nazism if masses embrace regimes for intensity freedom loses capacity to signify . without coherent structures , legal , political , necessary for meaningful freedom political judgment ) are unlikely to emerge effervescence of action based on intensity . In absence of political structures is destined to pass with the tide . affect theorists romanticize the fluid materiality of excitable networks If only responsibility for justice resolved by an expedient biological programming depends upon external stimuli uncertainty surrounds communication Affect theorists insist feelings have nothing to do with affect preserves purity of affective intensity we just can’t say anything about it theorists like Massumi want to eat cake and have it i incumbent to account for how exactly manipulation is being carried out the engineering of affect suffer from fundamental lack of explanatory power |
02852b3aa25d823ff69bd3fedda6b1c2989dd3b82e3fabaf6ecea30680d89dea | Senate needs must-pass legislation | It’ll never clear the Senate without must-pass legislation.
Weber ’24 [Maya, Molly Christian, and Margaret Rogers; February 2; Reporters; S&P Global Commodity Insights, “Republicans float bills to block US DOE pause on LNG export reviews,” https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/020224-republicans-float-bills-to-block-us-doe-pause-on-lng-export-reviews]
Whether Rep s can ultimately dislodge Biden could hinge on support from Dem s tucked into must-pass legislation bills mirror legislation that failed to advance the Senate Dem s would be needed to block the pause as part of must-pass legislation Overturning the DOE will not be easy Schumer cheered the move progressive s welcomed the decision |
00e2df0614fc4556a1714d9d0d4ddb2475c1f67523ec095c2cc673ecc9ef4059 | chemical industry extinction | Collapse of the chemical industry causes extinction.
Danielpour 14 [Steven; April 2014; AIA, CSI, CCS, LEED AP BD +C director of firmwide specifications at HOK, member of the corporate BuildingSmart, BIM, and Project Delivery boards; Cristalactiv, “Sustainable Coatings: Shifting the Paradigm,” http://www.cristalactiv.com/uploads/press/2014-04%20Sustainable%20Coatings_Danielpour%20D+D%20April%202014.pdf]
New tech will deliver innovations needed to respond to diminishing energy , water and megatrends, including population growth , climate change human survival depends on maintaining our ecological cycle The future lies in custom chemicals and new processing tech for the chemical industry industry produce healthier, environmentally sustainable chemicals that mitigate problems The challenges we face are unprecedented in human history, |
003ca573af8de4b2334d191a4182e11d7bf8290a3d8571dd523ad1693ec596c0 | hormone disrupting chemicals | PFAS causes extinction---decimates fertility.
Brokovich ’21 [Erin and Shanna Swan; 2021; American legal clerk and environmental activist, who, despite her lack of formal education in the law, was instrumental in building a case against the Pacific Gas and Electric Company of California in 1993, the president of Brockovich Research & Consulting; Ph.D., one of the world’s leading environmental and reproductive epidemiologists and a professor of environmental medicine and public health at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai; The Guardian, “Plummeting Sperm Counts, Shrinking Penises: Toxic Chemicals Threaten Humanity,” https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich]
hormone-disrupting chemicals decimating fertility at alarming rate sperm dropped 60% counts reach zero by 2045 PFAS don’t breakdown in environment or body humanity reaching breaking point reproductive affairs can’t continue without threatening existential science |
02a8b05ea3609e68cac60d69187b40c794e7c0af988824bfb110a835cd4a72c5 | social cost of ghg | Biden did the plan.
Galer & Williams '22 – Partner Corporate & Securities, Global Energy, Projects & Infrastructure; Partner Projects & Infrastructure (Nathan B. Galer & Mark C. Williams; "Buy Clean: Biden's Executive Order on Catalyzing Clean Energy through Federal Procurement"; Mayer Brown; 03-22-2022; https://www.mayerbrown.com/es/insights/publications/2022/03/buy-clean-bidens-executive-order-on-catalyzing-clean-energy-through-federal-procurement; NC)
Biden EO required Federal suppliers includ the social cost of g h g in procurement decisions give preference to bids with a lower social cost procurement are certain to change Biden is taking advantage of expansive authority measures do not require congress Clean Energy EO create a large market for clean energy |
01fe8af12c6694f69a6062918d2e8e105515e4b6d0620c0b47c740de2e0180e8 | enjoying climate change | The aff’s paradoxical enjoyment of environmental crisis paves a highway to Armageddon. Vote neg to rescript political subjectivation.
Pohl & Swyngedouw 23, *Postdoctoral researcher at the Geography Department of the Humboldt University Berlin **Professor of geography at the University of Manchester in the School of Environment, Education and Development and a member of the Manchester Urban Institute. (*Paul **Erik, March 2023, "Enjoying climate change: Jouissance as a political factor", Elsevier, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2022.102820)
the environmental question and its articulation with socio-ecological dynamics has been mainstreamed There is widespread consensus , about climate change Nonetheless the climate parameters keep eroding data affirm the paradoxical situation access to knowledge does not guarantee effective intervention evidenced by the failure of COP27 divide between knowledge and action understood as fetishistic disavowal If there is jouissance allows us to understand climate change not only a threat to the world, but something that is enjoyed in forms of climate discourses and practices the need to traverse fantasies requires re-scripting political subjectivation and our libidinal attachments to enjoyment |
01be4569f5553f811ce90b35de723560a65ab5076268e26358840d2d962738ae | California emissions reductions | Concedes market reform, carbon pricing, energy efficiency, and clean standards for electricity and vehicle are effective---California proves.
Buller 22 (Adrienne Buller is Director of Research at Common Wealth, a UK-based progressive think tank focused on the political economy of ownership. 2022, “The Value of a Whale: On the Illusions of Green Capitalism”, Manchester University Press) Adrian
carbon pricing frequent bedfellow offsetting failed to achieve progress sim- plicity’ of carbon price thwarted by mess- iness of reality carbon tax predeter- mined cost per carbon applied in various ways ETS many large firms extracted enormous profits from mechanism rather than polluter pays’ principle in practice carbon pricing inverted logic polluters frequently profit EU’s ETS decreased emissions between 0% and 2% contribution 3.8% over 15 years emissions reductions result of switching from coal to natural gas rather than decarbonised technologies or nnovation’ rent controls venting carbon prices from working prevent landlords from hiking rents to reflect investment in solar panels In Canada carbon price challenged by carbon-intensive industries political hostility left unwillingness to pursue carbon pricing carbon pricing repealed three years later in California promising emissions reductions turned out to be the result of investments in energy efficiency and ‘clean standards’ for electricity and vehicles |
03fd6a81876505fe573185f3d6b80e79c1d5c80d2e1357de5ae1c3e963c09551 | Depressions and war | Economic decline doesn’t cause war.
Walt ’20 [Stephen; 5/13/20; Professor of International Relations at Harvard University; " Will a Global Depression Trigger Another World War?" https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/13/coronavirus-pandemic-depression-economy-world-war/]
I do not think econ impact war if depressions cause war, the re would be more U S suffered 40 yet 20 wars , most unrelated to econ national leaders avoid war when and uncertain No matter condition leaders will not war unless quickly , cheaply , and with success motivation for is security, not gain “every war started as preventive not conquest depression are one factor among many rarely significant economy is not likely to affect probability |
00fde7caae70570c78232c9c451fd0a707675a21d0a2db893bf554013e72635c | voluntary carbon credit derivatives | Enforcement thumps
Davis et al 11/15 [Elizabeth Lan Davis1, Walker Stanovsky2, and Michael P. McDonald3, 1Partner and co-chairs the firm’s national financial services practice with two decades of experience at the CFTC and SEC, 2Associate who practices energy and climate change law, 3Associate who advises clients in the areas of investment advisory and regulatory enforcement defense and previously worked as a SEC investment advisor, "Significant Changes in CFTC's Final Guidance on Listing Voluntary Carbon Credit Derivatives", No Publication, 11-15-2024, https://www.dwt.com/blogs/financial-services-law-advisor/2024/11/cftc-final-guidance-on-vcc-carbon-credit-trading]
CFTC alleging fraud against Newcombe increased scrutiny demonstrates CFTC's proactive stance in shaping regulatory framework standardization aims create reliable m arket participants should review to ensure compliance developments will be crucial |
01a57a3be227b2d8f337f6689066f9fe4b759a5a081786ffd4f12612f8bb2c21 | Jonas Meckling | The term ‘Clean Energy Policy’ requires broad systemic change---that’s key to limits & ground.
Jonas Meckling and Nicholas Goedeking 2023, Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley; Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, “Coalition cascades: The politics of tipping points in clean energy transitions”, July 20, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/psj.12507, accessed 9/29/24, HMc
clean energy policy plays out across several subsystems, including electricity, transport, and housing in shifting interconnected policy subsystems into a new equilibrium requires policy change across subsystems . subsystem interdependencies exist across an array of policy issues gas policy has spillover effects for electricity changes in monetary policy spill over into housing A coordination problem exists if policy change in subsystem A is stymied by a lack of policy change in subsystem B. positive trans-subsystem policy change relates to other types of policy change, yet is distinct from them minor change relates to a change in a subcomponent of the policy subsystem, whereas major change refers to subsystem-wide change Both minor and major policy changes can contribute to policy change but are distinct from policy change that results in systemwide tipping points. |
0274ee5e88bae9f6962be962df2b6e79bef2312d7126487f73292dec92ffea0d | Degrowth causes elite backlash | Growth is key to societal functioning. Degrowth causes elite backlash, massive inequality, decimates global quality of life and starvation kills billions.
Saul Zimet 22. Website and Data Coordinator for HumanProgress.org at the Cato Institute and a graduate student in economics at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice at the City University of New York, was a Hazlitt Fellow at the Foundation for Economic Education. “Why Economic Degrowth Is Terrible for Everyone—Especially the Poor.” 6/5/22. https://fee.org/articles/why-economic-degrowth-is-terrible-for-everyone-especially-the-poor/
improving material fortunes causes health, education life expectancies trust and standards of living over 90 percent human population lived in extreme poverty before 1800 and less than 10 percent It was growth not redistribution growth rates have significant consequences for living standards zero-sum strategy destined to fail making enemies of most powerful members of society incentivized and empowered to prevent redistribution every major socialist experiment resulted in elite control increasing supply of wealth reduces barriers to earning will be willing to pay more for labor as economy grows, more progress can be funded which increases capabilities of vast majority of humanity strategy is far more likely to succeed in practice even a small change in growth rate means difference between starvation and survival for billions not to mention difference between humanity’s extinction and ability to fund tech progress to become sustainably multiplanetary |
01a8b2a6b80594a3b3c55f338608dd66085b80c06f98087b7fe92d5ca389cfc9 | climate change cooperation likely | Climate wars are debunked by large-N datasets---cooperation’s more likely
Warner 23, PhD, Associate Professor of Crisis and Disaster Studies at Wageningen University and Research. (Jeroen Frank, 10-5-2023, “Rethinking the link between climate and violent conflict over water,” International Development Planning Review, Volume 45, Number 4, p. 383-386, https://doi.org/10.3828/idpr.2023.15)
it is outrageous to assume hotter weather makes people aggressive water wars won’t happen environmental problems can be catalysts for coop environmental limits make societies switch to rational ways of dealing with scarcity demand management water wars haven’t broken out for 2,500 years coop is the norm hostile parties work together if they face a common environmental threat mortality for Zika, dengue, and chikungunya are low their spread does not threaten extinction progress is being made on vaccines biotechnologists are developing tech that can either prevent mosquitoes from carrying pathogens or eliminate the pests altogether . the role of climate will decreasingly figure as a factor in determining exposure to vector-borne illnesses . The real danger comes from overheating the planetary interior the solid nucleus of our planet is a nuclear reactor ignorance may cause it to overheat and explode if we do not do anything today about Greenhouse Emissions cause the entire atmosphere to trap more Solar Heat and leads to explosion Please forward this page (or the link to it) to ANY scientist or person of integrity whom you know Avoid the mass media - it seems that they are controlled by those who run the "economy" and are interested in keeping humanity misinformed to the greatest extent possible |
0069c134bcc93befc308a058e047bf8a997f88fbf04f79121da6d781ba27ced4 | proliferation is not a problem | Prolif doesn’t cause nuke war or preemptive strikes – it’s overstated
Mueller 20 [Mueller 6/24/20 [John Mueller is a political scientist at Ohio State University and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. His latest book, The Stupidity of War: American Foreign Policy and the Case for Complacency, is forthcoming from Cambridge University Press. "Nuclear Anti‐Proliferation Policy and the Korea Conundrum: Some Policy Proposals." https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/nuclear-anti-proliferation-policy-korea-conundrum-some-policy]
the notion prolif is a problem has been overwrought the C I A war would be inevitable experts warned Iran or Korea would be a proliferation cascade resulting in nuclear war Korea has had weapons for decade there is little cascade no country altered its commitment consequences have been benign the U S did not attack China and China did not become aggressive regimes stoke their egos or deter They kept weapons in storage denied their existence and haven’t rattling them |
00aa9020f8f583ee429e4b696cf2e8b6096189b0f63f7d6c90272ad0da22954d | Airlines cutting ticket prices | 4. Flight prices low.
Whitley 24, writer for Bloomberg, citing James Kavanagh, Director of the Officer of Leasure at Brisbane Flight Center Travel Group LTD (Angus Whitley, July 24, 2024, “Airlines Are Finally Cutting Ticket Prices as Flight Numbers Rise,” Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-24/air-fare-pain-eases-as-pricing-power-swings-back-to-passengers)
Passengers are winning from fare madness that followed the pandemic and price declines are coming As travel restrictions lifted prices ballooned falling fares reflect growing number of international flights and a public that is cost conscious It’s not just a blip , it’s a global trend Airlines certainly don’t have all the power fares fell 6% in 2024 Prices continue to fall With pressure airlines seeking to fill planes there are deals for early bookers |
00a6556a4f5232f1d1a941d108071a29d1e69be225481ea87234b6998a735c82 | Firm-level BCA causes tech transfer | Firm-level BCA causes tech transfer.
Xan Fishman et. al 24. Senior Director, Energy Program, Bipartisan Policy Center; MA, Tel Aviv University. John Jacobs: Senior Policy Analyst, Energy Program, Bipartisan Policy Center; MPP, George Washington Trachtenberg School of Public Policy. George David Banks: Chief Strategist (R), House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis; former adjunct research scholar, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University; JD, George Mason University. Daniel Elizalde: Policy Analyst, Energy Program, Bipartisan Policy Center; MPP, American University’s School of Public Affairs. “Designing a Climate and Trade Policy Fit for the United States.” Bipartisan Policy Center. Jul. 2024. https://bipartisanpolicy.org/download/?file=/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/BPC-24_Energy-Emissions-Performance_R05.pdf.
an EPBCA could apply based on individual firms this accelerate transfer of low-carbon technologies to developing countries that host foreign production |
01119d072051bc2d2414855211b03745067b5bb0c54b1ac42a3c0807d4eff2f4 | carbon prices marginal costs | Cap and trade prompts immediate electricity price increases.
Natalia Fabra & Mar Reguant 14 - Professor of Economics at Carlos III University, Founder and Director of EnergyEcoLab & Affiliated Professor of the Barcelona School of Economics (BSE) and Director of the Master's in Economics of Energy, Climate Change, and Sustainability. “Pass-Through of Emissions Costs in Electricity Markets,” September 2014, American Economic Review 104(9), pg. 2872–2899.
effects of carbon prices on the marginal costs of generating electricity are significant fluctuations of permit prices are exogenous cost shocks to firms We find the average pass-through to be above 80 percent , a €1 increase in emissions costs translates to an increase in electricity prices of more than 80 cents this goes to 100 percent during peak times finding shows electricity firms fully incorporated the opportunity cost of permits This is consistent with free permits having no distortionary effects highly inelastic demand, implies incentives to adjust markups are very weak in these markets. prices move one-to-one with changes in emissions costs. our estimate is net of non-emissions costs |
0049797e4ace7e83db0b84781f0df394df3f280302a9c80b276482d841f7609e | environmental justice state | 4---Environmental justice requires insider activism that tactically engages the State without reaffirming its hegemony.
Harrison et al. 24 [Jill Lindsey Harrison – Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Jonathan K. London – Department of Human Ecology/Community and Regional Development, University of California. Seeking environmental justice through the state: Insider allies in U.S. state and federal government agencies, Geoforum, Volume 155, October 2024, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718524001593, JKS]
By taking positions within allies been able to advance EJ While mindful of limitations affordances offered social movements by continuously contested and relational nature of the state tactics involve building solidarity within growing internal capacity of public agencies to administer EJ being intentional about hires, carving out positions” for advocates hiring former activists protecting decision-making autonomy change workplace culture that hinder reform efforts allies well versed in challenging foundations of the racial state improving agencies’ community engagement Many critiqued tokenism insider allies understand where practices fall short They draw on activist experiences and frustrations with the state to increase transparent flow of info Insider ally Sid, who is Native worked with allies inside settler state agencies to decriminalize traditional Tribal activities. Miles’s focus on the “historical lega of environmental racism helps press for systemic institutional change. data-driven tech direct state action to improving material conditions mapping tools like CalEnviroscreen EJSCREEN, and C E J S identify communities to guide improvements and protection scholars critiqued tech as surveillance EJ staff used tech to re-direct resources to communities excluded from public infrastructure and targeted as sacrifice zones product of EJ policy advocacy redistribute over $1.3 billion for water in disadvantaged communities allies played key roles in ensuring implementation aligns with EJ and reverse patterns of racialized disinvestment legal enforcement work resulted in a “radical shift allies have achieved important benefits for underserved communities need to identify conditions that movements foster modest yet meaningful change through the state |
00e2df0614fc4556a1714d9d0d4ddb2475c1f67523ec095c2cc673ecc9ef4059 | chemicals mitigate problems | Collapse of the chemical industry causes extinction.
Danielpour 14 [Steven; April 2014; AIA, CSI, CCS, LEED AP BD +C director of firmwide specifications at HOK, member of the corporate BuildingSmart, BIM, and Project Delivery boards; Cristalactiv, “Sustainable Coatings: Shifting the Paradigm,” http://www.cristalactiv.com/uploads/press/2014-04%20Sustainable%20Coatings_Danielpour%20D+D%20April%202014.pdf]
New tech will deliver innovations needed to respond to diminishing energy , water and megatrends, including population growth , climate change human survival depends on maintaining our ecological cycle The future lies in custom chemicals and new processing tech for the chemical industry industry produce healthier, environmentally sustainable chemicals that mitigate problems The challenges we face are unprecedented in human history, |
00a247dab04ffb2b7f8537bdff8e1d7d722936f943503c9499725bb4b9605c53 | maintain international non-prolif norms | That’s key to maintain international non-prolif norms and break Russian dominance.
Ahn et. al 23 – Alan Ahn, Deputy Director for Nuclear for Third Way’s Climate and Energy Program, Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy (MALD) from Tufts University; Josh Freed, led Third Way’s clean energy and climate advocacy efforts; Ryan Norman, Policy Advisor for Third Way's Climate and Energy Program; Rowen Price, Policy Advisor for Nuclear Energy at Third Wave, 11/7/23, “Nuclear Fuel is a National Security Imperative”, https://www.thirdway.org/memo/nuclear-fuel-is-a-national-security-imperative
Building out nuclear fuel infrastructure is pressing given dependence on Russia uranium increase nuclear security and proliferation risks. Strengthening confidence serves as a linchpin to US policies in countering spread buildout meet not only domestic needs but also allies exports generate revenue and mitigating proliferation risks international presence essential so we set highest standards on nonproliferation new and emerging competitors offering technologies outside export controls meaning transactions do not require licenses bilateral cooperation etc Russia weaponizing exports to project influence Building out capacity important step leverage highest global standards for nonproliferation Without nuclear fuel collapse |
029f08fa23eefcdfef5b0d604523ed650d2bf72e42e9c3c0ad6af07e3261395a | scenario planning foreign policy | We should use debate to hash out what alternative foreign policies look like. Scenario planning is more effective than pure resistance AND there is a unique opening for ideas to take hold---our method provides necessary preparation.
Loren Dejonge Schulman 18, Deputy Director of Studies and Leon E. Panetta Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security., 12-4-2018, "Policy Roundtable: The Future of Progressive Foreign Policy – Texas National Security Review," Texas National Security Review, https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-progressive-foreign-policy/#_ftn75
superficial dialogue military first” military last end wars with similar reflexivity The left could fill this vacuum at a time of missteps of Trump the space to question America’s foreign policy may be widening The position of the left is that “the best foreign policy is good domestic policy questions on interventions have no forum rigid pacifism though common has no organized political presence and thus also escapes interrogation offers the refuge of principle without justification Critical analysis of defense is left to the technocratic “blob,” which has limited ability to engage people progressives underestimate the importance of discussions about military doctrine Instead should propose questions about development What should America do now ? filling the gap between “Republican-lite” and stubborn anti-militarism it’s essential that the left avoid becoming a caricature of itself that promotes simplistic rigid, unserious standards should embrace active participation beyond the water’s edge. That’s how to make national security more democratic and accountable |
0417e1b55347393186e1ef88c7ee674cfa70b43b7af0b665bb617eda96c11524 | Santabárbara '22 | No "perception" link---credible monetary policy authorities look past carbon taxes.
Santabárbara '22 [Daniel, Marta Suárez-Varela; October; Head of Advanced and Systemic Economies Unit, Banco de España; Senior Economist, Banco de España; Bank of Spain; "Carbon Pricing and Inflation Volatility," https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/22/Files/dt2231e.pdf]
carbon pricing associated with larger inflation driven only by ETS no impact found for carbon taxes ETS lead to more volatile than stable carbon taxes carbon pricing associated to a transitory effect on inflation monetary policy authorities will ’look through’ this effect as a negative supply-side shock |
00e08f86e5ef713045c5d20cbe57f178b867736bac0315cabcd3c34b153eacbd | China economic and technological objectives | China renewable lead spills over.
Ariel Cohen '24. Ph.D. is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Founding Principal of International Market Analysis. 11-11-2024. COP29: Asserting American Energy Leadership Amid Change. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2024/11/11/cop29-asserting-american-energy-leadership-amid-change/. Forbes. Accessed 11-15-2024.
if U.S. abandons role China happily fill that power vacuum to bolster economic and technological objectives and prestige U S is uniquely positioned to promote a renewable transition that is effective and profitable creating American jobs while addressing the realities of energy security |
014229d8901b92e71b57bc3652e0867660929caa3eed8b28bfe814da082cb46e | US dollar will continue reign | 5. Dollar is resilient.
Joseph POLITANO Financial Management Analyst @ Bureau of Labor Statistics 3-26-22 https://apricitas.substack.com/p/sanctions-on-russia-wont-end-the?r=lllv0&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=direct
The internet runs on negative news financial world is no exception The US dollar will continue reign doesn’t get clicks 2020 recessions were tougher challenges for the dollar after each the dollar emerged as more sought-after . The British Pound is instructive it took two world wars for America to become reserve issuer |
0011ce60334848ac212cf69f4e8e3a84ac7b8ae7e14551ed31c26a5fe7f95255 | Idaho knowledge trade | [5] TRADE OFFICES---states cant monitor exports.
Baasch ’16 [Ryan and Saikrishna Prakash; 2016; Law Clerk to Judge Karen LeCraft Henderson; James Monroe Distinguished Professor of Law, University of Virginia School of Law; Michigan Law Review, “Congress and the Reconstruction of Foreign Affairs Federalism,” vol. 115]
state trade offices ." pale in comparison to the resources of the State Department Even if we concede states trade through their tiny offices few would suppose Idaho could possibly supply the knowledge necessary The gulf between the fed compared to states is beyond question states institutions would take decades |
01d7e4e6c8175f29ba37796c7a1c054ab7ea74405153e5c328de4b023debbc3f | IRA accelerate transition | Solves internationally – the counterplan causes policy modeling and tech diffusion
Daniel A. Farber 24, Sho Sato Professor of Law and Director of the Center for Law, Energy, and the Environment at the University of California, Berkeley, “Turning Point: Green Industrial Policy and the Future of U.S. Climate Action,” Texas A&M Law Review, 2024, 11 Tex. A&M L. Rev. 303
clean energy policies extend beyond a jurisdiction by making new tech available growth of clean energy in other states build political support for further action successful energy policies face adoption elsewhere one place brings down costs for others the camel’s nose is under the tent the IRA accelerate the transition in other countries Competition between countries expand the impact networks speed policy contagion networks provide direct assistance peer-to-peer exchange; and knowledge because the IRA has lowered costs stronger policies can be exported other countries may adopt industrial policies |
0233d02fdd923cd5d502dae7affa9d7e0b0ab1a6a719680ace8e879a3ac6b632 | Bradley 21 | ‘China threat’ is accurate and not racist.
Bradley ’21 [Joff P. N.; 2021; Professor at Teikyo University, Department of Philosophy; Educational Philosophy and Theory, The China-threat discourse, trade, and the future of Asia, A Symposium, “On the re-Orientation of geo-politics,” DOI: 10.1080/00131857.2021.1897573]
C T D caveats threats to Asia with China’s clout take place in complex history China has much to do to rebalance relations with Japan , Taiwan Koreas narrative in terms of China and America fail to note web of Asia no country is free of criticism fraught legacies between Japan, China, Taiwan Koreas at loggerheads nothing about this delicate we ought to look for brighter future but China may destabilise |
0134afa6c230ed2b193e7361b661cb987b894e3442b12b9a83b62f1187ee7aaf | states vulnerable | Ukraine causes a wave of autarky.
Dr. Eric Helleiner 24. Professor of Political Science, University of Waterloo; PhD, London School of Economics; former Killam Research Fellow; recipient, IPE Distinguished Scholar Award, International Studies Association. “Economic Globalization's Polycrisis.” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 68, Iss. 2. Jun. 2024. https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae024.
invasion of Ukraine Western sanctions unraveled economic ties result has been massive disruptions across the globe actions illustrated vulnerability of all states to weaponization of interdependence after the war ends concerns endure since governments are strengthening economic warfare A lesson is reinforced : dangers of interdependence the same was drawn in the 30s when sanctions provided a catalyst for Japan Italy and Germany to turn autarkic |
029f08fa23eefcdfef5b0d604523ed650d2bf72e42e9c3c0ad6af07e3261395a | military doctrine discussion | We should use debate to hash out what alternative foreign policies look like. Scenario planning is more effective than pure resistance AND there is a unique opening for ideas to take hold---our method provides necessary preparation.
Loren Dejonge Schulman 18, Deputy Director of Studies and Leon E. Panetta Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security., 12-4-2018, "Policy Roundtable: The Future of Progressive Foreign Policy – Texas National Security Review," Texas National Security Review, https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-progressive-foreign-policy/#_ftn75
superficial dialogue military first” military last end wars with similar reflexivity The left could fill this vacuum at a time of missteps of Trump the space to question America’s foreign policy may be widening The position of the left is that “the best foreign policy is good domestic policy questions on interventions have no forum rigid pacifism though common has no organized political presence and thus also escapes interrogation offers the refuge of principle without justification Critical analysis of defense is left to the technocratic “blob,” which has limited ability to engage people progressives underestimate the importance of discussions about military doctrine Instead should propose questions about development What should America do now ? filling the gap between “Republican-lite” and stubborn anti-militarism it’s essential that the left avoid becoming a caricature of itself that promotes simplistic rigid, unserious standards should embrace active participation beyond the water’s edge. That’s how to make national security more democratic and accountable |
011fa0cec26b5f606c3626ab450f07612253a0c063b84ef477616355bf2d9bfa | growth drives tech innovation | Growth drives destabilizing tech-innovation that proliferates and facilitates bioterrorism---degrowth solves.
Albert 20, is a lecturer in International Relations working at the intersection of IR and political theory, critical political economy, and the transdisciplinary study of socio-ecological systems. (Michael J., 4-17-2020, “The Dangers of Decoupling: Earth System Crisis and the ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’,” Global Policy, Volume 11, Issue 2, pp. 245-254, https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12791)
faith in innovation to solve decoupling convergent breakthroughs in synthetic biology renewable energy FIR-driven sustainability would intensify synthetic biology is expected to produce viruses more harmful capabilities remain limited convergent capabilities enable breakthroughs in bioweaponization by improving stability and delivery CRIPSR expands capacities of biohackers imperil global security by unleashing po werful and complex capabilities green economy accelerate trends genetically engineered biofuels dramatically increase would expand expertise and access to equipment synthetic biology are ‘b lack swan waiting to happen ’ if technology becomes key engine of growth FIR generate reinforcing spiral of insecurity poverty and deprivation make militant terrorist likely FIR technologies ‘democratizing’ WMD capacities among non-state actors policies break from growth to dampen technological trends pursuit of GDP growth should be replaced a ‘post-growth’ economy has potential |
0328ecb9bfff4c0c61e8c2d51bfdda4ac11958254c13915837a48094171ad634 | methane excellent candidate climate change | Methane key.
Pep Canadell 24. Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Environment; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIRO. “Methane emissions are at new highs. It could put us on a dangerous climate path.” https://theconversation.com/methane-emissions-are-at-new-highs-it-could-put-us-on-a-dangerous-climate-path-237809#:~:text=Methane%20is%20not%20slowing&text=Since%20then%2C%20however%2C%20methane%20has,is%20constantly%20being%20broken%20down.
humans have supercharged methane only short-term levers to slow the rate of climate change Although human activities emit less methane 80 times as effective as CO ₂ in trapping heat methane rapidly mixes carbon dioxide is a much more stable molecule combination of short lifespan and extreme potency make methane an excellent candidate for efforts to rapidly tackle climate change |
0031b7911bb448a225f31cc55d81b6ce05f01681973b2fffc9dc57c385e09419 | wetlands existential threat | Wetland degradation is existential.
Urrego ’20 [Martha; January 31; Secretary General of the Ramsar Convention; World Economic Forum, “Why We Need Wetlands,” https://www.weforum.org/stories/2020/01/wetlands-nature-preservation-ecology-biodiversity/]
All planet depend on healthy ecosystems for air , water , and food regulate climate and provide raw resources on which econ s and lives depend collapse is an existential threat wetlands are most valuable provide $47 trillion clean and store water . At time wh water conflict rise major source of fish and rice tackle hunger poverty and food security most effective carbon sinks play central role in climate |
02185422350a6b64dc3169a89ffe09e018419b0b10fb124ae9867a7b5403df7c | Proven by court jurisprudence | That’s proven by past court jurisprudence
Peskoe 17 – Senior Fellow in Electricity Law at Harvard Law School’s Environmental Policy Initiative
There is an important distinction The payments in Hughes were based explicitly on the PJM price RGGI requires generators to retire an allowance for CO2 A generator includes the allowance in the offer it submits The price generated thus includes the allowance RGGI does not “adjust” a FERC rate |
00d3143c8d6611a39807150cf891142af4a236f6b8523b8bfc12b0dd87de3790 | Nico Edwards | Eco-Sumud promotes diverse mechanisms to disrupt the material and abstract processes that structure social relations. Eco-Sumud represents the everyday efforts of Palestinians to stay on the land with environmentally sustainable ways of resisting occupation and living through the land.
Edwards, 24 [Nico is a researcher, Student in International Relations and a UKRI ESRC SeNSS student-led studentship awardee “Resisting Green Militarism, Refusing Sustainable War – Collective Action for Peace and Ecological Justice.” World Peace Foundation, February 24, 2024. https://worldpeacefoundation.org/blog/resisting-green-militarism-refusing-sustainable-war-collective-action-for-peace-and-ecological-justice-2/, Accessed 24 August 2024] Lhudson
There is momentum to drive new contexts of collective action through bringing together peace, justice and ecological movements there lies great potential to enhance intersectional mobilisation that demand change Some promote direct disruption, others indirect mechanisms to disrupt abstract processes that structure social relations most initiatives are not reducible to policy versus grassroots or indirect versus direct action, but involve aspects of all Fight Toxic Prisons, Stop Cop City and XR Peace exemplify direct action r acialised and indigenous communities practice myriad eco-social resistance in everyday lives, embodying and act towards just decolonial eco-social transitions collective ecological justice actors are resisting occupation dispossession, ecocide and social warfare all at once resistance addresses intersecting harms at the community-level Eco-sumud represents everyday steadfastness to stay on lands combined with environmentally sustainable ways C asa Pueblo is example how to bridge theorising and practising eco-social resistance nexus between militarism and ecological injustice offers innovation and expansion of collective action acts of interrogating and communicating, are necessary methodologies for tackling knowledge gaps that feed fragmentation of movements |
0195fea1a58af7c41a16c4d9af1438e1489a0db2bb12bc52c8cddc3e2b1a7448 | Romy Opperman | The AFF fails to confront ecological destruction and links to the same Humanism they criticize
Opperman ’20 (Romy, The New School for Social Research, Their research bridges Africana, continental, decolonial, environmental, and feminist philosophy to foreground issues of racism and colonialism for environmental ethics and justice, “Race, Ecology, Freedom: Climate Justice And Environmental Racism”, A Dissertation in Philosophy submitted to Pennsylvania State University Graduate School, August 2020, https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/18092reo136, [SG])
Wynter’s proposed solution fails remains indebted to Enlightenment humanism that it purports to break with . the value she assigns to autonomy drives her sociogenic principle despite its promise, approach would not be free from normative, anthropocentric problems Wynter’s account fails to adequately interrogate the material systemic causes of environmental racism purports to be universal and value neutral actually imports problematic norms and values about the good life and conceals what is at stake for affected communities her account of anthropocentrism amounts to an avoidance of ecological justice restricts itself to justice among humans |
040dff8a6ae8743b83924830ab47c1d07305ea0f5d0460279f41de9d0d8c59af | capitalism inequality wealth concentration | Racial Capitalism is unsustainable and its collapse is inevitable – leads to endless wars, climate change, rising fascism, and rampant inequality.
Robinson 21. William I. Robinson is a Professor of Sociology and Global Studies at UC Santa Barbara and has a Ph.D. in Sociology from the University of New Mexico. “What are the real reasons behind the New Cold War?” https://mronline.org/2021/05/10/what-are-the-real-reasons-behind-the-new-cold-war/
capitalism faces overaccumulation in which the market cannot absorb because of inequality extreme concentration of wealth means difficulty finding outlets overaccumulation results in crisis economy never recovered from 2008 and had been on the brink a global war economy relies on perpetual war social control and repression to sustain capital wars on immigrants border walls prison-industrial complexes International tensions derive from contradiction in capitalism International frictions escalate as states sublimate tensions the crisis increases danger war The crisis is existential because of ecological collapse and nuclear war the crisis animates neofascist forces placing the world into global war |
01e39a801687714dc6b035c27b9a9469c237e9cfaec539f4a491b75f866b7c0f | electricity dependence | Their rendering of blackouts is shot through with the logic of energy security. The plan risks extinction by trading off with alternative transmission imaginaries that are more sustainable.
Özden-Schilling 24 – Canay Özden-Schilling is assistant professor in the Department of Sociology and Anthropology at the National University of Singapore. (“Staying with the blackout: an insecure anthropology of energy,” 25 Jun 2024, pg. 3-6)
Energy security literature problematizes social unevenness in the distribution of energy as well as social costs study can help tease out the paradox of growth-fuelled energy insecurities a new energy future will amount to no less than rethinking the entirety of global capitalism modernity are entangled with fossil fuel extraction and use Electricity dependence is one of the aspects of this sociotechnical assemblage Blackouts are moments of wholesale failure for the electricity assemblage they are failures of ways of communal living there is in the exercise of staying with the blackout an opportunity to see distribution in a new light an alternative to common kinds of response one of unqualified hope a belief in technofixes one of destructive despair the time to do anything has already passed and no meaningful action can be taken grid-scale batteries remain limited The rhetoric here is that technology can get our failing system back on its feet without requiring electricity consumers to sacrifice their ways of consumption remembrances of blackouts are too often mobilized to justify further expansion or unnecessary investment likely to amplify existing vulnerabilities renewable futures perpetuate ideals of excess and abundance digging deep into expert imaginaries there is an opportunity to rethink ours as ordinary people |
0053a3dbfb5f0da03770d40b4f2ad2ed159a7702c19b4dc86a1bf4dce857151c | financial crises climate resilience | It entrenches cheaper polluting fuels and divests from green technology.
João Tovar Jalles 23. Senior Associate Professor of Economics at University Of Lisbon. “Financial Crises and Climate Change.” 2023. Springer Nature. Doi: 10.1057/s41294-023-00209-7.
financial crises lead to a deterioration in resilience to climate change negatively affect climate friendly investments making capital more difficult As both governments and the private sector focus on recovery shift priorities Financial crises forcing switch lower cost fuels crises make it harder to finance green projects lower capacity encourage consumption of goods with inferior environmental quality and over-exploitation In recessionary times, carbon lock-in is more likely as lower energy prices reduce economic viability |
007f0cceee58e997862605568a39e4274d6d17b636fca553f2acb422aa79760c | climate emergency financial insurance | It is through this intimate investment into the fantastical power of social democracy that “hope policy rolls like tear gas into the undercommons”.
Demos 23 [Life in the Posthuman Condition. Chapter 5: “Climate Control: From Emergency to Emergence” T. J. Demos. Collection Edited by S. E. Wilmer and Audrone. Žukauskaite ISBN 978 1 3995 0529 1. 2023//Spence]
if we consider tear gas as the medium of climate emergency We face an entirely different politico-ecological calculus . counterinsurgency increasingly demands democratic authoritarian control . uprisings in Hong Kong San Juan Iraq Chile migrants crossing the border all answered with tear gas integral the response to opposition that bypasses conventional routes of negotiation . these revolutions offer important lessons for climate emergency With carbon the source is distributed, complex . tear gas grenades remain intimately intertwined, with energy, infrastructure and security . for environmentalists climate threatens civilisational collapse, attributed most immediately – and tellingly – to atmospheric carbon . urgency is misdirected . demands that governments ‘tell the truth’ about climate , ‘act now’ to decarbonise bypassi such groups as I E N which highlight racial and class climate disruption . deluded liberalism narrowly focus on carbon as the cause of emergency emptying activist rituals of traction . the generalised ‘we’ situat emergency in the near future defin it as carbon caused, as if disaster hasn’t already occurred . policy proposals reaffirm emergency without emergence green capital invites the state of exception to take command . climate emergency becomes financial insurance , redirecting towards market solutions what could otherwise be insurgency . Bolsonaro Duterte Netanyahu and Trump declare emergency of their own making shrouded in tear gas . juridico-political and military frameworks – functions as humanitarian warfare’ employed to defend power tear gas hypes safety but enacts repression its calculus of impact materialises slow violence . |
02e36db2f360830f365d5046e14f9f6fbf38852af2989eb92a28261b01082949 | ressentiment compensation for passivity | 2 - Triggers ressentiment – the cessation of life-affirmation. Through passively nihilistic views of life, it forces hostility for its own sustenance.
Tuinen 24 - Sjoerd van Tuinen 2024 (Sjoerd van Tuinen is Associate Professor of Philosophy at Erasmus University Rotterdam. Driven by affinities across the arts and humanities, he publishes on critical theory, metaphysics, aesthetics, and the history of philosophy. "The Dialectic of ressentiment; pedagogy of a concept" Published by routledge. Accessed 08-19-2024. Pgs: 88-92 URL: https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12657/63996/1/9781000953268.pdf) //MSUCB
ressentiment is a response to a perceived wounding or humiliation it is a delayed reaction that deepens efficacy as hostile sentiment ressentiment is demand for compensation the attempt to claim indemnity for passivity, the [herd] imagine a culprit responsible for hurt, upon whom they exact revenge . This obfuscates original trauma and transforms revenge into a reflexive idea the [herd] never cease to justify themselves through negation and blaming of a hostile world This takes the form of a reversal of pre-existing values which turns weakness into merit Ressentiment is a repercussion due to the inability to restore imaginary justice It may inflict more suffering on the self as a weapon against others . ressentiment is a re-sentiment a feeling made from remainders of others jealousy suspicion rancor malice and bitterness tend towards generalization values spawned by ressentiment set off eruptions of previously arrested as well as new sentiments ressentimental people need the explosions of feeling’ to compensate for internal suffering They hide hatred by pretending to be beautiful souls signaling virtues through fits of disgust and representing justice, love, wisdom, and purity of heart a self-gratification |
0381ba37049a851200d4c4a781214d425d0a184f1cd919cade36f756f4286870 | Senate negotiations breakdown | Abnormality like the plan kills Senate negotiations.
Folley ’24 [Aris; November 8th; "Trump wins tip scales for GOP on government funding;" Hill, https://thehill.com/business/budget/4979972-gop-control-government-funding/]
said deciding how to spend is “ important I would hope we would put a greater priority on deciding how much to spend and getting it done as close to regular order as possible that always involves a conversation between Schumer and myself those conversations haven’t started |
042ee2b7cf7f802df8e2a93e4e9499d64170c2f01917bbd540cfa0427142b7c8 | High carbon prices don't reduce pollution | A. ENERGY DEMAND: It’s inelastic, so consumers won’t shift.
Leah C. Stokes & Matto Mildenberger 20, Stokes is an assistant professor at the University of California Santa Barbara, the author of Short-Circuiting Policy, Mildenberger is an assistant professor at the University of California Santa Barbara, “The Trouble with Carbon Pricing”, Boston Review, 9-24-20, https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/trouble-carbon-pricing/
Norway , which has the highest carbon prices emissions in oil rose 78 percent because of demand inelasticity if no easy alternatives high taxes won’t reduce pollution research suggests limited innovation we lack strong ev carbon pricing induced clean tech corporations will not innovate because of minor tweaks EU reduced emissions by 4 percent reductions are nothing compared to what needs to be done pricing is like bringing a stick to a knife fight |
02991c230b8ced24d5816f46ba2a1f074312da64568fc1ecbceda82f53d234f6 | Keeter and Kennedy 8-28 | The Trump effect is a solvable problem using diverse response methods, increased polling orgs, and adjusting on more variables
Keeter and Kennedy 8-28 [Scott Keeter is a senior survey advisor at Pew Research Center, and Courtney Kennedy is Vice President of Methods and Innovation at Pew Research Center. 8-28-2024 https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/08/28/key-things-to-know-about-us-election-polling-in-2024/]
Confidence in polling shaken by 16 and 20 people are working to fix the problems experimenting with more data sources and approaches number of polling org s has grown significantly shifted from telephone to online or some combination methodologies are far more diverse weighting a poll on just a few variables is insufficient Adjusting on more variables produces more accurate results 2022 saw accurate polling more accurate than in any cycle since 98 with almost no bias if the most recent election there’s plenty of reason to be encouraged observers speculated about shy Trump effect .” But experts turned up no evidence in support other explanations more likely difficulty estimating turn out Republicans little less likely to participate in polls |
02e0592bb91b1d309f6244b10eb0e6de36c46929bd2b7dd9e991d2932fb33a2f | sustainable future | Capitalism is going green.
Kris Cooper 24 (is a reporter working for GlobalData on the Thematic team. They mainly write for a number of finance publications including International Accounting Bulletin, The Accountant, Verdict and Private Banker International. “What is ‘green capitalism’ and can it tackle the climate crisis?” 2/15/24 https://www.energymonitor.ai/finance/sustainable-finance/what-is-green-capitalism-and-can-it-tackle-the-climate-crisis/?cf-view)//conway
capitalism is dynamic and evolving with changing societal values and tech advancements green capitalism’ it is “cheaper to save the world than destroy it”. capitalism consistent with a sustainable future to resolve the climate crisis pursuing decarbonization for profit-making and rent extraction green capitalist framework based on profit and environmental sustainability can be reconciled. given the existence of global threats which endanger humankind right to survive should be asserted as its first fundamental right this is not just philosophical but legal nobody seems to note that the life of all present and futur could be annihilated It is insisting on first debating the rights of a ship instead of taking action in the light of the ship already taking in water challenges like nuclear weapons can hit everybody destroy human civilization shifting of Theory to exclusive attention on intersubjectivity as if nuclear threat critical theorists seem to be reluctant to address philosophical issues raised by global challenges literature on justice misses the point we have to motivate our interest in existence we should assume responsibility for future generations But doing what we can for the survival can give ourselves reassurance that life is meaningful doing so helps us shed isolation and become partners in solidarity human rights can only apply to a living humankind no morality makes sense if it cannot rely on fundamental rights nuclear war have the potential strength to forge all relevant political actors into one community legal formulations cannot be ignored they create educational and political struggles Support from civil society |
010af80fda40a71b535c4713abdcb94667f3b6f2892f57cbb71d2cee1ce70cd6 | Trump oil prices | C. TRUMP.
Irina Slav 11/7. Writer for oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry. “Citi Sees Oil Prices Dropping to $60 Under Trump.” 11/7/24. https://oilprice.com/Energy/nergy-General/Citi-Sees-Oil-Prices-Dropping-to-60-Under-Trump.html
analysts forecast Brent crude average $60 per barrel driven lower by incoming administration tariffs higher production driving factors Trump may influence OPEC+ to convince group to bring supply back presidency lead to decline in geopolitical tensions further contributing to lower prices pro-growth energy policies depress prices deficits sustained with debt The government itself acknowledges prices and spending will squeeze its finances It expects shortfalls through 2027 debt-to-GDP ratio is nearly 30% the government needs crude prices to be over $96 a barrel to balance its budget The figure is even higher when PIF’s domestic spending is taken into account |
03c1502ed5a2075b65380a9f54f898e620b2411003f5d845a40133b9aea5542e | Advisors cause extinction | Advisors causes extinction.
Jackson ’24 [Van; June 18; PhD, Professor of International Relations at Victoria University of Wellington; Un-Diplomatic, “MAGA Geopolitics: Between Extinction and a New Dark Age,” https://www.un-diplomatic.com/p/maga-geopolitics-between-extinction]
China hawks Pottinger called for regime change in Beijing that is a death sentence Miller deploying Marine Corps to Asia and nuc testing Asia’s already a powder keg Adding Marines is likely to cause war If we’re unlucky, we end up with extinction nuclear testing was a common path to Armageddon |
0346889624336f4dd3a79ef14c44b9d27fe9d8fe314d9ddbab9dfc883e8b3aa0 | deontology tautological | Util and consequentialism good
Greene 2010 – Joshua, Associate Professor of Social science in the Department of Psychology at Harvard University (The Secret Joke of Kant’s Soul published in Moral Psychology: Historical and Contemporary Readings, accessed: www.fed.cuhk.edu.hk/~lchang/material/Evolutionary/Developmental/Greene-KantSoul.pdf)
, it is unlikely there is any coherent moral theory that can accommodate moral intuitions Kant fail to distinguish deontology from other approaches to ethics consequentialists are against treating people as objects, by counting every person's well-being deontolog y tautological : But don't explain anything there seems to be "something deeply right" because they give voice to powerful moral emotions . But they don't explain the philosophy in question |
03ee172a815d90b229519f5abb60f4b00d2e2e220d61be2ec416d98f19dccd73 | Thiessen 24 | No link---it’s not tied to Harris.
Marc A. Thiessen. 24. fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the former chief speechwriter for President George W. Bush. “A sitting VP has won once in 188 years. Harris isn’t likely to be next.”. The Washington Post. 8-27-24. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/08/27/kamal-harris-election-sitting-vp/
Harris is running as insurgent treating Trump as incumbent strategy is working poll finds 64 percent say Harris had little influence on Biden’s economic policies |
018678775dd28c5742d15c0a515adc67f1232522b8e9e0ec5f7567f86e5dca9c | climate change existential threat good | B. Elevating climate change to an existential threat reflects consensus AND motivates change, not apathy.
Davidson 23, *Ph.D. from the Department of Sociology at the university of Cambridge **Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge. (*Joe P.L. **Luke Kemp, 12-12-2023, “Climate catastrophe: The value of envisioning the worst-case scenarios of climate change,” WIREs Climate Change, DOI: 10.1002/wcc.871)
Scientists called for exploration of extinction over 11,000 signed statement warning of catastrophic threat posed by climate Critics claim discussion of extreme risks is flawed and counterproductive None of these concerns is convincing There is no reason considering extreme risks slow decarbonisation a lack of risk assessments slow action and create faulty policies Nor is there strong ev that considering risks lead to apathy recent meta-analysis concludes fear-based messaging is effective at changing attitudes , and behaviors and there were no observed situations counterproductive This echoes wider lit erature on fear idea that fear breed fatalism needs greater nuance |
030eaa5dbd2ae1948ff7baa6d9c76217598faab2d6c87dc2d84e44aee917ac50 | military is largest polluter | The plan ends it.
1AC The Black Hive 22, The Black Hive is a collective of more than 200 organizations and individuals representing Black CEJ expertise, ranging from organizers, cultural workers, advocates, and activists, to data scientists, engineers, technologists, and strategists. The Black Hive is at the heart of the Movement for Black Lives (M4BL) climate and environmental justice efforts., The Black Hive, “Energy,” 10/04/2022 (date found using the Internet Wayback Machine), https://theblackhive.org/pillars/energy/, Accessed: 10/16/2024, aks
An end to U.S. imperialism the military is the largest polluter in the world and must withdraw military bases |
0392852d5b03c95cb1c11b2edf03ab9f86e02aa974e01b8c387a1d3eddade361 | Extinction | Extinction
Sung Chul Jung 24. Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy @ Myongji University. “Economic slowdowns and international conflict.” 2024. Journal of Peace Research. 61(2). 180-196. https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/joupea/v61y2024i2p180-196.html
statistical analysis shows economic slowdown increases conflict leaders facing unrest seek diversionary conflict exploiting ideological , identities scholars attributed aggression to domestic problems Russia’s invasion of Ukraine Crimea China’s actions in the S C S more revisionist because economies went downhill state’s economic slowdown change balance of economic so as to favor its competitor increases troubled state’s foreign aggression risk economies pose to international security worsening economies will drive aggressive stance |
Subsets and Splits
No saved queries yet
Save your SQL queries to embed, download, and access them later. Queries will appear here once saved.