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032a8494b66e2de5b3bd7d9f22b7aaf9f2ce23fd65a0f4fc770e37d036cc3097 | John Deacon | “For” means that a policy’s purpose must be “decarbonization.”
Bates ’23 [John Deacon; January 27; Judge; US District Court for the District of Columbia; “Cabrera v. Islamic Republic of Iran, U.S. Dist. 14874]
The word "for" matters "for" indicate[s] the object or purpose of an action One dresses " for " dinner or studies " for " an exam even if the exam never occurs one could read for " to mean " resulting in reference to the intended purpose |
0361eb4ff0493751eac0345c926574b65d6e1ea181a60e2ed64d1b5747b46c89 | contracts and algorithms | 6. Algorithmic contracts are inevitable but uncertain.
Lauren Henry Scholz 17, McConnaughhay and Rissman Professor at the Florida State University College of Law, J.D. from Harvard Law School, “Algorithmic Contracts,” Stanford Technology Law Review, Vol. 20, No. 2, Fall 2017, https://ir.law.fsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1615&context=articles
algorithms creates uncertainty create problems humans are unlikely to foresee Businesses manage their own risks firms poke around looking for patterns once found they operate unlikely using algorithms will change given success uncertainty becomes untenable when many are using algorithms When an algorithm has unpredictable results because a business is not sure what causes positive results business manage internally problem is since algorithms are not operating within anyone’s domain no entity is keeping track of and minimizing risks for unanticipated results that lead to crises nobody understands what went wrong |
0377687e811b18f44cc45c42c78e3d38e0a27167d1ffc23d50bbf59a3d34d405 | seabed mining vs land mining | Our evidence directly frames seabed mining as an alt to land based mining – that means it solves their offense – if there’s any residual link, it’s outweighed by the benefits of a green transition
Segal 23 – Partner at Bracewell LLP and co-head of Bracewell’s Policy Resolution Group with over two decades of experience across a broad range of policy and communications issues, with particular experience dealing with energy, the environment, and natural resources
Cobalt produced in the Congo has been plagued by child labor issues Nickel will be sourced by clear cutting tropical rainforests and displacing Indigenous groups Fortunately polymetallic nodules constitute the richest untapped sources as an alternative to land mining |
000b4e73b20ebac48ef5faefa86364b23f7ec2b0b569773f16a29ac9cb0e9703 | people of color farmed animals | U.S. uniquely vulnerable to zoonotic outbreak due to animal ag.
Harvard Law School, 23. Brooks McCormick Jr. Animal Law and Policy Program at Harvard Law School media release on report authored by its researchers – no author for media release. “Zoonotic Disease Threats in the US Uncovered in Comprehensive New Report.” https://animal.law.harvard.edu/news-article/animal-markets-and-zoonotic-disease/
scale of animal use in the U S makes the country uniquely vulnerable to zoonotic outbreaks The U.S. produces more livestock than almost any other nation In 2022 more than 10 billion the largest number ever recorded USDA does not regulate on-farm production slaughterhouses inspections are cursory each inspector examining more than 600 animals per hour U.S. is one of the world’s largest producers of pigs and poultry mportant carriers of influenza viruses that are most likely to produce a large-scale pandemic Even a slight shift in the viruses’ composition could allow it to move rapidly through human populations people most vulnerable to zoonotic disease . are those who work hands-on with farmed animals disproportionately people of color and rural communities |
004fbd51b53275e61f821c30f77fd412f4861795e1a15d2d9030508d62ae9318 | Sara Dorn Forbes | Newest polls show a lead but it’s razor-thin.
Sara Dorn 9-25. "Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads In 2 New Surveys—Amid Virtual Tie In Swing States." Forbes. 9-25-2024. https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/09/25/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-harris-leads-by-2-points-in-latest-survey/
Harris and Trump close to a dead heat Harris is up 47% to 44% race is virtually tied four-point edge Harris leads two points overall in the seven battleground states Harris leads Trump in six of the seven states individually |
007b89afafa93d25a02c44c474db80b9ab1bcf039b82a0b8722f11ecdfaee225 | alt-right climate deniers | Ecofascists use disinformation to spread their propaganda.
Knights 20 [Sam Knights is a writer, actor, and climate activist. He is the coeditor of This Is Not a Drill: An Extinction Rebellion Handbook. 11-16-20, The Climate Movement Must Be Ready To Challenge Rising Right-Wing Environmentalism, Jacobin, https://jacobin.com/2020/11/climate-change-right-wing-environmentalism-alt-right-eco-fascism, JKS]
t he alt-right is made up of climate deniers” and “eco-fascists Right-wing leaders understand the world is increasingly divided. Different messages work on different people and can be tailored to subcultures It is a strategic advantage if your ideology is adaptable and ambiguous enough to accommodate as many people as possible. Right-wing activists have mobilized their networks to spread disinformation There are fears that this brand of conspiracism has become widespre Could the same thing happen to climate activists? is it already happening? |
00fde7caae70570c78232c9c451fd0a707675a21d0a2db893bf554013e72635c | CFTC fraud allegations | Enforcement thumps
Davis et al 11/15 [Elizabeth Lan Davis1, Walker Stanovsky2, and Michael P. McDonald3, 1Partner and co-chairs the firm’s national financial services practice with two decades of experience at the CFTC and SEC, 2Associate who practices energy and climate change law, 3Associate who advises clients in the areas of investment advisory and regulatory enforcement defense and previously worked as a SEC investment advisor, "Significant Changes in CFTC's Final Guidance on Listing Voluntary Carbon Credit Derivatives", No Publication, 11-15-2024, https://www.dwt.com/blogs/financial-services-law-advisor/2024/11/cftc-final-guidance-on-vcc-carbon-credit-trading]
CFTC alleging fraud against Newcombe increased scrutiny demonstrates CFTC's proactive stance in shaping regulatory framework standardization aims create reliable m arket participants should review to ensure compliance developments will be crucial |
0066c82b4e3fbec6d2aeb4c8cffd1cea5aa43cc5fdedfecf62d66283922cc452 | China military matches US | China is revisionist power---military modernization causes war
Jagannath P. Panda, Research Fellow and Coordinator of the East Asia Centre at MP-IDSA, New Delhi, 5-19-20, ‘“China as a Revisionist Power in Indo-Pacific and India’s Perception: A Power-Partner Contention” JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY CHINA2020, AHEAD-OF-PRINT, 1-17https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epub/10.1080/10670564.2020.1766906?needAccess=true
China’s revisionist power are appositely clear fast-track infrastructure through the BRI assertive claims in maritime domains claims over land territories attempts to create a distinct order through international institutions the tag of revisionism appears justified an article by the Chinese M F A highlights the country’s dissatisfaction dissatisfaction is no secret debates in China are center around revisions until China’s military match US, major war in not foreseen a revisionist power will ‘ employ military force’ |
0024d2e00f41c0946874fcdbd1fae7f01f5ddc076ee7dcbc0bf83b4322566f06 | Russell Ruderman | 1NC 2: Not enough minerals is oil industry propaganda.
Russell Ruderman 23. Russell E. Ruderman is an American politician and was a Democratic member of the Hawaii Senate from 2012 to 2020 representing District 2. “Russell Ruderman: Dispelling The Disinformation On Electric Vehicles.” 10/16/23. https://www.civilbeat.org/2023/10/russell-ruderman-dispelling-the-disinformation-on-electric-vehicles/
cobalt is being phased out New techniques made lithium available from seawater newest battery use no rare minerals rapid advances lessening concerns same cannot be said about fossil fuels oil industry PR minerals in batteries recharged and used for years recycled and reused burning of oil requires more oil more mining let’s not lose sight of the big picture let’s assume we are mining rare minerals in destructive manner we must compare this to oil wells , pipelines wars spillage impacts are a thousand times greater is an easy choice learn to recognize oil industry propaganda |
0103d02d36ceafa42474de75f2b5ba363cd1c3046657746360625fa8104ba84b | marxist epistemology revolution | Capitalism is accelerating toward extinction and global fascism — the fundamental question at the heart of the left is developing tools for organization and tactics to bring about revolution.
Escalante 19, M.A. in Philosophy at the University of Oregon, Marxist-Leninist, feminist and anti-imperialist activist. (Alyson, September 8, 2019, “Truth and Practice: The Marxist Theory of Knowledge,” tinyurl.com/8jksnexs)
The world is in a dire state Capitalist production created a climate crisis that leaves us on the brink of extinction Governments turning to fascist leaders to assuage fears and the most marginalized suffer Whole countries are destroyed in bids for fossil fuels The need for revolutionary movement has never been so clear people realize capitalism and imperialism are the problem and we must unite for a better world how will we know what tactics to unite around? masses do not want defeat they want to fight back What is at stake in questions of Marxist epistemology is the possibility of revolution We must defend this possibility |
027c53a769f995ee5d6bd93a12f707a3fd7abd88f0d8aa63ff22cffeb442c2da | PARK 2024 | (UNIQUENESS) Renewables are increasing but are not scaling up to the scope of fossil fuel use
PARK 2024 (Lindsey, sustainability analyst @ Allianz global investors. Allianz offers investment strategies and is a pioneer in sustainable investing for more than two decades, “Energy transition: time to clear the air “, Allianz, Feb 9, https://www.allianzgi.com/en/insights/outlook-and-commentary/energy-transition-time-to-clear-the-air [CORNELL DBT] note://// indicates par. breaks)[AR SUMMER24]
Despit momentum, renewable energy capacity remains low only 5% of global energy currently comes from wind and solar power , coal usage is at record levels the current annual additional capacity added in nuclear and renewables is insufficient to meaningfully address the transition from high-emitting energy sources |
0414042a9b41daba1d6dd1cdfd08e84a826ac11529fab2da9f5313052888ba25 | IPCC hot model problem | 4. No existential climate impact.
Nicola Scafetta 24. Ph.D.; Associate Professor, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Naples Federico II. "Impacts and Risks of ‘Realistic’ Global Warming Projections for the 21st Century." Geoscience Frontiers, Volume 15, Issue 2.
IPCC acknowledged a hot model problem according to empirical studies actual values could between 1 and 2 °C worst-case IPCC reports for the 21st century low confidence any change in frequency severity or extent of drought fire storms erosion heatwaves air pollution radiation recent research argued alarmistic scenarios are very unrealistic warming will be moderate at a slower rate than predicted GCM warmer in comparison to alternative records such as satellite-based and contamination from non-climatic factors GCMs grossly inadequate alternative uses empirical modifications of ensembles via linear scaling accurately represent warming from 80 to 22 growing evidence of warming biases and natural variability no evidence of impending disaster |
01e065fca91d63be4347d16fac3b7d8b341f04d33fcba007f92d1b294a724e4d | C---POLICY | C---POLICY
policy1
a definite course of action |
02e2c1152cbcec0ec4ae8c9a6c33d6f7098498b3990ac1554bd7447a8730a177 | Federal Reserve stabilize economy | No recession---every metric projects solid growth.
Lauren Schwahn 3-3, personal finance writer, “Are We in a Recession?”, Nerd Wallet, 3-3-25, https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/are-we-in-a-recession
the economy has been resilient the U.S. is not in a recession economy is quite strong , according to most measures Federal Reserve plays a big role to stabilize the economy It's a tricky balance 2025 The Fed paused rates |
0413bce793c94fb9d7b8dae84fec88d2fa7d9ea80c21d1023ccaa91bfe2f6d90 | definition of US federal | ‘Federal’ government is national.
Thompson ’21 [Thompson School District; 2021; Public school district for Loveland, Colorado and surrounding area; Thompson Schools, “Structures of Government,” https://www.thompsonschools.org/cms/lib/CO01900772/Centricity/Domain/3627/Structures%20of%20Government.pdf]
In the U S ‘ Federal refer to National Government the 50 state s are not federal |
02584b837ebe60a0e991d4f270c3c1215eebd5cc5c8bd656b7b7113b160e680e | CBA WTO disputes | Including a CBA turns climate leadership – developing countries view it as unfair and it sparks WTO disputes.
Wang 21, *and **, Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, ***School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, †Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development, Tsinghua University (*Hailin, **Xiaodan Huang, ***Xiaofan Zhao, †Jiankun He. “Key global climate governance problems and Chinese countermeasures” Chinese Journal of Population, Resources, and Environment, Volume 19, Issue 2, June 2021, Pages 125-132, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2325426221000917#sec5) rose
b c a is counterproductive to countries realizing emission reduction targets but will also lead to a new round of trade disputes This is conducive neither to international climate governance nor advancing global cooperation on climate |
0088afc20b1ce9735fe8b653f22096b968e0f97a152b6d935e81dcc44cbbf3f1 | Harris flipped script on economy | Has flipped script on the ecnomy, but it’s fragile
Knox 8—12 [Olivier Knox, journalist, “Harris Hones Her Economic Message,” U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, 8—12—24, https://www.usnews.com/news/u-s-news-decision-points/articles/2024-08-12/kamala-harris-hones-her-economic-message-to-voters, accessed 8-22-24]
Voters have been sour on Biden economic record But Harris momentum is real , for now she's flipped the script candidate is ahead on the economy |
0389689b8e6e85090a1a8f16196922b74bf3d239341d68c2b3f1c7b1e92dc0d2 | jet fuel expensive | It triggers lobbying backlash AND the link zeroes case.
Steve Large 24, Reporter for CBS, “Could California become the first US state to regulate airline emissions?” CBS News, 9/24/24, https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/could-california-become-the-first-us-state-to-regulate-airline-emissions
Airlines lobbying against regulations Making jet fuel more expensive does not incentivize airlines to buy more s a f and does not incentivize producers to increase production it's a clash of the titans Airlines consider themselves international players that can't be touched |
01c5ecaa5131af90106ca9e1db306dbd8d524763420f8217fe8cdce18a9d7f52 | Market based instruments vs regulation | Market-based instruments require that the marginal damage caused by pollution be reflected in the marginal cost of polluting activities – the plan is a regulatory instrument which is distinct.
Johanna Arlinghaus 17, Assistant Professor of Economics and Sustainability at the Hertie School; and Kurt Van Dender, Head of the Tax and Environment Unit at the OECD's Centre for Tax Policy and Administration, May 2017, “Environmental Fiscal Reform: Progress, Prospects and Pitfalls,” https://www.mase.gov.it/sites/default/files/archivio_immagini/Galletti/G7/5_G7_env_oecd_environmental_fiscal_reform_may_2017.pdf
This section provides definitions used in discussion of fiscal reform M b i s address market failure of externalities' either incorporating external cost of production or consumption through taxes or creating property rights facilitating proxy market for use of environmental services internalisation makes sure damage by pollution is reflected in market prices. M b i s different from reg s latter do not directly modify prices , even if compliance is costly environmental taxes align tax rates with (marginal) external costs |
030df4f617ac3788f03d4376ebda3265a6d143bb8c721ef8dc0372317b743315 | energy democracy | The U.S. grid is staggeringly complex and cannot be centrally-planned. Publicly owned grids being good in the abstract tells us nothing about how to get from here to there. BUT, mechanisms like the plan are empirically effective for breaking the stranglehold of current utilities.
Walter 23 - Professor of Law at Texas A&M University.
physics demand the grid be perfectly balanced in supply and demand at the microsecond level This requires private intermediaries that operate switches power providers must be paid price-making based on optimization of staggering complexity details are designed by economists and industry The grid requires long-term planning for capacity despite managerialism participatory reforms helped bring consciousness into day-to-day operation Democratic Innovation inevitably beyond managerialism new entrants to power sector bring new business models climate change and imperative to decarbonize is in tension with keeping flow of power going The fight is taking back energy democracy from RTOs CAISO has been at the forefront to democratize grid management incorporating law as petition for rulemaking open to all comers regardless of status as a market participant |
01fc364bd231b7e2eab6f9cfb3456c0aee376a7643d93b7a28ff0c4ccf2e5c14 | markets better than central planning | Central planning for the current population with green energy is infeasible and destroys the globe---markets solve.
Cwik and Engelhardt 23, *Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of Mount Olive, **Associate Professor of Economics at Kent State University (*Paul F., **Lucas M., 2023, “Revisiting the Computation Problem,” The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, Vol. 26, No. 3, University of Kansas Libraries, Lib Key)
8 billion consumers would require twenty million gigawatt-hours of power fifty billion acres of wind could generate the power. The area of the earth is 126 billion of which 70 percent is water solar farm requires an area larger than Russia The vastness of transactions precludes solving this What is the solution? the market If the problem is broken into smaller pieces market use prices to summarize the info needed reason to deny feasibility of central planning |
015945a7243ee8d386939b52e041ad1c6c1d83af4f9bb3cb35260b630f1888ed | Julian Noisecat indigenous | Indigenous political engagement is extremely successful because it co-opts the language of the state to strategically advance native interests while continuing to engage in movements outside the state.
Noisecat 17, 11th Hour Fellow at New America as well as a Fellow of the Type Media Center. Enrolled member of the Canim Lake Band Tsq'escen in British Columbia and a graduate of Columbia University and the University of Oxford (Julian, January 15th, “When the Indians Defeat the Cowboys,” Jacobin Magazine, https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/01/standing-rock-indigenous-american-progress)
movement to stop Dakota Access and protect water indigenous rights like never before it would be a terrible mistake to characterize the victory at Standing Rock as fleeting indigenous cousins have long been organizing , litigating , and fighting for wins like Standing Rock climate change threatens to scorch indigenous rights are essential to protecting waters Standing Rock, monumental victory seized the reins of progress , opening up new frontiers of struggle for the many Standing Rocks that lie ahead political theorists often buy into the feathers-and-failure narrative Wolfe structure not an event theory ran into reality If settler societies are structurally dependent upon the elimination of the Native, how do we explain the resurgence of that same Native How do we explain the global emergence of recognition , and land rights How do we explain Standing Rock Wolfe’s theory is a gussied-up version of the inevitable victory of Cowboys over Indians — a reworking of Victorian ideology as critical theory The indigenous story unfolding before us demands more social democracy have been beaten back by the free market consensus . Yet over these same decades, indigenous rights gained ground often-overlooked indigenous victories belongs to indigenous movements pressured states to recognize their demands the stubborn dream of indigenous resurgence endured Indian New Deal ” afforded tribes greater control the Red Power movement policies based on recognition Maori Renaissance in New Zealand and land rights movement in Australia won similar gains More often indigenous people have coopted conservative forces as agents of an indigenous agenda indigenous people moved debate and policy in directions favorable to their interests Self-determination is now the established framework through the U N D R I P these are remarkable victories condescending assumption turned out to be dead wrong . And it opened up pathways to victory indigenous people emerge as cunning political tricksters into the courts . They outsmarted and outflanked politicians by simultaneously pressuring and cozying up to them they won important and lasting concessions bit by bit provided indigenous nations with access to government as well as leverage to deliver devastating blows to carbon capitalism even if their goals take decades to achieve. Politics is a long game effective resistance is strategic even more impactful when paired with subtle and cunning forms of persuasion . This is especially essential for [indigenous peoples] The Left incorporating an indigenous platform into the next generation of radical coalitions alongside discussed forms of oppression |
000b4e73b20ebac48ef5faefa86364b23f7ec2b0b569773f16a29ac9cb0e9703 | animal ag zoonotic outbreak | U.S. uniquely vulnerable to zoonotic outbreak due to animal ag.
Harvard Law School, 23. Brooks McCormick Jr. Animal Law and Policy Program at Harvard Law School media release on report authored by its researchers – no author for media release. “Zoonotic Disease Threats in the US Uncovered in Comprehensive New Report.” https://animal.law.harvard.edu/news-article/animal-markets-and-zoonotic-disease/
scale of animal use in the U S makes the country uniquely vulnerable to zoonotic outbreaks The U.S. produces more livestock than almost any other nation In 2022 more than 10 billion the largest number ever recorded USDA does not regulate on-farm production slaughterhouses inspections are cursory each inspector examining more than 600 animals per hour U.S. is one of the world’s largest producers of pigs and poultry mportant carriers of influenza viruses that are most likely to produce a large-scale pandemic Even a slight shift in the viruses’ composition could allow it to move rapidly through human populations people most vulnerable to zoonotic disease . are those who work hands-on with farmed animals disproportionately people of color and rural communities |
03c331cde78b6807871dfd80cbca6f59407224060565e131742c4c9e4053d711 | emissions peaked 32 countries | 4—Best stats prove decoupling.
Hausfather 21 - (Zeke Hausfather, Director of Climate and Energy at Breakthrough, PhD in climate science from the University of California, Berkeley, masters degrees in environmental science from Yale University and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; 4-6-2021, Breakthrough Institute, "Absolute Decoupling of Economic Growth and Emissions in 32 Countries," doa: 11-10-2021) url: https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/absolute-decoupling-of-economic-growth-and-emissions-in-32-countries
poverty fallen Life expectancy risen literacy and education propelled by growth coal peaked peak oil is upon us the world is on track to absolutely decouple emissions peaked 32 countries have absolutely decoupled no relationship between growth and emissions emissions “exported” declined |
03fa1fc79f917f15556f0c60eb5ed22f2145e0520e6fbabb9b96643b8e80141a | Karlsson 21 | Capitalism is sustainable otherwise transition wars.
Karlsson 21 - (Rasmus Karlsson, Department of Political Science, Umeå University; 6-18-2021, Social Theory for the Anthropocene: Thinking and Acting in a Disrupted Planet, "Learning in the Anthropocene," doa: 2-25-2022) url: https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/10/6/233
Experiencing permanent scarcity conflict was endemic to pre-capitalist societies . already accumulated emissions exceeds the 1.5-degree target even if all stop today . removal will require an advanced industrial society . behavioral change remains insufficient or provokes a strong political counterreaction . countries committed to growth gain a military advantage . a collapsing economy lead to survivalist values and violence large-scale carbon capture tech appear essential use will become necessary if disaster is to be avoided |
0148c37d3bff4f004739faccce761b5d15ef610a9e0e4dd3bd84d499b5825500 | climate change ethical gateway issue | It is try or die for students to develop solution oriented modes of politics. Preventing warming from continuing unabated is an ethical gateway issue
Levine 23 (Caroline Levine is a professor of humanities at Cornell University. 10/17/23, The Activist Humanist: Form and Method in the Climate Crisis, Princeton University Press)//SHP
students feel bleak and terrorstruck climate change defeats them overwhelmed by the prospect of dismantling structures students fall back on their own actions cannot imagine working at a scale larger than individual decision making which is the scale of isolation and hopelessness no models of effective political action thinkers urge us to open ourselves to possibilities undo ideas resist imperatives unlearn illusion s This leads to powerlessness scholars moving between longings for a “wholesale dismantling and embrace of “the minor gesture Caught between gloom and actions too insubstantial humanists move to mourning actively reinforcing withdrawal from the public sphere there is a whole register missing between global revolution and the small-scale act the scale of collective life . Politics is the work of living in common decisions about space time power and resources it is true institutions are corrupt But can it be that our only option is to refuse action and accede to extinction? Climate change is magnifying the suffering of the most vulnerable To allow it to unfold is to acquiesce to violence on a scale, more immense than all past genocides. |
0227b5bcd40a0bd0802464aeea2e35bf5070dd4bccc4bdfcc2e322f0ad3ef985 | Spash 2020 | C – Capital’s focus on efficiency leads to deregulation and lobbying for exemptions. That causes accumulation.
Spash 20 - Clive Spash 2020 (Clive is an economist, Professor of Public Policy and Governance at the Vienna University of Economics and Business, Editor-in-Chief of Environmental Values, and former President of the European Society for Ecological Economics. His works cover climate change, biodiversity loss, air pollution and conservation. He advocates social–ecological transformation and a paradigm shift in economic thought. "The capitalist passive environmental revolution" Published by the ecological citizen. Accessed 11-09-2024. URL: https://www.ecologicalcitizen.net/pdfs/v04n1-12.pdf) //MSUCB
Corporations market growth as green, circular, inclusive, sustainable and smart soft policies are combined with lobbying media control funding of denialism and antienvironmental think tanks The latest rhetoric is sustainable finance’ Insurers profit from catastrophes For ‘sustainable financiers’, more harm means making more money A claim that the system’ can be ‘adjusted’ without removing corporate or capitalist structures unregulated financialization can be made into a tradable financial asset capital-accumulating economy is no longer the cause of social–ecological crises but their solution |
0248c307fd410199a7ece98d4689ab0ec61cabcd50e46fee65b2f2444b43f9b3 | states not taking on significant liability | The EPA won’t let states assume liability.
Carna 24, *chair of the firm’s oil and gas practice; lawyers. (*Anthony, Andrew F. Gann, Jr., David A. Franchina, Allison D. Wood, Christina Lepore Hinton, Mitchell D. Diles, 7/26/2024, “EPA, States Differ on Approach to Carbon Capture and Storage Facility Liability,” McGuireWoods, https://www.mcguirewoods.com/client-resources/alerts/2024/7/epa-states-differ-on-approach-to-carbon-capture-and-storage-facility-liability/)
EPA reluctant to grant states primacy if they transfer liability EPA believe the federal approach ensures higher safety and that EPA should be responsible ensure states are not taking on significant liability |
03a8340df0747757e3fbc0289393f8977a9de33ca9ccce41200bcdb0bb8cddef | Trump transactional approach alliances | TURNS SAUDI. Ends the global alliance system.
Wolf 24 [Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000. “A Trump win would change the world.” https://www.ft.com/content/4a14c19e-8285-4688-aa19-542023520798]
Trump’s transactional approach destroy US alliances But the alliance needs a leader With Russia threatening Europe and China alliances are more important than ever for the US Trump neither understands nor cares |
00e85bcb5d8c009094928817e2c239885581daa603ecf2c466580c69b1dcd641 | chlorine destroy thousands of ozone | Chlorine gas catalyzes positive feedback loops which shatter the ozone layer.
Ozone Watch NASA 18. “What is the Ozone Hole.” Ozone Watch. 10/18/2018. https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/hole_SH.html
ozone hole is caused by chemicals in the atmosphere free chlorine participate in reactions that destroy ozone and return the atom unchanged reactions convert inactive chemicals into active forms especially chlorine gas A catalytic reaction allows a single chlorine to destroy thousands of ozone molecules |
02be25abd9cfa9e0a781a3f8ef17888e1ca39e07eb3c1c488a1609b0a18d4401 | tariffs perceived as unfair abroad | The CP causes climate policy rollback and fossil subsidization abroad---cost equalization is key.
Clausing and Wolfram 23, *Eric M. Zolt Chair in Tax Law and Policy at the University of California Los Angelas Law School, **William Barton Rogers Professor of Energy Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (*Kimberly A. Clausing, **Catherine Wolfram, 2023, “Carbon Border Adjustments, Climate Clubs, and Subsidy Races When Climate Policies Vary,” The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 37, No. 3, University of Kansas Libraries, JSTOR)
tariffs are perceived as unfair abroad For those imposing carbon costs and a c b a a tariff would keep intact competitive disadvantage faced by their producers relative to US This could unravel efficient policies as foreign producers suspect a level field is impossible producers seek countervailing subsidies to maintain fair competition . Such could unravel climate policies and result in timid governments |
030c8cf75971c4ac29ace0afbcd9e101ed28b5de778ea21ddf3100b1fd80c244 | US should verb means action | “USFG should” means the aff has the burden of defending hypothetical government action, AKA fiat.
Ericson 3 (Jon M., Dean Emeritus of the College of Liberal Arts – California Polytechnic U., et al., The Debater’s Guide, Third Edition, p. 4)
in The U S should The verb means to put a policy into action though governmental means The entire debate is about whether something ought to occur What you agree to do when you accept the affirmative side is to offer sufficient and compelling reasons for an audience to perform the future action humility , is understanding limits of our knowledge to engage in change-making , important to understand contradictions of our ways of knowing so we can engage without trying to project delusions we can’t create different system people want results straight away This is a replacement of securities that were promised by the other system We end up reproducing old system whether we like or not what we need is experimentation failure becomes fertilizer for something else in terms of learning it generates if you think this is a process from A to B you’re going to be frustrated if you understand there’s no end , and that the process is what you’re looking for joy that comes out then we are in very different footing to tackle crisis thinking about change vis-à-vis those who are next opens a different approach shift focus of our learning from outcomes to process helping journey rather than trying to replace securities with same securities disguised as something else if we shift our ontological reality this open up possibilities are unimaginable at moment |
038d7f8a18faebce6f9d88e02e941d39058ebeb3800345dd9b65665b5def9b1d | climate risk carbon bubble | Those investors currently perceive that meaningful climate action is incredibly unlikely. Unanticipated change spurs rapid stranding as the value of carbon assets immediately plummets, which ripples across the financial system and causes recession
Martins and Hendry 24 – Senior Research Fellow in Economics at the Global Priorities Institute at the University of Oxford, Professor at Imperial College London, PhD and M.A. in Economics from the University of Minho; Co-director of Climate Econometrics, Senior Research Fellow, and Professor of Economics at Oxford University, former President of the Royal Economic Society, PhD and MSc in Economics from the University of London, holder of 8 honorary doctorates.
inefficiently pricing climate risks creat a carbon bubble’ Investment s are starting to retreat from fossil fuel the timing and speed of transition could lead to sudden unanticipated adjustments expectations about policies contribute to transition risk by prompting reassessment of assets disorderly transition will result if investors fail to anticipate climate policies precipitating large falls in values These will be amplified by interconnectedness of the financial system workers may be stranded’ falling property values lead to widespread mortgage defaults creating another Great Recession |
01ca32aee59ca261a9f69aa0d62cf1ecb668c39119c7c7e0aec9c0aec6959177 | Reparations reify white dominance | Reparations are grounded in white supremacy and only seek to reify white dominance
Harriot - 22[Michael Harriot; April 13; 2022 Top 10 reasons why lineage-based reparations is a bad plan https://reparationscomm.org/reparations-news/10-reasons-why-lineage-based-reparations-is-a-bad-plan/|DOA: 7-24-23]-rrm
limit the resulting reparations to Black people whose ancestors were enslaved in the United States , spark robust debate about who is deserving of reparations undoing the legacy and history of slavery is not simple foundation rests on the precepts of white supremacy created the disparities reparations are intended to erase based on white history excludes the descendants who were enslaved in America by anyone other than English settlers white mat MAGA form of racism known as “economic anxiety |
00dffe52f8083e999f5346dd00bf692db1b3971ce686a0ad3ff584869ed1ba1f | fragile states depend on oil | The aff’s sudden decarbonization destabilizes oil producing countries, which cause wars that kill billions.
Benjamin Spatz 21 doctoral candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a Jennings Randolph Peace Scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace; with Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University; Aditya Sarkar, Ph.D. candidate at the Fletcher School, at Tufts University; and Tegan Blaine, doctorate in oceanography and climate from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the director of climate, environment & conflict at the U.S. Institute of Peace. "Can the World Go Green Without Destabilizing Oil-Pumping Nations?," Jun 23 2021 https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/06/can-world-go-green-without-destabilizing-oil-pumping-nations NL
transition to renewable could destabilize fragile states that depend on oil exports unplanned “traumatic decarbonization” Oil Buys Stability leaders pursue political survival by cutting deals among violent factions involve the cash from oil greening creates violence on a global scale generate risks in dozens whose population will be in the billions. institutions are weak corruption , cronyism or oligarchies oil is controlled by the elite central to deals with implications for stability. high oil prices accompany stronger peacemaking processes When oil slumped in the 2010s, peace became thinner transition to green economy will push elites to seek new revenues the scrambles will create risks The Company intends to maintain its position as the world’s leading producer The expansion of production outlined in Aramco’s prospectus amounts to determination a revenue stream larger than any other company in the world: $244 billion Saudi Arabia will not voluntarily phase out oil while demand still exists The $244 billion in revenues provided 63% of government revenues contributed 43% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP regime survival and external security remain reliant on oil rents Aramco’s extraordinary rents persuade the public to support al-Saud Protecting the business is a strategic and economic imperative collapse of the Saudi would have grave implications creates vacuum for radical jihadist groups pushing against the Saudi border civil war, instability, and sectarian tension would be fertile ground for groups to grow and expand control perpetuate regional instability Washington has expressed concerns about escalating in Saudi Arabia Instability would encourage Egypt , Jordan , Iran , Pakistan , U.S to react face pressure to intervene militarily geopolitical tsunami would have enormous consequences Iran would attempt to capitalize on a regional power vacuum no clear Sunni successor state Egypt’s economy is weak and Jordan is surrounded by instability Saudi Arabia would send international markets into free fall severe global economic crisis catastrophic and disastrous for the world . |
0418b4e9ea8d15e9baf06e6c15abdea6ff6b3fa4341bc1b53dea0601a8a4c185 | Roberts dismantled jurisprudence | 6---AFF doesn’t spill over to broader precedent
Sarah Chayes 2024, prizewinning journalist and internationally recognized expert on corruption in government networks throughout the world, “It’s Official: The Supreme Court Ignores Its Own Precedent”, July 19, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/07/supreme-court-immunity-corruption/679107/, accessed 9/13/24, HMc
Nothing suggests the majority has respect for its own prior work Roberts has contradicted precedent he himself authored take note of whom the outcome favors. Dobbs similarly disdained precedent justices are not licensed to say that the law is whatever they want it to be. gripped by an ideological bent for protecting executives’ Roberts dismantled jurisprudence Trump needed no pretext Roberts legacy may include encouraging him they’re willing to torture logic |
00c9300dc9e558b22b77b121e22bc78a01a222eca7034434d2407c36d86bfdcc | Biden cash on renewables | A---LINK UNIQUENESS. Biden’s already dumped cash on renewables and set stringent regulations.
Corbyn 24, freelance journalist. (Zoe, 8 April 2024, “Boom times for US green energy as federal cash flows in,” BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68667140) <<Pictures Omitted>>
the IRA, along with the BIL funnel billions into clean energy a cost now predicted to reach over 1tn the IRA offers juicer tax credits, as well as loans |
00b59e036e226d676854004362292a75bb0c3f1fe016029e755c11a25e601d22 | organized labor supports CCS | Endorsing CCS gets organized labor on board.
Cohen 19, Rachel Cohen, a reporter who focuses on US social policy. Based in Washington, DC, she keeps a close eye on the politics influencing policy development and the leaders, activists, and researchers spearheading those ideas, The Intercept, 09-20-2019, [“The Environmental Left Is Softening on Carbon Capture Technology. Maybe That’s OK.,” https://theintercept.com/2019/09/20/carbon-capture-technology-unions-labor/, 08-25-2024]rrf
opposition to carbon capture is rooted largely in politics nearly all of organized labor is committed to advancing the technology Unions will be a key constituency to organize in the fight to pass any sort of Green New Dea Union rep s support carbon capture because it will help preserve jobs in the fossil fuel industry, while also taking steps to tackle a warming planet Even if we close every coal fire plant in America it doesn’t change the fact that carbon capture is a thing we must do globally at scale As opposed to the current patchwork of LTS solutions in the U.S., a nation-wide program can be considered The benefits could include broader geographic coverage more consistent and comprehensive assumption of liability; and the presumed financial efficiency/risk diversification of having one larger Trust that can allow lower funding requirements vis-à-vis smaller ones |
00b7274e9ea936f8aeab11794476e27f83b14ed7f27bbde33aafcc84a7e5c2e1 | Grid collapse is existential | Grid collapse is existential in it of itself --- but also nuclear war
Guterl 12 – Executive Editor and award-winning journalist, Scientific American
Backup generators would rely on fuel in high demand Businesses would run out of inventory deliveries would cease ( no gasoline trucks planes trains trucking in supplies would not be adequate to cover hundreds of millions loss in human life would quickly nuclear-exchange scenarios |
00a6556a4f5232f1d1a941d108071a29d1e69be225481ea87234b6998a735c82 | climate and trade policy | Firm-level BCA causes tech transfer.
Xan Fishman et. al 24. Senior Director, Energy Program, Bipartisan Policy Center; MA, Tel Aviv University. John Jacobs: Senior Policy Analyst, Energy Program, Bipartisan Policy Center; MPP, George Washington Trachtenberg School of Public Policy. George David Banks: Chief Strategist (R), House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis; former adjunct research scholar, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University; JD, George Mason University. Daniel Elizalde: Policy Analyst, Energy Program, Bipartisan Policy Center; MPP, American University’s School of Public Affairs. “Designing a Climate and Trade Policy Fit for the United States.” Bipartisan Policy Center. Jul. 2024. https://bipartisanpolicy.org/download/?file=/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/BPC-24_Energy-Emissions-Performance_R05.pdf.
an EPBCA could apply based on individual firms this accelerate transfer of low-carbon technologies to developing countries that host foreign production |
035db52964b3f7e70a70e9d80b8f945c55807a2288c2b765c1704549c60185cf | Muriga et al | US still ahead.
Muriga et al., 2/1 – citing Helen Toner, AI policy analyst @ Georgetown’s center for security and emerging tech. (Madhumita Murgia, Richard Waters and Eleanor Olcott. (2-1-2025). The global AI race: Is China catching up to the U.S.?. financialpost. https://financialpost.com/financial-times/ai-china-catching-up-us?utm_source=pocket_saves; Neo)
DeepSeek’s breakthrough just one among many hard to tell how it change industry advances emulat US counterparts What would really turn the tables is if they built something that actually pushed the frontier |
007ea39d79a824ffc25ea66d35ff674b927b21b29dac5eca0eb6a74c0d6d0cb0 | MENA region CBRN | MENA-based terror is a unique vector for CBRN incidents.
Hassan Farhat et al. 24, MSc, Quality Improvement Mentor, Quality Patient Safety & Risk Management, Ambulance Service Group, Hamad Medical Corporation; Dr. Guillaume Alinier, PhD, Director, Research, Ambulance Service, Hamad Medical Corporation; Mariana Helou, MD, Clinical Assistant Professor & Clerkship Director, Emergency Room, Division Head of Emergency Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation; Ionnais Galatis, MD, Consultant, Allergy & Clinical Immunology, Medical/Hospital/Ops CBRNE Planner/Instructor, Senior Asymmetric Threats Analyst, & Research Associate, Center for Security Studies. Retired Brigadier General; Dr. Nidaa Bajow, MD, PhD, Disaster Medicine Coordinator & Disaster Medicine Training Supervisor, Disaster Medicine Unit, The Ambulance Service, Hamad Medical Corporation, "Perspectives on Preparedness for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Threats in the Middle East and North Africa Region: Application of Artificial Intelligence Techniques," Health Security, Vol. 22, No. 3, 06/17/2024 pg. 5-6.
risk of chem bio radiological , and nuc incidents increased studies indicated role of terrorist groups in weaponising agents In MENA groups pose significant risks and lead to widespread emergencies it has devastating vulnerabilities due to cross-border risks strategically located between three continents which increases exposure to deliberate and accidental CBRN incidents a global econ power witnessed multiple conflicts involving chem weapons increasing risk |
003e8c33adfc4836b47a9740ae3af506affee8f145872953eddcf9421c225ad3 | Capture state power peacefully | D. POLITICS: A model of debate where debater are incentivized to compare plans to alternatives to find the best solutions to the challenges of our generation is best for political organizing. “You link you lose” relegates the left to the margins of politics.
Rahnema 17 (Saeed, Retired Professor of Political Science and Public Policy and the Founding Director of the School of Public Policy and Administration at York University, “Introduction: The Question of Transition from Capitalism,” in The Transition from Capitalism: Marxist Perspectives, p. 17-21) NIJ
activists are at their weakest point and bogged down in idealistic interp s this has stymied thinking and praxis and helped keep the left in the margins Practical ways are not taken into consideration development is an uninterrupted endless continuum through which structures are gradually formed the new order begins from the process of preparing establishment of counter hegemony This phase is an incessant and steady struggle toward political change The aim is to capture state power not with the aim of smashing it but as far as possible in a peaceful way with aim of changing its relations radical social democracy needs powerful organizational means and confrontational tactics success depends upon education and organization parties with clearly spelled-out agendas this is protracted and difficult However has far better chances of success compared with the imagined alt of toppling system(s) through political revolution(s) of avant-garde minorities It needs daring theoretical revisions and practical thinking Radical social democracy seeks to meld militancy of the revolutionary approach with the pragmatism of incremental reform |
01470c639390a43ad2e180c40fc0ab0dd88fe60182bf854c9a0cef88ad67665f | It's declining, and tech solves | It’s declining, and tech solves
Marshall et al 19 – Economist at USDA-Economic Research Service. PhD in Agricultural and Applied Economics from the University of Minnesota.
National Resources Inventory shows erosion on cultivated cropland declined 45 percent Changing incentives through Federal programs interact with the evolving availability of technology to influence farmers' production decisions, resource use, and quality |
03e330953fc9ce9c062ff08340f7554a9f751f0612ccdcd5a5ebb6477d5e44aa | clean energy policies | The GOP will fight tooth and nail against any climate bill – it’ll take a lot to get clean energy policies through
Tamborrino & Siegel 23 [Kelsey Tamborrino and Josh Siegel, "Big winners from Biden's climate law: Republicans who voted against it," POLITICO, 1-23-2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/23/red-states-are-winning-big-from-dems-climate-law-00078420, Bittner]
They didn’t vote for it, don’t like it and work to undermine climate law a balancing act for the GOP: Tout the jobs but not the bill clean power failed to sway a single vote people fought tooth and nail against the bill Republicans moved to slash funding of the agency charged with implementing climate law’s incentives Trump urged GOP to target “billions spent on climate extremism” in the fight over the debt limit |
015c09ef3cc9da136b63d33715d40c8ddc6d3d3d266a16ef6958cebd9bbe8215 | microplastics contaminate plants | Bees are uniquely effected
Ziani et. al. 23 [Khaled, Department of Clinical Laboratory and Food Safety, Faculty of Pharmacy, “Carol Davila” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 020956 Bucharest, Romania. “Microplastics: A Real Global Threat for Environment and Food Safety: A State of the Art Review” https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9920460/]
environment is increasingly invaded by microplastics bees can be samplers Due to increased sensitivity and large flight area Bees bring pollutants into their hive where they accumulate microplastics significant potential to contaminate plants presence prevent the proper absorption of nutrients change the biomass of plants smaller particles greater exposure ; affecting the entire soil ecosystem |
0297946bd0571a3188503e875b9296ecef0beb3f7586503fca8da4afbaced3ae | Existential risk debating good | 3---Existential risk debating is valuable.
Tutton 22 [Richard Tutton is Senior Lecturer in Sociology at Lancaster University, UK, and co-editor of Genetic Databases: Socio-Ethical Issues in the Collection and Use of DNA. "The Sociology of Futurelessness." https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00380385221122420]
Sociologists need to recognise specificities For many groups futures were foreclosed by white settlers and colonisers Battistoni asks how scholars can translate urgency of the “ no future” sensibility’ to something more than fetishist apocalypticism Only by addressing urgencies of now’ do societies stand a chance of working towards ‘ new futures’ that avoid or better face up to catastrophes This opens space for counterfutures’ Mitchell discuss in their work counterfutures’ attest to how Indigenous Peoples are living with the ‘ wreckage |
0087bb13c626771e807ee2ab55ef9b94964e664cedefbee243fce1d2a2f287c9 | Russia will respond immediately | Securitizing against cyber threats is good – the US has empirically underestimated Russia’s cyber aggression which has caused further escalation.
Alspach, '22 – Kyle Alspach ( @KyleAlspach) is a senior reporter at Protocol, focused on cybersecurity (Kyle Alspach; "‘Reckless cowboy’: U.S. may underestimate Putin’s cyber strategy"; VentureBeat; https://venturebeat.com/2022/02/25/reckless-cowboy-u-s-may-underestimate-putins-cyber-strategy/; 2-25-2022, Accessed 7-7-2022)//ILake-NoC
Cybersecurity veteran to embark on invasion of Ukraine Putin Russia have cyber offense assumption that Putin stop short reviewing commentary from Russian political analysts and cyber analysts and Putin made it clear that Putin said Russia will respond immediately is fair game for cyberattack |
030cec1ebf7d14416ac3eccc9133394f7c0add62e8e54a1ca2f483991588666b | science real is not neutral | Claims that “Science is real” and techno managerialism are good is not neutral but a rhetorical manuever that masks the relativity of the scientific process proven by a lack of stringent standards in the peer review process. Instead, understand the truth through mediated conditions of experience (that’s your answer for cx).
Claire Colebrook 23. Edwin Erle Sparks Professor of English, Philosophy, and Women’s and Gender Studies at Penn State University. “Science is Real.” Symploke, vol. 31, no. 1-2. 2023
Even though “science is real” would seem indisputable affirmations lies in performative force A L is a refusal of Black life science is real” has rhetorical maneuvers science was a strategy of corporations tobacco and carbon corporations insisted no link between smoking and cancer or emission and climate scientists recognized the importance of rhetoric , science appeared mediated science is real assumed policy followed reality metaphysics could not have a knowable foundation we have forgotten that what we know is in relation individuals defied pandemic restrictions exposing the extent to which science is real supposed non- relational thing fantasized as knowable the capacity to be an expert intensifies neoliberal capture opposition between “the real” and fabrication relies on a fantasy There are only facts no knowledge production a picture of politics divided between manufacture and fact science require knowing what counts as science peer review is a closed community journals loosened standards to disseminate information high impact factor journals became susceptible we can only know the truth through mediated experience does not generate a free- for- all, or relativism take seriously the means through which truth is given |
02b98af9c28d7a1c3c722404275478b003aef7ee2501bd7c0780d20a2a05037f | Chief Seattle quote | Chief Seattle once said: “The White man will never be alone. Let him be just and deal kindly with my people, for the dead are not powerless. Dead, did I say? There is no death, only a change of worlds.”
Rhee and Subedi 14 (Jeong-eun, assistant professor of education @ Long Island University, B.A. @ Ewha Women’s University, M.A. @ West Virginia University, Ph.D. @ Ohio State University, and Binaya Subedi, Associate Professor, Department of Teaching and Learning @ Ohio State University, 7-28-2014, “Colonizing and Decolonizing Projects of Re/Covering Spirituality,” Educational Studies, Vol 50:4, pg. 348-353)
decolonizing imaginations are more than oppositional spirituality is not considered legitimate Although empiricism pragmatism may be legitimate domains such as emotion that go outside “ Western rationality ” invite labels of not objective and inferior To advocate justice leaders unlearn association with US government Indigenous spirituality is a space where the West cannot decipher and control spirituality has been required for African American communities to participate in political struggle spirituality carries a possibility of decolonizing because it opens power and info beyond Eurocentric discourse Fanon terms the space zone of occult instability : a praxis from which marginalized communities transform colonial regimes . transformative spirituality demands rewriting knowledge paradigms that limit experiences within the binary of material as tangible and spiritual as nonexistent. Some may doubt possibilities However this discussion is fundamental to decolonization since political economy have become imperial tools it is necessary to ask if educators are consuming spirituality that is ahistorical to invoke neoliberal well-being. spirituality should not avoid historical structures Spirituality rebuild through ongoing healing being able to hope never-ending genocid must be “the evidence of things not seen ” This refusal to be “devoured, consumed becomes a different envisioning of future |
0245378026495447de9047b9624a8a7f6392bda956d097a1bdf630aa375f78b1 | Negotiations fail tractability exclusivity imprecision | Negotiations fail---overemphasis on tractability, an inevitable exclusivity, the broad imprecision, the lowest common denominator effect, and false expectations
Cary Coglianese 17, Edward B. Shils Professor of Law, University of Pennsylvania Law School. Professor, Political Science, University of Pennsylvania Law School. Director of the Penn Program on Regulation, "Does Consensus Work? A Pragmatic Approach to Public Participation in the Regulatory Process," Renascent Pragmatism: Studies in Law and Social Science, Chapter 8, pg. 186-189, 07/05/2017, OCR by ShareX. [edited for OCR errors]
pitfalls overlooked consensus focus on tractable issues Once negotiations are under way apparent process never agree participants shift to a broad vision pushes away from confronting most pressing to less important problems Consensus never reflects agreement policy by consensus lead to exclusion easier to achieve consensus among smaller groups agencies exclude parties disadvantages smaller org s imprecision no one disagree , but spoke in platitudes reflected in ambiguities imprecise language always less controversial l c d effect require no more than what is acceptable to country with most objections will not be enough when a dramatic decision is needed industry will not agree Actors not party will try to affect the decision 60 percent of participants dissatisfied expectations unfulfilled |
02f24a3a1499f0874acf120786ae49848c0d6ea1caf43e773c8afb534c42cd46 | China debt and real estate bubble | Economic conditions in China make it impossible to lose.
Tonchev 22 – Plamen Tonchev (Head of the Asia Unit at the Institute of International Economic Relations (IIER), Athens, Greece.) “2 Major Traps on China’s Path to Global Leadership” The Diplomat. September 01, 2022. Accessed September 27, 2022. https://thediplomat.com/2022/09/2-major-traps-on-chinas-path-to-global-leadership/
There are major obstacles China will have to get over slowdown should not be attributed to COVID The pandemic exacerbated structural deficiencies China is reeling under excessive debt, caused by misallocation of capital real estate bubble may be the most serious crisis in the past 40 years aging population will sap future growth coupled with low educational attainment total factor productivity has been steadily declining Chinese authorities efforts are falling flat |
00c7000ffe018760f1d3f76737b7cc3277925cd7d682504625d7925471462e8d | Caroline Levine climate | Refusing to exhaust political engagement to align with supposed radicalism makes extinction and unprecedented structural violence inevitable
Levine 23 (Caroline Levine is a professor of humanities at Cornell University. 10/17/23, The Activist Humanist: Form and Method in the Climate Crisis, Princeton University Press)//SHP
students feel bleak climate change defeats them overwhelmed by the prospect of dismantling structures fall back on their own actions cannot imagine working at a scale larger than individual decision making the scale of isolation and hopelessness no models of effective political action thinkers urge us to open to possibilities resist imperatives unlearn illusion of progress This leads to powerlessness scholars moving between longings for a “wholesale dismantling and embrace of “the minor gesture Caught between gloom and actions too insubstantial actively reinforcing withdrawal from the public sphere there is a register missing between global revolution and the small-scale act the scale of collective life . it is true institutions are corrupt But can it be that our only option is to refuse action and accede to extinction? Climate change is magnifying the suffering of the most vulnerable |
003ca573af8de4b2334d191a4182e11d7bf8290a3d8571dd523ad1693ec596c0 | PFAS and extinction | PFAS causes extinction---decimates fertility.
Brokovich ’21 [Erin and Shanna Swan; 2021; American legal clerk and environmental activist, who, despite her lack of formal education in the law, was instrumental in building a case against the Pacific Gas and Electric Company of California in 1993, the president of Brockovich Research & Consulting; Ph.D., one of the world’s leading environmental and reproductive epidemiologists and a professor of environmental medicine and public health at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai; The Guardian, “Plummeting Sperm Counts, Shrinking Penises: Toxic Chemicals Threaten Humanity,” https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich]
hormone-disrupting chemicals decimating fertility at alarming rate sperm dropped 60% counts reach zero by 2045 PFAS don’t breakdown in environment or body humanity reaching breaking point reproductive affairs can’t continue without threatening existential science |
0346889624336f4dd3a79ef14c44b9d27fe9d8fe314d9ddbab9dfc883e8b3aa0 | every person's well-being | Util and consequentialism good
Greene 2010 – Joshua, Associate Professor of Social science in the Department of Psychology at Harvard University (The Secret Joke of Kant’s Soul published in Moral Psychology: Historical and Contemporary Readings, accessed: www.fed.cuhk.edu.hk/~lchang/material/Evolutionary/Developmental/Greene-KantSoul.pdf)
, it is unlikely there is any coherent moral theory that can accommodate moral intuitions Kant fail to distinguish deontology from other approaches to ethics consequentialists are against treating people as objects, by counting every person's well-being deontolog y tautological : But don't explain anything there seems to be "something deeply right" because they give voice to powerful moral emotions . But they don't explain the philosophy in question |
03b4fd29cbb0d9f08c099b267108dd4e856b5434df454a7a4898a61e6f1271b1 | Nuclear winter is survivable | Nuclear winter is survivable
Ord 20 [Dr. Toby Ord, Senior Research Fellow in Philosophy at Oxford University, DPhil in Philosophy, trustee of the Centre for Effective Altruism; “The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity,” Part Two, Section 4: Anthropogenic Risks; Hachette Books, ISBN: 978-0-316-48491-6]
nuclear winter Would it be existential ? there would be food production crops are cold-tolerant or farming in tropics fishing greenhouses , and algae unlikely to lead to extinction . No researchers say it would extinction was exaggeration Southern Hemisphere, it’s nuclear free lots of fish and sheep you would survive avoid nuclear winter with institutions ) intact |
0417e1b55347393186e1ef88c7ee674cfa70b43b7af0b665bb617eda96c11524 | monetary policy authorities | No "perception" link---credible monetary policy authorities look past carbon taxes.
Santabárbara '22 [Daniel, Marta Suárez-Varela; October; Head of Advanced and Systemic Economies Unit, Banco de España; Senior Economist, Banco de España; Bank of Spain; "Carbon Pricing and Inflation Volatility," https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/22/Files/dt2231e.pdf]
carbon pricing associated with larger inflation driven only by ETS no impact found for carbon taxes ETS lead to more volatile than stable carbon taxes carbon pricing associated to a transitory effect on inflation monetary policy authorities will ’look through’ this effect as a negative supply-side shock |
0322db37f8a2022fa6bcd3104c72cf0a48635efca0d5726a7752a47a53c86290 | Fed develop expertise to address new challenges | That experimental policymaking shores up Fed credibility and expertise necessary to avoid a slew of existential risks.
Peter Conti-Brown & David Wishnick 21. Assistant Professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Nonresident Fellow in Economics Studies at the Brookings Institution. Academic Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania Law School Center for Technology, Innovation & Competition. “Technocratic Pragmatism, Bureaucratic Expertise, and the Federal Reserve.” The Yale Law Journal. Vol. 130. No. 3. https://www.yalelawjournal.org/feature/technocratic-pragmatism-bureaucratic-expertise-and-the-federal-reserve#_ftnref10
some advocate expansion of its powers to new problems , such as climate Fed should not fear acting at outer edge of authority Failures to develop new expertise undermine ability to deliver mandates “ technocratic pragmatism to live up to Congress’s ambitions its ambit must change encourages experimentation requires guardrails focus away from coercive powers focuses on how the Fed should develop expertise to address new challenges that at present are not at the core of agency but loom menacingly These are existential threaten global security climate pandemics financial crises racism , cybersecurity and others require creative solutions time is running out agencies develop from experience enacting policy into future policymaking build expertise to be effective implementors of policy experimentalist Fed would embrace goal evolution responsive to complex problems permits Fed to anticipate , mitigate resolve existential threats |
002d5014f00d6b6ef89c5edf7f8492c57729663850683f4e102c3d4820105e22 | Fornasari 24 | Litigation before the courts is not an effective political maneuver, but their capacity to frame it as such reveals a counterinsurgent thread that runs through their imagination of the aff and research project.
1AC Fornasari 24, recut to say what the author ACTUALLY meant! [Riccardo Fornasari, temporary teaching and research associate at Paris Nanterre University, former post-doc researcher at University of Bologna, PhD private law, University of Bologna and University of Paris Nanterre, LLM Dickson Poon School of Law, King’s College London, “The legal form of climate change litigation,” Journal of Law and Political Economy, forthcoming 2024, https://hal.science/hal-04431595/]
climate change litigation is fundamentally anti-systemic ( a different issue from progressive or conservative I will clarify what this statement does not imply I do not advance that these judgements have a redistributive effect I do not argue that these decisions constitute some kind of anticapitalist agenda I do not mean that these judgements can transform the system even though climate change litigation is anti-systemic , it presents a biased Eurocentric perspective fails to account for the most affected The narrative according to which the plaintiffs (and judgments) pursue the general interest can be questioned For instance , in Milieudefensie refusal to take into account the interests beyond those of the Netherlands denies a voice to those most affected French climate litigation does not take into account the French Outre-mer. Moreover , this litigation claims mainly mitigation while the Global South necessitates reparation These cases suffer from a post-colonial mentality also in the choice of the threshold These are major shortcomings , because litigating before courts in the Global North creates a hierarchy of interests taken into account. affording the climate issue does not involve, fighting racial injustices. sacrifice zones are created through green transition extraction raw materials legal mechanisms have been fundamental for the development of racial capitalism these shortcomings help recall climate change litigation is not the best place to address climate the partial hindering of a segment of the process of accumulation does not involve racial justices . the simple presence of law colliding with the rationale of capital accumulation does not make an entire system anticapitalist . |
03c161d3e3e411f2f9898bdb03fe436b8725d3b2f16bfb7bf2a23483f9a21147 | future pandemics a growing existential risk | Extinction
Larson et al. 20 (Nicklas, Senior Advisor and Writer at SCENARIO and the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies; “Future pandemics: A growing existential risk,” 6-25-2020, SCENARIO, https://medium.com/copenhagen-institute-for-futures-studies/future-pandemics-a-growing-existential-risk-9c08f3d5358e, acccessed: 10-31-2020)//ddv – edited for gendered language
COVID was not unanticipated interconnectedness of civilisation made it easier and the frequency of outbreaks is accelerated By 2050, two-thirds of the world will live in urban areas Novel outbreaks will have fertile ground hyper-connected warming spreading water-borne diseases loss of natural ‘buffers’ between humans and ecosystems, traits can spread sterility . A biotech nological catastrophe may be released risks on the exi stential scale |
04308de92ec44397bf0e60b943ac2d4d1995551e42c10bd113121d62ee83e062 | Russia economy collapse | Putin lashes out---nuke war.
Geraghty ’22 [Jim; Feb 28; National Review, “Watching the Russian Economy Collapse before Our Eyes,” https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/watching-the-russian-economy-collapse-before-our-eyes/]
ask how much economic devastation we want to inflict upon a country with nuclear warheads some Russian official selling off nuclear materials impoverishing the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons feels like trouble We need a defanged Russia that doesn’t blame the West |
00634dd94fe9cff3d5541d10b52d3b5a5ca37adc6a354604b6bee920cbe12e58 | climate change impacts trade | That shuts down the entire system.
Christophe Bellmann. 22. Head of Policy Analysis and Strategy at the Forum on Trade, Environment & the SDGs (which is a partnership of the Geneva Graduate Institute and United Nations Environmental Program), is a Visiting Fellow at the Institute for International Trade at the University of Adelaide, is am Adviser to the ACP and LDC Group in the WTO, is an Associate Fellow at the Hoffmann Centre for the Sustainable Resource Economy, was a Senior Policy Advisor at the International Institute for Sustainable Development and held various positions at the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, and holds a Master's Degree in International Relations and Affairs from the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies at the Geneva Graduate Institute. “Trade and Climate Change in the World Trade Organization”. TESS Policy Brief. 11-7-22. https://tessforum.org/latest/trade-and-climate-change-in-the-world-trade-organization
Climate change impacts trade effects of extreme weather on infrastructure and transport through changes in endowments and productivity viewed as major risk to supply chain profitability affect price, quality, and speed of , transport, and distribution changes in temperature, precipitation pests disease particularly significant in ag and fisheries . change crop yields productivity natural resource endowments |
0361eb4ff0493751eac0345c926574b65d6e1ea181a60e2ed64d1b5747b46c89 | Lauren Henry Scholz 17 | 6. Algorithmic contracts are inevitable but uncertain.
Lauren Henry Scholz 17, McConnaughhay and Rissman Professor at the Florida State University College of Law, J.D. from Harvard Law School, “Algorithmic Contracts,” Stanford Technology Law Review, Vol. 20, No. 2, Fall 2017, https://ir.law.fsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1615&context=articles
algorithms creates uncertainty create problems humans are unlikely to foresee Businesses manage their own risks firms poke around looking for patterns once found they operate unlikely using algorithms will change given success uncertainty becomes untenable when many are using algorithms When an algorithm has unpredictable results because a business is not sure what causes positive results business manage internally problem is since algorithms are not operating within anyone’s domain no entity is keeping track of and minimizing risks for unanticipated results that lead to crises nobody understands what went wrong |
01bf8b461ce9404898913e612dc03d4e6b83b34bf7e49d0032f50d542893eb6f | Can't solve | Can’t solve.
Stein and Royal 21, *Policy Advisor at The Heartland Institute, **MPP, writer for The National Interest (*Ronald Stein, **Todd Royal, 2021, “Introduction,” in ‘Clean’ Energy Exploitations: Helping Citizens Understand the Environmental and Humanity Abuses that Support ‘Clean’ Energy, Archway Publishing, University of Kansas Libraries, ILL)
U S largest economy in history every person , animal , or anything that causes emissions could vanish or even die and emissions will still explode over population and economic growth of China , India , and Africa emissions from the 7.8 billion will rise |
046aa1b1c6ac0f98755d29fceb39aff9fb5a05371d0f74eedadd5b57d201be34 | weak global demand | Best forecasts are Aff.
Carl Surran 12/31 (covers energy, utilities, and natural resources for Seeking Alpha. He holds a BA from Duke University and an MBA from Rollins College.; Surran, Carl. “Oil Benchmarks Little Changed for 2024; Demand Concerns Dampen 2025 Price Outlook.” Seeking Alpha, 2025, seekingalpha.com/news/4391779-oil-futures-little-changed-for-2024-demand-concerns-dampen-2025-price-outlook. Accessed 1 Jan. 2025.)Rinehart.
Weak global demand and looming supply glut are weighing on the oil market's outlook survey of analysts showing lower price forecasts with benchmarks expected to fal next year |
0109ee7cbd3d5e74b84ea9de75f64d14060bb8d762122cbf846b6254172d2d0f | Helmut Hillebrand biodiversity | Biodiversity is increasing and resilient, regardless of human intervention.
Helmut Hillebrand et al. 23. Institute for Chemistry and Biology of Marine Environments [ICBM], Carl-Von-Ossietzky University Oldenburg; Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz-Centre for Polar and Marine Research. Written with Lucie Kuczynski, Charlotte Kunze, Marina C. Rillo & Jan-Claas Dajka. Thresholds and tipping points are tempting but not necessarily suitable concepts to address anthropogenic biodiversity change—an intervention. Marine Biodiversity, Vol. 53, No. 43, 15 June 2023. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1p007/s12526-023-01342-3. Accessed 13 June 2024
thresholds of biod incur a scaling issue as long as extinction is less than species gains critical biod change is avoided inertia show transient increases in diversity rather than losses the threshold and tipping point narratives have little validity Biod might be the reason ecological systems absorb change functional recovery was the norm |
01de09989b8151f32a966244d72f6b5d868e46b3dbd5bd551133768cf3c43d48 | American recession and the world | Decline goes global.
Friedman 17, is a U.S. geopolitical forecaster, author, and strategist on international affairs. He is the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures. Prior to founding Geopolitical Futures, he was chairman of its predecessor Stratfor. He has a BA from the City College of New York in political science and a PhD in government from Cornell University. (George, 4-26-2017, “An American Recession And The World,” HuffPost, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/an-american-recession-and-the-world_b_5900b1f6e4b06feec8ac9251)
U.S. recession hurt countries considering the U S is the world’s largest importer and the engine stabilizing the system decline in U.S. economy will drop imports have a substantial impact reversing gains in stabilization downturn in export will ripple because exporting are also importing As American demand contracts exporters’ will be affected vulnerability has grown dramatically because countries have become reliant the ripple effect will be substantial |
039f9acd6a07f71518b8266f3c724c0170a6c5be6dd0d4213272ea6d5ec16415 | climate risk fire sales | Rapid devaluation causes fire sales that collapse the global economy.
Bateson and Rothstein 24 (Blair Bateson is the director of the company network at the sustainability nonprofit Ceres, Steven Rothstein is the managing director of the Ceres Accelerator for Sustainable Capital Markets, “Will climate risk trigger the next great financial crisis?”, 3/28/24, https://greencentralbanking.com/2024/03/28/will-climate-risk-trigger-the-next-great-financial-crisis/.) pelletier
climate risk – could spiral out of control banks need to move faster And our world is far from globally coordinated disorderly transition is raising the possibility of shocks to asset values timing is unpredictable rapid devaluation could trigger fire sales climate risk slashing growth by 11% risk results from physical impacts of climate change but also transition risks to low-carbon How the US prepares is crucial, given its outsized impact on financ |
006285ff2254df1433b1261c8f9e5e55b5841e5c6c2d27eaacc687e9bd0c2d00 | White saviorism harms indigenous communities | White Saviorism DA: the perm deflates Indigenous projects of decolonization and engages in white saviorism by participating in piece-meal reform, proving the aff dismisses Indigenous autonomy.
Hernandez 22 (Dr. Jessica Hernandez is a transnational Indigenous scholar, scientist, and community advocate based in the Pacific Northwest. She has an interdisciplinary academic background ranging from marine sciences to forestry. Her work is grounded in her Indigenous cultures and ways of knowing. Hernandez advocates for climate, energy, and environmental justice through her scientific and community work and strongly believes that Indigenous sciences can heal our Indigenous lands. She is the founder of Piña Soul, SPC, an environmental consulting and artesanias hybrid business that supports Black- and Indigenous-led conservation and environmental projects through community mutual aids and microgrants. “Fresh Banana Leaves : Healing Indigenous Landscapes through Indigenous Science 9781623176068, 2021027787, 2021027788, 9781623176051, 1623176069 - DOKUMEN.PUB.” Dokumen.pub, dokumen.pub, 2022, dokumen.pub/fresh-banana-leaves-healing-indigenous-landscapes-through-indigenous-science-9781623176068-2021027787-2021027788-9781623176051-1623176069.html. Accessed 30 July 2024.)//TM
we read stories that highlight our communities’ vulnerability these stories end up harming us more because they create cycle of white saviorism that makes people assume we need someone to save us roots itself in “Brown victimhood that urges European descendants to take moral duty to save oppressed founded on white egocentric myth that there is something Brown people must need that only white people give Indigenous peoples do not need saving What we need is people to take responsibility fo actions and oppression enacted against us. White saviorism dismisses autonomy and resilience as government does not have best interest This is why we become resourceful to help families and communities We need to move away from white saviorism as it is a modern day version of manifest destiny What we demand is for us to regain autonomy to manage and oversee natural resources |
00895825f5b32877ceb789a061f32e3c9c7905358588acd404a29805eddc25e7 | IRS can raise revenue | IRS resources are sufficient to meaningfully address the tax gap---that ensures fiscal health
Sarin and Mazur 24 [Natasha Sarin, associate professor at Yale Law School, and Mark Mazur, former director of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, interviewed by Bob Goulder, contributing editor with Tax Notes. 2-28-2024 https://www.forbes.com/sites/taxnotes/2024/02/28/modernizing-the-irs-through-the-inflation-reduction-act/]
the tax gap is large $700 billion a year investment from the I R A increas compliance by a percent or two but it turns out a lot of potential revenue. the top 1 percent responsible for $200 billion of the tax gap it's those highly complicated audits where agency lost revenue where they haven't had resources it's where they're focused now that they have enforcement resources it's critical they retain them look ahead deficits of $2 trillion a year Given the choice between taxes or cutting Social Security or Medicare doesn't it make sense to go after the tax gap? if IRS successfully use funds Congress in the future say we can go back there and generate additional funds We saw some point to defunding the agency to spend less like deficit reduction The reality is exactly the opposite IRS resources to enforce the laws gives us potential to raise. That is huge and transformative even a small sliver make a meaningful impact |
01b0f8657106f2955eb0083a6877ebcfab1e30e70f11e5609cd6058a6572ed81 | sustainable aviation fuel | 2. COMPETITION---Fuel producers that exceed their obligations generate credits which can be sold, generating additional market signals and allowing them to outcompete other producers.
Soubly ’21 [Kevin Soubly, Lauren Uppink Calderwood, Christoph Wolff, Ned Harvey, Adam Klauber, Kathy Wight, Joukje Janssen, Milou Keijzer, Marcus Looijenga, Tim Miltenburg, Amelia Ransome; June; master's degree in environmental management from the University of Oxford and a bachelor's degree in political science and international studies from Hope College; Head of Aviation, Travel and Tourism Industries, World Economic Forum, MPhil in Development Policy and Practice from the University of Cape Town Mandela School of Government and is a fellow of both the World Economic Forum Global Leadership Fellowship and Young African Leadership Initiative; founders of the World Economic Forum's Clean Skies for Tomorrow Coalition; former Managing Director at Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) with the Climate Intelligence program; Vice President of Sustainability and Digital Supply Chain at World Energy; World Economic Forum, “Powering Sustainable Aviation Through Consumer Demand: The Clean Skies for Tomorrow Sustainable Aviation Fuel Certificate (SAFc) Framework,”https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_CST_SAFc_Demand_Signal_Report_2021.pdf ]
SAFc fuel producer generates SAF sell SAF buyer claim reduction address deadlock limiting SAF. results in low SAFc catalyses additional demand generating new funding market demand signals drive investment |
032291ddfa1328796da4c1cae64b2f1d612b93120c395b2f5ea7fa89b73594ee | dynamic carbon tax | Properly designed carbon tax is the only way to substantially reduce emissions while promoting fiscal sustainability---ETS trades-off with the economy.
Yan et. al 23, (Keija Yan – GRA Fellowship of Chemistry at the University of Alberta, Rakesh Gupta – PhD & Department Chair of Economics at U Brisbane, Suneel Maheshwari – Accounting Professor & Chairperson at Indiana University, 6-30-2023, Using Carbon Tax to Reach the U.S.’s 2050 NDCs Goals—A CGE Model of Firms, Government, and Households, MDPI, https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/7/317)//CHale
there is great uncertainty about environmental policy the U. S. provides a framework to achieve NDC in 2025 issuing a dynamic carbon tax . long-run carbon tax keeping in equilibrium tax costs of labour energy and carbon and higher employment and GDP using a 2 layer model benefits on a country’s economic cycle governments earn revenue stimulate the economy increasing public wealth increase GDP as CO2 is reduced help reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio carbon tax help improve efficiency of the tax system reduce costly regulatory measures USD 73 raise 3 trillion ETS decrease the profit of firms significant negative effect on return-on-capital material costs increased ETS reduce market competitiveness create a decline in employment |
0156656d3f2d0b4d95ece2c1c15210c1e6de934512c11140fc4c1ba8eb13a232 | biotechnology national security | Petit zeroes uniqueness for the whole thing! It rose before rate cuts, and will rise after. OR, structural factors overwhelm.
Zelie Petit 24, M.A in Strategy, Cybersecurity, and Intelligence from John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, “The Strategic Imperative of Biotechnology: Implications for U.S. National Security”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9-27-24, https://www.csis.org/blogs/strategic-technologies-blog/strategic-imperative-biotechnology-implications-us-national, DOA: 10-22-24, JA
intelligence (AI) are increasingly transforming biotechnology, especially in fields like defense Biotech poses risks population enhancement and the creation of biological agents boosting innovation is crucial 2023, the global biotechnology market was valued at $1.55 trillion. It is projected to reach $2.44 trillion by 2028, and $3.88 trillion by 2030. |
041e924d7d6ee1503972a98689b4d1495dd056ccde9a2455b823b8c35368f6d0 | Schlosberg 21 | EMPRIRCS. It historically fails.
Mark Schlosberg 21, JD in economics, National Organizing Director for Food & Water Watch, 7-20-2021, “Top 5 Reasons Carbon Capture And Storage (CCS) Is Bogus,” https://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/2021/07/20/top-5-reasons-carbon-capture-and-storage-ccs-is-bogus/, oj
After billions of investments there are only colossal failures the largest plant underperformed D o E spent $6.9 billion to demonstrate feasibility little came of this investment. Biden wants to shift its focus to carbon capture there’s no reason to think the outcome will be different . |
0330b3c6d0a283d2bb7d2a8f65530dfc55cef529ae6c77b5db8c9aded68ca88f | Sorrow story missing | 7---Yes the story of Sorrow is partly missing due to the misery of slavery that offense – the 1ac is a performance of critical fabulation
Casteli et al 24 (Published in European Journal of Pragmatism and American PhilosophyBodies, Voices, Relations: Thinking with Adriana Cavarero Journal of Italian Philosophy Volume 7 (2024) Bodies, Voices, Relations: Thinking with Adriana Cavarero Edited by Federica Castelli, Marco Piasentier, and Sara Raimondi)
Adrian Cavarero’s conversation with Black feminist narrative rewriting archives of Black life in the wake selfhood in relational terms critical fabulation kind of relational women and lives invisible a counternarrative relational uniqueness the accidental needs care singularity in Western philosophy embodied uniqueness in the name of the Human , or Man philosophy has reduced uniqueness to fit epistemic framework universal Man marked by exposure, vulnerability, and dependence” tropes as fiction, mythology, and autobiography and distinct genres , concept of critical fabulation, narrates a counternarrative |
02bc343c97b3cccc6f3a41e757c345ffab186db1d63736b5f680995e10e21987 | US food assistance reduces need | Regardless of current trends, US production suppresses the worse impacts of food insecurity
Esposito ’24 [Dina Esposito, Assistant to the Administrator, Bureau for Resilience, Environment, and Food Security, “Testimony of Dina Esposito, Assistant to the Administrator, Bureau for Resilience, Environment, and Food Security, before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,” 3-6-24, https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/congressional-testimony/mar-06-2024-global-food-security]
even in the face of stark numbers American generosity has kept hundreds of millions off the knife’s edge . The U S has maintained its role as the world’s leader in food assistance . At the height of the global food crisis in 2022, USAID was able to provide $6 billion for food If we can help countries anticipate shocks we greatly reduce the need for assistance where Feed the Future worked, poverty, hunger, and child stunting all declined by 20-to-25 percent As food prices hit record highs following Ukraine, we rushed to get seeds and financing to markets we helped absorb the worst effects by strengthening local production without American leadership it would be far worse . Through COVID Ukraine, we persevered, and hundreds of millions benefitted |
0321430a485cfb4933da3313dafae817b8858cf6f3f590d584456edeca30f319 | Geist 15 | Control problem is intractable – only solution is to never build AI
Geist 15 [Edward Moore Geist, MacArthur Nuclear Security Fellow at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation, 8/9/15, “Is artificial intelligence really an existential threat to humanity?,” http://thebulletin.org/artificial-intelligence-really-existential-threat-humanity8577]
findings of a i researchers bode ill for recommendations for how to prevent machines from determining fate of mankind While incentives for a i to be friendly might seem obvious machines will be powerful enough to subvert these he focuses on “giving AI a final goal that makes it easier to control If machines develop godlike superintelligence a i researchers have learned the nature of reason itself will work against this plan to solve the “control problem |
0234b8db106b145ad1e43d2c37de6937f99aa6dd8e7b5484431c1d9fc82161c3 | Warrant is ether, disproved by Einstein | Wrong --- warrant is Ether, disproved by Einstein.
Rohrbaugh 1922 [Rohrbaugh, L. G. (1922). The energy concept: a spiritual concept of reality [University of Iowa]. https://iro.uiowa.edu/esploro/outputs/doctoral/The-energy-concept-a-spiritual-concept/9983777057402771. //cohn]
In study of the energy concept The "number, length , breadth, volume, interval", etc ., will not suffice We want to know "why" these causes operate the concept of the ether has led us to the conclusion concept than either ether or matter physical science offers no answer to our legitimate demands forced to champion hypothesis which says that energy is of a spiritual nature The left adapted to powerlessness movements are everywhere, we are told, and they will change the world Except they won’t . do not have means local fires put out one by one How have the left coped with powerlessness? disengagement redefining politics as performance of virtue rather than power Activities are evaluated according to how expressive they are without any attention to whether they have an impact on carbon emissions response is to collapse change into personal choices over philosophy . If you believe climate change can be defeated by rejection one individual at a time each conversion constitutes victory This reinforces that powerlessness is irrelevant , since change is at a deeper level than governments and laws the conflation of wishes and operative political programs holds up statements of intent as if they were proposals whose implementation would have outcomes announcing the goal is sufficient it evades how to deal with the political challenge of getting programs enacted and enforced The view that capitalism is a style of thinking progress is a myth political contestation is irrelevant That’s the real problem |
0043b7d80ce0e01f76f990db7416de97a110d72c521a1d7d9be18f9e54cc79ee | Trump belligerent extinction | Trump circumvents checks. Strikes are swift AND belligerent---extinction.
Collina ’24 [Tom; July 30; national security expert and award-winning author, director of policy at Ploughshares Fund; Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “trump Could Win Back the Nuclear Codes. Biden Should put Guardrails on the Nuclear Arsenal—now,” 2https://thebulletin.org/2024/07/trump-could-win-back-the-nuclear-codes-biden-should-put-guardrails-on-the-nuclear-arsenal-now/]
Trump had unilateral authority to launch nuc At any moment , Trump could end world with phone call approval is not needed, and sec def cannot stop order system is built for speed whole process take minutes Trump discussed idea of using nuc and suggested blame a strike on another country |
01a6bf92bca38d37b0adacc38baafd2886ed890718463a98adc20845b67c550a | Cruz secession NASA military oil | 2---AND an independent Texas would go after US oil and military
Holley 22. Peter Holley, Nov 2022. TexasMonthly “Are Texas Republicans Serious About Secession?” https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/are-texas-republicans-serious-about-secession/ ///mosuQ
senator Cruz said how little stood in the way of him changing his mind [on secession.] if there comes a point I think we take NASA, we take the military, we take the oil. ” |
043a924ac017609054de75c31eb1f939cd8b771f1237c254c6571d375ff3b1df | environmental policy and governance | AND solving warming.
Balme 14 , Professor at the Paris School of International Affairs, (Richard, “Multi-Level Governance and the Environment: Intergovernmental Relations and Innovation in Environmental Policy”, Environmental Policy and Governance, Volume 24, Issue 3)
policies adopted by the fed remain limited coordination remains partial , and limit their effectiveness . Decentralization is regularly advocated by studies of environmental policies decentralization allows jurisdictions to control for their own pollution empirical effects are increasingly documented decentralization allows for policies better suited for local conditions centralization has limitations : little reactivity to local circumstances limited innovation and a strict dependence on bureaucracies and top-down implementation hostility or lack of political will Territorial governments are more likely to be responsive to local circumstances local institutions may facilitate bottom-up emergence of self-governing arrangements |
0087bb13c626771e807ee2ab55ef9b94964e664cedefbee243fce1d2a2f287c9 | Securitizing against cyber threats is good | Securitizing against cyber threats is good – the US has empirically underestimated Russia’s cyber aggression which has caused further escalation.
Alspach, '22 – Kyle Alspach ( @KyleAlspach) is a senior reporter at Protocol, focused on cybersecurity (Kyle Alspach; "‘Reckless cowboy’: U.S. may underestimate Putin’s cyber strategy"; VentureBeat; https://venturebeat.com/2022/02/25/reckless-cowboy-u-s-may-underestimate-putins-cyber-strategy/; 2-25-2022, Accessed 7-7-2022)//ILake-NoC
Cybersecurity veteran to embark on invasion of Ukraine Putin Russia have cyber offense assumption that Putin stop short reviewing commentary from Russian political analysts and cyber analysts and Putin made it clear that Putin said Russia will respond immediately is fair game for cyberattack |
03081e8e77b4acdeb88661fd5e3a0748f92d0dce2c906df092eeca2257f93430 | China NC3 reduced demands | Alert levels are kept exceptionally low.
Wu ’22 [Riqiang; 2022; Associate Professor of International Studies at the Renmin University of China, Ph.D. in Political Science from Tsinghua University; International Security, “Assessing China-U.S. Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation,” vol. 46 no. 2]
China’s nuclear forces are kept at low alert most of China’s warheads remain separated from boosters Upon warning PLARF’s practice is to protect rather than launch missiles close doors switch to isolated ventilation, and put on protective gear doctrine does not require China retaliate immediately By extending decision-making time demands on China’s NC3 can be significantly reduced |
03eaabbe68637ba10f4946be8a3d322749e6e18224955e72325130d4c672cf86 | legal obligations toward mutual regard | It can be remade in ways that challenge violence.
Nash, 19—Professor of Gender, Sexuality, and Feminist Studies at Duke University (Jennifer, “love in the time of death,” Black Feminism Reimagined: After Intersectionality, Chapter 4, 121-126, dml)
this eschews a singular history that presumes the violence of the juridical ignoring law as a site for staging productive intimacies and enacting radical vulnerabilities critical interrogations of progress offered ways of imagining law otherwise They advanced new methods to jam the fictions of neutrality to radically remake law , to push the boundaries of how doctrine could be written to make law unimaginable the endeavor is to imagine a legal project to attend to violence on the psyche we might feel differently toward each other if we had legal obligations toward mutual regard , if we knew that law took seriously spirit murder law becomes a critical tool in making visible mutual vulnerability , and in demanding indebtedness to each other black women’s social location as a starting point advocates for tailoring law to address injuries in particular ways legal action can be individualized , intimate , and rooted in lived experience refuse d the lure of negative affects to grieve and mourn law might be a space of black women’s survival rather than simply wounding it upends the tenet that black women’s freedom comes exclusively through spaces authored , and |
0270625b90b15fd013376b2c1c891de3dbf46802d43273d3e50507a46ab38e69 | local opposition | It sparks a firestorm of local opposition.
Cohen 22 – Director of Policy, Council of State Governments. Energy and Environmental Policy Analyst. Founding Member, Transatlantic Climate Alliance.
transmission set off a firestorm of local opposition battles are being waged across the country projects spark local opposition among residents and leaders |
00fe5da7499479c9e52cef043cde2fc2e22e3b7176f0aa3df1b515889c2b6137 | Metcalf 19 | Warming – nukes the economy
Metcalf 19 [Gilbert E. Metcalf is a professor of economics at Tufts University who specializes in climate economics. He is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. January 10, 2019. “Paying for Pollution: Why a Carbon Tax is Good for America” Oxford University Press, ISBN: 9780190694197, pg 116-118]
improvement in econ from using revenue to reduce other taxes carbon tax will not risks econ GDP falling 0.5 percent per capita GDP will be 40 percent higher one degree Celsius increase decline in GDP growth two points costs from damages and adaptation global incomes reduced 20 percent benefits outweigh costs |
012dcf9b116b12439eb6ce4144f8dcbb80a53f030e1276e692c98ca94456bc40 | climate change global food supply | Warming turns agriculture.
Sinan Erdogan et al. 24. Erdogan, Department of Economics at Hatay Mustafa Kemal University, Clinic of Economics at Azerbaijan State University of Economics. Mustafa Tevfik Kartal, Clinic of Economics at Azerbaijan State University of Economics, Adnan Kassar School of Business at Lebanese American University, and Department of Banking and Finance at European University of Lefke. Ugur Korkut Pata, Clinic of Economics at Azerbaijan State University of Economics, Adnan Kassar School of Business at Lebanese American University, Department of Banking and Finance at European University of Lefke, and Department of Economics at Osmaniye Korkut Ata University. “Does Climate Change Cause an Upsurge in Food Prices?”. Foods 2024, 13(1), 154. https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/13/1/154
climate change significant risk to global food supply decline in ag productivity and crop yields of key commodities emissions changing reducing water supply degrading soil increasing evaporation lead to depletion of sources for food production droughts Extreme heat increase crop failures distort life cycle of plants lead to shortages biggest threat to food security risk of decline in global ag yields of 60% |
0049386ac668c1e33f16f7424a005be08abe01e512b9915ab305cb0dc44011e3 | affect theory politics | Affect isn’t a basis for politics—they provide no recourse for dealing with atrocities
Sherwin, 15—New York Law School (Richard, “Too Late for Thinking: The Curious Quest for Emancipatory Potential in Meaningless Affect and Some Jurisprudential Implications”, Law, Culture and the Humanities 1–13, October 13, 2015, dml)
Affect theory humbles rationalist pretensions subordinating mind to bio-chemical processes is after-though we can never account for how actually been affected by things , affect operates as a cipher cannot formulate a coherent basis for political judgment anti-structural spontaneous emergent process remains trapped in double bind . No judgment forthcoming long as intensity amplified cannot coherently critique oppressive political structures (such as futurism, Nazism if masses embrace regimes for intensity freedom loses capacity to signify . without coherent structures , legal , political , necessary for meaningful freedom political judgment ) are unlikely to emerge effervescence of action based on intensity . In absence of political structures is destined to pass with the tide . affect theorists romanticize the fluid materiality of excitable networks If only responsibility for justice resolved by an expedient biological programming depends upon external stimuli uncertainty surrounds communication Affect theorists insist feelings have nothing to do with affect preserves purity of affective intensity we just can’t say anything about it theorists like Massumi want to eat cake and have it i incumbent to account for how exactly manipulation is being carried out the engineering of affect suffer from fundamental lack of explanatory power |
0221316eaa33c1351c04dd8d08a93d2714263be84196d3a08f13b9abac010c86 | military innovation Arctic conflicts | 1. LOW-CARBON MILITARY---it’s faster, stealthier, and more flexible---warfighting caps Chinese aggression and Arctic conflicts, solves disasters, Middle Eastern and African instability, and terrorism.
John Conger 24, Director Emeritus of the Center for Climate and Security, Senior Advisor to the Council on Strategic Risks, and Senior US Advisor to the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS), July 2024, “World Climate And Security Report 2024: Military Innovation And The Climate Challenge,” https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/WCSR-2023-24.pdf
There are vulnerabilities with fossil fuel dependence fuel convoys can be sabotaged , leading to reduced supply , also allocation of personnel for protecting transitioning to low-carbon sources reduces the reliance on complex supply chains increase stealth of platforms and reduce need for support s n r s maximize stealth compared to diesel electric propulsion reduces noise boosting flex minimizing refueling Electric motors over combustion enhance range and traction. Swarming increases remote warfare smaller vehicles allows for low-carbon propulsion AI reduces human interaction , which can be advantageous for military readiness . info war is exacerbated by blaming militaries for disasters . China, India, Russia, and the U S test a sat s Satellite can contribute to early warning satellites that used with iodine aid cost and sustainability China has been advancing in the S and E C S chances of military op grow HED vessels reduce maintenance and increase stealth The Arctic brings military conflicts. Melting ice caps lead to erosion also geopolitical shift as Russia gain access to both oceans Op s in the Arctic can be managed with mobile microgrids disasters complicate readiness tasking personnel to assist with HADR strain resources planning and training low-carbon tech improve acceptance of NATO HADR in the Mid East, Sahel and Africa groups engage in illegal activities individuals join NSAGs Boko Haram al-Shabab and ISIS Using e v s can support NATO op s in contested environments |
02dc5f420b293061fb84daa95a245741072b64ca5a88feac169720ff6fa75eea | gradual shift avoids link | The counterplan alone facilitates a gradual shift, avoids the link.
Nkwaira and Poll 23 – Professor at the University of South Africa. Former CEO of Impact Africa Investing Academy. Doctor of Business Leadership from the University of South Africa.
the reasonableness in determining capital adequacy would be built on a better determination of a carbon countercyclical buffer Due to current and future stranding, th essence of the framework demonstrates its capacity to aid in financial stability by addressing systemic risk stemming from stranded assets investors’ interest in exposures should be considered the possibility of unexpected devaluations of assets would require that the minimum never be set at 0%. |
01201510a8f09b3a9afd5f9ca84c31272858384c46d61e3feb830678d72c6641 | Fed rate cut recession | ’07 level recession is coming.
Fox 9-19-24, [Matthew Fox, Senior Markets reporter for Business Insider. “The Fed's 50 basis point rate cut won't do anything to stop a recession, economist David Rosenberg says” https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-rosenberg-warns-economic-downturn-2007-fed-rate-cuts-2024-9]//sripad
likening 24 to 07 right before recession so much weakness housing construction industri in recession consumer pull back abruptly job growth lower similar to prior slowdown same language we saw in 07 country in recession right now when we apply data science warning signs out of the bond market more prescient especially at inflection points in cycle de-inversion of the yield curve despite rate cut central bank behind the growth curve |
01a57a3be227b2d8f337f6689066f9fe4b759a5a081786ffd4f12612f8bb2c21 | electricity transport and housing | The term ‘Clean Energy Policy’ requires broad systemic change---that’s key to limits & ground.
Jonas Meckling and Nicholas Goedeking 2023, Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley; Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, “Coalition cascades: The politics of tipping points in clean energy transitions”, July 20, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/psj.12507, accessed 9/29/24, HMc
clean energy policy plays out across several subsystems, including electricity, transport, and housing in shifting interconnected policy subsystems into a new equilibrium requires policy change across subsystems . subsystem interdependencies exist across an array of policy issues gas policy has spillover effects for electricity changes in monetary policy spill over into housing A coordination problem exists if policy change in subsystem A is stymied by a lack of policy change in subsystem B. positive trans-subsystem policy change relates to other types of policy change, yet is distinct from them minor change relates to a change in a subcomponent of the policy subsystem, whereas major change refers to subsystem-wide change Both minor and major policy changes can contribute to policy change but are distinct from policy change that results in systemwide tipping points. |
0088afc20b1ce9735fe8b653f22096b968e0f97a152b6d935e81dcc44cbbf3f1 | Harris economic message to voters | Has flipped script on the ecnomy, but it’s fragile
Knox 8—12 [Olivier Knox, journalist, “Harris Hones Her Economic Message,” U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, 8—12—24, https://www.usnews.com/news/u-s-news-decision-points/articles/2024-08-12/kamala-harris-hones-her-economic-message-to-voters, accessed 8-22-24]
Voters have been sour on Biden economic record But Harris momentum is real , for now she's flipped the script candidate is ahead on the economy |
01701ad9eca26d7022d4573c639efb603e3088deea08b28e5fb37c2c606327c0 | UAV tech global arms race | Extinction
Dr. Michael J. Boyle 13, Professor of Political Science at La Salle University, Former Lecturer in International Relations and Research Fellow in the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at the University of St. Andrews, “The Costs and Consequences of Drone Warfare”, International Affairs, Volume 89, Number 1
76 countries have UAV tech including Russia , China , Pakistan and India A global arms race for drone tech is already under way With demand growing, a number of states have begun the aggressive selling attack drones Great Powers driven by nuclear deterrence overt confrontations between nuclear powers are rare drone surveillance is low cost, and deniable. States engage in ‘salami tactics’ drones erode deterrent relationships between nuclear powers, thus magnifying the risks of a spiral of conflict between them. Drones are prone to accidents and crashes an accident or crash will spiral out of control and lead to an armed confrontation to develop internationally recognized standards and norms ensure their use and sale are , regulated |
0361eb4ff0493751eac0345c926574b65d6e1ea181a60e2ed64d1b5747b46c89 | Algorithms problems humans are unlikely to foresee | 6. Algorithmic contracts are inevitable but uncertain.
Lauren Henry Scholz 17, McConnaughhay and Rissman Professor at the Florida State University College of Law, J.D. from Harvard Law School, “Algorithmic Contracts,” Stanford Technology Law Review, Vol. 20, No. 2, Fall 2017, https://ir.law.fsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1615&context=articles
algorithms creates uncertainty create problems humans are unlikely to foresee Businesses manage their own risks firms poke around looking for patterns once found they operate unlikely using algorithms will change given success uncertainty becomes untenable when many are using algorithms When an algorithm has unpredictable results because a business is not sure what causes positive results business manage internally problem is since algorithms are not operating within anyone’s domain no entity is keeping track of and minimizing risks for unanticipated results that lead to crises nobody understands what went wrong |
00ddd7d09c98183df21425b7f076c332e5665bcc4ed94edae5ffaf4f4a6618f6 | demand effects overwhelm green paradox | Demand effects overwhelm green paradox
Fried et al. ’22 [Stephie Fried, Arizona State University and San Francisco Fed, Kevin Novan, UC-Davis, and William B. Peterman, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, “Climate Policy Transition Risk and the Macroeconomy, 5—13—22, p. 33-35]
climate policy not only alters fossil fuels, but also clean capital that decrease demand reducing emissions Green Paradox argues owners respond by increasing supply even when allow a supply-side response the demand-side dominates If there is no carbon tax then demand would increase |
035dd878a8e3c79e0c1e711c623450c044bbc834691a897431ed344b9f40521f | president refuse money | Trump’s budget freeze and nominees implode Congressional stability, triggers massive controversy.
Cama and Picon 1/31 [Timothy Cama and Andres Picon are reporters for E&E News by Politico. “The fight over spending just got a lot more complicated.” 1-31-25. https://www.eenews.net/articles/the-fight-over-spending-just-got-a-lot-more-complicated/ GMU NR]
Constitutional crisis At the core of controversy is a dispute likely to play throughout Trump’s time in office whether the president can refuse money for programs he doesn’t like Trump got in trouble for impounding funds which led to his impeachment The president ran against Impoundment Control Act |
0392b6eac3a3813c2957dff8c220671bb2f9e3728282dbdd82ed603697b21a6b | Ervin 2020 | ‘Adopt’ means to create an official, final rule.
Ervin 20 – Sam J, a North Carolina lawyer and jurist who served on the North Carolina Supreme Court from 2015 to 2022. He previously served as a state Utilities Commissioner and as a judge of the North Carolina Court of Appeals. “Cabarrus County Board of Education v. Department of State Treasurer”, Supreme Court of North Carolina, 04-03-2020
adopt explicitly defined to take final action to create amend, or repeal 'adopt' has the same meaning any time 'adopt' is used it requires an associated rule |
0289920109b266009f27090061dd1d484d7b6e634f44a93739939959cf8ba678 | James K. Boyce 23 | The plan rebates enough money to lower-income households to receive extra money over their energy bills, middle-income breaks even, and wealthy households pay more
James K. Boyce 23 is an author, economist, and senior fellow at the Political Economy Research Institute of the University of Massachusetts Amherst. He is the recipient of the 2017 Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Thought, and has written for Harper’s, Scientific American, Politico, The New York Times, and numerous scholarly journals. Advanced Science Journal, “Carbon pricing is not at odds with environmental justice,” 3-2-2023, https://www.advancedsciencenews.com/carbon-pricing-is-not-at-odds-with-environmental-justice/, DOA: 10-21-24, lmc
lower-income households spend a larger share of their income on fuels even though wealthier households consume far more crucial difference In the case of carbon pricing the extra money paid by consumers does not end up in the profits of fossil fuel corporations Instead the revenue goes to the government which can choose to recycle the money straight back to the public Returning the revenue as dividends reverse the regressive impact lower-income households will get back more than they spend in higher fuel prices middle-income households will break even and wealthy households, will pay more than they get back |
0228dc657a1d98d86b99f44bb99f8a406b4fb626524efc5b3dbc0ad699cf9e9c | DOD tech mission driven | 3. MISSION DISTORTION. The plan injects “clean energy” as a new agency-wide mission. That restructures the entire DOD’s decision calculus.
Robyn '22-- Dr. Robyn is a public policy expert who writes and consults on policy issues related to energy, transportation, and telecommunications (Dorothy Robyn; "Mission, Money, and Process Makeover: How Federal Procurement Can Catalyze Clean Energy Investment and Innovation"; 08-15-2022; https://itif.org/publications/2022/08/15/mission-money-and-process-makeover-how-federal-procurement-can-catalyze-clean-energy-investment-and-innovation/; NC)
DOD tech is mission driven appropriations follow mission agencies exist to carry out specific missions which have deep roots Everything its budget , organization , staffing , and culture is to perform DOD has been especially effective in mission-enhancing innovation sustainable procurement are not mission aligned clean is not the mission DOD’s record on renewable is an example bases depend on the grid generation enables to maintain power DOD takes seriously renewable energy because energy- resilient bases is key to performance |
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